Europe at War

Started by Que, February 20, 2022, 12:59:09 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

amw

I am personally rather surprised at the extent to which almost everyone I know is uncritically buying into war propaganda (which I guess is partly because most of the people I know are either militantly pro-Ukraine or militantly pro-Russia).

For years I've usually been the one having to point out that propaganda is an essential weapon of war, and that no statements from any of the governments or their respective media arms involved in a war can ever be taken at face value. I nevertheless see people not only accepting propaganda but arguing that it is necessary to do so, even if one knows that it's false, in order to help one's "side" win.

Here in the USA we mostly wind up hearing about people buying into Russian propaganda and the efforts of those around them to dissuade them, since of course we're expected to buy into Ukrainian propaganda instead. Therefore a lot of the Russian propaganda claims are already well known and debunked. (e.g., Nazis in the Ukrainian government, 15,000+ Ukrainian soldiers KIA, Ukraine having biological weapons, the inflated claims of Russian advances, etc.) It's also relatively easy to spot Ukrainian propaganda claims—anything that can only be sourced back to a Ukrainian government agency or a media outlet used by them as a proxy (some examples: Russia bombing the Holocaust memorial in Kiev, Russia bombing the Enerhodar nuclear power plant, Russia executing American journalists, and of course the usual inflated kill counts). Nonetheless, these propaganda claims continue to blanket the social media airspace as a complicated form of electronic warfare. This may even be the intent—intelligence agencies are most likely intentionally releasing false information in the hope that seeding social media with chaff will conceal actual troop movements, capture or loss of territory, and other such information they wish to conceal from the opposing military. The strange thing is seeing people who were media literate 10, 20, 30 (etc) years ago, such as close family friends, buy into it completely, just because this time it's on social media instead of on TV or in the newspaper.

(I can at least get through to my parents, since they were both on the ground for Bosnia coverage and thus know firsthand that no media source is trustworthy, and my dad is also somewhat of a Russia/Ukraine expert—which, he often complains, has only made him extremely unpopular among both Russians and Ukrainians. But it feels a bit odd to be the one trying to keep the peace among the family friends who are like "well, doesn't Putin have a point really?" and the ones who are like "we need to send Navy Seals to Ukraine immediately, damn the torpedoes!")

Quote from: MusicTurner on March 13, 2022, 12:19:54 PM
Things can happen fast. Now Russia has officially asked China for military equipment assistance in the Ukraine war. One would assume that this will result in some important signalling from China relatively soon.
Interestingly China has so far been the most neutral of the world powers on this conflict, despite its ostensible alliance with Russia—and I think it'll stay that way. It has all the leverage to end (or prolong) the conflict, and is presumably choosing to prolong it right now because that serves its economic and political interests. But I don't think it's an exaggeration to say Xi holds, by some distance, the best hand in this round of the great game.

Que

Quote from: MusicTurner on March 13, 2022, 12:19:54 PM
Things can happen fast. Now Russia has officially asked China for military equipment assistance in the Ukraine war. One would assume that this will result in some important signalling from China relatively soon.

So now Russia not only needs China for access to funds, for economic support/trade, but also for military assistance?

The plot thickens.... and Putin looks more desperate by the day...

drogulus

      I haven't allowed anything to gain traction. You didn't hear anything about the "Ghost of Kyiv" from me. I'd love me a "Ghost" if it was a real pilot and plane. It's not. What's real is that some pilots have shot down Russian planes and having a Ukrainian ace is a good bit of morale boosting propaganda.

     Casualties: The high figure is something like 12,000 Russian dead. Responsible sources say it's more like 4,000.

     An American journalist has been killed recently. Some journalists have reported Russians firing at them.

     There are simulations on the internet of AAA and shoulder fired missiles shooting down Russian planes and helos. Some people might think these are war footage.

     People who have cognitive weaknesses in normal times won't do better in abnormal times.

     What would increased domination by America look like? Would there be pharmaceutical ads on TV all over the world? Would people go to giant for-profit churches in huge numbers?
Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64; rv:136.0) Gecko/20100101 Firefox/136.0
      
Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64; rv:128.0) Gecko/20100101 Firefox/128.0

Mullvad 14.5.5

Madiel

Quote from: Yabetz on March 13, 2022, 01:55:52 PM
I couldn't agree more. Social media...egh, what can I say. There's also the fact that what we see on social media is carefully curated. Some things, true or not, are allowed to gain traction while other things, true or not, are squelched.

It is not carefully curated. It is driven by algorithms. There's an important difference.
Nobody has to apologise for using their brain.

drogulus

Quote from: Yabetz on March 13, 2022, 02:49:38 PM
Non sequitur.

     So Europe will experience a non sequitur? It sounds horrible.
Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64; rv:136.0) Gecko/20100101 Firefox/136.0
      
Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64; rv:128.0) Gecko/20100101 Firefox/128.0

Mullvad 14.5.5

Karl Henning

Quote from: Madiel on March 13, 2022, 03:07:17 PM
It is not carefully curated. It is driven by algorithms. There's an important difference.

Though that seemed obvious enough to me, thanks for pointing it out.
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

amw

Quote from: drogulus on March 13, 2022, 02:30:42 PM
      I haven't allowed anything to gain traction. You didn't hear anything about the "Ghost of Kyiv" from me. I'd love me a "Ghost" if it was a real pilot and plane. It's not. What's real is that some pilots have shot down Russian planes and having a Ukrainian ace is a good bit of morale boosting propaganda.
I do think this is part of the problem though—people early on who believed that footage from a video game was in fact a Ukrainian ace pilot shooting down Russian fighters seem to be more easily convinced that if the USA sent in its own, much more modern fighter jets, they'd just shoot down all the Russians and institute a "no-fly zone" and the war would end immediately. This probably contributes to why Americans don't seem to realise that a no-fly zone over Ukraine would cause all-out Russia/America war.

QuoteThe high figure is something like 12,000 Russian dead. Responsible sources say it's more like 4,000.
Even the "responsible" sources tend to be foreign intelligence agencies, which necessarily don't have the most complete picture. But I think they also tend to be used to overshadow the extent of the humanitarian catastrophe.

For example, one of the more reliable NGOs currently active in Mariupol (the International Red Cross) recently estimated, based on reports collected from first responders throughout the city, 2,000+ dead civilians and 125,000+ who had fled the city through Russian-controlled "humanitarian corridors"—more than a quarter of the city's population. Over two weeks of fighting, that's ~150 civilian deaths per day, which is a shockingly high number for any conflict, comparable to the US/Peshmerga/Iraqi Army joint assault on Mosul in 2016-2017 (~40,000 dead civilians over the course of nine months). But if one believes 12,000 Russian troops (or even only 4,000) were killed during the same period, well then, clearly the city's inhabitants are putting up heroic resistance and the Russian offensive will be broken any day now, right? Alternatively, if one believes 15,000 Ukrainian troops were killed (or even only 7,000), well, clearly the ICRC is lying and all those dead civilians were secret Azov Battalion militants. Either way, it serves not only to create complacency, but also to continue to desensitise people to mass death on an industrial scale.

(Of course, arguably COVID already did most of the work in that respect.)

drogulus


     
Quote from: amw on March 13, 2022, 04:13:03 PM
I do think this is part of the problem though—people early on who believed that footage from a video game was in fact a Ukrainian ace pilot shooting down Russian fighters seem to be more easily convinced that if the USA sent in its own, much more modern fighter jets, they'd just shoot down all the Russians and institute a "no-fly zone" and the war would end immediately. This probably contributes to why Americans don't seem to realise that a no-fly zone over Ukraine would cause all-out Russia/America war.
Even the "responsible" sources tend to be foreign intelligence agencies, which necessarily don't have the most complete picture. But I think they also tend to be used to overshadow the extent of the humanitarian catastrophe.

For example, one of the more reliable NGOs currently active in Mariupol (the International Red Cross) recently estimated, based on reports collected from first responders throughout the city, 2,000+ dead civilians and 125,000+ who had fled the city through Russian-controlled "humanitarian corridors"—more than a quarter of the city's population. Over two weeks of fighting, that's ~150 civilian deaths per day, which is a shockingly high number for any conflict, comparable to the US/Peshmerga/Iraqi Army joint assault on Mosul in 2016-2017 (~40,000 dead civilians over the course of nine months). But if one believes 12,000 Russian troops (or even only 4,000) were killed during the same period, well then, clearly the city's inhabitants are putting up heroic resistance and the Russian offensive will be broken any day now, right? Alternatively, if one believes 15,000 Ukrainian troops were killed (or even only 7,000), well, clearly the ICRC is lying and all those dead civilians were secret Azov Battalion militants. Either way, it serves not only to create complacency, but also to continue to desensitise people to mass death on an industrial scale.

(Of course, arguably COVID already did most of the work in that respect.)

     This doesn't seem to be a response to what I was talking about. I don't see desensitization to mass death. Most people are outraged by precisely that.
Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64; rv:136.0) Gecko/20100101 Firefox/136.0
      
Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64; rv:128.0) Gecko/20100101 Firefox/128.0

Mullvad 14.5.5

amw

Quote from: drogulus on March 13, 2022, 04:37:14 PM
This doesn't seem to be a response to what I was talking about. I don't see desensitization to mass death. Most people are outraged by precisely that.
Perhaps that is a problem that's more pertinent in my own social circles then.

drogulus

Quote from: Yabetz on March 13, 2022, 05:03:43 PM
No, your "American dominance" statement was a non sequitur. Given the morass that is the US at this point, less US dominance and less US emulation would probably be best for everybody.

     I was responding to:

Quote from: MusicTurner on March 13, 2022, 10:25:37 AM

I'm not sure, that I agree with the thoughts here about Europe experiencing increased US domination in the future, though; the EU is generally striving for more independence.


     I agree about the not sureness. What would such a thing be like? That's what I meant.

Quote from: amw on March 13, 2022, 05:11:10 PM
Perhaps that is a problem that's more pertinent in my own social circles then.

     I'm not social. My feelings about mass civilian casualties as a deliberate war strategy may be more idiosyncratic than I had assumed.
Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64; rv:136.0) Gecko/20100101 Firefox/136.0
      
Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64; rv:128.0) Gecko/20100101 Firefox/128.0

Mullvad 14.5.5

Madiel

Quote from: Yabetz on March 13, 2022, 05:00:12 PM
Algorithms that always seem to go in the direction of a desired narrative. Uh, no. Algorithms don't just appear from the rings of Saturn, anyway.

The fact that you don't really understand algorithms and that you have a healthy dose of confirmation bias in your mindset doesn't alter the point. Social media engines like Facebook simply do not work by having a human being sitting there making the kinds of decisions you're talking about. The sheer volume of material doesn't permit that.

The notorious attempts to influence the 2016 US election didn't work by the kind of conscious processes you seem to have in mind. They worked by people knowing how to play the system. Which is exactly what happens now. The fact that some people know how to work Facebook algorithms to achieve virality for what they want to share is completely different from someone at Facebook headquarters planning it all out.  There is certainly manipulation, but you're confused about its source and methodology.
Nobody has to apologise for using their brain.

Que

Japan got the memo... The fact that the possibility of an invasion (of Japan) is even mentioned, means that the new reality has sunken in. I expect that Japan will start to rearm soon.

Analysis from CNN's Emiko Jozuka and Blake Essig

Japan has backed its condemnation of war in Ukraine with sanctions on Russian officials and oligarchs, but experts say they're not the only audience for Tokyo's outrage — China is meant to get the message, too.

Since Moscow attacked Ukraine, commentators have drawn comparisons between Russia's actions and China's stated ambition to seek the "reunification" of Taiwan with the mainland.

For Japan, support for Ukraine serves a dual purpose, according to Yoko Iwama, an international relations and security expert at the National Graduate Institute of Policy Studies.

"The purpose of Japan's response is to send a message that we will be ready and we will resist if there's an invasion (of Japanese territory), that we will not allow the borders to be changed by force," said Iwama.
"We don't want a real war, the objective is political -- that China is persuaded from an aggressive act like the one that Putin has taken in the last several days and weeks."

Mandryka

Quote from: MusicTurner on March 13, 2022, 12:19:54 PM
Things can happen fast. Now Russia has officially asked China for military equipment assistance in the Ukraine war. One would assume that this will result in some important signalling from China relatively soon.

A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson has said assertions from US officials that Russia asked Beijing for military equipment for its campaign in Ukraine were "disinformation" from the US.

(Not surprisingly IMO.)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/14/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news-talks-resume-blockade-black-sea-coast-zelenskiy-putin-live
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Andante

Quote from: Que on March 13, 2022, 01:26:37 AM
I don't think anyone is seriously contemplating that. As a Dutchman, I would have throw away all British (multiple sea wars), French (one attempted invasion and one succesfull one) and German (invasion in WW II) music as well.

Would Russia burn all its Rembrandts because the Dutch gave weapons to the Ukranian govt? I hope not...

I was using it as an example.
Andante always true to his word has kicked the Marijuana soaked bot with its addled brain in to touch.

MusicTurner

Quote from: Mandryka on March 14, 2022, 12:53:22 AM
A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson has said assertions from US officials that Russia asked Beijing for military equipment for its campaign in Ukraine were "disinformation" from the US.

(Not surprisingly IMO.)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/14/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news-talks-resume-blockade-black-sea-coast-zelenskiy-putin-live

Yes. It will be interesting, if China can keep the more or less neutral approach - for how long. There'll be concrete steps and choices, that are necessary.

Florestan

Quote from: drogulus on March 13, 2022, 02:30:42 PM
       What would increased domination by America look like?

the Americans will kidnap the mayors of Paris, Berlin and Amsterdam and install puppets in their stead for the desovietization of EU.  ;D
"Ja, sehr komisch, hahaha,
ist die Sache, hahaha,
drum verzeihn Sie, hahaha,
wenn ich lache, hahaha! "

BasilValentine

Quote from: drogulus on March 13, 2022, 07:07:23 PM
I'm not social. My feelings about mass civilian casualties as a deliberate war strategy may be more idiosyncratic than I had assumed.

Not idiosyncratic at all. It's appalling, barbaric, and a sign of incompetence and corruption. The powers that be in Russia treat the lives and safety of their own troops with equal casualness and callousness. About what one should expect from the administration of criminal sociopaths.

drogulus


     I feel the same way about war propaganda as I do about the largely pseudo-problem of media bias. Either one can read through the biases or one can't. If you can't there's little to be done. If you can there's little you need to do that you aren't already doing.
Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64; rv:136.0) Gecko/20100101 Firefox/136.0
      
Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64; rv:128.0) Gecko/20100101 Firefox/128.0

Mullvad 14.5.5

Mirror Image

Those members here who live in Poland, Czechia and Romania. Get ready. That's all I'll say.

Mirror Image

A rather interesting article:

https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/

Surprised by some of the results. Didn't know France had that many nuclear warheads. Also, I thought Germany had some of their own.