Europe at War

[Todd]

Objectives the Russians have (objectively) fulfilled include reopening the water pipeline from the Dnipro to Crimea, establishing a land corridor from Crimea to Donetsk and gaining total control of the Sea of Azov. Perhaps they have many more goals as well, but those are the ones that were quickly and efficiently achieved within the first week or so of the war. I don't think one can start saying that they're losing until those achievements are reversed.

Has Russia published a list of their actual objectives and strategy in Ukraine, ranging from best case outcomes to acceptable outcomes?  As far as I can tell, press outlets and the internet contain a lot of conjecture, and that's it. I know Jake Sullivan just offered his assessment, but I suspect he is politically biased.

[Mandryka]

Or maybe not. I went looking for information about this channel that you're fond of. The funniest description was " the kind of people who are generally "unheard" because people edge away from them at parties."

A quick look at the front page of their website threw up several articles about what's wrong with "The Left" and some favourite targets about university education and trans people. The origins as a site privately funded by a conservative backer are pretty apparent.

Yes, but I still think it's worth hearing.

[amw]

Has Russia published a list of their actual objectives and strategy in Ukraine, ranging from best case outcomes to acceptable outcomes?  As far as I can tell, press outlets and the internet contain a lot of conjecture, and that's it. I know Jake Sullivan just offered his assessment, but I suspect he is politically biased.

Not as far as I know. Where I wrote "Russian objectives" one should read "things that have happened which can be speculatively considered beneficial to Russia".

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

Yes, but I still think it's worth hearing.

They publish some interesting but very oddball stuff at times. Here for instance is the strangest thing I've read recently, Marxist literary critic Terry Eagleton free-associating about order, chaos, and Putin:

https://unherd.com/2022/03/vladimir-putins-war-on-chaos/

To bring things back to the personal level. We have a friend, originally from Russia, who was planning to get married to his Ukrainian bride in her homeland. That was the plan, anyway. Instead, they got married last week over Zoom, because the bride is now a refugee in Warsaw.

Also, a Russian lady whom we know (originally from Siberia) is now concerned about her Ukrainian husband. He went to Europe supposedly to do humanitarian work, but she is actually afraid that he's going there to fight and didn't want to tell her that.

[drogulus]

     The effect of losses on the combat capability of the invading forces was not invented for the present case. By the most conservative estimates Russian forces are near or past the 10% mark in killed, wounded or missing. The true figure is higher by all estimates including the leaked Russian one.

     Regarding the effectiveness and consequences of the sanctions, the article bypasses the main point, which is to cripple the Russian war machine and bring forward the day that Russian soldiers can rejoin their families dead or alive.

     If we didn't use sanctions for Ukraine, what point would there be to "reserving" them for a hypothetical Chinese action? Without the present actions China would be absolutely correct to assume that nothing would be done about an invasion of Taiwan. Indeed it would be almost shameful if they didn't invade soon, before China no longer could muster the strength to do so, a factor that preys on Chinese minds.

     NATO turned out to be stronger than its enemies hoped, and American leadership by a President with a foreign policy orientation surprised many people, possibly including myself to a degree.

[Todd]

Where I wrote "Russian objectives" one should read "things that have happened which can be speculatively considered beneficial to Russia".

Some people opine with much greater certitude about Russian objectives.  I admit I do not know what Putin and Russia are trying to achieve with this war at this time.  Reconstitution of the Tsarist or Soviet Empire seems a bit far-fetched to me, for instance. 

[drogulus]

     Putin can't persuade Belarus to support him with troops. Why not? One imagines Luka saying "hey, I have to live here!" or the like. The Belorussian armed forces are no doubt riddled with people who would dearly prefer to fight Russians than Ukrainians. Some of them are fighting Russians now alongside their Ukrainian hosts.

     Many Russians would probably agree about how far fetched Putin's dream is, especially now. But military analysts can understand objectives and read maps. Russian military doctrine is also studied. I don't have any trouble understanding what is said, or handling disagreements.

     Putin brought Chechens to Ukraine. I'm watching them attack Russians on CNN. allahu akbar!

[Herman]

Or maybe not. I went looking for information about this channel that you're fond of. The funniest description was " the kind of people who are generally "unheard" because people edge away from them at parties."

A quick look at the front page of their website threw up several articles about what's wrong with "The Left" and some favourite targets about university education and trans people. The origins as a site privately funded by a conservative backer are pretty apparent.

Yes, it's pretty transparent.

[JBS]

If Putin actually winds up getting most of the Kadyrovtsy killed by constantly sending them to the front lines, I guess at least we can say he successfully denazified Chechnya.

I think Drogulus is referring to some video showing individual Chechens who are fighting on the Ukrainian side.

Given his actions over the years I think we can be sure, after all, that some Chechens would be eager to de-Kadyrov Chechnya.

[The new erato]

Some people opine with much greater certitude about Russian objectives.  I admit I do not know what Putin and Russia are trying to achieve with this war at this time.  Reconstitution of the Tsarist or Soviet Empire seems a bit far-fetched to me, for instance.

I tend to agree, but 10% of his soldiers dying in a quagmire certainly weren't amongst them.

[Mandryka]

I tend to agree, but 10% of his soldiers dying in a quagmire certainly weren't amongst them.

We don't know is what level of losses  the Russians had planned for.

[Mandryka]

Yes, it's pretty transparent.

The fact that Terry Eagleton has written an article for them (in Archaic Torso's link) should make you think twice about dismissing them as some sort of right wing extreme group! Eagleton used to be a Marxist. But my real reason for posting is that I had assumed the article was by a poor undergraduate when I read this

For Immanuel Kant, probably the greatest of modern philosophers, you should be moral because it is moral to be so.

As far as I know, in the Grundlegung, this isn't true - Kant thinks you should be moral because it is rational to be so. Am I wrong?

[MusicTurner]

Russian early losses have already been extremely high by comparison to other recent wars by major powers, including the 10 years in Afghanistan (where they lost 15,000). That's also why leading figures are being sacked (and more than just the first reports about it), and when 6 generals were killed, because they were close to the front trying to steer and motivate, everybody agrees that this is highly unusual.

Also, they've excluded general mobilization so far, but some think they'll have to start that anyway.

I saw expert predictions before the invasion, as far as I remember the maximum Russian losses in a very prolonged war were around 10,000. But so far it's been only 4 weeks of war, and that's apparently the number now.

[MusicTurner]

The Russians have tried to take Kyiv since the beginning of the invasion and expected to do it in a matter of a few days. The prime objective was to depose the government in its seat. It's ridiculous to say they haven't tried just because they have as yet so spectacularly failed to achieve their objectives.

They've been hitting Russia's main armored forces for weeks. What war are you following?

"Hasn't gained quite as much as it was hoping to?" Oh please! What an absurd understatement. They've been humiliated.

Even the notorious, Russian, former commander Strelkov/Girkin agrees with those failures and errors in relation to the mentioned initial plans, in a long interview.

However he suggests attacking and taking  all of Ukraine, including Lviv, because then Russia would be able to dictate the terms and the future completely; he doesn't specify how.

[Florestan]

    The Belorussian armed forces are no doubt riddled with people who would dearly prefer to fight Russians than Ukrainians.

No doubt? On what facts do you base this conviction?

[Que]

I wonder when Belorussian forces invade the western part of Ukraine if NATO would consider bombing them (on Ukranian soil), either from the air or with long range missiles? If this would be done at the request of Ukraine in assistance of the defence of its territory, would be perfectly legal and it doesn't involve a direct confrontation with Russian forces.

I would be tempted....

[Todd]

I wonder when Belorussian forces invade the western part of Ukraine if NATO would consider bombing them (on Ukranian soil), either from the air or with long range missiles? If this would be done at the request of Ukraine in assistance of the defence of its territory, would be perfectly legal and it doesn't involve a direct confrontation with Russian forces.

I would be tempted....

There is profound danger in this logic.

[Florestan]

it doesn't involve a direct confrontation with Russian forces.

If Belarus invades Ukraine --- and there is a big if here --- they would do so at the request of, and as an ally of, Russia. What reason would the latter have for not considering an attack on their ally as an attack on themselves and react accordingly?

[The new erato]

OTOH Lukashenko might need his forces to keep domestic control.

[MusicTurner]

Oligarch-politician Chubais' resignation and leave for Turkey, known today, and the oligarch Deripaska calling the war 'madness', are the highlights so far as regards elite criticism of Putin's war.

Members of Putin's ruling party in the Duma, all belonging to the society elite as well, have now been informed in writing to ask for permission from the leadership to any travel abroad ...

Curiously, Shoigu hasn't been seen in public for 11 days (possibly due to health); and Gerasimov and the extremist National Guard boss are invisible too.