Europe at War

[Todd]

U.S. Threat to Sanction China Is Spooking Other Nations in Asia

Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi has privately expressed concern about the U.S. threats of secondary sanctions against China because leaders in Jakarta see Beijing's stance on the war as neutral, according to a person familiar with the situation, who asked not to be identified.

While Indonesia is planning to welcome Russia to the G-20 summit, the person said, leaders in Southeast Asia's biggest economy are concerned the U.S. will increase pressure to abandon the country's non-aligned policy...

The uncertainty underscores the risk that the war in Ukraine will accelerate fissures in the global economy centered on national security risks over supply chains, advanced technology and the personal data of millions of citizens. Although the U.S. has yet to specify what business activity with Russia would trigger secondary sanctions, the frequent use of such measures against China in the past few years poses a significant risk for exporting nations reliant on the U.S. and European markets.

You are either with us or against us.


More pressure on the existing international system:

Russia's Putin gets Chinese backing to stay in G20

WTO trade talks in disarray amid Ukraine tensions - sources

Putin says Russia will start selling gas to 'unfriendly' countries in roubles


While a regional hegemon continues to expand influence:

Iran and Syria to bolster ties after Ukraine crisis

[Que]

There is profound danger in this logic.

If Belarus invades Ukraine --- and there is a big if here --- they would do so at the request of, and as an ally of, Russia. What reason would the latter have for not considering an attack on their ally as an attack on themselves and react accordingly?

So any ally of Russia has a free pass to invade the Ukraine?

I see the danger, but where do we draw the line? When is enough enough?
Putin keeps pushing the boundaries again and again. It seems inevitable that the western allies will have to draw the line at some point. In my estimation it is actually better and less dangerous to pick a suitable moment soon than wait till the last moment.

The alternative is to decide not to militarily intervene under any circumstance, no matter what Russia and its allies do...

[drogulus]

No doubt? On what facts do you base this conviction?

     I have no doubt that the Belorussians fighting Russians now in Ukraine are representative of many more. More conjectural is the fact that the armed forces have not participated even though Putin desperately needs them. Luka has also said Belarus won't send troops. Then there is his map, his wonderful map featuring Moldova as a target of Russian operations.

     By itself each indicator is less than decisive. Together they are. Russia, not Ukraine, is feared and hated. Luka "mistakenly" showed the world that Putin intends far more than regime change in Kyiv. That's probably more confirmation of what we know than we need, but is nevertheless good to have.

[Todd]

So any ally of Russia has a free pass to invade the Ukraine?

I see the danger, but where do we draw the line? When is enough enough?
Putin keeps pushing the boundaries again and again. It seems inevitable that the western allies will have to draw the line at some point. In my estimation it is actually better and less dangerous to pick a suitable moment soon than wait till the last moment.

NATO, meaning the US, is not obligated to defend Ukraine.  There is no line to be drawn. 

The alternative is to decide not to militarily intervene under any circumstance, no matter what Russia and its allies do...

There are other options, but ultimately, there is no compelling reason for NATO, meaning the US, to become militarily involved in Ukraine.

[Johnnie Burgess]

NATO, meaning the US, is not obligated to defend Ukraine.  There is no line to be drawn. 


There are other options, but ultimately, there is no compelling reason for NATO, meaning the US, to become militarily involved in Ukraine.

Has to be the US, will not be the troops of the Netherlands running to the rescue.

[drogulus]

     NATO is drawing its own lines on the level of assistance it provides. The most important countries IME are the US and Poland, the latter being the most important front line state in this war.

[Que]

Has to be the US, will not be the troops of the Netherlands running to the rescue.

The disdain is palpable. But being born as a citizen of a superpower is not a matter of personal merit.

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

As far as I know, in the Grundlegung, this isn't true - Kant thinks you should be moral because it is rational to be so. Am I wrong?

Yeah, you're right. It's pretty basic - I have no idea why Eagleton would commit such a tautology. BTW I think he's always been a Marxist, no "used to be" (Eagleton I mean, not Kant).

[Johnnie Burgess]

The disdain is palpable. But being born as a citizen of a superpower is not a matter of personal merit.

It is not the job of the US to fight in every war.

[Harry]

It is not the job of the US to fight in every war.

Another very stupid remark, better think twice before posting such a blatant nonsense.

[Johnnie Burgess]

Another very stupid remark, better think twice before posting such a blatant nonsense.

Why is stupid. The US has spent too much money and lost too many US soldiers lives in the last 20 years.  It is time for others to take up that cost.

[LKB]

Some interesting reading.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/22/alexander-dugin-author-putin-deady-playbook/

[BasilValentine]

So any ally of Russia has a free pass to invade the Ukraine?

I see the danger, but where do we draw the line? When is enough enough?
Putin keeps pushing the boundaries again and again. It seems inevitable that the western allies will have to draw the line at some point. In my estimation it is actually better and less dangerous to pick a suitable moment soon than wait till the last moment.

The alternative is to decide not to militarily intervene under any circumstance, no matter what Russia and its allies do...

The line is the border of any NATO country. The US non-intervention in Afghanistan in the 80s has retrospectively been judged a great success. Perhaps this one will as well. The rapid fracturing of Putin's croneysphere seems a hopeful sign. Perhaps someone else will draw a line in Moscow?

[drogulus]

     Ukraine is paying a massive cost to defend Europe by defending itself. Helping them the way we are serves a broad set of priorities that are widely agreed on, especially after Biden insisted on wide agreement.

[drogulus]

     As I expected the Uke counterattack is going slow. They don't have enough troops, planes, drones etc to advance on all fronts. Still, there have been successes.

[drogulus]

     The US TrumPutinist opposition is focusing on a crucial weakness in the case for war, namely Hunter Biden and his notorious laptop.

[Florestan]

I see the danger, but where do we draw the line? When is enough enough?

The line has already been drawn by NATO: aid and assist Ukraine in every possible way save military intervention, which means war with Russia, which means nuclear war, which means the end of the world.

[drogulus]

The line has already been drawn by NATO: aid and assist Ukraine in every possible way save military intervention, which means war with Russia, which means nuclear war, which means the end of the world.

     Yes, and it should be clear that NATO is being conservative by not pushing MIGs out the door right away. I would be interested to know what Biden will discuss with the Poles. I mean, I wouldn't want to speculate.

[Que]

The line has already been drawn by NATO: aid and assist Ukraine in every possible way save military intervention, which means war with Russia, which means nuclear war, which means the end of the world.

You (and others) are right.    I hope Lukashenko thinks better of it, though he is doomed anyway.

[Que]

Why is stupid. The US has spent too much money and lost too many US soldiers lives in the last 20 years.  It is time for others to take up that cost.

I'd wish that the US wouldn't have fought the Afghanistan and the Iraq Wars, because those are the wars you are referring to. An incredible waste of human lives, American and otherwise, a waste of US tax payer's money and with many disastrous geopolitical effects. Amongst which an erosion of the international mechanisms that kept Russia and China in check.