Europe at War

[Todd]

Western diplomats court India over Ukraine but fail to find love

And the US is none too happy about it:

U.S. Tells India There Will Be 'Consequences' for Dodging Russia Sanctions

If both China and India choose to "dodge" sanctions, whatever that means exactly, one must wonder if the US would place sanctions on the second and seventh largest economies at the same time. 

[Que]

Key Takeaways

We now assess that Russia has revised its campaign plan in Ukraine after the failure of operations to seize Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities throughout March.
The Kremlin's claims that Russia's main objective has been eastern Ukraine throughout the war are false and intended to obfuscate the failure of Russia's initial campaign.
Russia's main effort is now concentrated on eastern Ukraine. Russian forces seek to capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
Russian forces will likely take Mariupol in the coming days but continue to suffer heavy casualties.

https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-1

[Todd]

The Kremlin's claims that Russia's main objective has been eastern Ukraine throughout the war are false and intended to obfuscate the failure of Russia's initial campaign.

I'm curious how the American Enterprise Institute knows this with such certainty.  It's a possibility. 

[amw]

Russian forces will likely take Mariupol in the coming days but continue to suffer heavy casualties.

The AEI is wrong on at least this point: the mayor of Mariupol declared that the city had fallen on March 27, and Russia declared a unilateral humanitarian ceasefire on March 28. There apparently remain a handful of Ukrainian forces holed up in the Azovstal plant who continue to fight an insurgency—largely because Russia is apparently not accepting surrenders, and its stated intention is to kill every Ukrainian defender of the city—but Russia effectively holds all of the populated areas of the city and is evacuating large portions of its population eastwards into Russian territory. Shelling & missile attacks there have reportedly ceased already.

I recall AEI to be a generally pro-war think tank with a conservative bias. Most American military/foreign policy think tanks, regardless of political affiliation, also have longstanding biases regarding Russian culture as a whole, including claims that Russians are somehow genetically predisposed to be violent, perennially duplicitous authoritarians who require dictatorial leadership and have no ability to comprehend modern life; the kind of thing that would be universally condemned as racism if they said it about any other ethnic group. Anyone who claims that Russians may be rational political actors with logical justifications for their actions receives angry pushback from think tankers. This may affect their assessment here; for instance, I do think it's possible that Russia is withdrawing from the Kiev axis in response to Ukraine's promise not to join NATO and maintain neutrality, either as a gesture of good faith or to satisfy a counter-demand made by Ukraine during the Istanbul peace talks. But again we'll see how things play out in the near future, I assume.

[JBS]

I recall AEI to be a generally pro-war think tank with a conservative bias. Most American military/foreign policy think tanks, regardless of political affiliation, also have longstanding biases regarding Russian culture as a whole, including claims that Russians are somehow genetically predisposed to be violent, perennially duplicitous authoritarians who require dictatorial leadership and have no ability to comprehend modern life; the kind of thing that would be universally condemned as racism if they said it about any other ethnic group. Anyone who claims that Russians may be rational political actors with logical justifications for their actions receives angry pushback from think tankers. This may affect their assessment here; for instance, I do think it's possible that Russia is withdrawing from the Kiev axis in response to Ukraine's promise not to join NATO and maintain neutrality, either as a gesture of good faith or to satisfy a counter-demand made by Ukraine during the Istanbul peace talks. But again we'll see how things play out in the near future, I assume.

As far as I know, no one considers AEI to be anything other than a conservative think tank, so "conservative bias" is an understatement.

I do need to point out that at least from the end of the USSR through the annexation of Crimea, Western policy was based on the assumption that Russia was quite capable of merging into the Western order of liberal democracy and shaking off Putinist authoritarianism.

[amw]

Another interesting potential explanation I've come across is that Russia in fact has no central objective; individual generals were kept in the dark about the overall battle plan (if there even was one) and forced to compete for resources; and that this was largely because Putin/the Russian government had limited trust in the military and was paranoid about information leaks. Isolating one's own military commanders and limiting the amount of information they have access to is a pretty common tactic in fascist and far-right states worldwide, apparently. While I obviously have even less idea as to whether this is true, it would certainly explain the long disappearance of Russia's Minister of Defense during the war (Putin being afraid that his authority would be overruled), the large number of Russian generals who have been reported killed (and not proven to be by Ukrainian action specifically), and the lack of logistical support. An element in play here could be the purging of dissident elements in the Russian military itself.

None of this is to say that the official Western explanation for the war to date is inaccurate; there are just a number of alternate possibilities that have been floated by well-informed people and I'm usually inclined to distrust the West on principle. I do not know enough to commit to one particular explanation. Nor, I think, does anyone else on here.

I do need to point out that at least from the end of the USSR through the annexation of Crimea, Western policy was based on the assumption that Russia was quite capable of merging into the Western order of liberal democracy and shaking off Putinist authoritarianism.

That's true—although I do believe conservative think tanks disagreed with this point on principle. (Interestingly that's actually been reversed in recent years with conservative politicians adopting increasingly pro-Russian viewpoints even as the mainstream liberal order reverts to the old conservative position of the 90s-00s.)

[drogulus]

     German TV says Russia will continue delivery of gas. Rubles will not be demanded immediately. Also, Germany will provide 58 tanks to Ukraine. Actually they are IFVs, armored infantry vehicles from the old GDR stock.

     

     

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

On the ground, surreal situations abound. Mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov was captured and interrogated by Russian troops. He discovered that they knew basically zilch about Ukraine:

The soldiers told him they wanted to defend the Russian language. "I told them 95% of us speak Russian already and nobody's stopping us, so there's no problem," Fedorov said.

Imagine American soldiers invading Canada to "defend the English language."

https://www.northernpublicradio.org/2022-03-31/ukraine-mayor-says-russian-soldiers-who-kidnapped-him-knew-nothing-about-his-country?msclkid=1dd55c97b2fa11ec989dea11a1d41e12

[The new erato]

Some facts about Russian strateg and how they failed:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1510276474175115281.html

[Mandryka]

Some facts about Russian strateg and how they failed:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1510276474175115281.html

Thanks

[Mandryka]

Thanks

Though I'm not sure on reflection why the Russkies needed to encircle Kyiv, why not just bomb it to smithereens from the air? I smell a fish.

[MusicTurner]

(...)

We now assess that Russia has revised its campaign plan in Ukraine after the failure of operations to seize Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities throughout March.
The Kremlin's claims that Russia's main objective has been eastern Ukraine throughout the war are false and intended to obfuscate the failure of Russia's initial campaign.
Russia's main effort is now concentrated on eastern Ukraine. Russian forces seek to capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
Russian forces will likely take Mariupol in the coming days but continue to suffer heavy casualties.[/i]

https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-1

The Russian losses have indeed been massive; this is considered a reliable source list and it is based on just social media photos, knowledge and comparisons and geolocation by weaponry experts. Besides those, there must of course be further ones, not registered
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

The analyst Michael Kofman also believes they will now concentrate on Donbass and then declare victory afterwards; they will spare Odessa and Kyiv
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1510289334989205506
(also has a more realistic map, since the Russian army isn't really in control of the usually depicted areas)

'Demining roads from Russian mines - Ukrainian style'.
I guess for many, war participation induces harshness and fatalism.
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1509863102107590659

Some facts about Russian strateg and how they failed:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1510276474175115281.html

A lot of information I had not seen and getting the overall pictore, thank you. The numbers of Russian soldiers were much higher than I had heard about. Of course, we don't know much about Ukrainian losses. They must be comprehensive too.

BTW, research has shown that Putin usually surrounds himself with 4-5 doctors, and that he has been visited by a thyroid cancer specialist 35 times recently. The prognosis for that disease is generally quite good. Around 90% survival after 5 years.

[Que]

The analyst Michael Kofman also believes they will now concentrate on Donbass and then declare victory afterwards; they will spare Odessa and Kyiv
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1510289334989205506
(also has a more realistic map, since the Russian army isn't really in control of the usually depicted areas)

Another interesting map from the same source:



That Odessa will be spared from destruction is a glimmer of light in this war.

It seems that Putin will try to occupy the entire Donbas before he wants to negotiate. Negotiations of which the only purpose would be to "neutralise" Ukraine for the future and to legitimise the annexations of Donbas and Crimea. I wouldn't be surprised if ultimately Putin will fail in achieving one or all of these objectives as well.

Because I don't see much Russian progress on the battlefield in the Donbas region. And after securing Kyiv, what will the Ukrainian military strategy be? Targeting the Russian forces near Mariupol?

[MusicTurner]

Ukraine reconquered Pripyat/Cernobyl today, all the way to the Belarus border, so that's even more included as yellow on that map (flags and celebrations + April weather shown on photos on social media).

Ahonen also has a more recent thread on the end of the war, but maybe too optimistic, except that skirmishes/pockets of war may drag on for years: that Russia can't win, only hope for a 'draw' or modest gains, and that when Putin goes, he'll get all the blame by the new Russian leadership, and the war will stop quickly.

EDIT: this: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1508552811998494725.html

[krummholz]

Ahonen also has a more recent thread on the end of the war, but maybe too optimistic, except that skirmishes/pockets of war may drag on for years: that Russia can't win, only hope for a 'draw' or modest gains, and that when Putin goes, he'll get all the blame by the new Russian leadership, and the war will stop quickly.

Perhaps, but "when Putin goes" could be as far in the future as 2036, unless he is deposed in a palace coup (unlikely) or incapacitated by illness before then (always possible, especially given his age). So it sounds as if those skirmishes could drag on for well over a decade, barring unexpected developments.

[BasilValentine]

Because I don't see much Russian progress on the battlefield in the Donbas region. And after securing Kyiv, what will the Ukrainian military strategy be? Targeting the Russian forces near Mariupol?

I think they must do this, given the numbers of Ukranian citizens dying there. And getting cameras in to interview the survivors about civilian executions, rapes, dead babies, starvation, the use of cluster bombs, and the wanton destruction will play well on the world stage. Cutting the bridge to Crimea could be strategically valuable as well.   

[Que]

More shifts in the geopolitical balance of power as a result of this war.

Now the US and its European allies are vulnerable on energy supply, our "friends" are ready to stab us in the back:

Biden rebuffed as US relations with Saudi Arabia and UAE hit new low

[Todd]

More shifts in the geopolitical balance of power as a result of this war.

Now the US and allies are vulnerable on energy supply, our "friends" are ready to stab us in the back:

Biden rebuffed as US relations with Saudi Arabia and UAE hit new low

The US started reorienting foreign policy in the Middle East long before the war.  The US is actively seeking to reduce security commitments in the Middle East.  While oil markets are global, the US has wisely sourced most of its oil away from both Russia and the Middle East, instead relying on domestic production with its two largest sources of foreign oil being Canada and Mexico.  Disruptions will have a greater negative impact on US allies more reliant on extractive resources from less stable regions.  Relations with some major oil producers may very well worsen, but at some point they may improve.  Alliances will shift and some will become even more transactional.

[Todd]

Zelensky accuses Russia of genocide

Zelensky needs to tame his actorly instincts, or at least refine them.  His allusion to the Holocaust did not go down well in Israel.  Maybe he's trying to reach young people in the US, even though they do not watch Face the Nation:

Our polling reveals a striking generational divide on Ukraine

Young people in America and Europe are less sympathetic towards it

[Karl Henning]

More shifts in the geopolitical balance of power as a result of this war.

Now the US and its European allies are vulnerable on energy supply, our "friends" are ready to stab us in the back:

Biden rebuffed as US relations with Saudi Arabia and UAE hit new low

If we Americans had been paying attention, being beholden to bad-faith actors is bad policy.