Europe at War

[MusicTurner]

One analysis of some discussions on a public platform:

"We can conclude after studying narratives around keywords and symbols in VK's discussions on the Russian war with Ukraine, that — at least on this platform, in these groups — there is no unified support for the war. VK users, usually considered more conservative, patriotic, and likely to follow Putin's lead, are at the very least skeptical and often angry with or ashamed of Russia for starting this war. They are also not afraid to call it a "war," even after the phrase was prohibited and made punishable by a prison sentence of up to 15 years".

https://globalvoices.org/2022/04/04/war-is-war-vkontakte-users-discuss-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine/

My own impression hitherto however has been that a lot of the official, anti-Western propaganda narrative is now widely accepted among the population.
Obviously, it has recently become more anti-Ukrainian as well, in some cases to an extreme degree, asking for the dissolvement of Ukraine, and worse things.

[drogulus]

If the demise of the Soviet Union was arguably a good thing, then the selling-off of its assets was a humanitarian disaster which resulted in one of the worst collective declines in life expectancies and rises in so-called "deaths of despair" in history.

     The US didn't send our best in terms of economic advice during the '90s. Instead we sent free marketeers.

     While I'm at it, though I'm happy that Anatoly Chubais managed to get out alive, I do think justice would be served if he was just a little bit burned at the stake for his part in the '90s wreckage. Throw in Jeffrey Sachs and Larry Summers, too.

[fbjim]

Yes - we basically gave the country over to our greatest University of Chicago ideologues to run experiments on, and well, we see the results.

[T. D.]

Yes - we basically gave the country over to our greatest University of Chicago ideologues to run experiments on, and well, we see the results.

You mean Russia or Chile? 

[amw]

One analysis of some discussions on a public platform:

"We can conclude after studying narratives around keywords and symbols in VK's discussions on the Russian war with Ukraine, that — at least on this platform, in these groups — there is no unified support for the war. VK users, usually considered more conservative, patriotic, and likely to follow Putin's lead, are at the very least skeptical and often angry with or ashamed of Russia for starting this war. They are also not afraid to call it a "war," even after the phrase was prohibited and made punishable by a prison sentence of up to 15 years".

https://globalvoices.org/2022/04/04/war-is-war-vkontakte-users-discuss-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine/

My own impression hitherto however has been that a lot of the official, anti-Western propaganda narrative is now widely accepted among the population.
Obviously, it has recently become more anti-Ukrainian as well, in some cases to an extreme degree, asking for the dissolvement of Ukraine, and worse things.

It is somewhat strange talking to people I know who support Russia, at least in theory—they all seem united in their belief that Ukraine is a Nazi country and is committing all sorts of atrocities, and should cease to exist, etc, but very few if any of them trust Putin to actually be the one to do this, and there's a lot of "my cousin's girlfriend's brother-in-law who's in the army is in Ukraine right now and says the government has absolutely failed to support the troops or provide adequate intelligence/supplies/etc, there's no organisation or unified command structure, Putin has betrayed the brave patriots of the DPR/LPR" etc. Such views are presumably a minority since Putin retains a ~70% approval rating, but then given how many Russians appear completely apathetic towards the invasion of Ukraine, maybe not.

VK, Russian Telegram channels, etc, are at this point largely avenues for sharing videos of suspected atrocities committed by Ukrainian forces, which run the gamut from almost certainly real (both the Russian military and Ukrainian civil authorities in Mariupol confirmed that a now fairly infamous video showing the rape, torture and murder of a young woman, including a swastika being carved into her corpse, allegedly by Azov Battalion militants, is real, as a body matching the injuries shown in the video was found in an abandoned Azov base—this kind of thing is, moreover, a longstanding part of Azov's M.O. regarding Jews, Roma and etc) to almost certainly fake (apparently the well-documented Russian atrocities in Bucha were in fact committed by Ukrainians, as "proved" by the fact that official UA MoD videos of Ukrainian forces entering the city didn't show any dead bodies... yeah, ok). But even the most obviously propagandised people don't seem to believe the Russian military is actually successfully doing anything to stop such violence; indeed, if anything they're more upset that Putin and Zelensky are trying to negotiate a peaceful settlement, and are instead calling for Tu-160s to raze Kiev to the ground.

(Given this type of video content I obviously recommend people not try to seek out pro-Russian social media channels unless they have an extremely high tolerance for real-life graphic violence.)

On the ground, Ukrainians do report seeing massive Russian columns heading for the Donbas region, as well as continued Russian airstrikes throughout the country, mostly targeting fuel depots. Russian civilians have spotted additional armour columns moving through Russia towards eastern Ukraine, although whether these are redeployed forces from Kiev/Chernihiv or an additional armoured division that hadn't been deployed yet is obviously not known. Given this evidence, I do think it's quite likely Ukraine will be able to take back Kherson as well, although I suspect Russia will position some forces across the river to prevent them from advancing towards Nova Kakhovka.

Remaining Ukrainian forces in Mariupol remain holed up in the Azovstal plant for the fifth or sixth consecutive day (the rest of the city is under Russian control). The other two major urban areas in Donbas that remain under Ukrainian control, Severodonetsk–Lysychansk and Kramatorsk–Slavyansk, now bear watching as the sites of the next major battles. There are somewhere between 60,000 and 100,000 Ukrainian troops dug in on the front lines in this area, with a similar number of Russian troops being deployed and an unknown number of DPR/LPR militia forces. Both defenders and attackers thus have significantly greater numbers than the defenders or attackers of Mariupol, and the apparent first target, Severodonetsk, has only about 100,000 civilian inhabitants. It seems likely that the level of destruction will therefore be significantly greater. Given that Russia is now a bit more willing to negotiate, perhaps things won't get that far, but I'm not especially optimistic.

[drogulus]

Yes - we basically gave the country over to our greatest University of Chicago ideologues to run experiments on, and well, we see the results.

     I think it was a Harvard mafia that was most directly involved.

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

Michele Berdy was a legendary figure in Moscow's expat community. She married a Russian rock musician in 1978 and moved to the Soviet Union, becoming one of the few Westerners living there permanently at that time. And she stayed there, living through all the ups and downs over the decades. Everyone read her column on the Russian language in the Moscow Times; she was also the arts editor there. She was a fixture in Moscow, someone you could count on to be there.

Last month, she and her dog took off for Latvia. It's the end of an era in Moscow if Michele Berdy of all people decides to leave. You can read her story here:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/03/27/fled-moscow-american-journalist-putin-00020470?fbclid=IwAR2-_ACdvsCSKU21xgfhPmQdwb-Kf4zY-pkJ7lev_N9LPtDUmTioDGbr7Oc

[MusicTurner]

Michele Berdy was a legendary figure in Moscow's expat community. She married a Russian rock musician in 1978 and moved to the Soviet Union, becoming one of the few Westerners living there permanently at that time. And she stayed there, living through all the ups and downs over the decades. Everyone read her column on the Russian language in the Moscow Times; she was also the arts editor there. She was a fixture in Moscow, someone you could count on to be there.

Last month, she and her dog took off for Latvia. It's the end of an era in Moscow if Michele Berdy of all people decides to leave. You can read her story here:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/03/27/fled-moscow-american-journalist-putin-00020470?fbclid=IwAR2-_ACdvsCSKU21xgfhPmQdwb-Kf4zY-pkJ7lev_N9LPtDUmTioDGbr7Oc

A good article, thanks. I read stuff in the Moscow Times regularly & wondered how they've kept publishing some critical articles nowadays.

[Herman]

A good article, thanks. I read stuff in the Moscow Times regularly & wondered how they've kept publishing some critical articles nowadays.

They are in Amsterdam now.

[krummholz]

A good article, thanks. I read stuff in the Moscow Times regularly & wondered how they've kept publishing some critical articles nowadays.

+1

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Michele Berdy was a legendary figure in Moscow's expat community. She married a Russian rock musician in 1978 and moved to the Soviet Union, becoming one of the few Westerners living there permanently at that time. And she stayed there, living through all the ups and downs over the decades. Everyone read her column on the Russian language in the Moscow Times; she was also the arts editor there. She was a fixture in Moscow, someone you could count on to be there.

Last month, she and her dog took off for Latvia. It's the end of an era in Moscow if Michele Berdy of all people decides to leave. You can read her story here:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/03/27/fled-moscow-american-journalist-putin-00020470?fbclid=IwAR2-_ACdvsCSKU21xgfhPmQdwb-Kf4zY-pkJ7lev_N9LPtDUmTioDGbr7Oc

Thank you for posting that link....hard to read...I feel for her and her coworkers.

PD

[krummholz]

Thank you for posting that link....hard to read...I feel for her and her coworkers.

PD

Yes, very poignant... and drives home how very reminiscent of the Stalin years life in Russia under Putin's regime has become.

[Todd]

Biden urges Putin war crimes trial after Bucha killings

This may prove rather challenging:

Charging Putin for potential war crimes is difficult, and any penalty hard to enforce

It may also take just a little bit of time to put together a trial.  For instance, the ICC, which of course neither Russia nor the US are members of, is just beginning to try a leader in the decades old Sudanese slaughter.

Sudan Darfur crisis: ICC to try war crimes suspect

Perhaps Zelenskyy can keep on repeating that obvious war crimes in Ukraine somehow constitute genocide and perhaps someone will believe him and perhaps some type of expedited trial can take place and perhaps Putin will be handed over to the proper authorities forthwith.  Lots of things can happen.

[drogulus]

     Wesley Clark explains the coming action.

     https://www.youtube.com/v/oyNCOgNxAtM

     So, Russia has in mind a month long campaign that leaves them in control of the territory in the south and east that matters most to them.

[Que]

[fbjim]

Biden urges Putin war crimes trial after Bucha killings

This may prove rather challenging:

Charging Putin for potential war crimes is difficult, and any penalty hard to enforce

It may also take just a little bit of time to put together a trial.  For instance, the ICC, which of course neither Russia nor the US are members of, is just beginning to try a leader in the decades old Sudanese slaughter.

Sudan Darfur crisis: ICC to try war crimes suspect

Perhaps Zelenskyy can keep on repeating that obvious war crimes in Ukraine somehow constitute genocide and perhaps someone will believe him and perhaps some type of expedited trial can take place and perhaps Putin will be handed over to the proper authorities forthwith.  Lots of things can happen.

Not to be glib, but it's been a long-standing tenet that only Africans get successfully charged with war crimes by the ICC.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Yes, very poignant... and drives home how very reminiscent of the Stalin years life in Russia under Putin's regime has become.

Yes.  And I learned something new:  what rapping ones knuckles on something means.   

I'm glad that she has her dog for company.

PD

[Gurn Blanston]

Not to be glib, but it's been a long-standing tenet that only Africans get successfully charged with war crimes by the ICC.

That's not the same outfit that put the Serbs in jail? Once they were finally caught they were convicted and are all still there except the one that died while awaiting trial (Milosevec?). It is a very long and tedious process, but eventually they all seem to get caught in the end. Not to say Vlad the Mad will, given his peculiar circumstance, but the system itself seems inexorable. Maybe Africans have a higher number of atrocities committed per capita?

[krummholz]

Yes.  And I learned something new:  what rapping ones knuckles on something means.   

I'm glad that she has her dog for company.

PD

Ditto... and yes, me too.

[MusicTurner]

I know about the former critique of Navalny for having been too much of a Russian nationalist previously etc. But in the current situation (also), he is a brave man, as illustrated by this, from today. Seems willing to maybe get another 15 years sentence ...
https://twitter.com/navalny/status/1511368941758787592