Europe at War

[Florestan]

     Wikipedia says:

During the Spanish Civil War, several countries followed a principle of non-intervention to avoid any potential escalation or possible expansion of the war to other states. That would result in the signing of the Non-Intervention Agreement in August 1936 and the setting up of the Non-Intervention Committee, which first met in September. Primarily arranged by the French and the British governments, the Committee also included the Soviet Union, Fascist Italy, and Nazi Germany. Ultimately, the committee had the support of 27 states.

     So, intervention spawned nonintervention. That makes sense.

Actually, it was exactly the other way around: a putative nonintervention was committed to a scrap of paper and subsequently intervention took place.

I do hope you are not going to argue that Germany, Italy and the Soviets observed the agreement, it was just volunteers without any connection to their respective governments who joined one camp or another --- or that the USSR (or Tsarist Russia or Russian Federation for that matter) being signatory of a treaty means they have any intention whatsoever to abide by it.

[drogulus]

Actually, it was exactly the other way around: a putative nonintervention was committed to a scrap of paper and subsequently intervention took place.

     
Italy and Germany supported the Spanish Nationalists from the outset of the Spanish Civil War. The Soviet Union began supporting the Spanish Republicans four months later. Non-intervention and the Non-Intervention Agreement were proposed in a joint diplomatic initiative by the governments of France and the United Kingdom. Part of the policy of appeasement, it was aimed at preventing a proxy war from escalating into a European-wide conflict.

     So, there was intervention, a non-intervention agreement, and more intervention. That makes sense.

     If you provide military aid to a combatant in a war, that is not nonintervention, and that is not neutrality. You are materially aiding the war effort. I'm not interested in a legalistic appraisal of these actions. I'm concerned with the intentions and consequences.

[Florestan]

   If you provide military aid to a combatant in a war, that is not nonintervention, and that is not neutrality.

True --- but it doesn't make you a combatant in that war, ie you are not at war with the camp opposing the camp you support.

Look, if you imply that NATO is not neutral in a general sense and that each and every NATO country* --- and a few non-NATO countries as well, for that matter --- is part and parcel of an ideological, political, economic and social conflict (call it war, if it suits you) with Russia, I do agree. What I do disagree with is that NATO as a whole, or any individual NATO country, is currently at war with Russia.

*conspicuously excepting Hungary

[Madiel]

     I gave you the example in which China fires a missile guided by targeting information from the US military. The fact that the GPS tech has civilian uses is not relevant. It could be NSA intercepts and satellite imaging, or a spy drone piloted by a guy in Utah. The point is your generals are killed and your warship is sunk by the combined efforts of your Chinese trigger puller aided by US aiming for their joint purpose.
   

You still don't get how brief and hopelessly non-detailed your "example" was, and I'm bored now.

[drogulus]

     U.S. relieved as China appears to heed warnings on Russia

WASHINGTON, May 3 (Reuters) - Two months after warning that Beijing appeared poised to help Russia in its fight against Ukraine, senior U.S. officials say they have not detected overt Chinese military and economic support, a welcome development in the tense U.S.-China relationship.

U.S. officials told Reuters in recent days they remain wary about China's long-standing support for Russia in general, but that the military and economic support that they worried about has not come to pass, at least for now. The relief comes at a pivotal time.

As well as steering clear of directly backing Russia's war effort, China has avoided entering new contracts between its state oil refiners and Russia, despite steep discounts. In March its state-run Sinopec Group suspended talks about a major petrochemical investment and a gas marketing venture in Russia.

     

[MusicTurner]

An interesting article about the reaction in the Russian elites, with some not generally mentioned info - including a governmental 'fraud' investment programme now hitting wealthy people, and a lot more

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/05/a-heart-to-heart-with-russias-elites-a77587

Natalia Poklonskaya in a surprising move - with her legal background, an exiled Ukrainian turned a die-hard Russian nationalist and career politician, she is now nonetheless promoting the legal cases of Russian mothers against the state, because of their sons being conscripted into a non-declared war, and she is criticizing the 'Z'-fascism:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/20/ex-crimea-prosecutor-poklonskaya-slams-russias-pro-war-z-symbol-a77418
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522589714053750784

The 'Moskva" ship, conscripts etc.:
"Military prosecutors reportedly told Dmitry Shkrebets, whose son "went missing" aboard the Moskva, that the warship never entered Ukraine's territorial waters and wasn't part of Russia's "special operation." The ship sank in an innocent accident is all!

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522447329583935488

[LKB]

" We're not entirely certain what caused the loss of Moskva. Some of the surviving crew claim the Sun was in their eyes, others that the dog ate their homework, and the engineers believe it was sugar in the gas tank. All are agreed, however, that the Ukranians had absolutely nothing to do with it. "

[LKB]

Several sources are reporting Russian governmental entities recruiting experts in war mobilization, since April 21st. Perhaps Putin will clarify on Monday.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-hires-war-mobilization-specialists-putin-denying-declare-war-ukraine-1704161?amp=1

[Florestan]

Russia is a drunk hooligan with nukes.

Truly, really and genuinely the scourge of the earth.

[MusicTurner]

A good read on the issues regarding Putin's health, by Galeotti

https://intellinews.com/stolypin-the-sick-man-of-europe-243657/

So far, the message from the Victory Day parades in Russia has been 'Expect more of the same' - including confirming the view of the West as a threatening opponent.

[Todd]

A good read on the issues regarding Putin's health, by Galeotti

https://intellinews.com/stolypin-the-sick-man-of-europe-243657/

Run of the mill propaganda.  The more things change and all that.

[Todd]

Bragging about blowing up Russian generals could get us all killed

How the self-aggrandizing culture of Washington could spark World War III


Maybe a bit over the top.  One thing is for sure, Ukrainians will suffer and die because of loose talk in the US.

[Florestan]

Russian ambassador to Poland pelted with red paint at VE Day gathering

Police escort Sergey Andreev away after protesters prevent him laying wreath at Soviet cemetery in Warsaw

Quite possibly the ambassador knew exactly what was going to happen and actually counted on it to happen, in order to offer Putin yet another pretext to bark at "Polish neo-Nazism" and "worldwide Russophobia".

[Florestan]

Bragging about blowing up Russian generals could get us all killed

How the self-aggrandizing culture of Washington could spark World War III


Maybe a bit over the top.  One thing is for sure, Ukrainians will suffer and die because of loose talk in the US.

I think the author makes a good point. Something similar, albeit on a much smaller scale, happened in Romania two weeks ago when the Speaker of the Senate and that of the Chamber of Deputies bragged about how Romania was going to send weapons to Ukraine. I am not opposed to the move but announcing it publicly and loudly is the top of stupidity. Eventually the prime-minister stepped in and stated that nothing has been decided yet.

[Todd]

"Polish neo-Nazism"

Zelensky recently accused Russia of a "bloody reconstruction of Nazism".  Nazis are everywhere, on all sides of all conflicts.  It's terribly unnerving, all the Nazis out there today. 

[Florestan]

Nazi / Fascist has long ago become a synonym for "someone whom the speaker despises and would like to see silenced forever". 

[drogulus]

     Announcements don't signify concerning communication between the warring parties. What matters is what Russians and the US are saying to each other at a secret location where talks are going on.

     Announcers may be communicating among the allies, though I think it's mostly for internal consumption.

[Florestan]

What matters is what Russians and the US are saying to each other at a secret location where talks are going on.     

Go ahead, tell us more, you sound very well-versed in this matter.

[Florestan]

French President Emmanuel Macron has warned against humiliating Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, if and when any peace settlement is agreed.

He told reporters in Strasbourg that once the war ends, Moscow and Kyiv will eventually have to sit down and negotiate with each other, so any further tensions will only serve to the detriment of the situation.


No one in their right minds want any humiliation of Russia, of course. Problem is, for the time being we are witnessing not any putative humiliation of Russia but the outright destruction of Ukraine by the Russian invading army --- and any further tension is entirely on the Russian side. Mr Macron missed an excellent opportunity to shut up.

[drogulus]

Go ahead, tell us more, you sound very well-versed in this matter.

     Once upon a time a Russian guy, maybe a deputy prime minister, showed up in Baku, Azerbaijan at the same time as a US State Dept. team was there. This was a couple of days ago.