Europe at War

[Todd]

It is entirely possible that a former Chinese diplomat presented something without permission.  It is also possible that the offending content was presented and then censored purposely.  Whatever the case, the following bit seems more than a little suspect: 

Beware a rearmed Japan. Mao and Deng welcomed the US in Asia to put a lid on Japanese ambitions/fears. Now, this lid has been removed and we are about to face a belligerent Tokyo, something we have dreaded for a long time.

Why, that seems like the perfect rationale to take action in the Diaoyu Islands sooner rather than later.

Also telling is this from the full English translation:

The U.S. and other countries will push hard for substantive reform of the UN and other important international organizations. If they are blocked, they may also start a new one. Both may exclude some countries, such as Russia, by drawing ideological lines of so-called independence.

Hmm. 

[Que]

     Intelligence chiefs don't give interviews to deliver objective truth to readers. The job of the reader is to divine what objective truth makes such an assessment plausible. If it's just a bunch of propagandistic hogwash it won't fly.

Absolutely. Of course it's propaganda.
But some degree of truth will give it credibility and will make it all the more effective.

[Karl Henning]

[ snip] Xi can't be happy with what was said and the speech was taken down hours after it appeared online.

It is quite possible that Xi meant both the reveal and the ceremonial suppression.

[Todd]

But some degree of truth will give it credibility and will make it all the more effective.

How do end readers divine truth?

Of course, facts are better than truth.

[drogulus]

     

Absolutely. Of course it's propaganda.
But some degree of truth will give it credibility and will make it all the more effective.

     The timing is revealing IMO. No such announcement was made until after the collapse of the Russians at Kharkiv.

     Here's a question for the Big Brain Brigade. Should the Ukes cross the border, or should they restrict themselves to air and artillery strikes?

     Russian buildings are catching fire as far away as Irkutsk. That's near Mongolia.

[prémont]

Russian buildings are catching fire as far away as Irkutsk. That's near Mongolia.

What I think is that these fires are caused not by Ukes but by Russian partisans.

If this is so, this points to heavy trouble also in Russia.

[LKB]

What I think is that these fires are caused not by Ukes but by Russian partisans.

If this is so, this points to heavy trouble also in Russia.

According to various Intel people over the years, Putin once blew up 300 Russians to frame Chechnya. These incidents around Russia could likewise be FSB activity, to stoke domestic support for the invasion.

[steve ridgway]

The mutual defence pact is certainly great, but frankly I don't trust the UK 100 % at the moment. The UK seems a confused nation after years of Tory austerity policy and xenophobia-based populism.

Don't worry, the xenophobia-based populism will work in Finland's favour.

[Herman]

     
   Russian buildings are catching fire as far away as Irkutsk. That's near Mongolia.

Russia is a very large place. So chances are there's a building burning down every day, some place.

It doesn't have to be significantly connected to the UK - RU conflict.

[Madiel]

I'm with Herman on this one. Who was France at war with when Notre Dame burned? Fires happen for a huge variety of reasons, and the great majority of them have no connection to politics.

[prémont]

The fires have to large extent hit strategic targets, a fact which talks against the thought that they should be casual. And some of them took place so far from Ukaine that the Ukes can't be involved. And I refrain from thinking that Putin deliberately should destruct important strategic places so far from Ukraine. Nobody would think the Ukes were responsible for this, anyway.

[Madiel]

The location mentioned did not appear to be a strategic target unless I missed something. It was a historic building.

Edit: and also reportedly empty. Honestly, I cant think of a better place for a fire than an empty old building, especially if there were repairs underway. I already mentioned Notre Dame.

If someone can explain to me the strategic value of a cultural building in Irkutsk I'd be fascinated. Although if the HQ if the Russian war effort was all the way over there, it would explain some things.

[prémont]

The location mentioned did not appear to be a strategic target unless I missed something. It was a historic building.

Here is a Danish article about an unexplained fire in a strategic place near Moskva, which you may read. For other readers not understanding Danish Google translate does miracles.

https://www.berlingske.dk/internationalt/17-doede-i-brand-paa-russisk-militaerinstitut

[Madiel]

Yes, but that wasn't the location immediately under discussion. I can see why that story you've linked to is a LOT more interesting.

But even there, it could really be an electrical fault like the Russians said. Such things happen.

[steve ridgway]

I'm pleased to hear the Eurovision voters gave Ukraine first place this year.

[MusicTurner]

Yes, but that wasn't the location immediately under discussion. I can see why that story you've linked to is a LOT more interesting.

But even there, it could really be an electrical fault like the Russians said. Such things happen.

All the fires can't be just accidents. For example there's been fires at 11 army recruitment offices in Russia recently.

[drogulus]

     

If someone can explain to me the strategic value of a cultural building in Irkutsk I'd be fascinated. 

     Russia is trying to wipe out Ukrainian cultural landmarks. So it would be tit for tat.

     Nevertheless the Irkutsk fire might be unrelated.

[71 dB]

Looks like Finland will apply to NATO membership next Wednesday after the Parliament* has voted for it the previous day to make this process as democratic and "by the book" as possible. Many NATO countries welcome Finland to join and some even compete to be the first to ratify the application, but then there's Turkey with its demands...

* 156 out of 200 representatives in the Parliament support NATO membership while only about 10 are opposing it so the result of the voting is clear.

Don't worry, the xenophobia-based populism will work in Finland's favour.

I can't see how... 

[steve ridgway]

I can't see how... 

I think Scandinavian countries are generally seen here as nice, friendly, clean, civilised places where one needn't fear the police. In fact we're probably a little jealous.

[71 dB]

I think Scandinavian countries are generally seen here as nice, friendly, clean, civilised places where one needn't fear the police. In fact we're probably a little jealous.

That's cool.  (Finland isn't actually part of Scandinavia even if people often think it is. Finland is part of Fennoscandia and Nordic countries)