Europe at War

[Spotted Horses]

Using veto power has its consequences. Sweden and Finland have more friends than enemies. Turkey risks making other NATO countries angry.

Yes. You have to be an idiot autocrat in your own echo-chamber to make claims like "Sweden and Finland can't join NATO because they support terrorism."

[T. D.]

Turkey has some leverage: it controls the Straits of Dardanelles and Bosphorus.

https://www.firstpost.com/world/explained-importance-bosphorus-and-dardanelles-straits-in-russia-ukraine-conflict-and-turkeys-role-10412751.html

[71 dB]

Yes. You have to be an idiot autocrat in your own echo-chamber to make claims like "Sweden and Finland can't join NATO because they support terrorism."

Turkey defines terrorism completely differently than Sweden and Finland. What Turkey calls supporting terrorism, we here in the Nordic call protection of human rights.

[drogulus]

Turkey defines terrorism completely differently than Sweden and Finland. What Turkey calls supporting terrorism, we here in the Nordic call protection of human rights.

     It would cost Finland nothing in the grand scheme of things to give the PKK a dirty look while still supporting unaffiliated Kurdish groups.

     Anyway, they're in. NATO defense does not wait for the paperwork.

[Todd]

Turkey has some leverage

Turkey has the second largest army in NATO.  White Europeans live in an alternate reality.  White people generally live in an alternate reality.  The 2030s will be very hard on white people generally. 

[milk]

White people generally live in an alternate reality. 

This whole thread is out of order.

[Florestan]

Turkey has the second largest army in NATO.  White Europeans live in an alternate reality.  White people generally live in an alternate reality.  The 2030s will be very hard on white people generally.

Many, if not most, of the Turks are virtually indistinguishable from White Europeans. 

[Herman]

Many, if not most, of the Turks are virtually indistinguishable from White Europeans. 

yeah, I'm a little surprised at hearing people in Turkey are universally PoC.

[The new erato]

Turkey defines terrorism completely differently than Sweden and Finland. What Turkey calls supporting terrorism, we here in the Nordic call protection of human rights.

. +1 Anybody opposing Erdogan is a terrorist in Gurkey.

[Spotted Horses]

Turkey has the second largest army in NATO....

What part of that army is required to maintain the regime domestically?

[71 dB]

The supply of Russian natural gas to Finland has ended on Saturday. Finland leases floating LNG terminal for this reason.

[Todd]

What part of that army is required to maintain the regime domestically?

I'm not sure.  I seem to recall that only a few years ago there was an attempted coup, real or staged, so I am not sure of the current state of relations between Erdoğan and the military leadership.  Western press reports portray Erdoğan as a traditional strongman, and one with an Islamist bent - which I believe means he is therefore more bad than he otherwise would be - so I would think he has a firm grasp on the military and can use it to support the government, as has been done from time to time.  Perhaps that is not the case.

Whatever portion of the military is used to quell internal strife and prop up the government, the fact is that Turkey is a regional power with military forces deployed in the Middle East and Africa, and in the Balkans.  Turkey is willing to take sides opposing both the US (in Syria) and Russia (in Nagorno-Karabakh and Ukraine) yet works with both.  It not only possesses a powerful military but it is becoming a significant weapons manufacturer, making land based systems, submarines, and the now famous and celebrated Bayraktar drones (see some of the laudatory posts in this thread, for instance), manufactured by Baykar, which is run by Mr Bayraktar, who also happens to be Erdoğan's son-in-law. 

Given Turkey's critical strategic location, it is essential that the US maintain some type of good working relationship with the country.  It seems less likely as time passes that the US will be able to freely engage in regime change - whether of the 1950s Iran variety or 2000s Iraq variety - so it will have to work with the leadership.  I'd say Turkey alone is more strategically valuable than all countries added to NATO since 1991, but right now we have to pretend otherwise. 

Not being privy to any negotiations currently underway to add more security consuming members to NATO in a manner that satisfies Turkey, I would think that US negotiators are at least potentially discussing a more concrete objective that Turkey has been openly pursuing, along with whatever "terrorism" related issues it may have with Sweden and Finland.  Specifically, Turkey wants full access to US systems, starting with the F35, which the US has used as a cudgel, and rightly and understandably so.  Turkey wants both US and Russian advanced systems, and it just may get them. 

[Todd]

Ukraine's EU Application Is Splitting Europe in Two

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has said there is "no such thing as a fast track;" French President Emmanuel Macron said earlier this month that membership could take "decades;" while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said this week there "is no shortcut on the road to EU membership."

If Mr Brennan's article is accurate, this makes for a wonderful bit of news to go with the perfect sunny weather around these parts today.

[Florestan]

Ukraine's EU Application Is Splitting Europe in Two

If Mr Brennan's article is accurate, this makes for a wonderful bit of news to go with the perfect sunny weather around these parts today.

The title is misleading. The bulk of the article deals exactly with the fact that the Big Three made it clear there will be a long process and the rest just accepted it tacitly and not very grudgingly --- iow, no split, at least not in the celebratory sense you'd like it to be. 

[Todd]

The title is misleading. The bulk of the article deals exactly with the fact that the Big Three made it clear there will be a long process and the rest just accepted it tacitly and not very grudgingly --- iow, no split, at least not in the celebratory sense you'd like it to be. 

Yes, I read the article, and it does in fact explain how Europe is split.  That is delightful.  The trick is to somehow use the standard bureaucratic delay to drive a wedge into Europe and hopefully destroy the EU.  Maintaining sclerotic bureaucratic roadblocks is good for now, as is eurosquabbling. 

[Florestan]

Europe is split.  That is delightful.  The trick is to somehow use the standard bureaucratic delay to drive a wedge into Europe and hopefully destroy the EU. 

Putin himself couldn't have put it better. 

[Todd]

Putin himself couldn't have put it better. 

Godwin's Law is ripe for an update.

[ritter]

Some time ago, our friend from the Pacific Northwest kept saying that European posters had no business opining on US politics, and now he'll not waste any chance to post his biased  views on what's happening this side of the Atlantic (as he has his own axe to grind). Cosas veredes, amigo Sancho....

[Florestan]

Godwin's Law is ripe for an update.

Why, is it my fault if you sound exactly like Russian propaganda? 

[Karl Henning]

Some time ago, our friend from the Pacific Northwest kept saying that European posters had no business opining on US politics, and now he'll not waste any chance to post his biased  views on what's happening this side of the Atlantic (as he has his own axe to grind). Cosas veredes, amigo Sancho....

Ayyup.