Europe at War

[Que]

Turkey has the second largest army in NATO.  White Europeans live in an alternate reality.  White people generally live in an alternate reality.  The 2030s will be very hard on white people generally.

I'm not sure how the debatable strenght of the Turkish army, the end of white ethnocentrism (supremacy) in the US and Europe and the pending crises in the 2030's are linked....

In the years to come we'll see a severe climate crisis, an economic crisis, a food (and water) crisis and a major geopolitical crisis all in one. Times will be (very) hard for anyone, but particularly for poor regions and nations and for poor people in any nation whatever the colour of their skin.

[71 dB]

In the years to come we'll see a severe climate crisis, an economic crisis, a food (and water) crisis and a major geopolitical crisis all in one. Times will be (very) hard for anyone, but particularly for poor regions and nations and for poor people in any nation whatever the colour of their skin.

It sucks to be on this planet, doesn't it? Maybe somewhere millions of lightyears away there is a planet where the leaders are actually competent to address the problems intelligently while not creating unnecessary new problems. It is painful to watch what happens on our planet unable to do much about it. We where not out of Covid-19 pandemic and Russia had to attack Ukraine. Now they write about Monkey Pox, whatever that is. WTF?

[relm1]

It sucks to be on this planet, doesn't it? Maybe somewhere millions of lightyears away there is a planet where the leaders are actually competent to address the problems intelligently while not creating unnecessary new problems. It is painful to watch what happens on our planet unable to do much about it. We where not out of Covid-19 pandemic and Russia had to attack Ukraine. Now they write about Monkey Pox, whatever that is. WTF?

What is monkey pox?

[MusicTurner]

Another oncoming epidemic. Has that name in English.

[Todd]

It's just a good investment

That is one of the most debatable aspects of US foreign policy.  The US has devoted trillions of dollars to defending others, and finding any type of cost-benefit analysis is basically impossible.  Certain, specific interests benefit mightily, that cannot be denied, but move beyond those corporate and institutional interests and into the general population, and the benefits become hazy at best.

I'm not sure how the debatable strenght of the Turkish army, the end of white ethnocentrism (supremacy) in the US and Europe and the pending crises in the 2030's are linked....

I was not referring to the relative decline of white majority rule - white supremacy has much different connotations - but rather to a shift in economic, political, and military power between The West and The Rest, or between Global North and Global South, or whatever other designations you prefer.  Turkey will play a significant role in that. 

In the years to come we'll see a severe climate crisis, an economic crisis, a food (and water) crisis and a major geopolitical crisis all in one.

Not years, months, weeks, or days, but right now:

Crises beyond Russia's war: Drought and famine lose attention as Ukraine drains focus and funds

The existing international political system and accompanying security arrangements are woefully out of date, Eurocentric, and incapable of addressing global problems right now.  It will get worse as The West doubles down on what used to work.

[Todd]

We Must Prepare for Putin's Worst Weapons

Some will conclude that to avoid provoking Russia — and thus avoid the prospect of a possible Russian nuclear strike — we should pre-emptively restrain Ukraine from routing the Russian military. We could limit the weapons we send, hold back on intelligence and pressure President Volodymyr Zelensky to settle. I disagree; free nations must continue to support Ukrainians' brave and necessary defense of their country. Failing to continue to support Ukraine would be like paying the cannibal to eat us last. If Mr. Putin, or any other nuclear power, can invade and subjugate with near impunity, then Ukraine would be only the first of such conquests. Inevitably, our friends and allies would be devoured by brazen, authoritarian nuclear powers, the implications of which would drastically alter the world order...

Further, we could confront China and every other nation with a choice much like that George W. Bush gave the world after Sept. 11: You are either with us, or you are with Russia — you cannot be with both...

Nice word choice: "cannibal", "devoured".  Whatever author Romney used must have written this before lunch.  Let that be a warning.  Always write warmongering op-eds right after a meal.  Oh, and what if the proposed hypothetical ultimatum backfires?

(Do the references to Bush and Kissinger lend gravitas to this piece to which the failed presidential candidate affixed his name?)

[drogulus]

It's just a good investment - there is nothing altruistic about it.

     It's necessary for some good investments to press the altruism button, like "I did a thing, and Our Ford saw it was good!".

     I feel good in an altruistic sense knowing dollars that are defending my dividends all over the world are defending billions of people who need a strong world economy as much as I do.

[Karl Henning]

Why cannot there be an intersection of altruism and enlightened self-interest?

[Florestan]

"Will Russia attack Finland?"

Highly unlikely. Putin himself stated that Russia has no problems with Finland and Sweden.

[LKB]

Highly unlikely. Putin himself stated that Russia has no problems with Finland and Sweden.

And of course, Putin always tells the truth...

But in this case he probably is being truthful. The Russians have lost approximately 30% of their combat power within Ukraine, with little overall progress. The Russian Bear has been revealed as arthritic and confused. They will do well to hold on to the little they've gained thus far, and opening yet another front against an arguably superior opponent would be beyond reason.

I suspect that within the Finnish and Swedish military and government leadership, there is very little fear of Russia in the short term. Long term, NATO membership is desirable. Putin won't be in power forever, but there's currently no reason to think his successor will be any friendlier.

[Florestan]

And of course, Putin always tells the truth...

In this case I think he does.

But in this case he probably is being truthful. The Russians have lost approximately 30% of their combat power within Ukraine, with little overall progress. The Russian Bear has been revealed as arthritic and confused. They will do well to hold on to the little they've gained thus far, and opening yet another front against an arguably superior opponent would be beyond reason.

I suspect that within the Finnish and Swedish military and government leadership, there is very little fear of Russia in the short term. Long term, NATO membership is desirable. Putin won't be in power forever, but there's currently no reason to think his successor will be any friendlier.

This.

[Florestan]

Yes, it is rude! I am tired of him running his mouth like americans were so special. At least you live in a NATO country. I have to wait God knows how many months thanks to Turkey for this shit to finally end. Don't quote his posts. That's how I don't see them.

It's not Todd's fault that Turkey wants to extract as much as they can from eventually agreeing to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. And in the grand scheme of things, nothing Todd says matters a mere iota. Actually, this is valid for me and you as well. We're all just commenting on what people with real power do and decide. You take it much too seriously.

[Harry]

It's not Todd's fault that Turkey wants to extract as much as they can from eventually agreeing to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. And in the grand scheme of things, nothing Todd says matters a mere iota. Actually, this is valid for me and you as well. We're all just commenting on what people with real power do and decide. You take it much too seriously.

I for one am ignoring Todd, and if everyone does this and do not give him fuel to react, he will die a silent dead.  So ignore is the answer.

[Todd]

Highly unlikely.

This seems to be the case.  If Russia does attack Finland, many Finns will die.  If it is a ground invasion, many Russian soldiers will die.  And it will make Finnish and Swedish NATO membership a certainty, at least after hostilities end.  Turkey would not be able to block membership, the pressure from the US would be too great.  The US would threaten to, or would immediately, impose severe sanctions on Turkey.  It is possible that the US government would clandestinely partner with Turkey's military to oust Erdoğan.  The US has done that sort of thing before. 

[LKB]

I read Romney's opinion, and consider it confirmation of his inability to comprehend both the opportunities and dangers which are currently present.

Confront China? When an opportunity to create a wedge between Xi and Putin presents itself?

Certainly, China will remain the most potent of adversaries for some years to come. But inflexibility in the face of dynamic events is equally dangerous, and the door to future opportunities appears rarely enough that it should not be lightly spurned.

[71 dB]

Another oncoming epidemic. Has that name in English.

Apinarutto in Finnish. Just wondering how much it will sabotage our lives.... Do we have to ban bananas?   

I for one am ignoring Todd, and if everyone does this and do not give him fuel to react, he will die a silent dead.  So ignore is the answer.

Hurrah!  0:)

It's not Todd's fault that Turkey wants to extract as much as they can from eventually agreeing to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. And in the grand scheme of things, nothing Todd says matters a mere iota. Actually, this is valid for me and you as well. We're all just commenting on what people with real power do and decide. You take it much too seriously.

I am not saying it is Todd's fault. Of course it isn't. Lets just say that I am "on edge" because of the Turkey thing and that means my ability to take Todd's American exceptionalism is compromised at the moment. It has been hard 3 months because suddenly the security of my own country is being questioned on daily basis! Todd's posts do not help. I am trying to get my head together here finally. 

[drogulus]

Certainly, China will remain the most potent of adversaries for some years to come.

     China peaked a few years ago. Labor costs continue to rise and the demographic situation is getting worse. Their "one child" army can't project power even as far as Vietnam. Mass casualties in the PLA could end the Xi regime if something else doesn't do it first.

     In the West China is seen as a rich exporter. Those exports are going to decline and as they do it will be clear that China is a poor importer of basic goods. Even the rich part depends on US components to assemble their export goods. Eventually those components will go to the new low cost manufacturers.

[71 dB]

I suspect that within the Finnish and Swedish military and government leadership, there is very little fear of Russia in the short term. Long term, NATO membership is desirable. Putin won't be in power forever, but there's currently no reason to think his successor will be any friendlier.

Especially in the 90's Finland had high hopes for Russia developing toward a more democratic and peace-loving nation, but the last 20 years have proven those hopes naive and ridiculously optimistic. Maybe we projected our own way of thinking too much onto Russia? However, this explains why the enthusiasms to join NATO has been rather low in Finland until recently. Fortunately we played it safe and we have build our defence as NATO-compatible as possible. Without Turkey and perhaps Croatia Finland would be accepted as a new NATO member very fast, because other countries recognise what Finland has to offer. Anyway, Russia has made it very clear they are not interested of becoming more democratic or friendlier. Better join NATO while we still can! 

[LKB]

Especially in the 90's Finland had high hopes for Russia developing toward a more democratic and peace-loving nation, but the last 20 years have proven those hopes naive and ridiculously optimistic. Maybe we projected our own way of thinking too much onto Russia? However, this explains why the enthusiasms to join NATO has been rather low in Finland until recently. Fortunately we played it safe and we have build our defence as NATO-compatible as possible. Without Turkey and perhaps Croatia Finland would be accepted as a new NATO member very fast, because other countries recognise what Finland has to offer. Anyway, Russia has made it very clear they are not interested of becoming more democratic or friendlier. Better join NATO while we still can! 

Of course. NATO will benefit from both democracies, and as stated, Sweden and Finland will have their security assured. Win/win.

[Karl Henning]

Russia tries to rebound in Ukraine as prospects for victory fade