Europe at War

[LKB]

With this move, Putin joins the ranks of the Mongol Khans, Hitler and Mao.
Good going, you five-foot little tin-horn unbalanced murderer.

As you can see from the quote, Godwin's law does not apply. I'd say, " Nice try, " but it was't .

[Florestan]

The only acceptable " settlement " is Russian capitulation.

The only way to secure this is a strictly conventional WW3 between NATO and Russia. In other words, there's no way to secure this.

Look, as an intractable Russophobe I'd just love to see them defeated and de-Putinized the way Nazi Germany* was defeated and de-Hitlerized, ie manu militari. But as a realist, I realize (pun) that it's not going to happen.

* pace Todd.

[Todd]

Look, as an intractable Russophobe I'd just love to see them defeated and de-Putinized the way Nazi Germany* was defeated and de-Hitlerized, ie manu militari. But as a realist, I realize (pun) that it's not going to happen.

Western pro-war propaganda, especially in the US, has been so pervasive, and so persuasive for people prone to accept militarism generally, that many or at least some people actually believe that sending more weapons to Ukraine will suffice to defeat Russia.  Aside from the strategic folly inherent in this thinking, it ignores Russian military history over the last few centuries, and more to the point, over the past twenty or so years.  It also fails to define basic concepts like victory and defeat in the current war.

Unfortunately for Ukrainians, the Russo-Ukrainian War has started fading as an issue in the US, replaced by SCOTUS rulings, inflation, airline cancellations bungling vacation plans, and in a couple months, the never-ending onslaught of political ads and punditry.  Unless the war goes nuclear, the time for maximum (presumably) effective US action has passed.  The US will continue to pump billions in, as it does, and issue some stern warnings and such, but as with America's wars this century, the war has lost much of its salience.

[LKB]

WW3 is neither necessary nor inevitable. There simply has to be a willingness to:

A) Shut off Russian energy exports to Europe, and accept the resultant hardships.

B) Continue the sanctions and augment them.

C) Start providing Ukraine with the full range of the needed training, materials and supporting intel they need to prevail.

One problem is simply that the war has lasted long enough to exhaust western attention, to an extent. Expectations were probably too high after the initial Russian ineptitude was revealed, though there already were experts warning that they would probably improve their efforts over time. So once the wholesale bombardment of civilian targets commenced, along with emerging accounts of Russian brutality, a new sort of shock set in.

Months later, the slaughter continues. But Zelenskyy said it best back then, and he's still right: Russia must not profit from this, not even symbolically.

Any sort of a " win " for Putin would threaten all of Europe with war for as long as he lives. That's a pretty simple truth, really.

< " 3 " magically becomes " C ", and a huge error is no more! >

[Todd]

WW3 is neither necessary nor inevitable. There simply has to be a willingness to:

A) Shut off Russian energy exports to Europe, and accept the resultant hardships.

B) Continue the sanctions and augment them.

3) Start providing Ukraine with the full range of the needed training, materials and supporting intel they need to prevail.

A, B, 3?

[Florestan]

many or at least some people actually believe that sending more weapons to Ukraine will suffice to defeat Russia. 

No, of course it won't.

the Russo-Ukrainian War has started fading as an issue in the US

So has in Romania for that matter. During the first two or three months, it made the headlines and was covered extensively before any domestic issue was even alluded to. Now it's a third or fourth tier news.

[Florestan]

A) Shut off Russian energy exports to Europe, and accept the resultant hardships.

Probability: close to zero.

(B) Continue the sanctions and augment them.

Absent (A) the sanctions and their augmentation are a joke.

Start providing Ukraine with the full range of the needed training, materials and supporting intel they need to prevail.

Define Ukraine's prevailing over Russia.

[Florestan]

Any sort of a " win " for Putin would threaten all of Europe with war for as long as he lives. That's a pretty simple truth, really.

Do you imply that NATO is actually not a deterrent for Putin and if he has even half his way in Ukraine the next target(s) will be Poland, the Baltic States and Romania?

[ritter]

So has in Romania for that matter. During the first two or three months, it made the headlines and was covered extensively before any domestic issue was even alluded to. Now it's a third or fourth tier news.

And also, sadly, the outpouring of solidarity with the Ukrainian refugees is drying out. A close friend of mine is helping Caritas here in Spain in their support for Ukrainian families that find themselves in the awkward and terrible position of being asked to leave Spanish  homes that offered them shelter, after having been welcomed with open arms just a couple of months ago. It seems some of the families or individuals that enthusiastically offered shelter are now unable or unwilling to feed more mouths at their tables, and have grown tired of sharing their sitting rooms every evening with strangers with whom they can barely communicate.

[Karl Henning]

And also, sadly, the outpouring of solidarity with the Ukrainian refugees is drying out. A close friend of mine is helping Caritas here in Spain in their support for Ukrainian families that find themselves in the awkward and terrible position of being asked to leave Spanish  homes that offered them shelter, after having been welcomed with open arms just a couple of months ago. It seems some of the families or individuals that enthusiastically offered shelter are now unable or unwilling to feed more mouths at their tables, and have grown tired of sharing their sitting rooms every evening with strangers with whom they can barely communicate.

Bringing guests in an open-ended fashion is a great challenge.  The impulse was certainly big-hearted.

[Florestan]

And also, sadly, the outpouring of solidarity with the Ukrainian refugees is drying out. A close friend of mine is helping Caritas here in Spain in their support for Ukrainian families that find themselves in the awkward and terrible position of being asked to leave Spanish  homes that offered them shelter, after having been welcomed with open arms just a couple of months ago. It seems some of the families or individuals that enthusiastically offered shelter are now unable or unwilling to feed more mouths at their tables, and have grown tired of sharing their sitting rooms every evening with strangers with whom they can barely communicate.

I am not aware of any similar phenomenon in Romania (ie, the Romanian media do not report it) but I wouldn't be surprised by it. Menschliches, Allzumenschliches...

Honestly, anyone who really thinks this war will eventually result in a complete Russian defeat and capitulation and in Ukraine's getting back all their territories, including Crimea, is delusional.

[Que]

Zelenskyy's $750 billion ask will only grow.  More Ukrainians will die.  Russia will end up with more territory.  A settlement will be reached. 

Agreed. However, the problem at the moment is that Putin does not want to negotiate and needs an incentive to do so.
And then he needs reasons, a necessity even, to be be willing to compromise. As long as everything is going Putin's way, he won't budge.

[Todd]

Agreed. However, the problem at the moment is that Putin does not want to negotiate and needs an incentive to do so.
And then he needs reasons, a necessity even, to be be willing to compromise. As long as everything is going Putin's way, he won't budge.

The West has made no attempt to pursue a negotiated settlement.  Current policy is explicitly designed to keep the war going.  Perhaps private communications are different.

[LKB]

A, B, 3?

Good eye, I'll fix it.

[LKB]

...Define Ukraine's prevailing over Russia.

All Russian forces still extant ( aside from those which were in place in the disputed regions prior to February 24th ) withdraw to positions outside the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine, and all Russian offensive operations cease.

This has to be the result, anything less is capitulation.

[LKB]

The West has made no attempt to pursue a negotiated settlement.  Current policy is explicitly designed to keep the war going.  Perhaps private communications are different.

Always with the disingenuous verbiage, eh?

The West is assisting a democratic nation in its efforts to resist annihilation. As long as Putin is determined to " keep going " the West has no option but to continue the assistance.

[LKB]

Do you imply that NATO is actually not a deterrent for Putin and if he has even half his way in Ukraine the next target(s) will be Poland, the Baltic States and Romania?

Putin has already seen evidence of weakness and division among the leadership in the west.

Russian gas still flows into Europe, Turkey stalls Finland and Sweden, the US refuses to allow Poland to transfer surplus aircraft to Ukraine.

This gives Putin all he needs to manipulate NATO with the nuclear threat, even if that is in fact a non-starter.

I imagine his conclusion, which was probably already reached weeks ago, was something like:

When it comes down to the hard choices, they won't pull the trigger. They're pussies. And in war, pussies deserve only contempt.

So forget NATO, l expect Putin already has. This war must be won by Ukraine, explicitly and unambiguously, and the West should do everything possible to make it happen.

Otherwise, once Putin executes the slackers and reconstitute his forces, yes. He dangles his nukes, and starts carving up the Baltics.

[Todd]

Always with the disingenuous verbiage, eh?

The West is assisting a democratic nation in its efforts to resist annihilation. As long as Putin is determined to " keep going " the West has no option but to continue the assistance.

The West always has options.  More to the point, the US always has options.  US security is not imperiled by the status of Ukraine.  The US can let the entire country burn and let hundreds of thousands or millions die as a matter of policy.  It can do that.  It has done that with other countries.  The idea that The West and the US, in particular, has no choice but to pursue its current policy is factually wrong as well as being preposterous on its face.

The West is actively engaged in a proxy war in Ukraine.  It has made no public attempt to pursue a negotiated settlement.  The US is directing the effort.  The US alone has the power to cease shipments of American weapons systems and offer to rescind sanctions in exchange for a temporary cessation of Russian military action so a settlement can be pursued.  The US has not even publicly made that option available, let alone acted on such an approach.  Some leaders have been uncommonly candid about the goals of US policy, as when Secretary of Defense Austin publicly stated that a US policy goal is to weaken Russia.  The selected theater is Ukraine.  US policy objectives are not benign.  Unfortunately for Ukrainians, US efforts will not suffice to inflict the wished for (by some) harm on Russia, resulting in it becoming a weak regional power that poses no threat, and more will suffer and die as a result of the proxy war, and the disruptions caused in energy and agricultural markets will impose (and are already imposing) very serious consequences on countries not involved in any way in the war.  It is convenient to blame this all on Russia, but it is also a flat out lie.  Also, contrary to triumphalist hopes, current policy will accelerate the deterioration of some international institutions and will further intensify attempts to move away from the dollar dominated international financial system.  An expanded NATO is not worth the cost.

This war must be won by Ukraine, explicitly and unambiguously, and the West should do everything possible to make it happen.

Define victory, explicitly and unambiguously. 

[LKB]

...Define victory, explicitly and unambiguously.

I did that already, in my reply to Florestan. Four posts up, l think.

[Todd]

I did that already, in my reply to Florestan. Four posts up, l think.

Your definition of "victory" includes a concession to Russia and does not mention reparations at all.  Your definition would likely invite contempt from the Russians, and all that implies from one of your prior posts. 

No matter, that will not happen.