Europe at War

[drogulus]

If you have to choose between a stuff-up and a conspiracy, it's usually a stuff-up. At least in the public sector.

     Generally yes, however Russia is employing the false flag gambit repeatedly in this war.

     

[drogulus]

     Ukraine Brutally Trolls Weeping Russian Tourists Fleeing Crimea With Bananarama Video

     

[drogulus]

     In HARMs way

     The Ukes are mounting US AGM 88 missiles on MIG 29s, and they have attacked Russian SAM radars with them. This is a very uh oh thing, as SAMs are useless when the radars are destroyed.

[BasilValentine]

     Ukraine Brutally Trolls Weeping Russian Tourists Fleeing Crimea With Bananarama Video

     

There's another humorous aspect to this for me. The strike against the airbase was executed with surgical precision, and were they ready to claim responsibility, the Ukrainians could have added "Don't worry. Our soldiers aren't incompetent enough to endanger civilians.

[drogulus]

     Why don't the Russian tourists apply for refugee status? Sure, they might not be accepted but at least it's worth a shot.

[LKB]

There's another humorous aspect to this for me. The strike against the airbase was executed with surgical precision, and were they ready to claim responsibility, the Ukrainians could have added "Don't worry. Our soldiers aren't incompetent enough to endanger civilians.

It might be an extraordinarily rude awakening for the Russians if Ukranian pilots wind up with western aircraft.

https://www.defensenews.com/air/2022/07/21/ukraine-says-its-air-force-needs-western-fighter-jets-and-the-us-is-preparing-to-help/

[MusicTurner]

     Why don't the Russian tourists apply for refugee status? Sure, they might not be accepted but at least it's worth a shot.

Numbers are limited, but doubled this year in DK, for example. I guess that if seeking asylum, it's a goodbye to the Motherland, possibly for decades, or maybe forever.

That's one of the problems with say implementing a complete visa ban for Russians from the EU, which is now being discussed; how would politically active people or asylum seekers still have a reasonable range of options to get away ... besides the principal question of the individual's alleged share of the collective guilt, in the actions of a dictatorship, that would partly be implied in such a ban.

[LKB]

Good point.

This is wholly Putin's war, and the Russians are paying for it with their sons/ fathers/ brothers etc. They can be imprisoned for objecting, criticizing the Russian military or questioning Putin himself.

War results in victims both direct and indirect, and to hold the Russian population generally  accountable to any extent would be a great wrong.

[drogulus]

     I like Russians and would like to see them come to the US. I'd be willing to accommodate Russians and Ukrainians, lots of them.

[drogulus]

     HARMs II, The Adventure Continues

     I checked in with Cap & Co. where they were discussing how AGM 88s could be used by ancient MIGs. One of the crew (it sounded like Damp) mused that some of these planes made their way to the US for mods to enable the use of the missiles. He even said out loud "Skunk Works"! Yeow! That's like the Vatican!!

     

[Madiel]

This is wholly Putin's war, and the Russians are paying for it with their sons/ fathers/ brothers etc. They can be imprisoned for objecting, criticizing the Russian military or questioning Putin himself.

One of the issues being his refusal to actually call it a "war". There's a media report here today that Russia is struggling for troops a bit, but also that one of the reasons that's happening is Putin resisting having a full mobilisation of his forces, because it would be unpopular within Russia. You can't keep pretending you're just having an "operation" once the whole army is involved.

[LKB]

And with the attack on that airbase in the Crimea, those vacationing Russians who fled will have a story to tell, one which probably won't be compatible with Putin's fiction.

Then again, those folks might be welcomed home by the FSB, who will thoughtfully provide an approved account to be used in explaining their truncated trips to interested parties. 

[MusicTurner]

One of the issues being his refusal to actually call it a "war". There's a media report here today that Russia is struggling for troops a bit, but also that one of the reasons that's happening is Putin resisting having a full mobilisation of his forces, because it would be unpopular within Russia. You can't keep pretending you're just having an "operation" once the whole army is involved.

'A bit of a problem' including offering convicts, also murderers, the possibility to be released and get money for participating in the war (apparently 1500 so far); and mercenary groups like Wagner being finally recognised as military groups that also participate officially, besides just doing the other dirty or covert jobs they've specialized in before.

Overall, the Russian losses and soldiers have very much been from the outer, poorer provinces - another means of trying to keep the middle or well-off classes somewhat less troubled by the war.

[Madiel]

Yes, the offer to convicts was part of the story I was reading.

[Que]

That's one of the problems with say implementing a complete visa ban for Russians from the EU, which is now being discussed; how would politically active people or asylum seekers still have a reasonable range of options to get away ... besides the principal question of the individual's alleged share of the collective guilt, in the actions of a dictatorship, that would partly be implied in such a ban.

I'm not sure is this an issue of collective guilt, in myopinion more a question of collective awareness.

I totally get the unease with the Russian elite - because ordinary Russians don't go to Western countries for vacationing or shopping - pretending that it is business as usual. Isn't disculpating shoulder shrugging a little bit too easy?

Those looking for asylum can go to any Western embassy.

[MusicTurner]

The asylum process seems to be diverse. Apparently, on average, only 1/5 of Russians seeking asylum in the EU in 2021 were approved (and 0 in Denmark), but conditions might be different for 2022, with more tolerance. However, for example, most Chechens seeking asylum would actually make the trip to EU and seek asylum there. Also, a good deal of Russians will get a visa firstly, valid for only 90 days, and then seek asylum or citizenship afterwards.

The exact numbers in the exodus is unknown, but it is certainly above 200,000 - 300,000 - some are suggesting of which maybe 15,000 millionnaires, who often just seek a less controlled life abroad.

EDIT: I'd assume Western embassies in Russia are under surveillance.

[Que]

The exact numbers in the exodus is unknown, but it is certainly above 200,000 - 300,000 - some are suggesting of which maybe 15,000 millionnaires, who often just seek a less controlled life abroad.

That's a large number, more than I expected!

[MusicTurner]

That's a large number, more than I expected!

Yeah, but it's complicated, because some are also just off to work etc. There are better sources and more detailed attempts at clarification, but I can't post links or research much in depth these days.

[Que]

Orbán has used his "special relationship" with the Kremlin to Hungary's advantage:

"Hungary says Russia has started delivering additional gas to the country following a July visit to Moscow by its foreign minister.

Hungary's foreign ministry said on Saturday that trade negotiations with Moscow "led to an agreement", resulting in Russia's Gazprom starting to deliver "above the already contracted quantities" on Friday to the European Union member, Agence France-Press reported.

Ministry official Tamas Menczer said on his Facebook page: "It is the duty of the Hungarian government to ensure the country's safe supply of natural gas, and we are living up to it."

In the first phase, an additional volume of 2.6m cubic meters a day would arrive from the south through the TurkStream pipeline until the end of August, Menczer said, adding that negotiations were under way for September deliveries."

[milk]

I wasn't looking for this and I don't normally watch this YouTube show. I do not know how reliable this person is who bills himself as a former CIA spy: Andrew Bustamante. But, I was intrigued by the title, "former CIA spy analyzes Putin and the war in the Ukraine." Well, it's not good news for those hopeful for the Ukraine if you take what this person is saying seriously. It's an interesting conversation either way I think, if for no other reason than to try to discern if it is serious analysis. He says there's a 70% chance Russia wins, and he's not gleeful about it. Anyway, I'm very curious what those here who think the war is a good idea might say in response to it.
https://youtu.be/t5HDD6e7mn4//

*eta: echos of Todd: (20:02) "...the Unites States doesn't really have any economic vested interest in the Ukraine..."