Europe at War

[Todd]

It will take about a year to replace Russia as a source of fossil fuels.

That is wishful thinking.

[Todd]

Yeah, don't cut-and paste the same phrase devoid of context twice, once the original has been rebutted. (By all means disagree with the rebuttal, but don't make out the rebuttal wasn't previously posted)

The World Economic Forum states that EU energy imports from Russia in 2021 were $108 billion.  This is a reduction from $173 billion in 2012.  There has already been a very large reduction in the last decade.  The idea that energy imports can be reduced to a level that equates to energy independence from Russia within twelve months requires a belief in magic. 

[Madiel]

For only one thing: "bits of Ukraine" does not belong to the EC to bargain with.

This has not exactly stopped European powers in the past, unfortunately.

But I do think we are a long way away from any such notion in the present.

[Mandryka]

About 1

Can you explain your reasoning? How did you get to that idea?

[Mandryka]

There are two issues. One is whether Europe can get enough non Russian gas to meet all its demand. The other is the cost of that gas. Even if supply is assured, if the cost is high, it's a serious problem, arguably the more serious problem. The EU will negotiate with Russia and buy affordable gas from them, I expect.

[Todd]

There are two issues. One is whether Europe can get enough non Russian gas to meet all its demand. The other is the cost of that gas. Even if supply is assured, if the cost is high, it's a serious problem, arguably the more serious problem. The EU will negotiate with Russia and buy affordable gas from them, I expect.

From the Council of the EU on July 26, 2022:

Member states commit to reducing gas demand by 15% next winter

Member states agreed to reduce their gas demand by 15% compared to their average consumption in the past five years, between 1 August 2022 and 31 March 2023, with measures of their own choice.

Reductions are voluntary.  Exceptions may be granted. 

In May, the EU mentioned 2027 as the preferred deadline to achieve energy independence from Russia, but the budgetary commitment is about €300 billion, which is nowhere near enough to achieve that goal.  Per the World Economic Forum, Germany is targeting as early as mid-2024 to become independent of Russian energy, though that is an aspirational target.  A recent study out of the UK estimates that Europe may be able to eliminate all reliance on Russian energy by 2030.  No one in the real world has ever mentioned a one year timeline for anything.

Of course, a recession is looming, which will blow up those targets.

[Spotted Horses]

Canada is to use wind farms to generate hydrogen and ship it across the Atlantic to Germany.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-23/germany-taps-boundless-fuel-potential-in-canada-hydrogen-deal

[Todd]

Canada is to use wind farms to generate hydrogen and ship it across the Atlantic to Germany.

Starting in 2025, if everything goes to plan.  Which never happens.  More likely, material deliveries will occur after Indian GDP has surpassed German GDP.

[Spotted Horses]

Starting in 2025, if everything goes to plan.  Which never happens.  More likely, material deliveries will occur after Indian GDP has surpassed German GDP.

Sometimes things do go according to plan. The thing that always deflates renewable energy projects is low energy cost of fossil fuels. The trend may move in the other direction.

[Todd]

Sometimes things do go according to plan.

But usually they don't. 

Is the Canada-Germany 'hydrogen deal' overly ambitious?  The Canada-Germany Hydrogen Alliance is part of a wider deal that includes batteries and raw materials. Many details remain unclear, but the 2025 target for first deliveries is ambitious, says Paul Martin, the founder of the Hydrogen Science Coalition.

Hey, ambition is good. 

[Spotted Horses]

The chairman of Lukoil (who opposed the Ukraine war) died after falling out of a window.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62750584

I wish people who oppose Putin weren't so clumsy.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

The chairman of Lukoil (who opposed the Ukraine war) died after falling out of a window.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62750584

I wish people who oppose Putin weren't so clumsy.

Interesting how hospital windows are able to be opened?

Years ago I remember learning the term "defenestration" (at that time in connection with Prague).

PD

[Que]

Is Russia worried that Moldova, perhaps with the help of Ukraine, will move on Transnistria if the Ukranian offensive in the south would be successful?

The Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has warned Moldova that any actions seen as endangering the security of Russian troops in the breakaway region of Transnistria would be considered an attack on Russia.

Russia has stationed peacekeeping troops in Transnistria since the early 1990s, when an armed conflict saw pro-Russian separatists wrest most of the region from Moldovan control. Russian forces also guard a large ammunition dump in the region.Russia has said its army is there to maintain peace and stability, but Moldova wants Moscow to withdraw its forces. In April, tensions in Moldova soared after a series of sporadic attacks were reported in Transnistria.

In an address at Russia's top foreign affairs school, Lavrov said:

"Everyone should understand that any action that would threaten the security of our troops (in Transnistria) would be considered under international law as an attack on Russia."

Of course, Lavrov is talking out of his ass... "Under international law" Transnistria is not part of Russia, but of Moldova.

[LKB]

When it comes to Russian politicians, talking out of one's a$$ is essentially the national pastime. They are the " masters " in that department.

[Que]

When it comes to Russian politicians, talking out of one's a$$ is essentially the national pastime. They are the " masters " in that department.

https://internationalaffairs.co/current-affairs/the-undignified-fall-of-russias-once-dignified-diplomatic-corps/

[71 dB]

It was been quiet for a month or so but I checked the NATO ratification process: Thanks Czech Republic! 
🇨🇿

Six countries left...

[MusicTurner]

Gazprom allegedly now stopping for gas to Germany indefinitely, not just until Saturday, officially due to 'some very basic technical problems' with Nord Stream 1.
This was about 5 minutes after the G7 agreeing to set up a limit for Russian oil prices.


EDIT: apparently, in August, the Russian share of Europe's imported gas had already shrunk to just 10%

https://twitter.com/A_Schroeder1985/status/1565648295787102208

[milk]

Chomsky's view of what caused the war in case anyone is interested:
https://youtu.be/b8Ji_IzKFHo

[MusicTurner]

Recent interviews with him are more of a documentation of how he has gone senile and even more extreme, is completely out of touch with the events - including with the mood in the Ukrainian population, and regarding the amount of Russian atrocities. Do you consider him as a reliable observer?

[Todd]

Recent interviews with him are more of a documentation of how he has gone senile

I believe this is called an ad hominem attack.

Out of curiosity, how do you think that you, specifically, are in touch with events in Ukraine, specifically the mood of the Ukrainian population?  Twitter?