Europe at War

[Madiel]

Lately I have become very pessimistic. We are heading to WW III and we all may have very little time left. We may experience the last Christmas literally. Russia is destroying the whole World and has become the biggest terrorist state surpassing even the US and Israel. Russia shows zero intent to de-escalate, zero interest in even their own citizens let alone anyone else! All they care about is the glory of Russia being the country that caused the end off humanity.

I don't see Russia escalating beyond its capacity, though. They couldn't manage to defeat Ukraine, a smaller country, when they seem to have optimistically believed they were going to roll into Kyiv within a very short space of time. Surely even Putin and his strongest allies can perceive the problems they would face engaging in direct conflict with countries that are better resources than Ukraine.

[Florestan]

Lately I have become very pessimistic. We are heading to WW III and we all may have very little time left. We may experience the last Christmas literally. Russia is destroying the whole World and has become the biggest terrorist state surpassing even the US and Israel. Russia shows zero intent to de-escalate, zero interest in even their own citizens let alone anyone else! All they care about is the glory of Russia being the country that caused the end off humanity.

You could easily be right Poju, I think it needs but little, and we are on the brink of disaster.

Keep calm, guys. The relatives and offsprings of Russian officials and oligarchs live, study, work and go shopping in New York, London or Paris, not in Novosibirsk, Kazan or Vladivostok.

I don't see Russia escalating beyond its capacity, though. They couldn't manage to defeat Ukraine, a smaller country, when they seem to have optimistically believed they were going to roll into Kyiv within a very short space of time. Surely even Putin and his strongest allies can perceive the problems they would face engaging in direct conflict with countries that are better resources than Ukraine.

This, too.

[Karl Henning]

Annexation is to occur tomorrow:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63072113

Soon, we all may learn where the real huevos are located, Ukranians aside.

Return to the Sudetenland.

[Herman]

Keep calm, guys. The relatives and offsprings of Russian officials and oligarchs live, study, work and go shopping in New York, London or Paris, not in Novosibirsk, Kazan or Vladivostok.

The very very rich have been building armageddon shelters for some time.
There seems to be the illusion that there's a way of starting anew with only the fortunate after a worldwide disaster.

On the other hand, a Ceausescu picture of Putin under a very long table would perhaps be better.

[Florestan]

a Ceausescu picture of Putin under a very long table would perhaps be better.

I don't get the idea, could you please explain?

[Todd]

Fourth leak found on Nord Stream pipelines, Swedish coastguard says

[Florestan]

For each one of us, especially past a certain age, death is a possibility even without WWIII: heart failure, stroke, car accident, home accident --- there's a whole lot of occurences which might bring it and whose probability in the next 24 hours or the next week is much higher than a Russian nuke killing us, yet none of us worry too much, if at all, about them. Let's just keep on living and enjoying our lives, they are short anyway and will inevitably come to an end, Putin or no Putin.

[Scion7]

... unless, of course, you have discovered that "the blood is the life" ..... and live in a remote castle in the Borgo Pass . . . and feast on Romanian peasant girls . . .

[Florestan]

... unless, of course, you have discovered that "the blood is the life" ..... and live in a remote castle in the Borgo Pass . . . and feast on Romanian peasant girls . . .

Too much palinka today for you, maybe?   

[71 dB]

I don't see Russia escalating beyond its capacity, though.

Well, Russia seems to be capable and willing to cause serious damage to European infrastructure. Even if they don't escalate any further the situation is really really bad.

They couldn't manage to defeat Ukraine, a smaller country, when they seem to have optimistically believed they were going to roll into Kyiv within a very short space of time.

Yes, but they have cause unspeakable damage to Ukraina forcing millions of Ukrainian to flees their own country not to mention the hidious war crimes. That's just Ukraine. In Europe they have cause inflation, energy crises and possibly increased popularity of fascist far right groups in politics which will be very harmful. War itself is horrible, whether you win it or not.

Surely even Putin and his strongest allies can perceive the problems they would face engaging in direct conflict with countries that are better resources than Ukraine.

It doesn't look like they do...

[71 dB]

Keep calm, guys. The relatives and offsprings of Russian officials and oligarchs live, study, work and go shopping in New York, London or Paris, not in Novosibirsk, Kazan or Vladivostok.

I don't live in New York, London or Paris. 

[Herman]

a Ceausescu picture of Putin under a very long table would perhaps be better.

I don't get the idea, could you please explain?

Ceausescu, the general secretary of the Romanian Communist Party from 1965 to 1989, the de facto leader of the country, was shot on Christmas Day 1989 and, as things go, the picture of him dead, on the pavement, was shown on tv, to assure the Romanian people the Ceausescu era was over.

[Herman]

For each one of us, especially past a certain age, death is a possibility even without WWIII

And some of us have young children, who deserve a life ahead.

[71 dB]

For each one of us, especially past a certain age, death is a possibility even without WWIII: heart failure, stroke, car accident, home accident --- there's a whole lot of occurences which might bring it and whose probability in the next 24 hours or the next week is much higher than a Russian nuke killing us, yet none of us worry too much, if at all, about them. Let's just keep on living and enjoying our lives, they are short anyway and will inevitably come to an end, Putin or no Putin.

Yes, but heart failure only kills myself, not billions caused by nuclear holocaust.

[Todd]

The end is nigh.

Expanding NATO was a dumb idea, after all. 

Oh well.

[Todd]

Germany faces a looming threat of deindustrialisation

Almost 80 years later Vladimir Putin might achieve some of what Morgenthau, whose parents were both born in Germany, had in mind. By weaponising the natural gas on which Germany's mighty industrial base relies, the Russian president is weakening the world's fourth-biggest economy and its third-biggest exporter of goods.

Published before the four boom-booms, but even more pertinent now.  The reference to Morgenthau is over the top, but emphasizing Germany's reliance on Russian energy for industrial production is not.  A contraction of the largest economy in Europe complicates the war further.  Alternative supplies will take a long time to come online.  In the meantime, recession can lead to unrest and the election of more politicians not to the liking of the United States and its vassals.

Also, the best-case scenario for the pipeline sabotage is that the Russians did it.  If not, then the sabotage is an act of war against Russia by an actor capable of undertaking such an operation.  Not many actors can do that.  Second best case is that it was a non-NATO regional power.  The fact that the sabotage took place in international waters, just outside the territorial waters of Denmark, indicate that whoever is responsible knew precisely what they were doing.

[drogulus]

     Putin is threatening to issue more threats.

     Other countries monitor Russian nukes closely. We know what "threat threatening" is. Nothing changes on the ground. Maybe something moves closer to a threat threatened country like, say, Finland. A truck with a nuke goes towards a border. The truck doesn't do anything else. All the signs of enhanced readiness are absent, and to be clear Russia knows we know this. The weak of heart and mind are not reassured by explanation, and Russia knows this, too.

[Florestan]

Ceausescu, the general secretary of the Romanian Communist Party from 1965 to 1989, the de facto leader of the country, was shot on Christmas Day 1989 and, as things go, the picture of him dead, on the pavement, was shown on tv, to assure the Romanian people the Ceausescu era was over.

You do realize that, as a Romanian, I knew all that since long before you even heard about it, don't you?

My question was about this formulation of yours: "a Ceausescu picture of Putin under a very long table" which didn't make any sense.

You might have wanted to write "a Ceausescu-like picture of Putin laying on a very long table" --- and I hope you'll agree that laying on is very different than being under,.

Otherwise, agreed, just don't hold your breath.

[Karl Henning]

The very very rich have been building armageddon shelters for some time.

Rod Serling wrote a brilliant and chilling Twilight Zone episode on this theme.

[Spotted Horses]

Also, the best-case scenario for the pipeline sabotage is that the Russians did it.  If not, then the sabotage is an act of war against Russia by an actor capable of undertaking such an operation.  Not many actors can do that.  Second best case is that it was a non-NATO regional power.  The fact that the sabotage took place in international waters, just outside the territorial waters of Denmark, indicate that whoever is responsible knew precisely what they were doing.

The question is who would gain? Russia doesn't gain. They don't need to blow up the pipeline, all they need to do is stop pumping gas into it. If the pipeline is intact they can always hold out the option, "if you're nice to us we'll send gas again."

I'd say it benefits Ukraine, since now there is no benefit to placating Russia, since Russia can't send gas even if they want to.