Europe at War

[Todd]

The question is who would gain? Russia doesn't gain. They don't need to blow up the pipeline, all they need to do is stop pumping gas into it. If the pipeline is intact they can always hold out the option, "if you're nice to us we'll send gas again."

I'd say it benefits Ukraine, since now there is no benefit to placating Russia, since Russia can't send gas even if they want to.

My understanding is that the pipelines were not delivering gas to Europe when they were sabotaged.  Russia stopped delivering natural gas via Nordstream 1 last month, and Nordstream 2 was never brought online.  Both held pressurized gas, though. 

Ukraine would potentially benefit, but I do not know what their submarine capabilities are, and I doubt they would do so without buy-in from the US.  Russia could gain by prolonging the delay in the delivery of gas, causing more economic dislocations in Europe, with the attendant political and economic instability.  The US could benefit in the form of increased energy sales to Europe and a deterioration of the Russian economy.  The EU has vowed to get to the bottom of this.  Maybe they will.

Der Spiegel reported that last month the CIA informed the German government of the possibility of sabotage. 

[Spotted Horses]

My understanding is that the pipelines were not delivering gas to Europe when they were sabotaged.  Russia stopped delivering natural gas via Nordstream 1 last month, and Nordstream 2 was never brought online.  Both held pressurized gas, though. 

Ukraine would potentially benefit, but I do not know what their submarine capabilities are, and I doubt they would do so without buy-in from the US.  Russia could gain by prolonging the delay in the delivery of gas, causing more economic dislocations in Europe, with the attendant political and economic instability.  The US could benefit in the form of increased energy sales to Europe and a deterioration of the Russian economy.  The EU has vowed to get to the bottom of this.  Maybe they will.

Der Spiegel reported that last month the CIA informed the German government of the possibility of sabotage.

They can prolong the delay as long as they want by not putting gas in.

I don't know if a submarine would be required. A surface vessel could conceivably drop a mine that detonates by time delay.

[Todd]

They can prolong the delay as long as they want by not putting gas in.

There was obviously gas in the unused pipelines, hence the images one can see online.  I don't know pipeline operations, and what the repair timelines may be as a result.  Or what the claimed repair timelines may be as a result.  Repairs may take days, weeks, months, or maybe they cannot be completed until after winter is over. 

I don't know if a submarine would be required.

I used submarine in its most generic sense here, not meaning that a military submarine would be required.  My understanding is that the waters around the pipelines are fairly shallow and would make for easy military submarine detection.  I am unfamiliar with all the various sabotage options, their effectiveness, and the likelihood of detection when deploying mines from surface ships when compared to small, unmanned submersible to plant explosives, and so forth.  Maybe it's as simple as a few guys in small boats heading to a specific location and using easy to obtain and operate time delay mines.

The number of parties who could and would engage in sabotage is limited, and at this point no one knows who did it.  Maybe it is Ukraine.  Since I will not be shivering this winter as a result, I don't care too much, as long as it cannot be pinned on the US or another NATO country.

[Spotted Horses]

My general observation is that Russia is using the pipeline for blackmail, and it is to their advantage if Putin can say to the EU, "recognize our annexation of eastern Ukraine and we'll  have the sweet gas flowing to you by this time tomorrow." Now they can't do that.

[Todd]

My general observation is that Russia is using the pipeline for blackmail, and it is to their advantage if Putin can say to the EU, "recognize our annexation of eastern Ukraine and we'll  have the sweet gas flowing to you by this time tomorrow." Now they can't do that.

They will be able to do so after Nordstream 1 is operational again.  In the meantime, they get extended delays, plus the ability to blame sabotage on someone else, irrespective of who did it.  Now it is a question of who can absorb more economic pain.

The fact that the pipelines are owned by multiple companies from multiple countries, including Germany (~30% ownership), Holland, and France, means that whoever blew up the pipelines caused harm to western interests as well.

[Florestan]

The number of parties who could and would engage in sabotage is limited, and at this point no one knows who did it.  Maybe it is Ukraine.  Since I will not be shivering this winter as a result, I don't care too much,

I really wonder greatly why do you even bother to still keep posting in this thread, since of your own admittance absolutely nothing that occurs related to this war will affect you, short of a Russian nuclear missile hitting Portland.

[Todd]

Really, one womders why do you even bother to post in this thread, since of your own admittance absolutely nothing that occurs related to this war will affect you, short of a nuclear missile hitting Portland.

I thought you put me on your Ignore list.

[Florestan]

I thought you put me on your Ignore list.

Incorrect.

[Todd]

Incorrect.

So it was an empty public display of outrage.  Makes sense.

[Scion7]

There won't be a nuclear exchange. 
The American senator Graham had it right - if Putin tried to do this (he won't), he'd be eliminated.
Being one who has assembled and targeted nuclear missiles in the American Navy, I have had access to information you have not.
The commanders (Russian Marshals) and the senior COC of the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces are very professional.
And they, and the oligarchs that control the government, all know any use of nuclear weapons guarantees a d response in kind - they don't want their personal homes, families, etc., exterminated within 15 minutes of a general nuclear exchange, trust me.

So relax about this issue - even a disturbed megalomaniac like Putin cannot make this happen.

[Florestan]

So it was an empty public display of outrage.

I did put you on my Ignore list right away. The next day I undid the move.

I still really wonder greatly why do you even bother to still keep posting in this thread, since of your own admittance absolutely nothing that occurs related to this war will affect you, short of a Russian nuclear missile hitting Portland.

[Florestan]

The commanders (Russian Marshals) and the senior COC of the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces are very professional.
And they, and the oligarchs that control the government, all know any use of nuclear weapons guarantees a d response in kind - they don't want their personal homes, families, etc., exterminated within 15 minutes of a general nuclear exchange, trust me.

So relax about this issue - even a disturbed megalomaniac like Putin cannot make this happen.

My point exactly.

[Herman]

You do realize that, as a Romanian, I knew all that since long before you even heard about it, don't you?

"long before"? This was international news, and Romanians may have seen that image thirty minutes before it went around the world, but that's about it.

[Todd]

I still really wonder greatly why do you even bother to still keep posting in this thread, since of your own admittance absolutely nothing that occurs related to this war will affect you, short of a Russian nuclear missile hitting Portland.

It affects my portfolio on a short-term basis.  It also results in a huge amount of (usually entertaining) propaganda being, well, propagated by the corporate press and those who regurgitate it.

[Florestan]

It affects my portfolio on a short-term basis.  It also results in a huge amount of (usually entertaining) propaganda being, well, propagated by the corporate press and those who regurgitate it.

Got it. It's all entertainment for you, mixed with a passable financial annoyance.

[Todd]

Got it. It's all entertainment for you, mixed with a passable financial annoyance.

Is it existential for you, or something? 

What are you going to do about it?

[drogulus]

     The Ukes are closing the trap around Lyman.

     

[Florestan]

Is it existential for you, or something? 

It has the potential to become so if Russians launch nukes in Ukraine, a neghboring country.

Meanwhile, I am affected (as are hundreds of millions of people across Europe) by the high or soaring prices of oil, gas and power and by the prospect of a cold and dark winter because of power and heating cutoffs.

And of course, the saddest thing is the plight of the ukrainian people, killed and maimed by Russians, forced to flee their country or live under Russian occupation.

So, you, see, I have no reason to consider it entertaining or to declare I don't care too much about it.

What are you going to do about it?

I can do nothing to stop the war, if that's what you ask.

[Ganondorf]

Okay Todd, seriously, Back off. I know I havent always seen eye to eye with Florestan myself but youre going way over the line and just being needlessly provocative.

[LKB]

Okay Todd, seriously, Back off. I know I havent always seen eye to eye with Florestan myself but youre going way over the line and just being needlessly provocative.

Merely exercising his chief talent.