Europe at War

[Que]

U.S. liberal Democrats urge Biden to seek negotiated Ukraine settlement

Wishful thinking.

[71 dB]

Hungary did not ratify on Monday as claimed by some sources, but they have promised to do so this year. 

As for Türkeya goes, the US probably uses carrots and sticks.

[Todd]

Wishful thinking.

It's not even that, really.  It's posturing a few weeks before an election.  That written, with at least one house of Congress likely to switch parties, with the likely new Speaker saying that Republicans will likely reduce or eliminate additional appropriations beyond the ~$67 billion already allocated, with some Republicans in both houses questioning the war, and with some Democrats now willing to publicly question the war, pressure will start building on the President to change course.  The war is a secondary concern at most for almost all Americans - it's not even a material issue in the elections - it has not enjoyed lead story priority in the mainstream press for months, and a growing percentage of Americans want to reduce commitments to Ukraine, though most still support generic forms of economic and military aid.  Warmongers the world over, IRL and online, oppose a negotiated settlement, but eventually that is what will bring the war to an end.  I get it, Ukraine has to serve as a killing field for a little while longer before a settlement will be reached. 

[Karl Henning]

No, 'Russiagate' Wasn't the Hoax That Team Trump Claims It Was

[Todd]

From WaPo: Ukrainians say U.S. Democrats pressing for peace talks don't get Putin

The opening sentence more or less exposes the growing problem: "Members of Ukraine's political elite rejected demands by some congressional Democrats for negotiations with Russia to end the war, saying this was "not a viable option," after a group of liberals called on President Biden to push Kyiv for direct talks with Moscow."

Ukrainian elites do not get to set US policy; the tail does not wag the dog.

Fortunately, there is good news contained in the article: "But the letter inevitably adds to growing anxiety in Kyiv about maintaining crucial financial and military support from Washington, especially if Republicans regain control of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections. Some Republican leaders have signaled an intent to review U.S. support for Ukraine."

[drogulus]

     Ukraine is wise to stay out of US party politicking.

     Mongers of all stripes should understand that Poland is the most important actor on the continent after Russia and Ukraine. The Poles have an obvious interest in continuing their support for training and supply of the Ukrainians. Russia has to seriously consider Polish intervention if they decide to invade western Ukraine to interdict the Uke supply lines.

     The Poles are building the most powerful army in Europe. The Germans, bless their still slightly pacifistic hearts, can't match them. Fortunately for Germany, they are allied with the Poles, kind of the point of the alliance since it began. You keep the Russians out and the Germans in, the current variation on the original theme.

[Todd]

Progressives retract Ukraine letter to Biden after uproar

The Democratic Party is the Party of War.  (That's not new, of course.)  More Ukrainians will die as a result.  Oh well.

[Harry]

So Ukrainians are killed by Russian bullets, rockets and bombs, but actually the Democratic Party is behind all of it.

Oh, and of course the Ukrainians themselves, and their European allies... Did I forget anyone?

Todd is simply a provocateur and a troll, who believes in conspiracy theories. He is a fervent believer in the Trump doctrine and lives by it. And everyone is reacting to his posts. If we stop doing that he has no fertile soil to put the seeds of division in. The sooner we start doing that the better.

[Que]

Todd is simply a provocateur and a troll, who believes in conspiracies theories. He is a fervent believer in the Trump doctrine and lives by it. And everyone is reacting on his post. If we stop doing that he as no fertile soil to put the seeds of division in. the sooner we start doing that the better.

Right you are. Removed my post.

[Todd]

Todd is simply a provocateur and a troll, who believes in conspiracy theories. He is a fervent believer in the Trump doctrine and lives by it. And everyone is reacting to his posts. If we stop doing that he has no fertile soil to put the seeds of division in. The sooner we start doing that the better.

Incorrect across the board.  I should like to see the posts I have written that support conspiracy theories.  Also, I should like to know which Trump doctrines I live by.

[Todd]

Right you are. Removed my post.

In response to your deleted post, the US will continue to send financial support and military hardware to Ukraine and will not pursue settlement negotiations.  The war will be needlessly prolonged because of US actions and Ukrainian civilians will die as a result.  Russians will kill Ukrainians and Ukrainians will kill Russians.  Were it only soldiers dying, it would matter even less.

[drogulus]

 
     Germany can reopen its nuclear plants and keep them running through the winter. Are they warmongers enough to do it?

     They also have a few coal burning plants they can use. A deal with Canada for gas is in the works.

     The US can talk and send weapons at the same time, and in fact it's the best way to make the talks productive. I recommend a generous portion of sticks with the carrot.

[amw]

     Mongers of all stripes should understand that Poland is the most important actor on the continent after Russia and Ukraine. The Poles have an obvious interest in continuing their support for training and supply of the Ukrainians.

If I were Poland I would perhaps think twice about supplying weapons and military training to a nation whose political elite regards itself as the heirs of the OUN. Especially given that the current war has seen the empowerment of the "Poroshenkoites" at the expense of the "Zelenskyites". Russia is not the only potential threat to Poland after all. But I suppose it's none of my business really.

[JBS]

If I were Poland I would perhaps think twice about supplying weapons and military training to a nation whose political elite regards itself as the heirs of the OUN. Especially given that the current war has seen the empowerment of the "Poroshenkoites" at the expense of the "Zelenskyites". Russia is not the only potential threat to Poland after all. But I suppose it's none of my business really.

So you think the Ukraine, after whatever happens in the current war, might turn around and attack a member of NATO?

[milk]

Todd is simply a provocateur and a troll, who believes in conspiracy theories. He is a fervent believer in the Trump doctrine and lives by it. And everyone is reacting to his posts. If we stop doing that he has no fertile soil to put the seeds of division in. The sooner we start doing that the better.

I disagree. His view is serious and thinking it can be waved away is a mistake if you really believe he's wrong in some consequential ways. People are consistently upset with him around here; often I also don't buy into what he's saying. But I never get the feeling he's without facts and arguments. I also think it's a good idea to engage with a serious counter-view. Most of the things he's said on the last couple of pages really do need review. They probably need constant engagement. Should there be pressure to negotiate? What is the cost of war? Etc. I'm surprised to see Russia biting the dust but also worried about what happens next. Maybe It'd be good now if a chastened Russia comes to the table and everyone tries look at what their real interests are in this conflict. Maybe allowing Putin to salvage himself would be better than driving him to the edge. There never is a magic answer but at least now everyone can take a victory lap, as it were, leaving aside the mayhem that is there.
If not, why not?

[amw]

So you think the Ukraine, after whatever happens in the current war, might turn around and attack a member of NATO?

I'll put it this way: if the war ends tomorrow, Ukraine will be left with a massive economic crisis, heavily degraded infrastructure, massive numbers of overseas refugees and internally displaced persons, a significantly depleted military, and a central government with a limited ability to enforce its will. For every month the war drags on, the costs of rebuilding become higher, and with economic recession in the West, there's a low chance of the country receiving as much foreign aid as it would need (or of this foreign aid not being largely embezzled by corrupt officials, etc). Even if the legitimate Ukrainian government survives the postwar period, I can't imagine keeping groups like Right Sector in line will be its main priority, and once the patriotic fervor of glorious victory and/or tragic, heroic defeat dies down, they'll have a lot of disaffected people to recruit from. There are already reported cases of discrimination and prejudice against Ukrainian refugees in Poland. It would not be hard for a dedicated actor to fully reopen those old wounds.

In general, Western countries have a proven track record of providing weapons and training to extremist political formations for the purposes of fighting the Russians/Soviets/Chinese/Iranians/etc and then having this blow up in their faces (sometimes literally) once the Russians/Soviets/Chinese/Iranians are no longer in the picture.

But again, who knows. Maybe we know what we're doing this time.

[Florestan]

I disagree. His view is serious and thinking it can be waved away is a mistake if you really believe he's wrong in some consequential ways. People are consistently upset with him around here;

It's not that much what Todd says*, but how he says it that it's insufferable for most people. His phrasing, his style of arguing, his superciliousness, his snide one-liners, his playing the smart-arse (the latest example being in the Liz Truss thread) --- all are calculated to trigger the ire of the opponent and made him react in anger; said reaction is then treated the same way, thus prolonging a vicious circle in which he openly revels. This is the very definition of trolling.

*although, to see someone, who repeatedly and emphatically stated that the fate of Ukraine is of no concern whatsoever to him and he wouldn't care even if Russians nuke it because it won't affect him in the least, expressing now great concern about the lives of Ukrainian civilians smells hypocrisy from afar.

[Todd]

I disagree.

Most GMG posters want an echo chamber and they are only ever comfortable with opinions and writing styles that comply with their narrow worldviews.  This is very common on the internets.

*although, to see someone, who repeatedly and emphatically stated that the fate of Ukraine is of no concern whatsoever to him and he wouldn't care even if Russians nuke it because it won't affect him in the least, expressing now great concern about the lives of Ukrainian civilians smells hypocrisy from afar.

Then you misunderstand my posts, which may be partly attributable to English not being your first language.  I do not care about the Ukrainian people, or the Russian people, or the Romanian people, for that matter, any more than the Yemeni, the Syrians, the Congolese, etc.  GMG posters in general moralize rather a lot, and yet, rather than emphasizing an approach that brings cessation to war and hence the suffering of the Ukrainian people, they openly and proudly support war and death and destruction.  Non-American posters amplify their obvious hypocrisy by demanding that Americans pay for it. 

I'll put it this way: if the war ends tomorrow, Ukraine will be left with a massive economic crisis, heavily degraded infrastructure, massive numbers of overseas refugees and internally displaced persons, a significantly depleted military, and a central government with a limited ability to enforce its will. For every month the war drags on, the costs of rebuilding become higher, and with economic recession in the West, there's a low chance of the country receiving as much foreign aid as it would need (or of this foreign aid not being largely embezzled by corrupt officials, etc).

Russia has already achieved some long-term war aims, which is one of the reasons why repeated proclamations about potential victory of Ukraine are basically pointless.  People should remember that Zelensky begged for $750 billion in reconstruction aid months ago.  The number is much higher now, and given Ukraine's well-publicized systemic corruption, any aid that pours in will go first to lining pockets of righteous allies.  Swathes of Ukraine have been demolished and will not be rebuilt for decades.  Even if Ukraine becomes a partner of The West, it is hobbled.  That can serve the Russians and The West well.  Ukraine is a useful killing field, as this entire year has demonstrated.

Maybe we know what we're doing this time.

Probably.

[71 dB]

Todd is simply a provocateur and a troll, who believes in conspiracy theories. He is a fervent believer in the Trump doctrine and lives by it. And everyone is reacting to his posts. If we stop doing that he has no fertile soil to put the seeds of division in. The sooner we start doing that the better.

I have had Todd on ignore for a long time now and it has definitely eased the mental burden. I only get a glimpse into his twisted mind when someone quotes his posts. On non-political threads I may even look up his post behind the curtain of ignore. If it is about music or audio gear etc. he is just a harmless regular Joe, but when it is about politics, he is most in-Todd-lerable Tucker Carlson of GMG. 

[Todd]

I have had Todd on ignore for a long time now and it has definitely eased the mental burden. I only get a glimpse into his twisted mind when someone quotes his posts. On non-political threads I may even look up his post behind the curtain of ignore. If it is about music or audio gear etc. he is just a harmless regular Joe, but when it is about politics, he is most in-Todd-lerable Tucker Carlson of GMG. 

There are several endearing traits of GMG.  One is the public display of outrage.  They are common, and they include public announcements of departure, account deletion, and proclamations of use of the ignore feature.  These are all the more endearing because the people who engage in these behaviors purport to be highly educated, as well as virtuous.