Europe at War

[Que]

The matter seems settled indeed but even if the missile had been fired by Russians it would still not have been a casus belli unless one could have proven beyond any reasonable doubt that it was intentionally targeted at Polish territory and not an accident --- a rather impossible task. Russia's moral responsibility still remains, though, because without their invasion and war those two unfortunate Polish persons (who were in the wrong place at the wrong time) would not have died.

Not contradicting your assessment, but Russia does intentionally pick targets that are close to the Polish border.

It's surprising that something like this hasn't happened sooner.

But since the targets were civilian in a war that is illegal, the whole thing is a violation of international law anyway.. ..


PS It was a Russian made Ukrainian defense missile that went astray.

[Florestan]

It's surprising that something like this hasn't happened sooner.

Yep.

But since the targets were civilian in a war that is illegal, the whole thing is a violation of international law anyway.. ..

The whole invasion is a violation of international law and a breach of treaties to which Russia is a signatory part --- but in this incident, the victims were not targets but collateral victims and the missile was fired not by the Russians but by the Ukrainians. Let's not paint the Devil blacker than he is. This is not to say that a Russian-fired missile could not in the future accidentally hit Polish soil --- or Romanian, for that matter, we have a long border with Ukraine too.

[Florestan]

It was a Russian made Ukrainian defense missile that went astray.

Shit happens in war irrespective of the maker. Remember when the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade was hit by a NATO missile?

[Todd]

WWIII averted.  Whew!  Let the war continue.  No negotiations.  (Zelensky's proposal yesterday, complete with an absolutist fifth point and an absurdist eighth - ecocide joins the fray - was not a serious attempt, though the Russkies can take him up on it if they want.)  Warmongers can rejoice in the continuation of a more contained proxy war.

But since the targets were civilian in a war that is illegal, the whole thing is a violation of international law anyway.. ..

International law is a fiction only as good as its selective enforcement. 

[Madiel]

WWIII averted.  Whew!  Let the war continue.  No negotiations.  (Zelensky's proposal yesterday, complete with an absolutist fifth point and an absurdist eighth - ecocide joins the fray - was not a serious attempt, though the Russkies can take him up on it if they want.)  Warmongers can rejoice in the continuation of a more contained proxy war.

Your joking and mocking tone about such a serious subject is exactly why everyone thinks you're a troll.

It is also the reason why, if you've ever actually bothered to try to make a serious point here, the great majority of us wouldn't instinctively recognise that's what you were doing. It's the boy who cried wolf, only in the form of an adult male who thinks it's funny to constantly mock a discussion about matters of life and death.

You regularly belittle the fact that it's even being discussed, and yet you are the person who spends the most time prodding the discussion.

It's trolling. And the sooner you are kicked out of here the better.

[Harry]

Your joking and mocking tone about such a serious subject is exactly why everyone thinks you're a troll.

It is also the reason why, if you've ever actually bothered to try to make a serious point here, the great majority of us wouldn't instinctively recognise that's what you were doing. It's the boy who cried wolf, only in the form of an adult male who thinks it's funny to constantly mock a discussion about matters of life and death.

You regularly belittle the fact that it's even being discussed, and yet you are the person who spends the most time prodding the discussion.

It's trolling. And the sooner you are kicked out of here the better.

Agreed!

[BasilValentine]

WWIII averted.  Whew!  Let the war continue.  No negotiations.  (Zelensky's proposal yesterday, complete with an absolutist fifth point and an absurdist eighth - ecocide joins the fray - was not a serious attempt, though the Russkies can take him up on it if they want.)  Warmongers can rejoice in the continuation of a more contained proxy war.

International law is a fiction only as good as its selective enforcement.

Ukrainians want their territory back, the Russians are complying. Negotiation at its best. 

[Spotted Horses]

Ukrainians want their territory back, the Russians are complying. Negotiation at its best. 

Although the Ukrainians would prefer not to have their territory back as a smoldering ruin.

[drogulus]

     Ukraine is playing hardball in the early stages of "no negotiations" negotiations. I don't see why they shouldn't.

     

[Florestan]

Zelensky's stubborn denial of facts and insistence that the missile was Russian-fired is strange and will do him a great disservice. Yes, Russia is the aggressor and Ukraine is the victim, but this doesn't mean that Ukrainians are blameless heroes who cannot commit errors and blunders. Besides, nobody within NATO, Poland in the least, accused them of anything. NATO's Secretary General Stoltenberg even stated explicitly that it's not Ukraine's fault. I think it's high time Zelensky moderates his rhetoric and adopts a more realistic stance. I might be wrong but my impression is that his having being hailed ever since the war began as a hero sans peur et sans reproche eventually made him lose touch with reality a little.

[Todd]

Ukrainians want their territory back, the Russians are complying. Negotiation at its best. 

The families of dead Ukrainians and displaced Ukrainians may disagree.  Or they may agree.  In either case, negotiations are still preferable.

I wonder what the reconstruction tally is up to now, and how much it will grow as the war stretches on.  Europeans are gonna have to dig deep to foot the bill. 

[Madiel]

Zelensky's stubborn denial of facts and insistence that the missile was Russian-fired is strange and will do him a great disservice.

I hadn't been aware he was saying such things (I've heard the remarks of Biden, Polish leader and NATO leader). I agree that's not going to help (and the rest of your remarks, I just snipped this bit)

[amw]

In general, Western countries have a proven track record of providing weapons and training to extremist political formations for the purposes of fighting the Russians/Soviets/Chinese/Iranians/etc and then having this blow up in their faces (sometimes literally) once the Russians/Soviets/Chinese/Iranians are no longer in the picture.

But again, who knows. Maybe we know what we're doing this time.

I was linked to this news story today—for those who don't read Italian: members of a neo-Nazi group in Italy arrested for allegedly plotting terrorist attacks; one suspect reportedly received weapons and training from far-right militias in Ukraine and therefore one can potentially draw a throughline from Western military aid to Ukraine directly to these weirdos. (Assuming the police allegations prove to be true, anyway.)

This kind of thing will become more common over time, I suspect.

In good (?) news, snow and heavy rain all along the front line, so not much actual war has been happening (apart from Russian missile strikes), and probably not likely to be much fighting until the ground has frozen over and the skies clear up—if not longer.

[Todd]

one suspect reportedly received weapons and training from far-right militias in Ukraine and therefore one can potentially draw a throughline from Western military aid to Ukraine directly to these weirdos

CBS ran this story in August: Why military aid in Ukraine may not always get to the front lines.  (The story was revised/softened since initial release.)

During the early stages of the war, per this article, 60-70% of supplies sent to Ukraine did not reach planned final destinations.  (One can imagine the rejoinders that could be offered by avid war supporters.)  Some people will insist that things have dramatically improved, though no one knows by how much.  This seems like precisely the type of thing that should be formally investigated.  It's always good to remember that Ukraine is obscenely corrupt, the second most corrupt country in Europe after only Russia per Transparency International.  It seems very likely that billions (or more) in aid has been siphoned off, and when reconstruction aid starts pouring in, it will be like Russia in the 90s.  In the meantime, if assorted neo-fascist and/or terrorist organizations around the world get their hands on western weapons, well, that's just the cost of doing business.

[Todd]

From NBC: 'That's not the evidence': Ukraine clashes with its allies over Poland blast in a rare public split

Zelensky needs to remember who calls the shots.  It ain't him.

[Scion7]

.

[Todd]

From the Graun: Russia-Ukraine war live: remains of explosives found at Nord Stream pipeline blast site; death toll of latest Russian strikes rises

I am truly surprised to learn that explosives were found.  I remain convinced that the two pipelines ruptured spontaneously and coincidentally.

[drogulus]

     A gas pipeline exploded in St. Petersburg. Would this be the work of the same saboteurs who blew up the Nord Stream pipes? Who could do both, and of those who could who would act inside Russia?

     I'm supposing Ukraine isn't capable of the Nord Stream strike. The St. Petersburg strike is definitely something they could and would do, perhaps with help from Russians.

     

[Scion7]

No, besides being just an accident, this is far out of Ukraine's reach.  Crimea is about as far as they can 'range.'

[Madiel]

     A gas pipeline exploded in St. Petersburg. Would this be the work of the same saboteurs who blew up the Nord Stream pipes? Who could do both, and of those who could who would act inside Russia?

     I'm supposing Ukraine isn't capable of the Nord Stream strike. The St. Petersburg strike is definitely something they could and would do, perhaps with help from Russians.

   

There's no evidence in this case of sabotage. It's not as if gas pipeline explosions never happen unaided.