Russia-Wagner Clash

LKB · June 24, 2023, 12:29:46 AM

Apparently Prigozhin decided the time was right to force some sort of decisive change:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-66006142

If l were a betting man ( which l am ), I'd bet he'll be either dead, imprisoned or simply vanish within a week.

AnotherSpin · June 24, 2023, 03:49:35 AM

Quote from: LKB on June 24, 2023, 12:29:46 AMApparently Prigozhin decided the time was right to force some sort of decisive change:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-66006142

If l were a betting man ( which l am ), I'd bet he'll be either dead, imprisoned or simply vanish within a week.

And what was your bet on February 22, 2022?

LKB · June 24, 2023, 04:58:30 AM

Quote from: AnotherSpin on June 24, 2023, 03:49:35 AMAnd what was your bet on February 22, 2022?

I didn't post on 02/22/2022. This was my final post before the invasion:

February 20, 2022, 06:52:21 AM

I was skeptical for a while, but now that the " exercise " in Belarus has been extended and the Olympics are essentially concluded, I suspect Putin will pull the trigger between now and Tuesday.

Hopefully I'm wrong...

https://www.good-music-guide.com/community/index.php/topic,31510.0.html#msg1428049

Pohjolas Daughter · June 24, 2023, 05:10:51 AM

Quote from: LKB on June 24, 2023, 12:29:46 AMApparently Prigozhin decided the time was right to force some sort of decisive change:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-66006142

If l were a betting man ( which l am ), I'd bet he'll be either dead, imprisoned or simply vanish within a week.

Things are ramping up in Russia. God knows what will happen from here.

Anybody heard exactly which military sites the Wagner forces have taken and how significant they are?

PD

BWV 1080 · June 24, 2023, 06:13:51 AM

2021:Russia has 2nd most powerful army in the world

2022:Russia has 2nd best army in Ukraine

2023: Russia has 2nd best army in Russia

(Supposedly a Russian joke going around Twitter)

Karl Henning · June 24, 2023, 06:53:51 AM

Quote from: BWV 1080 on June 24, 2023, 06:13:51 AM2021:Russia has 2nd most powerful army in the world

2022:Russia has 2nd best army in Ukraine

2023: Russia has 2nd best army in Russia

(Supposedly a Russian joke going around Twitter)

Well, at least Putin will always have the US Republican Party.

BWV 1080 · June 24, 2023, 07:21:28 AM

Quote from: Karl Henning on June 24, 2023, 06:53:51 AMWell, at least Putin will always have the US Republican Party.

I propose we organize a MAGA volunteer legion to send over there to help him

Florestan · June 24, 2023, 07:51:54 AM

This whole Prigozhin/Wagner stuff is surreal. I laughed out loud the whole afternoon watching the news.

BWV 1080 · June 24, 2023, 07:57:55 AM

Good interview with Gary Kasparov

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/18662

Spotted Horses · June 24, 2023, 07:59:31 AM

This is serious, the force is reported to be in Lipetsk Oblast, half-way from Ukraine to Moscow.

I hope Prigozhin has google maps, because they're reporting a lot of road closures on the route he's taking, and they suggest an alternate.

Spotted Horses · June 24, 2023, 08:06:03 AM

I think this Prigozhin guy is probably worse than Putin, so if he has any chance I don't think this is good. Maybe they will neutralize each other and there will be a window for a popular revolt, like 1991, although that gave them Yeltsin, which didn't work out too well either.

Karl Henning · June 24, 2023, 08:11:22 AM

Quote from: BWV 1080 on June 24, 2023, 07:57:55 AMGood interview with Gary Kasparov

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/18662

Most interesting.

Karl Henning · June 24, 2023, 08:12:40 AM

Quote from: Spotted Horses on June 24, 2023, 08:06:03 AMI think this Prigozhin guy is probably worse than Putin, so if he has any chance I don't think this is good. Maybe they will neutralize each other and there will be a window for a popular revolt, like 1991, although that gave them Yeltsin, which didn't work out too well either.

Hard to forecast what a "best actual outcome" may be for Russia.

AnotherSpin · June 24, 2023, 08:35:19 AM

Quote from: Karl Henning on June 24, 2023, 08:12:40 AMHard to forecast what a "best actual outcome" may be for Russia.

Easy. Best actual outcome for Russia may be to stop the aggression and get out of Ukraine as soon as possible. Of course, territorial integrity of Ukraine should be re-installed, including Crimea. Russia should pay reparations to Ukraine. Also, Russia should pull out their quasi regimes from parts of Moldova and Georgia. Then Russia will get a chance to become a normal country.

AnotherSpin · June 24, 2023, 08:42:19 AM

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on June 24, 2023, 05:10:51 AMAnybody heard exactly which military sites the Wagner forces have taken and how significant they are?

PD

Prigozhin's army is advancing steadily towards Moscow, and has every chance of entering the city. The small number of troops which may be loyal to Putin (a serious Russian force is busy in Ukraine) is unable to prevent it, especially as some are already joining the side of rebels. Putin cannot move troops from Ukraine to defend Moscow because all routes are already controlled by Prigozhin's army. The Russian troops in Ukraine are completely demoralised and confused.

T. D. · June 24, 2023, 08:48:34 AM

Quote from: Spotted Horses on June 24, 2023, 08:06:03 AMI think this Prigozhin guy is probably worse than Putin, so if he has any chance I don't think this is good. Maybe they will neutralize each other and there will be a window for a popular revolt, like 1991, although that gave them Yeltsin, which didn't work out too well either.

[Emphasis added] Agreed. Prigozhin seems at least as a) kleptocratic; b) hawkish on Ukraine as Putin. I won't pretend to be able to predict what will happen.

AnotherSpin · June 24, 2023, 08:53:44 AM

Quote from: T. D. on June 24, 2023, 08:48:34 AM[Emphasis added] Agreed. Prigozhin seems at least as a) kleptocratic; b) hawkish on Ukraine as Putin. I won't pretend to be able to predict what will happen.

Both Putin and Prigozhin are bad. But it is not a fact that Prigozhin has crazy ideas about Ukraine like Putin. In Ukraine, his revolt is assessed with hope.

BWV 1080 · June 24, 2023, 08:55:11 AM

Quote from: AnotherSpin on June 24, 2023, 08:35:19 AMEasy. Best actual outcome for Russia may be to stop the aggression and get out of Ukraine as soon as possible. Of course, territorial integrity of Ukraine should be re-installed, including Crimea. Russia should pay reparations to Ukraine. Also, Russia should pull out their quasi regimes from parts of Moldova and Georgia. Then Russia will get a chance to become a normal country.

Sure, but the other, and perhaps more likely outcome would be civil war - like Libya with nukes

Karl Henning · June 24, 2023, 09:05:01 AM

Quote from: AnotherSpin on June 24, 2023, 08:35:19 AMEasy. Best actual outcome for Russia may be to stop the aggression and get out of Ukraine as soon as possible. Of course, territorial integrity of Ukraine should be re-installed, including Crimea. Russia should pay reparations to Ukraine. Also, Russia should pull out their quasi regimes from parts of Moldova and Georgia. Then Russia will get a chance to become a normal country.

That's the best outcome of the war for Ukraine, yes, but setting aside the war proper, there's a big question mark hanging over Moscow right now.

T. D. · June 24, 2023, 09:11:57 AM

This is funny / surprising.
A glossy spinoff of The Economist published this story on June 12! I (subscriber) got it via e-mail alert.

Likely to be paywalled. Perhaps you could open it in an "incognito window" (Chrome) or equivalent.

https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/06/12/abominable-showman-the-rise-of-wagners-yevgeny-prigozhin

Abominable showman: the rise of Wagner's Yevgeny Prigozhin
Putin created him. Could the outspoken mercenary become the next president?

[Added] The MAGAverse should also love this guy...

"(He also finally admitted to having founded a collective of online trolls that sought to interfere in the American elections in 2016 – another claim he had previously denied.)"