Author Topic: Coronavirus thread  (Read 219078 times)

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Offline Mandryka

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #5360 on: Today at 12:36:31 AM »
Singapore reports worst daily Covid case tally in more than a year

"[...]As of Tuesday, a total of 809 people were in hospital. Of these, 75 were seriously ill and required oxygen, and nine were in intensive care. The majority of seriously ill patients were older than 66, according to the Ministry of Health.

Eighty-one per cent of the entire population is fully vaccinated – excluding under-12s, it is 90% – and the number of seriously ill patients is fairly low overall. Just four people have died in the past 28 days, all of whom were unvaccinated, according to the health ministry.

However, the number of those seriously ill is increasing. The number of patients requiring oxygen doubled to 54 on Sunday from two days before, an important gauge to judge whether the medical system could get overwhelmed.[...]"

Sure, so now we’re in a real difficult area, but an unavoidable one IMO. First there’s the question of how many seriously ill covid patients the health system can support - complex because a health system is very big  and you can always find some room by moving the furniture around - you rob Peter to pay Paul.

And secondly, and much more problematically, you have to judge whether the health costs of an open society are counterbalanced by the social and economic benefits.

As I said, there is no avoiding these decisions - and there is no right answer IMO. The whole world is between a rock and a hard place.
« Last Edit: Today at 12:39:51 AM by Mandryka »
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Offline SimonNZ

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #5361 on: Today at 12:51:52 AM »
Hospitals in most countries have already been cut back so much over the last decades that they were operating at near or right on full capacity in non pandemic times.

And you can possibly find more rooms and perhaps you can create the infrastructure for those rooms and buy equipment in time - though highly unlikely - but they definitely can not magic up new doctors and nurses. Any retirees and qualified people who had changed jobs were already rounded up at the start of the outbreak. And burnout and infection mean the numbers can only go down.
« Last Edit: Today at 12:55:57 AM by SimonNZ »

Offline Mandryka

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #5362 on: Today at 12:56:02 AM »
Hospitals in most countries have already been cut back so they are operating at near or right on full capacity in non pandemic times.

And you can possibly find more rooms and perhaps you can create the I frastructure for those rooms and buy equipment in time - though highly unlikely - but they definitely can not magic up new doctors and nurses.

What you do is you tell people who need elective procedures they’ll have to wait longer. There may be staffing problems, people will have to do jobs which they’re not fully qualified for, they’ll learn on the job.  The quality of the public health service will reduce - that’s all part of the cost.

At some point the people with the power have to say: when hospitalisations reach X we just have to put the brakes on. But that X is a value judgement - it involves deciding what sort of health system you want to offer the people - how many compromises you are prepared to make. Longer wait for a hip replacement, some cancer patients slip through the net and die sooner as a result,  but society stays open longer.

« Last Edit: Today at 12:58:37 AM by Mandryka »
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Offline SimonNZ

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #5363 on: Today at 01:27:39 AM »
Well that's not a world I want to live on.

And you do realize that "the powers that be" there will be governments making and implementing and enforcing these sweeping changes, right?

Offline amw

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #5364 on: Today at 06:52:32 AM »
In relation to the vaccine passport thing: in New Zealand, I was asked for proof of vaccination several times, despite it not being legally necessary (& the rate of vaccination still being quite low at the time), including when travelling. At the moment, I'm overseas in a city with a well-publicised vaccine mandate, including a vaccine passport app and signs outside most establishments announcing that proof of vaccination will be necessary to enter. I've only once been asked to actually present proof of vaccination, didn't have it with me on that occasion, and was waved through anyway with the person (a cashier) saying "sorry, we just gotta ask everyone that".

In New Zealand almost everyone wore masks when required to. Here in the USA I've seen people remove masks even directly underneath signs instructing them to wear masks, with authority figures not caring (except again in one case, in a library; the librarian on duty did ask people to wear masks if they weren't, and they complied while within her line of sight, but probably not otherwise).

I'm not sure what this means or whether it is related to the very high COVID-19 death toll in the USA compared to other countries where mask-wearing is more socially acceptable and vaccine passports are more strictly enforced. This death toll may after all be more related to problems with the American health system, or other factors; I'd be curious to know what mask use, vaccine restrictions, etc are like in other countries that continue to be severely affected (Mexico, Russia, Iran) or countries that had very severe outbreaks which have been effectively reduced in severity (India, Indonesia, Peru).

Offline Mandryka

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #5365 on: Today at 09:18:26 AM »

Here in the USA I've seen people remove masks even directly underneath signs instructing them to wear masks, with authority figures not caring (except again in one case, in a library; the librarian on duty did ask people to wear masks if they weren't, and they complied while within her line of sight, but probably not otherwise).


That suggests to me that mask wearing is pretty unlikely to ever be an effective non pharmaceutical intervention in the USA. If there’s a lot of resistance it’s just never going to do much good. (Bit like illegal weed!)

As far as I know the impact of all NPIs is very poorly understood. For example, what was the impact of closing infant and junior schools on the epidemic?  I just don’t think anyone can answer that except by saying not very helpful things like “less of an impact than closing senior schools.” What we can say for sure is that closing infant and junior schools had a very negative effect on the kids!

Same for mask wearing in different contexts - when I was last in Nice it was compulsory to wear masks outside, on the Promenade des Anglais, with the fucking mistral blowing. I must say, I think it bodes ill for the future cooperation of the people when the politicians impose rules which obviously don’t make much sense.
« Last Edit: Today at 10:02:29 AM by Mandryka »
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen