Author Topic: Coronavirus thread  (Read 178580 times)

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Offline k a rl h e nn i ng

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4780 on: July 31, 2021, 03:24:14 PM »
Quote from: Dr. Irwin Redlener
The latest data is showing us something very important: that with the new Delta variant, the viral load, the amount of virus carried by an infected person, is the same whether or not that person has been vaccinated. This is a different situation than we understood before, with previous variants and the original virus, because all three of the vaccinations available here—Moderna, Pfizer, and J&J—were able to suppress the amount of virus. Not eliminate it, necessarily, but certainly we were seeing big differences in the virus load being carried by vaccinated versus unvaccinated. That no longer seems to be the case. Even though the vaccines will, by and large, prevent very serious illness or death in a person who gets infected with the Delta variant, it turns out that the vaccines do not suppress the amount of virus in a person’s body.

Which means that we can tell you as a vaccinated person, you’re very, very likely going to be protected from having to go on a ventilator or die. But what we can not say is that you’ll have less virus that you could then spread around. That makes you, as a vaccinated person, a potential threat to people who are still vulnerable. And we have a situation in the United States where we have 100 million people or so who have never had the disease, and who have never been vaccinated and who are vulnerable to getting infected by a vaccinated person who’s contracted the Delta variant.
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Offline k a rl h e nn i ng

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4781 on: July 31, 2021, 03:27:25 PM »
Points well taken. Here in the US, at least, atop legitimate concerns that the media ain't doing their job properly, is the kneejerk know-nothingism of the MAGA-verse, a depressingly true likeness of the disgraced former president's "intellect," feeding on conspiracy-theory clickbait, and serving as throughput for rubbish.

Pace Andrei, I don't see the US Left kissing experts' asses (what a fellow he can be) but looking for reliable information in an "information ecosystem" which numerous and tireless bad-faith actors continually pollute.

So we have what Trump has done intentionally to undermine the credibility of science, coupled with the fact that we keep learning new data.
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Offline Mandryka

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4782 on: July 31, 2021, 07:14:07 PM »


I think this is a good example of covid populism, an example of why science has got a bad name in the pandemic. The problem, and it is a serious one, is in the first clause: the latest data showing us something very important. The paper in question does not show anything - the sample is too small for that. It suggests something possibly, an area for further investigation, an unlikely possibility. But it doesn’t show anything.

But here we see it used to project the scientist Redlener into a prime media position, someone who knows an important fact, a voice who gives us a solemn warning. And we all know that fear means clicks, and clicks mean money.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2021, 07:36:06 PM by Mandryka »
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Offline Holden

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4783 on: July 31, 2021, 10:23:11 PM »
Yes. But the problem in the UK is not with the general public, it is with the media and with the scientists themselves. The media oversimplify and encourage people to think the worst, because fear sells papers and makes for clicks. And the scientists themselves, for political or other reasons, present their view as the truth when in fact it is highly debatable. 

The third problem, and maybe the most conceptually difficult, is that managing the crisis is much much more than science. The covid crisis is not caused by a virus. It is caused by the interaction of a virus with society. And so the best way to manage it is determined by both health science and social science - political, economic, psychological, moral -  considerations.

There is a concept in politics of populism -- the idea is that political leaders influence media to  present grossly oversimplified views about economy or crime or whatever, in order to curry favour with the public.  In the UK we see all the time covid populism from Government and Opposition, from civil service scientists and from independent scientists  -- a gross oversimplification of issues to do with border controls, masks, making schools safe, travel restrictions, employers' responsibilities, quarantine etc.

You and I are on the same page Howard and especially in the first paragraph. One phrase I like is "civil service scientists" and every country has one who is deemed to be an expert and their political motives are not questioned.
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Offline Stürmisch Bewegt

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4784 on: Today at 04:34:13 AM »
Welcome to my town, St. Louis, USA. This has gone far beyond mere sport, political preference, racism, or lack of education, etc : THIS is socio-pathology in action.  https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/01/us/st-louis-mask-meeting-covid-19-positive/index.html 
Leben heißt nicht zu warten, bis der Sturm vorbeizieht, sondern lernen, im Regen zu tanzen.

Offline Mandryka

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4785 on: Today at 06:37:28 AM »
There is, I think, something really strange happening in England, which isn't being taken up by the media. As far as I can see, hospital admissions have started to plateau.

Case numbers from testing figures are way below where people expected, no-one is sure why. But cases are hard to get a grip on, admissions data is a more secure indication of the progress of the epidemic.

If I'm right that it's plateauing, it's a mystery at the moment.
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Offline k a rl h e nn i ng

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4786 on: Today at 06:39:26 AM »
Still collecting and collating
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Offline MusicTurner

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4787 on: Today at 06:40:40 AM »
In DK, an official survey tells that 0.005% of vaccinated people experienced serious side effects of the vaccine so far, most of them temporary, however.

3.2 mio have had their two jabs, 1 mio have received only the first one yet, so 72% of the total population have had or begun vaccines.
« Last Edit: Today at 06:45:41 AM by MusicTurner »

Offline MusicTurner

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4788 on: Today at 06:54:12 AM »
Concerning the UK, our newspapers report that the virus is receding, probably due to the vaccine effect, yet a bit surprising concerning the opening up and Delta.

Here in DK, it's been rather stable for weeks, but the level is a bit too high, in spite of hardly any fatalities, about 750-1200 cases per day or 0.8 - 1.7 % of tested people, and we're hoping for it to drop. Delta is 95% of cases. Younger, unvaccinated people are now experiencing harder sickness.
« Last Edit: Today at 06:59:06 AM by MusicTurner »

Offline Herman

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4789 on: Today at 07:30:18 AM »
In DK, an official survey tells that 0.005% of vaccinated people experienced serious side effects of the vaccine so far, most of them temporary, however.

3.2 mio have had their two jabs, 1 mio have received only the first one yet, so 72% of the total population have had or begun vaccines.

Might as well take the world numbers if you want to look at side effects. 3.8 billion vaccine shots have been put into arms.

Offline MusicTurner

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4790 on: Today at 07:40:53 AM »
DK is almost only Pfizer and Moderna, and the registration of side effects likely very thorough. So far, vaccinations have been mostly carried through in countries with a modern and well-developed health sector, though.

But Bhutan for instance apparently has now reached 90% coverage with donations of AZ from India and Denmark.
« Last Edit: Today at 07:46:12 AM by MusicTurner »

Offline Mandryka

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4791 on: Today at 07:53:02 AM »
Concerning the UK, our newspapers report that the virus is receding, probably due to the vaccine effect, yet a bit surprising concerning the opening up and Delta.


Receding in the sense of growing more slowly, probably. If that's right, it is very unexpected.
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Offline 71 dB

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4792 on: Today at 11:57:54 AM »
3.2 mio have had their two jabs, 1 mio have received only the first one yet, so 72% of the total population have had or begun vaccines.

Here in DK, it's been rather stable for weeks, but the level is a bit too high, in spite of hardly any fatalities, about 750-1200 cases per day or 0.8 - 1.7 % of tested people, and we're hoping for it to drop. Delta is 95% of cases. Younger, unvaccinated people are now experiencing harder sickness.

Finland is not quite finished yet with the vaccinations: 3.7 million (66.2 %) people have gotten one or two jab(s) and of those 1.95 million (35.1 %) now including me both jabs. Cases have been skyrocketing from less than 100 per day mid June to 600-800 now. Delta variant + loosened restrictions for the summer + Covid fatigue among teenagers and young adults are mostly behind this, but since the cases are mostly people less than 40 years old while older people and risk groups have been so well vaccinated (of people over 70 almost 90 % are fully vaccinated), hospitalizations have stayed somewhat low.
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Offline Alek Hidell

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4793 on: Today at 03:15:24 PM »
Welcome to my town, St. Louis, USA. This has gone far beyond mere sport, political preference, racism, or lack of education, etc : THIS is socio-pathology in action.  https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/01/us/st-louis-mask-meeting-covid-19-positive/index.html

Ah, yes, I know it well. I'm from (almost) next door, in Oklahoma, and since it's an even redder state than Missouri you can imagine what's going on here. Our legislature has been busy passing laws banning mask mandates in public schools, universities, municipalities, and so on.

Meanwhile, back in reality: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/oklahoma-covid-cases.html
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Offline DavidW

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4794 on: Today at 05:21:43 PM »
Alek, here in South Carolina the budget has a proviso that if any school district institutes a mask mandate they will immediately lose their funding.

Offline k a rl h e nn i ng

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4795 on: Today at 05:39:55 PM »
Alek, here in South Carolina the budget has a proviso that if any school district institutes a mask mandate they will immediately lose their funding.

Jesus H. Bungee-Jumping Christ!
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[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
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