Author Topic: The hand of God, subject to Monetary Policy  (Read 1981 times)

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m_gigena

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The hand of God, subject to Monetary Policy
« on: September 14, 2007, 04:07:03 AM »
Original article here


   
King banks on Maradona

Ashley Seager
Wednesday May 18, 2005
The Guardian


Bank of England governor Mervyn King yesterday reached for an unusual ally to help him explain monetary policy to the populace at large - Diego Maradona.

The Argentinian footballer, Mr King acknowledged in the annual Mais lecture at City University's business school, is not usually associated with the theory of monetary policy.

A committed Aston Villa and England fan, Mr King recalled the England versus Argentina game in the 1986 World Cup when Maradona scored twice.

Article continues
"Maradona's first Hand of God goal was an exercise of the old 'mystery and mystique' approach to central banking. His action was unexpected, time-inconsistent and against the rules. He was lucky to get away with it," the governor said.

But the second goal, when the striker ran 60 yards from inside his own half, beating five England players before sticking the ball into the back of the net, was an example of the power of expectations in the modern theory of interest rates, Mr King added.

"The truly remarkable thing ... is that Maradona ran virtually in a straight line. How can you beat five players by running in a straight line?"

The answer is that the English players reacted to what they expected Maradona to do - run left or right - rather than what he actually did.

"Monetary policy works in a similar way," added Mr King, explaining that the Bank of England and other central banks around the world have experienced periods in recent years when they have had to do little because market interest rates, as opposed to official rates, have moved in expectation of a move in official rates, thereby doing some of the central banks' work for them.

Right now, for example, two-year fixed-rate mortgages, based on market interest rates, are moving down in response to the weakening outlook for consumer spending and the anticipation in markets that the Bank of England may be cutting rates later in the year.

Mr King said the point about the Bank's activity was the ability of the policy framework to condition inflation expectations.

Separately, official data showed inflation remained steady at 1.9% last month, just below the Bank's 2% target.

The Office for National Statistics said strong rises in utility and petrol prices were offset by weaker food prices and airfares.

The Bank of England said in its quarterly inflation report last week it expects inflation to head above its target in the next few months but to fall back later in the year as some temporary upward effects wear off.

Oil prices have fallen by nearly a fifth from the record levels hit this year.



Now he is used to explain monetary policy and rational expectations. Not bad for a guy who chose to burn his brain with crack.

Drasko

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Re: The hand of God, subject to Monetary Policy
« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2007, 04:26:09 AM »

"The truly remarkable thing ... is that Maradona ran virtually in a straight line. How can you beat five players by running in a straight line?"


Which shows us that Bank of England governor has the similar idea of what is straight line as English defenders had on that day, Maradona changed direction at least three times during that run...

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/Ltn13sMvJSs" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/Ltn13sMvJSs</a>

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/ukHgFNGL_Bw" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/ukHgFNGL_Bw</a>

m_gigena

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Re: The hand of God, subject to Monetary Policy
« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2007, 05:31:26 AM »
Maradona changed direction at least three times during that run...


No he didnt'. Watch again.

Drasko

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Re: The hand of God, subject to Monetary Policy
« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2007, 05:45:06 AM »
No he didnt'. Watch again.

At 00:48 he moves left, than before entering penalty zone to the right then again right when passing the goalkeeper, changes of direction are subtle but that is certainly not a straight line, check the view from camera behing the goal.

sidoze

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Re: The hand of God, subject to Monetary Policy
« Reply #4 on: September 14, 2007, 08:21:27 AM »
the changes are very slight, perhaps enough to deceive the English players, but still, I can see why they say straight line. For the most part he's on a beeline to the goal.

Now did anyone else see Messi's goal last season?

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/x0cVCq8rsiY" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/x0cVCq8rsiY</a>

Offline AnthonyAthletic

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Re: The hand of God, subject to Monetary Policy
« Reply #5 on: September 14, 2007, 08:52:51 AM »
But the second goal, when the striker ran 60 yards from inside his own half, beating five England players before sticking the ball into the back of the net, was an example of the power of expectations in the modern theory of interest rates, Mr King added.

Steve Hodge, Peter Reid, Kenny Sansom, Terry Fenwick & Terry Butcher  ;D

I could have ran past these Five and stuck that in the net....and so could you Tony  ;D  ;D  ;D

Messi's was just that little bit special, Maradona's was class but look at the FIVE muppets he was up against LOL

OK...injustice, Terry Butcher was a great defender!!

"Two possibilities exist: Either we are alone in the Universe or we are not. Both are equally terrifying"      (Arthur C. Clarke)

m_gigena

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Re: The hand of God, subject to Monetary Policy
« Reply #6 on: September 14, 2007, 01:21:01 PM »
the changes are very slight, perhaps enough to deceive the English players, but still, I can see why they say straight line. For the most part he's on a beeline to the goal.

The guy is an economist. He was thinking in terms of a linear regression, which was what adjusted better to explain the footballer route.