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Meltdown

Started by BachQ, September 20, 2007, 11:35:04 AM

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drogulus

#240
April 13, 2008, 06:49:04 AM
Quote from: Sean on April 12, 2008, 08:11:49 PM


drogulus, this problem is fundamental and massive: the window of opportunity to find something else has already been squandered.

    It certainly would have been better if we has done more to solve the problem during the last crisis in the '70s. We did do something about it, because that was when the first energy effiency standards for consumer products came in along with fuel economy standards. Then there were the synthetic fuels and shale oil programs, solar power and others. But this was also the time when Three Mile Island and then Chernobyl killed off the possibility of a new generation of nuclear reactors (politically, not technically). When oil bottomed out near $10 a barrel in the '90s people traded in their 4-cylinder sedans that made 130 hp for 6-cylinder models with 240+ hp, or an equally powerful SUV that got even less mileage. Why do you need a car that goes 0-60 in 7.2 sec. to commute or pick up groceries? Why do you need a fake off-road vehicle to do the same thing?
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Bogey

#242
April 13, 2008, 02:56:37 PM
There will never be another era like the Golden Age of Hollywood.  We didn't know how to blow up buildings then so we had no choice but to tell great stories with great characters.-Ben Mankiewicz

BachQ

#244
April 13, 2008, 03:07:22 PM


Now survivalism isn't just for eccentrics
Idea of 'extreme preparedness' heads to the mainstream
Alex Williams, New York Times

Sunday, April 13, 2008

[EXCERPTS]

***

Survivalism, it seems, is not just for survivalists anymore.  Faced with a confluence of diverse threats - a tanking economy, a housing crisis, looming environmental disasters and a sharp spike in oil prices - people who do not consider themselves extremists are starting to discuss doomsday measures once associated with the social fringes.  They stockpile or grow food in case of a supply breakdown, or buy precious metals in case of economic collapse. Some try to take their houses off the electricity grid, or plan safe houses far away.  The point is not to drop out of society, but to be prepared in case the future turns out like something out of "An Inconvenient Truth," if not "Mad Max."

***

Many of the new, nontraditional preparedness converts are "Peakniks," Rawles said, referring to adherents of the "Peak Oil" theory. This concept holds that the world will soon, or has already, reached a peak in oil production, and that coming supply shortages might threaten society. While the theory is still disputed by many industry analysts and executives, it has inched toward the mainstream in the last two years, as oil prices have nearly doubled, surpassing $100 a barrel.

The topic, which was the subject of a U.S. Department of Energy report in 2005, has attracted attention in publications like the New York Times Magazine and the Wall Street Journal, and was a primary focus of "Megadisasters: Oil Apocalypse," a recent History Channel program.

Another book, "The Long Emergency" (Atlantic Monthly Press, 2005) by James Howard Kunstler, an author and journalist who writes about economic and environmental issues, argues that American suburbs and cities may soon lay desolate as people, starved of oil, are forced back to the land to adopt a hardscrabble, 19th-century-style agrarian life.

Such fears caused Joyce Jimerson of Bellingham, Wash., a coordinator for a recycling-composting program affiliated with Washington State University, to make her yard an edible garden, with fruit trees and vegetables, in case supplies are threatened by oil shortages, climate change or economic collapse. "It's all the same ball of wax, as far as I'm concerned," she said.

Scott Troyer, an energy consultant in Sunnyvale, said he was spurred by discussions of peak oil - "it's not a theory," he said - and other energy concerns to remake his suburban house in anticipation of a petroleum-starved future. Troyer, 57, installed a photovoltaic electricity system, a pellet stove and a cool roof to reflect the sun's rays, among other measures.

Troyer remains cautiously optimistic that Americans can wean themselves from oil through smart engineering and careful planning. But, he said, "The doomsday scenarios will happen if people don't prepare."

Sean

#247
April 13, 2008, 04:02:44 PM
Some good points drogulus. Petrol conservation is going to be important, but it's obviously not an alternative. When you think that our civilization is running on the same fossil fuels that the the Iron Age used you see the magnitude of the problem here. (Was Chernobyl in 1985?)

Sean

#252
April 14, 2008, 04:29:07 PM
Well done Dm. We'll soon see who the real conspiracists are.

BachQ

#253
April 15, 2008, 03:25:29 AM




Oil hits record high, weak dollar supports
April 15

By Randy Fabi

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil advanced to a lifetime peak above $112 a barrel on Tuesday as investors sought to hedge against a battered dollar.  U.S. crude rose 39 cents to $112.15 a barrel at 6:00 a.m. EDT, after touching a record high of $112.48 earlier in the session.  Oil is up 17 percent from the start of the year and is averaging near $100.

Oil hits records on supply disruptions, dollar

By Annika Breidthardt

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil futures surged to record highs on Tuesday, breaking through buy-stops as they extended gains on the back of supply disruptions and a weak dollar.  U.S. light crude for May delivery rose 59 cents to $112.35 a barrel at 12:02 a.m. EDT, after touching a high of $112.48 a barrel and surpassing its previous $112.21 a barrel record.  U.S. futures are up 17 percent from the start of the year.

The dollar stayed under pressure on Tuesday ahead of U.S. data and financial institutions' first-quarter results expected to give clues on the state of the economy and credit markets. A weak dollar tends to raise prices for commodities denominated in that currency by boosting non-U.S. spending power and by attracting investors seeking an inflation hedge.  U.S. gasoline futures hitting fresh highs on Monday also helped. They rose as the United States gears up for the summer driving season, when demand traditionally peaks, but the Energy Information Administration has drivers may use less for the first time since 1991, due to lofty pump prices and a weak economy.  And the U.S. government said U.S. consumers were spending more than ever to fill up at the pump, as the average price for gasoline climbed to a new high of $3.39 a gallon after rising 5.7 cents over the last week.







Oil Rises to Record as Falling Dollar Prompts Commodity Buying

By Christian Schmollinger

April 15 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a record as investors purchased futures contracts to hedge against the falling dollar after the Group of Seven failed to end the currency's slide. The dollar was at $1.5827 per euro as of 11:19 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.5832 late in New York yesterday. It touched $1.5913 on April 10, the highest level since the European currency's debut in 1999. China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, imported 25 percent more crude in March versus a year ago, offsetting projected demand declines in the U.S.

Crude oil for May delivery climbed as much as 72 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $112.48 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest since futures began trading in 1983. It was at $112.40 at 11:14 a.m. in Singapore. Prices have gained 77 percent from a year earlier. *** Oil has risen 37 percent and the dollar has dropped 12 percent against the euro since the Federal Reserve began lowering interest rates on Sept. 18.

BachQ

#255
April 15, 2008, 03:29:33 AM


Oil Prices Set to Increase Further
By Elliott H. Gue

Editor of The Energy Letter and The Energy Strategist
14 April 2008

***
Growing oil production fast enough to meet the worlds rapidly growing demand will be difficult, expensive and subject to a great deal of risk.  For example, the CERA panelist noted that every year producers need to find an additional 3 million to 3.5 million barrels per day of oil production per day just to offset declines from older fields. Global liquids supply is running on a treadmill; drilling and field development must continue just to maintain current production rates.

According to CERA, there are 546 giant oilfields in the world that currently account for just more than half of production. Only 80 of those fields are currently undeveloped or not fully developed. And the inventory of giant fields is declining because few major discoveries have been made in recent years. Therefore, producers will increasingly target smaller fields in which production is more complex and expensive.

And costs overall in the industry are rising. CERA publishes an index of total capital costs in the oil industry. That index was set to 100 in the year 2000. Currently, the CERA capital costs index is closer to 200. Actual costs have, in the very least, doubled.

There are also above-ground risks. In other words, even though oilfield geology may allow for expanded production, there are other factors influencing production. For example, many of the most promising fields are located in countries with significant political instability such as parts of Africa.

Other promising plays are located in nations where production is controlled by state-owned national oil companies (NOC). NOCs have, in recent years, sought to exert more control over their resources. In many cases, this has meant that the big western producers with the best technology simply cant get access to reserves on favorable terms.

Then theres the simple problem of infrastructure. Much existing infrastructure in global oilfields is ageing and needs to be replaced. In addition, key assets such as deepwater rigs are in short supply, resulting in delays to key projects.

All told, global oil production estimates are an exercise in probabilities, not certainties. My view remains that some forecasts of future production are way too optimistic. There are just too many best-case assumptions in the EIA projections. I seriously doubt that the world will see 120 million barrels per day of liquids production in 2030.

Nonetheless, an immediate peak and decline would appear somewhat overly pessimistic. Higher energy prices have allowed producers to target fields once thought uneconomical, such as those in deepwater.

Whats absolutely clear is that future oil production growth isnt a certainty and will be expensive to bring online. This suggests that the era of low energy prices is over: Good whether oil production has already peaked. Or can it continue to grind higher for another 15 to 20 years?

BachQ

#257
April 15, 2008, 04:01:41 AM


Fears emerge over Russia's oil output
By Carola Hoyos and Javier Blas in London

Published: April 14 2008 22:10 | Last updated: April 15 2008 07:40


Russian oil production has peaked and may never return to current levels, one of the country's top energy executives has warned, fuelling concerns that the world's biggest oil producers cannot keep up with rampant Asian demand.

The warning helped on Tuesday to push crude oil prices to a fresh all-time high above $112 a barrel, threatening to stoke inflation in many countries.

Leonid Fedun, the 52-year-old vice-president of Lukoil, Russia's largest independent oil company, told the Financial Times he believed last year's Russian oil production of about 10m barrels a day was the highest he would see "in his lifetime". Russia is the world's second biggest oil producer.

Mr Fedun compared Russia with the North Sea and Mexico, where oil production is declining dramatically, saying that in the oil-rich region of western Siberia, the mainstay of Russian output, "the period of intense oil production [growth] is over".

The Russian government has so far admitted that production growth has stagnated, but has shied away from admitting that post-Soviet output has peaked.

Viktor Khristenko, Russia's energy minister who is pushing for tax cuts that could stimulate investment, said last week: "The output level we have today is a plateau, stagnation."

Russia was until recently considered as the most promising oil region outside the Middle East. Its rapid output growth in the early 2000s helped to meet booming Chinese demand and limited the rise in oil prices.

The trend, however, has turned, with supply dropping below year-ago levels for the first time this decade, according to the International Energy Agency, the energy watchdog.

Oil futures on Monday rose to $111.79 a barrel, just below last week's record of $112.21 a barrel.

Sean

#258
April 15, 2008, 04:43:47 PM
I posted this one before...

Many peak oil thinkers are sceptical that much progress on alternative energies will be made at this late stage in the age of oil. Oil production is 84 million barrels a day, which is likely at its peak- it might just go to 90mbd, then no matter what the demand is, for example it'll be 120/ 150 etc in the coming decade or two, output will slip inexorably to 80, 75, 70, 65 and so on. Once the markets realize this is an inevitability and not a blip, the result could be no gentle slide but a rather catastrophic holding onto funds: trillions and trillions of dollars will disappear from the world, companies and stock markets losing value, possibly over only a period of a few months.

Once supermarket lorries are seen failing to make their deliveries and are abandoned and looted on roadsides, society will collapse- we are that precariously balanced, and of course that's the reality behind 9/11 'attacks' and the subsequent control of Middle East reserves, the last of the world's oil. D'you know what 84 million barrels x365 days looks like? If it was a building it would be 1 x 1 x 4.5 kilometers tall ,with this yearly consumption going up by 10 stories or more each year. How much oil do you think is in the world's rocks?

Here's a couple of things I came across in a Youtube oil video, paraphrased for you- made an impression on me:

Einstein pointed out that the phenomenon of exponential growth is one of the most powerful in nature- where a quantity is subject to an ongoing factor, usually x2. The question then, as Richard Heinman puts it, is whether humanity is smarter than yeast, which expands its numbers without regard for its food source: it doubles and doubles until it reaches half the size of its remaining food, then doubles once more (cf China and India), still thinking everything's great, finds there's nothing left to eat at all and the entire lot of it dies.

I like this example as well, futher illuminating how most people aren't noticing there's a problem. There's this lake you've always used, essential to your life for water, fish, plants, animals etc. Unknown to you or your village, a virulent foreign water lilly takes hold, which doubles its coverage overnight, blocking out all else and killing and poisening the lake: it begins with a single tiny spore on day 1 and will cover the lake completely on day 30.

On which day do you think you might notice there was problem? When an eighth of the lake was covered? A quarter? Arguably most people wouldn't notice until it was half covered. How long would this give you to do something about it before the lake and your livelihood was destroyed? One day- you'd be on day 29. How long would you have if you noticed when it was a quarter covered? Two days, or three days if you were sharp enough to see it an eighth covered.

In this time left you also have to draw other people's attention to the problem, convince them that an eighth coverage was indeed a problem at all, think of a solution, agree on the solution, work out how to bring it about, work out who will do what etc etc etc, all within three days, when 27 passed while everyone still thought things were just fine. It wouldn't happen of course and the village would be overcome- certainly not in a democratic situation with idiots endlessly debating, when a clear sighted decisive leader is needed.

head-case

#259
April 15, 2008, 10:11:46 PM
Quote from: Sean on April 15, 2008, 04:43:47 PM
I posted this one before...

Many peak oil thinkers are sceptical that much progress on alternative energies will be made at this late stage in the age of oil. Oil production is 84 million barrels a day, which is likely at its peak- it might just go to 90mbd, then no matter what the demand is, for example it'll be 120/ 150 etc in the coming decade or two, output will slip inexorably to 80, 75, 70, 65 and so on. Once the markets realize this is an inevitability and not a blip, the result could be no gentle slide but a rather catastrophic holding onto funds: trillions and trillions of dollars will disappear from the world, companies and stock markets losing value, possibly over only a period of a few months.

Once supermarket lorries are seen failing to make their deliveries and are abandoned and looted on roadsides, society will collapse- we are that precariously balanced, and of course that's the reality behind 9/11 'attacks' and the subsequent control of Middle East reserves, the last of the world's oil. D'you know what 84 million barrels x365 days looks like? If it was a building it would be 1 x 1 x 4.5 kilometers tall ,with this yearly consumption going up by 10 stories or more each year. How much oil do you think is in the world's rocks?

Here's a couple of things I came across in a Youtube oil video, paraphrased for you- made an impression on me:

Einstein pointed out that the phenomenon of exponential growth is one of the most powerful in nature- where a quantity is subject to an ongoing factor, usually x2. The question then, as Richard Heinman puts it, is whether humanity is smarter than yeast, which expands its numbers without regard for its food source: it doubles and doubles until it reaches half the size of its remaining food, then doubles once more (cf China and India), still thinking everything's great, finds there's nothing left to eat at all and the entire lot of it dies.

I like this example as well, futher illuminating how most people aren't noticing there's a problem. There's this lake you've always used, essential to your life for water, fish, plants, animals etc. Unknown to you or your village, a virulent foreign water lilly takes hold, which doubles its coverage overnight, blocking out all else and killing and poisening the lake: it begins with a single tiny spore on day 1 and will cover the lake completely on day 30.

On which day do you think you might notice there was problem? When an eighth of the lake was covered? A quarter? Arguably most people wouldn't notice until it was half covered. How long would this give you to do something about it before the lake and your livelihood was destroyed? One day- you'd be on day 29. How long would you have if you noticed when it was a quarter covered? Two days, or three days if you were sharp enough to see it an eighth covered.

In this time left you also have to draw other people's attention to the problem, convince them that an eighth coverage was indeed a problem at all, think of a solution, agree on the solution, work out how to bring it about, work out who will do what etc etc etc, all within three days, when 27 passed while everyone still thought things were just fine. It wouldn't happen of course and the village would be overcome- certainly not in a democratic situation with idiots endlessly debating, when a clear sighted decisive leader is needed.

How many times are you going to quote the same jibberish? 
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