Meltdown

[BachQ]

With limited data and access to the major oil fields of the world there is no way to accurately calculate the timing of a peak. 

Global production will eventually follow an “undulating plateau” for one or more decades before declining slowly. 

We might already be in the midst of the "undulating plateau," ........ and, to that extent, the question becomes: "how long will the plateau last before the irreversible decline sets in; and, how rapid/steep will the decline be once we've peaked?"

Sean's doomsday/nightmare scenario could actually happen if the "spare capacity" situation is as bleak as Simmons & Co.'s assessment (see Simmons, pages 56-61).

[Sean]

http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/index.php/topic,5771.0.html

Still nobody replied to this thread. It reminds me of the showing of the documentary film The Crude awakening I went to a few weeks back- the sense of a wrong hushed up was overwhelming: it was as though the greatest possible sin was being committed by showing a film that challenged the lived status quo. The sheer opprobrium around the cinema was something to behold: the masses' world is the world of the democratic majority, dogged self-deception and pig-headed refusal to face reality.

[BachQ]

From Reuters

FACTBOX: Why oil prices are at a record high
Wed Feb 20, 2008 9:36am EST
(Reuters) - U.S. crude oil hit an all-time high of $100.10 a barrel on Tuesday, 1 cent above the previous record peak reached on January 3.

Robust demand for crude, real and threatened disruptions to supply and a weak U.S. dollar have fuelled the rally from a dip below $50 at the start of 2007.

Adjusted for inflation, oil is only just below the $101.70 peak hit in April 1980, according to the International Energy Agency, a year after the Iranian revolution.

FUNDS

Investment flows from pension and hedge funds into commodities including oil have boomed, as has speculative trading.

At the same time, a global credit crunch has brought some other markets, such as the U.S. asset-backed commercial paper market, to a virtual standstill.

Some of that money has found its way into energy and commodities, analysts say.

DOLLAR WEAKNESS

The fall in the value of the dollar against other major currencies has helped drive buying across commodities as investors view dollar assets as relatively cheap.

It has also reduced the purchasing power of OPEC's revenues and increased the purchasing power of some non-dollar consumers.

OPEC oil ministers have noted that although prices are rising to record nominal levels, inflation and the dollar have softened the impact.

Some analysts say investors have been using oil as a hedge against the weaker dollar.

DEMAND

While previous price spikes have been triggered by supply disruptions, demand is a main driver of the current rally.

Global demand growth has slowed after a surge in 2004 but is still rising, despite an economic slowdown in top consumer the United States. Higher prices have so far had a limited effect on economic growth.

Analysts say the world is coping with high nominal prices because, adjusted for exchange rates and inflation, they are lower than during previous price spikes and some economies have become less energy intensive.

OPEC SUPPLY RESTRAINT

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, source of more than a third of the world's oil, started to reduce oil output in late 2006 to stem a fall in prices.

Fewer OPEC barrels entering the market helped propel the rally and consumer nations led by the International Energy Agency have urged OPEC to pump more oil.

At meetings in December and earlier in February, OPEC left output unchanged. Some in OPEC, such as Iran, want the group to cut supplies at the next OPEC meeting, on March 5.

VENEZUELA

A row between OPEC member Venezuela and Exxon Mobil Corp., the largest fully publicly traded oil company, has prompted price gains this month.

Venezuela has suspended oil exports to Exxon, escalating the country's fight with the U.S. oil firm over compensation for an nationalized oil project. Venezuela has also threatened to cut exports to the United States.

Oil producers in the Middle East have assured the United States that they could compensate for a supply disruption if Venezuela slows exports.

NIGERIA

Supply of crude from Nigeria, Africa's largest oil exporter, has been cut since February 2006 because of militant attacks on the country's oil industry.

Oil companies have detailed about 515,000 bpd of shut Nigerian production due to militant attacks and sabotage.

REFINERY BOTTLENECKS

Limited additions to refining capacity in major consumer nations such as the United States are partly behind rising crude prices.

The International Energy Agency said last year additional global refining capacity over the next five years will lag earlier expectations as rising costs and a shortage of engineers delay construction.

IRAQ

Iraq is struggling to get its oil industry back on its feet after decades of wars, sanctions and underinvestment.

Exports of Kirkuk crude from the country's north are stabilizing as the system recovers from technical problems that had mostly idled the pipeline since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003.

[bwv 1080]

http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/index.php/topic,5771.0.html

Still nobody replied to this thread. It reminds me of the showing of the documentary film The Crude awakening I went to a few weeks back- the sense of a wrong hushed up was overwhelming: it was as though the greatest possible sin was being committed by showing a film that challenged the lived status quo. The sheer opprobrium around the cinema was something to behold: the masses' world is the world of the democratic majority, dogged self-deception and pig-headed refusal to face reality.

Perhaps taking sensationalistic documentaries at face value is not the best basis to make policy decisions? 

[bwv 1080]

We might already be in the midst of the "undulating plateau," ........ and, to that extent, the question becomes: "how long will the plateau last before the irreversible decline sets in; and, how rapid/steep will the decline be once we've peaked?"

Sean's doomsday/nightmare scenario could actually happen if the "spare capacity" situation is as bleak as Simmons & Co.'s assessment (see Simmons, pages 56-61).

Simmons is a Club of Rome guy, which leads me to discount much of his doom-mongering.  Nor do I think his solutions of centralized energy "Marshall Plans" or "Manhatten Projects" are feasible.  We already see in the ethanol fiasco what happens when government gets into dictating alternate energy schemes - a bunch of handouts to corporate and special interest groups that have nothing to do with sustainable energy.  The best motivation for rationing and finding alternative energy sources is the price of oil.  I would even support taxes that kept the price at $100 were it to fall.

[BachQ]

The best motivation for rationing and finding alternative energy sources is the price of oil.  I would even support taxes that kept the price at $100 were it to fall.

Fascinating.   Meanwhile, the worldwide consumption of oil continues to increase ...... and increase ........ and increase .......

[BachQ]

Peak oil meets global warming:

(1) Mass evacuations from cold climates due to astronomical cost of heating homes.
(2) Mass evacuations from warm climates due to drought, famine, and astronomical cost of air conditioning.

[BachQ]

Peak oil meets climate change

Irish Times: Two frightening trends stand out from the annual report published this week by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Warning about a crude oil supply crunch before 2015 involving an abrupt price increase, it says oil markets everywhere will become more sensitive than ever to Middle East disruptions, including political developments in Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. And the IEA calculates that, on unchanged policies, total global emissions of carbon dioxide will rise from 27 billion tonnes in 2005 to 42 billion tonnes in 2030. That level would see world temperatures rise six degrees centrigrade by then - an utterly unsustainable increase that is also avoidable.

These two trends thus bear out the stark warning given by Dr Jeremy Leggett this week in an Academy Times lecture in Dublin boldly entitled Half Gone: Peak Oil meets Climate Change. A former oil industry consultant and Greenpeace campaigner, he said the combination of the two "is going to hit society with a big, seismic shock . . . I hope I am wrong, but I don't believe we can avoid the third great oil crisis. We will be mobilising as though for war". Uncannily, this week's financial and economic headlines bear him out. Markets are exercised by the prospect of the international oil price reaching $100, driven by huge increased demand from China and India. Along with the growing competition from alternative biofuel production, this stokes up food prices and general inflation and contributes to uncertainties about interest rates and the current worldwide share and banking credit turmoil.

It is salutary to recall that the international oil price was $16 a barrel in 1999. That is the essential background for understanding some of the geopolitical changes since then. Foremost among them has been the resurgence of Russia over those years, coinciding exactly with President Vladimir Putin's rise to power. Russia is now the world's second largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia, ahead of the United States, Iran and China. But as the IEA report makes clear, the Middle East region remains central, notwithstanding its political volatility. This is underlined in remarks made by a former Saudi ambassador to the US, who says an attack on Iran would make "the whole Gulf an inferno of exploding fuel tanks and shot-up facilities", which would "shoot up the price of oil astronomically".

Given how the possibility of such a US attack has moved so far on to the international agenda, it is high time these likely consequences were taken far more seriously than has been the case so far. It would bring an oil crunch perilously near. The prospect of global warming on the scale suggested over the next two decades is even more frightening. A six degree increase is three times more than scientists say the earth can withstand without irreversible and runaway environmental degradation.

Energy and climate change are now directly affecting the world's peace and prosperity. We have only a short time to cut oil dependence and slash carbon emissions.

[BachQ]

From Reuters

Solar sector set to shine
Fri Feb 22, 2008 11:24am EST
By Eva Kuehnen

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Solar power will be a bright investment prospect as the appetite for green energy grows, even though the global credit crisis is making banks more wary of providing financing.

In the short term, the sector will also have to contend with a shortage of silicon, a key ingredient for solar cells that turn sunlight into electricity, and possible changes in political support as elections take place.

"This year will be a very volatile year," said Sven Hansen, chief investment officer at clean technology investor Good Energies, which has about 7 billion Swiss francs ($6.38 billion) under management.

"The industry will see fantastic growth, but it will be a bumpy ride in terms of how financial markets value photovoltaic companies."

The number of new large-scale solar energy plants has been growing rapidly particularly in sun-drenched countries like Spain and Italy, but also in Germany and the United States, where regulatory conditions offer incentives and stable returns for investors.

Conditions could change because of a presidential election in the United States and general elections in Spain in March.

"Whether there are support programs in place has a strong impact on markets' development," Hansen said.

Growth is still expected to be strong, driven by increased interest from institutional investors, such as pension funds and insurers, which are seeking alternative stable and long-term opportunities.

Experts also expect the silicon shortage to ease next year as silicon makers hike up capacities and production.

"Leverage ratios are more difficult, but we will ride out the storm. The business is not shut," said Peter van Egmond Rossbach, director of investment at Impax Asset Management.

The firm provides finance for renewable energy projects around the world and has $2 billion under management.

Thirty percent is invested in solar, 40 percent in wind and the rest in other renewable energy projects, it said.

"It just means that (project financing) is getting more expensive and we have to bridge with equity," he added.

RISK AVERSION

Tighter liquidity on global financial markets resulting from a crisis in the U.S. subprime mortgage market last year has made banks more risk-averse.

As a result, conditions have become tougher, pushing up interest payments for loans and other financing costs, which reduces the cashflow and leads to higher purchase prices for investors.

"We notice it in the purchase prices," said Barbara Flesche, head of equity sales at Epuron, a project developer, which is fully-owned by German solar group Conergy (CGYG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research).

Epuron develops, finances, develops and operates large-scale renewable energy projects, bringing together investors, banks and equipment producers.

It has completed deals worth about 800 million euros ($1.18 billion) since 1998, it said.

Banks were less willing to provide high gearing for such major projects, which dampened investor hopes of a higher return on equity, Flesche said.

But she added: "The risk for purchase prices is not something that's hurting us dramatically -- so far."

Flesche said demand from institutional investors for such large-scale renewable portfolios was still strong and was now also reaching into new markets such as Turkey, Greece or Italy.

"It will become more difficult to get bank financing, but not impossible," Epuron's Flesche said.

The European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) expects the global market to be five times bigger than it was in 2007 within the next five years.

It said it expected annual installations to reach a 10.9 gigawatt peak by 2012 globally, up from a peak of about 2.2 gigawatts in 2007, adding that annual growth rates of well above 25 percent could be expected.

The European Energy Council has forecast that by 2010 about 1.6 percent of total energy generation will derive from photovoltaic sources, which compares to a share of 0.01 percent in 2003.

By 2010 the council expects about 19 percent of generation will derive from renewables, 15 percent from nuclear and 66 percent from fossil sources.

[BachQ]

From Reuters

Energy storage nears its day in the sun
Fri Feb 22, 2008 5:01pm EST
By Gerard Wynn

MONACO (Reuters) - Energy storage is an unglamorous pillar of an expected revolution to clean up the world's energy supply but will soon vie for investors attention with more alluring sources of energy like solar panels, manufacturers say.

"It's been in the background until now. It's not sexy. It's the enabler, not a source of energy," said Tim Hennessy, chief executive of Canadian battery makers VRB Power, speaking on the sidelines of a "CleanEquity" technologies conference in Monaco.

VRB will start mass production this year of a longer-lasting rival to the lead acid battery currently used to store energy for example produced by solar panel, Hennessy said.

Low carbon-emitting renewable energy is in vogue, driven by fears over climate change, spiraling oil prices and fears over energy supply and security.

While the supply of the wind and sun far exceeds humanity's needs it doesn't necessarily match the time when people need it: the sun may not be shining nor the wind blowing when we need to cook dinner or have a shower.

Soaring production of solar panel and wind turbines is now spurring a race to develop the winning energy storage technologies which will drive the electric cars and appliances of the future.

The race is heating up as manufacturers with entirely different solutions near the moment of commercial production.

For example, UK-based ITM Power sees the future of energy storage in the explosive gas hydrogen. The company is developing a piece of kit called an electrolyzer which uses solar or wind power to split water into hydrogen and oxygen.

The hydrogen is then stored in a pressurized container until it is needed, whether to drive a car, produce electricity or for cooking.

"With batteries you're taking enormous quantities of basic raw materials," said Chief Executive Jim Heathcote, referring to cadmium in nickel cadmium varieties. His company won an award for research at the Monaco conference, organized by corporate finance advisers Innovator Capital.

"Two things we're confident of is the supply of renewable energy and water," he said.

ITM Power aims to start production later this year of electrolyzers and next year of hydrogen fuel cells which generate electricity.

"The one problem everyone's had is how to store. The ability to take (surplus) renewable energy and make useful fuel out of it is almost priceless," Heathcote said.

RICH

The economic opportunities are highlighted by a third company, U.S.-based EnerDel, which aims to supply batteries for the "Th!nk City" electric vehicle, manufactured by Norway's Think Global.

In the case of electric cars, cheap, lightweight batteries are needed to power motors, and will eliminate carbon emissions if the batteries are charged using renewable power sources.

EnerDel has patented a lithium-ion battery which it says is lighter and cheaper than the nickel metal hydride batteries currently used in hybrid electric cars such as the Toyota Prius.

"I think energy storage is the next frontier," said Charles Gassenheimer, chairman of EnerDel's owners Ener1 Inc.

The "Th!nk" car could be the world's first mass production electric vehicle, starting in earnest in 2009. It will go from 0 to 60 miles an hour in about 8 seconds and have a range of up to 100 miles, said Gassenheimer.

Investors have given their thumbs up to Ener1, which now has a market capitalization of around $700 million, a ten-fold increase over two years ago.

[BachQ]

New York Times
February 23, 2008
THE ENERGY CHALLENGE

Move Over, Oil, There's Money in Texas Wind

By CLIFFORD KRAUSS

SWEETWATER, Tex. — The wind turbines that recently went up on Louis Brooks's ranch are twice as high as the Statue of Liberty, with blades that span as wide as the wingspan of a jumbo jet. More important from his point of view, he is paid $500 a month to permit 78 of them on his land, with 76 more on the way.

"That's just money you're hearing," he said as they hummed in a brisk breeze recently.

Texas, once the oil capital of North America, is rapidly turning into the capital of wind power. After breakneck growth the last three years, Texas has reached the point that more than 3 percent of its electricity, enough to supply power to one million homes, comes from wind turbines.

Texans are even turning tapped-out oil fields into wind farms, and no less an oilman than Boone Pickens is getting into alternative energy.

"I have the same feelings about wind," Mr. Pickens said in an interview, "as I had about the best oil field I ever found." He is planning to build the biggest wind farm in the world, a $10 billion behemoth that could power a small city by itself.

Wind turbines were once a marginal form of electrical generation. But amid rising concern about greenhouse gases from coal-burning power plants, wind power is booming. Installed wind capacity in the United States grew 45 percent last year, albeit from a small base, and a comparable increase is expected this year.

At growth rates like that, experts said, wind power could eventually make an important contribution to the nation's electrical supply. It already supplies about 1 percent of American electricity, powering the equivalent of 4.5 million homes. Environmental advocates contend it could eventually hit 20 percent, as has already happened in Denmark. Energy consultants say that 5 to 7 percent is a more realistic goal in this country.

The United States recently overtook Spain as the world's second-largest wind power market, after Germany, with $9 billion invested last year. A recent study by Emerging Energy Research, a consulting firm in Cambridge, Mass., projected $65 billion in investment from 2007 to 2015.

Despite the attraction of wind as a nearly pollution-free power source, it does have limitations. Though the gap is closing, electricity from wind remains costlier than that generated from fossil fuels. Moreover, wind power is intermittent and unpredictable, and the hottest days, when electricity is needed most, are usually not windy.

The turbines are getting bigger and their blades can kill birds and bats. Aesthetic and wildlife issues have led to opposition emerging around the country, particularly in coastal areas like Cape Cod. Some opposition in Texas has cropped up as well, including lawsuits to halt wind farms that were thought to be eyesores or harmful to wetlands.

But the opposition has been limited, and has done little to slow the rapid growth of wind power in Texas. Some Texans see the sleek new turbines as a welcome change in the landscape.

"Texas has been looking at oil and gas rigs for 100 years, and frankly, wind turbines look a little nicer," said Jerry Patterson, the Texas land commissioner, whose responsibilities include leasing state lands for wind energy development. "We're No. 1 in wind in the United States, and that will never change."
Texas surpassed California as the top wind farm state in 2006. In January alone, new wind farms representing $700 million of investment went into operation in Texas, supplying power sufficient for 100,000 homes.

Supporters say Texas is ideal for wind-power development, not just because it is windy. It also has sparsely populated land for wind farms, fast-growing cities and a friendly regulatory environment for developers.

"Texas could be a model for the entire nation," said Patrick Woodson, a senior development executive with E.On, a German utility operating here.

The quaint windmills of old have been replaced by turbines that stand as high as 20-story buildings, with blades longer than a football field and each capable of generating electricity for small communities. powerful turbines are able to capture power even when the wind is relatively weak, and they help to lower the cost per kilowatt hour.

Much of the boom in the United States is being driven by foreign power companies with experience developing wind projects, including Iberdrola of Spain, Energias de Portugal and Windkraft Nord of Germany. Foreign companies own two-thirds of the wind projects under construction in Texas.
A short-term threat to the growth of wind power is the looming expiration of federal clean-energy tax credits, which Congress has allowed to lapse several times over the years. Advocates have called for extending those credits and eventually enacting a national renewable-power standard that would oblige states to expand their use of clean power sources.

A longer-term problem is potential bottlenecks in getting wind power from the places best equipped to produce it to the populous areas that need electricity. The part of the United States with the highest wind potential is a corridor stretching north from Texas through the middle of the country, including sparsely populated states like Montana and the Dakotas. Power is needed most in the dense cities of the coasts, but building new transmission lines over such long distances is certain to be expensive and controversial.

"We need a national vision for transmission like we have with the national highway system," said Robert Gramlich, policy director for the American Wind Energy Association. "We have to get over the hump of having a patchwork of electric utility fiefdoms."

Texas is better equipped to deal with the transmission problems that snarl wind energy in other states because a single agency operates the electrical grid and manages the deregulated utility market in most of the state.

Last July, the Texas Public Utility Commission approved transmission lines across the state capable of delivering as much as 25,000 megawatts of wind energy by 2012, presuming the boom continues. That would be five times the wind power generated in the state today, and it would drive future national growth.

Shell and the TXU Corporation are planning to build a 3,000-megawatt wind farm north of here in the Texas Panhandle, leapfrogging two FPL Energy Texas wind farms to become the biggest in the world.
Not to be outdone, Mr. Pickens is planning his own 150,000-acre Panhandle wind farm of 4,000 megawatts that would be even larger and cost him $10 billion.

"I like wind because it's renewable and it's clean and you know you are not going to be dealing with a production decline curve," Mr. Pickens said. "Decline curves finally wore me out in the oil business."
At the end of 2007, Texas ranked No. 1 in the nation with installed wind power of 4,356 megawatts (and 1,238 under construction), far outdistancing California's 2,439 megawatts (and 165 under construction). Minnesota and Iowa came in third and fourth with almost 1,300 megawatts each (and 46 and 116 under construction, respectively).

Iowa, Minnesota, Colorado and Oregon, states with smaller populations than Texas, all get 5 to 8 percent of their power from wind farms, according to estimates by the American Wind Energy Association.
It has dawned on many Texans in recent years that wind power, whatever its other pros and cons, represents a potent new strategy for rural economic development.

Since the wind boom began a few years ago, the total value of property here in Nolan County has doubled, and the county judge, Tim Fambrough, estimated it would increase an additional 25 percent this year. County property taxes are going down, home values are going up and the county has extra funds to remodel the courthouse and improve road maintenance.

"Wind reminds us of the old oil and gas booms," Mr. Fambrough said.
Teenagers who used to flee small towns like Sweetwater after high school are sticking around to take technical courses in local junior colleges and then work on wind farms. Marginal ranches and cotton farms are worth more with wind turbines on them.

"I mean, even the worst days for wind don't compare to the busts in the oil business," said Bobby Clark, a General Electric wind technician who gave up hauling chemicals in the oil fields southwest of here to live and work in Sweetwater. "I saw my daddy go from rags to riches and back in the oil business, and I sleep better."

Wind companies are remodeling abandoned buildings, and new stores, hotels and restaurants have opened around this old railroad town.

Dandy's Western Wear, the local cowboy attire shop, cannot keep enough python skin and cowhide boots in stock because of all the Danes and Germans who have come to town to invest and work in the wind fields, then take home Texas souvenirs.

"Wind has invigorated our business like you wouldn't believe," said Marty Foust, Dandy's owner, who recently put in new carpeting and air-conditioning. "When you watch the news you can get depressed about the economy, but we don't get depressed. We're now in our own bubble."

[BachQ]

New York Times

February 27, 2008
Gas Prices Soar, Posing a Threat to Family Budget
By JAD MOUAWAD

Gasoline prices, which for months lagged behind the big run-up in the price of oil, are suddenly rising quickly, with some experts saying they could approach $4 a gallon by spring. Diesel is hitting new records daily, and oil settled at a record high of $100.88 a barrel on Tuesday.

The increases could not come at a worse time for the economy. With growth slowing, energy increases that were once easily absorbed by consumers are now more likely to act as a drag on household budgets, leaving people with less money to spend elsewhere. These costs could worsen the nation's economic woes, piling a fresh energy shock on top of the turmoil in credit and housing.  "The effect of high oil prices today could be the difference between having a recession and not having a recession," said Kenneth S. Rogoff, a Harvard economist.

The depth of the nation's economic problems became clearer Tuesday with the release of figures showing that prices at the producer level rose 1 percent in January from December, driven in large measure by energy costs. Compared with a year ago, prices were up 7.4 percent, the worst producer price inflation in the United States since 1981.  Other new figures showed that home prices around the country are falling at an accelerating pace, suggesting no end is in sight for the housing slump. On Tuesday, diesel prices rose to a record $3.60 a gallon, compared with $2.62 a gallon last year. 

For a decade, rising oil prices failed to dent global economic growth. In the United States, consumers absorbed the higher costs because of easy credit and rising prosperity, while in developing countries, government subsidies helped ease the pain.  The rise in energy prices was a result of growing demand around the world.  The price of oil has quadrupled in six years, and the close Tuesday was not far below the inflation-adjusted high set in April 1980, after the Iranian revolution. That record, $39.50 a barrel, equals $103.76 in today's money. As oil prices spiked last fall, low wintertime gasoline demand helped keep prices in check. But now, experts say, the price of oil is finally showing up at the pump.

But global oil demand, the relentless driver behind higher prices, is still expected to increase by 1.4 million barrels a day this year, analysts estimate. That growth, from China and the Middle East, may help keep prices up, whatever happens to the American economy. While demand keeps growing, producers are struggling to catch up. They are not replacing the oil they are pumping out of the ground fast enough because of restrictions on access to fields, as well as rising costs. Meanwhile, demand in China, India and the Middle East is expected to push oil consumption up by more than one million barrels a day, each year, for the next decade.


"An oil crisis is coming in the next 10 years," John B. Hess, the chairman of the Hess Corporation, said at a recent conference held by Cambridge Energy Research Associates. "It's not a matter of demand. It's not a matter of supplies. It's both."

[Sean]

Dm, some theorists insist the we are in the post peak environment already and the only question is how smooth or sharp the gradient on the other side to begin with is going to be. Nobody quite knows, but developed societies around the world could be on the verge of collapse, only hastened by most people not ready to take steadily reducing living standards lightly after centuries of improvement. People think such statements are preposterous, or a joke. But one reason nobody talks about them much is that there's no real answer to the problem. Afghanistan and Iraq are the first of the oil wars.

[BachQ]

Dm, some theorists insist the we are in the post peak environment already [such that] the only question [remaining] is how smooth or sharp the gradient on the other side to begin with is going to be.

There is evidence that we may have peaked in 2005, and that we'll be in the midst of an "undulating plateau" for a few years (perhaps as long as five or ten more years of undulation) ....... But you are 100.00% correct that, once we've moved beyond the plateau, the only question remaining "is how smooth or sharp the gradient" of decline will be. 

Nobody quite knows, but developed societies around the world could be on the verge of collapse, only hastened by most people not ready to take steadily reducing living standards lightly after centuries of improvement. People think such statements are preposterous, or a joke. But one reason nobody talks about them much is that there's no real answer to the problem. Afghanistan and Iraq are the first of the oil wars.

If the slope of the post-plateau decline in oil production is steep, then the effect on society will be utterly catastrophic.  The concepts of "inflation" and "depression" will be redefined, and global hostilities will become a daily phenomenon, and a matter of survival.

The US has already positioned itself to dominate the Middle East in the event of oil wars ........ but will other nations cave in to the US domination?  Not if it becomes a matter of their very survival.

But one reason nobody talks about them much is that there's no real answer to the problem.

If the slope of the decline is shallow, then global society will have time (conceivably) to find alternative means of fuel, and to gradually adapt to the extremely stark reality of excessive oil consumption (increasing by 1.4 million barrels a day in 2008) coupled with persistant and inevitable decreasing oil production.



Meanwhile: "The price of oil reached $102 per barrel today - a second record in as many days "

[Sean]

For what it's worth Dm, the peak oil phenomenon all makes a lot of sense to me: the changes in the world and its values ride on top of an underlying imbalance that is given exact expression by peak oil. You only have to look at the state of greed and waste in the West to see what's going to happen. Once the supermarket can't get its deliveries and shuts, we'll starve.

[BachQ]

For what it's worth Dm, the peak oil phenomenon all makes a lot of sense to me: the changes in the world and its values ride on top of an underlying imbalance that is given exact expression by peak oil. You only have to look at the state of greed and waste in the West to see what's going to happen. Once the supermarket can't get its deliveries and shuts, we'll starve.

Greed, selfishness, and shortsightedness derive from and are manifestations of human nature.  Soon, China, India, and the Middle East will be as guilty of selfish greed and waste as we Westerners.  A quick look at where China and India are headed today reveals that they are more than happy to jump on the wasteful, shortsighted, selfish consumerism bandwagon.

Yes, human nature in general, and capitalism specifically, have rendered inevitable the peak oil phenomenon, and it is precisely because of human nature that no one will be able to stop the catastrophic consequences of this juggernaut.

[BachQ]

"The high cost of gas is helping fuel a surge in food prices. Higher transportation expenses, along with growing demand for agricultural exports from the United States and increasing need for corn-based ethanol for gas supplies, has sent commodity costs soaring.  Last week, the federal government reported that the Consumer Price Index rose a greater-than-expected 0.4% in January and 4.3% over the past 12 months, mainly because of higher food and energy costs. Food and beverages jumped 4.8% for the year and transportation soared 9.4%.  A bushel of yellow corn, for instance, cost an average of $5.12 in January, up 41% from a year earlier, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture statistics. Not only does this contribute to the higher prices of food made from corn, but it increases farmers' cost of feeding cattle and pigs."

[Sean]

Thanks for that link, and the other info.

The way I see it, as you probably know, is that not all people have the greedy human nature we speak of here- but most do, and thus it's the rise of democracy that has legitimized it: majority rules, and it's said that this is right and moral. Yet good leaders not dependent on pleasing the masses could have made better decisions.

If you haven't already do check out the material on Youtube and Stage6- esp Richard Heinmann, Crude awakening and other excellent oil crisis videos.

[BachQ]

Thanks for that link, and the other info.

The way I see it, as you probably know, is that not all people have the greedy human nature we speak of here- but most do, and thus it's the rise of democracy that has legitimized it: majority rules, and it's said that this is right and moral. Yet good leaders not dependent on pleasing the masses could have made better decisions.

If you haven't already do check out the material on Youtube and Stage6- esp Richard Heinmann, Crude awakening and other excellent oil crisis videos.

Thanks, Sean.  I think you mean Richard Heinberg (and his lecture "Peak Everything").  Truly fascinating stuff. 

According to Heinberg, crude oil extraction peaked in May, 2005, and the peak from all fossil fuels will occur in about 2010 (less than 2 years from now); with a gradual decline until 2030.  After 2030, there will be a "quickly increasing rate of decline."  Heinberg's central conclusions are that (1) fossil fuels are the root problem of just about everything plaguing the planet; and (2) scarcity is a more pressing issue than climate change.

The upshot is that by 2030, society will become reconfigured away from globalized mechanization toward "demechanized economic re-localization" ....... IOW, a COMPLETELY different lifestyle in which we're all going to become organic gardeners, bicyclists, and wood choppers .......

Can you supply a link for Crude Awakening?

[Florestan]

The upshot is that by 2030, society will become reconfigured away from globalized mechanization toward "demechanized economic re-localization" ....... IOW, a COMPLETELY different lifestyle in which we're all going to become organic gardeners, bicyclists, and wood choppers .......

What? No CD or DVD players, that is, no music?