Meltdown

[ezodisy]

found it, here we go

Robert McHugh thinks the crash will drive the S&P to 500 or lower (in McHugh's worst-case scenario, the S&P could end up at 50).

and if you want to read about "Grand Super Cycles" and their waves, get a load of this from McHugh (1718! hahaha)

McHUGH: From a time perspective, Grand Super Cycle wave 4, to correct something that started in 1718, you would think this thing would last for 20, 30 or 40 years. So, time wise from proportionality, that's what you would estimate. However, the price damage that is happening is so rapid and so powerful and so fast that, a Grand Super Cycle wave four could correct three centuries of bull markets in a very short relative period of time, something on the order of two to six years, let's say. Our hope is that it is over in two years, but that will happen only if the degree of labels that I have marked in our analysis is correct, the highest levels. In other words, I have the decline from last October to this November's low as a Super Cycle degree decline because it was a 50% drop. If I am wrong and that is only a Cycle degree drop instead of a Super Cycle degree drop, that means that Cycle wave (A) down, the first leg of this Bear Market, isn't even over yet. Any correction of the Grand Super Cycle is going to be three waves, most likely. (A) down, (B) up, (C ) down, of the Super Cycle highest degree. If I am wrong, and these labels are too high, then this thing is going to last for six years and we could be seeing stock markets plummet further, the DJIA could go down to 1,000 or 500 and the S&P500 down to a similar level, to 50.

[ezodisy]

"egad...drawler"? huh? Bring back the Fibonacci pic

[BachQ]

Hey Dm, I've finally found someone who is more pessimistic than we are! lol

http://www.abbaswatchman.com/PAGE%208%20GRAPH%20OF%20THINGS%20TO%20COME.htm

The 50 year chart is a good one created back in the '90s. Apparently no more bull runs in our lifetime 

"You had better  start buying food and storing it fast"

lol!

Egad!... The Chart of Doom!

That website is too optimistic for this thread!   



"The Mother of All Depressions"

[BachQ]

Bob Carver's blog

TARP's First $350 Billion Has Gone Up in Smoke

While the Congress asks the Treasury Secretary and the Federal Reserve chief what the $350 Billion in bailout funds have been used for, they are mum on the subject. There's a good reason they're silent---the money has disappeared down a black hole of falling mortgage paper.

Meredith Whitney, the single analyst most responsible for exposing the Wall Street banks' Subprime Mortgage Ponzi Scheme that's at the heart of the current Greater Depression, revealed after the market closed Wednesday afternoon that the money the taxpayers had given Wall Street as part of the TARP bailout is now gone.

This revelation, which came after the market closed, came on top of devastating news indicating that the economy remains in freefall into the deepest depression in the country's history. This sent the market plunging from the opening bell. In the last days of the Bush Administration it's clear that they have made no progress whatsoever in dodging this historic catastophe which threatens to completely destroy our financial system. After decades of an expanding debt bubble, there is nothing that can be done to stop its inevitable deflation.

One bank is particular egregious. Citibank has lost as much taxpayer money as was lost in the Madoff Ponzi Scheme in just the last six months. These "blackhole banks" are doing exactly what we said they would do: implode and take our money with them. And, eventually, they are going to drag the country into insolvency and leave the US Dollar totally worthless.

Can we please remove Paulson before the release of the remaining TARP funds?  That man is a walking nightmare.

[BachQ]

Wholesale prices and consumer prices have fallen for 5 consecutive months, signalling DEFLATION.  This is the greatest annual fall in consumer prices in 54 years (since 1954).

[BachQ]

"Global oil demand is reducing at an alarming rate," said Rob Laughlin, senior oil analyst at MF Global in London. "This latest report from the IEA is another warning shot across the bows to OPEC that supply is still outpacing demand and the situation is getting worse seemingly day by day."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7832989.stm

[BachQ]

Good paper at:

http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/rogoff/files/Aftermath.pdf

Third, the real value of government debt tends to explode, rising an average of 86 percent in the major post–World War II episodes.

For the entire FY 2008, the annual US budget deficit was $454.8 billion; In first quarter 2009, the quarterly deficit rocketed to $485.2 billion for just the first three months FY 2009.    Bloomberg

[ezodisy]

Right side looks to me like an inverted middle-finger-salute straight at the US consumer

[BachQ]

Well ya, they promise to issue vouchers....that'll be FUN.

LA Times: California is F#cked

The state will suspend tax refunds, welfare checks, student grants and other payments owed to Californians starting Feb. 1, Controller John Chiang announced Friday.  Chiang said he had no choice but to stop making some $3.7 billion in payments in the absence of action by the governor and lawmakers to close the state's nearly $42-billion budget deficit. More than half of those payments are tax refunds. The controller said the suspended payments could be rolled into IOUs if California still lacks sufficient cash to pay its bills come March or April. "It pains me to pull this trigger," Chiang said at a news conference in his office. "But it is an action that is critically necessary."

[Sarastro]

The state will suspend tax refunds, welfare checks, student grants and other payments owed to Californians starting Feb. 1, Controller John Chiang announced Friday.

Just have read it in the morning newspapers (same LA Times). However, I don't go back to Russia -- the idea of nationalization thrown by the government is more intimidating, as it is an obvious premise for further actions...who knows what...as my good American friend says when he's drunk: "f*ck Russia, f*ck the US" We go to Panama.

[Sarastro]

"Global oil demand is reducing at an alarming rate,"

That's actually very good. Love it. First, the amount of emissions released into the atmosphere will reduce thus we get a probability that by the year 2030 the Earth won't undergo irreversible processes , and second, Russian government will take a more thorough look at its policies, as well as other oil-exporting countries in the Persian Gulf. Hopefully, they won't start out a war for resources they could buy selling their oil...in some of the links you gave in this topic there was also a warning that China might soon run low on food. This world is doomed.

[BachQ]

Right side looks to me like an inverted middle-finger-salute straight at the US consumer

Or perhaps this:



Or this:

[BachQ]

"The ECB is ... providing a stealth bail-out for Europe's governments – though secrecy veils all. An EU debt union is being created, in breach of EU law. Liabilities are being shifted quietly on to German taxpayers. What happens when Germany's hard-working citizens find out?"



Telegraph (17 Jan 2009)

[ezodisy]

"The ECB is ... providing a stealth bail-out for Europe's governments – though secrecy veils all. An EU debt union is being created, in breach of EU law. Liabilities are being shifted quietly on to German taxpayers. What happens when Germany's hard-working citizens find out?"



Telegraph (17 Jan 2009)

ah it's The Torygraph. Look I am all for complete collapse and combustion but that piece was rubbish and there's no getting around it. Only part worth reading was what you highlighted and he didn't exactly go into detail about it. Attempting to scandalise a couple of almost unrelated and otherwise peaceful protests, come on that was cheap. Often with these things the comments which follow make for much greater interest.

sponsor an executive

http://uk.youtube.com/v/qDC0qcf0kzE

[ezodisy]

Alphaville published a chart created by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis which shows about where we are compared to past recessions.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/16/51272/you-call-this-a-recession/



"Conclusion: This is mild."

According to one writer who analysed the method they used to create the graph, it is not accurate--"intellectually dishonest"--and he came up with his own to prove that even the mildest recession results in a fall in employment

http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2009/01/honest-resarch.html

[ezodisy]

Peter Schiff tearing things up on the Sat 17 Jan double posting: http://financialtruth0.blogspot.com/

[BachQ]

Peter Schiff tearing things up on the Sat 17 Jan double posting: http://financialtruth0.blogspot.com/

Yep, the US is doing everything BACKWARDS, and is on its way to becoming an economic wasteland.  In digging itself deeper into a fiscal blackhole, it is racking up a minimum of a $2 Trillion deficit for 2009.

[BachQ]

Economist David McWilliams: "If Ireland continues hurtling down this road which is close to default, the whole of Europe will be badly affected. The credibility of the euro will be badly affected. Then Spain might default, Italy and Greece ..."

[BachQ]

[ezodisy]

Yep, the US is doing everything BACKWARDS

but as ever the US has its faithful ally for company

Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Gordon Brown's government tightened its grip on Britain's financial system, guaranteeing toxic assets and giving the Bank of England unprecedented power to buy securities.

The plan will increase the cost of bailing out the nation's banks by at least 100 billion pounds ($147 billion), the Treasury said in a statement today. The government raised its stake in Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc to 70 percent and said it would use Northern Rock Plc to spur mortgage lending.

this just shows that all those people who say "great minds think alike" don't know wtf they're talking about