Russian attacks over Georgia

[scarpia]

Well, the idiocy of Georgia's action is now apparent.  What they describe as assertion of control of South Ossetia was, in practical terms, a military assault on Russian forces which have been stationed in the region for many years.  Did they really think the Russians would simply retreat?  On the other hand, Russia seems to relish the opportunity to "punish" Georgia (to use Medvedev's term) which has led to a lot of civilian deaths and suffering.  Overall, the result seems to be a slap-down on Bush's strategy of emboldening former Soviet republics to challenge Russia.  Hopefully Russia will honor their pledge to withdraw forces before much more life is lost.

[Sarastro]

In short, here is how it was:

[PerfectWagnerite]

Well, the idiocy of Georgia's action is now apparent.  What they describe as assertion of control of South Ossetia was, in practical terms, a military assault on Russian forces which have been stationed in the region for many years.  Did they really think the Russians would simply retreat?  On the other hand, Russia seems to relish the opportunity to "punish" Georgia (to use Medvedev's term) which has led to a lot of civilian deaths and suffering.  Overall, the result seems to be a slap-down on Bush's strategy of emboldening former Soviet republics to challenge Russia.  Hopefully Russia will honor their pledge to withdraw forces before much more life is lost.

Yup, a major miscalculation by Georgia. They think the US would send in the military to help them fight the Russians. What the heck are they smoking? There isn't an iota of a probability that the US is going to go in there and take up arm against the Russians. Now they are screwed.

[Philoctetes]

In short, here is how it was:

Very apt and amusing.

[Sarastro]

Very apt and amusing.

And now British The Independent:

[scarpia]

Now I see the US is sending Condi Rice to smooth things over.  She should be able to convert this to another Cuban Missile Crisis.

[ezodisy]

Anyway, as George Kennan presciently said years ago:

"Expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-cold war era. Such a decision may be expected to inflame the nationalistic, anti-Western and militaristic tendencies in Russian opinion; to have an adverse effect on the development of Russian democracy; to restore the atmosphere of the cold war to East-West relations, and to impel Russian foreign policy in directions decidedly not to our liking."

Nice one Bruno. One look at Kennan's biography and I see I'll have some interesting reading to do later tonight. Thanks for that. How's life in the most expensive city in the world?

Thankfully today we received some news that will help deter war in the future 

US andd Poland sign defence deal

Henry Fuseli to the rescue:

[ezodisy]

There is an outstanding article here about the recent political and geographical background of this area, very much worth reading by anyone interested in this conflict

http://www.opendemocracy.net/article/the-georgia-russia-conflict-lost-territory-found-nation

[J.Z. Herrenberg]

Thanks for the link, ezodisy.

[M forever]

Thankfully today we received some news that will help deter war in the future 

US andd Poland sign defence deal

Oh, great! The last time Western powers guaranteed Poland's freedom, that worked out really great...uh...especially for Poland...uh...

From the article:

A White House spokeswoman said US President George W Bush "was very pleased with this development".
"In no way is the president's plan for missile defense aimed at Russia. In fact, it's just not even logically possible for it to be aimed at Russia given how Russia could overwhelm it," she told AFP.

I think that goes without saying. That has absolutely nothing to do with Russia. These measures are put in place as defence against the threat posed by Sweden, obviously.

[scarpia]

I think that goes without saying. That has absolutely nothing to do with Russia. These measures are put in place as defence against the threat posed by Sweden, obviously.

Iran, actually.

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

Nice one Bruno. One look at Kennan's biography and I see I'll have some interesting reading to do later tonight. Thanks for that. How's life in the most expensive city in the world?

Hey Sid! (that's you, right?) - Moscow is not really that expensive. Those surveys are done for Western expat execs who want the same living standard they had at home. Just another case of Western media misleading people  But inflation is beginning to bite...

[Florestan]

Hopefully Russia will honor their pledge to withdraw forces before much more life is lost.

Honor and politics are mutually exclusive. Especially in the case of Russian politics.

[ezodisy]

The last time Western powers guaranteed Poland's freedom, that worked out really great...uh...especially for Poland...uh...

lol!

Hey Sid! (that's you, right?) - Moscow is not really that expensive. Those surveys are done for Western expat execs who want the same living standard they had at home. Just another case of Western media misleading people  But inflation is beginning to bite...

yeah mate, very nice to see you posting here again. I hope you're still well over there. Has it become home for good now?

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

yeah mate, very nice to see you posting here again. I hope you're still well over there. Has it become home for good now?

Good to see you, too....have you been over here yet?

I wouldn't say "home for good," because I'm a nomad by nature and will probably move on eventually. However, the job is good, life is interesting (incl. the musical life of course), I'm writing articles in my spare time, and I can get food I can't get elsewhere (any Uighur restaurants where you are?). The Georgian food is great too, another reason to be pissed off by this war. I just hope Soso and Zaza at my favorite Georgian eatery don't get hassled.

[Sarastro]

I am confused now. What are Rice and Bush talking about? Georgia or Iraq?

[ezodisy]

Good to see you, too....have you been over here yet?

I wouldn't say "home for good," because I'm a nomad by nature and will probably move on eventually. However, the job is good, life is interesting (incl. the musical life of course), I'm writing articles in my spare time, and I can get food I can't get elsewhere (any Uighur restaurants where you are?). The Georgian food is great too, another reason to be pissed off by this war. I just hope Soso and Zaza at my favorite Georgian eatery don't get hassled.

I'm happy you're enjoying it still, you make it sound really nice (had to look up Uighur  ). I know you have an advantage with your job but what's the expat situation like over there? Is it common enough to run into foreigners (from wherever)? You know what the situation is like in London, you can hardly turn a corner without hearing a different language. I guess though it's not quite like that there yet.

I'll be over there soon enough, that is for certain. In fact there can only be two things that'll stop me, one being a complete breakdown of UK-Russian relations, which unfortunately is not impossible  . I'm aiming for St. Petersburg 2010, which is the only city, aside from a few places in northern Italy and southern/central France, that I still wish to visit. 1.5 - 2 years will give me enough time here to have bought a house once this credit crunch turns in a year's time or so. As soon as that is done, and I can put my dearly beloved relative in it, I'm off and will see you there

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

I'm happy you're enjoying it still, you make it sound really nice (had to look up Uighur  ). I know you have an advantage with your job but what's the expat situation like over there? Is it common enough to run into foreigners (from wherever)? You know what the situation is like in London, you can hardly turn a corner without hearing a different language. I guess though it's not quite like that there yet.

It's not like London, but there are plenty of foreigners here. Not as many as there used to be, though - visa regulations are tighter, and they now prefer to hire skilled local workforce rather than expats.

I'll be over there soon enough, that is for certain. In fact there can only be two things that'll stop me, one being a complete breakdown of UK-Russian relations, which unfortunately is not impossible  . I'm aiming for St. Petersburg 2010, which is the only city, aside from a few places in northern Italy and southern/central France, that I still wish to visit. 1.5 - 2 years will give me enough time here to have bought a house once this credit crunch turns in a year's time or so. As soon as that is done, and I can put my dearly beloved relative in it, I'm off and will see you there

Ya know, it's not that complicated - all you have to do is get a visa, a ticket and go 

[mozartsneighbor]

Granted that the situation with the breakaway of South Ossetia and the other province is complicated, and Georgia is not simply an "innocent victim".
But if you think Russia is at all concerned with liberating their Russo-Ossetian brothers, then you are missing the point. Russia only began to make noises in this direction in the context of being alarmed and pissed off at the integration of the old Eastern Soviet states into NATO and the placement on US strategic defense weapons in such states.
Russia is newly resurgent with lots of money from gas and oil, and it is determined to impose at least some of its hold over some of its client states. Or at least show to the West it is strong again, and will not be contained and surrounded.

To think the West should not take in these states, like Georgia, into its camp, including NATO, because that will work up the Russians and lead them on a more aggressive foreign policy, is foolish. Russia is run, both politically and economically, by ex-KGB thugs. If you think that is an exaggeration -- read The Economist's issue of about 1 year ago with the cover on the people who rule Russia, it will scare the hell out of you. If you think Bush and the neo-cons are nasty, prepare to go into another whole different league.
So, whatever the West does, Russia, ruled by ex-torturers and totalitarian scum, is bent on a path of resurgence, bullying, and force.
One final proof of this is the statement made yesterday by one of the top Russian generals, that if Poland and other Eastern states allow US defensive system within their borders that "Russia may react militarily to them" and that Poland may become exposed to nuclear attack by Russia.
Russia -- threatening EU member countries with nuclear attack if they decide what weapons to have on their sovereign territory -- if the message in this of Russia's current nature and future path is not evident, I don't know what is!

The main thing the West can do about this, besides bundling those countries into our camp and being firm, is to cut at the source of Russia's resurgence and of the EU's dependence on Russia -- oil and gas. We need to develop a more renewable-energy-based society, then we won't need Russian gas.
The technology is here already, and it is getting better. The thing is the traditional energy lobby, which is the richest industry and the most powerful lobby, is bent on holding renewables back, because it is their death toll. The campaign of misinformation in the media is unbelievable, the completely uninformed stuff said about renewable energies, always like it is a minor thing, too expensive, maybe in 100 years is a steaming pile of BS. The politicians and media have been totally bought by the traditional energy lobby.
Wind energy in many areas is now at same price or cheaper than traditional energy -- a few countries are being smart about it: Denmark now draws 30% of its energy from wind. In the UK for example the government agencies in league with the traditional energy lobby have done everything to hamper any installation of wind energy -- despite the fact that the UK, especially in the North, has the best wind areas for energy use in the whole of Europe -- the UK could easily meet most of its electricity needs through wind energy. But the result is less than 2% of energy in UK is renewable.
Solar energy, thanks to government programs in a few enlightened countries like Germany and Japan and Spain is getting more developed and falling in price by 5-8% per year. It is estimated by 2015 it will be as cheap as traditional energy.
These technologies become cheaper as there are more people that use them, allowing money to flow in for more research and improvement, and leading to mass production, which cuts the costs sharply. That is why some initial government support was vital at first, like with a lot of technologies. But now the ball is rolling already with cost-reduction and development that very little support is still needed -- renewables are on a path of drastic reduction in prices over the next 10 years and of becoming cheaper than traditional energy.
Those countries still hesitating by the wayside and being directed by the energy lobby for their energy policy are going to pay dearly, as oil and gas will continue to become more expensive.
Nuclear energy, which is being promoted as the alternative, is actually much more expensive than alternatives, because it always receives massive subsidies, which are never included in analyses presented to the public.
Whoops, wrote a bit much -- some of this should also be in the "oil" post section, I guess.

[Lethevich]

In the UK for example the government agencies in league with the traditional energy lobby have done everything to hamper any installation of wind energy -- despite the fact that the UK, especially in the North, has the best wind areas for energy use in the whole of Europe -- the UK could easily meet most of its electricity needs through wind energy. But the result is less than 2% of energy in UK is renewable.

This is true. The government's non-action on wind power is nothing to do with it getting no coverage - this statistic has been constantly mentioned in the media, so I can only conclude that the government is simply criminally negligent.