Betting / Sports Betting

[ezodisy]

Anyone here gamble now and then (or daily)? Not usually my thing, blind luck without fundamentals, but I received a horse racing tip for this Saturday's King George VI and Queen Elizabeth stakes at Ascot from a very well-informed and extremely rich investor who regularly wagers £1m per month on horses. I've read through what I could find on the horse, the other horses, the track and conditions and have decided to go for it. Initially put money down to win at 8/1, then thought better of it and followed it up with a larger each-way bet to cover myself should it only place. For anyone interested, horse is Lucarno. Will go on a massive binge if it wins, or on a massive diet if it fails to place

[eyeresist]

Good luck, but remember, as a wise person once said: Gambling is a tax on people who can't do math.

[Wanderer]

Will go on a massive binge if it wins, or on a massive diet if it fails to place

I support option number one. 

[ezodisy]

Good luck, but remember, as a wise person once said: Gambling is a tax on people who can't do math.

It sure is, especially for those who do it for the most part blindfolded, and who sit day and night at the betting shops or just take wild punts on certain names or reversals. Having said that, I prefer the saying He who dares, wins; not to mention Fortune favours the brave (not to imply there's anything particularly valiant going on here). I've had some great success on dead cat bounces in the past few weeks which never would have happened if I'd stayed on the sidelines. But like I said I wouldn't go in for this sort of betting if it were not for one person whose nickname quite appropriately is Evil Knievel and who considers information the bottom line in both betting and investing (who admits to paying for it, who runs his own horses, who gains or loses hundreds of thousands on the markets every couple of days, and who puts his money where his mouth is, which is a lovely thing -- the money, though the mouth in its humour is rather endearing too). Hopefully virgin's luck pays off here. It looks set to be a fascinating race, which I'm going to briefly delineate below (for my own appreciation).

Race distance of 1 mile 4 furlongs (12 furlongs), only 4 and 5 year olds this year, no 3s, only 8 horses in total, ground supposed to be good to firm, warm temperatures, chance of rain before 4.20pm tomorrow.

The principal question of strategy seems to be on pacemaking, what with several stamina horses in the mix and with 3 horses trained by Aidan O'Brien, one of which will be strictly for pacemaking while another is the overall favourite yet has never run a race as long as 1m4f before.

3 O'Briens:

Duke of Marmalade (5/6 currently) - 4 years old, out-and-out favourite, has had an excellent winning season so far, appears strong on firm ground, the question is how it will handle this longer unprecedented distance of 12furlongs (its previous distance is 10.5, apparently not run truly), and whether it has the advantage of its own pacemaker, Red Rock Canyon, setting what's expected to be a more restrained run so DoM can use its lightning sprint along the straight. Given this question mark over its stamina and the apparent strategy of the O'Brien stable I would say that the stamina/bull horses Lucarno and Ask will force the pace and that it's a risk worth taking.

Macarthur (14/1) - 4yo, the third of the O'Brien stable, an apparent second runner to DoM, I don't know much about this one except that it has a decent record of 3 wins and 4 3rds out of 9 starts, not sure about its Group 1 record though.

Youmzain (10/3) - 5yo, apparent second favourite, has a record of coming from behind and needs a truly run race to perform at its best. End of June won in France by uncharacteristically pushing hard from the start (watched this one on Youtube, good race). Its connections have expressed doubt over their chances in a slower paced race and are happy to see Lucarno in the mix as they expect more force upfront. One thing definitely not in its favour will be the firm ground -- apparently it favours soft and does not have a brilliant record in current conditions. Finished second last year. Racing distance of 1m4f appears to be a minimum for this horse.

Lucarno (8/1) - 4yo, someting of the dark horse in the group, a stamina bull, won at St Leger last season then took the winter off and has only been racing several times this season and generally takes a while to get into form, as it apparently now has with a strong led-from-start win at Newmarket three weeks ago. Known for racing prominently, favours firm ground, the main horse expected to push the pace even though jockey Jimmy Fortune has expressed his comfort with restraining the horse till the end. Overall record of 5 wins and 2 2nds from 11 starts, good record at Ascot. This is the horse I've bet on, having read what I can it appears in good form now and if it pushes strongly I expect it to place.

Papal Bull (8/1) - 5yo, apparently very strong with a good record, finished second to Lucarno at Newmarket 3 weeks ago and its connections don't appear particularly optimistic for Saturday. Tends to finish strongly and apparently would favour a more restrained pace (in spite of its name). 6 wins, 2 2nds and a third from 17 starts. General opinion appears to be at best a place.

Ask (14/1) - 5yo, like Youmzain no question about overall stamina, like Lucarno another dark horse appearing capable of placing. Overall record of 4 wins, 3 2nds and a third from 11 starts. Appears to have underachieved at top level, tends to favour softer ground, generally considered an outside chance as the odds show.

Petara Bay (50/1) - 4yo, took third behind Lucarno and Papal Bull at Newmarket three weeks ago (a career best finish). Don't know much about him and obviously appears out of favour.

So it'll be a fascinating race, most likely hinging on the pacemakers and who gets the trip. If I were superstitious I would count several things in my favour which are connected to me in some way: Lucarno's origin (US, racing in UK), apparently Italian name, and the race time which is the same as an old and invariably observed smoking ritual back in the day.

[ezodisy]

ouch  £900 for a worthless piece of paper. He appeared to be running well, riding the coattails of the pacemaker into the final straight. Then it appears, the uphill straight of several furlongs, and it's as if he suddenly got a dead leg and hopelessly sank (along with my stomach). I knew before that his final acceleration was not his strong point but that was just embarrassing. You can see a replay on the BBC (at least UK viewers can). It was a thrilling conclusion, in fact it was the third fastest renewal in history, and Duke of Marmalade proved that he could stay the distance, recover from a late surging run by Papal Bull in which the latter actually took the lead with half a furlong to go, and overall finish 9 lengths clear of the third place horse (Youmzain, whose positioning on the straight was awful). The replay is worth seeing for the end. I don't really mind about the lost money -- the result is not going to increase my sperm count but I expect to make it back in the early part of this week. I had a far stupider, completely unforgivable time about three weeks ago when my hunger outstripped any semblance of sanity that remains. Ironically it ended in a handsome profit, it was the paper loss that never should have happened. EK lost £12k on this horse, which is a drop in an ocean for him. Quite good stuff otherwise, the aspects are interesting to consider if ultimately primitive.

[Peregrine]

My downstairs neighbour reckons he's a retired 'professional gambler'....

[ezodisy]

My downstairs neighbour reckons he's a retired 'professional gambler'....

callling yourself a retired professional gambler can only mean one thing -- he's now on the security of the dole

[Peregrine]

callling yourself a retired professional gambler can only mean one thing -- he's now on the security of the dole

He's actually an elderly chap, retired back in the early 90's then became a 'professional gambler'. he's very nudge, nudge, wink, wink about it all, cracks me up!

[ezodisy]

Not sure what you're trying to push but I would never, ever touch software or programmes in either sport or shares. They're a complete waste of time IMO. Goodluck to you if you use them though.