GMG Classical Music Forum

The Back Room => The Diner => Topic started by: vandermolen on May 01, 2017, 10:14:35 PM

Title: Brexit
Post by: vandermolen on May 01, 2017, 10:14:35 PM
So, what's your view on how these are going?
Looks like the whole thing is breaking down to me.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/uk_leaves_the_eu
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: 71 dB on May 01, 2017, 11:01:41 PM
What's wrong with the brits? What do they want with all these isolation plans? Do they really believe they do better leaving the EU? Really?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on May 01, 2017, 11:21:00 PM
It's a tragicomedy with one obvious loser - and the final stage in the dissolution of an ernstwhile empire, now that Gibraltar, Akrotiri and Dhekelia at Cyprus, Northern Ireland and Scotland will be forced to choose their own destinies. 

With one big lesson to all Europeans (and Americans, but there's an even better warning at hand): democracy cannot be co-exist with referenda and other forms of so-called 'direct democracy' (serving the agenda of autocrats and other political adventurists only).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: pjme on May 01, 2017, 11:57:15 PM
AMEN!

P.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on May 02, 2017, 12:44:08 AM
So one has the choice between demagogues (who play the masses, so referenda are bad) and techno-bureaucrats who are entrenched so deeply that it is extremely hard to remove them either. Or if a government is changed, the EU and international banks force their policy on them anyway, because as Schäuble said, pacta sunt servanda and democracy be damned, if "your" government has agreed to some shady deals years ago, there is no point in removing it because you are stuck with the shady deals anyway.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 02, 2017, 01:06:19 AM
I thouroughly agree that referendums are an inadequate way of making complex decisions, which are in this day and age basically all decisions of any importance  (health care,  security,  international relations).

But that shouldn't blind us for the fact that the archaic bipolar British parliamentary system failed in an epic way to present people with well informed and considered guidance at forehand, and with adequate opposition or scrutiny of the political course in the aftermath of the referendum.

Logically the best option for Britain would have been to remain part of the internal market and join the European Free Trade Association (EFTA).
But no.... Since the decision to leave the EU wasn't based on any logical grounds anyway, that option was ruled out...

Where will it go from here? Since the expectations on the side of the hard line Tories who are in charge on the British side are unrealistic and their political manouvering space nil, we're heading for a rift between the UK and the EU resulting in a "hard" Brexit. Perhaps with the single exception of a deal on EU citizens in the UK and vice versa.
Unless the UK government for some reason backs down at the last moment or in the event of a political crisis in the UK that halts a Brexit. Either possibility seems less likely.

I guess Brits are going to regain full controle of their "Empire 2.0" and are going to have to live with it...

And all possible blame for the disastrous result will of course be squarely put on the EU....
Who wants to be responsible for the consequences of their own decisions anyway? 8) The political events in the US are an example in case.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: zamyrabyrd on May 02, 2017, 01:07:36 AM
Quote from: Christo on May 01, 2017, 11:21:00 PM
With one big lesson to all Europeans (and Americans, but there's an even better warning at hand): democracy cannot be co-exist with referenda and other forms of so-called 'direct democracy' (serving the agenda of autocrats and other political adventurists only).

So people are only useful idiots whose votes are subject to manipulation by the most unscrupulous.
Why not just declare a One World Autocracy now and be done once and for all with the illusion of democracy?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on May 02, 2017, 01:09:22 AM
Quote from: zamyrabyrd on May 02, 2017, 01:07:36 AMSo people are only useful idiots whose votes are subject to manipulation by the most unscrupulous.
Why not just declare a One World Autocracy now and be done once and for all with the illusion of democracy?
I just plead FOR democracy - and AGAINST the abuse of voters. So-called 'direct democracy' is actually the opposte of democracy and is most effectively used by autocratic leadership (think of the last century's examples, varying from the extreme right to the extreme left, but all of them anti-democrats).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on May 02, 2017, 01:18:45 AM
Former British Prime Ministers with as widely divergent views as Clement Attlee and Margaret Thatcher both believed that the use of a referendum was completely against British constitutional practice. David Cameron made a terrible misjudgement in my view. We elect governments to govern. Also, Cameron was foolish not to enfranchise 16 and 17 year olds who will be most affected by the disastrous (IMHO) Brexit decision. Had he done so we would not be leaving the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on May 02, 2017, 01:20:19 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on May 02, 2017, 01:18:45 AMFormer British Prime Ministers with as widely divergent views as Clement Attlee and Margaret Thatcher both believed that the use of a referendum was completely against British constitutional practice. David Cameron made a terrible misjudgement in my view. We elect governments to govern. Also, Cameron was foolish not to enfranchise 16 and 17 year olds who will be most affected by the disastrous (IMHO) Brexit decision. Had he done so we would not be leaving the EU.
Fully agree.  :)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on May 02, 2017, 01:20:57 AM
Quote from: 71 dB on May 01, 2017, 11:01:41 PM
What's wrong with the brits? What do they want with all these isolation plans? Do they really believe they do better leaving the EU? Really?
48% of us didn't want to leave the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on May 02, 2017, 01:22:50 AM
Quote from: Christo on May 01, 2017, 11:21:00 PM
It's a tragicomedy with one obvious loser - and the final stage in the dissolution of an ernstwhile empire, now that Gibraltar, Akrotiri and Dhekelia at Cyprus, Northern Ireland and Scotland will be forced to choose their own destinies. 

With one big lesson to all Europeans (and Americans, but there's an even better warning at hand): democracy cannot be co-exist with referenda and other forms of so-called 'direct democracy' (serving the agenda of autocrats and other political adventurists only).
And I totally agree with this.  :)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on May 02, 2017, 01:23:21 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on May 02, 2017, 01:20:57 AM
48% of us didn't want to leave the EU.
And the other half couldn't know what they were 'voting' about.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 02, 2017, 02:05:14 AM
Quote from: Christo on May 02, 2017, 01:23:21 AM
And the other half couldn't know what they were 'voting' about.

The "good" news is that they will find out soon enough...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on May 02, 2017, 02:13:44 AM
Quote from: Que on May 02, 2017, 02:05:14 AMThe "good" news is that they will find out soon enough...

Q
You're right: the warning effects of both the Brexit and the Trumpolini experiments on European voters are already visible.  :)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 02, 2017, 02:32:13 AM
Britain's complacency over Brexit will end in humiliation (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/02/britain-complacency-brexit-humiliation--france-germany-eu-uk)

Why do many of the British elite believe they do not need the EU, unlike their French and German counterparts? One reason is their rose-tinted view of Britain's history. Britain did not need to rebuild its international reputation in the same way as Germany did after the war. But too many see Britain as a beacon of democracy and liberty. Too few are aware that the country's colonial historymeans that much of the rest of the world is more ambivalent – and that Britain is less trusted and admired – than they imagine. EU membership often helped to mitigate these historical tensions, while allowing Britain to punch above its weight by enabling it to act as a bridge between the EU and the US.

Much of the British elite know little about how Britain's economy compares. Few realise that three-quarters of the country is poorer than the EU-15 average; that Britain's growth performance has been mediocre at best; or that there are relatively few British-owned and managed businesses with a strong record of growth. There are bright spots in the British economy, but its commanding heights owe much to foreign capital and expertise. Foreign-owned businesses generate more than half the country's exports, and many of these exports are intermediate goods – links in international, predominantly European, supply chains. These companies are especially vulnerable to Britain leaving the single market. If the British economy were more locally owned and managed, it would be easier to understand the British complacency over the economic impact of Brexit. But for a developed country so dependent on foreign capital to do something so damaging to its ability to attract that capital has few precedents.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 02, 2017, 02:40:57 AM
Just to make myself clear: there isn't any "Schadenfreude" on my part - each and every European will pay the price for this utter folly....
Even though the British will have to bear the brunt of the damage themselves...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: 71 dB on May 02, 2017, 04:31:25 AM
The question is how many years before the Brenter Negotiations start?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: mc ukrneal on May 02, 2017, 05:05:26 AM
Too much doom and gloom. An FTA with the EU would bring a lot of the advantages without the disadvantages. What's more, many of the other European countries are dealing with similar sentiments, as the election in France currently shows.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 02, 2017, 07:45:24 AM
Quote from: mc ukrneal on May 02, 2017, 05:05:26 AM
Too much doom and gloom. An FTA with the EU would bring a lot of the advantages without the disadvantages. What's more, many of the other European countries are dealing with similar sentiments, as the election in France currently shows.

Have your cake and eat it.... We've heard that one before.... :D

Less cooperation = less compromise/ loss of sovereignty ("disadvantages") = less economic & political benefits.

And Brexit is not going to alter the economic consequences of globalisation, nor is it going to affect immigration from outside of the EU, nor will it dimish social and economic  inequality within the UK, nor is it going to restore the British Empire to its former "glory"... All of which in my observation have been the main reasons for people to favour Brexit.
Are they in for a surprise....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on May 02, 2017, 11:29:30 PM
Quote from: mc ukrneal on May 02, 2017, 05:05:26 AM
Too much doom and gloom. An FTA with the EU would bring a lot of the advantages without the disadvantages. What's more, many of the other European countries are dealing with similar sentiments, as the election in France currently shows.
I hope that you're right but I'm not encouraged at the moment.

Thanks to everyone for the interesting responses.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: DaveF on May 02, 2017, 11:56:27 PM
Quote from: vandermolen on May 02, 2017, 01:18:45 AM
David Cameron made a terrible misjudgement in my view.

That's assuming he is a man of principle who genuinely wanted to give the UK electorate the chance to strengthen the UK's links with the EU.  Assuming, on the other hand, that the referendum promise was merely a manoeuvre to get him re-elected, it was a perfect bit of judgement.  I don't know whether, like Johnson, he had a pro- and anti-EU speech written to be used as required - but it wouldn't surprise me to learn that he had.

So, what's up next?  Capital punishment?  Outlawing Christianity?  Demolishing all those elitist theatres and concert halls?  I'm sure the great British electorate would vote them all through with large majorities.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on May 03, 2017, 01:01:44 AM
Quote from: DaveF on May 02, 2017, 11:56:27 PMSo, what's up next?  Capital punishment?  Outlawing Christianity?  Demolishing all those elitist theatres and concert halls?  I'm sure the great British electorate would vote them all through with large majorities.

Exactly my point: we're witnessing times of anti-democratic flirtations sold as "democracy".
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on May 03, 2017, 01:07:23 AM
I thought that Cameron's gambit had had two purposes: Get him reelected and strengthen the bargaining position with the EU because of the looming Brexit-threat. (Both after a narrow vote against Brexit.) Needless to say that the perennial special role of the UK did not make them all that popular even before the Brexit began to loom. So while I feel with the 48% who voted differently, overall my pity with the UK is severely limited, I am afraid.
@Dave: Have you read any of Fforde's "Thursday Next" books? There is a People's Republic of Wales in their alternative timeline...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on May 03, 2017, 01:09:31 AM
Quote from: Christo on May 03, 2017, 01:01:44 AM
Exactly my point: we're witnessing times of anti-democratic flirtations sold as "democracy".

If Plato came back to life, he'd not be surprised in the least. "I told you so long time ago, gentlemen! And mark my words well this time: the worst is yet to come!"  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: 71 dB on May 03, 2017, 02:33:02 AM
Quote from: Christo on May 03, 2017, 01:01:44 AM
Exactly my point: we're witnessing times of anti-democratic flirtations sold as "democracy".

The reason why we witness this is because people have become too ignorant of politics. They are easily manipulated by opportunists and populists who use fear and false promises as their weapon for power. Democracy works well as long as ignorant people are a small minority, but now they are becoming a large minority or even majority.  ???

At the moment we need moderated democracy (modecracy). We need wise men and women in power to overrule "stupid" political ideology. We need perhaps the possibility to give negative votes in elections to block extremists. We need to make people interested of real unpopulistic politics until we can return to "normal" democracy.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: ahinton on May 03, 2017, 04:18:17 AM
There's been a great deal of welcome good sense in this thread so far.

Mr Cameron had no need even to include the promise of Parliamentary debate and voting on UK's continued EU membership in the manifesto for the 2015 UK General Election, still less a referendum on the issue which, as has already been noted, was the most crass way in which to introduce the subject into the Tory party agenda. No other UK political party included any reference to this in its manifesto pledges, which surely teaches us something about the matter, namely that the undertaking to call a referendum on it was a matter of perceived political expediency on the part of the Tory party - an expediency turned out to be mythical in any case.

The conduct and aftermath of the referendum were shameful beyond words, but the worst aspect of it - even worsre in some ways than the lies, half-truths and acrimony that characterised the campaign - is that neither those who voted Remain nor those who voted Leave nor even the majority of those who abstained were given anything like sufficient reliable information upon which to base their voting decisions.

Moreover, the UK electorate votes and pays squillions for Parliamentarians in the lower House in order that they may avail themselves of the opportunity to place trust in them to represent them and then to vote them out if they fail, so why suddenly delegate responsibility for a matter of the utmost importance for UK's future to the amateurs to decide?

Mr Cameron's allocation of almost £10m to the Remain campaign was also entirely out of order; if the government of the day wanted to persuade the electorate that to remain in EU was in UK's best interests, it should have done that in Parliamentary debate (I write as a Remain supporter in so saying).

The calling of the forthcoming UK General Election seems to have about as much reasoning as that of the referendum two years ago; its principal justification appears to be the perceived need to secure a much larger majority for the Tory party yet, even if that goal is achieved (which must surely be in some doubt), what difference will that make to the strength of UK's negotiation position when none of the other 27 EU nations have any reason to be interested in it? The 1 against 27 factor will remain, unaffected by the strength or weakness of the majority achieved by whichever party wins the UK General Election (even assuming that any one of them actually does so).

"The longest suicide note in history" -  that epithet infamously coined by one of the longest serving UK Labour Party MPs, Sir Gerald Kaufman (who died earlier this year), to describe his own party's 1983 General Election manifesto - looks soon to be overtaken as a descriptor of the manifestos (manifesti?) of both the Tory and the Labour parties (indeed, they might even come to be regarded as being in competition with one another as such), given that those two parties appear to endorse the UK leaving EU on the specious and spurious grounds of "the people have spoken" (yes, around 37% of UK's electorate voted for UK to leave EU and many of them and those who voted Remain didn't know enough of what they spoke).

I cannot imagine either EU or UK coming out of this mess unscathed; rather the reverse, indeed...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 05, 2017, 01:26:55 AM
Here Are 34 Ridiculously Challenging Problems Theresa May Will Have To Figure Out To Avoid A Brexit Disaster (https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexspence/now-comes-the-hard-part?utm_term=.qcbkKKxaM1#.brqwMMm12r)

Just browse through all if these wonderful "opportunities".... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on May 05, 2017, 09:26:55 AM
(//)
Quote from: Christo on May 03, 2017, 01:01:44 AM
Exactly my point: we're witnessing times of anti-democratic flirtations sold as "democracy".
Totally agree - sadly.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on May 16, 2017, 04:13:52 AM
"When I watch this video, it makes me think of Brexit."

https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/863754505552375810
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on May 26, 2017, 07:12:30 AM
The General Election and Brexit...

Clearly the upcoming General Election is beyond normal as it will be followed by Brexit negotiations and all that that entails. Voters who are concerned to try to minimise the chance of an unchecked "hard Brexit" can make use of this Dashboard to see who may be best placed in your own constituency to try and achieve this. It is not about party politics, it is about democracy. (The people behind this include Gina Miller who prevented Theresa May from bypassing parliament regarding Article 50).

(Feel free to share this link with others)

https://bestforbritain.org/vote-smart (https://bestforbritain.org/vote-smart)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 02, 2017, 08:40:12 AM
http://evolvepolitics.com/ (http://evolvepolitics.com/)

http://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.uk/ (http://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.uk/)

https://www.thecanary.co/ (https://www.thecanary.co/)

Apparently these are getting more read than the online version of the Daily Hate. There is hope. 👏

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on June 02, 2017, 08:26:23 PM
Though almost everyone is predicting a strong victory for her, May seems to experience more problems in her campaign than expected.

Here´s one case where she doesn´t do well - is caught lying or being very uninformed, then makes a poor escape from it:
"Theresa_May tells a nurse who says she earns the same as they did in 2009 that sadly there 'isn't a magic money tree"
https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/870732339155836928

Another strong point of critique is her manifest absence from public debates with other politicians. Officially, she "prefers meeting the voters", but those meetings are usually staged and organized by her own party.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Holden on June 03, 2017, 12:35:03 AM
I was in the UK recently and took some time to ask as many Brits as I could what they thought of Brexit. I got opinions from all stratas of society and overwhelmingly, there was agreement that this has been the right thing to do.

Some common themes emerged:

Unchecked immigration was the major one followed by the idea of the country having more of a say in its own destiny. I wondered if xenophobia was the reason behind the immigration concerns. Many told me that they just saw streams of people who could legally come into the country putting a huge strain on welfare and especially the excellent health system that the Brits have. There was no mention of any specific ideology or ethnic group, they just saw people escaping inferior systems to take advantage of what the UK had to offer. The equitability of propping up very weak economies at the expense of their own was a concern.

One thing all were agreed on. They were very thankful that the UK had retained their own currency and not adopted the Euro.

These were the views that registered with me yet I didn't see them reflected in the media. Maybe, once again, they are out of touch or maybe my survey came from a very narrow slice of the electorate.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 03, 2017, 01:06:50 AM
Quote from: Holden on June 03, 2017, 12:35:03 AM
I was in the UK recently and took some time to ask as many Brits as I could what they thought of Brexit. I got opinions from all stratas of society and overwhelmingly, there was agreement that this has been the right thing to do.

16.1 million voted to remain in the EU; 17.4 to leave. It was not an overwhelming result. And given that 28% of eligible voters abstained, neither campaign gained anywhere near a majority.

Perhaps like T**** in the USA, the issue and the result aroused great anger, division and bitterness, including a rise in hate crimes and the murder of an MP.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 03, 2017, 01:57:32 AM
Quote from: Holden on June 03, 2017, 12:35:03 AM
I was in the UK recently and took some time to ask as many Brits as I could what they thought of Brexit. I got opinions from all stratas of society and overwhelmingly, there was agreement that this has been the right thing to do.

Some common themes emerged:

Unchecked immigration was the major one followed by the idea of the country having more of a say in its own destiny. I wondered if xenophobia was the reason behind the immigration concerns. Many told me that they just saw streams of people who could legally come into the country putting a huge strain on welfare and especially the excellent health system that the Brits have. There was no mention of any specific ideology or ethnic group, they just saw people escaping inferior systems to take advantage of what the UK had to offer. The equitability of propping up very weak economies at the expense of their own was a concern.

One thing all were agreed on. They were very thankful that the UK had retained their own currency and not adopted the Euro.

These were the views that registered with me yet I didn't see them reflected in the media. Maybe, once again, they are out of touch or maybe my survey came from a very narrow slice of the electorate.

Oh, definitely immigration was a major concern that led to support for a Brexit.
But as per usual the popular assumptions you describe are unfounded, not to say delusional...

Long story short: people blamed real problems they have on immigration, like a lack of proper housing and the lowering of wages, and increase in social and economic inequality. But they have no one but the successive British governments to blame for that, not the EU or immigration.
See the link to a study of the London School of Economics linked below.
I have quoted the main findings.

As to the "unchecked immigration": that can only refer to immigration from inside the EU, since the UK controls immigration from outside the EU entirely by itself.
And research show that immigrants from inside the EU are NOT the cause of social and economic problems. On the contrary, economists and the business community are worried about the future lack of both cheap labour and highly qualified personel that is in short domestic supply, and the damage it can do to the British economy...

One interesting detail: most EU immigrants in the UK are from Eastern Europe.
Now.... which important member state had been pushing tirelessly EU expansion towards the East?  ::)
For geopolitical reasons and to please their American Masters friends? Right....it was Britain....

It is like Trump's climate change denial: a bogus story
But hey, we live in an era in which the way things really are, doesn't matter anymore!  :laugh:
Complex realities lead to simplified falsehoods - at least people can understand those....  8)
But the politicians don't care, and nor does their electorate...until it figured out it has been conned....and then to blame it on someone else...
I guess it is generally easier to blame other people instead of admitting you were stupid enough to be screwed over by the ruling elite....
Again, Trump's election is another perfect example in case... 8)

The British were right about the euro though.... ;)

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK

- Between 1995 and 2015, the number of immigrants from other European Union (EU) countries living in the UK tripled from 0.9 million to 3.3 million. In 2015, EU net
immigration to the UK was 172,000, only just below the figure of 191,000 for non-EU immigrants.

- The big increase in EU immigration occurred after the 'A8' East European countries joined in 2004. In 2015 29% of EU immigrants were Polish.

- EU immigrants are more educated, younger, more likely to be in work and less likely to claim benefits than the UK-born. About 44% have some form of higher education  compared with only 23% of the UK-born. About a third of EU immigrants live in London, compared with only 11% of the UK-born.

- Many people are concerned that immigration reduces the pay and job chances of the UK-born due to more competition for jobs. But immigrants consume goods and services and this increased demand helps to create more employment opportunities. Immigrants also might have skills that complement UK-born workers. So we need empirical evidence to settle the issue of whether the economic impact of immigration is negative or positive for the UK-born.

- New evidence in this Report shows that the areas of the UK with large increases in EU immigration did not suffer greater falls in the jobs and pay of UK-born workers. The big
falls in wages after 2008 are due to the global financial crisis and a weak economic recovery, not to immigration.

- There is also little effect of EU immigration on inequality through reducing the pay and jobs of less skilled UK workers. Changes in wages and joblessness for less educated UK-born workers show little correlation with changes in EU immigration.

- EU immigrants pay more in taxes than they take out in welfare and the use of public services. They therefore help reduce the budget deficit. Immigrants do not have a negative effect on local services such as crime, education, health, or social housing

- European countries with access to the Single Market must allow free movement of EU citizens whether in the EU (like the UK) or outside it (like Norway and Switzerland).

- The refugee crisis has nothing to do with EU membership. Refugees admitted to Germany have no right to live in the UK. The UK is not in the Schengen passport-free travel agreement so there are border checks on migrants.


Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 03, 2017, 05:33:27 AM
+1, Que.

Non-Brits should be aware that Paul Nuttall is the current leader of the far right UKIP party:

https://youtu.be/tKEsyIuTrO8
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Holden on June 03, 2017, 02:30:47 PM
One caveat - these are the opinions I heard, not my own. In fact I don't have an opinion on Brexit as it's too far removed to really affect me. I was just curious as to what people thought. I also explored EPL and Championship football, something I definitely have opinions about.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 03, 2017, 02:45:12 PM
Quote from: Holden on June 03, 2017, 02:30:47 PM
One caveat - these are the opinions I heard, not my own. In fact I don't have an opinion on Brexit as it's too far removed to really affect me. I was just curious as to what people thought. I also explored EPL and Championship football, something I definitely have opinions about.

That was totally understood.  :) 

And I am not surprised you heard them since these were/are an important driving force behind Brexit.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 04, 2017, 12:47:35 AM
Back to the course - or rather lack thereof - of the negotiations....

The prospect of a "hard", unprepared and abrupt Brexit is becoming more and more likely.
This will hurt Britain, but will also inflict considerable economic damage on EU countries that have important trading relations with the UK, like my own.

Britain is being led to an epic act of national self-harm over Brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/03/britain-being-led-to-epic-act-self-harm-brexit)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 04, 2017, 02:14:18 AM
Quote from: Que on June 04, 2017, 12:47:35 AM
Back to the course - or rather lack thereof - of the negotiations....

The prospect of a "hard", unprepared and abrupt Brexit is becoming more and more likely.
This will hurt Britain, but will also inflict considerable economic damage on EU countries that have important trading relations with the UK, like my own.

Britain is being led to an epic act of national self-harm over Brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/03/britain-being-led-to-epic-act-self-harm-brexit)

Q


This is all true, but far more importantly May gets to stay Prime Minister. And when Brexit goes tits up I'm sure there'll be a few scapegoats to choose from.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 04, 2017, 02:39:34 AM
Quote from: nodogen on June 04, 2017, 02:14:18 AM
This is all true, but far more importantly May gets to stay Prime Minister. And when Brexit goes tits up I'm sure there'll be a few scapegoats to choose from.

Easiest will be I guess to blame everything again on the EU...which is naturally out to "punish" the UK (even if that would inflict damage on its own interests.... the wonders of "reverse psychology"...)

This aftermath would estrange the UK even more from the rest of Europe...

Regarding your best friends and close allies as "enemies" that are out yo get you.... the comparison with the paranoia of Trumpian America isn't far away.

Meanwhile, and most sadly so, the real threats are much closer at home. My thoughts go out to the British people and the victims of the latest terrorist attacks... :(

If anything, the security threats to Europe and our democratic freedoms necessitate more European cooperation and integration.

We actually need a common European defence and a European intelligence agency to stop Putin in the East, contain geopolitical instability to the South and to counter terrorism.

Q
Title: We Will Use the Muzz to Force UK Back Into the EU
Post by: snyprrr on June 04, 2017, 08:11:29 AM
"UK back in the EU, or we unleash the full hell of muzzie aggression upon Londistan,"

-any random UK leader
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on June 04, 2017, 08:28:00 AM
Quote from: Que on June 04, 2017, 02:39:34 AM
[...]
My thoughts go out to the British people and the victims of the latest terrorist attacks... :(

If anything, the security threats to Europe and our democratic freedoms necessitate more European cooperation and integration.

We actually need a common European defence and a European intelligence agency to stop Putin in the East, contain geopolitical instability to the South and to counter terrorism.
[...]

Seconded.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: mc ukrneal on June 04, 2017, 09:31:58 AM
Quote from: Que on June 04, 2017, 12:47:35 AM
Back to the course - or rather lack thereof - of the negotiations....

The prospect of a "hard", unprepared and abrupt Brexit is becoming more and more likely.
This will hurt Britain, but will also inflict considerable economic damage on EU countries that have important trading relations with the UK, like my own.

Britain is being led to an epic act of national self-harm over Brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/03/britain-being-led-to-epic-act-self-harm-brexit)

Q
I really don't think so. There are some short-term downsides, but it will ultimately depend on the exit negotiated and policies going forward.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 04, 2017, 10:28:18 AM
Quote from: mc ukrneal on June 04, 2017, 09:31:58 AM
I really don't think so. There are some short-term downsides, but it will ultimately depend on the exit negotiated and policies going forward.

A "hard" Brexit is per definition an exit without any prior negotiated deal - Britain would become overnight a "third country" without a trade deal with the EU.

Note that any trade deal is a mutual agreement between the UK and the EU, not unilateral wishful "have-your-cake-and-eat-it" thinking.

My point was that the chances of any deal to be reached before the deadline are unfortunately becoming slimmer....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 11, 2017, 01:42:54 AM
It's interesting to see that the UK elections that were supposed to be about Brexit, then in the run up didn't touch Brexit, turn out to be on Brexit after all...

It seems that now May failed to secure a mandate for a hard Brexit, all options are open again...

LibDem doesn't want a Brexit. Labour doesn't want a hard Brexit, but it is unclear if it wants to stay in the internal market.
Scottish Conservatives want a soft Brexit, against a back drop of declining appetite for Scottish independence.
Theresa May new found "friends" (DUP) want a soft Brexit. Moderate Conservatives want a soft Brexit.

Either hardline Brexiteers in the Conservative party back down or the Tories will descend into chaos and their fate will be sealed in a 2nd general election.

Meanwhile the EU has no clue what to negotiate about.... ::)
Britain would be wise to plea for an extention of the deadline, and the EU would be wise to grant it.
My prediction is that there won't be a Brexit any time soon, since the alternative would be a hard Brexit neither the UK nor the EU wants.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on June 11, 2017, 04:44:53 AM
Quote from: Que on June 11, 2017, 01:42:54 AM
....My prediction is that there won't be a Brexit any time soon....

Q

Ever ?

Quote
"I don't think she (Theresa May) does have a majority in the House of Commons for leaving the single market," Anna Soubry, who campaigned for Britain to stay in the EU ahead of last year's referendum, told Sky News

Mon dieu, preservez moi de mes amis, mes ennemis je m'en charge..

Voltaire
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 11, 2017, 06:08:51 AM
Quote from: Spineur on June 11, 2017, 04:44:53 AM
Ever ?

Britain is changing its mind on hard Brexit, and I don't rule out that it will indeed change its mind on Brexit.

However, from the EU perspective it is doubtful it it would want Britain back on board. Perhaps in 5 - 10 years from now, but not right away....

The UK has been a big stumbling block in any progress on European integration for decades.
To bring the EU forward and "save it" the coinciding of geopolitical crises, Brexit and the advent of Macron and subsequent reinvigoration of the Franco-German axis provide a unique opportunity to transform the European Union.

The UK will, when it has come to its senses, be offered a generous deal complete with the Erasmus student exchange program and what have you.
After which the UK wil kindly be shown the way to the door...
Any civil servant I have talked to from various member states, including the UK, knows this: we have passed a mental point of no-return - the UK will be welcome again after the foundations of the next phase of European integration has been laid. And perhaps it wouldn't want to return to a reshaped EU...

QuoteMon dieu, preservez moi de mes amis, mes ennemis je m'en charge..

Voltaire

It is a terrible sight to watch great Western democracies like the US and the UK tearing themselves up from the inside, while supposedly "defending" themselves against outside enemies.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on June 11, 2017, 07:47:37 AM
Quote from: Que on June 11, 2017, 06:08:51 AM
Brexit and the advent of Macron and subsequent reinvigoration of the Franco-German axis provide a unique opportunity to transform the European Union.

Problem is, for the time being the only plan that's been suggested / drafted / discreetly pushed for is a "Union" with different integration levels led by a Franco-German hard core --- a plan which is firmly opposed, and rightly so, by the Eastern European nations, Romania included.  ;D

Quote
It is a terrible sight to watch great Western democracies like the US and the UK tearing themselves up from the inside, while supposedly "defending" themselves against outside enemies.

US is in a much better position than UK and will absorb the Trump shock smoother than will the UK absorb the Brexit shock. In any case, rumors about their demise have been greatly exaggerated.  :)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 11, 2017, 07:58:43 AM
Quote from: Que on June 11, 2017, 06:08:51 AM


It is a terrible sight to watch great Western democracies like the US and the UK tearing themselves up from the inside, while supposedly "defending" themselves against outside enemies.

Q

It is. The current US administration have a definite agenda to destroy their own state in order to make the world safe for billionaires to get even more obscenely rich, at the expense of everyone else and possibly the viability of the planet. The U.K. on the other hand is being driven off a cliff by a woman whose stubbornness, vanity and cold-heartedness seem boundless.
I think I'll stay under the duvet.😡
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Todd on June 11, 2017, 08:36:18 AM
Quote from: nodogen on June 11, 2017, 07:58:43 AMThe current US administration have a definite agenda to destroy their own state in order to make the world safe for billionaires to get even more obscenely rich, at the expense of everyone else and possibly the viability of the planet.


Incorrect.  And even if this were the case, it wouldn't happen.  Yurpeans simply don't understand the US, as this forum demonstrates time and time again.

Watching what is happening in Europe makes me even more thankful for George Washington.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Richard Pinnell on June 11, 2017, 01:12:06 PM
Quote from: Que on June 11, 2017, 06:08:51 AM
Britain is changing its mind on hard Brexit, and I don't rule out that it will indeed change its mind on Brexit.

it is probably true to say that if a second referendum was held now, the first result would probably be overturned.

The reality is though that it will take a second General Election this year to push us anywhere near that eventuality. I don't rule that out completely, but it looks increasingly unlikely.

I am more inclined to think that Brexit will hurt, and hurt the UK badly, as those of us strongly against it always knew it would, and some kind of return to the EU will become the major point of discussion for the next General Election in a few years time.

The result of the Brexit referendum is the perfect example of what happens when stupid people realise they can also play a part in democracy.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 11, 2017, 02:22:49 PM
This is a bit masochistic of me, given I'd really want a Labour government, but as the clock is ticking on Brexit, this might be a good time NOT to be in government, given that Brexit will turn to an omnishit.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 11, 2017, 09:15:50 PM
Quote from: Richard Pinnell on June 11, 2017, 01:12:06 PM
it is probably true to say that if a second referendum was held now, the first result would probably be overturned.

The reality is though that it will take a second General Election this year to push us anywhere near that eventuality. I don't rule that out completely, but it looks increasingly unlikely.

I am more inclined to think that Brexit will hurt, and hurt the UK badly, as those of us strongly against it always knew it would, and some kind of return to the EU will become the major point of discussion for the next General Election in a few years time.

I agree that Brexit is likely to happen.

BTW for a future return the others have to agree. De Gaulle blocked a British entry twice, believing that Britain wasn't really adhering to the ideal of European integration. Very perceptive of him.... The Brits didn't enter the EU under the leadership of the Conservatives to be (politically) integrated into Europe, they came for the considerable economic benefits of the internal market. The result of the referendum is a reflection of that same sentiment, though I'm aware many Brits also valued the improvement in air quality, food safety and social rights that came along with it.
Anyway,  I don't think the EU 27 are going to make the same mistake twice, which means the UK is out for now...

I am curious to see what kind of Brexit British politics will be aiming for.
If the deadline for negotiations is not extended, the choice might be between a non negotiated (hard) exit and the quick fix of staying in the internal market and remain a party to the Agreement on the European Economic Area. That fix is so quick that it could be achieved even after another general election...

It is going to be another cliff hanger.... ???

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on June 11, 2017, 09:28:41 PM
Quote from: Todd on June 11, 2017, 08:36:18 AMYurpeans simply don't understand the US, as this forum demonstrates time and time again.
As if 'Europeans' exist.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on June 11, 2017, 09:33:35 PM
Quote from: Todd on June 11, 2017, 08:36:18 AM

Incorrect.  And even if this were the case, it wouldn't happen.  Yurpeans simply don't understand the US, as this forum demonstrates time and time again.

Watching what is happening in Europe makes me even more thankful for George Washington.

To compare things happening in Europe nowadays with the achievements of George Washington demonstrates you simply don't understand the current European situation and its history.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on June 11, 2017, 09:48:55 PM
Quote from: Christo on June 11, 2017, 09:28:41 PM
As if 'Europeans' exist.

Exactly.
But let's not make things too complicated.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 11, 2017, 10:03:36 PM
Brexit-lite back on the table as Britain rethinks its options after election (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/11/brexit-lite-back-on-table-as-britain-rethinks-options-after-election)



One minor possible glitch: Norway doesn't like the prospect of the UK dominating the European Free Trade Association  (EFTA).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: kishnevi on June 12, 2017, 07:45:13 AM
Quote from: Marc on June 11, 2017, 09:33:35 PM
To compare things happening in Europe nowadays with the achievements of George Washington demonstrates you simply don't understand the current European situation and its history.

One of the guiding principles of Washington and the other American Founders was to keep out of European power politics as much as possible (not easy, and not always obtainable, since the European powers saw no reason to keep America out of their power politics).  And of course, Washington, as general of the Revolution, made sure that we here in the US were not, as dependents of Britain, sucked unwillingly into  European quarrels.   We were sucked into European quarrels, willingly and sometimes not, but at least it was on our own account, not that of Britain.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Richard Pinnell on June 12, 2017, 09:52:05 AM
Quote from: Que on June 11, 2017, 09:15:50 PMAnyway,  I don't think the EU 27 are going to make the same mistake twice, which means the UK is out for now

I'm no expert, but I don't see it that way. Certainly the European Union is stronger with the UK included, just as the UK also needs Europe to prosper. It's clear that the UK needs Europe to prosper more than the other way around, but there are mutual benefits, and believe me, however virtuous DeGaulle may have been, the various leaders out there right now are far more swayed by economic benefits than he once was!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on June 12, 2017, 09:59:01 AM
Quote from: Jeffrey Smith on June 12, 2017, 07:45:13 AM
One of the guiding principles of Washington and the other American Founders was to keep out of European power politics as much as possible (not easy, and not always obtainable, since the European powers saw no reason to keep America out of their power politics).  And of course, Washington, as general of the Revolution, made sure that we here in the US were not, as dependents of Britain, sucked unwillingly into  European quarrels.   We were sucked into European quarrels, willingly and sometimes not, but at least it was on our own account, not that of Britain.

Thanks.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on June 12, 2017, 10:03:19 AM
The problem is that almost everyone in continental Europe was already pissed with the perennial cherry-picking and special status the UK always demanded within the EU, so we can hardly be blamed that some have the notion of "good riddance" and don't really feel like extending another special status offering etc. after the UK gave the EU the finger with Brexit.
And the UK is not that special anymore. If the North Sea Oil dries up they are really going to be in a fix because in the long term rent extraction and globalized fraud by city banksters cannot keep an economy going.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 12, 2017, 10:07:04 AM
Quote from: nodogen on June 11, 2017, 02:22:49 PM
This is a bit masochistic of me, given I'd really want a Labour government, but as the clock is ticking on Brexit, this might be a good time NOT to be in government, given that Brexit will turn to an omnishit.

Best case scenario I can see is the Tories limp on for a bit in chaotic fashion propped up by the DUP while a Tory party civil war erupts over Brexit. Their remainers like Soubry and Davidson are already saying that the election result shows the public has rejected a hard Brexit, while the Brexiteers are demanding that we carry on full steam ahead towards the iceberg. They're in real trouble unless there's some kind of compromise position that would satisfy both sides, but it's hard to see what that could be. If the Labour "moderates" acknowledge they were wrong about Corbyn being a guarantee of electoral annihilation and start to support him, in a few months time we could have a united Labour party up against a Tory party tearing itself apart. If this also means the Tories are completely incapable of conducting the Brexit negotiations effectively they'll look like a lame duck government led by a lame duck PM. We can but hope!   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on June 12, 2017, 10:08:02 AM
Quote from: Richard Pinnell on June 12, 2017, 09:52:05 AM
I'm no expert, but I don't see it that way. Certainly the European Union is stronger with the UK included, just as the UK also needs Europe to prosper. It's clear that the UK needs Europe to prosper more than the other way around, but there are mutual benefits, and believe me, however virtuous DeGaulle may have been, the various leaders out there right now are far more swayed by economic benefits than he once was!
I am no expert either.  But England has a functionning army and navy.  With the US being somewhat unreliable for the next 3 years, cooperation with the UK has to be preserved on that front.  The economic issues are and will be a mess because the web of legal transcription of EU commercial directives are going to be so hard to rework.
In any event I think its going to require a great deal of compromising from all side to clean up the mess.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Todd on June 12, 2017, 10:55:17 AM
Quote from: Christo on June 11, 2017, 09:28:41 PM
As if 'Europeans' exist.


That's sort of the problem, you see.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 12, 2017, 10:55:36 AM
I've just read that at the 1922 committee meeting May was "contrite." I can only conclude that was a typo. Still, she can stay in No.10 till they decide to release the trap door. 😈
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Richard Pinnell on June 12, 2017, 11:02:54 AM
Quote from: Spineur on June 12, 2017, 10:08:02 AMEngland has a functionning army and navy

Sorry to be pedantic, but it's pertinent here to point out that the army and navy belong to the UK, not just England. It's ignorant English nationalism that has got us into this mess in the first place so better not to fuel it any further!! 😉
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Richard Pinnell on June 12, 2017, 11:04:36 AM
Anyway I'm writing this moments before a (cough) chamber orchestra performance of Mahler's 9th. It's a good job the music of the past is immune from any Brexit. 😉
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on June 13, 2017, 11:49:33 AM
France Macron says the door is always open for the UK to stay in the EU

http://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews1/idUKKBN1942KO (http://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews1/idUKKBN1942KO)

W. Schauble just said the same thing this afternoon.

Let see who picks those statements up among the UK politicians
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 14, 2017, 12:14:13 AM
Quote from: Spineur on June 13, 2017, 11:49:33 AM
France Macron says the door is always open for the UK to stay in the EU

http://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews1/idUKKBN1942KO (http://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews1/idUKKBN1942KO)

W. Schauble just said the same thing this afternoon.

Let see who picks those statements up among the UK politicians

A generous act of your new benevolent ruler!  :)

But I think it's a mistake.... now is not the time...

Unless the UK miraculously turns into one of the driving forces behind a reformed, stronger more integrated and unified European Union.

Which it won't. The Brits have been party poopers right from the moment they became a member and only interested in free trade...

(Newsflash: the EU is, and was founded to be, more than just a free trade zone...)

The UK blackmailed the EU for rebates and opt outs, pressed a US geopolitical agenda and blocked any meaningful integration as much as it could.

I think a time out is in order. And it is time for the EU to move forward...

As far as I'm concerned the UK can get any reasonable deal safe for a return to membership. Why not remain part of the internal market?

Legally I think all of the EU 27 have to agree to reverse the British exit since the UK has already exercised its unilateral right to leave.

The exit is already a legal fact, though there is a delay for it to take effect. Reentry means renegotiation.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on June 14, 2017, 02:27:04 AM
Let them stew and face a brave new world in alliance with Trump which doesn't even dare to visit the UK. Perhaps some sense will prevail in the long run.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 14, 2017, 09:07:27 AM
Quote from: The new erato on June 14, 2017, 02:27:04 AM
Let them stew and face a brave new world in alliance with Trump which doesn't even dare to visit the UK. Perhaps some sense will prevail in the long run.

I hope so too. May must get no chance to offload blame to others; she has been the strong and stable robot. While the countdown to her demise continues unfortunately I have to live in this stew! 😡
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Richard Pinnell on June 14, 2017, 12:28:47 PM
Quote from: nodogen on June 14, 2017, 09:07:27 AM
I hope so too. May must get no chance to offload blame to others; she has been the strong and stable robot. While the countdown to her demise continues unfortunately I have to live in this stew! 😡

Yes. I feel the same. About time to finally get that revolution rolling? 😉
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 14, 2017, 12:49:02 PM
Quote from: Richard Pinnell on June 14, 2017, 12:28:47 PM
Yes. I feel the same. About time to finally get that revolution rolling? 😉

In all seriousness, I do wonder what the near future holds for the UK. So many issues coming to a head, and a very divided country. I think May and the tories are on the ropes yet the country is supposed to accept a Tory govt propped up by 10 nutjobs with a paramilitary background? Uh, hello???
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 14, 2017, 03:24:40 PM
Quote from: nodogen on June 14, 2017, 12:49:02 PM
I think May and the tories are on the ropes yet the country is supposed to accept a Tory govt propped up by 10 nutjobs with a paramilitary background? Uh, hello???

I'm still waiting for the Daily Mail and the Sun to go into fits of splenetic fury at the very idea of a paramilitary-backed party having such influence over the government of the UK. You know, the same kind of frothing outrage we saw so much of when they were trying to smear Corbyn as the terrorists' friend.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Scion7 on June 17, 2017, 12:32:32 AM
Exit the EU, and militarily rebuild the British Empire.
The Netherlands are just SITTING there, helpless - let's get the Ark Royal in ship-shape and move in as a first step.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 18, 2017, 06:09:53 AM
Quote from: Scion7 on June 17, 2017, 12:32:32 AM
Exit the EU, and militarily rebuild the British Empire.
The Netherlands are just SITTING there, helpless - let's get the Ark Royal in ship-shape and move in as a first step.

I think that may be Plan B.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 27, 2017, 02:56:45 PM
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/d45b82b0a2298dd68efb19bc55bb43b651ae1b49/0_0_650_444/master/650.jpg?w=940&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=08c281a4815ca48390552f1bd38bf34e)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 28, 2017, 01:14:34 AM
Quote from: Que on June 27, 2017, 02:56:45 PM
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/d45b82b0a2298dd68efb19bc55bb43b651ae1b49/0_0_650_444/master/650.jpg?w=940&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=08c281a4815ca48390552f1bd38bf34e)

Steve Bell is thankfully merciless.

I see today the cracks are already starting to show amongst the tories.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on July 04, 2017, 01:44:55 PM
Was Hunt's note view a slip or a slip on purpose??!!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/04/hard-brexit-means-people-fleeing-uk-jeremy-hunt-note-says (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/04/hard-brexit-means-people-fleeing-uk-jeremy-hunt-note-says)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on July 17, 2017, 11:48:44 AM
Come on Theresa get your act together, time is running out

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-idUKKBN1A218M (http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-idUKKBN1A218M)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on July 17, 2017, 01:20:05 PM
Quote from: Spineur on July 17, 2017, 11:48:44 AM
Come on Theresa get your act together, time is running out

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-idUKKBN1A218M (http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-idUKKBN1A218M)

Her act is together. This is as good as she gets.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 17, 2017, 09:35:05 PM
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/f0cd4df392ec5730f15b1a816651e0ad2367fa5a/0_0_2693_1819/master/2693.jpg?w=940&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=68d6d1cdab32460711845c3451c66f90)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on July 17, 2017, 11:11:48 PM
My daughter sent me this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/17/brexit-stopped-second-referendum
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 18, 2017, 09:21:04 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on July 17, 2017, 11:11:48 PM
My daughter sent me this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/17/brexit-stopped-second-referendum

I agree, there is simply insufficient popular support for a reversal of Brexit.

Perhaps there will be at the last minute, but by that time it will be too late....

Best case scenario would be the UK staying in the internal market and customs union as a transitional arrangement.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on July 18, 2017, 09:36:26 AM
Quote from: Que on July 18, 2017, 09:21:04 AM
I agree, there is simply insufficient popular support for a reversal of Brexit.

Perhaps there will be at the last minute, but by that time it will be too late....

Best case scenario would be the UK staying in the internal market and customs union as a transitional arrangement.

Q
Public opinion swings can be really startling.  The plot of the ratio for/against a second referendum as a function of time extrapolates to 85/15 in 6 months.  Not that I believe this really, but we may all be surprised..
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on July 18, 2017, 09:58:13 PM
The problem is compounded by having a referendum with no contingency plan for a vote to leave the EU followed by Theresa May deciding the UK will leave by a particular date, without time to enact all the necessary legislation.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 18, 2017, 10:11:31 PM
Quote from: vandermolen on July 18, 2017, 09:58:13 PM
[...] without time to enact all the necessary legislation.

Or without a plan...other than just get out...

I think the delusion that the UK just can walk away, without any serious consequences for the economy, policies in several areas as well as the relations with other countries is at the root of the UK government's "strategy" or rather lack thereof. 

Q

PS At least every Brit now knows wat Euratom (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/10/what-is-euratom-and-why-does-it-matter) is, why it is such a good idea and what happens when you leave it....
The whole Brexit will be a "crash" course (pun intended) in "what is the point of being a member of the European Union".
Like often in life you only truly realise what you had when it is gone.....
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on July 19, 2017, 03:48:41 PM
Quote from: Que on July 18, 2017, 10:11:31 PM
Or without a plan...other than just get out...

I think the delusion that the UK just can walk away, without any serious consequences for the economy, policies in several areas as well as the relations with other countries is at the root of the UK government's "strategy" or rather lack thereof. 

Q

PS At least every Brit now knows wat Euratom (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/10/what-is-euratom-and-why-does-it-matter) is, why it is such a good idea and what happens when you leave it....
The whole Brexit will be a "crash" course (pun intended) in "what is the point of being a member of the European Union".
Like often in life you only truly realise what you had when it is gone.....

The problem is that even if Brexit does go pear-shaped - and I agree it's looking more inevitable by the day - it doesn't necessarily follow that the Brexiteers will get the blame. Their friends in the press will be only too happy to push the narrative that it's all the fault of the EU for not letting us have our cake and eat it, treacherous remoaners/saboteurs/enemies of the people for "talking down the country" and "thwarting the will of the people", the "liberal metropolitan elite", the SNP for undermining Brexit by seeking indyref2, etc.. They will blame everyone but themselves. Sadly, it might well work.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 19, 2017, 09:59:41 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on July 19, 2017, 03:48:41 PM
The problem is that even if Brexit does go pear-shaped - and I agree it's looking more inevitable by the day - it doesn't necessarily follow that the Brexiteers will get the blame. Their friends in the press will be only too happy to push the narrative that it's all the fault of the EU for not letting us have our cake and eat it, treacherous remoaners/saboteurs/enemies of the people for "talking down the country" and "thwarting the will of the people", the "liberal metropolitan elite", the SNP for undermining Brexit by seeking indyref2, etc.. They will blame everyone but themselves. Sadly, it might well work.

Agreed, the EU and "saboteurs" will get the blame...

Which I find a quite worrisome prospect for the UK as a society, for its political stability and unity (Scotland, NI) and its relations with the rest of Europe.

The impact of that "fall out" might be stronger and longer lasting than the exit from the EU in itself.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on July 20, 2017, 01:14:38 AM
Quote from: Que on July 19, 2017, 09:59:41 PM

The impact of that "fall out" might be stronger and longer lasting than the exit from the EU in itself.
Q

The sooner the civil war starts the better. Frankly I'm utterly fed up with the ignorant deluded bollocks that comes out of the mouths of brexiteers (or as I like to call them, fucking idiots).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Crudblud on July 20, 2017, 01:30:07 AM
I'm just tired of the bullheaded defiance on the one side and the smirking condescension on the other. Sore winners, sore losers, two troops of monkeys, allegiances pledged to opposing flags, flinging their own excrement at each other. It's pathetic.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on July 20, 2017, 02:26:03 AM
Quote from: Crudblud on July 20, 2017, 01:30:07 AM
I'm just tired of the bullheaded defiance on the one side and the smirking condescension on the other. Sore winners, sore losers, two troops of monkeys, allegiances pledged to opposing flags, flinging their own excrement at each other. It's pathetic.

When you take together all the truly informed opinion regarding what Brexit will result in, you can sum it up as "bad for the country." That that is what we are on course for is bound to anger a lot of people. I'm not a massive fan of the EU, but to be driven to this state of affairs, because Cameron thought he could fix his party, because bigots want it to be 1950 again, because May wants to keep her job, is not something to just say "tut, tut" about.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on July 20, 2017, 02:32:21 AM
Quote from: nodogen on July 20, 2017, 02:26:03 AM
When you take together all the truly informed opinion regarding what Brexit will result in, you can sum it up as "bad for the country." That that is what we are on course for is bound to anger a lot of people. I'm not a massive fan of the EU, but to be driven to this state of affairs, because Cameron thought he could fix his party, because bigots want it to be 1950 again, because May wants to keep her job, is not something to just say "tut, tut" about.

Yep. It feels like being sat in the back of a car that's hurtling towards a cliff edge, with any attempt to question the wisdom of it being met with cries of "How dare you! This is what the driver wants!".
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Crudblud on July 20, 2017, 03:31:34 AM
Quote from: nodogen on July 20, 2017, 02:26:03 AM
When you take together all the truly informed opinion regarding what Brexit will result in, you can sum it up as "bad for the country." That that is what we are on course for is bound to anger a lot of people. I'm not a massive fan of the EU, but to be driven to this state of affairs, because Cameron thought he could fix his party, because bigots want it to be 1950 again, because May wants to keep her job, is not something to just say "tut, tut" about.

Cameron should never have called the referendum in the first place, but he did, and now we're in the shit. His hubris, May's putting career before country, these are not to be merely disapproved of, I agree. But I am not talking about that. What I am talking about is the unnecessarily antagonistic attitudes people on both sides have brought to the situation. The holier-than-thou remainers and the "I'll shoot myself just to spite you" leavers are engaging in an ugly and stupid manner with issues that should be dealt with more seriously, respectfully, decorously. You can say that it doesn't matter, but it is clear to me that tone was a deciding factor in the referendum, and it also spells trouble for the exit negotiations, as well as the stability of our society in future.

Maybe you think I'm daft for being concerned about this, that's okay, I'm used to being looked at funny for taking the positions I do, but I believe that it is highly important to be courteous and understanding when faced with a situation that has such serious implications for the future of our country. Be angry, yes, but channel that anger into something productive, insults and bickering will not help us weather this storm.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Contemporaryclassical on July 20, 2017, 03:48:40 AM
I usually stay away from political discussion but to say the least, I'm not pleased  >:(
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on July 20, 2017, 06:36:20 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on July 19, 2017, 03:48:41 PM
The problem is that even if Brexit does go pear-shaped - and I agree it's looking more inevitable by the day - it doesn't necessarily follow that the Brexiteers will get the blame. Their friends in the press will be only too happy to push the narrative that it's all the fault of the EU for not letting us have our cake and eat it, treacherous remoaners/saboteurs/enemies of the people for "talking down the country" and "thwarting the will of the people", the "liberal metropolitan elite", the SNP for undermining Brexit by seeking indyref2, etc.. They will blame everyone but themselves. Sadly, it might well work.

It's started already, from reading the comments on the BBC news website. Those conniving bureaucrats at the EU say that the UK apparently can't have its cake and eat it. Reality can be so obstructive.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: kishnevi on July 20, 2017, 08:33:25 AM
Quote from: Crudblud on July 20, 2017, 01:30:07 AM
I'm just tired of the bullheaded defiance on the one side and the smirking condescension on the other. Sore winners, sore losers, two troops of monkeys, allegiances pledged to opposing flags, flinging their own excrement at each other. It's pathetic.

That could well describe US politics now....
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 21, 2017, 11:22:52 PM
A rather harsh perspective from the former colonies:

Brexit a farce worthy of Fawlty Towers episode (http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/679145/Fawlty-Tower-Monty-Python-John-Cleese-Brexit-news-EU-referendum-twitter)

QuoteWhat has resulted is the long-awaited 13th episode of Fawlty Towers. Basil Fawlty, you will recall, aspired to operate his run-down B&B as a grand hotel but without tone-lowering undesirables, especially foreigners. German guests, in particular.

"Don't mention the war," sniggers Louise.

In this 13th excruciating episode, "the Major" with his tipsy and dipsy squaring up to foreigners of all kinds, is brilliantly recast as Boris Johnson, but I have to say that Margaret Thatcher would make a much better Sybil than Theresa May.

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/images/ic/480x270/p02bpx8m.jpg)

Speaking of John Cleese...  8)

Fawlty Towers star John Cleese backs Brexit - and suggested HANGING Jean-Claude Juncker (http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/679145/Fawlty-Tower-Monty-Python-John-Cleese-Brexit-news-EU-referendum-twitter)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on July 21, 2017, 11:59:23 PM
Quote from: Que on July 21, 2017, 11:22:52 PM


Speaking of John Cleese...  8)

Fawlty Towers star John Cleese backs Brexit - and suggested HANGING Jean-Claude Juncker (http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/679145/Fawlty-Tower-Monty-Python-John-Cleese-Brexit-news-EU-referendum-twitter)

Q

Agghh now you've made me look at the daily express!!!!

Wonder if he's still so keen? And was he trying to change the LibDem position on capital punishment? 😝
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 22, 2017, 12:24:50 AM
Quote from: nodogen on July 21, 2017, 11:59:23 PM
Agghh now you've made me look at the daily express!!!!

Wonder if he's still so keen? And was he trying to change the LibDem position on capital punishment? 😝

So truly sorry for that.... ::) It was soo over the top that I couldn't resist..  ;)

But I can understand you now have the urge to rinse your eyes out with soap.... ???

British tabloids and their role in Brexit is a topic in itself....

Never seen so much stupidity and bigotry presented as "news" and "informed opinion".

And their position in this is fiercely nationalistic & anti-EU.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on July 22, 2017, 01:08:57 AM
Quote from: Que on July 22, 2017, 12:24:50 AM

British tabloids....

Never seen so much stupidity and bigotry presented as "news" and "informed opinion".

Q

Hopefully, they have become their own echo chamber with regard to the public at large. The continued influence over the tories is another matter though.

The satirical magazine Private Eye brought together pre- and post-General Election comments from said tabloids. The 180 degree switch was breathtaking: before the election May had made a "brilliant decision" in calling the election; immediately after, the same papers were declaring what an "appalling mistake" she had made...

They deserve each other.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on July 27, 2017, 01:06:59 PM
Update:

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/c2190e943e4542cbc78162294c45f94a27e94a94/0_0_650_444/master/650.jpg?w=300&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=8eebb43df30d051074f5c028452930d3)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 30, 2017, 12:37:48 AM
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/611ba099aae6b401876561fb677d9a095d54ca78/0_0_4837_2652/master/4837.jpg?w=940&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=8e709cb83d1b78e7414fc503109ef07d)

The UK seems to be steering no longer towards the iceberg, but around it for a "transitional period"

The question is: what kind?  ::)
Hammond seems to suggest it will be an "off the shelf" option, presumably bring a continued participation of the customs union and the internal market.
How this is to be achieved is another question. Theoretically (associated) membership of EFTA/EEA  is possible with a separate treaty for a customs union  (whivh is not included in the EEA-treaty betwen EFTA and the EU).

But the devil is in the detail. As soon as Britain wants to diverge from preexisting "off the shelf" agreements, things wil get murky and things can still go horribly wrong.

My guess is Britain will try to hammer out special arrangements but will be caught up by time,  resulting in a last- minute ditch for the present status quo on economical cooperation.  Mind you - this will still leave plenty of problems to deal with: no Erasmus programme, no Euratom , etc.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on July 30, 2017, 02:59:50 AM
The transitional period is pure BS as it requires an approval from the 27 members states and this would take a long time.  On the other hand, requesting an extension to the 2 y negotiations period is easy: all you have to do is ask.  If some agrement on the exit settlment is reached, the likelyhood that this would be agreed upon is high.

Why go for the complicated when there is an easy path ?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on July 30, 2017, 03:04:55 AM
Quote from: Que on July 21, 2017, 11:22:52 PM
[...]
Speaking of John Cleese...  8)

Fawlty Towers star John Cleese backs Brexit - and suggested HANGING Jean-Claude Juncker (http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/679145/Fawlty-Tower-Monty-Python-John-Cleese-Brexit-news-EU-referendum-twitter)

Q

Yeah, Cleese already was a solid pro-Brexit bloke during the referendum days, as was another so-called/so-thought lefty, Johnny Rotten, front singer of the Sex Pistols. Well, who knows, maybe, finally, Johnny will get his 'Anarchy in the UK'.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 31, 2017, 09:50:06 AM
No 10 contradicts Hammond over 'off-the-shelf' Brexit transition deal (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/31/no-10-rejects-off-the-shelf-transitional-deal-for-brexit)


Doesn't look good....at al..This way, the UK is going to end up empty handed.... ::)

NO deal is better than a bad ANY deal?  ???

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on July 31, 2017, 04:42:30 PM
I agree with you Que.  It looks that the only way the worst can be avoided is removing Theresa May from office.  And if it happens, everything will look like a big waste.

Cameron+May: a real losing proposition
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 01, 2017, 11:16:41 PM
Quote from: Spineur on July 31, 2017, 04:42:30 PM
I agree with you Que.  It looks that the only way the worst can be avoided is removing Theresa May from office.  And if it happens, everything will look like a big waste.


Get ready for the big waste; the tories have seen how toxic May is for their electoral chances. She's kept in the job till they pull the trigger.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40630242 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40630242)

(Scroll down to see what happened to her likeability in the short time she was (minimally) exposed to the electorate).




Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 03, 2017, 02:56:19 PM
Interesting article by the professor of government at King's College, London.
Dare one hope?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/03/second-brexit-referendum-case-getting-stronger-political-deadlock-life-raft (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/03/second-brexit-referendum-case-getting-stronger-political-deadlock-life-raft)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 03, 2017, 04:36:23 PM
Quote from: nodogen on August 03, 2017, 02:56:19 PM
Interesting article by the professor of government at King's College, London.
Dare one hope?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/03/second-brexit-referendum-case-getting-stronger-political-deadlock-life-raft (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/03/second-brexit-referendum-case-getting-stronger-political-deadlock-life-raft)

The only way I can see the final Brexit deal (assuming there is one) going through without another referendum is if it's as good a deal as the Brexiteers are claiming it will be. The chances of that would appear to be somewhere between zero and bugger all and I can't see a bad deal being allowed to simply go through without the public getting a vote on it. It wouldn't necessarily have to be a referendum, it might be a general election, but either way the pressure for a public vote will surely become overwhelming.

The Brexiteers' commitment to "letting the people have their say" was, it would seem, a one-shot deal. Hopefully that stance will prove to be unsustainable. If Brexit is going to be the roaring success that they say it is, they would surely have no problem winning another vote. Given the monumental significance of the deal, whatever form it takes, it would be an act of staggering arrogance to try to force it on the country without a vote, though it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they try to do just that.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on August 03, 2017, 11:08:24 PM
The main question is not what the British voters will hold of it, but whether the other 27 member states will accept anything else but Brexit. My guess is that they won't.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 03, 2017, 11:40:18 PM
Theresa May should never have signed Article 50 when she did. It was all about asserting her 'authority' and now she has none.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 03, 2017, 11:59:48 PM
Quote from: Christo on August 03, 2017, 11:08:24 PM
The main question is not what the British voters will hold of it, but whether the other 27 member states will accept anything else but Brexit. My guess is that they won't.

I'm afraid so too..... ::)

Unless the UK changes its mind, in which case an extended exit period could be used to negotiate the terms of the UK's renewed membership, prospects look very gloomy....

Not because the EU doesn't want to make a deal, but because the UK's government has no exit strategy other than unrealistic expectations about ending its cooperation in its most successful political and economic alliance ever, but still reap its full benefits.

May's famous "red lines" make any other option than a hard Brexit impossible, no matter how much good will there is from the other side...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on August 13, 2017, 02:51:00 AM
If I would be a European negotiator on the Brexit team, my patience would be running low

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-idUKKBN1AS0XP (http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-idUKKBN1AS0XP)

This speech of Esteban Gonzales Pons, European deputy, reflects my feeling at the moment

https://www.youtube.com/v/dhiMNCyXcFg
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 13, 2017, 03:55:47 AM
Hear, hear..... :)

Great speech BTW...

Europa and its democratic values are under siege from outside and inside forces....

While the British reenact Dunkirk..... ::) But it's not going to save them this time around....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 13, 2017, 08:31:15 AM
Quote from: Que on August 13, 2017, 03:55:47 AM

While the British reenact Dunkirk..... ::) But it's not going to save them this time around....

Q

Yes, it is very sad. For me, the only good thing about this stupidity is the whole house of cards has been built by the tories so hopefully it is them that will be buried when it collapses.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 13, 2017, 10:10:50 PM
Great relief was caused by the announcement (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/13/hammond-and-fox-brexit-transition-would-not-be-way-to-remain) that hard & soft liners within the UK government agreed on a common Brexit strategy!!  :)

But on a closer look, it doesn't look like much....

One thing seems clear: the soft liners lead by Chancellor Hammond are loosing the battle.... ::)
After Hammond's idea of a continued participation of some sorts of the internal market (EEA) during a lengthy transition period was shot down, now there is "agreement" on the immediate discontinuation of the customs union. And the transition prriod will be short, like 2-3 years.

So, what will actually be the state of things during this transition period?

"That is why we believe a time-limited interim period will be important to further our national interest and give business greater certainty – but it cannot be indefinite; it cannot be a back door to staying in the EU."

"We are also clear that during this period our borders must continue to operate smoothly; goods bought on the internet must still cross borders; businesses must still be able to supply their customers across the EU and our innovative, world-leading companies must be able to hire the talent they need, including from within the EU."


I have no idea what this means... "smoothly operating borders" without maintaining temporarily the status quo on the movement of goods & services?  ???

Seems like another of these cakes....the ones you can have & eat....


Meanwhile Hammond is under fire (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/13/philip-hammond-hard-brexit-tories-uk-customs-union) of giving in too much to the hard liners...

I think he basically lost the battle for a soft transitional Brexit.
This might lead to consequences within the ranks of the Tories: pro Europeans might decide to leave the boat...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 13, 2017, 10:53:03 PM
Q,
It's a cold day in hell when a tory jumps ship 😉
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 14, 2017, 12:36:14 PM
Quote from: nodogen on August 13, 2017, 10:53:03 PM
Q,
It's a cold day in hell when a tory jumps ship 😉

Ah, you might be right....  It would mean the end of their party.


Oh dear....

Philip Hammond and Liam Fox's Brexit transition plan is a pipe dream (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/14/eu-brexit-transition-period-liam-fox-philip-hammond)

Now what... ? ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on August 14, 2017, 12:52:11 PM
As I have said previously a special transition regime has to be approved by every one of the 27 members states, while requesting an extention of the 24 months negotiation period to say 36 months does not.

So yes this vague and vaporous transitional period is a pipe dream.

Their article shows how unprepared they still are, in spite of  their eager "we are ready" statement.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 14, 2017, 02:32:55 PM
Quote from: Que on August 14, 2017, 12:36:14 PM
Ah, you might be right....  It would mean the end of their party.

Q

Call me biased and ignorant, but it seems to me that (in the UK at least) the left is generally driven by fairly fixed ideas. As the popularity of these ideas wax and wane so does the popularity of the party/s of the left. On the other hand, the right seems quite simply (ruthlessly,efficiently) to be driven by the desire to be in power. Ideas are of secondary importance and so can be ditched, recalled, reshaped, created at will, depending on what the drive for power requires. As Orwell said, power is not a means, it is an end. Because of this hollowness at the heart of the right wing there is less need or likelihood for tories to "jump ship."
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 14, 2017, 04:00:13 PM
Quote from: nodogen on August 14, 2017, 02:32:55 PM
Call me biased and ignorant, but it seems to me that (in the UK at least) the left is generally driven by fairly fixed ideas. As the popularity of these ideas wax and wane so does the popularity of the party/s of the left. On the other hand, the right seems quite simply (ruthlessly,efficiently) to be driven by the desire to be in power. Ideas are of secondary importance and so can be ditched, recalled, reshaped, created at will, depending on what the drive for power requires. As Orwell said, power is not a means, it is an end. Because of this hollowness at the heart of the right wing there is less need or likelihood for tories to "jump ship."

There is a lot of truth in this, but the one issue to which it does not seem to apply is Europe. The anti-EU headbangers ensured that their party got slaughtered at the 1997 election but they didn't care. It's an obsession for them, and Brexit is their ideological G-spot.

It's looking more and more possible that we really could crash out with no deal at all. The EU has made it abundantly clear that we aren't going to get a "have our cake and eat it" deal. Whatever we get is going to be significantly worse than what we have now, and is therefore going to do a lot of damage. Labour won't want to support a deal that inflicts major damage on the country, so they'd almost certainly have to vote against it (I suppose in theory they could abstain, but that would hardly be a credible stance on an issue of such monumental importance). Even a bad deal will only happen if we agree to pay the "divorce bill", or at least a very substantial portion of it - but that will be too much for the Brexit zealots to stomach, so they would probably vote against it as well, albeit for very different reasons. In which case it won't get through the Commons. And obviously the sort of deal that would be acceptable to the hardcore Brexiteers would be completely unacceptable to Labour, the other opposition parties and more moderate Tory MPs (to say nothing of the EU). It's looking really grim.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 15, 2017, 05:09:29 AM
Ideological g-spot.  :D :D :D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 15, 2017, 05:16:47 AM
Grim indeed, Mr Minnow.

On a happier note, when I catch sight of the front pages of the Mail and the Express there seems to be an ever mounting hysteria. I think eventually the rage will reach such a pitch it will cause the actual copies of the papers to spontaneously combust.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 15, 2017, 05:20:59 AM
Mr Minnow,
Is your avatar Mr Austerity himself, George O. ????

I had an Osborne avatar once, but soon found it too unsettling. So I changed it back to Enoch Powell.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 15, 2017, 10:08:08 AM
Quote from: nodogen on August 15, 2017, 05:20:59 AM
Mr Minnow,
Is your avatar Mr Austerity himself, George O. ????

I had an Osborne avatar once, but soon found it too unsettling. So I changed it back to Enoch Powell.

https://www.youtube.com/v/A5qrlOOPwZ8
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 15, 2017, 01:15:02 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on August 15, 2017, 10:08:08 AM
https://www.youtube.com/v/A5qrlOOPwZ8

I'd have to say: what the fuck?


🙀
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 15, 2017, 03:27:42 PM
Quote from: nodogen on August 15, 2017, 01:15:02 PM
I'd have to say: what the fuck?


🙀

Seaside Treats was my introduction to Cardiacs and my initial reaction was similar to yours - in fact it's the usual reaction for anyone unfamiliar with them. After the five minutes of The Consultant's Flower Garden finished and it said "the end" I was wondering what I'd just seen. Then my friend said "it's not the end, there are three songs to follow and it gets even stranger." He was right!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 15, 2017, 11:02:25 PM
I'll give em a whizz.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 16, 2017, 05:19:32 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/16/uk-government-border-proposals-ireland-brexit-position-paper (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/16/uk-government-border-proposals-ireland-brexit-position-paper)

Two bits of this stood out for me:

QuoteBut to understand how this seems to the Irish government and to most people on the island, imagine you are in a decent job. It is reasonably paid, apparently secure and the working environment is quite amicable. Your neighbour, who you like but do not quite trust (there's a bit of history there) comes to you with a proposition. She's establishing an extremely risky start-up venture with a high probability of catastrophic failure. Will you join her? Well, you ask, what are the possible rewards? Ah, she says, if – against the odds – everything goes splendidly, you'll get the same pay and conditions you have now.

This is, in essence, what the British government is offering Ireland. If everything goes fantastically well, you'll end up with, um, the status quo.

QuoteThis is why the position paper, for all its nice words, feels less like a serious attempt to find solutions and more like an early move in the blame game that will unfold when those solutions have not been found. It claims the moral high ground: Britain is utterly opposed to a hard border. Thus, when the EU responds by saying that a hard border follows inevitably from a decision to leave the customs union, it will be the EU's fault.

The disconnection from reality of the UK government's approach - I was about to say "strategy" but I think that would be giving them far too much credit - is such that it is indeed starting to appear as though they've looked into the abyss, realised what a colossal shitshow Brexit will be, and concluded that the only way they can save their necks is by adopting positions that they know the EU can't possibly agree to. And then blame the EU for not agreeing to those things. At which point the narrative will no doubt be that the EU is out to punish us.

Maybe the hardcore Brexiteers like Fox still believe their own guff about the sunlit uplands, but the less ideologically committed must have started to realise that Brexit is like blowing your own feet off with a shotgun as you're about to start running a marathon.




Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on August 17, 2017, 05:12:09 AM
Quote from: Spineur on August 13, 2017, 02:51:00 AM
If I would be a European negotiator on the Brexit team, my patience would be running low

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-idUKKBN1AS0XP (http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-idUKKBN1AS0XP)

This speech of Esteban Gonzales Pons, European deputy, reflects my feeling at the moment

https://www.youtube.com/v/dhiMNCyXcFg

A really great speech, and one that absolutely reflects how Europe is seen from this side of the pond - well, the northern part of the pond, I should say  :).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 17, 2017, 07:20:18 AM
Quote from: André on August 17, 2017, 05:12:09 AM
A really great speech, and one that absolutely reflects how Europe is seen from this side of the pond - well, the northern part of the pond, I should say  :).
Yes - a truly great speech. Thank you for posting it.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 17, 2017, 08:33:10 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/16/uk-government-border-proposals-ireland-brexit-position-paper
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 28, 2017, 12:30:28 AM
If the UK really does have to leave the EU, Labour seem to be overtly becoming the "soft Brexit" option. Politically this is a good move - in terms of popularity within the Party and the country at large. Also it puts great pressure on the Tories, which is always a good thing. 😼
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 28, 2017, 03:50:03 PM
Quote from: nodogen on August 28, 2017, 12:30:28 AM
If the UK really does have to leave the EU, Labour seem to be overtly becoming the "soft Brexit" option. Politically this is a good move - in terms of popularity within the Party and the country at large. Also it puts great pressure on the Tories, which is always a good thing. 😼

The Tories seem to be feeling the pressure already. Headline in tomorrow's Torygraph: "Britain's fury at 'unhelpful' Barnier". Or, to put it another way, Barnier is sticking to the negotiating brief he's been given. You know, the one that he can't change - and couldn't change even if he wanted to - and which can only be changed by the other 27.

It seems they may be finally starting to realise that the Brexiteers were engaged in nothing more than empty bluster when they assured us that when push comes to shove the EU will back down. We've already had Boris concede we'll have to pay a divorce bill, which is a rather different attitude to his previous comment that the EU can "go whistle". Still, at least we're represented in these negotiations by a team of true statesmen with a well thought-out strategy - we could easily have been stuck with a bunch of delusional f**kwits who don't know their collective arse from their elbow. Just imagine!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: John Copeland on August 29, 2017, 02:26:47 PM
Brexit Negotiations?

LOL
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 29, 2017, 02:36:33 PM
Quote from: Est.1965 on August 29, 2017, 02:26:47 PM
Brexit Negotiations?

LOL

What's the take on all this in Scotland? How do you see it panning out (within Scottish politics)?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 29, 2017, 03:01:24 PM
Scottish independence would surely be a foregone conclusion if the Tory Brexiteers try to use Brexit as a way of turning Britain into Tax Haven-on-Thames. It's an ideological dream which they might well try to push as "our only hope" if the negotiations with the EU go tits up and we crash out with no deal. I can't see the Scots wanting to be chained to a country cast in the image of hard right nutters like Rees Mogg, Patel and Raab. They would surely vote for independence in droves. If they did I wouldn't blame them, in fact Scotland might then start to look very attractive indeed to quite a few people south of the border.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: John Copeland on August 29, 2017, 03:34:52 PM
Quote from: nodogen on August 29, 2017, 02:36:33 PM
What's the take on all this in Scotland? How do you see it panning out (within Scottish politics)?

In 2014, a front page tri-party pledge (Clegg, Milliband and Cameron) for us to vote against Independence included an assurance that Scotland would always remain a part of Europe.  Now only three years later, none of these people are in power, the 'assurance' is in tatters, and we are being pulled out of Europe against our own sovereign wishes.  Nobody wants to hear the cry of 'Independence' yet again.  Even I am fed up with it!  But Brexit is such a constitutional spit in the face for Scotland that IndyRef 2 will be set before or by 2021.  Er...I think I see it panning out that way.   :-X

Quote from: Mr. Minnow on August 29, 2017, 03:01:24 PM
Scottish independence would surely be a foregone conclusion if the Tory Brexiteers try to use Brexit as a way of turning Britain into Tax Haven-on-Thames....If they did I wouldn't blame them, in fact Scotland might then start to look very attractive indeed to quite a few people south of the border.

I wanted to comment about the two sentences above, which is why they are isolated in one quote.  Unfortunately, simply editing out intervening sentences has led to the two orphaned sentences meaning something entirely different to what you meant...so I can no longer comment.   :'( :laugh:

***...runs away screaming in Political confusion...***
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 29, 2017, 04:10:08 PM
Quote from: Est.1965 on August 29, 2017, 03:34:52 PM
In 2014, a front page tri-party pledge (Clegg, Milliband and Cameron) for us to vote against Independence included an assurance that Scotland would always remain a part of Europe.  Now only three years later, none of these people are in power, the 'assurance' is in tatters, and we are being pulled out of Europe against our own sovereign wishes.  Nobody wants to hear the cry of 'Independence' yet again.  Even I am fed up with it!  But Brexit is such a constitutional spit in the face for Scotland that IndyRef 2 will be set before or by 2021.  Er...I think I see it panning out that way.   :-X

Just how bad the final deal is will surely be the deciding factor as far as independence is concerned. If we get a deal which is pretty bad but not an outright catastrophe then maybe a majority of Scots will decide to stick with the UK as "better the devil you know". But if Brexit turns out to be a train wreck - a very distinct possibility - then independence might actually look like the less risky option. Still a leap in the dark with pitfalls aplenty of course, but that may not seem so bad if the alternative looks certain to be a disaster. And if that's the case, I doubt the Tories could rely on Colonel Davidson to spin them out of that particular hole. She may be effective when on the offensive, but when she has to defend something controversial she really struggles. Though if the Brexit deal is that bad I'm not sure even she would want to try to defend it.

QuoteI wanted to comment about the two sentences above, which is why they are isolated in one quote.  Unfortunately, simply editing out intervening sentences has led to the two orphaned sentences meaning something entirely different to what you meant...so I can no longer comment.   :'( :laugh:

***...runs away screaming in Political confusion...***

Believe me, if I'd meant what those two sentences mean when juxtaposed in isolation I'd be seriously concerned about the state of my sanity!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 29, 2017, 09:01:26 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on August 29, 2017, 03:01:24 PM
Scottish independence would surely be a foregone conclusion if the Tory Brexiteers try to use Brexit as a way of turning Britain into Tax Haven-on-Thames. It's an ideological dream which they might well try to push as "our only hope" if the negotiations with the EU go tits up and we crash out with no deal. I can't see the Scots wanting to be chained to a country cast in the image of hard right nutters like Rees Mogg, Patel and Raab. They would surely vote for independence in droves. If they did I wouldn't blame them, in fact Scotland might then start to look very attractive indeed to quite a few people south of the border.

Never mind Ireland, Scotland will need a "hard" border to minimise the influx of refugees from England. I'm already packing.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on September 01, 2017, 03:53:50 AM
These negotiations seem to reflect the UK and European characters very well.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 13, 2017, 09:49:19 PM
Reality of being a medium size country in a global economy is sinking in.....

http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-taking-back-control-united-kingdom-giving-up-control/



PS No idea why Juncker is whining about Brexit - with the Brits still aboard the EU could absolutely forget all about its new agenda for further integration, like a common defense, tax harmonisations, a EU monetary fund, etc., etc.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on September 14, 2017, 06:58:10 AM
And this, from the Guardian (but wriiten by a non-Brit):

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/13/brexit-britain-eu-european?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_todayworld (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/13/brexit-britain-eu-european?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_todayworld)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on September 14, 2017, 08:06:25 AM
Quote from: Que on September 13, 2017, 09:49:19 PM
Reality of being a medium size country in a global economy is sinking in.....

Unfortunately, reality is never going to sink into the brexiteers.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 15, 2017, 03:54:48 PM
Remember how within 24 hours of the referendum the Brexiteers started denying that they'd ever claimed Brexit would give us another £350million per week that we could spend on the NHS? Well.....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/15/boris-johnson-we-will-claw-back-350m-a-week-post-brexit-after-all (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/15/boris-johnson-we-will-claw-back-350m-a-week-post-brexit-after-all)

All those denials for nothing. Oh dear!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on September 15, 2017, 11:26:08 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on September 15, 2017, 03:54:48 PM
Remember how within 24 hours of the referendum the Brexiteers started denying that they'd ever claimed Brexit would give us another £350million per week that we could spend on the NHS? Well.....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/15/boris-johnson-we-will-claw-back-350m-a-week-post-brexit-after-all (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/15/boris-johnson-we-will-claw-back-350m-a-week-post-brexit-after-all)

All those denials for nothing. Oh dear!

You wouldn't trust him to tell you the time.

Why is he still in a job? Any job.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 16, 2017, 12:48:53 AM
No matter how you look at it, the best solution has been staring us in the face from day one:

The UK stays in the internal market and customs union for at least a transitional period for the remaining duration of the current EU budget, which would mean about two years I believe. It would avoid a cliff edge Brexit and resolve the EU's budgetary problem.

It could be arranged by a customs treaty and the UK either joining EFTA, or joining the treaty on the European Economic Area on its own (which requires a treaty change), or by way of seperate treaties replicating it.

Since these are "off the shelf" options, the whole arrangement could be fixed fairly smoothly and quickly.

The reason why the UK seems reluctant to acknowledge the obvious, is IMO the fear that it would eventually become a permanent situation for domestic political reasons.
A new UK government could easily delay, postpone or rule out any full withdrawal from European economic cooperation.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on September 16, 2017, 12:57:44 AM
Admittedly a more radical solution (suggested by my partner I hasten to add) is to deport all those who voted for this mess. (With Farage in the first batch).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 16, 2017, 01:27:03 AM
Quote from: nodogen on September 16, 2017, 12:57:44 AM
Admittedly a more radical solution (suggested by my partner I hasten to add) is to deport all those who voted for this mess. (With Farage in the first batch).

Another option would be to move to Scotland before it secedes....  ;)


Anyway, damage control by staying in the internal market seems to best option at the moment.

Eurosceptic Neo-Marxist Corbyn doesn't want that either, but might be pursuaded by the rest of his party.

And before it is all over, I wouldn't rule out a major political/constitutional crisis either.... All the necessary ingredients are there: an outdated political system,  unequal distribution of political power and of wealth, major domestic tensions and major external pressures.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on September 16, 2017, 03:57:42 AM
Boris Johnson reignite leadership speculations with Brexit plan (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-johnson/uks-boris-johnson-reignites-leadership-speculation-with-brexit-plans-idUSKCN1BR0AU)

Yes things could get worse if Boris Johnson replaced Theresa May.  This guy has not the faintest clue how an economy works.  Still thinking that its a zero sum game with a Malthusian view of the UK vs the rest of the world.  This guy needs to go back to school and learn a thing or two.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 16, 2017, 07:02:32 AM
Quote from: Spineur on September 16, 2017, 03:57:42 AM
Boris Johnson reignite leadership speculations with Brexit plan (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-johnson/uks-boris-johnson-reignites-leadership-speculation-with-brexit-plans-idUSKCN1BR0AU)

Yes things could get worse if Boris Johnson replaced Theresa May.  This guy has not the faintest clue how an economy works.  Still thinking that its a zero sum game with a Malthusian view of the UK vs the rest of the world.  This guy needs to go back to school and learn a thing or two.

From the article:

QuoteOnce out of the European Union, the country should borrow to invest in infrastructure

How odd - when Corbyn proposes borrowing to invest he's accused of thinking there's a magic money tree and the Tory press assures us that such plans would lead to economic collapse. But when it comes from good old Boris it's apparently fine. It's almost as if there were some kind of double standard at work.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 16, 2017, 07:07:35 AM
Quote from: nodogen on September 16, 2017, 12:57:44 AM
Admittedly a more radical solution (suggested by my partner I hasten to add) is to deport all those who voted for this mess. (With Farage in the first batch).

For good measure perhaps they should be deported to Brussels? Seems perfectly reasonable to me!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on September 16, 2017, 07:25:06 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on September 16, 2017, 07:07:35 AM
For good measure perhaps they should be deported to Brussels? Seems perfectly reasonable to me!

That would be just too modern for them AND full of foreigners. I was thinking more of St Kilda.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 16, 2017, 08:16:42 AM
Quote from: nodogen on September 16, 2017, 07:25:06 AM
That would be just too modern for them AND full of foreigners. I was thinking more of St Kilda.

It would be Royston Vasey Mk II. With a Local Shop and everything.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on September 16, 2017, 02:11:50 PM
Frankie Boyle piece on Brexit (and Trump n Clinton)

https://youtu.be/VzNOy7v_4wA

NSFW 🤐
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 18, 2017, 04:51:37 PM
Worth a read:

https://reaction.life/boris-memorandum-scrappy-juvenile-incoherent/ (https://reaction.life/boris-memorandum-scrappy-juvenile-incoherent/)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on September 22, 2017, 12:00:55 AM
Quote from: Que on September 21, 2017, 11:23:45 PM
An interesting read in the Financial Times:

Brexit is Britain's gift to the world (https://www.ft.com/content/a6b1f948-9d8e-11e7-9a86-4d5a475ba4c5)

Q

I'll take your word for it; the FT has a paywall. 😳
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on September 22, 2017, 07:52:37 AM
Very poor Florence Speech by Theresa May.

no concrete figure for Brexit bill
some imaginary mumbling of a 'better than CETA & EEA' model, void of any real content.

Good luck Britain.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 22, 2017, 10:46:40 AM
Quote from: Spineur on September 22, 2017, 07:52:37 AM
Very poor Florence Speech by Theresa May.

no concrete figure for Brexit bill
some imaginary mumbling of a 'better than CETA & EEA' model, void of any real content.

Good luck Britain.

Some reaction:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/22/theresa-may-florence-speech-brexit-plan (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/22/theresa-may-florence-speech-brexit-plan)

John Redwood's take on it is interesting: apparently we're the ones in a strong position and it's the EU that has no plan. No, really.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on September 22, 2017, 01:39:13 PM

- Quite interesting reactions.

On the financial front, Moodys downgrades the UK debt.....just a few hours after Theresa May speech.  And the city opened the champagne as they understood that Brexit will never happen at the rate things are going.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 07, 2017, 12:06:09 AM
Things are looking increasingly gloomy... From the ft:

QuoteGermany rejects May's Brexit transition hopes. Berlin-led countries insist divorce bill from EU will be resolved first.

Germany and France have dashed British hopes of fast-tracking talks on a two-year post-Brexit transition deal, insisting that the UK's EU divorce bill be resolved first. British officials had hoped that EU leaders would jump-start negotiations at a high-profile Brussels summit in two weeks by approving the opening of talks on a transition period after Britain's exit in 2019, which Theresa May proposed in her Florence address last month. But according to European diplomats, a Germany-led group of EU countries has demanded more clarity on the long-term financial commitments Britain will honour. The UK insists it will only do this once the shape of its future relationship with the EU is clear, including a transition period. Essential stories related to this article Brexit Brexit number crunch: the final bill the EU could accept.

Berlin's tough stance will be of particular concern to London, coming just a week after Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, met Mrs May to discuss Brexit and her Florence speech, which offered to use transition payments to cover an EU budget shortfall of at least €20bn. The setback comes amid further signs that post-Florence hopes of smoother Brexit sailing are beginning to fade. The UK's two main negotiators are battling each other for staff and resources days before the fifth round of Brexit talks begin next week. According to an internal email seen by the Financial Times, Olly Robbins, who left his job as head of the Department for Exiting the EU last month to set up a rival "Europe Unit" in Downing Street, is openly trying to poach his former colleagues from David Davis, the Brexit secretary.

The Berlin roadblock and renewed cabinet infighting comes after the disarray at this week's Conservative party conference, sapping Mrs May of much of the momentum she enjoyed after her well-received address in Italy. The uncompromising positions in Berlin and Paris emerged on Friday as ambassadors from the remaining 27 EU members held their first debate on the union's approach to transition talks, including the option of approving exploratory negotiations at an October summit. Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator, outlined the potential benefits of opening talks on a transition deal at the meeting. He argued that they could create space to resolve the big outstanding issues on a Brexit bill, as well as recognise Britain's recent more accommodative stance. But this option was firmly rejected by a group of countries led by Germany and France, which took a stricter view on the sequence of negotiations, according to several diplomats briefed on the meeting. Germany's resistance suggests that the EU27 will not let up pressure on divorce issues in the coming months, in spite of the Florence overture from Mrs May. One EU ambassador told his colleagues: "We are not here to save the Tory party."

As a gesture to recognise progress, the EU is considering starting an internal "scoping" exercise on a transition deal, where the EU27 would prepare for talks with the UK at a later stage. While an advance of sorts, this falls well short of London's hopes that talks would begin after the summit in October. Some diplomats involved in the discussions speculated that Berlin's tough line may be tactical to raise pressure and lower expectations ahead of a summit where EU leaders would take a more accommodating approach. Mr Barnier argued that the Berlin-backed approach should make the summit of EU leaders in October a "stepping stone" to a potential deal in December, where "sufficient progress" on a Brexit bill is acknowledged and transition talks can begin. If a delayed timetable were adopted at the summit in October it would be a serious blow to British business, which is warning ministers that an end-of-year deal on a transition period is essential to avoid a wave of companies decamping operations to the continent because of uncertainty.

The stalemate comes as Germany's biggest business lobby has warned members to prepare for a "very hard Brexit" because Britain lacks a clear strategy. Mr Barnier's team, meanwhile, has started meeting national customs authorities handling UK trade to make sure that they are preparing for all scenarios, including no deal. The British negotiating team hopes to make progress on the question of citizen's rights in next week's talks but there is not expected to be a new offer on the question of the Brexit bill. "It will be a fairly quiet negotiating round," one British official predicted.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on October 07, 2017, 03:21:14 AM
None of this surprises me. All Cameron's fault for holding the unnecessary referendum in the first place without enfranchising the sixteen and seventeen year olds who will be the ones most affected by Brexit - what a mess!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on October 07, 2017, 03:46:31 AM
You have to admit that the Tory infightings and the pityful performance of T. May make things worse.  The E.U. negociators and the german bussiness community are convinced that the brexit process will end badely and that contingencies need to be ready to face this enventuality.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on October 07, 2017, 03:56:18 AM
Quote from: Spineur on September 16, 2017, 03:57:42 AMThis guy has not the faintest clue ... needs to go back to school and learn a thing or two.
Correct. Though some American guy leads the tough Dumbest Politician Ever competetion, here's another worthy pretender.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on October 07, 2017, 08:28:23 AM
Quote from: Spineur on October 07, 2017, 03:46:31 AM
You have to admit that the Tory infightings and the pityful performance of T. May make things worse.  The E.U. negociators and the german bussiness community are convinced that the brexit process will end badely and that contingencies need to be ready to face this enventuality.
Yes, I do agree.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 07, 2017, 11:40:05 PM
Why it's not too late to step back from the Brexit brink (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/07/why-its-not-too-late-to-step-back-from-brexit)

According to the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, any notification of withdrawal can be revoked before the withdrawal takes effect:

QuoteARTICLE 68 - REVOCATION OF NOTIFICATIONS AND INSTRUMENTS PROVIDED FOR IN ARTICLES 65 AND 67

A notification or instrument provided for in articles 65 or 67 may be revoked at any time before it takes effect.

It's that simple....


The domestic and international political effects however, cannot be undone...


Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on October 08, 2017, 12:06:57 AM
Quote from: Que on October 07, 2017, 11:40:05 PM


According to the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, any notification of withdrawal can be revoked before the withdrawal takes effect:

It's that simple....


The domestic and international political effects however, cannot be undone...


Q
Le renoncement is something which is difficult to accept for anybody, let alone for UK politicians.

Earlier, I thought a U-turn could be possible.  But the more time passes, the harder it gets.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on October 08, 2017, 12:16:33 AM
More and more reports telling of May´s and / or Johnson´s possible replacement within not many weeks.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: mc ukrneal on October 08, 2017, 12:28:28 AM
Quote from: Que on October 07, 2017, 11:40:05 PM
Why it’s not too late to step back from the Brexit brink (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/07/why-its-not-too-late-to-step-back-from-brexit)

According to the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, any notification of withdrawal can be revoked before the withdrawal takes effect:

It's that simple....


The domestic and international political effects however, cannot be undone...


Q
As I understand it, they would revoke it and then resubmit it to start the two year clock ticking again. Apparently, they could do this indefinitely...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 08, 2017, 08:33:03 AM
Quote from: Spineur on October 08, 2017, 12:06:57 AM
Le renoncement is something which is difficult to accept for anybody, let alone for UK politicians.

Earlier, I thought a U-turn could be possible.  But the more time passes, the harder it gets.

You only have to look at the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg comparing the Brexit negotiations to Agincourt to see the mindset of the Brexit true believers. There's no way they would accept revoking article 50. The current Tory infighting would look like a model of sweetness and light compared to the civil war that would follow - they'd tear each other to pieces (though that may be inevitable no matter what kind of Brexit we end up with). And if the recent edition of Question Time from Brexit-supporting Wolverhampton is any guide, it seems leave voters still want Brexit come what may. All the usual delusional bollocks was there: we should just leave and go to WTO terms, the EU is being bitter and trying to punish us, we'll be fine because of all those shiny new trade deals that other countries will be queuing up to do with us, etc..

Maybe their opinion will shift when the effects of Brexit really hit home, but any talk of revoking article 50 now would turbocharge the Brexiteers' narrative of "remoaner saboteurs betraying the will of the people". It looks as though we will have to wait until we've hit the iceberg and the ship has sunk before we have any chance of sanity reasserting itself, and god knows what sort of damage will have been done by then.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on October 08, 2017, 08:54:09 AM
I fear that the only thing that may change some Brexiteers' minds is the reality of a disastrous Brexit. And even then, I wouldn't put it past them to blame everything and everyone else. Whereupon, what happens in the UK, God only knows.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 08, 2017, 02:47:55 PM
Quote from: Turbot nouveaux on October 08, 2017, 08:54:09 AM
I fear that the only thing that may change some Brexiteers' minds is the reality of a disastrous Brexit. And even then, I wouldn't put it past them to blame everything and everyone else. Whereupon, what happens in the UK, God only knows.

Blaming everyone but themselves is exactly what they will do and it will certainly be the narrative of the Brexit-supporting press. There's no way the other 27 could justify to their own electorates giving us a deal that lets us keep the benefits of membership without the responsibilities - even though we're leaving - while the remaining members get no such deal. They also don't want to give us a cushy deal that encourages others to demand something similar, since that would risk the breakup of the entire EU, which the 27 quite rightly regard as the nightmare scenario, both politically and economically. But that won't stop the Brexiteers portraying the lack of such a have-our-cake-and-eat-it deal as the EU trying to punish us for leaving by putting politics before economics.

The other main scapegoat will be remain voters, who will  be blamed for "sabotaging" Brexit by "talking the country down" (a phrase I expect to see pressed into service on a regular basis). There will be other excuses of course - for example, we've already seen criticism of "unpatriotic" broadcasters who have the temerity to ask awkward questions. The one thing you won't hear is an admission that Brexit was a really bloody stupid idea based on fantasy land delusions.



EDIT: right on time, here's ardent Brexiteer Bernard Jenkin:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/08/brexit-treasury-eu-bernard-jenkin (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/08/brexit-treasury-eu-bernard-jenkin)

The first sentence sets the tone:

QuoteThere is no intrinsic reason why Brexit should be difficult or damaging,

Indeed - what could be simpler or more risk-free than Brexit?

Quotebut the EU itself has so far demonstrated it wants to make it so; and it has co-opted the CBI, parts of the City and, it seems, the Treasury to assist

Tin foil hattery at its finest.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 08, 2017, 09:42:27 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on October 08, 2017, 02:47:55 PM

Tin foil hattery at its finest.

Yes, that's a pearl of a statement: Her Majesty's Treasury is in cahoots with the evil EU!  ???  ;)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 09, 2017, 04:21:16 AM
Quote from: Que on October 08, 2017, 09:42:27 PM
Yes, that's a pearl of a statement: Her Majesty's Treasury is in cahoots with the evil EU!  ???  ;)

Q

A pearl of a statement indeed. But this is a cracker as well:

QuoteThe Treasury seems unable to hear any voices except those that reinforce their preconceptions. It seems blind to the facts

Yes, that's a Brexiteer accusing others of only listening to people who reinforce their preconceptions and being blind to the facts. Try not to laugh.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on October 09, 2017, 05:22:29 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on October 09, 2017, 04:21:16 AM
A pearl of a statement indeed. But this is a cracker as well:

Yes, that's a Brexiteer accusing others of only listening to people who reinforce their preconceptions and being blind to the facts. Try not to laugh.


The age-old problem of motes and beams, it seems.

Of course, Mr Jenkin "has form" as they say, having been one of the original "Maastricht rebels" (or b**tards, as John Major might have put it).  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 11, 2017, 03:09:47 PM
I see that at PMQs that loathsome tosser Iain Duncan Smith asked if the government would spend whatever was necessary on Brexit preparations. The man who repeatedly hammered the sick and disabled with benefit cuts is willing to spend whatever it takes on his precious Brexit. Bastard.

Predictably enough, the Theresatron confirmed that yes, the government is willing to spend whatever it takes. If only she'd said "I'm afraid we don't have a magic money tree."
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on November 02, 2017, 02:22:45 PM
Marc Galeotti:
"How Putin could yet save Britain from Brexit ... there is a growing likelihood that later this year or early next we will see solid evidence of financial support for the Brexit camp, too ...likely to be revealed over the course of the several inquiries taking place on the other side of the Atlantic."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/02/putin-save-britain-brexit-russia-eu-referendum?CMP=share_btn_tw

Interesting, but the scenario is probably not that likely (?)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Biffo on November 02, 2017, 02:29:08 PM
Quote from: Turner on November 02, 2017, 02:22:45 PM
Marc Galeotti:
"How Putin could yet save Britain from Brexit ... there is a growing likelihood that later this year or early next we will see solid evidence of financial support for the Brexit camp, too ...likely to be revealed over the course of the several inquiries taking place on the other side of the Atlantic."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/02/putin-save-britain-brexit-russia-eu-referendum?CMP=share_btn_tw

Interesting, but the scenario is probably not that likely (?)

More tendentious nonsense from the EU's official fanzine.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on November 02, 2017, 02:34:46 PM
Quote from: Biffo on November 02, 2017, 02:29:08 PM
More tendentious nonsense from the EU's official fanzine.

Galeotti is very knowledgeable on Russia at least, and the info on that subject is interesting. We´ll see if he is right in this case, regarding the prospects of new, UK-related revelations.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: kishnevi on November 02, 2017, 04:27:54 PM
Quote from: Turner on November 02, 2017, 02:22:45 PM
Marc Galeotti:
"How Putin could yet save Britain from Brexit ... there is a growing likelihood that later this year or early next we will see solid evidence of financial support for the Brexit camp, too ...likely to be revealed over the course of the several inquiries taking place on the other side of the Atlantic."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/02/putin-save-britain-brexit-russia-eu-referendum?CMP=share_btn_tw

Interesting, but the scenario is probably not that likely (?)

As likely to annul Brexit as to de-elect Trump.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 02, 2017, 10:28:05 PM
I can't see Putin's interference lead to an annulment either - who is going to admit that the whole thing was manipulated by Putin?  ::)

Anyway, I don't think anyone can ever prove that his interference was successful, but he did try and got the result he wanted.....

US in the hands of a fool and the UK off the cliff, Putin must be ecstatic....


Considering the way things are going with the Brexit negotiations: the EU might offer an extension of the negotiations, probably on the condition that there is at least agreement on the divorce settlement. Naturally Conservative hardliners will resist the idea of a delay, so there will be more political drama.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on November 06, 2017, 12:17:16 PM
Quote from: Que on November 02, 2017, 10:28:05 PM
US in the hands of a fool and the UK off the cliff, Putin must be ecstatic....

:) Except that he lacks the power to really take advantage of it, having already overplayed his hand with the war against Ukraine - and not being able to deal with the boycott that will eventually lead to the end of his regime.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on November 06, 2017, 02:02:23 PM
Quote from: Biffo on November 02, 2017, 02:29:08 PM
More tendentious nonsense from the EU's official fanzine.

However tendentious Galeotti's opinion piece was, the Graun is very far from being an EU fanzine. ::) It also has a tradition of printing pieces from people holding all sprts of opinions - including at times, people I regard as howling mad right-wingers.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Biffo on November 07, 2017, 01:03:57 AM
I read The Guardian for many years and I am well aware of its character; I still see many of its articles online on a daily basis. Since the EU referendum it has carried fake news about Brexit on a daily basis. This includes speculative items from right-wing think tanks, self-interested businessmen, economists etc - all the kind of people it wouldn't have given the time of day to previously.

Its print circulation is dropping like a stone and it has now sold off its last assets; in future it is to be printed in tabloid format by the Daily Mirror (this may have already happened) - a sensible financial arrangement and I have nothing against the DM. It is still heavily in debt and its popular online version is losing money. Nearly all the printed media is losing circulation but The Guardian is now the smallest selling national daily and can't last much longer in its print form. Perhaps the editor needs to realise that there are many people of a liberal or centre-left persuasion who think the EU is an abomination.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on November 08, 2017, 01:38:53 PM
Things arent getting any better

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-envoys/eu-states-see-britain-failing-to-meet-brexit-divorce-terms-idUKKBN1D8351 (http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-envoys/eu-states-see-britain-failing-to-meet-brexit-divorce-terms-idUKKBN1D8351)

"It's impossible to get any bespoke trade deal in two years or so," said an EU parliament official who deals with Brexit. "And for all that time the UK would be an EU colony -- forced to accept all our laws with no say.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on November 08, 2017, 10:29:33 PM
Quote from: Biffo on November 07, 2017, 01:03:57 AMthere are many people of a liberal or centre-left persuasion who think the EU is an abomination
, not so much based on facts, but on an irreversible fiction: as if Brussels were a dark power center that could make any decisions against the interests of the member states. This fiction is indeed so widespread that, for that reason alone, I'm content with Brexit and I think all other member states are: it will put an end to this stubborn myth, even though the consequences for the British Isles will be quite catastrophic.  :-X
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 08, 2017, 11:04:58 PM
Quote from: Biffo on November 07, 2017, 01:03:57 AM
I read The Guardian for many years and I am well aware of its character; I still see many of its articles online on a daily basis. Since the EU referendum it has carried fake news about Brexit on a daily basis. This includes speculative items from right-wing think tanks, self-interested businessmen, economists etc - all the kind of people it wouldn't have given the time of day to previously.

[...]

Perhaps the editor needs to realise that there are many people of a liberal or centre-left persuasion who think the EU is an abomination.

You got me confused with your introduction, considering that The Guardian strikes me as being liberal-progressive: favouring a regulated free market economy and socially progressive. And that doesn't match the accusation of featuring hardline right wing "fake news"
I guess its support of a global trade, free market economy makes it suspect in your eyes. Even if the free market is restricted and regultated to benefit social policies, public health and the environment.

You must be a fan of Corbyn...  :)

As to the EU being an abomination...
What has the UK membership of the largest democratic economic and political alliance on the planet ever done to you?
Apart from bringing decades of unprecedented peace and prosperity?  ::)
When the UK joined is was the "sick man" of Europe. Now it is the fith-largest economy in the world and (used to be) a major player in the Union.

I agree with Christo: only if Brexit goes ahead, this festering fantasy of total self control in splendid isolation can be brought to an end.
None of the UK's major domestic issues, like social and economic inequality and rural decline, will improve by Brexit.

After the Tories have finished themselves off, I don't think Corbyn won't have a penny left to pay for his socialist fantasies.
Sorry.... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Biffo on November 09, 2017, 12:51:31 AM
Quote from: Que on November 08, 2017, 11:04:58 PM
You got me confused with your introduction, considering that The Guardian strikes me as being liberal-progressive: favouring a regulated free market economy and socially progressive. And that doesn't match the accusation of featuring hardline right wing "fake news"
I guess its support of a global trade, free market economy makes it suspect in your eyes. Even if the free market is restricted and regultated to benefit social policies, public health and the environment.

You must be a fan of Corbyn...  :)

As to the EU being an abomination...
What has the UK membership of the largest democratic economic and political alliance on the planet ever done to you?
Apart from bringing decades of unprecedented peace and prosperity?  ::)
When the UK joined is was the "sick man" of Europe. Now it is the fith-largest economy in the world and (used to be) a major player in the Union.

I agree with Christo: only if Brexit goes ahead, this festering fantasy of total self control in splendid isolation can be brought to an end.
None of the UK's major domestic issues, like social and economic inequality and rural decline, will improve by Brexit.

After the Tories have finished themselves off, I don't think Corbyn won't have a penny left to pay for his socialist fantasies.
Sorry.... ::)

Q

I read The Guardian for nearly 40 years and, as I said there was a time when it wouldn't have given the time of day to the sort of people I mentioned, now it will print any old anti-Brexit.

As for peace and prosperity, two massive foreign armies of occupation - one American the other Soviet - kept the peace, the prosperity flowed from that naturally.

There is far too much in your posting for me to answer today, I don't have the time. Tomorrow I am off to France for three weeks to top up my xenophobia levels.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on November 09, 2017, 01:25:28 AM
Quote from: Biffo on November 09, 2017, 12:51:31 AM
As for peace and prosperity, two massive foreign armies of occupation - one American the other Soviet - kept the peace, the prosperity flowed from that naturally.

Yeah right, the peace and prosperity that flowed in Eastern and Central Europe from the Soviet Army occupation were indeed unprecedented.

Seriously now, any comparison between the real, harsh and hard military occupation of the Eastern and Central European countries by the Soviets, and the "Pax Americana" in Western Europe is intellectually and morally indefensible.

As for EU, it has its flaws and shortcomings, just like each and every other political institution created by humans, but it's far from being an abomination. The principle is sound and the main goals are reasonable. The problem lies rather with national leaders, who mostly lack the wisdom, will and moral courage required by the challenges they face.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Biffo on November 09, 2017, 01:41:10 AM
Quote from: Florestan on November 09, 2017, 01:25:28 AM
Yeah right, the peace and prosperity that flowed in Eastern and Central Europe from the Soviet Army occupation were indeed unprecedented.

Seriously now, any comparison between the real, harsh and hard military occupation of the Eastern and Central European countries by the Soviets, and the "Pax Americana" in Western Europe is intellectually and morally indefensible.

As for EU, it has its flaws and shortcomings, just like each and every other political institution created by humans, but it's far from being an abomination. The principle is sound and the main goals are reasonable. The problem lies rather with national leaders, who mostly lack the wisdom, will and moral courage required by the challenges they face.

We are discussing the European Union not the Soviet Bloc, I am making no comparison between the two. Western Europe, not just the EU flourished because of the peace and in some cases because it no longer had to pay for its own defence.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on November 09, 2017, 01:48:56 AM
Quote from: Biffo on November 09, 2017, 01:41:10 AM
We are discussing the European Union not the Soviet Bloc

Then why did you bring in the Soviet Army?

QuoteWestern Europe, not just the EU flourished because of the peace and in some cases because it no longer had to pay for its own defence.

Peace by itself is not sufficient for prosperity. Political, economic and civil freedom are essential ingredients as well.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on November 09, 2017, 01:52:04 AM
The other big problem with Brexit negotiation are the dissension within May's government.  May wants to keep a quotas for university students because they comes in official statistics.  The rest of her government wants to exclude this population because it brings in billions and is also a source cheap and highly qualified labor for UK universities.  The clash is here between the Theresa May dogmatic views and the pragmatic approach of most of her cabinet.



Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on November 09, 2017, 02:18:00 AM
I stopped taking the whole Brexit thing seriously after Boris's claim about the bananas.
IMHO, it's a disaster for any country when clowns like Johnson can rise to great heights.
And I'm just not able to believe Theresa May anymore. When political sentiments and opinions change, I bet she'd immediately jump on another train.

About the Guardian: I don't agree that newspaper editors and journalists should 'realize' what their readers want to read. I want the press to be as independent as possible. I would prefer journalists and editors to use their own brains, analyze events and developments, think for themselves, and publish it.

In these times, where people apparantly only want to hear and read the things they want to hear and read, any huge loss of readers and subscribers is IMO a proof of high quality and independence.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on November 09, 2017, 04:36:55 AM
Quote from: Marc on November 09, 2017, 02:18:00 AM

About the Guardian: I don't agree that newspaper editors and journalists should 'realize' what their readers want to read. I want the press to be as independent as possible. I would prefer journalists and editors to use their own brains, analyze events and developments, think for themselves, and publish it.

+1, of course.
A quality newspaper may overall lean towards one side or aspect politically, but it should represent a lot of different views, all the time.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on November 10, 2017, 12:14:48 AM
Farage on the necessity to ignore clever people in general.


https://twitter.com/Henry_Langston/status/928910798596050944
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on November 10, 2017, 12:34:28 AM
Quote from: Marc on November 09, 2017, 02:18:00 AM
I stopped taking the whole Brexit thing seriously after Boris's claim about the bananas.
IMHO, it's a disaster for any country when clowns like Johnson can rise to great heights.
I fear that this has become so frequent in so many countries that it might be a feature, not a bug...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on November 10, 2017, 12:44:15 AM
Quote from: Jo498 on November 10, 2017, 12:34:28 AM
I fear that this has become so frequent in so many countries that it might be a feature, not a bug...

+ 1.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on November 10, 2017, 02:02:16 AM
A little more seriously, I think that the buffoonish side of people like Johnson or Trump might be accidental but that obviously some kinds of narcissists and sociopaths have almost ideal traits for political (and some other high level public) carreers and are shaped or selected for by the hoops one has to jump through as an ambitious young person wanting such a carreer. This might have been always like that to some extent but the present media-driven situation makes it rather worse.

(Plato might have been wrong about a lot things but he was right that one had to force philosophers to become kings/rulers because they would not want that job...)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on November 11, 2017, 09:28:38 AM
Quote from: Biffo on November 07, 2017, 01:03:57 AM
I read The Guardian for many years and I am well aware of its character; I still see many of its articles online on a daily basis. Since the EU referendum it has carried fake news about Brexit on a daily basis. This includes speculative items from right-wing think tanks, self-interested businessmen, economists etc - all the kind of people it wouldn't have given the time of day to previously.


I have been reading the Guardian regularly for 40 years. If you have also been doing so, you'll know that it has always given house room to a wide range of opinions. I imagine you call Guardian articles 'Fake News' because you don't agree with them?

By the way, I am no knee-jerk remainer - I had to think long and hard about which way I would vote in the 2016 referendum.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 12, 2017, 04:29:06 AM
A plea for an extension of the negotiations in The Guardian, something May is effectively ruling out by proposing the inclusion of fixed exit date in the Brexit Bill:

QuoteA crisis point is looming and, if only to avoid total meltdown, it is time for a time-out on Brexit. It is time to stop the clock. Common sense demands it; the empirical evidence dictates it. This is not to say the decision to leave the EU should be reversed. This is not to say last year's referendum result should be ignored. This is not to say that a second referendum should be held, although the case in favour, if and when an exit deal is agreed, is steadily strengthening. It is to say that the negotiations have reached an obvious, perilous impasse and may become disastrously counterproductive.

It is in Britain's and Europe's interest to set back the 2019 departure date to give more time and space to resolve outstanding issues. It is the government's responsibility to halt the needless damage already being done to the living standards and life prospects of ordinary people. A Brexit freeze would allow both sides to step back and take stock. It would mitigate the damaging uncertainty affecting businesses and investors and open the way, perhaps, for a more realistic transition timetable. It would calm, for a while, the arguments over who owes what to whom.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/11/observer-view-on-britains-shambolic-brexit-negotiations

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 12, 2017, 04:42:53 AM
(https://www.garybarker.co.uk/files/leaver-lemmings-brexit-cartoon.jpg)

Is the DUP going to follow May off the cliff as depicted here?

The EU is proposing to keep Northern Ireland in the customs union, an arrangement that is ruled out by Brexiteers.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on November 12, 2017, 06:12:34 AM
This tory government is looking more and more like Florentine Pazzi conjuration in the 15th century.  A dagger waiting behind every door.  How long can Mrs May endure this situation ?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on November 14, 2017, 12:51:36 PM
Apparently the Brexiteers aren't all stupid; they've just been taken in by tweets from Russian trolls spreading nonsense across tinterweb.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/14/how-400-russia-run-fake-accounts-posted-bogus-brexit-tweets (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/14/how-400-russia-run-fake-accounts-posted-bogus-brexit-tweets)

PS Doesn't Theresa May look fabulous in that nightie?

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 14, 2017, 01:19:16 PM
Remember John Redwood's recent exhortation to the chancellor to make the Treasury's forecasts more optimistic?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/14/john-redwood-brexit-money-britain-eu (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/14/john-redwood-brexit-money-britain-eu)

Oh dear!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 16, 2017, 11:39:19 PM
David Davis warns EU not to put 'politics above prosperity' in Brexit talks (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/16/david-davis-warns-eu-not-to-put-politics-above-prosperity-in-brexit-talks)

Perhaps the UK government should take heed of its own advice..... ::) The whole concept of Brexit is about putting politics over prosperity....

It is estimated that Dutch economy will take a medium term hit of 4% of GDP in case of a hard Brexit....
The suggestion that the major EU trading partners like the Danes, the Dutch, the Belgiums and the Germans are not sufficiently considering their economic interests, is simply ludicrous.... ???

What the UK demands are free handouts for a non member and continued cherry picked cooperation without legal guarantees and independent scrutiny, which amounts to effectively undermining the fundamentals of the EU.
That's not going to happen, not even if Brexit will set off an economic shock wave through other European economies....

Q

PS
Quote"We are the same country we have always been. With the same values and same principles we have always had," he said

Lies.... The UK has and will be fundamentally changed by Brexit and will be never be the same, not even if Brexit is stopped or the UK will rejoin the EU in the future. Brexit will be a turning point in British history, and in the history of Europe for that matter....
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 17, 2017, 05:30:33 AM
Quote from: Que on November 16, 2017, 11:39:19 PM
David Davis warns EU not to put 'politics above prosperity' in Brexit talks (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/16/david-davis-warns-eu-not-to-put-politics-above-prosperity-in-brexit-talks)

Perhaps the UK government should take heed of its own advice..... ::) The whole concept of Brexit is about putting politics over property....

We've had Bernard Jenkin accusing others of only listening to those voices that confirm their own preconceptions and being blind to the facts. Now Davis saying the EU shouldn't put politics before prosperity. All we need now is Boris Johnson warning of the folly of touring the country in a big red bus with a misleading and undeliverable promise plastered all over it. 

QuoteWhat the UK demands are free handouts for a non member and continued cherry picked cooperation without legal guarantees and independent scrutiny, which amounts to effectively undermining the fundamentals of the EU.

And when this miraculous deal doesn't happen, it will all be the EU's fault for being unreasonable and setting out to punish us for leaving. This narrative has already started.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 17, 2017, 05:35:37 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DEOBG9yXoAA7083.jpg)


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-WlbIgWsAAyowP.jpg:large)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 17, 2017, 07:57:25 AM
 :laugh:  :laugh:  :laugh:

What I (still) admire about Britishness: keep your sense of humour in any situation...  8)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 18, 2017, 03:26:35 AM
I am not optimistic...

Firstly, Ireland will block any deal that doesn't involve an open border with Northern Ireland, which would require a special status for NI that is unacceptable for the DUP.

Secondly, the UK might be willing to pay up the divorce bill, but only if it gets the fantasy end deal it has demanded right from the start.

Seems like a no go to me.....  ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on November 18, 2017, 07:13:16 AM
The whole thing reminds me of a very context-fit joke.

During the Napoleonic Wars, a British battle ship engages a French one. In the heat of the battle, the English captain shouts to the French one: "You Frenchmen fight for money, we Englishmen fight for honour!" To which the French captain retorts: "Why, of course! People fight for what they lack!"

;D ;D ;D

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 18, 2017, 07:41:11 AM
I forsee Hong Kong handover like images: the last ferry to Albion leaving Calais at the stroke of midnight (mid-European time, mind you)  while the band plays Rule, Brittania.

After that nostalgic scene, I don't see why the UK should be worried about long lines of trucks: trade between the UK and (the rest of) Europe will take a nose dive anyway....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 18, 2017, 03:24:29 PM
Quote from: Que on November 18, 2017, 03:26:35 AM
I am not optimistic...

Firstly, Ireland will block any deal that doesn't involve an open border with Northern Ireland, which would require a special status for NI that is unacceptable for the DUP.

Secondly, the UK might be willing to pay up the divorce bill, but only if it gets the fantasy end deal it has demanded right from the start.

Seems like a no go to me.....  ::)

Q


Both valid points, but the above problems are as nothing compared to the fact that any deal will have to be acceptable to the Tory party. The problem with that is that the Brexiteer fanatics will veto any deal that they deem too soft, while the less insane wing of the party will do the same to any deal they deem too hard. It's very hard to see any deal that both could sign up to.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 18, 2017, 03:40:37 PM
Quote from: Que on November 17, 2017, 07:57:25 AM
:laugh:  :laugh:  :laugh:

What I (still) admire about Britishness: keep your sense of humour in any situation...  8)

Q

The disturbing thing is that the Austin Brexit spoof is not even that much of an exaggeration. Since the referendum I've seen plenty of interviews with leave voters who, when asked about the obvious risks of Brexit, utter such pearls of wisdom as "we're stronger than we think we are", "we'll find a way to sort it out", "there'll be a few bumps in the road but basically we'll be fine", and of course that old favourite "they need us more than we need them" (though that last one seems to crop up much less frequently now, perhaps because assurances from Farage and co that the likes of German car manufacturers would come riding to our rescue have failed to materialise).

Considering that Brexit has been driven largely by the right, it's striking just how much has changed. The British right used to pride itself on its pragmatism: their view was that unlike the left, and especially those woolly-minded continentals, we Brits could be proud of the fact that we didn't go in for reckless, grandiose political projects driven by half-baked, fanatical ideology. No, we took the cautious, rational, small-c conservative approach.

And yet what they're now doing with Brexit is as reckless, half-baked, ideologically fanatical and unconservative as it gets. They campaigned for this extraordinarily risky outcome yet made no preparation at all for what they'd do if they won. Any plans they had went no further than spouting "take back control" at every available opportunity, a slogan about on a par with "Make America Great Again". It's incredible.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on November 18, 2017, 05:05:08 PM
The bigger the mistake, the more adamantly voters will refuse to consider - let alone admit - having been wrong. We can see that on both sides of the pond.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 19, 2017, 12:49:51 AM
Quote from: André on November 18, 2017, 05:05:08 PM
The bigger the mistake, the more adamantly voters will refuse to consider - let alone admit - having been wrong. We can see that on both sides of the pond.

So very true.... Who's going to admit to a mistake of that magnitude, induced by ignorance, frustration, fear, false sentiments of nostalgic grandeur and deliberate deceit?  ???

And in the aftermath, when consequences become irrefutable, nobody will be able to recall ever having voted in favour of Brexit in the first place...  ::)


Quote from: Mr. Minnow on November 18, 2017, 03:40:37 PM

Considering that Brexit has been driven largely by the right, it's striking just how much has changed. The British right used to pride itself on its pragmatism: their view was that unlike the left, and especially those woolly-minded continentals, we Brits could be proud of the fact that we didn't go in for reckless, grandiose political projects driven by half-baked, fanatical ideology. No, we took the cautious, rational, small-c conservative approach.

And yet what they're now doing with Brexit is as reckless, half-baked, ideologically fanatical and unconservative as it gets. They campaigned for this extraordinarily risky outcome yet made no preparation at all for what they'd do if they won. Any plans they had went no further than spouting "take back control" at every available opportunity, a slogan about on a par with "Make America Great Again". It's incredible.   

What I find interesting is that Labour's left wing (Corbynistas) stuck to their traditional script of "reckless, grandiose political projects driven by half-baked, fanatical ideology".... Which means Brexit is driven by both of the outer sides of the political spectrum with the more sensible middle sandwiched in between, abondended by a misguided or intimidated electorate.

I don't mean to be alarmist, but if I were British I wouldn't just worry about Brexit but also about what comes next....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on November 19, 2017, 01:35:32 AM
Quote from: André on November 18, 2017, 05:05:08 PM
The bigger the mistake, the more adamantly voters will refuse to consider - let alone admit - having been wrong. We can see that on both sides of the pond.

How very true.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on November 19, 2017, 01:38:04 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on November 17, 2017, 05:35:37 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DEOBG9yXoAA7083.jpg)


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-WlbIgWsAAyowP.jpg:large)
I did once own an Austin 'Allegro' and it did, indeed, break down all the time.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 19, 2017, 05:53:16 AM
Quote from: Que on November 19, 2017, 12:49:51 AMWhat I find interesting is that Labour's left wing (Corbynistas) stuck to their traditional script of "reckless, grandiose political projects driven by half-baked, fanatical ideology".... Which means Brexit is driven by both of the outer sides of the political spectrum with the more sensible middle sandwiched in between, abondended by a misguided or intimidated electorate.

I don't mean to be alarmist, but if I were British I wouldn't just worry about Brexit but also about what comes next....

Q

To be fair, Corbyn campaigned for Remain, despite his history of euroscepticism. He was criticised for not campaigning enthusiastically enough, but if he'd taken the line that the EU was just terrific it would have lacked all credibility, especially after decades of anti-EU tabloid poison. And while Labour's manifesto at this year's general election may be left wing by British standards, it didn't really amount to anything much more radical than European social democracy. The constant cries of "Venezuela!" from the likes of the Daily Mail really are utter bollocks. Corbyn didn't do so much better than expected at the election because he's a fire-breathing revolutionary, he did so largely because he took a clear anti-austerity line. Even Tory MPs have reported that their experience of the campaign was that many voters - even including many of their own voters - were sick of austerity. Unfortunately for them they're the architects of austerity and there's not really a way for them to distance themselves from it.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 19, 2017, 06:18:21 AM
Fair enough.... :)  But I think Corbyn was less than not ethusiastic, he was reluctant.
But he had to do so, after all...... that was the consensus in the Labour party....

After the referendum he didn't lift a finger to steer away from Brexit, he even came up with reasons why Brexit wasn't such a bad idea.
I think for him the current situation is a blessing: it will kill two birds with one stone and he will get rid of the Tories as well as the EU.

Will Corbyn when he takes power after Brexit and the implosion of the Conservative Party rejoin the internal market and the customs union?
He might, but I'm  not so sure....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on November 19, 2017, 07:31:49 AM
Quote from: Que on November 19, 2017, 12:49:51 AM
What I find interesting is that Labour's left wing (Corbynistas) stuck to their traditional script of "reckless, grandiose political projects driven by half-baked, fanatical ideology"....
Wouldn't many call the EU itself a "reckless grandiose political project"? If not many had thought along similar lines, Brexit would hardly have been appeared so attractive.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 19, 2017, 08:00:41 AM
Quote from: Que on November 19, 2017, 06:18:21 AM
Fair enough.... :)  But I think Corbyn was less than not ethusiastic, he was reluctant.
But he had to do so, after all...... that was the consensus in the Labour party....

After the referendum he didn't lift a finger to steer away from Brexit, he even came up with reasons why Brexit wasn't such a bad idea.
I think for him the current situation is a blessing: it will kill two birds with one stone and he will get rid of the Tories as well as the EU.

Will Corbyn when he takes power after Brexit and the implosion of the Conservative Party rejoin the internal market and the customs union?
He might, but I'm  not so sure....

Q

I think that the British left's views on the EU have changed somewhat, and that applies to Corbyn as well. There's no doubt that in the early 80s they were unequivocally hostile to the EU, as they saw it as a capitalist club. This culminated in Labour's 1983 manifesto, which included a pledge to take Britain out of the EU (without a referendum if I remember rightly). But from that point on, as the EU started to incorporate a social agenda, the British left found it increasingly attractive, especially with a very right wing government at home steadily undermining social protections wherever it could. That process has gone into overdrive since the financial crash, with Cameron and Osborne introducing a series of unbelievably vicious cuts against those who could least afford them. As a result, there is a genuine fear on the left, shared by Corbyn, that the hard right of the Tory party will use Brexit as an excuse to pursue an ultra-Thatcherite agenda, shredding public services and the welfare state even further and turning us into a country of minimal taxation, public spending and workers' rights. That fear is a rational one - we've already heard such noises coming from Rees-Mogg, there are also previous statements arguing for this from the likes of Priti Patel and Dominic Raab, and the economists who supported Brexit include people such as Patrick Minford, a fanatical Thatcherite who apparently acknowledged that such an approach could well decimate our manufacturing and agricultural sectors - but doesn't think that would be too much of a problem. It's therefore no surprise that most of the left now views the EU a lot more positively than it did 30 years ago.

I agree that Corbyn's initial response to Brexit wasn't his finest hour. His call to trigger article 50 immediately was not well judged, though to be fair he may have assumed that the government had some sort of plan in place for that - an assumption which would not have been unreasonable, even though it turned out to be wrong.

As to whether he would take us back into the single market and customs union, I think he might well want to. I could see a compromise position emerging in which he takes us into the EEA, which would mitigate the worst of the economic damage while allowing him to say he'd respected the referendum result. But he can't advocate such a position yet for two related reasons: first, there hasn't yet been much of a swing against Brexit from leave voters (polls suggest there has been a modest degree of movement towards Remain, but not much). Second, he's having to walk a tightrope in terms of trying to manage the split in Labour's vote: on the one hand, working class Labour voters in poor, deindustrialised towns who largely voted leave, and middle class metropolitan voters who mostly voted Remain. As long as those leave voters still support Brexit, any attempt to keep us in the EU - or even the EEA, which the Tory Brexiteers are portraying as effectively staying in the EU - would probably lose him a lot of those leave voters. Hopefully, when those voters see the damage caused by Brexit and start to feel that Brexit is hurting them personally, they might be more receptive to either staying in the EU, or at the very least a much softer Brexit. Even then it will be a battle though, given that the press, which is dominated by the right, will spin either of those options as a betrayal by "treacherous Remoaners". Corbyn has therefore been dealt a very difficult hand. So far, the occasional misstep aside, I think he's playing it about as well as could be expected in the circumstances.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 19, 2017, 08:06:43 AM
Quote from: Jo498 on November 19, 2017, 07:31:49 AM
Wouldn't many call the EU itself a "reckless grandiose political project"? If not many had thought along similar lines, Brexit would hardly have been appeared so attractive.

Definitely a grandiose political project, though its materialisation has been gradual, spanning over half a century.

Reckless?  ::) I think the introduction of the Euro without a sound political foundation was rather reckless (blame Mitterand, and Kohl for agreeing to it.)

But overall the EU has made Europe a safer place than it was ever before.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on November 19, 2017, 08:25:00 AM
^^ Well said, Mr. Minnow.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 19, 2017, 04:11:16 PM
Quote from: Turbot nouveaux on November 19, 2017, 08:25:00 AM
^^ Well said, Mr. Minnow.

Thanks :)

Interesting Guardian editorial on the Irish border:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2017/nov/19/the-guardian-view-on-brexit-and-the-irish-border-britains-shameful-dereliction (https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2017/nov/19/the-guardian-view-on-brexit-and-the-irish-border-britains-shameful-dereliction)

I wish I could say that the Brexiteers have given this issue the due weight and attention it clearly deserves and that the article is therefore inaccurate. Unfortunately they haven't, so it's not. The lack of focus on this problem during the referendum campaign was appalling, as is the complacency with which it's been treated since. Whenever I've seen leave voters asked about this, the usual response has been "well no-one wants a hard border so it will be down to the Irish if it happens." I'm not sure if they genuinely don't understand the implications of leaving the customs union and single market, or they do understand but just don't give a shit.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 19, 2017, 04:14:01 PM
Quote from: vandermolen on November 19, 2017, 01:38:04 AM
I did once own an Austin 'Allegro' and it did, indeed, break down all the time.

I bet you felt British and free though. :P
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on November 19, 2017, 05:05:16 PM
Quote from: vandermolen on November 19, 2017, 01:38:04 AM
I did once own an Austin 'Allegro' and it did, indeed, break down all the time.

Well, the Germans had the Trabant and the French had the 2 chevaux...


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BN2DIXHDlmI (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BN2DIXHDlmI)

I'll bet you weren't so badly off with your Austin, Jeffrey !
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: kishnevi on November 19, 2017, 05:25:00 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on November 19, 2017, 04:11:16 PM
Thanks :)

Interesting Guardian editorial on the Irish border:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2017/nov/19/the-guardian-view-on-brexit-and-the-irish-border-britains-shameful-dereliction (https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2017/nov/19/the-guardian-view-on-brexit-and-the-irish-border-britains-shameful-dereliction)

I wish I could say that the Brexiteers have given this issue the due weight and attention it clearly deserves and that the article is therefore inaccurate. Unfortunately they haven't, so it's not. The lack of focus on this problem during the referendum campaign was appalling, as is the complacency with which it's been treated since. Whenever I've seen leave voters asked about this, the usual response has been "well no-one wants a hard border so it will be down to the Irish if it happens." I'm not sure if they genuinely don't understand the implications of leaving the customs union and single market, or they do understand but just don't give a shit.

Question from the other side of the Pond.  (I think I know what the answer is, but I don't know for sure.)

Does membership in the EU automatically preclude Ireland from maintaining an open border? More broadly are countries in the EU limited in the terms of trade agreements  they can make with nonEU countries?

BTW, I once worked for a man who had a Jaguar. It was at the mechanic's almost every week. He finally traded it in for a Mercedes-Benz.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 19, 2017, 10:38:33 PM
Quote from: Jeffrey Smith on November 19, 2017, 05:25:00 PM
Question from the other side of the Pond.  (I think I know what the answer is, but I don't know for sure.)

Does membership in the EU automatically preclude Ireland from maintaining an open border? More broadly are countries in the EU limited in the terms of trade agreements  they can make with nonEU countries?

Any customs area has to be a closed system.
If Ireland and NI had an open border while NI was outside of the EU, all imports would enter the EU through that border to avoid import duties and checks on EU health & safety standards. Once goods enter the EU customs union, they can freely circulate. This is called "free movement of goods" and forms, together with the free movement of services, capital and perons, the foundation of the internal market - "The four freedoms".

The UK doesn't want to remain part of the internal market nor of the customs union, but still insists on the continuation of "frictionless" trade with the EU.

Anyone who can figure that one out is IMO eligible for the Nobel Prize in economics....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on November 19, 2017, 10:52:07 PM
Quote from: André on November 19, 2017, 05:05:16 PM
Well, the Germans had the Trabant and the French had the 2 chevaux...


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BN2DIXHDlmI (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BN2DIXHDlmI)

I'll bet you weren't so badly off with your Austin, Jeffrey !
I drove a 2CV for over 10 years and it was reasonably reliable. A Brexiteer could probably also argue that Britain used to build better cars before they joined the common market.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on November 20, 2017, 12:51:30 AM
Quote from: Jo498 on November 19, 2017, 10:52:07 PM
I drove a 2CV for over 10 years and it was reasonably reliable. A Brexiteer could probably also argue that Britain used to build better cars before they joined the common market.
OT
My 2CV was very good in snow. It never quite recovered from my ill-advised decision to put it through a car-wash.  ???
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: zamyrabyrd on November 20, 2017, 12:55:11 AM
Quote from: Que on November 19, 2017, 08:06:43 AM
Definitely a grandiose political project, though its materialisation has been gradual, spanning over half a century.
Reckless?  ::) I think the introduction of the Euro without a sound political foundation was rather reckless (blame Mitterand, and Kohl for agreeing to it.)
But overall the EU has made Europe a safer place than it was ever before.

You've got to be kidding! Unvetted immigration throughout the EU is at the CAUSE of grotesque, bloody terrorist attacks.
If it weren't an already agreed on policy from back then, all those countries who opened their doors to the Trojan Horses would not have been so in accord with one another. Even countries like Greece who thought they would benefit from economic mooching is paying the price with wave after wave of "refugees" on their shores they cannot cope with.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on November 20, 2017, 02:46:55 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on November 19, 2017, 04:14:01 PM
I bet you felt British and free though. :P

Too right. As long as I get a blue passport I don't care about the economic self-harm the headbangers want to inflict. Let's go back to good old European wars too. Those bloody foreigners that picked our fruit n veg and saved lives in our hospitals need to go back home so that we can bomb them.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on November 20, 2017, 02:49:38 AM
Quote from: Que on November 19, 2017, 06:18:21 AM
Fair enough.... :)  But I think Corbyn was less than not ethusiastic, he was reluctant.
But he had to do so, after all...... that was the consensus in the Labour party....

After the referendum he didn't lift a finger to steer away from Brexit, he even came up with reasons why Brexit wasn't such a bad idea.
I think for him the current situation is a blessing: it will kill two birds with one stone and he will get rid of the Tories as well as the EU.

Will Corbyn when he takes power after Brexit and the implosion of the Conservative Party rejoin the internal market and the customs union?
He might, but I'm  not so sure....

Q

I think Corbyn is ambivalent about the EU, as am I. The pros outweigh the cons, but the neoliberal aspect is a concern, which is what did for Greece.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 20, 2017, 03:19:39 AM
He's at it again:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-safety-standards-workers-rights-jacob-rees-mogg-a7459336.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-safety-standards-workers-rights-jacob-rees-mogg-a7459336.html)

Common sense policies for a happier Britain. Marvellous.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on November 20, 2017, 03:25:22 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on November 20, 2017, 03:19:39 AM
He's at it again:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-safety-standards-workers-rights-jacob-rees-mogg-a7459336.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-safety-standards-workers-rights-jacob-rees-mogg-a7459336.html)

Common sense policies for a happier Britain. Marvellous.

I reckon he's a plant by Labour to ensure a massive Labour victory.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 20, 2017, 09:00:06 AM
Quote from: zamyrabyrd on November 20, 2017, 12:55:11 AM
You've got to be kidding! Unvetted immigration throughout the EU is at the CAUSE of grotesque, bloody terrorist attacks.
If it weren't an already agreed on policy from back then, all those countries who opened their doors to the Trojan Horses would not have been so in accord with one another. Even countries like Greece who thought they would benefit from economic mooching is paying the price with wave after wave of "refugees" on their shores they cannot cope with.

You must be kidding, since the admission of immigrants from outside of the EU is the primary perogative of the individual member states....  8)
And that includes the UK.....

http://ec.europa.eu/immigration/who-does-what/more-information/explaining-the-rules-why-are-there-eu-rules-and-national-rules_en

Obviously, European countries admitted people they shouldn't have admitted.
Unfortunately, judging from its track record,  the US doesn't seem to have done much better....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on November 21, 2017, 04:23:35 AM
Quote from: Que on November 20, 2017, 09:00:06 AM

Obviously, European countries admitted people they shouldn't have admitted.
Unfortunately, judging from its track record,  the US doesn't seem to have done much better....


Indeed. The worst was the immigration of religious extremists in 1620.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on November 21, 2017, 05:39:10 AM
After reading a sensible, neutral, factual piece on the german coalition collapse in Der Spiegel, I read this amazing piece of « alternative political thinking » in The Independent:


http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/germany-angela-merkel-what-it-means-for-brexit-a8064861.html?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_todayworld (http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/germany-angela-merkel-what-it-means-for-brexit-a8064861.html?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_todayworld)

What's truly amazing here is that this very long article is not really on the current german political situation, but is all about GB and Brexit fantasy scenarios. The article's speculations, « what ifs » and other convolutions and fabulations are a reflection of what's wrong with UK politics: a tendency to believe the unbelievable, to invent and give credibility to bizarre scenarios, to ignore hard facts and refuse to face complex issues.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on November 21, 2017, 06:01:09 AM
The panic about the failed negotiations in Germany is extremely exaggerated. (Technically it was only pre-negotiations.)
There is an acting government and these parties still have a majority in the parliament (although the SPD does not want to continue the coalition) there is no danger of anarchy or disorder at all and especially for foreign policy it is quite irrelevant if it takes another few months for a new government to be established or if there are going to be elections again in spring.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on November 21, 2017, 07:05:54 AM
Quote from: Jo498 on November 21, 2017, 06:01:09 AM
The panic about the failed negotiations in Germany is extremely exaggerated.
Then you are going to love this front page of Liberation, a mildly leftist newspaper.
(http://md0.libe.com/api/libe/v2/paperpage/248092/?format=jpg&size=x500)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on November 21, 2017, 08:17:50 AM
It is not wrong that Merkel is clearly past her prime and the main reason she is not forced to step down is that her party does not have anyone better. (And because they are still the strongest party they also gloss over the fact that they had their worst election result in the last 50 years.) But this very different from a public crisis or so.
There are still several options, rare for Germany but constitutional and all in good order: re-negotiate for another coalition, minority goverment or new elections in early 2018.
(The main problem is that another election will very probably not improve the situation because still no party will be strong enough for any of the "tradtional" coalitions, so they will again be forced to negotiate uncommon ones.)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on November 21, 2017, 10:44:56 AM
Quote from: Jo498 on November 21, 2017, 08:17:50 AM
The main problem is that another election will very probably not improve the situation because still no party will be strong enough for any of the "tradtional" coalitions
A (german) colleague thinks that the FDP could fall below 5% because of their poor communication in this unfruitful negotiation process.  If this was the case,  they would be out of the picture and putting together a coalition would be relatively easy.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on November 21, 2017, 11:07:12 AM
Right after the election and before any negotiation there was an article in a Swiss newspaper (probably NZZ) that warned the FDP to join the government and also predicted that next time (of course he meant 2021) they would again be kicked out of parliament and never come back.

Polls for elections right now are inconclusive but most predict very little change (so FDP would be in), except that Merkel's party would lose another 2-3%. But at ca. 29% they would still be the strongest! Even if you divide the 10% of the FDP somewhat evenly between other parties, it will not become easier. There would still be only one two-party-coalition ("grand coalition" of the last 4 years that was punished with the weakest results ever, so the SPD decided that they could not continue) and no feasible three-party-coalition because nobody wants to go with the right-wing AfD.

This is derailing this thread and I don't think we want a German Politics thread but it cannot be denied that it is a mess with no easy way out. But it is mostly a mess for our stupid parties and politicians, not anything that will lead to real instabilities or riots or something (you know, one would have to step on the lawn for riots, so Germans don't do it).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on November 21, 2017, 11:27:27 AM
As there is a strong correlation between the absence of refugees and other 'foreigners' in a region, and AfD votes - over 80 percent of stemming from the most "white" regions of Germany - there's a simple way to totally outdo the AfD: allocate the next influx of refugees to these "white" regions, and these Nazis will lose all support.  ;)

BTW, here's a simple map showing this correlation: left the percentage of foreigners, right the AfD vote:
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: kishnevi on November 21, 2017, 12:40:57 PM
Quote from: Christo on November 21, 2017, 11:27:27 AM
As there is a strong correlation between the absence of refugees and other 'foreigners' in a region, and AfD votes - over 80 percent of stemming from the most "white" regions of Germany - there's a simple way to totally outdo the AfD: allocate the next influx of refugees to these "white" regions, and these Nazis will lose all support.  ;)

BTW, here's a simple map showing this correlation: left the percentage of foreigners, right the AfD vote:

There seems to be a strong correlation between the AfD vote and the areas that were once East Germany. The only exception seems to along the Czech-Bavarian border.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on November 21, 2017, 12:57:45 PM
Quote from: Jeffrey Smith on November 21, 2017, 12:40:57 PMThere seems to be a strong correlation between the AfD vote and the areas that were once East Germany. The only exception seems to along the Czech-Bavarian border.
There is. And the 'Czech-Bavarian border' area - the Bavarian Woods or Bayerischer Wald‎ (where I often went skiing) - is equally devoid of 'foreigners', showing the same relation between the extreme right and a virtual perception of social reality. I guess the same pattern is discernable in the States?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: kishnevi on November 21, 2017, 01:10:42 PM
Quote from: Christo on November 21, 2017, 12:57:45 PM
There is. And the 'Czech-Bavarian border' area - the Bavarian Woods or Bayerischer Wald‎ (where I often went skiing) - is equally devoid of 'foreigners', showing the same relation between the extreme right and a virtual perception of social reality. I guess the same pattern is discernable in the States?

To some extent, but not as clearcut. The basic divide is probably best thought of as urban v rural and/or inland v coastal. But immigrants can be found all over: farm workers in the rural areas, etc. Texas is heavily Republican (but not thoroughly, as Gurn and Brian can bear witness) and also heavily Hispanic, for instance.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 25, 2017, 02:40:11 AM
Ten days to crack Brexit deal, EU tells May (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu/ten-days-to-crack-brexit-deal-eu-tells-may-idUSKBN1DO0SA)


I'm still pessimistic, time to brace for impact....  ::)

Brexit: How the Netherlands is braced for 'no deal' (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41986090)

I guess due to our history we are a risk averse nation that likes to be prepared....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on November 25, 2017, 10:56:43 PM
Theresa May wants to keep the 45-50 billions pounds brexit bill she has agreed to secret

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8 (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8)

In the age of internet ?  Come on, we already know the figure....

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 26, 2017, 01:11:05 AM
Quote from: Spineur on November 25, 2017, 10:56:43 PM
Theresa May wants to keep the 45-50 billions pounds brexit bill she has agreed to secret

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8 (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8)

In the age of internet ?  Come on, we already know the figure....

It is interesting how much fuss is made on the UK side about this exit bill.
For the EU it is just a settlement of outstanding financial obligations that will avoid a hole in the current budget.
If the UK will pay up its contribution, it will also be entitled to any payments out of the EU funds, which make will the total sum net out some £20 billion lower.
Though a proper settlement is for the EU a precondition to further negotiations, the real incentive for the EU to negotiate a transitional deal and trade deal is to avoid economic damage. The UK doesn't seem to get that, they think the exit bill provides the ultimate leverage to a magical dream deal...

The total of £111 billion all the rebates the UK has ever enjoyed does put things more in perspective, I think.
As does the estimated £72 billion each year in damage to the UK economy that is now predicted by 2021....

https://www.businessinsider.nl/the-economic-cost-of-brexit-in-gdp-2017-11/?international=true&r=UK

What is the saying again? Penny wise, pound foolish?  ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 26, 2017, 01:02:15 PM
Another giant stride towards those sunlit uplands has been taken thanks to Liam Fox, who is insisting that there can be no settling of the Irish border question until a trade deal with the EU has been agreed. So if you thought the sequencing of the talks is one of the few things which has been agreed, well Fox is doing his best to scupper even that. Naturally, he's blaming the EU for the lack of progress.

This is the same Liam Fox who, as defence secretary, was forced out of the government just a few years ago for taking his best man, businessman/lobbyist Adam Werritty, into official meetings - despite the fact that he had no security clearance. Fox also had to pay back Werritty's expenses after charging them to the state. How fortunate we are to have this peerless statesman back in government and making such a valuable contribution to Brexit.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 27, 2017, 09:12:26 AM
Congratulations to Kate Hoey, who has graduated from the Donald Trump Academy of International Relations with this stellar example of diplomacy in action:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/mp-says-ireland-would-have-to-pay-for-hard-border-without-brexit-deal-1.3306727 (https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/mp-says-ireland-would-have-to-pay-for-hard-border-without-brexit-deal-1.3306727)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on November 28, 2017, 09:16:04 AM
According to the Telegraph an agreement has been reached between the UK & EU on the divorce terms.  I am quite interested to see the ones coming forward to derail the negociation process .

This is an easy way to spot Teresa May rivals among the tories.

In the meantime the GPB is soaring.  Too bad for those who forgot to stock up on the hyperion opera-rara and other UK labels !!!

Edit: UK government denies the Telegraph article.  So which one is the fake news ?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on November 28, 2017, 10:17:26 AM
Quote from: Que on November 26, 2017, 01:11:05 AM

[...]

Though a proper settlement is for the EU a precondition to further negotiations, the real incentive for the EU to negotiate a transitional deal and trade deal is to avoid economic damage. The UK doesn't seem to get that, they think the exit bill provides the ultimate leverage to a magical dream deal...

Q


No, we get that. Unfortunately the unhinged Brexiteers see it quite differently. And I'm sorry to say, there are deluded souls on our political left and on our right.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 28, 2017, 10:24:40 AM
Quote from: Turbot nouveaux on November 28, 2017, 10:17:26 AM

No, we get that. Unfortunately the unhinged Brexiteers see it quite differently. And I'm sorry to say, there are deluded souls on our political left and on our right.

I said "UK", but should have said "UK government".

My apologies to the 48%....  :-\

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on November 29, 2017, 03:24:19 AM
Quote from: Spineur on November 28, 2017, 09:16:04 AM
According to the Telegraph an agreement has been reached between the UK & EU on the divorce terms.
We know what the denials are all about.  This is what David Davis was saying Sept. 4th

https://www.youtube.com/v/O6zEjQLTkYU
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on December 01, 2017, 02:49:18 PM
'Ireland will have the final say on whether the UK has made sufficient progress in Brexit negotiations to move on to the next stage, Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, has said. In a strongly worded statement expressing solidarity with Ireland, Tusk said Brexit problems were of Britain's own making, but Ireland's problems were the EU's. He warned that progress would not be possible if the taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, was not satisfied with the UK's offer on the Irish border, which is scheduled to be tabled in Brussels on Monday.'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/01/ireland-will-have-final-say-on-progress-of-brexit-talks-says-eu?CMP=share_btn_tw
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 01, 2017, 03:31:37 PM
A summary of what the Brexiteers promised, and where we actually are:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/01/the-brexit-climbdown-is-far-from-what-leaving-was-meant-to-look-like (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/01/the-brexit-climbdown-is-far-from-what-leaving-was-meant-to-look-like)

Funnily enough, the Brexit-supporting press doesn't seem too keen on holding them to account for this embarrassing discrepancy. "Brexit will be great!" seems to have been replaced by "it's worth it no matter how high the cost." Who'd have thought it?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 01, 2017, 03:37:21 PM
Quote from: Christo on December 01, 2017, 02:49:18 PM
'Ireland will have the final say on whether the UK has made sufficient progress in Brexit negotiations to move on to the next stage, Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, has said. In a strongly worded statement expressing solidarity with Ireland, Tusk said Brexit problems were of Britain's own making, but Ireland's problems were the EU's. He warned that progress would not be possible if the taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, was not satisfied with the UK's offer on the Irish border, which is scheduled to be tabled in Brussels on Monday.'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/01/ireland-will-have-final-say-on-progress-of-brexit-talks-says-eu?CMP=share_btn_tw

An issue of such acute political sensitivity and importance - and, as with everything else, the Brexiteers had literally no fucking clue what to about it if they won. No plan of any sort. Just blithe assurances that it wouldn't be a problem because the EU would let us keep the benefits of single market membership without any of the obligations, so no plan would be needed. Let that sink in.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 02, 2017, 12:54:45 AM
Quote from: Christo on December 01, 2017, 02:49:18 PM
'Ireland will have the final say on whether the UK has made sufficient progress in Brexit negotiations to move on to the next stage, Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, has said. In a strongly worded statement expressing solidarity with Ireland, Tusk said Brexit problems were of Britain's own making, but Ireland's problems were the EU's. He warned that progress would not be possible if the taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, was not satisfied with the UK's offer on the Irish border, which is scheduled to be tabled in Brussels on Monday.'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/01/ireland-will-have-final-say-on-progress-of-brexit-talks-says-eu?CMP=share_btn_tw

I'm not sure if there's a way out on the issue of Northern Ireland, assuming the UK will leave the internal market and the customs union.

It is theoretically possible for NI to remain in the customs union and continue to be part of the internal market.

But mind that the "internal market" is not just about borders, it a single regulatory framework with shared rules on goods, services and capital. These shared rules ensure that incoming and outgoing goods or services meet commonly agreed standards. That is why they can freely flow within the EU.

For instance: to assure the free flow of agricultural produce between NI and Ireland and the rest of the EU, the produce will have to meet EU standards. And for that to happen, NI needs a regulatory framework that follows EU regulations. This needs to be separate from that of the rest of the UK if the UK deviates from those EU regulations.

A solution could be to create limited free trade by ensuring EU-conformity in key economic areas and exclude the rest, or accept the economic and regulatory distortion that will result from it and try to geographically limit its impact. Not a very attractive prospect from the EU....

The customs union is not an easy issue either - the customs border has to be somewhere.
Since trade between NI and the rest of the UK is considerably stronger than with Ireland,  it doesn't make sense from an economical point of view to shift the customs border Eastwards: the damage would be greater than the benefits. At least economically. ...

Q


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 02, 2017, 02:10:12 AM
Quote from: Que on December 02, 2017, 12:54:45 AM
I'm not sure if there's a way out on the issue of Northern Ireland, assuming the UK will leave the internal market and the customs union.

It is theoretically possible for NI to remain in the customs union and continue to be part of the internal market.

[...]

Q


Yes, but the cost of this would be DUP fury because the 'threat' (from the point of view of diehard Unionists) of a united Ireland would have been brought so much closer. Arlene Foster would then end her 'confidence and supply' arrangement with the UK Conservatives and the government would surely fall quickly thereafter.

Not that any of this would be unwelcome... ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 02, 2017, 02:54:03 AM
Quote from: Turbot nouveaux on December 02, 2017, 02:10:12 AM

Yes, but the cost of this would be DUP fury because the 'threat' (from the point of view of diehard Unionists) of a united Ireland would have been brought so much closer. Arlene Foster would then end her 'confidence and supply' arrangement with the UK Conservatives and the government would surely fall quickly thereafter.

Not that any of this would be unwelcome... ::)

I have a hunch this Tory government might fall before this is all over, anyway.

It will be interesting to see what happens next....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 02, 2017, 07:16:56 AM
Quote from: Que on December 02, 2017, 02:54:03 AM
I have a hunch this Tory government might fall before this is all over, anyway.

It will be interesting to see what happens next....

Q

I don't recall a moment of greater political chaos than the present time.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 02, 2017, 08:23:18 AM
On April 1st, 2018 Theresa May will announce to parliament: "I have decided that Britain will not, after all, leave the EU. It is a ridiculous idea, and one that if put into action, seems likely to destroy our economy and the lives of many of our citizens and their families, not to say our academic institutions, our efforts to preserve our ecology and climate and much else of value besides.

My government's more extreme Brexiters are frankly delusional in their beliefs about the benefits of leaving the EU and the myriad complications of doing so, not least the imperiling of 30 years of peaceful cooperation in Ireland. President Trump, it is clear, will not offer the UK any sort of favourable trade deal and, however much some of us may not like the EU, we must stay within it and continue to receive the considerable benefits of membership of what is a very successful trading bloc. Our grievances and differences with the EU must be worked out in partnership with them as it continues to evolve.

I have presided over the most inept and shambolic period of government that this country has experienced in modern times. It is clear that I must now resign, and dissolve this government lest our country come to further grief under the leadership of a fanatical Brexiteer. It is time for Her Majesty's loyal opposition to take the reigns of power*.

As for me, having finally realised that I have no principles and come to terms with my own robotic but somehow also indecisive ineptitude, I shall be taking poison seeking political asylum in Maidenhead. Farewell!

*Such as that now is.


Not!  ::)

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 02, 2017, 09:17:41 AM
Dammit Turbot, you got me all cheered up then!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Scion7 on December 02, 2017, 09:39:18 AM
"Steady!  Steady!   Steady!"

All will be well at home, the Royal Navy will be rebuilt, then we can get down to some serious empire building again.
I'd recommend starting with Holland, but by that time the bloody country will be mostly underwater again . . .
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 02, 2017, 09:40:14 AM
^^^ It was never plausible, nodogen. Too decisive, and too many principles.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on December 02, 2017, 10:10:18 AM
Quote from: Scion7 on December 02, 2017, 09:39:18 AMI'd recommend starting with Holland
We'll repeat the raid on Chatham and bring new war trophies to the Rijksmuseum! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raid_on_the_Medway
(https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/images/spiegel-royal-charles.jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 02, 2017, 11:24:00 AM
Quote from: Turbot nouveaux on December 02, 2017, 09:40:14 AM
^^^ It was never plausible, nodogen. Too decisive, and too many principles.

I should have noticed the "April 1st" ....
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 02, 2017, 12:32:06 PM
Quote from: Christo on December 02, 2017, 10:10:18 AM
We'll repeat the raid on Chatham and bring new war trophies to the Rijksmuseum! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raid_on_the_Medway
(https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/images/spiegel-royal-charles.jpg)

What an outrage! This must be returned by the Rijksmuseum to Britain immediately as part of the Brexit divorce bill.
I blame Charles II whom was apparently chasing a bluebottle round his palace whilst the Dutch were invading the Medway. Henry V would have been turning in his grave.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on December 04, 2017, 04:08:02 AM
Not yet confirmed, but:

"May has agreed to 'no regulatory divergence' in the island of Ireland. Means a deal today now very likely. But huge implications for future of UK. And (once again) a near total British climbdown. #brexit"
https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/937663543855538176

"If Northern Ireland effectively gets to stay in Single Market and Customs Union, Scotland likely to demand the same. Though Edinburgh has no one to wield a veto in Brussels."
https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/937664570348507137

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 04, 2017, 04:53:23 AM
Quote from: Turner on December 04, 2017, 04:08:02 AM
Not yet confirmed, but:

"May has agreed to 'no regulatory divergence' in the island of Ireland. Means a deal today now very likely. But huge implications for future of UK. And (once again) a near total British climbdown. #brexit"
https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/937663543855538176

"If Northern Ireland effectively gets to stay in Single Market and Customs Union, Scotland likely to demand the same. Though Edinburgh has no one to wield a veto in Brussels."
https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/937664570348507137

Yes, that seems to be the case. I'm no admirer of Tony Blair but I totally agree with him on Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 04, 2017, 06:50:12 AM
Quote from: Turner on December 04, 2017, 04:08:02 AM
Not yet confirmed, but:

"May has agreed to 'no regulatory divergence' in the island of Ireland. Means a deal today now very likely. But huge implications for future of UK. And (once again) a near total British climbdown. #brexit"
https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/937663543855538176


Yes, quite. Arlene Foster and the DUP have said straight away that they're not happy with this.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on December 04, 2017, 02:34:51 PM
Quote from: vandermolen on December 02, 2017, 12:32:06 PMHenry V would have been turning in his grave.
Well, two weeks ago you heard Walton's reading of this episode - did he actually make Henry V spinning in his grave?  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 04, 2017, 11:20:10 PM
So, negotiations on Northern Ireland went the only way I saw possible: towards territorial regulatory alignment (EU conformity). Basically replicating internal market conditions.

And predictably the DUP objected to this "one country, two systems" solution. The "Hong Kong option", so to speak.

What I didn't expect was Scotland and Wales, and even the mayor of London, banging on the door demanding the same!  ???

But it does make sense from their point of view. What about a Brexit exclusively for "Little England"?  :D Seems to suit everybody's needs.... ::)

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/9d4fc46aab2e3ed3ce927c1cbb5fe2af62199ede/28_16_4810_3231/master/4810.jpg?w=940&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=6d3c60ed8c7628b05822e79e655419d3)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 04, 2017, 11:22:59 PM
I guess I'm  not the only one who sees parallels with the 1930's.....

(http://media.gettyimages.com/photos/neville-chamberlain-seen-here-at-heston-airport-after-returning-from-picture-id591972954)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 04, 2017, 11:39:49 PM
QuoteAnd predictably the DUP objected to this "one country, two systems" solution. The "Hong Kong option", so to speak.
The UK cannot be kept hostage by the DUP.  Eventually, the agreement will go through.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on December 04, 2017, 11:43:36 PM
Ed Milliband, official tweet ~statement:"What an absolutely ludicrous, incompetent, absurd, make it up as you go along, couldn't run a piss up in a brewery bunch of jokers there are running the government at the most critical time in a generation for the country."

https://twitter.com/Ed_Miliband/status/937960558170689537
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 04, 2017, 11:55:30 PM
Quote from: Turner on December 04, 2017, 11:43:36 PM
Ed Milliband, official tweet ~statement:"What an absolutely ludicrous, incompetent, absurd, make it up as you go along, couldn't run a piss up in a brewery bunch of jokers there are running the government at the most critical time in a generation for the country."

https://twitter.com/Ed_Miliband/status/937960558170689537

After the referendum David Cameron was called the worst prime minister after Neville Chamberlain, but we now know better....  ::)

Holding another election and loosing her majority in parliament without the support of the DUP, nailed the fate of May's government IMO. It will fall soon, I think..

Q


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 05, 2017, 01:05:06 AM
Quote from: Que on December 04, 2017, 11:55:30 PM
After the referendum David Cameron was called the worst prime minister after Neville Chamberlain, but we now know better....  ::)

Holding another election and loosing her majority in parliament without the support of the DUP, nailed the fate of May's government IMO. It will fall soon, I think..

Q

I think that Chamberlain has been dealt with unfairly by history. He made some foolish statements 'Peace in our time', 'Hitler's missed the bus' (just before the disastrous Norway campaign), however, because of him Britain was united with its then Empire (other than the Irish Free State) when war came and was much better prepared - the period of 'appeasement' had not been wasted in terms of building up aircraft in particular and when war came in 1939 it was clear to everyone who was to blame. This would not have been the case in 1938 after Hitler had maintained that the Sudetenland was his 'last territorial claim in Europe'. This does not mean that I support the appeasement policy (which involved a terrible betrayal of Czechoslovakia) but that I can understand, from a British point of view, why it was followed.

I think there are other candidates for worst Prime Minister, including Bonar Law (largely responsible for troubles in Ireland), Tony Blair re:Iraq although I totally agree with him on Brexit. Cameron would have been much more highly rated without the disastrous IMHO referendum decision.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 05, 2017, 04:07:24 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on December 05, 2017, 01:05:06 AM
I think that Chamberlain has been dealt with unfairly by history. He made some foolish statements 'Peace in our time', 'Hitler's missed the bus' (just before the disastrous Norway campaign), however, because of him Britain was united with its then Empire (other than the Irish Free State) when war came and was much better prepared - the period of 'appeasement' had not been wasted in terms of building up aircraft in particular and when war came in 1939 it was clear to everyone who was to blame. This would not have been the case in 1938 after Hitler had maintained that the Sudetenland was his 'last territorial claim in Europe'. This does not mean that I support the appeasement policy (which involved a terrible betrayal of Czechoslovakia) but that I can understand, from a British point of view, why it was followed.

I think there are other candidates for worst Prime Minister, including Bonar Law (largely responsible for troubles in Ireland), Tony Blair re:Iraq although I totally agree with him on Brexit. Cameron would have been much more highly rated without the disastrous IMHO referendum decision.

I agree the judgment on Chamberlain is too harsh.
However, Great Britain was not alone in using the extra time for a (continued) military build up.... In hindsight Hitler was bluffing...he wasn't ready either.
This means that the sacrifice of Tjechoslovakya was unnecessary and gave Hitler a strategic advantage, and fed his feelings of invincibility.

Blair's name, however, will probably go down in history in infamy, now the consequences of his support for Bush' folly grow worse and worse....

May's historical fame will depend on the outcome of this Brexit drama.
I for one never understood why someone who voted remain is willing to lead the country into the abyss...
Shows a lack of back bone.... Fortunately she is being payed back in full for her spinelessness.

Q

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on December 05, 2017, 04:10:06 AM
At any given time, the worst prime-minister in the history of any country with a parliamentary system is yet to come.  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 05, 2017, 04:57:35 AM
Quote from: Que on December 04, 2017, 11:20:10 PM
So, negotiations on Northern Ireland went the only way I saw possible: towards territorial regulatory alignment (EU conformity). Basically replicating internal market conditions.

And predictably the DUP objected to this "one country, two systems" solution. The "Hong Kong option", so to speak.

Even if the DUP hadn't thrown a spanner in the works, the problem which you mentioned earlier would still have been there, namely that:

QuoteIf Ireland and NI had an open border while NI was outside of the EU, all imports would enter the EU through that border to avoid import duties and checks on EU health & safety standards. Once goods enter the EU customs union, they can freely circulate.

The proposed "regulatory alignment" might have solved that problem for Northern Ireland, but it wouldn't solve it for goods coming from the the rest of the UK. Why would the EU allow goods from England, Scotland and Wales to get round EU import duties and checks on health and safety standards by using an open border in Ireland? Even if a fudge is agreed in the next few days that everyone can live with for now, that doesn't resolve the problem, it just kicks it into the trade talks, and once there it can only be fudged for so long: sooner or later a definite decision will have to be made.

One way round this which is being mentioned on the lunchtime news is for regulatory alignment to apply to the whole of the UK. That would answer the DUP's objection of not treating NI differently to the rest of the UK, but I still don't see how it would work: that alignment might be wide-ranging enough that it effectively amounts to staying in the customs union and single market in all but name. Since the UK government has ruled out membership of both, it would be very hard for them to argue for a scenario in which we are technically outside both but in practice effectively still in. It would also enrage the Brexit fanatics on the Tory backbenches, and probably those in the cabinet like Fox and Gove, who might well resign. For them, the whole point of Brexit is to get rid of that EU "red tape" which is "holding us back". They want regulatory divergence (or to put it another way, a race to the bottom) and plenty of it, and that's not going to happen if we're still aligning our regulations to those of the customs union and single market.

On the other hand, regulatory alignment might be restricted to just a few specific, limited areas, just enough to keep an open border in Ireland but nowhere near a comprehensive agreement. Alignment thus limited would no longer amount to staying in the customs union and single market in all but name, but that would just take us back to the problem of the UK using an open border in Ireland to get round EU duties and regulation checks: there is no reason to think the EU will allow that to happen, in which case, what then?

QuoteWhat I didn't expect was Scotland and Wales, and even the mayor of London, banging on the door demanding the same!  ???

Nicola Sturgeon has been pushing the idea of Scotland staying in the single market since the referendum. The UK government has always dismissed the idea of different parts of the UK having different arrangements with the EU as impractical, but they can hardly say that now, not when they've conceded that it could work for NI.

What a triumph this is turning out to be for May: shafted by the party she bunged a billion quid, which she only needed to do because of an election she didn't need to call, designed to give her a mandate which she now cannot claim to have. Genius.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 05, 2017, 07:06:06 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on December 05, 2017, 04:57:35 AM
It would also enrage the Brexit fanatics on the Tory backbenches, and probably those in the cabinet like Fox and Gove, who might well resign. For them, the whole point of Brexit is to get rid of that EU "red tape" which is "holding us back". They want regulatory divergence (or to put it another way, a race to the bottom) and plenty of it...


Which would be an excellent outcome. The spineless Mrs May needs to stand up to these deluded neoliberal extremists.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 05, 2017, 07:13:53 AM
We have not one but two unelected PMs: May and Foster. One of them will have to go...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 05, 2017, 07:42:40 AM
On a personal note, I'm looking forward to my next local party get together. We have an honorary guest and speaker by the name of Keir Starmer. 😊

(Unless he's too busy to attend!)

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 05, 2017, 09:41:19 AM
Quote from: Que on December 05, 2017, 04:07:24 AM
I agree the judgment on Chamberlain is too harsh.
However, Great Britain was not alone in using the extra time for a (continued) military build up.... In hindsight Hitler was bluffing...he wasn't ready either.
This means that the sacrifice of Tjechoslovakya was unnecessary and gave Hitler a strategic advantage, and fed his feelings of invincibility.

Blair's name, however, will probably go down in history in infamy, now the consequences of his support for Bush' folly grow worse and worse....

May's historical fame will depend on the outcome of this Brexit drama.
I for one never understood why someone who voted remain is willing to lead the country into the abyss...
Shows a lack of back bone.... Fortunately she is being payed back in full for her spinelessness.

Q

Largely agree with you although Britain was so poorly prepared for War in 1938 that by the law of 'Diminishing Marginal Utilities' (is that right? It's a long time since I got a 'D' at A-Level Economics) Britain made better use of the time. I know there is an argument that if Britain stood firm in support of the Czechs the German High Command were prepared to overthrow Hitler to prevent war in September 1938 but recent evidence suggests that this was unlikely.

On a separate point why did May not consult the DUP before going to Bruxelles? (I prefer that spelling).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 05, 2017, 10:26:24 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on December 05, 2017, 09:41:19 AM

On a separate point why did May not consult the DUP before going to Bruxelles? (I prefer that spelling).

Well this is the person who decided it was a good idea to call a general election. 🤔

To be fair, in hindsight I thought it was a good decision. 😉

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 05, 2017, 10:29:25 AM
Quote from: nodogen on December 05, 2017, 10:26:24 AM

To be fair, in hindsight I thought it was a good decision. 😉

Works out perfectly!  :laugh:
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on December 05, 2017, 11:49:47 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on December 05, 2017, 09:41:19 AMgoing to Bruxelles? (I prefer that spelling).
Traitor!  :D Brussel was the cradle of the Dutch language, especially when it turned into a European Renaissance centre around the court of Charles V. (Only when the new Belgian Kingdom preferred French as the language of its elite, the majority of Brusselaars became French-speaking in the late 19th Century. Nowadays the native language is spoken by only 10 percent.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 05, 2017, 11:52:46 AM
"The bottom line is that the May government is facing an impossible task," said Sarvamaa, adding that promises made to British voters during the referendum campaign and before June's snap election could not be kept. The government was in "an ever-worsening, deteriorating cycle," he said.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/05/we-cant-go-on-like-this-mood-of-resignation-in-eu-as-brexit-talks-stutter      (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/05/we-cant-go-on-like-this-mood-of-resignation-in-eu-as-brexit-talks-stutter)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 05, 2017, 01:46:32 PM
Quote from: Christo on December 05, 2017, 11:49:47 AM
Traitor!  :D Brussel was the cradle of the Dutch language, especially when it turned into a European Renaissance centre around the court of Charles V. (Only when the new Belgian Kingdom preferred French as the language of its elite, the majority of Brusselaars became French-speaking in the late 19th Century. Nowadays the native language is spoken by only 10 percent.
Looks better on paper I think. Anyway you are deflecting to draw attention away from that precious artefact that you Dutch stole from Charles II.  :o
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 05, 2017, 04:03:21 PM
Quote from: Turbot nouveaux on December 05, 2017, 07:06:06 AM

Which would be an excellent outcome. The spineless Mrs May needs to stand up to these deluded neoliberal extremists.

It would indeed be an excellent outcome, but as you say, May is utterly spineless, which means she wants to avoid confronting them at all costs. Her problem is that she will have to make a decision sooner or later whether she likes it or not. David Davis is trying to sell the idea of "regulatory alignment" for the whole of the UK and EU to his party on the grounds that "alignment isn't the same thing as harmonisation". Well, that's technically true. But there is not a snowball's chance in hell of the EU agreeing to this idea unless the degree of alignment between UK and EU regulations is very high. They aren't going to agree to an open border and "frictionless trade" if the differences between UK and EU regulatory regimes are at all significant, because if there are significant differences then the two regimes are, by definition, not aligned - they are divergent. So the most Davis can argue is that "regulatory alignment" means we don't have to have regulations and standards which are 100% identical to those of the customs union and single market - we can have a system which is very slightly different, but not very much.

That isn't going to appease the Brexit ultras. They want a bonfire of EU "red tape" to "set Britain free". They can't achieve that if we've already agreed to have a regulatory system only minimally different to the EU. And indeed, our old friend Jacob Rees Mogg is already unhappy about it, as this article mentions:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/05/uk-brexit-team-is-walking-a-tightrope-to-reach-first-phase-deal (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/05/uk-brexit-team-is-walking-a-tightrope-to-reach-first-phase-deal)   

According to the article, "This brought instant spluttering from Conservative backbenchers, with Jacob Rees-Mogg demanding "indelible red lines" on the principle of escaping Brussels regulation, not cleaving closer to it."

So May has to decide: does she confront the Brexit fanatics with the reality that their hard Brexit is an undeliverable fantasy, or does she cave in to them and make the ruinous prospect of crashing out with no deal that much more likely?

Of course, if Davis means that regulatory alignment will only apply to a few specific areas necessary to sort out the NI problem then presumably there will be a great many areas of regulation in which we are not aligned with the EU. That would please Rees Mogg and co, but it just takes us back to the problem mentioned earlier: why would the EU let the UK use an open border in Ireland as a back door into the single market and customs union as a way of avoiding EU duties and regulatory checks?

However reluctant she may be to acknowledge it, May is going to have to jump one way or the other, and the choice depends on whether she puts country or party first. If the former, she'll tell the Brexit headbangers on her backbenches (and cabinet) to sod off and try to negotiate something that at least mitigates the worst of the damage. If the latter, she'll cave in to said headbangers, and then try to pin the blame for the ensuing chaos on the EU in the hope that the tactic of blaming dastardly Johnny Foreigner does the trick. You know the drill, "standing up for Britain" against an "unreasonable and intransigent EU", that kind of thing. The likes of the Mail and the Express would love it.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: kishnevi on December 05, 2017, 05:32:08 PM
The Brexiteers do have a point: regulatory alignment seems to be the worst of all worlds: to keep all the negatives of EU membership but not have the benefits. Especially if much of the impulse stems from the belief that Brussels overregulates, it means the whole exercise was pointless or worse....
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 06, 2017, 03:53:49 AM
David Davis admits UK Government has not done Brexit impact assessments for different economic sectors

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-impact-assessments-uk-economy-sectors-industry-eu-withdrawal-mps-select-committee-a8094481.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-impact-assessments-uk-economy-sectors-industry-eu-withdrawal-mps-select-committee-a8094481.html)

The 58 sectorial reports of the UK government never existed !!!  God, is this a dream ?  more like a nightmare !!

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 06, 2017, 04:08:15 AM
Quote from: Spineur on December 06, 2017, 03:53:49 AM
David Davis admits UK Government has not done Brexit impact assessments for different economic sectors

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-impact-assessments-uk-economy-sectors-industry-eu-withdrawal-mps-select-committee-a8094481.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-impact-assessments-uk-economy-sectors-industry-eu-withdrawal-mps-select-committee-a8094481.html)

The 58 sectorial reports of the UK government never existed !!!  God, is this a dream ?  more like a nightmare !!

It gets more and more shambolic.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 06, 2017, 05:36:07 AM
When I was a lad the tories called themselves the natural party of government. Ho ho.

Every large organisation in Britain will have carried out an assessment of what Brexit may mean for them. But not the government apparently...

Davis is either lying now or was lying before. If May wasn't so weak she'd sack him. Bercow will soon be confirming Davis is in contempt of parliament.

Jeez, I'm living in a banana republic moving rapidly towards the status of a failed state.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 06, 2017, 05:49:46 AM
Quote from: nodogen on December 06, 2017, 05:36:07 AM
When I was a lad the tories called themselves the natural party of government. Ho ho.

Every large organisation in Britain will have carried out an assessment of what Brexit may mean for them. But not the government apparently...

Davis is either lying now or was lying before. If May wasn't so weak she'd sack him. Bercow will soon be confirming Davis is in contempt of parliament.

Jeez, I'm living in a banana republic moving rapidly towards the status of a failed state.


There are rumours around, apparently originating from Whitehall insiders, that the impact assessments were done but were very negative. No doubt Davis is keen that those do not see the light of day...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 06, 2017, 06:04:21 AM
Quote from: Jeffrey Smith on December 05, 2017, 05:32:08 PM
The Brexiteers do have a point: regulatory alignment seems to be the worst of all worlds: to keep all the negatives of EU membership but not have the benefits. Especially if much of the impulse stems from the belief that Brussels overregulates, it means the whole exercise was pointless or worse....

We wouldn't have the influence over EU regulations that we currently have and we'd still have to stick to them (or something very similar). So it's obviously not ideal. But a scenario which more or less replicates our single market membership would hopefully mitigate the worst of the economic damage. The alternative being pushed by the hard Brexiteers is to walk out of the negotiations with the EU and go to WTO rules while we wait for the rest of the world to rush to our door to offer us fantastic new trade deals on terms which favour us. The likes of Fox and Paterson may believe this delusional drivel, but outside the hard Brexit bubble the general view is that it would cause enormous damage. Given the choice between that or a Norway-type arrangement, I'd take the latter in a heartbeat.

Of course, the option that makes most sense is to stay in the EU, where we have the benefits of single market membership and influence over the regulations, but that won't happen unless or until there is clear evidence of a decisive swing in public opinion against Brexit, and that means leave voters switching. That may well happen as the Brexiteers' promises continue to unravel, but it hasn't happened yet, nothing like enough anyway.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 06, 2017, 08:33:20 AM
Quote from: Turbot nouveaux on December 06, 2017, 05:49:46 AM

There are rumours around, apparently originating from Whitehall insiders, that the impact assessments were done but were very negative. No doubt Davis is keen that those do not see the light of day...

All things considered, I'm sure they have been done.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 06, 2017, 08:58:42 AM
Just to be clear: (as per June of this year, Davis on the Andrew Marr Show) there are 127 analyses that have not been done. Not 126. Not 128. But precisely 127.

Not done.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 06, 2017, 09:07:21 AM
Quote from: nodogen on December 06, 2017, 08:58:42 AM
Just to be clear: (as per June of this year, Davis on the Andrew Marr Show) there are 127 analyses that have not been done. Not 126. Not 128. But precisely 127.

Not done.

Davis also told the Brexit select committee that the assessments went into "excruciating detail". Now they apparently don't exist.

The best comment I've seen on this is that Davis' excuse can be summarised as "the dog would have eaten my homework, if I'd done it. And if I had a dog."

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 06, 2017, 01:12:28 PM
Quote from: nodogen on December 06, 2017, 05:36:07 AMEvery large organisation in Britain will have carried out an assessment of what Brexit may mean for them. But not the government apparently...

Davis said that there's no point in trying to produce forecasts on the economic impact of Brexit, because the changes will be so huge that the impact is impossible to forecast. In which case, you have to wonder just what the basis is for the claims from Brexiteers (of whom Davis is one) that Brexit will make us more economically prosperous.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 06, 2017, 03:49:13 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on December 06, 2017, 01:12:28 PM
Davis said that there's no point in trying to produce forecasts on the economic impact of Brexit, because the changes will be so huge that the impact is impossible to forecast. In which case, you have to wonder just what the basis is for the claims from Brexiteers (of whom Davis is one) that Brexit will make us more economically prosperous.


They are entirely bogus. The ultra-brexiteers are dreaming of a deregulated neo-liberal fantasy where workers have no rights and the rich pay little or no tax. And who do Michael Gove and Boris Johnson work for*?

*Answer: A very rich man who would like to operate his business in a deregulated jurisdiction and pay less tax.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 06, 2017, 11:07:24 PM
Quote from: Turbot nouveaux on December 06, 2017, 03:49:13 PM

*Answer: A very rich man who would like to operate his business in a deregulated jurisdiction and pay less tax.

Sir James Dyson (http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/sir-james-dyson-brexit_uk_5a08336fe4b01d21c83eff64) ?  ::)

I guess if you'd want the UK turn into a society like the US, Brexit is the perfect way to go...

But what is missing in that grand scheme is the economic and political power the US has.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on December 07, 2017, 12:25:26 AM
Quote from: Que on December 06, 2017, 11:07:24 PM
But what is missing in that grand scheme is the economic and political power the US has.

What will be the UK's undoing is their belief that they still are a great Power.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 07, 2017, 03:32:26 PM
Quote from: The new erato on December 07, 2017, 12:25:26 AM
What will be the UK's undoing is their belief that they still are a great Power.

The Brexiteers' delusional horseshit inspiring vision of "buccaneering Britain" hasn't been referred to as Empire 2.0 for nothing.

Arch-Brexiteer Bernard Jenkin was on tonight's Question Time, during which he claimed that "most countries in the world aren't members of the EU and do just fine" - thus implying that those countries are going it alone. Apparently he isn't aware of other regional trading blocs around the world, or that most countries are members of one of them.

Also notable was the insistence of Jenkin, audience members and another right wing panellist that we should all "be optimistic" about Brexit. There still seems to be this persistent belief that if we all just screw our eyes up really tight and just believe hard enough, then Brexit will be great. So when it turns out to be a shitshow, the blame will no doubt be directed at us heretics on the other side of the argument for failing to genuflect at the altar of Brexit with sufficient fervour. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 07, 2017, 10:40:15 PM
UK-EU deal announced.  The published part on Northern Ireland seems like a smoke and mirror trick probably because of DUP.  I would not be surprised if there was a secret annex to be made public at the end of the process.
The GPB is going to rise.  My guess is that Theresa May government just saved itself.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on December 07, 2017, 10:41:26 PM
A 'preliminary agreement' now settled.

Detailed content:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/joint_report.pdf

Includes, concerning Northern Ireland:
"49. The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements. The United Kingdom's intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship. Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the allisland economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement"
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 07, 2017, 11:13:04 PM
Quote from: Spineur on December 07, 2017, 10:40:15 PM
UK-EU deal announced.  The published part on Northern Ireland seems like a smoke and mirror trick probably because of DUP.  I would not be surprised if there was a secret annex to be made public at the end of the process.
The GPB is going to rise.  My guess is that Theresa May government just saved itself.

Pardon my ignorance, but what is "GPB" ?

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 07, 2017, 11:32:24 PM
Quote from: nodogen on December 07, 2017, 11:13:04 PM
Pardon my ignorance, but what is "GPB" ?
Sorry GBP british pound up 0.5% against euro this morning.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 07, 2017, 11:39:06 PM
Quote from: nodogen on December 07, 2017, 11:13:04 PM
Pardconditions ignorance, but what is "GPB" ?

I assume GBP was meant (Pouns sterling)

Anyway, "full alignment" sounds like replicating internal market and customs union conditions.
On the other hand  I understand this should not impede on trade with the rest of the UK, with the DUP insisting there will be no economic border in the Irish Sea.

I suspect a fudge to be able to move one the fase of negotiations on the transition deal.
As long as the UK stays in the customs union and the internal market - during transition or indefinitely - no problem will arise.
But when a hard Brexit occurs, the Northern Ireland issue will come back with a vengeance.....

The text of the deal seems to be designed to provide leverage for the EU (and Ireland) in that situation.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 08, 2017, 02:31:54 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on December 07, 2017, 03:32:26 PM
The Brexiteers' delusional horseshit inspiring vision of "buccaneering Britain" hasn't been referred to as Empire 2.0 for nothing.

Arch-Brexiteer Bernard Jenkin was on tonight's Question Time, during which he claimed that "most countries in the world aren't members of the EU and do just fine" - thus implying that those countries are going it alone. Apparently he isn't aware of other regional trading blocs around the world, or that most countries are members of one of them.

Also notable was the insistence of Jenkin, audience members and another right wing panellist that we should all "be optimistic" about Brexit. There still seems to be this persistent belief that if we all just screw our eyes up really tight and just believe hard enough, then Brexit will be great. So when it turns out to be a shitshow, the blame will no doubt be directed at us heretics on the other side of the argument for failing to genuflect at the altar of Brexit with sufficient fervour.


Careful now - you're 'Talking Britain Down'TM again here. When it all goes wrong we'll know who to blame.  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 08, 2017, 03:14:50 AM
Quote from: Spineur on December 07, 2017, 11:32:24 PM
Sorry GBP british pound up 0.5% against euro this morning.

Lord, I said I was ignorant.


In the glorious days ahead, when we have left the EU, we People of Albion shall revert to the groat.


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 08, 2017, 03:16:45 AM
Quote from: Que on December 07, 2017, 11:39:06 PM
I assume GBP was meant (Pouns sterling)

Anyway, "full alignment" sounds like replicating internal market and customs union conditions.
On the other hand  I understand this should not impede on trade with the rest of the UK, with the DUP insisting there will be no economic border in the Irish Sea.

I suspect a fudge to be able to move one the fase of negotiations on the transition deal.
As long as the UK stays in the customs union and the internal market - during transition or indefinitely - no problem will arise.
But when a hard Brexit occurs, the Northern Ireland issue will come back with a vengeance.....

The text of the deal seems to be designed to provide leverage for the EU (and Ireland) in that situation.

Q

And what might Scotland and Wales make of all this?

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 08, 2017, 03:37:43 AM
According to Le Monde, Theresa May did make a lot of concessions.  The reaction of the hard-core brexiters could be very negative.  The agreement on Northern Island is described as "constructive ambiguity".  The problem is postponed to the "greek calendars", which may indeed serve the EU purposes in the end.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 08, 2017, 05:17:11 AM
Quote from: Que on December 07, 2017, 11:39:06 PM
I assume GBP was meant (Pouns sterling)

Anyway, "full alignment" sounds like replicating internal market and customs union conditions.
On the other hand  I understand this should not impede on trade with the rest of the UK, with the DUP insisting there will be no economic border in the Irish Sea.

I suspect a fudge to be able to move one the fase of negotiations on the transition deal.
As long as the UK stays in the customs union and the internal market - during transition or indefinitely - no problem will arise.
But when a hard Brexit occurs, the Northern Ireland issue will come back with a vengeance.....

The text of the deal seems to be designed to provide leverage for the EU (and Ireland) in that situation.

Q

Exactly right. They've fudged it for now in order to move on to the trade talks, and as long as we agree to more or less replicate single market and customs union regulations the border won't be a problem. But if we say that at some point in the future that will no longer apply, and a significant degree of regulatory divergence is therefore a distinct possibility - indeed, if the Brexit ultras get their way we'll get divergence on steroids - then the border problem will reassert itself. Even if alignment were to be maintained in the limited areas specific to cross-border trade in Ireland, significant divergence in other areas means the EU will want to know that goods entering the EU from anywhere in the UK - not just NI - meet EU regulatory standards. If the Brexiteers think the EU will just sit back and allow the UK to get round those checks by using an open border in Ireland as a back door into the customs union and single market they're in for a shock. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 08, 2017, 05:22:12 AM
Quote from: Turbot nouveaux on December 08, 2017, 02:31:54 AM

Careful now - you're 'Talking Britain Down'TM again here. When it all goes wrong we'll know who to blame.  ::)

You're quite right. I repent of my sinful ways, and undertake to purge my mind of these base heretical thoughts by performing a daily ritual of self-flagellation while praying fervently before an icon of Jacob Rees-Mogg.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 08, 2017, 10:24:21 PM
Expats are not happy....

EU nationals can stay in the UK, but only after under certain conditions and restrictions.
And the protection of their rights falls under the jurisdiction of the EU Court of Justice for only 8 years.

I can already tell you now that the European Parliament is not going to accept this, and that the EU negotiators very well know this.....  ::)

Both EU and UK expats will become "land locked" - they will loose their rights of residence after more than 5 years of absence.
And of course UK can't resettle elsewhere in the EU freely as before.

The Tories tell us the rights of EU citizens are now secure. It's a lie (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/08/eu-citizens-rights-brexit-bargaining-chips)

British citizens living in EU say Theresa May has 'sold them down the river' for deal (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-citizens-rights-frontier-workers-theresa-may-deal-northern-ireland-british-in-europe-a8100116.html)




On the other hand anybody born in Northern Ireland is entitled to Irish citizenship and can therefore retain or acquire full EU citizenship.

Brexit: Northern Irish will be able to remain EU citizens under deal.Two sides agreed the passport deal would continue after Brexit (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-keep-eu-citizenship-irish-border-a8099176.html)

Q


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 08, 2017, 10:42:21 PM
I have read the complains but find them overblown.  EU citizens living in the UK will still be able to relocate their families.  Eventually UK common law will apply to them.  I find this quite normal as it is the country they live in.  As far as the UK citizens in the EU the issue is wether they will keep the free mobility within the 27 member states.   At this point this right isnt clearly spelled out.  But after all, they can apply for EU citizenship if they want to.

The Irish part is on the other hand quite foggy at this stage and everybody is reading what they want.  At this point nothing is settled and depending on how the future talks evolve the irish deal will evolve.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on December 09, 2017, 04:49:29 AM
Quote from: Spineur on December 08, 2017, 03:37:43 AM
According to Le Monde, Theresa May did make a lot of concessions.  The reaction of the hard-core brexiters could be very negative.  The agreement on Northern Island is described as "constructive ambiguity".  The problem is postponed to the "greek calendars", which may indeed serve the EU purposes in the end.


reporter aux calendes greques does not have a direct english equivalent. But the context you put it in makes it clear, though. I had to look up for the etymology of calendes, and found out it's not really clear cut (etruscan? Latin?).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 09, 2017, 07:03:12 AM
Quote from: André on December 09, 2017, 04:49:29 AM

reporter aux calendes greques does not have a direct english equivalent. But the context you put it in makes it clear, though. I had to look up for the etymology of calendes, and found out it's not really clear cut (etruscan? Latin?).
Wiki says Etruscan, and the latin spelling Kalendae with a K seems to support this root.  French has fewer words than english but uses lots of expressions, which are difficult to translate, like this one.

For the Irish and probably also the British, this article

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/1209/926089-brexit-negotiations/ (https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/1209/926089-brexit-negotiations/)

recounts the final turns of events in the UK-EU negotiations around the northern island issue.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on December 09, 2017, 08:08:13 AM
it was already a Latin saying "ad Kalendas Graecas" meaning in the indefinite future or often "never" because the Kalendae (first day of the month, the more famous Ides (of March) were in the middle) was only a feature of the Roman calendar, not of the Greek.
In German we say (somewhat old-fashioned) "am Sankt-Nimmerleins-Tag" with a made-up Saint's day ("Saint Never's Day"), unless we are old-fashioned and really well-educated, than it's "ad Kalendas Graecas".
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on December 09, 2017, 12:03:11 PM
Quote from: Jo498 on December 09, 2017, 08:08:13 AM
In German we say (somewhat old-fashioned) "am Sankt-Nimmerleins-Tag" with a made-up Saint's day ("Saint Never's Day"), unless we are old-fashioned and really well-educated, than it's "ad Kalendas Graecas".

In Romanian it's either "la calendele greceşti" (literal translation of "ad Kalendas Graecas"), or --- and this is far more frequently used --- "la Paştele cailor" (literal English translation: "on the Easter Day of the horses").
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on December 09, 2017, 12:43:42 PM
Interestingly, I never encountered a German translation of "ad Kalendas Graecas". The few people (typically Latin teachers and the like) who would use the expression at all would use the Latin. I guess there are a few more sayings, like "when Christmas and Easter fall on the same day" or sth. like that.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: North Star on December 09, 2017, 01:37:00 PM
"When pigs fly"
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 09, 2017, 01:54:37 PM
Now the first skirmishes are behind us, everybody is looking ahead... and concerns seem to be all around.

Global powers lobby to stop special Brexit deal for UK (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/09/global-powers-lobby-to-stop-special-brexit-deal-for-uk)

I believe the appropriate term is a British invention: "fair play"....

But not to worry - my bets are on a transition deal that keeps the UK witin the customs union and the internal market, and will turn out to last indefinitely.... 8)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Gurn Blanston on December 09, 2017, 01:59:14 PM
Well, to get back to speaking plain English, I read this pithy little summary today. Agree or disagree, Brits?

Brexit negotiations, to date:
• Same regulations
• Same open borders
• Same European courts
• Same single market
• Same payments to EU

But:
• Lost all say in EU rules
• Squandered 1000's of jobs
• Knocked 18% off the pound
• Risked the Union
• Spent £50 billion

Gotta say, I don't see where you could be worse off even if Tr**p was running it. Oh, wait: maybe you would be in a nuclear standoff with Germany & France, hadn't thought about that...  so then, win::win!

8)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 09, 2017, 02:48:19 PM
I am not brit, but sort of agree with you.
In fact many people, including myself saw the northern ireland settlement as a temporary one - kicking the can down the road (the proper translation of the greek Kalendae reference) but it may be the mother of all concessions: the only way to put it into effect is to keep the UK in the custom union with free movement of people.
EU officials describe the NI settlement as creative ambiguity as it is a mean to reach their long term goal which boils down to your matter of fact summary.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 09, 2017, 03:03:57 PM
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on December 09, 2017, 01:59:14 PM
Well, to get back to speaking plain English, I read this pithy little summary today. Agree or disagree, Brits?

Brexit negotiations, to date:
• Same regulations
• Same open borders
• Same European courts
• Same single market
• Same payments to EU

But:
• Lost all say in EU rules
• Squandered 1000's of jobs
• Knocked 18% off the pound
• Risked the Union
• Spent £50 billion


8)

Well, it's not as pithy as I'd put it.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 09, 2017, 03:30:39 PM
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on December 09, 2017, 01:59:14 PM
Well, to get back to speaking plain English, I read this pithy little summary today. Agree or disagree, Brits?

Brexit negotiations, to date:
• Same regulations
• Same open borders
• Same European courts
• Same single market
• Same payments to EU

But:
• Lost all say in EU rules
• Squandered 1000's of jobs
• Knocked 18% off the pound
• Risked the Union
• Spent £50 billion

Gotta say, I don't see where you could be worse off even if Tr**p was running it. Oh, wait: maybe you would be in a nuclear standoff with Germany & France, hadn't thought about that...  so then, win::win!

8)

That seems to be pretty much where we are. The Brexiteers may say that leaving the single market and customs union means we can strike our own trade deals with other countries, but I'm not sure how that works, given the commitment to remain aligned with the single market and customs union regulations. To take just one example which has had a fair bit of media attention on this side of the pond: US regulations allow the sale of chlorinated chicken, which is banned in the EU. If we're committed to sticking closely to EU rules, does the fact that we would be technically outside the customs union and single market mean we could sign a trade deal with the US which includes allowing chlorinated chicken in the UK (it would be extremely politically difficult to sell this idea to the UK public, but leave that aside for now)? Or does our commitment to stay closely aligned to EU rules rule that out? That's just one relatively trivial example of course; there will no doubt be countless others.

Even if we could sign such a deal, I believe that Barnier's brief for phase 2 includes securing a commitment from the UK to "a level playing field" - in other words, that after Brexit the UK government won't try to turn us into a deregulatory nirvana. This is the "Singapore-on Sea" fantasy so beloved of the most ideologically fanatical Brexiteers. Without the UK government giving that commitment the chances of us getting any sort of deal with the EU are almost certainly zero, but if we assure the EU that we won't do that, presumably that would place quite considerable restrictions on the possible terms of any future bilateral deals we might make. Since the Brexit ultras' wet dream is of "buccaneering, free-trading Britain", that would render Brexit largely pointless as far as they're concerned.

One of the really extraordinary things about this embarrassing fiasco is that the Brexiteers didn't bother to work any of these problems out before the referendum. They've been campaigning for the UK to leave the EU for years, yet they had absolutely no plan whatsoever for what to do if they won the referendum, and boy has that showed over the 18 months since then. All we've heard are jaw-droppingly complacent assurances that we can leave the EU but still have the benefits of membership without any of the obligations. Why? Because "they need us more than we need them", so when push comes to shove they'll back down and give us what we want. The fact that the UK government has had to pretty much capitulate on all three of the phase 1 issues is proof of how utterly delusional those assurances always were. The article linked to above by Que says that other non-EU countries are already lobbying the EU not to give us a better deal than they get, otherwise they'll want the same. Again, this is the sort of problem which the Brexiteers could and should have anticipated, but as with everything else, they failed to do so. It's ironic that the issue that seems to be making a hard Brexit vastly more difficult for them to achieve is Ireland - an issue which barely got a mention during the referendum campaign, presumably because it's an issue that the Brexiteers don't really care about.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Gurn Blanston on December 09, 2017, 04:21:20 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on December 09, 2017, 03:30:39 PM
That seems to be pretty much where we are. The Brexiteers may say that leaving the single market and customs union means we can strike our own trade deals with other countries, but I'm not sure how that works, given the commitment to remain aligned with the single market and customs union regulations. To take just one example which has had a fair bit of media attention on this side of the pond: US regulations allow the sale of chlorinated chicken, which is banned in the EU. If we're committed to sticking closely to EU rules, does the fact that we would be technically outside the customs union and single market mean we could sign a trade deal with the US which includes allowing chlorinated chicken in the UK (it would be extremely politically difficult to sell this idea to the UK public, but leave that aside for now)? Or does our commitment to stay closely aligned to EU rules rule that out? That's just one relatively trivial example of course; there will no doubt be countless others.

Even if we could sign such a deal, I believe that Barnier's brief for phase 2 includes securing a commitment from the UK to "a level playing field" - in other words, that after Brexit the UK government won't try to turn us into a deregulatory nirvana. This is the "Singapore-on Sea" fantasy so beloved of the most ideologically fanatical Brexiteers. Without the UK government giving that commitment the chances of us getting any sort of deal with the EU are almost certainly zero, but if we assure the EU that we won't do that, presumably that would place quite considerable restrictions on the possible terms of any future bilateral deals we might make. Since the Brexit ultras' wet dream is of "buccaneering, free-trading Britain", that would render Brexit largely pointless as far as they're concerned.

One of the really extraordinary things about this embarrassing fiasco is that the Brexiteers didn't bother to work any of these problems out before the referendum. They've been campaigning for the UK to leave the EU for years, yet they had absolutely no plan whatsoever for what to do if they won the referendum, and boy has that showed over the 18 months since then. All we've heard are jaw-droppingly complacent assurances that we can leave the EU but still have the benefits of membership without any of the obligations. Why? Because "they need us more than we need them", so when push comes to shove they'll back down and give us what we want. The fact that the UK government has had to pretty much capitulate on all three of the phase 1 issues is proof of how utterly delusional those assurances always were. The article linked to above by Que says that other non-EU countries are already lobbying the EU not to give us a better deal than they get, otherwise they'll want the same. Again, this is the sort of problem which the Brexiteers could and should have anticipated, but as with everything else, they failed to do so. It's ironic that the issue that seems to be making a hard Brexit vastly more difficult for them to achieve is Ireland - an issue which barely got a mention during the referendum campaign, presumably because it's an issue that the Brexiteers don't really care about.

Thanks for that. It pretty well encapsulates the inferences I've drawn from my Twitter followers' tweets (about half of my 500+ followers are Brits, for some reason!). I feel badly for them, most are quite depressed over it, but as you are well-aware, we have our own tub of shit to deal with. :-\

Quote from: nodogen on December 09, 2017, 03:03:57 PM
Well, it's not as pithy as I'd put it.

To be sure. Nor I, in your place.

8)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 09, 2017, 05:06:22 PM
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on December 09, 2017, 04:21:20 PM
Thanks for that. It pretty well encapsulates the inferences I've drawn from my Twitter followers' tweets (about half of my 500+ followers are Brits, for some reason!). I feel badly for them, most are quite depressed over it, but as you are well-aware, we have our own tub of shit to deal with. :-\

As horrific as Trump is though, at least you get a chance to vote him out in 2020, assuming he makes it that far. Unfortunately for us, Brexit is the result of a referendum, which means the vote has been sanctified as "the will of the people", even though it showed the country pretty much split down the middle. And those on the leave side who so loudly demanded for years that "the people must have their say" are remarkably unenthusiastic about having a referendum on the terms of the eventual deal, when we know what that is. "The people must have their say, once" would apparently be more accurate. Trying to reverse this shitshow really is going to be horribly difficult, and even if it happens, god alone knows what damage will have been done by then.

It would certainly be very interesting to know to what extent, if at all, it is possible to have a number of trade deals with different countries/trading blocs if those deals include regulations that clash with each other. I don't know the answer to that, but I'm hoping there are pretty substantial limits on how much of a clash there can be. If that's the case, agreeing to regulatory alignment with the single market and customs union would seem to make a hard Brexit almost impossible. Here's hoping....
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 10, 2017, 12:53:30 AM
Remainers have an important ally in the European Union: Ireland.

it is for economical as well as political reasons of paramount interest to Ireland that the UK stays in the customs union and the internal market, and it will do anything to prevent a hard Brexit. Sofar Ireland seems to wield a lot of influence during the negotiations.

May has stated she is seeking a short transitional stage of 2 years in which the UK retains access to the internal market, but is not in it. Since the UK no longer wants to accept the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice, wants to end free movement of people and want to start negotiating bilateral trade agreements with third countries.

First reality check will be that a trade deal with the EU cannot be negotiated witin 2 years (or a comprehensive deal  with any other country, for that matter).
To prevent another cliff edge, the transition has to be longer. Under those conditions only a continued participation of the customs union and the internal market with continued contributions - without a rebate - would be acceptable to the EU.

The alternative would be the short transition period desired by the UK, followed by a hard Brexit.
That would at least soften the economic shock and give more time to prepare....

But the so called "third fase" - the actual trade deal with the EU - is not going to materialise before the exit date....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 10, 2017, 01:42:52 AM
Quote from: Que on December 10, 2017, 12:53:30 AM

Since the UK no longer wants to accept the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice, wants to end free movement of people and want to start negotiating bilateral trade agreements with third countries.

Q

I imagine you meant "third world countries" 😤
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 10, 2017, 02:02:33 AM
Quote from: nodogen on December 10, 2017, 01:42:52 AM
I imagine you meant "third world countries" 😤

"We could say, if it's good enough in India, it's good enough for here."

MP Rees-Mogg on future environmental regulations in the UK..... :laugh:

Q


PS Of course, apart from being bizarre, it's actually extremely sad...  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 10, 2017, 02:08:57 AM
Quote from: Que on December 10, 2017, 02:02:33 AM
"We could say, if it's good enough in India, it's good enough for here."

MP Rees-Mogg on future environmental regulations in the UK..... :laugh:

Q


PS Of course, apart from being bizarre, it's actually extremely sad...  ::)

Just stop it now, I'm trying to have a nice day.

Anyway Mogg will be able to have cheaper servants running round his mansion. 😡
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 10, 2017, 04:30:31 AM
Apparently the Telegraph is reporting that May's aides have told arch-Brexiteers like Gove and Johnson that her concession on commitment to regulatory alignment with the customs union and single market is effectively meaningless as it means nothing in EU law. I'd normally take anything the Telegraph says with a truckload of salt, but if this is true it would certainly explain the otherwise puzzling phenomenon of Gove, Johnson and even Fox lauding May for reaching an agreement that up to now they would have denounced as a surrender.

If it really is true, it seems that the plan is to give the EU a commitment that the UK government has no intention of honouring. Even for the Brexiteers, this would be a staggeringly stupid thing to do. Their vision of other countries queuing up to give us incredible new trade deals at mates rates is a fantasy with no factual basis in reality, but even if it were true, other countries would only sign deals with us if they thought the UK could be trusted. Who would touch us with a barge pole if we've just treated the EU in such a blatantly duplicitous fashion? It's not as if we can say that even this government wouldn't be so monumentally stupid as to try something like this, as all the evidence thus far suggests that they would. This is the government whose cabinet still hasn't got round to discussing what sort of final outcome they want from Brexit - 18 months after the referendum and eight months after triggering article 50.

Hopefully the very fact that it's appeared in the Telegraph will scupper this mad idea. It won't go unnoticed in Brussels, so the EU will now suspect that this is what the UK government may be up to - even if the government denies it - and will have it in mind when it comes to the trade talks. To say this does not bode well would be an understatement of immense proportions.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on December 10, 2017, 05:24:17 AM
The drama ! This is getting much more fun and exciting than Trump's baby tantrums and the shenanigans of the US congress and senate !  :D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 10, 2017, 06:28:28 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on December 10, 2017, 04:30:31 AM
... it seems that the plan is to give the EU a commitment that the UK government has no intention of honouring.

Perfide Albion ??  Funny I think I have heard that nickname before...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 10, 2017, 06:45:12 AM
Rather like Trump, almost every hour you think What The Absolute Fuck?


May's EU deal not binding, says David Davis


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42298971 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42298971)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 10, 2017, 06:57:23 AM
Quote from: nodogen on December 10, 2017, 06:45:12 AM
Rather like Trump, almost every hour you think What The Absolute Fuck?


May's EU deal not binding, says David Davis


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42298971 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42298971)

Brexit is starting to resemble a piece of surrealist performance art.

Interesting sentence in that article:

QuoteBut there is still controversy, and confusion, over what "full alignment" would mean in practice, with some Brexiteers fearing the UK would have to continue to abide by EU regulations on agriculture and other issues after Brexit and would not be able to strike its own trade deals.

That strongly suggests that the clash between different trade deals' regulations I mentioned earlier could indeed be a big problem.

According to this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/10/no-deal-brexit-odds-dropped-dramatically-david-davis (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/10/no-deal-brexit-odds-dropped-dramatically-david-davis)

QuoteDavis said, however, that full alignment would only affect a few sectors, such as agriculture, road and rail, and would mean the UK achieving certain outcomes but not necessarily in the same way as the EU did.

So if, as this implies, there are sectors in which full alignment won't apply, and that therefore in those sectors there will be a significant degree of regulatory divergence, that surely takes us back to a hard border, since the EU will want to be sure that UK goods in non-aligned sectors entering the EU are compatible with single market and customs union regulations. I suppose there could be mutual recognition of each others' standards, but the EU won't do that unless our regulations in non-aligned sectors are very similar - or, to put it another way, in regulatory alignment - to theirs. The kindest interpretation of the government's plans I can think of is that they appear to be written on the back of a fag packet. I can think of some distinctly less charitable descriptions as well.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 10, 2017, 09:14:04 AM
I guess the UK govt doesn't want a deal after all...

Row erupts over claims that Brexit border concessions were 'meaningless' and 'not binding' (https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/row-erupts-over-claims-that-brexit-border-concessions-were-meaningless-and-not-binding-36394010.html)

The other members of the European Council will not be amused... ::)

As mentioned here before: no credibility = no deal.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 10, 2017, 01:04:21 PM
Quote from: Que on December 10, 2017, 09:14:04 AM
I guess the UK govt doesn't want a deal after all...

Row erupts over claims that Brexit border concessions were 'meaningless' and 'not binding' (https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/row-erupts-over-claims-that-brexit-border-concessions-were-meaningless-and-not-binding-36394010.html)

The other members of the European Council will not be amused... ::)

As mentioned here before: no credibility = no deal.

Q

I like this bit:

QuoteLast night, a Downing Street spokesman said: "We do not recognise this account of conversations."

If the reports were false you can be sure the government would be pouring bucketloads of scorn all over them. Instead they issue a feeble denial whose wording could hardly be any weaker, which does rather suggest that the reports are true but they can't admit it. It's the Baldrick approach - government by cunning plan. Unfortunately, this particular plan is making Baldrick look like a strategic genius by comparison.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 11, 2017, 12:42:33 AM
And Ireland is not happy...

Ireland issues warning to David Davis over Brexit agreement

The Irish government has warned the Brexit Secretary that the border agreement is not a 'statement of intent' it is 'politically bullet-proof'
(http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ireland-david-davis-brexit-warning-a8102766.html)

In my view, what Davis and other Brexiteers don't get, is that this independent from the outcome of the negotiations on a transitional phase and a subsequent trade deal. The adagium "nothing is agreed untill everything is agreed" doesn't quite apply - perhaps in working out details, but not in principle.
The divorce bill is connected to preexisting financial obligations from the UK's current EU membership. The Northern Ireland issue deals with the UK's existing legal obligations under the Good Friday Agreement. The agreement explicitly deals with the situation of a hard Brexit.... The "grandfathering" (preservation of preexisting legal rights) of EU citizens rights is and independent legal matter as well.

Brexiteers assume they can walk away from the divorce agreement if they don't get the trade deal they want.

Not....that would be a breach of an international legal agreement and would have serious consequences.
As the Chancellor already tried to explain to an incredulous audience - the divorce settlement has to be paid irrespective of the outcome subsequent negations.
The same goes for the UK commitments on the way it will abide by the Good Friday Agreement after a Brexit, whatever shape or form it may take.

Davis is now backtracking on Hammonds' statement: Brexit: David Davis says £39bn bill "conditional" on final deal countering Philip Hammond's claim (http://www.cityam.com/277220/david-davis-tries-explain-those-non-existent-brexit-impact)

Very stupid, and very dangerous...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 11, 2017, 12:51:59 AM
EU statement

The updated Negotiating Guidelines the EU adopt next Fri are clear enough: "negotiations in the second phase can only progress as long as all commitments undertaken during the first phase are respected in full and translated faithfully in legal terms as quickly as possible."

The amazing thing is that Daniel Davis is the chief negotiator for the UK.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 11, 2017, 01:18:20 AM
Quote from: Spineur on December 11, 2017, 12:51:59 AM

The amazing thing is that Daniel Davis is the chief negotiator for the UK.

Good news!

He has been replaced by David Davis. 😉
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 12, 2017, 08:52:09 AM
Michael Gove unveils Brexit for animals plan (no kidding !!)

https://www.yahoo.com/news/britain-unveils-brexit-animals-plan-005610680.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/britain-unveils-brexit-animals-plan-005610680.html)

British will never cease to surprise me !!  No more bullfights in the UK !
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: North Star on December 12, 2017, 08:56:41 AM
Quote from: Spineur on December 12, 2017, 08:52:09 AM
Michael Gove unveils Brexit for animals plan (no kidding !!)

https://www.yahoo.com/news/britain-unveils-brexit-animals-plan-005610680.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/britain-unveils-brexit-animals-plan-005610680.html)

British will never cease to surprise me !!

QuoteAs it rejects EU exemptions for activities such as bullfighting and foie gras production, the law would offer "even stronger protection" than the EU protocol "could ever do", said spokesman David Bowles.
Huzzah for Brexit - no more bullfighting or overfed foie gras geese in the UK!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 12, 2017, 11:29:06 AM
There's obviously nothing Brexitty about animal welfare, but I am all in favour of the highest possible standards, whoever makes the laws. I just find it bizarre this is coming from the party of fox hunting (May had thought another vote on it was a super idea before the GE scuppered that idea). The tory party happily drives human animals into poverty and deprivation, but wants better welfare the the rest. WTF?

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 12, 2017, 02:38:33 PM
The worst thing about this sorry mess is that although a poll today shows that 51% of UK voters think that Brexit negotiations are going badly, the Tories still have 42% support and lead the Labour party (40%) in the polls by 2%.

What will it take?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 12, 2017, 03:24:07 PM
Quote from: Turbot nouveaux on December 12, 2017, 02:38:33 PM
The worst thing about this sorry mess is that although a poll today shows that 51% of UK voters think that Brexit negotiations are going badly, the Tories still have 42% support and lead the Labour party (40%) in the polls by 2%.

What will it take?

Polls I've seen recently have either had Labour slightly ahead or the two parties on level pegging, though I believe there was one recently that had a Labour lead of 8 points. But the overall picture seems to be that little has changed since the election.

I think the reason for this is the referendum. It not only revealed a country split down the middle on the issue of the EU, it amplified that split to such an extent that the public has largely gravitated towards which of the two main parties it feels better represents them on that issue. The Tories' pitch to the public is that they're a party of enthusiastic hard Brexiteers, so most Leave voters are sticking with them. Labour's pitch has been that of a party of soft Brexit that wants to stay as close to the EU as possible. Remainers might not find that ideal, but it's far better than hard Brexit so they've mostly gone with Labour.

Obviously this is very broadly speaking. There are other issues which may well start to hurt the Tories - the state of the NHS, the fiasco of Universal Credit, the squeeze on living standards to name just a few. But Brexit currently dominates the agenda and will do until (if?) we leave. The effects of Brexit starting to kick in therefore remains the thing most likely to really cause the Tories trouble. They're hoping that positioning themselves as the most pro-Brexit party will win them votes, but if Brexit goes badly - and given what's happened so far that looks a very distinct possibility - then they'll be associated with it. They probably know that, and are hoping that the worst of the damage can be put off until just after the next election.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 12, 2017, 10:25:37 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on December 12, 2017, 03:24:07 PM
Labour's pitch has been that of a party of soft Brexit that wants to stay as close to the EU as possible. Remainers might not find that ideal, but it's far better than hard Brexit so they've mostly gone with Labour.

In my impression Labour is as split on Brexit as the Tories are, though hard Brexiteers are lower in number.
Labour has declined to firmly commit to remain in the customs union and internal market.... "something very close", which is basically May's approach...

Both major parties keep fudging and swaggering because of the split in public opinion.

Q

PS  Labour will have to make a choice on Brexit, and soon (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/13/labour-brexit-position-tories)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 13, 2017, 04:40:27 AM
Quote from: Que on December 12, 2017, 10:25:37 PM
In my impression Labour is as split on Brexit as the Tories are, though hard Brexiteers are lower in number.
Labour has declined to firmly commit to remain in the customs union and internal market.... "something very close", which is basically May's approach...

Both major parties keep fudging and swaggering because of the split in public opinion.

Q

PS  Labour will have to make a choice on Brexit, and soon (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/13/labour-brexit-position-tories)

Labour has its splits on Brexit, but they are certainly not as drastic as those in the Tory party. The vast majority of Labour MPs and members are solidly pro-Remain. The split is among Labour voters, which I mentioned recently. Even so, I believe around two thirds of Labour voters voted Remain, though it's certainly true that there are a number of Labour seats in the north of England and the Midlands that voted for Brexit.

As I said before, I think Corbyn would probably like to make an explicit offer to the public of staying in the customs union and single market, but he can't do it until some of those Leave voters start to switch in sufficient numbers to make such an offer politically viable. That's not likely to happen until those voters start to realise they've been had. It may start to happen during the trade negotiations. They will be far harder than phase 1 - which proved hard enough - and they won't be able to fudge it, as decisions will have to be made on which way to jump on those issues which have been fudged for now. That's when Leave voters may start to see that Brexit is not going to deliver what they were told it would. Labour will obviously need a concrete policy of its own ready and waiting to go by that point. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 13, 2017, 10:30:38 AM
MPs defeat May's government on Brexit law (309 to 305)

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-lawmaking/mps-defeat-mays-government-on-brexit-law-idUKKBN1E700T
(http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-lawmaking/mps-defeat-mays-government-on-brexit-law-idUKKBN1E700T)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on December 13, 2017, 10:33:21 AM
Quote from: Spineur on December 13, 2017, 10:30:38 AM
MPs defeat May's government on Brexit law (309 to 305)

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-lawmaking/mps-defeat-mays-government-on-brexit-law-idUKKBN1E700T
(http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-lawmaking/mps-defeat-mays-government-on-brexit-law-idUKKBN1E700T)

Just heard it.

Interesting... :P
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 13, 2017, 10:36:33 AM
Hurrah!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/13/tory-brexit-rebels-inflict-major-defeat-on-theresa-may (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/13/tory-brexit-rebels-inflict-major-defeat-on-theresa-may)

And tomorrow, she's off to Brussels. Suck it up, May.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 13, 2017, 03:24:23 PM
Apparently some of the Brexiteers are furious with the rebels. Nadine Dorries has said they should be deselected. It's a good job the Brexiteers themselves don't have track records of repeated rebellion against their own government when they were pushing their anti-EU agenda, or they might be open to accusations of hypocrisy.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 13, 2017, 04:07:28 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on December 13, 2017, 03:24:23 PM
Apparently some of the Brexiteers are furious with the rebels. Nadine Dorries has said they should be deselected. It's a good job the Brexiteers themselves don't have track records of repeated rebellion against their own government when they were pushing their anti-EU agenda, or they might be open to accusations of hypocrisy.

Shhhh. The Will of The People is more important than hypocrisy.

Wasn't it lovely watching them slagging each other off on the news tonight. 😁
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 14, 2017, 03:29:26 AM
The more the members of this odious government fight and fall out with each other, the happier I'll be, and the sooner we'll be rid of them.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 14, 2017, 05:47:35 AM
Having already given us the infamous "Enemies of the People" and "Crush the Saboteurs" headlines, the Daily Mail is back in Der Sturmer mode:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/14/proud-tory-brexit-rebels-parliament-mutineers (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/14/proud-tory-brexit-rebels-parliament-mutineers)

Who would ever guess that this is the same paper that once cheered on Mosley's Blackshirts? Still, I'm sure they took an equally dim view of the Brexiteers when they were rebelling over Europe, because there's no way the Mail would ever be hypocritical. Just wouldn't happen.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 14, 2017, 06:04:36 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on December 14, 2017, 05:47:35 AM
Having already given us the infamous "Enemies of the People" and "Crush the Saboteurs" headlines, the Daily Mail is back in Der Sturmer mode:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/14/proud-tory-brexit-rebels-parliament-mutineers (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/14/proud-tory-brexit-rebels-parliament-mutineers)

Who would ever guess that this is the same paper that once cheered on Mosley's Blackshirts? Still, I'm sure they took an equally dim view of the Brexiteers when they were rebelling over Europe, because there's no way the Mail would ever be hypocritical. Just wouldn't happen.

Clearly I hope it does not happen, but I genuinely fear the mail may prompt a violent response, if not now but eventually. Power without responsibility. And of course, a causal link could never be established. Surely we don't want another Jo Cox tragedy?

I don't know what the solution to the mail's defence of "freedom of speech" is but an attempt at addressing it is needed. To be blunt, those that might be able to do something about it are those most likely to be a target of such hatred.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 14, 2017, 07:07:06 AM
Quote from: nodogen on December 14, 2017, 06:04:36 AM
Clearly I hope it does not happen, but I genuinely fear the mail may prompt a violent response, if not now but eventually. Power without responsibility. And of course, a causal link could never be established. Surely we don't want another Jo Cox tragedy?

I don't know what the solution to the mail's defence of "freedom of speech" is but an attempt at addressing it is needed. To be blunt, those that might be able to do something about it are those most likely to be a target of such hatred.

Perhaps it should be prosecuted under terrorism laws for radicalising its readers:

https://twitter.com/DMReporter/status/939428837598916608?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.redcafe.net%2Fthreads%2Fsoft-brexit-fallout-thread.418898%2Fpage-530 (https://twitter.com/DMReporter/status/939428837598916608?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.redcafe.net%2Fthreads%2Fsoft-brexit-fallout-thread.418898%2Fpage-530)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 14, 2017, 08:34:41 AM
Quote from: nodogen on December 14, 2017, 06:04:36 AM
Clearly I hope it does not happen, but I genuinely fear the mail may prompt a violent response, if not now but eventually. Power without responsibility. And of course, a causal link could never be established. Surely we don't want another Jo Cox tragedy?

I don't know what the solution to the mail's defence of "freedom of speech" is but an attempt at addressing it is needed. To be blunt, those that might be able to do something about it are those most likely to be a target of such hatred.

And predictably enough....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/14/dominic-grieve-says-he-has-had-death-threats-after-brexit-rebellion (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/14/dominic-grieve-says-he-has-had-death-threats-after-brexit-rebellion)

Soubry also had death threats after the Telegraph's recent "mutineers" headline.

Of course, if there is another Jo Cox tragedy their defence will be similar to what Trump says when a mass killing happens and it turns out the shooter is white rather than brown: mental illness issue, no wider significance, mustn't politicise this tragedy, etc..
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 16, 2017, 12:44:03 AM
Phase 2.. or should I say Act 2 of this tragicomedy...?  ;)

The transition phase is for the EU about retaining the status quo on the customs union and the internal market - which means full regulatory conformity, full competence of the Court of Justice. Basically the Norway scenario for a limited period of time.....

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42367532

My prediction is that the UK govt is going to suck it up, in the prospect of a trade deal (phase 3)

But the negotiations on that trade deal will either drag on for years to come or even falter all together....

Depending on political developments in the UK, this will lead to either an extension or indefinite continuation of the status quo of the transition phase or to a hard Brexit.

In any case, I am afraid that it is going to be a slow, torturous and humiliating process....  ::)

On the upside: as long as the economic status quo is continued, the Irish and Scottish issues will be kept at bay. Sturgeon will have insufficient momentum for an independence referendum as long as there is no clarity on the endgame.

Q

PS The doors open to Phase 2:

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/288e1efb1da26594c4dbad8542cca44bd7186b05/0_0_4845_3334/master/4845.jpg?w=940&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=b6393cd6db8f991069d88b7bbea3ca40)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 16, 2017, 01:18:44 AM
Funny: an imperialist abhorring the prospect of becoming a colony......

Brexit: UK must not be EU 'colony' after Brexit (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42375059)

I guess empires are only a good idea if you have the upper hand...... ;)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 16, 2017, 02:48:39 PM

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/16/brexit-row-leaves-voters-thinking-tories-are-more-divided-than-labour (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/16/brexit-row-leaves-voters-thinking-tories-are-more-divided-than-labour)

What catches my eye is stats such:

22% said their view of May was more positive than at the start of the year

30% approve of May's handling of Brexit


Presumably these are the Daily Mail readers...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 16, 2017, 03:46:40 PM
Quote from: Que on December 16, 2017, 12:44:03 AMMy prediction is that the UK govt is going to suck it up, in the prospect of a trade deal (phase 3)

But the negotiations on that trade deal will either drag on for years to come or even falter all together....

Depending on political developments in the UK, this will lead to either an extension or indefinite continuation of the status quo of the transition phase or to a hard Brexit.

In any case, I am afraid that it is going to be a slow, torturous and humiliating process....  ::)

They'll probably suck it up because they have no practical alternative, however much Rees Mogg and co claim otherwise. They'll say it will be worth it because of the fantastic trade deal the EU is just dying to offer us. The shit will hit the fan when it starts to become clear that that isn't going to happen. We'll get two options: Norway, which the hard Brexiteers will reject out of hand; or Canada, which they might accept. But a Canada-type deal will be a lot worse than what we currently have and will therefore be very economically damaging - there's no way we'll get the "Canada plus plus plus" deal Davis wants. That's when the Brexiteers' claims that we can leave but still have the benefits of membership will be exposed. At that point I'd expect the opposition parties and the Tory remainers to really kick up a stink, if they haven't started doing so already. The Brexiteers' narrative has already shifted from "Brexit will take us to the sunlit uplands" to "it's worth it no matter the cost". They can't be allowed to get away with that. 

QuoteOn the upside: as long as the economic status quo is continued, the Irish and Scottish issues will be kept at bay. Sturgeon will have insufficient momentum for an independence referendum as long as there is no clarity on the endgame.

But when we know the outcome it may well give the SNP momentum for a referendum. If we get a deal it will be a lot worse than what we currently have, and no deal would be a disaster. Either outcome might well make a lot of Scots wonder if it's worth being chained to a UK committing an absurd act of national self-harm, especially if the outcome is no deal. Faced with a post-Brexit UK shaped by the hard right of the Tory party, I couldn't blame them if they decided they wanted out of the UK.   

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 16, 2017, 03:58:10 PM
Quote from: nodogen on December 16, 2017, 02:48:39 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/16/brexit-row-leaves-voters-thinking-tories-are-more-divided-than-labour (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/16/brexit-row-leaves-voters-thinking-tories-are-more-divided-than-labour)

What catches my eye is stats such:

22% said their view of May was more positive than at the start of the year

30% approve of May's handling of Brexit


Presumably these are the Daily Mail readers...

Probably due to the fact that we're moving on to phase 2. A lot of leave voters seem to just want Brexit no matter what, so they're willing to overlook the fact that the government had to capitulate on all three phase 1 issues. If they've even noticed that that's what happened.

Did you see Thursday's Question Time? It was from Barnsley, a hugely pro-Brexit area. The first question was about rebel MPs trying to stop Brexit, the jeering from the audience at one of those rebels (Nicky Morgan) started almost immediately, and it was clear that the rhetoric in the right wing press - saboteurs, mutineers, etc. - had been taken on board. They weren't interested in actual arguments, they just wanted Brexit, come what may. It didn't help that one of the panellists was that fatuous waste of oxygen Isabel Oakeshott, a Daily Mail "journalist" who kept repeating the phrase "will of the people" at every available opportunity. It was noticeable that when Robert Winston, a well respected expert in his field, pointed out the consequences of leaving EURATOM, it all went rather quiet. No-one in the leave campaign told them about that, and Winston can hardly be dismissed as an agent of Project Fear.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 16, 2017, 09:03:39 PM
From Brexit to Bregrets... New referendum ?

"Brexit: Britons now back Remain over Leave by 10 points, exclusive poll shows"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 17, 2017, 03:32:11 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on December 16, 2017, 03:46:40 PM
They'll probably suck it up because they have no practical alternative, however much Rees Mogg and co claim otherwise. They'll say it will be worth it because of the fantastic trade deal the EU is just dying to offer us. The shit will hit the fan when it starts to become clear that that isn't going to happen. We'll get two options: Norway, which the hard Brexiteers will reject out of hand; or Canada, which they might accept. But a Canada-type deal will be a lot worse than what we currently have and will therefore be very economically damaging - there's no way we'll get the "Canada plus plus plus" deal Davis wants. That's when the Brexiteers' claims that we can leave but still have the benefits of membership will be exposed.

Quite right. This is how Tony Blair (of all people...) described it, commenting (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/16/tony-blair-the-whole-country-has-been-pulled-into-this-tory-psychodrama-over-europe) on Labour's Brexit position:

Quote [....] our language may be different, but we're actually in the same position as the Tories, which is to say we'll get out of the single market but we want a close trading relationship with Europe. Your risk is that, at a certain point, you get exposed as having the same technical problem that the Tories have, which is: here's the Canada option, here's the Norway option, and every time you move towards Norwayyou'll be accepting the rules of the EU, but you've lost your say in it, and every time you move towards the Canada option you're going to be doing economic damage. That's the essential dilemma of the Tories, which I think will be exposed over time, and Labour's got that problem, too."
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 17, 2017, 04:56:57 AM
Quote from: Que on December 17, 2017, 03:32:11 AM
Quite right. This is how Tony Blair (of all people...) described it, commenting (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/16/tony-blair-the-whole-country-has-been-pulled-into-this-tory-psychodrama-over-europe) on Labour's Brexit position:

I think Labour will shift its position once it becomes clear to leave voters that they aren't going to get the "have our cake and eat it" Brexit they were promised. Labour is much less divided than the Tories and would be able to live with staying in the customs union and single market quite easily; the Tories couldn't (the Tory remainers probably could, but not the hard Brexit headbangers).

The problem is that so far it hasn't dawned on many leave voters that they're not going to get what they expected, and as episodes of Question Time from Brexit-voting areas make all too clear, they're so hell bent on Brexit that they're not willing - yet - to listen to anyone on the other side of the argument. I know Blair is arguing that Corbyn should try to change their views rather than waiting for them to change, but the problem with that is that if he tries to do so when they're not willing to listen, they'll dismiss what he has to say and probably abandon Labour. If he shifts position at the point when they're beginning to have a change of heart anyway he's much more likely to get a fair hearing. I know this is far from ideal, but the trouble is Brexit has become a viscerally emotional issue, so rational arguments about economic damage and the consequent damage to public services are dismissed as scaremongering/sour grapes from "Remoaners" who should just suck it up because they lost/attempts to thwart "the will of the people", etc.. It's infuriating, because they're going to drag the rest of us off the cliff with them, but until they realise they've been had, it's hard to see what Corbyn or anyone else can do.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 17, 2017, 05:01:35 AM
Quote from: Spineur on December 16, 2017, 09:03:39 PM
From Brexit to Bregrets... New referendum ?

"Brexit: Britons now back Remain over Leave by 10 points, exclusive poll shows"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html)

Interesting, but it's only one poll. We'll have to wait for further polls over the next few months to see if this one is just an outlier, or if it's indicative of a more substantial trend against leaving than we've seen so far. I hope it's the latter, but the figures would probably have to be about 60-40 on a consistent basis for a period of some months in order for a second referendum to become a serious possibility.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 19, 2017, 09:41:23 AM
This is one of Barnier slide last week.  Lots of  steps to climb back up - all probably involving further concessions -  My guess is the UK will reach the swiss level.  Anything below would be insulting and from the EU interests undesirable. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 19, 2017, 03:46:49 PM
Quote from: Spineur on December 19, 2017, 09:41:23 AM
This is one of Barnier slide last week.  Lots of  steps to climb back up - all probably involving further concessions -  My guess is the UK will reach the swiss level.  Anything below would be insulting and from the EU interests undesirable.

What's so damning about that slide is the clarity compared to the fog of contradictory nonsense we're hearing from the UK government - oh yes, and the fact that the slide demonstrates that a deal which isn't much better than CETA is the logical result of other options being closed off by our own government's red lines.

Meanwhile....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/18/david-davis-to-warn-european-commission-it-cannot-cherrypick-brexit-trade-deal-sectors (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/18/david-davis-to-warn-european-commission-it-cannot-cherrypick-brexit-trade-deal-sectors)

Yes, that's Davis warning the EU it can't cherry pick. Well, he did say that he doesn't need to be clever to do his job, and this appears to be an attempt to demonstrate that. Even the photo above the article makes it look as though he's thinking "oh shit, did I really just say that?"
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 20, 2017, 03:34:45 AM
Quote from: Spineur on December 19, 2017, 09:41:23 AM
This is one of Barnier slide last week.  Lots of  steps to climb back up - all probably involving further concessions -  My guess is the UK will reach the swiss level.  Anything below would be insulting and from the EU interests undesirable.

I doubt if the UK is going to get the Swiss deal, which is actually over a 100 bilateral agreements accumulated over many years.

A Swiss type of arrangement will still cross some of the UK government's "red lines". The Swiss, for instance, pay a yearly contribution into EU funds.

Also, following a rejection by referendum by the Swiss people  (those holy pebliscites..... ) of becoming part of the internal market, the EU has been very generous to the Swiss - a bit too generous is the current general feeling.... But that doesn't hurt so much, since the Swiss have a relatively small economy.

Any such generosity towards the Brits would create unfair competition and cause serious distortions of the internal market. It's not going to happen...

The deal with Japan, is according to the EU (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deal-uk-eu-michel-barnier-canada-japan-south-korea-a8119956.html)the new model it will aim for....
Meanwhile the UK govt has decided, after long and hard deliberations, that it wants a "bespoke deal".... in other words: a deal where you have your cake and eat it. ...  ;)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 21, 2017, 03:55:40 AM
I'm afraid that this Brexit thread is going to be pretty boring for some time to come.....

For the so called "transition phase" (phase 2) it is clear that from the side of the EU there is only one offer on the table: a continued membership of the customs union and participation in the internal market untill end of 2020, which is also the end of the current EU budget.

Such an arrangement will effectively delay all economic consequences (well, most...) of Brexit till 2021....
Meanwhile negotiations will be started on a final trade deal.

At present there will be just one bone of contention: Gibraltar
It will, as far as the EU is concerned, not be automatically covered by the transitional agreement.
My guess is that Spain will not be prepared to allow a continuation of Gibraltar's status a tax haven much longer.... Of course it could be decided to go all the way with Gibraltar and turn it into a modern pirate's nest. But in that case Gibraltar would be completely cut off from the EU.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 22, 2017, 05:00:34 AM
The UK will change the color of the passports to blue after Brexit.  Next on the agenda is the color of the entrance carpet at 10 downing street.
This says it all.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 22, 2017, 07:54:09 AM
Quote from: Spineur on December 22, 2017, 05:00:34 AM
The UK will change the color of the passports to blue after Brexit.  Next on the agenda is the color of the entrance carpet at 10 downing street.
This says it all.

And to think, I accused them of not having a plan. I feel such a fool. :(
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 22, 2017, 10:18:19 AM
https://youtu.be/TLpWX3ukQKQ
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 24, 2017, 06:15:48 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/YF7E32N.jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 25, 2017, 10:16:20 AM
Ho ho ho


Sad thing is, of course, it's funny because it's the truth.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 02, 2018, 02:57:49 AM
Funny: no cherrypicking.... by the EU.....


David Davis says EU cannot 'cherrypick' terms of free trade deal (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/02/david-davis-says-eu-cannot-cherry-pick-terms-of-free-trade-deal)

Isn't cherrypicking (by both sides) not quintessential of a "bespoke trade deal" that the UK govt so desires?

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on January 02, 2018, 06:50:08 AM
Quote from: Que on January 02, 2018, 02:57:49 AM
Funny: no cherrypicking.... by the EU.....


David Davis says EU cannot 'cherrypick' terms of free trade deal (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/02/david-davis-says-eu-cannot-cherry-pick-terms-of-free-trade-deal)

Isn't cherrypicking (by both sides) not quintessential of a "bespoke trade deal" that the UK govt so desires?

Q

The issue of the Irish border was fudged in the phase 1 talks by means of an agreement to stay in regulatory alignment with the single market and customs union - but the UK government said that this alignment will apply to certain specific areas directly relevant to cross-border trade in Ireland. That implies that there will be a significant number of other areas in which we don't commit to stay in alignment. Sounds rather like cherrypicking to me. So if Davis continues to insist on economic cooperation across the board, the EU will simply say: fine, you want cooperation across the board, stay in regulatory alignment across the board. At which point either the UK refuses, or agrees. If the former, it's a pretty hard Brexit with all the damage that entails. If the latter, the Brexit ultras will explode with rage. These decisions will have to be made in 2018: they can't carry on fudging them, and whichever way May jumps, one wing of her party will be furious.

By the way, you know how the Brexiteers are insisting that Brexit means we have to leave the single market, and that a Norway-type deal would be unacceptable because we'd still effectively be in the EU? Well...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=88&v=0xGt3QmRSZY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=88&v=0xGt3QmRSZY)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 09, 2018, 11:05:39 PM
Hammond and Davis: Post-Brexit trade barriers 'make no sense' (https://www.politico.eu/article/philip-hammond-david-davis-post-brexit-trade-barriers-make-no-sense/)

Newsflash: if you don't want any trade barriers, you'd better stay within the internal market...  ::)

It seems that in the UK govt Brexit is still revolving around reconciling the irreconcilable...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on January 09, 2018, 11:59:00 PM
I enjoyed the 'News Item' at the end of Paddington 2 which stated that Mrs Brown had indeed managed to swim the Channel between Enland and France but had to swim back again as she had forgotten her passport.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on January 10, 2018, 04:48:29 AM
Quote from: Que on January 09, 2018, 11:05:39 PM
Hammond and Davis: Post-Brexit trade barriers 'make no sense' (https://www.politico.eu/article/philip-hammond-david-davis-post-brexit-trade-barriers-make-no-sense/)

Newsflash: if you don't want any trade barriers, you'd better stay witin the internal market...  ::)

It seems that in the UK govt Brexit is still revolving around reconciling the irreconcilable...

Q

Let me put it simply:

I want a divorce, but afterwards I still want to be able to shag you.


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on January 11, 2018, 04:55:59 AM
So amusing !

QuoteNigel Farage says "just maybe I'm reaching the point of thinking that we should have a second referendum on EU membership"

https://www.itv.com/news/2018-01-11/nigel-farage-maybe-we-should-have-a-second-eu-referendum/ (https://www.itv.com/news/2018-01-11/nigel-farage-maybe-we-should-have-a-second-eu-referendum/)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on January 15, 2018, 03:00:33 PM
Boris Johnson has finally admitted that the £350million figure on the bus was bollocks. Well, sort of:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/15/leave-campaigns-350m-claim-was-too-low-says-boris-johnson (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/15/leave-campaigns-350m-claim-was-too-low-says-boris-johnson)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 16, 2018, 12:07:03 AM
The UK rejection of the "Norway model" while attempting to cherrypick a deal with the EU that is as adventageous, doesn't go down well with Norway....

May faces tougher transition stance from EU amid Norway pressure (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/15/norway-may-rip-up-eu-deal-over-uk-brexit-demands)

And I expect Norway to pressure the EU to drive a hard deal with the UK in fisheries as well...

So what do we deduce from this?

1. The UK has few friends in negotiating the trade deal with the EU.

2. It is impossible for the EU to give the UK a better deal than other trading partners without blowing up existing trade deals....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on January 16, 2018, 09:35:00 PM
Quote from: Spineur on January 11, 2018, 04:55:59 AM
So amusing !

https://www.itv.com/news/2018-01-11/nigel-farage-maybe-we-should-have-a-second-eu-referendum/ (https://www.itv.com/news/2018-01-11/nigel-farage-maybe-we-should-have-a-second-eu-referendum/)

"The percentage that would vote to leave next time would be very much bigger than it was last time round."

I think he's spot on. Referenda on topics like these are ruled and decided by emotions and sentiments, not on common sense and arguments. We've seen that with the 'first' referendum, and with referenda in other countries.
Bruxelles is giving the UK a very rough time, which will make even more Brits think "let's get rid of them eternally."
Farage, Johnson et al will feed these emotions with even more strength than in 2016.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 16, 2018, 09:52:04 PM
Quote from: Marc on January 16, 2018, 09:35:00 PM
"The percentage that would vote to leave next time would be very much bigger than it was last time round."

I think he's spot on. Referenda on topics like these are ruled and decided by emotions and sentiments, not on common sense and arguments. We've seen that with the 'first' referendum, and with referenda in other countries.
Bruxelles is giving the UK a very rough time, which will make even more Brits think "let's get rid of them eternally."
Farage, Johnson et al will feed these emotions with even more strength than in 2016.

The irony of it all is that Britain already has a superb "bespoke deal": outside the euro, outside the Schengen free movement zone, treaty opt-outs on social protection and criminal justice, and last but not least.... a huge budget rebate.

What Brexit does, is to throw that all away and scream murder over not getting anything better...

And now blaming the "tyrannical EU" for a "bad deal" is indeed becoming a self fulfilling prophesy, building up more resentment.
So, I think Marc might be right...if so, it's going to be ugly....  ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 16, 2018, 10:08:48 PM
Britons in Netherlands take fight for their EU rights to Dutch court (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/16/britons-in-netherlands-take-fight-for-their-eu-rights-to-dutch-court)

I haven't had a close look at the legal arguments yet...

But my legal instincts tell me there might be a good possibility that the EU Court of Justice finds that UK nationals that are permanent residents in the (remainder of the) EU at the moment of Brexit, cannot be stripped of their EU citizenship.

Which makes sense, if one makes comparisons with the way citizenship/nationality issues are dealt with in other (regular) instances of secession.

This will of course will not help EU citizens in the UK or prevent the loss of EU citizenship for all other UK nationals.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on January 17, 2018, 06:32:23 AM
For what it's worth, polls since the referendum have shown a small degree of movement towards Remain. Nothing major, but they suggest that Remain would win by a narrow margin if there were to be another referendum now.

The problem is that such a result is far from guaranteed, and a narrow Remain win wouldn't put the issue to bed, no more than a narrow Leave win has. And obviously if Leave won again, even if only narrowly, that would be it and we'd be really screwed. That said, if a second referendum does happen, it's highly unlikely to be a re-run of June 2016, i.e. choosing between leave or remain. It would probably be a choice between accepting whatever deal May gets - including no deal if that should happen - or rejecting that deal and staying in. At that point we would know the terms of exit, and there should then be a clear and obvious gulf between the deal we actually get, and the have our cake and eat it deal the Brexiteers assured us we'd get. That disconnect between the Brexiteers' rhetoric and what we get in reality is what will produce a Remain win, assuming anything can. There's no point in trying to change the minds of die-hard Brexiteer believers, but the less fanatical Leave voters who genuinely thought we'd get the sort of deal they were promised might be willing to reconsider.

Of course it's also possible that there are enough people of the "Brexit at any cost" persuasion to win another vote, in which case it's full steam ahead for Shit Creek. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on January 20, 2018, 01:44:55 AM
So, Boris Johnson wants a bridge over the channel....
Do you think cars will be driving on the the left or right hand side of the road ?  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on January 29, 2018, 02:31:22 PM
The Government's Own Brexit Analysis Says The UK Will Be Worse Off In Every Scenario Outside The EU

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be (https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be)

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 30, 2018, 10:54:02 AM
Quote from: Spineur on January 29, 2018, 02:31:22 PM
The Government's Own Brexit Analysis Says The UK Will Be Worse Off In Every Scenario Outside The EU

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be (https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be)

According to the UK govt we shouldn't take their own forecasts very serious.... 8)

QuoteThe leaked figures showing Britain would be worse off under all Brexit scenarios than it would have been had it stayed in the EU were just a work in progress. The numbers had been cobbled together by a bunch of untrustworthy idiots in his own department and he had personally sent them all back to their spreadsheets with strict instructions not to emerge until they came up with a scenario in which Brexit was going to be a huge success.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/30/well-rewrite-brexit-studies-until-we-get-the-right-result-says-mp

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 30, 2018, 01:41:33 PM
QuoteMr Barnier noted that the EU has signed some  70 international trade access agreements with third countries, all of which will have to be asked to accept UK access to their markets on EU terms during the transition.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/uk-to-be-denied-eu-decision-making-role-during-brexit-transition-1.3372792

Oops.....
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on January 31, 2018, 04:40:04 PM
Quote from: Que on January 30, 2018, 10:54:02 AM
According to the UK govt we shouldn't take their own forecasts very serious.... 8)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/30/well-rewrite-brexit-studies-until-we-get-the-right-result-says-mp

Q

They're going to release the analysis after all:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/31/government-will-not-oppose-labour-motion-on-leaked-brexit-papers (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/31/government-will-not-oppose-labour-motion-on-leaked-brexit-papers)

So to recap, the government's position on its impact assessments has gone as follows:

1. The assessments have been done and go into "excruciating detail".
2. Er.....no they don't. In fact they don't even exist.
3. No, as you were - it turns out we have done some sort of assessment after all! But we can't release it.
4. OK, we'll release it. But don't take any notice of the bit that says Brexit will be economically damaging, because economic forecasts are always wrong.
5. Unless they say Brexit will be great. You can trust those. Obviously. And if you don't, you're a saboteur remoaner talking the country down.

The EU must be pissing itself laughing.

This bit says it all:

QuoteThe climbdown came as Downing Street said Phillip Lee, a junior justice minister, had been reprimanded for tweeting that if such studies showed the economy would be harmed then a change in policy should follow.

No such action has been taken against the Brexit minister Steve Baker, who said economic forecasts by government officials were "always wrong".


In tweets sent on Tuesday, a Downing Street source said: "Phillip Lee will recognise that the analysis was initial and probably not worth commenting on. He has been spoken to by the chief whip and reminded that it is best to air his view in private."

Asked whether the lack of action against Baker meant the minister's view was official government policy, the source said: "I will stick with what Steve Baker said."

It's beyond parody now.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 06, 2018, 10:15:45 PM
There seems to be a clear breach of trust between the EU and the UK govt.....

Brexit: EU to have power to punish UK at will during transition

Brussels could impose sanctions if it believes law infringed
(https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/06/brexit-eu-power-punish-uk-transition-period-sanctions)

Given the political situation in the UK, which at times look like a bloody reactionary revolution in the making, I cannot blame the EU for making contingency plans.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 07, 2018, 09:56:37 AM
British group wins right to take Brexit case to European court (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/07/british-group-wins-right-to-take-brexit-case-to-european-court)

I'm proud to see that the Dutch judiciary is still a beacon of light in a world that grows darker and darker by the day.....


"The essence of a democratic constitutional state is that the rights and interests of minorities are protected as much as possible"

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on February 07, 2018, 02:00:19 PM
Quote from: Que on February 06, 2018, 10:15:45 PM
Given the political situation in the UK, which at times look like a bloody reactionary revolution in the making

No wonder you love the Baroque so much --- hyperbole rules!  :laugh: >:D :P

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 07, 2018, 10:12:22 PM
Quote from: Florestan on February 07, 2018, 02:00:19 PM
No wonder you love the Baroque so much --- hyperbole rules!  :laugh: >:D :P

Actual blood will probably not flow...  :D

But I think the UK is heading for its biggest political and constitutional crisis since centuries.

IMO that will lead to the break up of its two party system. It might possibly lead to the break up of the UK itself...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on February 09, 2018, 01:29:06 AM
Quote from: Que on February 07, 2018, 10:12:22 PMActual blood will probably not flow...  :D

But I think the UK is heading for its biggest political and constitutional crisis since centuries.

IMO that will lead to the break up of its two party system. It might possibly lead to the break up of the UK itself...

Q
Agreed, and Que is absolutely right in monitoring this disaster closely.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on February 09, 2018, 03:27:09 AM
Quote from: Que on February 07, 2018, 10:12:22 PM
Actual blood will probably not flow...  :D

But I think the UK is heading for its biggest political and constitutional crisis since centuries.

IMO that will lead to the break up of its two party system. It might possibly lead to the break up of the UK itself...


I don't deny the possibility.

Sooner or later it probably happens to every country. Empires much more powerful and self-confident than the current UK have disappeared without trace.

Sic transit gloria mundi!  :D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on February 09, 2018, 10:08:56 AM
"Bringing you live scenes from the UK's Brexit strategy"

https://twitter.com/Queen_Europe/status/961883716321619968



( ... well, at one level at least, this one is quite funny  :) )
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 10, 2018, 12:24:45 PM
Dark clouds are gathering over Brexit....

Brexit: into the grinding machine (http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86767)

Q

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on February 10, 2018, 04:23:20 PM
Quote from: Que on February 10, 2018, 12:24:45 PM
Dark clouds are gathering over Brexit....

Brexit: into the grinding machine (http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86767)

Q

Those clouds have been on the horizon for ages for anyone to see. The current spin is that we got a last-minute deal in phase one and the same will happen in phase two, which overlooks the fact that May "achieved" the phase one deal with a combination of (a) agreeing to what the EU wanted and (b) kicking the really intractable problems like the Irish border down the road. The trouble with that "strategy" is that you can only kick a problem down the road for so long and then you run out of road. That position is fast approaching.

Meanwhile we have a government paralysed by the ideological faultline in the Tory party, with the Brexit ultras and the hard right Tory press filling the resulting vacuum with bellicose rhetoric about "standing up to EU bullies" - that's the same "bullies" who we were assured would be falling over themselves to give us a have-our-cake-and-eat-it deal because "they need us more than we need them". As that's not happening it's obviously because they're intransigent bullies who want to punish us. Tomorrow's Telegraph has a story trying to sow division in the EU by claiming some states think Barnier is being too aggressive with Britain, which would seem to be a transparent attempt to set Barnier up as the bogeyman who will be blamed by the Brexiteers when we don't get the sort of deal they told us we'd get.

And that seems to be all the Brexiteers have left now. The day after the referendum it turned out that they had no Brexit plan whatsoever even though many of them had been arguing for the UK to leave the EU for years, which suggests many of them never thought they'd win and actually have to go through with it. The priority now seems to be to get the excuses in first so that whatever else happens, when the shit hits the fan, someone else gets the blame. The list of people and institutions who have been accused of trying to sabotage Brexit is already quite long. Those I can think of of the top of my head are:

The EU (obviously)
Remain voters (aka Remoaners/saboteurs etc.)
Remain-supporting MPs, especially those who voted for parliament to have a meaningful vote on the final deal
The Treasury
The Civil Service
Broadcasters, especially the BBC, for being "unpatriotic", i.e. asking awkward questions as they're supposed to
The Irish government
The SNP
Judges (aka enemies of the people for the heinous crime of doing their job)

Unfortunately, if the likes of Question Time are any guide, there are still a lot of Leave voters who - so far at least - are willing to swallow the rhetoric blaming everyone else, especially "Brussels bullies", for Brexit turning into a farce. Presumably because it's much more comforting to blame someone else rather than admit that supporting something which looks as though it's going to be a train wreck might not have been such a good idea after all.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 11, 2018, 12:10:46 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on February 10, 2018, 04:23:20 PM
Those clouds have been on the horizon for ages for anyone to see. The current spin is that we got a last-minute deal in phase one and the same will happen in phase two, which overlooks the fact that May "achieved" the phase one deal with a combination of (a) agreeing to what the EU wanted and (b) kicking the really intractable problems like the Irish border down the road. The trouble with that "strategy" is that you can only kick a problem down the road for so long and then you run out of road. That position is fast approaching.

I think the Irish issue might be kicked down the road one more time...
The EU will try to compromise over a transitional regime to keep NI in the customs union and the internal market for now, and to avoid economic disruption and buy time for EU companies to prepare for Brexit (read: divert supply chains if necessary). It also keeps the current EU budget afloat.

However, the UK will not be given a say in EU decision making after it leaves. The concession will likely to be on free movement/immigration .

An immediate hard Brexit will occur if the UK govt refuses to close a deal on transition without the desired trade deal  (which is never going to happen....)

The mood in the European capitals is that with this UK govt hard Brexit is quite likely. All efforts are focused on damage control and the transitional period.

QuoteThe list of people and institutions who have been accused of trying to sabotage Brexit is already quite long. Those I can think of of the top of my head are:

The EU (obviously)
Remain voters (aka Remoaners/saboteurs etc.)
Remain-supporting MPs, especially those who voted for parliament to have a meaningful vote on the final deal
The Treasury
The Civil Service
Broadcasters, especially the BBC, for being "unpatriotic", i.e. asking awkward questions as they're supposed to
The Irish government
The SNP
Judges (aka enemies of the people for the heinous crime of doing their job)

Soon the House of Lords can be added to that list...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on February 11, 2018, 04:28:25 PM
Quote from: Que on February 11, 2018, 12:10:46 AM
I think the Irish issue might be kicked down the road one more time...
The EU will try to compromise over a transitional regime to keep NI in the customs union and the internal market for now, and to avoid economic disruption and buy time for EU companies to prepare for Brexit (read: divert supply chains if necessary). It also keeps the current EU budget afloat.

I'm sure May will use up every last millimetre of that road but it's still going to run out, and soon. Then she'll have to decide which way to jump. She'll probably choose the "off the cliff" option.

QuoteAn immediate hard Brexit will occur if the UK govt refuses to close a deal on transition without the desired trade deal  (which is never going to happen....)

The mood in the European capitals is that with this UK govt hard Brexit is quite likely. All efforts are focused on damage control and the transitional period.

When you look at the influence the likes of Rees Mogg and the European Research Group now wield, a hard Brexit does indeed look a very distinct possibility. I saw a recent comment online which said that Brexit may be disaster capitalism on a grand scale, as the chaos of falling off a cliff edge would create some lucrative opportunities for those bankrolling it. It's certainly plausible.

QuoteSoon the House of Lords can be added to that list...

Q

Indeed, I'm sure the list will get longer before too long. Not to worry though, apparently Boris Johnson will be giving a speech designed to appeal to remainers and unite the country, so there's that to look forward to. Stop laughing.

What is truly extraordinary is that crunch time is fast approaching and yet nothing has changed: Peter Bone, one of the most fanatical supporters of a hard Brexit, was interviewed just a few days ago and stated that of course the Irish government won't put up a hard border. And if they do, that's down to them. As if a hard border wasn't a direct consequence of a hard Brexit. I don't know if he's aware of that but is saying otherwise so he can carry on blaming Ireland and the EU should a hard border return, or if he genuinely believes what he's saying, in which case he has no idea what he's talking about. Either way, they're still spouting this crap now, just as they have been since the referendum. Similarly, leave voters on Question Time are still offering the same old pearls of wisdom: "we're a big economy so of course the EU will want to trade with us, we'll be fine", "just have some faith", etc.. This sums it up well:

https://twitter.com/grahamlithgow/status/951589776448262144/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.redcafe.net%2Fthreads%2Fquestion-time-this-week.362105%2Fpage-62 (https://twitter.com/grahamlithgow/status/951589776448262144/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.redcafe.net%2Fthreads%2Fquestion-time-this-week.362105%2Fpage-62) 
 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 17, 2018, 01:17:07 AM
Layoffs Arrive in Brexit Britain, and Auto Workers Are Up First (Bloomberg) (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-16/layoffs-arrive-in-brexit-britain-and-auto-workers-are-up-first)

Not to worry, it's all just scaremongering..... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on February 17, 2018, 01:23:14 AM
The security issue will be interesting.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 17, 2018, 01:41:25 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on February 17, 2018, 01:23:14 AM
The security issue will be interesting.

Indeed.....May wants a whole separate treaty on it, which is entirely possible.

The catch however is that the ECJ oversees the legal regime of these EU security arrangements.....

The billion pound question is therefore: is the UK going to submit itself to the jurisdiction of this evil foreign institution?

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on February 17, 2018, 02:17:41 AM
Quote from: Que on February 17, 2018, 01:41:25 AM
Indeed.....May wants a whole separate treaty on it, which is entirely possible.

The catch however is that the ECJ oversees the legal regime of these EU security arrangements.....

The billion pound question is therefore: is the UK going to submit itself to the jurisdiction of this evil foreign institution?

Q

Let's hope so!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on February 17, 2018, 05:00:55 AM
Jaw-dropper for this hour:

'Ideal' UK-US trade deal would see banned products sold in post-Brexit Britain, says accidentally released memo


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/17/revealed-us-uk-rightwing-thinktanks-talks-to-ditch-eu-safety-checks          (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/17/revealed-us-uk-rightwing-thinktanks-talks-to-ditch-eu-safety-checks)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on February 17, 2018, 05:14:30 AM
Quote from: nodogen on February 17, 2018, 05:00:55 AM
Jaw-dropper for this hour:

'Ideal' UK-US trade deal would see banned products sold in post-Brexit Britain, says accidentally released memo


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/17/revealed-us-uk-rightwing-thinktanks-talks-to-ditch-eu-safety-checks          (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/17/revealed-us-uk-rightwing-thinktanks-talks-to-ditch-eu-safety-checks)

Er....remoaning saboteurs......talking down the country......believe in Britain, etc.. This is clearly just more Project Fear.....

QuoteIt also advocates tearing up the EU's "precautionary principle", under which traders have to prove something is safe before it is sold, rather than waiting for it to be proved unsafe.

....or maybe not. Jesus. Presumably the precautionary principle is an example of that "burdensome EU red tape which is holding us back".

This has only come out because it was accidentally published online. So letting leave voters know what Brexit really means clearly isn't on the agenda. Not until it's too late anyway. Still, er........taking back control!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on February 17, 2018, 05:22:09 AM
The document was « not meant for public consumption ». Unpalatable indeed...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on February 19, 2018, 04:02:49 PM
Quote from: nodogen on February 17, 2018, 05:00:55 AM
Jaw-dropper for this hour:

'Ideal' UK-US trade deal would see banned products sold in post-Brexit Britain, says accidentally released memo


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/17/revealed-us-uk-rightwing-thinktanks-talks-to-ditch-eu-safety-checks          (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/17/revealed-us-uk-rightwing-thinktanks-talks-to-ditch-eu-safety-checks)

Another jaw-dropper: it seems the Brexit ultras are finally beginning to realise that the Good Friday Agreement/Irish border issue is likely to prove an insurmountable obstacle to their beloved hard Brexit. Good news, right? Well, unfortunately not. We can tell that the penny has begun to drop because some of the hardliners are beginning to talk down the GFA: Hannan says it has failed, Paterson has supported a column arguing that it has run its course, and Hoey is at it as well.

So, having realised that this issue throws an almighty spanner in the works of a hard Brexit, their response is to shrug their shoulders and dismiss the GFA. These people really are prepared to pay any price for a hard Brexit (though they won't be the ones paying) - including the trashing of the GFA with all the dangers that go with that. Incredible. I was about to say they can't sink any lower than this, but every time I think that, they prove me wrong. What an absolute shitshow this is.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 20, 2018, 01:43:47 PM
So, you vote to leave the EU to get rid of all these EU immigrants...

And before you know it, you need non-EU immigrants to replace them:


Leading Brexiter admits supply of labour from EU27 falling so 'we'll need to look further afield' (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/20/farmers-tell-gove-lack-of-migrant-workers-now-mission-critical)


Well, that's just freaking hilarious.....  :D

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on February 20, 2018, 02:57:45 PM
Quote from: Que on February 20, 2018, 01:43:47 PM
So, you vote to leave the EU to get rid of all these EU immigrants...

And before you know it, you need non-EU immigrants to replace them:


Leading Brexiter admits supply of labour from EU27 falling so 'we'll need to look further afield' (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/20/farmers-tell-gove-lack-of-migrant-workers-now-mission-critical)


Well, that's just freaking hilarious.....  :D


Q


Even that will be spun as somehow the EU's fault.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: kishnevi on February 20, 2018, 05:56:56 PM
Easy solution.

The UK will take in all the immigrants Trump wants to keep out. Perhaps a special program for all the Dreamers he'll deport.
The US meantime will take in the EU immigrants, since they're from Norway and similar countries.

Win win for everyone.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on February 28, 2018, 05:25:07 AM
"Sir John Major calls on Theresa May to give all MPs and ministers a free vote in the Commons on her final Brexit deal. From a former Tory PM, that's a huge challenge to her authority."

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/968850126004477953
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 28, 2018, 10:57:41 PM
Brexit: 10 observations on the draft withdrawal agreement

The devils will emerge from the detail of the EU's document

David Allen Green (Financial Times)

The European Commission's draft withdrawal agreement for Brexit was published a few hours ago. The intended deal will address only the arrangements for withdrawal, including transition. The future trade, security and other relationships between the EU and the UK will be the subject of other intended agreements. It is too soon for anyone to have digested all the detail of the document, and indeed it may be weeks before some of the implications of the provisions become clear. That is the nature of complex legal instruments. But, at this stage, there are some observations to be made about the draft itself and how it may affect the wider process of the intended departure of Britain from the EU.

The first thing to say is that it is a welcome development that there is a draft in existence. We are almost one year on from the Article 50 notification and nearly two years on from the referendum. Much of the discussion on Brexit has been in general, even strident terms. Now there is something more substantial to focus on, and to argue about.

This leads to the second point. This draft has been produced by the EU, not Britain. As the UK is the departing member state one would have expected that the onus would be on the UK to produce the document. This, however, it may never have done. The EU has in effect stepped in and pushed the process forward. What the EU's fallback Brexit plan means for Northern Ireland Play video

So to the third thing: those Brexit supporters who object to the contents of this draft should ask why the UK did not bother to prepare its own version. In both diplomatic and commercial negotiations, the party that produces the first draft invariably starts with and keeps the advantage until the deal is done. For Britain not to have provided its own document is nearly as negligent as sending the Article 50 notification without preparation in the first place. Imagine if the UK had prepared its own draft withdrawal agreement before sending the notification.

The fourth point is that it is still a draft. It is only February and the agreement needs to be in final form by October so it can be approved and ratified in good time for the intended departure date of 29 March 2019. There will be devils in the detail and those devils will emerge. Small things and even large parts will need to be revised and amended. If the UK does not like bits of it, or if provisions can be improved, then there is sufficient time.

But the fifth thing is that this is not a draft out of nowhere. Most of it is merely the translation into formal legal prose of December's joint report. That key document, in turn, followed an array of published position papers and negotiation documents. There is a certain neatness in how the draft ties together the strands. It is almost as if the EU knew what it was doing and working towards all along.

Which leads to the sixth point: for all the political noise that met the publication of the draft on Wednesday, the EU can plausibly point back to the December report and so on and say that there is nothing new. It would seem that the intention of Brussels is for the draft not to contain any surprises. If anyone is shocked and outraged, that is no doubt because they have not being paying attention. The draft shows how well the EU has done with the withdrawal issues, other than Ireland. On first reading there is little here to which the EU had not gained assent by December. On citizenship and the financial settlement there is already apparent consensus on almost every point: this just records that.

Turning to the new document itself, the seventh observation is that it is clear and well drafted. There is a Euclidean-like geometry to the parts, titles and chapters which enables the reader to see how these inter-relate. There are detailed notes and references. On first reading, few passages seemed obscure. If there is disagreement, then at least one will be able to see what the dispute is about. The draft is far more a legal document than a diplomatic one.

The eighth point is to note how the Irish border issue has been addressed. The proposals are set out in a schedule as a "protocol". As with the December joint report, the provisions are there as a default backstop until and unless there is a more detailed agreement on the points. The EU is still open to the UK making its own positive proposals. In this draft, Brussels is in effect saying it has done its part. The simple logic of the Irish border after Brexit Key points from Brussels' text on Brexit treaty

The penultimate thing is that this is intended to be an agreement with bite. There are real and effective means of governance and enforcement, including a rather robust provision for "suspension of [the UK's] benefits". The document is not aspirational: once executed it is intended practically to bind the UK. This means Britain cannot agree to the provisions of the agreement without intending to fulfil them. That will concentrate minds wonderfully.

Finally, this draft agreement perhaps makes Brexit more certain than before. Of course, the law is one thing and politics is another. The unstable domestic politics and weak and incompetent British government make any accurate forecasts impossible. Nobody knows for certain what will happen with Brexit. But the EU shows little interest in extending the Article 50 period or encouraging the UK to revoke the notification. So unless the UK somehow fundamentally shifts its position on Brexit, or refuses to sign the withdrawal agreement before March 2019, the agreement will be a further illustration of "Brexit by timetable". And, all other things being equal, the UK will leave the EU on terms prescribed by the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on March 01, 2018, 12:17:35 AM
Quote from: Jeffrey Smith on February 20, 2018, 05:56:56 PM

The US meantime will take in the EU immigrants, since they're from Norway and similar countries.

Holy crap. Do we look stupid?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 01, 2018, 09:36:45 AM
Quote from: The new erato on March 01, 2018, 12:17:35 AM
Holy crap. Do we look stupid?

Another reason Norwegians are the worst

They're already the happiest people in the world. Now they're taking home all the medals too.
(https://www.politico.eu/article/norway-olympics-another-reason-scandinavians-are-the-worst-winter-olympics-south-korea-sport/)

:D   :D

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 01, 2018, 04:32:57 PM
May has rejected the texts proposed by the EU and is expected to anounce further concrete insights on the UK's wishes:

Mrs May is expected to set out five tests to guide the UK in negotiations:

That any deal must respect the referendum result.
That any deal must not break down.
That any deal must protect jobs and security.
That any deal must be "consistent with the kind of country we want to be" - modern, outward-looking and tolerant.
That any agreement must bring the country together


http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43250035

Another "pie in the sky"..... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 01, 2018, 11:29:26 PM
Quote from: Que on March 01, 2018, 04:32:57 PM

Another "pie in the sky"..... ::)

Q

On second thought.... a "soft" Brexit would meet four out of the five tests developed by May.... ::)

Except for bringing the country together.... though I doubt a majority of the population would oppose a soft Brexit.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 02, 2018, 10:03:20 AM
Quote from: Que on March 01, 2018, 04:32:57 PM
May has rejected the texts proposed by the EU and is expected to anounce further concrete insights on the UK's wishes:

Mrs May is expected to set out five tests to guide the UK in negotiations:

That any deal must respect the referendum result.
That any deal must not break down.
That any deal must protect jobs and security.
That any deal must be "consistent with the kind of country we want to be" - modern, outward-looking and tolerant.
That any agreement must bring the country together


http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43250035

Another "pie in the sky"..... ::)

Q

That's very unfair. May has explained that we want a good deal that does nice and fluffy things, and not a bad deal that does mean and nasty things. You can't get much clearer than that.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 03, 2018, 06:12:26 AM
Brexit is a gift that keeps on giving...... :D

Therese May stated that she wants the "broadest and deepest possible partnership" between the UK and EU.

Newsflash: such an arrangement does indeed exist, it is called membership of the European Union....

And as a "cherry on cake" - so to speak  ;) - she announced the desire for the continued (associative) membership of several EU agencies...
Like on medicine (EMA, that is moving from London to Amsterdam) chemicals and aviation. I suspect the same will apply to Euratom and that the list will grow much longer. The UK earlier expressed the desire to stay in Europol, for instance.

Q



Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 03, 2018, 03:34:18 PM
Another epistle from the 18th century:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/03/jacob-rees-mogg-attacks-absurd-eu-plan-for-irish-border (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/03/jacob-rees-mogg-attacks-absurd-eu-plan-for-irish-border)

Apparently it's Michel Barnier showing disregard for the Good Friday Agreement. Not the Brexiters. Definitely not. Oh no.

It's worth giving an example of what is often referred to as Rees Mogg's authenticity:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-moggmentum-run-for-tory-leader-leadership-election-contest-conservative-party-a7891196.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-moggmentum-run-for-tory-leader-leadership-election-contest-conservative-party-a7891196.html)

QuoteBetween 2011 and 2016, according to the TheyWorkForYou website, Mr Rees-Mogg voted 14 times against measures that would have given higher benefits over longer periods for those unable to work due to illness or disability.

In February 2012, for example, he voted against allowing cancer patients to be excused from the 365-day limit on receiving contributions-based Employment and Support Allowance.

What a guy. He would seem to be an authentic bastard, which to be fair is authenticity of a sort.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 04, 2018, 12:29:48 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on March 03, 2018, 03:34:18 PM
Another epistle from the 18th century:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/03/jacob-rees-mogg-attacks-absurd-eu-plan-for-irish-border (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/03/jacob-rees-mogg-attacks-absurd-eu-plan-for-irish-border)

Apparently it's Michel Barnier showing disregard for the Good Friday Agreement. Not the Brexiters. Definitely not. Oh no.

It's worth giving an example of what is often referred to as Rees Mogg's authenticity:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-moggmentum-run-for-tory-leader-leadership-election-contest-conservative-party-a7891196.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-moggmentum-run-for-tory-leader-leadership-election-contest-conservative-party-a7891196.html)

What a guy. He would seem to be an authentic bastard, which to be fair is authenticity of a sort.

He decribes the future in 19th century political idiom: the UK as a future "vassal state" (after a soft Brexit) and Northern Ireland as a EU "protectorate".... Quite a grim picture!  :)

If he would come to power the reactionary revolution would go into the next phase.

Last Wednesday, a survey of Tory party members by the ConservativeHome website showed that Mr Rees-Mogg was now their second most popular choice to succeed Ms May as leader, after Brexit Secretary David Davis.

The Tories's taste in leadership is rather disconcerting..... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 04, 2018, 01:08:59 PM
Quote from: Que on March 04, 2018, 12:29:48 AM
He decribes the future in 19th century political idiom: the UK as a future "vassal state" (after a soft Brexit) and Northern Ireland as a EU "protectorate".... Quite a grim picture!  :)

If he would come to power the reactionary revolution would go into the next phase.

Last Wednesday, a survey of Tory party members by the ConservativeHome website showed that Mr Rees-Mogg was now their second most popular choice to succeed Ms May as leader, after Brexit Secretary David Davis.

The Tories's taste in leadership is rather disconcerting..... ::)

Q

Unfortunately there are quite a few people in the UK who fall for this nonsense. If you can bear to do it, take a look at the comments on youtube under a Rees Mogg video - the ones posted by his witless fanboys with titles like "Rees Mogg absolutely DESTROYS x,y,z...". You'll see a graphic illustration of the extraordinary level of utter shite a British politician can get away with as long as he has a plummy accent and drops in the odd bit of Latin here and there. That's all it takes to convince these morons that Rees Mogg is a political colossus with a towering intellect.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 04, 2018, 09:46:53 PM
An example of "cakeism":

May defends stance on post-Brexit financial services rules (https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-may/may-defends-stance-on-post-brexit-financial-services-rules-idUKKBN1GG0HC)

May rejects the continuation of the current system of "passporting rights" - free access to the internal market through regulatory alignment - for the financial sector,  because she doesn't want the UK to be a "rule taker.

Fine, but then she still wants free access to the internal market  for the British financial sector....
So, the EU would have to allow British financial companies to compete freely on the EU market, while they don't have to abide by the same rules? ??? Does she think the EU is nuts? ::)

Q


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 05, 2018, 05:35:26 AM
Quote from: Que on March 04, 2018, 09:46:53 PM
So, the EU would have to allow British financial companies to compete freely on the EU market, while they don't have to abide by the same rules? ??? Does she think the EU is nuts? ::)

Q

Remember, "they need us more than we need them".

Quote"If we were to accept'passporting' we'd just be a rule taker, we'd have to abide by the rules that were being set elsewhere," May said in the interview with the BBC.

If only there were a way to retain passporting rights while also having a say in the rules.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 05, 2018, 10:00:06 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on March 05, 2018, 05:35:26 AM
Remember, "they need us more than we need them".

I think she's signing the death sentence of the London City. The UK has missed the opportunity to turn into an off shore tax and money laundering paradise by several years....considering the current global climb down on those practices. The UK would be a pariah in the international financial community.

QuoteIf only there were a way to retain passporting rights while also having a say in the rules.

Indeed, just imagine....  ;)

Throwing away the position of a global financial hotpot, it's sheer madness....  ???

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 05, 2018, 03:11:37 PM
Quote from: Que on March 05, 2018, 10:00:06 AM
I think she's signing the death sentence of the London City. The UK has missed the opportunity to turn into an off shore tax and money laundering paradise by several years....considering the current global climb down on those practices. The UK would be a pariah in the international financial community.

As long as the Brexit ultras get their hard Brexit they're not bothered. They'll try to sell it as "global buccaneering Britain", though admittedly that might not work out too well once reality bites. Screeching headlines in the pro-Brexit rags won't do them much good when it turns out that gutting the NHS and welfare state as we know them is the price of the UK becoming Tax Haven-on-Thames. Though such is the utter venality of these people that as long as they've made a killing out of it, they probably won't care. Leave another party to try clearing up the mess and then accuse them of "betraying the will of the people".

QuoteIndeed, just imagine....  ;)

Throwing away the position of a global financial hotpot, it's sheer madness....  ???

Q

From the point of view of the good of the country, yes. But in fairness, how can they turn us into a tax haven if we're still in the EU when the EU's new tax evasion rules come into effect?  As (bad) luck would have it, we'll just have left by then. I've also seen suggestions that there are prominent Brexiteers with connections to hedge funds that aren't all that keen on EU scrutiny, which they view as another urgent reason for getting us out just in time. Not sure if that's true, but to say that it's plausible would be an understatement.

It's not all bad news though, there's been a breakthrough on the Irish border issue!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/05/post-brexit-irish-border-could-be-like-us-canada-says-may (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/05/post-brexit-irish-border-could-be-like-us-canada-says-may)

QuoteLeo Varadkar told reporters on Monday evening that it was out of the question.
"I visited the Canada/US border back in August and saw physical infrastructure with customs posts, people in uniforms with arms and dogs and that is definitely not a solution that we could possibly entertain," he said.

This must be an example of the "creative thinking" Theresa May is always talking about. Applying the US-Canada border model to the Irish border. What a stroke of genius. What could possibly go wrong?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on March 05, 2018, 06:11:59 PM
The US/Canada border is as hard as they get, believe me. It's easier to detect a smile on a boulder than on a US customs agent.

Zero $ exemption for goods brought in on same day crossing and very low $ exemption for overnight stays. Zero tolerance for ignoring the law or for white lies: you're flagged for life.

There's even a tv show about border crossings (both ways) and the trouble people get into when trying to bring in something on the other side. Add to that the hours of waiting time when reentering the country after a long weekend...

Have a good time sorting out your border issues !  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 05, 2018, 09:22:42 PM
Another example of a "soft border" I have seen mentioned, is the border between Norway (non-EU) and Sweden (EU).

But then again, EFTA-member Norway is part of the European internal market and local conditions in terms of volume of trading movements might be different...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 06, 2018, 04:06:55 AM
Quote from: Que on March 05, 2018, 09:22:42 PM
Another example of a "soft border" I have seen mentioned, is the border between Norway (non-EU) and Sweden (EU).

But then again, EFTA-member Norway is part of the European internal market and local conditions in terms of volume of trading movements might be different...

Q

I've seen that mentioned as well, but if I remember rightly the article I read about it said that there are still some checks at that border. Even then, as you say, Norway is part of the single market (though not, I believe, the customs union).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on March 06, 2018, 06:18:06 AM
Here's another one of those annoying intellectual boffin types trying to stop The Will of The People:

"Brain prize winner calls Brexit a 'disaster' for the NHS and science"

- https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/mar/06/brain-prize-winner-calls-brexit-a-disaster-for-the-nhs-and-science        (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/mar/06/brain-prize-winner-calls-brexit-a-disaster-for-the-nhs-and-science)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 06, 2018, 10:14:36 PM
A must-read on sentiments on Brexit and the UK in the rest of the EU, and what drives their strategy: a lack of trust and self preservation.

Britain is still clueless about the EU's motives in Brexit negotiations (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/06/britain-eu-motives-brexit)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on March 06, 2018, 10:55:02 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on March 06, 2018, 04:06:55 AM
I've seen that mentioned as well, but if I remember rightly the article I read about it said that there are still some checks at that border. Even then, as you say, Norway is part of the single market (though not, I believe, the customs union).
We're within Schengen. And not the customs union (which mean I can receive small CD packages VAT free from the EU).

If the UK want to remain within Schengen they must accept free flow of labor. If not, there will be full border controls (like when I entered Hungary from Roumania this summer). Something to look forward to for alle Brits. ;)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on March 06, 2018, 11:28:09 PM
Quote from: The new erato on March 06, 2018, 10:55:02 PM(which mean I can receive small CD packages VAT free from the EU).
HAH! Finally a comprehensible motive for Brexit!  :D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on March 06, 2018, 11:37:09 PM
Quote from: Christo on March 06, 2018, 11:28:09 PM
HAH! Finally a comprehensible motive for Brexit!  :D
Yes, but only as long as they are so small that they cannot be bothered to handle them (about GB 30). Above that, they are slammed with full Norwegian VAT + fees for the processing.

In fact I wouldn't mind paying VAT, it's the fees that are killer......
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 09, 2018, 11:39:37 PM
(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2Ffb99deae-2302-11e8-ae48-60d3531b7d11?source=next&fit=scale-down&width=900)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 09, 2018, 11:49:14 PM
Regional shares of local GDP exposed to Brexit:

(http://binarystore.wiley.com/store/10.1111/pirs.12334/asset/image_n/pirs12334-fig-0002.png?v=1&t=jel4f3cm&s=03c1ad3eb5c6f0b2826e305ee13b98066ba907a3)

Research by the Dutch Erasmus University Rotterdam: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/pirs.12334/full

Q

PS It seems that the Irish have every right to be extremely angry with their neighbours.....  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 10, 2018, 05:19:48 PM
Quote from: Que on March 09, 2018, 11:49:14 PM
Regional shares of local GDP exposed to Brexit:

(http://binarystore.wiley.com/store/10.1111/pirs.12334/asset/image_n/pirs12334-fig-0002.png?v=1&t=jel4f3cm&s=03c1ad3eb5c6f0b2826e305ee13b98066ba907a3)

Research by the Dutch Erasmus University Rotterdam: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/pirs.12334/full

Q

PS It seems that the Irish have every right to be extremely angry with their neighbours.....  ::)

The fact that the Brexiters appear to have given no thought prior to (and precious little since) the referendum to finding a workable solution to the Irish border problem is enough on its own to justify Irish anger with the UK. It smacks of complacency, arrogance and ignorance in equal measure. Dismissing the issue by claiming that it can all be sorted out with technological solutions that don't appear to even exist isn't going to cut it. And if they want their precious hard Brexit to happen they'll have to find a workable solution, because without one that satisfies both Ireland and the EU a hard Brexit won't be happening.

It's particularly disgusting to hear them accuse the EU of using the Irish border as an excuse for thwarting Brexit. A more accurate statement would be that they're embarrassed that Ireland and the EU asking for a solution (to a problem created by the UK) is drawing attention to their contemptuous lack of thought about an immensely serious issue.

Also somewhat ironic is hearing hardline Brexiters state that the Irish border issue should not be allowed to thwart the will of the people as expressed in a referendum. That does rather overlook the fact that the Good Friday Agreement was implemented after joint referendums held in Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic which both resulted in massive majorities in favour of the agreement - about 71% in favour in the north and 94% in the south if I remember rightly (not much doubt about "the will of the people" there, unlike the near 50-50 split of the Brexit referendum). But a hard Brexit means a hard border, and a hard border would be a clear violation of the GFA - and thus a clear violation of the will of the people of the island of Ireland on both sides of the border. So those Brexiteers saying that we should have a hard Brexit to honour the referendum even if that means a hard border need to answer the question: why should the Brexit vote be allowed to trample all over the results of not just one, but two referendums? I'm not holding my breath for them to find an answer to that one. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: kishnevi on March 10, 2018, 07:31:15 PM
I think the Brexiteers are guided by a simple assumption of very doubtful validity: that the EU and Ireland need the UK more than the UK needs them.

Tangential question: who exactly is qualified to vote in the UK (citizenship, I assume, but what else?), and what is involved in the process of registering and then casting a vote (for instance, what sort of ID)?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 11, 2018, 01:40:28 AM
When "going it alone" means you're going to be eaten by a larger animal.....  ::)

Self-styled Mr Brexit takes aim at the UK (http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/self-styled-mr-brexit-takes-aim-at-the-uk-1-5428611)


The 'open skies' row shows how Trump will exploit Brexit at Britain's cost

As things stand, Britain is set to leave the EU-US 'Open skies treaty' when it leaves the EU. In order to ensure planes can still fly, Britain will need to negotiate a replacement agreement with the US.

However, according to an explosive FT report this week, the US offered Britain in January a far worse "open skies" deal after Brexit than it currently has as an EU member. According to their report, accepting such a deal could seriously damage the flying rights of major UK airlines and – in the event of failure – see flights grounded between the two countries. (https://www.businessinsider.nl/open-skies-us-trade-deal-brexit-trump-2018-3/)

It does however give an entire new meaning to the "Special Relationship"....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: NikF on March 11, 2018, 03:55:08 AM
Quote from: Jeffrey Smith on March 10, 2018, 07:31:15 PM
I think the Brexiteers are guided by a simple assumption of very doubtful validity: that the EU and Ireland need the UK more than the UK needs them.

Tangential question: who exactly is qualified to vote in the UK (citizenship, I assume, but what else?), and what is involved in the process of registering and then casting a vote (for instance, what sort of ID)?

You need to be registered on the Electoral Roll (Register) and usually this happens by filling in a form delivered to every household or by registering online.

In Northern Ireland, England and Wales you can register aged 17 but only vote when 18.

In Scotland you can register when you are 14 and can vote in Scottish parliament elections and local elections when you're 16. At 18 you can currently vote in UK and European parliament elections.

Before the day of the vote you receive a card through the post. It contains the address of your voting station. You go there and either hand over the card to the staff or simply give them your name and address. Note that you aren't required to bring the card or any ID, but this is due to change in 2019 or 2020.

That's all I know.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 11, 2018, 05:34:48 AM
Brexit: why Britain's hopes for a special financial services deal are set to be dashed (https://theconversation.com/brexit-why-britains-hopes-for-a-special-financial-services-deal-are-set-to-be-dashed-93018)


Hammond is trying to pick the biggest cherry of them all for the "Jewel in the Crown" of the UK economy: the financial services sector.

Unless the UK by some miraculous political turn of events stays part of the internal market, this plan is not going to fly....

To save what it can of the position of the City, the only option for the UK would be the "Singapore model".
Which, as pointed out in the article would set the UK on a collision course with the EU and would likely sever all economic ties.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: kishnevi on March 11, 2018, 07:11:43 AM
Quote from: NikF on March 11, 2018, 03:55:08 AM
You need to be registered on the Electoral Roll (Register) and usually this happens by filling in a form delivered to every household or by registering online.

In Northern Ireland, England and Wales you can register aged 17 but only vote when 18.

In Scotland you can register when you are 14 and can vote in Scottish parliament elections and local elections when you're 16. At 18 you can currently vote in UK and European parliament elections.

Before the day of the vote you receive a card through the post. It contains the address of your voting station. You go there and either hand over the card to the staff or simply give them your name and address. Note that you aren't required to bring the card or any ID, but this is due to change in 2019 or 2020.

That's all I know.
Thanks.  Your system would give an American conservative a case of the tantrums.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: NikF on March 11, 2018, 07:27:36 AM
Quote from: Jeffrey Smith on March 11, 2018, 07:11:43 AM
Thanks.  Your system would give an American conservative a case of the tantrums.

You're welcome. And yeah, the whole process seems free and easy and kind of quaint.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on March 11, 2018, 07:41:32 AM
Quote from: Jeffrey Smith on March 11, 2018, 07:11:43 AM
Thanks.  Your system would give an American conservative a case of the tantrums.
More or less similar to Norway, except that you are automatically registered when you are on the national scrolls (as all are required to be), and that you need to bring some ID. Bring your voters card which is sent to your registered adress some weeks in advance, and bring some ID. Though you can still vote without your card, but then the vote is handled somewhat differently when counted.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: North Star on March 11, 2018, 09:52:42 AM
Quote from: The new erato on March 11, 2018, 07:41:32 AM
More or less similar to Norway, except that you are automatically registered when you are on the national scrolls (as all are required to be), and that you need to bring some ID. Bring your voters card which is sent to your registered adress some weeks in advance, and bring some ID. Though you can still vote without your card, but then the vote is handled somewhat differently when counted.
Sounds about the same as here. And the government will pay for your ID if you can't afford it.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on March 11, 2018, 12:58:35 PM
Interesting debate going on about Vince Cable's Brexit comments:

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/liberal-democrats/news/93511/vince-cable-says-some-brexit-voters-nostalgic

http://www.cityam.com/282032/vince-cable-slammed-white-faces-brexit-slur
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 19, 2018, 05:41:15 PM
Our strong and stable prime minister has secured another Brexit victory with the transition deal, cunningly outfoxing the EU by giving them pretty much everything they were asking for. Johnny Foreigner never saw that coming! Well actually they probably did.

So, having agreed a back stop solution to the Irish border issue in December, then saying we didn't agree to it after all, we're now fully committed to it. Again. At least for now, unless Arlene says otherwise. Which she might. Though we still don't like the wording because:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/19/uk-and-eu-agree-terms-for-brexit-transition-deal (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/19/uk-and-eu-agree-terms-for-brexit-transition-deal)

QuoteDowning Street wants inclusion in the text of its promise to avoid the need for border checks between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, something Brussels says is a strictly domestic issue.

Bloody EU, not interfering in our affairs....


It seems increasingly clear that where Brexit is concerned, all roads lead to the Irish border. The UK government has suggested two "solutions" which would allow the hard Brexiteers to get their way without trashing the Good Friday Agreement: the first is if some magical technological solution for an open border is found, of which there is precious little sign so far. It would appear that no such border currently exists anywhere in the world, so if such a solution is to be found, it will have to be something which doesn't yet exist. Even then, it will have to be sufficiently convincing to satisfy both the EU and the Irish government that it's worth allowing the Irish border to be used as a guinea pig to see if it works.

The other option for keeping an open border is, according to the UK government, getting a trade deal with the EU which is so good that it avoids the need for border checks. How this is to be achieved while sticking to the government's red lines of leaving the single market and customs union has yet to be explained in detail. Or indeed explained at all.

If we don't get a magical new technological solution or the aforementioned have-our-cake-and-eat-it trade deal, it will presumably come down to a choice between two options:

1. The back stop option for the Irish border kicks in, in which case the whole UK stays in/remains extremely closely aligned with the customs union and single market to keep the border open - i.e. the softest possible Brexit (allowing just Northern Ireland to stay in the CU/SM is of course not an option because of Arlene & co.). Hardcore Leave voters, the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg and the Tory press explode with rage. Such a deal would almost certainly not get through the Commons.

2. May caves in to the ultras and we get a hard border, a hard Brexit and the smoking ruins of the GFA. Hardcore Leave voters, the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg and the Tory press are ecstatic, while everyone else explodes with rage. As with option 1, it's virtually inconceivable that such a deal would get through the Commons.

As much as I want this repulsive shower of bastards out of office, if it does come down to one of these two options it's probably better if they're the ones who have to tell the public what those options are. Let them own this fiasco.


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 19, 2018, 11:36:01 PM
The UK govt backed down and both parties fell back on the terms agreed in december, which according to Davies were ""only guidelines".

I think this is the first step towards BINO ("Brexit in name only"), in which Britain stays within the customs union and the internal market. Simply because it's economic suicide to anything otherwise.... A bonus is that BINO also resolves the Irish issue.

However, with the transition deal alone does not mean all dangers are successfully avoided (for now):

1. By not longer being a member of the Union, the UK will no longer be a party to treaties concluded between the EU with other countries. A good illustration is the "Open Skies Agreement" on avation between the US and the EU.

This will become a MAJOR problem, and it it will hurt the UK economy immediately.....

2. The issue of Gibraltar is still outstanding. Without an bilateral agreement between the UK and Spain, Gibraltar might be excluded from the transition deal and effectively "cut off" from the internal market. To me it seems clear what the Spanish conditions are: joint control of the airport, which lies partly on territory disputed by Spain, and the end of Gibraltar as a tax evasion haven.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on March 20, 2018, 09:12:24 AM
You are way ahead of time Que.  Several member states do not accept the terms of the transitional agreement.

For them Barnier is a softee.

Their identity hasnt been disclosed yet, but you can make guesses...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 24, 2018, 02:14:55 AM
The funny side of Brexit....  :D

Brexit: Leavers in uproar over 'national humiliation' as blue passports contract 'handed to Franco-Dutch firm (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-blue-british-passports-contract-gemalto-national-humiliation-eu-exit-france-a8267761.html)

Anyway, it seems we're close to a transition deal.

Though whether it will ultimate apply to Gibraltar, remains to be seen......
I think the Spanish will drive a hard bargain. I've looked into to the territorial dispute - it appears that the land on which the airport has been built was taken into possession by the British during the Spanish civil war and is not covered by the treaty of Utrecht. Clever powerplay back in the day, but that doesn't make it legal....

As a military superpower Britain got away with it, but now the balance of power has shifted the British will be forced to make concessions.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 25, 2018, 12:32:12 AM
Informative:

Brexit transition: three misunderstandings about the deal explained:

1.Transition isn't membership

2.Transition doesn't solve problems of a cliff edge

3.Transition not a model for stable future relations (https://theconversation.com/brexit-transition-three-misunderstandings-about-the-deal-explained-93784)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on March 28, 2018, 08:34:59 AM
If you wonder what the expression Manger son chapeau means find out the 11 promises made by the brexiters which have been totally dropped

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2018/mar/28/11-brexit-promises-leavers-quietly-dropped (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2018/mar/28/11-brexit-promises-leavers-quietly-dropped)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: DaveF on March 28, 2018, 01:47:27 PM
Regarding the Irish border, there is a cluster of villages, all beginning Clon- (Clonooney, Clonagore, Cloniston) in a virtually detached portion of County Monaghan (Irish Republic), which are inaccessible except from Co. Fermanagh (Northern Ireland).  Since there don't appear to be any shops in any of these little places, one wonders whether the simplest shopping trip to the nearest town will involve passport checks at a hard border.  I think the problem facing the Irish border, which perhaps doesn't apply to those between other European nations, is that it wasn't drawn as a national border but as a series of British county ones, which themselves followed parish boundaries, with no thought of separating people living on either side.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: GioCar on March 28, 2018, 11:05:21 PM
The countdown has started, exactly one year to go.

To our British friends: one year to rethink? I believe games are over already, but hope really is hard to die.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 29, 2018, 02:53:36 PM
Quote from: GioCar on March 28, 2018, 11:05:21 PM
The countdown has started, exactly one year to go.

To our British friends: one year to rethink? I believe games are over already, but hope really is hard to die.

I'm afraid a rethink looks unlikely. There has been a small shift in the polls toward remain, but not by anywhere near enough to make much difference. Tonight's Newsnight discussion showed the problem: when asked if a Norway-type deal would be a betrayal, one woman's reply was that it would be. When asked why, her answer was, "well, it's not patriotic, is it?". Literally. That was her "logic". This kind of comment is by no means untypical of leave voters in such discussions. "Just get on with it", "we'll be fine", "have some faith in Britain" are the standard comments that come up time and time again. When you hear this drivel repeated so often it does become increasingly difficult not to conclude that we're allowing ourselves to be driven off a cliff in order to appease the dumbest person in the room. The leavers in the discussion naturally didn't want a vote on the final deal, so it apparently doesn't matter how bad the deal is as long as we leave. It would have been interesting if they'd been asked if they'd want a vote if we end up with a Norway-type deal - after all, that sort of deal would be a betrayal. Apparently.

One recent poll found that a majority of Brits view leaving the EU as more important than keeping Northern Ireland in the UK, so if the Irish border problem isn't solved, well many Brits are prepared to leave NI up shit creek in the name of Brexit. Or, to put it another way, if the price of the UK  "regaining its independence" is breaking up the UK, well so be it. I'd say that's a clear indication that there's not much rethinking going on. Or indeed much thinking of any sort.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 30, 2018, 12:27:22 AM
Thats seems to be my impression as well. The UK is going to sleep walk out of the EU, with most people taking a "wait-and-see" attitude. And they will have to wait a little bit longer before the reality of Brexit will appear, because the transition agreement will take most of the edge of things till January 1st 2021. I do think he UK will accept a special economic status for NI as a "fall back position"  - in name only, just to sell it to Brexiteers the myth of a magical technical solution will be promoted as a viable option until it is too late..

After the transition there will be a rude awakening. I suspect there will be either a Norway deal or a hard Brexit, probably nothing in between.The EU will not be willing to extend the transition, as the Tories now already hope for....
UK domestic politics will also play a decisive role by that time.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on April 22, 2018, 12:36:06 AM
Brexit and music.  Bleak prospects for the industry according to this article

http://www.howardgoodall.co.uk/articles-press-etc/brexit-and-music-theme-and-variations (http://www.howardgoodall.co.uk/articles-press-etc/brexit-and-music-theme-and-variations)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on April 22, 2018, 07:24:30 AM
If Goodall has been in this business for 40 years, he must remember pre-Schengen times of the 1970s and 80s. I might be totally missing a point here, but as far as recall musicians and conductors did travel all over Europe for concertizing, conducting etc. even then. So either they put up with bureaucratic nightmares everytime or it was not all that bad.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: drogulus on April 22, 2018, 08:18:22 AM

     Russia will keep attacking Britain unless Brexit meddling is handled (http://thehill.com/opinion/international/379183-russia-will-keep-attacking-britain-unless-brexit-meddling-is-handled)

     Observing from the US I naturally wonder how the Putin-Brexit connection is viewed. The article in the link suggests a reluctance to see Russian attacks in a systematic way. Is that so?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on April 23, 2018, 04:34:43 PM
Quote from: drogulus on April 22, 2018, 08:18:22 AM
     Russia will keep attacking Britain unless Brexit meddling is handled (http://thehill.com/opinion/international/379183-russia-will-keep-attacking-britain-unless-brexit-meddling-is-handled)

     Observing from the US I naturally wonder how the Putin-Brexit connection is viewed. The article in the link suggests a reluctance to see Russian attacks in a systematic way. Is that so?

There's a fair bit of cognitive dissonance going on where the whole Putin-Brexit connection is concerned. On the one hand, most Brits will readily agree with the proposition that Russia pumps out misinformation in order to meddle in other countries' affairs. I don't think there are many people on this side of the pond who have much trouble believing that the Russians interfered in the 2016 US election and in so doing may have secured Trump votes in vital states.

But with Brexit it's different, because if Leave voters were to admit that the same thing may have happened with the Brexit referendum campaign, they would have to acknowledge that they may be among the people who have been duped. It's one thing to laugh at those silly Americans for being fooled by Russian propaganda, but the idea that some of us Brits might have been taken in as well? An outrageous suggestion! The line that's generally been taken on the few occasions I've seen this discussed is that "no-one was fooled in to voting for Brexit", which does rather gloss over the fact that if the Russians did meddle in the Brexit campaign then there may well be people who did indeed vote for Brexit on the basis of misinformation, and could therefore be said to have been "fooled in to voting for Brexit".

Then you have to add in to this situation the role of the press, which in the UK is heavily dominated by the right. Most of these papers are rabidly pro-Brexit, so any attempt to question the referendum result on the basis of possible Russian meddling will immediately provoke howls of outrage at the "will of the people" being thwarted by "treacherous saboteurs" (and they'll still say that even if it turns out that the real saboteurs were actually the Russians). And all of this is before you get to the reasons outlined in the article which go a long way to explaining the unwillingness of many of our politicians to tackle Russian interference in a serious way.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on April 23, 2018, 04:43:00 PM
A possible breakthrough on the Irish border?

https://www.joe.ie/news/james-obrien-lbc-irish-people-microchipped-brexit-623241 (https://www.joe.ie/news/james-obrien-lbc-irish-people-microchipped-brexit-623241)

This is just the sort of bold and innovative thinking which is sure to make Brexit a roaring success. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 23, 2018, 09:47:33 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on April 23, 2018, 04:43:00 PM
A possible breakthrough on the Irish border?

https://www.joe.ie/news/james-obrien-lbc-irish-people-microchipped-brexit-623241 (https://www.joe.ie/news/james-obrien-lbc-irish-people-microchipped-brexit-623241)

This is just the sort of bold and innovative thinking which is sure to make Brexit a roaring success.

Hilarious.  :)

Word from Brussels is that the solutions the UK proposed involved either a lot of trust ("You don't need any checks, we'll take of it" How??) or expensive, advanced technology that might never work and a lot of red tape.

A no go, therefore. Either the UK is going to budge, or the Irish are going to sink any prospect of a transition deal.
And I think the Irish mean it, since they are seriously preparing for an immediate hard Brexit.... (As are the Dutch).

A way out of the situation comes from unexpected quarters. It seems that the majority of British MP's - and of the British public - is slowly shifting towards BINO (Brexit in name only).... 8)

First step is the decision to remain in the customs union. Which frankly helps a bit but is not as fundamental as is suggested. The UK economy is not about goods, but about services. And for that you need the real prize: remaining in the internal market.... Which in due time, before the transition period is over, is what is going to happen IMO. Probably after Brexit itself, since it will probably topple May's government.

Of course in that case the whole NI issue will dissapear. :)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: drogulus on April 26, 2018, 06:34:14 AM
      Here is my dilemma on Brexit. International agreements on most subjects are good in themselves, but on questions of monetary sovereignty I go the other way.

      Brexit Fear Mongering Proving Wrong (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4165417-brexit-fear-mongering-proving-wrong)

      I see it that the geostrategic argument against Brexit is good but that the economic argument requires that the economy be deliberately recessed, that an extra step is required to make the bad outcome predicted a fact, engineering an outcome bad enough to (heh!) make it so.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 26, 2018, 09:59:25 AM
Quote from: drogulus on April 26, 2018, 06:34:14 AM
      Here is my dilemma on Brexit. International agreements on most subjects are good in themselves, but on questions of monetary sovereignty I go the other way.

Spoken like a true American!  :D

Well... not everybody has the greenback as their national currency.....  ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 27, 2018, 12:20:35 AM
While Westminster is submerging in a debate on whether to reamain in a customs union with the EU, the Irish send a final warning:

UK must accept it is decision time on Brexit - Hogan (https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/0426/957386-phil-hogan/)

"The EU must be satisfied the UK's invention will work or it is the backstop. The deadline is set for June. No decision, no Withdrawal Treaty; no Withdrawal Treaty, no transition."

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: drogulus on April 27, 2018, 08:52:59 AM
Quote from: Que on April 26, 2018, 09:59:25 AM
Spoken like a true American!  :D

Well... not everybody has the greenback as their national currency.....  ::)

Q

     I don't think it has to do with the greenback at all. It has to do with what the loss of monetary sovereignty does to countries that have lost it. There's still the danger of purely self imposed austerity but that's something a country can still defeat or reverse if it hasn't got itself into the clutches of international Austerions.

     I'm a horrible example of a True American as these things are judged. Both US parties are too austere for me. The term of art is "neoliberal".
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 27, 2018, 10:17:05 PM
The destructive power of Brexit:

Brexit is breaking up Europe's €10 billion plan to launch a new constellation of satellites (https://qz.com/1264365/brexit-is-breaking-up-galileo-europes-e10-billion-plan-to-launch-new-satellites/)

The UK wants to stay in the project.

The question is as before: if you don't want to abide by commonly agreed rules - how?  ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 27, 2018, 10:23:14 PM
Quote from: drogulus on April 27, 2018, 08:52:59 AM
     I don't think it has to do with the greenback at all. It has to do with what the loss of monetary sovereignty does to countries that have lost it.

I see your point. But my point is that smaller countries or weak economies have effectively very limited monetary sovereignty anyway. Nevertheless, as it is at the moment, the euro was a mistake. But the only ones that sacrificed real monetary sovereignty were the Germans.

However, the whole issue is unrelated to Brexit, since the Brits were smart enough to keep their own currency...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 30, 2018, 09:45:34 PM
More trouble for May:

Theresa May suffered another major defeat on Brexit as House of Lords voted to give the British parliament a say over the terms of a future UK-EU deal.

Peers voted by 335 to 244 for an amendment to EU Withdrawal Bill which would give MPs a "meaningful vote" on the deal May brings back from Brussels.The amendment gives parliament the power to decide what the government should do if May's final deal is rejected in the Commons. (https://www.businessinsider.nl/lords-vote-to-give-parliament-more-say-on-brexit-in-another-defeat-for-theresa-may-2018-4/?international=true&r=US)

The Lords are trying to make Brexit manageable again.... What are the Commons going to do?  ::)

Will May's government last till Brexit? (Probably not....)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 03, 2018, 03:09:32 PM
Quote from: Que on April 30, 2018, 09:45:34 PM
More trouble for May:

Theresa May suffered another major defeat on Brexit as House of Lords voted to give the British parliament a say over the terms of a future UK-EU deal.

Peers voted by 335 to 244 for an amendment to EU Withdrawal Bill which would give MPs a "meaningful vote" on the deal May brings back from Brussels.The amendment gives parliament the power to decide what the government should do if May's final deal is rejected in the Commons. (https://www.businessinsider.nl/lords-vote-to-give-parliament-more-say-on-brexit-in-another-defeat-for-theresa-may-2018-4/?international=true&r=US)

The Lords are trying to make Brexit manageable again.... What are the Commons going to do?  ::)

Will May's government last till Brexit? (Probably not....)

Q

Guess what the "crunch" meeting on which customs option to go for produced? Yes, that's right. Another fudge. Not that it matters anyway: from the way it's been reported here, you'd think whichever one they decided on would be the one we'll get, but the EU has already made it clear that it regards both as unworkable anyway. So it's nearly two years since the referendum, less than a year until we leave - and the government still can't choose between two customs options which the other side has already rejected.

And yet, these cretins still have a narrow lead in the majority of polls. Brexit really does seem to override everything: we have a health service on its knees, an explosion in the number of people relying on food banks to avoid starvation, the normalisation of badly paid, insecure, dead-end jobs, especially those on zero hours contracts, the disaster of universal credit, and the Tories conducting the Brexit negotiations in a manner that makes the Keystone Cops look like a well-drilled unit.......and it seems none of this matters, as long as we leave the EU. It doesn't even seem to matter that the Brexiteers' promises are going up in smoke, or how bad a deal we appear to be heading for - as long as we leave. Barring a miracle, we seem to be well and truly screwed.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 04, 2018, 12:16:16 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on May 03, 2018, 03:09:32 PM
....and it seems none of this matters, as long as we leave the EU. It doesn't even seem to matter that the Brexiteers' promises are going up in smoke, or how bad a deal we appear to be heading for - as long as we leave. Barring a miracle, we seem to be well and truly screwed.

I hope not!  :) Once the UK makes it into a transition deal, you'll be OK on Brexit because it will silently morph into a Brexit In Name Only (BINO)...with a continued customs union and participation of the internal market. I'm convinced that no viable alternative will materialize during the transition period.

The big risk now, is that a transition deal falls through because the UK doesn't accept the "backstop" arrangement for NI that the EU and Ireland want. The halfbaked customs scheme May is cooking up won't work. To avoid a hard border Northern Ireland will have the be a special status territory that is part of the EU customs union and is regulatory aligned in key economic areas.

Anyway, if I'm right in my predictions the NI issue will dissapear in due time and resolved by BINO....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 04, 2018, 06:58:44 AM
Quote from: Que on May 04, 2018, 12:16:16 AM
I hope not!  :) Once the UK makes it into a transition deal, you'll be OK on Brexit because it will silently morph into a Brexit In Name Only (BINO)...with a continued customs union and participation of the internal market. I'm convinced that no viable alternative will materialize during the transition period.

The big risk now, is that a transition deal falls through because the UK doesn't accept the "backstop" arrangement for NI that the EU and Ireland want. The halfbaked customs scheme May is cooking up won't work. To avoid a hard border Northern Ireland will have the be a special status territory that is part of the EU customs union and is regulatory aligned in key economic areas.

Anyway, if I'm right in my predictions the NI issue will dissapear in due time and resolved by BINO....

Q

The scenario you describe is obviously possible, but it's not a foregone conclusion by any means. The results of yesterday's local elections show the remain/leave split in the country is still there, with the Tories' vote going way up in areas that voted most strongly to leave. That suggests that the staggering incompetence of the way they've handled the negotiations doesn't bother leave voters, who just want a hard Brexit come what may. For once, Rees Mogg may be right when he says that BINO would be electorally toxic for the Tories, since Remainers would still be unhappy as it would still be Brexit, while leave voters would view it as a betrayal. If the Tories think a hard Brexit is in their best interests then that's what they'll do, with the EU being blamed for its "intransigence". Never mind that such a course would be economic madness: in a contest between what's in the best interests of the Tory party and the best interests of the country the latter will come a distant second.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: knight66 on May 04, 2018, 07:47:08 AM
Mr Minnow could be writing my posts for me. I follow a lot of links via Twitter. As well as keeping up with it, it allows me a safety valve for my anger and contempt. That ire is not restricted to the Tory party. Labour is just as bad with its equivocating leader the secret BREXITeer. The secret only seems to operate for a large sector of Labour voters who seem to think the acquiesence on BREXIT is some kind of tactic that will wrongfoot the government at some vital juncture. The rest of us know perfectly well that Corbyn is anti-EU. The 48% voters against BREXIT have no viable party to vote for.

Our only hope is that with bad economic news daily, there will be a cross bench revolt and Labour together with rebels decide to vote down a deal if it looks uterly disasterous.

The turnout yesterday was only 33%. I am not so sure this is entirely due to a lack of interest. It may well be some Tory and Labour remain voters stayed at home rather than bring themselves to vote for some other party that would get nowhere. But I imagine that would only affect turnout rates a little. There is so much going wrong here, not just BREXIT, it should be a gift for any non brain-dead opposition.

I could go on, and on and on. But I will ask Mr Minnow to continue to speak for me, somewhat.

Mike
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 04, 2018, 11:41:14 AM
Quote from: knight66 on May 04, 2018, 07:47:08 AM
Mr Minnow could be writing my posts for me. I follow a lot of links via Twitter. As well as keeping up with it, it allows me a safety valve for my anger and contempt. That ire is not restricted to the Tory party. Labour is just as bad with its equivocating leader the secret BREXITeer. The secret only seems to operate for a large sector of Labour voters who seem to think the acquiesence on BREXIT is some kind of tactic that will wrongfoot the government at some vital juncture. The rest of us know perfectly well that Corbyn is anti-EU. The 48% voters against BREXIT have no viable party to vote for.

Our only hope is that with bad economic news daily, there will be a cross bench revolt and Labour together with rebels decide to vote down a deal if it looks uterly disasterous.

The turnout yesterday was only 33%. I am not so sure this is entirely due to a lack of interest. It may well be some Tory and Labour remain voters stayed at home rather than bring themselves to vote for some other party that would get nowhere. But I imagine that would only affect turnout rates a little. There is so much going wrong here, not just BREXIT, it should be a gift for any non brain-dead opposition.

I could go on, and on and on. But I will ask Mr Minnow to continue to speak for me, somewhat.

Mike

Hi Mike. At the risk of not continuing to speak for you to some extent, I do think Corbyn's stance on the EU has changed somewhat over the last 30 years, as I said somewhere on this thread a while back. He's clearly not its biggest fan, but I think he's well aware of the fact that EU membership is vastly preferable to a hard Brexit cast in the image of the hard right of the Tory party.

I agree that his current stance is not part of some great master strategy, but I do think he's waiting for leave voters to get to the point where they're ready to give a fair hearing to a soft Brexit, i.e. staying in both the CU/SM (and hopefully voting down whatever sack of shite the Maybot eventually comes back with). But as yesterday's local elections seem to show, most leave voters are just not willing to listen yet - not just to Corbyn, but anyone who doesn't say Brexit will lead to the magical sunlit uplands. The conduct of the negotiations has been utterly shambolic, the Brexiteers' promises are a distant memory, there's still no sign of a workable solution to the Irish border - and they still seem to want the Tories to drive us off the cliff. Mention the things I mentioned earlier - the state of the NHS, food banks, zero hours contracts etc., not to mention the ongoing abuse of the sick and disabled - and the usual response is a shrug of the shoulders and something which amounts to "yeah, but Brexit, innit".

I've had conversations with leave voters on these issues and it makes absolutely no difference if you point out the gaping holes in the arguments for Brexit. Here's how the last one went:

"We won't be paying money into the EU budget".

Well we might actually, but even if we're not, that "saving" will be dwarfed by the hit to trade with our biggest trading partner.

"We can tear up EU rules and sign new trade deals with other countries".

Except we'll have to follow EU rules if we want to trade with them post-Brexit, and any new trade deals will themselves mean signing up to a load more regulations, because that's what trade deals consist of.

"We can control EU immigration".

Well we can do that now - any EU citizen can be sent home after 3 months if they don't have a job or other means of support - but our government chooses not to. And since the likes of India and China will want less stringent immigration rules for their citizens as part of any future trade deals, overall immigration is unlikely to fall much, if at all. It might well even rise.

The bloke I was talking to had no counterarguments to any of this, so I asked him if he'd vote for Brexit again: "oh yeah, definitely". That's the mentality Corbyn is up against.

Corbyn has been dealt a really bloody awful hand - he's got to somehow hang on to younger and metropolitan Labour voters who voted remain, and voters in traditional Labour heartlands who voted leave in large numbers. As Brexit unravels it may be that these leave voters will have second thoughts, but the risk of making a move now to advocating SM membership is that he alienates a large chunk of Labour voters who then switch to the Tories - and as insane as that would be, some have already done it. Should that happen, the same "moderates" now pushing him to support SM membership would then slag him off for not appealing to traditional Labour voters. Damned if he does, damned if he doesn't.

Don't get me wrong, I'm also frustrated that he hasn't gone further than supporting CU membership, but I can see why he hasn't. The whole thing is an utter shitshow and Corbyn has no good options. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe if he announced now that Labour would support staying in the SM perhaps their poll numbers would rise and the Tories would be on the ropes. Unfortunately I just can't see it at the moment. I hope the Tory Remainer rebels put down an amendment in the Commons committing us to the SM, because that really would be crunch time with sitting on the fence no longer an option. If that happened and Corbyn whipped his MPs to vote against it then that really would make me think twice. I hope he would support it though, because aside from Brexit his policy agenda is generally a pretty good one.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: knight66 on May 04, 2018, 12:50:10 PM
Many things over a number of years contributed to the BREXIT vote. One was the complete lack of campaigning and luke warm attitude of Corbyn. He whispered support and did not back it with action. Had he extended himself, we might not be here in this situation. For me that spoke strongly of his lack of integrity. He is acquiescing in the lie that the referendum was binding. He has, mostly, said he would refuse a second vote, despite there being a big majority of Labour voters who now would vote against BREXIT. His democratic credentials therefore seem deeply suspect to me. If he firmly changed his mind on BREXIT, I would again support Labour, even though in Scotland they seem increasingly like a bowling club for retirees and increasingly irrelevant.

To add to the woes of the country, which you listed, the Justice system is degraded to the point it is not really functioning. Only today there was a report that rapists have less than a 2% probability of being caught and sentenced. We also have had quiet amendments to the compensation rules.

You can be arrested and held in custody. If innocent you are now unlikely to get anything like full reimbursement of your costs. Nor can you any longer rely on getting compensation, unless....wait for it.....it would have been IMPOSSIBLE for you to have committed the crime of which you were found not guilty! That is the Tory Government at its very best.

Mike

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 04, 2018, 03:07:32 PM
Quote from: knight66 on May 04, 2018, 12:50:10 PM
Many things over a number of years contributed to the BREXIT vote. One was the complete lack of campaigning and luke warm attitude of Corbyn. He whispered support and did not back it with action. Had he extended himself, we might not be here in this situation. For me that spoke strongly of his lack of integrity. He is acquiescing in the lie that the referendum was binding. He has, mostly, said he would refuse a second vote, despite there being a big majority of Labour voters who now would vote against BREXIT. His democratic credentials therefore seem deeply suspect to me.

I was also under the impression that Corbyn hadn't done a great deal during the Brexit referendum campaign until I saw an article listing the speeches he'd given and pro-Remain events he'd been at (can't find it now, this was a year or more back). Assuming the article was accurate, he actually did extend himself - but barely any of those events and speeches got much (or indeed any) coverage. You'd expect the Tory press to refuse him coverage, but even the broadcasters didn't bother for the most part. That said, maybe it's not so surprising when you look at how our national broadcaster has covered Labour under Corbyn. BBC News often resembles a branch of Tory central office these days.

It is indeed true that the referendum was technically advisory rather than legally binding. However, I don't think this is a viable way of opposing Brexit. If Corbyn said that the result should be ignored because it was only advisory he'd be committing political suicide. Support for Brexit among Labour voters would almost certainly soar and Labour's support would crash. Not even the "moderates" want to go down that road.

Supporting a second referendum would be a risk, though I agree it's one he might be on firm enough ground to take, since there is now evidence from polling that a fairly clear majority of the public supports a referendum on the terms of the final deal. Presumably that must include some leave voters, which should mitigate worries that such a shift in policy would provoke the usual "BREXIT SABOTAGE!!!!" screeching in the Tory press.   

QuoteIf he firmly changed his mind on BREXIT, I would again support Labour, even though in Scotland they seem increasingly like a bowling club for retirees and increasingly irrelevant.

Oh yes, I forgot about Scottish Labour - first Jim Murphy, then Kezia Dugdale, who told Labour voters they should vote Tory to keep the SNP out in places Labour couldn't win before buggering off to a vacuous "reality" TV show. Christ almighty, what a loss to the party she is.

QuoteTo add to the woes of the country, which you listed, the Justice system is degraded to the point it is not really functioning. Only today there was a report that rapists have less than a 2% probability of being caught and sentenced. We also have had quiet amendments to the compensation rules.

You can be arrested and held in custody. If innocent you are now unlikely to get anything like full reimbursement of your costs. Nor can you any longer rely on getting compensation, unless....wait for it.....it would have been IMPOSSIBLE for you to have committed the crime of which you were found not guilty! That is the Tory Government at its very best.

Mike

That seems to be yet another one of those things that's got lost as Brexit overrides everything. The absolute shit a government can get away with by stirring up nationalist sentiment is something to behold.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: knight66 on May 04, 2018, 10:23:13 PM
Yes, I agree with a lot of that, though Corbyn had opportunities to share cross-party platforms on the referendum, but did not take them up.

One of my largest  resentments around BREXIT is how the BBC has been behaving. I grew up loving the BBC and defendwed it when it was attacked. If it was not making politicians unhappy, it was not doing its job. I was happy when both sides constantly complained. It took me quite a while to believe the current bias, which so obviously shows in what it does not report as much as how it goes about reporting, disappointment, disillusion, gutted. When I was in my 20s, in the 1970s I bought the Guardian. Eventually I got fed up with all the moaning in the letters, every day. I thought that if they reflected the readership, then all the constant complaining did not reflect me, so I dropped it for many years. However, I read it on line daily now. 

I used to be a complete news junkie, Today, The Westminster Hour, The Week in Westminster, Daily Politics, Question Time, Times and Sunday Times etc. I have dropped them all, and moved on-line. I follow US politics to distract from the gut-wrenching UK situation. We could do with a Washington Post equivalent over here.

The Guardian now is probably too comfortable, in being part of my own bubble, I read it a lot, so I go to Chanel 4 which although left leaning, does look at issues more in the round. The newspapers up here are not worth reading even for free. I am so disappointed in how soft the BBC Today programme has gone on the Government. They ought to have been savaging the idiotic ideas the Tory ministers come out with. Also, they could have run fact checks during the campaign and provided info on what we actually get from the EC. They just give Tories a pass and attack Labour behaviours, bypassing their policies. And UKIP has been given air time across the BBC well beyond their level of support......I think I had better go for a lie down.

By the way, I feel like I know quite a lot and quite a range of folk, but I only know two who voted BREXIT. And I have not seen them since the day of the result. My acquaintances must be narrower than I thought. I encounter plenty of folk who shock me on-line. The country is stuffed with bigotry, stuffed.

Mike

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: NikF on May 04, 2018, 10:51:20 PM
Quote from: knight66 on May 04, 2018, 10:23:13 PM


One of my largest  resentments around BREXIT is how the BBC has been behaving. I grew up loving the BBC and defendwed it when it was attacked. If it was not making politicians unhappy, it was not doing its job. I was happy when both sides constantly complained. It took me quite a while to believe the current bias, which so obviously shows in what it does not report as much as how it goes about reporting, disappointment, disillusion, gutted.

I usually stay out of these threads, but in this instance I'm completely in agreement regarding the terrible change in the BBC. It's sunk to the level of a Murdoch tabloid. And it's almost shamelessly transparent about it.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 05, 2018, 03:11:49 PM
Quote from: knight66 on May 04, 2018, 10:23:13 PM
Yes, I agree with a lot of that, though Corbyn had opportunities to share cross-party platforms on the referendum, but did not take them up.

One of my largest  resentments around BREXIT is how the BBC has been behaving. I grew up loving the BBC and defendwed it when it was attacked. If it was not making politicians unhappy, it was not doing its job. I was happy when both sides constantly complained. It took me quite a while to believe the current bias, which so obviously shows in what it does not report as much as how it goes about reporting, disappointment, disillusion, gutted. When I was in my 20s, in the 1970s I bought the Guardian. Eventually I got fed up with all the moaning in the letters, every day. I thought that if they reflected the readership, then all the constant complaining did not reflect me, so I dropped it for many years. However, I read it on line daily now. 

I used to be a complete news junkie, Today, The Westminster Hour, The Week in Westminster, Daily Politics, Question Time, Times and Sunday Times etc. I have dropped them all, and moved on-line. I follow US politics to distract from the gut-wrenching UK situation. We could do with a Washington Post equivalent over here.

The Guardian now is probably too comfortable, in being part of my own bubble, I read it a lot, so I go to Chanel 4 which although left leaning, does look at issues more in the round. The newspapers up here are not worth reading even for free. I am so disappointed in how soft the BBC Today programme has gone on the Government. They ought to have been savaging the idiotic ideas the Tory ministers come out with. Also, they could have run fact checks during the campaign and provided info on what we actually get from the EC. They just give Tories a pass and attack Labour behaviours, bypassing their policies. And UKIP has been given air time across the BBC well beyond their level of support......I think I had better go for a lie down.

I couldn't agree more. I used to see someone on the left accusing the BBC of a right wing bias, then I'd see someone on the right accusing it of left wing bias and conclude it must be pretty impartial. Their coverage of Labour under Corbyn has made it impossible to hold that view any longer.  By the way, I don't think Channel 4 News is even left-leaning, it's just even-handed - but that alone is enough to make it look left-leaning when compared to the BBC, Sky and to some extent ITV News. Such is the nature of our "impartial" broadcasters.

QuoteI encounter plenty of folk who shock me on-line. The country is stuffed with bigotry, stuffed.

Mike

Unfortunately the internet allows bigots to vent their poison with anonymity and therefore no consequences. I suppose it does shine a light on what their real views are, however depressing they may be. I'm convinced that the Windrush scandal did the Tories no harm at all in the local elections and may even have helped them. Some people won't really give a shit about something that "only" affects immigrants - even if they are perfectly legal - and the bigots will be positively pleased about it.

The Brexit vote has made things far worse as those who hold really toxic views believe that the vote to leave has validated those views. When you see people asked about why they voted for Brexit and they're happy to say shit like "to get the Muslims out" to camera, something really has gone badly wrong. Even just a few years ago you'd have really struggled to find people who would be willing to display such bigotry so openly without any sense of shame. 

Interesting article here:  https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/04/labour-fudge-brexit-local-elections-leave-remain-corbyn (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/04/labour-fudge-brexit-local-elections-leave-remain-corbyn)

I'm not Freedland's biggest fan as he's pretty typical New Labour, but I think he's right about this:

QuoteEven ahead of the crunch decisions in October, the Lords will vote on Tuesday on an amendment that would keep Britain in the single market. If that passes and comes before the Commons, would the Labour front bench move against it? If they did, what would their anti-Brexit supporters make of that: Labour acting to keep Britain out of the single market, with its protections of environmental and workers' rights? The one option that won't be available to the party leadership is more fudge.

If there's a vote on the single market in the Lords on Tuesday then Corbyn will have to get off the fence whether he wants to or not. The Lords is even more heavily pro-Remain than the Commons, so this amendment should be passed. It would then presumably have to be voted on in the Commons. Supporting SM membership might lose Corbyn some Labour leave voters,  but opposing it would lose him a lot of the younger voters who flocked to Labour when he won the leadership. They're his biggest power base in the party - and they also tend to be the most passionately anti-Brexit. As much as I don't like seeing Brexit overriding so many domestic issues which aren't getting anywhere near the attention they should, if we're not even in the SM the economic fallout would almost certainly scupper Corbyn's domestic agenda. I'd hate to see that happen.


Another Observer/Guardian article says this:

QuoteThe Observer understands that more than 40 Labour peers are ready to back a cross-party amendment to Brexit legislation that would instruct the government to begin negotiating future UK membership of the European Economic Area (EEA).

This would mean that the UK would leave the EU and not be part of the common agricultural policy, common fisheries policy or be subject to the European Court of Justice. It would also be able to strike its own deal on freedom of movement, while being inside the EU internal market.

Not sure if this is the same amendment referred to by Freedland, but this sounds like a very decent option for Labour to go for. Inside the SM, which along with Corbyn's support for a customs union would solve the Irish border problem, able to strike a deal on freedom of movement, which should be an effective answer to the "SM = unlimited EU immigration" crap, and close enough to the EU to at least mitigate the worst of the economic damage caused by Brexit. I really hope he doesn't oppose SM membership when it comes to the crunch. I'd feel really torn over who to support if he did, especially since in England we don't have an English equivalent of the SNP to vote for.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 06, 2018, 01:26:37 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on May 05, 2018, 03:11:49 PM
If there's a vote on the single market in the Lords on Tuesday then Corbyn will have to get off the fence whether he wants to or not. The Lords is even more heavily pro-Remain than the Commons, so this amendment should be passed. It would then presumably have to be voted on in the Commons. Supporting SM membership might lose Corbyn some Labour leave voters,  but opposing it would lose him a lot of the younger voters who flocked to Labour when he won the leadership. They're his biggest power base in the party - and they also tend to be the most passionately anti-Brexit. As much as I don't like seeing Brexit overriding so many domestic issues which aren't getting anywhere near the attention they should, if we're not even in the SM the economic fallout would almost certainly scupper Corbyn's domestic agenda. I'd hate to see that happen.


Another Observer/Guardian article says this:

Not sure if this is the same amendment referred to by Freedland, but this sounds like a very decent option for Labour to go for. Inside the SM, which along with Corbyn's support for a customs union would solve the Irish border problem, able to strike a deal on freedom of movement, which should be an effective answer to the "SM = unlimited EU immigration" crap, and close enough to the EU to at least mitigate the worst of the economic damage caused by Brexit. I really hope he doesn't oppose SM membership when it comes to the crunch. I'd feel really torn over who to support if he did, especially since in England we don't have an English equivalent of the SNP to vote for.

I think Corbyn will let you down and turn against membership of the Single Market, since he thinks the EU rules on fair competition and state aide will block his agenda of economic reforms. Of course he is wrong, as various experts and prominent Labour members have argued many times over.

But I guess if something is too complex to understand, you stick with your gut instinct... Brexit in a nutshell, I would say....  ::)

The big question is whether Corbyn will get his party behind him. Probably Labour will be, like the Tories, divided to the bone...and so, on it goes... off the cliff....

Labour peers accuse Corbyn of Brexit cowardice
Party is blocking efforts in Lords to call for membership of the European Economic Area
(https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/05/labour-peers-accuse-corbyn-brexit-cowardice)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: knight66 on May 06, 2018, 03:54:41 AM
Yes, there is a kind of underhand equivocation going on in Labour. Seeming to keep options open, but closing off those options as fast as they claim them to be feasible. It depends who is speaking and indicates their real divisions in the party. Dear Little Owen's daily student-politics lectures to the less than blindly faithful have become counter productive. He is one of those....into the head, out of the mouth filterless pundits. He tweeted that those in the middle ground ideologically were nazis. He quickly deleted it, but it not only shows his playground attitudes, but made me wonder how he characterises the extreme right. One of his recent blunders was suggesting on-line that Corbyn sue Lord Sugar, a Jew, right at the worst week on the anti-semitic controversy. That would have played well, and right into the hands of Corbyn's opponents. People, esp those supporting Labour need to stop listening to him, he has no basic political nous.

Fingers crossed for Tuesday.

Glasgow hosted a really large independence rally yesterday. The sectarian bitterness between Protastant and Catholic has transferred itself to the Yes and No proponents. There are a lot of vile folk about who love to latch onto anything that gives them an opportunity to bully. I have always been firmly a no independence Scot, but am getting to the point that I prefer to be badly ruled from Edinburgh than disasterously ruled form Westminster.

Mike
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 06, 2018, 04:23:28 AM
Quote from: Que on May 06, 2018, 01:26:37 AM
I think Corbyn will let you down and turn against membership of the Single Market, since he thinks the EU rules on fair competition and state aide will block his agenda of economic reforms. Of course he is wrong, as various experts and prominent Labour members have argued many times over.

But I guess if something is to complex to understand, you stick with your gut instinct... Brexit in a nutshell, I would say....  ::)

That's the worry. He obviously has his faults, but I like Corbyn. His heart is in the right place, which might not sound like much, but it's pretty fundamental: if a politician has policies which are going to hurt me personally and screw the country generally then I don't care how competent or incompetent they are, as it's not going to be good either way. The current government is ample proof of that.

Corbyn is also the first leader of a major UK-wide party to challenge the dominance of Thatcherism/neoliberalism/call it what you like over the last 40 years. In terms of his domestic agenda he's got Labour pretty much where they should be. But if we're not in the SM and the economic fallout means there's no way he can implement that agenda then we really are in trouble. The deluge of abuse from the Tories would be predictable enough, but the right of the Labour party would leap at the chance to say that only a Tory-lite Labour party is viable, which takes us back to having a "choice" between a very right wing party and a marginally less right wing party.


QuoteThe big question is whether Corbyn will get his party behind him. Probably Labour will be, like the Tories, divided to the bone...and so, on it goes... off the cliff....

Labour peers accuse Corbyn of Brexit cowardice
Party is blocking efforts in Lords to call for membership of the European Economic Area
(https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/05/labour-peers-accuse-corbyn-brexit-cowardice)

Q

I can't see how he gets his party behind him if he actively opposes SM or EEA membership. If he does that it won't just be the usual suspects on the backbenches causing trouble, for the first time it will be the membership - which up until now has resolutely supported him - who will be severely disappointed. A lot of people, me included, have stuck with Corbyn even when he looked certain to be slaughtered at last year's election because he was the only one offering something different and better instead of the same old shit. If he opposes SM membership and alienates those who have stuck by him up until now then he's got big problems. To say nothing of the country not having a viable opposition to the hard Brexit we'll get from the Tories.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 06, 2018, 04:28:51 AM
Quote from: knight66 on May 06, 2018, 03:54:41 AM
Yes, there is a kind of underhand equivocation going on in Labour. Seeming to keep options open, but closing off those options as fast as they claim them to be feasible. It depends who is speaking and indicates their real divisions in the party. Dear Little Owen's daily student-politics lectures to the less than blindly faithful have become counter productive. He is one of those....into the head, out of the mouth filterless pundits. He tweeted that those in the middle ground ideologically were nazis. He quickly deleted it, but it not only shows his playground attitudes, but made me wonder how he characterises the extreme right. One of his recent blunders was suggesting on-line that Corbyn sue Lord Sugar, a Jew, right at the worst week on the anti-semitic controversy. That would have played well, and right into the hands of Corbyn's opponents. People, esp those supporting Labour need to stop listening to him, he has no basic political nous.

Fingers crossed for Tuesday.

Glasgow hosted a really large independence rally yesterday. The sectarian bitterness between Protastant and Catholic has transferred itself to the Yes and No proponents. There are a lot of vile folk about who love to latch onto anything that gives them an opportunity to bully. I have always been firmly a no independence Scot, but am getting to the point that I prefer to be badly ruled from Edinburgh than disasterously ruled form Westminster.

Mike

You'll know more about this than me, but I'd have thought that the harder the Brexit, the more support for Scottish independence will grow. I can't see many Scots wanting to live in a country ruled by the ideology of Rees Mogg and co..
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 06, 2018, 08:00:42 AM
The plot thickens... That's a big IF.....  8)

Brexit: Rebel Tories say they have enough MPs to push Theresa May into staying in single market – IF Labour backs it. (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-rebel-tories-single-market-vote-theresa-may-labour-backing-a8336971.html)

So, a coalition of Labour and Tory rebels could avoid a cliff edge Brexit....

But what about Corbyn and Eurosceptic Labour voters...?  ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: knight66 on May 06, 2018, 08:36:14 AM
The big conundrum.

Mike
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 06, 2018, 10:15:38 AM
Quote from: Que on May 06, 2018, 08:00:42 AM
The plot thickens... That's a big IF.....  8)

Brexit: Rebel Tories say they have enough MPs to push Theresa May into staying in single market – IF Labour backs it. (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-rebel-tories-single-market-vote-theresa-may-labour-backing-a8336971.html)

So, a coalition of Labour and Tory rebels could avoid a cliff edge Brexit....

But what about Corbyn and Eurosceptic Labour voters...?  ::)

If this is true, it really is crunch time. If Corbyn has the chance to scupper the Tories' hard Brexit and doesn't take it, the consequences are likely to make any possible drawbacks of supporting SM membership (i.e. losing some pro-Brexit Labour voters) look utterly insignificant by comparison. Even the younger voters who have backed him so strongly may well find it too much to take. 

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 06, 2018, 02:54:29 PM
Just found a gem in this article: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/06/hard-brexit-create-more-anger-remaining (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/06/hard-brexit-create-more-anger-remaining)

QuoteI have already reported the finding by Bettergovgroup that "there is now widespread public recognition that the referendum was flawed and that people were not given the relevant facts". This is hardly surprising when one realises that our former ambassador to the EU, Sir Ivan Rogers, had to explain to the leading Brexiters in the cabinet after the referendum what the customs union and single market actually were.

Bloody hell.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: knight66 on May 06, 2018, 11:12:43 PM
Well, even 18 months later it was clear a lot of politicians were still clueless by their proclamations of how we could or could not do such and such in or out of a customs union. They were also making daft comments on what the likes of Switzerland and Norway could and could not do. That included Corbyn very recently. If they can't get their heads round this, they can't lead.

Mike
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 09, 2018, 11:59:11 PM
How predictable...  ::)

Brexit: Jeremy Corbyn declines to support plan to keep UK in single market (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-jeremy-corbyn-eu-single-market-commons-vote-labour-customs-union-a8343176.html)

"His spokesman said keeping the UK in the single market as it stands, could undermine Mr Corbyn's plans to intervene in British industry and reverse privatisation if he wins power."

Off course, Corbyn's grandiose plans with British industry....Good luck with that when the economy takes a nose dive...
And there is no reason why EU rules would prevent the reversal of privatisations per se, as long as fair competition is maintained... Does Corbyn think that British protectionism will go down well with future trading partners?  ::)

He basically makes the same mistake as the Tories: an isolated nationalistic agenda without giving consideration of the consequences for international aspects of the British economy. The fantasy of "splendid isolation"..
Corbyn wants access to the Single Market without accepting the rules on fair competition, sure...... :D

So, either Corbyn needs to change his mind or Labour needs to change its leadership, or else the Commons' vote on the Single Market that was designed by the Lords is dead on arrival.....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 10, 2018, 12:04:17 AM
And some see a 2nd referendum as the better way out instead of relying on Corbyn:

Pro-Europeans, don't fight to stay in the single market. It's the wrong battle.
Forget the amendment the Lords has voted for. A people's vote on the Brexit deal is the true prize – all else is distraction
(https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/09/pro-europeans-single-market-lords-vote-brexit)

A 2nd referendum seems to me hard to achieve, and probably hard to win...
The electorate will likely be even more confused by the current situation than it was the last time around.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 11, 2018, 11:39:59 PM
Neil Kinnock on Labour and the Single Market:

"The objections to supporting EEA membership from some in the upper reaches of the Labour Party seem to centre on claims that it would either restrict a Labour government's freedom of socialist action, or that it would mean ignoring our supporters who voted to leave the EU, or both.

The first of these claims is based on falsehood. The EEA is open to member states of the EU or the European Free Trade Association. Neither the EEA nor the EU are part of the socialist superstate of neocon delusion or of the global capitalist adventure playground of infantile leftist illusion.

The EEA is a mixed-economy agreement of 31 democracies "to promote continuous and balanced strengthening of trade and economic relations between the contracting parties with equal conditions of competition and the respect of the same rules".

None of that prevents public ownership, social initiative, improving tax justice, promoting employment or advancing the welfare state – as so many instances in current member states show."


https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/neil-kinnock-corbyn-single-market-brexit-eu-labour-row-a8347606.html

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 12, 2018, 02:43:39 PM
Quote from: Que on May 09, 2018, 11:59:11 PM
And there is no reason why EU rules would prevent the reversal of privatisations per se, as long as fair competition is maintained... D
Q

I can't say the fair competition rules are something I've read a great deal about, but as I understand it there's nothing in them that says particular public services have to be privatised, or that a privatised public service can't be renationalised: it's just that if a service is privatised, then fair competition must apply. If that's right, I'm struggling to see why Corbyn thinks there's a problem.

Both main parties seem to be heading for a crunch point soon. For Labour that's the Commons vote on the EEA amendment passed in the Lords. If Corbyn doesn't back it there will be real trouble, this time quite possibly from the membership rather than just the malcontents on the backbenches. For the Tories, it's which customs option they decide to back. Both have been rejected by the EU already so in that sense it's academic, but whichever one gets the nod is going to alienate a big chunk of her own party. Up until now I've been sceptical of the idea that Brexit could end up splitting the two big parties, but such is the scale of the divisions in each party I'm beginning to wonder if it just might happen.

It's incredible to see the Brexiteers still spouting the same bollocks as two years ago, but special congratulations must go to Ruth Lea, who in barely two minutes managed a full house in Brexit Bullshit Bingo on the subject of the single market and Irish border:

"I can't see why a technological solution can't work."

"Who cares if there's a bit of smuggling across the Irish border?"

"The EU's stance is just a negotiating ploy."

"What about the way trade is conducted between the EU and Norway?" (Norway is in the single market and even then has border checks with Sweden)

"....or the trade between the EU and Switzerland?" (Switzerland is also in the single market, which the Brexiteers insist we have to leave)

"What about the example of the US/Canada border?"  (border checks again)

"Of course a technological solution can work, stop being such a pessimist."

It's hard to tell if they genuinely believe this crap, or know it's bullshit but are grimly sticking to it so they can blame the EU when it all goes tits up. 
   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 12, 2018, 02:58:13 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on May 12, 2018, 02:43:39 PM

Up until now I've been sceptical of the idea that Brexit could end up splitting the two big parties, but such is the scale of the divisions in each party I'm beginning to wonder if it just might happen.

I'm starting to wonder if a 2nd referendum would be a way out for both divided parties?

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 12, 2018, 03:35:54 PM
Quote from: Que on May 12, 2018, 02:58:13 PM
I'm starting to wonder if a 2nd referendum would be a way out for both divided parties?

Q

It might be something they would go for if they could see no other way out, but whether it would actually solve anything I'm not so sure. The 2016 referendum showed just how lousy a device it is when you have a public which has been deliberately and systematically lied to over many years. Then you have to look at current polling, which shows a small shift to Remain, but basically a country still split down the middle. If Leave were to win again that would be it, we'd be out for the foreseeable future and the Brexit ultras would be claiming a mandate for the hardest possible Brexit. Even if Remain were to win, unless there's a significant shift in the polls the margin of victory would probably be a narrow one - certainly not a win decisive enough to settle the issue, as happened in the 1975 referendum. That would just put us back to square one, except we'd also have Farage back and banging on about "unfinished business" (which is how he said he'd describe a narrow Remain win during the 2016 campaign when he thought Leave would lose - as luck would have it, a 52-48 victory was his example of a narrow Remain win which would constitute unfinished business).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 13, 2018, 12:49:33 AM
You are right, a new referendum with any other result than remaining in the EU would replicate the mess resulting from the previous one....  ::)

I'll be curious to see if Labour can pull off a leadership change....
Unless something happens on the side of Labour, May's govt is going to sleep walk into Brexit.
With or without a transition deal, depending on whether the UK agrees on a special status for NI.

I expect any split of parties or any other form of realignment of British politics after Brexit.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 13, 2018, 06:01:42 AM
Quote from: Que on May 13, 2018, 12:49:33 AM
You are right, a new referendum with any other result than remaining in the EU would replicate the mess resulting from the previous one....  ::)

More specifically, anything other than a decisive Remain win would replicate the current mess. I'd say it would need to be at least 60-40, and preferably more than that. No sign of it yet though.

QuoteI'll be curious to see if Labour can pull off a leadership change....
Unless something happens on the side of Labour, May's govt is going to sleep walk into Brexit.

It really depends on the views of the membership, which until now has been very pro-Corbyn. If Corbyn changes his policy to supporting the EEA amendment that's fine. If not, the membership might well start wondering if a change of leader is needed. It's not certain though, and even if it happened it's hard to see who would succeed him. Ideally it would be someone on the same page as Corbyn in terms of domestic policy, but also willing to offer a more pro-European policy. There's no way the self-styled "moderates" would get someone to their liking: the membership is rightly furious with them for the way they've sought to undermine Corbyn from day one, and in any case I don't see a Tory-lite candidate getting much traction in the country in the current political climate.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 14, 2018, 05:29:14 PM
Saw a bit of tonight's Newsnight, talking about the Irish border. Their political editor said that one cabinet minister was annoyed with Michel Barnier for visiting the border and had said "does Barnier really want to be responsible for restarting the Troubles?". So it would seem that the UK government's inability to even agree its negotiating position, let alone come up with a workable solution for the Irish border - which has only become a problem because of Brexit in the first place - is Barnier's fault. It's so obvious when you think about it, isn't it?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 14, 2018, 10:15:42 PM
Yes, the Brexiteers better brush up their blame game.... because the signs still are that the Irish are going to play hard ball.....  ::)

Since any transition deal needs consent of the European Parliament and ratification by all member states, the deadline is quickly approaching.If there is no deal this summer, it's going to be an immediate hard Brexit.


The EU's negotiator, Michel Barnier, said in Brussels that "a little progress" had been made in talks since March, but "some in the UK have yet to assume all the consequences of their decisions" – including, as he noted, "leaving 750 international agreements".
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 15, 2018, 04:17:05 AM
Quote from: Que on May 14, 2018, 10:15:42 PM
Yes, the Brexiteers better brush up their blame game.... because the signs still are that the Irish are going to play hard ball.....  ::)

As is the EU, which has stated clearly that Ireland has its full support on the border issue. But it's not a problem according to Rees Mogg:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/15/pessimism-about-customs-impasse-after-rees-mogg-remarks (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/15/pessimism-about-customs-impasse-after-rees-mogg-remarks)

QuoteWriting in the Daily Telegraph, Rees-Mogg said May "ought not to take Brussels too seriously about the Irish question" when seeking a customs deal.

"The commission hides behind faux concern for the Irish border undermining the single market ...

Yes Jacob, why would the EU really be bothered about protecting the integrity of one of the fundamental pillars of the EU? It's obviously just a ploy. No need to take it seriously at all. What could possibly go wrong? Dear god.

This from the man who said a few days ago that he didn't need to visit the border to understand the problem because he talked to the DUP.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on May 15, 2018, 07:03:10 AM
Dardanelles is forgotten, Gallipoli is forgiven. Brexiteers to eat more doners, less fish&chips as May and Erdogan waltz together, touting expansion of trade talks.


https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/president-erdogan-theresa-may-post-brexit-trade-turkey-a8351531.html?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_todayworld (https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/president-erdogan-theresa-may-post-brexit-trade-turkey-a8351531.html?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_todayworld)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 22, 2018, 08:36:02 AM
Facepalms at the ready folks.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/22/eu-trade-talks-australia-new-zealand-brexit-commonwealth (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/22/eu-trade-talks-australia-new-zealand-brexit-commonwealth)

But remember, we have to leave the EU to increase our trade with other countries. Global Britain, etc..
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 24, 2018, 10:17:58 PM
Brexit has been a mess in slow motion right from the start, but the iceberg is quickly coming into sight - with the engines running at full speed and a broken rudder.... With panic and anger as a result:

EU officials tear into UK's 'fantasy' Brexit negotiating strategy as talks turn bitter (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-uk-eu-customs-plan-northern-ireland-theresa-may-a8368101.html)

Some interesting point the EU made:

On the European space project Galileo, which was virulently opposed by the UK at its conception, but which it now wants not only to continue to use but also remain party to running it:

The EU says British demands to retain the same access to Galileo as a member state are unreasonable. Though officials say Britain could potentially still use the system, they do not want to give British defence firms the right to build or run parts of it because they say that would effectively give the UK, a third country, the power to turn off the EU system for member states.
Officials also pointed out that the UK itself had signed off the security rules restricting non-EU countries from running parts of system, as one of the 28 European Council members, before it knew it was going to leave.


On the European arrest warrant:

EU negotiators complain that the British side "do not understand" that Britain will not be able to use the European arrest warrant after Brexit, with Theresa May again having pledged to stay in the system just three months ago.
"There are member states that simply cannot extradite their own nationals to a non-member of the EU. This is a constraint that unfortunately will apply once the UK is outside," the senior official said.
"The European arrest warrant is simply not available. I don't think you can expect member states to change their constitutions in order to continue extraditing their nationals to the UK. [...]
Brussels says the best the UK can hope for is to conclude a separate extradition treaty with the EU, as well as bilateral agreements on procedures like intelligence sharing.


Yes, Germany (for instance).... why not change the non-extradition clause on nationals in your constitution, to make an exception for the UK?  8)

And note that  these are all problems that don't go away even if the UK opts for a soft Brexit....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 25, 2018, 07:28:20 AM
Quote from: Que on May 24, 2018, 10:17:58 PM
Brexit has been a mess in slow motion right from the start, but the iceberg is quickly coming into sight - with the engines running at full speed and a broken rudder.... With panic and anger as a result:

EU officials tear into UK's 'fantasy' Brexit negotiating strategy as talks turn bitter (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-uk-eu-customs-plan-northern-ireland-theresa-may-a8368101.html)

Some interesting point the EU made:

On the European space project Galileo, which was virulently opposed by the UK at its conception, but which it now wants not only to continue to use but also remain party to running it:

The EU says British demands to retain the same access to Galileo as a member state are unreasonable. Though officials say Britain could potentially still use the system, they do not want to give British defence firms the right to build or run parts of it because they say that would effectively give the UK, a third country, the power to turn off the EU system for member states.
Officials also pointed out that the UK itself had signed off the security rules restricting non-EU countries from running parts of system, as one of the 28 European Council members, before it knew it was going to leave.


On the European arrest warrant:

EU negotiators complain that the British side "do not understand" that Britain will not be able to use the European arrest warrant after Brexit, with Theresa May again having pledged to stay in the system just three months ago.
"There are member states that simply cannot extradite their own nationals to a non-member of the EU. This is a constraint that unfortunately will apply once the UK is outside," the senior official said.
"The European arrest warrant is simply not available. I don't think you can expect member states to change their constitutions in order to continue extraditing their nationals to the UK. [...]
Brussels says the best the UK can hope for is to conclude a separate extradition treaty with the EU, as well as bilateral agreements on procedures like intelligence sharing.


Yes, Germany (for instance).... why not change the non-extradition clause on nationals in your constitution, to make an exception for the UK?  8)

And note that  these are all problems that don't go away even if the UK opts for a soft Brexit....

Q

I saw a bit of a select committee hearing yesterday at which the head of HMRC was being asked to provide detailed analysis of the "customs partnership" and " max fac" options, including questions such as when each option could realistically be operational. Both options have already been dismissed by the EU as non-starters, but you'd never guess that from watching this. Even now the cabinet is split over which one to go for, as if it mattered. The only "new" thinking appears to be a vague suggestion that maybe we could have a hybrid of the two, because clearly a hybrid of two non-starters is bound to be accepted by the EU. They really are utterly insulated from reality, but time is now running out fast and it won't be long before reality intrudes.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 25, 2018, 04:08:39 PM
Daniel Hannan was on Newsnight tonight. It was put to him that the reason the Brexit negotiations are such a shambles is that the Tory party is fundamentally split from top to bottom, including the cabinet, therefore the government simply cannot even work out what its position should be (let alone come up with a workable plan to implement said position). No, said Hannan, that's not the problem: the problem is that remainers in parliament are doing the EU's work for it by trying to stop Brexit, so there's no need for the EU to offer us a good deal. Isn't it great to see Brexiters taking responsibility for the consequences of their actions?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 25, 2018, 11:20:08 PM
The general feeling in other member states is that the political instability of the UK is increasingly likely to be an obstacle to come to any agreement: no divorce settlement, no transition deal, nothing... Increasing the chances of an immediate hard "cliff edge" exit.

Let's hope for a last minute transition deal (without a long term trade deal)....
If worse comes to worse, the EU might offer an extension of the negotiations. Which would be a political decision based on the expectations on the development of the political situation in the UK.
In either case, end of 2020 will be the real cut off date - because the EU is not going to drag this into the term of the new EU budget.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 27, 2018, 05:24:25 AM
He's at it again:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/27/jacob-rees-mogg-urges-may-to-revive-her-no-deal-threat-to-brussels (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/27/jacob-rees-mogg-urges-may-to-revive-her-no-deal-threat-to-brussels)

So we hold a gun to our own head and threaten to pull the trigger if the EU doesn't give us what the government wants (granted, the government still hasn't managed to decide what it wants, but never mind). "Give us what we want or the UK gets it" - the EU will be quaking in its boots at that one.

Rees Mogg makes as much sense as Alex Deane, a Brexiter who sometimes appears on BBC discussions, who said that the UK's solutions to the Irish border are perfectly reasonable and the EU needs to get real. Not the Brexiters, who spent years campaigning to get us out of the EU but never bothered to come up with a plan for how to do it if they won, and now blame "EU intransigence" when their desperate back of a fag packet "solutions" are exposed as unworkable. Oh no. They're not to blame. They're never to blame. It's the EU's fault.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 28, 2018, 01:52:04 AM
Quote from: Que on May 25, 2018, 11:20:08 PM
The general feeling in other member states is that the political instability of the UK is increasingly likely to be an obstacle to come to any agreement: no divorce settlement, no transition deal, nothing... Increasing the chances of an immediate hard "cliff edge" exit.

Let's hope for a last minute transition deal (without a long term trade deal)....
If worse comes to worse, the EU might offer an extension of the negotiations. Which would be a political decision based on the expectations on the development of the political situation in the UK.
In either case, end of 2020 will be the real cut off date - because the EU is not going to drag this into the term of the new EU budget.

Q

Similar comments in the Irish Times

Very different referendums raise concern for the Union.
Ideology rather than practical politics still dominates UK Brexit discourse
(https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/very-different-referendums-raise-concern-for-the-union-1.3510174)

Meanwhile, the adults at the Bank of England revealed this week they are preparing for a disorderly Brexit. They have, I think, spotted that the UK is drifting precisely towards that outcome. The Brexiteers know that if they can stop anybody actually doing anything, hard Brexit happens in a short while.

Fasten your seatbelts.....  ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: drogulus on May 28, 2018, 11:07:55 AM

     In Britain, Austerity Is Changing Everything (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/28/world/europe/uk-austerity-poverty.html)

     Perhaps the link to Brexit has been made, but it seems that since Britain isn't subject to fiscal strangulation like Greece, Brits must do it themselves.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 28, 2018, 11:30:08 AM
Quote from: drogulus on May 28, 2018, 11:07:55 AM
     In Britain, Austerity Is Changing Everything (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/28/world/europe/uk-austerity-poverty.html)

     Perhaps the link to Brexit has been made, but it seems that since Britain isn't subject to fiscal strangulation like Greece, Brits must do it themselves.

The link to Brexit is that the referendum campaign was an exercise in persuading as many people as possible to blame "Brussels" for the problems mentioned in the article. It's abundantly clear that these are problems caused in Westminster, but unfortunately just enough people swallowed the Brexiters' crap and they got over the line. Ironically, many of the most hardline Brexiters are also the most enthusiastic supporters of Thatcherite/neoliberal economics in general and austerity in particular. So in persuading people to vote for Brexit they also managed to deflect the blame for the consequences of their own policies. And when Brexit goes tits up that will be spun as the EU's fault as well.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: drogulus on May 28, 2018, 12:25:25 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on May 28, 2018, 11:30:08 AM
The link to Brexit is that the referendum campaign was an exercise in persuading as many people as possible to blame "Brussels" for the problems mentioned in the article. It's abundantly clear that these are problems caused in Westminster, but unfortunately just enough people swallowed the Brexiters' crap and they got over the line. Ironically, many of the most hardline Brexiters are also the most enthusiastic supporters of Thatcherite/neoliberal economics in general and austerity in particular. So in persuading people to vote for Brexit they also managed to deflect the blame for the consequences of their own policies. And when Brexit goes tits up that will be spun as the EU's fault as well.

    That's pretty much how I interpret it. First you get austere economics, then smash the system politics, more austerity because budgets are more important than economic well being, and on and on.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 28, 2018, 02:55:57 PM
Quote from: drogulus on May 28, 2018, 12:25:25 PM
    That's pretty much how I interpret it. First you get austere economics, then smash the system politics, more austerity because budgets are more important than economic well being, and on and on.

On top of that you also have a UK media landscape which has been utterly dominated by the right for decades. Most of the printed press is rabidly right wing, and because they've largely succeeded in setting the agenda, the broadcasters  - which are supposed to be neutral - have largely followed that agenda, at least in terms of the issues that do and don't get much coverage. Labour under Blair got in largely because they made it clear they wouldn't rock the boat. So, we got some welcome measures like the minimum wage but also a continuation of the outsourcing of public services to corporate charlatans and the fundamental tenets of Thatcherism were left undisturbed. As a result it was easy for Cameron and Osborne to get rid of what bits of progress were made under Blair.

Now for the first time in decades we've got a major party leader, Corbyn, who is not willing to go along with this Thatcherite consensus. The media reaction has been entirely predictable, with one hysterical attempt at character assassination after another and shameless double standards in the reporting of policy: Corbyn says the government should invest to grow the economy, so we get a chorus of "but how will he pay for it?" - not a question that gets asked with so much urgency when the Tories give away truckloads of cash in tax cuts for corporations and wealthy individuals. This mendacious nonsense masquerading as journalism is now so normalised that we have parts of England which have never recovered from the devastating impact of Thatcherism now voting for the same party that screwed them in the first place because of Brexit, in the belief that Brexit will provide a refuge from globalisation - even though the leading Tory Brexiteers want Brexit precisely in order to give us neoliberalism on steroids. I think we can safely say this will not end well.       
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 28, 2018, 09:52:19 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on May 28, 2018, 02:55:57 PM
I think we can safely say this will not end well.     

That looks increasingly likely....

I have been wondering what the EU could do to avoid the whole thing going of the cliff. Which would be devastating for the UK, very damaging for the EU (notably Ireland, Danmark, Germany, Netherlands and Belgium) and hurtful for a future relationship.

Apart from giving in to blackmail, buying time and hoping for a domestic political shift seems the best option.
The best situation would be if the UK signs a transition deal along the lines, including the NI backstop, that were agreed upon last December. Next option would be an extention of the negotiations. The problem with that is that is likely to continue the political deadlock in the UK. It would be a huge gamble. But then again, there is little to lose compared to the alternative....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 28, 2018, 10:20:41 PM
A classic "Dolchstoßlegende" (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stab-in-the-back_myth) - a myth on backstabbing treachery:


It's time to challenge the conduct of some civil servants over Brexit (https://brexitcentral.com/time-challenge-conduct-civil-servants-brexit/) (Brexit Central).

Potentially powerful and dangerous stuff.... If I were a (higher ranking) British civil servant, I would be looking for employment elsewhere... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: ahinton on May 28, 2018, 11:56:30 PM
Quote from: Que on May 28, 2018, 10:20:41 PM
A classic "Dolchstoßlegende" (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stab-in-the-back_myth) - a myth on backstabbing treachery:


It's time to challenge the conduct of some civil servants over Brexit (https://brexitcentral.com/time-challenge-conduct-civil-servants-brexit/) (Brexit Central).

Potentially powerful and dangerous stuff.... If I were a (higher ranking) British civil servant, I would be looking for employment elsewhere.
But presumably not in Italy...

On top of all the mess that the UK government has gotten UK into over "Brexit", just how embarrassing will it be if, by the close of the so-called "transition period" and after spending vast sums on "Brexit", there will no longer be an EU from which to "Brexit"?...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 29, 2018, 04:50:36 AM
Quote from: Que on May 28, 2018, 09:52:19 PM
That looks increasingly likely....

I have been wondering what the EU could do to avoid the whole thing going of the cliff. Which would be devastating for the UK, very damaging for the EU (notably Ireland, Danmark, Germany, Netherlands and Belgium) and hurtful for a future relationship.

Apart from giving in to blackmail, buying time and hoping for a domestic political shift seems the best option.
The best situation would be if the UK signs a transition deal along the lines, including the NI backstop, that were agreed upon last December. Next option would be an extention of the negotiations. The problem with that is that is likely to continue the political deadlock in the UK. It would be a huge gamble. But then again, there is little to lose compared to the alternative....

Q

As damaging as a no deal Brexit would be, I'm starting to wonder if it's the only thing that will provoke an outbreak of rationality. If we get a hard Brexit and the disastrous impact is felt quickly, it's more likely that the public will associate that impact with Brexit than a scenario in which we get some kind of deal which is pretty poor and ends up doing similar damage, but over a longer period of time and much more gradually. The latter would be the frog in boiling water scenario.

There is the obvious risk I mentioned before: that a disastrous impact which happens quickly would be blamed on the EU. But we'd just have to hope that enough people, especially leave voters, would see through that and pin at least some of the blame on Brexit itself. The alternative is little better: if we get anything less than the hardest of hard Brexits, we'll be told that any adverse effects are due to not getting a sufficiently hard Brexit, and if only we'd gone for the Farage/Rees-Mogg option then everything would be fine. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 29, 2018, 10:32:03 PM
Quote from: ahinton on May 28, 2018, 11:56:30 PM
But presumably not in Italy...

On top of all the mess that the UK government has gotten UK into over "Brexit", just how embarrassing will it be if, by the close of the so-called "transition period" and after spending vast sums on "Brexit", there will no longer be an EU from which to "Brexit"?...

I wouldn't count my chicken before they are hatched..... :D

Contrary to the UK, almost nobody in Italy really wants to leave the EU....

These populist parties (kind of) want to leave the euro, so they can spend themselves blind while already sitting on the 2nd largest debt in Europe (after Greece). Extra spending is however unlikely to help much, since Italy has failed to reform its economy.
Leaving the euro is theoretically possible, and it wouldn't necessarily lead to a collapse of the euro. What it definitely would do, is an immediate abondoning of Italy by the financial markets and a subsequent collapse of its economy. Nobody is going to lend Italy all that money to spend flush down the toilet after it has left the euro.

The idea of European Union falling apart is probably wishful thinking....  8)
Sofar in its history, every crisis in the EU was a trigger for further reform and strengthing of integration.

This time a reform of the eurozone and debt restructuring are on the table.... The need of reform has been opposed by southern member states, and Germany has sofar blocked any restructuring of debt. The Italian crisis might trigger both....and the EU could come out stronger....

Never waste a good crisis... ;)

https://think-beyondtheobvious.com/stelter-in-den-medien/will-italy-spell-the-end-of-the-euro/

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 02, 2018, 12:34:02 AM
History tells us that you've reached a turning point when paranoia sets in:

THE SUN SAYS A global plot to destroy Brexit must be fought by Government and all MPs to defend our democracy (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6433594/global-plot-destroy-brexit-fought-government-mps-democracy/)

Warning: the links takes you to a British tabloid, pursue at your own risk

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 02, 2018, 04:28:03 AM
Quote from: Que on June 02, 2018, 12:34:02 AM
History tells us that you've reached a turning point when paranoia sets in:

THE SUN SAYS A global plot to destroy Brexit must be fought by Government and all MPs to defend our democracy (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6433594/global-plot-destroy-brexit-fought-government-mps-democracy/)

Warning: the links takes you to a British tabloid, pursue at your own risk

Q

I particularly enjoyed a paper owned by Rupert Murdoch complaining about a rich foreigner meddling in British politics.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 02, 2018, 04:05:27 PM
A peach of an article here about a frustrated Tory donor who wants to replace May with Gove:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/02/replace-theresa-may-with-michael-gove-tory-donor-says-brexit-uk-news
(https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/02/replace-theresa-may-with-michael-gove-tory-donor-says-brexit-uk-news)

This bit is a cracker:

QuoteOdey, whose most recent donation to the Conservative party was a £50,000 gift before last year's general election, said the government needed to be far bolder in its attitude to Brussels. It should be learning from the new Italian populist coalition government, which has plans that would defy EU rules on debt, he said, suggesting that Britain should start breaching EU rules by pursuing policies such as signing trade deals. He also backed a change in leadership.

"We've got to have that self-confidence to make breaches," he told the Observer. "There's no point in voting for freedom if you don't know what to do when you're free."

So acting illegally is "self-confidence". This is terrific news: if I am ever accused of breaking the law, I shall inform the arresting officer that I am merely showing the self-confidence to strike out in a new direction of my own choosing.

This bit is almost as good:

Quote"We should say, 'we've got to have life after this, so we're creating that life. We are creating trade agreements which are in breach of everything, because we won't be in breach by the time you come to take us to court'. That's how Elizabeth I would have been leading with this."

Wise words indeed. Because when you're trying to work out how to conduct complex negotiations in the 21st century, the first test you should apply is to ask yourself what an absolute monarch who died over four centuries ago would do. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 06, 2018, 05:18:04 PM
Interesting article here on Labour's Brexit policy:

http://politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/06/06/ok-so-what-the-bloody-hell-is-labour-s-brexit-policy-now (http://politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/06/06/ok-so-what-the-bloody-hell-is-labour-s-brexit-policy-now)

I can well believe that right wing Labour MPs like Caroline Flint would have scuppered any chance of the EEA amendment passing while letting Corbyn take the flak for it. There were apparently quite a few MPs at a recent PLP meeting saying they wouldn't vote for the EEA, though that was not widely reported.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 07, 2018, 10:46:30 PM
While the UK is on the verge of a political "Brexit meltdown", the Germans offer a reprieve:

Wolfgang Schäuble: EU 'ready to' give UK more time on Brexit

Europe will do 'whatever we can' to have close relations with Britain post-Brexit, Germany's former finance minister says.

(https://www.politico.eu/article/wolfgang-schauble-eu-ready-to-give-uk-more-time-on-brexit/)

It is a very generous offer, I would take it..... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 08, 2018, 10:11:24 AM
Quote from: Que on June 07, 2018, 10:46:30 PM
While the UK is on the verge of a political "Brexit meltdown", the Germans offer a reprieve:

Wolfgang Schäuble: EU 'ready to' give UK more time on Brexit

Europe will do 'whatever we can' to have close relations with Britain post-Brexit, Germany's former finance minister says.

(https://www.politico.eu/article/wolfgang-schauble-eu-ready-to-give-uk-more-time-on-brexit/)

It is a very generous offer, I would take it..... ::)

Q

We have a foreign secretary who thinks we should take a leaf out of Donald Trump's book in our approach to Brexit. I wouldn't bet on the UK doing much that is sensible. Though May might be grateful if the EU offered more time, since she appears to be a big fan of kicking crunch decisions down the road, and she's currently fast running out of road.

Brexit ultra Peter Bone on last night's Newsnight:

"We should just stop the negotiations and go to WTO terms, and we wouldn't have to put up a border in Northern Ireland."

It was then pointed out to him by Evan Davis (Newsnight presenter) that WTO terms require a border.

"No, they just require sincere cooperation."

Davis tried to correct him but Bone was on a roll:

"So, the legal situation.....oh I don't care, let's just come out."

So his solution is to stop negotiations and revert to WTO rules, while breaking WTO rules.

I know it's tempting to dismiss Bone as a lunatic, and so he is, but these people now wield huge influence in the Tory party. It can therefore be no surprise to anyone that Brexit is such a fiasco.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 09, 2018, 12:07:31 AM
While the Brexit process is descending into chaos, time for a more humorous approach...  ;)


Donald Trump does Brexit — it's HUGE (https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-does-brexit-its-huge/)


Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 09, 2018, 04:49:49 AM
Quote from: Que on June 09, 2018, 12:07:31 AM
While the Brexit process is descending into chaos, time for a more humorous approach...  ;)


Donald Trump does Brexit — it's HUGE (https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-does-brexit-its-huge/)


Q

We can laugh, but there are leave voters who would read that and nod vigorously in agreement - one example being the woman on Question Time who opined that what the UK needs to make Brexit a success is to channel the spirit of Churchill.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on June 09, 2018, 07:03:28 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on June 09, 2018, 04:49:49 AM
We can laugh, but there are leave voters who would read that and nod vigorously in agreement - one example being the woman on Question Time who opined that what the UK needs to make Brexit a success is to channel the spirit of Churchill.
Churchill wouldn't have held the stupid referendum in the first place!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 09, 2018, 10:44:44 PM
Quote from: vandermolen on June 09, 2018, 07:03:28 AM
Churchill wouldn't have held the stupid referendum in the first place!

From what I've read on his opinions on democracy: indeed, he would have been strongly against it. :)

Quote from: Mr. Minnow on June 09, 2018, 04:49:49 AM
We can laugh, but there are leave voters who would read that and nod vigorously in agreement - one example being the woman on Question Time who opined that what the UK needs to make Brexit a success is to channel the spirit of Churchill.

You're right, the whole situation is not funny. A lot of people, including many politicians, are completely clueless....

In the hope to cheer you up: I think a hard brexit is unlikely for the simple reason that it doesn't carry a majority - not in public opinion, not in parliament and not even in the Conservative party....

The best reflection of the referendum result - and probably current public sentiment as well - would be a (very) soft Brexit (customs union + internal market = "Norway plus").

The problem is that May's government will be unable to deliver that. And due to Corbyn, there might insufficient support in parliament to force her hand...

My prediction will be the collapse of the Tory govt and new general elections, on which occasion the EU will offer an extension of negotiations. Another option would a 2nd referendum, which would offer eurosceptic Corbyn a chance to wash his hands of the whole issue.... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: drogulus on June 10, 2018, 01:56:12 PM

     How a Journalist Kept Russia's Secret Links to Brexit Under Wraps (https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-a-journalist-kept-russias-secret-links-to-brexit-under-wraps?source=articles&via=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+thedailybeast%2Farticles+%28The+Daily+Beast+-+Latest+Articles%29)

Leading Brexit campaigners have pulled out of a grilling by MPs after claiming they were being targeted in a "co-ordinated witch hunt" of Leave groups.

Arron Banks, a major funder of Leave.EU, and colleague Andy Wigmore had been due to appear before the influential Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee as part of its fake news inquiry, which is looking at the use of targeted online advertising.

However the pair dramatically pulled out of giving evidence on June 20 over their concerns and warned that the committee "comprises of only Remain supporting MPs".



     This sounds familiar to me. Why do people doing deals with Russians for politics or money or both all say the same thing? Why aren't they proud of what they have done and tell us what happened in all the meetings they held, who paid and who got paid and what for? Why is everyone involved in what will one day be BrexiPutin so shy? (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/cheesy.gif)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 11, 2018, 03:57:53 AM
Quote from: Que on June 09, 2018, 10:44:44 PM
You're right, the whole situation is not funny. A lot of people, including many politicians, are completely clueless....

In the hope to cheer you up: I think a hard brexit is unlikely for the simple reason that it doesn't carry a majority - not in public opinion, not in parliament and not even in the Conservative party....

The best reflection of the referendum result - and probably current public sentiment as well - would be a (very) soft Brexit (customs union + internal market = "Norway plus").

The problem is that May's government will be unable to deliver that. And due to Corbyn, there might insufficient support in parliament to force her hand...

My prediction will be the collapse of the Tory govt and new general elections, on which occasion the EU will offer an extension of negotiations. Another option would a 2nd referendum, which would offer eurosceptic Corbyn a chance to wash his hands of the whole issue.... ::)

Q

A hard Brexit would obviously be a disaster, but that's never stopped the Tory right before and it won't stop them now. If May sticks to her red lines then one version or another of hard Brexit is what we'll get: it would mean either a really bad deal, or no deal at all. If she gets something more like a soft Brexit that will lead to cries of betrayal and the ERG will probably trigger a leadership election in the hope of replacing her with someone more to their liking  - i.e. someone who would tear up a soft Brexit deal and give us a hard Brexit instead. If that means we crash out with no deal the ERG are fine with that.

What's so alarming is that we leave in nine months and the government is still negotiating with itself and its MPs rather than with the EU. It's easy to overlook the fact that the default position of A50 is that at the end of March we're out, whether we have a deal or not. If the current farce continues we won't even be close to concluding a deal in time, especially bearing in mind that in practical terms any deal needs to be concluded by around October to give the member states' parliaments and regional parliaments time to ratify it. In fact we're probably too late now anyway, having utterly wasted the two years since the referendum. I had thought that sanity might have started to assert itself by now, but there's no sign of it.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 11, 2018, 03:11:30 PM
Even by current standards, today has been a stellar one for Brexit-related lunacy. Remember Crispin Odey, the Brexiteer hedge fund manager who recently said it was time to "have the self-confidence" to breach EU rules because that's what Elizabeth I would have done? Well he's been showing his confidence in Brexit by, er, betting against British businesses (it's a sign of how bad things are getting when you see a story like this in the Mail):

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/investing/article-5824697/Brexiteer-Odey-bets-500m-AGAINST-British-businesses.html (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/investing/article-5824697/Brexiteer-Odey-bets-500m-AGAINST-British-businesses.html)

QuoteOdey's apparent lack of confidence in flagship British firms stands in marked contrast to his fund's investments in other countries, including France, Germany and the US, where he is mainly backing shares to rise.


The flamboyant fund manager, who once spent more than £100,000 on a chicken coop dubbed Cluckingham Palace at his Gloucestershire mansion, has given hundreds of thousands to campaigns backing Britain's separation from the European Union including Global Britain and the Democracy Movement.

He is a longstanding supporter of fellow Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg, funding the Conservative MP's Election campaign in 2015. In 2007, he also helped Rees-Mogg set up an investment firm of his own, Somerset Capital Management, which has virtually no investments in the UK, but large holdings in Russia.

In addition to its short positions against British shares, Odey Asset Management has taken a £150 million bet against the value of Government bonds.

Why can't these people just believe in Britain?


Then we had Jacob Rees-Mogg showing that Peter Bone isn't the only Brexit fanatic who doesn't seem to understand the very WTO rules they're apparently so keen on:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/11/rees-mogg-no-need-for-customs-checks-at-dover-in-no-deal-brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/11/rees-mogg-no-need-for-customs-checks-at-dover-in-no-deal-brexit)

QuoteJacob Rees-Mogg has said that there would be no need for customs checks at Dover on EU imports in the event of a no-deal Brexit, suggesting that any delays for exports to Europe would be France's responsibility.

The leading Conservative party Brexiter said checks would not be needed because EU goods could be trusted.

However, his vision was immediately dismissed by legal experts as a breach of World Trade Organization rules because it would amount to discriminatory practice.

This was followed by an interview on LBC radio with Arron Banks, the financial backer of the Leave.EU campaign, on the subject of possible links between the campaign and Russia. Clearly, that's a serious subject which required an impeccably impartial interviewer. And who was that interviewer? Step forward Nigel Farage, friend of Arron Banks.

The crowning cherry on the idiot cake came on Newsnight, when Tory Brexiteer Andrea Jenkyns decried people "talking the country down" and said we should "make it clear we're willing to walk away with no deal". How could we do this? Well, Andrea thinks we have two trump cards to play: first, we tell the EU that over 17 million people voted for Brexit. Quite why the EU should be impressed by this, let alone why it would force them to change their position, is not clear. Second, we threaten not to pay the £39 million so-called "divorce bill", which is not a divorce bill at all, but an obligation to settle commitments already agreed to, which even the UK government has acknowledged. So if we shout "will of the people" at Michel Barnier while establishing a reputation as a country that can't be trusted to honour its commitments, we'll be fine.

Whoever said there's no plan? 



Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on June 11, 2018, 09:30:02 PM
If there ever was a moment in this century that the UK and EU should be/remain united instead of divided, it would be right now.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on June 11, 2018, 10:40:37 PM
Quote from: Marc on June 11, 2018, 09:30:02 PM
If there ever was a moment in this century that the UK and EU should be/remain united instead of divided, it would be right now.
Totally agree with you.

Brexit is like turkeys voting for Christmas.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 15, 2018, 03:56:04 PM

Another Exhausting, Agonizing Week of Brexit (https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-the-uk/another-exhausting-agonizing-week-of-brexit) (The New Yorker)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 16, 2018, 01:34:44 AM
Royal Mail has been pushed by Brexiteers to issue stamps to commemorate Brexit.

It declined the idea, but look what happened to the newly issued series of stamps dedicated to the tv series "Dad's Army":

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8c2e384abec6ecad06e1400956a4fc168f3e4844/250_250_5392_3236/master/5392.jpg?w=620&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=53e7dd364f93c9b3d4efc846bd6608fe)

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/13AE0/production/_101980608_mediaitem101980605.jpg)

(https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/NINTCHDBPICT000412576592.jpg?w=960)

(https://blog.westminstercollection.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Dads-Army-stamps-product-images-5.png)


Well, the joke isn't lost on me - an epic display of British humour....  :D

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 16, 2018, 02:51:33 PM
Quote from: vandermolen on June 11, 2018, 10:40:37 PM

Brexit is like turkeys voting for Christmas.

Stop talking down the slaughterhouse. Bloody Remoaner.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 19, 2018, 07:19:14 AM
https://twitter.com/davies_will/status/1008998820754190336 (https://twitter.com/davies_will/status/1008998820754190336)

Is there any price to pay for Brexit which would be too high? Apparently not.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 20, 2018, 05:40:19 PM
To the surprise of no-one, many of the pro-EU Tory "rebels" backed down after "winning" a feeble non-concession from the government - that's the government who lied to them just a week ago, but whose word they're still prepared to accept. So the "meaningful vote" on the final deal will presumably be a choice between whatever rotten deal May gets (assuming she gets one), or crashing out with no deal at all. In other words, it will be a choice between the guillotine or a firing squad. Meanwhile, the EU summit is almost upon us and there appears to be little if any progress on the outstanding issues - you know, minor details like the Irish border.

Just found this elsewhere - I've bolded the last line, as it's a real gem which eloquently encapsulates the lunacy of the Brexit negotiations:


QuoteJust to give you an idea of the levels of ignorance, incompetance and stupidity we are talking about, with the entire aviation threatened to be grounded by March, the government are (only now) recruiting a:

Head of Aviation EU Exit Negotiations
Leading on the overall negotiating position on aviation for the Government, your duties will include:
• establishing, leading and managing the core aviation negotiating team, and ensuring its close coordination with existing policy and legislation teams
• overseeing negotiations with the EU on the future of our aviation safety and airspace relationships
• contributing to the formulation and implementation of the UK's future aviation strategy and development of related legislation and policies
Prior knowledge of airspace and the aviation sector is an advantage but not necessary.

You really couldn't make this up.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 26, 2018, 03:02:20 PM
It turns out the anti-Brexit conspiracy is even more widespread than we thought - even the US embassy is in on it too:

https://twitter.com/davemacladd/status/1011636382786314240 (https://twitter.com/davemacladd/status/1011636382786314240)

The analysis is both depressing and brutally accurate.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on June 27, 2018, 09:54:53 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on June 26, 2018, 03:02:20 PMThe analysis is both depressing and brutally accurate.
The whole documentary - Inside the American Embassy - looks fascinating. Also, because the Trumpian ''policy'' is to destroy European cooperation and support anti-democratic movements, but inside the American Embassy they openly discuss the disaster Brexit brings: http://www.channel4.com/programmes/inside-the-american-embassy
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Karl Henning on June 29, 2018, 06:56:08 AM
You lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas . . .

'Bad Boys of Brexit' forged ties with Trump's campaign and Russia — and came under scrutiny (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/how-the-bad-boys-of-brexit-forged-ties-with-russia-and-the-trump-campaign--and-came-under-investigators-scrutiny/2018/06/28/6e3a5e9c-7656-11e8-b4b7-308400242c2e_story.html?utm_term=.a99f6c96132a)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 01, 2018, 12:49:28 AM
My thoughts exactly:

Britain now has 3 Brexit options: capitulate, crash, or extend (https://jonworth.eu/britain-now-has-3-brexit-options-capitulate-crash-or-extend/)

Rumour has it that May wants to move towards a soft Brexit. But that might trigger her fall, since Tory Brexiteers evidently want to crash out of the EU...

My money is on an extension till end of 2020, basically "absorbing" the time that was designated to be a transition period into the negotiations.

Since neither Tories nor Labour seem able to resolve their internal divisions on Brexit, I am not ruling out the possibility of a 2nd referendum...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: drogulus on July 01, 2018, 07:27:47 AM

     The Other Russia Collusion Scandal Is Breaking Wide Open (http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/06/the-british-russia-collusion-scandal-is-breaking-wide-open.html)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on July 01, 2018, 12:11:17 PM
I am reminded of Gregor von Rezzzori's book The Snows of Yesteryears.

One of the author's aunts, confronted with the Austrian/German post-1918-19 debacle, stated: Just do whatever you want, gentlemen, our world is doomed anyway, let the Devil take care of it all.





Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on July 01, 2018, 03:17:21 PM
Quote from: Que on July 01, 2018, 12:49:28 AM
My thoughts exactly:

Britain now has 3 Brexit options: capitulate, crash, or extend (https://jonworth.eu/britain-now-has-3-brexit-options-capitulate-crash-or-extend/)

Rumour has it that May wants to move towards a soft Brexit. But that might trigger her fall, since Tory Brexiteers evidently want to crash out of the EU...

My money is on an extension till end of 2020, basically "absorbing" the time that was designated to be a transition period into the negotiations.

Since neither Tories nor Labour seem able to resolve their internal divisions on Brexit, I am not ruling out the possibility of a 2nd referendum...

Q

I'm not even sure that "extend" will be an option for much longer, at least not if it means "kick the can down the road yet again". They've been doing that for the last two years, and the reason is simple: the divisions in the cabinet and the Tory party are so fundamental that it's pretty well impossible to see how the chasm could be bridged. Kicking the can down the road again seems pretty pointless, since it's not going to resolve that basic problem - they'd just waste even more time and still be faced with the same divisions. If the language used by Tusk and others after last week's summit is any guide, the EU is fast losing patience with this incessant prevarication.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 02, 2018, 09:23:52 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on July 01, 2018, 03:17:21 PM
I'm not even sure that "extend" will be an option for much longer, at least not if it means "kick the can down the road yet again". They've been doing that for the last two years, and the reason is simple: the divisions in the cabinet and the Tory party are so fundamental that it's pretty well impossible to see how the chasm could be bridged. Kicking the can down the road again seems pretty pointless, since it's not going to resolve that basic problem - they'd just waste even more time and still be faced with the same divisions. If the language used by Tusk and others after last week's summit is any guide, the EU is fast losing patience with this incessant prevarication.

All perfectly valid points!  :)

The EU wouldn't want to be responsible for keeping the current UK govt in the saddle, because that has been and probably will be a recipe for disaster. And it wouldn't want to get this issue out of the way instead of dragging it any further. For the EU any (acceptable) deal is therefore preferable to an extension: Canada type or any other.

The problem is a no deal crash: that will be so economically damaging - to the EU - that a simple delay of one a half years could save millions, if not billions. Even if there still would be a crash at the end of the road. More time to prepare and divert lines of supply and demand. Meanwhile the UK economy will continue to slip down, as is already the case. Another advantage is that it will solve the problem of the current EU budget.

So yes, it will a big loss of face and continue the agony, but even the Germans are willing to swollow the pride...
Of course the EU is going to wait till the very last minute and the UK has to ask for it. And naturally the fall of the UK govt before that moment would be the preferable scenario, so that the extended negotiations could be conducted with a new govt.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on July 02, 2018, 04:13:07 PM
Quote from: Que on July 02, 2018, 09:23:52 AM
All perfectly valid points!  :)

The EU wouldn't want to be responsible for keeping the current UK govt in the saddle, because that has been and probably will be a recipe for disaster. And it wouldn't want to get this issue out of the way instead of dragging it any further. For the EU any (acceptable) deal is therefore preferable to an extension: Canada type or any other.

The problem is a no deal crash: that will be so economically damaging - to the EU - that a simple delay of one a half years could save millions, if not billions. Even if there still would be a crash at the end of the road. More time to prepare and divert lines of supply and demand. Meanwhile the UK economy will continue to slip down, as is already the case. Another advantage is that it will solve the problem of the current EU budget.

So yes, it will a big loss of face and continue the agony, but even the Germans are willing to swollow the pride...
Of course the EU is going to wait till the very last minute and the UK has to ask for it. And naturally the fall of the UK govt before that moment would be the preferable scenario, so that the extended negotiations could be conducted with a new govt.

Q

The damage that no deal would do to the EU would be significant, but for the UK it would be utterly catastrophic. That means the UK has a lot more to lose and the EU knows it, so they also know the UK will have to blink first (unless much of the Tory party is now completely insane, which is possible).

You're right that the EU will want an acceptable deal ASAP, but the problem is that even at this late stage the UK government doesn't seem to grasp what the EU defines as acceptable. It means a deal with no cherry picking, especially where the four freedoms are concerned, and nothing which undermines the single market, yet Friday's cabinet meeting is apparently going to be presented with a third customs option which proposes staying in the single market for goods but not services, while also leaving the customs union. The talk here is of whether May will be able to get her cabinet to sign up to it, even though the EU has already said it's not a runner. The usual response to that is "oh well they would say that, this is a negotiation, they'll back down at the last minute". Maybe, but I wouldn't put money on it. Meanwhile we have the Irish border issue to solve and Rees Mogg warning that May will split the party if she fails to deliver the One True Brexit. So it's all going smoothly.   

It would seem that the only realistic options are a hard Brexit, or Norway Plus, i.e. CU + SM membership. When May finally decides which one to go for the faeces will be on a collision course with the fan.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 06, 2018, 10:42:37 PM
So, May's so called "soft" Brexit is a UK-EU free trade area for goods.

Brexit: Theresa May, Cabinet agree to UK-EU free trade area for goods (https://www.dw.com/en/brexit-theresa-may-cabinet-agree-to-uk-eu-free-trade-area-for-goods/a-44563350)

It is basically the internal market minus the free movement - and regulatory  alignment - of services, capital and people (labour). Without supervision by the EU Court of Justice....

Oh, and according to the UK govt, this will resolve the NI border issue... I think not... ::)

The EU has defended the indivisibility and integrity of the internal market right from the start of the negotiations: no internal market à la carte, no cherry picking.... And what does the UK govt come up with?  ::)

Not only is it unlikely for the EU to agree with such a scheme, it leaves services as the biggest chunk of UK-EU trade relations out in the dark. This seems mainly to be designed to persuade car and plane manufacturers to stay and prevent empty supermarkets after Brexit day... I highly doubt if this scheme would persuade manufacturers to stay - the underlying principle of the internal market is that all its elements are economically interconnected.

Conclusion: another fudge, of which Brexiteers assumed that it will be rejected by the EU - so that they can put the blame there.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on July 07, 2018, 06:12:15 AM
Quote from: Que on July 06, 2018, 10:42:37 PM
So, May's so called "soft" Brexit is a UK-EU free trade area for goods.

Brexit: Theresa May, Cabinet agree to UK-EU free trade area for goods (https://www.dw.com/en/brexit-theresa-may-cabinet-agree-to-uk-eu-free-trade-area-for-goods/a-44563350)

It is basically the internal market minus the free movement - and regulatory  alignment - of services, capital and people (labour). Without supervision by the EU Court of Justice....

Oh, and according to the UK govt, this will resolve the NI border issue... I think not... ::)

The EU has defended the indivisibility and integrity of the internal market right from the start of the negotiations: no internal market à la carte, no cherry picking.... And what does the UK govt come up with?  ::)

Not only is it unlikely for the EU to agree with such a scheme, it leaves services as the biggest chunk of UK-EU trade relations out in the dark. This seems mainly to be designed to persuade car and plane manufacturers to stay and prevent empty supermarkets after Brexit day... I highly doubt if this scheme would persuade manufacturers to stay - the underlying principle of the internal market is that all its elements are economically interconnected.

Conclusion: another fudge, of which Brexiteers assumed that it will be rejected by the EU - so that they can put the blame there.

Q

Yes, it might be a soft Brexit for about 20% of the economy, but for the other 80%? Not so much. And even if we assume that the "plan" for the 20% is both workable and acceptable to the EU (two rather large assumptions to say the least), for the other 80% it's clearly cherry picking as usual, which the EU has been saying for the last two years is a non-starter. So either May agrees to SM + CU membership, ECJ jurisdiction and freedom of movement - either literally, or possibly rebranding those things with shiny new names but still amounting to the same thing in practice - or we get a hard Brexit.

Even if the EU were to accept this fudge - and like you, I'll be amazed if that happens given that it would contradict everything Barnier has said for the last two years - it's still unlikely it would get through the Commons. Most Labour MPs and the smaller parties would probably vote against it for not being a soft enough Brexit, while Bertie Wooster and his ERG chums are already saying that this isn't really Brexit, so they wouldn't support it either.

With delicious irony, the Daily Mail comments section currently appears to consist largely of hardline leavers crying betrayal and explicitly stating that they now hope the EU tells May where to stick it, so we can leave with no deal and trade on WTO terms!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 07, 2018, 07:13:00 AM
"We will try to receive it as well as possible but from what we understand it is still a carve-out of the single market," said the source, describing May's proposed single market for goods as "a lot of fudge with a cherry on top".

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/07/eu-diplomats-theresa-may-brexit-compromise

Yep....  8)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 08, 2018, 12:25:46 AM
On the Brexit blog by Richard North:

Brexit: a dog's breakfast (http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86925)

He seems to assume there will be a hard Brexit with a possible transition period.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on July 08, 2018, 06:36:14 AM
Quote from: Que on July 08, 2018, 12:25:46 AM
On the Brexit blog by Richard North:

Brexit: a dog's breakfast (http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86925)

He seems to assume there will be a hard Brexit with a possible transition period.

Q

He may well be right. If the EU rejects May's proposal - and given the blatant cherry-picking involved I don't see how it could possibly accept it - the narrative will be that we bent over backwards to compromise, while the EU was intransigent and only interested in punishing us. So hey, we did try to get a deal, but the EU wasn't interested. We then presumably head for a hard Brexit unless failure to reach a deal produces a major swing against Brexit in public opinion.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on July 08, 2018, 05:56:38 PM
David Davis and two other Brexit ministers have resigned - that's three ministers out of five. Perhaps the Department for Exiting the EU should be renamed the Department for Exiting the Department for Exiting the EU.

When this farce first started there was speculation the EU would set out to make an example of the UK in order to discourage other countries from considering leaving. As it is, there's been no need to - the UK has done that very effectively itself. Comparing the way the EU has handled it with our government's conduct is just embarrassing. It's like a full strength Barcelona playing a pub team whose players don't even understand the rules of the game but are still convinced they're going to win. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 08, 2018, 10:06:32 PM
This is shocking.... ???

When after two years the UK govt finally picks a strategy, it starts falling apart....

It seems the pub team, after just standing there in the field, arguing amongst themselves and randomly trying to kick back balls that came in its direction, has decided to head back for the pub!  :D

All the EU now has to do is sit tight and wait for things to unfold. The approach of not rejecting the free market for goods scheme right out of hand and give off mildly positive and encouraging signals, proofs to be a very clever one.

Q

PS Everybody ready for the sequel to this drama, in which Jeremy Corbyn tries to get a à la carte internal market sans competition (= state aid) rules?  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on July 08, 2018, 11:58:07 PM
Total shambles.

You couldn't make it up.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 09, 2018, 10:57:23 PM
Quote from: vandermolen on July 08, 2018, 11:58:07 PM
Total shambles.

You couldn't make it up.

Indeed. The bizarre course of the Brexit process has exceded my wildest expectations....  ???

But someone needs to do something about it pretty soon, or else all the initial Titanic jokes will become a grim reality!  :(

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on July 10, 2018, 05:11:29 AM
'The Brexiteers — led largely by Mr. Johnson — sold the country a series of lies in the lead up to the June 2016 referendum ... because neither Mr. Johnson nor his fellow leader of the Leave campaign, Michael Gove, intended, wanted or expected to win. Because they were confident that the Leave campaign was a hopeless cause, they were free to make ridiculous claims that they had no expectation of ever having to fulfill.'
www.nytimes.com/2018/07/10/opinion/boris-johnson-resignation-brexit.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-right-region&region=opinion-c-col-right-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-right-region
And of course they're not leaving the sinking ship now in order to protest, let alone to really fight for a 'hard' Brexit, but because they know that any type of Brexit will be a disaster and they want to escape responsibility.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on July 10, 2018, 06:26:18 AM
Quote from: Christo on July 10, 2018, 05:11:29 AM
'The Brexiteers — led largely by Mr. Johnson — sold the country a series of lies in the lead up to the June 2016 referendum ... because neither Mr. Johnson nor his fellow leader of the Leave campaign, Michael Gove, intended, wanted or expected to win. Because they were confident that the Leave campaign was a hopeless cause, they were free to make ridiculous claims that they had no expectation of ever having to fulfill.'
www.nytimes.com/2018/07/10/opinion/boris-johnson-resignation-brexit.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-right-region&region=opinion-c-col-right-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-right-region
And of course they're not leaving the sinking ship now in order to protest, let alone to really fight for a 'hard' Brexit, but because they know that any type of Brexit will be a disaster and they want to escape responsibility.

Yes I agree - my mind recalls this entertaining, though increasingly prophetic, spoof (foul language):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-a6HNXtdvVQ
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on July 10, 2018, 06:44:15 AM
Not foul enough, I think.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 10, 2018, 09:09:06 AM
Reminds me of the comment my (American) wife made on the night Donald Trump was elected president:

"This is going to be a sh*t show of EPIC proportions...."

Q


PS Is this another case of "be careful what you wish for"?  ::)


EU negotiator Michel Barnier says 80% of Brexit deal is agreed
(https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/10/eu-michel-barnier-brexit-deal-four-fifths-agreed)

Is the EU going to agree to any remotely acceptable proposition by the UK govt, just to get rid of the issue?  ::)
I"m afraid that would reflect the mood in many European capitals....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Alek Hidell on July 10, 2018, 12:18:14 PM
Quote from: Que on July 10, 2018, 09:09:06 AM
Reminds me of the comment my (American) wife made on the night Donald Trump was elected president:

"This going to be a sh*t show of EPIC proportions...."

Q

Yep. It's been most enlightening to read through this thread from here in the U.S. where the Trump clown show heedlessly trudges on (I had not previously read much at all on Brexit and had only the vaguest notions of what's at stake, though from the start I figured it was a grave error) and be struck by how frighteningly similar our political situations are. Reactionaries with a contempt for "experts" and no actual plan or ability to govern, pie-in-the-sky promises that can never be kept (and when they fail to materialize, chalking it up to a failure of nerve), willfully ignorant voters responding to phony populism and nationalist yammering and thinking their vote was simply a "lark" with no real-world consequences, and even Russian meddling ... boy, the Brits have it all too.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on July 10, 2018, 01:06:03 PM
Europe will see both sides of Trump in the coming days. He'll roar and threaten in Brussels, then coo and meow in Moscow.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on July 10, 2018, 04:08:31 PM
Quote from: Que on July 10, 2018, 09:09:06 AM
Reminds me of the comment my (American) wife made on the night Donald Trump was elected president:

"This is going to be a sh*t show of EPIC proportions...."

Q


PS Is this another case of "be careful what you wish for"?  ::)


EU negotiator Michel Barnier says 80% of Brexit deal is agreed
(https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/10/eu-michel-barnier-brexit-deal-four-fifths-agreed)

Is the EU going to agree to any remotely acceptable proposition by the UK govt, just to get rid of the issue?  ::)
I"m afraid that would reflect the mood in many European capitals....

Q

I think "remotely acceptable" are the key words there. If the EU doesn't compromise on cherry-picking the four freedoms for member states, I can't see why they would do so for a third country. Reports in the UK media over the last few days have stated that EU sources have said that they don't want to be seen to immediately shoot down the Chequers position for fear of weakening May even further and making an already difficult situation even worse. So the public tone is more positive and the EU may try to move a bit where it can. But after Barnier's recent remarks about the fundamental importance of the single market I cannot imagine they are going to compromise on that, in which case either May has to give more ground or we get no deal.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on July 10, 2018, 04:28:53 PM
Quote from: Alek Hidell on July 10, 2018, 12:18:14 PM
Yep. It's been most enlightening to read through this thread from here in the U.S. where the Trump clown show heedlessly trudges on (I had not previously read much at all on Brexit and had only the vaguest notions of what's at stake, though from the start I figured it was a grave error) and be struck by how frighteningly similar our political situations are.

It is indeed uncanny, but at least you have a chance to vote Trump out. How we get out of the Brexit mess I have no idea.

QuoteReactionaries with a contempt for "experts" and no actual plan or ability to govern

The "no actual plan" part is especially staggering, because Brexit is the biggest political upheaval in the UK in living memory and many of the leading Brexiters have been campaigning for Brexit for years - decades in some cases. And yet, despite that they have never bothered to produce a rigorous, coherent, thoroughly researched plan explaining exactly what they want to achieve and how they think they can get there. They're great at meaningless slogans like "take back control" and crying betrayal at the drop of a hat. But ask them for a detailed plan and all you get is tumbleweed and the sound of crickets. Anyone who asks them to address the details and enormous problems of Brexit is then dismissed as a treacherous saboteur, one of those experts that can't be trusted, or both.

Quotepie-in-the-sky promises that can never be kept (and when they fail to materialize, chalking it up to a failure of nerve)

Not only a failure of nerve, but also the result of fifth column Remainers sabotaging their precious Brexit. And yes, terms like "fifth column" and "saboteurs" are the sort of language in which this "debate" is conducted.

Quotewillfully ignorant voters responding to phony populism and nationalist yammering

To be fair, some leave voters voted leave out of a desperation to be heard, although the extent of that has been overplayed. There were plenty of more affluent voters who had no such excuse and still swallowed the bullshit.

Quoteand thinking their vote was simply a "lark" with no real-world consequences, and even Russian meddling ... boy, the Brits have it all too.

Indeed we do. It can't end well, and it wouldn't surprise me if it leads to the break-up of the UK, to say nothing of the economic impact.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on July 16, 2018, 10:55:28 AM
There was a time when the Brexiters told us that Brexit would lead us to the "sunlit uplands". And now? Well, if Soubry is to be believed, this is where we are:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1018896316590673920 (https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1018896316590673920)

How things change. If true - and it's plausible enough from a party which has form on declaring large scale job losses a price worth paying in pursuit of its agenda - they're willing to sacrifice the jobs of vast numbers of people on the altar of their own ideology. Though not their own jobs of course. Such stirring patriotism.

In other news, May has prevented the ERG staging a show of parliamentary strength by, er.....caving in to their demands. All the ERG amendments to the trade bill have been accepted, even though they leave May's position dead in the water. That's the way to prevent a defeat - surrender first. Flawless logic.

No deal may now be the most likely outcome. There doesn't seem to be a majority in parliament for any type of Brexit and the EU won't accept the Chequers position. Barring a miracle we appear to be utterly, utterly screwed.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 16, 2018, 01:38:53 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on July 16, 2018, 10:55:28 AM

No deal may now be the most likely outcome. There doesn't seem to be a majority in parliament for any type of Brexit and the EU won't accept the Chequers position. Barring a miracle we appear to be utterly, utterly screwed.

Frankly my money was on an extension of negotiations and a 2nd referendum or new general elections...

But I"m perplexed by UK politics... May has ruled out a referendum and keeps her government afloat by giving in to the hardliners.
A hard Brexit seems therefore indeed increasingly likely....  ???

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on July 16, 2018, 03:51:15 PM
Quote from: Que on July 16, 2018, 01:38:53 PM
Frankly my money was on an extension of negotiations and a 2nd referendum or new general elections...

But I"m perplexed by UK politics... May has ruled out a referendum and keeps her government afloat by giving in to the hardliners.
A hard Brexit seems therefore indeed increasingly likely....  ???

Q

You're certainly not alone in being perplexed by UK politics!

The fundamental problem is that despite the fact that Brexit has already turned into an utter shitshow before we've even left - and will do so even further once the EU makes it clear that it won't accept the Chequers position - and despite the fact that the Brexiters' promises have evaporated on contact with reality, most leave voters are still convinced it's going to be great. You would think that the way it's going would give them pause for thought, but it hasn't. There was an article in the Guardian a few days ago which summed it up: a leave voter stated he believed Brexit would not cause damage, because, as he put it, "my faith is strong". That's what Brexit now seems to be - it's more like a fervent religious belief based on blind faith rather than a rationally thought through political position. The only reaction of such people to the ongoing farce is "just get on with it". They don't want to know about the details or complexities of Brexit, they just want to leave. If it's running into trouble it must be because the "metropolitan/liberal elite" or "remainer establishment" is trying to undermine it - it can't possibly be because Brexit itself is a really bloody stupid idea. They really are like a man who jumps off a cliff and says "so far so good!" because he hasn't hit the ground yet.

This should not really be too surprising: I said above that one of the most extraordinary things about the Brexiters is that they've spent years campaigning for the biggest political upheaval in Britain in living memory yet have never come up with a properly thought through, detailed plan explaining exactly how they think they can turn it into reality. That's no accident: they don't do detail, because if they did they would have to acknowledge the monumental problems and risks of Brexit. Coming up with a plan of their own would also mean they might be held accountable, and they have no intention of letting that happen. It's much easier to talk in empty platitudes and cry betrayal when someone else tries to come up with a workable plan for Brexit. If the leading Brexiters themselves don't do detail, accountability or responsibility, it's not that surprising that the same attitude is so prevalent among those taken in by their bullshit. Indeed, it seems merely asking them to produce a workable plan of their own is itself construed as an attempt to thwart Brexit by getting it bogged down in all that tiresome detail. The Irish border is the issue that sums it up - my experience is that they're not interested in it except insofar as it affects Brexit, and naturally  the problem must be Brussels using Ireland to hold us to ransom. It's definitely not because the Brexiters themselves never bothered to give it any thought. Oh no.

Until this situation changes, many politicians who can see what's coming when the ship hits the iceberg will continue to keep quiet for fear of being portrayed as "defying the will of the people", "saboteurs", "traitors", and so on. Even if we had a referendum tomorrow it's possible leave would win again, and even a remain win would be nowhere near convincing enough to settle the issue. Meanwhile millions of Brits are cheering on the iceberg.



Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on July 18, 2018, 05:21:18 AM
My belief is strong, your execution is weak. Shame on you, and damn the facts.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 01, 2018, 01:37:20 AM
More news from Brexit-Britain, where the implications of a no deal hard Brexit are the talk of the day:

Brexit: panic is the right thing to do (http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86947)

In his blog Richard North IMO quite rightly downplays the risk of immediate shortages of food and medicines.
Any imports into the UK won't be hindered by Brexit per se - the countries of the EU will be happy to continue to export their products to the UK. The problem lies much more in obstacles to export goods and services from the UK to the EU.

The real crisis is and will be one of political incompetence and paralysis, hence his conclusion that it is time to panic...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 01, 2018, 05:18:40 AM
The old rhetoric about Brexit leading us to the "sunlit uplands" has now been replaced by assurances that there will be "adequate food". Good to know.

Meanwhile our new foreign secretary seems to be on a mission to prove he can be as much of a cockwomble as his not so illustrious predecessor. His "strategy" has been to say to the EU "you'd better blink first because we won't", while asking France and Germany to tell that nasty Mr. Barnier not to be so mean to us and give us a nice cushy deal. Barnier and the Commission are too inflexible apparently. Perhaps one of Hunt's civil servants can point out to him that Barnier was given his negotiating mandate by the member states. You know, like France and Germany.

In other news:

https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1024220891897647104 (https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1024220891897647104) 

Yeah, fuck peace in Northern Ireland, we want our blue passports back. What a time to be alive.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 01, 2018, 09:54:28 AM
That the majority in the UK doesn't care about Northern Ireland anymore, is steadily becoming clear.

If the Irish Republic is smart, then after Brexit it will make the people of Northern Ireland an offer they can't refuse, and by international agreement they are entitled to a vote. Irish border problem solved...

Scotland might and the Chanel Islands will opt for (total) independence  (the latter can decide that unilaterally, without an referendum agreed by Westminster ). Gibraltar will probably compromise to save its skin, and agree to shared sovereignty with Spain.

Gina Miller, the advocate for parliamentary consent to the article 50 notice, has predicted a dismantling of the UK as a consequence of a hard Brexit. She might very well be right...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 01, 2018, 10:35:40 AM
Quote from: Que on August 01, 2018, 09:54:28 AM
That the majority in the UK doesn't care about Northern Ireland anymore, is steadily becoming clear.

If the Irish Republic is smart, then after Brexit it will make the people of Northern Ireland an offer they can't refuse, and by international agreement they are entitled to a vote. Irish border problem solved...

Scotland might and the Chanel Islands will opt for (total) independence  (the latter can decide that unilaterally, without an referendum agreed by Westminster ). Gibraltar will probably compromise to save its skin, and agree to shared sovereignty with Spain.

Gina Miller, the advocate for parliamentary consent to the article 50 notice, has predicted a dismantling of the UK as a consequence of a hard Brexit. She might very well be right...

Q

If Brexit turns out to be anything like as bad as it appears it's going to be, I'd certainly expect Scotland to vote for independence. In the 2014 referendum staying in the UK could be portrayed as the safer option, while independence was the leap in the dark. The latter might still be true, but it looks a lot more attractive if staying in the UK - and hence being stuck with a hard Brexit - looks certain to be a train wreck.

NI, not so sure. If you mean a united Ireland then it could happen, but the question arises of whether the Republic would want to join with NI. That's partly because NI is more heavily reliant on government spending than the rest of the UK, but also because you have to wonder if the Republic would want to take in a disgruntled minority led by the likes of Paisley Jr and the fragrant Arlene (especially given the Republic's liberal trajectory, which is in stark contrast to the more, er, "traditionalist" DUP).

Maybe if the arrangement were something short of a united Ireland then who knows. But any closer arrangement with the Republic, whether unification or something else, would mean some unionists abandoning their tribal loyalty, and in NI politics tribal loyalty is really tribal.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 01, 2018, 10:50:55 PM
Good points on NI...

It might get caught between a rock and a hard place....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 02, 2018, 02:56:29 AM
Quote from: Que on August 01, 2018, 10:50:55 PM
Good points on NI...

It might get caught between a rock and a hard place....

Q

Agreed.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 02, 2018, 07:26:06 AM
Quote from: Que on August 01, 2018, 09:54:28 AM
That the majority in the UK doesn't care about Northern Ireland anymore, is steadily becoming clear.

The one thing that would make them care is if bombs started going off on the mainland again. But yes, apart from that, zero shits given.


There are reports that Germany might be willing to offer the UK a "blind Brexit", i.e. a deliberately vague deal designed to defer key decisions until after we've legally left the EU. This would allow May to save face and avoid a no deal scenario.

German sources have apparently denied these reports, and I hope they are indeed false. If a blind Brexit were to happen it's not hard to see what the consequences would be: the "meaningful vote" in parliament would be rendered meaningless, because you can't vote on a deal which doesn't exist. That would make it harder for the opposition parties to oppose it than a deal whose contents are known - especially if it were portrayed as a pragmatic move to give us more time. In reality the opposite would probably be the case: as soon as we'd left, the Brexit ultras would oust May and replace her with one of their own, who could then be relied on to fill in the details of a blind Brexit in a way which the ERG approves of, and there would be nothing pragmatic about that. That would be a disaster for the UK, and I'm not sure the EU would want a country led by Rees Mogg and co on its doorstep either.

 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 02, 2018, 09:51:26 AM
I understand the attractions of a "Blind Brexit" for the Germans and the rest of the EU.
It buys the necessary time to prepare better for a hard Brexit, and create possibilities for (further) damage control.
It also creates an extra window of opportunity at the UK side to avoid a hard Brexit.

But it is also a gamble. As you quite rightly point out, it can also keep destructive elements in UK politics in power, whether hard Tory Brexiteers or Jeremy Corbyn.

Although, if I am cynical: the possible downside of that gamble is for the UK far greater than for the EU. We are in all probability heading for a hard Brexit anyway, was has the EU to lose by buying extra time? It could save billions in economic damage.
What does happen in that scenario however, is giving up hope for a concession from the UK on Northern Ireland now, and probably indefinitely.... Which means NI is screwed unless by some miracle a hard Brexit is avoided, which brings us back to our previous topic...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 02, 2018, 03:10:28 PM
Quote from: Que on August 02, 2018, 09:51:26 AM
But it is also a gamble. As you quite rightly point out, it can also keep destructive elements in UK politics in power, whether hard Tory Brexiteers or Jeremy Corbyn.

I wouldn't bracket the Tory Brexit ultras with Corbyn. I'd like Corbyn to be more pro-EU, but a government led by him would sign up to a customs union with the EU and would not seek to diverge much from single market regulations. He would also be willing to do what is needed to avoid a border in Ireland (and if that pissed off the DUP I think we can safely assume he wouldn't mind too much). 

A government led by the likes of Rees Mogg or Johnson on the other hand....well, that's something else. No customs union, huge divergence from single market rules and an ultra-Thatcherite race to the bottom economic model, which is exactly what the EU has said it doesn't want to happen. Oh yeah, and sod the Irish border - government policy would be "well we don't want a border, if there is one it will be down to Ireland and the EU". Yes, that's complete bollocks, but that's what these lunatics are saying. A government of Tory hard Brexiteers is the worst outcome by far, both for the UK and the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 02, 2018, 11:42:05 PM
Oh, there is definitely a huge difference between Corbyn and Tory hard brexiteers!! But not where it counts....  ::)

But Corbyn is clearly anti-EU (https://www.markpack.org.uk/153744/jeremy-corbyn-brexit/), and I highly doubt if a Labour government under his leadership would have been much improvement compared to May. Thought that remains speculation....
The belated customs union offer was symbolic, and as has been established in many analyses, doesn't cut it.

Corbyn's major issue with the internal market, are its competition rules - which are at its very core - and its rules for public procurement in particular. Why spend money of the British taxpayer with foreign companies? Well, to get the best value for your money, for instance.... He also doesn't seem to understand that such a position would rule out any public contracts for UK companies anywhere in the rest of the EU as well. International agreements are reciprocal, you can't have it both ways.
In the end you restrict free competition without any economic gains... sounds like a swell idea...

And he doesn't like free movement of persons (labour) either. And I have sympathy for resisting the import of cheap labour. But in the case of the UK this was its own doing and a case of too late now to turn back the clock...
I'm wondering whether he accepts the ECJ?
Actually, he might be against the internal market altogether.... hence the customs union idea.

In this sense Corbyn is as deluded as any other Leaver...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 03, 2018, 04:29:47 AM
Quote from: Que on August 02, 2018, 11:42:05 PM
Oh, there is definitely a huge difference between Corbyn and Tory hard brexiteers!! But not where it counts....  ::)

But Corbyn is clearly anti-EU (https://www.markpack.org.uk/153744/jeremy-corbyn-brexit/), and I highly doubt if a Labour government under his leadership would have been much improvement compared to May. Thought that remains speculation....
The belated customs union offer was symbolic, and as has been established in many analyses, doesn't cut it.

Corbyn's major issue with the internal market, are its competition rules - which are at its very core - and its rules for public procurement in particular. Why spend money of the British taxpayer with foreign companies? Well, to get the best value for your money, for instance.... He also doesn't seem to understand that such a position would rule out any public contracts for UK companies anywhere in the rest of the EU as well. International agreements are reciprocal, you can't have it both ways.
In the end you restrict free competition without any economic gains... sounds like a swell idea...

And he doesn't like free movement of persons (labour) either. And I have sympathy for resisting the import of cheap labour. But in the case of the UK this was its own doing and a case of too late now to turn back the clock...
I'm wondering whether he accepts the ECJ?
Actually, he might be against the internal market altogether.... hence the customs union idea.

In this sense Corbyn is as deluded as any other Leaver...

Q

He'd have to come off the fence he's currently sitting on if he were in power, though much of his 2017 manifesto could be implemented within existing EU rules. Nevertheless, it is indeed true that there would certainly be points of substantive disagreement between the EU and a Corbyn government. But the disagreements between the EU and an ERG government would be on another level, and the effect of that would be multiplied by the fact that the Tory Brexit ultras are motivated by an intense, visceral hatred of the EU which makes negotiations with them virtually impossible. They're still sometimes referred to as Eurosceptics but that isn't really correct - many of them are literally anti-European, as well as anti-European Union. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 04, 2018, 04:25:53 AM
As to Corbyn: he has a lot to answer for....
If Labour had a modern, centrist leader, the Tory govt might not have lasted this long.
By being who he is, and his tacit support of Brexit, he has already changed the course of history.

As to Brexit itself: it seems the option of another fudge/compromise on NI as a way to buy time by entering the fase of transition (to nowhere) is gathering momentum:

QuoteSo there are ominous signs that we could end up with a compromise on the Irish border, which forms part of the withdrawal agreement, and a very vague political declaration about the future UK-EU relationship, which puts off the crucial decisions on market access and customs until the implementation (or transitional) period lasting from next March to December 2020.

Such a minimalist deal might prevent a meltdown this Autumn that would bring May down. She might win over enough Tory MPs to secure Commons approval for such a threadbare deal, in order to "get Brexit over the line" next March, as Michael Gove urges. It would avoid a cliff edge exit. 

It would be a good deal for the EU, which would bank the UK's £40bn divorce payment – part of the withdrawal agreement. But it would be a bad deal for the British public. Again, Tory party management would trump the national interest. The UK will have very little leverage in the negotiations once it leaves the EU, and would have thrown away its trump card – the £40bn.  It might be money for nothing, since we would have little idea about our future trade links with the EU.

As the Tory peer and former Brexit minister George Bridges warned in January: "My fear is that we will get meaningless waffle in a political declaration...The implementation period will be not be a bridge to a clear destination; it will be a gangplank into thin air."

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-macron-brexit-chequers-eu-negotiations-a8476051.html

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 04, 2018, 07:06:35 AM
Quote from: Que on August 04, 2018, 04:25:53 AM
As to Corbyn: he has a lot to answer for....
If Labour had a modern, centrist leader, the Tory govt might not have lasted this long.
By being who he is, and his tacit support of Brexit, he has already changed the course of history.

If Labour had a "centrist" leader they'd still be as far behind the Tories in the polls as they were under Brown and Miliband, perhaps even further behind. It's the failures of Labour's self-styled "moderates" that caused the rise of Corbyn in the first place. They surrendered the intellectual arguments to the Tories, first by accepting the fundamentals of Thatcherite economics under Blair, then by accepting the austerity agenda and failing to challenge the myth that the crash was caused by Labour overspending. All of these could and should have been challenged, but they didn't do it, either because they didn't want to (Blair) or because they thought that it would backfire on them if they did (Miliband).

The calculation was that even if traditional Labour voters didn't like this drift ever further rightwards, they'd still vote Labour because they had nowhere else to go. It was a fatal mistake. First they were outflanked on the left by the SNP, which obliterated Labour in Scotland, one of the party's biggest power bases. But the drift to the right ultimately did them little good in England either. Even over the course of Blair's time they steadily lost support as their traditional voters, increasingly feeling ignored and taken for granted, stayed at home: they came to view New Labour and the Tories as two cheeks of the same arse. Those voters then became easy prey for UKIP, who did a good job of exploiting legitimate grievances and channelling that resentment into an anti-immigration sentiment - and by equating immigration with the EU, an anti-EU sentiment. By failing to challenge the nonsense that Labour spending too much on public services caused the crash, it turned out that, surprise surprise, they were blamed by much of the public for the crash: after all, if even Labour itself wasn't challenging this nonsense, then it must be true!

So it was that we ended up with a "moderate" Labour government extending the Thatcherite agenda of privatisation, "light touch" regulation on the financial sector - oh yes, and imposing a truly vicious new disability benefits system which was cynically designed to deprive as many vulnerable people as possible of the support they needed to keep their heads above water, and to hell with the human cost (which has proved to be dreadful). That the Tories were only too happy to support this and take it even further when they got back into power should tell you everything you need to know. When the Tories' austerity policies punished the victims of the crash instead of those that caused it, Labour's response was to agree. Oddly enough, "we'd implement austerity too, but we'd try not to look as though we relish it as much as the Tories" didn't prove to be wildly popular.

The 2015 leadership election perfectly encapsulated what had gone wrong. The Tories had fought that year's general election on a manifesto which included a pledge of benefit cuts which were even more vindictive and regressive. They never thought they'd have to implement it as Cameron expected another hung parliament. Then he won a small majority and had to do it. Corbyn opposed the cuts unequivocally. The three "centrist" candidates wrung their hands instead. For many former Labour voters that confirmed just how badly the party had lost its way, and even for many who hadn't yet abandoned Labour, that was the last straw. Result: Corbyn won by a landslide.

The reaction of the "moderates" to Corbyn's rise has been very telling. From day one they've been happy to go running to the media (the Tory press included) to slag him off. But ask them to come up with a set of policies which could win back former Labour voters and it all goes a bit quiet. Despite having had control of the party for 13 years in government, then five more years in opposition under Miliband, Corbyn's rise appears to have prompted little or no critical self-reflection from the "moderates". No willingness to analyse where they went wrong or their consequent role in Corbyn winning the leadership, little effort at revitalising their moribund intellectual position, nothing. Corbyn's 2017 manifesto, while unremarkable social democracy by European standards, was certainly the most left wing Labour manifesto for a long time, and the centrists were horrified by it. They seemed to be even more horrified when it proved to be the turning point in the campaign because it was - shock, horror - popular. How could this be? This is precisely the sort of left wing nonsense which would guarantee Labour's electoral annihiliation - except it didn't happen. They still don't seem to understand why, or even want to understand why. Until they do they'll get nowhere.       



QuoteAs to Brexit itself: it seems the option of another fudge/compromise on NI as a way to buy time by entering the fase of transition (to nowhere) is gathering momentum:

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-macron-brexit-chequers-eu-negotiations-a8476051.html

Q

If they go for that it means no meaningful vote in parliament. It also means that after we leave some ERG-approved shitgibbon can fill in the details to give us the most deranged outcome possible. Is the EU really willing to have a country run by these maniacs on its doorstep?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 04, 2018, 11:44:03 PM
I'm not going into your comments on Labour, my knowledge on UK politics is too limted for that. But I've read your insights with much interest.  :)
I do get the impression that the first-past-the-post systems creates undesirable political dynamics.
In tbe Dutch system the major centrist parties, like the social democrats, are flanked by smaller parties to keep them on their toes.

Quote from: Mr. Minnow on August 04, 2018, 07:06:35 AM
If they go for that it means no meaningful vote in parliament. It also means that after we leave some ERG-approved shitgibbon can fill in the details to give us the most deranged outcome possible. Is the EU really willing to have a country run by these maniacs on its doorstep?

There wouldn't be a deal to vote on, apart from the divorce agreement.....

The problem is that there are not that many other options left besides a hard Brexit.
Concluding a trade deal within the deadline of two years was always doubtful, but seems impossible by now. Unless the UK suddenly goes for the Norway/EEA option, but even then. The UK could retract the article 50 notice and abandon Brexit altogether. Or it could ask for an extension, wich - I think - would only be agreed to by the EU in case of a 2nd referendum or a general election.

A hard Brexit now, not only has economic downsides to the EU, but political ones as well. The EU could be seen as pushing the UK off the cliff to punish it, or worse, to force a change in domestic politics. There would be a lot of serious damage that cannot be undone.

A "Blind Brexit" would at least keep the relationship between the EU and the UK afloat, in hope of better times.
Off course, a 2nd referendum or a parliamentary vote to force May's hand, would be a game changer. But either seems unlikely at the moment.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 05, 2018, 03:07:13 AM
Quote from: Que on August 04, 2018, 11:44:03 PM
I'm not going into your comments on Labour, my knowledge on UK politics is too limted for that. But I've read your insights with much interest.  :)
I do get the impression that the first-past-the-post systems creates undesirable political dynamics.
In tbe Dutch system the major centrist parties, like the social democrats, are flanked by smaller parties to keep them on their toes.

You're right about FPTP, it's now a clearly dysfunctional system. It means that the two main parties are coalitions in all but name. In the Tory party you have staunchly pro-EU people like Ken Clarke on the one hand, and on the other hand Brexit ultras like Rees Mogg. The old "one nation" Tories, who were largely in favour of the post-war consensus, have been pretty thin on the ground since Thatcher, but there are probably a few still around. There are few countries on the continent in which all these people would be in the same party.

It's a similar story with Labour. Blair and Corbyn would never be in the same party in most European countries, and I've heard several prominent Blairite commentators say they'd rather have a Tory government led by someone like Cameron than a left wing Labour government.

The other effect of FPTP is that it effectively disenfranchises millions of voters, because elections are decided by floating voters in marginal seats, even though they make up only a tiny sliver of the electorate. That was one factor in the Brexit referendum: all votes were equal in their impact on the result, so many people voted in the referendum who saw no point in voting in Westminster elections, which have often produced a House of Commons which was nowhere near an accurate reflection of how people voted.

It's also very hard for smaller parties to make an impact under FPTP, so it reinforces the system of two main parties. The supposed justification for this system is that FPTP guarantees government which is strong and stable (to coin a phrase) - in other words, governments with majorities big enough to get their legislation passed. Indeed, governments with big majorities can do more or less what they like without bothering to listen to dissent even on their own side. But even that argument has worn thin, with two of the last three elections producing hung parliaments and the other only a small majority for the Tories. There are also fewer marginal seats than there used to be, so hung parliaments or precariously small majorities appear set to be the norm for the foreseeable future. If anything good could come out of Brexit it would be to strain the two party system past breaking point and well and truly blow it up. I'm not holding my breath though.   


QuoteThere wouldn't be a deal to vote on, apart from the divorce agreement.....

The problem is that there are not that many other options left besides a hard Brexit.
Concluding a trade deal within the deadline of two years was always doubtful, but seems impossible by now. Unless the UK suddenly goes for the Norway/EEA option, but even then. The UK could retract the article 50 notice and abandon Brexit altogether. Or it could ask for an extension, wich - I think - would only be agreed to by the EU in case of a 2nd referendum or a general election.

A hard Brexit now, not only has economic downsides to the EU, but political ones as well. The EU could be seen as pushing the UK off the cliff to punish it, or worse, to force a change in domestic politics. There would be a lot of serious damage that cannot be undone.

A "Blind Brexit" would at least keep the relationship between the EU and the UK afloat, in hope of better times.
Off course, a 2nd referendum or a parliamentary vote to force May's hand, would be a game changer. But either seems unlikely at the moment.

Q

Of the options you mention, a blind Brexit may be the most likely, simply because it allows us to avoid a no deal scenario - at least for the time being. The big issues can be deferred to the transition period, though it seems likely that we might still be faced with the distinct possibility of no deal when that period runs out. There's also the risk, as I said before, that once we're legally out at the end of March, May is ousted and replaced by the likes of Johnson or Rees Mogg. If that happens, no deal would be highly likely - zealots, by definition, are people who don't compromise on their ideological purity. If a blind Brexit gives us a government like that it will be a disaster for us, and not great for the EU either.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 05, 2018, 03:33:13 AM
A few days ago the governor of the Bank of England was accused by the Brexiters of indulging in "Project Fear" when he described the chance of no deal as "uncomfortably high". Liam Fox has now said it's the most likely outcome. So presumably they'll be accusing him of "Project Fear" as well. Or perhaps not.

EDIT: here's the article:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/05/liam-fox-says-no-deal-brexit-now-more-likely-than-an-agreement (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/05/liam-fox-says-no-deal-brexit-now-more-likely-than-an-agreement)

You have to admire the sheer cheek of this bit:

QuoteFox said: "It's up to the EU27 to determine whether they want the EU commission's ideological purity to be maintained at the expense of their real economies."

That's a hardline Brexiter accusing the EU of putting ideological purity before economic benefits. Self-awareness is clearly not Fox's strong point.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 07, 2018, 11:02:23 PM
"Brexiternity": a never ending Brexit to nowhere...

Recommended reading:

Two false Brexit choices for Britain

Neither a no-deal Brexit nor a second referendum will solve the UK's EU quandary
(https://www.politico.eu/article/two-false-choices-for-britain/)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 08, 2018, 03:29:37 PM
Quote from: Que on August 07, 2018, 11:02:23 PM
"Brexiternity": a never ending Brexit to nowhere...

Not so! Jacob Rees Mogg has assured us that we should know the full economic impact of Brexit in about 50 years.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 11, 2018, 11:17:25 PM
As we (in the UK) slide towards the 'No Deal' abyss the danger is that the government will ask for emergency powers and our democracy will be eroded, which I find very worrying.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: NikF on August 11, 2018, 11:26:44 PM
I have dual citizenship and so if the worst comes to the worst I'm moving across the water and next door to aligreto. He doesn't know this yet.  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: XB-70 Valkyrie on August 11, 2018, 11:57:32 PM
Will have mine soon too and the three of us can form a commune!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: NikF on August 12, 2018, 12:07:52 AM
Sounds cool to me.  8) Let's not tell him - we'll just turn up unannounced.  :laugh:
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: XB-70 Valkyrie on August 12, 2018, 12:18:54 AM
I have first dibs on his garden shed until my wife and I can find a place to live!  8)

Seriously, I had the pleasure of meeting Aligreto last year when we were in Ireland, and I'm sure he would make a great neighbor!

When we were on a bus from Dublin to Glendalough, there was a teenage Irish kid marveling at this one huge mansion: "WOW, that place is huge!! It is gorgeous! It must cost five hundred thousand Euros!!!"

Kid, in SoCal $500K will not buy you a one-square-foot shed to store a piece of rubber dogschit.

We are seriously considering it for retirement, although we may just end up on the West coast--Ennis or Kenmare, if that's not too impractical.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 12, 2018, 03:14:46 AM
Quote from: XB-70 Valkyrie on August 12, 2018, 12:18:54 AM
I have first dibs on his garden shed until my wife and I can find a place to live!  8)

Seriously, I had the pleasure of meeting Aligreto last year when we were in Ireland, and I'm sure he would make a great neighbor!

When we were on a bus from Dublin to Glendalough, there was a teenage Irish kid marveling at this one huge mansion: "WOW, that place is huge!! It is gorgeous! It must cost five hundred thousand Euros!!!"

Kid, in SoCal $500K will not buy you a one-square-foot shed to store a piece of rubber dogschit.

We are seriously considering it for retirement, although we may just end up on the West coast--Ennis or Kenmare, if that's not too impractical.
In Kemare you could visit the pier from which Moeran fell into the water to his death.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: ritter on August 12, 2018, 04:06:37 AM
But we should advise XB-70 Valkyrie to be more careful than Moeran when on that pier... :D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 12, 2018, 04:53:12 PM
Quote from: vandermolen on August 11, 2018, 11:17:25 PM
As we (in the UK) slide towards the 'No Deal' abyss the danger is that the government will ask for emergency powers and our democracy will be eroded, which I find very worrying.

I think it's already been eroded. We don't yet know the full extent of the Leave campaign's links with Cambridge Analytica or Arron Banks' Russian connections, but we do know that the Leave campaign has been found guilty of breaking electoral law by the Electoral Commission - yet neither the government nor the Brexit-supporting press gives a toss. So they will get away with cheating and we'll still leave, despite the huge question mark over the integrity of the result. Perhaps the most novel argument in defence of this attitude is that "you can't prove that the cheating affected the result". So if you sit an exam, cheat, and get an A grade, don't worry if you get caught - just point out that no-one can prove that your cheating made any difference to your grade. In fact, be sure to state that you're 100% confident that even if you hadn't cheated you'd still have done just as well. According to Brexiter logic, this is a watertight defence.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: XB-70 Valkyrie on August 12, 2018, 04:54:38 PM
Quote from: vandermolen on August 12, 2018, 03:14:46 AM
In Kemare you could visit the pier from which Moeran fell into the water to his death.

Did not know about that, but we did see the Kenmare stone circle and ate at the restaurant Tom Crean's granddaughter owns--some of the best seafood we've ever had!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 13, 2018, 02:57:54 AM
Quote from: XB-70 Valkyrie on August 12, 2018, 04:54:38 PM
Did not know about that, but we did see the Kenmare stone circle and ate at the restaurant Tom Crean's granddaughter owns--some of the best seafood we've ever had!

Tom Crean, another great hero of mine - how exciting. Did you meet his granddaughter?

Some debate if Moeran had a heart attack and fell into the river or was drunk or possibly both.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 13, 2018, 02:59:20 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on August 12, 2018, 04:53:12 PM
I think it's already been eroded. We don't yet know the full extent of the Leave campaign's links with Cambridge Analytica or Arron Banks' Russian connections, but we do know that the Leave campaign has been found guilty of breaking electoral law by the Electoral Commission - yet neither the government nor the Brexit-supporting press gives a toss. So they will get away with cheating and we'll still leave, despite the huge question mark over the integrity of the result. Perhaps the most novel argument in defence of this attitude is that "you can't prove that the cheating affected the result". So if you sit an exam, cheat, and get an A grade, don't worry if you get caught - just point out that no-one can prove that your cheating made any difference to your grade. In fact, be sure to state that you're 100% confident that even if you hadn't cheated you'd still have done just as well. According to Brexiter logic, this is a watertight defence.

Sadly what you say is very true.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on August 13, 2018, 05:23:11 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on August 12, 2018, 03:14:46 AM
In Kenmare you could visit the pier from which Moeran fell into the water to his death.
Saw the pier back in 1992, wish I'd known about Moeran then.  ???
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 13, 2018, 10:07:23 AM
It seems that May is well on course to Brexiternity....


May Weighs Brexit Fix that Keeps EU Rules for Longer (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-13/may-is-said-to-weigh-brexit-fix-that-keeps-eu-rules-for-longer) (Bloomberg)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: XB-70 Valkyrie on August 13, 2018, 11:31:10 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on August 13, 2018, 02:57:54 AM
Tom Crean, another great hero of mine - how exciting. Did you meet his granddaughter?

Some debate if Moeran had a heart attack and fell into the river or was drunk or possibly both.

We did not meet his granddaughter, but I will tell you the food was outstanding, like most of the food we had in Ireland. But this restaurant in particular was amazing. My wife said the oysters were the best she's ever had. After seeing the Kenmare Stone Circle, I ordered the scallops, and I received them arranged on my plate in pretty much the same pattern. The restaurant has a large image of Tom--not sure whether it was projected or an LED screen--we never got that close to it. I joked to my wife that I wasn't sure whether we needed to genuflect!

There is also a Tom Crean Beer, which we found only in the west and enjoyed several times along with our Guinness, Smithwick's, and Paddy (whisky).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 14, 2018, 10:26:46 PM
A striking analysis from Germany (Deutsche Welle):

QuoteBrexit has reached a dead end

Brexit is on the negotiating table yet again in Brussels. With no alternative in sight, the UK is staggering aimlessly toward the day it will ultimately leave the European Union, says Bernd Riegert, DW's correspondent in Brussels.

The UK's Brexit negotiations with the European Union are at an impasse — that's according to Prime Minister Theresa May. In a letter to her own divided Conservative party, she admits that, surrounded by red lines she is not allowed to cross, she can neither push ahead nor turn back. Brexit can't be too soft or too hard, or else the various parties and the EU will be unable to reach an agreement.

Brussels has rejected May's latest proposal, which would have meant negotiating a kind of free trade area only for goods. Just 11 percent of UK citizens liked that plan, according to opinion polls. Negotiations resume in Brussels this week. However, the teams accompanying EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK's Brexit minister, Dominic Raab, wonder what they will be negotiating.

There are no viable proposals either on trade issues or the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. The British government is set on a vague statement about its future relationship with the EU. However, Brussels is insisting on a concrete exit treaty that would at least finalize essential questions regarding finances, borders and civil rights. It is clear that time is getting short. A Brexit deal is supposed to be in place by the end of October. That is tight.

Up until now, the British have negotiated by playing dead and only coming up with something substantial and concrete at the very last moment, but that is not likely to work this time around. May's attempt to split the EU with charm offensives in Paris and Berlin has failed. The UK's negotiating position is growing weaker by the day. The EU has much less to lose than the British. On the homefront, May has been stirring up panic, stockpiling food and medicine in the case of a "no deal" Brexit and pushing the idea that the EU is to blame for everything because of its inflexibility.

The basic problem is that Brexit, which was pushed by a dishonest referendum campaign, has practically no advantages for the UK, neither concerning trade nor migration. To the contrary, British employers are already complaining that too few EU foreigners want to work in the country. Brexit is scaring them off.

The opposition? Keeping mum
The Remain camp is desperately fighting for a second referendum to stop Brexit. That will not happen, at least not under May, who has categorically ruled it out. Whether the prime minister can survive party infighting and hold her own beyond the autumn, when a Brexit deal supposed to have been reached, is doubtful. On the other hand, no one really wants her nearly impossible job.

Boris Johnson, that Brexit pioneer and political clown, has vanished. Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn has not seized the moment, and his Labour party leadership tenure has been under assault for supporting the plight of the Palestinians. In any case, Corbyn has not yet presented his own Brexit concept.

What now? Without a concept, Britain continues to stagger aimlessly toward Brexit day.  At the moment, there is little hope that anyone will pull the emergency brake and at least postpone the unfortunate event.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 15, 2018, 01:56:42 AM
Quote from: XB-70 Valkyrie on August 13, 2018, 11:31:10 AM
We did not meet his granddaughter, but I will tell you the food was outstanding, like most of the food we had in Ireland. But this restaurant in particular was amazing. My wife said the oysters were the best she's ever had. After seeing the Kenmare Stone Circle, I ordered the scallops, and I received them arranged on my plate in pretty much the same pattern. The restaurant has a large image of Tom--not sure whether it was projected or an LED screen--we never got that close to it. I joked to my wife that I wasn't sure whether we needed to genuflect!

There is also a Tom Crean Beer, which we found only in the west and enjoyed several times along with our Guinness, Smithwick's, and Paddy (whisky).
How interesting! I'd love to go there myself one day. Thanks.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 15, 2018, 09:16:50 AM
Quote from: Que on August 14, 2018, 10:26:46 PM
A striking analysis from Germany (Deutsche Welle):

QuoteThe British government is set on a vague statement about its future relationship with the EU. However, Brussels is insisting on a concrete exit treaty that would at least finalize essential questions regarding finances, borders and civil rights.

I hope this is true, because there's no way our shambolic government should be allowed to get away with yet another fudge. It's ridiculous that they've been allowed to kick the can down the road this far because of their total inability to come up with a workable plan to serve as the basis for a negotiating position. The Chequers plan is pretty much dead already.

Equally infuriating is the extent to which the Brexit-supporting press has given the government so much cover for their clueless handling of the Brexit process. If we had a press which did what it's supposed to do in a democracy, i.e. hold the government to account, they'd never be allowed to get away with the line that "it's all the EU's fault", and every cry of "betrayal!" from the Brexit ultras would be met with a demand that they produce a detailed, workable plan of their own. Unsurprisingly, no such plan has been produced or demanded.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 18, 2018, 04:19:48 PM
Would you believe it - it seems that Bertie Wooster and his chums are finally about to publish a Brexit plan of their own:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/17/the-guardian-view-on-brexit-and-trade-the-wto-is-not-a-safety-net (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/17/the-guardian-view-on-brexit-and-trade-the-wto-is-not-a-safety-net)

Unfortunately it's taken them until there's bugger all time left to get a deal done, but still, better late than never. And what a plan it is - apparently even if we crash out with no deal, WTO rules will be just fine. So that's our trade and economic arrangements sorted. But what of the Irish border? Well:

QuoteNext month, hardliners of the European Research Group, chaired by Jacob Rees-Mogg, are due to publish a Brexit plan to rival the "Chequers" blueprint that the prime minister is trying to sell to her party and EU capitals (without great success). One difference between the two camps is that the ERG ascribes no great value to membership of the single market. Another is that it sees no need to honour commitments already made regarding an invisible Irish border. Dispensing with the burden of those obligations allows Brexiters to propose trade arrangements like those between the EU and Canada, or no trade agreement at all.

So, sod the Good Friday Agreement then. Marvellous.

This article is similarly reassuring:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/18/founder-superdry-donates-1-million-pounds-peoples-vote-brexit-deal (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/18/founder-superdry-donates-1-million-pounds-peoples-vote-brexit-deal)

QuoteSome senior ministers fear that there is no Commons majority for Theresa May's proposed Brexit deal, unveiled to her ministers at a meeting at her Chequers retreat earlier this summer and resulting in the resignations of the Brexit secretary David Davis and Boris Johnson. Many MPs and donors are expecting Johnson, the former foreign secretary, to make a pitch for the leadership, while hard Brexiters are drawing up their own preferred Brexit deal.

"We are on the road to misery," said one senior minister. "[Hard Brexiters] will kill all but 'no deal'. The Commons won't vote for that – ministers won't – so it will all collapse. It could be truly dreadful."

Sunlit uplands here we come!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 18, 2018, 04:36:22 PM
https://www.youtube.com/v/svwslRDTyzU
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 19, 2018, 12:48:38 AM
Two academics from Princeton University on the motives behind the Brexit vote:

Brexit is a consequence of low upward mobility (https://www.opendemocracy.net/can-europe-make-it/ashoka-mody-rachel-lurie/brexit-is-consequence-of-low-upward-mobility)

To me it seems that the Leave vote, like the rise of Trump, was the result of an unholy coalition of a large group of socially disenfranchised, left behind in modern society and left out of modern economy, and a very vocal group of upper middle class conservatives who engineered the whole situation with harsh neoliberal policies and frankly don't give a shit about anyone or anything but themselves.

Luckily in continental Europe neoliberalism in its "purest" form never really caught on...
Though on the continent there are presently other, more "classic" but equally dangerous threats to democracy.

And not far ahead are times of major global economic and geopolitical instability. Fasten your seatbelts.... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 22, 2018, 10:38:05 PM
The mind boggling aspect of Brexit is that even 2 years after the referendum, nobody has a clue what is going to happen...

Want to play a simulation game?  ;) (Bloomberg)

Brexit is tricky. The U.K.'s prime minister, Theresa May, is giving it her best shot, but could you do better? Perhaps the answer is a new prime minister, or a tougher approach to the EU. Here's your chance to play through the options as many times as you like and see if you can plot a path to the Brexit of your dreams, be it hard or soft, or perhaps stop it altogether ...

Pick Your Own Brexit (https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-pick-your-own-brexit/).

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 25, 2018, 12:38:31 AM
Newest political wisdom in Westminster: anyone that points out any negative consequence of a no-deal Brexit, is a liar.
Even if it is the Chancellor of the Exchequer:

Tory infighting erupts after Hammond's no-deal Brexit comments spark anger among Eurosceptics in party
(https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/philip-hammond-no-deal-brexit-conservative-tory-party-rees-mogg-eurosceptic-a8505991.html)


Meanwhile..... in the real world (fin. times):

The World Trade Organization has warned about potential disruption for the UK from a no-deal Brexit, saying that it is "very unlikely" that the government will have agreed tariffs and quotas with all other member countries by next March.

Hardline Brexiters have pointed to the WTO as a safety net that would allow trade to continue, with additional barriers, even if Britain left the EU without a deal.

But Roberto Azevêdo, the head of the WTO, said on Friday that other countries would look to take advantage of the UK's position, complicating or preventing agreement on some points. "The moment that other countries begin to sense an opportunity to increase the market share or increase the quota here or there, they're going to go for that. There will be a lot of uncertainty here, there will be a lot of unpredictability," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme. "It is very unlikely that you're going to have 100 per cent agreed outcome for all WTO members between now and March."

Mr Azevêdo's comments are a notably candid assessment of the legal obstacles facing the UK. The UK's Department for International Trade said in response that it was looking to simply facilitate talks by "replicat[ing] as far as possible our current obligations". "We have already started the formal process of agreeing the schedules with WTO members. It can be completed within three months. But it is not uncommon for it to take longer and for members to trade under unagreed schedules for periods of time while concerns about commitments are ironed out," the department said.

A UK government technical notice published on Thursday said that, in the event of a no-deal Brexit, "trade with the EU will be on non-preferential, World Trade Organization terms", but did not address what would happen if there was no agreement with other WTO members.

The British government has said that a no-deal Brexit is unlikely, although Liam Fox, the international trade secretary in charge of negotiating with the WTO, has said it is a 60 per cent probability. David Lidington, the Cabinet Office minister, said on Friday that negotiations with the EU could continue into November — echoing a statement made this week by Michel Barnier, the lead EU negotiator.

In a no deal scenario, Mr Azevêdo made clear that the EU could not exempt the UK from tariffs. "The EU cannot discriminate among the WTO members . . . The other members pay tariffs, so the UK will have to pay tariffs as well," he said. Under the same WTO rules, Britain could impose zero tariffs on some goods — as proposed by some Brexiters — but it would have to do so for all WTO members.

Overall Mr Azevêdo, a former Brazilian trade negotiator, said of a no-deal Brexit: "There will be an impact — it may be larger or smaller depending on the sector . . . It's not going to be the end of the world . . . but it's not going to be a walk in the park either."

The WTO could also object to Britain's proposed border system with the EU, the so-called facilitated customs arrangements. UK trade secretary Mr Fox said last month that: "There is no way with a system that has never been tested before to know whether the WTO will regard it as compliant."
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 25, 2018, 04:42:53 AM
Quote from: Que on August 25, 2018, 12:38:31 AM
Newest political wisdom in Westminster: anyone that points out any negative consequence of a no-deal Brexit, is a liar.

The Brexit headbangers screech "Project Fear!" in response to any inconvenient truth in much the same way that Trump says "fake news!" to anything he doesn't like. Even the recent warning from the Royal Pharmaceutical Society about the availability of medicines in a no deal scenario was dismissed by renowned medical expert Nigel Farage as evidence that the RPS is part of the great anti-Brexit conspiracy.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on August 25, 2018, 04:57:28 AM
Quote from: Que on August 25, 2018, 12:38:31 AM
Mr Azevêdo, a former Brazilian trade negotiator, said of a no-deal Brexit: "There will be an impact — it may be larger or smaller depending on the sector . . . It's not going to be the end of the world . . . but it's not going to be a walk in the park either."

Well, sometimes (always?) outsiders have a more nuanced and balanced perspective than the insiders. I think he's spot on but I'd put in the reverse order: "It's not going to be a walk in the park... but it's not going to be the end of the world either."

Plus: do anyone of you, gentlemen, trust Juncker more than May, or think the former is more honest and competent than the latter? I certainly don't.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 25, 2018, 05:09:45 AM
Quote from: Florestan on August 25, 2018, 04:57:28 AM
Well, sometimes (always?) outsiders have a more nuanced and balanced perspective than the insiders. I think he's spot on but I'd put in the reverse order: "It's not going to be a walk in the park... but it's not going to be the end of the world either."

That is nuanced. It means that loosing the economic advantages you had, doesn't mean your economy is going to collapse.
But it's going to cost both the UK and other countries a lot of money, we are talking billions.... For what??   ???

QuotePlus: do anyone of you, gentlemen, trust Juncker more than May, or think the former is more honest and competent than the latter? I certainly don't.

How is the answer to the question who of these is more competent and trustworthy as a person, relevant to the rationale behind Brexit or its course?

Is chancellor Hammond more competent and trustworthy than May? Are Barnier and Tusk more competent and trustworthy than Juncker? (I believe so...)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on August 25, 2018, 05:25:02 AM
Quote from: Que on August 25, 2018, 05:09:45 AM
That is nuanced. It means that loosing the economic advantages you had, doesn't mean your economy is going to collapse.
But it's going to cost both the UK and other countries a lot of money, we are talking billions....

Certainly.

Quote
For what??   ???
[/quote]

Well, people have willingly fought and died over issues more foolish than Brexit. At least the latter will not be that bloody.

Quote
How is the answer to the question who of these is more competent and trustworthy as a person, relevant to the rationale behind Brexit or its course?

Both May and Juncker try to manage a situation not of their own making, but at least Theresa May was never seen drunk in public nor did she sang the praises of Karl Marx.  ;D

EDIT: You substituted "I believe so" for "I hope so". Telling...  :laugh:
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 25, 2018, 08:23:02 AM
Quote from: Florestan on August 25, 2018, 05:25:02 AM
Both May and Juncker try to manage a situation not of their own making, but at least Theresa May was never seen drunk in public nor did she sang the praises of Karl Marx.  ;D

True. But at least Juncker is upfront about his sentiments, unlike  May as a "converted" Brexiteer.
Still not sure what this tells us about Brexit, in which Juncker is not a very influential figure.

QuoteEDIT: You substituted "I believe so" for "I hope so". Telling...  :laugh:

It would... if it were true.  8) I changed the sentence, but "hope" was never there...
How appropriate in a Brexit discussion...  ;)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 26, 2018, 05:38:11 PM
Quote from: Que on August 25, 2018, 08:23:02 AM
but "hope" was never there...
How appropriate in a Brexit discussion...  ;)

Q

Many a true word spoken in jest....



Terrific news - the Irish border problem has been solved!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/26/have-people-inspected-at-irish-border-after-brexit-says-jacob-rees-mogg (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/26/have-people-inspected-at-irish-border-after-brexit-says-jacob-rees-mogg)

Try as I might, I cannot think of a single solitary way in which this could be anything other than a fantastic success.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 26, 2018, 10:26:06 PM
I expect a hardening of the Irish position on the NI border , perhaps that is what Rees-Mogg is playing for?  ::)
Which means there not going to be a transitional agreement without a UK guarantee on a soft border.

Since both the DUP and hard Brexiteers will prevent May from making a concession on that, I have lost hope for a "blind Brexit" (a transitional deal without a trade deal). Though there still might be a small chance of a Chequers type fudge agreed between May and the EU. But that would lead to a Tory rebellion. Still, this might be what both May and Barnier will try to aim for....

Chances of a 2nd referendum seem to get slimmer, and it doesn't make much sense anymore since there still doesn't seem to be an overwhelming majority to stop Brexit altogether....

Not many alternatives left for a hard Brexit, except one: general elections in the UK would be a reason for the EU to extend the deadline for the negotiations... Plus a general election could provide a necessary realignment of UK politics and an opportunity to properly revisit the debat on Brexit.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 27, 2018, 05:44:26 AM
Quote from: Que on August 26, 2018, 10:26:06 PM
I expect a hardening of the Irish position on the NI border , perhaps that is what Rees-Mogg is playing for?  ::)
Which means there not going to be a transitional agreement without a UK guarantee on a soft border.

Since both the DUP and hard Brexiteers will prevent May from making a concession on that, I have lost hope for a "blind Brexit" (a transitional deal without a trade deal). Though there still might be a small chance of a Chequers type fudge agreed between May and the EU. But that would lead to a Tory rebellion. Still, this might be what both May and Barnier will try to aim for....

Chances of a 2nd referendum seem to get slimmer, and it doesn't make much sense anymore since there still doesn't seem to be an overwhelming majority to stop Brexit altogether....

Not many alternatives left for a hard Brexit, except one: general elections in the UK would be a reason for the EU to extend the deadline for the negotiations... Plus a general election could provide a necessary realignment of UK politics and an opportunity to properly revisit the debat on Brexit.

Q

I really hope the EU doesn't agree to a blind Brexit. It would be a farce - a mostly blank piece of paper with a promise that "we'll fill in the gaps when/if we can think of something workable." That would mean yet more fudge and delay on top of the two years of incompetence we've already had, with both main parties stumbling along trying to put sticking plasters over their internal divisions. As things stand the deadline for a deal to be reached is October or possibly early November, and we need to have a clearer idea of what Brexit will look like by then: only when we have that is there any chance of the polls starting to shift. The sooner the crunch point comes the better. That's when any realignment of British politics is likely to start, if it happens at all. Carrying on with the present paralysis isn't going to do the country any good at all, not least because Brexit is crowding out serious domestic issues which need and deserve attention.

The major obstacle to another referendum is that legislation would have to be passed to make it happen and there's not much time left for that to be done. Maybe the EU would extend the Article 50 deadline if parliament voted for it, who knows. I think the most likely way a referendum on the final deal happens is if Labour comes out in favour of it because of a deadlocked parliament. They aren't ruling that out, and there would probably be enough Tories who would back it to make it happen.

After the lull of the summer recess it feels like we're sitting on a political powder keg which is going to go off before too much longer. There is a serious possibility of a split in both main parties, a disastrous Brexit deal/no deal may well drive up support for a second independence referendum in Scotland - which could well result in a yes vote - and there may well be serious anger among remain voters at the likely effects of a Brexit deal/no deal they never voted for, and among leave voters when they realise they aren't going to get the have our cake and eat it Brexit they were promised. Whatever happens, it's not going to be pretty.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 30, 2018, 09:50:39 PM
Just imagine: a complete new series of "Yes, Minster"..... on Brexit... Awesome!  :D

Only this time HM most loyal servants do not seem able to save the country from itself and its stupid politicians.....  ::)

Four in five civil service specialists dissatisfied with handling of Brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/30/civil-service-specialists-dissatisfied-with-uk-handling-of-brexit)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 30, 2018, 10:19:46 PM
The EU is prepared to offer a post-Brexit deal with the U.K. that is unlike anything it has struck with any country outside the bloc, chief negotiator Michel Barnier said Wednesday, leading to a 0.8 percent jump in the value of sterling against the dollar.

"We are prepared to offer Britain a partnership such as there never has been with any other third country," Barnier told reporters in Berlin, following a meeting with German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, Reuters reported.

"We respect Britain's red lines scrupulously. In return, they must respect what we are," he said. "Single market means single market ... There is no single market à la carte."



So...The EU is going to put out one final offer on the table....

Like everyone following Brexit, I'm curious what it will be. Best would be a single market proposal ("Norway") with extra privileges. This would be in line with Macron's wish to keep ties as close as possible.

But considering the reference to the UK's "red lines", it is more likely to be a customs' union dressed up with extra cooperation mechanisms and possibly additional privileges for the UK.... for a price, naturally....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 01, 2018, 11:50:25 PM
An Irish commentary with some very interesting insights:

Brexit: Entering the final phase (https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2018/0901/990836-brexit/)

The takeaway:
1. Top priority for the EU is an exit deal, which will avoid a cliff edge for now and will tie up various legal matters involving the exit (like citizens' rights).
2. Barnier is therefore focused on achieving a compromise on the biggest stumbling block: the Northern Irish border.
3. The attempt of some member states (Poland) to sacrifice the Irish issue, backfired and firmly closed the ranks in support of Ireland. Germany and France are in agreement on this.
4. The upbeat talk of an "unprecedented trade deal" is to lure the UK into concluding the exit deal and provide a (last minute) opportunity for May to save face. There will be a joint non-binding declaration about the "sun lit lands" promised by the Brexiteers, but the EU will know that it will never happen.

All of this will amount to a blind Brexit.
If the UK doesn't take the bait: behind the scenes preparations for a no deal situation are in full swing in Brussels.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 03, 2018, 03:55:40 PM
Quote from: Que on August 30, 2018, 10:19:46 PM
The EU is prepared to offer a post-Brexit deal with the U.K. that is unlike anything it has struck with any country outside the bloc, chief negotiator Michel Barnier said Wednesday, leading to a 0.8 percent jump in the value of sterling against the dollar.

"We are prepared to offer Britain a partnership such as there never has been with any other third country," Barnier told reporters in Berlin, following a meeting with German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, Reuters reported.

"We respect Britain's red lines scrupulously. In return, they must respect what we are," he said. "Single market means single market ... There is no single market à la carte."



So...The EU is going to put out one final offer on the table....

Like everyone following Brexit, I'm curious what it will be. Best would be a single market proposal ("Norway") with extra privileges. This would be in line with Macron's wish to keep ties as close as possible.

But considering the reference to the UK's "red lines", it is more likely to be a customs' union dressed up with extra cooperation mechanisms and possibly additional privileges for the UK.... for a price, naturally....

Q

There was a lot of excitement over Barnier's more positive tone, even though he'd made similar remarks before. Now he's said he's strongly opposed both to the UK's customs proposal (which he called illegal), and the common rulebook, since it would kill the European project - and in any case, separating goods and services is often not possible. So back to reality then.

Since the government is saying that it's Chequers or nothing, and since Chequers appears to be dead, it looks like a no deal outcome. And as far as a blind Brexit is concerned:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/03/emmanuel-macron-stresses-opposition-to-blind-brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/03/emmanuel-macron-stresses-opposition-to-blind-brexit)

This article says it isn't only France opposed to a blind Brexit:

Quote"It is not a matter of France being isolated on this, but they are the ones pushing it," said the diplomat. "They are always talking about the need for clarity and precision.

"Two years would not be long enough to have a wider internal discussion and negotiate with the Brits. The transition would need to be extended. France has had enough."

So it's all going terrifically well.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 03, 2018, 04:13:12 PM
(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/51/9d/13/519d135b0e34ba749210217983bcd5e4.jpg)

Well it made me chuckle.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: EddieRUKiddingVarese on September 03, 2018, 04:14:58 PM
Shouldn't the Uk just get a really really big tug boat and head out into the Indian Ocean - then you could all get some better weather and some real authentic Indian tucker and really exit Brexit  :laugh:
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 03, 2018, 04:17:33 PM
Quote from: EddieRUKiddingVarese on September 03, 2018, 04:14:58 PM
Shouldn't the Uk just get a really really big tug boat and head out into the Indian Ocean - then you could all get some better weather and some real authentic Indian tucker and really exit Brexit  :laugh:

That's actually a more coherent plan than anything the government has come up with over the last two years.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: EddieRUKiddingVarese on September 03, 2018, 04:31:22 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on September 03, 2018, 04:17:33 PM
That's actually a more coherent plan than anything the government has come up with over the last two years.

Glad to hear some one like my ideas, next I'll run for PM  :o

And my Platform will be tax Free HiFI, so vote for the HFUK party instead of the Ordinary Fi party of the UK (OFUK)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Daverz on September 03, 2018, 08:01:59 PM
Quote from: EddieRUKiddingVarese on September 03, 2018, 04:14:58 PM
Shouldn't the Uk just get a really really big tug boat and head out into the Indian Ocean - then you could all get some better weather and some real authentic Indian tucker and really exit Brexit  :laugh:

I'm told that many Britons believe this, or a similar geographic arrangement, is already the case.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: EddieRUKiddingVarese on September 03, 2018, 08:20:13 PM
Quote from: Daverz on September 03, 2018, 08:01:59 PM
I'm told that many Britons believe this, or a similar geographic arrangement, is already the case.

;D ;D ;D :o
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 03, 2018, 10:18:43 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on September 03, 2018, 03:55:40 PM
And as far as a blind Brexit is concerned:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/03/emmanuel-macron-stresses-opposition-to-blind-brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/03/emmanuel-macron-stresses-opposition-to-blind-brexit)

This article says it isn't only France opposed to a blind Brexit:

So it's all going terrifically well.

So France and Germany are not on the same page on a blind Brexit....

Macron is afraid that in the end Britain will be lost as a close partner to the EU, and tries to build last minute momentum for some kind of deal.

The Germans are perhaps less idealistic but certainly more pragmatic and realistic: there is no time left to hammer out yet another option. And the UK is politically unstable and therefore an completely unreliable negotiating partner.

When the deadline closes and the choice is between a hard Brexit now with billions of economic and political damage, or kicking the issue futher down the road... I have no doubt that the French will sign up. Whether the UK will be aboard and sign off on a NI clause, is an entirely different matter.... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on September 04, 2018, 08:05:26 AM
Quote from: Que on September 03, 2018, 10:18:43 PM
So France and Germany are not on the same page on a blind Brexit....

Macron is afraid that in the end Britain will be lost as a close partner to the EU, and tries to build last minute momentum for some kind of deal.

The Germans are perhaps less idealistic but certainly more pragmatic and realistic: there is no time left to hammer out yet another option. And the UK is politically unstable and therefore an completely unreliable negotiating partner.

When the deadline closes and the choice is between a hard Brexit now with billions of economic and political damage, or kicking the issue futher down the road... I have no doubt that the French will sign up. Whether the UK will be aboard and sign off on a NI clause, is an entirely different matter.... ::)

Q

Perhaps part of the difference lies in the fact that if there is a massive jam up for commerce coming in and out,  France will be almost the first to feel the effects, for purely logistical reasons .  The Netherlands and Belgium as well, albeit not to the same degree.   Germany will get the knock on effects but  France will have to deal with the traffic jam at the Chunnel.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 04, 2018, 09:42:36 AM
Quote from: Que on September 03, 2018, 10:18:43 PM
When the deadline closes and the choice is between a hard Brexit now with billions of economic and political damage, or kicking the issue futher down the road... I have no doubt that the French will sign up. Whether the UK will be aboard and sign off on a NI clause, is an entirely different matter.... ::)

Q

I'm not sure if the French will sign up. I think a blind Brexit would be a farce, and bad for the country, for reasons I've already mentioned. But even leaving that aside, there's no point in France or the EU as a whole agreeing to such a monumental fudge if we're just going to end up in the same position at the end of the transition period as we are now - and I don't see how that can be avoided: the ERG is committed to voting down Chequers even in its current form, and they have more than enough Tory MPs to do that (to say nothing of other Tories who are Brexit ultras but not ERG members). Any concessions to the EU will only increase the number of Tory MPs willing to vote it down. So how does it get through the Commons? The only way I can see is with Labour support, but would Labour be willing to associate themselves with a Tory Brexit? Highly unlikely (the usual suspects like Field, Stringer and Hoey excepted).

As incredible as it may seem, getting a deal with the EU is actually the "easier" bit of this lunacy - but even that is pointless if any deal which could conceivably be agreed is bound to be voted down in the Commons.  And anything other than a hard Brexit looks certain to be defeated by the ERG, whether that deal is reached now or at the end of the transition period. If anything, a blind Brexit is a risk for the EU, because there's a serious chance that when we're out at the end of March, May will be ousted and replaced by some ERG-approved lunatic, and there certainly won't be any deal to be done with them, nothing that would be even close to acceptable from the EU's point of view anyway. Indeed, an ERG-run government might well be actively hostile to the EU. God knows they're mad enough.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: EddieRUKiddingVarese on September 05, 2018, 03:04:26 PM
Just increase the width of the English Channel, that should do it  :laugh:
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 09, 2018, 09:34:39 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on August 18, 2018, 04:19:48 PM
Would you believe it - it seems that Bertie Wooster and his chums are finally about to publish a Brexit plan of their own:

Update to the above:

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1038528269132484608 (https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1038528269132484608)

https://twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1038689473347891201 (https://twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1038689473347891201)


So, as you were then. No alternative plan after all.

Why not? Well the article in the first link says some MPs were concerned that publishing a plan of their own would give "ammunition for Downing Street and pro-European groups to attack their proposals", while the second tweet says that "some of the chapters, which have been studied by a wide range of Eurosceptics, are said to be riddled with factual and legal errors".

Put the two tweets together and roughly translated they appear to mean: "if we publish a plan of our own we'll be advertising the fact that we're a bunch of clueless fuckwits who have no idea how to make our mad ideas work, which means there would be a serious risk of being rumbled by the people we conned into voting for this train wreck. It's a lot easier to just carry on doing what we've been doing since before the referendum - attacking everyone else's plans by repeating the same vacuous slogans ad nauseam and screaming "betrayal!" at the drop a hat. We're really good at that."
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on September 09, 2018, 10:02:11 AM
Meanwhile Mr. Minnow's horde of fellow Remoaners sabotages the Proms
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1014968/Last-night-of-the-proms-EU-flags-anti-Brexit-campaign-sabotage-British-brexit-news

If this be sabotage make the most of it!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 09, 2018, 03:06:00 PM
Quote from: JBS on September 09, 2018, 10:02:11 AM
Meanwhile Mr. Minnow's horde of fellow Remoaners sabotages the Proms
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1014968/Last-night-of-the-proms-EU-flags-anti-Brexit-campaign-sabotage-British-brexit-news

If this be sabotage make the most of it!

It's not easy being an Enemy of the PeopleTM. We have to grab whatever opportunities come our way.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Pat B on September 11, 2018, 01:35:53 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on September 09, 2018, 09:34:39 AM
Update to the above:

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1038528269132484608 (https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1038528269132484608)

https://twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1038689473347891201 (https://twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1038689473347891201)


So, as you were then. No alternative plan after all.

Why not? Well the article in the first link says some MPs were concerned that publishing a plan of their own would give "ammunition for Downing Street and pro-European groups to attack their proposals", while the second tweet says that "some of the chapters, which have been studied by a wide range of Eurosceptics, are said to be riddled with factual and legal errors".

Put the two tweets together and roughly translated they appear to mean: "if we publish a plan of our own we'll be advertising the fact that we're a bunch of clueless fuckwits who have no idea how to make our mad ideas work, which means there would be a serious risk of being rumbled by the people we conned into voting for this train wreck. It's a lot easier to just carry on doing what we've been doing since before the referendum - attacking everyone else's plans by repeating the same vacuous slogans ad nauseam and screaming "betrayal!" at the drop a hat. We're really good at that."

The first tweet seems to be the relevant one. Have factual or legal errors stopped them before? Especially in a proposal that they don't expect to actually be implemented.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 11, 2018, 04:55:21 PM
Quote from: Pat B on September 11, 2018, 01:35:53 PM
Have factual or legal errors stopped them before? Especially in a proposal that they don't expect to actually be implemented.

You're right of course, such errors have never stopped them before and won't stop them now. Whenever an inconvenient fact about Brexit is pointed out their standard response is to cry "Project Fear!" in much the same way that Trump cries "fake news!". By this logic, "Project Fear" includes everyone from the civil service to the Royal Pharmaceutical Society.

I'm not so sure that they don't expect this nonsense to be implemented though. If reports this evening are to be believed, the ERG's latest meeting saw MPs openly discussing how to oust May and replace her with someone more to the ERG's liking - presumably Johnson or Rees Mogg. It won't happen before the Tory party conference and maybe not immediately after that, but there's a pretty good chance it will happen at some point in the next few months. If it does, they are more than mad enough to try implementing this madness. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 13, 2018, 04:37:50 PM
The government has released another batch of impact notices on the effects of leaving with no deal (or as the Brexit ultras would have it, a "World Trade Brexit"). They are apparently hoping that these notices will convince Tory MPs to back Chequers as it's the only plan on the table - it's Chequers or nothing. Since the EU has already rejected the central planks of Chequers, our options would appear to be somewhat limited. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 17, 2018, 09:50:39 PM
The lack of a substantial swing towards "remain" seals the fate of any 2nd referendum IMO....

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/600A/production/_103468542_want_to_leave_2-nc.png)

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-45520517

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on September 18, 2018, 03:47:32 AM
If those polls truly reflect wider opinion (and as we've often seen they can be wide of the mark), then in the face of overwhelming evidence that Brexit is an enormous and pointless act of self-sabotage, it just seems like we're confronted with a stubborn ideological blindness. All other considerations are sacrificed to a completely quixotic notion of a free and independent homeland, an emotional issue beyond the interrogation of logic or pragmatism. These are feelings which of course can be easily stoked by media-spinning figures with their own/other agendas, and I can't help but feel Remain would benefit from some kind of demagogue figure to redress the balance.

To be fair it is an emotional issue for me too (a Remainer) but at least I feel that Remainers have some kind of logic on which to base their preference.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 18, 2018, 05:21:38 AM
What will Brexit look like? If the ultras get their way, something like this:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/18/rightwing-thinktanks-unveil-radical-plan-for-us-uk-brexit-trade-deal-nhs (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/18/rightwing-thinktanks-unveil-radical-plan-for-us-uk-brexit-trade-deal-nhs)

You won't see any of this stuff on the side of a big red bus any time soon.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on September 18, 2018, 08:25:35 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on September 18, 2018, 05:21:38 AM
What will Brexit look like? If the ultras get their way, something like this:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/18/rightwing-thinktanks-unveil-radical-plan-for-us-uk-brexit-trade-deal-nhs (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/18/rightwing-thinktanks-unveil-radical-plan-for-us-uk-brexit-trade-deal-nhs)

You won't see any of this stuff on the side of a big red bus any time soon.

Foreign competition in legal services?
What is that supposed to be? Letting US attorneys practice in England?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 18, 2018, 09:00:35 AM
We are heading for a Blind Brexit (https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/jonathan-lis-blind-brexit-1-5693994) (The New European)

(https://images.archant.co.uk/polopoly_fs/1.5693993.1536844576!/image/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_630/image.jpg)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 18, 2018, 10:10:51 AM
Quote from: Que on September 18, 2018, 09:00:35 AM
We are heading for a Blind Brexit (https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/jonathan-lis-blind-brexit-1-5693994) (The New European)

(https://images.archant.co.uk/polopoly_fs/1.5693993.1536844576!/image/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_630/image.jpg)

Q

Marvellous stuff:

QuoteIt would offer nothing concrete on, say, the single market and customs union, and save everything for the transition – which would probably last a minimum of five years, and even then require an actual implementation period once everything that had been negotiated was finally actioned.

In the final fudge, then, Brussels would allow our exhausted government to squeak past the finish line, declare Brexit 'delivered', and kick every major decision affecting British jobs and the economy into the long grass of near-interminable negotiation.

[....]

Third, it would gravely damage the Remain cause, and specifically the campaign for a People's Vote. The entire premise of the vote is to empower the British people to evaluate the prime minister's deal against the option of staying in (and, as some advocate, leaving with no deal at all).

That means clarity and transparency about our future economic status and influence over decision-making. But if nobody knows what that is, we cannot vote on it.

If May tries this I hope it gets voted down in the Commons. It would be a disgrace to present parliament and the country with a largely blank piece of paper and ask for the right to fill in the details in whatever way they see fit when/if they can think of something. The opposition parties would probably vote against it, but as for the Tory rebels, who knows. Most of them don't have much of a backbone.

In any case, while the EU doesn't want a no deal scenario, it should also be aware of the danger of signing up to a deal at any price. Gove's comment that any deal we agree could be unpicked by future governments should be a warning of just how untrustworthy these bastards are.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 18, 2018, 10:18:06 AM
Quote from: Iota on September 18, 2018, 03:47:32 AM
If those polls truly reflect wider opinion (and as we've often seen they can be wide of the mark), then in the face of overwhelming evidence that Brexit is an enormous and pointless act of self-sabotage, it just seems like we're confronted with a stubborn ideological blindness. All other considerations are sacrificed to a completely quixotic notion of a free and independent homeland, an emotional issue beyond the interrogation of logic or pragmatism. These are feelings which of course can be easily stoked by media-spinning figures with their own/other agendas, and I can't help but feel Remain would benefit from some kind of demagogue figure to redress the balance.

To be fair it is an emotional issue for me too (a Remainer) but at least I feel that Remainers have some kind of logic on which to base their preference.

The Leave voters I know still don't believe that Brexit will cause any of the problems they've been warned about. I was in a discussion about Brexit recently and the topic of disruption to just in time supply chains came up. The evidence is that even very short delays at customs will cause huge tailbacks that will go on for miles, but the only answer to this from the Brexiters present was, "they won't let that happen. It'll get sorted somehow. It'll be fine." That's it. No logic, no evidence, just a blind faith that it will somehow work out.     
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Sydney Nova Scotia on September 18, 2018, 10:55:52 PM
Just Ask Donald for advice- I'm sure he will give it  :o

Simple...............
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on September 21, 2018, 08:09:15 AM
Seems to be total meltdown.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 21, 2018, 03:23:40 PM
Quote from: vandermolen on September 21, 2018, 08:09:15 AM
Seems to be total meltdown.

Today's laughable display of infantile histrionics stirring display of standing up for Britain will probably get May through the party conference, but that's about it. Especially odd was her claim that the EU 27 had suddenly sprung their objections to undermining the single market on her at this late stage, when they've been telling her that for the last two years.

Naturally the Brexiters are delighted. They're now pushing her to go for a Canada-type FTA, which doesn't replicate the frictionless trade we have in the single market or do anything to solve the problem of the Irish border, or crash out with no deal at all. Operation Clusterfuck is right on track. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 21, 2018, 11:39:56 PM
I have to agree with these gloomy comments... :(

The EU stands it ground on the integrity of the internal market, which means the basic options on trade relations remain the same.
The UK will have to pick one, be it Canada or Norway. I'm sure some extras can be negotiated, on defence and security for instance. But only if the jurisdiction of the ECJ is accepted.

But the trade deal is of later concern, and will probably be negotiated by a different UK government.
What we need right now is an exit deal that will provide a transitional period.
And the main stumbling block for that was and is Northern Ireland.....

It seems the UK govt. assumed that Ireland would stand alone on this at the moment of truth, but the EU 27 have firmly closed their ranks.  I don't think they are going to blink, will the UK?  ::)

Chances of a hard, no deal, cliff edge Brexit are rising significantly - the Pound has plummeted...
We're going to know pretty soon: the planning is for a basic agreement in October, signed of in November.... after that time has run out.. and it's time to prepare ourselves. I'm pretty sure the European Commission will already have some emergency regulations on the shelf to deal unilaterally with some of the immediate issues that will arise. Several member states - particularly those with strong (economic) ties with the UK -  are doing the same.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on September 22, 2018, 04:01:22 AM
My brother (retired parliamentary lawyer) has been asked back to work as they are desperate for pre-Brexit legislators.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on September 22, 2018, 11:55:11 AM
I cannot think of anything in my lifetime that compares with Brexit (I'm in my fifties) and keep hoping that there'll be some indication that we'll pull back from this madness (at the very least from a hard Brexit), but I haven't seen any yet, and the nightmarish trudge forwards/downwards continues.
I'm somewhat nonplussed by the vox pop interviews where people say they're bored and just want the whole thing to be over, without seeming to care too much which way it goes, it seems extraordinary that people can have such a que sera, sera attitude to such a tectonic and potentially disastrous shift. But then perhaps it's me and people like me who are actually in the minority in being so concerned about Brexit being a bringer of doom, in which case the chances of some kind of reversal seem even more remote.

One of my hopes is that a hard brexit *is* off the cards behind the scenes, and is only obscured because it would affect negotiating leverage. But there is such a gallery of shifty, ruthless rogues wandering around the corridors of power at the moment, that that may well be a very forlorn hope.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 22, 2018, 04:48:06 PM
Quote from: JBS on September 18, 2018, 08:25:35 AM
Foreign competition in legal services?
What is that supposed to be? Letting US attorneys practice in England?

God knows. Think of the most bizarre interpretation you can and just assume that's what they mean. There's a fair chance you'll be right. Nothing these maniacs come up with surprises me anymore.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 22, 2018, 05:07:55 PM
Quote from: Iota on September 22, 2018, 11:55:11 AM
I cannot think of anything in my lifetime that compares with Brexit (I'm in my fifties) and keep hoping that there'll be some indication that we'll pull back from this madness (at the very least from a hard Brexit), but I haven't seen any yet, and the nightmarish trudge forwards/downwards continues.
I'm somewhat nonplussed by the vox pop interviews where people say they're bored and just want the whole thing to be over, without seeming to care too much which way it goes, it seems extraordinary that people can have such a que sera, sera attitude to such a tectonic and potentially disastrous shift. But then perhaps it's me and people like me who are actually in the minority in being so concerned about Brexit being a bringer of doom, in which case the chances of some kind of reversal seem even more remote.

I don't think many of the "just get on with it" crowd really believe that Brexit is going to cause much, if any damage. Only when the damage is done will it sink in, and it will be too late by then.

QuoteOne of my hopes is that a hard brexit *is* off the cards behind the scenes, and is only obscured because it would affect negotiating leverage. But there is such a gallery of shifty, ruthless rogues wandering around the corridors of power at the moment, that that may well be a very forlorn hope.

I fear it is a forlorn hope. And speaking of shifty ruthless rogues, the "Leave Means Leave" campaign held a rally today featuring David "there will be no downside to Brexit, only an upside" Davis. Also present was Nigel Farage, who apparently thinks leaving without a deal wouldn't be a problem. They aren't putting forward a detailed plan of their own of course - that would entail the hard work of coming up with something viable. Much better to shout betrayal from the sidelines and tell the public that they can have a cake and unicorns Brexit, and if the EU says no it's because they're trying to bully us. Davis told the rally that if the EU thinks it can bully the UK, they should read some history books. That's the mentality they're appealing to, apparently unaware that it's not 1940 anymore. Who needs a properly thought out plan when you can spout bellicose rhetoric and be cheered to the rafters instead?


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 22, 2018, 11:25:52 PM
It's interesting how many Brits seem unaware of the facts that not only membership of the then European Communities brought the UK strong economic growth and development, but the UK was also the driving force behind the formation of the internal market and the expansion of the EU towards the East. Only after German reunification the balance of power shifted, and France and Germany decided on a more "(con)federalist" course towards "an ever closer union". At which point Britain negotiated its many famous "opt outs".
Britain's membership of the EU significantly amplified its weight and status on the world stage. Instead of just another larger medium sized country, Britain was a major player in one of the largest economic and political alliances in the world and a linking pin in transatlantic cooperation.

Now the EU is blamed for the UK's own failed immigration policies, driven by a wish for cheap labour, and social economic inequality, which is again of its own making. And the same goes for its fishery policies, and so on and so forth...

How much the world has changed in so little time..... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 23, 2018, 05:53:18 AM

Why Theresa May's Salzburg humiliation increases the chance of a no-deal Brexit (https://www.businessinsider.nl/theresa-mays-salzburg-humiliation-increases-chance-of-no-deal-brexit-2018-9/?international=true&r=US) (Business Insider)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on September 23, 2018, 05:58:34 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on September 22, 2018, 05:07:55 PMWho needs a properly thought out plan when you can spout bellicose rhetoric and be cheered to the rafters instead?

That neatly sums up the pathogenic climate of the Brexit debate. Perhaps Remain needs their own bellicose spouter to fight fire with fire, or at least someone to start a Mexican Wave of sanity.

Quote from: Que on September 22, 2018, 11:25:52 PM
Only after German reunification the balance of power shifted, and France and Germany decided on a more "(con)federalist" course towards "an ever closer union".

Yes indeed, I think this is the fundamental anathema to the Brexiteer mindset.


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on September 23, 2018, 01:43:07 PM
Quote from: Iota on September 22, 2018, 11:55:11 AM
I cannot think of anything in my lifetime that compares with Brexit (I'm in my fifties) and keep hoping that there'll be some indication that we'll pull back from this madness (at the very least from a hard Brexit), but I haven't seen any yet, and the nightmarish trudge forwards/downwards continues.
I'm somewhat nonplussed by the vox pop interviews where people say they're bored and just want the whole thing to be over, without seeming to care too much which way it goes, it seems extraordinary that people can have such a que sera, sera attitude to such a tectonic and potentially disastrous shift. But then perhaps it's me and people like me who are actually in the minority in being so concerned about Brexit being a bringer of doom, in which case the chances of some kind of reversal seem even more remote.

One of my hopes is that a hard brexit *is* off the cards behind the scenes, and is only obscured because it would affect negotiating leverage. But there is such a gallery of shifty, ruthless rogues wandering around the corridors of power at the moment, that that may well be a very forlorn hope.
I totally agree with you. I have never known anything like it either (early sixties). Still, no one can say that British politics is boring at the moment.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 23, 2018, 02:44:49 PM
Quote from: Que on September 22, 2018, 11:25:52 PM
It's interesting how many Brits seem unaware of the facts that not only membership of the then European Communities brought the UK strong economic growth and development, but the UK was also the driving force behind the formation of the internal market and the expansion of the EU towards the East. Only after German reunification the balance of power shifted, and France and Germany decided on a more "(con)federalist" course towards "an ever closer union". At which point Britain negotiated its many famous "opt outs".
Britain's membership of the EU significantly amplified its weight and status on the world stage. Instead of just another larger medium sized country, Britain was a major player in one of the largest economic and political alliances in the world and a linking pin in transatlantic cooperation.

Now the EU is blamed for the UK's own failed immigration policies, driven by a wish for cheap labour, and social economic inequality, which is again of its own making. And the same goes for its fishery policies, and so on and so forth...

How much the world has changed in so little time..... ::)

Q

We've had 30 years of the Tory press spouting virulently anti-EU bullshit. It's not really a surprise that so many Brits know sod all about it.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 06, 2018, 02:42:20 AM
There seems to be an increasing chance that a cliff edge will avoided:

EU negotiators say Brexit deal 'very close' but details missing (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-deal/eu-negotiators-say-brexit-deal-very-close-but-details-missing-idUSKCN1MF0K9)

As I understand it, the EU is willing to compromise in agreeing to a "backstop" on Northern Ireland that would apply to the whole of the UK. A concept that, if executed, would be at odds with May's infamous red lines.... And with the "free trade" model of hard line Brexiteers. Why not stay part of the internal market altogether?  ::)

I suspect the EU negotiators are taking their chances, and are hoping for a future UK (Labour) government opting for a soft Brexit.

If such an exit deal with a transitional arrangement is agreed, May might need Labour votes to get it through parliament.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 06, 2018, 06:21:45 AM
Quote from: Que on October 06, 2018, 02:42:20 AM
There seems to be an increasing chance that a cliff edge will avoided:

EU negotiators say Brexit deal 'very close' but details missing (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-deal/eu-negotiators-say-brexit-deal-very-close-but-details-missing-idUSKCN1MF0K9)

As I understand it, the EU is willing to compromise in agreeing to a "backstop" on Northern Ireland that would apply to the whole of the UK.

It's not quite clear what the article means when it says that:

QuoteAny such compromise would leave the EU concerned that Britain could use Northern Ireland's special access to the bloc's single market to sell cheaper goods that would not adhere to EU labour, environment and other standards.

The bloc worries that London would try to use that unique trade arrangement as a building block for the overall future trade relationship and win an unfair competitive edge.

It's not clear what "any such compromise" refers to here; does it mean a backstop in which only NI stays in the customs union, or one in which the whole UK does?

If it means the former that would be odd, since it was the EU which proposed just NI staying part of the CU, in which case why propose it if they're concerned it would give the UK an unfair advantage? But if it means the latter - as it appears to - the same question arises: why agree to something now that would put the EU at a disadvantage?


QuoteA concept that, if executed, would be at odds with May's infamous red lines.... And with the "free trade" model of hard line Brexiteers.

And therein lies the problem. If she backs away from any of her red lines the Brexit ultras will almost certainly vote it down, especially as they've already pledged to vote against her plan even in its current form.

QuoteIf such an exit deal with a transitional arrangement is agreed, May might need Labour votes to get it through parliament.

It's virtually certain she would need Labour votes. Those Labour MPs who have been most vocal about "respecting the referendum result" because they're shit scared of being voted out at the next election concerned to defend democracy are mostly on the right of the party, and represent leave-voting seats. They're the ones who are most likely to vote for any deal May brings back, so ironically if they did help get a Brexit deal through the Commons it would be a chunk of the Labour right enabling Brexit - the party's right having tried to pin the blame for Brexit on Corbyn. 

That said, I'd be surprised if the number of Labour MPs willing to vote for May's deal were to exceed the number of Tory MPs willing to vote it down. The Guardian was reporting a day or two back that Downing Street is confident they can get the number of Tory rebels down to about 10 diehards, which sounds very optimistic given the ideological zealotry of the ERG and their ilk. For the Brexit ultras to back down and vote May's deal through would be the mother of all climbdowns. 

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 14, 2018, 02:22:27 AM
It's going to be a cliff hanger....


Brexit Deal Hangs in the Balance With Monday Deadline in Doubt (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-13/brexit-deal-hangs-in-balance-as-monday-deadline-said-in-doubt)

I'm assuming May will come home with some kind of exit deal. May wouldn't want to be responsible for a no deal catastrophe.
Unless she was actually serious about no deal being better than a bad deal...

But the big question is: will May get it through parliament without the support of the DUP and hard Brexiteers?
I think she is gambling on the fear of a no deal situation amongst members of the opposition. Though Corbyn will instruct Labour MP's to vote against, hoping to trigger a general election.

A big gamble on Corbyn's part as well: if the Tory government subsequently survives, there is simply no deal.
In the case of a general election, negotiations will probably be extended and resumed by a new Labour government (?).
And then the whole drama will start all over gain, though the EU might immediately force Corbyn's hand in making a choice between remaing in the internal market (Norway) or a bilateral trade agreement  (Canada).

Any thoughts?

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on October 14, 2018, 03:28:34 PM
A cliffhanger it certainly is!

Quote from: Que on October 14, 2018, 02:22:27 AMMay wouldn't want to be responsible for a no deal catastrophe.
Unless she was actually serious about no deal being better than a bad deal..

She may not want a no deal catastrophe, but as you say she is so vulnerable and she may take it just to stay in power, after all we're only in this situation because her predecessor wanted to do just the same.   
She's said before things like a no deal Brexit wouldn't be the end of the world, and would be preferable to a break up of the UK etc, etc, so she may have been trying to prepare the ground for making it one of her options. You seem to suggest that may have been just theatre, I hope you're right.

But really I speculate and know nothing, only that I'm sickened by this imbroglio.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 14, 2018, 04:10:01 PM
Quote from: Que on October 14, 2018, 02:22:27 AM
It's going to be a cliff hanger....


Brexit Deal Hangs in the Balance With Monday Deadline in Doubt (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-13/brexit-deal-hangs-in-balance-as-monday-deadline-said-in-doubt)

I'm assuming May will come home with some kind of exit deal. May wouldn't want to be responsible for a no deal catastrophe.
Unless she was actually serious about no deal being better than a bad deal...

But the big question is: will May get it through parliament without the support of the DUP and hard Brexiteers?
I think she is gambling on the fear of a no deal situation amongst members of the opposition. Though Corbyn will instruct Labour MP's to vote against, hoping to trigger a general election.

A big gamble on Corbyn's part as well: if the Tory government subsequently survives, there is simply no deal.
In the case of a general election, negotiations will probably be extended and resumed by a new Labour government (?).
And then the whole drama will start all over gain, though the EU might immediately force Corbyn's hand in making a choice between remaing in the internal market (Norway) or a bilateral trade agreement  (Canada).

Any thoughts?

Q

It's not looking good, is it? If May concedes an indefinite Irish backstop she might get a deal with the EU - though the EU has already rejected Chequers, so it's not as if agreement on the backstop automatically means a deal being agreed. But let's assume that it does: no such deal will get through the Commons because the Brexit ultras and the DUP will vote it down. But if she insists on a time-limited backstop there will definitely be no deal to put to the Commons in the first place.

It's being suggested that a possible way around the backstop issue is to simply extend the transition period if required. But that raises the obvious question of whether the Brexit ultras would swallow such an arrangement. They might, but it seems to me quite likely that they would demand a time limit on any extension of the transition period just as they're currently demanding a time limit on the backstop. In which case it's back to the drawing board. Another possibility is a review clause, but given the Brexiteers' pathological hatred of the EU, would they accept this idea, or reject it on the grounds that the EU would use any review to insist that the transition arrangements continue for who knows how long?

Maybe yet another fudge will emerge in the next few days which enables a deal to be agreed, but even if it does, as things stand it's really hard to see any deal May could conceivably get making it through parliament, in which case it's no deal.   

It's almost as if this should have been thought through before the referendum.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 14, 2018, 04:19:50 PM
Quote from: Iota on October 14, 2018, 03:28:34 PM

She's said before things like a no deal Brexit wouldn't be the end of the world, and would be preferable to a break up of the UK etc, etc

Though a no deal Brexit might very well boost support for Scottish independence, so banking on a no deal Brexit to save the union wouldn't be too clever. Though this is the woman who thought it was a good idea to appoint Boris Johnson foreign secretary, so all bets are off.

QuoteBut really I speculate and know nothing, only that I'm sickened by this imbroglio

We're now at the point where all the Brexiters have left is to insist that we have to drive the country off a cliff because if we don't the public will be disillusioned.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on October 14, 2018, 05:30:06 PM
Brexit argument in summary
If you promised to commit suicide you have no right to change your mind.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 17, 2018, 08:14:27 AM
As they say: a picture is worth a thousand words....

(https://cdn-02.independent.ie/incoming/article37428845.ece/5c32e/AUTOCROP/w620/U-BARNIER%2016.jpg)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 17, 2018, 03:46:01 PM
http://uk.businessinsider.com/trump-uk-must-bin-unjustified-food-standards-for-brexit-trade-deal-2018-10 (http://uk.businessinsider.com/trump-uk-must-bin-unjustified-food-standards-for-brexit-trade-deal-2018-10)

QuoteChlorine-washed chicken, hormone-injected beef and food containing maggots, rat-hair and mould are just some of the imports post-Brexit Britain could receive from the US.

Bloody EU. We didn't fight two world wars just to be told by some uppity Eurocrat that we can't eat maggots and rat-hair. It's our inalienable right as a proud and independent nation. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on October 17, 2018, 10:52:22 PM
All going well isn't it?
::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 18, 2018, 07:32:34 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on October 17, 2018, 10:52:22 PM
All going well isn't it?
::)

At least we know who's responsible:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dpywt1vXcAARLeB.jpg:large)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on October 18, 2018, 11:47:56 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on October 17, 2018, 03:46:01 PM
http://uk.businessinsider.com/trump-uk-must-bin-unjustified-food-standards-for-brexit-trade-deal-2018-10 (http://uk.businessinsider.com/trump-uk-must-bin-unjustified-food-standards-for-brexit-trade-deal-2018-10)

Bloody EU. We didn't fight two world wars just to be told by some uppity Eurocrat that we can't eat maggots and rat-hair. It's our inalienable right as a proud and independent nation.

I don't know about the bleached chicken, and the hormonally enhanced beef is doubtless a real thing, but I think the business about rat hair and maggots is a bit of a clickbait scare.  At the very least, we American consumers have about the same opinion of rat hair and maggots as British consumers do, and it would be a brash company that tried to take refuge in regulations as a defense against customer complaints.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 18, 2018, 01:46:05 PM
Quote from: JBS on October 18, 2018, 11:47:56 AM
I don't know about the bleached chicken, and the hormonally enhanced beef is doubtless a real thing, but I think the business about rat hair and maggots is a bit of a clickbait scare.  At the very least, we American consumers have about the same opinion of rat hair and maggots as British consumers do, and it would be a brash company that tried to take refuge in regulations as a defense against customer complaints.

It says that the US regulations allow a certain amount of those things, so I'm assuming they checked their facts before saying that, as it's the sort of thing which could probably be disproved fairly easily if it were untrue. Either US regulations make these allowances or they don't. Assuming it's true, it's not a good look for any government trying to sell the merits of a trade deal with the US to the UK public, though in any case I suspect maggots and rat-hair would be the least of their/our problems.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on October 18, 2018, 05:19:48 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on October 18, 2018, 01:46:05 PM
It says that the US regulations allow a certain amount of those things, so I'm assuming they checked their facts before saying that, as it's the sort of thing which could probably be disproved fairly easily if it were untrue. Either US regulations make these allowances or they don't. Assuming it's true, it's not a good look for any government trying to sell the merits of a trade deal with the US to the UK public, though in any case I suspect maggots and rat-hair would be the least of their/our problems.

Perhaps I was not clear. I am sure those regulations exist. But I have never  found rathairs in my food, or anything like that. The US consumer is often more fastidious than regulators are,  enough that no company could regularly get away with it if it wanted to keep its customers.  So the British consumer should not expect to be find rathairs in their vegetables if they buy American.

Hormones in beef is a real thing, but I think that reflects a difference between American and European practices.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 18, 2018, 10:25:06 PM
It's a mess..... The negotiations on the exit deal are now basically a stand off between Ireland and Britain.

It seems that Britain's imperial past is coming back to haunt it...

Taoiseach should refuse to compromise on Brexit, voters say (https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/taoiseach-should-refuse-to-compromise-on-brexit-voters-say-1.3666980) (Irish Times)

QuoteThe EU is firmly behind Ireland. It says any "hard border" infrastructure on its frontier with the British province of the island would revive sectarian conflict. Many small EU states see the willingness of big powers to risk trade with Britain to protect Ireland as an acid test of the value of EU membership.

Take it or leave it? EU offers May few options on Brexit deal (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-deal/take-it-or-leave-it-eu-offers-may-few-options-on-brexit-deal-idUSKCN1MS28J) (Reuters)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on October 18, 2018, 10:45:56 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on October 18, 2018, 07:32:34 AM
At least we know who's responsible:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dpywt1vXcAARLeB.jpg:large)

Very good point.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 19, 2018, 03:46:34 AM
Quote from: JBS on October 18, 2018, 05:19:48 PM
Perhaps I was not clear. I am sure those regulations exist. But I have never  found rathairs in my food, or anything like that. The US consumer is often more fastidious than regulators are,  enough that no company could regularly get away with it if it wanted to keep its customers.  So the British consumer should not expect to be find rathairs in their vegetables if they buy American.

Hormones in beef is a real thing, but I think that reflects a difference between American and European practices.

The problem for the likes of Liam Fox is that if the regulations allow a certain amount of such things, and we sign up to similar regulations as part of a trade deal with the US, his claim that our post-Brexit food standards will not be lowered in pursuit of trade deals will be completely discredited. Much like Fox himself. At one point he had a stab at claiming chlorinated chicken would be fine but it didn't go down too well so he keeps quiet about it now. I'm not sure he'd be too successful at defending headlines about maggots and rat-hair, though it would probably be quite amusing to watch him try.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 19, 2018, 04:49:39 AM
Interesting analysis from Robert Peston:

https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2189927274665339/ (https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2189927274665339/)

Quote9) She knows, because her Brexit negotiator Olly Robbins has told her, that her best chance - probably her only chance of securing a Brexit deal - is to sign up for the customs union.

10) In its absence, no-deal Brexit is massively in play.

11) But a customs-union Brexit deal would see her Brexiter MPs become incandescent with fury.

12)Labour of course would be on the spot, since its one practical Brexit policy is to stay in the Customs Union.

13) This therefore is May's Robert Peel moment. She could agree a Customs Union Brexit and get it through Parliament with Labour support - while simultaneously cleaving her own party in two.

14)It is a Customs Union Brexit, or leave the EU without a deal.


"It is a Customs Union Brexit, or leave the EU without a deal" is chilling. If Peston's info is correct, May's choice is between the option that does the least damage to the country and the one which does the least damage to her party. In which case we're pretty much screwed.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on October 19, 2018, 08:28:28 AM
From Toronto's Globe and Mail: the mad, the bad and the fools are now in charge.


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-a-self-destructive-madness-grips-the-uk-as-a-no-deal-brexit-looms/ (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-a-self-destructive-madness-grips-the-uk-as-a-no-deal-brexit-looms/)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on October 20, 2018, 12:40:39 AM
Quote from: André on October 19, 2018, 08:28:28 AM
From Toronto's Globe and Mail: the mad, the bad and the fools are now in charge.


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-a-self-destructive-madness-grips-the-uk-as-a-no-deal-brexit-looms/ (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-a-self-destructive-madness-grips-the-uk-as-a-no-deal-brexit-looms/)

Depressing but true. I heard John Major's speech and agree with everything in it.

Churchill himself said that he looked forward to a 'United States of Europe'.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 20, 2018, 02:26:28 AM
Frankly, I think the negotiations are over....  ???

Not because time has ran out, but because there is not much left to say.... ::)

And it seems that in the EU most are gradually assuming and accepting that there will be no deal.

Political fatigue has set in... no deal might now become a self fulfilling prophecy.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 21, 2018, 01:11:48 AM
If there is nothing in the weeks before Christmas, companies are going to act....

The anticipation of Brexit already had economic effects, but this process would enter a new phase.

UK firms near point of no return for Brexit contingency plans, CBI warns (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-investment/uk-firms-near-point-of-no-return-for-brexit-contingency-plans-cbi-warns-idUSKCN1MU0Z6)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 21, 2018, 09:57:35 PM
A new development: pretending there is almost a deal to keep a leadership challenge at bay...

EU withdrawal deal is 95% settled, Theresa May to tell Commons (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/21/eu-withdrawal-deal-theresa-may-commons)

???

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 22, 2018, 09:51:27 AM
(https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/politics/2018/10/22/DAVEY23102018_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqXLf5rZYUXGKwZgSx01hvqAjj8ErxbDGRAuacUwyQXO0.jpg?imwidth=700)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on October 23, 2018, 03:03:20 AM
"What was once the most powerful empire on earth is now a country that can't even find its way to the door without tripping over its own feet"

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/brexit-talks-watching-a-country-make-a-fool-of-itself-a-1234143.html (http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/brexit-talks-watching-a-country-make-a-fool-of-itself-a-1234143.html)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on October 24, 2018, 11:10:49 AM
Quote from: The new erato on October 23, 2018, 03:03:20 AM
"What was once the most powerful empire on earth is now a country that can't even find its way to the door without tripping over its own feet"

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/brexit-talks-watching-a-country-make-a-fool-of-itself-a-1234143.html (http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/brexit-talks-watching-a-country-make-a-fool-of-itself-a-1234143.html)

True but also a slightly smug example of schadenfreude.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 26, 2018, 12:43:33 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on October 24, 2018, 11:10:49 AM
True but also a slightly smug example of schadenfreude.

I saw that before and found it a painful read, even if I'm not British.
It does indeed carry the sentiment of Schadenfreude, but it is also a sign of the bitterness that has been developing on the continental side.

The general feeling in the rest of EU is that of being snubbed at in a grand way, motivated by British exceptionalism.
And the fact that two successive British foreign secretaries have compared the EU with Nazi occupation and Soviet domination respectively, hasn't helped matters much either.... Yes, Britain stood its ground and saved (with the help of the US) democracy in Europe at its darkest hour. But the British political elite seems to forget how immensely the rest of Europe has suffered at the hands of the Nazis and the Soviets.

IMO the different way in which WWII and its aftermath has been experienced on either side of the Channel, explains the difference in attitudes towards the European Union.

No matter how Brexit will pan out in the end,  I think it is safe to say that it not only has severely divided British society but also has created a deep rift with the rest of Europe.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 27, 2018, 12:32:37 AM
An interesting read on "what next?" when the present Tory government collapses - just before, or probably soon after Brexit:

Why Brexit might be as big a problem for Jeremy Corbyn as it is for Theresa May (https://theconversation.com/why-brexit-might-be-as-big-a-problem-for-jeremy-corbyn-as-it-is-for-theresa-may-105622)

If Corbyn is lucky (and clever), he wil have to take over after Brexit. Which saves him from making a choice about exiting the EU.
He will then probably decide to rejoin the single market (EEA), to save the economy and appease the remain oriented young supporters.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on October 28, 2018, 12:33:53 AM
Quote from: Que on October 26, 2018, 12:43:33 AM
I saw that before and found it a painful read, even if I'm not British.
It does indeed carry the sentiment of Schadenfreude, but it is also a sign of the bitterness that has been developing on the continental side.

The general feeling in the rest of EU is that of being snubbed at in a grand way, motivated by British exceptionalism.
And the fact that two successive British foreign secretaries have compared the EU with Nazi occupation and Soviet domination respectively, hasn't helped matters much either.... Yes, Britain stood its ground and saved (with the help of the US) democracy in Europe at its darkest hour. But the British political elite seems to forget how immensely the rest of Europe has suffered at the hands of the Nazis and the Soviets.

IMO the different way in which WWII and its aftermath has been experienced on either side of the Channel, explains the difference in attitudes towards the European Union.

No matter how Brexit will pan out in the end,  I think it is safe to say that it not only has severely divided British society but also has created a deep rift with the rest of Europe.

Q

I don't disagree although I'm not sure that there is an underestimation in the UK of European suffering under the Nazis.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 29, 2018, 10:03:59 AM
Apparently NOT a parody:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46016359 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46016359)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 29, 2018, 10:21:23 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on October 29, 2018, 10:03:59 AM
Apparently NOT a parody:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46016359 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46016359)

I seriously doubted it being anything other than a prank!

"Friendship with all nations"?  I mean....really..... this must be a very, very bad joke....


(https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1056668341602004992/s5DFv8jC?format=jpg&name=600x314)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 29, 2018, 03:45:17 PM
Quote from: Que on October 29, 2018, 10:21:23 AM
I seriously doubted it being anything other than a prank!

So did I when I first saw it, but when the likes of the BBC started reporting it I realised that it was the latest episode in the UK's mission to turn itself into a laughing stock. First we had headlines in the press celebrating the "triumph" of having blue passports again, even though we could still have had them in the EU. And despite a French company winning the contract to make them. Then we had the announcement of May's idea of a festival of Brexit Britain (no, that's not a parody either). Now it seems we're going for the hat-trick with the 50p coin. Because when you have a deeply split and polarised country, nothing is more certain to bring people together than issuing a new coin to commemorate a decision that half the country thinks is completely bloody insane.

Quote"Friendship with all nations"?  I mean....really..... this must be a very, very bad joke....

I think there will have to be some very small print somewhere on the coin: "Please note that friendship rates may vary and may not apply to all nations, especially in the EU". For accuracy's sake.


At least it's being greeted with all the respect and reverence that such an historic announcement deserves:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dqq9J5MX4AAoQXf.jpg:large)     (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dqq92lyWkAAyEQb.jpg)


(https://www.shropshirestar.com/resizer/EFo2hkDSew_0uWKfgNsfd38QI14=/1000x0/filters:quality(100)/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-shropshirestar-mna.s3.amazonaws.com/public/3CNFNFEZ7ZAV7MTWTQX5PGDR4Y.jpg)     (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dqqu04hWkAErA_O.jpg)






Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on October 29, 2018, 04:35:43 PM
Another possible design
A noseless Britannia, with a Latin motto (Latin because we must be properly Etonian) It is sweet and proper to spite one's face for one's country
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Pat B on October 29, 2018, 10:16:43 PM
Quote from: Que on October 29, 2018, 10:21:23 AM
I seriously doubted it being anything other than a prank!

"Friendship with all nations"?  I mean....really..... this must be a very, very bad joke....


(https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1056668341602004992/s5DFv8jC?format=jpg&name=600x314)

Q

That design is so amateurish that I think it is probably real.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 29, 2018, 10:27:59 PM
The reasons behind the motto used have become much clearer to me....

The full quote from Thomas Jefferson is:

"Peace, commerce and honest friendship with all nations; entangling alliances with none."


There you have it... Brexit in a nutshell...  ::)

Q


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on October 30, 2018, 05:55:17 AM
Quote from: Que on October 29, 2018, 10:21:23 AM
I seriously doubted it being anything other than a prank!

"Friendship with all nations"?  I mean....really..... this must be a very, very bad joke....


(https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1056668341602004992/s5DFv8jC?format=jpg&name=600x314)

Q

At another time of the year I'd have assumed that this was an April Fool joke.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on October 31, 2018, 12:41:06 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on October 29, 2018, 10:03:59 AM
Apparently NOT a parody:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46016359 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46016359)

Since Brexit, thinly veiled nationalism and an ever encroaching insanity seem to be the new normal. The utterly crass appearance of this 50p bit to celebrate what nearly all economists accept is a giant, irrational act of self sabotage is depressing, but seems in line with the 'if you play a wrong note, keep playing it till it sounds right' philosophy that Brexiteers have apparently have taken to heart. Anything to drown out the inconvenient sound of logic.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 01, 2018, 11:06:18 PM
(https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/311018-chart-uktimeline.png)

Don't count on the gift of a Christmas deal (https://think.ing.com/articles/brexit-blog-dont-count-on-the-gift-of-a-christmas-deal/)

"Given the limited scope for negotiators to pull out any more white rabbits, it looks increasingly likely that Prime Minister May will try and play for time.

By pushing back the crunch vote in the House of Commons on the final deal as far as she can, the hope is that this will help to focus Parliamentarians minds and make the vote a much more binary choice between deal and no deal as the time for renegotiation would almost be non-existent.

This tactic may also encourage some opposition MPs to vote with the government, particularly given that in the case of the Labour Party, the hints about future customs union membership are not very far away from their own Brexit policy."


"the only true deadline in the process is March 29th when the Article 50 ends – and even here, when push comes to shove there may willingness to extend the period if purely to create more time for ratification and legalities."



Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on November 01, 2018, 11:24:29 PM
Quote from: Iota on October 31, 2018, 12:41:06 PM
Since Brexit, thinly veiled nationalism and an ever encroaching insanity seem to be the new normal. The utterly crass appearance of this 50p bit to celebrate what nearly all economists accept is a giant, irrational act of self sabotage is depressing, but seems in line with the 'if you play a wrong note, keep playing it till it sounds right' philosophy that Brexiteers have apparently have taken to heart. Anything to drown out the inconvenient sound of logic.
I very much agree.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 14, 2018, 09:28:49 PM
Well, well, quite a cliff hanger for the first scene of the final act of.... Brexs*it...

Credit to the tabloid Sun, for coming up with this new name which has undoubtedly universal appeal..

What are the chances that the UK is going to sign up to an agreement that literally nobody -  Brexiteers, Remainers or Corbyn - likes?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dr_1-gsXgAAHlAy?format=jpg&name=900x900)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 14, 2018, 09:34:25 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dr_yUUCWwAAiNuZ?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on November 14, 2018, 09:41:53 PM
Yet, so far, no-one has resigned from the Cabinet or initiated a leadership challenge. Could be an interesting day.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on November 14, 2018, 11:27:46 PM
Quote from: vandermolen on November 14, 2018, 09:41:53 PM
Yet, so far, no-one has resigned from the Cabinet or initiated a leadership challenge. Could be an interesting day.
Well, I guess the point of Brexit for some was getting more power, not less. Haha.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on November 15, 2018, 02:59:12 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on November 14, 2018, 09:41:53 PM
Yet, so far, no-one has resigned from the Cabinet or initiated a leadership challenge. Could be an interesting day.

And it is.

The idiot Cameron caused some major maham, with his great referendum.
Gambling with other people's money and jobs, completely misjudging the odds, all of it leading to nothing but useless fights.

And his successor(s) just fighting for power... again without any idea about other people's money and jobs. Hurrah!

But I guess mr. Cameron doesn't feel sorry for anything, and still thinks that the referendum was a good idea.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on November 15, 2018, 05:02:21 AM
Quote from: Marc on November 15, 2018, 02:59:12 AM
And it is.

The idiot Cameron caused some major maham, with his great referendum.
Gambling with other people's money and jobs, completely misjudging the odds, all of it leading to nothing but useless fights.

And his successor(s) just fighting for power... again without any idea about other people's money and jobs. Hurrah!

But I guess mr. Cameron doesn't feel sorry for anything, and still thinks that the referendum was a good idea.

Totally agree with you. The Grand Fiasco is playing out today.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on November 15, 2018, 11:04:12 AM
What a mess. Although I've never warmed to Theresa May I have to say that I rather admire her dogged beleaguered persistence.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 16, 2018, 07:44:46 AM
Meanwhile, as Brexit and plotting for the Tory leadership dominate the headlines to the exclusion of all else:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/nov/16/uk-austerity-has-inflicted-great-misery-on-citizens-un-says (https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/nov/16/uk-austerity-has-inflicted-great-misery-on-citizens-un-says)

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/16/epitaph-theresa-may-goverment-damning-un-report (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/16/epitaph-theresa-may-goverment-damning-un-report)

[sarcasm] I'm sure that if it weren't for Brexit this would be headline news.[/sarcasm]

What's most shocking about this casual brutality is the extent to which it's become normalised. And Brexit will only make it worse. Still, blue passports and immigrants, etc..
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 16, 2018, 09:08:43 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on November 16, 2018, 07:44:46 AM
Meanwhile, as Brexit and plotting for the Tory leadership dominate the headlines to the exclusion of all else:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/nov/16/uk-austerity-has-inflicted-great-misery-on-citizens-un-says (https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/nov/16/uk-austerity-has-inflicted-great-misery-on-citizens-un-says)

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/16/epitaph-theresa-may-goverment-damning-un-report (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/16/epitaph-theresa-may-goverment-damning-un-report)

[sarcasm] I'm sure that if it weren't for Brexit this would be headline news.[/sarcasm]

What's most shocking about this casual brutality is the extent to which it's become normalised. And Brexit will only make it worse. Still, blue passports and immigrants, etc..

It's a game that is as ingenious as it evil: first you disenfranchise a large portion of your population, then you blame an outside party - in this case the EU (and immigrants) - to get a political mandate to get rid of outside restrictions and do whatever you want, just to fill up your pockets some more...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 16, 2018, 11:46:09 AM
Quote from: Que on November 16, 2018, 09:08:43 AM
It's a game that is as ingenious as it evil: first you disenfranchise a large portion of your population, then you blame an outside party - in this case the EU (and immigrants) - to get a political mandate to get rid of outside restrictions and do whatever you want, just to fill up your pockets some more...

Q

The cynicism of it is to be expected from the Tories. What's so disheartening about it is how easily a large chunk of the public can allow the anger of its legitimate grievances to be misdirected, especially when that misdirection is coming from people who want Brexit in order to pursue an even worse version of the ideology that landed those parts of the country in the shit in the first place.

Having been royally screwed once already, they're essentially saying to the Brexiters: "go right ahead, screw us over again! And why not chuck some sand in the vaseline while you're at it? We want our Brexit HARD!" For all the indignation from leave voters at being viewed as stupid, there's really no getting away from it: voting to be shafted again by the people who shafted you before is stupid. In fact it's completely bloody moronic. 

One Labour right winger has clearly decided that her best chance of saving her seat at the next election is to back May's deal:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/16/labour-mp-deal-no-deal-eu-brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/16/labour-mp-deal-no-deal-eu-brexit)

Remember, the Labour "moderates" have attacked Corbyn for not opposing Brexit strongly enough. Now some of them are willing to enable a Tory Brexit after all by voting for it in the Commons. Dear oh dear.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 18, 2018, 02:44:39 PM
Farage in the Sunday Times:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DsR81leWwAAW6Cz.jpg:large)

He was somehow able to claim during the referendum campaign that the Irish border wouldn't be a problem - and anyone saying otherwise was just part of Project Fear - despite not having given it a moment's thought. Christ.

The sooner this mendacious excrescence of fetid cocksnot is cast into the deepest fathoms of political oblivion the better.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Pat B on November 18, 2018, 09:59:10 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on November 18, 2018, 02:44:39 PM
The sooner this mendacious excrescence of fetid cocksnot is cast into the deepest fathoms of political oblivion the better.

I have always enjoyed British understatement.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 19, 2018, 04:24:32 AM
Quote from: Pat B on November 18, 2018, 09:59:10 PM
I have always enjoyed British understatement.

Happy to oblige. :D

Considering the damage Farage has helped to inflict on us, and his total abdication of any responsibility, he deserves far worse.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on November 19, 2018, 05:48:27 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on November 19, 2018, 04:24:32 AM
Considering the damage Farage has helped to inflict on us, and his total abdication of any responsibility, he deserves far worse.

Indeed. Your restraint becomes you.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 19, 2018, 06:48:14 AM
Quote from: Iota on November 19, 2018, 05:48:27 AM
Indeed. Your restraint becomes you.

:)

The government's response to the UN report is tediously predictable:

Amber Rudd "signals shift on Universal Credit".

One question later, Rudd claims the UN report is "discredited" because of of its "extraordinary political language". So, shoot the messenger then. Of course, Alston did what Rudd and co would never dare to do: he actually talked and listened to the people on the receiving end of government policy. So what does he know?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on November 19, 2018, 10:21:11 AM
Probably only visible in UK but very funny I think (my wife is a sign-language interpreter):

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-46241508/viral-fame-for-brexit-sign-language-interpreter
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 23, 2018, 02:18:07 AM
A Brexit Compromise Nobody Likes: What Could Be More English? (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/22/world/europe/brexit-uk-theresa-may.html) (NewYork Times)

Honestly, I think May might get her way....  ???

Simply because: a) British politics is unable to come up with an alternative, and b) it is still better than no deal at all...
Tory Brexiteers wanted to topple May, but didn't succeed. And there is no parliamentary majority for their preferred option of no deal.
Corbyn wants to get rid of the Tory government and renegotiate a magical exit deal with the EU himself, after new general elections. But these general elections are not going to happen. And perhaps for the best, since Corbyn is as clueless on the EU as the rest of  Westminster and Labour is also divided on Brexit.
A 2nd referendum.... Well, unless strong popular support emerges to remain in the EU, it's not going to happen either.

I do however wonder, considering the present deal, why Britain wouldn't go all the way and remain (fully) in the internal market - in addition to being part of the customs union ("Norway-plus")? Frictionless trade!! The reasons why this 2nd best option next to full membership, that has been staring us in the face right from the start, did not emerge are not rational but purely political.

This lesson had to be learned the hard way, and I think this option might come back on the table after the transition period.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on November 23, 2018, 06:50:11 AM
Why couldn't David Cameron simply have told us it was impossible to leave the EU in the first place? :'(
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 23, 2018, 09:03:28 AM
Quote from: 2dogs on November 23, 2018, 06:50:11 AM
Why couldn't David Cameron simply have told us it was impossible to leave the EU in the first place? :'(

Anything is possible, but membership of the EU is and always has been hugely beneficial to the UK - in both economical and geopolitical terms -  and any alternative arrangement will come at a cost. The more distant the new relationship, the higher costs.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 23, 2018, 03:22:03 PM
Quote from: Que on November 23, 2018, 02:18:07 AM
A Brexit Compromise Nobody Likes: What Could Be More English? (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/22/world/europe/brexit-uk-theresa-may.html) (NewYork Times)

Honestly, I think May might get her way....  ???

Simply because: a) British politics is unable to come up with an alternative, and b) it is still better than no deal at all...
Tory Brexiteers wanted to topple May, but didn't succeed. And there is no parliamentary majority for their preferred option of no deal.
Corbyn wants to get rid of the Tory government and renegotiate a magical exit deal with the EU himself, after new general elections. But these general elections are not going to happen. And perhaps for the best, since Corbyn is as clueless on the EU as the rest of  Westminster and Labour is also divided on Brexit.
A 2nd referendum.... Well, unless strong popular support emerges to remain in the EU, it's not going to happen either.

The government knows very well that there is very little chance of this deal being passed by the Commons. One story which has been officially denied - but sounds highly plausible - is that they're banking on the markets going crazy when the Commons votes it down, which will then be used to justify putting it to the Commons for a second attempt in the hope that enough MPs will be spooked by the markets and fall into line. Maybe some MPs would, but it's at best doubtful that enough would do so. The No-dealers and the DUP may only make up a small fraction of the Commons, but given the current parliamentary arithmetic there are probably enough of them to vote it down a second time. The only way that doesn't happen is if Labour backs down on a second vote and decides to vote for it, but that would be a hugely risky move for Corbyn to make given Labour has a large and very pro-EU membership. It would also mean that if May's deal goes through on Labour votes, the party might be partially tainted by a failed Brexit, even if they could argue that they opposed it on the first vote and only backed it reluctantly on the second to avoid something worse. And all of that is before you take into account the purely tribal issue of asking people in the Labour party to bail out a Tory government (and a really bloody nasty Tory government at that). 

QuoteI do however wonder, considering the present deal, why Britain wouldn't go all the way and remain (fully) in the internal market - in addition to being part of the customs union ("Norway-plus")? Frictionless trade!! The reasons why this 2nd best option next to full membership, that has been staring us in the face right from the start, did not emerge are not rational but purely political.

This lesson had to be learned the hard way, and I think this option might come back on the table after the transition period.

Any Norway-type option means accepting freedom of movement. That rules it out, since the immigration issue was of such importance in the Leave side winning. Sad, but unfortunately true.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 23, 2018, 11:35:54 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on November 23, 2018, 03:22:03 PM
The government knows very well that there is very little chance of this deal being passed by the Commons. One story which has been officially denied - but sounds highly plausible - is that they're banking on the markets going crazy when the Commons votes it down, which will then be used to justify putting it to the Commons for a second attempt in the hope that enough MPs will be spooked by the markets and fall into line. Maybe some MPs would, but it's at best doubtful that enough would do so. The No-dealers and the DUP may only make up a small fraction of the Commons, but given the current parliamentary arithmetic there are probably enough of them to vote it down a second time. The only way that doesn't happen is if Labour backs down on a second vote and decides to vote for it, but that would be a hugely risky move for Corbyn to make given Labour has a large and very pro-EU membership. It would also mean that if May's deal goes through on Labour votes, the party might be partially tainted by a failed Brexit, even if they could argue that they opposed it on the first vote and only backed it reluctantly on the second to avoid something worse. And all of that is before you take into account the purely tribal issue of asking people in the Labour party to bail out a Tory government (and a really bloody nasty Tory government at that).

Is your conclusion that a second referendum is the only way out? If not, how do you think this will play out?

QuoteAny Norway-type option means accepting freedom of movement. That rules it out, since the immigration issue was of such importance in the Leave side winning. Sad, but unfortunately true.

Three points on that. Which doesn't mean you're right on the political side of the matter!
1. Any immigration issues the UK might have are largely of its own making. We discussed before the UK decision in the past not to apply any restrictions on immigrants from the new member states to the East. Also, once these immigrants are in the UK, it doesn't apply restrictive measures that allowed under EU law, by lack of any proper system of registration.
Greed (cheap labour) and incompetence, I would say....  ::)
Policies on immigrants from non-EU countries are the sole responsibility of the UK.
2. The system of the European Economic Area (EEA) does allow for more policy freedom/restrictions for the non-EU countries, though with the current UK opt outs differences are not huge.
3. I think a negotiation strategy by which the UK would have sought a Norway style relationship with some additional restrictions on the free movement of persons, would have been successful. Instead, the UK rejected free movement altogether, as well as the jurisdiction of the ECJ...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 24, 2018, 03:58:24 PM
Quote from: Que on November 23, 2018, 11:35:54 PM
Is your conclusion that a second referendum is the only way out? If not, how do you think this will play out?

A second referendum seems unlikely at present, albeit possible. That said, if the deal is voted down in the Commons - which looks very probable, since Brexiter and DUP demands to alter parts of it can't possibly be met as it's now done and being signed tomorrow - that will concentrate minds. It may then be that a second referendum is the only option left if it's clear that there is complete parliamentary gridlock. But even then, the Commons would still have to pass legislation for a second referendum, and it's by no means clear that the numbers for that would be there, even in a gridlock scenario. It seems just as likely that in the chaos immediately following a Commons rejection of May's deal, both Brexiters and Remainers would try to seize control of the situation and push for a form of Brexit more to their liking. In addition to the five cabinet Brexiters who were apparently trying to push May to change elements of her deal, tomorrow's Telegraph says that another group of five cabinet Remainers are working on an interim Norway-type plan B so there is something on the table which would avert the chaos of a no deal Brexit. I'd normally take anything in the Tory press with a liberal pinch of salt, but this story does sound plausible.

It has to be said that a second referendum is a risky option. It could easily be lost, and even if Remain were to win, I don't think it would settle the issue, not unless the margin were at least 60-40, preferably more like 70-30 (and while the polls have been showing a majority for Remain for a while, it's still close - about 53-47 I think). One objection is that it would lead to disillusionment with politics among people who voted leave, especially among those who voted for the first time in their lives. A related objection is that this in turn could provide fertile ground for the far right to capitalise. Those are genuine risks, but on the other hand, when it becomes clear to leave voters that Brexit isn't going to provide solutions to their grievances - indeed it is likely to make those problems worse - that will lead to disillusionment anyway. You can be damn sure that the leading Brexiters won't take a shred of responsibility for the consequences of a failed Brexit. They will blame everyone but themselves, especially remainers, thus perpetuating the current division.

Another element in this which has to be taken into account is that the Brexit ultras' stalled attempt to oust May might well be back on if her deal is voted down. They don't have the numbers to trigger a no confidence vote yet, but clearly, if May's deal falls she is a lot more vulnerable, especially if she puts it to the Commons a second time in the wake of panic in the markets but it's then voted down again (which it might well be). The problem for Rees Mogg and co is that even if they get the numbers for a no confidence vote, there is a distinct possibility that May might win it, and under Tory party rules she couldn't then be challenged again for at least a year. If she were to win such a vote fairly comfortably she'd probably stay on, though if she only just scraped over the line it's possible she could go. If she were to go, that then takes us into a Tory leadership election and the possibility - indeed, likelihood - of a true Brexit believer replacing her. Any such leader would probably try for a Canada-type deal, though that doesn't solve the Irish border problem and every forecast I've seen rates it as a lot more economically damaging than a Norway-type option - oh yes, and it's not at all clear that a Canada-type deal would have any more chance of getting through the Commons than May's deal. A Norway-type deal might, but obviously that's not something that May or any other Tory leader is going to support. Labour might, but they couldn't enact it unless they win a general election, and the Tories aren't going to vote for an election since they're terrified of losing it. Maybe if the above mentioned cabinet Remainers get their Norway-for-now plan off the ground it could pass, but I wouldn't hold my breath on that one, since cabinet Brexiters will be pulling just as hard in the opposite direction.

As all this shows, we're currently in the political equivalent of a Jackson Pollock painting. The only thing I'm currently pretty confident of predicting is that the Commons will vote down May's deal. What happens after that, god knows.

QuoteThree points on that. Which doesn't mean you're right on the political side of the matter!
1. Any immigration issues the UK might have are largely of its own making. We discussed before the UK decision in the past not to apply any restrictions on immigrants from the new member states to the East. Also, once these immigrants are in the UK, it doesn't apply restrictive measures that allowed under EU law, by lack of any proper system of registration.
Greed (cheap labour) and incompetence, I would say....  ::)
Policies on immigrants from non-EU countries are the sole responsibility of the UK.
2. The system of the European Economic Area (EEA) does allow for more policy freedom/restrictions for the non-EU countries, though with the current UK opt outs differences are not huge.
3. I think a negotiation strategy by which the UK would have sought a Norway style relationship with some additional restrictions on the free movement of persons, would have been successful. Instead, the UK rejected free movement altogether, as well as the jurisdiction of the ECJ...

Q

All of what you say here is true, but I'm afraid the logic horse has long since bolted when it comes to immigration.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on November 24, 2018, 08:37:26 PM
Regarding immigration and justice I think it would just be nice if the UK government had the final say on these matters.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on November 25, 2018, 12:33:51 AM
Quote from: 2dogs on November 24, 2018, 08:37:26 PM
Regarding immigration and justice I think it would just be nice if the UK government had the final say on these matters.
The problem with these things are that they tend to work in both directions.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 25, 2018, 02:15:25 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on November 24, 2018, 03:58:24 PM
As all this shows, we're currently in the political equivalent of a Jackson Pollock painting. The only thing I'm currently pretty confident of predicting is that the Commons will vote down May's deal. What happens after that, god knows.

I think if you look at all different possibilities, a rejection of the deal will lead to an exit without a deal. Because for another deal you need: 1) agreement by the EU to extend the negotiations, 2) a new UK government that wants a closer relationship with the EU.
It's not going to happen, which means that all remainers in parliament - possibly, or even orobably, after an initial rejection that leads to a stalemate  - will support the deal, together with May loyalists.

My two cents, anyway.... 

The only possible alternative I can see, is an accidental no deal exit,. Caused by remainers and Corbyn loyalists overplaying their hand.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on November 25, 2018, 05:38:09 AM
The Washington Post has this article about the UK's "usefulness" to the US after the Brexit.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/who-becomes-the-uss-best-friend-in-europe-after-britain-leaves-the-eu/2018/11/24/3b17ab2a-ec15-11e8-8b47-bd0975fd6199_story.html?utm_term=.328eece4a726 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/who-becomes-the-uss-best-friend-in-europe-after-britain-leaves-the-eu/2018/11/24/3b17ab2a-ec15-11e8-8b47-bd0975fd6199_story.html?utm_term=.328eece4a726)

Cold reality rules foreign relations. Loin des yeux, loin du coeur... ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on November 25, 2018, 06:47:36 AM
#727 - Another very useful summary, Mr. Minnow.

I too am nervous about a second referendum, mainly because a Remain win (however slender) is by no means certain, and the alternative seems an even more cast iron gloom than present, but also for the other ramifications you mention.
It's heartening to hear that Telegraph report that Cabinet insiders are working on a Norway type option should the need arise, there are so many lunatics with hands on the levers of power in Asylum HQ currently, and we don't hear enough common sense arguments from Tory Remainers (presumably fearful of their own membership too). It's never a nice feeling being cannon fodder in a battle being fought out in the upper echelons of power, but particularly so when the stakes are so high and the matter under discussion is so fundamentally irrational. : (



Quote from: Que on November 25, 2018, 02:15:25 AM
I think if you look at all different possibilities, a rejection of the deal will lead to an exit without a deal. Because for another deal you need: 1) agreement by the EU to extend the negotiations, 2) a new UK government that wants a closer relationship with the EU.
It's not going to happen, which means that all remainers in parliament - possibly, or even orobably, after an initial rejection that leads to a stalemate  - will support the deal, together with May loyalists.

My two cents, anyway.... 

I wonder if this takes into account how much the EU also want to avoid a 'no deal' Brexit? They also have a lot to lose, not as much as the UK I know, but as talks are about the economic self-interest of both sides, perhaps ways will be found.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 25, 2018, 06:52:01 AM
Quote from: Que on November 25, 2018, 02:15:25 AM
I think if you look at all different possibilities, a rejection of the deal will lead to an exit without a deal. Because for another deal you need: 1) agreement by the EU to extend the negotiations, 2) a new UK government that wants a closer relationship with the EU.
It's not going to happen, which means that all remainers in parliament - possibly, or even orobably, after an initial rejection that leads to a stalemate  - will support the deal, together with May loyalists.

My two cents, anyway.... 

The only possible alternative I can see, is an accidental no deal exit,. Caused by remainers and Corbyn loyalists overplaying their hand.

Q

After an initial rejection by the Commons all bets are off. It is indeed possible that Labour might reluctantly back it if it's put to a second vote, but asking Labour's hugely pro-EU membership  to swallow the party bailing out a Tory government by backing May's deal is a big ask to put it mildly. And then there's the PLP, some of whom are so fanatically anti-Corbyn that they'd vote against May's deal a second time if the party line were to support it on a second vote. 

Of course, we're assuming that an initial rejection of the deal would quickly lead to a second vote in the Commons, but that's by no means certain. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 25, 2018, 09:35:13 AM
Quote from: Iota on November 25, 2018, 06:47:36 AM
I wonder if this takes into account how much the EU also want to avoid a 'no deal' Brexit? They also have a lot to lose, not as much as the UK I know, but as talks are about the economic self-interest of both sides, perhaps ways will be found.

Indeed the EU wants to avoid a no deal Brexit, but right now their best bet is the deal with May.
Previously there were already indications that the EU would agree to extending the negotiations in case of general elections or a referendum. But that window of opportunity would be quickly closing - EU elections are in mid May and the UK would have to leave before that moment. If Labour would take over after a general election, the only feasible option would be an immediate Norway-for-now.... maybe...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on November 26, 2018, 02:14:16 PM
Quote from: 2dogs on November 23, 2018, 06:50:11 AM
Why couldn't David Cameron simply have told us it was impossible to leave the EU in the first place? :'(
Indeed  :(
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 26, 2018, 04:37:56 PM
Quote from: 2dogs on November 23, 2018, 06:50:11 AM
Why couldn't David Cameron simply have told us it was impossible to leave the EU in the first place? :'(

Because:

1. Like most of his party he'd been quite happy to scapegoat the EU for the UK's problems, for which his own party and indeed Cameron himself bear a substantial degree of responsibility. Having spent years happily trashing the EU and struggling to find a good word to say about it, it was hardly credible when he got to the referendum campaign and suddenly had to start saying, "you know that club we're in that I told you was really awful? Well leaving it would be a really bad idea!".

2. Leaving the EU isn't actually impossible. It's just a really, REALLY bad idea, as the ongoing farce so eloquently demonstrates.

Quote from: Que on November 25, 2018, 09:35:13 AM
Indeed the EU wants to avoid a no deal Brexit, but right now their best bet is the deal with May.
Previously there were already indications that the EU would agree to extending the negotiations in case of general elections or a referendum. But that window of opportunity would be quickly closing - EU elections are in mid May and the UK would have to leave before that moment. If Labour would take over after a general election, the only feasible option would be an immediate Norway-for-now.... maybe...

Q

Ironically, having spent the last two years telling us that "no deal is better than a bad deal", May has now decided that a bad deal is better than no deal. While for the EU, no deal really would be better than a bad deal, since a bad deal from the EU's perspective is one that lets the UK have its cake and eat it Brexit, which would undermine the EU by encouraging others to leave.

May apparently wants a TV debate with Corbyn. That's the same May who refused to debate with him in last year's snap election. She's also going to be travelling around the country to sell her deal to the public, but while she's anxious for us to hear what she has to say about it, she's not so keen on us having a vote to say if we approve or not.

There seems to be a bit of momentum building behind the Norway option. Assuming the Commons rejects May's deal on December 11th, it looks likely that this will be put forward as a way of avoiding a no deal Brexit, even if it's only as an interim solution.

However this farce plays out, I sincerely hope it ends up splitting the Tory party. Cameron only called the referendum in the first place in a vain attempt to resolve internal Tory divisions and as a way of avoiding the loss of further votes to UKIP. It would be poetic justice indeed if a referendum which was called solely for the benefit of the Tory party, and which looks likely to inflict considerable economic damage on the country (to say nothing of reducing us to an international laughing stock), ended up being the catalyst for a split that screws them over for years to come.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on November 26, 2018, 04:45:11 PM
Is there no politician who is willing to stand up and say that Remain needs to go back onto the table?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 26, 2018, 05:26:12 PM
Quote from: JBS on November 26, 2018, 04:45:11 PM
Is there no politician who is willing to stand up and say that Remain needs to go back onto the table?

Those pushing for another referendum are arguing that Remain should be one of the options on the ballot paper. May has said she won't support another referendum in any circumstances (though she was adamant she wouldn't call a snap election, until she called a snap election). Labour's position is to push for a general election, and if they can't get that (which they probably can't), a referendum. Corbyn doesn't seem keen on another referendum, but he may just feel that if Labour takes the risk of calling for it, it's probably best done once May's deal has been voted down and gridlock ensues. Then he could argue that it's not his preferred option but the deadlock needs to be broken. If he calls for it before then you can be sure the cry will go up that he's trying to "block Brexit", and despite the mindboggling insanity of this farce that line of attack could still be effective. Even now, when leave voters are asked for their opinions, the most common refrain is "just get on with it!". One opined that Britain should just walk away from the EU to show them that "we mean business". Quite how a single country can stare down a bloc of 27 he neglected to mention. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on November 27, 2018, 10:03:32 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on November 26, 2018, 04:37:56 PM
having spent the last two years telling us that "no deal is better than a bad deal", May has now decided that a bad deal is better than no deal.

But she's telling us that it's a good deal and the only possible deal. It's no wonder a referendum is essentially a random process with the public who are generally not experts in these issues being fed so much disinformation :(.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 01, 2018, 10:35:03 AM
The coming crisis (http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-coming-crisis.html)   (The Brexit Blog)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 01, 2018, 11:48:27 AM
Quote from: Que on December 01, 2018, 10:35:03 AM
The coming crisis (http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-coming-crisis.html)   (The Brexit Blog)

At this point I think we're all just waiting to see which particular flavour of clusterfuck we get hit by. The only thing we can say with any certainty is that whatever happens, it will definitely not be the Brexiters' fault.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 01, 2018, 12:43:57 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on December 01, 2018, 11:48:27 AM
At this point I think we're all just waiting to see which particular flavour of clusterfuck we get hit by. The only thing we can say with any certainty is that whatever happens, it will definitely not be the Brexiters' fault.

I think it's quite startling to see how completely uncertain and unpredictable the way is in which the UK will handle this major decision on its future.

In any normal situation a lack of consensus on a major decision, or at least a stable political majority on a course of action, would lead to continuation of the status quo.

But instead the UK notified its withdrawal from the EU without any such domestic political agreement. Two factors played into this IMO: 1) the use of a referendum and 2) a political system that hands power to a government that doesn't actually have the support of a popular majority.

Q

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 01, 2018, 02:09:19 PM
Quote from: Que on December 01, 2018, 12:43:57 PM
Two factors played into this IMO: 1) the use of a referendum and 2) a political system that hands power to a government that doesn't actually have the support of a popular majority.

Q

Those are certainly two of the biggest problems. We' re not used to referendums in the UK, so the result is being treated as if it were sacred and immutable, and must therefore not be challenged. No-one would even think of treating general elections this way: when we've had one election we don't say that the result is the "will of the people" and therefore no opposition to the government can be tolerated. We then have another election after a while and if the public has had a change of view and wants someone else in power, they can vote for that.

The voting system is definitely a factor. Only about 20% of seats are marginals, which means that in the other 80% it's pretty much a foregone conclusion which party will win the seat. That effectively disenfranchises millions upon millions of people. Many people voted for the first time in their lives in the referendum because their vote carried as much weight as everyone else's: there was no safe seat/marginal factor at work. You might think this would mean we should adopt PR for general elections, but we're still told that we need FPTP to provide "strong government". Though that argument is wearing a bit thin given the events of the last few years in general and the current farce in particular.

The other factor to add to the two you mention is a media landscape which has been heavily dominated by the right for decades, and consequently a population which has been systematically misled and misinformed, not least on the subject of Europe. The relentless drip-drip effect has done its work.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 01, 2018, 09:48:10 PM
Yes, my vote doesn't count in general elections. The government won't want another referendum though because then Scotland will want another independence referendum on the grounds that they voted against Brexit and want to remain in the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 02, 2018, 04:09:25 AM
Quote from: 2dogs on December 01, 2018, 09:48:10 PM
Yes, my vote doesn't count in general elections. The government won't want another referendum though because then Scotland will want another independence referendum on the grounds that they voted against Brexit and want to remain in the EU.

Yes, quite true.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 02, 2018, 03:45:27 PM
Quote from: 2dogs on December 01, 2018, 09:48:10 PM
The government won't want another referendum though because then Scotland will want another independence referendum on the grounds that they voted against Brexit and want to remain in the EU.

The SNP has been calling for a second independence referendum on precisely those grounds since the 2016 referendum. A second EU referendum producing the same result as the first - Scotland voting by a big margin for remain but an overall vote to leave - would certainly cement the case for another independence referendum, especially if it looked as though we were heading for an even harder Brexit than May's deal. That would strengthen the economic as well as the political case for independence, since staying in the UK would be at least as risky as independence and arguably more so. However, a second EU referendum resulting in a vote to remain would weaken the economic case for a second independence referendum, since staying in the UK would mean staying in the EU, a much safer option.

So, a second EU vote resulting in a vote to remain weakens the case for indyref2, while a second leave win just reinforces what is already SNP policy. I therefore don't think the government is especially bothered about a second EU referendum because of the Scottish question - in fact they don't seem to give a shit about Scotland anyway. If anything, they've already strengthened both the political and economic case for Scottish independence by signing up to a deal with the EU which may well put Scotland at a disadvantage with respect to Northern Ireland. The SNP is already saying that if specific arrangements can be made for NI to keep an open border, why can't something similar be done for Scotland, especially given Scotland's substantial pro-remain vote? They have a point, but there's not a snowball's chance in hell of the Tories agreeing to anything like that.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on December 03, 2018, 04:22:03 AM
Thanks for that interesting analysis, Mr. Minnow. 

The possibility of a second referendum seems to hove more realistically into view with recent manoeuvres, but these are nervy times, as I imagine if it does ever happen, a more decisive vote the 'wrong' way will be not only economically, but also pyschologically self-destructive, taking us spiralling down a reactionary, proto-nationalist rabbit hole from which we are unlikely to extricate ourselves in my lifetime. Perhaps I over imagine, I hope I do.

Of course the relief of the result going the 'right' way would be considerable, though not without problems of course, there would be lots of justifiably angry people, but I have no confidence that that's a likely outcome.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 03, 2018, 05:47:21 AM
If any government ever dared to have a referendum on anything ever again they'd need more choices e.g.
- Stay in the EU as before
- Leave with no deal
- Various options for leaving only partially or in name only.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 03, 2018, 09:02:45 AM
Quote from: 2dogs on December 03, 2018, 05:47:21 AM
If any government ever dared to have a referendum on anything ever again they'd need more choices e.g.
- Stay in the EU as before
- Leave with no deal
- Various options for leaving only partially or in name only.

Rationally, these are the options:

1. Remaing in the EU
2. "Norway-plus": remaining in the internal market & the customs union.
3. "Norway": remaining in the internal market and closing trade deals with the rest of the world, but with Northern Ireland remaining in the customs union.
4. "Canada": a free trade deal with the EU (and the rest of the world),  but with NI remaining in the customs union and in partial alignment with the internal market.
5. No deal.

A system of a "transferable vote", consisting of the possibility of chosing two options in order of preference, would be best.

Q

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 03, 2018, 04:56:43 PM
Quote from: Iota on December 03, 2018, 04:22:03 AM
Thanks for that interesting analysis, Mr. Minnow. 

The possibility of a second referendum seems to hove more realistically into view with recent manoeuvres, but these are nervy times, as I imagine if it does ever happen, a more decisive vote the 'wrong' way will be not only economically, but also pyschologically self-destructive, taking us spiralling down a reactionary, proto-nationalist rabbit hole from which we are unlikely to extricate ourselves in my lifetime. Perhaps I over imagine, I hope I do.

Of course the relief of the result going the 'right' way would be considerable, though not without problems of course, there would be lots of justifiably angry people, but I have no confidence that that's a likely outcome.

Sadly, we appear to be hurtling down that rabbit hole at an alarming rate. I just cannot see a scenario in which this crisis ends well. If Brexit is averted by a vote to remain in another referendum, the likes of Farage will scream betrayal and tell us how great Brexit would have been if the country hadn't been stabbed in the back by "saboteur remoaners" (the "stab in the back" myth being a classic trope of right wing nationalism, especially that little Austrian fella with the funny tash). It won't matter how strong the evidence to the contrary is, we'll be told that the "liberal metropolitan elite" has conspired to rob the people of their beloved Brexit (even if that "elite" consists of more than half the country voting in a referendum), and of course if the blessed Nigel and his ilk had been in charge they would have "got tough with Brussels" to show them that "Britain means Business", etc.. There is probably no shortage of people willing to believe this cobblers, given that even now, with the abundant evidence of just what a shambles Brexit is shaping up to be - even on the government's own forecasts - the polls show another referendum would be too close to call.

So, perhaps the only way out is to let Brexit happen so that the inevitable shitshow unfolds and leave voters realise they've been had? Except that when Brexit proves not to be the ticket to the sunlit uplands that it was sold as, and exacerbates rather than solves the problems that led to the leave vote in the first place, the reaction of the Brexiteers will still be to blame everyone but themselves. Admittedly it would be easier to do that if no agreement had been reached with the EU, but if we get a no deal Brexit because the Commons votes the deal down, or we get some other deal that the Brexiters don't like, they'll still try to claim that the ensuing crisis is down to EU intransigence, remainers, the civil service, experts and the countless other scapegoats they use to deflect attention away from their own failings. Don't hold your breath for them to put out a detailed and properly thought through plan of their own - if they did that they might have to take some responsibility and the fact they have no clue how to turn their "vision" into reality would be much more obvious to those who voted for them. Much easier, and safer,  to cry betrayal from the safety of the backbenches.

Either way, it's hard to see how we can flush the nationalist turd out of UK politics in the foreseeable future.   


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 03, 2018, 09:48:34 PM
A gloomy picture....  ::)

And the wave of discontent of the middle class, that fed into Trump and Brexit is unfortunately to be seen all over the Western world.

Paris yesterday:

(https://static.euronews.com/articles/stories/03/45/69/52/880x495_cmsv2_0883c52a-0860-5c88-8977-ef5ecb48efd4-3456952.jpg)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on December 04, 2018, 01:13:56 AM
Quote from: Que on December 03, 2018, 09:48:34 PM
A gloomy picture....  ::)

And the wave of discontent of the middle class, that fed into Trump and Brexit is unfortunately to be seen all over the Western world.

Paris yesterday:

(https://static.euronews.com/articles/stories/03/45/69/52/880x495_cmsv2_0883c52a-0860-5c88-8977-ef5ecb48efd4-3456952.jpg)

Q

As far as I know the Gilets Jaunes haven't expressed any ideas usually linked with the right. On the contrary, they seem to be demanding greater equality, fairer redistribution.

I'm going to buy a fluorescent yellow sleeveless jacket I think, I'm with them!

The difference between Thatcher and Macron is this. When Thatcher robbed the working class of their hard won social benefits, she sweetened the pill by letting them buy cheaply their state owned house, and letting them buy cheaply some shares in privatisations, so they felt rich. What a swiz! Macron thinks he can just remove the rights the workers have acquired since the war, and that they'll doff their caps and tug their forelocks. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 05, 2018, 04:38:16 PM
Quote from: Que on December 01, 2018, 12:43:57 PM
But instead the UK notified its withdrawal from the EU without any such domestic political agreement. Two factors played into this IMO: 1) the use of a referendum and 2) a political system that hands power to a government that doesn't actually have the support of a popular majority.

Q

There is another factor in this, concerning the use of a referendum, which I think is probably unprecedented in British politics. Whoever wins a general election is expected to implement the promises they make during the campaign, or risk paying a political price for not doing so. But the referendum has created a situation in which the people on the winning side who made promises during the campaign are, for the most part, not the ones who will have to implement them. The likes of Farage, Daniel Hannan and Gisela Stuart aren't even in the Commons let alone in government, Davis and Johnson both resigned (as indeed did Raab), and even people like Rees-Mogg and Owen Paterson are only backbenchers. So the referendum created a situation in which many of the leading Brexit campaigners could - and most certainly did - make whatever absurd promises they liked, safe in the knowledge that they wouldn't have to take the slightest bit of responsibility for implementing them. That would be left to others, who could then be denounced as betrayers of Brexit for not living up to the required standards of ideological purity. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 05, 2018, 10:00:41 PM
Johnson stood for Conservative leader though (did Davis too?) so would presumably have seen the process through as PM leading a government of other Leave ministers. Ministers have to resign when they can't accept the policies of the PM and want to speak out or vote against them.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 06, 2018, 03:46:07 AM
Quote from: 2dogs on December 05, 2018, 10:00:41 PM
Johnson stood for Conservative leader though (did Davis too?) so would presumably have seen the process through as PM leading a government of other Leave ministers. Ministers have to resign when they can't accept the policies of the PM and want to speak out or vote against them.

They had a choice of taking responsibility for seeing it through or resigning to cry betrayal from the sidelines. They chose the latter rather than admit to the electorate what they'd been warned of all along, that the promises they'd made were an undeliverable fantasy. Much easier to sit on the backbenches and blame others for failing to keep promises that the Brexiters themselves had made but which they knew could never be kept. 

And of course there was never much danger of Farage (the most important of all the Brexiters), Hannan, Duncan Smith, Rees-Mogg, Stuart etc. having to take any responsibility for what they'd promised.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 06, 2018, 04:04:16 AM
It does seem a bit odd though that the Conservative MPs, while saying they respected the result of the referendum, in electing a new leader to implement the Leave decision should have chosen a Remain supporter.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 06, 2018, 05:32:09 AM
Quote from: 2dogs on December 06, 2018, 04:04:16 AM
It does seem a bit odd though that the Conservative MPs, while saying they respected the result of the referendum, in electing a new leader to implement the Leave decision should have chosen a Remain supporter.

May won the leadership by default. Gove stabbed Johnson in the back but in doing so bolstered his reputation as an untrustworthy snake. The likes of Fox were seen as too far to the right. That just left Leadsom, who is not the sharpest tool in the box to put it mildly - even a lot of Brexit-supporting Tory MPs thought she'd be a disaster. By contrast, May seemed a much safer pair of hands at the time, having survived six years at the Home Office, which is far longer than most Home Secretaries last. And although she did support remain, she was almost invisible during the referendum campaign, so the Brexiters viewed her as a reluctant rather than ardent remainer (probably rightly). Of course, her shortcomings as a leader are now painfully clear for all to see, but back then she was being hyped by the Tory press and some MPs as Thatcher Mk.II.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: zamyrabyrd on December 06, 2018, 06:08:38 AM
I am out of the loop of the discussion but thought this was hilarious:

https://www.youtube.com/v/Y3LmacgHDKQ/
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Pat B on December 06, 2018, 09:02:49 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on December 06, 2018, 05:32:09 AM
Gove stabbed Johnson in the back

That's assuming Johnson actually wanted to be the PM who would have to implement Brexit (as opposed to the PM after that).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 06, 2018, 09:41:45 AM
Quote from: Pat B on December 06, 2018, 09:02:49 AM
That's assuming Johnson actually wanted to be the PM who would have to implement Brexit (as opposed to the PM after that).

Whatever Johnson wanted, Gove had been one of his supporters before, erm, "wrestling with his conscience" and "reluctantly" deciding that he'd be a better leader than Johnson.  It was pretty two-faced by any measure, even though few would shed tears on Johnson's behalf.

I don't think either Johnson or Gove wanted to be the PM implementing Brexit. Their demeanour at a press conference the day after the referendum was priceless - far from sporting triumphant smiles the looks on their faces screamed "oh shit, we're actually going to have to do this now".  The strategy had been that there would be a narrow win for remain, leaving Johnson to sweep the Tory leadership by picking up the Brexit torch. Then Leave won and it all went pear-shaped. Even Gove's wife was quoted as saying "you were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off".
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 08, 2018, 01:54:48 AM
Jeremy Corbyn: Labour's Brexit deal would have no backstop (https://www.euronews.com/2018/12/07/corbyn-interview) (Euronews)

Delusions or blatant lies....

The man has therefore either no brains or no shame....  ::)

I guess the scenario in which Labour picks up the pieces and saves the day, is now off the table?  ???

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 08, 2018, 05:02:37 AM
I think if a 2nd referendum would go through with three options:
1. the negotiated deal
2. no deal
3. remaining in the EU

And voters would be a preferential vote and a secondary vote,  none of the options would be the preffered option of a majority of voters but May's deal would everybody's 2nd choice.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 08, 2018, 06:11:44 AM
They have a very wise saying in Yorkshire - If in doubt, do nowt :-\.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 08, 2018, 05:20:34 PM
Quote from: Que on December 08, 2018, 01:54:48 AM
I guess the scenario in which Labour picks up the pieces and saves the day, is now off the table?  ???

Q

I've given up taking much notice of what anyone at Westminster is saying at the moment. The aftermath of the vote on Tuesday evening will be when the dam bursts and we'll begin to get a clearer idea of what each of the various groups in the Commons really thinks as decisions have to be made. That's assuming May doesn't delay the vote of course - there are rumours that she will, though it's hard to see what could be achieved by doing so. May has apparently denied these rumours, which on past form means they're probably true.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 08, 2018, 08:50:55 PM
She is now desperate to the point of telling MPs it is her deal or the chance of Labour winning a general election - well "Jeremy Corbyn" portrayed as someone with no interest beyond a ruthless desire for power >:D.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 10, 2018, 03:47:53 AM
https://www.youtube.com/v/Tjp5OmoDYQM
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 10, 2018, 04:43:00 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on December 10, 2018, 03:47:53 AM
https://www.youtube.com/v/Tjp5OmoDYQM
Brilliant!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 10, 2018, 07:09:32 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on December 08, 2018, 05:20:34 PM
That's assuming May doesn't delay the vote of course - there are rumours that she will, though it's hard to see what could be achieved by doing so. May has apparently denied these rumours, which on past form means they're probably true.

The rumours were true ::).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on December 10, 2018, 11:46:20 AM
Spineless, no vision, just greedy for position.

Like the lot of them.

What a mess.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on December 10, 2018, 11:50:44 AM
Quote from: 2dogs on December 08, 2018, 08:50:55 PM
She is now desperate to the point of telling MPs it is her deal or the chance of Labour winning a general election - well "Jeremy Corbyn" portrayed as someone with no interest beyond a ruthless desire for power >:D.

May would recognize such a person immediately.
Like watching in a mirror.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on December 11, 2018, 12:55:25 PM
Quote from: Marc on December 10, 2018, 11:46:20 AM
Spineless, no vision, just greedy for position.

Like the lot of them.

What a mess.

Quoted for truth.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 12, 2018, 01:04:19 AM
All going smoothly here today.  ???
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 12, 2018, 05:09:46 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on December 12, 2018, 01:04:19 AM
All going smoothly here today.  ???

The history of the human race proceeding as ever - people are social enough to form groups and anti social enough to compete with other groups ::).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on December 12, 2018, 05:51:41 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on December 12, 2018, 01:04:19 AM
All going smoothly here today.  ???

Swimmingly would be appropriate, what with the PM at sea, MPs hurrying into the lifeboats and pirates readying to board the vessel only to sink it after the killing.

Posting a picture of Delacroix' famous painting would be entirely fitting, but a cartoon version is more like it, I think:

(http://img.over-blog-kiwi.com/1/23/84/75/obpic1E8XHU.jpeg)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 12, 2018, 07:12:37 AM
Quote from: André on December 12, 2018, 05:51:41 AM
Swimmingly would be appropriate, what with the PM at sea, MPs hurrying into the lifeboats and pirates readying to board the vessel only to sink it after the killing.

Posting a picture of Delacroix' famous painting would be entirely fitting, but a cartoon version is more like it, I think:

(http://img.over-blog-kiwi.com/1/23/84/75/obpic1E8XHU.jpeg)

Excellent Andre! I've always regarded Gericault's 'The Raft of the Medusa' as an appropriate metaphor for my life (hanging on by my fingertips etc)  8). I like the Asterix version if I've got that right.

Today someone on TV commented that Theresa May is drowning and Angela Merkel is throwing buckets of water at her.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 12, 2018, 12:02:07 PM
May remains as PM - so back to square one ::).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on December 12, 2018, 12:15:20 PM
Quote from: 2dogs on December 12, 2018, 12:02:07 PM
May remains as PM - so back to square one ::).

May remains, No Mexit, then...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 12, 2018, 05:09:47 PM
(https://img.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeed-static/static/2016-07/10/9/asset/buzzfeed-prod-fastlane02/sub-buzz-16813-1468158400-1.png?downsize=700:*&output-format=auto&output-quality=auto)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DsDBP8sXcAMP_Qi.jpg)

Whoops.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on December 12, 2018, 07:23:38 PM
Brexit is bad for the UK and for the EU.
Still, the soft Brexit that May and the EU have negociated is probably the least bad deal at the moment.

IMHO, there is no room for victory feelings of whatever kind for the opposition, at whatever moment. Labour is as divided as the Conservative Party. And Corbyn, like May, is just another opportunistic weather vane.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 12, 2018, 09:29:53 PM
Two out of three cheers for Theresa May ;).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 12, 2018, 10:03:58 PM
Quote from: Marc on December 12, 2018, 07:23:38 PM
Brexit is bad for the UK and for the EU.
Still, the soft Brexit that May and the EU have negociated is probably the least bad deal at the moment.

IMHO, there is no room for victory feelings of whatever kind for the opposition, at whatever moment. Labour is as divided as the Conservative Party. And Corbyn, like May, is just another opportunistic weather vane.

I agree that a soft Brexit is probably the best we can hope for now although Remain is my preferred option. The Daily Mirror headline today is 'Lame Duck for Christmas'.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on December 13, 2018, 12:31:21 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on December 12, 2018, 10:03:58 PM
I agree that a soft Brexit is probably the best we can hope for now although Remain is my preferred option. The Daily Mirror headline today is 'Lame Duck for Christmas'.
Well, IMO the UK being the lame duck.....
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 13, 2018, 04:00:59 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on December 12, 2018, 10:03:58 PM
I agree that a soft Brexit is probably the best we can hope for now although Remain is my preferred option. The Daily Mirror headline today is 'Lame Duck for Christmas'.

I don't know what conspiracies or hidden agendas might be in progress but I wonder if Labour took the stance that a General Election in which they promised in their manifesto to Remain if elected, then won, could they claim that had effectively been a second referendum?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 13, 2018, 05:07:59 AM
Quote from: 2dogs on December 13, 2018, 04:00:59 AM
I don't know what conspiracies or hidden agendas might be in progress but I wonder if Labour took the stance that a General Election in which they promised in their manifesto to Remain if elected, then won, could they claim that had effectively been a second referendum?

Possibly, but a general election still looks unlikely. After yesterday's farce, the only way I can see an election happening is if the ERG are willing to vote against May if/when Labour tables a motion of no confidence, which is most likely to happen when her deal is voted down in January. It's not impossible, as they can't launch another Tory leadership challenge for a year, so a no confidence vote in the Commons is their only way of getting rid of her, but I'd be surprised if enough of them would be willing to do that. It's also unlikely the DUP would vote against the government in such a vote.

If we don't get an election then the options are no deal, Canada, Norway or a referendum. There is a huge majority against no deal in the Commons, so most MPs will do everything they can to stop that happening. There's no majority for a Canada-type deal either. Whether a Norway-type deal could pass is doubtful, but even if it could, it's by no means certain that the EFTA countries would want us to join at all, and they certainly won't allow us to use EFTA as a temporary stop gap before we bugger off for something else.

Since there's no majority for no deal or Canada, and Norway looks unlikely, that just leaves a referendum as the most likely option once May's deal is rejected in the Commons. A remain win would be far from guaranteed, so it's very risky, but it may be the only option left.


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 13, 2018, 05:55:34 AM
It does sound risky but your analysis makes sense so if that happens I just hope the actual facts can be properly presented this time.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 13, 2018, 07:46:54 AM
Quote from: 2dogs on December 13, 2018, 05:55:34 AM
It does sound risky but your analysis makes sense so if that happens I just hope the actual facts can be properly presented this time.

That's the bit that worries me.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on December 13, 2018, 08:00:07 AM
Can someone explain to a yankee what the "backstop" is and why it is an issue.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 13, 2018, 11:23:48 AM
Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on December 13, 2018, 08:00:07 AM
Can someone explain to a yankee what the "backstop" is and why it is an issue.

It's complicated, but it boils down to this: it's essentially an insurance policy designed to ensure that under no circumstances will there be a return to a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. At present the UK and Ireland are both EU members so both operate under the same rules, i.e. the EU customs union and single market, so no checks between the two are required. That obviously changes when (if?) the UK leaves the EU: after Brexit, the UK and Ireland will no longer be part of the same customs jurisdiction, or the same system of rules and regulations on issues such as food standards, product specifications, etc.. There would therefore need to be border checks to ensure that goods moving from one jurisdiction to the other meet the other's standards. That would cause economic disruption and would also be hugely damaging to the Good Friday Agreement.

It's hoped that the border problem will be dealt with by a future EU-UK trade agreement. However, there is no guarantee that this will happen, especially as the Tory Brexiters want to diverge from EU rules significantly. If no such agreement is reached by the end of the transition period (31st December 2020) - and virtually no-one thinks an agreement can be reached by then - the backstop kicks in.

The backstop is controversial because it specifies that in order to solve the border problem in the absence of a trade agreement, the whole of the UK would stay in a "single customs territory" with the EU - the EU customs union in all but name. Northern Ireland would also stay aligned to some single market regulations in order to facilitate the maintenance of cross border trade. The Tory Brexiters want out of both the customs union and single market, so they hate the backstop. The DUP, which is propping up the Tories in the Commons, objects to anything which sees Northern Ireland treated differently to the rest of the UK, and since it's only Northern Ireland which would stay aligned to parts of the single market, they're not happy either: if NI is still part of elements of the single market while the rest of the UK is not, there would have to be checks on goods entering NI from the rest of the UK to check that they meet single market rules, which as far as the DUP and many Tories are concerned amounts to creating a border in the Irish sea (it's for that reason that the UK rejected the EU's original plan, that of keeping only NI in the customs union).

The Tory Brexiters and the DUP are demanding that the backstop is either time-limited, or is changed to allow the UK to leave it unilaterally. That is completely unacceptable to Ireland and the EU, since the backstop is supposed to prevent a hard border in all circumstances. Clearly, if it's time-limited or the UK could walk away from it whenever it liked, it would not cover all circumstances and would hence not really be a backstop at all.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on December 13, 2018, 01:05:43 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on December 13, 2018, 11:23:48 AM
It's complicated, ...

Oh lord, and you Brits were thinking about all that when you went to the referendum?

We had it easy. Make America Great Again, yes or no.

Fine print: when exactly was American "Great?" Are we rolling back to 1789?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 13, 2018, 03:27:37 PM
Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on December 13, 2018, 01:05:43 PM
Oh lord, and you Brits were thinking about all that when you went to the referendum?

Well, some of us knew the Irish border would cause all sorts of problems in the event of a vote to leave, but it was barely mentioned during the campaign, and on the rare occasions it did come up, the Brexiters dismissed any concerns expressed as scaremongering. A few pages back in this thread I posted a quote from an interview with Farage in which he admitted not having given the Irish border a moment's thought.

QuoteWe had it easy. Make America Great Again, yes or no.

Substitute "Take Back Control" for "Make America Great Again" and you pretty much have the level of debate during the referendum campaign. Both phrases worked because they meant sod all, and hence could be taken to mean whatever people wanted them to mean.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on December 13, 2018, 09:15:41 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on December 13, 2018, 03:27:37 PM
[...]
Substitute "Take Back Control" for "Make America Great Again" and you pretty much have the level of debate during the referendum campaign. Both phrases worked because they meant sod all, and hence could be taken to mean whatever people wanted them to mean.

Indeed.
Like NO STRAIGHT BANANAS!

Now that May keeps on returning with 'nothing' from Brussels, a second referendum, if it's gonna happen in 2019, will turn out to be an ever greater victory for the Brexiteers (I fear).
"Sod all!"
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 13, 2018, 11:21:44 PM
David 'I don't quit' Cameron is responsible for this shambles in my opinion.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on December 13, 2018, 11:49:27 PM
Quote from: vandermolen on December 13, 2018, 11:21:44 PM
David 'I don't quit' Cameron is responsible for this shambles in my opinion.

Yep.

Quote from: Marc on November 15, 2018, 02:59:12 AM
[...]
The idiot Cameron caused some major maham, with his great referendum.
Gambling with other people's money and jobs, completely misjudging the odds, all of it leading to nothing but useless fights.

And his successor(s) just fighting for power... again without any idea about other people's money and jobs. Hurrah!

But I guess mr. Cameron doesn't feel sorry for anything, and still thinks that the referendum was a good idea.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 14, 2018, 12:19:08 AM
Quote from: Marc on December 13, 2018, 11:49:27 PM
Yep.

I'm sure that his forthcoming memoirs will be a massive exercise in self-justification.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on December 14, 2018, 12:52:42 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on December 14, 2018, 12:19:08 AM
I'm sure that his forthcoming memoirs will be a massive exercise in self-justification.

Yep! :laugh:

(Just like us, in a way. ;))
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 14, 2018, 01:31:31 AM
Quote from: Marc on December 14, 2018, 12:52:42 AM
Yep! :laugh:

(Just like us, in a way. ;))
Indeed!
:)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on December 14, 2018, 09:54:12 AM
Another question from a Yank that is only partially relevant

What is the exact meaning of "backbencher".  I always understood it to mean an MP who was no a member of the government or party leadership. 
Am I wrong in that?
Jacob of the House of Reesmogg sparked my question, when I heard him on NPR demanding that May resign because one third of the Tory MPs voted against her.  He said that this third was a "majority of the backbenchers".   
If you do the math, that means that roughly a third of Tory MPs are not backbenchers (Frontbenchers, perhaps), which seems to be too many.  But I don't know enough to be sure.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on December 14, 2018, 10:16:33 AM
The definition of backbencher is correct. The number of MPs with some responsibilities may vary considerably. For example, most cabinet ministers have a right arm MP, variously called assistant, attaché or some other denomination. In the UK House of Commons, it's a Parliamentary Secretary. They are not members of the cabinet, but are considered junior ministers. Their number cannot exceed 36. They get paid more because of their additional duties in parliament. Backbencher's responsibilities are normally restricted to the riding they represent.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on December 14, 2018, 10:21:02 AM
Quote from: André on December 14, 2018, 10:16:33 AM...Backbencher's responsibilities are normally restricted to the riding they represent.

"Riding," that's one of those "Britishisms" that sounds charming to a Yankee ear. My favourite is the fact that in Canada prosecutors "lay charges" while American prosecutors "press charges." American prosecutors are so much more obnoxious, judging by the sound of it. :)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on December 14, 2018, 12:02:33 PM
Thanks. Now it merely remains to ask if Sir Jacob of Reesmogg's claim was correct. (I go on the assumption thar Sir Jacob of Reesmogg achieves Trumpian levels of veracity.)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 14, 2018, 03:54:26 PM
Quote from: JBS on December 14, 2018, 12:02:33 PM
Thanks. Now it merely remains to ask if Sir Jacob of Reesmogg's claim was correct. (I go on the assumption thar Sir Jacob of Reesmogg achieves Trumpian levels of veracity.)

His claim may be correct if he was excluding all those MPs who have any sort of role in government right down to the most junior and insignificant levels. He kept referring to MPs "on the government payroll" so I assume this is what he meant.

He's certainly right in saying that this was a blow to May's authority (what was left of it), but it's also clearly true that the ERG screwed it up, as there now can't be a Tory leadership election for at least a year (unless she goes of her own accord of course). There was a certain degree of irony in watching the man who criticises remainers for not accepting the referendum result call for May to resign even though his side had just lost.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on December 14, 2018, 04:11:06 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on December 14, 2018, 03:54:26 PM
His claim may be correct if he was excluding all those MPs who have any sort of role in government right down to the most junior and insignificant levels. He kept referring to MPs "on the government payroll" so I assume this is what he meant.

He's certainly right in saying that this was a blow to May's authority (what was left of it), but it's also clearly true that the ERG screwed it up, as there now can't be a Tory leadership election for at least a year (unless she goes of her own accord of course). There was a certain degree of irony in watching the man who criticises remainers for not accepting the referendum result call for May to resign even though his side had just lost.

In fact, in the clip I heard, Sir Jacob of ReesMogg seems to assert that May actually lost the no confidence vote even though she won it.

No wonder Trump loves him.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 14, 2018, 09:22:48 PM
Since we entered the Post Truth era the BBC News has been including a Reality Check section in which they explain the actual facts  :-\.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on December 16, 2018, 05:49:17 AM
Coming out next month, a TV series about the Brexit referendum, with Benedict Cumbersome. I wonder if there is a real audience for that. I mean, apart from rubbing salt into old and current wounds...,

Spoiler alert: Benedict's hairline has receded a lot.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 16, 2018, 07:42:14 AM
Quote from: JBS on December 14, 2018, 04:11:06 PM
In fact, in the clip I heard, Sir Jacob of ReesMogg seems to assert that May actually lost the no confidence vote even though she won it.

In that case it's as I thought: he's saying that the votes of MPs on the government payroll don't really count, as they'd be expected to vote for the PM. It's hardly convincing, not least because it's a secret ballot, so even cabinet ministers can profess undying loyalty in public and then vote differently in the polling booth. It seems to be almost a tradition for Tory MPs to do that in a leadership vote, and the fact that it makes them look like a bunch of duplicitous shits doesn't appear to bother them in the slightest.

QuoteNo wonder Trump loves him.

For all the cosmetic differences, Rees-Mogg is quite similar to Trump, as is Johnson for that matter. All three of them have adopted the persona of the "man of the people" leading a grass roots anti-establishment insurgency against the hated out of touch elite - despite the fact that all three of them were born into a life of wealth and privilege, are in no danger of ever experiencing anything else, and are therefore very much a part of the establishment they claim to despise.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 17, 2018, 05:40:21 AM
I gather that David 'I'm not a quitter' Cameron is now advising Theresa May, so we are saved after all!
::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 17, 2018, 06:04:22 AM
I think the last PM whose promise actually came true was Gordon Brown with "an end to boom and bust" - we have certainly not had another boom since ::).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 17, 2018, 07:54:18 AM
When's Theresa May going to release an album anyway?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 17, 2018, 01:01:35 PM
Quote from: 2dogs on December 17, 2018, 07:54:18 AM
When's Theresa May going to release an album anyway?
What a ghastly CD!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on December 17, 2018, 11:30:49 PM
I just saw on the BBC web site that the Conservative Government is now considering the dumpster fire plan (No Deal Brexit).

???
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 18, 2018, 01:22:42 AM
It's a mind boggling spectacle....  ???  The political implosion in slow motion of a dying empire...

I still think May's deal will come through in the end....

Just because it is the only option that is remotely acceptable to a majority in parliament.

A political deadlock however, could either lead to an accidental no deal situation... or to a last minute retraction of the exit notification. But who would risk to defy the referendum result?  ::)

I feel that whatever happens the political crisis will continue.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 18, 2018, 02:31:57 AM
Quote from: Que on December 18, 2018, 01:22:42 AM
It's a mind boggling spectacle....  ???  The political implosion in slow motion of a dying empire...

I still think May's deal will come through in the end....

Just because it is the only option that is remotely acceptable to a majority in parliament.

I think she needs a miracle to get her deal through. 117 of her own MPs were willing to vote against her in a no confidence vote. If they were willing to do that it's hard to see many of them voting for her deal. It also looks highly unlikely that the DUP will vote for it either. The only way it passes is if Labour bails her out by voting for it and there appears to be very little if any chance of that. There was real anger from Labour MPs yesterday - including from those who are no friends of Corbyn - who accused May of deliberately running the clock down to bounce MPs into backing her deal.

QuoteA political deadlock however, could either lead to an accidental no deal situation... or to a last minute retraction of the exit notification.

Asking for an extension of article 50 is looking more likely by the day. The consequences of a no deal situation would be so severe that any government would face an uphill struggle to survive, to put it mildly. Trying to blame it all on the EU might work for a bit, but sooner or later (probably sooner) public anger would be directed at those in power. Polls consistently show that most of the public think the government has handled the negotiations badly, and even if May's "resilience" is admired by some that's not likely to count for much once the consequences of no deal really start to bite. No one wants to be in power when that happens.

QuoteBut who would risk to defy the referendum result?  ::)

It shouldn't be seen as defying the referendum result, though I'm sure that's how it will be spun. May's deal is light years away form the cake and unicorns Brexit promised two years ago and the Brexiters have never bothered to produce a properly thought through plan of their own.

QuoteI feel that whatever happens the political crisis will continue.

Q

No douibt about that. There are many possible ways this could play out, but all of them leave a substantial portion of the public feeling angry.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 18, 2018, 03:52:25 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on December 18, 2018, 02:31:57 AM
I think she needs a miracle to get her deal through. 117 of her own MPs were willing to vote against her in a no confidence vote. If they were willing to do that it's hard to see many of them voting for her deal. It also looks highly unlikely that the DUP will vote for it either. The only way it passes is if Labour bails her out by voting for it and there appears to be very little if any chance of that. There was real anger from Labour MPs yesterday - including from those who are no friends of Corbyn - who accused May of deliberately running the clock down to bounce MPs into backing her deal.

Yes, MP's are angry about the way May tries to force their hand in accepting a deal that nobody likes (for wildly diverse reasons), but none of them is able to come up with a viable alternative solution. And that notably includes Corbyn cs....
One suggestion is to hold a succession of votes in parliament on all the possible options (Norway (plus), Canada, no deal, etc.) Even if that would render a result, that would mean a lot of renegotiation. My estimate is that the EU will stick to its plan of an exit deal now, and move the negotiations of a future relationship forward. It would basically mean a blind Brexit with a NI backstop.
The only clean way out of this mess is a referendum with a clear majority in favour of remaining in the EU, but what is the likelihood of that?

QuoteAsking for an extension of article 50 is looking more likely by the day. The consequences of a no deal situation would be so severe that any government would face an uphill struggle to survive, to put it mildly. Trying to blame it all on the EU might work for a bit, but sooner or later (probably sooner) public anger would be directed at those in power. Polls consistently show that most of the public think the government has handled the negotiations badly, and even if May's "resilience" is admired by some that's not likely to count for much once the consequences of no deal really start to bite. No one wants to be in power when that happens.

Apart from a new referendum, the EU might agree to an extension if no other options are left except, for a no deal, hard Brexit. This will only become clear at the last hour. I don't think it would be willing to facilitate any political procrastination.....

QuoteIt shouldn't be seen as defying the referendum result, though I'm sure that's how it will be spun. May's deal is light years away form the cake and unicorns Brexit promised two years ago and the Brexiters have never bothered to produce a properly thought through plan of their own.

True!  :) But indeed this how it will be perceived and it would amount to political suicide by consequence. But perhaps there is an old grandee that could lead a coalition of the willing from the backbenches?

QuoteNo doubt about that. There are many possible ways this could play out, but all of them leave a substantial portion of the public feeling angry.

This is what has suprised me the most. Two years of greater clarity on the choice whether to leave the EU or not, hasn't led to any evolving opinions - the trenches have only been dug deeper and deeper.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on December 18, 2018, 04:08:43 AM
Which is better, a political deadlock or the current political dreadlocks ?

(https://gfnc1kn6pi-flywheel.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/dreadlock-dog-header.jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 18, 2018, 04:22:58 AM
Quote from: Que on December 18, 2018, 03:52:25 AM
Yes, MP's are angry about the way May tries to force their hand in accepting a deal that nobody likes (for wildly diverse reasons), but none of them is able to come up with a viable alternative solution. And that notably includes Corbyn cs....
One suggestion is to hold a succession of votes in parliament on all the possible options (Norway (plus), Canada, no deal, etc.) Even if that would render a result, that would mean a lot of renegotiation. My estimate is that the EU will stick to its plan of an exit deal now, and move the negotiations of a future relationship forward. It would basically mean a blind Brexit with a NI backstop.
The only clean way out of this mess is a referendum with a clear majority in favour of remaining in the EU, but what is the likelihood of that?

There doesn't seem to be a majority in the Commons for any type of Brexit, nor does there appear to be any prospect of one. There might be a majority for a referendum, especially when May's deal is voted down. Faced with a choice of no deal or a referendum, most MPs will go for the latter. They might be worried about "going against" the 2016 result, but any flak they get from that will be as nothing compared to the public reaction to the consequences of no deal. As you say, the EU has indicated that a referendum is one of the things for which they would be willing to extend Article 50. (Of course, we could just revoke Article 50, since we know from the ECJ ruling that we can do that unilaterally, but I doubt it would happen, and if it did, it would have to be accompanied by a promise of a public vote of some kind.) 

QuoteTrue!  :) But indeed this how it will be perceived and it would amount to political suicide by consequence. But perhaps there is an old grandee that could lead a coalition of the willing from the backbenches?

Taking us over the cliff with a no deal Brexit would be politically suicidal as well though, certainly when the effects started to kick in, which probably wouldn't take long. There really isn't a good option available. Not sure about an old grandee leading a coalition of the willing, though once May's deal has been rejected, what's left of her authority will be completely shot and the various factions in the Commons (some of which cross party lines) will try to take back control, to coin a phrase.

QuoteThis is what has suprised me the most. Two years of greater clarity on the choice whether to leave the EU or not, hasn't led to any evolving opinions - the trenches have only been dug deeper and deeper.

You have to remember the daily diet of bullshit the public has been fed by much of the media. For example: I caught a bit of Sky's review of today's papers last night. One of the articles was a double page spread in the Sun headlined " No deal - no problem!". It was written by Shanker Singham, a prominent Leave supporter who claims to be an expert in international trade but spouts such utter nonsense that he must have graduated from Trump University. Apparently the EU has more to lose than us if we prepare properly for no deal. Yes, really. I've also seen comments from people who think that no deal means we carry on with the status quo. I know it's absurd, but it would seem that there are a lot of people who really do believe this crap.


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 19, 2018, 02:22:06 AM
The anology with the Titanic doesn't stop with the iceberg - the life boats are only available to the passengers that are travelling 1st Class:

Credit Suisse is telling its wealthiest clients to hurry and move their money out of the UK before Brexit (https://www.businessinsider.nl/brexit-uncertainty-pushes-credit-suisse-to-advise-rich-clients-to-shift-assets-from-uk-2018-12/)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on December 19, 2018, 02:38:46 AM
https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/ (https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/)

When Britain's ambassador to the EU quit in 2017, he urged staff to fight "ill-founded arguments and muddled thinking" in government. This week, seeing that there is still quite a bit of this about, Ivan Rogers delivered a speech in Liverpool on "the nine lessons of Brexit", which has rather neatly summarised the flaws, dishonesty and confusion that have characterised Britain's approach to the negotiations. The speech will make uncomfortable reading for both Theresa May, her cabinet and her political opponents, and can be read in full here. At more than 10,000 words, however, it's longer than your average policy brief. For them, and for you, here are Rogers' key points, in digested form.

'Brexit means Brexit'

Rogers points out that the government seems to be expecting the EU to bend its club rules to accommodate the UK. The EU is not going to do this, because its solidarity is with its partners, not with a soon-to-be opponent and rival. When Britain leaves, it really will be leaving, and won't be offered frictionless trade without free movement and the continued jurisdiction of the European court of justice. Neither will it be offered the benefits of membership in return for alignment with EU rules from the outside. He says: "The solidarity of the club members will always be with each other, not with you. We have seen that over the backstop issue over the last 18 months. The 26 supported Dublin, not London. They still do. Nothing the prime minister now bids for will change that."

'Other people have sovereignty too'

The EU will try to maximise its own sovereignty and power where it can, and this will not work to the advantage of the UK. Rogers points out that although not technically bound to follow EU rules after Brexit, even in the event of a hard separation, in reality they will still affect us: "Because in 'taking back control' over our laws and leaving the adjudication and enforcement machinery of what used to be our 'home' market, we are privileging notional autonomy over law – making over real power to set the rules by which in practice we shall be governed, since departure from norms set by others when we are not in the room will in practice greatly constrain our room for manoeuvre."

'Brexit is a process not an event'

The UK underestimated the EU's ability to negotiate, and bought into the fantasy of a quick, easy break. This caused it to make several serious mistakes: triggering article 50 too soon, and giving little serious thought to the adjustment period that would be needed because it assumed a trade deal would be so easy. As Rogers says: "What we needed to do very early on was to recognise the complexity and inevitable longevity of the exit process, work out our viable options, achieve real clarity about where we wanted to land, having worked honestly through the very tough choices we faced – and still do face – and reconcile ourselves to a serious period of transition."

'It is not possible or democratic to argue that only one Brexit destination is true, legitimate and represents the revealed 'will of the people' and that all other potential destinations outside the EU are 'Brexit in name only'.'

Theresa May's model for leaving prioritises ending free movement above other objectives, and frictionless trade in goods above the interest of the UK services sector. But there are many other possible interpretations of the vote.

Rogers says: "Both fervent leavers and fervent remainers as well as No 10 seem to me now to seek to delegitimise a priori every version of the world they don't support."

'If WTO terms or existing EU preferential deals are not good enough for the UK in major third country markets, they can't be good enough for trade with our largest market.'

There is a contradiction at the heart of the argument made by many of those advocating no deal. They say both that WTO terms are good enough for the UK to trade on, and that Britain's prosperity depends on it striking multiple trade deals abroad.

Rogers puts it like this: "You cannot simultaneously argue that it is perfectly fine to leave a deep free trade agreement with easily our largest export and import market for the next generation, and trade on WTO terms because that is how we and others trade with everyone else – and argue that it is imperative we get out of the EU in order that we can strike preferential trade deals with large parts of the rest of the world, because the existing terms on which we trade with the rest of the world are intolerable."

'The huge problem for the UK with either reversion to WTO terms or with a standard free trade deal with the EU is in services'

The UK services industry will suffer greatly under current plans for leaving the EU, because May has emphasised frictionless trade in goods, despite manufacturing representing a far smaller slice of the economy. This is a disaster that not many people are yet talking about, but which will damage the very communities that were promised a Brexit dividend. Rogers says: "Post exit, and post the end of any transitional arrangement, it is UK services exporters who will face the starkest worsening of trade terms because of the substantial difference between how far services trade is liberalised under even the highly imperfect European services single market, and the very best that is achievable under any other form of free trade or regional agreement on the planet."

'Beware all supposed deals bearing 'pluses'. The 'pluses' merely signify that all deficiencies in the named deal will miraculously disappear when we Brits come to negotiate our own version of it.'

Adding "plus" to any deal is merely the expression of a wish, an indication that whatever deal being referred to – Canada, or Norway – has disadvantages that you would ideally like to eliminate. The most mendacious of these coinages is perhaps "no-deal plus" – the idea that walking away will prompt offers of mini side deals on medicines and transport from the EU. Instead, Rogers says: "No developed country has left a trade bloc before, let alone in disorderly fashion, and let alone one which has become a lot more than a trade bloc. But I do fully understand the legal realities. And because so-called 'WTO rules' deliver precisely no continuity in multiple key sectors of the economy, we could expect disruption on a scale and of a length that no one has experienced in the developed world in the last couple of generations."

'You cannot, and should not want to, conduct such a huge negotiation as untransparently as the UK has. And in the end, it does you no good to try.'

The EU has been much better than the UK at transparency during these negotiations. The UK must do better: "You can't possibly run one of the largest and most complex trade negotiations on the planet, and leave most supposed insiders, let alone a much wider public, in the dark about the extremely difficult choices we shall face."

'Real honesty with the public is the best – the only – policy if we are to get to the other side of Brexit with a healthy democracy, a reasonably unified country and a healthy economy.'

The UK government has been opaque to the point of dishonesty, which has allowed all sides to get into the habit of magical thinking and fantastical feats of optimism.

"And even yesterday morning I listened to a shadow cabinet member promising, with a straight face, that, even after a general election, there would be time for Labour to negotiate a completely different deal – including a full trade deal, which would replicate all the advantages of the single market and customs union. And all before 30 March. I assume they haven't yet stopped laughing in Brussels."

What is particularly striking about Rogers' speech is that it hasn't been made before. The flimsy arguments Rogers does away with here have been deployed by our most senior politicians for some two years now. Perhaps as a result, when Rogers's speech was published it was greeted not so much with interest as with a sort of relief – testament to how unmoored from reality the discussions have become. It should serve as a useful blueprint of how the debate should be conducted from now on. But given the problems with our political class Rogers has diagnosed, that in itself would be a miracle.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 22, 2018, 01:01:16 AM
Well, Corbyn has not changed his tune....  ::)

He still wants to leave EU, and no referendum....

And still focused on a customs union (which is included in the negotiated deal BTW),  instead of the much more  economically significant internal market. You know, because of those terrible state aid rules and all that... 

Corbyn: Brexit would go ahead even if Labour won snap election (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/21/jeremy-corbyn-labour-policy-leaving-eu)


Meanwhile, according to a recent poll: Among Labour voters, there is now 72% support for staying in the EU and just 66% of Labour voters who backed Brexit in 2016 would vote Leave in a new referendum.

YouGov Poll Reveals 64% Want Second Brexit Referendum (https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/yougov-poll-reveals-64-want-second-brexit-referendum_uk_5c1b90fee4b05c88b6f5815f)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 22, 2018, 02:15:12 AM
Might Brexiteers, when faced with the clear possibility of new referendum with a popular majority in favour of remaining in the EU, back May's Brexit deal in the end?  ::)

And the same might go for Corbyn, after he discovered he is not going to get that general election?
Mind that he hasn't ruled out supporting the negotiated deal, provided there would be some assurances - whatever those might be. He will counting on winning the next elections anyway... in this way May will have done his dirty work for him..

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on December 22, 2018, 06:27:31 AM
https://www.youtube.com/v/ghcsrblhn7A

Wonderful tune!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 22, 2018, 04:40:31 PM
Quote from: Que on December 22, 2018, 01:01:16 AM
Well, Corbyn has not changed his tune....  ::)

He still wants to leave EU, and no referendum....

And still focused on a customs union (which is included in the negotiated deal BTW),  instead of the much more  economically significant internal market. You know, because of those terrible state aid rules and all that... 

Corbyn: Brexit would go ahead even if Labour won snap election (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/21/jeremy-corbyn-labour-policy-leaving-eu)


Meanwhile, according to a recent poll: Among Labour voters, there is now 72% support for staying in the EU and just 66% of Labour voters who backed Brexit in 2016 would vote Leave in a new referendum.

YouGov Poll Reveals 64% Want Second Brexit Referendum (https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/yougov-poll-reveals-64-want-second-brexit-referendum_uk_5c1b90fee4b05c88b6f5815f)

It's frustrating, but as I said a bit earlier, we aren't going to know what the various factions in the Commons really intend to do until the vote on May's deal is out of the way. If her deal is voted down, as appears highly likely, that will be her moment of maximum vulnerability and hence the logical time for Corbyn to table a motion of no confidence. If May survives that, as she might well, there won't be an election; but if it's also clear that there is no Commons majority for any form of Brexit (also very possible), he could then support another referendum, while arguing that he'd tried all other options and this was the only one left. It's one thing to support a new referendum in those circumstances, when the public may accept that it's the only remaining option for breaking the impasse. It's quite another to support it now, when May's deal has yet to be voted on, and gift the Tories the attack line that he's "sabotaging Brexit". And if he's to follow the policy agreed at Labour's conference, he would have to table the no confidence motion to try to force a general election first, before supporting a new referendum. The problem with that is that if he tables the motion now he'll almost certainly lose it, the Tories will rally around May - as will the DUP - and some of those criticising him for not supporting a referendum now will then criticise him for strengthening May's position.

The crunch point is clearly the vote on May's deal. If it's voted down, and a series of votes makes it clear that no form of Brexit can get through the Commons, that will be the moment when Corbyn has to decide: he either sticks to saying he'd pursue Brexit, or he comes out for a referendum. I think he will do the latter, not least because if he doesn't, the party membership - which is his support base but is also very pro-EU - will desert him in droves. At present there's frustration, but as the vote on May's deal is less than a month away that can probably be contained. But if he doesn't go with the membership's view even if/when a referendum appears to be the only remaining viable option he'll lose his support base, and that will be the beginning of the end for him.


Quote from: Que on December 22, 2018, 02:15:12 AM
Might Brexiteers, when faced with the clear possibility of new referendum with a popular majority in favour of remaining in the EU, back May's Brexit deal in the end?  ::)

I doubt it, not unless the EU gives them the sort of changes to the backstop that they want, and I don't see how that can happen, since they've been calling for the backstop to either be time-limited or have a mechanism which allows the UK to leave it unilaterally. Both the Irish government and the EU have made it clear that those are non-starters. They've also said that no clarifications or assurances can contradict the contents of the withdrawal agreement.

There is apparently a view among some Tories that if they can get the DUP back on board, that would bring a lot of Tory MPs back too, maybe enough to get May's deal through. But the DUP are hardliners and will therefore, like the Tory hardliners, want the sort of change to the backstop which the EU won't offer. And remember, 117 Tory MPs voted against May in the recent no confidence vote. It doesn't need all that many of them to vote against her deal for that deal to be rejected. I certainly can't see the ERG voting for it.   


QuoteAnd the same might go for Corbyn, after he discovered he is not going to get that general election?
Mind that he hasn't ruled out supporting the negotiated deal, provided there would be some assurances - whatever those might be. He will counting on winning the next elections anyway... in this way May will have done his dirty work for him..

I'd be amazed if Corbyn were willing to vote for May's deal in any circumstances. The membership may be frustrated that he hasn't already come out for a referendum, but if he voted for a Tory Brexit that would be it: they'd feel betrayed and he'd be gone shortly thereafter. It would be political suicide. There's no way Labour's six tests can be met: they're nonsense, but they consist (I assume deliberately) largely of claims made by Tory Brexiters like Davis, who said we could retain the exact same benefits of our current trading arrangements with the EU even when we leave.

As for getting a general election, I'm sure he knows that's unlikely. He wouldn't win a no confidence vote now, and while he might win it if he tables it immediately after May's deal is voted down, the odds are still against it. But he still has to try so he can say he tried all other options before concluding that a referendum is the only way out. Labour MPs in seats that voted leave might be more inclined to accept a referendum in those circumstances, whereas right now they wouldn't.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 23, 2018, 02:26:02 AM
Thanks for those insights.  :)

I think the hard Brexiteers had a possible soft Brexit calculated in, but had counted on the opportunity to turn it into a hard Brexit later on. This is why the issue of the whole of the UK being "trapped" into a close relationship with the EU infuriates them and makes this deal so to hard fir them to swallow. This mechanism was an invention by May BTW - probably to appease the DUP - the EU only wants a gararantuee on Northern Ireland. But it will be a dilemma for the Brexiteers, if the alternative is another referendum and possibly no Brexit at all. I think May will use that prospect to pressure them.

A general election wouldn't solve Brexit without Labour being clearly in favour of remaining in the EU. And I agree it's unlikely anyway.

So it seems another referendum is back on the charts as the best way out, now popular opinion has finally shifted in favour of remain. The biggest obstacle for another referendum is May. But a coalition of an united opposition and some Tory rebels might pull it off. Fingers crossed.....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 23, 2018, 03:26:28 PM
Quote from: Que on December 23, 2018, 02:26:02 AM
Thanks for those insights.  :)

I think the hard Brexiteers had a possible soft Brexit calculated in, but had counted on the opportunity to turn it into a hard Brexit later on. This is why the issue of the whole of the UK being "trapped" into a close relationship with the EU infuriates them and makes this deal so to hard fir them to swallow.

I think you're right. I remember reports earlier this year that some Brexiters, Gove among them, were arguing that the most important thing is to make sure the UK leaves in March. After that there won't be an option to remain, we would have to rejoin, which would be much harder. They might also be hoping that once we've actually left, more of the electorate may take the view that since we've started this process we might as well finish it.

There were certainly reports some months ago that people like Gove were saying that as long as we leave in March it doesn't really matter what agreements we come to with the EU - we can rip them up and go off in a different direction once we're out. That would match up with reports last December, after agreement was reached in the first phase of the talks, that Davis was telling the Brexiters that they didn't need to worry about what was in the agreement because it had no legal force. And then they wonder why the EU doesn't trust the UK government. ::)


QuoteThis mechanism was an invention by May BTW - probably to appease the DUP - the EU only wants a gararantuee on Northern Ireland. But it will be a dilemma for the Brexiteers, if the alternative is another referendum and possibly no Brexit at all. I think May will use that prospect to pressure them.

She's already saying to the Brexiters that if they don't support her deal then theres's a risk Brexit might not happen at all (certainly a "risk" I'd be willing to take), while saying to the Tory remainers that if they don't support her deal they risk getting a hard/no deal Brexit.

QuoteSo it seems another referendum is back on the charts as the best way out, now popular opinion has finally shifted in favour of remain

The thing that worries me is just how much opinion has really shifted to remain. There does seem to have been some movement - polls for a while now have had remain ahead by about 53-47 - but that's far too close for comfort for my liking. Some of the most enthusiastic voices calling for a referendum seem to assume that a remain win would be pretty much guaranteed, but I don't think it is.

It certainly should be: we now know that there isn't going to be an extra £350million per week for the NHS, in fact Brexit will almost certainly mean less money for public services. We know we'll have to stump up £39billion to meet our commitments, but there was no mention of that last time. Immigration from EU countries may be going down, but immigration from non-EU countries is rising, so a significant net reduction in immigration looks unlikely, which won't please leave voters. In fact, if we want to sign trade deals with the likes of India and China, you can bet that stronger rights for their citizens to live and work in the UK will be part of the deal. We know that the negotiations on our future relationship with the EU are going to be long and difficult, not "one of the easiest deals in history".

The trouble is, these are mere facts, and we saw last time that facts may not get much of a look-in. If there is a referendum we can safely assume that the leave side will attempt to frame it as an establishment coup designed to rob the people of their precious Brexit. If the remain side isn't careful (assuming remain is an option on the ballot paper) populist jingoistic bullshit could easily win again. I agree that a referendum looks as though it may be the only way out of this mess, so I do hope it happens, but the risks are obvious and considerable. 

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 26, 2018, 03:28:51 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on December 23, 2018, 03:26:28 PM
The thing that worries me is just how much opinion has really shifted to remain. There does seem to have been some movement - polls for a while now have had remain ahead by about 53-47 - but that's far too close for comfort for my liking. Some of the most enthusiastic voices calling for a referendum seem to assume that a remain win would be pretty much guaranteed, but I don't think it is.

[...]

I agree that a referendum looks as though it may be the only way out of this mess, so I do hope it happens, but the risks are obvious and considerable.

Agreed and agreed.

If there is no clear and decisive majority in favour of remain in successive polls, it would be very risky to organize a referendum since any other outcome than remain would lead to utter chaos. And nobody is going to burn their fingers on such a decision.

Parliamentarians are in majority in favour of remain, but won't vote for it without a clear popular mandate.
And leaving the EU is the official  party line of both major parties.
So, in my assessment May is absolutely right: it is her deal or no deal.... And if it comes to that choice, there will be a majority  for May's deal of remainers from both parties plus Tory Brexiteers that are loyal to May. And Corbyn will allow it, because he doesn't want to be responsible for a hard Brexit.

So, the issue whether there will be a referendum will be decisive IMO.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 27, 2018, 05:23:38 AM
Just in case anyone still needed convincing that Corbyn has no clue whatsoever what he is talking about in relation to EU rules:

Four reasons Jeremy Corbyn is dead wrong about EU state aid (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/27/four-reasons-jeremy-corbyn-wrong-eu-state-aid)

The Labour leader claims EU rules would stymie his efforts to regenerate the economy.
But his arguments make no sense.


No, it doesn't make any sense. But since when is that an obstacle in politics?
As a civil servant I've dealt with quite a few politicians, and unfortunately many of them do not act on the basis of hard evidence and real facts that they weigh carefully before taking a decision, but instead on the basis of vague and untested preconceived notions they've picked up somewhere along they way....

I guess Corbyn is one of those. You would think that with a topic as crucial as this he would do his homework and let himself be informed by experts, or at least listen to them? But no... he likes his own personal "alternative truth" better - reality is either too complicated or just politically inconvenient.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 31, 2018, 03:59:17 AM
Brexit: US ambassador to UK Johnson warns on trade deal (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46720323) (BBC)

You would almost forget that the UK is already party to a trade deal with the US, and it is better than anything Trump will ever offer....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 01, 2019, 02:36:06 AM
Best of luck in the New Year....

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/39eed6f0d408139af0229312608bacc1c7c36022/0_9_3442_2071/master/3442.jpg?width=940&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=48342b9b80211cd55cd82b30c1b65342)

I'm actually quite confident that a disaster will be avoided. 

But not so sure if that apllies to an exit from the EU altogether... A couple of years of soul searching on the sidelines, might be in the cards.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on January 01, 2019, 02:39:32 AM
There is a danger that the government may have to introduce emergency powers to force it through, thereby eroding democracy.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 01, 2019, 02:58:26 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on January 01, 2019, 02:39:32 AM
There is a danger that the government may have to introduce emergency powers to force it through, thereby eroding democracy.

From my view point, from across the Channel, British parliamentary democracy has been steadily eroded right from the moment of the referendum result. What was needed, was a comprise to bridge the divide between the 52% leavers and the 48% renainers. Unfortunately the British system is not built for that, and was/is unable to deliver it. The magnitude of that unresolved issue is now tearing the political system and society, and perhaps even the UK as a state, apart.
Something has to give, and, irrespective of the outcome of Brexit, a major realignment and reform of the British political system seems unavoidable, even necessary.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on January 01, 2019, 04:43:50 AM
Quote from: Que on January 01, 2019, 02:58:26 AM
, a major realignment and reform of the British political system seems unavoidable
Sorry Que, what benefits politicians though hardly anybody else, will never be reformed unless a revolution takes place.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 01, 2019, 05:52:40 AM
Quote from: The new erato on January 01, 2019, 04:43:50 AM
Sorry Que, what benefits politicians though hardly anybody else, will never be reformed unless a revolution takes place.

Agreed, some sort of crisis would have to force the hand of politicians....

A trigger could be a constitutional crisis, the break up of one or both of the two major parties or the threat of a Scottish secession.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 03, 2019, 01:55:18 AM
By pushing Brexit and rejecting a 2nd referendum, Corbyn is actually forcing remainers and moderate leavers to support May's deal as the only alternative to a hard Brexit.

Will he listen to reason?

An open letter to Jeremy Corbyn: Brexit would destroy your political project (https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/01/open-letter-jeremy-corbyn-brexit-would-destroy-your-political-project)

I doubt it... Changing his mind now, would tarnish his credibility... that ship has sailed...
He got himself, after two years of tactical manoeuvring on Brexit, into a lose-lose situation.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on January 03, 2019, 02:49:13 PM
Quote from: Que on January 03, 2019, 01:55:18 AM
By pushing Brexit and rejecting a 2nd referendum, Corbyn is actually forcing remainers and moderate leavers to support May's deal as the only alternative to a hard Brexit.

Will he listen to reason?

An open letter to Jeremy Corbyn: Brexit would destroy your political project (https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/01/open-letter-jeremy-corbyn-brexit-would-destroy-your-political-project)

I doubt it... Changing his mind now, would tarnish his credibility... that ship has sailed...
He got himself, after two years of tactical manoeuvring on Brexit, into a lose-lose situation.

Q

As I said a bit earlier, it's not realistic to think he's going to come out for a referendum before the vote on May's deal, especially with that vote now only two weeks away. He'll follow the sequence agreed at the Labour conference: assuming May's deal falls, as it probably will, he'll try to force an election. He almost certainly won't be able to do that, so that's when he'll have to choose: stick to pursuing Brexit or support a referendum. I still expect him to go for the latter because now it's not just his enemies on the right of the party calling for it, it's his own support base on the left. If he alienates them he's finished. If he comes out for a referendum when all other options fail he can argue that it's the only way to break the impasse while also giving his base what they want.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 03, 2019, 03:21:48 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on January 03, 2019, 02:49:13 PM
As I said a bit earlier, it's not realistic to think he's going to come out for a referendum before the vote on May's deal, especially with that vote now only two weeks away. He'll follow the sequence agreed at the Labour conference: assuming May's deal falls, as it probably will, he'll try to force an election. He almost certainly won't be able to do that, so that's when he'll have to choose: stick to pursuing Brexit or support a referendum. I still expect him to go for the latter because now it's not just his enemies on the right of the party calling for it, it's his own support base on the left. If he alienates them he's finished. If he comes out for a referendum when all other options fail he can argue that it's the only way to break the impasse while also giving his base what they want.

I'm curious if you'll be right!  :) We will know soon enough.....

I think he prefers being in power to pursuing Brexit, but would like to do both.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on January 04, 2019, 08:23:44 AM
An interesting article about the irish 'backstop' issue


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46528952?wpisrc=nl_todayworld&wpmm=1 (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46528952?wpisrc=nl_todayworld&wpmm=1)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on January 04, 2019, 03:11:41 PM
Quote from: André on January 04, 2019, 08:23:44 AM
An interesting article about the irish 'backstop' issue


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46528952?wpisrc=nl_todayworld&wpmm=1 (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46528952?wpisrc=nl_todayworld&wpmm=1)

No surprises there. The Brexiters don't give a shit about Ireland or the border issue, so they never bothered to examine it before the referendum and dismissed any concerns expressed as scaremongering. If they had taken it seriously they would have realised just what a problem it was likely to be in the event of a vote to leave, but their contemptuous lack of interest has come back to bite them on the arse as it threatens to deny them their precious hard Brexit. Naturally, in a display of world-class projection, their cynical and utterly reckless disregard of the acute sensitivity of the border issue and Irish concerns is transmuted into a cynical EU and Irish government "weaponising" the issue. 

I like this bit:

Quote"We simply cannot allow the Irish to treat us like this," the former minister said about the negotiating tactics of the Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar.

The Conservative MP was exasperated that the Republic of Ireland (population: 4.8m) has been able to shape the EU negotiating stance that has put such pressure on the UK (population: 66m).

It's almost as if being part of a multinational bloc gives an individual country greater clout than it would have on its own. I wonder if there are any lessons we could learn from this?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on January 15, 2019, 09:25:12 AM
No discussion leading up to the big vote? It seems like a train wreck, comparable to the US federal government, is to come...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on January 16, 2019, 07:59:14 AM
Crickets here.

I picture our UK members in an ad hoc flotilla headed for the continent...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: ritter on January 16, 2019, 08:00:06 AM
Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on January 16, 2019, 07:59:14 AM
...
I picture our UK members in an ad hoc flotilla headed for the continent...
Operation Dynamo in reverse?

The received wisdom is that the Suez crisis in 1956 marked the end of Britain as a country with any real influence in the international scene. Suez, I'm afraid, was a walk in the park compared to the Brexit shambles.

The Telegraph on yesterday's vote in Parliament  ;D:

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on January 16, 2019, 08:50:44 AM
Quote from: ritter on January 16, 2019, 08:00:06 AM
Operation Dynamo in reverse?

The received wisdom is that the Suez crisis in 1956 marked the end of Britian as a country with real influence in the international scene. Suez, I'm afraid, was a walk in the park compared to the Brexit shambles.

The Telegraph on yesterday's vote in Parliament  ;D:
That is true about Suez - a good example of learning the wrong lesson from history. Love the Matt cartoon - he is brilliant.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on January 16, 2019, 09:12:54 AM
Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on January 16, 2019, 07:59:14 AM
Crickets here.

I picture our UK members in an ad hoc flotilla headed for the continent...

Here are the British members headed for the continent:
(//)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on January 16, 2019, 09:27:06 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on January 16, 2019, 09:12:54 AM
Here are the British members headed for the continent:


I was imagining something much more stylish.

(https://www.hellomagazine.com/imagenes/royalty/2015090227058/the-queen-longest-reign-thames-flotilla-planned/0-135-454/Flotilla--z.jpg)

:)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on January 16, 2019, 11:11:20 AM
...and yet May survives the confidence vote. What is she supposed to do now? Two years of negotiations with the EU scrapped, and now she is supposed to patch something together in 10 weeks?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on January 16, 2019, 11:20:32 AM
Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on January 16, 2019, 09:27:06 AM
I was imagining something much more stylish.

(https://www.hellomagazine.com/imagenes/royalty/2015090227058/the-queen-longest-reign-thames-flotilla-planned/0-135-454/Flotilla--z.jpg)

:)

For a moment I wasn't sure if the flotilla was going upriver (wrong direction) or downriver - Brexiters: you never know  ::). But that's ok, they're heading toward the Channel.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on January 16, 2019, 11:30:12 AM
Quote from: André on January 16, 2019, 11:20:32 AM
For a moment I wasn't sure if the flotilla was going upriver (wrong direction) or downriver - Brexiters: you never know  ::). But that's ok, they're heading toward the Channel.

Yes, I checked. If they paddle hard they can be in the channel by nightfall, then braving the open seas for Dunkirk.  :(
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on January 16, 2019, 11:39:58 AM
Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on January 16, 2019, 11:30:12 AM
Yes, I checked. If they paddle hard they can be in the channel by nightfall, then braving the open seas for Dunkirk.  :(

I wonder if they thought of bringing their passport ?  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: ritter on January 16, 2019, 11:46:04 AM
Quote from: André on January 16, 2019, 11:39:58 AM
I wonder if they thought of bringing their passport ?  ::)
...and some provisions of marmite, single malt whisky, and other such items that will soon become scarce on the continent.  >:(
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on January 16, 2019, 12:07:48 PM
Perhaps there is a Brexit metaphor here. The Prime-Minister goes one way and the aircraft go the other way. I've always been amused by this:
(//)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: ritter on January 16, 2019, 12:19:28 PM
Quote from: vandermolen on January 16, 2019, 12:07:48 PM
Perhaps there is a Brexit metaphor here. The Prime-Minister goes one way and the aircraft go the other way. I've always been amused by this:
(//)
...and the tanks yet another way! Brilliant! ;D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on January 16, 2019, 12:25:26 PM
Quote from: ritter on January 16, 2019, 12:19:28 PM
...and the tanks yet another way! Brilliant! ;D

That's quite true! Clearly prophetic of Brexit.
:)

Actually something else which comes to mind in connection with our current predicament is the end of 'Waiting for Godot' by Samuel Beckett:

One character says 'Shall we go?'

The other replies: 'Yes, let's go.'

And the stage direction indicates 'nobody moves'.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on January 17, 2019, 11:16:22 AM
https://www.youtube.com/v/i97FkO3d_lU
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on January 17, 2019, 11:53:43 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on January 16, 2019, 12:25:26 PM
That's quite true! Clearly prophetic of Brexit.
:)

Actually something else which comes to mind in connection with our current predicament is the end of 'Waiting for Godot' by Samuel Beckett:

One character says 'Shall we go?'

The other replies: 'Yes, let's go.'

And the stage direction indicates 'nobody moves'.

;D

Godot was the first play I ever watched - it was a school outing. I was so puzzled. Very apt quote, Jeffrey !
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on January 17, 2019, 05:09:22 PM
I caught a bit of tonight's Question Time, and if the audience is any guide, it seems some leavers are not just prepared to see a no deal Brexit happen, some of them are almost gung-ho about it. "Turkeys voting for Christmas" hardly seems an adequate expression.

If they get their way, perhaps we should just go the whole hog and rename the country Royston Vasey. Hilary Briss can draw up our new food safety standards, animal welfare can safely be left in the capable hands of Mr. Chinnery, and Edward and Tubbs can negotiate exciting new trade deals for Precious Things to sell in the Local Shop - they may be a pair of murderous inbreds, but better that than Liam bloody Fox. Papa Lazarou's blackface makes him the only serious candidate for prime minister of this glorious new nation, given the Brexiters' desire to lead us marching proudly into the 1950s and their famously enlightened attitudes on immigration.  The day after we fall off the cliff and go splat at the bottom free ourselves from the hated yoke of Brussels, a magnificent new production celebrating our national liberation will be presented by Legz Akimbo.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 17, 2019, 10:05:41 PM
There is a new word in town... Brextinction.....

It was never about Europe. Brexit is Britain's reckoning with itself. (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/18/europe-brexit-britain-state-politics-fit-for-purpose).


A brief observation: Corbyn hasn't moved an inch towards a 2nd referendum....yet...  ::)

My guess: he still wants Brexit, and he still wants "his" (imaginairy) Brexit deal.... that the EU is not going to agree to, at least on Corbyn's terms....

No matter how many times Westminster goes around in circles, currently there are only three options:

1. May's negotiated deal
2. Exit without a deal
3. Remaining in the EU.

And no flying unicorns in sight....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on January 18, 2019, 06:13:29 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on January 17, 2019, 05:09:22 PM
I caught a bit of tonight's Question Time, and if the audience is any guide, it seems some leavers are not just prepared to see a no deal Brexit happen, some of them are almost gung-ho about it. "Turkeys voting for Christmas" hardly seems an adequate expression.

I thought Anand Menon's clarity about what a no deal Brexit would mean, was excellent (about 17.00 in youtube vid below), particularly set against the partisan waffle and gung ho-ism in the prog. I wish he and others like him were more in the public eye.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cif44qEYXU


Quote from: Mr. Minnow on January 17, 2019, 05:09:22 PM
If they get their way, perhaps we should just go the whole hog and rename the country Royston Vasey. Hilary Briss can draw up our new food safety standards, animal welfare can safely be left in the capable hands of Mr. Chinnery, and Edward and Tubbs can negotiate exciting new trade deals for Precious Things to sell in the Local Shop - they may be a pair of murderous inbreds, but better that than Liam bloody Fox. Papa Lazarou's blackface makes him the only serious candidate for prime minister of this glorious new nation, given the Brexiters' desire to lead us marching proudly into the 1950s and their famously enlightened attitudes on immigration.  The day after we fall off the cliff and go splat at the bottom free ourselves from the hated yoke of Brussels, a magnificent new production celebrating our national liberation will be presented by Legz Akimbo.

I think you may have just won the Satirical Bullseye of the Month award.


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on January 18, 2019, 10:59:49 AM
Quote from: Iota on January 18, 2019, 06:13:29 AM
I thought Anand Menon's clarity about what a no deal Brexit would mean, was excellent (about 17.00 in youtube vid below), particularly set against the partisan waffle and gung ho-ism in the prog. I wish he and others like him were more in the public eye.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cif44qEYXU

Oakeshott shook her head when Menon spelt out some of the consequences of no deal. Either she really does believe that what Menon said isn't true, in which case she's simply pig-ignorant, or she knows it's true but is denying it anyway, in which case she's a liar. Both are entirely plausible.


QuoteI think you may have just won the Satirical Bullseye of the Month award.

Thanks :)

If only it didn't feel more like reality than satire :(
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on January 18, 2019, 01:59:57 PM
Quote from: André on January 17, 2019, 11:53:43 AM
;D

Godot was the first play I ever watched - it was a school outing. I was so puzzled. Very apt quote, Jeffrey !
Thanks Andre!
:)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on January 19, 2019, 10:07:00 PM
I'm afraid this isn't very flattering to the British

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/17/opinion/sunday/brexit-ireland-empire.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

The Malign Incompetence of the British Ruling Class

With Brexit, the chumocrats who drew borders from India to Ireland are getting a taste of their own medicine.

By Pankaj Mishra

The basic idea seems to be that the combination of arrogance and incompetence that was inflicted on British Colonies is now being applied at home....
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 20, 2019, 02:21:28 AM
Food for thought:

In a bizarre turn of events, Theresa May could get her Brexit deal through after all – the key lies with Yvette Cooper (https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-deal-vote-theresa-may-second-referendum-vote-election-yvette-cooper-a8736216.html)

For the moment I'm sticking with my prediction that the UK will leave the EU on May's deal....
I agree with the analysis in the article that a move to close off the possibility of an (accidental) No Deal, reinforces the negotiated deal as the only viable option.

Unless..... Labour would support a 2nd referendum.... And the signs on that happening are at present not very strong, to put it mildly.


Andrew Rawnsley (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/20/its-compass-smashed-the-ghost-ship-brexit-sails-into-ever-darker-waters) evokes the image of The Flying Dutchman as a metaphor for the process of Brexit: a ghost ship damned to sail the seas for eternity with no hope of ever reaching port.

Well, Brexit has certainly turned out to be a curse for Britain, present & future.....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on January 20, 2019, 10:11:40 AM
Quote from: Que on January 20, 2019, 02:21:28 AM
Food for thought:

In a bizarre turn of events, Theresa May could get her Brexit deal through after all – the key lies with Yvette Cooper (https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-deal-vote-theresa-may-second-referendum-vote-election-yvette-cooper-a8736216.html)

For the moment I'm sticking with my prediction that the UK will leave the EU on May's deal....
I agree with the analysis in the article that a move to close off the possibility of an (accidental) No Deal, reinforces the negotiated deal as the only viable option.

I don't think I'd bet too much money on a bunch of ideological fanatics backing down and accepting a deal which they don't regard as a "proper" Brexit. It's possible of course, but thus far the word compromise has been conspicuously absent from the ERG dictionary.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: XB-70 Valkyrie on January 20, 2019, 05:14:37 PM
Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on January 19, 2019, 10:07:00 PM
I'm afraid this isn't very flattering to the British

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/17/opinion/sunday/brexit-ireland-empire.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

The Malign Incompetence of the British Ruling Class

With Brexit, the chumocrats who drew borders from India to Ireland are getting a taste of their own medicine.

By Pankaj Mishra

The basic idea seems to be that the combination of arrogance and incompetence that was inflicted on British Colonies is now being applied at home....

Well, not very flattering to the ruling class and royalty in any case I suppose. Nevertheless, an excellent article that should be required reading, and explains much of the needless suffering, genocide, and horror of the last, oh 400 (?) years! Also they forgot to point out the chumocrats' well-known penchant for bestiality (oink! oink!) among other "interesting" behaviors. (You peons wouldn't understand!) Forgive me for not being enthralled every time there is news of a new royal spawn.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 20, 2019, 09:37:27 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on January 20, 2019, 10:11:40 AM
I don't think I'd bet too much money on a bunch of ideological fanatics backing down and accepting a deal which they don't regard as a "proper" Brexit. It's possible of course, but thus far the word compromise has been conspicuously absent from the ERG dictionary.

I think there will be a point where hardline Brexiteers will accept May's deal, to avoid Brexit not going through altogether and to keep the Conservative party afloat (and prevent a Corbyn govt). There reasoning will be: any Brexit now, the "right" Brexit later.... After all, what's on the table is just the exit agreement - the future relationship with EU has still to be determined. Though it does mean accepting that Northern Ireland will be economically aligned with the EU forever. But I doubt if Brexiteers are really that much concerned with NI anyway....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on January 21, 2019, 04:43:05 AM
Quote from: Que on January 20, 2019, 09:37:27 PM
I think there will be a point where hardline Registers will accept May's deal, to avoid Brexit not going through altogether and to keep the Conservative party afloat (and prevent a Corbyn govt). There reasoning will be: any Brexit now, the "right" Brexit later.... After all, what's on the table is just the exit agreement - the future relationship with EU has still to be determined.

This is possible, but one of their objections to the withdrawal agreement, particularly the backstop, is that it keeps us aligned to EU rules in the absence of a trade agreement, and the perfidious Europeans will ensure that no such agreement is reached for years, if ever. This, so the argument goes, means they will make sure the backstop is activated, at which point they will have us where they want us and keep us there, knowing there is no mechanism in the backstop to allow us to leave it unilaterally. Of course, if they're prepared to leave by voting for May's deal and then just tear up the entire withdrawal agreement once we're out, that's a different matter. They're probably mad enough to try it, but they'd have to explain why they were willing to vote for the WA in the first place if they then proceeded to trash it.   

QuoteThough it does mean accepting that Northern Ireland will be economically aligned with the EU forever. But I doubt if Brexiteers are really that much concerned with NI anyway....

Q

Brexit voters certainly aren't, hence those polls from a few months back which found that most leave voters would still want Brexit even if it undermined peace in Ireland. Pro-Brexit politicians are a different matter: the DUP care about nothing else but NI, and the Tory party is called the Conservative and Unionist party, so losing a part of the UK would be a pretty big deal to them.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 21, 2019, 09:59:25 PM
Lo and behold..... :o

Labour calls for vote in Commons on holding second referendum (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/21/labour-calls-for-vote-in-commons-on-holding-second-referendum)

But wait..... now read the fineprint:

"The wording called for May's government to hold a vote on two options – its alternative Brexit plan and whether to legislate "to hold a public vote on a deal or a proposition" that is supported by a majority in the Commons."

So.... unless it is supported by a majority the House of Commons, the option of remaining in the EU would not be on the ballot paper. Same for May's deal or a the option of no deal. Corbyn plays the same game as May: it's his way or nothing.

Would the necessity of reaching an agreement with the EU be a consideration at all?  ::) That will be May's decisive trump card....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on January 22, 2019, 02:46:23 PM
Quote from: Que on January 21, 2019, 09:59:25 PM
Lo and behold..... :o

Labour calls for vote in Commons on holding second referendum (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/21/labour-calls-for-vote-in-commons-on-holding-second-referendum)

But wait..... now read the fineprint:

"The wording called for May's government to hold a vote on two options – its alternative Brexit plan and whether to legislate "to hold a public vote on a deal or a proposition" that is supported by a majority in the Commons."

So.... unless it is supported by a majority the House of Commons, the option of remaining in the EU would not be on the ballot paper. Same for May's deal or a the option of no deal. Corbyn plays the same game as May: it's his way or nothing.

Would the necessity of reaching an agreement with the EU be a consideration at all?  ::) That will be May's decisive trump card....

Q

To be fair, it is the first step in the direction of a referendum Labour has made - David Lammy has acknowledged that, and he's one of the loudest voices in Labour calling for a referendum. That said, it's clearly not the unequivocal support that the headline implies. This may be one reason that it doesn't go as far as the People's Vote campaign would like:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/22/labour-frontbenchers-warn-of-opposition-to-second-brexit-referendum (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/22/labour-frontbenchers-warn-of-opposition-to-second-brexit-referendum) 

If a referendum is to happen, it really needs to be the last option left once all other options have been voted down. We seem to be headed for a series of indicative votes, so no doubt everyone will want their preferred option to be the one that is voted on last.

Here's another good example of an article that doesn't quite say what the headline implies:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/22/tory-hardliners-reconsider-may-deal-amid-fears-that-brexit-could-be-blocked (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/22/tory-hardliners-reconsider-may-deal-amid-fears-that-brexit-could-be-blocked)

So the ERG and co are falling into line behind May's deal!

Er, not quite.....

QuoteTory Brexit supporters alarmed by the prospect of a delay have hinted they could be won over in the coming weeks – if Theresa May can produce a serious concession from Brussels on the Irish backstop.

And what would that "serious concession" be?

Quotesome Brexiter MPs or those in seats which voted leave have suggested in recent days that there is a path to win their support.

"There are clearly forces at work to block and frustrate Brexit and the most important thing, whether it's good deal, no deal or whatever, is that we leave," said Ben Bradley, the MP for Mansfield. "The public and leave voters will accept nothing less and that means that, yes, I will vote for a revised deal that doesn't include a permanent backstop because, whilst I still have issues with it, those issues are then temporary and our leaving on 29 March is absolutely secured."

Ah, so the "serious concession" is time-limiting the backstop - you know, the change which both the EU and the Irish government have already stated countless times, including as recently as yesterday, that they won't agree to. So, deal almost done then.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 29, 2019, 09:26:29 PM
Brexit: May goes back to Brussels but EU says nothing has changed (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/29/may-goes-back-to-brussels-but-eu-says-nothing-has-changed)

So, the Tory hardline Brexiteers of Rees-Mogg c.s. succeeded in creating a win-win situation: either the EU caves in and throws the Irish (from both sides of the border) under the bus so the UK can end up with a unicorn deal, or they end up with their desired hard Brexit with the perfect pretext to blame the EU for it.

Brexit enabler Corbyn dropped the ball last week while playing his "clever" waiting games and is now sidetracked....

An "accidental" hard Brexit is now in the making - the pound fell hard - though one can hardly call it accidental anymore...

I expect the EU to agree at the 11th hour to an (unconditional) extension/ delay of three months up to the European elections, just to counter the image that it pushed the UK off the cliff.... But it probably won't make any difference...

Quote of the day from Labour's Stella Creasy:
"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing again and again and expecting different results..."

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on January 30, 2019, 12:43:45 AM
Quote from: Que on January 29, 2019, 09:26:29 PM
Brexit: May goes back to Brussels but EU says nothing has changed (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/29/may-goes-back-to-brussels-but-eu-says-nothing-has-changed)

So, the Tory hardline Brexiteers of Rees-Mogg c.s. succeeded in creating a win-win situation: either the EU caves in and throws the Irish (from both sides of the border) under the bus so the UK can end up with a unicorn deal, or they end up with their desired hard Brexit with the perfect pretext to blame the EU for it.

Brexit enabler Corbyn dropped the ball last week while playing his "clever" waiting games and is now sidetracked....

An "accidental" hard Brexit is now in the making - the pound fell hard - though one can hardly call it accidental anymore...

I expect the EU to agree at the 11th hour to an (unconditional) extension/ delay of three months up to the European elections, just to counter the image that it pushed the UK off the cliff.... But it probably won't make any difference...

Quote of the day from Labour's Stella Creasy:
"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing again and again and expecting different results..."

Q

A fact which compounds the whole mess is the Romanian presidency of EU. The current Romanian government starting with the prime-minister is an unmitigated disaster, a poisonous mixture of extreme incompetence, clinical stupidity and sheer contempt for the rule of law (the minister of Justice is particularly dangerous and the minister of Agriculture is particularly ridiculous.). I feel ashamed and embarrased that such people will be in charge of the EU affairs for the next half year and I hope they'll make fools only of themselves, not of the Romanian people as a whole.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on January 30, 2019, 04:27:53 AM
Quote from: Que on January 29, 2019, 09:26:29 PM
Brexit: May goes back to Brussels but EU says nothing has changed (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/29/may-goes-back-to-brussels-but-eu-says-nothing-has-changed)

So, the Tory hardline Brexiteers of Rees-Mogg c.s. succeeded in creating a win-win situation: either the EU caves in and throws the Irish (from both sides of the border) under the bus so the UK can end up with a unicorn deal, or they end up with their desired hard Brexit with the perfect pretext to blame the EU for it.

Before the vote on the Brady amendment, one of Sky's political correspondents posted a tweet in which she said that she'd just spoken to a hardline Brexiter. This MP told her that the ERG and co were backing that amendment so that if the EU rejected it and we end up with no deal, they could paint the EU as the villains of the piece. So yes, you're right, that's exactly what yesterday was about. They don't give a shit about the consequences of inflicting a no deal Brexit on the country: they're quite willing to leave with no deal - some are even enthusiastic about it - just as long as they don't have to take responsibility for it and can blame the EU instead. That is deemed "politically acceptable", especially as it won't be the likes of Johnson and Rees-Mogg who will suffer. And May, predictably enough, caves in to these fanatics every time. The extent to which the Tory party is willing to put it's own interests above the country's never ceases to amaze.

At this point I wouldn't blame the 27 for telling us to sod off, but that would play into the hands of the Brexiters' "blame EU intransigence" narrative. I hope the EU reiterates what was said a few days ago: we'll reopen the WA, we can change the backstop, but that means staying in the customs union. The Brexiters and May will reject that of course, but it's better if any rejection is seen to come from them rather than the EU.

The one thing that may scupper their plans is that there are cabinet ministers who have made it pretty clear that they'll resign if May pursues a no deal Brexit. Just as agreeing to a soft Brexit would probably split the party because the Brexiters would go apeshit, so a hard Brexit could well split the party because the Remainers wouldn't stomach it.   



QuoteBrexit enabler Corbyn dropped the ball last week while playing his "clever" waiting games and is now sidetracked....

Not sure blaming Corbyn is entirely fair. Look at the Labour MPs who voted with the Tories yesterday: it's partly long-time Brexiters, but also people on the right of the party like Caroline Flint - i.e. the people who were blaming Corbyn for not doing enough to stop Brexit, and who are now enabling it by voting with the hardline Brexiters in the Tory party.

QuoteAn "accidental" hard Brexit is now in the making - the pound fell hard - though one can hardly call it accidental anymore...

I'm still hoping we get to a point where it's no deal or a referendum. My hopes aren't very high after yesterday, as the Commons was only willing to back a non-binding amendment against no deal, but it's still possible that if faced with that choice, a lot more MPs would back a referendum rather than see us crash out and fall off the cliff.



Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on January 30, 2019, 11:27:50 AM
I said a bit earlier in this thread that while a referendum may be the only way out of this mess and I hope it happens, it's far from certain that remain would win (despite the polls). Here's one of the reasons I hold that view:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/30/it-is-terrible-but-i-still-want-it-crewe-voters-size-up-no-deal-brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/30/it-is-terrible-but-i-still-want-it-crewe-voters-size-up-no-deal-brexit)

QuoteThe 73-year-old former builder and engineer said he had been lied to by the leave campaign. "They didn't tell us the true facts. They kept us in the dark like mushrooms and fed us bullshit," he said. "We voted because of immigration and we didn't realise how poor we would be. It will be terrible but I still want it, because of immigration."

???

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 02, 2019, 02:46:57 AM
(https://g8fip1kplyr33r3krz5b97d1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Kal-econ-cartoon-2-2-19synd-1024x692.jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on February 06, 2019, 05:24:58 PM
The idiot Tusk acting and talking like God Almighty.
If only he had said "I wonder on what party drug those Brexiteers were on...".

No fun.
It's gonna be bad, both for the UK and the EU.
Already people here hoarding up medicin made in the UK.

And more and more people will feel heavily disappointed by all those 'smart ass' politicians.
More chances to grow for all the Trumps, UKIPs, Alternative für Deutschland, Le Pens, Kaczynski's, Orbáns and Wilders's.
Divide et impera.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on February 07, 2019, 05:18:48 AM
This made the news on RMC this morning, with some snide comments from the wonderful Jean Jacques Bourdin

Paris: Un appartement vendu pour 39 millions d'euros

Selon les informations de l'hebdomadaire, l'acheteur est un industriel anglais souhaitant quitter le Royaume-Uni pour s'installer à Paris. Le Brexit accélère actuellement les investissements. Les acheteurs fortunés se rabattent sur Paris face à la menace d'un tassement des prix outre-Manche


https://www.20minutes.fr/paris/2444927-20190206-paris-appartement-vendu-39-millions-euros

I don't like the sound of that tassement !
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on February 07, 2019, 09:26:22 AM
Daily Telegraph today:
(//)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on February 07, 2019, 09:37:51 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on February 07, 2019, 09:26:22 AM
Daily Telegraph today:
(//)
A special place in hell indeed.  :laugh:
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on February 07, 2019, 09:40:28 AM
Quote from: Christo on February 07, 2019, 09:37:51 AM
A special place in hell indeed.  :laugh:

They deserve worse!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on February 07, 2019, 10:52:46 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on February 07, 2019, 09:40:28 AM
They deserve worse!
Richard Strauss, you mean? Or Karl Jenkins?  8)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on February 08, 2019, 09:18:08 AM
Quote from: Christo on February 07, 2019, 10:52:46 AM
Richard Strauss, you mean? Or Karl Jenkins?  8)

Yes, either of them. Especially 'Ein Heldenleben' (takes cover in concrete bunker) or possible endlessly repeated recordings of the 'New Year's Day Concert from Vienna'.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on February 08, 2019, 03:49:09 PM
I'm just relieved that the British politicians and papers professing to be so offended by Tusk's comment have always been so scrupulously polite and diplomatic in their use of language about the EU. Otherwise this outbreak of Delicate Flower Syndrome might just look a tad hypocritical.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-donald-tusk-theresa-may-hell-eu-boris-johnson-jeremy-hunt-the-sun-stalin-a8767871.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-donald-tusk-theresa-may-hell-eu-boris-johnson-jeremy-hunt-the-sun-stalin-a8767871.html)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 09, 2019, 09:44:35 PM
This plan, forging an ad hoc coalition of May loyalists and Remainers, might actually fly:

Back May's deal, then hold people's vote: plan to end Brexit deadlock (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/09/back-theresa-may-brexit-deal-then-hold-peoples-vote-backbencher-plan)

If you can't agree on content, then at least on procedure....  8)

A 2nd referendum with a choice between the negotiated deal and remaining in the European Union, will offer a clear choice and is likely to settle the issue politically. And both options are realistic and can be implemented immediately, as opposed to the many "pies in the sky"...

But..... what is our Jeremy (Corbyn) going to do?  ::)
Neither option would be in line with his preferred Brexit solution (not in but closely aligned to the internal market), though May's deal could be moved into that direction in further negotiations. But for that to happen, Labour would need to take over government during the transition period.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on February 11, 2019, 03:02:42 PM
Quote from: Que on February 09, 2019, 09:44:35 PM
This plan, forging an ad hoc coalition of May loyalists and Remainers, might actually fly:

Back May's deal, then hold people's vote: plan to end Brexit deadlock (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/09/back-theresa-may-brexit-deal-then-hold-peoples-vote-backbencher-plan)

If you can't agree on content, then at least on procedure....  8)

A 2nd referendum with a choice between the negotiated deal and remaining in the European Union, will offer a clear choice and is likely to settle the issue politically. And both options are realistic and can be implemented immediately, as opposed to the many "pies in the sky"...

But..... what is our Jeremy (Corbyn) going to do?  ::)
Neither option would be in line with his preferred Brexit solution (not in but closely aligned to the internal market), though May's deal could be moved into that direction in further negotiations. But for that to happen, Labour would need to take over government during the transition period.

Q

A referendum in which the choices are remain or May's deal would almost certainly be won by remain, given the unpopularity of May's deal with leavers and remainers alike. The problem is the Brexit ultras regard May's deal as Brexit in name only. That means they'd scream blue murder about such a referendum being an "establishment stitch-up" as it doesn't offer a "proper" Brexit, especially with chancer-in-chief Farage backing a new Brexit party. I'd like to think that if there were another referendum, he and his ilk would be relentlessly pressed by the media to produce a rigorous, detailed plan explaining exactly what they want to do and how they think they can do it. But I wouldn't hold my breath - bullshit populist slogans like "take back control" would probably be allowed to go largely unchallenged all over again.

Meanwhile, there's nothing at all worrying about this:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-no-deal-brexit-fallback-plan_uk_5c617348e4b0910c63f30fc8?fbm&utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage&guccounter=1 (https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-no-deal-brexit-fallback-plan_uk_5c617348e4b0910c63f30fc8?fbm&utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage&guccounter=1)

If she really is considering going for no deal I wouldn't be at all surprised.

QuoteIn recent days, May has more than ever bought into the Smith-Lewis argument that party unity has to come first, one source claims.

Yeah, sod the country - as long as the Tory party holds together, that's the important thing.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on February 16, 2019, 07:04:46 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on February 11, 2019, 03:02:42 PM
Yeah, sod the country - as long as the Tory party holds together, that's the important thing.

There's something dream-like about this slow slide to disaster, levers of logic/overwhelming evidence are provided to avert the disaster, but pull on them and they're made of air.
So soul sapping, partly because of the truth, of being able to sway a thousand men by appealing to their prejudices quicker than you can convince one man by logic, but also partly because of the absurdly and pathologically unhealthy situation of a whole country being held to ransom by a tiny kernel of political self-interest, as identified by Mr M above.

It seems grasping at straws of hope and being constantly disappointed, is currently the only not completely fatalistic option for the Remainer.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 16, 2019, 11:39:14 PM
The situation seens to become more surreal as the deadline approaches....  ???

But if we apply some logic to the situation, a no deal outcome would be entirely accidental since a parliamentary majority wants to avoid it...

In my view the other options are:
1. May's deal, either supported by her own party and some leavers in the opposition provided that Rees-Mogg cs. cave in, or supported by a cross party ad hoc coalition (which seems unlikely).
2. A referendum on May's deal, with remaining in the EU as a default option.

A referendum supported by May loyalists and remainers should be the most logical outcome.
But the adverserial British political system isn't built for compromise, and both May and Corbyn are sticking to their preferred options. May actually has the advantage of a deal negotiated with the EU, Corbyn has just another garden full of unicorns...
May might support another referendum to avert a no deal, Corbyn's hand would have to be forced by his own party.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on February 16, 2019, 11:47:17 PM
This is looking increasingly as a game of chicken.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on February 17, 2019, 03:06:47 PM
Quote from: Que on February 16, 2019, 11:39:14 PM
But if we apply some logic to the situation,

Unfortunately logic doesn't seem to be of much use when it comes to Brexit.

QuoteIn my view the other options are:
1. May's deal, either supported by her own party and some leavers in the opposition provided that Rees-Mogg cs. cave in, or supported by a cross party ad hoc coalition (which seems unlikely).

It's highly unlikely that Rees-Mogg and co will cave in. They're ideological fanatics, so as far as they're concerned caving in is something other people do.

Quote2. A referendum on May's deal, with remaining in the EU as a default option.
A referendum supported by May loyalists and remainers should be the most logical outcome.

The most logical outcome perhaps - but, again, Brexit and logic have little to do with each other. As I said above, a referendum which offers the choice between May's deal or remain will never be accepted by the hardliners.   

QuoteBut the adverserial British political system isn't built for compromise, and both May and Corbyn are sticking to their preferred options. May actually has the advantage of a deal negotiated with the EU, Corbyn has just another garden full of unicorns...

May has a deal which can't pass the Commons in its current form and could only pass if the EU and Ireland agreed to the sort of changes which they can in fact never agree to. The EU urged May to look at Corbyn's offer of support - CU plus close SM alignment - and seem to be a lot keener on that than the changes May wants. Naturally she's rejected that, as she wants to get it through with Tory and DUP votes. Whatever she really thinks about the CU and SM, she can never agree to a soft Brexit which includes membership of/alignment with either, let alone both. Her party would split and she knows it. As does Corbyn for that matter, which is why he could make that offer, safe in the knowledge that May could never agree to it.

QuoteMay might support another referendum to avert a no deal, Corbyn's hand would have to be forced by his own party.

I cannot see May agreeing to another referendum. The Brexit ultras would go ballistic, and May would never run the risk of being the Tory leader who called another vote, lost it, and thus lost Brexit.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 17, 2019, 09:24:39 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on February 17, 2019, 03:06:47 PM
Unfortunately logic doesn't seem to be of much use when it comes to Brexit.

Agreed, though the way the Brexit process is playing out is quite baffling...

QuoteIt's highly unlikely that Rees-Mogg and co will cave in. They're ideological fanatics, so as far as they're concerned caving in is something other people do.

Inprobable, agreed. Though would they really be willing to sacrifice their party and powerbase?

QuoteThe most logical outcome perhaps - but, again, Brexit and logic have little to do with each other. As I said above, a referendum which offers the choice between May's deal or remain will never be accepted by the hardliners.

I cannot see a majority for any other option..

QuoteMay has a deal which can't pass the Commons in its current form and could only pass if the EU and Ireland agreed to the sort of changes which they can in fact never agree to. The EU urged May to look at Corbyn's offer of support - CU plus close SM alignment - and seem to be a lot keener on that than the changes May wants. Naturally she's rejected that, as she wants to get it through with Tory and DUP votes. Whatever she really thinks about the CU and SM, she can never agree to a soft Brexit which includes membership of/alignment with either, let alone both. Her party would split and she knows it. As does Corbyn for that matter, which is why he could make that offer, safe in the knowledge that May could never agree to it.

What the EU likes about Corbyn's position is that he has less red lines, which means there is additional room for negotiation. If he would be involved in a  cross party compromise or ever come to power as a PM, both of which seem increasingly unlikely. But his aim for being aligned but outside of the internal market,  and still having all the benefits... is just not realistic.

QuoteI cannot see May agreeing to another referendum. The Brexit ultras would go ballistic, and May would never run the risk of being the Tory leader who called another vote, lost it, and thus lost Brexit.

I don't think she is going to keep the Tories together in a disastrous no deal. She might have to choose the rest of her party and her country over the ultras.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on February 17, 2019, 10:04:46 PM
Facebook is an out-of-control train wreck that is destroying democracy and must be brought under control. The final report of parliament's inquiry into fake news and disinformation does not use this language, precisely, but it is, nonetheless, the report's central message. And the language it does use is no less damning.

Facebook behaves like a "digital gangster". It considers itself to be "ahead of and beyond the law". It "misled" parliament. It gave statements that were "not true". Its CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, has treated British lawmakers with "contempt". It has pursued a "deliberate" strategy to deceive parliament.

In terms of how lawmakers across the globe need to think about Silicon Valley, the report is a landmark. The first really comprehensive attempt of a major legislative body to peer into the dark heart of a dark economy of data manipulation and voter influence. And to come up with a set of recommendations that its chair, the Conservative MP for Bournemouth, Damian Collins, says must involve "a radical shift in the balance of power between the platforms and the people".
A withering verdict: MPs report on Zuckerberg, Russia and Cambridge Analytica
Read more

The scale of the report – it drew from 170 written submissions and evidence from 73 witnesses who were asked more than 4,350 questions – is without precedent. And it's what contributes to making its conclusions so damning: that the government must now act. That Facebook must be regulated. That Britain's electoral laws must be re-written from the bottom up; the report is unequivocal, they are not "fit for purpose". And that the government must now open an independent investigation into foreign interference in all British elections since 2014.

Cambridge Analytica was already on the committee's radar when the scandal broke in March last year. But, over the ensuing weeks and months, it interviewed an extraordinary cast of characters to drill down into the underlying machinery of the new political power structures. And the result – a doorstopper of a report covering multiple interconnected issues – damns Facebook not just once or twice but time and time again.

https://www.hifisentralen.no/forumet/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Ftechnology%2F2019%2Ffeb%2F18%2Fa-digital-gangster-destroying-democracy-the-damning-verdict-on-facebook (https://www.hifisentralen.no/forumet/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Ftechnology%2F2019%2Ffeb%2F18%2Fa-digital-gangster-destroying-democracy-the-damning-verdict-on-facebook)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on February 18, 2019, 12:30:15 AM
I had a Brexit-themed letter in the Times on Saturday:

'Those responsible for Brexit decision-making should be cognisant of the disastrous consequences of focusing on the goal rather than the process. This is well articulated in Oliver Burkeman's book The Antidote, where in the chapter Goal Crazy he identifies the disastrous Everest expedition of 1996 as a classic example of such a misguided approach. The obsession with reaching the summit of Everest meant that considerations of timing and safety were ignored, as a result of which many members of the expedition, including two of the leaders died.
In its way exactly the same goal-led obsession is governing Brexit. We have to leave on March 29 regardless of the increasingly obvious disastrous consequences to our nation.'

I drew the attention of my wife and daughter to my letter. My daughter said that she liked it but said that I had a morbid obsession with the 1996 Everest disaster. My wife liked it too but said that I am a 'show off'.
::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on February 18, 2019, 12:54:59 AM
 Yes you even promote composers the plebs haven't heard of.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on February 18, 2019, 02:29:08 AM
Quote from: Que on February 17, 2019, 09:24:39 PM

Inprobable, agreed. Though would they really be willing to sacrifice their party and powerbase?

Cast your mind back to the Major government in the 90s. The hardliners' obsession with the EU was one of the biggest factors in the Tories being slaughtered in the 1997 election. Did the ultras care? Not a bit. They have form for this.

QuoteI cannot see a majority for any other option..

There probably isn't a majority for a remain/May's deal referendum either, at least not right now. It isn't just most Tories and the DUP who would oppose it, there are Labour MPs who would vote against it too. That includes more than a dozen on the front bench, who have warned that they'd resign if Corbyn backed it. That may change if we get to a situation in which a referendum is the only viable option to avoid a no deal, but we're not there yet (and we may well not get there at all).   

QuoteWhat the EU likes about Corbyn's position is that he has less red lines, which means there is additional room for negotiation. If he would be involved in a  cross party compromise or ever come to power as a PM, both of which seem increasingly unlikely. But his aim for being aligned but outside of the internal market,  and still having all the benefits... is just not realistic.

It's obviously flawed, but probably still more realistic than May demanding the sort of changes to the backstop that the ERG are pressing for - as you say, it leaves more room for negotiation. But in any case there's no prospect of May agreeing to it, so as of now it's largely academic.

QuoteI don't think she is going to keep the Tories together in a disastrous no deal. She might have to choose the rest of her party and her country over the ultras.

The problem is the ERG have the numbers to vote down any deal they don't like and there are more of them than the Tory remainers. As a result, every time she's had a choice of standing up to the ERG or caving in to them she's chosen the latter. Whichever way she jumps she'll lose a wing of her party, so it may well be that they do split. Here's hoping.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on February 18, 2019, 04:39:17 AM
Quote from: The new erato on February 18, 2019, 12:54:59 AM
Yes you even promote composers the plebs haven't heard of.
Haha!
8)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 19, 2019, 10:26:36 PM
Yesterday I attended a lecture on current affairs of the EU, given by the recently retired (Dutch) secretary-general of the Commission (highest civil-servant).

On Brexit he was unreservedly pessimistic...

It seems that the EU is bracing for impact, rather than preparing for last minute concessions...

Which means that the endgame will be taking place in British parliament.

Q

PS He also mentioned that civil servants at the EU who are British nationals will keep their jobs, and that some of them have indeed recently been appointed to high ranking positions. Nonetheless, sofar half of them have assumed the nationality of another member state.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on February 20, 2019, 05:15:11 AM
Any views on current political developments in the UK with Labour and Conservative MPs leaving their respective parties and forming an Independent group? Personally I'm pleased to see anything which reaffirms liberal values in the face of increasing intolerance and polarisation.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on February 20, 2019, 05:26:20 AM
Quote from: Que on February 19, 2019, 10:26:36 PM
PS He also mentioned that civil servants at the EU who are British nationals will keep their jobs, and that some of them have indeed recently been appointed to high ranking positions. Nonetheless, sofar half of them have assumed the nationality of another member state.

British pride, I presume.  :D

No, really, I have the vivid impression that British politicians irrespective of persuasion have collectively decided to make fools of themsselves big time. We want out but also in, we want in but also out and actually we don't even know what we want anymore. It's sad to see such a glorious country having become the laughing stock of the world.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on February 20, 2019, 07:10:48 AM
Quote from: Florestan on February 20, 2019, 05:26:20 AM
British pride, I presume.  :D

No, really, I have the vivid impression that British politicians irrespective of persuasion have collectively decided to make fools of themsselves big time. We want out but also in, we want in but also out and actually we don't even know what we want anymore. It's sad to see such a glorious country having become the laughing stock of the world.
I don't disagree with this assessment, which is rather sad really. I hope that more MPs of all political persuasions defect to the new Independent cross-party group.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on February 20, 2019, 04:37:09 PM
Quote from: vandermolen on February 20, 2019, 05:15:11 AM
Any views on current political developments in the UK with Labour and Conservative MPs leaving their respective parties and forming an Independent group? Personally I'm pleased to see anything which reaffirms liberal values in the face of increasing intolerance and polarisation.

On the whole, not a very impressive bunch as far as I'm concerned. Joan Ryan and Mike Gapes are rather fond of condemning the entire Labour Party as "a racist party" because of the actions of a tiny minority of idiots, thus tarring hundreds of thousands of people with that brush. Chris Leslie brushed off questions about Angela Smith's rather unfortunate comments with the response that such questions are being asked because there are powerful vested interests out to squash the Independent Group. I wonder if he would have been so understanding if that comment had come from a Corbyn-supporting MP; I'll stick my neck out and hazard a guess that he wouldn't.

But the real problems with this lot relate to policy. Anna Soubry said in the press conference that she fully supported the coalition's austerity policies. That's the vicious shit meted out to the poorest people by that sociopathic tosser Osborne that she's talking about. She has no problem with that, but I wonder what any other Labour MPs thinking of jumping ship think about it. The Labour right objects to being called Red Tories, but if they leave Labour to join MPs who voted for austerity, and in Soubry's case voice strong support for it, then they can't really complain.

But then maybe they won't mind Soubry's comments so much: it's the right of the party which was so utterly spineless in its capitulation to the Tories' austerity agenda before Corbyn won the leadership. That resulted in the Tories having more or less carte blanche to do what they wanted, safe in the knowledge that Labour's response would be "me too, but even more!", so perhaps these are their more natural political allies. Some from the New Labour era, including John Rentoul, Philip Collins and Blair himself, have made it quite clear that they don't object to Corbyn because they think he can't win: they still wouldn't support any government with his policies even if they thought it would win, because they don't want a left wing government. They'd rather have a Tory government led by the likes of Cameron or May, and if that means the Tories staying in power to shaft the very people the Labour right claims to care about, well, so be it. It would seem that that attitude is quite prevalent among Labour MPs too.

It's worth noting that while the right of the party has been engaged in a near continuous fit of the vapours ever since Corbyn won the leadership, there is no indication that they've learned anything from it or paused to reflect on why it happened. Their only "explanation" appears to be that a hitherto undetected army of hundreds of thousands of Trots and Stalinists was lying in wait for the day that someone from the left of the party won the leadership, at which point they all joined en masse. At no point does it appear to have occurred to them that maybe an awful lot of people were pissed off with the "choice" between a very right wing party and an ever so slightly less right wing party and wanted a genuine alternative. For similar reasons they couldn't believe the result of the 2017 election, when Corbyn's policies actually turned out to be rather popular. For all their hatred of Corbyn, the right hasn't even come close to coming up with an alternative set of policies which could fire the enthusiasm of Labour voters and provide a basis for winning power.   

At present it seems the only thing that really binds the IG together is opposition to Brexit and supporting a referendum, but that's nowhere near enough. If they want to be a party with a coherent set of policies they've got an awful lot of work to do. Maybe they'll manage it, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Just calling themselves "moderates" isn't going to be enough either. Yvette Cooper is often hailed as a "Labour moderate", yet she had a key role in screwing over chronically ill and disabled people with the now notorious Work Capability Assessment, one of the biggest social policy disasters of recent years, which is still ongoing and has driven thousands upon thousands of vulnerable people into destitution and in some cases early graves. If that's an example of moderation then the word is drained of all meaning.

I suspect there will be a lot more Labour than Tory MPs who join the IG. Since the Attlee government, there have only been two occasions when the left has been in control of the Labour party: in the early 1980s, and now. For the rest of the time it's been the right in control, never more so than during the New Labour era. When the right has been in control and it's been the left on the margins, the left were expected to suck it up for the good of the party. Yet when the boot has been on the other foot, a section of the right has flounced out in a huff. It's happening now, and it happened in the early 80s with the formation of the SDP. That resulted in the anti-Tory vote splitting, and 18 years of Tory rule. Early polling suggests that the IG would hurt Labour a lot more than the Tories in an election, so history may be about to repeat itself. Isn't that a cheery thought? 

So, we'll have to wait and see how things develop, but I can't see me getting on board with the Funny Tingers as things stand.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on February 21, 2019, 12:47:18 AM
Thanks for such an interesting analysis. Let's wait and see what happens.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on February 22, 2019, 02:34:05 PM
Heidi Allen has said the Funny Tingers will support May in any vote of no confidence. This must be the "new, fresh" politics Chris Leslie was talking about. Apparently they don't want to do anything which could result in a general election. I'm not surprised - at this rate they'd be lucky to keep their deposits, let alone their seats. With this, Angela Smith "misspeaking" and Soubry's enthusiastic endorsement of Osborne's austerity they're really off to a flier.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 23, 2019, 07:33:53 AM
Recent British foreign ministers seem to have knack in making new European friends....

Another example of Jeremy Hunt being out of his depth, saying that Slovenia was a "Soviet vassal state", apparently unaware of the history of Yugoslavia. (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/23/soviet-vassal-state-jeremy-hunt-makes-gaffe-in-slovenia)

I guess the motto of Brexit is: "Why be part of Europe, if you don't have any clue whatsoever what it is about?"
Which actually makes a lot of sense to me...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 02, 2019, 02:33:03 AM
The deadline is so close,  but so little is certain about the endgame...

I still think that it's either going to be May's deal, or a referendum on that deal.

Barnier thinks May's chances have improved, and is working on an add on to the withdrawal treaty.

I think he is right. A significant part of the Tory hardliners will climb back on board when faced with the alternative options of a delay, a soft Brexit or a referendum with the possibility of no Brexit. If they will be joined by Labour leavers, May might just make it....

In case May's deal is approved or a referendum on it, a delay is inevitable...
But not beyond the EU elections in May, because the Germans have identified serious legal problems if the UK wouldn't participate in those elections while still a member state. And they're quite right.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 02, 2019, 04:31:48 PM
Quote from: Que on March 02, 2019, 02:33:03 AM
The deadline is so close,  but so little is certain about the endgame...

I still think that it's either going to be May's deal, or a referendum on that deal.

Barnier thinks May's chances have improved, and is working on an add on to the withdrawal treaty.

I think he is right. A significant part of the Tory hardliners will climb back on board when faced with the alternative options of a delay, a soft Brexit or a referendum with the possibility of no Brexit. If they will be joined by Labour leavers, May might just make it....

In case May's deal is approved or a referendum on it, a delay is inevitable...
But not beyond the EU elections in May, because the Germans have identified serious legal problems if the UK wouldn't participate in those elections while still a member state. And they're quite right.

Q

There have been reports claiming that many of the hardliners are now willing to vote May's deal through. Even if true, that doesn't necessarily mean May will win the vote. The first vote was lost by a margin of 230, so she'd have to win over 115 MPs while keeping all of those who voted for it last time. There are about 20 hardcore Tory rebels who will probably vote against it in any circumstances, and they alone pose a major obstacle to getting it through. Then there's the DUP as well.

But it may be that it just about scrapes over the line, especially if enough Labour MPs in leave-voting seats decide to put saving their own skins ahead of the national interest. And if that happens, what a miserable, wretched state of affairs it will be. If it passes, we'll be leaving with a deal that virtually no-one wants, voted through by MPs on both sides of the argument simply to prevent some other scenario which they regard as even worse. And even then, that won't be the end of it. Not just because negotiations on the future relationship haven't even started yet, but also because the situation changes completely once we're out.  A referendum then becomes almost impossible, and once May has served her purpose of "delivering Brexit", she'll be defenestrated ASAP and replaced by a hard Brexiteer who can get on with the job of giving us as hard a Brexit as possible - and if that means tearing up the withdrawal agreement in the process, they'll probably do it.

At this point the only hope left appears to be the amendment that would see May's deal voted through subject to approval in a referendum. If that doesn't happen we're pretty much screwed.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 03, 2019, 05:33:44 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on March 02, 2019, 04:31:48 PM
And if that happens, what a miserable, wretched state of affairs it will be. If it passes, we'll be leaving with a deal that virtually no-one wants, voted through by MPs on both sides of the argument simply to prevent some other scenario which they regard as even worse. And even then, that won't be the end of it. Not just because negotiations on the future relationship haven't even started yet, but also because the situation changes completely once we're out.  A referendum then becomes almost impossible, and once May has served her purpose of "delivering Brexit", she'll be defenestrated ASAP and replaced by a hard Brexiteer who can get on with the job of giving us as hard a Brexit as possible - and if that means tearing up the withdrawal agreement in the process, they'll probably do it.

Quite agree with your first point. This is only the withdrawal agreement in what is basically a blind Brexit - the game has just begun...
Though I do not expect hardliners to take over from May. If they do, that would mean the end of the Tory government, and possibly the Conservative party. I rather expect the UK will move towards a soft Brexit in the time to come. If not... I could see Scotland, and possibly Northern Ireland, leaving...

QuoteAt this point the only hope left appears to be the amendment that would see May's deal voted through subject to approval in a referendum. If that doesn't happen we're pretty much screwed.

If May doesn't get her deal through as it is, that might be her only option. But there is a lot of resistance amongst Tories and quite a few within Labour - including its leadership - against a referendum

I think Corbyn would actually prefer May's deal to go through (without his official support), then to take over government and negotiate his own preferred final deal on the future relationship with the EU. For this reason I think Corbyn will not prevent Labour leavers to vote for May's deal. He is going to earn that badge as "Brexit enabler"..... 

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 03, 2019, 06:34:47 AM
Quote from: Que on March 03, 2019, 05:33:44 AM
Quite agree with your first point. This is only the withdrawal agreement in what is basically a blind Brexit - the game has just begun...
Though I do not expect hardliners to take over from May. If they do, that would mean the end of the Tory government, and possibly the Conservative party. I rather expect the UK will move towards a soft Brexit in the time to come. If not... I could see Scotland, and possibly Northern Ireland, leaving...

Any successor to May who tries to shift direction to a soft Brexit would run into the same problem as her: the ERG and co will scream blue murder and prevent anything they deem insufficiently ideologically pure from passing. And once we're out they won't be deterred by the thought that Brexit might not happen at all. It could indeed lead to the break-up of the UK, but their fanaticism is such that they'll probably take that risk.

QuoteIf May doesn't get her deal through as it is, that might be her only option. But there is a lot of resistance amongst Tories and quite a few within Labour - including its leadership - against a referendum

I think Corbyn would actually prefer May's deal to go through (without his official support), then to take over government and negotiate his own preferred final deal on the future relationship with the EU. For this reason I think Corbyn will not prevent Labour leavers to vote for May's deal. He is going to earn that badge as "Brexit enabler"..... 

Q

Corbyn is in a no-win situation though. His pro-referendum MPs have been berating him for months for not coming out in favour of another vote, while other MPs supported him not doing so. But now that he has come out for another referendum that latter group of MPs is slagging him off. The PLP is much more split on another referendum than the membership, which means Corbyn is going to get a lot of stick no matter which way he goes. In my view, those on the Labour side who actually vote for May's deal are the Brexit enablers. Ironically, some of them will be the same people who have called Corbyn a Brexit enabler. Self-awareness tends not to be their strong point.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on March 03, 2019, 05:28:05 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on March 03, 2019, 06:34:47 AM
Any successor to May who tries to shift direction to a soft Brexit would run into the same problem as her: the ERG and co will scream blue murder and prevent anything they deem insufficiently ideologically pure from passing. And once we're out they won't be deterred by the thought that Brexit might not happen at all. It could indeed lead to the break-up of the UK, but their fanaticism is such that they'll probably take that risk.


I suspect that to people like ReesMogg, getting rid of those pestiferous socialists in Scotland is a feature, not a bug.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 06, 2019, 04:03:09 PM
Quote from: JBS on March 03, 2019, 05:28:05 PM
I suspect that to people like ReesMogg, getting rid of those pestiferous socialists in Scotland is a feature, not a bug.

Some of them do seem to think that, which for members of the Conservative and Unionist Party is pretty extraordinary.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on March 12, 2019, 01:05:08 PM
They voted down the deal again, I just read, and just over 2 weeks to go. Someone needs to explain this to me. Britain is going to be set adrift the the North Atlantic with no trade or immigration agreements with the continent? All those EU citizens working in Britain are going to be crowded on a barge and towed back to Dunkirk and dumped unceremoniously into the channel waters?

Donald Trump is starting to seem relatively reasonable to me...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on March 12, 2019, 03:56:33 PM
Actually, the fact the deal has been voted down means, for now, that the possibility of staying in the EU remains open, although a distant possibility, as it would require a number of things to happen, none of them by any means certain. These 'things', being a convoluted sequence of votes in Parliament leading to the possibility of another Referendum (itself completely unpredictable, such is the parlous state of logic when up against ideology), or revoking Article 50 (i.e cancelling Brexit) for example.
But really it could go any way at the moment, I haven't even touched on most of the possibilities, we could even end up with May's Deal again.

You'll need to wait for others here for a more insightful view, but this page may offer some clarification.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46393399
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on March 12, 2019, 04:07:42 PM
Quote from: Iota on March 12, 2019, 03:56:33 PM
Actually, the fact the deal has been voted down means, for now, that the possibility of staying in the EU remains open, although a distant possibility, as it would require a number of things to happen, none of them by any means certain. These 'things', being a convoluted sequence of votes in Parliament leading to the possibility of another Referendum (itself completely unpredictable, such is the parlous state of logic when up against ideology), or revoking Article 50 (i.e cancelling Brexit) for example.
But really it could go any way at the moment, I haven't even touched on most of the possibilities, we could even end up with May's Deal again.

You'll need to wait for others here for a more insightful view, but this page may offer some clarification.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46393399

I did see that BBC article, but it didn't answer the question, "what are they thinking?"  Same thing a one year old is thinking when he throws his rattle on the floor, I suspect. :)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 13, 2019, 12:28:47 AM
I've been involved in efforts by the Dutch government to get Brexit related emergency legislation through (our) parliament before the deadline. Most believe we won't need it in the end. Though chances of an "accidental" hard Brexit seem to be slim, I'm not entirely sure....

I think the EU will only agree to either a long term delay (of at least a year) or a short term delay to mid May to accomodate a 2nd referendum.  So in all likelihood, those will be the final options in Westminster.

Q



Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 13, 2019, 08:00:01 AM
Quote from: Que on March 13, 2019, 12:28:47 AM
I've been involved in efforts by the Dutch government to get Brexit related emergency legislation through (our) parliament before the deadline. Most believe we won't need it in the end. Though chances of an "accidental" hard Brexit seem to be slim, I'm not entirely sure....

I think the EU will only agree to either a long term delay (of at least a year) or a short term delay to mid May to accomodate a 2nd referendum.  So in all likelihood, those will be the final options in Westminster.

Q

There's already talk of May trying to bring the WA back for a third vote (because the public having a second vote would be undemocratic but the Commons having a second then a third vote is obviously fine). If it happens, the intention is to make the choice between her deal or no deal, in the hope that with no time left to do anything else, her deal would be passed because even most of the hardcore Brexiters would shit themselves at the idea of no deal actually happening. If she were to get her deal through that way it would be blatantly obvious that it was only being passed extremely grudgingly, and very few MPs would be able to sell it to their constituents with any enthusiasm. That would mean that when the public realises what a miserable deal it is resentment would grow and we'd be back in a situation similar to what we have now: the Brexit ultras demanding a much harder/no deal Brexit, and remainers arguing for a softer Brexit or a new referendum.

Of course it may be that May doesn't manage to get a third vote on the WA (she certainly shouldn't be allowed to, given the thumping majorities against it in the the first and second votes). Perhaps the Commons will find a way to wrest control of the process from her, in which case all bets are off.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on March 13, 2019, 09:41:51 AM
The first time I was eligible to vote was the 1975 referendum to decide if we should leave the EEC (EU). There was no vote to see if people wanted to join as the then Prime Minister, Edward Heath, simply took us in. Out of loyalty to the Commonwealth I voted to leave the EEC (EU) but the majority voted to stay in which, of course, I accepted. Therefore, any subsequent referendum, including the one of 2016, ignores the 'democratic wishes of the British people' which we have heard so much about from the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 13, 2019, 04:49:21 PM
It looks as though "third time lucky" is indeed May's "strategy". But there is apparently a section of Erskine May which allows the Speaker to stop the government repeatedly submitting the same motion until it gets the answer it wants. It's usually not needed because governments don't normally do it, but it could be applied in this case.

https://news.sky.com/story/an-ancient-rule-means-bercow-could-take-drastic-action-on-brexit-11664555 (https://news.sky.com/story/an-ancient-rule-means-bercow-could-take-drastic-action-on-brexit-11664555)

I doubt Bercow will do it, but I hope he does. May is effectively trying to blackmail MPs into voting her deal through, which must surely rank as an abuse of parliament. If Bercow doesn't use this rule the only possible alternative to a third vote on May's deal is the Commons wresting control from her. That's possible, but by no means certain.

Quote from: vandermolen on March 13, 2019, 09:41:51 AM
The first time I was eligible to vote was the 1975 referendum to decide if we should leave the EEC (EU). There was no vote to see if people wanted to join as the then Prime Minister, Edward Heath, simply took us in. Out of loyalty to the Commonwealth I voted to leave the EEC (EU) but the majority voted to stay in which, of course, I accepted. Therefore, any subsequent referendum, including the one of 2016, ignores the 'democratic wishes of the British people' which we have heard so much about from the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg.

A few months ago BBC Parliament showed a debate between Tony Benn and Roy Jenkins during the 1975 referendum campaign. From the bit I saw, the quality of the debate, in terms of both tone and content, was light years removed from the drivel we got three years ago and have had ever since. Had those standards been maintained I've no doubt someone like Farage would have been exposed as the opportunistic gobshite he is. Ditto Johnson, Gove, Rees-Mogg etc..
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on March 13, 2019, 10:57:17 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on March 13, 2019, 04:49:21 PM
It looks as though "third time lucky" is indeed May's "strategy". But there is apparently a section of Erskine May which allows the Speaker to stop the government repeatedly submitting the same motion until it gets the answer it wants. It's usually not needed because governments don't normally do it, but it could be applied in this case.

https://news.sky.com/story/an-ancient-rule-means-bercow-could-take-drastic-action-on-brexit-11664555 (https://news.sky.com/story/an-ancient-rule-means-bercow-could-take-drastic-action-on-brexit-11664555)

I doubt Bercow will do it, but I hope he does. May is effectively trying to blackmail MPs into voting her deal through, which must surely rank as an abuse of parliament. If Bercow doesn't use this rule the only possible alternative to a third vote on May's deal is the Commons wresting control from her. That's possible, but by no means certain.

A few months ago BBC Parliament showed a debate between Tony Benn and Roy Jenkins during the 1975 referendum campaign. From the bit I saw, the quality of the debate, in terms of both tone and content, was light years removed from the drivel we got three years ago and have had ever since. Had those standards been maintained I've no doubt someone like Farage would have been exposed as the opportunistic gobshite he is. Ditto Johnson, Gove, Rees-Mogg etc..

With Farage we just got what we expected, but I also saw and heard Gove and Johnson 'in action' on the BBC during those 2016 days, reacting to loads of well informed people with serious concerns, and they just mocked them, whilst grinning and laughing, and shaking their heads in an arrogant and patronizing way. It was a shameful thing to watch.
Right now I just keep my fingers crossed that EU diplomats and politicians will be/remain sensible and responsible, and avoid reactionary and 'Schadenfreude' behaviour as much as possible. Despite the Theatre of Absurdity, this Brexit 'thing' is an extremely serious matter.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 14, 2019, 06:15:12 PM
Quote from: Marc on March 13, 2019, 10:57:17 PM
With Farage we just got what we expected, but I also saw and heard Gove and Johnson 'in action' on the BBC during those 2016 days, reacting to loads of well informed people with serious concerns, and they just mocked them, whilst grinning and laughing, and shaking their heads in an arrogant and patronizing way. It was a shameful thing to watch.

And despite the fact that the Leave campaign's rhetoric has turned to dust on contact with reality, millions of Brits are apparently still convinced that Brexit is going to be great, with any objections dismissed by a cry of "justgerronwivvit!".  It's so depressing to watch. May will probably squeak home on Tuesday, despite the fact that repeatedly submitting the same motion when it's already been rejected is against parliamentary rules because it's so blatantly undemocratic, and it will be hailed by the rightwing press as a triumph.


QuoteRight now I just keep my fingers crossed that EU diplomats and politicians will be/remain sensible and responsible, and avoid reactionary and 'Schadenfreude' behaviour as much as possible. Despite the Theatre of Absurdity, this Brexit 'thing' is an extremely serious matter.

I think the rest of the EU just wants us gone now. There was genuine sadness in the period immediately following the referendum, but I get the distinct impression now that they've had enough. Their patience over the last two and a half years when confronted by the behaviour of the government, the belligerence and sense of entitlement of the Brexiters and the utter shambles in parliament has been remarkable, but there's been a noticeable change of tone in the last week or two. I think that patience has finally run out. 

Brexit may not have created the divisions in British society, but it has provided a focus around which to amplify them. The country which has been laid bare by this process is one disfigured by deep-rooted problems which were created in Westminster but for which the EU has proved to be a convenient scapegoat. Those problems won't be solved by leaving the EU, if anything they will be exacerbated, and that's not going to be pretty. When leave voters realise they aren't going to get what the Brexiters told them they'd get they'll be angry. Instead of blaming themselves they'll probably blame the EU and Remainers. The latter willl in turn be angry at the fact that so many warnings went unheeded by the leading Brexiters and leave voters. I cannot see a way this ends at all well.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on March 15, 2019, 02:45:29 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on March 14, 2019, 06:15:12 PM
And despite the fact that the Leave campaign's rhetoric has turned to dust on contact with reality, millions of Brits are apparently still convinced that Brexit is going to be great, with any objections dismissed by a cry of "justgerronwivvit!".  It's so depressing to watch. May will probably squeak home on Tuesday, despite the fact that repeatedly submitting the same motion when it's already been rejected is against parliamentary rules because it's so blatantly undemocratic, and it will be hailed by the rightwing press as a triumph.


I think the rest of the EU just wants us gone now. There was genuine sadness in the period immediately following the referendum, but I get the distinct impression now that they've had enough. Their patience over the last two and a half years when confronted by the behaviour of the government, the belligerence and sense of entitlement of the Brexiters and the utter shambles in parliament has been remarkable, but there's been a noticeable change of tone in the last week or two. I think that patience has finally run out. 

Brexit may not have created the divisions in British society, but it has provided a focus around which to amplify them. The country which has been laid bare by this process is one disfigured by deep-rooted problems which were created in Westminster but for which the EU has proved to be a convenient scapegoat. Those problems won't be solved by leaving the EU, if anything they will be exacerbated, and that's not going to be pretty. When leave voters realise they aren't going to get what the Brexiters told them they'd get they'll be angry. Instead of blaming themselves they'll probably blame the EU and Remainers. The latter willl in turn be angry at the fact that so many warnings went unheeded by the leading Brexiters and leave voters. I cannot see a way this ends at all well.
Depressing that the 'shooter' in New Zealand claims to have been, to some extent, inspired by Brexit and Trump.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on March 15, 2019, 03:00:26 PM
Quote from: vandermolen on March 15, 2019, 02:45:29 PM
Depressing that the 'shooter' in New Zealand claims to have been, to some extent, inspired by Brexit and Trump.

And depressing that on one day Trump makes veiled threats that his supporters might 'get rough,' and the next day, after one of his apparent supporters murdered 49 people, he says he doesn't see white nationalism as a rising threat.

Chin up, friends in ol' blighty, your leaders may be craven, duplicitous imbeciles, but next to Trump, they are Pericles, Aristotle, Socrates...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 15, 2019, 04:08:57 PM
Quote from: vandermolen on March 15, 2019, 02:45:29 PM
Depressing that the 'shooter' in New Zealand claims to have been, to some extent, inspired by Brexit and Trump.

Depressing yes, but not surprising - remember what Jo Cox's murderer shouted as he killed her. And yet, the toxic rhetoric in our "glorious" press continues unabated - betrayal, traitors, saboteurs, enemies of the people, etc..

We really are in an extraordinary situation. The Electoral Commission ruled that the leave campaign broke electoral law. That alone ought to have set alarm bells ringing about the integrity of the result. Throw in the evidence of Russian interference in the campaign and the use of micro-targeted political ads online, which circumvented the rules that are supposed to apply to political advertising, and there is more than enough reason to conclude that the 2016 vote was tainted - but the result is still allowed to stand. If Brexit happens, a highly dangerous precedent will be set: it will show that a democratic vote can be corrupted with virtual impunity.

Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on March 15, 2019, 03:00:26 PM
And depressing that on one day Trump makes veiled threats that his supporters might 'get rough,' and the next day, after one of his apparent supporters murdered 49 people, he says he doesn't see white nationalism as a rising threat.

It would appear that Trump's reaction to mass shootings is determined by the skin colour of the killer. White killer = mental illness problem, nothing to do with guns or far right nationalist ideology, mustn't politicise the issue. Dark skinned killer = rising Islamist terrorist threat, shows need for Trump's policies such as the travel ban, etc..

QuoteChin up, friends in ol' blighty, your leaders may be craven, duplicitous imbeciles, but next to Trump, they are Pericles, Aristotle, Socrates...

The difference is that while Trump is a moral cesspit on legs, at least you have a chance to vote him out. And even if, god forbid, he lasts the full eight years, he'll be gone after that. Unravelling the shitshow of Brexit is going to be a hell of a lot more difficult. Assuming Brexit happens, the effects may well be felt for generations.



Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Holden on March 17, 2019, 01:43:56 AM
I contributed to this thread in 2017 after spending a couple of weeks in the UK shortly after Brexit was voted in. I got a chance to talk to people about it and the major issues for pro Brexiteers seemed to be threefold.

The first issue was the number of Europeans working in the UK and supposedly taking jobs that could have gone to UK residents. The second was the pressure on the NHS (which you might be surprised to hear, is highly regarded overseas). The third was that propping up weak economies from member states (I believe Greece and Spain were quoted) would subsequently weaken the British economy.

In four weeks time I will be returning to the UK (and Eire) and this will be after the March 29th deadline. In April 2017 the currency conversion rate was that 62 British pence equaled one Australian dollar. At this point in time that is now 54 British pence so it appears to me that the Brexit situation hasn't harmed the economy at this point. It's a similar story for the USD but the change isn't dramatic.

I'm there for nearly eight weeks and it will be interesting to once again talk to the 'man/woman in the street' to see if anything has changed.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on March 18, 2019, 11:39:49 AM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on March 13, 2019, 08:00:01 AMOf course it may be that May doesn't manage to get a third vote on the WA (she certainly shouldn't be allowed to, given the thumping majorities against it in the the first and second votes). Perhaps the Commons will find a way to wrest control of the process from her, in which case all bets are off.

From what I read, this is the case. From the point of view of a spectator, anything but no-deal Brexit will be something of an anticlimax.  >:D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on March 18, 2019, 01:21:37 PM
De Gaulle once famously said "How can you govern a country with 258 varieties of cheese ? "

By which he meant that regionalisms and stubborness make it next to impossible to achieve national consensus. And, true to form, the French have written, rewritten and discarded 5 different Constitutions since they cut off Louis XVI's head. It seems the British people is experiencing the same kind of political impasse. When given a choice, they say NO !! to what's on the table, but can't seem to be able to express what is it that they might agree to. And yet, there are less than 258 varieties of cheese to choose from.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 18, 2019, 04:53:53 PM
Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on March 18, 2019, 11:39:49 AM
From what I read, this is the case.  >:D

It's partly the case. Bercow's ruling today means May can't just resubmit the motion that was rejected last week. In order for a third vote on her deal to happen there has to be a change of substance (rather than just a change of wording). The question is, what does Bercow deem to be a sufficiently substantial change?

Reports this evening suggest that May will try to agree a short extension with the EU, and then go for a third vote with the new extension. The argument would be that the revised exit date constitutes a substantial change compared to the second vote. One of the commentators on tonight's Newsnight seemed to think this would probably work as he thought it would be "very hard" to deny that a new exit date would constitute a substantial change. I'm not so sure about that. It's obviously possible that Bercow might agree, but I don't think it's such a foregone conclusion. The reason the second vote did not fall foul of the Erskine May convention on repeated votes is that it included new, legally binding documents agreed with the EU which impinged directly on one of the key components of the withdrawal agreement, i.e. the Irish backstop. Those new documents didn't have the impact May hoped, but still, they related directly to one of the most controversial parts of the agreement.

But that would not be the case if she tries to get a third vote by simply resubmitting the same motion with a new exit date tagged on. That would do nothing to change the terms under which we leave: it would offer no new interpretations, clarifications or reassurances of the agreement itself. So Bercow might take the view that an extension is not a sufficiently substantial change to justify a new vote. As he's been willing to stick his neck out with today's ruling, I'd be a bit surprised if he allowed a new vote which was based on an extension and nothing else, but it could go either way. Personally I hope he sticks to his guns: trying to browbeat MPs into passing something which they've already rejected twice by huge margins seems to me a pretty blatant abuse of power. Naturally, some Tories are outraged that Bercow is stopping them from doing this (at least for now), so we're now being spun the rather novel claim that we're in a constitutional crisis because the Speaker is insisting that the procedures of Parliament can't just be ignored.

As for the Commons wresting control from May, sadly a vote on that was lost last week by just two votes. It could still happen, but only if May can't get a third vote on her deal at all (which is obviously more likely if Bercow decides that tagging on a new exit date to the current deal doesn't constitute a substantial change), or she gets another vote but loses again.

Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on March 18, 2019, 11:39:49 AM
From the point of view of a spectator, anything but no-deal Brexit will be something of an anticlimax.  >:D

From an outsider's perspective Brexit must look like a fusion of Yes Minister with Monty Python. Unfortunately for those of us living here it's not so great. The country is now so polarised that whichever way Brexit goes from here, about half the country is going to be bloody angry. We just don't know which half yet.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on March 18, 2019, 05:26:38 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on March 18, 2019, 04:53:53 PM

From an outsider's perspective Brexit must look like a fusion of Yes Minister with Monty Python. Unfortunately for those of us living here it's not so great. The country is now so polarised that whichever way Brexit goes from here, about half the country is going to be bloody angry. We just don't know which half yet.

Well, if Brexit does not happen, the Leavers will be angry because it did not happen.
If Brexit does go through, the Remainers will be angry because it did happen, and the Leavers will be angry because Utopia did not result.

Since the Leavers will be angry either way, best thing would be for Brexit not to happen. That way only half of England will be angry.

This of course is in addition to all the other reasons not to Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on March 18, 2019, 05:57:38 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on March 18, 2019, 04:53:53 PMFrom an outsider's perspective Brexit must look like a fusion of Yes Minister with Monty Python. Unfortunately for those of us living here it's not so great. The country is now so polarised that whichever way Brexit goes from here, about half the country is going to be bloody angry. We just don't know which half yet.

As a person living in Trump's America I can sympathise.

Quote from: JBS on March 18, 2019, 05:26:38 PM
Well, if Brexit does not happen, the Leavers will be angry because it did not happen.
If Brexit does go through, the Remainers will be angry because it did happen, and the Leavers will be angry because Utopia did not result.

Since the Leavers will be angry either way, best thing would be for Brexit not to happen. That way only half of England will be angry.

This of course is in addition to all the other reasons not to Brexit.

Maybe no deal Brexit is best. Perhaps it will be clear what an idiotic idea it was and there will be another referendum, with a Join campaign and  and Remain (out) campaign. Only half kidding.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 21, 2019, 03:13:35 PM
(https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/politics/2019/03/20/BOB210319_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqnxsVzbFt55yT5iapkHrLYSrYCmauQjceYehP3XdL8hQ.jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 23, 2019, 01:14:08 AM
So, the EU made sure that all options (May deal - no deal - soft Brexit - no Brexit) are still available to the UK parliament and provided some time to think about it... The EU wanted to make sure that whatever happens, it is the own choice and responsibility of the UK. And I think they succeeded in that.

The hope in avoiding a no deal hard Brexit has however faded amongst EU leaders:

'Hope dies last': fatalism among EU leaders as no-deal Brexit looks likely (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/22/brexit-uk-has-chance-to-rethink-the-whole-thing-say-eu-leaders)

Will Westminster rise to the occasion?  ::)

I have my doubts.... It seems that due to the referendum result most MP's are completely paralysed by the fear of going against the wishes of the electorate. I would be curious to see if they have the guts to opt for a long delay in order to work out a different, softer Brexit. And a referendum on May's deal doesn't make much sense now....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 23, 2019, 01:21:22 AM
Afterthought:

"Sources added that the EU would not rule out a second no-deal extension between 12 April and 22 May, should the British government seek to crash out but wish to have a buffer to prepare. "This is a managed no deal", said one diplomat."

If so, who is going to stop it? Jeremy Corbyn?  ???

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 24, 2019, 04:13:20 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D2dMop1X0AMq0IJ.png)

Mad as a box of frogs. This man is one of the favourites to succeed May to the highest office in the land - no wonder we're a laughing stock.

If his analogy is to be followed it means that once we're out of the EU we'll be spending years wandering in the wilderness. Although on the upside, we'll definitely, definitely reach the sunlit uplands Promised Land eventually. On the downside, by the time we get there the Promised Land will already have a trade deal with the EU and will offer us a deal on far inferior terms.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on March 24, 2019, 04:40:21 PM
Moses died without entering the Promised Land.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 24, 2019, 04:48:51 PM
Quote from: André on March 24, 2019, 04:40:21 PM
Moses died without entering the Promised Land.

[Brexiter logic] Only because he didn't believe hard enough in Brexit Exodus. [/Brexiter logic]
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on March 25, 2019, 03:59:54 PM
This evening headline: "Teresa May Loses Control of Brexit."  ???
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 25, 2019, 04:17:39 PM
This has been pretty clear for a long time, but it's still shameful:



'About half an hour ago Dominic Grieve, the Conservative pro-European, mentioned reports saying the cabinet has been taking Brexit decisions based on what is best for the Conservative party, not what is best for the country.

The Times columnist Rachel Sylvester has just published a column with more on this charge. Here is an extract.

I am told that the minutes of the cabinet meeting contain at least five references to the Tories' narrow political concerns. According to the official account, written by Sir Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary, ministers discussed how the government is "committed to delivering Brexit — not to do so would be damaging to the Conservative party". And in a clear sign of the political nature of the discussion chaired by the prime minister, the minutes end with the words: "The Conservative party wants to stay in government and get councillors elected. The arguments in parliament could jeopardise that."

It is extremely unusual for such language to creep into a civil service note — partisan debates are supposed to be limited to special political cabinet meetings from which officials are excluded. In fact the tone of the minutes was so extraordinary that the issue was raised at this morning's cabinet meeting by ministers who stressed the importance of governing in the national rather than the party interest.

This was, however, part of a pattern. One Whitehall source says: "In recent weeks there have been an increasing number of mentions in cabinet minutes about how Brexit has to be delivered for the sake of the Conservative party. That will be damning when the public inquiry into Brexit happens. The civil service are now finding ways of ensuring that the political decisions that are being taken will one day be fully understood."'
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: XB-70 Valkyrie on March 25, 2019, 10:13:09 PM
Will this lead to a unified Ireland and/or Scottish independence?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 25, 2019, 11:13:08 PM
Meanwhile...

European Commission - Press release
Brexit preparedness: EU completes preparations for possible "no-deal" scenario on 12 April
(http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-19-1813_en.htm)

"As it is increasingly likely that the United Kingdom will leave the European Union without a deal on 12 April, the European Commission has today completed its "no-deal" preparations."

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Pat B on March 27, 2019, 07:15:38 AM
Quote from: Que on March 25, 2019, 11:13:08 PM
"As it is increasingly likely that the United Kingdom will leave the European Union without a deal on 12 April, the European Commission has today completed its "no-deal" preparations."

From my (admittedly distant) perspective, that has looked like the most likely scenario since Parliament rejected May's proposal the second time. Mostly because it's the default if Parliament don't agree to anything else.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on March 27, 2019, 10:43:30 AM
May sweetens the deal by promising to resign?

Parliament will vote on Brexit alternatives? What's the point? They spent years negotiating exit terms with the EU. What purpose is there is voting on a hypothetical plan the the EU has not and will not agree to?

It seems there are exactly three options. Cancel Brexit, which the EU will probably go along with, May's plan, or no-deal Brexit. Why can't the Parliament see that?

Apropos of nothing, I heard a podcast with Preet Bharara (the former Federal Prosecutor fired by Trump) in which he interviewed a British journalist name Ed Luce. When Luce was asked whether U.S. or U.K. politics is more dysfunctional he said U.K., because in the U.S. you have Trump unhinged but most of the other political establishment is trying to hold to democratic norms, but in the British Parliament basically everyone has gone Trump.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on March 27, 2019, 11:41:06 AM
Yes, the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Pat B on March 27, 2019, 07:57:40 PM
Boris Johnson is now suddenly in favor of May's deal. Presumably this has absolutely nothing to do with the promise that if it passes, her job will become available.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 27, 2019, 10:30:02 PM
Hard Brexiteers have suddenly realised that if they don't support May's deal, there might be either a soft Brexit or no Brexit at all....

Brilliant!  ??? But probably too late by now, unless anything else will fail.

BTW, Corbyn has acted totally predictable.... Meaning that he didn't act at all, awaiting the whole thing to crash on the watch of the Tories and get his general elections. I think it's quite probable that he gets his general elections, but he is not going to win them (as leader of Labour).

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on March 27, 2019, 10:36:48 PM
Prime Minister's major legislative project is resoundingly rejected by her own party, twice, and she remains. But if her major legislative project passes, she will quit. This makes sense?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 28, 2019, 11:17:22 PM
As time on "Brexit Day" ticks away....

EU moves into crisis mode as it plans for no-deal Brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/28/eu-discusses-terms-for-talks-after-no-deal-brexit)

Today there will be a last vote on the exit agreement, without the joint declaration on a future relationship.

Interestingly, even if the exit agreement is rejected by Westminister, the EU is set to stick to its core elements as preconditions to any future agreement: 1) financial settlement (exit bill); 2) open Irish border; 3) preservation of citizen's rights.

In other words: there is no way around it.....

Also, I'd like to point out that payment of the exit bill and the preservation of an open Irish border are obligations under international law. This legitimises the EU to take (unilateral) actions to recuperate the money that is still owed by the UK and  opens the option to the Republic of Ireland to start proceedings at the International Court of Justice against the UK for violation of the Good Friday Agreement and a breach of good faith.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on March 29, 2019, 08:42:38 AM
O shit, I think we're about to jump into the abyss.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on March 29, 2019, 08:45:43 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D21fOPKX4AAqWgT?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on March 29, 2019, 08:47:13 AM
Ok, if I were to ask an MP that voted down May's deal again, what would they say they want? (Well, other than the ones that want to stay in the E.U.)  They actually want to leave with no agreement? They think May should negotiate a new deal in three days, after spending almost three years negotiating the current deal?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on March 29, 2019, 08:53:04 AM
Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on March 29, 2019, 08:47:13 AM
Ok, if I were to ask an MP that voted down May's deal again, what would they say they want? (Well, other than the ones that want to stay in the E.U.) 

Make Great Britain Great Again!  ;D

(So far they have succeeded only in making great fools of themselves -- no small achivement, to be sure).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on March 29, 2019, 09:08:10 AM
About 10 years ago I visited the U.K., London and Cambridge (my wife is a Cambridge graduate) and felt deep admiration for the country. It this point there is little trace of that admiration left. I would understand if the E.U. decides to effectively expel the UK by refusing to consider any further extensions to the exit process. The strong argument against that is that the EU members would also suffer economically and similar idiots in other EU countries would be emboldened.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on March 29, 2019, 09:16:28 AM
This was found in Pompeii, the so called "Pompeii masturbator", wanking as the ash cloud was approaching. Well this is a good metaphor for the British parliament.

(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/VuG1cISv6mY/hqdefault.jpg)

Actually it's maybe the best thing he could have done.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on March 29, 2019, 11:43:10 AM
Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on March 29, 2019, 09:08:10 AM
About 10 years ago I visited the U.K., London and Cambridge (my wife is a Cambridge graduate) and felt deep admiration for the country. It this point there is little trace of that admiration left.

Let's not exaggerate, though. At the darkest hour of Germany, people thought of Kant, Beethoven, Schiller and Goethe as much more representative of their nation than the thugs in power back then --- and they were right. For all their flaws and sins, the Brexiters are no Nazis by a long stretch, and we'll always have Shakespeare, Dickens, Mr. Bean and [insert your favorite British composer].  :laugh:
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on March 29, 2019, 12:04:02 PM
No, they're not Nazi's, more like a Monty Python skit.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on March 29, 2019, 12:17:23 PM
Quote from: Que on March 28, 2019, 11:17:22 PM
As time on "Brexit Day" ticks away....

EU moves into crisis mode as it plans for no-deal Brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/28/eu-discusses-terms-for-talks-after-no-deal-brexit)

Today there will be a last vote on the exit agreement, without the joint declaration on a future relationship.

Interestingly, even if the exit agreement is rejected by Westminister, the EU is set to stick to its core elements as preconditions to any future agreement: 1) financial settlement (exit bill); 2) open Irish border; 3) preservation of citizen's rights.

In other words: there is no way around it.....

Also, I'd like to point out that payment of the exit bill and the preservation of an open Irish border are obligations under international law. This legitimises the EU to take (unilateral) actions to recuperate the money that is still owed by the UK and  opens the option to the Republic of Ireland to start proceedings at the International Court of Justice against the UK for violation of the Good Friday Agreement and a breach of good faith.

Q

I have lost track of the "exit bill".  What is it supposed to cover?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 29, 2019, 12:40:04 PM
Quote from: JBS on March 29, 2019, 12:17:23 PM
I have lost track of the "exit bill".  What is it supposed to cover?

"£16.4bn (€18.5bn) towards the UK's contribution to the EU budget to 2020;
£18.2bn (€20.2bn) towards outstanding commitments for projects that have been signed off but not yet paid for by 2020 (The Reste à Liquider ("RAL") from successive Multiannual Financial Frameworks) to be paid up to 2028; and
£2.5bn (€2.7bn) for other financial liabilities such as pensions and other employee benefits after offset of assets.The payments towards the pension liabilities are estimated to be made until 2064.

The UK Government's updated estimate of the financial settlement in March 2019 is £37.8 billion (€41.8 billion)."


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_divorce_bill

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on March 29, 2019, 12:55:34 PM
Quote from: Que on March 29, 2019, 12:40:04 PM
"£16.4bn (€18.5bn) towards the UK's contribution to the EU budget to 2020;
£18.2bn (€20.2bn) towards outstanding commitments for projects that have been signed off but not yet paid for by 2020 (The Reste à Liquider ("RAL") from successive Multiannual Financial Frameworks) to be paid up to 2028; and
£2.5bn (€2.7bn) for other financial liabilities such as pensions and other employee benefits after offset of assets.The payments towards the pension liabilities are estimated to be made until 2064.

The UK Government's updated estimate of the financial settlement in March 2019 is £37.8 billion (€41.8 billion)."


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_divorce_bill

Q

Thank you. I think a whole lot of international legal wrangling is ahead of us on that issue.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on March 29, 2019, 01:04:40 PM
There is an alternative view here. Whilst the government and parliament have been obsessed with Brexit people have largely been allowed to get on with their lives with minimum government interference. The economy is largely doing well. Long Live Weak Government.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on March 29, 2019, 03:53:06 PM
Quote from: vandermolen on March 29, 2019, 01:04:40 PM
There is an alternative view here. Whilst the government and parliament have been obsessed with Brexit people have largely been allowed to get on with their lives with minimum government interference. The economy is largely doing well. Long Live Weak Government.

I read here that Brexit is a national obsession, cliffhanger politics at its worst.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/brits-pretend-theyre-sick-of-brexit-but-truth-is-theyre-obsessed/2019/03/25/87ba0202-4f02-11e9-bdb7-44f948cc0605_story.html?utm_term=.fce4d27a0b06 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/brits-pretend-theyre-sick-of-brexit-but-truth-is-theyre-obsessed/2019/03/25/87ba0202-4f02-11e9-bdb7-44f948cc0605_story.html?utm_term=.fce4d27a0b06)

Also, it seems that euroxexiters have suddenly become a lot less enthusiastic about unzipping their borders with Europe's:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/frexit-italeave-after-watching-brexit-other-european-countries-say-no-thanks/2019/03/29/7b6e059a-4be0-11e9-8cfc-2c5d0999c21e_story.html?utm_term=.3e7d6e5718e1 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/frexit-italeave-after-watching-brexit-other-european-countries-say-no-thanks/2019/03/29/7b6e059a-4be0-11e9-8cfc-2c5d0999c21e_story.html?utm_term=.3e7d6e5718e1)

Brexit may have served a purpose after all... ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 29, 2019, 04:40:40 PM
Quote from: vandermolen on March 29, 2019, 01:04:40 PM
There is an alternative view here. Whilst the government and parliament have been obsessed with Brexit people have largely been allowed to get on with their lives with minimum government interference. The economy is largely doing well. Long Live Weak Government.

The obvious counterargument to that is that there are huge problems in the UK that official economic stats don't reflect. The numbers may look good on the surface, but dig a bit deeper and you find an explosion in the number of people relying on food banks to survive, a similarly alarming increase in levels of in-work poverty and the number of children living in poverty, living standards that haven't really recovered from the crash of a decade ago, the ongoing benefit freeze driving ever more vulnerable people to the point where they can't make ends meet, people classed as employed even if they only work a couple of hours in a week (the scourge of ZHCs), others who may be employed but whose job doesn't pay anywhere near enough to live on, etc..  These are all really serious problems, but they're getting sod all coverage because of Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 29, 2019, 05:08:07 PM
Quote from: XB-70 Valkyrie on March 25, 2019, 10:13:09 PM
Will this lead to a unified Ireland and/or Scottish independence?

Both are possible. If we crash out with a no deal Brexit and see the return of a hard border in Ireland that would be hugely damaging to the Good Friday Agreement and the peace of the last 20 years. The DUP may have a lot of influence at present as they prop up the Tories in the Commons, but in the referendum the result in NI was 56-44 for remain, so they don't represent majority NI opinion on Brexit. If a no deal scenario were to cause a serious enough deterioration economically and politically, it is at least possible that there would be pressure for a border poll. If that were to happen it's impossible to say now if it would result in a vote for a united Ireland - we're a long way from it as things stand and it would depend on the circumstances - but it's possible. The DUP may see it as a credible threat, because Nigel Dodds (their leader at Westminster) has said they'd rather remain in the EU (even though they supported Brexit) than sign up to anything which they regard as a threat to NI's place in the UK.

The situation in Scotland is somewhat different. Scotland voted heavily for remain by 62-38. Any form of Brexit therefore means Scotland being dragged out of the EU against its will, and the harder the Brexit, the less support it will have in Scotland. If we crash out with no deal, there is one school of thought that says Scotland would never vote for independence as the rest of the UK is its main trading market, and it would therefore be way too risky to compound being wrenched out of the EU with a decision to leave the UK. That's possible, but it could go the other way. In the 2014 independence referendum the pro-union side was able to portray independence as the risky, leap in the dark option compared to the safer, better the devil you know option of staying in the UK (they also argued that voting to stay in the UK was the only way to protect Scotland's place in Europe - that's not gone so well). But if a hard/no deal Brexit looks certain to be economically disastrous, the "safety first" argument for staying in the UK no longer applies. It doesn't make independence less risky, but if staying in the UK looks likely to be a pretty terrible option anyway, there may be many Scots who conclude that they may as well roll the dice on independence. The other factor to consider is who replaces May as Tory leader: the likes of Johnson and Rees-Mogg may go down well in parts of England, but it's a different story north of the border.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on March 29, 2019, 11:37:49 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on March 29, 2019, 04:40:40 PM
The obvious counterargument to that is that there are huge problems in the UK that official economic stats don't reflect. The numbers may look good on the surface, but dig a bit deeper and you find an explosion in the number of people relying on food banks to survive, a similarly alarming increase in levels of in-work poverty and the number of children living in poverty, living standards that haven't really recovered from the crash of a decade ago, the ongoing benefit freeze driving ever more vulnerable people to the point where they can't make ends meet, people classed as employed even if they only work a couple of hours in a week (the scourge of ZHCs), others who may be employed but whose job doesn't pay anywhere near enough to live on, etc..  These are all really serious problems, but they're getting sod all coverage because of Brexit.

Yes, I think that you are right - rise in knife crime, homelessness  etc. The whole Brexit thing has been a complete disaster for which I blame David Cameron for calling what was bound to be a divisive referendum in the first place and then scuttling off when it didn't go his way. If Boris Johnson becomes PM I may emigrate.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 30, 2019, 12:12:43 AM
So the exit agreement was voted down for a 3rd time.

Note that Labour voted against, although Corbyn hasn't expressed any objection the actual content of the agreement.
Labour did this to prevent handing any Tory successor of May the keys of the next round of negotiations on the future relationship with the EU.

Previously, I predicted that May's deal would squeeze through with the support of hardline Tory Brexiteers and Labour leavers. But Rees-Mogg cs realised too late that they overplayed their hand...

My new prediction now: a long delay and general elections, with possibly a hung parliament as a result.
The next government by Labour, or led by Labour, will negotiate a softer Brexit - customs union + internal market, or something close. On which a referendum will be held since a large part of Labour and  a possible coalition partner is pro-remain. Chances are that by then, 1-2 years from now, sentiment will have firmly swung towards remain...

The alternative scenario will be that the Tories will crash the UK out of the EU without a deal.
But that seems unlikely...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on March 30, 2019, 02:20:01 AM
Guardian:

This was the day when Big Ben was supposed to ring at 11pm to mark the UK's departure from the EU. When the Red (white and blue) Arrows did a fly past. When new 50p coins were worth 40p. Instead, we were back in a looking-glass world where everyone knew less than they did before. It can't be long before no one knows anything. Back to the future.

Everything was up for grabs in Schrödinger's Brexit: when we were leaving, if we were leaving and how we were leaving; who would be the prime minister, and if there would be a general election. Anything and everything was still possible. Parliament had said something but no one could interpret the language it was speaking. A delegation of ministers was going to No 10 to speak to Lino, but there was no guarantee she would be there. She is lost even unto herself.

There was just one certainty. By voting with the government, Boris Johnson had traded his principles for his career. But then we had always known he would. Johnson's untrustworthiness is the only solid thing the country has left to hang on to. A Newtonian rock in a Quantum Brexit. We really are that far up shit creek.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: NikF4 on March 30, 2019, 03:03:47 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on March 29, 2019, 11:37:49 PM
Yes, I think that you are right - rise in knife crime, homelessness  etc. The whole Brexit thing has been a complete disaster for which I blame David Cameron for calling what was bound to be a divisive referendum in the first place and then scuttling off when it didn't go his way. If Boris Johnson becomes PM I may emigrate.

I hope it doesn't come to that, both that he becomes PM and as a result you and others feel to the need to emigrate. But here's my opinion - bearing in mind I don't usually post in political threads - of how I see things.
No matter what happens, everyone will get through it. It won't be quick or pleasant, but everyone will get through it. As usual, there will be political manoeuvring, power games, below the belt attempts at manipulating the masses, along with the ongoing unashamed dispensing of huge amounts of generic BS. As expected, there will even be comment and/or derison delivered with glee from the ignorant peanut gallery watching from near and far, despite their own recent past(s) and ongoing vulnerabilities on the world stage. But here, everyone will get through it, because that's what people do, that's what we're all built to do.
When I was 16 the best advice I've ever been given of any type was offered by my boss. It's a standard, a particularly tired old warhorse of a cliche, but none the worse for that. 'Never let the bastards get you down".
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on March 30, 2019, 03:31:00 AM
Quote from: NikF4 on March 30, 2019, 03:03:47 AM
I hope it doesn't come to that, both that he becomes PM and as a result you and others feel to the need to emigrate. But here's my opinion - bearing in mind I don't usually post in political threads - of how I see things.
No matter what happens, everyone will get through it. It won't be quick or pleasant, but everyone will get through it. As usual, there will be political manoeuvring, power games, below the belt attempts at manipulating the masses, along with the ongoing unashamed dispensing of huge amounts of generic BS. As expected, there will even be comment and/or derison delivered with glee from the ignorant peanut gallery watching from near and far, despite their own recent past(s) and ongoing vulnerabilities on the world stage. But here, everyone will get through it, because that's what people do, that's what we're all built to do.
When I was 16 the best advice I've ever been given of any type was offered by my boss. It's a standard, a particularly tired old warhorse of a cliche, but none the worse for that. 'Never let the bastards get you down".
Thanks Nik. I guess that I wouldn't really emigrate as I said that I'd do so, in my university days, if Mrs Thatcher came to power and I never did.

The Stephen Hawking commemorative coin features a Black Hole; it would have been a more appropriately symbol for the Brexit commemorative coin, which now has the wrong date on it.

(//)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: NikF4 on March 30, 2019, 03:59:19 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on March 30, 2019, 03:31:00 AM
Thanks Nik. I guess that I wouldn't really emigrate as I said that I'd do so, in my university days, if Mrs Thatcher came to power and I never did.


You're welcome. Yeah, I know your mention of emigrating is just an exclamation of frustration. But it's not the first I've heard in recent weeks. Most people in my apartment building are comfortable in a financial sense, but they've concerns about the current state of affairs and although I try not to get dragged into conversations with them about it they hold similar sentiments regarding the country and what happens next. Back during the Thatcher era the miner's strike was on the lips of the working class, but this is the first time I've seen almost everyone worried, all across the board.

And yes, if Cameron was any kind of a real man (perhaps I shouldn't use the that term nowadays... Instead, if he was any kind of real 'adult'?) he wouldn't have bolted. I try not to judge people, but his behaviour wasn't self serving, it was simple cowardice.

Anyway, I'm out of this thread.  8)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on April 01, 2019, 11:34:17 AM
Quote from: NikF4 on March 30, 2019, 03:59:19 AMAnd yes, if Cameron was any kind of a real man (perhaps I shouldn't use the that term nowadays... Instead, if he was any kind of real 'adult'?) he wouldn't have bolted. I try not to judge people, but his behaviour wasn't self serving, it was simple cowardice.

Anyway, I'm out of this thread.  8)

I blame Cameron for the referendum, but not for quitting. He was against leaving the union, how can he in good faith oversee the process? The real question is, if he was against leaving the union, how could he put such a momentous decision on a referendum? That's the insanity. If there was robust and legitimate support for leaving the union support would have come up through parliament and there would have been a parliament that could have seen it through.

May is another thing. My understand is she was "Remain" before the referendum, what led to the change of heart? The chance to be PM? Same as the Boris Johnson case.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on April 01, 2019, 10:45:59 PM
Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on April 01, 2019, 11:34:17 AM
I blame Cameron for the referendum, but not for quitting. He was against leaving the union, how can he in good faith oversee the process? The real question is, if he was against leaving the union, how could he put such a momentous decision on a referendum? That's the insanity. If there was robust and legitimate support for leaving the union support would have come up through parliament and there would have been a parliament that could have seen it through.

May is another thing. My understand is she was "Remain" before the referendum, what led to the change of heart? The chance to be PM? Same as the Boris Johnson case.

Very much agree with your comments here.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on April 03, 2019, 08:10:53 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on April 01, 2019, 10:45:59 PM
Very much agree with your comments here.

I would also suggest that Camron and his government share a large measure of blame for the success of Brexit, despite their opposition to it.  The prolonged "austerity" program that the conservatives put forward in response to the recession of 2008 created the conditions that made Brexit seem like a good idea to so many people. It seems to me it compounded the misery, particularly of those not well off, and fed cynicism.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on April 03, 2019, 12:44:22 PM
Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on April 03, 2019, 08:10:53 AM
I would also suggest that Camron and his government share a large measure of blame for the success of Brexit, despite their opposition to it.  The prolonged "austerity" program that the conservatives put forward in response to the recession of 2008 created the conditions that made Brexit seem like a good idea to so many people. It seems to me it compounded the misery, particularly of those not well off, and fed cynicism.
Indeed.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on April 03, 2019, 02:54:30 PM
Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on April 03, 2019, 08:10:53 AM
I would also suggest that Camron and his government share a large measure of blame for the success of Brexit, despite their opposition to it.  The prolonged "austerity" program that the conservatives put forward in response to the recession of 2008 created the conditions that made Brexit seem like a good idea to so many people. It seems to me it compounded the misery, particularly of those not well off, and fed cynicism.
I agree with you here as well.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on April 04, 2019, 06:50:09 AM
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/40B7/production/_106276561_brexit_flowchart_next_steps_02_april_v3_640-nc.png)

I like these flow diagrams that the BBC produces
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on April 04, 2019, 07:55:48 AM
One can almost discern the shadow of Teresa May's Brexit strategy. "The idiots voted leave, as PM I will try to put through a Brexit Plan that is as soft as can be agreed to, as close to remain as can be managed."
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 04, 2019, 10:15:58 PM
It seems a long delay and European elections in the UK are coming!  ???

Donald Tusk will tell EU to back Brexit 'flextension' for UK (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/05/donald-tusk-will-tell-eu-to-back-brexit-flextension-for-uk)

The psychological blow that such a development would cause to the leave camp cannot be underestimated IMO....

Things will probably move to an eventual soft Brexit agreement and a confirmatory referendum, which might lead to no Brexit at all...

Looking back, May had definitely no soft Brexit in mind - her aim was to keep the UK outside of the customs union as well as the internal market. From her days as Home Secretary she had been obsessed with immigration and leaving the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice of the EU. Which she confused with the European Court of Human Rights,  but that's a different story.. 

May is said to avoid a no deal situation/ hard Brexit at all cost, to prevent a break up of the UK. I guess at least she got one thing right... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on April 05, 2019, 10:30:25 AM
Commemorative Brexit coin:
(//)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on April 05, 2019, 11:31:20 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on April 04, 2019, 06:50:09 AM
I like these flow diagrams that the BBC produces

This one sums it up pretty well:

(https://i.imgur.com/5Cg7viF.jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on April 05, 2019, 11:36:23 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on April 05, 2019, 10:30:25 AM
Commemorative Brexit coin:


Very apt. As is this:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dqqlbf8XQAE6GBg.jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on April 05, 2019, 12:23:51 PM
Psychologically I spend a lot of time watching this from behind the sofa at the moment. Trying to predict anything seems like trying to get a hold in quicksand. My initial warm feelings towards Jeremy Corbyn have also taken a temperature dip for now, he seems to have behaved somewhat shadily and ineffectively, but perhaps no-one can come out looking much good in the implacable gloom of Brexit. My personal Brexit weathervane vacillates between hope and losing hope, spending more time in the latter, but awaiting signs of something more definite.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on April 05, 2019, 12:51:31 PM
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on April 05, 2019, 11:36:23 AM
Very apt. As is this:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dqqlbf8XQAE6GBg.jpg)
Excellent. Some more commemorative designs:

(//)
(//)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 05, 2019, 01:35:51 PM
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/41b94dece535a736df8e51e083316301752da66d/0_229_4948_2970/master/4948.jpg?width=780&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=e390d2bc45792a7921d6e8af3063edcd)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on April 05, 2019, 02:59:05 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dqqx2iYWsAI3t4u.jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 05, 2019, 11:47:50 PM
The perspective from Australia:

"It is a bit like watching a loved grandparent in physical and mental decline.
You care for them deeply. You appreciate all they have done for you.
But each day they become more inwardly focused. Their world contracts.
They seem increasingly incoherent."


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-10/brexit-and-australias-relationship-with-britain/10879914

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on April 06, 2019, 02:08:12 AM
Quote from: Que on April 05, 2019, 11:47:50 PM
The perspective from Australia:

"It is a bit like watching a loved grandparent in physical and mental decline.
You care for them deeply. You appreciate all they have done for you.
But each day they become more inwardly focused. Their world contracts.
They seem increasingly incoherent."


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-10/brexit-and-australias-relationship-with-britain/10879914

Q
Seems about right to me.

Interesting NY Times article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/02/opinion/brexit-news.html
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on April 08, 2019, 03:29:51 PM
What's the latest, the UK still in the EU?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 08, 2019, 10:14:29 PM
Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on April 08, 2019, 03:29:51 PM
What's the latest, the UK still in the EU?

Oh yes, next deadline will be Friday... ::)

Now Parliament has adopted an Act to force the government's hand to request a delay in lack of a deal, a no-deal situation seems increasingly unlikely.

May has already put in a request for June 30th, but that is likely to be rejected by the EU-27 tomorrow.
More likely is that they will offer the UK a longer delay of at least a year.

The UK govt has already put things in motion for European elections on May 23rd!  ???
That's going to be intesteresting...

Honestly, I don't think Brexit is ever going to happen. Unless May and Corbyn strike a deal to drag the UK out, and force that decision through without a confirmatory referendum.

So, further delays ahead, and a continuation of the total meltdown of British politics in the meantime.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on April 09, 2019, 06:15:31 AM
Quote from: Que on April 08, 2019, 10:14:29 PM
Oh yes, next deadline will be Friday... ::)

Brexit fatigue...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 09, 2019, 09:41:57 AM
Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on April 09, 2019, 06:15:31 AM
Brexit fatigue...

On both sides of the Channel...  ::)
Though the rest of the EU can still hope for an orderly Brexit some day in the near future, for the British the rift in society and politics caused by Brexit could last for many years to come.

Next time any referendum should come with two disclaimers:
1. Be careful what you wish for...
2. If one of these options sounds too good to be true, it, in all likelihood, is not...


Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 09, 2019, 10:12:06 PM
Election time!  :)

Labour and Tories reluctantly prepare for European elections (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/09/labour-and-tories-reluctantly-prepare-for-european-elections)

Elections for the Evil Empire.... the ultimate humilation for hardline Brexiteers...  :o

Will Brits turn up to vote?
And how will Labour and the Tories do? Considering their reluctancy, they probably expect not to do well...  ::)
Will the results have ramifications on a national level?

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on April 10, 2019, 10:36:40 PM
Quote from: Que on April 08, 2019, 10:14:29 PM
.



Honestly, I don't think Brexit is ever going to happen.

Q

That would be extraordinary!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on April 11, 2019, 04:12:17 AM
This really amused me a while back. My wife is also a sign-language interpreter.
May only be viewable in UK:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-46241508/viral-fame-for-brexit-sign-language-interpreter
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: DaveF on April 11, 2019, 05:30:50 AM
Quote from: Que on April 09, 2019, 10:12:06 PM
Election time!  :)

Will Brits turn up to vote?

We sure will - in great numbers, both for the Independent Group (Remain) and the Brexit Party.  We'll treat it as the second referendum we probably won't be allowed.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on April 12, 2019, 06:51:51 PM
(Mostly for giggle value, if it has any)
Found out tonight that Jacob Rees Mogg has a Brexit living sister named Annunziata.

Shouldn't she change her name to something more British sounding?  I mean, Annunziata sounds pretty European to me.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on April 12, 2019, 11:51:25 PM
Quote from: JBS on April 12, 2019, 06:51:51 PM
(Mostly for giggle value, if it has any)
Found out tonight that Jacob Rees Mogg has a Brexit living sister named Annunziata.

Shouldn't she change her name to something more British sounding?  I mean, Annunziata sounds pretty European to me.

She's joined the 'Brexit Party'. I won't be joining myself.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 13, 2019, 06:34:30 AM
I'm happy for our UK members: a rupture of economic relations with the rest of Europe hasn't been added to the political chaos.

I'm also happy for the Dutch tax payers, since an estimated €2.3 bln hit through to 2023, accumulating to a €10 bln economic hit by 2030 (1.2 % of GDP) has been avoided... at least for now....  ::)

And this won't be the last delay, since a Brexit without a 2nd, confirmatory referendum, and probably general elections to create a government that can actually work out a defined Brexit plan, seems highly unlikely.

And considering that Brexit will probably be voted down next time round, Brexit is now already dead in the water...  8)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 14, 2019, 01:40:56 AM
Chrunch time for Jeremy Corbyn (finally...)

Brexit: Jeremy Corbyn under pressure to make bold referendum offer in European elections (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-jeremy-corbyn-eu-referednum-european-elections-labour-a8867596.html) (Independent)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on April 14, 2019, 01:24:36 PM
Quote from: Que on April 14, 2019, 01:40:56 AM
Chrunch time for Jeremy Corbyn (finally...)

Brexit: Jeremy Corbyn under pressure to make bold referendum offer in European elections (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-jeremy-corbyn-eu-referednum-european-elections-labour-a8867596.html) (Independent)

Q

I liked the little featurette of film posters reimagined for Brexit to be found at that link....
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 19, 2019, 12:40:40 AM
First we witnessed  Donald Trump's intentions to take full advantage of the UK weaker position in future negotiations on a bilateral trade deal.

Now we see Democrats ruling out any trade deal if the UK does not respect the Good Friday Agreement.

Brexit: Nancy Pelosi steps up pressure on UK over Irish border (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-47979214)

It seems that without  UK guarantees on the preservation of economic ties between NI and the Republic of Ireland aka " the backstop",  trade deals with either the EU or the US are either impossible or highly disadvantageous.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on April 19, 2019, 07:47:54 AM
That's mostly posturing, I think.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 19, 2019, 11:25:57 AM
Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on April 19, 2019, 07:47:54 AM
That's mostly posturing, I think.

Isn't there a strong Irish lobby within the Democrats?

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on April 19, 2019, 11:42:54 AM
Quote from: Que on April 19, 2019, 11:25:57 AM
Isn't there a strong Irish lobby within the Democrats?

Q

There are about 5 times are many Irish the U.S. as there are in Ireland. I think their political leanings are not too different from the general population.

I don't doubt Pelosi supports the open border and preservation of the Good Friday agreements and the emphasis of these positions is at least partially motivated by Irish supporters. But I doubt that in the case of a disorderly Brexit there would be a strong will to punish the UK by denying trade agreements. The purpose of the threat is make Brexit seem less appealing. If and when it happens the U.S. will have to adapt to the world as it is.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on April 19, 2019, 12:11:59 PM
Quote from: Que on April 19, 2019, 11:25:57 AM
Isn't there a strong Irish lobby within the Democrats?

Q

If anything extraneous motivated Pelosi, it is probably the simple fact that the Brexiteers and Trumpkins are, if not outright allies, at least ideologically similar: nativism, hostility to established politicians, opposition to "globalism", the feeling that they are victims of the modern economy, hostility to modern cultural trends, etc.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 27, 2019, 12:49:32 AM
Britain looks set to squander the extension period (http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/04/britain-looks-set-to-squander-extension.html).

I have changed my mind about the likelyhood of a Brexit.....  ::)
If the political paralysis in Westminster continues, which seems now likely, the EU might end this farce end of October by not offering any further extension and let the UK fall of the cliff - unless it revokes the article 50 procedure.
A though choice for the EU, which might be seen as pushing the UK out, but the Brexit impasse is doing continuous economic and political damage to the EU. It might decide to cut its losses...

It seems that up in Scotland they made the same calculation:

Sturgeon wants Scottish independence referendum by 2021 (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48026430)

It seems that Sturgeon has is taking the long road with a more politically inclusive approach:

QuoteThe first minister also predicted: "If we are successful in further growing the support and the demand for independence, then no UK government will be able to stop the will of the people or stop that will being expressed."

She announced she wants cross-party talks with opposition leaders about Holyrood's powers, while a Citizens' Assembly will be set up to examine wider questions on Scotland's future.

If she can convince political forces outside the SNP, independence might stand a chance. Though the final outcome will be heavily dependent on developments in Westminster.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on April 27, 2019, 05:19:09 PM
The EU staunchly supports the central govt in Madrid in its attempt to squelch catalonian independence efforts. I wonder how they'd react to a scottish secession vote?  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 28, 2019, 12:04:19 AM
Quote from: André on April 27, 2019, 05:19:09 PM
The EU staunchly supports the central govt in Madrid in its attempt to squelch catalonian independence efforts. I wonder how they'd react to a scottish secession vote?  ::)

I wouldn't call it staunch support, but the EU certainly does go out of its way in avoiding any action that could offset the Spanish government. This is because its loyalty lies first and foremost with the member states.

Scotland could be different in two respects:
1) if the UK govt  agrees to an independence referendum, independence as an outcome of that referendum would be consensual;
2) when the UK is no longer a member state, it would be an external event.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on April 28, 2019, 08:17:22 AM
Quote from: Que on April 28, 2019, 12:04:19 AM
I wouldn't call it staunch support, but the EU certainly does go out of its way in avoiding any action that could offset the Spanish government. This is because its loyalty lies first and foremost with the member states.

Scotland could be different in two respects:
1) if the UK govt  agrees to an independence referendum, independence as an outcome of that referendum would be consensual;
2) when the UK is no longer a member state, it would be an external event.

Q

I forgot that little detail  >:D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 16, 2019, 10:02:30 PM
The endgame has begun.... (for real, this time...)

Longest Pound Slide Since 2000 Shows Brexit Respite All But Over (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-16/longest-pound-slide-since-2000-shows-brexit-respite-all-but-over) (Bloomberg)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Sef on May 17, 2019, 08:13:53 AM
Quote from: Que on May 16, 2019, 10:02:30 PM
The endgame has begun.... (for real, this time...)

Longest Pound Slide Since 2000 Shows Brexit Respite All But Over (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-16/longest-pound-slide-since-2000-shows-brexit-respite-all-but-over) (Bloomberg)

Q
Just paid for my UK holiday and got 1.26 dollars to the Pound. But did I peak too soon (not that I had a choice)?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on May 17, 2019, 08:30:06 AM
Maybe Donald can send Jared Kushner across the bond to settle Brexit.  ;D

(He's already solved the Palestinian/Israeli conflict and immigration.)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 18, 2019, 06:38:50 AM
This analysis by Chris Grey on his Brexit blog reflects my own personal view that all other turns of events than the unlikely revocation of the article 50 (exit) procedure, are going to be pretty disastrous...

Warning: GMG'ers from the UK might find this quite unsettling reading...

Deal or no deal? There's still no end in sight (http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/deal-or-no-deal-theres-still-no-end-in.html)

I'm afraid that what we are going to see the coming months are European elections results split between remain and leave votes, equally disastrous for Labour and Conservatives, followed by a Tory leadership contest. But no progress on Brexit whatsoever...

I think there is a fair chance of Boris Johnson of taking charge of the Tories in an attempted push-back against Nigel Farage's Brexit Party. Boris will then steer towards a hard Brexit.

Any chance of another extention granted by the EU end of October, is getting more remote by the day anyway...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on May 24, 2019, 09:50:07 AM
So, May has given up. What's next, Boris?  :o
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on May 24, 2019, 10:32:09 AM
Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on May 24, 2019, 09:50:07 AM
So, May has given up. What's next, Boris?  :o

A "Clean Brexit".
(No deal.)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on May 24, 2019, 10:54:52 AM
Quote from: Marc on May 24, 2019, 10:32:09 AM
A "Clean Brexit".
(No deal.)

We saw the dissolution of the Soviet Union and were so smug that their system was not viable. We're next, I'm afraid.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on May 24, 2019, 11:32:21 AM
Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on May 24, 2019, 10:54:52 AM
We saw the dissolution of the Soviet Union and were so smug that their system was not viable. We're next, I'm afraid.

Not sure what the system is, or the "we", but... when I, for instance, look at the (non-official until Sunday evening) outcome of the EU election in the Netherlands (where I live), then I still have moderate hopes that some form of democracy will still prevent 'us' from a complete downfall. Maybe the 'established' political parties will wake up again and realize that you need to have inspired politicians with ideas, instead of only laid-back protectors of the 'status quo' (as we have here with Mark Rutte) or overly ambitious wanna be leaders who just think they need to follow and please the voters and get their name in the history books (Theresa May).

Btw: saw 2 commentators on CNN. Conservative Bill Cash and commentator/journalist Liam Halligan. The first one is still living in ancient times (this great country that rescued the European continent twice in the last 100 years or so), and the latter says that the UK has been doing better since the Brexit referendum. They also both showed a certain amount of disgust towards Germany and France, especially Cash, because they want to rule over 'our Brittania-rule-the-waves'. And they are both convinced that a 'no deal' Brexit won't be such a problem.

This could be the main difficulty: the refusal to come to the insight that the world has changed, that the world has become a small village now, and that navel gazing isolationism and harshly broken economical/political relationships (which were not all that bad), might have very serious implications.

Another thing: I live in a country with an overload of political parties. Two decades ago there were some discussions that we maybe should change our democracy system and strive for a 2 or 3 party parliament. I'm glad we didn't. In the Netherlands, politicians always had to negociate and compromise, and I think that's good. Yes, there is division here, but it's not as massive as for instance in the UK or the USA. People here have learned to live with deals. (Even if it was/is with grinding teeth.) Things go slower maybe, but this also mostly means that bad things can be brought to a halt before it's too late.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on May 24, 2019, 11:35:42 AM
Quote from: Marc on May 24, 2019, 11:32:21 AM
Not sure what the system is, or the "we", but...

By "we" I meant the western democracies, particularly the U.S. Maybe Obama was our Gorbachev, Trump is our Yeltsin. We have to insure the next leader is not our Putin.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on May 24, 2019, 11:47:18 AM
I think you (the US) could (and very probably will) do much worse than with a "Putin" as one of the next leaders. Ask any Russian if  Yeltsin was preferable to Putin.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on May 24, 2019, 11:53:01 AM
Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on May 24, 2019, 11:35:42 AM
By "we" I meant the western democracies, particularly the U.S. Maybe Obama was our Gorbachev, Trump is our Yeltsin. We have to insure the next leader is not our Putin.

Even though the world has changed, we can still learn from history I think.
Nationalism leads to imposed pride, to conflicts and to xenophobia.
Let's hope that sanity prevails.


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: premont on May 24, 2019, 12:09:12 PM
Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on May 24, 2019, 09:50:07 AM
So, May has given up.

Very appropiate, since we are approaching the end of May.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on May 24, 2019, 12:13:37 PM
Quote from: (: premont :) on May 24, 2019, 12:09:12 PM
Very appropiate, since we are approaching the end of May.

LOL
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on May 24, 2019, 12:31:22 PM
If we want to learn from history we first have to recognize that almost all modern societies are founded on the concept of a nation state. Modern democracy, participation, rule of law, social security/welfare etc. are all exceedingly rare without a nation state.

The crazy thing "we" (i.e. European mainstream press and parties) have done is to taint the desire to stick with this political structure that is the basis of modern society as "nationalism" and blame nationalism as the cause of all evils. True, the two huge wars of the first half of the 20th century were based in nationalism. But countless other wars before and after were not. Historically, the main alternative to a nation state (or proto-nation-state like the Italian city states of the middle ages) is an Empire. Historically, it's really odd to hope to transform Europe from nation states into some kind of Empire and THEREFORE hope for more peace with those outside the Empire and more democratic participation for those inside.

I don't want to defend the Brexiteers. But the current strategy of most mainstream parties in (Western) Europe to taint everyone who does not agree with the dogma that the not very democratic bureaucratic Moloch of the current EU institutions is our salvation as populist, nationalist, from last century, enemy of peace etc. is absolutely despicable. The only chance to save some of the EU (not sure how much of it is worth saving) is to admit the problems and work on them. And to admit that many things still have to be done nationally (or maybe even better regionally), mainly because there is far more democratic control. The EU is almost completely in the hand of lobbys and bureaucrats. It's a lobbycratureship.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on May 24, 2019, 01:31:53 PM
Quote from: Jo498 on May 24, 2019, 12:31:22 PM
If we want to learn from history we first have to recognize that almost all modern societies are founded on the concept of a nation state. Modern democracy, participation, rule of law, social security/welfare etc. are all exceedingly rare without a nation state.

The crazy thing "we" (i.e. European mainstream press and parties) have done is to taint the desire to stick with this political structure that is the basis of modern society as "nationalism" and blame nationalism as the cause of all evils. True, the two huge wars of the first half of the 20th century were based in nationalism. But countless other wars before and after were not. Historically, the main alternative to a nation state (or proto-nation-state like the Italian city states of the middle ages) is an Empire. Historically, it's really odd to hope to transform Europe from nation states into some kind of Empire and THEREFORE hope for more peace with those outside the Empire and more democratic participation for those inside.

I don't want to defend the Brexiteers. But the current strategy of most mainstream parties in (Western) Europe to taint everyone who does not agree with the dogma that the not very democratic bureaucratic Moloch of the current EU institutions is our salvation as populist, nationalist, from last century, enemy of peace etc. is absolutely despicable. The only chance to save some of the EU (not sure how much of it is worth saving) is to admit the problems and work on them. And to admit that many things still have to be done nationally (or maybe even better regionally), mainly because there is far more democratic control. The EU is almost completely in the hand of lobbys and bureaucrats. It's a lobbycratureship.

I do understand the sentiments. I voted against a European constitution in 2005. And I don't believe in the European Union as a forced constructed bureaucratic Moloch. But I will always be against blind nationalism, feelings of arrogant superiority et al. So I was not talking about those who want the EU to slow down a bit, and be more transparent and democratic. I'm talking about nationalistic clowns like Farage, Johnson, and, in the Netherlands, Wilders and Baudet, the latter being our country's most beloved joke-intellectual at (for?) the moment and gaining sufficient political ground with his nonsense talk about Nexit and the ideal (white/male/Western European) "boreal world", utter nonsense which he borrowed from Jean-Marie Le Pen.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on May 24, 2019, 01:43:07 PM
Here in the states some draw a distinction between 'patriotism' and 'nationalism.' The first involves loyalty and love for ones country and its ideals, and solidarity with compatriots, without the implication that other countries are superior or subservient. It is a semantic distinction that not every recognizes.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 24, 2019, 11:22:56 PM
Quote from: Jo498 on May 24, 2019, 12:31:22 PM
I don't want to defend the Brexiteers. But the current strategy of most mainstream parties in (Western) Europe to taint everyone who does not agree with the dogma that the not very democratic bureaucratic Moloch of the current EU institutions is our salvation as populist, nationalist, from last century, enemy of peace etc. is absolutely despicable. The only chance to save some of the EU (not sure how much of it is worth saving) is to admit the problems and work on them. And to admit that many things still have to be done nationally (or maybe even better regionally), mainly because there is far more democratic control. The EU is almost completely in the hand of lobbys and bureaucrats. It's a lobbycratureship.

The image of the EU bureaucracy being an not so democratic moloch is just a - very persistent - popular myth...

Just compare the 33.000 EU civil servants to the over 300.000 Beamte of the federal German government...  ;)

The EU is run by a very influential directly elected parliament and the governments of the member states. Any lack of transparency in decision making is mainly due to the deals the member states make behind closed doors. Yet common wisdom resists a federal setup, which would these governments out of the equation.

The complexities of joint decision making between 28 member states requires a rule based - bureaucratic - process
To ensure objectivity and avoid national bias from the more powerfull member states, the preparation of proposals is entrusted to the European Commission.The EC has a strong position, but doesn't make the political decisions.

Do you really think Brussels is more bureaucratic than Paris or Berlin?  ??? Think again...

As to lobby groups - any centre of political power attracts them. They are also active in London, Paris and Berlin, believe me.
Whether they are particularly influential in Brussels, I'm not so sure... Some are, some are not.. It seems that the likes of Google and Microsoft have considerably less clout in Brussels than in Washington. Farmers have an influential lobby, but that replicates the situation in many member states. And then there is industry, and environmental groups... Lobbying is not necessarily a bad thing, sometimes there are important messages to tell politicans and civil servants.

If anything, the most important lobby groups that are active in Brussels are the British and French governments, with the German government outdoing them all in power and influence.There is literally NO decision by the EU, and I mean none whatsoever, that is taken without the backing of the representatives of the German government.

So, any claim that the EU is actually run by Germany is in a way more true than your claim that it is run by bureaucrats and lobby groups.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on May 25, 2019, 04:02:21 AM
Led by donkeys

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/07/billboard-campaigners-brexit-led-by-donkeys
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/25/led-by-donkeys-reveal-identities-brexit-billboards-posters
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 26, 2019, 02:30:54 AM
Theresa May's post mortem by Chris Grey:

Theresa May's demise (http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/theresa-mays-demise_24.html)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 26, 2019, 04:46:26 AM
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/4dab3fe85ea10cd281a9b0e1cb06eeaacf5edcb5/0_0_2560_1536/master/2560.jpg?width=1225&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=f127ad5140ec31aa70149f40bd5a1f4c)

Perhaps someone could explain why there are so many contenders for the leadership of the Tories at this auspicious moment in time?  ???

Because this is what will await the "winner"....

(http://www.howitworksdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/iStock_000002662649Large.jpg)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on May 26, 2019, 08:49:25 AM
Quote from: Que on May 26, 2019, 04:46:26 AM
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/4dab3fe85ea10cd281a9b0e1cb06eeaacf5edcb5/0_0_2560_1536/master/2560.jpg?width=1225&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=f127ad5140ec31aa70149f40bd5a1f4c)

Perhaps someone could explain why there are so many contenders for the leadership of the Tories at this auspicious moment in time?  ???

Because this is what will await the "winner"....

(http://www.howitworksdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/iStock_000002662649Large.jpg)

Q

I am not enough immersed in UK politics to recognise those people other than The Boris, but there are only three of them, going by their poses, whom I would trust to do anything more than takes tickets at a movie theater....the lady on the top left looks like she would be good at enforcing the rules in a convent, the gentleman on the far top right would make a good hit man, and the lady to the immediate left of him might make a good city councillor.

God save the Queen (and her kingdom) because the politicians seem totally incapable of doing it.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: NikF4 on May 26, 2019, 02:27:12 PM
Quote from: JBS on May 26, 2019, 08:49:25 AM
I am not enough immersed in UK politics to recognise those people other than The Boris, but there are only three of them, going by their poses, whom I would trust to do anything more than takes tickets at a movie theater....the lady on the top left looks like she would be good at enforcing the rules in a convent, the gentleman on the far top right would make a good hit man, and the lady to the immediate left of him might make a good city councillor.

God save the Queen (and her kingdom) because the politicians seem totally incapable of doing it.

The woman second from the right is Esther McVey. Twenty years ago her gig was as a TV presenter on a UK breakfast show. Her husband partner is another Tory MP, a charmer named Philip Davies who I imagine has a party piece of Groucho singing 'Whatever it is I'm against it'.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on May 26, 2019, 08:10:03 PM
So, the conservatives got 9% of the EU parliament vote.  ???
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 26, 2019, 09:21:11 PM
Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on May 26, 2019, 08:10:03 PM
So, the conservatives got 9% of the EU parliament vote.  ???

The Tories will want those votes they lost to the Brexit Party back, so I expect them to pick a hard Brexiteer as their new leader.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: pjme on May 27, 2019, 04:55:43 AM
Quote from: Que on May 26, 2019, 09:21:11 PM
.... a hard Brexiteer as their new leader.

https://www.youtube.com/v/qvOMITm6wzo

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 30, 2019, 10:47:16 PM
A new prime minister intent on no deal Brexit can't be stopped by MPs (https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/new-prime-minister-intent-no-deal-brexit-cant-be-stopped-mps-0) (Institute for Government)

"It looks like a near impossible task for MPs to stop a prime minister who is determined to leave the EU without a deal. Parliamentary procedure offers no route, and the only apparent way to blocking no deal – a vote of no confidence – would be a massive gamble for Tory MPs.

But a prime minister who wants to leave the EU without a deal would face considerable pressure, both within Parliament and beyond, to change path, and he or she would have to explain how they would govern in the weeks and months after a no deal exit."


Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 31, 2019, 01:23:25 AM
Same facts, different conclusion:

MPs can stop no deal. Bercow is right
  (InFacts) (https://infacts.org/mps-can-stop-no-deal-bercow-is-right/)

My personal view is that Parliament would have to bring down the government to stop Brexit, but might be too divided to do so....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 08, 2019, 07:59:59 AM
Tories contemplating suspending parliament to force through a hard Brexit:

Brexit: suspending parliament should not be ruled out, says Dominic Raab (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/08/suspending-parliament-should-not-be-ruled-out-says-dominic-raab)

So much for democracy.....  ::)

And who is the only person who could stop a move like that?  ???

Her Majesty the Queen....of all people...

And I think she would indeed oppose such a move.
Going along with sidelining parliament, would be the end of the monarchy.... and of Britain, for that matter.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 10, 2019, 01:01:44 AM
While British politics is imploding in slow-motion:

The European Banking Authority Leaves London (https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2019/05/31/the-european-banking-authority-leaves-london/#181d0aed1715) (Forbes)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on June 10, 2019, 12:15:54 PM
The other woman is Andrea Leadsome (affectionately known by many as 'Andrea Loathsome'). Last time the Tory Party leadership came up she said that she would be a better PM as she had children unlike Theresa May who would have loved to have children but couldn't. Two days after saying this Andrea Leadsome dropped out of the leadership race as there was such an uproar over her unkind comment. I would actually prefer Boris to her. My favourite is Rory Stewart but he is an outsider. He's the only one who talks sense as far as I'm concerned. He is second from the left on the top row. He was in the army and also walked across Afghanistan which is impressive.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on June 10, 2019, 12:20:33 PM
Quote from: vandermolen on June 10, 2019, 12:15:54 PM
The other woman is Andrea Leadsome (affectionately known by many as 'Andrea Loathsome'). Last time the Tory Party leadership came up she said that she would be a better PM as she had children unlike Theresa May who would have loved to have children but couldn't. Two days after saying this Andrea Leadsome dropped out of the leadership race as there was such an uproar over her unkind comment. I would actually prefer Boris to her. My favourite is Rory Stewart but he is an outsider. He's the only one who talks sense as far as I'm concerned. He is second from the left on the top row. He was in the army and also walked across Afghanistan which is impressive.

He couldn't find the keys to his tank?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on June 10, 2019, 12:34:34 PM
Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on June 10, 2019, 12:20:33 PM
He couldn't find the keys to his tank?
I think that was after he left the army  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on June 10, 2019, 12:44:04 PM
Quote from: vandermolen on June 10, 2019, 12:34:34 PM
I think that was after he left the army  ;D

Someone who can walk across Afghanistan and live to tell about it is a resourceful chap. Maybe he can even survive Parliament. :)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on June 10, 2019, 01:49:34 PM
Quote from: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on June 10, 2019, 12:44:04 PM
Someone who can walk across Afghanistan and live to tell about it is a resourceful chap. Maybe he can even survive Parliament. :)
Yes, who knows?
:)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 10, 2019, 10:03:03 PM
Quote from: vandermolen on June 10, 2019, 12:15:54 PM
My favourite is Rory Stewart but he is an outsider. He's the only one who talks sense as far as I'm concerned.

The only realist/honest one of the bunch!
I get the impression that doesn't stand much chance - most people prefer to vote for fairy tales...  ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on June 11, 2019, 01:47:28 AM
Quote from: Que on June 10, 2019, 10:03:03 PM
The only realist/honest one of the bunch!
I get the impression that doesn't stand much chance - most people prefer to vote for fairy tales...  ::)

Q
I agree.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on June 11, 2019, 05:07:48 AM
Quote from: Que on May 26, 2019, 04:46:26 AM
Because this is what will await the "winner"....

(http://www.howitworksdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/iStock_000002662649Large.jpg)
Q
The very French guillotine was, of course, never introduced in the UK; it was done by hanging (so I agree a guillotine would be the most fitting punishment).  :D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: mc ukrneal on June 11, 2019, 05:58:27 AM
Quote from: Christo on June 11, 2019, 05:07:48 AM
The very French guillotine was, of course, never introduced in the UK; it was done by hanging (so I agree a guillotine would be the most fitting punishment).  :D
What about the Halifax Gibbet?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on June 11, 2019, 08:10:02 AM
Quote from: mc ukrneal on June 11, 2019, 05:58:27 AM
What about the Halifax Gibbet?
A good one - my blunt statement was of course crying for falsification, but still: this early modern construction "seems to have been unique in England" and predated the guillotine by a few centuries: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halifax_Gibbet.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ghost of Baron Scarpia on June 11, 2019, 08:15:35 AM
Quote from: Christo on June 11, 2019, 05:07:48 AM
The very French guillotine was, of course, never introduced in the UK; it was done by hanging (so I agree a guillotine would be the most fitting punishment).  :D

Fitting would be the little hill besides the Tower of London where enemies of the state were traditionally hanged, no?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 15, 2019, 12:58:05 AM
A sharp observation on the national cult of humiliation and indignation surrounding Brexit:


"National humiliation, it seems, depends on which nation or group of nations is inflicting the offence. Mere equality with France and Germany and Spain is intolerably demeaning. Subservience to a loutish US president is not [...]

Britain is humiliated by the EU because it expects to be superior. It is not humiliated by Trump because, for all the illusion of a special relationship, it accepts that it is a junior partner."



Brexit Britain is wallowing in dangerous talk of national humiliation (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/14/brexit-britain-national-humiliation-uk-eu)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on June 20, 2019, 12:04:50 AM
I totally agree with the Dutch PM's view on the likely consequence of Brexit.
Like Turkeys voting for Christmas IMO.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1141613477154496513?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 25, 2019, 10:16:13 PM
People who - once upon a time - had their hopes vested in Jeremy Corbyn, must be terribly dissapointed by now.....

Jeremy Corbyn delays decision on throwing weight behind remain (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/25/labour-holds-back-on-second-referendum-amid-shadow-cabinet-rift)

I'm sticking to my old theory that he will be happy to pick up the pieces after the Tories have conveniently executed Brexit and take the blame for its failure

The danger of his little scheme is however that it might not be just the Tory government that falls to pieces, but the British political system and constitutional order as a whole. But I guess Socialist Utopias are built on the ruins of the old?  ???

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on June 26, 2019, 12:08:05 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on June 20, 2019, 12:04:50 AM
I totally agree with the Dutch PM's view on the likely consequence of Brexit.
Like Turkeys voting for Christmas IMO.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1141613477154496513?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

But should he have said that? I do rather agree with the reply from R Mel whoever he or she is. I voted remain but if a second referendum was called I'm not sure I would a second time.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 26, 2019, 10:28:37 AM
Quote from: Irons on June 26, 2019, 12:08:05 AM
But should he have said that? I do rather agree with the reply from R Mel whoever he or she is. I voted remain but if a second referendum was called I'm not sure I would a second time.

Because..... "foreign powers are interfering in British politics"?  ::)

If the British ever had any close political friends on "the continent", it is the Dutch...

If there is any foreign power currently interfering in British politics, it is the US...

That said, I don't think the current state of UK politics has anything to do with outside interference.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 18, 2019, 09:49:01 PM
The latest development is that the UK parliament, led by the House of Lords, has made provisions to prevent any "prorogation" or suspension of parliament by the government in order to leave the EU without any agreement (hard/ "no-deal Brexit).

This means that Boris Johnson will get stuck in the same impasse as May: no majority to reverse the referendum result or a 2nd referendum, no majority for the negotiated exit agreement with the EU, but no majority to leave without a deal either....

MPs pass amendment seeking to thwart no-deal Brexit prorogation (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/18/mps-pass-amendment-seeking-to-thwart-no-deal-prorogation)

However, Johnson might not need prorogation of parliament: the passing of the deadline will in itself achieve a hard Brexit.... unless yet another extension is requested and granted....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on July 19, 2019, 03:55:35 AM
Quote from: Que on July 18, 2019, 09:49:01 PM
The latest development is that the UK parliament, led by the House of Lords, has made provisions to prevent any "prorogation" or suspension of parliament by the government in order to leave the EU without any agreement (hard/ "no-deal Brexit).

This means that Boris Johnson will get stuck in the same impasse as May: no majority to reverse the referendum result or a 2nd referendum, no majority for the negotiated exit agreement with the EU, but no majority to leave without a deal either....

MPs pass amendment seeking to thwart no-deal Brexit prorogation (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/18/mps-pass-amendment-seeking-to-thwart-no-deal-prorogation)

However, Johnson might not need prorogation of parliament: the pass of the deadline will in itself achieve a hard Brexit.... unless yet another extension is requested and granted....

Q
Yes but I think it's good that the the prorogation of Parliament has been made much more difficult. The goal-centred obsession with achieving Brexit regardless of the increasingly obvious negative consequences is deeply dispiriting. Like turkeys voting for Christmas in my opinion.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on July 19, 2019, 11:23:38 AM
It seems such a curious thing, that there exists a process (prorogation) whereby the government can just shut down parliament if it doesn't like the answers it's getting, even if it was not intended for that purpose (I'd have thought Maggie would have whipped it out every 5 mins!...).

Quote from: Que on July 18, 2019, 09:49:01 PM
However, Johnson might not need prorogation of parliament: the passing of the deadline will in itself achieve a hard Brexit.... unless yet another extension is requested and granted....

.... really, we seem to be living in a kind of evil forest where everything seems weighted in favour of the wicked wizard!  :(  Speaking of whom, surely if one really wanted to save £350 million a week, wouldn't the best way be to tape the odiously insincere Boris Johnson to the side of a bus, to prevent him from governing ..
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 19, 2019, 12:23:53 PM
Who is going to ask the EU for yet another delay on behalf of the UK, if the new prime minister refuses to do so or will purposely spoil it?

Some Conservatives have figured out that the only other possible candidate would be...... HM the Queen....  ::)

Brexit: Scheme to block no deal 'could involve Queen' (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49040128?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/uk_leaves_the_eu&link_location=live-reporting-correspondent)

It seems that this whole episode will have "constitutional crisis" written  all over it...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on July 19, 2019, 01:16:07 PM
Quote from: Que on July 19, 2019, 12:23:53 PM
Who is going to ask the EU for yet another delay on behalf of the UK, if the new prime minister refuses to do so or will purposely spoil it?

Some Conservatives have figured out that the only other possible candidate would be...... HM the Queen....  ::)

Brexit: Scheme to block no deal 'could involve Queen' (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49040128?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/uk_leaves_the_eu&link_location=live-reporting-correspondent)

It seems that this whole episode will have "constitutional crisis" written  all over it...

Q

Theoretically that would destroy the monarchy, since the basic constitutional rule now is that the monarch does nothing independent of the ministers. OTOH the crowd most likely to complain in such a case are hardline Tories whose whole universe is based on the idea of monarchy.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 20, 2019, 01:07:27 AM
Quote from: JBS on July 19, 2019, 01:16:07 PM
Theoretically that would destroy the monarchy, since the basic constitutional rule now is that the monarch does nothing independent of the ministers.

Agreed!  :)

Her Majesty would be used by these moderate Conservatives as an alternative for dismissing the government, which they seem to want to avoid at all costs. For obvious reasons....Though by now any fears of a subsequent neo-Stalinist govt under Jeremy Corbyn seem extremely farfetched....

But I would advise HM not to go along with any prorogation of Parliament either. Such an step would be undemocratic and is likely to be unconstitutional. Conveniently, both anti-Brexit activist Gina Millet and some Conservative MPs have announced to fight such an action before the Supreme Court. This would be a perfect excuse for the monarch to keep any request for prorogation "under advisement".  8)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on July 21, 2019, 10:40:57 PM
I must say, that is a splendid picture of The Queen

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/38ED/production/_107937541_hi042781504.jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on July 21, 2019, 11:57:40 PM
Quote from: Mandryka on July 21, 2019, 10:40:57 PM
I must say, that is a splendid picture of The Queen

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/38ED/production/_107937541_hi042781504.jpg)
Yes it is. I also like this recent one. When offered help in planting the tree the Queen refused saying 'I'm still perfectly capable of planting a tree!' I'll leave any others for my 'Nice photos of Her Majesty' thread.  8)


(//)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: North Star on July 22, 2019, 12:55:16 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on July 21, 2019, 10:40:57 PM
I must say, that is a splendid picture of The Queen

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/38ED/production/_107937541_hi042781504.jpg)
Love the colour scheme.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on July 22, 2019, 01:54:35 AM
Quote from: North Star on July 22, 2019, 12:55:16 AM
Love the colour scheme.
Clearly she likes complimentary colours as in the red (0k pink)/green of the other photo.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: North Star on July 22, 2019, 03:21:13 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on July 22, 2019, 01:54:35 AM
Clearly she likes complimentary colours as in the red (0k pink)/green of the other photo.
Yeah, and also maybe what the colours might suggest.

(https://amp.businessinsider.com/images/594a6ad0e92b9417a16740c9-750-375.jpg)  (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b7/Flag_of_Europe.svg/255px-Flag_of_Europe.svg.png)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on July 22, 2019, 04:24:17 AM
Quote from: North Star on July 22, 2019, 03:21:13 AM
Yeah, and also maybe what the colours might suggest.

(https://amp.businessinsider.com/images/594a6ad0e92b9417a16740c9-750-375.jpg)  (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b7/Flag_of_Europe.svg/255px-Flag_of_Europe.svg.png)
Excellent! Well spotted.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on July 22, 2019, 08:37:48 AM
The Queen's milliner (and I imagine the Daily Mail's photographers) must dreaming of something like this to happen (watch the birdie on the left):

(https://www.bravotv.com/sites/bravo/files/styles/blog-post-embedded--computer/public/field_blog_image/2017/08/unleashed-spencer-pratt-hummingbird-hat.jpg?itok=EGuIk829)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: mc ukrneal on July 23, 2019, 03:16:24 AM
Next up, Boris!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on July 23, 2019, 03:59:27 AM
We've got our very own President Trump! Soon everyone will have one.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 31, 2019, 10:57:37 AM
We'll block trade deal if Brexit imperils open Irish border, say US politicians (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/31/brexit-mess-with-good-friday-and-well-block-uk-trade-deal-us-politicians-warn)

OOPS.....  ::)

So.... no NI backstop = no deal with EU = no deal with US?

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on July 31, 2019, 12:58:16 PM
I read today's The Guardian but missed that article. Thanks for bringing it to attention. Trade deals are extremely complicated to start with, and the ☘️ contingent in Congress is a powerful force. A deal with no backstop would be DOA in Congress.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on July 31, 2019, 01:06:17 PM
So the only option left is a United Ireland inside the EU? The Empire dwindles, day by day. As for United.........
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on July 31, 2019, 11:41:51 PM
Quote from: The new erato on July 31, 2019, 01:06:17 PM
So the only option left is a United Ireland inside the EU? The Empire dwindles, day by day. As for United.........

Will not happen. Would result in a civil war. In the case of Scotland there is a possibility.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 01, 2019, 12:04:43 AM
In my mind I keep coming back to the Mount Everest 1996 disaster analogy, where the obsession with reaching the summit regardless of timing and weather considerations, lead to catastrophe. For Johnson and those who agree with him, the obsession with 'Brexit 'do or die' on 31st October has become an obsessive end in itself regardless of the increasingly obvious disastrous consequences for the UK. Read the chapter 'Goal Crazy' in Oliver Burkeman's excellent book 'The Antidote' for an analysis of this particular mindset which, in my experience,  is common in education too (all that matters is results - doesn't matter how they are achieved). By ignoring the process and focusing on the goal the government is, in my view, just digging a bigger and bigger hole to jump into and yes, the break up of the UK is a real possibility - although I don't like the idea I can totally understand why Scotland and N. Ireland do not want to be forced out of the EU, when their populations voted largely for Remain.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on August 01, 2019, 01:00:48 AM
Quote from: Irons on July 31, 2019, 11:41:51 PM
Will not happen. Would result in a civil war.

So, the fear of civil war is allegedly a deterrent for Irish nationalists, who will not make any move in case of a hard Brexit. Then why shouldn't it give Johnson pause to think again if he really wants a hard Brexit which coukld very well issue in a civil war?

And anyway, a civil war has been going on for years in Northern Ireland, so it would be hardly a surprising news or situation.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on August 01, 2019, 07:14:45 AM
Quote from: Florestan on August 01, 2019, 01:00:48 AM
So, the fear of civil war is allegedly a deterrent for Irish nationalists, who will not make any move in case of a hard Brexit. Then why shouldn't it give Johnson pause to think again if he really wants a hard Brexit which coukld very well issue in a civil war?

And anyway, a civil war has been going on for years in Northern Ireland, so it would be hardly a surprising news or situation.

It takes two sides to make a war. The DUP are supporting the Tories in Parliament with their wafer-thin majority. No British government would sanction a United Ireland unless the people of Northern Ireland wanted it and the chance of that is zero.

Does Johnson want a hard Brexit? I think not but he has to appear to want it. It has been announced today that the Government are spending billions to prepare for a hard Brexit. Money well spent if it nudges Brussels to show some willingness to negotiate. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: North Star on August 01, 2019, 07:57:47 AM
Quote from: Irons on August 01, 2019, 07:14:45 AMIt has been announced today that the Government are spending billions to prepare for a hard Brexit. Money well spent if it nudges Brussels to show some willingness to negotiate.
That's a big 'if'.  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 01, 2019, 09:05:34 AM
Quote from: Irons on July 31, 2019, 11:41:51 PM
Will not happen. Would result in a civil war. In the case of Scotland there is a possibility.

What's put on the table by the EU is the plan to keep NI in the customs union with the EU and in partial regulatory alignment with the single market on key economic sectors. This would retain the status quo between the two parts of the island as much as possible. This would also keep a referendum on reunification ("border poll") at bay, and hopefully preserve the peace.
Sounds a lot better than Boris' Brexiteers have come up with.... ::)

Note that the DUP is not in favour of a hard Brexit.
But they want to have their cake and eat it  ;) and oppose a customs border in the Irish Sea as well.
Unfortunately, if the UK wants to sever its ties with the EU - and by consequence Ireland - something has to give...

Quote from: Irons on August 01, 2019, 07:14:45 AM
Does Johnson want a hard Brexit? I think not but he has to appear to want it. It has been announced today that the Government are spending billions to prepare for a hard Brexit. Money well spent if it nudges Brussels to show some willingness to negotiate. 

Boris thinks the EU is going to blink first. But it won't...
Why? Because after Brexit the UK loses all its leverage, while the EU will still be holding the same cards it holds now.
The conditions for a future trade deal will be the same as they are for the withdrawal agreement: 1)   a guarantee for retaining the status quo between NI and the Irish Republic ("backstop), 2) protection of the rights of EU citizens, 3) financial settlement.

BTW If the the US Congress will also support the backstop as a condition for a future trade deal, the EU refusal to scrap it will become a non-issue. Without a trade deal with either the US or the EU, the UK will commit economic suicide...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on August 01, 2019, 10:18:08 AM
Quote from: Irons on August 01, 2019, 07:14:45 AM
It takes two sides to make a war. The DUP are supporting the Tories in Parliament with their wafer-thin majority. No British government would sanction a United Ireland unless the people of Northern Ireland wanted it and the chance of that is zero.

What the people of NI clearly wanted was to remain in the EU. Looks like the British government takes their wishes into account only when they align with its own.

Quote
Does Johnson want a hard Brexit? I think not but he has to appear to want it. It has been announced today that the Government are spending billions to prepare for a hard Brexit. Money well spent if it nudges Brussels to show some willingness to negotiate.

Once again, you make it sound as if it's EU's fault for the current lack of agreement. That's not fair.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on August 02, 2019, 12:09:57 AM
Quote from: Florestan on August 01, 2019, 10:18:08 AM
What the people of NI clearly wanted was to remain in the EU. Looks like the British government takes their wishes into account only when they align with its own.

Once again, you make it sound as if it's EU's fault for the current lack of agreement. That's not fair.

Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom which voted to leave. Where do you stop? Surrey voted remain and Kent voted leave. So Surrey stays in?

I think I am fair. A hard Brexit is a disaster waiting to happen and not just for the UK. I read today that no deal Brexit will result in recession for Germany resulting in the loss of thousands of jobs. The EU are intransigent in their approach to negotiations. As I have already said I fully understand their hard-line approach there is very good reasons for it. I just get the feeling, partly due to May being a soft touch, that they began to enjoy it. Thatcher would have bashed them around the head with her handbag and all would be sorted.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 02, 2019, 11:49:21 AM
Quote from: Irons on August 02, 2019, 12:09:57 AM
Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom which voted to leave. Where do you stop? Surrey voted remain and Kent voted leave. So Surrey stays in?

So... The UK is a Union of what? Surrey and Kent?  ::)
I hope you recognise that Northern Ireland does not only have a distinct identity but is also in a very different circumstances from the rest of the UK, and it has a seperate legal position.

QuoteI think I am fair. A hard Brexit is a disaster waiting to happen and not just for the UK. I read today that no deal Brexit will result in recession for Germany resulting in the loss of thousands of jobs. The EU are intransigent in their approach to negotiations. As I have already said I fully understand their hard-line approach there is very good reasons for it. I just get the feeling, partly due to May being a soft touch, that they began to enjoy it. Thatcher would have bashed them around the head with her handbag and all would be sorted.

I refer you to my comments above.
It is is a mistake to confuse the leverage on the international stage that the UK had as a major member state of the EU, with the superpower status the British Empire once enjoyed. Outside of the EU, the UK is a medium sized economically non-aligned Western country. A large Switzerland with nuclear weapons, so to speak...but without the trade deal with the EU.

Thatcher wouldn't have left the EU....
She used the UK's position within the EU to the UK's advantage. She would have played her cards well instead of throwing them away.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Herman on August 02, 2019, 11:32:19 PM
Quote from: Irons on August 02, 2019, 12:09:57 AM
I just get the feeling, partly due to May being a soft touch, that they began to enjoy it. Thatcher would have bashed them around the head with her handbag and all would be sorted.

That feeling doesn't make much sense. The difference with Thatcher would have been that the Iron Lady would have gotten the Tory Party in line. Now that is out of the question. The Tory Party is a bungling clown car full of idiots. Just look at the Rees-Mogg's list of do's and don'ts. These are hundred percent unserious people who don't give a f*ck about their country's prosperity and peace. They have fat foreign bank accounts.

The EU leadership has spent a good part of the last three years negotiating with the UK Brexiteers and it's impossible. During the opening ceremony Farage makes a show of disrespect for the EU Parliament but he's been raking in MEP fees for twenty years. Bak in Westminster MPs have been unable to make up their mind about Brexit either.

It's very unfortunate that Labour does not have a good leader either, which makes for more disaster. It looks like the EU has given up on Britain. The UK has had a disproportionate say in EU affairs for decades and, partly due to Rupert Murdoch's agitation via the media, they are still unhappy. So maybe they should leave and wreck the UK, because chances are Scotland will up and leave too. And then Trump can turn England into a golf course.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 03, 2019, 01:04:00 AM
Quote from: Que on August 02, 2019, 11:49:21 AM
So... The UK is a Union of what? Surrey and Kent?  ::)
I hope you recognise that Northern Ireland does not only have a distinct identity but is also in a very different circumstances from the rest of the UK, and it has a seperate legal position.

I refer you to my comments above.
It is is a mistake to confuse the leverage on the international stage that the UK had as a major member state of the EU, with the superpower status the British Empire once enjoyed. Outside of the EU, the UK is a medium sized economically non-aligned Western country. A large Switzerland with nuclear weapons, so to speak...but without the trade deal with the EU.

Thatcher wouldn't have left the EU....
She used the UK's position within the EU to the UK's advantage. She would have played her cards well instead of throwing them away.

Q
Thatcher would never have held a referendum either. She was totally opposed to them as was Clement Attlee, the great Labour leader after the Second World War. They both, from opposite sides of the political spectrum, thought them incompatible with British constitutional practice.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Herman on August 03, 2019, 03:52:14 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on August 03, 2019, 01:04:00 AM
Thatcher would never have held a referendum either.

Right, that for starters.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on August 03, 2019, 06:20:56 AM
Quote from: Herman on August 02, 2019, 11:32:19 PM

During the opening ceremony Farage makes a show of disrespect for the EU Parliament but he's been raking in MEP fees for twenty years.



Yes, a disgrace. The pro-European British MEPs were clad in yellow T shirts with B------- to Brexit printed on the back. I despair.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 03, 2019, 12:48:20 PM
Quote from: Irons on August 03, 2019, 06:20:56 AM
Yes, a disgrace. The pro-European British MEPs were clad in yellow T shirts with B------- to Brexit printed on the back. I despair.
Yes, what an idiot.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on August 04, 2019, 11:15:12 AM
Quote from: Que on August 02, 2019, 11:49:21 AM
So... The UK is a Union of what? Surrey and Kent?  ::)
I hope you recognise that Northern Ireland does not only have a distinct identity but is also in a very different circumstances from the rest of the UK, and it has a seperate legal position.

This.

QuoteIt is is a mistake to confuse the leverage on the international stage that the UK had as a major member state of the EU, with the superpower status the British Empire once enjoyed. Outside of the EU, the UK is a medium sized economically non-aligned Western country. A large Switzerland with nuclear weapons, so to speak...but without the trade deal with the EU.

This.

QuoteThatcher wouldn't have left the EU....
She used the UK's position within the EU to the UK's advantage. She would have played her cards well instead of throwing them away.

This.

Quote from: vandermolen on August 03, 2019, 01:04:00 AM
Thatcher would never have held a referendum either. She was totally opposed to them as was Clement Attlee, the great Labour leader after the Second World War. They both, from opposite sides of the political spectrum, thought them incompatible with British constitutional practice.

And this as well.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 04, 2019, 10:33:01 PM
So, the latest development is a discussion on whether Boris Johnson can now just  run down the clock till Brexit - as reportedly stated by Dominic Cummings - or that  a Parliamentary majority still has means to prevent that:

Brexit: Still time to block no-deal on 31 October, Dominic Grieve says (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49225906)  (BBC)

Even if Johnson gets a vote of no confidence right after Parliament is back in session, there is almost no time left for elections before the Brexit deadline of the 31th of October. Johnson will want to have them after, so he can take back all the votes from Farage and his Brexit Party. He needs those votes for a parliamentary majority. But... formally HM the Queen has to decide on the date of the elections.

Others claim there are still options... though they look complicated and risky to me...
Replace Johnson by a government of national unity... Can't see that happening, and Johnson needs to step down as PM immediately... which he seems not bound to do constitutionally.

The only other option I can see is Parliament forcing Johnson's hand by force of law.
How?  ::) Complicated and risky.... Like I said before: this has "constitutional crisis" written all over it....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 04, 2019, 11:00:10 PM
The UK could theoretically rejoin the EU at some future date.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 05, 2019, 11:49:27 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on August 04, 2019, 11:00:10 PM
The UK could theoretically rejoin the EU at some future date.

It's more than theorical, but it might take a while...  :)


Anyway, I found a Cambridge Law professor to shed some light on the issue:

David Howarth explains what procedures could be used [...], if politicians are determined to stop no deal. (http://www.democraticaudit.com/2019/08/05/is-it-too-late-to-stop-a-no-deal-brexit/)

Still sounds terribly complicated and risky...
Parliament woukd have to be very determined and united...
And the current bunch are neither...  ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 06, 2019, 12:30:22 AM
Quote from: Que on August 05, 2019, 11:49:27 AM
It's more than theorical, but it might take a while...  :)


Anyway, I found a Cambridge Law professor to shed some light on the issue:

David Howarth explains what procedures could be used [...], if politicians are determined to stop no deal. (http://www.democraticaudit.com/2019/08/05/is-it-too-late-to-stop-a-no-deal-brexit/)

Still sounds terribly complicated and risky...
Parliament woukd have to be very determined and united...
And the current bunch are neither...  ::)

Q
Sadly true!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on August 07, 2019, 03:49:49 AM
Luckilly for clown Boris and a probable 'no deal Brexit': he still has got clown Donald Trump, who promises the UK 'big deals'.
All those big deals, of course, very big and good for the 'America First' politics.

How nice and honourable. The UK can become the USA's clown... for decades to come?

If so... well, that certainly would make those Brexiteering Britons proud.

Clowns.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on August 07, 2019, 03:56:06 AM
Quote from: Marc on August 07, 2019, 03:49:49 AM
Luckilly for clown Boris and a probable 'no deal Brexit': he still has got clown Donald Trump, who promises the UK 'big deals'.
All those big deals, of course, very big and good for the 'America First' politics.

How nice and honourable. The UK can become the USA's clown... for decades to come?


Wouldn't that be the final revenge the former colonies would take on the former metropole?  ;D

And if so, would it be too far-fetched to predict a London Tea Party some time in the future?  :laugh:
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on August 07, 2019, 04:08:08 AM
Quote from: Florestan on August 07, 2019, 03:56:06 AM
Wouldn't that be the final revenge the former colonies would take on the former metropole?  ;D

And if so, would it be too far-fetched to predict a London Tea Party some time in the future?  :laugh:

I always thought London had been a Tea Party for ages already. (Raises his pink and sips his Earl Grey.)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 09, 2019, 10:24:59 AM
A blog post by a moderate leaver - the kind that would have preferred to stay in the European Economic Area (EEA).

On his blog he has frequently pointed out that the average Brexiteer has no clue whatsoever what (s)he is talking about.

At this moment he thinks no deal id better than no Brexit at all:

Why it now has to be no deal (http://peterjnorth.blogspot.com/2019/08/why-it-now-has-to-be-no-deal.html)

But... he also points out that remainers share responsibity for the current situation by rejecting May's negotiated deal.

I think he has a point there...  Why did Labour vote against the negotiated deal again?  ::)

Q


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 09, 2019, 10:41:11 AM
Read the fine print!  8)

(https://bathforeurope.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/boris-brexit-banknote.png)

(https://bathforeurope.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/reesmugg-brexit-banknote.png)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 10, 2019, 12:08:23 AM
Quote from: Que on August 09, 2019, 10:41:11 AM
Read the fine print!  8)

(https://bathforeurope.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/boris-brexit-banknote.png)

(https://bathforeurope.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/reesmugg-brexit-banknote.png)

Q

Funny and sadly true.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Pat B on August 12, 2019, 05:02:45 PM
Quote from: Que on August 09, 2019, 10:24:59 AM
A blog post by a moderate leaver - the kind that would have preferred to stay in the European Economic Area (EEA).

On his blog he has frequently pointed out that the average Brexiteer has no clue whatsoever what (s)he is talking about.

At this moment he thinks no deal id better than no Brexit at all:

Why it now has to be no deal (http://peterjnorth.blogspot.com/2019/08/why-it-now-has-to-be-no-deal.html)

But... he also points out that remainers share responsibity for the current situation by rejecting May's negotiated deal.

I think he has a point there...  Why did Labour vote against the negotiated deal again?  ::)

I try to limit myself to lurking on the political threads here but cannot resist this one.

In theory, soft Brexit should be less bad than hard Brexit. In practice, May's deal might have given the UK the worst aspects of all options and further reduced their leverage. That's a pretty good reason for any MP to have opposed it.

Taking an occasional swipe at Jacob Rees-Mogg does not make someone a moderate. Genuine moderates don't say things like "Brexit is, to a very large extent, a binary estimation. In or out. We voted out." North's entire post is little more than an exercise in blaming Remainers for the consequences of a policy he supported and they opposed.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 12, 2019, 09:59:03 PM
Quote from: Pat B on August 12, 2019, 05:02:45 PM
In theory, soft Brexit should be less bad than hard Brexit. In practice, May's deal might have given the UK the worst aspects of all options and further reduced their leverage. That's a pretty good reason for any MP to have opposed it.

I'm not so sure. "May's deal" was nothing more than an exit agreement on citizens's right, a financial settlement and the guarantee on future economic alignment of NI with the single market. It did however, on request of the UK and to appease the DUP, "lock" in the rest of the UK with NI in a customs union with the EU. Whether this is a good or a bad thing, depends on what kind of Brexit you prefer. In a soft Brexit scenario the UK could be in a customs union with the EU anyway....
Since Labour was (is) in favour of a customs union with the EU, I see no reason per se to reject the deal as it did. Corbyn voted against to deny the Tories control over the next step -  the negotiations on the future relationship. By doing do, he missed his chance to avoid a hard Brexit (for now).

QuoteTaking an occasional swipe at Jacob Rees-Mogg does not make someone a moderate. Genuine moderates don't say things like "Brexit is, to a very large extent, a binary estimation. In or out. We voted out." North's entire post is little more than an exercise in blaming Remainers for the consequences of a policy he supported and they opposed.

True. I dubbed him a "moderate" because, till now, he has been consistently in favour of a "soft" Brexit.
But it seems the whole issue has been polarised and reduced to a binary option between remaining in the EU and a hard Brexit. Looking at the referendum result, a (very) soft Brexit was the most logical option. But the British political system has been unable to deliver such a compromise.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on August 13, 2019, 01:40:18 AM
https://www.reuters.com/article/britain-eu-ing/ing-sees-40-chance-of-an-election-25-chance-of-a-no-deal-brexit-idUSL9N25800B
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Pat B on August 13, 2019, 09:10:01 AM
Quote from: Que on August 12, 2019, 09:59:03 PM
I'm not so sure. "May's deal" was nothing more than an exit agreement on citizens's right, a financial settlement and the guarantee on future economic alignment of NI with the single market. It did hower, on request of the UK and to appease the DUP, "lock" in the rest of the UK with NI in a customs union with the EU. Whether this is a good or a bad thing, depends on what kind of Brexit you prefer. In a soft Brexit scenario the UK could be in a customs union with the EU anyway....
Since Labour was (is) in favour of a customs union with the EU, I see no reason per se to reject the deal as it did. Corbyn voted against to deny the Tories control over the next step -  the negotiations on the future relationship. By doing do, he missed his chance to avoid a hard Brexit (for now).

The Withdrawal Agreement kept the UK in a customs union only during the transition period. After that it would be whatever the government negotiated. Since the Tories overwhelmingly opposed three different customs union proposals (Labour's, Ken Clarke's, and Norway+), it would have been risky for Labour to assume that any Conservative government would even attempt such an arrangement for the long term.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 13, 2019, 10:25:28 AM
Quote from: Pat B on August 13, 2019, 09:10:01 AM
The Withdrawal Agreement kept the UK in a customs union only during the transition period. After that it would be whatever the government negotiated. Since the Tories overwhelmingly opposed three different customs union proposals (Labour's, Ken Clarke's, and Norway+), it would have been risky for Labour to assume that any Conservative government would even attempt such an arrangement for the long term.

Good point.  :)
I somehow remembered the customs union linked to the (permanent) backstop, but you are quite right:: it was to be a temporary arrangement.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 13, 2019, 10:27:30 AM
Quote from: Marc on August 13, 2019, 01:40:18 AM
https://www.reuters.com/article/britain-eu-ing/ing-sees-40-chance-of-an-election-25-chance-of-a-no-deal-brexit-idUSL9N25800B

A 25% chance of a no deal seems a bit low to me...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 20, 2019, 10:39:11 PM
Dutch humour: a Brexit "beach party"....

Dutch Facebook user invites people to watch Brexit unfold from beach (https://www.euronews.com/2019/08/20/dutch-facebook-user-invites-people-to-watch-brexit-unfold-from-beach)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: pjme on August 21, 2019, 01:22:34 AM
Brexit is frightening, but this made me smile:

(https://mk0brilliantmaptxoqs.kinstacdn.com/wp-content/uploads/Brexit-EU-Leaving-Names.png)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 14, 2019, 12:21:42 AM
So, Johnson has a plan B to prevent having to ask for a delay: signing off on the deal May negotiated but with an Northern Ireland-only backstop, as originally proposed by the EU.

Even the DUP seems now to be wavering, realising that if they stand in the way of a deal they will commit electoral suicide because of the dire consequences of a no deal Brexit for NI...

And Johnson has no other option. Breaking his promise the leave the EU would cost him the elections. But so will his alienation of moderate Conservatives... An orderly exit with a deal will create the opportunity to mend his relationship with the Tory rebels. I predict that they will be taken back into the party before the elections. Moderate Tory voters might switch back from the LibDems and Johnson will have his landsslide assured.

At least, this seems to be the plan.....

QuoteBoris Johnson plans to force through Brexit deal in 10-day blitz Brussels talks show signs of progress over contentious Irish backstop (Financial Times)

Boris Johnson is planning to force a new Brexit deal through parliament in just 10 days — including holding late-night and weekend sittings — in a further sign of Downing Street's determination to negotiate an orderly exit from the EU.

According to Number 10 officials, Mr Johnson's team has drawn up detailed plans under which the prime minister would secure a deal with the EU at a Brussels summit on October 17-18, before pushing the new withdrawal deal through parliament at breakneck speed.

The pound rose 1.1 per cent against the US dollar to $1.247 on Friday amid growing optimism that Mr Johnson has now decisively shifted away from the prospect of a no-deal exit and is focused on a compromise largely based on Theresa May's withdrawal agreement.

Officials in Dublin and Brussels say there are signs of movement from Mr Johnson as he searches for a compromise on the Irish backstop, the contentious insurance policy against a return to a hard border in Ireland, although both sides remain far apart. EU diplomats said that talks on Friday in Brussels between the European Commission and UK negotiators had been more productive than previous meetings.

An EU diplomatic note said that Britain seemed willing to stick with some of what had been agreed by Mrs May to prevent animal health checks at the Irish border, and so keep food and livestock moving freely on the island. The UK is even "considering" keeping Northern Ireland aligned with future EU rule changes, according to the note. Diplomats cautioned, however, that important points remained unresolved, and that this would be only part of the solution for avoiding a hard Irish border. Britain has also yet to make written proposals and EU officials are worried about the lack of time left to secure any new agreement before the UK's scheduled departure date of October 31.

On Monday, Mr Johnson will travel to Luxembourg to meet European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker to discuss the prospects for a deal — their first meeting since the Tory leader entered Downing Street in July. Meanwhile Tory chief whip Mark Spencer has told hardline Eurosceptic rebels they will be thrown out of the party if they reject any deal Mr Johnson negotiates in Brussels. Let's hope that this is a sign that the time of British Brexit wish-wash is finally coming to an end and that Number 10 is seriously interested in finding a solution EU diplomat At the same time Mr Johnson is trying to charm some hardliners, inviting Eurosceptic MPs to Chequers, his country retreat, for drinks on Friday night.

One MP appeared resigned to backing Mr Johnson if he secured a compromise deal: "He hasn't really got anywhere else to go. Let's see what he gets in Brussels." Nikki da Costa, the prime minister's head of legislative affairs, has told colleagues she is confident that if a deal emerges from the next European Council, it could be passed into law before October 31. "Nikki has told us she has a plan to pass a Brexit deal in 10 days flat," said one senior government official. "Parliament might be sitting every day and night, including the weekend, but she is confident we can leave on October 31 with a deal." "It is technically possible to get the necessary legislation through in around 10 days — we have just seen MPs pass a bill in one day in the Commons," said Maddy Thimont Jack, from the Institute for Government think-tank. She added, however, that "rushing it through in this way means little time for proper scrutiny".

At their meeting on Monday, Mr Juncker is expected to push Mr Johnson to come forward with a detailed Brexit proposal, warning that time is short and that any solution must protect the all-Ireland economy and the EU's single market. Recommended Bronwen Maddox Brexit threatens to reopen old wounds in Northern Ireland "Let's hope that this is a sign that the time of British Brexit wish-wash is finally coming to an end and that Number 10 is seriously interested in finding a solution," said one EU diplomat.

Many in Brussels are convinced that the only solution lies in returning to a "Northern Ireland-only" version of the backstop, an idea proposed by the EU in early 2018 but rejected by Mrs May. That plan would scrap the alternative all-UK customs union with the EU which was rejected three times by MPs, and would require checks on goods crossing the Irish Sea. Arlene Foster, leader of the Democratic Unionist party which supports the Tory government, described as "nonsense" suggestions she would be prepared to accept a border in the Irish Sea, but the party is nevertheless engaging in a search for a compromise.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on September 14, 2019, 12:25:33 AM
Yes I heard an interview with someone from the Irish government a couple of days ago where they were being very positive about that proposal, so it wouldn't surprise me if it was on the cards.

If BJ asked for an extension without having a new proposal, would the EU reject him?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 14, 2019, 12:36:15 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on September 14, 2019, 12:25:33 AM
If BJ asked for an extension without having a new proposal, would the EU reject him?

Of course, the EU wants to get rid of the issue right now. New elections are no guarantee that the deadlock could be lifted, that might even require a 2nd referendum. But ultimately the EU wouldn't refuse an extension if there will be elections, not even the French would veto.

A possible twist could be that the EU might only offer a very long extension, also known a the "time out". That could even be as long as the 3,5 years to the next European elections.

Boris will want to avoid that scenario, because a delay as long as that will inevitably lead to the UK remaining in the EU.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on September 14, 2019, 02:09:56 AM
If anyone comes across a good journal or paper covering the recent turbulent events, please let me know and I'll buy it. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Pat B on September 16, 2019, 09:47:13 AM
Quote from: Que on September 14, 2019, 12:21:42 AM
So, Johnson has a plan B to prevent having to ask for a delay: signing off on the deal May negotiated but with an Northern Ireland-only backstop, as originally proposed by the EU.

Even the DUP seems now to be wavering, realising that if they stand in the way of a deal they will commit electoral suicide because of the dire consequences of a no deal Brexit for NI...

Fascinating. I mean, it makes sense to do customs checks at places that are already configured for customs checks, but the implications for NI...

How are the Brexiters in European Parliament behaving?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on September 25, 2019, 05:13:55 AM

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/23/election-britain-brexit-climate-austerity-2020s

QuoteThe truth is that Brexit was never a unilateralist project but an Atlanticist one. For the Brexiters now in the cabinet, the project was never about splendid isolation but rather diverging from the European social and economic model, and embracing the American way of life. That means a sink-or-swim society, with much lower levels of social protection. Its moral principles are spartan: the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on September 25, 2019, 06:43:01 AM
That principle was actually not Spartan, but Athens vs. Melos (who wanted to remain neutral in the war between Athens and Sparta) as a classicist like Johnson certainly would know. And the UK was going in that direction since almost 40 years ago when Thatcher came into power. So it could be one factor but hardly the main one, I think.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on September 25, 2019, 07:13:50 AM
Quote from: Jo498 on September 25, 2019, 06:43:01 AM
That principle was actually not Spartan, but Athens vs. Melos (who wanted to remain neutral in the war between Athens and Sparta) as a classicist like Johnson certainly would know. And the UK was going in that direction since almost 40 years ago when Thatcher came into power. So it could be one factor but hardly the main one, I think.

I believe that the British population have been prepared for this since Thatcher, through the process of goal oriented, results oriented, target driven training they get in schools from the age of 5.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on September 25, 2019, 08:01:19 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on September 25, 2019, 05:13:55 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/23/election-britain-brexit-climate-austerity-2020s

An excellent article. I was most struck by this:

QuoteIt is often said that the UK has an « unwritten constitution », but that diverts us from its true character: our constitution belongs to the ruling class, not to the people. It is a set of rules and conventions for how the elite will conduct themselves as they govern the masses. 

Absent a profound shake-up of that unwritten arrangement, troubles will only increase and the divide grow.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 28, 2019, 01:23:54 AM
Brexit: EU leaders believe new extension is 'likely' (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49847804) (BBC)

"Always keen to kick the can down the road when agreement can't yet be reached, EU diplomats muse that, with his options dwindling, Boris Johnson could choose to make a big stand at the October summit, ostentatiously refusing to ask for an extension when he meets with EU leaders (to score points with hard-line Brexiteers at home) and then resign. This would allow him to keep his hands clean of any extension, while a caretaker government requests one.

EU hopefuls cite this hypothetical scenario as a reason not to give up. A three-month extension, they say, could allow time to agree a compromise Brexit deal with the UK by the end of the year."


A resignation by Johnson after the EU summit, is indeed the most likely scenario IMO.

BTW there is talk of a longer extension than the 3 months thd UK opposition had in mind, till mid 2020.
This would be a smart move, considering the volatility of UK politics.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on October 01, 2019, 12:01:54 PM
An insult to the primates I think:
(//)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on October 01, 2019, 12:27:23 PM
This one seems a bit more appropriate
(https://www.britishmuseum.org/collectionimages/AN00135/AN00135830_001_l.jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on October 01, 2019, 01:30:05 PM

An old classic...

(https://www.christies.com/img/LotImages/2008/CKS/2008_CKS_07575_0008_000().jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 01, 2019, 02:08:56 PM
At this moment, I'm convinced that the fight over Brexit will take place during the upcoming general elections - somewhere late November or December.

If the Tories win a majority, the exit from the EU will be settled. If not, a referendum might be next.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on October 01, 2019, 02:37:20 PM
Quote from: André on October 01, 2019, 01:30:05 PM
An old classic...

(https://www.christies.com/img/LotImages/2008/CKS/2008_CKS_07575_0008_000().jpg)
Indeed!
:)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on October 03, 2019, 08:36:49 AM
This was posted on another forum, I hope no one will mind if I put it here, I thought it was interesting and I'm curious about what people who have a feeling for the EU (e.g. Que) think about it.

Quote

I am sure the euro will oblige us to introduce a new set of economic policy instruments. It is politically impossible to propose that now. But some day there will be a crisis and new instruments will be created."

Romano Prodi

It looks like their moment is imminent. The happy hubristic theologians at the EC, obsessed only with their systematic destruction of sovereign Brexit, or any brexit at all, are blissfully oblivious of the storm clouds that are now rapidly gathering over the world economy. Yesterday the Dow fell by 500 points, and equities fell sharply in all the world markets. US PMI figures have come in at 47.9%, and in Sweden, which is considered to be a bellweather for the EU economies, export PMI fell even further to the mid-forties. German industry is in recession because punters in China and the anglosphere have stopped buying. Italy's debt/GDP ratio hit 135%. The ECB's ammunition lockers are empty, and the institution's presidency is about to be taken by an unqualified fraudster with a string of past failures to her name. The EU's own forecasters have stated in recent days that 'the global threat to the German economy has become 'acute', and that a disorderly Brexit would have grave consequences' for the Eurozone.

This thing is going to make brexit look like a storm in the proverbial teacup, and the gauleiters at the EC are all looking the other way. The question isn't going to be whether the EU is going to succeed in using the chaos to create their longed-for fiscal/political union, it is going to be existential.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 03, 2019, 11:15:56 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on October 03, 2019, 08:36:49 AM
This was posted on another forum, I hope no one will mind if I put it here, I thought it was interesting and I'm curious about what people who have a feeling for the EU (e.g. Que) think about it.

I have little doubt that we are heading towards to a global economic and geopolitical crisis in which the EU, and the Western world in general, will have to fight for its existence. And yes,  if the EU is going to survive that crisis, it will trigger further integration and enhancement of its powers.... like every crisis before it.

But Brexit has very little to do with it, other than being the byproduct of the anxiety and existential fear that is preceding the global crisis. The UK is jumping out of the lifeboat, thinking it can swim better than anyone else. Good luck with that....  ???

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: ritter on October 03, 2019, 11:28:47 AM
Well, the language used by the author of those two paragraphs ("happy hubristic theologians", "gauleiters at the EC") clearly lets us know "of which foot he (or she) limps" as we say in Spain, and almost in itself disqualifies the comments made. But still, I see no arguments in that post to indicate that Europe is less prepared to face any  economic challenges with the support of EU (the EC doesn't exist anymore) than without it. Actually, with the benefit of hindsight, the EU weathered the storms of the early years of the current decade rather successfully, and the hardships endured  by inhabitants of the countries hit the strongest (Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain) are mostly a thing of the past (and we'll never known how things would have turned out if the EU hadn't been there).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on October 03, 2019, 11:53:11 AM
Quote from: Que on October 03, 2019, 11:15:56 AM


But Brexit has very little to do with it, other than being the byproduct of the anxiety and existential fear that is preceding the global crisis. The UK is jumping out of the lifeboat, thinking it can swim better than anyone else. Good luck with that....  ???

Q

"Rule, Britannia! rule the waves:
Britons never never never will be slaves."

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 06, 2019, 01:45:47 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on October 03, 2019, 11:53:11 AM
"Rule, Britannia! rule the waves:
Britons never never never will be slaves."

Those words ring hollow indeed...

Not only in present circumstances, but also in light of the not so distant past - in which the British Empire ruled a quarter of the world, with over 400 million people living in subjugation by the British.

But despite the claims by various British politicians, the European Union is not an occupying power.
The UK is free to leave. And if you would ask politicians in the EU-27, rather sooner than later....
Ordinary people I have found more forgiving, probably because many of them also fell at some time or another for the conspiracy theories against the EU and the luring slogan "we are better off, fending for ourselves".

But the lessons from Nazi and Soviet occupation are probably strong enough to resist temptation. There is a reason why Switzerland never joined the EU and why the UK wants out.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on October 06, 2019, 02:54:31 AM
Quote from: Que on October 06, 2019, 01:45:47 AM
But the lessons from Nazi and Soviet occupation are probably strong enough to resist temptation. There is a reason why Switzerland never joined the EU and why the UK wants out.

I don't get it. Could you please clarify?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 06, 2019, 03:05:32 AM
Quote from: Florestan on October 06, 2019, 02:54:31 AM
I don't get it. Could you please clarify?

Sure, that's not that hard.... The terrible experiences of WW II and its aftermath led to the founding of the EU and its expansion.

Certain nations survived the ordeal of WW II with the illusion intact that they don't really need anyone else and can fend for themselves. This is a major factor in their attitude towards the European Union and European integration.
If Hitler had occupied Switzerland, it would have been a member of the EU long, long time ago...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on October 06, 2019, 08:00:03 AM
Quote from: Que on October 03, 2019, 11:15:56 AMBut Brexit has very little to do with it, other than being the byproduct of the anxiety and existential fear that is preceding the global crisis. The UK is jumping out of the lifeboat, thinking it can swim better than anyone else. Good luck with that....  ???

Quite. Though a number of Brexiteers don't seem to mind drowning too much, as long as they drown having left the EU.

The ever repugnant Johnson continues to surf on a global tide of inward-lookingness, feeling no doubt that it is so strong that he just has to keep churning out his faux-Churchillian crap and he'll eventually achieve his aims. And in this I have to depressingly concur with him. Reason long ago ceased to play any major role in this debate, and the national process of removing one's nose to spite one's face seems to continue unstoppably, despite the bumps in the road, cheered to the rafters by the Brexiteers.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on October 06, 2019, 10:47:41 AM
Quote from: Que on October 06, 2019, 03:05:32 AM
Sure, that's not that hard.... The terrible experiences of WW II and its aftermath led to the founding of the EU and its expansion.

Certain nations survived the ordeal of WW II with the illusion intact that they don't really need anyone else and can fend for themselves. This is a major factor in their attitude towards the European Union and European integration.
If Hitler had occupied Switzerland, it would have been a member of the EU long, long time ago...

Q

Got it now, thanks for the explanation.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on October 07, 2019, 02:27:54 AM
What Que says is very much to the point. The "national story" that I was taught was of a Britain which, alone in  Europe, was strong enough to resist invasion and save the world from the Germans. With help from the USA, our natural and eternal friend and ally. The peace keeping aspect of the EC is rather marginal to how I was brought up to think and feel.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on October 07, 2019, 03:52:32 AM
Quote from: Que on October 06, 2019, 03:05:32 AM
If Hitler had occupied Switzerland, it would have been a member of the EU long, long time ago...

I'm not so sure. See Norway, occupied by Hitler yet reluctant to join the EU. Conversely, Spain and Portugal joined the EU although they were never occupied by the Nazis.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on October 07, 2019, 04:09:32 AM
Modern power is usually wielded not by occupation but by the marginally softer tools of bureaucracy, treaties and especially economic power. (It was already known by Wagner's Wotan that treaties are usually more powerful than swords.)

I think the peace-keeping function of the EU is largely a pretension. The peace in Europe was kept because of the Cold War and a Hot War would have devastated most of the continent or the world. After the Eastern bloc collapsed the EU couldn't do anything to prevent wars at its southeastern border in former Yugoslavia. And we have happily engaged in smallish wars far away ever since the late 1990s.

And of course nowadays there is no larger danger of a war of France with the Swiss or Norwegians than with the Spanish.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on October 07, 2019, 05:08:14 AM
Quote from: Jo498 on October 07, 2019, 04:09:32 AM
treaties are usually more powerful than swords.

Except when they are not.  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on October 07, 2019, 08:34:52 AM
Quote from: Florestan on October 07, 2019, 03:52:32 AM
I'm not so sure. See Norway, occupied by Hitler yet reluctant to join the EU. Conversely, Spain and Portugal joined the EU although they were never occupied by the Nazis.
Both Switzerland and Norway are part of the EU system in all major respects (and totally unlike the consequences of Brexit); and Spain and Portugal had to deal with Nazi-sponsored regimes to become hard-won democracies in the late 1970s only. Those experiences loom large enough and help to explain their present European orientation.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on October 07, 2019, 08:41:20 AM
Quote from: Christo on October 07, 2019, 08:34:52 AM
Both Switzerland and Norway are part of the EU system in all major respects

Except they are not EU members.

Quote
Spain and Portugal had to deal with Nazi-sponsored regimes

Hitler's military help to Franco might indeed qualify as sponsorship, but how was Salazar, an outspoken enemy of Nazism, sponsored by the Nazis?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 07, 2019, 09:57:58 PM
Guys, there be other reasons to stay out, or to get in....  8)

Norway is part of the internal market and other arrangements (like Schengen (=common travel area)), but stayed out because of its fishery interests, its huge oil reserves played a role as well. These issues might be a future issue for an independent Scotland as well, though time has moved on...

The Swiss are not part of the internal market and are connected to the EU by a myriad of bilateral agreements.
Swiss politicians have urged the Swiss people to join the EU several times, but they stick to the wartime fairytale that they are better off alone and that joining any alliance would be against Swiss interest.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 20, 2019, 12:57:09 AM
And the excruciating Brexit saga continues.....

Drama, delay, anticlimax – big day ends in confusion as Letwin's amendment scuppers Johnson's Brexit plan (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/20/anticlimax-as-letwin-plan-scuppers-johnson-brexit-deal)

A short summary of events unfolding...

Johnson threw the DUP (hardline Northern Irish Protestant unionists) under bus and agreed a new exit deal with the EU that contsins a special customs' arrangement for Northern Ireland. Johnson was close to a parliamentary majority for his deal, aided by general Brexit fatigue. Some MP's are now ready to vote for any deal, just "to get it over with". Which is a misconception BTW: even if Johnson secures this exit deal, it's not over - not by a long shot...

But the UK parliament voted for another delay of the final exit vote, until all necessary legislation implementing the deal is in place. This out of fear that hardline Brexiteers, once they secured the exit from the EU would sabotage the implementation of the deal to achieve a no-deal Brexit.

Johnson has sent the by law required letter to the EU to request for an extension. But he didn't sign the letter, and sent another one in which he argues against an extension. It is not my field of legal expertise, but I wouldn't be surprised of that constitutes a breach of his obligations under law and a contempt of parliament.

What happens now? The thing with delays is that they open the door to all kinds if possibilities.
Johnson will soon put the matter to another vote. Will the speaker of parliament allow him to do so?
Will the EU grant the extension? Probably so.
Will a required confirmatory popular vote in a 2nd referendum be attached to a parliamentary consent to the exit deal? Not unlikely....
Will there be general elections once Johnson's 2nd attempt fails and the EU agrees to an extension? Probably...

So my guess is: general elections and perhaps a second referendum.

And mind you: this is just the drama about getting out of the EU....
Nothing has yet been agreed about the UK's future relationship with the EU, which could be very close (Norway) or not so close (Canada). Those negotiations are next....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on October 20, 2019, 05:52:44 AM
Quote from: Que on October 20, 2019, 12:57:09 AM
And the excruciating Brexit saga continues.....

Drama, delay, anticlimax – big day ends in confusion as Letwin's amendment scuppers Johnson's Brexit plan (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/20/anticlimax-as-letwin-plan-scuppers-johnson-brexit-deal)

A short summary of events unfolding...

Johnson threw the DUP (hardline Northern Irish Protestant unionists) under bus and agreed a new exit deal with the EU that contsins a special customs' arrangement for Northern Ireland. Johnson was close to a parliamentary majority for his deal, aided by general Brexit fatigue. Some MP's are now ready to vote for any deal, just "to get it over with". Which is a misconception BTW: even if Johnson secures this exit deal, it's not over - not by a long shot...

But the UK parliament voted for another delay of the final exit vote, until all necessary legislation implementing the deal is in place. This out of fear that hardline Brexiteers, once they secured the exit from the EU would sabotage the implementation of the deal to achieve a no-deal Brexit.

Johnson has sent the by law required letter to the EU to request for an extension. But he didn't sign the letter, and sent another one in which he argues against an extension. It is not my field of legal expertise, but I wouldn't be surprised of that constitutes a breach of his obligations under law and a contempt of parliament.

What happens now? The thing with delays is that they open the door to all kinds if possibilities.
Johnson will soon put the matter to another vote. Will the speaker of parliament allow him to do so?
Will the EU grant the extension? Probably so.
Will a required confirmatory popular vote in a 2nd referendum be attached to a parliamentary consent to the exit deal? Not unlikely....
Will there be general elections once Johnson's 2nd attempt fails and the EU agrees to an extension? Probably...

So my guess is: general elections and perhaps a second referendum.

And mind you: this is just the drama about getting out of the EU....
Nothing has yet been agreed about the UK's future relationship with the EU, which could be very close (Norway) or not so close (Canada). Those negotiations are next....

Q

It could be said that the one thrown under a bus is Johnson. Again Guardian: https://uk.yahoo.com/news/dup-humiliated-westminster-northern-ireland-172036505.html
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 20, 2019, 06:24:47 AM
Quote from: Irons on October 20, 2019, 05:52:44 AM
It could be said that the one thrown under a bus is Johnson. Again Guardian: https://uk.yahoo.com/news/dup-humiliated-westminster-northern-ireland-172036505.html

True.  Let's say Johnson and the DUP fell out...
Not that I  think Johnson had much choice BTW, if he wanted a deal with the EU.
He himself didn't want the whole of the UK in closer alignment with the EU, as May agreed.
So the only other option that would also be acceptable to the EU, was a special arrangement for NI, which was softened to keep NI in a customs union with the rest of the UK.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on October 20, 2019, 11:28:52 AM
Quote from: Que on October 20, 2019, 06:24:47 AM
True.  Let's say Johnson and the DUP fell out...
Not that I  think Johnson had much choice BTW, if he wanted a deal with the EU.
He himself didn't want the whole of the UK in closer alignment with the EU, as May agreed.
So the only other option that would also be acceptable to the EU, was a special arrangement for NI, which was softened to keep NI in a customs union with the rest of the UK.

Q

Agreed. The word "backstop" grew to mythical proportions and supposedly the reason Mays's deal was unacceptable. Boris managed to negotiate this out of the deal but as you say there must be some give and take, The EU has been reasonable over the Irish situation and as Merkel said it was a UK problem not EU. I think Boris thought he had the DUP on side but it wasn't to be.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on October 21, 2019, 06:36:09 PM
https://xkcd.com/2218/
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 21, 2019, 09:27:07 PM
Quote from: JBS on October 21, 2019, 06:36:09 PM
https://xkcd.com/2218/

:D

(https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/wardrobe.png)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 22, 2019, 10:34:26 PM
EU moves towards Brexit delay as PM Johnson seeks election to break impasse (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-delay/eu-moves-towards-brexit-delay-as-pm-johnson-seeks-election-to-break-impasse-idUSKBN1X12OB) (Reuters)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on October 23, 2019, 07:00:35 AM
Quote from: Que on October 22, 2019, 10:34:26 PM
EU moves towards Brexit delay as PM Johnson seeks election to break impasse (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-delay/eu-moves-towards-brexit-delay-as-pm-johnson-seeks-election-to-break-impasse-idUSKBN1X12OB) (Reuters)

The UK thanks to Brexit has entered a parallel universe. The sitting head of government is pleading for a general election and the leader of the opposition is denying him one. You couldn't make it up!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Karl Henning on October 23, 2019, 07:05:29 AM
Quote from: Irons on October 23, 2019, 07:00:35 AM
The UK thanks to Brexit has entered a parallel universe. The sitting head of government is pleading for a general election and the leader of the opposition is denying him one. You couldn't make it up!

Truly!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 26, 2019, 02:09:12 AM
An interesting analysis of recent events by Chris Grey*:

Brexit in limbo (https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/brexit-in-limbo.html)


*Professor of Organization Studies at Royal Holloway, University of London, previously a Professor at Cambridge University and Warwick University, fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences (FAcSS).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on October 26, 2019, 06:05:14 AM
Thanks for that que.


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on October 26, 2019, 06:14:30 AM
Quote from: Irons on October 23, 2019, 07:00:35 AM
The UK thanks to Brexit has entered a parallel universe. The sitting head of government is pleading for a general election and the leader of the opposition is denying him one. You couldn't make it up!

I don't understand why you're so astonished. The sitting head of government is pleading for a general election because he thinks he can win it and the leader of the opposition is denying him one because he's not sure he can win it. It's just standard political tactic, nothing to be shocked about, really.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on October 27, 2019, 06:33:59 AM
Quote from: Florestan on October 26, 2019, 06:14:30 AM
I don't understand why you're so astonished. The sitting head of government is pleading for a general election because he thinks he can win it and the leader of the opposition is denying him one because he's not sure he can win it. It's just standard political tactic, nothing to be shocked about, really.

But that is daft (in a non-Brexit world). The leader of the opposition refuses the opportunity of power because there is a chance he may lose! A tactic new to me.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on October 27, 2019, 10:45:47 AM
Quote from: Irons on October 27, 2019, 06:33:59 AM
But that is daft (in a non-Brexit world). The leader of the opposition refuses the opportunity of power because there is a chance he may lose! A tactic new to me.

Put yourself in Corbyn's shoes. What would you do?

I mean, what would you do all things considered?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on October 27, 2019, 12:32:05 PM
Quote from: Florestan on October 27, 2019, 10:45:47 AM
Put yourself in Corbyn's shoes. What would you do?

I mean, what would you do all things considered?

I would do what he is doing because "all things" = Brexit. Our (UK) Parliament is distorted to a dangerous degree due to this nightmare Brexit. Politicians are making decisions that in normal circumstances would not be made - which is the point I was attempting to make.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on October 27, 2019, 07:03:47 PM

Some serious thinking going on there...


https://mobile.twitter.com/julianpopov/status/1185664196178042880 (https://mobile.twitter.com/julianpopov/status/1185664196178042880)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on October 28, 2019, 01:25:19 AM
Quote from: André on October 27, 2019, 07:03:47 PM
Some serious thinking going on there...


https://mobile.twitter.com/julianpopov/status/1185664196178042880 (https://mobile.twitter.com/julianpopov/status/1185664196178042880)

:laugh:
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on October 28, 2019, 01:30:06 AM
Quote from: Irons on October 27, 2019, 12:32:05 PM
Politicians are making decisions that in normal circumstances would not be made.

I'm not that sure. I think that even in normal circumstances a politician would prefer a situation of being in opposition with, say, 40% of the seats rather than going to a snap election which might result in his party remaining in opposition but with, say, only 32% of the seats. YMMV.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: ritter on October 28, 2019, 04:38:17 AM
Quote from: Florestan on October 28, 2019, 01:30:06 AM
I'm not that sure. I think that even in normal circumstances a politician would prefer a situation of being in opposition with, say, 40% of the seats rather than going to a snap election which might result in his party remaining in opposition but with, say, only 32% of the seats. YMMV.
Makes sense...The question that follows, of course, is whether said party should seek another leader.  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on October 28, 2019, 05:04:39 AM
Quote from: ritter on October 28, 2019, 04:38:17 AM
Makes sense...The question that follows, of course, is whether said party should seek another leader.  ;)

Of course.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on October 28, 2019, 08:44:58 AM
Quote from: Florestan on October 28, 2019, 01:30:06 AM
I'm not that sure. I think that even in normal circumstances a politician would prefer a situation of being in opposition with, say, 40% of the seats rather than going to a snap election which might result in his party remaining in opposition but with, say, only 32% of the seats. YMMV.

When May called an election she was way ahead in the polls (something she said she would not do). As the campaign proceeded Corbyn dismantled her share of the vote. Sure she won but it was a pyrrhic victory as Boris was to find out. The British voting public have form in confounding the pollsters. It worries me greatly that Corbyn could win but deep down I am not sure he wants it - to be PM.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on October 28, 2019, 09:01:27 AM
Quote from: Irons on October 28, 2019, 08:44:58 AM
When May called an election she was way ahead in the polls (something she said she would not do). As the campaign proceeded Corbyn dismantled her share of the vote. Sure she won but it was a pyrrhic victory as Boris was to find out. The British voting public have form in confounding the pollsters. It worries me greatly that Corbyn could win but deep down I am not sure he wants it - to be PM.

I think no sane person would want to be PM in these times.  :)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on October 28, 2019, 11:09:10 AM
Quote from: Irons on October 27, 2019, 12:32:05 PM
I would do what he is doing because "all things" = Brexit. Our (UK) Parliament is distorted to a dangerous degree due to this nightmare Brexit. Politicians are making decisions that in normal circumstances would not be made - which is the point I was attempting to make.

My own speculation (based on nothing more than my status as a member of the GMG Big Brain Brigade, and not on any special insight or knowledge) is that Corbyn would prefer to be the PM who cleans up after Brexit and "saves" the country from catastrophe than the PM who presides over Brexit...that in part being based on my feeling that Corbyn is far more interested in what's good for Corbyn than he is in what's good for the UK.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on October 29, 2019, 12:53:10 AM
Quote from: JBS on October 28, 2019, 11:09:10 AM
My own speculation (based on nothing more than my status as a member of the GMG Big Brain Brigade, and not on any special insight or knowledge) is that Corbyn would prefer to be the PM who cleans up after Brexit and "saves" the country from catastrophe than the PM who presides over Brexit...that in part being based on my feeling that Corbyn is far more interested in what's good for Corbyn than he is in what's good for the UK.

You have a point. There is one thing worth mentioning in that Corbyn is a keen allotment holder. I am too, and digging up spuds gives far more pleasure then all the hassle of running a country especially when in your 70's.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on October 30, 2019, 04:57:08 AM
Looks like Corbyn changed his mind. Elections December 12.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on October 30, 2019, 08:15:21 AM
Quote from: Florestan on October 30, 2019, 04:57:08 AM
Looks like Corbyn changed his mind. Elections December 12.

A strange decision which I didn't expect. Half of his party were against and told him so. The most likely reason is that the Liberals and Scottish Nats were for a December election and for him to put a block on it would result in him being accused of cowardice. The fanciful reason is that he is locked in a job he doesn't want and losing an election usually results in a change of leader.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Karl Henning on October 31, 2019, 11:58:10 AM
Surge in young voting registrants (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/31/surge-young-people-registering-to-vote-general-election)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on November 01, 2019, 01:28:54 AM
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on October 31, 2019, 11:58:10 AM
Surge in young voting registrants (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/31/surge-young-people-registering-to-vote-general-election)

Corbynesters.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: drogulus on November 04, 2019, 06:44:15 AM


     No 10 blocks Russia EU referendum report until after election (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/04/no-10-blocks-russia-eu-referendum-report-until-after-election?CMP=share_btn_tw)

A final draft of the Russian dossier, the product of 18-months work, was sent to Downing Street on 17 October and was originally intended for publication early this week. Political approval had been expected by the end of last week.

It was intended to be the last step in what is conventionally a complex sign-off process. The report has already been cleared by Britain's spy agencies, which contributed to the research.

Christopher Steele, the former MI6 spy who authored a dossier about Donald Trump's links to Moscow, also gave written evidence to the inquiry. His firm Orbis has documented Russian attempts to influence election outcomes in several European states and the 2016 US presidential election.

The committee's report is understood to examine allegations that Russian money has flowed into British politics in general and the Conservative party in particular. It also features claims that Russia launched a major influence operation in 2016 in support of Brexit.


     The government is buying time in order to find the Ukrainians responsible.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 09, 2019, 01:37:41 AM
All quiet on the Brexit front (https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/all-quiet-on-brexit-front.html)

The title says it alll....  ::)

In his blog Chris Grey discusses the Brexit intentions of the various parties, and their plausibility.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on November 10, 2019, 12:30:52 AM
Quote from: Que on November 09, 2019, 01:37:41 AM
All quiet on the Brexit front (https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/all-quiet-on-brexit-front.html)

The title says it alll....  ::)

In his blog Chris Grey discusses the Brexit intentions of the various parties, and their plausibility.

Q

It has and what a blessed relief! There is no ambiguity the voters know where each of the four parties stand so believe it or not there is little to discuss. There is a danger that if a new hung parliament it will all start up again but I don't think it will. Both UK and EU are sick to the back teeth with Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 30, 2019, 12:06:17 AM
As Boris Johnson's elections victory draws near (probably not a landslide, but a working majority), Brexit will enter a new phase...

Sir Ivan Roger, the former Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom to the European Union, explains in his Brexit lecture at the University of Glasgow what lies ahead. Please note: a long read, and a not a particularly comforting Christmas story....

The Ghost of Christmas yet to come (https://policyscotland.gla.ac.uk/ghost-of-christmas-yet-to-come-brexit-lecture-full-text/)

To get into the Christmas spirit, here is the image of the Ghost of Christmas yet to come from Charles Dickens' A Christmas Carol:

(https://www.gutenberg.org/files/46/46-h/images/07.jpg)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on November 30, 2019, 06:40:04 AM
A very göod read from one in the know who knows the realities, and is dispassionate about the political grandstanding. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on November 30, 2019, 07:51:25 AM
This whole mess has been going on for three years yet nobody knows what the Queen of the UK and the heir to the UK throne think about it. If they are not interested in the fate of the country they are supposed to represent, then what's their use?  If they are interested, why do they keep silent?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on November 30, 2019, 11:32:38 AM
Quote from: Florestan on November 30, 2019, 07:51:25 AM
This whole mess has been going on for three years yet nobody knows what the Queen of the UK and the heir to the UK throne think about it. If they are not interested in the fate of the country they are supposed to represent, then what's their use?  If they are interested, why do they keep silent?
I'm sure they are interested but they are not supposed to show any political bias, despite David Cameron's involvement of the Queen in the Scottish independence referendum (and then not being able to resist bragging about it in his recently published autobiography).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 30, 2019, 12:54:53 PM
The Queen might be very concerned...
She inherited an empire in which the sun did not set, but her reign coincided with its decline.
I'm sure she is not looking forward to live to witness the final chapter - the break up of the United Kingdom itself, nearly a century after the Irish independence.....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on November 30, 2019, 11:17:27 PM
Quote from: Que on November 30, 2019, 12:54:53 PM
The Queen might be very concerned...
She inherited an empire in which the sun did not set, but her reign coincided with its decline.
I'm sure she is not looking forward to life to witness the final chapter - the break up of the United Kingdom itself, nearly a century after the Irish independence.....

Q

Yes, this is now a definite possibility as a consequence as Cameron's idiotic decision to hold a referendum, which would inevitably polarise the country.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 01, 2019, 12:17:40 AM
It is striking that the decline of the British Empire, that was ushered in by Irish independence, might now end with Scottish independence - and a possible Irish unification in the longer run. Of course the Irish independence was triggered by the 1st World War, which directly led to the fall of the Austrian, German, Russian and Ottoman empires. The British Empire didn't fall, but slowly declined over a century.

I'm sorry to say, but from a historical perspective Brexit is fascinating.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 01, 2019, 12:45:21 AM
Quote from: Que on December 01, 2019, 12:17:40 AM
It is striking that the decline of the British Empire, that was ushered in by Irish independence, might now end with Scottish independence - and a possible Irish unification in the longer run. Of course the Irish independence was triggered by the 1st World War, which directly led to the fall of the Austrian, German, Russian and Ottoman empires. The British Empire didn't fall, but slowly declined over a century.

I'm sorry to say, but from a historical perspective Brexit is fascinating.

Q

No, I understand that. The decline of Britain began, I think, in the late 19th Century when other countries began to 'catch up' with Britain's industrial lead. For example the German coal mines were newer, therefore cheaper to extract the coal which was nearer the surface. India developing it's own textile industry, the USA etc. There is an interesting paradox in that Britain became more self-consciously 'imperial' (Royal processions etc) as she started to decline as a great power (like a reaction-formation). The decline was, to some extent masked, by the isolationism of the USA between the wars and by allied victory in World War One, which also accelerated Britain's decline.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on December 01, 2019, 05:03:05 AM
Very perceptive analysis, Jeffrey.

Britain's dominance ebbed as other powers' economic/industrial/military might rapidly grew (Germany and the USA, as you point out). Its preeminence was definitely a thing of the past when WWI was over.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on December 01, 2019, 08:53:37 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on December 01, 2019, 12:45:21 AMThere is an interesting paradox in that Britain became more self-consciously 'imperial' (Royal processions etc) as she started to decline as a great power (like a reaction-formation).

An excellent point, and the empty, puffing out of the chest parallels with Brexit, are hard to miss, but perhaps there were rational, practical reasons for it, perhaps it did something to steady the ship back then, whether or not one liked it.

Brexit on the other hand it seems to me, will be a farcical pyrrhic victory, self-inflicted economic and cultural stagnation, with scant reward for anyone. Alf Garnett roused out of his armchair to tilt at windmills, to sit back down again and blame everybody else for what goes wrong afterwards. Those are at the very least, evident elements of an event that I still can't quite believe is happening.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on December 04, 2019, 11:07:48 AM
Amusing questionnaire here

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/survey3d.html

This is me


(https://i.imgur.com/IIPuJZG.png)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on December 05, 2019, 12:00:37 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on December 04, 2019, 11:07:48 AM
Amusing questionnaire here

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/survey3d.html


I answered with Romania instead of UK in mind.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 05, 2019, 12:46:29 AM
Quote from: André on December 01, 2019, 05:03:05 AM
Very perceptive analysis, Jeffrey.

Britain's dominance ebbed as other powers' economic/industrial/military might rapidly grew (Germany and the USA, as you point out). Its preeminence was definitely a thing of the past when WWI was over.

Thanks André and Iota (I agree with your 'Alf Garnett' comment). It's very dispiriting living through all this. Johnson-supporting members of the public who refer to him as 'a leader' bring to mind Mick Jagger's response to a question asking him to identify what he considered to be the most overrated virtue. His response was 'natural born leader'. Personally I identify with the Taoist observation on leadership, namely 'always choose as your leader one who would rather be excused'. On Britain's decline I found this book, which I read many years ago, to be insightful. Many would imagine that these great royal processions and displays of imperial pageantry go back hundreds of years. But they don't - they date from the later Victorian period and the start of Britain's economic decline:
(//)
I remember the author pointing out that the image of 'England' is always identified with the countryside, the village green, tea on the lawn, the English landscape (think of all those Vaughan Williams and Elgar record sleeve images). He argues that Britain never incorporated industrialisation into its national self-image and it remained a kind of 'dirty' word - unacceptable to our ruling elite whose values resided (as they often did) in the countryside. If we think of America we think of the landscape and the cities (think of those Copland record sleeves). Britain never came to terms with its industrial pre-eminence which remained excluded from the national self-image. That's his argument as far as I remember anyway!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 05, 2019, 01:20:56 AM
Quote from: Iota on December 01, 2019, 08:53:37 AM
An excellent point, and the empty, puffing out of the chest parallels with Brexit, are hard to miss, but perhaps there were rational, practical reasons for it, perhaps it did something to steady the ship back then, whether or not one liked it.

Brexit on the other hand it seems to me, will be a farcical pyrrhic victory, self-inflicted economic and cultural stagnation, with scant reward for anyone. Alf Garnett roused out of his armchair to tilt at windmills, to sit back down again and blame everybody else for what goes wrong afterwards. Those are at the very least, evident elements of an event that I still can't quite believe is happening.

I'm sure you're right with your '...rational, practical reasons' comment. Think of the newly built 19th Century Houses of Parliament with its Neo-Gothic facade linking it with England's medieval past (notwithstanding the fact that the Gothic style originated in France) and stressing order, stability, tradition etc at the time when the ruling elite were fearing the rise of the 'urban mob' as a consequence of industrialisation, squalor and the social misery of inner-city life for many people. The large fountain in the middle of Trafalgar Square was placed there to discourage gatherings of large groups of alienated citizens in the centre of London.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on December 05, 2019, 01:27:17 AM
Not sure about the Britain-specifics, but the questions were not very nuanced and also loaded. (I can find the death penalty appropriate for certain crimes or criminals, say Breivik, but at the same time think that because of the possibility of error or the rarity of such worst crimes or general clemency or whatever the death penalty should be abolished anyway.) It turns out I am apparently a national socialist (or maybe "catholic workers party" ;) I think the marriage question made me strongly conservative which I am only in very few respects but apparently the ones salient today despite being mostly mainstream and not particular traditionalist only a few decades ago.). I don't know how I became so "national" as I tried answer most of these rather neutral. But it is probably again the case that such an amount of "globalism" has become the norm that the mere regulation of migration is considered "nationalist".
31° Left   
30° National   
46° Conservative
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 05, 2019, 04:02:47 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on December 05, 2019, 12:46:29 AM
I remember the author pointing out that the image of 'England' is always identified with the countryside, the village green, tea on the lawn, the English landscape (think of all those Vaughan Williams and Elgar record sleeve images). He argues that Britain never incorporated industrialisation into its national self-image and it remained a kind of 'dirty' word - unacceptable to our ruling elite whose values resided (as they often did) in the countryside. If we think of America we think of the landscape and the cities (think of those Copland record sleeves). Britain never came to terms with its industrial pre-eminence which remained excluded from the national self-image. That's his argument as far as I remember anyway!

Yes, look at all those "Escape to the Country" house hunting programmes. There's never been an "Escape to the City" series. When we part timers drive out to the country for a walk we see all those people who escaped stuck in the traffic jams on the other side of the road on their way into the city ::).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on December 05, 2019, 04:27:08 AM
Quote from: 2dogs on December 05, 2019, 04:02:47 AM
Yes, look at all those "Escape to the Country" house hunting programmes. There's never been an "Escape to the City" series. When we part timers drive out to the country for a walk we see all those people who escaped stuck in the traffic jams on the other side of the road on their way into the city ::).

Do you not remember the episode of Minder where Arthur Daley had to go on a trip to the countryside?

https://www.youtube.com/v/Y0OiBFvgqUw
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 05, 2019, 05:49:43 AM
Quote from: 2dogs on December 05, 2019, 04:02:47 AM
Yes, look at all those "Escape to the Country" house hunting programmes. There's never been an "Escape to the City" series. When we part timers drive out to the country for a walk we see all those people who escaped stuck in the traffic jams on the other side of the road on their way into the city ::).
Very true!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on December 05, 2019, 06:12:41 AM
Quote from: Jo498 on December 05, 2019, 01:27:17 AM
Not sure about the Britain-specifics, but the questions were not very nuanced and also loaded.

Of course. Take this one, for instance: "Immigration is good for Britain's economy". How are we supposed to answer this without knowing what kind of immigration we are talking about?

Or this one: "Capital punishment is the most appropriate for certain types of crimes." This is true in abstracto, but it doesn't follow that it should really be applied.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on December 05, 2019, 07:15:17 AM
Quote from: Florestan on December 05, 2019, 06:12:41 AM
Of course. Take this one, for instance: "Immigration is good for Britain's economy". How are we supposed to answer this without knowing what kind of immigration we are talking about?

Or this one: "Capital punishment is the most appropriate for certain types of crimes." This is true in abstracto, but it doesn't follow that it should really be applied.

Immigration was a big deal in the 2017 UK election, before that no politician dare mention it in fear of being called a racist. Oddly, I say that because it could be claimed that immigration was the driving force of Brexit, in the current election campaign it has hardly been mentioned, and when it has only half-heartedly.

I agree, capital punishment, although in some heinous crimes we wish it, is a non-starter - don't go there.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on December 05, 2019, 09:08:11 AM
What do you make of this, from the Tory manifesto

QuoteWe will ensure that
judicial review . . .  is not abused to conduct politics by
another means or to create needless
delays.

Is this the beginning of the state putting itself above the law?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 05, 2019, 09:39:28 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on December 05, 2019, 09:08:11 AM
What do you make of this, from the Tory manifesto

Is this the beginning of the state putting itself above the law?
IMO Yes. It's a catastrophe.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: North Star on December 06, 2019, 05:48:47 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on December 04, 2019, 11:07:48 AM
Amusing questionnaire here

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/survey3d.html

This is me


(https://i.imgur.com/IIPuJZG.png)
Your Economic position is 23° Right, your National position is 75° International, and your Social position is 79° Liberal.
I didn't know I was so conservative about money, apart from my own..
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on December 08, 2019, 09:56:23 AM
Yeah. :laugh:

(https://i.imgur.com/AR1MV74.jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on December 08, 2019, 11:04:53 AM
Okay, I took the test again. I took questions at their face value. In each question specific to UK I substituted Romania for it. In some questions unspecific to any nation, I answered with Romania's experience and interest in mind (the way I see it, of course). Some questions I answered in Strongly, some others in Mildy (both agreement and disagreement). No Neutral, no Don't know. Last but not least I answered in complete earnest.

My result is below.

For comparison, the way I would honestly describe myself is thus:

Economic: center-right
National: centrist
Social: conservative

The Economic and Social scales match. The big discrepancy in the National scale is probably a result of replacing UK's experience and interests with Romania's.

The test says that the tribe closest to [my] own attitudes is Kind Young Capitalists. Well, at 47 coming December 13th I'm not young anymore; but kind I am (in real life, I mean; here on GMG I have been unkind many times, but to my defense I plead always having remorses and many times apologizing); and if by "capitalist" they mean a staunch supporter of a free market restrained by rule of law and Christian morality, then I suppose I can live perfectly happy within that tribe.

EDIT: I see my Social score is identical to Jo's. I'm not surprised. I'm even glad.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on December 08, 2019, 02:51:44 PM
I took the test AFAI could do it, with a British perspective on things I often don't share here (in the Netherlands). I'm not surprised the results are rather different from how I would place myself, partly caused by a difference in political culture, partly by differences in definitions or key terms. In short, if I were free to identify myself in this impossible spectre, I would rather claim to be:

Economic:  centrist
National:    non-globalist, but feel strongly connected with normal people everywhere, also at home.
Social:       democrat (social-democrat or christian-democrat) rather than neo-liberal or 'conservative' (in the distorted, opposite meaning nowadays in common use among wealthy anarchists in the Anglo-Saxon world i.e.)

But my "official" result is  :D :

Economic:  70° Left   
National:    84° International   
Social:        9° Liberal
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on December 08, 2019, 03:02:58 PM
Quote from: Christo on December 08, 2019, 02:51:44 PM
I took the test AFAI could do it, with a British perspective on things I often don't share here (in the Netherlands). I'm not surprised the results are rather different from how I would place myself, partly caused by a difference in political culture, partly by differences in definitions or key terms. In short, if I were free to identify myself in this impossible spectre, I would rather claim to be:

Economic:  centrist
National:    non-globalist, but feel strongly connected with normal people everywhere, also at home.
Social:       democrat (social-democrat or christian-democrat) rather than neo-liberal or 'conservative' (in the distorted, opposite meaning nowadays in common use among wealthy anarchists in the Anglo-Saxon world i.e.)

But my "official" result is  :D :

Economic:  70° Left   
National:    84° International   
Social:        9° Liberal

Seems like both Orthodox (I) and Calvinist (you) Christianity are "very strongly globalist".  :laugh:


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on December 09, 2019, 03:59:43 AM
Quote from: Florestan on December 08, 2019, 03:02:58 PM
Seems like both Orthodox (I) and Calvinist (you) Christianity are "very strongly globalist".  :laugh:
Exactly, though I fear that Jewish & other normal members here suffer from a similar disability (something with your neighbour).  8)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on December 09, 2019, 06:02:13 AM
Your Economic position is 8° Left, your National position is 21° International, and your Social position is 55° Liberal.

You are economically moderate, mildly globalist, and strongly socially liberal.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 13, 2019, 12:12:42 PM
After Boris' major victory, Brexit is certain and the UK will leave the European Union by the 31st of January.
But the UK will enter into the limbo of a transition period till the end of 2020.
Tory voters have supported a Brexit without knowing its destiny.
The agonising dilemmas on extensions and possible relationships with the EU are going to return in full force.
This was only the end of the beginning.....

Chris Grey offers a rather grimm outlook:

The Brexit dystopia bequeathed by this election (https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/the-brexit-dystopia-bequeathed-by-this.html)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 13, 2019, 12:28:25 PM
Quote from: Que on December 13, 2019, 12:12:42 PM
After Boris' major victory, Brexit is certain and the UK will leave the European Union by the 31st of January.
But the UK will enter into the limbo of a transition period till the end of 2020.
Tory voters have supported a Brexit without knowing its destiny.
The agonising dilemmas on extensions and possible relationships with the EU are going to return in full force.
This was only the end of the beginning.....

Chris Grey offers a rather grimm outlook:

The Brexit dystopia bequeathed by this election (https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/the-brexit-dystopia-bequeathed-by-this.html)

Q

Thanks for posting this. The point about the 'fake bonhomie' concealing the underlying nastiness rings especially true I think.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: dissily Mordentroge on December 14, 2019, 02:45:09 PM
I'm at the stage of having being bored silly by the entire Brexit saga. It all leaves me puzzled though as to why so little public discussion has focused on the strangulating complexity and stupidity of European bureaucracy. Instance, many electronics manufactures no longer export to the Common Market due to major alterations required to their designs often pretending to be for 'public safety'. Not only do importers to the European Union suffer from Brussels strictures. Farmers are subject to pointless requirements such as being restricted for instance to only using an 'approved' range of seeds. The list could go on and on.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: J.A.W. on December 14, 2019, 04:44:00 PM
Quote from: dissily Mordentroge on December 14, 2019, 02:45:09 PM
I'm at the stage of having being bored silly by the entire Brexit saga. It all leaves me puzzled though as to why so little public discussion has focused on the strangulating complexity and stupidity of European bureaucracy. Instance, many electronics manufactures no longer export to the Common Market due to major alterations required to their designs often pretending to be for 'public safety'. Not only do importers to the European Union suffer from Brussels strictures. Farmers are subject to pointless requirements such as being restricted for instance to only using an 'approved' range of seeds. The list could go on and on.

Just a technical remark: the EU is a single market, not a common market - there is a difference. To quote a definition: a common market is usually referred to as the first stage towards the creation of a single market. It usually is built upon a free trade area with no tariffs for goods and relatively free movement of capital and of services, but not so advanced in reduction of non-tariff trade barriers.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: dissily Mordentroge on December 14, 2019, 06:15:47 PM
Quote from: J.A.W. on December 14, 2019, 04:44:00 PM
Just a technical remark: the EU is a single market, not a common market - there is a difference. To quote a definition: a common market is usually referred to as the first stage towards the creation of a single market. It usually is built upon a free trade area with no tariffs for goods and relatively free movement of capital and of services, but not so advanced in reduction of non-tariff trade barriers.
I'm sure you're correct but why is this entity so frequently referred to by the media as the Common Market?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on December 14, 2019, 11:49:11 PM
The common market was a predecessor structure in 70s and 80s Europe, wasn't it?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 14, 2019, 11:51:32 PM
Quote from: Jo498 on December 14, 2019, 11:49:11 PM
The common market was a predecessor structure in 70s and 80s Europe, wasn't it?

I seem to recall that the EEC, the forerunner of the EU, was often referred to as the common market.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: dissily Mordentroge on December 15, 2019, 12:13:19 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on December 14, 2019, 11:51:32 PM
I seem to recall that the EEC, the forerunner of the EU, was often referred to as the common market.
The term 'Common Market' sounds like some form of (utopian?) unregulated free enterprise. The European Union is so strangled with needless bureaucracy it's the opposite. The mere fact one can move money and people across national borders within the EU appears to have disguised the monster of central control .
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 15, 2019, 12:51:47 AM
Quote from: dissily Mordentroge on December 15, 2019, 12:13:19 AM
The term 'Common Market' sounds like some form of (utopian?) unregulated free enterprise. The European Union is so strangled with needless bureaucracy it's the opposite. The mere fact one can move money and people across national borders within the EU appears to have disguised the monster of central control .

We should, as I have mentioned before, have stayed in EFTA (European Free Trade Association) which I recall as being a less political organisation than the EEC/EU:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Free_Trade_Association
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: dissily Mordentroge on December 15, 2019, 01:14:58 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on December 15, 2019, 12:51:47 AM
We should, as I have mentioned before, have stayed in EFTA (European Free Trade Association) which I recall as being a less political organisation than the EEC/EU:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Free_Trade_Association
It may have made some things easier but you would still have had to jump multiple bureaucratic hoops to import English goods into Europe.
If the EFTA still exists I can't imagine how they could manage to work around the fools in Brussels anyway.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 15, 2019, 01:16:13 AM
Quote from: dissily Mordentroge on December 15, 2019, 12:13:19 AM
The term 'Common Market' sounds like some form of (utopian?) unregulated free enterprise. The European Union is so strangled with needless bureaucracy it's the opposite. The mere fact one can move money and people across national borders within the EU appears to have disguised the monster of central control .

The European Single Market (explanation here (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_market)) was actually an idea that the UK came up with, and had pushed for over decades...  It signifies a high level of economic integration that requires common rules. Common rules require common decisions. Common decisions require a centralised decision making process.

Important decisions are made by the member states in Brussels, but the notion the the whole of Europe is "centrally controlled" from Brussels by scary, power hungry bureaucrats is utter nonsense. The member states, particularly the larger one, are the ones in political control. I guess I do not need to spell out which country/ies I am talking about? It's not my own country, I can tell you...  ;)

Countries that do not want to join this  common, centralised decision making process but still want a high level of economical integration with the EU, end up as "rule takers" (Norway, Switzerland).  The alternative is a lower level of economic integration with the EU or none at all. This is the choice the UK will have to make.

Q

https://ec.europa.eu/growth/single-market/
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: dissily Mordentroge on December 15, 2019, 01:30:32 AM
Quote from: Que on December 15, 2019, 01:16:13 AM
The European Single Market (explanation here (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_market)) was actually an idea that the UK came up with, and had pushed for over decades...  It signifies a high level of economic integration that requires common rules. Common rules require common decisions. Common decisions require a centralised decision making process.

Important decisions are made by the member states in Brussels, but the notion the the whole of Europe is "centrally controlled" from Brussels by scary, power hungry bureaucrats is utter nonsense. The member states, particularly the larger one, are the ones in political control. I guess I do not need to spell out which country/ies I am talking about? It's not my own country, I can tell you...  ;)

Countries that do not want to join this  common, centralised decision making process but still want a high level of economical integration with the EU, end up as "rule takers" (Norway, Switzerland).  The alternative is a lower level of economic integration with the EU or none at all. This is the choice the UK will have to make.

Q

https://ec.europa.eu/growth/single-market/
There are common rules and there are common rules. Most of what Brussells has imposed strangles innovation and free trade. Instance, try and produce and sell heritage variety seeds in Europe.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on December 15, 2019, 01:35:35 AM
For me the core point of many modern countries (including the EU, although it is not a country) is that they seem to combine "worst of both worlds". It has both overbearing or stifling bureaucracy and regulations (the worst of "big government" and the surveillance options are "improved" every day) as well as the worst of "open borders", free trade and capitalism, e.g. Ireland, Luxembourg, even the Netherlands serving as tax havens, free mobility to exploit the cheapest workers from eastern and southeastern Europe (including brain drain of doctors and nurses that are now missing in Bulgaria and as the worst part trafficking girls from the Balkan states to German brothels). Similarly, it has the worst of corrupt, overpaid bureaucrats (often politicians not bearable anymore in their home countries because of scandals or general idiocy) and more lobbyists dictacting laws and rules that should benefit our corporate overlords than one could imagine.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: dissily Mordentroge on December 15, 2019, 01:42:19 AM
Quote from: Jo498 on December 15, 2019, 01:35:35 AM
For me the core point of many modern countries (including the EU, although it is not a country) is that they seem to combine "worst of both worlds". It has both overbearing or stifling bureaucracy and regulations (the worst of "big government" and the surveillance options are "improved" every day) as well as the worst of "open borders", free trade and capitalism, e.g. Ireland, Luxembourg, even the Netherlands serving as tax havens, free mobility to exploit the cheapest workers from eastern and southeastern Europe (including brain drain of doctors and nurses that are now missing in Bulgaria and as the worst part trafficking girls from the Balkan states to German brothels). Similarly, it has the worst of corrupt, overpaid bureaucrats (often politicians not bearable anymore in their home countries because of scandals or general idiocy) and more lobbyists dictacting laws and rules that should benefit our corporate overlords than one could imagine.
Totally agree but what is the solution?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Roasted Swan on December 15, 2019, 01:45:35 AM
Quote from: dissily Mordentroge on December 14, 2019, 02:45:09 PM
I'm at the stage of having being bored silly by the entire Brexit saga. It all leaves me puzzled though as to why so little public discussion has focused on the strangulating complexity and stupidity of European bureaucracy. Instance, many electronics manufactures no longer export to the Common Market due to major alterations required to their designs often pretending to be for 'public safety'. Not only do importers to the European Union suffer from Brussels strictures. Farmers are subject to pointless requirements such as being restricted for instance to only using an 'approved' range of seeds. The list could go on and on.

Those pesky farming regulations preventing us from importing lovely chlorinated chicken and hormone-injected meat.  Hurrah for Brexit and role on a very beneficial deal with the US............ or not..........
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: dissily Mordentroge on December 15, 2019, 01:48:00 AM
Quote from: Roasted Swan on December 15, 2019, 01:45:35 AM
Those pesky farming regulations preventing us from importing lovely chlorinated chicken and hormone-injected meat.  Hurrah for Brexit and role on a very beneficial deal with the US............ or not..........
Why import them when identical product made in England can be had?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on December 15, 2019, 02:33:39 AM
Quote from: Que on December 15, 2019, 01:16:13 AM
the notion the the whole of Europe is "centrally controlled" from Brussels by scary, power hungry bureaucrats is utter nonsense.

Yes,. The power of the Brussels bureaucracy and its influence on the politics of the member states is greatly exaggerated. Heck, if they were so powerful and in control of everything, then how come Viktor Orban is still the prime-minister of Hungary or Jaroslaw Kaczynsky the president of Poland? How come Brexit is around the corner?

Quote
The member states, particularly the larger one, are the ones in political control. I guess I do not need to spell out which country/ies I am talking about? It's not my own country, I can tell you...  ;)

Of course. It's not Brussels that calls the tune, it's Paris and Berlin.  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 15, 2019, 03:47:36 AM
I wonder if they'll get annoyed enough to stop using English ;).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 15, 2019, 10:31:26 AM
Quote from: 2dogs on December 15, 2019, 03:47:36 AM
I wonder if they'll get annoyed enough to stop using English ;).

English will still be an official EU language after Brexit.
It is one of the official languages of two member states: the Irish Republic and Malta.
Besides, after the EU expansion to the East the (unofficial) "lingua franca" of the EU switched from French to English.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on December 15, 2019, 01:17:25 PM
Quote from: Que on December 15, 2019, 10:31:26 AM
English will still be an official EU language after Brexit.
It is one of the official languages of two member states: the Irish Republic and Malta.
Besides, after the EU expansion to the East the (unofficial) "lingua franca" of the EU switched from French to English.

Q
AFAIK, it isn't. Ireland decided to support Gaelic, Malta opted for Malti. No member state besides the UK supporting English, it means the European Parliament, according to its own rules, cannot maintain English unless the rules are changed. I hope not.  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 15, 2019, 11:42:30 PM
Quote from: dissily Mordentroge on December 15, 2019, 01:14:58 AM
It may have made some things easier but you would still have had to jump multiple bureaucratic hoops to import English goods into Europe.
If the EFTA still exists I can't imagine how they could manage to work around the fools in Brussels anyway.
Thanks. It appears to still exist.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 15, 2019, 11:55:36 PM
Quote from: Christo on December 15, 2019, 01:17:25 PM
AFAIK, it isn't. Ireland decided to support Gaelic, Malta opted for Malti. No member state besides the UK supporting English, it means the European Parliament, according to its own rules, cannot maintain English unless the rules are changed. I hope not.  ;D

I stand corrected....  :)
Time for the Scots to join... Though they might opt for Scots or Scottish Gaelic?

Anyway, the European Commission already decided to keep English as a working language:

"The withdrawal of the United Kingdom will result in a limited reorientation of some functions within the administration, but the scope of activities will not change,"
"Translation and interpretation services in the English language will also remain unaffected."


Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 16, 2019, 06:04:29 AM
Quote from: Que on December 15, 2019, 11:55:36 PM
I stand corrected....  :)
Time for the Scots to join... Though they might opt for Scots or Scottish Gaelic?

Anyway, the European Commission already decided to keep English as a working language:

"The withdrawal of the United Kingdom will result in a limited reorientation of some functions within the administration, but the scope of activities will not change,"
"Translation and interpretation services in the English language will also remain unaffected."


Q

Well I hope they're going to pay England the royalties  ;).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on December 16, 2019, 06:58:44 AM
Quote from: Que on December 15, 2019, 11:55:36 PM
I stand corrected....  :)
Time for the Scots to join... Though they might opt for Scots or Scottish Gaelic?

Anyway, the European Commission already decided to keep English as a working language:

"The withdrawal of the United Kingdom will result in a limited reorientation of some functions within the administration, but the scope of activities will not change,"
"Translation and interpretation services in the English language will also remain unaffected."


Q

This discussion makes me happy to be leaving the EU, cheerio and good luck! It reminds me of a scene in Woody Allen's Bananas where after winning power the dictator of a banana republic in South America decrees the national language to be Swedish. Here

https://www.youtube.com/v/EV4N2dk0cMk
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 16, 2019, 07:36:04 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on December 16, 2019, 06:58:44 AM
This discussion makes me happy to be leaving the EU, cheerio and good luck! It reminds me of a scene in Woody Allen's Bananas where after winning power the dictator of a banana republic in South America decrees the national language to be Swedish. Here

https://www.youtube.com/v/EV4N2dk0cMk

Best of luck to you too!  :)

You might need it, though for the time being the UK will remain closely tied to the EU.
The UK has decided to leave the house but will stay the coming year in the garden shed, so to speak.  ;)

The European Commission has three working languages, the others being French and German.
You might find the situation absurd, but (currently) English is the most widely spoken (1st or 2nd) language in the EU.
And it is, as I mentioned before, an official language in two of the remaining member states. Blame colonialism,  if you will...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_the_European_Union

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on December 16, 2019, 08:39:06 AM
Quote from: Que on December 16, 2019, 07:36:04 AM
The European Commission has three working languages, the others being French and German.

None of which is going to replace English as the lingua franca of the whole world, not only Europe.

Even during the Napoleonic Wars the Prussian and Russian aristocracy spoke French without any remorse or second thoughts; to "punish" UK by renouncing English as on official EU language would be the top of folly.  :D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: ritter on December 16, 2019, 12:50:46 PM
Quote from: Florestan on December 16, 2019, 08:39:06 AM
...
Even during the Napoleonic Wars the Prussian and Russian aristocracy spoke French without any remorse or second thoughts
Oh les beaux jours.....  :D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 16, 2019, 11:41:22 PM
Quote from: Que on December 16, 2019, 07:36:04 AM
Best of luck to you too!  :)

You might need it, though for the time being the UK will remain closely tied to the EU.
The UK has decided to leave the house but will stay the coming year in the garden shed, so to speak.  ;)

The European Commission has three working languages, the others being French and German.
You might find the situation absurd, but (currently) English is the most widely spoken (1st or 2nd) language in the EU.
And it is, as I mentioned before, an official language in two of the remaining member states. Blame colonialism,  if you will...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_the_European_Union

Q
I like your garden shed analogy.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on December 17, 2019, 12:28:39 AM
Quote from: ritter on December 16, 2019, 12:50:46 PM
Oh les beaux jours.....  :D

Précisément, cher ami!  :)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on December 17, 2019, 12:44:06 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on December 16, 2019, 11:41:22 PM
I like your garden shed analogy.

Jeremy would feel more at home then Boris.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 17, 2019, 01:31:09 AM
Quote from: Irons on December 17, 2019, 12:44:06 AM
Jeremy would feel more at home then Boris.
True or possibly David Cameron, in a very posh designer shed.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on December 17, 2019, 02:30:14 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on December 17, 2019, 01:31:09 AM
True or possibly David Cameron, in a very posh designer shed.

Is he still alive? He must be very proud of the mess he singlehandedly created.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 17, 2019, 06:26:45 AM
Quote from: Florestan on December 17, 2019, 02:30:14 AM
Is he still alive? He must be very proud of the mess he singlehandedly created.
Totally agree with you.
Here he is partying recently:
(//)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on December 17, 2019, 07:28:23 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on December 17, 2019, 06:26:45 AM
Totally agree with you.
Here he is partying recently:
(//)

He is wearing jeans so one of us now.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on December 17, 2019, 07:34:01 AM
Quote from: Irons on December 17, 2019, 07:28:23 AM
He is wearing jeans so one of us now.

Does a photo exist where Johnson is not wearing a crumpled suit, white far from pristine shirt and skew whiff tie?

Edit: Found one!

(https://www.varsity.co.uk/images/derived/article-objects/md5-4173b92b7207cae33ed72d5e3d8c4b38/38277.jpeg)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Papy Oli on December 17, 2019, 08:05:19 AM
Quote from: Irons on December 17, 2019, 07:34:01 AM
Does a photo exist where Johnson is not wearing a crumpled suit, white far from pristine shirt and skew whiff tie?

Edit: Found one!

(https://www.varsity.co.uk/images/derived/article-objects/md5-4173b92b7207cae33ed72d5e3d8c4b38/38277.jpeg)

"....so err... you are ...humph... telling me that... err... you scientists have... err ... invented ... hmmm ...  thinga-me-bob... err... put on the err.... doo-dah.... that will stop me hmm... having all those illegitimate oinks... i mean... grumph.... children... oh i say... hummm...spiffing.... ??? "
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 17, 2019, 10:44:51 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on December 17, 2019, 01:31:09 AM
True or possibly David Cameron, in a very posh designer shed.

He bought this to write his memoirs in, estimated to go for around £25k.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 17, 2019, 11:39:36 PM
Quote from: 2dogs on December 17, 2019, 10:44:51 AM
He bought this to write his memoirs in, estimated to go for around £25k.
I could use one for storing my CDs.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on December 17, 2019, 11:52:18 PM
Quote from: Papy Oli on December 17, 2019, 08:05:19 AM
"....so err... you are ...humph... telling me that... err... you scientists have... err ... invented ... hmmm ...  thinga-me-bob... err... put on the err.... doo-dah.... that will stop me hmm... having all those illegitimate oinks... i mean... grumph.... children... oh i say... hummm...spiffing.... ??? "

Or he could be saying "what happens when I touch these two wires together?" the scientists reply "not a lot, Mr Johnson. Go ahead!".
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 18, 2019, 12:37:07 AM
Quote from: Irons on December 17, 2019, 11:52:18 PM
Or he could be saying "what happens when I touch these two wires together?" the scientists reply "not a lot, Mr Johnson. Go ahead!".
Yes, great idea!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 21, 2019, 01:17:43 AM
The game is on!

Brexit: MPs pass withdrawal agreement bill by 124 majority (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/20/brexit-pm-asks-britons-to-move-on-as-mps-debate-withdrawal-bill)

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/1a11f591f14c701d283693f2b6fa6942000e0a5d/0_0_4822_2980/master/4822.jpg?width=940&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=7126cddf6c2b54a9f86f4741b50d8945)

Note that in the bill any extension of the transition period has been ruled out: it determines that the transition period will end on the 31st of December 2020, at the stroke of midnight.

Now, something has not changed since the referendum was held, article 50 was invoked and two withdrawal agreements were negotiated by Theresa May and Boris Johnson respectively: nobody knows Brexit is going to look like and what the future relationship with the EU will be...  ::)

The answer is simple: with the new negation powers the bill gives him, BoJo will decide what Brexit will look like.

Ruling out any extension of the transition period will however not only undermine the UK's negotiation position, it will also limit the possible options.
Given the strict timelimit, I think it is either going to be an established "of the shelf" option resulting in a soft Brexit, or a no deal situation. The free trade agreement with Canada took 7 years to negotiate, so a similar tailormade treaty is not an option.

It seems that the EU will aim at a piecemeal approach, by negotiating separate deals for the most urgent matters (for the EU),  like security cooperation, fisheries and citizens' rights, and extending the transition phase for the rest. This could be done by new agreements, avoiding the scope of the UK exit bill. Bureaucrats in Brussels get a bad wrap around here, but they are actually pretty clever...

Despite BoJo's elections slogan, Brexit will not be "done" end of January but will actually continue for many years to come....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 29, 2019, 11:54:39 PM
In relation to our own recent discussions:

Will Brexit spell the end of English as an official EU language? (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/27/brexit-end-english-official-eu-language-uk-brussels)

Conclusion: due to history (colonialism on a global scale) English had transcended its origins as a language of the English and has become a global - and European - lingua franca, just as French and Latin before it.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on December 30, 2019, 07:40:46 AM
Quote from: Que on December 21, 2019, 01:17:43 AM
The game is on!

Brexit: MPs pass withdrawal agreement bill by 124 majority (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/20/brexit-pm-asks-britons-to-move-on-as-mps-debate-withdrawal-bill)

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/1a11f591f14c701d283693f2b6fa6942000e0a5d/0_0_4822_2980/master/4822.jpg?width=940&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=7126cddf6c2b54a9f86f4741b50d8945)

Note that in the bill any extension of the transition period has been ruled out: it determines that the transition period will end on the 31st of December 2020, at the stroke of midnight.

Now, something has not changed since the referendum was held, article 50 was invoked and two withdrawal agreements were negotiated by Theresa May and Boris Johnson respectively: nobody knows Brexit is going to look like and what the future relationship with the EU will be...  ::)

The answer is simple: with the new negation powers the bill gives him, BoJo will decide what Brexit will look like.

Ruling out any extension of the transition period will however not only undermine the UK's negotiation position, it will also limit the possible options.
Given the strict timelimit, I think it is either going to be an established "of the shelf" option resulting in a soft Brexit, or a no deal situation. The free trade agreement with Canada took 7 years to negotiate, so a similar tailormade treaty is not an option.

It seems that the EU will aim at a piecemeal approach, by negotiating separate deals for the most urgent matters (for the EU),  like security cooperation, fisheries and citizens' rights, and extending the transition phase for the rest. This could be done by new agreements, avoiding the scope of the UK exit bill. Bureaucrats in Brussels get a bad wrap around here, but they are actually pretty clever...

Despite BoJo's elections slogan, Brexit will not be "done" end of January but will actually continue for many years to come....

Q

The game is on. More like gunfight at OK Corral - who blinks first loses. I have no idea of the outcome but I will raise one point in your post. The negotiations of a trade deal between Canada and the EU and that of the UK are quite different and cannot be compared for the simple reason that the UK has been a member of the EU since 1973 so laws and regulations are aligned between the two. The "level playing field" is already in place. Canada, on the other hand is starting from scratch. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 30, 2019, 07:59:14 AM
Quote from: Irons on December 30, 2019, 07:40:46 AM
The game is on. More like gunfight at OK Corral - who blinks first loses. I have no idea of the outcome but I will raise one point in your post. The negotiations of a trade deal between Canada and the EU and that of the UK are quite different and cannot be compared for the simple reason that the UK has been a member of the EU since 1973 so laws and regulations are aligned between the two. The "level playing field" is already in place. Canada, on the other hand is starting from scratch.

I fully agree with your point that the level playing field, or regulatory alignment, is already in place.
This would be very helpful in all scenarios in which the UK want to stay closely aligned with the EU. In those cases the UK is already set to go and any deal to such effect -provided it is an "off shelve" set up - could be done relatively quickly.
Still an option, I wouldn't rule out that BoJo changes his mind.

However, difficulties arise when the UK does not want to commit to a close alignment. This would be the case in a Canada scenario. In that case a set a economic mutual "level playing field" is not guaranteed, which will set off difficult and lengthy "quid pro quo" negotiations between the UK and the EU.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 30, 2019, 11:15:02 AM
Quote from: Que on December 29, 2019, 11:54:39 PM
In relation to our own recent discussions:

Will Brexit spell the end of English as an official EU language? (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/27/brexit-end-english-official-eu-language-uk-brussels)

Conclusion: due to history (colonialism on a global scale) English had transcended its origins as a language of the English and has become a global - and European - lingua franca, just as French and Latin before it.

Q

Saying English has become a French Language sounds so much more impressive if you say it in Latin ::).

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on December 31, 2019, 12:11:34 AM
Quote from: Que on December 30, 2019, 07:59:14 AM
I fully agree with your point that the level playing field, or regulatory alignment, is already in place.
This would be very helpful in all scenarios in which the UK want to stay closely aligned with the EU. In those cases the UK is already set to go and any deal to such effect -provided it is an "off shelve" set up - could be done relatively quickly.
Still an option, I wouldn't rule out that BoJo changes his mind.

However, difficulties arise when the UK does not want to commit to a close alignment. This would be the case in a Canada scenario. In that case a set a economic mutual "level playing field" is not guaranteed, which will set off difficult and lengthy "quid pro quo" negotiations between the UK and the EU.

Q

Yes, and I am not saying for a moment that negotiations are going to be easy or indeed successful. There is a strong held view in the British camp that negotiations over anything with the EU are only concluded at the 11th hour. It makes little difference if one month, one year or seven years the EU always stretch the timeframe to conclude discussions at the last minute.

I think sabre-rattling is unhelpful at this juncture and surprised to read comments made by Phil Hogan, the trade chief for the EU made yesterday which are quite provocative. Boris seems to get on well with the other leaders in Europe, there is warmth shown by both sides. Not so from the EU itself.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 31, 2019, 02:10:12 AM
I agree that Hogan's intervention (https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/johnson-will-abandon-pledge-on-brexit-transition-period-hogan-1.4126850) isn't helpful. For some reason he thought that putting pressure on Johnson was necessary.

Yet, I honestly think a year is not nearly enough to negotiate a tailored free trade agreement, which necessitates going trough literally every aspect of economic bilateral relations. It's not a political problem, but a practical limitation.

So, either the negotiations are going to be extended, or BoJo aims for a no deal scenario (which I find unlikely),  or an "off the shelf" close(r) relationship with the EU is chosen. The last option makes the most sense economically and is best for his political survival, though it would create a rift with hard Brexiteers.

The different options haven't changed since the days of Theresa May, just the parliamentary arithmetics.

I'll be interested in events unfolding - 1st of July is the deadline for the decision on an extension.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 24, 2020, 11:40:08 AM
The withdrawal agreement has been signed:

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/46237ce16777474b92179627060b54f3d3d9a2db/0_0_3500_2100/master/3500.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=f32375f89b097161966f6c4c09a90e7b)

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/5d75d25b7dd33c3bb223d46c39200fea4acc79c5/0_111_5178_3107/master/5178.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=5565e82ddc9002b12024658ac857f327)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on January 25, 2020, 12:56:26 AM
Quote from: Que on January 24, 2020, 11:40:08 AM
The withdrawal agreement has been signed:

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/46237ce16777474b92179627060b54f3d3d9a2db/0_0_3500_2100/master/3500.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=f32375f89b097161966f6c4c09a90e7b)

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/5d75d25b7dd33c3bb223d46c39200fea4acc79c5/0_111_5178_3107/master/5178.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=5565e82ddc9002b12024658ac857f327)

Q

No bong from Big Ben though. :(

Essay in today's Daily Mail - yes I know - by Alexander Von Schoenburg, editor-at-large (?) at Bild that Germans are jealous of Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 08, 2020, 12:40:41 AM
The 1st week after Britain left the EU.. ..


Remarkably, Boris Johnson has done the same thing as his predecessor: he has given a big speech before the negotiations even started, in which he has painted himself some "red lines":

He is aiming for a Canadian-style free trade deal or an "Australian deal", which is actually NO deal at all but trading on WTO terms.

Brexit: Boris Johnson says 'no need' for UK to follow EU rules on trade (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51351914)

Pound falls as Boris Johnson takes tough line on EU trade deal (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/03/pound-falls-as-boris-johnson-takes-tough-line-on-eu-trade-deal-brexit)

Boris Johnson warns Brussels he would rather walk away without a trade deal than make Britain follow EU rules (https://www.businessinsider.nl/johnson-uk-will-not-follow-eu-rules-in-brexit-trade-deal-2020-2?international=true&r=US)

Economists and the business community will be alarmed, since the economic ties between the UK and the EU are not even remotely similar to those between the EU and Canada or Australia. Economic relations with the EU are much more significant in size for the UK economy than for Canada (export 45% vs 8%, import 53% vs 10,5%). Also the ties, as is the UK economy, are dominated by services instead of goods. A free flow of services requires a much closer and more complex trading relationship.

It seems Boris doesn't want to follow any EU rules.... just for the sake of it.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 08, 2020, 03:23:16 AM
Perhaps Boris should read up on the issue in the Wall Street Journal...

No, Brexit Won't Free the U.K. From EU Regulations (https://www.wsj.com/articles/no-brexit-wont-free-the-u-k-from-eu-regulations-11581087277)

British industries from aerospace to telecommunications still need to follow Brussels's rules to retain access to vital European markets

The U.K. is finally on its way toward full independence from Brussels—or so British leaders promise. On Jan. 31, the U.K. formally left the European Union with the goal of reinstating its "regulatory sovereignty" and unshackling the country from the EU's endless bureaucracy. "There will not be alignment" on regulations with the EU after Brexit, U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid recently declared. "We will not be a rule taker." But that's easier said than done. In reality, no political choice available to the U.K. would liberate it from the EU's regulatory reach. Britain's push for regulatory freedom is simply not how global markets work in the 21st century.

EU consumers currently buy almost half of what the U.K. exports, and the EU is a top export destination for many British industries—including aerospace, automobiles, chemicals, financial services, food manufacturing, pharmaceuticals and telecommunications. So all of these industries will need to remain closely aligned with EU regulations to preserve their access to the European market, regardless of U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson's promises to the contrary.

Global firms often voluntarily standardize their operations around EU regulations.
The EU doesn't even need the British government to commit to a regulatory alignment as part of any future trade deal between Brussels and London. All the EU needs is to demand that companies doing business in the union abide by its rules. Global companies often voluntarily standardize their operations around the most stringent regulatory standard out there—frequently the EU standard—since complying with that standard will typically ensure access to all markets. Economies of scale and other benefits of uniform production make it unlikely that these firms would set up two production lines, one for the EU and another for the rest of the world.

Even multinationals and U.S. companies that benefit from a much larger and less regulated home market often adjust their global business practices to EU rules. Facebook, Google and Microsoft have global privacy policies written with Brussels in mind. Twitter and YouTube have echoed the EU's definition of hate speech globally, pledging to delete material on their platforms that the EU would deem unacceptable even when such speech might be protected by the U.S. First Amendment. Revlon Inc.declared back in 2005 that all of its products complied with EU regulations. And CHS Inc., the giant U.S. farm cooperative, has refused to sell seeds or buy grain from U.S. farmers if they contain traits of genetically modified organisms banned in the EU. The largest U.K.-based firms— Barclays PLC,GlaxoSmithKline, Royal Dutch Shell PLC, UnileverPLC and Vodafone Group PLC—will have little choice but to follow suit.

Call it the Brussels effect. British companies understand that this dynamic allows the EU to wield a passive yet highly penetrating form of power to unilaterally transform global markets and shape corporate behavior. The Confederation of British Industry, which says that it speaks for 190,000 businesses in the U.K., has called for regulatory alignment, arguing that it would make many British companies more competitive. This includes the U.K.'s important aerospace industry, which had a 47% export share to the EU in 2016. Tony Wood, the president of that industry's trade body, says that regulatory alignment with the EU is "in our national interest."

Mr. Johnson's government will also wind up continuing to emulate many of the EU rules it most despised, including those on data privacy. Pro-Brexit voices have long criticized the EU's data-protection rules for impeding innovation and undermining British firms' competitiveness. But the EU's General Data Protection Regulation will set the terms moving forward, or data flows between the U.K. and the EU will halt. Three-quarters of the U.K.'s data flows are with EU countries, giving the British government no option but to pursue regulatory alignment to meet the EU's standards. U.K. Information Commissioner Elizabeth Denham has admitted as much, saying that "Brexit should not mean Brexit when it comes to standards of data protection." The financial-services industry is similarly dependent on Brussels, with nearly half of the U.K.'s financial-service exports going to the EU.

Is there no way for Mr. Johnson's government to avoid EU regulations and make good on its promises? Making new trade deals across the world could help to mitigate the Brussels effect. If U.K. companies can find enough export opportunities elsewhere to replace EU business, their dependence on access to the EU market will decline.

But this will take time, and any new British trade deals won't easily replace the importance of the EU as a destination of U.K. exports. Geographic proximity and low transportation costs still dictate much of the flow of global trade.

More than half of British car exports, for example, are destined for the EU and thus must continue to meet Brussels's standards even in a post-Brexit world. Moreover, the U.K. automobile industry has repeatedly stressed the high costs of producing different varieties for different markets. Mike Hawes, the chief executive of the U.K. Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, warns that having to meet divergent regulations would "add billions" to the industry's manufacturing costs. The U.K.'s domestic market for cars is six times smaller than the EU automotive market, and much of the remaining exports are destined for countries such as South Korea, which have trade deals with the EU that mirror Brussels's regulatory requirements. All of this leaves U.K. manufacturers with strong incentives to follow EU regulations across the board.

Ironically, Brexit will probably strengthen many EU regulations.
Ironically, Brexit will probably strengthen many EU regulations, leaving U.K. companies to face an even more heavily regulated marketplace in the coming years. London will no longer have a say over EU regulations, removing an important pro-market voice from the table where those regulations are written. This will open the door for more interventionist regulatory standards advocated by France, Germany and others. These EU heavyweights—now even more dominant—are already pushing to create European champions that can withstand international competition.

With Brexit, the U.K. has ceded its role as a vital rule-maker within the EU and become a voiceless rule-taker in an even more tightly regulated Europe. No regulatory freedom awaits the U.K. in the age of Brexit. Instead, the U.K. government is about to learn the hard way that Brexit is easier to deliver as a slogan than as a viable policy.

Ms. Bradford is a professor at Columbia Law School and the author of "The Brussels Effect: How the European Union Rules the World," which will be published Feb. 20 by Oxford University Press.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on February 08, 2020, 09:31:42 AM
Quote from: Que on February 08, 2020, 12:40:41 AM
The 1st week after Britain left the EU.. ..


Remarkably, Boris Johnson has done the same thing as his predecessor: he has given a big speech before the negotiations even started, in which he has painted himself some "red lines":

He is aiming for a Canadian-style free trade deal or an "Australian deal", which is actually NO deal at all but trading on WTO terms.

Brexit: Boris Johnson says 'no need' for UK to follow EU rules on trade (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51351914)

Pound falls as Boris Johnson takes tough line on EU trade deal (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/03/pound-falls-as-boris-johnson-takes-tough-line-on-eu-trade-deal-brexit)

Boris Johnson warns Brussels he would rather walk away without a trade deal than make Britain follow EU rules (https://www.businessinsider.nl/johnson-uk-will-not-follow-eu-rules-in-brexit-trade-deal-2020-2?international=true&r=US)

Economists and the business community will be alarmed, since the economic ties between the UK and the EU are not even remotely similar to those between the EU and Canada or Australia. Economic relations with the EU are much more significant in size for the UK economy than for Canada (export 45% vs 8%, import 53% vs 10,5%). Also the ties, as is the UK economy, are dominated by services instead of goods. A free flow of services requires a much closer and more complex trading relationship.

It seems Boris doesn't want to follow any EU rules.... just for the sake of it.

Q

Trump "apoplectic" at UK signing a deal with Huawei for 5G. So we are off to hell in a handcart!

Not factually correct that the £pound falls. In fact worth up to 22% more thanks to "Brexit bounce".

Edit: Sterling is 4% stronger then the euro compared to a year ago.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 08, 2020, 10:57:27 AM
Quote from: Irons on February 08, 2020, 09:31:42 AM
Trump "apoplectic" at UK signing a deal with Huawei for 5G. So we are off to hell in a handcart!

Not factually correct that the £pound falls. In fact worth up to 22% more thanks to "Brexit bounce".

Edit: Sterling is 4% stronger then the euro compared to a year ago.

The pound falling or rising was not the point of linking the article. Apart from that, a comparison with a year ago doesn't tell you much.... The uncertainties and the hopes today are much the same as then. The UK has left the EU, but is still in the same economic relationship with the EU as before.

This is the more telling chart:

(https://www.chartoasis.com/charts/gbp-eur-5-years-chart-mobile.png)

Keep in mind the referendum was in June 2016.
And the modest dip was caused by the uncertainty that followed (and preceeded) the referendum, not by the actual rupture of the close economic relationship with the EU. That is yet to come, or not...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 09, 2020, 04:28:57 AM
Quote from: Irons on February 09, 2020, 04:22:30 AM
But I was not linking to the article but to the comment - Pound falls as Boris takes a tough line on EU trade deal. The pound may fall, and indeed did so recently due to external factors and leaving the EU may hit sterling hard, who knows? That does not alter the fact that the statement is inaccurate so should be called so.

I didn't check what the pound did on last Monday right after Johnson's speech, but any clear connection seems definitely not certain and in any case shortlived!

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on February 09, 2020, 04:36:01 AM
Quote from: Que on February 09, 2020, 04:28:57 AM
I didn't check what the pound did on last Monday right after Johnson's speech, but any clear connection seems definitely not certain and in any case shortlived!

Q

So it may. I do not disagree with much you say but lets not fall in the Trump "fake news" trap.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 09, 2020, 04:48:33 AM
Quote from: Irons on February 09, 2020, 04:36:01 AM
So it may. I do not disagree with much you say but lets not fall in the Trump "fake news" trap.

If it was "fake news", it's on The Guardian. Which seems a respectable news source.
I mentioned the article mainly because it is also about concerns in the business community.

I'm curious with which of my statements you don't agree with. I try to keep them as factual as possible.
Or you don't agree with my take on Brexit in general?

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on February 09, 2020, 05:15:54 AM
Just a polite request in between: can you please keep that Ciara Storm with you, over there? Brexit means Brexit.  ???
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on February 09, 2020, 06:11:38 AM
Quote from: Que on February 09, 2020, 04:48:33 AM
If it was "fake news", it's on The Guardian. Which seems a respectable news source.
I mentioned the article mainly because it is also about concerns in the business community.

I'm curious with which of my statements you don't agree with. I try to keep them as factual as possible.
Or you don't agree with my take on Brexit in general?

Q

I do not read the Guardian. Brexit is a most complex issue. I voted remain, but fully understand the wish to leave. I do believe the EU has to take some responsibility for Brexit, although why should they make concessions to make for a positive referendum result? After all the EU didn't call it, the UK did. As I say complex. Not in my lifetime, but I think in the not too distant future it is possible that the UK will apply to re-join. Politics are in constant flux and eventually the Labour Party will get their house in order and as the Brexit referendum was close, I can foresee the prospect of applying to re-join a means of obtaining power, especially if Brexit doesn't work out well. If the EU would want the UK back is another matter entirely. 

I do not disagree with much of what you say but most of your argument is balanced from an anti-Brexit prospective. I'm more of sitting on the fence probably due to residing in the UK there is no alternative. Being a remoaner is pointless.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 09, 2020, 08:35:33 AM
Quote from: Irons on February 09, 2020, 06:11:38 AM
I do not read the Guardian. Brexit is a most complex issue. I voted remain, but fully understand the wish to leave. I do believe the EU has to take some responsibility for Brexit, although why should they make concessions to make for a positive referendum result? After all the EU didn't call it, the UK did. As I say complex. Not in my lifetime, but I think in the not too distant future it is possible that the UK will apply to re-join. Politics are in constant flux and eventually the Labour Party will get their house in order and as the Brexit referendum was close, I can foresee the prospect of applying to re-join a means of obtaining power, especially if Brexit doesn't work out well. If the EU would want the UK back is another matter entirely. 

I do not disagree with much of what you say but most of your argument is balanced from an anti-Brexit prospective. I'm more of sitting on the fence probably due to residing in the UK there is no alternative. Being a remoaner is pointless.

Since I'm not living in the UK and I'm not a British national, I'm per definition an outsider in the debate between Brexiteers and remainers (or I guess the later group should be rebranded 'rejoiners').
But as a fellow European and supporter of European integration, I am affected by the UK's decision to leave.

Countries and peoples make the decisions they make, and that is to be respected. In this regard the UK is truly the master of its own fate.
But IMO the decision wasn't rational in the sense that Brexit will not solve domestic problems that were not caused by EU membership and that leaving the EU will not offer the utopian economic opportunities that were promised.
The UK essentially voted for a return to the economic and political independence of a super power. But unfortunately the UK is no super power... anymore.... and it will soon hit the brick wall of that reality.
Only time will tell how that pans out....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on February 09, 2020, 10:09:08 AM
Quote from: Que on February 08, 2020, 03:23:16 AM
Perhaps Boris should read up on the issue in the Wall Street Journal...

Very interesting, thanks for posting.

Quote from: Que on February 09, 2020, 08:35:33 AM
But IMO the decision wasn't rational in the sense that Brexit will not solve domestic problems that were not caused by EU membership and that leaving the EU will not offer the utopian economic opportunities that were promised.

For me that sums up the absurdity of the situation. The EU was a convenient scapegoat to vent much broader frustrations on when the Brexit vote happened, and stoked no doubt by years of mindless headlines and prepping in tabloids and broadsheets, in many people's minds the UK became David against the EU Goliath, and once that happened any chance of it being a rational debate seemed to evaporate. People are naturally tribal, and the easiest thing in the world is to point a finger and demonise. Anyway the point being that barely any of the autonomy/freedom etc people sought when voting to leave was really achievable. All they've done is knocked over a giant strawman, who was never the cause of all their woes in the first place, and scratched a primal itch that will bring only short-lived satisfaction.

All in imo of course, and I'd add that I genuinely hope I'm wrong, I hope Brexit works out, despite all the nefarious shenanigans that accompanied it.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on February 09, 2020, 10:33:36 AM
Quote from: Que on February 09, 2020, 08:35:33 AM
Since I'm not living in the UK and I'm not a British national, I'm per definition an outsider in the debate between Brexiteers and remainers (or I guess the later group should be rebranded 'rejoiners').
But as a fellow European and supporter of European integration, I am affected by the UK's decision to leave.

Countries and peoples make the decisions they make, and that is to be respected. In this regard the UK is truly the master of its own fate.
But IMO the decision wasn't rational in the sense that Brexit will not solve domestic problems that were not caused by EU membership and that leaving the EU will not offer the utopian economic opportunities that were promised.
The UK essentially voted for a return to the economic and political independence of a super power. But unfortunately the UK is no super power... anymore.... and it will soon hit the brick wall of that reality.
Only time will tell how that pans out....

Q

There are so many factors that led to Brexit, and some have have nothing to do with The EU. I do not think economics were the driving force or lust for power. I agree our power on the world stage is diminished, this is why the majority of politicians in the UK were against - they enjoy being at the top table. The population on the other hand are not so bothered about that. The power base would further hit by Scottish independence but the general feeling is if it happens, it happens.
It is hardly mentioned but I think being a small island off the mainland Europe was a factor, eternal outsiders. Immigration is up there although that became less important with the passing of time. Most of all I think it a protest vote, people were fed up, and idiotically Cameron didn't understand that. The strangest aspect is a protest vote which resulted in an incumbent Government retaining power. :-\
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on February 10, 2020, 03:42:52 AM
Quote from: Christo on February 09, 2020, 05:15:54 AM
Just a polite request in between: can you please keep that Ciara Storm with you, over there? Brexit means Brexit.  ???
:)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 16, 2020, 05:26:19 AM
(Guardian)
No 10 claims coronavirus crisis strengthens need for UK to be free of EU regulation after 2020
Andrew Sparrow

At the Downing Street lobby briefing the prime minister's spokesman also significantly toughened the UK's stance on Brexit. The government has always ruled out requesting an extension to the post-Brexit transition period, and it has stuck to that position even though coronavirus has made it increasingly hard to see how the UK and the EU will be able to conclude a trade deal by the end of this year when crisis management is a full-time job and officials cannot even meet in the same room to carry out the negotiation.

But, as James Forsyth, the Spectator's political editor reports this week, there has been speculation that the EU itself could request an extension of the transition. One theory was that it would be hard for the UK to refuse.

But the UK would refuse such a request, the spokesman said this morning. He told journalists:
"We will not ask to extend the transition. And, if the EU asks, we will say no. Extending the transition would simply prolong the negotiations, prolong business uncertainty, and delay the moment of control of our borders. It would also keep us bound by EU legislation at a point when we need legislative and economic flexibility to manage the UK response to the coronavirus pandemic."

What is also interesting about this comment is that it shows No 10 is now arguing that coronavirus strengthens the case for the UK to break away from regulatory alignment with the EU. Opposing regulatory alignment could end up with the UK having to negotiate with the EU on WTO terms (what used to be called a "no-deal" Brexit), although of course the government says it wants a Canada-style trade deal.

Q

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on April 21, 2020, 11:47:21 PM
Quote from: Que on April 16, 2020, 05:26:19 AM
(Guardian)
No 10 claims coronavirus crisis strengthens need for UK to be free of EU regulation after 2020
Andrew Sparrow

At the Downing Street lobby briefing the prime minister's spokesman also significantly toughened the UK's stance on Brexit. The government has always ruled out requesting an extension to the post-Brexit transition period, and it has stuck to that position even though coronavirus has made it increasingly hard to see how the UK and the EU will be able to conclude a trade deal by the end of this year when crisis management is a full-time job and officials cannot even meet in the same room to carry out the negotiation.

But, as James Forsyth, the Spectator's political editor reports this week, there has been speculation that the EU itself could request an extension of the transition. One theory was that it would be hard for the UK to refuse.

But the UK would refuse such a request, the spokesman said this morning. He told journalists:
"We will not ask to extend the transition. And, if the EU asks, we will say no. Extending the transition would simply prolong the negotiations, prolong business uncertainty, and delay the moment of control of our borders. It would also keep us bound by EU legislation at a point when we need legislative and economic flexibility to manage the UK response to the coronavirus pandemic."

What is also interesting about this comment is that it shows No 10 is now arguing that coronavirus strengthens the case for the UK to break away from regulatory alignment with the EU. Opposing regulatory alignment could end up with the UK having to negotiate with the EU on WTO terms (what used to be called a "no-deal" Brexit), although of course the government says it wants a Canada-style trade deal.

Q

I am beginning to believe that for the UK Government Brexit is not for any practical issue, including the coronavirus pandemic - I wrongly assumed that transition talks would be put on hold, being surprised and a little shocked the UK planned to carry on regardless and keep to the original timetable. Brexit defines this Government and for good or ill is driven by political dogma.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on April 22, 2020, 08:35:03 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/eu-turns-up-pressure-on-matt-hancock-over-covid-19-ppe-scheme


EU turns up pressure on Matt Hancock over Covid-19 PPE scheme


QuoteAfter a day of confusion in Westminster over the UK's lack of involvement in the EU's joint procurement of equipment, a spokesman for the commission appeared to bolster the claim that ministers had taken a "political decision" to opt out.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/22/eu-procurement-johnson-priorities-coronavirus-pandemic

What the EU procurement furore tells us about Johnson's real priorities

Quote. . .  It is a reminder that, in this government, power still rests with those who believe the overriding objective of this administration, even now, is a hard Brexit. It implies that in Johnson's government the fight against Covid-19 is, of course, massively important – but only up to a point.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 23, 2020, 07:38:42 AM
Quote from: Irons on April 21, 2020, 11:47:21 PM
I am beginning to believe that for the UK Government Brexit is not for any practical issue, including the coronavirus pandemic - I wrongly assumed that transition talks would be put on hold, being surprised and a little shocked the UK planned to carry on regardless and keep to the original timetable. Brexit defines this Government and for good or ill is driven by political dogma.

What I find striking is that the Brexit narrative has kept shifting towards a more and more radical option.
During the referendum the objective was to distance the UK from the EU political project, but to stay in the internal market.
Under May it was to leave the internal market, but to keep close economic ties.
Johnson took over and aimed at a Canadian-style bilateral trade deal.
Now it seems the UK government has lost interest in any negotiations on any agreement whatsoever.

So, the endgame is the severing of all economic ties with the EU except trading under the WTO-rules?
This would actually set the clock on economic ties back to the situation before 1954, when the UK and the then European Communities entered into a mutual association agreement.

Baffling, simply baffling....  ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on April 24, 2020, 07:15:25 AM
Quote from: Que on April 23, 2020, 07:38:42 AM
What I find striking is that the Brexit narrative has kept shifting towards a more and more radical option.
During the referendum the objective was to distance the UK from the EU political project, but to stay in the internal market.
Under May it was to leave the internal market, but to keep close economic ties.
Johnson took over and aimed at a Canadian-style bilateral trade deal.
Now it seems the UK government has lost interest in any negotiations on any agreement whatsoever.

So, the endgame is the severing of all economic ties with the EU except trading under the WTO-rules?
This would actually set the clock on economic ties back to the situation before 1954, when the UK and the then European Communities entered into a mutual association agreement.

Baffling, simply baffling....  ::)

Q

I agree with your analysis. The hard part is what drives it? Johnson and Trump seem very matey and I think I am correct in saying Trump is no admirer of the EU. Getting into bed with Trump is not something I am entirely comfortable with but I am not overly enthusiastic with the EU as an organisation either - the countries that make up the EU is a different matter. For the UK it feels like being between a rock and a hard place. Only time will tell, but of course Covid-19 has thrown a massive spanner in the works!   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on April 24, 2020, 07:44:09 AM
Quote from: Que on April 23, 2020, 07:38:42 AM
back to the situation before 1954, when the UK and the then European Communities entered into a mutual association agreement.

Except that the UK is no longer in the situation they were before 1954 and the then European Communities are no longer extant since decades. Nothing is even remotely similar to that period for both entities. The future is in the making here and now; the past, while not completely irrelevant, is no trustful guide either.

(Says a guy who's staunchly in favor of a smoothly functional EU, yet quite sceptical about it ever being achieved)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on April 24, 2020, 10:57:16 AM
Quote from: Que on April 23, 2020, 07:38:42 AM
What I find striking is that the Brexit narrative has kept shifting towards a more and more radical option.
During the referendum the objective was to distance the UK from the EU political project, but to stay in the internal market.
Under May it was to leave the internal market, but to keep close economic ties.
Johnson took over and aimed at a Canadian-style bilateral trade deal.
Now it seems the UK government has lost interest in any negotiations on any agreement whatsoever.

So, the endgame is the severing of all economic ties with the EU except trading under the WTO-rules?
This would actually set the clock on economic ties back to the situation before 1954, when the UK and the then European Communities entered into a mutual association agreement.

Baffling, simply baffling....  ::)

Q

I agree it is baffling. I wonder if hardcore Tory Brexiteers have used the cover and confusion of the pandemic to successfully push the government into a more radical position? A government that of course that was not short of a no-deal supporting member or two (or adviser!) well before the pandemic ever arrived.

I also wonder how I personally, a staunch Remainer, will feel about this situation whenever the dust to this unprecedented upheaval settles. Perhaps my feelings will remain the same or even strengthen. But it's conceivable, in the wake of such traumatic and profound changes, that previous certainties will no longer seem such.

I mention this as I imagine that we are all, politicians and citizens, subject to the same emotional and gravitational pulls from the chaos, which will make any predictions or assumptions about Brexit even harder than they were before I think.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 25, 2020, 12:30:42 AM
Quote from: Florestan on April 24, 2020, 07:44:09 AM
Except that the UK is no longer in the situation they were before 1954 and the then European Communities are no longer extant since decades. Nothing is even remotely similar to that period for both entities. The future is in the making here and now; the past, while not completely irrelevant, is no trustful guide either.

Absolutely, the clock cannot be turned back to the twillight of the British Empire....
But who is going to tell that to the UK government and save the UK from its own folly?  ::)


Britain running down the clock in Brexit talks, says Michel Barnier (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/24/britain-running-down-the-clock-in-brexit-talks-says-michel-barnier-eu)

Barnier's comments seem to confirm that the UK government has indeed no interest in genuine negotiations anymore....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on April 25, 2020, 12:44:54 AM
Quote from: Florestan on April 24, 2020, 07:44:09 AM
Except that the UK is no longer in the situation they were before 1954 and the then European Communities are no longer extant since decades. Nothing is even remotely similar to that period for both entities. The future is in the making here and now; the past, while not completely irrelevant, is no trustful guide either.

(Says a guy who's staunchly in favor of a smoothly functional EU, yet quite sceptical about it ever being achieved)

In total agreement. The UK joined a "Common Market" not the political power base it has become with aspirations of a joint military project! The EU demands from the UK "a level playing field" but it is they who have moved the goal posts.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 25, 2020, 01:47:22 AM
Quote from: Irons on April 25, 2020, 12:44:54 AM
The EU demands from the UK "a level playing field" but it is they who have moved the goal posts.

There seems to be a misunderstanding.
The notion of "level playing field" refers exclusively to conditions for fair economic competition.
Of course fair competition means certain common standards on production, worker's conditions, state aid, etc.

It was the UK, including successive Tory governments, that invented the concept of the Internal Market and was its champion for decades. But now it is a bad idea?

Anyway, even if fhe UK has changed it mind on this financially beneficial concept that has earned the UK billions and billions of Pounds in the past. What EU is saying is that, if the UK wants to retain total and free access to the EU internal market - as its has been demanding right from the start of the negotiations - fair competition conditions ("level playing field") require that the UK sticks to a certain minimum of common standards.

This is not to the liking of Johnson & co. But that's pure "cakeism"...
The EU is not going to let UK companies roam freely on its internal market while they can undercut their competitors by cheaper & lower standards and government sweetners. It would destroy the Internal Market and is simply not going to happen.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 25, 2020, 02:07:01 AM
Quote from: Irons on April 25, 2020, 12:44:54 AM
[...] the political power base it has become with aspirations of a joint military project!

This is an entirely different matter, but I am actually all for it...
In these times of growing geopolitical instability the transformation of the EU into a global political and military force is actually a matter of grave urgency.

Who is going to stop Putin? His buddy Trump?? A common European defence is needed ASAP....
Another threat is China's growing influence in the entire world and its agression in Asia.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on April 25, 2020, 07:25:35 AM
Quote from: Que on April 25, 2020, 01:47:22 AM
There seems to be a misunderstanding.
The notion of "level playing field" refers exclusively to conditions for fair economic competition.
Of course fair competition means certain common standards on production, worker's conditions, state aid, etc.

It was the UK, including successive Tory governments, that invented the concept of the Internal Market and was its champion for decades. But now it is a bad idea?

Anyway, even if fhe UK has changed it mind on this financially beneficial concept that has earned the UK billions and billions of Pounds in the past. What EU is saying is that, if the UK wants to retain total and free access to the EU internal market - as its has been demanding right from the start of the negotiations - fair competition conditions ("level playing field") require that the UK sticks to a certain minimum of common standards.

This is not to the liking of Johnson & co. But that's pure "cakeism"...
The EU is not going to let UK companies roam freely on its internal market while they can undercut their competitors by cheaper & lower standards and government sweetners. It would destroy the Internal Market and is simply not going to happen.

Q

Which in a nutshell is why the UK is leaving without a deal. For good or ill Brexit is done and it is crazy to contemplate leaving a club whilst still abiding by the rules of said club - worst of both worlds. Workers rights for British nationals or foreigners working for British companies in the UK is not for Brussels to decide.
I do not think for a moment the UK Government believe that there is a cat in hell's chance that they will have free access to the EU marketplace. But it must not be forgotten that the boot is on the other foot, just ask Mercedes and BMW. Negotiations will proceed because the UK is a massive marketplace for EU companies and they will be desperate not to lose it. 

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 25, 2020, 08:04:27 AM
Quote from: Irons on April 25, 2020, 07:25:35 AM
But it must not be forgotten that the boot is on the other foot, just ask Mercedes and BMW. Negotiations will proceed because the UK is a massive marketplace for EU companies and they will be desperate not to lose it.

Absolutely. This is why the popular notion that the EU is playing an unfair game with the UK in the negotiations is not correct.
The EU does indeed have a big stake in the trade relation with the UK, and will agree with any deal that is (mutually) beneficial. The absence of a deal will definitely hurt the EU economically.

But the paradox is that the UK's economy is too big to allow "special favours" that would undermine fair competition ("level playing field") on the internal market. Just ask the German carmakers you mention, they have made public statements to the effect that the integrity of the internal market takes priority over any access to the UK market.

And another paradox is that hurting German carmakers by denying them easy access to the UK, will actually also hurt the UK economy. Since many of these "German" cars, or many of their parts, are actually produced in the UK. This brings us back to the high interconnectivity of the UK economy with the economies of the EU countries. As a consequence of the economic interdependence, leaving the internal market (which hasn't happened yet) is only possible if the UK is prepared to accept severe immediate and midterm damage to its economy. Can it afford to so so in the midst of a global economic recession?

My question is: the UK has left the EU, but where is the public debate on this important choice that now comes next?
It seems there is a sense in the UK that this is now a fait accompli, but it isn't. The EU is ready to sign off on any deal that will limit the economic damage. The problem is however not about the economics, but is political and lies with the UK.

My personal guess is that the UK government will continue to drag its feet untill the 30th June deadline for any extension comes around, and then make a similar turn as it did before Brexit and sign off on an extension of the transition period.
Since unleashing the economic damage of a no deal situation would be political suicide, this game could go on for a very long time - effectively keeping the UK in the internal market.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on April 25, 2020, 08:36:27 AM
Quote from: Que on April 25, 2020, 08:04:27 AM






My personal guess is that the UK government will continue to drag its feet untill the 30th June deadline for any extension comes around, and then make a similar turn as it did before Brexit and sign off on an extension of the transition period.
Since unleashing the economic damage of a no deal situation would be political suicide, this game could go on for a very long time - effectively keeping the UK in the internal market.

Q

You may be right as your guess is as good as mine. With what is going on in the world at the present time things of what was profound importance do not seem to matter anymore. When and if we get out of this the world is going to look a different place.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 25, 2020, 11:59:57 PM
Quote from: Irons on April 25, 2020, 08:36:27 AM
You may be right as your guess is as good as mine. With what is going on in the world at the present time things of what was profound importance do not seem to matter anymore. When and if we get out of this the world is going to look a different place.

I largely agree with your sentiment... :)
The political significance of Brexit has been dwarfed by the pandemic.
But I have to point out that the pandemic doesn't make Brexit go away. And indeed the economic and geopolitical consequences of the pandemic will only add importance to the decisions the UK still has to make about its relationship with the EU.

Where we probably part our ways, is that I think Brexit was a typical British "folly" to begin with....
The frustrations and unease with the political aspirations of the EU are understandable. But leaving - literally - decisions on the future of Europe to others, was very unwise. It has weakened Britain's position on the global stage, without getting anything back in return. Britain will now have less control over its own destiny, instead of more.

While leaving the EU was politically unwise, severing economic ties by leaving the internal market will be practically impossible. That is, if you want to save the UK economy from collapsing. And again, there is no real upside...

Time will tell....

(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/9e/8c/22/9e8c22847a88ac695b2fd3de278b4d59.jpg)

Broadway Tower, Worcestershire, England.

Definition of folly
1. lack of good sense or normal prudence and foresight.
2. tragically foolish actions or conduct.
3: a foolish act or idea.
4: an excessively costly or unprofitable undertaking.
5: an often extravagant picturesque building erected to suit a fanciful taste.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on April 26, 2020, 07:04:38 AM
Quote from: Que on April 25, 2020, 02:07:01 AM
Who is going to stop Putin?

If the only thing that can stop Putin is a common EU military, then you can start preparing the festivities for the welcoming of the Russian Army triumphantly marching through Dam Square.  ;D

Quote
His buddy Trump??

Do you imply that the USA poses any military threat to the EU?

Quote
A common European defence is needed ASAP....

A functional NATO is more than enough. The common European defence is pure fantasy.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 26, 2020, 10:28:26 AM
Quote from: Florestan on April 26, 2020, 07:04:38 AM
If the only thing that can stop Putin is a common EU military, then you can start preparing the festivities for the welcoming of the Russian Army triumphantly marching through Dam Square.  ;D

We might as well...  8) Though he'll probably start with Riga or Talinn...

QuoteDo you imply that the USA poses any military threat to the EU?

Uhhhh?  ???  I don't think the US can be relied on, if that clears it up.  8)

QuoteA functional NATO is more than enough. The common European defence is pure fantasy.

It's disfunctional, I refer to the answer I gave above. Turkey, of strategic importance, has become a wildcard as well...
The writing is on the wall, Andrei!  ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on April 26, 2020, 10:44:55 PM
Quote from: Que on April 26, 2020, 10:28:26 AM
We might as well...  8) Though he'll probably start with Riga or Talinn...

It's disfunctional, I refer to the answer I gave above. Turkey, of strategic importance, has become a wildcard as well...

Firstly, Rego, how do you know NATO is disfunctional? It has never really been put to test, ie, no member state has ever been attacked by a third party and invoked article 5. Some people, me included, would say that this is a sign that actually NATO functions perfectly well as a deterrent, in general not only with respect to Russia.

Secondly, re: Talinn and Riga --- the fact that Putin is still enraged by the Baltic States, Poland and Romania joining NATO and still foams at the mouth about it means that he knows only too well that as long as NATO exists he has zero chances to take those countries back in Russia's sphere of influence. Some people, me included, would say that this is another sign that actually NATO functions perfectly well as a deterrent, particularly with respect to Russia.

Thirdly, what is this putative common EU military supposed to be comprised of? Most EU members are NATO members as well and a good part of their military is engaged accordingly. To form a EU military would mean either assigning different army units to it or taking the NATO units out of NATO and assigning them to the EU military. The former case is highly unlikely while the second, well the second yes it would mean by itself a weakening of NATO to the point of rendering it disfunctional; iow, it would mean disrupting the existing and functional NATO in order to create another structure which nobody knows exactly what will look like (if at all), how it will work (if at all) and how long it will take to come into being (if at all). That would actually be Putin's dream came true. There is a Romanian proverb which applies perfectly here: don't trade the sparrow in your hand for the crow on the fence.

AfaIc, NATO is very much up and running and I don't see any other structure able to take its place nor do I think it desirable in the least to experiment with that.

QuoteI don't think the US can be relied on, if that clears it up.  8)

Did the EU as a whole, or any particular member state which is also a NATO member, need USA military assistance and it was denied them?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 26, 2020, 11:29:06 PM
We're drifting away from the topic of Brexit... so a short reply.
A European Defense Community (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_establishing_the_European_Defence_Community), something that nearly happened in the 1950's, would be perfectly compatible with NATO.
Even the Brits were prepared to join! :D

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on April 26, 2020, 11:37:39 PM
Quote from: Que on April 26, 2020, 11:29:06 PM
We're drifting away from the topic of Brexit... so a short reply.
A European Defense Community (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_establishing_the_European_Defence_Community), something that nearly happened in the 1950's, would be perfectly compatible with NATO.
Even the Brits were prepared to join! :D

Let that crow sit on the fence, but nurture the sparrow just in case... 8)

Q

??? ??? ???

Come on, Rego! Is that what's really supposed to replace NATO at European level, the putative revival of an unratified treaty from the early 1950s? Do you really think this fantasy will ever come true? My God, the crow is not even on the fence, it's been dead, buried and putrefying for almost a century.  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on April 27, 2020, 12:00:07 AM
Quote from: Que on April 26, 2020, 11:29:06 PM
We're drifting away from the topic of Brexit... so a short reply.
A European Defense Community (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_establishing_the_European_Defence_Community), something that nearly happened in the 1950's, would be perfectly compatible with NATO.
Even the Brits were prepared to join! :D

Q
IIRC (and I think I do), the European Defence Community was ratified in all parliaments, including the French; it only met with opposition in the French Senate (because of France's newly developed nuclear bomb they didn't want to share with their neighbours).  :)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on April 27, 2020, 12:10:39 AM
Quote from: Christo on April 27, 2020, 12:00:07 AM
IIRC (and I think I do), the European Defence Community was ratified in all parliaments, including the French; it only met with opposition in the French Senate (because of France's newly developed nuclear bomb they didn't want to share with their neighbours).  :)

You misremember. First of all, the Senate is the upper house of the French parliament, not something different from it. Secondly, it failed in the National Assembly, the lower house (319 against, 264 for). Thirdly, the Italian parliament never debated it.

All in all, it's an obsolete plan which was not feasible even back then with only 6 countries. To revive it for 26 countries and suggest it could really take NATO's place is pure fantasy --- and I wouldn't be surprised to learn that it's Putin and his fifth column that actually foment such an absurd idea. I'm greatly surprised instead that Rego can seriously think about it as something desirable, let alone doable.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 27, 2020, 01:07:05 AM
Quote from: Florestan on April 27, 2020, 12:10:39 AM
[...] and I wouldn't be surprised to learn that it's Putin and his fifth column that actually foment such an absurd idea.

I don't think Putin's internet brigade is plugging the idea. Sofar his focus seems to sowe as much division and discord amongst European allies as possible. He absolutely loved Brexit, for instance!! It's interesting to note that Obama's public support for remaining in the EU raised suspicion amongst UK voters, while Putin's support of Brexit didn't raise any alarm....  ::)

QuoteI'm greatly surprised instead that Rego can seriously think about it as something desirable, let alone doable.

This is beyond desirability or possibility, my friend. It is pure and hard necessity.
Would you rather rely on the ability to defend ourselves, or on a decaying and politically estranged former superpower?

I wonder what is the crow and what is the sparrow in this story? The sparrow might have died in your hand while you were clutching it.. ;)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on April 27, 2020, 01:49:23 AM
Quote from: Que on April 27, 2020, 01:07:05 AM
I don't think Putin's internet brigade is plugging the idea. Sofar his focus seems to sowe as much division and discord amongst European allies as possible. He absolutely loved Brexit, for instance!! It's interesting to note that Obama's public support for remaining in the EU raised suspicion amongst UK voters, while Putin's support of Brexit didn't raise any alarm....  ::)

This is beyond desirability or possibility, my friend. It is pure and hard necessity.
Would you rather rely on the ability to defend ourselves, or on a decaying and politically estranged former superpower?

I wonder what is the crow and what is the sparrow in this story? The sparrow might have died in your hand while you were clutching it.. ;)

Q

I thought it was clear that the sparrow in the hand is NATO and the crow on the fence is something that doesn't even have a name, let alone a body.

"The ability to defend ourselves" is a fiction* and I hope we'll never learn it the hard way. "The decaying and politically estranged formwr superpower" is still the only one able, if not to "defend" us, at least to scare our enemies away, which is actually the same thing. Rumors of its demise have been greatly exaggerated.

*or worse; need I remind you that when on their own, the major European countries produced not security and peace but mostly conflict and war? France, Germany (or the various German States), UK, Austria, Spain, Italy (or the various Italian States), The Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Russia --- all of them have for centuries been at war either with each other or in different combinations and alliances. Now, of course the prospect a (pan)European war is nil, but so is a pan-European concord and especially a pan-European common army. We have NATO and we should stick to it; everything else is wishful thinking (well-intentioned, no doubt, but naive).

EDIT: Putin can play many cards. When it suits him, he'll sow division and discord, sure; but if he (correctly) perceives all this talk about a common EU army as meaning a prospective weakening of NATO, if not downright its demise, he'll jump at every opportunity to bolster the project. I have no doubt about it.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on April 27, 2020, 07:34:00 AM
Quote from: Que on April 25, 2020, 11:59:57 PM


Where we probably part our ways, is that I think Brexit was a typical British "folly" to begin with....
The frustrations and unease with the political aspirations of the EU are understandable. But leaving - literally - decisions on the future of Europe to others, was very unwise. It has weakened Britain's position on the global stage, without getting anything back in return. Britain will now have less control over its own destiny, instead of more.

While leaving the EU was politically unwise, severing economic ties by leaving the internal market will be practically impossible. That is, if you want to save the UK economy from collapsing. And again, there is no real upside...


I do not think Britain owns folly, far from it. Although Gordon Brown had his detractors, myself among them, the British people owe him great sense of gratitude that through his insistence we did not join the euro. I think the British will be happy to leave the future of Europe to the Europeans. I don't understand why we will have less control by making our own rules and regulations?

The upside is if the eurozone economy collapses it doesn't take us with it.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ratliff on April 27, 2020, 07:52:59 AM
Quote from: Irons on April 27, 2020, 07:34:00 AMThe upside is if the eurozone economy collapses it doesn't take us with it.

...and vice versa, of course. :)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 27, 2020, 07:53:29 AM
Quote from: Irons on April 27, 2020, 07:34:00 AM
I do not think Britain owns folly, far from it. Although Gordon Brown had his detractors, myself among them, the British people owe him great sense of gratitude that through his insistence we did not join the euro. I think the British will be happy to leave the future of Europe to the Europeans. I don't understand why we will have less control by making our own rules and regulations?

The upside is if the Eurozone economy collapses it doesn't take us with it.

Not joining the the euro was definitely a wise decision!   :)
Note that Britain negiotiated an opt out.

As to Britain's destiny.... The way I see it is that these days any country's destiny is for a large part determined by outside influences, except, to some extent, if it is a country with a super power status. If you are not a superpower, belonging to a powerful bloc/alliance  is the 2nd best option. Especially if you are a major player in that bloc, like Britain was in the EU. If the bloc offers free trade on a very large consumer market, this will hugely benefit your economy. So, the benefits of membership are political as well as economical.

Outside the bloc, you're basically on your own... But you can still build occasional, case-by-case coalitions. Which will all come at a price, very much like the membership of a bloc. Many British diplomats have endlessly argued that Britain's international leverage as a EU member was much larger than in the present situation. But you don't to have take their word for it.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on April 27, 2020, 07:53:52 AM
Quote from: Irons on April 27, 2020, 07:34:00 AM
I do not think Britain owns folly, far from it.

Folly is actually the common property of mankind.

Quote
Although Gordon Brown had his detractors, myself among them, the British people owe him great sense of gratitude that through his insistence we did not join the euro.

Although Romanian politicians, right and left alike, all claim they want us to join the euro in 2021, I do hope we'll never join it.

Quote
I think the British will be happy to leave the future of Europe to the Europeans.

Are the British not Europeans? Judging by how many times during history they meddled in the continental affairs I'd say they are.  ;D

Quote
I don't understand why we will have less control by making our own rules and regulations?

The upside is if the eurozone economy collapses it doesn't take us with it.

Two good points, honestly.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 27, 2020, 07:59:12 AM
Quote from: Florestan on April 27, 2020, 07:53:52 AM
Two good points, honestly.

No country's destiny is determined by domestic rules & policies, really....

Unless... you're on an island!  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on April 27, 2020, 08:06:14 AM
Quote from: Que on April 27, 2020, 07:59:12 AM
No country's destiny is determined by domestic rules & policies, really....

Irons said "control", not "destiny".

Quote
Unless... you're on an island!  ;)

Being on an island is destiny.  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on April 28, 2020, 12:57:20 AM
A good proportion of the British public are pro-European which explains why the Brexit vote was close. But feeling European as a national from the continent does is a different matter. The reasons I guess, amongst other things are language (you can speak ours but we can't speak yours - so unfair!), historical and stuck on a small island.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 09, 2020, 12:33:42 AM
Brexit and the economic fall out of the pandemic:

Quote
[...]
As it have its official spring forecasts, the commission also said it expected the UK to be among the five European countries to suffer most from the economic impact of the coronavirus, with recovery then set to be hampered by the country's exit from the EU's single market at the end of the year.

The commission said the UK economy was expected to shrink by 8.3% by the end of the year, as a result of lockdown measures, with investment down 14% and unemployment doubling
the highest number of coronavirus deaths in Europe and the ECDC said the country was one of a handful where there had been no significant downturn in the number of infections.

Only the GDPs of Greece, Italy, Spain and Croatia are expected to contract more than the UK's.
The French economy is forecast to shrink by 8.2%, a similar figure to the UK, but the recovery of the British economy is likely to be hampered by the extra barriers to trade when the Brexit transition period ends.

The commission listed the the blow to the UK's hospitality and continued uncertainty about the outcome of the country's departure from the EU as reasons for its relatively poor economic prospects.

The UK government is negotiating with Brussels on the terms of trade once Britain leaves the single market and customs union.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/06/coronavirus-threatens-future-eurozone-brussels-economic-social-divisions-pandemic
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on May 09, 2020, 07:12:40 AM
Quote from: Que on May 09, 2020, 12:33:42 AM
Brexit and the economic fall out of the pandemic:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/06/coronavirus-threatens-future-eurozone-brussels-economic-social-divisions-pandemic

The Guardian gets more quotes (and tasteless cartoons) in this and other threads on this forum of any British paper. I can't for the life of me think why.  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 12, 2020, 01:06:56 AM
I'll quote a source other than The Guardian.... What about the Office for National Statistics?

UK GDP fell by 10.4% in the three months to April 2020
GDP fell by 20.4% in April 2020
(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/april2020)

This makes the UK one of the most severely hit economies in Europe.
If the transition period expires without a deal that would keep the UK in the internal market, things will definitely get even worse...

My question is: will Boris be prepared to commit economic & political suicide?

Or... is he going to use the pandemic as a cover for severing all close economic ties to the EU?

Q


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on June 12, 2020, 01:38:14 AM
Quote from: Que on June 12, 2020, 01:06:56 AM

This makes the UK one of the most severely hit economies in Europe.

Why should the UK economy be hit / scarred more severely than other European economies?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: MusicTurner on June 12, 2020, 01:46:20 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on June 12, 2020, 01:38:14 AM
Why should the UK economy be hit / scarred more severely than other European economies?

Do you disagree with the statement - or do you ask generally for the reasons behind the current or future crisis with regards the UK?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 12, 2020, 02:04:26 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on June 12, 2020, 01:38:14 AM
Why should the UK economy be hit / scarred more severely than other European economies?

Good question. :)

Because national economies are different. The UK economy is a services economy,  is heavily reliant on international trade and in urgent need of modernisation. The impact of the pandemic on the UK is in the European top-5, behind Greece, Italy, Spain and Croatia, and just ahead of France.

The next good question would be:

If this is the case, why is the UK leaving the biggest economic bloc on the planet? 

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on June 12, 2020, 06:35:26 AM
Quote from: Que on June 12, 2020, 02:04:26 AM
Good question. :)



The next good question would be:

If this is the case, why is the UK leaving the biggest economic bloc on the planet? 

Q

And with the greatest urgency. There must be a reason and I confess I have no idea what. A good question to ask Cummings but no chance of him explaining why. One day we will know.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 12, 2020, 09:30:03 AM
Boris has decided that he will go head on, and the negotiations will have no fall back position: it will be make or break...

UK formally rejects Brexit transition period extension (https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-formally-rejects-brexit-transition-period-extension/) (Politico)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on June 12, 2020, 11:33:44 PM
UK announces border checks and tariffs delayed for six months to allow business to adjust.

Will be interesting to see if the EU replicate.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 13, 2020, 12:42:18 AM
Quote from: Irons on June 12, 2020, 11:33:44 PM
UK announces border checks and tariffs delayed for six months to allow business to adjust.

Will be interesting to see if the EU replicate.

It has already anounced that it won't.

And it can't, because it would create a huge hole in the tariff border of the EU which would be used by every business in the EU to channel their imports through the UK into the EU free of any tariffs and checks.

It would be like a hole in a bucket...
For the UK it works the other way around: the hole will allow an influx of necessary goods. 

From the Financial Times:
"The EU will enforce full customs and regulatory checks immediately after Brexit and will not reciprocate the UK's plan for a temporary light touch border on the British side of the English channel, a senior Brussels official warned on Friday.

Maroš Šefčovič, a vice-president of the European Commission who co-chairs a EU-UK committee implementing the Brexit withdrawal agreement, said that while the UK border was a matter for the British government, the bloc would robustly maintain its equivalent.

The British government on Friday proposed a temporary light touch border regime for goods flowing into the UK from the EU, as ministers sought to ease the burden on companies following the coronavirus crisis.

But Mr Šefčovič indicated goods heading into the EU from the UK would face full customs and regulatory checks.
"I can assure everyone that the EU will continue to fully protect the integrity of the single market and customs union as well as its financial interest," he said, after the UK formally confirmed it would not seek to extend the Brexit transition period beyond December.

The EU approach emerged as the UK provided details about how it will phase in new border controls over a six-month period from January, in order to help companies adjust to new trading arrangements as Britain leaves the bloc's single market and customs union."
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: accmacmus on June 15, 2020, 05:56:27 PM
Sad to see Barnier's tweets today, you can feel the disappointment at the negotiating table.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 20, 2020, 12:48:59 AM
A FREE article from the Financial Times:

Covid crisis likely to mask economic fallout of no-deal Brexit

Economists question why UK would want to inflict further pain on businesses
(https://www.ft.com/content/4440f83d-7e8a-4510-b8b7-3fb9146da51a)


Economists agree that a no deal Brexit would have dire consequences for the UK economy.
Johnson has ruled out an extension of the transition period, but is quite  up beat about a deal before the negotiation deadline of end of October!

I'm convinced he will strike a deal, preferably one that looks good politically.
I think he will ask and get from the EU a compromise on fisheries, which is politically hugely important..... and economically insignificant.

The deal itself is probably going to be a pretty basic free-movements-of-goods kind of deal with some extras thrown in, like cooperation in the field of  justice & security and the continuation of special programs, like in education (Erasmus) and healthcare for British expat pensioners and holiday makers.

Politically Johnson will save face and will be able to claim victory on fisheries and liberation from the yoke of the EU.
Thanks to the free movement of goods there won't be lines of truck on the roads to Dover.

But in reality there will be restrictions on the possibilities in the negotiations on a bilateral trade deal with the US, which the US is not going to like. And the irony will be that this kind of deal will solve most of the problems for the EU,  while it won't safeguard the all important services sector for the UK....

IMO the UK will get stuck between a rock and a hard place...
Over time the only way forward will be to get back into the single market (the "Norway option") through a second bilateral treaty with the EU,  probably signed by Keir Starmer as PM... (?)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on June 20, 2020, 07:49:24 AM
Quote from: Que on June 20, 2020, 12:48:59 AM
A FREE article from the Financial Times:

Covid crisis likely to mask economic fallout of no-deal Brexit

Economists question why UK would want to inflict further pain on businesses
(https://www.ft.com/content/4440f83d-7e8a-4510-b8b7-3fb9146da51a)


Economists agree that a no deal Brexit would have dire consequences for the UK economy.
Johnson has ruled out an extension of the transition period, but is quite  up beat about a deal before the negotiation deadline of end of October!

I'm convinced he will strike a deal, preferably one that looks good politically.
I think he will ask and get from the EU a compromise on fisheries, which is politically hugely important..... and economically insignificant.

The deal itself is probably going to be a pretty basic free-movements-of-goods kind of deal with some extras thrown in, like cooperation in the field of  justice & security and the continuation of special programs, like in education (Erasmus) and healthcare for British expat pensioners and holiday makers.

Politically Johnson will save face and will be able to claim victory on fisheries and liberation from the yoke of the EU.
Thanks to the free movement of goods there won't be lines of truck on the roads to Dover.

But in reality there will be restrictions on the possibilities in the negotiations on a bilateral trade deal with the US, which the US is not going to like. And the irony will be that this kind of deal will solve most of the problems for the EU,  while it won't safeguard the all important services sector for the UK....

IMO the UK will get stuck between a rock and a hard place...
Over time the only way forward will be to get back into the single market (the "Norway option") through a second bilateral treaty with the EU,  probably signed by Keir Starmer as PM... (?)

Q

The EU have said a no deal would have dire comprises on the UK economy. As Johnson said to Barnier you are a negotiator not a referee.

I agree with much of your analyses with perhaps exception of the Starmer prediction. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: accmacmus on July 09, 2020, 11:35:24 AM
More from Barnier https://twitter.com/Barnes_Joe/status/1281261419472838656

Still «significant divergences» with little time to go...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on July 09, 2020, 12:55:06 PM
Quite interesting to read about what is happening with Brexit--including the new problems created by Covid.  I'm sorry, though, that it looks like it could turn into an even bigger nightmare for a lot of people.   :(

Best wishes,

PD
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 14, 2020, 03:56:42 AM
All the pre-referendum talk about getting rid of red tape and frictionless trade..... all gone...


Brexit: Get ready because this time it's for real  (BBC) (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53395560)


Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on July 14, 2020, 07:19:33 AM
Quote from: Que on July 14, 2020, 03:56:42 AM
All the pre-referendum talk about getting rid of red tape and frictionless trade..... all gone...


Brexit: Get ready because this time it's for real  (BBC) (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53395560)


Q

It has. Obvious that Barnier and Frost will never archive a consensus in any shape or form. Prolonging the agony is pointless.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 14, 2020, 07:47:39 AM
Quote from: Irons on July 14, 2020, 07:19:33 AM
It has. Obvious that Barnier and Frost will never archive a consensus in any shape or form. Prolonging the agony is pointless.

Never say never, hopefully a last minute deal can be struck in the interest of both parties. But things are looking dim...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on July 14, 2020, 08:00:50 AM
Quote from: Que on July 14, 2020, 07:47:39 AM
Never say never, hopefully a last minute deal can be struck in the interest of both parties. But things are looking dim...

Q

Not looking good. Both sides are appearing more entrenched in their positions. I thought maybe Merkel could sort it out but her comments last week were far from conciliatory.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on July 14, 2020, 10:20:03 AM
Another little nail in the coffin ..

It's seemed for some while that the UK government was not serious about looking for an agreement, and was only going through the motions of doing so, for appearances sake, to provide fodder for the inevitable disingenuous explanations ('we tried, the EU inflexible' blah, blah).
More evidence they weren't serious already came in June, when the UK government refused any extension to the Brexit transition period. This meant that Johnson, in his usual duplicitous way, could now leave the clock to deliver the final coup de grace of a no-deal Brexit, claiming to have worked until the last moment to avoid it.

We're going to be diving from a place of great weakness, into a huge and risky unknown, with a vacuous non-leader at the helm. What could possibly go wrong?  ::)

I very much hope luck is on our side, because competence and clear-sightedness of the path ahead in the upper echelons of this government, seem about as plentiful as coronavirus vaccines.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on July 14, 2020, 10:29:07 AM
Quote from: Iota on July 14, 2020, 10:20:03 AM
Another little nail in the coffin ..

It's seemed for some while that the UK government was not serious about looking for an agreement, and was only going through the motions of doing so, for appearances sake, to provide fodder for the inevitable disingenuous explanations ('we tried, the EU inflexible' blah, blah).
More evidence they weren't serious already came in June, when the UK government refused any extension to the Brexit transition period. This meant that Johnson, in his usual duplicitous way, could now leave the clock to deliver the final coup de grace of a no-deal Brexit, claiming to have worked until the last moment to avoid it.

We're going to be diving from a place of great weakness, into a huge and risky unknown, with a vacuous non-leader at the helm. What could possibly go wrong?  ::)

I very much hope luck is on our side, because competence and clear-sightedness of the path ahead in the upper echelons of this government, seem about as plentiful as coronavirus vaccines.
I completely agree with this analysis. Johnson wants to be seen as the PM who lead us, like Moses, to the promised land of 'Global Britain'. Instead of that I suspect he will be seen as an incompetent Little Englander who failed to deal adequately with the Coronavirus pandemic, blamed everyone other than himself, and is ultimately responsible for the needless deaths of thousands of elderly people in care homes plus medical and care home staff who were not properly equipped to do their job safely. I am not a Labour supporter, especially when Jeremy Corbyn was in power and am, by nature, Liberal in my beliefs but I would much rather have Kier Starmer as Prime Minister or, even better, Jacinda Ardern.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on July 14, 2020, 11:00:27 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on July 14, 2020, 10:29:07 AMI suspect he [Johnson] will be seen as an incompetent Little Englander

I wonder if there are really many people left, even in his own camp, who don't already see him this way.

Quote from: vandermolen on July 14, 2020, 10:29:07 AM
I am not a Labour supporter, especially when Jeremy Corbyn was in power and am, by nature, Liberal in my beliefs but I would much rather have Kier Starmer as Prime Minister or, even better, Jacinda Ardern.

I started off very enthused by Corbyn's arrival, I thought he might bring about real changes for good. I became quickly disillusioned however and ultimately found him a shifty and very ineffective figure.
If the Liberals ever really got their act together, I feel they could be a very positive force in British politics.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on July 14, 2020, 11:45:31 AM
Quote from: Iota on July 14, 2020, 11:00:27 AM
I wonder if there are really many people left, even in his own camp, who don't already see him this way.

I started off very enthused by Corbyn's arrival, I thought he might bring about real changes for good. I became quickly disillusioned however and ultimately found him a shifty and very ineffective figure.
If the Liberals ever really got their act together, I feel they could be a very positive force in British politics.
I'd like to think so too - there is a need for such a force in British politics. I was also very disillusioned by Corbyn. In the end I just didn't think that he was very bright.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on July 15, 2020, 08:47:43 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on July 14, 2020, 10:29:07 AM
I completely agree with this analysis. Johnson wants to be seen as the PM who lead us, like Moses, to the promised land of 'Global Britain'. Instead of that I suspect he will be seen as an incompetent Little Englander who failed to deal adequately with the Coronavirus pandemic, blamed everyone other than himself, and is ultimately responsible for the needless deaths of thousands of elderly people in care homes plus medical and care home staff who were not properly equipped to do their job safely. I am not a Labour supporter, especially when Jeremy Corbyn was in power and am, by nature, Liberal in my beliefs but I would much rather have Kier Starmer as Prime Minister or, even better, Jacinda Ardern.

Never afraid to admit my ignorance I had to google Jacinda Ardern. You are right, a top politician with a human touch. I would be the last person to advise the Labour party but they need a female leader as long as it isn't Annaliese Dodds. They dodged a bullet with leftie Long-Bailey but I have been impressed by Angela Rayner so far. A future leader?

Same with the LibDems. Swinson was a disaster, but Layla Moran could turn the party around if she is elected and I think she will. A woman to watch, maybe.

Now, as for Johnson..... ;)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on July 15, 2020, 02:00:06 PM
Quote from: Irons on July 15, 2020, 08:47:43 AM
Never afraid to admit my ignorance I had to google Jacinda Ardern. You are right, a top politician with a human touch. I would be the last person to advise the Labour party but they need a female leader as long as it isn't Annaliese Dodds. They dodged a bullet with leftie Long-Bailey but I have been impressed by Angela Rayner so far. A future leader?

Same with the LibDems. Swinson was a disaster, but Layla Moran could turn the party around if she is elected and I think she will. A woman to watch, maybe.

Now, as for Johnson..... ;)

Very much agree about Angela Rayner - an impressive MP. Layla Moran was at the school that I taught at - she looked very different then. I may have taught her but can't remember. I think that she's impressive as well. As I'm a local Liberal member I participated in an online Zoom conference with her as part of her leadership bid a couple of weeks ago. Swinson impressed me at first but the unilateral rejection of the Referendum result was a disaster. I voted for her as leader  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on July 16, 2020, 12:47:56 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on July 15, 2020, 02:00:06 PM
Very much agree about Angela Rayner - an impressive MP. Layla Moran was at the school that I taught at - she looked very different then. I may have taught her but can't remember. I think that she's impressive as well. As I'm a local Liberal member I participated in an online Zoom conference with her as part of her leadership bid a couple of weeks ago. Swinson impressed me at first but the unilateral rejection of the Referendum result was a disaster. I voted for her as leader  ::)

Impressed you are involved in local politics, Jeffrey. Full of admiration for contributors to the cause of whatever party rather then keyboard warriors who shout the loudest. I was alerted to Moran by the twice a week "For The Many" political podcast I subscribe to which is hosted by Ian Dale and the ex-Home Secretary in the Blair Government, Jacqui Smith. Dale is from the right and Smith left obviously, but they get on and neither are entrenched in their views.

I must admit I thought Swinson would clean up votes with her Brexit strategy. I still cannot quite understand why she didn't although the policy unconstitutional . Perhaps the reason of failure was Swinson herself. Politics is cruel.     
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on July 16, 2020, 12:54:16 AM
Quote from: Irons on July 16, 2020, 12:47:56 AM
Impressed you are involved in local politics, Jeffrey. Full of admiration for contributors to the cause of whatever party rather then keyboard warriors who shout the loudest. I was alerted to Moran by the twice a week "For The Many" political podcast I subscribe to which is hosted by Ian Dale and the ex-Home Secretary in the Blair Government, Jacqui Smith. Dale is from the right and Smith left obviously, but they get on and neither are entrenched in their views.

I must admit I thought Swinson would clean up votes with her Brexit strategy. I still cannot quite understand why she didn't although the policy unconstitutional . Perhaps the reason of failure was Swinson herself. Politics is cruel.   
I'm not that involved to be honest Lol, but joined the party after the Referendum and turn up to meetings every now and again. Dale and Smith are good value - I enjoy those kind of programmes. I thought that Swinson was a breath of fresh air but then it all went horribly wrong. I felt very sorry that she lost her seat in parliament.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on July 16, 2020, 07:25:37 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on July 16, 2020, 12:54:16 AM
I'm not that involved to be honest Lol, but joined the party after the Referendum and turn up to meetings every now and again. Dale and Smith are good value - I enjoy those kind of programmes. I thought that Swinson was a breath of fresh air but then it all went horribly wrong. I felt very sorry that she lost her seat in parliament.

Will be with her for ever. Still, made Nicola Sturgeon happy. Her reaction in my mind is only bettered by this https://youtu.be/NiC679ASOyA
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on July 16, 2020, 09:24:23 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on July 15, 2020, 02:00:06 PM
Layla Moran was at the school that I taught at - she looked very different then. I may have taught her but can't remember. I think that she's impressive as well.
I had also thought highly of Layla Moran until I saw her walking out with Jo Swinson in support of the policy of rejecting the Referendum result. I'm aware of the compromises necessary in politics, but it still really surprised me she did.
I haven't given her much thought since then, though she's certainly talented, and none of us is above making misjudgements, particularly in such heated environs as the pre-election Brexit debate, so a reconciliation possible for me I guess. I'm sure she'll be immensely relieved ..

Quote from: vandermolen on July 15, 2020, 02:00:06 PMSwinson impressed me at first but the unilateral rejection of the Referendum result was a disaster. I voted for her as leader  ::)

I must admit I never found Jo Swinson persuasive as a political figure, though she did seem a sincere and likeable person.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on July 16, 2020, 10:16:16 PM
Quote from: Irons on July 16, 2020, 07:25:37 AM
Will be with her for ever. Still, made Nicola Sturgeon happy. Her reaction in my mind is only bettered by this https://youtu.be/NiC679ASOyA

Yes, Delia's, presumably drunken, appearance is a great classic. Yes, Sturgeon's characteristically ungracious piece of schadenfreude reflected badly on her.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on July 16, 2020, 10:21:15 PM
Quote from: Iota on July 16, 2020, 09:24:23 AM
I had also thought highly of Layla Moran until I saw her walking out with Jo Swinson in support of the policy of rejecting the Referendum result. I'm aware of the compromises necessary in politics, but it still really surprised me she did.
I haven't given her much thought since then, though she's certainly talented, and none of us is above making misjudgements, particularly in such heated environs as the pre-election Brexit debate, so a reconciliation possible for me I guess. I'm sure she'll be immensely relieved ..

I must admit I never found Jo Swinson persuasive as a political figure, though she did seem a sincere and likeable person.
She probably would be pleased as she's on the Liberal leadership campaign trail at the moment  :)
I agree, in retrospect, with your Jo Swinson comments. Voting for her as Liberal leader was the only time in my life that I've ever voted for something or someone who was actually elected - and look what happened there!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: accmacmus on July 18, 2020, 05:48:10 AM
https://twitter.com/DanielFerrie/status/1284127123679174658
Agenda for 21-23 July. Looks really packed.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: accmacmus on August 15, 2020, 05:16:26 AM
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/miche-l-martin-upbeat-about-brexit-trade-deal-after-meeting-boris-johnson-cxhv22j9x
«Micheál Martin upbeat about Brexit trade deal after meeting Boris Johnson»

Let's hope.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on August 15, 2020, 06:11:28 AM
Quote from: accmacmus on August 15, 2020, 05:16:26 AM
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/miche-l-martin-upbeat-about-brexit-trade-deal-after-meeting-boris-johnson-cxhv22j9x
«Micheál Martin upbeat about Brexit trade deal after meeting Boris Johnson»

Let's hope.

I hope so too.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 15, 2020, 09:51:19 AM
Quote from: accmacmus on August 15, 2020, 05:16:26 AM
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/miche-l-martin-upbeat-about-brexit-trade-deal-after-meeting-boris-johnson-cxhv22j9x
«Micheál Martin upbeat about Brexit trade deal after meeting Boris Johnson»

Let's hope.

Quote from: Irons on August 15, 2020, 06:11:28 AM
I hope so too.

Johnson doesn't have much choice, so a deal is definitely in the cards.

That's the good news....

The bad news is that the deal will be limited in scope and ambition, which means the shock to the UK economy from January 1st will still be considerable.

Lulled to sleep by four years of much talk and little consequence, the British public is in for a rude awakening...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on August 16, 2020, 12:51:36 AM
Quote from: Que on August 15, 2020, 09:51:19 AM
Johnson doesn't have much choice, so a deal is definitely in the cards.

That's the good news....

The bad news is that the deal will be limited in scope and ambition, which means the shock to the UK economy from January 1st will still be considerable.

Lulled to sleep by four years of much talk and little consequence, the British public is in for a rude awakening...

Q

I hope your leaders are more conciliatory and balanced in their views. A long shot, I know.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 16, 2020, 02:17:05 AM
Quote from: Irons on August 16, 2020, 12:51:36 AM
I hope your leaders are more conciliatory and balanced in their views. A long shot, I know.

I think it's not in their long term interest to take advantage of the situation.
Countries like the Netherlands, Denmark and even Germany have always advocated a reconciliatory approach.

It sounds trivial, but politically I think fisheries will be a pivotal topic.
A deal that puts thousands of Dutch, Danish, Flemish and French fishermen out of work, would be politically impossible to sell in the EU...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on August 16, 2020, 05:04:31 AM
Quote from: Que on August 16, 2020, 02:17:05 AM
It sounds trivial, but politically I think fisheries will be a pivotal topic.
A deal that puts thousands of Dutch, Danish, Flemish and French fishermen out of work, would be politically impossible to sell in the EU...

Yes, I remember the Cod War with Iceland in the 1970s and the UK fishing fleet has suffered a lot from overfishing and quotas. Cheaper fish would be great; we eat a lot, had large cod and chips yesterday, rollmop herring in our picnic this morning, often have salmon and sardines :P.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on August 16, 2020, 06:06:45 AM
Quote from: steve ridgway on August 16, 2020, 05:04:31 AM
Yes, I remember the Cod War with Iceland in the 1970s and the UK fishing fleet has suffered a lot from overfishing and quotas. Cheaper fish would be great; we eat a lot, had large cod and chips yesterday, rollmop herring in our picnic this morning, often have salmon and sardines :P.

Funnily enough so did I - two large cod and one large chips (sharing with missus), lovely. Then I read in ST this morning that Britain is 33rd in the WHO obesity table and France is 87th. This is attributed to olives over pasty, light beer over dark beer and rosé and pastis. But most of all it's simple: It's fish and chips for us and the French have a seafood platter of oysters, mussels, whelks, sea urchins and razor clams. Mind you the same article points out French TV is rubbish and PSG aside French football is at the level of Scottish second division.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on August 16, 2020, 06:22:02 AM
Quote from: Irons on August 16, 2020, 06:06:45 AM
French TV is rubbish

TV5 is not that bad. Arte is very good (a Franco-German venture, granted, but still...). And of course there is always Mezzo.

Beside BBC World (which I find no different than any number of similar channels) I haven't watched any British TV.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on August 16, 2020, 06:48:25 AM
Quote from: Florestan on August 16, 2020, 06:22:02 AM
TV5 is not that bad. Arte is very good (a Franco-German venture, granted, but still...). And of course there is always Mezzo.

Beside BBC World (which I find no different than any number of similar channels) I haven't watched any British TV.

I was quoting the article. I enjoyed the French "Chasing the Money" not as good though as the Scandie "The Bridge" which is being repeated here currently. Series one is better second time around. British TV is hopeless.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on August 16, 2020, 06:52:51 AM
Quote from: Irons on August 16, 2020, 06:48:25 AM
I was quoting the article.

I know. I should have quoted Sunday Times instead of directly your post.

Quote from: Irons on August 16, 2020, 06:48:25 AM
British TV is hopeless.

Romanian TV is no better. Not all channels rubbish but most of them, most of the time.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: accmacmus on August 16, 2020, 02:42:34 PM
Quote from: Que on August 16, 2020, 02:17:05 AM
It sounds trivial, but politically I think fisheries will be a pivotal topic.
A deal that puts thousands of Dutch, Danish, Flemish and French fishermen out of work, would be politically impossible to sell in the EU...

I would have said the contrary: fisheries account for the 0.12% of economic output of the United Kingdom and the whole «agriculture, fisheries and forestry» sector in, e.g., France amounts to a ≃1.6% (in the 60s it was 10%).
On the other hand — as you correctly said — politics is not just arithmetic on economic data.

This is the timetable for the 19-20 August negotiation round (https://twitter.com/DanielFerrie/status/1293849830708711424): two days to find some common ground on level playing field, fisheries, trade in goods, services and more... I hope the two negotiators know what they are doing.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on August 17, 2020, 04:39:14 AM
Quote from: Irons on August 16, 2020, 06:48:25 AM
I was quoting the article. I enjoyed the French "Chasing the Money" not as good though as the Scandie "The Bridge" which is being repeated here currently. Series one is better second time around. British TV is hopeless.

BBC documentary TV is very good, and the occasional drama.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on August 17, 2020, 07:00:11 AM
Quote from: steve ridgway on August 17, 2020, 04:39:14 AM
BBC documentary TV is very good, and the occasional drama.

I am told the best drama is to be found on Netflix, Sky Atlantic and others. I don't subscribe so cannot confirm if it is. I didn't bother with "Doc Martin" (ITV) first time around but must admit enjoying the repeats. "Killing Eve" (BBC) is excellent. Other then that - nothing I can think of. Some excellent drama from abroad televised Saturday nights on Channel 4.

As for BBC documentary, I would rather not go there.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on August 22, 2020, 06:39:29 AM
Brexit negotiations.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: accmacmus on September 04, 2020, 03:53:54 PM
Eight negotiation round in a few days

Michel Barnier, EU negotiatior: «Leaving London after talks with @DavidGHFrost. 🇪🇺 will continue these difficult negotiations with patience and determination. Full round in 🇬🇧 next week. Virtual tour of EU capitals is on going to help Member States prepare for all scenarios and inevitable #Brexit changes on 1/1/21.»

David Frost, UK negotiator: «Here is the agenda for the 8th Round of our talks with the EU.  We look forward to welcoming @MichelBarnier and his team to London next week. We have scheduled lots of time for discussions, as we should at this point in the talks. However, the EU still insists we change our positions on state aid and fisheries if there are to be substantive textual discussions on anything else. From the very beginning we have been clear about what we can accept in these areas, which are fundamental to our status as an independent country. We will negotiate constructively but the EU's stance may, realistically, limit the progress we can make next week.»
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on September 06, 2020, 12:30:51 AM
Frost is quoted as saying of Barnier He wants to have his fishcake and eat it.

With Scottish independence an ever increasing threat to the United Kingdom, fishing quotas in the North Sea have great political significance. If we leave and EU retain fishing quotas Scotland are gone. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 06, 2020, 12:53:35 AM
I'm not surprised that fish quotas is a potential breaking point.

And state aid, which used to be Corbin's hobby horse. What happened to the Tories?  ???

Word is that EU is willing to compromise on the fish quotas, in exchange for guarantees on state aid.

But it seems the UK isn't willing to compromise on either.... For political reasons...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on September 06, 2020, 05:13:45 AM
Quote from: Que on September 06, 2020, 12:53:35 AM
I'm not surprised that fish quotas is a potential breaking point.

And state aid, which used to be Corbin's hobby horse. What happened to the Tories?  ???

Word is that EU is willing to compromise on the fish quotas, in exchange for guarantees on state aid.

But it seems the UK isn't willing to compromise on either.... For political reasons...

Q

The Tory Government are flip flapping like a hungry seal at the present time. If a U turn can be made they are making it. Obviously this is not missed by the EU negotiating team and they think push and the UK will fall into line. The dangerous scenario is that both sides make a miscalculation and we end up with no deal. I personally can now envisage no other outcome.     
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on September 06, 2020, 01:56:28 PM
Quote from: Irons on September 06, 2020, 05:13:45 AMThe dangerous scenario is that both sides make a miscalculation and we end up with no deal.

It hardly seems like a miscalculation now that the government are introducing legislation on Wednesday (in the Internal Market Bill), effectively reneging on agreements made with the EU about the Northern Ireland Protocol and state aid. It seems more like a deliberate attempt to sabotage talks and make no deal an inevitable outcome.

Apart from the prospect of no deal being a frightening one, if it does happen any future negotiators with this UK government will presumably assume complete untrustworthiness in them, and adjust their behaviour accordingly, hardly an auspicious setting for forging a new future. : (
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 06, 2020, 10:21:51 PM
Quote from: Iota on September 06, 2020, 01:56:28 PM
It hardly seems like a miscalculation now that the government are introducing legislation on Wednesday (in the Internal Market Bill), effectively reneging on agreements made with the EU about the Northern Ireland Protocol and state aid. It seems more like a deliberate attempt to sabotage talks and make no deal an inevitable outcome.

Apart from the prospect of no deal being a frightening one, if it does happen any future negotiators with this UK government will presumably assume complete untrustworthiness in them, and adjust their behaviour accordingly, hardly an auspicious setting for forging a new future. : (

Indeed. Also saw an article in the Financial Time that the UK is planning to backpedle on the exit agreement, which is an international treaty (!)... This is a big no-no in international relations...

If the EU is is not willing to accept such a move, and it probably will not, this would mean the end of any agreement... on anything... And even, particularly if the agreed status of NI is not respected, economic sanctions in the form of import restrictions and limitation of access to the internal market.

Very dangerous stuff....  ::)  No amount of fish in the sea that cannot be caught, eaten or exported will make up for it....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: accmacmus on September 07, 2020, 03:04:42 AM
Quote from: Que on September 06, 2020, 10:21:51 PM
Also saw an article in the Financial Time that the UK is planning to backpedle on the exit agreement, which is an international treaty (!)... This is a big no-no in international relations...

I thought "maybe the news was overblown/misreported". But apparently it is credible, Von der Leyen (head of EU Commission) herself chimed in

(https://i.imgur.com/HzWx3Py.png)

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Herman on September 07, 2020, 03:10:21 AM
I may be wrong on this, but it sounds like BJ and the Tories are using the fishing industry in the same way Trump used the coal mining industry. Tiny pocket of the economy, just symbolic.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on September 07, 2020, 04:39:12 AM
Quote from: accmacmus on September 07, 2020, 03:04:42 AM
I thought "maybe the news was overblown/misreported". But apparently it is credible, Von der Leyen (head of EU Commission) herself chimed in

(https://i.imgur.com/HzWx3Py.png)




Where Ursula von der Leyen is going wrong is summed up in the first five words of her tweet. The British government are  an unprincipled group of incompetent, short-sighted reprobates all bent on vaunting their hardcore brexit credentials, and an unwise investment for her trust.

Obviously she's just trying to put a bit of pressure on them, but they seem too far gone for that now sadly.



Quote from: Herman on September 07, 2020, 03:10:21 AM
I may be wrong on this, but it sounds like BJ and the Tories are using the fishing industry in the same way Trump used the coal mining industry. Tiny pocket of the economy, just symbolic.

Fishing rights have a real history in Britain's relationship with the EU, and though not hugely economically significant, they have always been politically incendiary. They were a major point of tension even when we were getting into the (then) EC in the early seventies, and have remained a sensitive matter, and also one of considerable political ego, which is about the only quality the current lot have left to hang on to.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on September 07, 2020, 07:11:19 AM
Quote from: Iota on September 06, 2020, 01:56:28 PM
It hardly seems like a miscalculation now that the government are introducing legislation on Wednesday (in the Internal Market Bill), effectively reneging on agreements made with the EU about the Northern Ireland Protocol and state aid. It seems more like a deliberate attempt to sabotage talks and make no deal an inevitable outcome.

Apart from the prospect of no deal being a frightening one, if it does happen any future negotiators with this UK government will presumably assume complete untrustworthiness in them, and adjust their behaviour accordingly, hardly an auspicious setting for forging a new future. : (

Must admit you have me there. Reneging on agreements is not a good look. The only conclusion I can draw is that the master plan - and I hope to God there is a master plan - does not include the EU in any shape or form.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Ten thumbs on September 07, 2020, 10:18:03 AM
Countries can exist on their own. All it takes is a little courage. Let us smile when we think of all the bad things we are leaving behind.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Herman on September 07, 2020, 10:22:23 AM
Quote from: Ten thumbs on September 07, 2020, 10:18:03 AM
Countries can exist on their own.

You mean like North Korea?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on September 08, 2020, 03:20:00 AM
Quote from: Ten thumbs on September 07, 2020, 10:18:03 AM
Countries can exist on their own. All it takes is a little courage. Let us smile when we think of all the bad things we are leaving behind.
Yes, I wonder what they are. Free travel? Effortless import/export of goods?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on September 08, 2020, 04:10:24 AM
Quote from: Irons on September 07, 2020, 07:11:19 AM
Must admit you have me there. Reneging on agreements is not a good look. The only conclusion I can draw is that the master plan - and I hope to God there is a master plan - does not include the EU in any shape or form.

The master plan is for Dominic and his friends to make some cash and for everyone else to get it in the neck, or die of COVID.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on September 09, 2020, 12:57:27 AM
A government minister interviewed on national news was more then happy to admit that it broke international law. I found this odd as the normal course would be with serious face claim black is white. I can only think the UK thinks the game is up, negotiations are going nowhere and Northern Ireland would still keep the UK shackled to the EU. Or more likely, this is a move on the chessboard of negotiations to put Barnier on the back foot. The EU have called the shots and set the agenda from day one and before going back to Cameron.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 09, 2020, 09:16:18 AM
I'm flabbergasted by the UK govt's latest move....

I think the only reason that Johnson signed the withdrawal agreement was the hope of continued access to the internal market on his terms. Now that seems unlikely and the benefits of the transition period have already been reaped, it is for the Tories too high a price to pay for Brexit. Signing the withdrawal agreement was the means to a political end.

For the EU the withdrawal agreement was always a settlement on pre-existing international obligations in relation to the peace in Northern Ireland and financial obligations the UK had already committed to.

What the UK does now, seems an attempt to blackmail to me. The exit bill will not be paid and the NI protocol will be breached.

A dangerous strategy that will fail and could blow up relations with the EU, Anglo-Irish relations and last but not least: peace in Northern Ireland.


Breaking the law over Brexit: how the UK is playing dirty in EU talks (https://theconversation.com/breaking-the-law-over-brexit-how-the-uk-is-playing-dirty-in-eu-talks-145867)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: J.A.W. on September 09, 2020, 10:03:55 AM
Why negotiate any longer with people who obviously cannot be trusted and who are prepared to break treaties they signed? A waste of time.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on September 09, 2020, 12:27:47 PM
A tweet in my Twitterfeed today brought up the point that one part of this Internal Market bill gives Westminster powers in areas devolved to the government of Scotland.

IOW, they are shafting both Northern Ireland and Scotland.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 09, 2020, 11:16:31 PM
Well, Johnson certainly got the attention of the world now..  8)


And in a statement yesterday, Pelosi said: "Whatever form it takes, Brexit cannot be allowed to imperil the Good Friday agreement, including the stability brought by the invisible and frictionless border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland.

The UK must respect the Northern Ireland protocol as signed with the EU to ensure the free flow of goods across the border.

If the UK violates that international treaty and Brexit undermines the Good Friday accord, there will be absolutely no chance of a US-UK trade agreement passing the Congress."


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/09/brexit-bill-northern-ireland-criticised-as-obvious-breach-of-international-law
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: J.A.W. on September 10, 2020, 08:44:25 AM
The latest developments: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54097320 (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54097320)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Herman on September 10, 2020, 11:07:23 PM
I have a hard time picturing the EU leveling a fine at the UK.

A) What are they going to do if Boris says "f*ck you, I'm not going to pay fines."

B) The minute the EU does this Putin is going to call Boris and do the sweet talk.

C) Boris and the Real Brexiteers (it's not a band) will use this (A) in the next election to boost Tory chauvinism, and Europe will have another rogue state on its hands.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 10, 2020, 11:34:33 PM
So the EU has already made clear any deal is off unless the UK govt backs down.

And it probably won't...

I always thought these negotiations would go out with a whimper, but is with a bang!  :o

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 10, 2020, 11:55:53 PM
Joke I read on the internet:

A Spanish annexation of Gibraltar would only breach the Treaty of Utrecht (1713) "in a very specific and limited way".

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on September 11, 2020, 08:10:52 AM
Quote from: Que on September 10, 2020, 11:55:53 PM
Joke I read on the internet:

A Spanish annexation of Gibraltar would only breach the Treaty of Utrecht (1713) "in a very specific and limited way".

Q

Heh.


Quote from: Que on September 09, 2020, 11:16:31 PM
Well, Johnson certainly got the attention of the world now..  8)


And in a statement yesterday, Pelosi said: "Whatever form it takes, Brexit cannot be allowed to imperil the Good Friday agreement, including the stability brought by the invisible and frictionless border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland.

The UK must respect the Northern Ireland protocol as signed with the EU to ensure the free flow of goods across the border.

If the UK violates that international treaty and Brexit undermines the Good Friday accord, there will be absolutely no chance of a US-UK trade agreement passing the Congress."


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/09/brexit-bill-northern-ireland-criticised-as-obvious-breach-of-international-law

I'm surprised that the Pelosi statement didn't get a bit more attention, but perhaps she's not really in a position to be so unequivocal with November elections coming up that may alter the balance of power in the House. If it was a non-negotiable US position, I'd have thought even the crass Johnson and his vacuity-burbling cohorts can't just ignore it. Though there's much in the labyrinthine maneuverings of poiltics that's not clear to me ..
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 14, 2020, 02:19:26 AM
Another Boris lie:

PM Johnson accuses EU of using threatening food blockade (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-johnson/pm-johnson-accuses-eu-of-using-threatening-food-blockade-idUSKBN262304) (Reuters)


So, the Tories want to paint the EU as "the enemy" real bad....
But I guess by now it's their only option to save their own skin, though is really sad to see to what level to UK has sunk to...

Do I hear a death knell ringing for the UK's political system, and possibly for the UK as a state?

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on September 14, 2020, 07:40:51 AM
Quote from: Que on September 14, 2020, 02:19:26 AM
Another Boris lie:

PM Johnson accuses EU of using threatening food blockade (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-johnson/pm-johnson-accuses-eu-of-using-threatening-food-blockade-idUSKBN262304) (Reuters)


So, the Tories want to paint the EU as "the enemy" real bad....
But I guess by now it's their only option to save their own skin, though is really sad to see to what level to UK has sunk to...

Do I hear a death knell ringing for the UK's political system, and possibly for the UK as a state?

Q

Why is it bad, they are. For political purposes from day one - and I did say it way back on this thread - the main aim of the EU is for the UK to come out of Brexit badly. I do not blame them for one minute, if the UK rides off into a prosperous sunset others will follow with probably Italy next.

So the EU take the moral high-ground? Yeah right! ::)

Like the idiot he often is Johnson knowing a deal is increasingly unlikely tries to wriggle out out of an agreement signed by him that ties him up like a kipper. He shouldn't have signed it in the first place! Anyway, I think it unlikely he will get the bill in it's present state through both houses. Just another episode in the delightful process of Brexit. I am sick of it! :'(
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on September 14, 2020, 07:59:17 AM
Quote from: Irons on September 14, 2020, 07:40:51 AM
Why is it bad, they are. For political purposes from day one - and I did say it way back on this thread - the main aim of the EU is for the UK to come out of Brexit badly. I do not blame them for one minute, if the UK rides off into a prosperous sunset others will follow with probably Italy next.

So the EU take the moral high-ground? Yeah right! ::)

Like the idiot he often is Johnson knowing a deal is increasingly unlikely tries to wriggle out out of an agreement signed by him that ties him up like a kipper. He shouldn't have signed it in the first place! Anyway, I think it unlikely he will get the bill in it's present state through both houses. Just another episode in the delightful process of Brexit. I am sick of it! :'(
I feel for you--particularly with everything else going on in the world these days!  :(

PD
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 14, 2020, 08:11:17 AM
Quote from: Irons on September 14, 2020, 07:40:51 AM
[...] the main aim of the EU is for the UK to come out of Brexit badly. I do not blame them for one minute, if the UK rides off into a prosperous sunset others will follow with probably Italy next.

[...]

I have to - strongly - disagree. And that assumption is the root of the whole lack of trust...
The aim of the EU is to minimise the economic damage by forming a new economic relationship with the UK that is as
close as possible without undermining the integrity of the internal market.

The EU doesn't have to make any effort whatsoever to make the UK "worse off"... The UK has already done that to itself by leaving the EU and deciding to leave the internal market as well.

Full economic benefits are only possible if you're part of the internal market - and a country can't be 
simultaneously "in" and "out". That should make any sense... at least that is what Theresa May discovered.
A country can however be outside of the EU,  but still be part of the internal market (without participating in the EU decision making process) - an option that the UK has rejected (after the referendum).

What the EU won't agree to is a "free rider" status for the UK. This would, given the size of the UK economy, severly disrupt the level playing field within the internal market. Apart from the fact that other countries might want the same - which is quite impossible, since it would mean the end of the internal market. If every member state would turn into an economic parasite, there wouldn't be anything to feed on...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on September 14, 2020, 09:53:20 AM
Quote from: Irons on September 14, 2020, 07:40:51 AM
Why is it bad, they are. For political purposes from day one - and I did say it way back on this thread - the main aim of the EU is for the UK to come out of Brexit badly. I do not blame them for one minute, if the UK rides off into a prosperous sunset others will follow with probably Italy next.

So the EU take the moral high-ground? Yeah right! ::)

Like the idiot he often is Johnson knowing a deal is increasingly unlikely tries to wriggle out out of an agreement signed by him that ties him up like a kipper. He shouldn't have signed it in the first place! Anyway, I think it unlikely he will get the bill in it's present state through both houses. Just another episode in the delightful process of Brexit. I am sick of it! :'(

Tied up like an oven ready chicken. They don't call us Perfidious Albion for nothing.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on September 15, 2020, 01:00:10 AM
Quote from: Que on September 14, 2020, 08:11:17 AM
I have to - strongly - disagree. And that assumption is the root of the whole lack of trust...
The aim of the EU is to minimise the economic damage by forming a new economic relationship with the UK that is as
close as possible without undermining the integrity of the internal market.

The EU doesn't have to make any effort whatsoever to make the UK "worse off"... The UK has already done that to itself by leaving the EU and deciding to leave the internal market as well.

Full economic benefits are only possible if you're part of the internal market - and a country can't be 
simultaneously "in" and "out". That should make any sense... at least that is what Theresa May discovered.
A country can however be outside of the EU,  but still be part of the internal market (without participating in the EU decision making process) - an option that the UK has rejected (after the referendum).

What the EU won't agree to is a "free rider" status for the UK. This would, given the size of the UK economy, severly disrupt the level playing field within the internal market. Apart from the fact that other countries might want the same - which is quite impossible, since it would mean the end of the internal market. If every member state would turn into an economic parasite, there wouldn't be anything to feed on...

Q

Good points well made, but everything you say is from the EU perspective. What the EU is prepared or not to do which would leave the UK as a vassal state much worse off in all respects then being a member of the Union. I regret us leaving but a disgrace that after over four years from a democratic vote the leaving process has not completed. Johnson has got many things wrong but insisting that the transition period ends in December, deal or no-deal, is right.

PS. How do you know Britain has made itself worse off by leaving the EU when it has yet to happen?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Madiel on September 15, 2020, 06:29:26 AM
Quote from: Irons on September 15, 2020, 01:00:10 AM
PS. How do you know Britain has made itself worse off by leaving the EU when it has yet to happen?

But you have already left the EU.

There is sometimes a deeply weird mindset about all this in the UK, that seems to involve not understanding that once you leave the EU your notional legal starting point is to be in exactly the same position as all the countries that have never been in the EU. All of the arrangements have to be negotiated. If you want an arrangement similar to Norway or Switzerland then you have to organise that with the EU, just like they have.

The thing is, you have already organised it. Some of the language out of the UK about all the glorious international post-Brexit deals tends to ignore that the very first deal has already been done. It was with the EU. And now the UK government seems to think that it's perfectly okay to break it's very first post-Brexit deal, as if the rest of the world wouldn't think, what's the point of negotiating a deal with these guys?

You're outside the EU now. You get to negotiate with the EU just the same way that Australia does. Only for various reasons, including the fact that you have a land border and a lot of strong trade links, the EU is probably a lot more interested in having trade deals with you. But they're hardly going to be interested in negotiating further deals with you when you tear the first one up.

This is not an "EU perspective". I'm not in the EU. This is an "anyone outside the UK who hasn't been drinking the kool-aid" perspective. This whole process within the UK seems to have been affected by some extremely weird notions, starting with how the UK Parliament acted as if its internal negotiations were the ones that mattered rather than just being internal squabbles on one side of the negotiating table. And now there seems to be a lack of recognition that Brexit has already started. You're in a transitional arrangement that the EU offered in an attempt to help everyone, not in an attempt to make the UK worse off. The EU has no reason to want the UK worse off. What the EU is doing is trying to respect the UK's wishes, which unfortunately is made nearly impossible by the UK's wishes being nearly incoherent and mutually exclusive.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 15, 2020, 06:49:19 AM
Quote from: Irons on September 15, 2020, 01:00:10 AM
What the EU is prepared or not to do which would leave the UK as a vassal state much worse off in all respects then being a member of the Union.

I agree that remaining in the internal market but leaving the EU and giving up a substantial influence in the decision making process, doesn't make much sense for a large country like the UK. But neither does leaving in the first place.

I don't agree that the term "vassal state" is an appropriate term for countries that bind themselves tho the rules of the internal market, like Norway, even though they are set by the EU. Firstly, "vassal states" are states that are sovereign in name only and are mainly allowed to run their internal affairs, while their external policies and defence are run by a foreign power. Secondly, the internal market rules does not cover all policies, non-economical ones are excluded. BTW treaties covering human rights etc. are not part of the EU. Thirdly, the system of the European Economic Area allowes for some deviations and derogations,  mainly in regards to the free movement of persons.

QuoteI regret us leaving but a disgrace that after over four years from a democratic vote the leaving process has not completed. Johnson has got many things wrong but insisting that the transition period ends in December, deal or no-deal, is right.

The cause of that is IMO due to a democratic vote that was based on wrong assumptions. Which resulted in a political process with a strategy that was out of touch with reality. Just look at how May struggled to retain all the benefits of being part of the internal market, while wanting to leave it. I am frankly surprised about the lack of knowledge in the UK among public and politicans alike about the economic and political mechanisms of the EU.

QuotePS. How do you know Britain has made itself worse off by leaving the EU when it has yet to happen?

I'm not an economist, but this is economic reality.
Free trade creates substantial economic gains, losing it will create substantial economic losses.
Even the most hardcore Brexiteers (now) admit that. But their story is that these lost trade opportunities will be replaced by other opportunities in trade with other countries and by new opportunities in developing the national economy that were previously impossible. By the admission of Brexiteers themselves this process of compensation could take as long as ten years (!) But the UK is now completely sovereign, which is according to them worth every penny.

Firstly, the argument of compensating trade deals denies the fact that trade relations are dominated by geographic proximity.
No trade deals with the US, Japan, Australia and New Zealand are going to make up for lost trade with your neighbours. Secondly, trade between the UK and a lot of those countries was already covered by a trade deal - with the EU.
Only if the terms of the bilateral deal the UK will negotiate are more beneficial than the existing (EU) deal, there would any amount of additional benefit. Extremely unlikely, if you ask me... Though this is indeed the claim of the UK govt. on the pending deal with Japan. I would have to see confirmation by independent experts to believe it. And even then, the terms of
a deal are not decisive on the actual amount of trade that will be conducted. The UK outside of the EU could possibly be less attractive for Japanese companies to do businesses with.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on September 15, 2020, 07:22:44 AM
Quote from: Madiel on September 15, 2020, 06:29:26 AM
But you have already left the EU.



We most certainly have not.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 15, 2020, 07:37:03 AM
Quote from: Irons on September 15, 2020, 07:22:44 AM
We most certainly have not.

The UK is no longer a member state,  but due the transition period  it is still part of the internal market.
It has, temporarily, a status similar to that of Norway, if you like.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on September 15, 2020, 07:57:22 AM
Quote from: Que on September 15, 2020, 06:49:19 AM




The cause of that is IMO due to a democratic vote that was based on wrong assumptions. Which resulted in a political process with a strategy that was out of touch with reality. Just look at how May struggled to retain all the benefits of being part of the internal market, while wanting to leave it. I am frankly surprised about the lack of knowledge in the UK among public and politicans alike about the economic and political mechanisms of the EU.



Q

You talk a lot of sense but I read the above with open-mouthed astonishment. Who are you, Barnier or whoever to question the ability of the British public to understand an issue as well as you can? Sanctimonious at it's most blatant. I'm done! Until the next twist in the torturous path called Brexit.  :o
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 15, 2020, 08:23:48 AM
Quote from: Irons on September 15, 2020, 07:57:22 AM
You talk a lot of sense but I read the above with open-mouthed astonishment. Who are you, Barnier or whoever to question the ability of the British public to understand an issue as well as you can? Sanctimonious at it's most blatant. I'm done! Until the next twist in the torturous path called Brexit.  :o

If you're right then generally speaking UK voters and polictians knew exactly what they were getting into (or out of).

Nothing I've read in the run up to the referendum and thereafter indicates anything that comes close. On the contray.
Yes, there are actually a lot of superb experts on the EU in the UK, but they were conveniently ignored and dismissed as "saboteurs" and "friends of the EU". Along with the House of Lords, the Supreme Court and senior diplomats and other senior civil servants. Who needs experts?

Anyway, it is all water under the bridge - our little post mortem of Brexit.
Brexit will soon be over, the economic and political fall out will follow.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Madiel on September 15, 2020, 02:04:05 PM
Quote from: Irons on September 15, 2020, 07:22:44 AM
We most certainly have not.

A little bit of Google and Wikipedia will tell you that you certainly have, and the fact that you don't even know it (and in fact vehemently DENY it) speaks volumes as to how this process has been handled.

There's still talk about whether to have "no deal Brexit" at the end of the year, when you've already had the Brexit part, and the question is whether you'll have a deal with the EU or tear up the deal you already have.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Herman on September 17, 2020, 01:00:06 AM
The "EU" which the UK has not left, according to some Britons, probably is not the EU as a real thing, but rather a state of mind, a frustrating thing in which you have to cooperate and communicate instead of just blissfully toss one's toys against the wall.

The EU is, in short, being a responsible adult, and that is what Brexit appears to be about.

Having one's cake and eat it too.

Master of one's domain.

Without consequences, obviously.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 20, 2020, 12:37:28 AM
Brexit: What just happened and what comes next, explained (https://www.politico.eu/article/uks-latest-brexit-fight-with-the-eu-explained/) (Politico)


(https://g8fip1kplyr33r3krz5b97d1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Kal-econ-cartoon-9-18-2020synd-1024x667.jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Todd on September 20, 2020, 05:39:55 AM
Wow, things are serious.  Mrs George Clooney did something: Brexit: Amal Clooney quits government envoy role over law break plan (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54210658)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Madiel on September 20, 2020, 07:34:12 AM
You do realise she was a prominent international lawyer before she was ever a Clooney? Treating her as nothing more than an appendage to her husband is rank sexism.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Todd on September 20, 2020, 07:54:54 AM
Good stuff.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Herman on September 20, 2020, 11:50:10 AM
Quote from: Madiel on September 20, 2020, 07:34:12 AM
You do realise she was a prominent international lawyer before she was ever a Clooney? Treating her as nothing more than an appendage to her husband is rank sexism.

What do you expect from a troll?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Madiel on September 20, 2020, 02:38:24 PM
Quote from: Herman on September 20, 2020, 11:50:10 AM
What do you expect from a troll?

Yes, I know. I was already tired and cranky and so I fed it after midnight.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: accmacmus on September 27, 2020, 03:25:48 PM
Would it be a proper negotiating round (9th) without yours truly announcing it here?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ei9PZJuXYAADTqA?format=jpg&name=large) (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ei9PZJuXYAADTqA?format=jpg&name=large)

No Twitter statements from neither Barnier (EU negotiator) nor Frost (UK negotiator).

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: accmacmus on October 01, 2020, 03:46:19 AM
Statement from the EU Head of Commission, Ursula von der Leyen:

Good morning,
    as you know we have invited our British friends to remove the problematic parts of their draft Internal Market Bill by the end of September. This draft bill is — by its very nature — a breach of the obligation of good faith laid down in the Withdrawal Agreement. Moreover, if adopted as is, it will be in full contradiction to the Protocol of Ireland and Northern Ireland.
The deadline lapsed yesterday, the problematic provisions have not been removed, therefore this morning the commission has decided to send a letter of formal notice to the UK Government. This is the first step in an Infringement Procedure. The letter invites the UK Government to send its observation within a month.
And beside this, the Commission will continue to work hard to the full and timely implementation of the withdrawal agreement. We stand by our commitment. Thank you.


https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1311592855014694913

Reply by UK Government spokesman:

We will respond to the letter in due course. We have clearly set out our reasons for introducing the measures related to the Northern Ireland Protocol. We need to create a legal safety net to protect the integrity of the UK's internal market, ensure ministers can always deliver on their obligations to Northern Ireland and protect the gains from the peace process.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Madiel on October 01, 2020, 04:18:12 AM
Honestly, it seems more and more clear that parts of the UK government didn't understand what they agreed to.

And didn't grapple with the inevitable contradictions from simultaneously trying to separate the UK from the EU and trying to keep the 2 parts of Ireland together as per the Good Friday Agreements.

Sure, the union is potentially under threat. It's under threat because an English movement for Brexit was able to completely steamroll the wants and needs of other parts of the UK. And it's a mess.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 07, 2020, 11:25:43 AM
It's a slapstick... (Bloomberg)


U.K. Plans to Quit Brexit Talks If No Deal Clear Next Week (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-07/uk-plans-to-quit-brexit-trade-talks-if-no-deal-seen-by-oct-15)


EU Ready to Call Johnson Bluff, Betting He Won't Quit Talks (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-06/eu-ready-to-call-johnson-s-bluff-betting-he-won-t-quit-talks)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Herman on October 07, 2020, 12:04:23 PM
Quote from: Madiel on October 01, 2020, 04:18:12 AM
Honestly, it seems more and more clear that parts of the UK government didn't understand what they agreed to.


Part of the confusion may be Johnson et al had not expected the British would be so stupid as to give Brexit a majority vote.

Same as with Trump, who looked really stupefied on election night 2016. He had not seriously meant to become president.

You hear this, too, in Johnson saying a PM's pay is insufficient to feed and educatie all of his children. He hadn't given it any thought.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 17, 2020, 11:49:35 PM
Boris Johnson tells UK: prepare for a no-deal Brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/16/boris-johnson-tells-uk-prepare-for-a-no-deal-brexit)

The more Johnson tells the UK that there will be no deal and the EU that the negotiations are over, the more it is apparent that he wants and needs a deal.

And there will be a deal... IMO.

The French resistance to a compromise on fisheries will be paid off with a preferential treatment of existing fishing rights in the Channel. The Dutch and Danish, who fish in other UK waters, will bleed for it. As in any fight, the big boys will get what they want...

On the debate on the "level playing field" (competition on equal terms), the UK will have to move.... The EU will never agree to free trade other than on an guaranteed equal footing.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Madiel on October 18, 2020, 02:11:05 AM
Quote from: Herman on October 07, 2020, 12:04:23 PM
Part of the confusion may be Johnson et al had not expected the British would be so stupid as to give Brexit a majority vote.

They had plenty of time after that.

And then derailed Theresa May. Who was given the traditional female job in politics of getting the leadership when none of the men wanted to take the poison.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 21, 2020, 12:49:08 PM
The endgame has finally begun:

UK, EU hint at Brexit talks breakthrough (https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-eu-hint-at-brexit-talks-breakthrough/) (Politico)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 24, 2020, 01:45:10 AM
With the Brexit walkout and sulk over, is the UK on the home straight for a deal? (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/24/brexit-walkout-sulk-over-prospects-of-deal)

"After a week of theatrics, the gaps are still significant and the deal at the end remains thin"

Boris is going to do a deal... reluctantly, but he'll have to in order to avoid an economic crash.

But I think the important message here is that under the deal that is now being negotiated, the UK will still leave the internal market and is predicted to face a 3,5% decline in GDP over ten years as a consequence.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 26, 2020, 06:30:21 AM
Johnson will wait for US election result before no-deal Brexit decision

Ivan Rogers, former UK ambassador to the EU, says prime minister will think 'history was going his way' if Donald Trump is re-elected (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/24/johnson-will-wait-for-us-election-result-before-no-deal-brexit-decision)

Not surprising, but still shocking...

Because, if true... and I find it very plausible and the former ambassador of the UK to the EU a credible source...

... it shows that Johnson doesn't really want a deal with the EU, and is an incredible idiot for thinking that he could pull off a no-deal if only his "buddy" (not) Trumps stays in power.

Once at Trump's mercy, the UK would in fact be scr%wed many times over, giving the term "special relationship" an entirely different meaning altogether.  ???

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: accmacmus on October 26, 2020, 06:28:19 PM
Quote from: Que on October 26, 2020, 06:30:21 AM
Because, if true... and I find it very plausible and the former ambassador of the UK to the EU a credible source...
Everything Ivan Rogers predicted turned out to become true, really a remarkable person.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 29, 2020, 12:40:28 AM
Amidst the doom and gloom, there is some lighter stuff as well...

Brexit: Department for International Trade in soy sauce row after Great British Bake Off claim (https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-department-for-international-trade-in-soy-sauce-row-after-great-british-bake-off-claim-12116799)

The recent Anglo-Japanese trade deal was heralded as delivering tariff free import of soy sauce from Japan.

But... as it turned out:
1. The import of soy sauce from Japan is already free of tariffs, due to the EU-Japan trade deal.
2. Most soy sauce imported into the UK, is produced in and imported from the Netherlands. Whether that will stay free from tariffs, depends on a possible trade deal with the EU.

What this illustrates is that the idea that Brexit would somehow improve the UK's position in international trade, is an illusion.
All expert comments I've read conclude that the Aglo-Japanese trade deal merely retains the staus quo.
Considering the UK's smaller economic and political leverage, that seems the optimal outcome.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: MusicTurner on October 29, 2020, 12:57:27 AM
On an extremely narrow scale, I'm wondering whether customs fees will really be reintroduced in 2021 regarding the EU, making CD buying from the many fine UK sources much more expensive in the future. Or whether they'll somehow continue previous trade options to the continent. I'm very glad that I have stocked up this year from the many UK sales campaigns, including the recent special Dutton and Chandos sales of rare UK repertoire, reducing my wish list to now around 17 items totally ... good that we have dealers such as JPC etc. on the continent too though.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on October 29, 2020, 01:15:50 AM
Quote from: MusicTurner on October 29, 2020, 12:57:27 AM
On an extremely narrow scale, I'm wondering whether customs fees will really be reintroduced in 2021 regarding the EU, making CD buying from the many fine UK sources much more expensive in the future. Or whether they'll somehow continue previous trade options to the continent. I'm very glad that I have stocked up this year from the many UK sales campaigns, including the recent special Dutton and Chandos sales of rare UK repertoire, reducing my wish list to now around 17 items totally ... good that we have dealers such as JPC etc. on the continent too though.

Extensive research suggests that you live in Denmark  ;D

Any customs fees will impact here as well. I buy quite a lot from European dealers (makes me sound like a drug dealer), not least from Fuga in Helsinki etc. JPC as well of course.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: J.A.W. on October 29, 2020, 04:41:03 AM
All non-private seller prices on EU sites (like EU Amazon sites) include VAT when the items are sold to EU residents. In the current situation nothing will change until December 31, 2020, when the UK leaves the single market and the customs union. As of January 1, 2021, this situation changes (unless the EU and UK strike a deal that leaves the current VAT regulations intact) and the UK will become a so-called "third country" for EU customers; VAT will then be payable for items whose value exceeds 22 euros and import duty for items with a value exceeding 150 euros.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on October 29, 2020, 01:08:41 PM
Quote from: Que on October 29, 2020, 12:40:28 AM
Amidst the doom and gloom, there is some lighter stuff as well...

Brexit: Department for International Trade in soy sauce row after Great British Bake Off claim (https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-department-for-international-trade-in-soy-sauce-row-after-great-british-bake-off-claim-12116799)

The recent Anglo-Japanese trade deal was heralded as delivering tariff free import of soy sauce from Japan.

But... as it turned out:
1. The import of soy sauce from Japan is already free of tariffs, due to the EU-Japan trade deal.
2. Most soy sauce imported into the UK, is produced in and imported from the Netherlands. Whether that will stay free from tariffs, depends on a possible trade deal with the EU.

What this illustrates is that the idea that Brexit would somehow improve the UK's position in international trade, is an illusion.
All expert comments I've read conclude that the Aglo-Japanese trade deal merely retains the staus quo.
Considering the UK's smaller economic and political leverage, that seems the optimal outcome.

Q
Que,  as a side-note, when you say "produced" does that equal to basically "bottled in the Netherlands but made elsewhere...like Japan"?  I've read about some specialty/higher quality soy sauces made in Japan, but not available locally...possibly available from specialty businesses online.  Just curious here.  As a comparison, here in the States, I've seen bottles of olive oil listing (if I'm remembering correctly) things like "product of" but the sources of the olive oil are from multiple countries with sketchy companies not giving much info, period.

PD
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 29, 2020, 01:48:36 PM
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on October 29, 2020, 01:08:41 PM
Que,  as a side-note, when you say "produced" does that equal to basically "bottled in the Netherlands but made elsewhere...like Japan"?  I've read about some specialty/higher quality soy sauces made in Japan, but not available locally...possibly available from specialty businesses online.  Just curious here.  As a comparison, here in the States, I've seen bottles of olive oil listing (if I'm remembering correctly) things like "product of" but the sources of the olive oil are from multiple countries with sketchy companies not giving much info, period.

PD

The most popular brand is Kikkoman, which is a Japanese brand but they have a factory in he Netherlands.
The sauce is produced with soy from Brazil, Canada and the US,  wheat from Germany and water and salt ftom the Netherlands. A prime example of contemporary international economic relations. :)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/28/dfids-brexit-soy-sauce-price-cut-claim-prompts-backlash-bake-off

British Brexiteers keep talking about "German carmakers".... while these German companies have British share holders, own British car brands, produce cars in Britsh plants with British workers and use parts from British suppliers.

They are basically shooting themselves in the foot, and think this enables them to run a marathon... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on October 29, 2020, 07:40:17 PM
Kikkoman is a big brand here in the States. If I remember I'll look tomorrow to see where they produce it for the American market (Friday is my day for groceries.)

Those Brexiteers on German cars sound a lot like some Americans on Japanese cars a few years back. And the situation was exactly the same.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 30, 2020, 12:08:34 AM
I trust all Brexiteers would want to drive the only car brand that is exclusively British in ownership and production:

(https://cdn-akbln.nitrocdn.com/DryqjYsLisdxrXeToTATDDprTjZHMfnX/assets/static/optimized/rev-34ab4dd/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Morgan.jpg)

A Morgan sports car....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Madiel on October 30, 2020, 04:15:41 AM
Quote from: J.A.W. on October 29, 2020, 04:41:03 AM
All non-private seller prices on EU sites (like EU Amazon sites) include VAT when the items are sold to EU residents. In the current situation nothing will change until December 31, 2020, when the UK leaves the single market and the customs union. As of January 1, 2021, this situation changes (unless the EU and UK strike a deal that leaves the current VAT regulations intact) and the UK will become a so-called "third country" for EU customers; VAT will then be payable for items whose value exceeds 22 euros and import duty for items with a value exceeding 150 euros.

I'm in Australia. I don't pay VAT precisely because I'm not in the EU (and many UK sites recognise this). I didn't pay any taxes at all until Australian law changed to impose our VAT equivalent on lower-cost goods coming in from overseas. But I believe VAT is 20%, whereas our equivalent is only 10%.

Whether costs will be affected in practice depends on whether one's internal goods taxes are higher or lower than one's import duties.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: accmacmus on October 30, 2020, 07:08:46 PM
Mods asleep, post music duels. Today a poem by Gabriello Chiabrera, Damigella tutta bella (translation (https://tenet.nyc/english-uno-one), Ctrl+F for «damigella»), set into music by two renaissance musicians, Claudio Monteverdi ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5RBEBVRO5E ) and Vincenzo Calestani ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEjZfC8dWjM ). 

The most anodyne message (https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1322153111008481287) from Mr. Barnier, EU chief negotiatior: «After 7 days of intensive negotiations in London, talks continue with David Frost and his team in Brussels in full respect of the national health measures #COVID19 Working hard for an agreement. Much remains to be done».

Sixty-one days until transition period ends, in this timeframe the deal has to be agreed, ratified by the two Parliament (UK/EU) and finally implemented.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 31, 2020, 01:13:36 AM
Interesting read on Reuters:

Brexit goes down to the line: Deal, no-deal or fudge? (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-scenarios-idUSKBN27F1EY)

Particularly the possible prospect of a "fudge" - a partial deal on a limited number of agreed topics - was new to me.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 13, 2020, 02:25:54 AM
From the website of the London School of Economics and Political Science:

The UK will never be ready for Brexit (https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/11/13/the-uk-will-never-be-ready-for-brexit/)

Well, ready or not, the transition period is ending this year and there is only one week left to come to an trade agreement that could be sealed at the EU summit on November 19th.

Meanwhile, Boris Johnson is considering his unattractive options  (political or economic suicide?) and has the prospect of Scottish independence reached a stable and slowly increasing majority in the polls.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: accmacmus on November 13, 2020, 08:24:33 AM
Meanwhile, the EU negotiatior

(https://i.imgur.com/eHsH39s.png)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André Le Nôtre on November 13, 2020, 07:12:54 PM
(https://www.theflagshop.co.uk/media/catalog/product/cache/1/thumbnail/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/e/u/eu-scotland-flag-std.jpg)

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 13, 2020, 11:18:18 PM
Quote from: accmacmus on November 13, 2020, 08:24:33 AM
Meanwhile, the EU negotiatior

(https://i.imgur.com/eHsH39s.png)

Yes...  :D

He hints at the condition of the EU that a trade deal won't distort fair competition between UK and EU companies.

The UK however, wants access to the European market without the regulatory ties that EU member states and companies are subjected to. It basically wants to turn a mutually beneficial trade relationship that is based on reciprocity into a trade relationship that creates advantages for British businesses to the detriment of their EU competitors.

"No rules from Brussels", but free trade access. Sounds like a great "Vote Leave" slogan, but in the real world it is not going to happen... The EU will rather cut its (considerable) losses than going down that road....

One week to go till the EU summit on the 19th, the clock is ticking.... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 13, 2020, 11:27:28 PM
Quote from: André Le Nôtre on November 13, 2020, 07:12:54 PM
(https://www.theflagshop.co.uk/media/catalog/product/cache/1/thumbnail/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/e/u/eu-scotland-flag-std.jpg)

I wonder if the increased support for Scottish independence triggered by Brexit, in combination with the pandemic, has now  reached a "point of no return"? What we can see is that the doubters of the last referendum, the voters of the middle ground who are not ardent SNP supporters are gradually embracing independence as a reasonable and safe way forward instead of an extreme and risky choice. That seems like a watershed to me...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on November 14, 2020, 11:51:10 AM
Quote from: accmacmus on November 13, 2020, 08:24:33 AM
Meanwhile, the EU negotiatior

(https://i.imgur.com/eHsH39s.png)

:D


Quote from: Que on November 13, 2020, 11:27:28 PM
I wonder if the increased support for Scottish independence triggered by Brexit, in combination with the pandemic, has now  reached a "point of no return"? What we can see is that the doubters of the last referendum, the voters of the middle ground who are not ardent SNP supporters are gradually embracing independence as a reasonable and safe way forward instead of an extreme and risky choice. That seems like a watershed to me...

Q

No doubt, Brexit is a big cannon in the SNP arsenal, have no idea whether it will be enough to push them over the line.

Generally this is a very bleak time for those of us hoping for the consolation prize of a UK - EU deal to be done. I don't know if the departure of Cummings and Lee Cain from No.10 will have any impact on it, but I suspect not. Not long to wait to find out. Happy days .. :(
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Madiel on November 14, 2020, 06:49:41 PM
Quote from: Que on November 13, 2020, 11:27:28 PM
I wonder if the increased support for Scottish independence triggered by Brexit, in combination with the pandemic, has now  reached a "point of no return"? What we can see is that the doubters of the last referendum, the voters of the middle ground who are not ardent SNP supporters are gradually embracing independence as a reasonable and safe way forward instead of an extreme and risky choice. That seems like a watershed to me...

Q

It seems inevitable that there will be a decent number of Scottish voters who see Brexit as a complete betrayal of what they were promised in return for voting No to independence last time. And it also seems to me that the idea that Scotland had its chance and can't have another referendum won't wash. The rules have changed so fundamentally since the previous referendum... and essentially they've been changed by the English.

I really do wonder what Brexit is going to do to the UK, with both Scotland and Northern Ireland not wanting it to happen.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 16, 2020, 11:33:56 PM
Scottish fishers planning to land and sell their fish in Northern Ireland, so it can be exported within the EU without tariffs and paperwork.

Brexit: Will Scottish fishing boats move to Northern Ireland? (https://www.bbc.com/news/54798942)

Smart, but bad for Scotland...
And we are going to see more of this after the transition period: businesses will conduct their activities how and where it is best for them... they are not interested in political monologues about "sovereignty".

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Madiel on November 17, 2020, 12:56:39 AM
Quote from: Que on November 16, 2020, 11:33:56 PM
Scottish fishers planning to land and sell their fish in Northern Ireland, so it can be exported within the EU without tariffs and paperwork.

Brexit: Will Scottish fishing boats move to Northern Ireland? (https://www.bbc.com/news/54798942)

Smart, but bad for Scotland...
And we are going to see more of this after the transition period: businesses will conduct their activities how and where it is best for them... they are not interested in political monologues about "sovereignty".

Q

Well yes. I happen to know, for example, that there are some Australian exports that currently arrive into the EU in England, but which are ultimately destined for the continent. And so next year those exporters are going to change their shipping patterns so that their goods go direct to the continent. It's inevitable that businesses will make that kind of assessment and change their behaviour to minimise cost and paperwork.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on November 17, 2020, 03:22:32 AM
Quote from: Madiel on November 17, 2020, 12:56:39 AM
Well yes. I happen to know, for example, that there are some Australian exports that currently arrive into the EU in England, but which are ultimately destined for the continent. And so next year those exporters are going to change their shipping patterns so that their goods go direct to the continent. It's inevitable that businesses will make that kind of assessment and change their behaviour to minimise cost and paperwork.
Do you know why they have currently been going to England vs. elsewhere?  Just curious.

PD
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Madiel on November 17, 2020, 03:44:09 AM
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on November 17, 2020, 03:22:32 AM
Do you know why they have currently been going to England vs. elsewhere?  Just curious.

PD

No, not really. Maybe some of the product is meant for the UK and offloaded there. Or maybe it's just some other convenience factor. All I know for certain is that there are exporters who won't want the product counted as going to the UK once the UK is no longer counted as part of the EU for trade purposes (after 31 December).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: accmacmus on November 19, 2020, 07:07:14 AM
How do you say Oh merde! in English?

(https://i.imgur.com/ww0wH8i.png)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on November 19, 2020, 11:35:17 AM
Quote from: accmacmus on November 19, 2020, 07:07:14 AM
How do you say Oh merde! in English?

Brexit?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on November 19, 2020, 03:14:45 PM
Quote from: Florestan on November 19, 2020, 11:35:17 AM
Brexit?

You mean brexshit, yes?  :D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 19, 2020, 10:51:09 PM
The Dutch banking group ABN-AMRO has calculated that even if the deal that is now being negotiated will go through, it will result in a €4.5 bilion hit on Dutch GDP and a loss of 17.700 jobs.

In a no deal situation the damage to the Dutch economy is €17.5 billion and the loss of 70.000 jobs.

This is just sheer and utter madness....  ???

Q

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 23, 2020, 03:31:49 AM
UK should not sign EU deal at any price, says Sunak (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/22/uk-should-not-sign-eu-deal-at-any-price-says-sunak)

Interestingly, some EU member states have expressed the same sentiment....

Which makes a scenario possible in which a negotiated deal could be rejected by either British politics or one or more EU member states.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on November 23, 2020, 03:58:05 AM
It seems to me that the overall tenor of remarks emerging from Downing St, including the one from the consistently unpalatable Johnson the other day (https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-keeps-talking-with-eu-but-says-uk-should-prepare-for-no-deal/ (https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-keeps-talking-with-eu-but-says-uk-should-prepare-for-no-deal/)), are attempting to prepare us for a no deal already privately decided on by the UK goverment.

But it's a situation so fraught with uncertainty and brinkmanship to which Que's link above only adds, that any guess is a wild one at the moment, and I would very much like to be wrong.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 27, 2020, 09:04:35 AM
Brexit: Face-to-face trade talks to resume in London (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-55090861)



What can I say?

Michel Barnier wants to close this off with a success before he retires .
The EU wants to avoid significant economic fall out and wants happy fishermen.

But the UK doesn't want to let go of its Brexit fantasy.... after all: what was it all for, then?  ::)

Gooooood question......  ???
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on November 28, 2020, 08:29:17 AM
I'm looking forward to all the fish that will no longer be going to the EU appearing in our shops at a reasonable price. :P
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 01, 2020, 03:00:42 AM
Can't imagine anyone who is still following this, not feeling absolutely exasperated.... ::)

5 signs this is the real Brexit crunch (and 4 that it isn't) (https://www.politico.eu/article/five-signs-this-is-the-real-brexit-crunch-and-four-that-it-isnt/) (Politico)

My personal guess: a deal at the 11th hour which will first be cause for relief, and then dissapointment because it will be very thin.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Madiel on December 01, 2020, 03:05:43 AM
Quote from: Que on December 01, 2020, 03:00:42 AM
Can't imagine anyone who is still following this, not feeling absolutely exasperated.... ::)


I'm exasperated because Australia wants to sort out aspects of its own trade arrangements with the EU and the UK, and can't get their attention. They're too busy stuffing around with each other with only 4 weeks to go.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on December 03, 2020, 10:23:32 AM
Quote from: Que on December 01, 2020, 03:00:42 AM
Can't imagine anyone who is still following this, not feeling absolutely exasperated.... ::)

5 signs this is the real Brexit crunch (and 4 that it isn't) (https://www.politico.eu/article/five-signs-this-is-the-real-brexit-crunch-and-four-that-it-isnt/) (Politico)


And in the middle of it all, the Internal Market Bill reappears on stage like a pantomime baddie, with a vote on it in the Commons next week.
The government is pledging to reinsert the contentious law-breaking clauses that caused so much anger back in September - and use the threat of them as another bargaining chip no doubt - then presumably if a deal is struck they'll be dropped.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55171563
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 03, 2020, 10:32:14 AM
Something is likely to be stitched together at the last moment - but this was always the case.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Madiel on December 03, 2020, 11:30:52 AM
Quote from: Iota on December 03, 2020, 10:23:32 AM

And in the middle of it all, the Internal Market Bill reappears on stage like a pantomime baddie, with a vote on it in the Commons next week.
The government is pledging to reinsert the contentious law-breaking clauses that caused so much anger back in September - and use the threat of them as another bargaining chip no doubt - then presumably if a deal is struck they'll be dropped.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55171563

Groan. When creating incentives to make a new deal, there's nothing quite like breaching the deals you already have made.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 05, 2020, 05:32:01 AM
What is happening in the Brexit talks? (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/04/what-is-happening-in-the-brexit-talks-trade-security-negotiations-eu-uk)

Analysis: It is make or break for trade and security negotiations as the EU and UK enter perhaps final 48 hours

Major developments:
- Frost and Barnier are out, and negotiations have been taken over by Johnson and Von der Leyen
- A natural deadline of Monday morning seems to have been set by the reintroduction of the much disputed Internal market bill before the House of Commons on Tuesday
- France, Italy, Denmark, Belgium and the Netherlands are apprehensive on the leeway the UK might have been given on fair competition/"level playing field".  France has suggested that a veto is a viable option if it is not satisfied with a negotiated deal.

My own takaway: the fact that the UK hasn't been a reliable and constructive negotiating partner, might do it in... It seems that in many European capitals a deal isn't seen as possible or even desirable anymore. Only the European Commission is still very much focused on getting a deal.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 05, 2020, 06:55:53 AM
After all these years of critical, make or break days, is it finally coming to an end? :-\
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 08, 2020, 06:52:36 AM
Lessons From Brexit on How (Not) to Negotiate (https://hbr.org/2020/12/lessons-from-brexit-on-how-not-to-negotiate) (Harvard Business Review)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on December 09, 2020, 08:43:01 PM
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/d6faf7bc149943f7ea7d2b3736d9648cceb5bcb4/0_0_3072_1844/master/3072.jpg?width=700&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=469ede1fd6a7a8effbe3b3fc195532fb)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 10, 2020, 12:44:27 AM
It seems the new dealine is now Sunday.... ::)

If a deal is still struck, it would have to be applied provisionally - pending ratification by the national parliaments of the member states. An emergency session of the European Parliament is pencilled in between Christmas and New Year.

Of the major European leaders, only Angela Merkel has some patience left and is still keen to avoid the economic and geopolitical fall out of a no-deal. Bless her!

Unlike Macron, she isn't interested in fish and is willing to compromise on that.

She has made very clear that her main problem is that the British refuse to agree on a mechanism that enables the EU to respond to future UK regulatory divergences that would undermine fair competition.

And she is right, because that is exactly what the Brexiteers in the UK are aiming for. Their main possibility to beef up the UK economy will be to undercut the EU on the European and global market. Without that there wil only be economic downside and no upside to Brexit...

I guess they thought the "continentals" would actually buy into such an onesided arrangement?  ::)

Boris is now caught between a rock and a hard place: both options will mean severe damage to the UK economy and the end of his political career...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on December 10, 2020, 07:38:23 AM
Tell me, Que. What do you think the EU's vision for a working relationship with the UK post Brexit is? I mean, here we are, just a stone's throw away, a major military and nuclear power. The EU has kept the peace in Europe, we're not part of it any more.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 10, 2020, 07:51:55 AM
I don't see why the UK should be spending money on defending the EU countries against Russia; 27 of them ought to be able to manage it themselves. I can see the rationale behind taking a certain amount of action in places like Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria though, it keeps the troops experienced and toughened up and ensures the equipment and procedures are properly tested.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on December 10, 2020, 07:56:26 AM
I think the EU would want to avoid making an enemy of the UK, if they did that the EU's enemies would say that the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

But to not make an enemy of the UK, the EU has to be sure that the economy here doesn't fail. If it did, popular sentiment would blame it on the EU. And don't forget, we already have an Alt-Right populist government in power, and no serious opposition.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 10, 2020, 08:17:12 AM
Military enmity sounds rather unlikely though, even if people like to moan about the European Court. And trade with Russia is fine, as with China, just with appropriate caution in areas like potentially spying technology.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 10, 2020, 09:23:10 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on December 10, 2020, 07:38:23 AM
Tell me, Que. What do you think the EU's vision for a working relationship with the UK post Brexit is? I mean, here we are, just a stone's throw away, a major military and nuclear power. The EU has kept the peace in Europe, we're not part of it any more.

The EU will try to establish a constructive working relationship with the UK whenever it can and when this would be in its best interest.
Particularly in security & defence. Another (political) priority is fishing.

If it ends up with a no deal, I'll bet that separate treaties on those topics will be a top priority for the EU.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on December 10, 2020, 09:42:45 AM
Quote from: Que on December 10, 2020, 09:23:10 AM
The EU will try to establish a constructive working relationship with the UK whenever it can and when this would be in its best interest.


And does its best interests mean working to make things as hard as possible for the UK to discourage other net contributor countries from exiting?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 10, 2020, 09:47:51 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on December 10, 2020, 09:42:45 AM
And does its best interests mean working to make things as hard as possible for the UK to discourage other net contributor countries from exiting?

I'm sorry to brake this to you, but this is a myth kept alive by anti-EU populists in the UK and other member states.

My previous response when this came up:

Quote from: Que on September 14, 2020, 08:11:17 AM
I have to - strongly - disagree. And that assumption is the root of the whole lack of trust...
The aim of the EU is to minimise the economic damage by forming a new economic relationship with the UK that is as
close as possible without undermining the integrity of the internal market.

The EU doesn't have to make any effort whatsoever to make the UK "worse off"... The UK has already done that to itself by leaving the EU and deciding to leave the internal market as well.

Full economic benefits are only possible if you're part of the internal market - and a country can't be 
simultaneously "in" and "out". That should make any sense... at least that is what Theresa May discovered.
A country can however be outside of the EU, but still be part of the internal market (without participating in the EU decision making process) - an option that the UK has rejected (after the referendum).

What the EU won't agree to is a "free rider" status for the UK. This would, given the size of the UK economy, severly disrupt the level playing field within the internal market. Apart from the fact that other countries might want the same - which is quite impossible, since it would mean the end of the internal market. If every member state would turn into an economic parasite, there wouldn't be anything to feed on...

Of course the UK was a net contributor - but let's not go overboard: the UK had a huge rebate negotiated by Thatcher.
In absolute numbers, the UK came after Germany, France and Italy. To put this in perspective: the economic benefits of membership for these large economies is much bigger than any net contribution they make...
Nobody needs to discourage them to leave the EU: leaving just doesn't make any economic sense whatsoever! It's a lose-lose situation.

In others words: no country would want to leave the EU unless it wants to purposely inflict damage to its economy for some higher end, like the British. Which is absolutely fine if that's what the choice is, dont get me wrong.

But the "Britain is punished to set an example" myth seems to sound a lot more attractive than: "we made a stupid choice, and stuck with it to the extreme and till the bitter end". Destroying a mutually beneficial relationship in the name of self-determination and then blaming the EU for not agreeing to a new relationship that is not in its best interest, is rather peculiar to say the least.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 10, 2020, 09:53:37 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on December 10, 2020, 09:42:45 AM
And does its best interests mean working to make things as hard as possible for the UK to discourage other net contributor countries from exiting?

Wouldn't another net contributor country thinking they might want to leave realise that strategy and veto it?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 11, 2020, 09:52:51 AM

UK and EU say no-deal Brexit is now most likely outcome
(https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/11/no-deal-brexit-likeliest-ursula-von-der-leyen-eu-leaders)

No-deal Brexit: markets brace for big hit to UK company shares and sterling (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/dec/11/no-deal-brexit-bank-of-england-warns-of-market-instability-and-financial-disruption)

Iceberg, right ahead.....


https://youtube.com/v/bYOn3-PhA9c
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 12, 2020, 02:59:59 AM
https://youtube.com/v/YaRfGzee6EU
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Madiel on December 12, 2020, 03:29:08 AM
Quote from: Que on December 12, 2020, 02:59:59 AM
https://youtube.com/v/YaRfGzee6EU

Rather interesting.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on December 12, 2020, 04:23:52 AM
Quote from: Que on December 12, 2020, 02:59:59 AM
https://youtube.com/v/YaRfGzee6EU

Thanks for posting, that's very helpful. And Anand Menon's name attached to it, normally implies for me thoughtful and balanced assessment.

(As for your iceberg metaphor, in Brexit just as in the Titanic, it is the first class, monied passengers who will be best protected from the icy economic waters, and Johnson and his cohorts steering us towards no deal of course amongst them, so in that sense they can afford (literally) to be reckless.
It may of course mean political harm for him, but as he's never really seemed that keen on the job anyway, I wonder how much that really bothers him. The Tory party are no slouchers when it comes to replacing leaders they no longer consider useful though, and Rishi Sunak or Jeremy Hunt, who seem possible replacements, would certainly be an improvement at least.)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 12, 2020, 08:33:05 AM
Quote from: Iota on December 12, 2020, 04:23:52 AM
(As for your iceberg metaphor, in Brexit just as in the Titanic, it is the first class, monied passengers who will be best protected from the icy economic waters, and Johnson and his cohorts steering us towards no deal of course amongst them, so in that sense they can afford (literally) to be reckless.

Some of the first class pasengers:

THE BREXITERS Who Fled Britain (https://bylinetimes.com/2020/12/09/brexiters-fled-britain/)

After manipulating and riling up the little man and the elderly, they're abandoning ship.
They really have no shame....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on December 12, 2020, 11:32:27 AM
Even for the ones that stay, a conversation might run like this:

UK resident: It's terrible! I'm losing my job and my home!

Jacob Rees-Mogg: I know! There's even a possibility I might have to trim the fleet of Rolls!


But as Iain Duncan Smith says in that vid, Brexit long ago ceased being about the economy, and became about autonomy, almost a synonym in this instance for patriotism ( and in some cases worse), and thus outside the scope of rationale. It just becomes an itch that has to be scratched whatever the consequences.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 12, 2020, 12:24:43 PM
Quote from: Iota on December 12, 2020, 11:32:27 AM
But as Iain Duncan Smith says in that vid, Brexit long ago ceased being about the economy, and became about autonomy, almost a synonym in this instance for patriotism ( and in some cases worse), and thus outside the scope of rationale. It just becomes an itch that has to be scratched whatever the consequences.

Quite agree with that analysis. 
I must admit: stirring up patriotism without any outside threat, and successfully painting allies and friends as enemies is quite an achievement.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on December 12, 2020, 12:27:11 PM
Quote from: Que on December 12, 2020, 12:24:43 PM
I must admit: stirring up patriotism without any outside threat, and successfully painting allies and friends as enemies is quite an achievement.

One that even Dr. Johnson couldn't have foreseen.  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 12, 2020, 12:44:47 PM
Quote from: Florestan on December 12, 2020, 12:27:11 PM
One that even Dr. Johnson couldn't have foreseen.  ;D

These times, I'm not surprised by any utter nonsense that is successfully sold to the masses.

People seem to be more dumb/insecure/scared/lost/self absorbed than ever before.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on December 12, 2020, 12:55:39 PM
Quote from: Que on December 12, 2020, 12:44:47 PM
These times, I'm not surprised by any utter nonsense that is successfully sold to the masses.

People seem to be more dumb/insecure/scared/lost/self absorbed than ever before.

Isn't democracy supposed to be about the masses / the people deciding?  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 12, 2020, 01:40:30 PM
Quote from: Florestan on December 12, 2020, 12:55:39 PM
Isn't democracy supposed to be about the masses / the people deciding?  ;D

The masses are in many cases manipulated and lied to, and then mobilised to serve particular (minority) interest.

Is that democracy or the degeneration of democracy?

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on December 12, 2020, 01:41:22 PM
Quote from: Que on December 12, 2020, 01:40:30 PM
The masses are in many cases manipulated and lied to, and then mobilised to serve particular (minority) interest.

Yes.

QuoteIs that democracy?

Q

What is democracy?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 12, 2020, 01:44:48 PM
Quote from: Florestan on December 12, 2020, 01:41:22 PM
What is democracy?

As you know, many answers to that are possible....  :)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on December 12, 2020, 01:45:30 PM
Quote from: Que on December 12, 2020, 01:44:48 PM
As you know, many answers to that are possible....  :)

What is democracy to you?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 12, 2020, 02:02:54 PM
Quote from: Florestan on December 12, 2020, 01:45:30 PM
What is democracy to you?

You mean which kind of democracy I prefer?

I'm as suspicious of the vox populi as of powerful elites.
I'm strongly against referendums or directly elected offices, like a president.
A representative parliamentary multi-party system, like the one I live in, seems the "best" option from that perspective.

Britain's minority governement in a bipolar/two party system, combined with the domination by one of its constituant parts, will be its undoing.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on December 12, 2020, 02:14:50 PM
Quote from: Que on December 12, 2020, 02:02:54 PM
You mean which kind of democracy I prefer?

Exactly.

QuoteI'm as suspicious of the vox populi as of powerful elites.
I'm strongly against referendums or directly elected offices like a president.

Iow, you are in favor of a constitutional monarchy ---- and so am I.  8)

QuoteA representative parliamentary multi-party system system, like the one I live in, seem the "best" option from that perspective.

Agreed once again. Just last week Romania had parliamentary election and no single party won a majority of the votes --- which is a good thing. There's gping to be a center-right coalition. I do agree and support it. Compromise and negotiation is the name of the game.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 12, 2020, 02:19:08 PM
Quote from: Florestan on December 12, 2020, 02:14:50 PM
Iow, you are in favor of a constitutional monarchy

A monarch or a ceremonial president, but a monarchy has some added historical significance.  :)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 12, 2020, 07:36:18 PM
Quote from: Que on December 12, 2020, 01:40:30 PM
The masses are in many cases manipulated and lied to, and then mobilised to serve particular (minority) interest.

We're all constantly manipulated and lied to in all sorts of areas, it's a characteristic of the whole money based civilisation. That's partly why I enjoy pure science like astronomy and space exploration; I can have confidence in what's being discovered. I'll need to be more careful in studying life sciences to distinguish actual facts from commercial propaganda.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on December 13, 2020, 05:50:19 AM
Well, the fat lady is singing good and loud. Thank God for that!

Life will not be easy for sure, but our fathers and grandfathers did not fight wars for us to end up a vassal state of the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 13, 2020, 06:28:27 AM
I expect we'll adjust as with everything else.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 13, 2020, 12:12:19 PM
Quote from: Irons on December 13, 2020, 05:50:19 AM
Well, the fat lady is singing good and loud. Thank God for that!

Nope, no fat lady... the talks will continue....

The UK needs a deal, and the EU wants one.

QuoteLife will not be easy for sure, but our fathers and grandfathers did not fight wars for us to end up a vassal state of the EU.

My congratulations with your liberation from subjugation and servitude.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Madiel on December 13, 2020, 08:48:52 PM
Quote from: Irons on December 13, 2020, 05:50:19 AM
Well, the fat lady is singing good and loud. Thank God for that!

Life will not be easy for sure, but our fathers and grandfathers did not fight wars for us to end up a vassal state of the EU.

That certainly isn't why they fought wars, because the EU didn't exist. Any conception of the EU that equates with the EU with the kind of things they were fighting against is... just fundamentally wrong.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on December 13, 2020, 11:49:13 PM
Quote from: Madiel on December 13, 2020, 08:48:52 PM
That certainly isn't why they fought wars, because the EU didn't exist. Any conception of the EU that equates with the EU with the kind of things they were fighting against is... just fundamentally wrong.
I thought they fought (several) wars in order to have their own vassal states?

Equality and cooperation is not easy, but in a modern and integrated world where the most important challenges are mutual, they are the only way forward.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 14, 2020, 12:08:37 AM
Churchill (whatever your views on him) said that he looked forward to a 'United States of Europe' and surely the prevention of future wars was an important reason for his statement.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on December 14, 2020, 07:39:10 AM
Quote from: Madiel on December 13, 2020, 08:48:52 PM
That certainly isn't why they fought wars, because the EU didn't exist. Any conception of the EU that equates with the EU with the kind of things they were fighting against is... just fundamentally wrong.

Not what we were fighting against - what we were/are fighting for. The EU will probably not exist in 50 years or it may in an entirely different form, makes no difference. I'm not going to use the overplayed S word but rightly or wrongly, which is an entirely different issue, we chose to leave the "club". It is not acceptable that rules and regulations are imposed on us from Brussels in exchange for a trade deal. The deal is more important to us but the price is too high.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on December 14, 2020, 08:00:53 AM
Quote from: Que on December 13, 2020, 12:12:19 PM
Nope, no fat lady... the talks will continue....

The UK needs a deal, and the EU wants one.

My congratulations with your liberation from subjugation and servitude.

Q

I accept your congratulations with grace.

Your right, the lady has stopped singing. Or to put it another way, Johnson has marched his army up the hill and marched them back down again. The paramount issue for him is not the EU but that he won a landside General Election on the slogan Get Brexit Done. If he doesn't deliver, the "Northern red wall" will crumble and politically he will be toast. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 14, 2020, 08:40:25 AM
Quote from: Irons on December 14, 2020, 08:00:53 AM
I accept your congratulations with grace.

Well, at least you got what you wished for.

But that doesn't apply to the majority of the British electorate at the time of the referendum..
Because, given a choice on what kind of Brexit, a large majority favoured a "soft Brexit" with Britain staying in the internal market (in your terms: vassalage)
Somehow the British system of government has delivered them a "hard Brexit", or in case of a deal: a semi-hard Brexit. In the meantime the majority of the British electorate, with notable exception of the Scots, seems to have reconciled itself with the outcome of the Brexit process.

I'm wondering for how long?

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Madiel on December 14, 2020, 11:24:40 AM
Quote from: Irons on December 14, 2020, 07:39:10 AM
Not what we were fighting against - what we were/are fighting for. The EU will probably not exist in 50 years or it may in an entirely different form, makes no difference. I'm not going to use the overplayed S word but rightly or wrongly, which is an entirely different issue, we chose to leave the "club". It is not acceptable that rules and regulations are imposed on us from Brussels in exchange for a trade deal. The deal is more important to us but the price is too high.   

The whole notion of "Brussels" being some separate thing that the UK had no say in is amusing, though I recognise the impulse. I live in a national capital. People talk about what "Canberra" did, ignoring that the rest of the country actually sent all the politicians to "Canberra".

Just think, if the EU mechanism had just decided to set up shop in London, Brexit might not have happened because the English would have had a sense of ownership.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on December 15, 2020, 05:26:56 AM
(https://i.ibb.co/LnCFdXN/fish.jpg)

I have a bream.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: premont on December 15, 2020, 06:21:26 AM
Isn't it a dead (or red) herring?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on December 15, 2020, 08:11:44 AM
https://www.youtube.com/v/PpncrBOdjaE&feature=youtu.be&ab_channel=extra3
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 15, 2020, 08:16:46 AM
Quote from: Que on December 10, 2020, 12:44:27 AM
[...]

Of the major European leaders, only Angela Merkel has some patience left and is still keen to avoid the economic and geopolitical fall out of a no-deal. Bless her!

Unlike Macron, she isn't interested in fish and is willing to compromise on that.

She has made very clear that her main problem is that the British refuse to agree on a mechanism that enables the EU to respond to future UK regulatory divergences that would undermine fair competition.


Brexit trade deal possible within days after Johnson concession, says EU


Barnier says PM's acceptance of need for 'evolution clause' as standards diverge has unlocked talks (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/14/brexit-trade-deal-possible-within-days-after-johnson-concession-says-eu)

Barnier is right: with this concession Germany will be on board, and the rest will follow.
Macron will resist over fish, but will ultimately compromise.

QuoteBoris is now caught between a rock and a hard place: both options will mean severe damage to the UK economy and the end of his political career...

Boris waited with key concessions till the moment that the prevailing mood in the UK would be one of relief, to save his political skin from the wrath of Brexit hardliners.

In my opinion there wil be a deal soon, in time for the emergency session of the European Parliament on the 28th of December.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: MusicTurner on December 15, 2020, 08:20:30 AM
Well, better than nothing. Details will be very interesting, should an agreement be made.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on December 16, 2020, 06:55:22 AM
Quote from: Que on December 15, 2020, 08:16:46 AM

Brexit trade deal possible within days after Johnson concession, says EU


Barnier says PM's acceptance of need for 'evolution clause' as standards diverge has unlocked talks (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/14/brexit-trade-deal-possible-within-days-after-johnson-concession-says-eu)

Barnier is right: with this concession Germany will be on board, and the rest will follow.
Macron will resist over fish, but will ultimately compromise.

Boris waited with key concessions till the moment that the prevailing mood in the UK would be one of relief, to save his political skin from the wrath of Brexit hardliners.

In my opinion there wil be a deal soon, in time for the emergency session of the European Parliament on the 28th of December.

Q

Interesting to hear the your views of European thought processes. The market seems to share your optimism.

https://www.ft.com/content/41f75c38-eac2-4ad3-8ba9-4121a9213157

I do hope there is a deal, but can't bring myself to assume anything until any dotted lines have been signed. Even then, bearing in mind the UK's recent egregious credentials at sticking to agreed provisions, if there is a deal I wonder what the EU are going to do to ensure the UK don't indulge in anymore illegal back-pedalling?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 16, 2020, 08:10:02 AM
I'm afraid that the deal, if it comes about, will be a dissapointment to all sides...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on December 16, 2020, 08:39:07 AM
Of that I'm under no illusion, but when you have lemons, you don't have many choices other than making lemonade alas. And for me that option remains preferable to no drink at all, but a sorry and absurd state of affairs for sure. : (
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 17, 2020, 04:53:48 AM
An interesting article in the Financial Times about Britain's regained liberty.

I put it - not as provocation but as a heartfelt opinion - that as a EU member state Britain was a major player within the EU and not a "vassal state", but will now be turned into just that by Brexit. Which is very ironic. And I don't mean that sarcastic - as a fellow European I find it a very sad state of affairs indeed. A whole nation has been turned against us, the rest of Europe, and the blame game after Brexit will only deepen the divide.


The UK will now count the cost of Brexit sovereignty

Boris Johnson's government is about to exchange real power for a chimera

Finally. In two short weeks the UK will reclaim its liberty. Brexit has so far been a story of rancorous division, shaking political fists and fractured ties with old allies. The union of Britain and Northern Ireland has been put in peril. But the glittering prize that will make it all worthwhile is now in sight.

We know what it is called. Boris Johnson and his fellow Brexiters speak of little else. The country, the prime minister promises, is to recover its "sovereignty". Forget the last minute wrangling with Brussels. The difference between a trade deal and no deal before January 1 is trivial against the loftier purpose. What was it Mr Johnson once said? "Fuck business". Brexit is about taking back control, returning the UK to self-government, regaining full command of its borders, money and laws.

In one narrow sense, Brexit's true believers are right. The gap between a thin trade deal and the absence of any accord is one between severe and more severe disruption. Either way, the UK will need 50,000 or more new customs agents to cope with the bureaucracy being injected into once-frictionless trading arrangements. The bargain under discussion is the first trade agreement in history consciously to raise protectionist barriers.

UK citizens will forfeit the right to travel and work without hindrance across the EU. Service industry workers will lose automatic recognition of their skills and qualifications. The independent experts belittled by ministers such as Michael Gove are near unanimous in predicting slower economic growth and lower living standards.

In return, British citizens will be able to indulge their nostalgia with a new, blue-hued passport to distinguish them from fellow Europeans — a reward that seems unlikely to compensate travellers for being henceforth consigned to the slow lanes at EU airports. Sovereignty, we are told by the Brexiters, also precludes membership of the Erasmus student exchange scheme, a role in the Galileo satellite project, and full access to the EU's intelligence gathering on terrorist and criminal networks.

So what, it now seems fair to ask, does this precious sovereignty look and taste like? Does it come in the form of a sculpted Britannia, disinterred from the cellars of the Berlaymont headquarters of the European Commission to be placed on a pedestal at Westminster? Will the scales of justice be transferred by carriage from the European Court in Luxembourg to the UK Supreme Court? And how, some British voters might be inclined to ask, will any of this improve prosperity and security?

You might have thought a prime minister so attached to the idea of sovereignty would have planned a spectacular demonstration of what it means for the UK to regain control of its borders, money and laws. After all, a post-Brexit pile-up of freight trucks waiting to cross the English Channel will not much look like an act of liberation. 

Instead, the Brexiters' fatal confusion between sovereignty and power is about to be exposed. Untrammelled sovereignty sounds alluring, but in a world in which each nation's security and economic wellbeing is inextricably connected to those of others, it turns out that it does not confer real power. 

Mr Johnson wants to stop migrants crossing the Channel in small boats to claim asylum in the UK. So what's to prevent him after January 1, when the government will be free of all EU restrictions? It is called reality. Halting the boats will depend, as it always has, on the active co-operation of the French authorities. So much for sovereignty. During the debate before the 2016 referendum, Leavers were often asked when had the EU taken big decisions against the expressed will of Westminster. Where was the proof the EU had been trampling on the nation's liberties? Beyond muttering about over-enthusiastic business regulation (much of it sought by British industry), I don't recall them giving an answer. 

These same Brexiters have nothing to offer now. Trade deals promised with third countries will largely replicate those the UK now enjoys within the EU. Mr Johnson's insistence on a right to diverge from EU norms in areas such as the environment, safety and employment is empty of serious meaning. Businesses that want to trade will continue to shadow the rules set in Brussels. UK boats may catch more fish in "sovereign" UK waters, but they will have to find willing buyers on the other side of the Channel.

There you have it. Brexit is a national tragedy built on a chimera. The UK is about to discover that it has traded the real power to shape its destiny for an illusion drenched in nostalgia.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Madiel on December 17, 2020, 11:54:33 AM
Pretty accurate. I've been pointing out on another forum that Australian law has a number of provisions that are there solely for the sake of our trade deals with the EU and for assuring the EU that our goods will meet their standards.

It's what happens when a fully sovereign nation makes a deal. The UK won't free itself from taking into account what the EU wants, it will just have a lot more paperwork to fill out.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on December 18, 2020, 01:55:31 AM
Yes, and rather obvious to me too. Instead og being a significant member of an EU focused in playing a larger part on the international scene, they have consigned themselves to being a midsize actor with no real clout.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 20, 2020, 12:49:30 AM
Eleventh-hour Brexit talks said to be 'extremely difficult' (https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1219/1185483-brexit-talks/)

Last contentious issue: fish..... ::)

The EU is now offering to return 25% of the current amount caught by other member states in UK waters. But the UK wants more and is intending to kick out the companies from other member states it sold a large portion of the UK quota to. (Who is going to catch all that fish?)

This is going to hit the fishing industries in France, Ireland, Belgium, The Netherlands and Denmark hard...

Deadline is supposed to be tonight, but don't you believe it... That was the wish of the European Parliament so it could properly prepare its emergency session next week.

But when push comes to shove, the real deadline lies further ahead.
The idea of translation of the treaty in all languases of the memer statds has already been abandoned - all procedures are going to be conducted on the basis of the negotiated English text.
And a provisional application of a deal, pending approval by the European Parliament and ratification by all member states is already being discussed. All that is really needed is the consent of ALL governments of the member states and probably the UK parliament.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 23, 2020, 12:08:09 AM
And the negotiations are still stuck on FISH...


"Barnier told EU ambassadors on Tuesday that Britain's latest offer on fish is less generous than it appears and that his proposal that European boats should sacrifice 25 per cent of their catch in British waters over seven years is final. Britain's proposal for the EU to give up 30-35 per cent over five years does not include pelagic fish such as herring, mackerel and whiting, so it is effectively a demand for European boats to sacrifice 60 per cent of the value of what they catch in British waters.

Britain is also seeking to water down level playing field commitments on fair competition, to make them less constraining, less binding and less subject to a dispute resolution mechanism."


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/brexit-hopes-fade-for-deal-before-christmas-but-delay-fraught-with-risk-for-johnson-1.4444244

Johnson is the one who is running the biggest risk here, so he will blink first - possibly before Christmas.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: MusicTurner on December 23, 2020, 12:35:15 AM
Isn't the general feeling just:
why the H*** can't those fools just get it done, in spite of the lots of money involved, as problems intensify on the ground and there are literally just a few days left - it's been so many years of embarrassing travesty  >:(
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 23, 2020, 01:03:26 AM
Quote from: MusicTurner on December 23, 2020, 12:35:15 AM
Isn't the general feeling just:
why the H*** can't those fools just get it done, in spite of the lots of money involved - it's been so many years of embarrassing travesty  >:(

Politics!  ::)

For the EU the negotiation process is largely rational: it is a damage limiting exercise focused on reducing the negative economic impact of Brexit and locking the UK into a stable relationship while avoiding future risks of unfair competition. But of course the threat to the livelihoods of fishermen in the EU will play an important political role as well.

For Johnson his entire political career is at stake. In terms of economics he is playing a lose-lose game: any outcome will damage the UK economy severely. So politically he must come out looking the winner that fought hard and got the best result possible. His primary concern is to avoid an immediate and very visible chaos right after Brexit. The far more serious but slower and more long term economic damage will less of his concern. In a few years time a bad economy can be blamed on all kinds of things: the pandemic, the EU, Scotland, Ireland, Labour.... plenty of possibilities there.
He is holding out till the last minute to prevent Brexit hardliners to topple him and sink any deal.

Whether he will survive, we'll see. The simultaneous COVID crisis might lead to his imminent fall.
It will be interesting to see which way the Tories will go after that: more hardline nationalist or more moderate.
I fear the former - in times of crisis voices of reason are not often heard.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: MusicTurner on December 23, 2020, 01:15:11 AM
Agree - one of the things implied in my outburst is that of the psychologically enforced long-term alienation of the political class from the public, especially the British one. To repair it with effectiveness will be a very demanding task and take a long time, and there's a risk for the simple solutions, populist and authoritarian trends to grow. Also, facing the crisis in the UK will mean further ideological polarization and class/wealth differences, with poverty and social problems.

Here it's BTW considered most likely that Scotland will separate and join the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 24, 2020, 12:49:28 AM
The announcement of a deal is imminent!

Good news for those who shop in or from the UK: there will be no border tariffs.  :)

Naturally Boris comes out of these negotiations as the victor, who like St. George, patron saint of England, has slain the evil dragon.

A taste of things to come:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ep_VpMBWMAAmO5-?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: 71 dB on December 24, 2020, 01:31:25 AM
Quote from: Que on December 24, 2020, 12:49:28 AM
The announcement of a deal is imminent!

Good news for those who shop in or from the UK: there will be no border tariffs.  :)

Naturally Boris comes out of these negotiations as the victor, who like St. George, patron saint of England, has slain the evil dragon.

A taste of things to come:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ep_VpMBWMAAmO5-?format=jpg&name=small)

Well that's good news if it is true, but I hate how politics is about "victories" for the politicians themselves. Boris Johnson is rich and priviledged. He is comfortable. Only his giant ego needs these victories. What matters is how these deals affect REGULAR people in UK and EU.

Also I hate political math. Who says those 28 wins of UK are equally big/important than the 11 of EU? Who does those 28 wins benefit? Regular people? The rich? The devil is in the details and this kind of silly math hides it from the people.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 24, 2020, 01:41:06 AM
The beauty is that the EU will only be all too happy to let Boris claim his victory.
If this helps the acceptance of the deal in the UK and a return to a stable and constructive relationship.

The EU suffered its real loss when the UK decided to leave (and so did the UK), and this is just damage control.
It will be relieved that it can returns its attention to other pressing matters, like: anti-democratic populism in Eastern Europe, the climate, agricultural reform and increasing global instability and security threats.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on December 24, 2020, 01:44:45 AM
Quote from: Que on December 24, 2020, 12:49:28 AM
The announcement of a deal is imminent!

Good news for those who shop in or from the UK: there will be no border tariffs.  :)

Naturally Boris comes out of these negotiations as the victor, who like St. George, patron saint of England, has slain the evil dragon.

A taste of things to come:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ep_VpMBWMAAmO5-?format=jpg&name=small)

I thought Macron was claiming victory?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 24, 2020, 01:48:55 AM
Quote from: Irons on December 24, 2020, 01:44:45 AM
I thought Macron was claiming victory?

I haven't seen it...

But particularly the agreement on fish will be a hard sell domestically for several EU leaders, including Macron.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on December 24, 2020, 02:01:02 AM
Quote from: Que on December 24, 2020, 12:49:28 AM
The announcement of a deal is imminent!

Good news for those who shop in or from the UK: there will be no border tariffs.  :)

Naturally Boris comes out of these negotiations as the victor, who like St. George, patron saint of England, has slain the evil dragon.

A taste of things to come:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ep_VpMBWMAAmO5-?format=jpg&name=small)

It reminds me of the Falklands war. I remember taking a bus somewhere in Oxford and someone sat in front of me was reading a newspaper and the headline on the front page said something like « England 4, Argentina 0 »
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 24, 2020, 03:30:06 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on December 24, 2020, 02:01:02 AM
It reminds me of the Falklands war. I remember taking a bus somewhere in Oxford and someone sat in front of me was reading a newspaper and the headline on the front page said something like « England 4, Argentina 0 »

Even worse was the Sun headline 'Gotcha!' when a Royal Navy submarine sunk an Argentinian battleship with many lives lost.

I'm glad there is a trade deal with the EU but, as with the Falklands War, I can't stand the triumphalism of it all. Boris is basically clearing up the mess that he was largely responsible for creating himself and what about all that money promised to the NHS which never materialised?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: ritter on December 24, 2020, 03:38:34 AM
Well, I for one am just sitting back and looking forward to the UK's application to rejoin the EU in 10 years' time or so.... Once the excuse of the EU being the culprit of all the UK's woes (real or imagined) starts wearing thin, a new set of scapegoats (the lot that got the country into this mess, for instance) can be identified, and a new referendum can be called...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on December 24, 2020, 04:46:19 AM
Thanks for some wise comment from ritter and Jeffrey.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 24, 2020, 06:00:08 AM
It seems a deal has been done, people will finally be able to plan ahead with some certainty on the new rules.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on December 24, 2020, 06:52:55 AM
Yes, he cleaned up his own mess and gets to play prime minister a little more.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: accmacmus on December 24, 2020, 07:13:59 AM
From the negotiators:

Barnier:
(https://i.imgur.com/8nbuP7Q.png)

Frost:
(https://i.imgur.com/brSkzWy.png)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on December 24, 2020, 07:50:03 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on December 24, 2020, 03:30:06 AM
Even worse was the Sun headline 'Gotcha!' when a Royal Navy submarine sunk an Argentinian battleship with many lives lost.

I'm glad there is a trade deal with the EU but, as with the Falklands War, I can't stand the triumphalism of it all. Boris is basically clearing up the mess that he was largely responsible for creating himself and what about all that money promised to the NHS which never materialised?
So, you all actually signed something?!  If so, hurray!  I had heard on the news this morning that I believe that some pizza was delivered to the discussions yesterday evening and that folks were hoping for a deal before January 1st.

PD
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 24, 2020, 08:26:52 AM
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on December 24, 2020, 07:50:03 AM
So, you all actually signed something?!  If so, hurray!  I had heard on the news this morning that I believe that some pizza was delivered to the discussions yesterday evening and that folks were hoping for a deal before January 1st.

PD

I understand there is a political agreement between the UK and the EU commission.
The lawyers of both sides are now going one last time through the 2000 pages of the treaty (because that is what it is).
Up next are the governments of the member states and the UK Parliament. They will have to agree before the treaty will enter into force provisionally, pending the consent of the European Parliament and the parliaments of all member states.

So, all kind of things could still go wrong before the deal is final. As was illustrated with the trade deal with Canada, when the parliament of Wallonia, the Francophone part of Belgium, initially refused ratification.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on December 24, 2020, 08:54:56 AM
Quote from: Que on December 24, 2020, 08:26:52 AM
I understand there is a political agreement between the UK and the EU commission.
The lawyers of both sides are now going one last time through the 2000 pages of the treaty (because that is what it is).
Up next are the governments of the member states and the UK Parliament. They will have to agree before the treaty will enter into force provisionally, pending the consent of the European Parliament and the parliaments of all member states.

So, all kind of things could still go wrong before the deal is final. As was illustrated with the trade deal with Canada, when the parliament of Wallonia, the Francophone part of Belgium, initially refused ratification.

Q
Oh, boy!  ::)  Thanks though for the further elucidation in any event Q.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 24, 2020, 10:49:05 AM
My father-in-law, who is now 90, predicted years ago that 'they'd stitch something together at the last minute'. He was right. How sad that Boris had to (predictably) go down the triumphalist route instead of showing a modicum of contrition, especially as c.70,000 UK citizens are now victims of Coronavirus and the governments botched handling of it. Remember that, not so long ago, we were reassured that a 'protective ring' had been placed around our care homes for the elderly, whereas, in point of fact, the elderly care home residents were thrown to the wolves by an incompetent government. Sorry that this message is not exactly full of Christmas cheer.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on December 25, 2020, 12:35:28 AM
That Ursula Von Leyen is one classy lady.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on December 25, 2020, 02:36:53 AM
Starmer decides to support the deal without reading it, evidently the most important thing for the opposition is to make the government look good and to curry favour with gammon.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/24/keir-starmer-to-whip-his-mps-to-support-thin-brexit-deal

The Tories are a populist party under Johnson; Labour is a populist party under Starmer. Tertium non datur.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on December 25, 2020, 07:22:08 AM
A feast full of fish!

I'd love to know what the people who aren't British make of this. As a Brit, I can just see the logic behind the PR decision to get him to present like this -- I'm sure there are people all over the country saying what a loveable rogue he is, with his brandy butter and oven ready deals, a shot in the arm, just what the doctor ordered.

https://www.youtube.com/v/kWHwWMfkBw8&ab_channel=10DowningStreet

Would Macron or Merkel or Trump present to their countries like this? Should they?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on December 26, 2020, 01:56:57 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on December 25, 2020, 02:36:53 AM
Starmer decides to support the deal without reading it, evidently the most important thing for the opposition is to make the government look good and to curry favour with gammon.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/24/keir-starmer-to-whip-his-mps-to-support-thin-brexit-deal

The Tories are a populist party under Johnson; Labour is a populist party under Starmer. Tertium non datur.

Unlike Corbyn, Starmer is no fool. The hard core of Labour voters voted leave and paradoxically the hard core of Conservative voted remain. Brexit has cost the careers of four Prime Ministers and the effectiveness of the opposition. For Starmer to have a chance at future elections he has to rebuild the shattered Labour heartlands in northern England, the so called "red wall" and he is not going to do that voting against Brexit. Europe and UK have let out a collective sigh of relief that Brexit is done but none louder then the Labour party.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on December 26, 2020, 02:15:08 AM
But he's changed his mind! He has principles after all. No need to whip the Labour MPs.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/05/starmer-labour-would-vote-down-canada-style-brexit-deal

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 26, 2020, 04:19:29 AM
As an outsider I can understand Starmer's approach then and now.
Then he wanted to push Boris towards a more comprehensive deal. Now Britain is better off with a deal than without, and supporting it saves alienation from Labour's leavers. Besides, Boris doesn't need his support to get this across...

As to "Brexit is done"... Yes, for Europe in a way this chapter is closed.
Even though there will be a need on both sides to negotiate many, many additional agreements on specific topics in the years to come.

For Britain however, I can't see how Brexit can ever be done.
Its electorate was and remains deeply divided on the issue, and the departure from the EU will continue to generate major, difficult and politically controversial issues for many years to come. Britain hasn't liberated itself, but has landed into a seemingly everlasting purgatory.

I see the UK heading towards a major political crisis, if it hasn't been already in one since the referendum.
When the miseries of Brexit materialise, there might be a crisis in the Conservative Party.

And then there is the Scottish issue. I would expect support for indepence rise further and cross the 60% mark.
Starmer has already voiced his opposition to Scottish independence and wants to transform the UK into a federal state instead.
An excellent idea that has been propagated for years by experts. But it might be too little too late and Brexit, which would paradoxically have never happened in a federal setup, might have closed that door for good. Besides: how and when would Starmer get into power with a Labour government to get this done?

Still, a transition to a federal system and proportional representation is IMO the only chance for the UK to survive as an entity.
But I cannot see that happening, unless the moderate Conservatives regain control of their party and form an alliance with Starmer's Labout to make it happen.

If Scotland secedes, the grip of the (hardliners in the) Conservative party on the remainder of the UK will be tighter than ever.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 26, 2020, 12:29:07 PM
So are the Brexit negotiations really over?

The side deal on Northern Ireland was completed before the main deal.
The main deal is almost done and dusted.

That leaves... Gibraltar...

Brexit clock 'still ticking over Gibraltar' as negotiations continue with Spain to keep border open (https://inews.co.uk/news/world/brexit-negotiations-gibraltar-spain-border-808706)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on December 26, 2020, 01:58:50 PM
Quote from: Que on December 26, 2020, 12:29:07 PM
So are the Brexit negotiations really over?

The side deal on Northern Ireland was completed before the main deal.
The main deal is almost done and dusted.

That leaves... Gibraltar...

Brexit clock 'still ticking over Gibraltar' as negotiations continue with Spain to keep border open (https://inews.co.uk/news/world/brexit-negotiations-gibraltar-spain-border-808706)
So, what was finally decided about Northern Ireland?

PD
Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on December 27, 2020, 01:53:10 AM
Quote from: Que on December 26, 2020, 04:19:29 AM
As an outsider I can understand Starmer's approach then and now.
Then he wanted to push Boris towards a more comprehensive deal. Now Britain is better off with a deal than without, and supporting it saves alienation from Labour's leavers. Besides, Boris doesn't need his support to get this across...

As to "Brexit is done"... Yes, for Europe in a way this chapter is closed.
Even though there will be a need on both sides to negotiate many, many additional agreements on specific topics in the years to come.

For Britain however, I can't see how Brexit can ever be done.
Its electorate was and remains deeply divided on the issue, and the departure from the EU will continue to generate major, difficult and politically controversial issues for many years to come. Britain hasn't liberated itself, but has landed into a seemingly everlasting purgatory.

I see the UK heading towards a major political crisis, if it hasn't been already in one since the referendum.
When the miseries of Brexit materialise, there might be a crisis in the Conservative Party.

And then there is the Scottish issue. I would expect support for indepence rise further and cross the 60% mark.
Starmer has already voiced his opposition to Scottish independence and wants to transform the UK into a federal state instead.
An excellent idea that has been propagated for years by experts. But it might be too little too late and Brexit, which would paradoxically have never happened in a federal setup, might have closed that door for good. Besides: how and when would Starmer get into power with a Labour government to get this done?

Still, a transition to a federal system and proportional representation is IMO the only chance for the UK to survive as an entity.
But I cannot see that happening, unless the moderate Conservatives regain control of their party and form an alliance with Starmer's Labout to make it happen.

If Scotland secedes, the grip of the (hardliners in the) Conservative party on the remainder of the UK will be tighter than ever.

Q

I agree with you in that Scottish independence will dominate British politics for the next few years - make a change from Brexit. Nicola Sturgeon is a savvy and driven politician.

Proportional representation will not happen in the foreseeable future if ever at all. It works on the continent but not the UK. The British electorate have no interest in it as was proved by the referendum result in 2011.

You say Brexit is not done. It is and I can never envisage a day when the UK will return even if it it wanted to. The EU's attitude would be surely - once bitten! It is over, for good or ill. Britain will survive and prosper but needed this deal, I grant you that. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Irons on December 27, 2020, 01:59:36 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on December 26, 2020, 02:15:08 AM
But he's changed his mind! He has principles after all. No need to whip the Labour MPs.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/05/starmer-labour-would-vote-down-canada-style-brexit-deal

It does make me laugh. When Starmer changes his mind he has principles. When Johnson does he has none.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 27, 2020, 02:47:11 AM
Quote from: Irons on December 27, 2020, 01:53:10 AM
You say Brexit is not done. It is and I can never envisage a day when the UK will return even if it it wanted to. The EU's attitude would be surely - once bitten! It is over, for good or ill. Britain will survive and prosper but needed this deal, I grant you that.

Time will tell...
I personally think every time that you will open your morning paper in the coming years, there will be news about some negotiation or another with the EU and on fierce political debate on the involved trade off on sovereignty. So I think it is a mistake to assume that this one deal will fix everything the UK wants and needs.

I rather see a Switzerland scenario, which country is continously in complicated negotiations with the EU because its population refuses to accept either EU membership or to become party to the Agreement on the European Economic Area, which gives non-EU members access to the Internal Market. Must sound terribly familiar!

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: steve ridgway on December 28, 2020, 06:10:30 AM
Quote from: Irons on December 27, 2020, 01:53:10 AM
Proportional representation will not happen in the foreseeable future if ever at all. It works on the continent but not the UK. The British electorate have no interest in it as was proved by the referendum result in 2011.

As most people had voted for either the Conservative or Labour Party in the inconclusive 2010 election which resulted in the tiny Liberal Party minority having the power to decide which of those two they'd work with. A "tail wagging the dog" scenario.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: MusicTurner on December 28, 2020, 06:24:01 AM
In the long run, such systems tend to result in more parties emerging though, and therefore more available combinations.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 28, 2020, 09:16:51 AM
Quote from: Que on December 24, 2020, 08:26:52 AM
I understand there is a political agreement between the UK and the EU commission.
The lawyers of both sides are now going one last time through the 2000 pages of the treaty (because that is what it is).
Up next are the governments of the member states and the UK Parliament. They will have to agree before the treaty will enter into force provisionally, pending the consent of the European Parliament and the parliaments of all member states.

So, all kind of things could still go wrong before the deal is final. As was illustrated with the trade deal with Canada, when the parliament of Wallonia, the Francophone part of Belgium, initially refused ratification.

Q

Correction: a political decision has been made that the EU alone will be party to this treaty with the UK. Therefore additional consent by the national parliaments is not forseen, just that of the governments as members of the Council and the European Parliament.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on December 28, 2020, 09:43:18 AM
Quote from: Irons on December 27, 2020, 01:53:10 AM

Proportional representation will not happen in the foreseeable future if ever at all. It works on the continent but not the UK. The British electorate have no interest in it as was proved by the referendum result in 2011.


This reminds me of an exchange between constable Crabtree and detective Murdoch in an episode of Murdoch Mysteries, set in 1896. Crabtree brings a cup of coffee (new and rare then) to the detective. « It's all the rage, Sir ». « Berk! It's so bitter. It will never catch. Who would want that when you can have a cup of tea? ».

Splendid isolation and all that... ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on December 28, 2020, 11:45:55 AM
Glad we got a deal, which although a pale shadow of what we had, is in the short-term economically clearly far preferable to no-deal.

I have wondered at times, if in the long-term a no-deal might have ultimately meant a stronger economy in the mid-term future, forcing a bigger shake-up and more dynamic response (as in Germany and Japan after WWII for example, though obviously that situation of a different order of magnitude). But that's pure speculation and I certainly wouldn't want it anyway, because of the inevitable short-term suffering.

I also wonder had it not been for the pandemic and its huge economic impact, if we would indeed have left with no-deal. The pressure created for a deal was obviously far greater, and tipped the balance heavily in favour of pragmatism over rash adventurism. But then again, with ideology involved there were no guarantees ..

On the idea of Britain renegotiating some kind of re-entry to the EU at some point, that does seem rather far off at the moment, particularly with the rise of nationalist tendencies all around. (And the sheer loss of the will to live at the mention of another EU referendum ..  ::))
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Madiel on December 28, 2020, 11:58:20 AM
It'll be a long long time before England looks at rejoining the EU.

It will be a far shorter time before Scotland does so. Given that half the battle in the previous Scottish independence referendum was over EU membership, and given Scotland voted against Brexit, the claims from Westminster that a Scottish independence vote was a once in a generation thing are just ludicrous.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on December 28, 2020, 05:00:35 PM
Quote from: André on December 28, 2020, 09:43:18 AM
This reminds me of an exchange between constable Crabtree and detective Murdoch in an episode of Murdoch Mysteries, set in 1896. Crabtree brings a cup of coffee (new and rare then) to the detective. « It's all the rage, Sir ». « Berk! It's so bitter. It will never catch. Who would want that when you can have a cup of tea? ».

Splendid isolation and all that... ::)

New and rare? Perhaps being revived at that time, but coffee was an essential element in building England's financial and cultural institutions
https://www.historic-uk.com/CultureUK/English-Coffeehouses-Penny-Universities/#:~:text=In%20London%2C%20the%20first%20one,the%20news%20of%20the%20day.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on December 30, 2020, 09:10:41 AM
Quote from: Que on December 26, 2020, 04:19:29 AM
Starmer has already voiced his opposition to Scottish independence and wants to transform the UK into a federal state instead.
An excellent idea that has been propagated for years by experts. But it might be too little too late and Brexit, which would paradoxically have never happened in a federal setup, might have closed that door for good. Besides: how and when would Starmer get into power with a Labour government to get this done?

Still, a transition to a federal system and proportional representation is IMO the only chance for the UK to survive as an entity.
But I cannot see that happening, unless the moderate Conservatives regain control of their party and form an alliance with Starmer's Labout to make it happen.

I agree, a federal system seems an eminently sensible and practical way forward, and in many ways in keeping with the spirit of the times. As we have three devolved legislatures in the UK already, we're already semi-federal anyway you could say. Though I don't quite see how a devolved English parliament would work in tandem with the Westminster government.

Of course I imagine Brexiteers in governmnent wouldn't be so keen on autonomy when it comes to giving it to others ..
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 30, 2020, 09:21:25 AM
Quote from: Iota on December 30, 2020, 09:10:41 AM
Of course I imagine Brexiteers in governmnent wouldn't be so keen on autonomy when it comes to giving it to others ..

Exactly. And I think for that reason the inevitable is unavoidable.  ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on December 30, 2020, 10:49:06 AM
Quote from: André on December 28, 2020, 09:43:18 AM
This reminds me of an exchange between constable Crabtree and detective Murdoch in an episode of Murdoch Mysteries, set in 1896. Crabtree brings a cup of coffee (new and rare then) to the detective. « It's all the rage, Sir ». « Berk! It's so bitter. It will never catch. Who would want that when you can have a cup of tea? ».

Splendid isolation and all that... ::)

Ahem!... They are Canadians, not Englishmen.  The only English-born character is Insp. Brackenreid and he's more of the whisky than the tea persusasion.  :D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 01, 2021, 03:47:28 AM
Last update: Spain and the UK have reached agreement on Gibraltar.
The rules of the Schengen Agreement will apply to Gibraltar, so people can freely cross the border between Spain and Gibraltar.

Spain and UK strike deal to avoid hard border in Gibraltar after Brexit (https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-and-uk-reach-eleventh-hour-deal-to-avoid-a-hard-border-in-gibraltar/)



(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/44c1269e536c32aa0ee1171f3d2fca59013c6fe5/0_0_2560_1536/master/2560.jpg?width=940&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=42399a037e55259fc8a2d06983992002)

So long...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Madiel on January 01, 2021, 02:03:09 PM
I'm sure there will be certain UK citizens who will be completely outraged at the prospect of having to go through a border checkpoint on arriving at Gibraltar's airport.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: MusicTurner on January 02, 2021, 02:17:00 AM
Quote from: Que on January 01, 2021, 03:47:28 AM
Last update: Spain and the UK have reached agreement on Gibraltar.
The rules of the Schengen Agreement will apply to Gibraltar, so people can freely cross the border between Spain and Gibraltar.

Spain and UK strike deal to avoid hard border in Gibraltar after Brexit (https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-and-uk-reach-eleventh-hour-deal-to-avoid-a-hard-border-in-gibraltar/)



(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/44c1269e536c32aa0ee1171f3d2fca59013c6fe5/0_0_2560_1536/master/2560.jpg?width=940&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=42399a037e55259fc8a2d06983992002)

So long...

I've once been cycling down there, and due to the intense traffic of cars between the regions, anything else would have become very, very difficult.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on January 12, 2021, 01:37:11 AM
Ham Sandwich Incident at Dutch Border:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/11/dutch-officials-seize-ham-sandwiches-from-british-drivers
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mandryka on January 12, 2021, 02:44:55 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on January 12, 2021, 01:37:11 AM
Ham Sandwich Incident at Dutch Border:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/11/dutch-officials-seize-ham-sandwiches-from-british-drivers

And I bet those bastards will confiscate bananas too, if they're not straight.


(https://s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/euobs-media/189f05ae5db6795dfaa9b583f4af2352.jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Madiel on January 12, 2021, 03:13:21 AM
Well that one was never true.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on January 15, 2021, 12:09:34 AM
If Brexit, and the Tories, had any support in Scotland it was in its fishing communities, who bought into to the golden future that was promised.

That dream has now come to an end:

Brexit 'seafood crisis' no joke for Scottish fishing fleets
Industry bodies are angry after trade friction was met wet with a joke about 'happier fish.'
(https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-drives-scottish-seafood-crisis-not-happier-fish/)

My heart goes out to these fishermen.
But doesn't it make sense that any amount of fish you catch is absolutely useless if you can't sell it?  ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on January 16, 2021, 01:33:33 AM
What went wrong?  ::) I guess posing the question,  is answering it.

Brexit trade problems: what's gone wrong and can it be fixed? (https://theconversation.com/brexit-trade-problems-whats-gone-wrong-and-can-it-be-fixed-153270)

Spoiler:

[But] there are limits to what can be realistically achieved. The limited ambition of the TCA in addressing trade barriers between the EU and the UK should not come as a surprise. It is a direct consequence of political decisions made by the UK and the EU. Unless priorities change, these barriers are here to stay.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on January 17, 2021, 02:28:51 AM
When I read the article below, I was reminded of the other day, when I had to cancel an order for some clothing items for my wife from the UK. I had put in the order in december, but there was some delay and the items couldn't be shipped until now.
Faced with the extra costs of receiving the package from the UK, I decided to cancel the order all together. After some searching on the internet, I found a EU based supplier for the items.
And I won't be orderering anything over €22  from the UK again.

Larger business in the UK have been setting up seperate continental branches for dealing with online orders from the EU.
Small businesses were unable to do that, and will be really hurt if they served a large clientele in the EU.

Shock Brexit charges are hurting us, say small British businesses (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/17/shock-brexit-charges-are-hurting-us-say-small-british-businesses)


Q
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Iota on January 17, 2021, 05:15:11 AM
Quote from: Que on January 17, 2021, 02:28:51 AM
Larger business in the UK have been setting up seperate continental branches for dealing with online orders from the EU.
Small businesses were unable to do that, and will be really hurt if they served a large clientele in the EU.

Shock Brexit charges are hurting us, say small British businesses (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/17/shock-brexit-charges-are-hurting-us-say-small-british-businesses)


Q

Indeed.

"There is the potential to make some changes if both sides agree – that is in the deal," said one leader of a UK business organisation. "But there is not much goodwill in the EU to help British business now. Business people like us can ask for more talks with the EU but optimism that we will get anywhere is in short supply."

Hardly surprising after the merry dance they've been led by the UK. Great to have control of our borders again ..  ::)


Brexit customs arrangements are hurting fresh food businesses too. Perhaps by 'oven-ready deal', Boris Johnson meant ready for incineration.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55680315


Nick Allen, chief executive of the British Meat Processor Association, said: "Fundamentally, this is not a system that was designed for a 24/7, just-in-time supply chain.

"The export health certification process was designed for moving containers of frozen meat around the world where you have a bit of leeway on time.

"No matter how much better we get at filling in the forms, it's really not fit for purpose. This is going back to the dark ages in terms of a process really, in this digital age."



Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on January 21, 2021, 08:11:48 AM
A firm slap in the face is always a good start in bilateral diplomatic relations.....

UK insists it will not grant EU ambassador full diplomatic status (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/uk-insists-it-will-not-grant-eu-ambassador-full-diplomatic-status)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on January 23, 2021, 12:46:44 AM
More Brexit fall out...

In this case I would say: finally...

MEPs vote to add Channel and British Virgin Islands to tax haven blacklist

UK overseas territories such as Cayman Islands also may lose protection once afforded by UK's EU membership (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/22/meps-vote-to-add-channel-and-british-virgin-islands-to-tax-haven-blacklist)


And the EU also needs stricter rules for its own member states as well (including my own, which has a bad track record...), in order to to contribute to a global effort against tax evasion. The absence of fierce British opposition will tilt the scale on this issue.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: MusicTurner on January 23, 2021, 03:18:52 AM
Quote from: Que on January 23, 2021, 12:46:44 AM
More Brexit fall out...

In this case I would say: finally...

MEPs vote to add Channel and British Virgin Islands to tax haven blacklist

UK overseas territories such as Cayman Islands also may lose protection once afforded by UK's EU membership (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/22/meps-vote-to-add-channel-and-british-virgin-islands-to-tax-haven-blacklist)


And the EU also needs stricter rules for its own member states as well (including my own, which has a bad track record...), in order to to contribute to a global effort against tax evasion. The absence of fierce British opposition will tilt the scale on this issue.

Q

Interesting - hopefully another sign of a general movement towards better international tax policing, reaching out globally, from the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on January 24, 2021, 01:22:45 AM
Large and medium sized businesses are setting up EU branches to serve EU customers: investments and employment will follow...

Like I said before: businesses are not interested in ideology, they will go where they can make money.


Move to EU to avoid Brexit costs, firms told (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/23/brexit-hit-firms-advised-government-officials-set-up-shop-in-eu)

A Brexit nightmare': the British businesses being pushed to breaking point (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/23/a-brexit-nightmare-the-british-businesses-being-pushed-to-breaking-point)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Florestan on January 24, 2021, 06:19:04 AM
Quote from: Que on January 24, 2021, 01:22:45 AM
businesses are not interested in ideology, they will go where they can make money.

Hear, hear!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Iota on January 24, 2021, 11:53:21 AM
Quote from: Que on January 24, 2021, 01:22:45 AM
Large and medium sized businesses are setting up EU branches to serve EU customers: investments and employment will follow...

Like I said before: businesses are not interested in ideology, they will go where they can make money.


Move to EU to avoid Brexit costs, firms told (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/23/brexit-hit-firms-advised-government-officials-set-up-shop-in-eu)

A Brexit nightmare': the British businesses being pushed to breaking point (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/23/a-brexit-nightmare-the-british-businesses-being-pushed-to-breaking-point)


The emptiness of Brexit and the shallowness of the thinking behind it, were never going to be a match for reality. The only chance it has is luck. English history is littered with asinine acts leading to beneficial results, so anything is possible I suppose. But how long it takes to get from one to the other is the same length as a piece of string. So not something it would be wise to seek reassurance from, I'd think.

And most of what you get now from the titans who led us here is little more than Lance Corporal Jones impersonations.   ::)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgonBt1oa9Y

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: vandermolen on January 26, 2021, 06:03:01 AM
Quote from: Iota on January 24, 2021, 11:53:21 AM

The emptiness of Brexit and the shallowness of the thinking behind it, were never going to be a match for reality. The only chance it has is luck. English history is littered with asinine acts leading to beneficial results, so anything is possible I suppose. But how long it takes to get from one to the other is the same length as a piece of string. So not something it would be wise to seek reassurance from, I'd think.

And most of what you get now from the titans who led us here is little more than Lance Corporal Jones impersonations.   ::)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgonBt1oa9Y

Very true - great clip!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on January 27, 2021, 07:55:44 AM
All seems a (Brexit) damp squib to me. Nothing has changed for better or worse. I should imagine the EU is relieved to see the back of the noisy neighbour and the UK can worry about more important - ish stuff such as Scottish independence and united Ireland. Over four years of political anguish and hand wringing over what to me seems to be a non-event. The UK has not gone to hell in a hand-cart and not entered the sunny uplands of a bright new future either. In fact post-Brexit feels exactly the same as pre-Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: MusicTurner on January 27, 2021, 08:11:43 AM
Quote from: Irons on January 27, 2021, 07:55:44 AM
All seems a (Brexit) damp squib to me. Nothing has changed for better or worse. I should imagine the EU is relieved to see the back of the noisy neighbour and the UK can worry about more important - ish stuff such as Scottish independence and united Ireland. Over four years of political anguish and hand wringing over what to me seems to be a non-event. The UK has not gone to hell in a hand-cart and not entered the sunny uplands of a bright new future either. In fact post-Brexit feels exactly the same as pre-Brexit.

That's an unusual opinion, I think ...
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on January 27, 2021, 10:22:28 AM
Quote from: Irons on January 27, 2021, 07:55:44 AM
All seems a (Brexit) damp squib to me. Nothing has changed for better or worse. I should imagine the EU is relieved to see the back of the noisy neighbour and the UK can worry about more important - ish stuff such as Scottish independence and united Ireland. Over four years of political anguish and hand wringing over what to me seems to be a non-event. The UK has not gone to hell in a hand-cart and not entered the sunny uplands of a bright new future either. In fact post-Brexit feels exactly the same as pre-Brexit.
Irons,

Do you have any friends who have businesses which export to the EU?  If you've talked to them lately, what are they experiencing/seeing?  It sounds like a lot of extra work and costs from my end and like it would be particularly hard on small businesses who either can't afford to set up a warehouse in the EU or that it would laying off some people in the UK?

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mandryka on January 27, 2021, 01:03:36 PM
Quote from: Irons on January 27, 2021, 07:55:44 AM
All seems a (Brexit) damp squib to me. Nothing has changed for better or worse.

No German Riesling in Waitrose in Wimbledon today. The man said that they're having huge problems with imports from the continent, vegetables as well (you can't buy an aubergine for love nor money - it reminds me of the North of England in the 1960s)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Papy Oli on January 27, 2021, 01:34:41 PM
Quote from: Irons on January 27, 2021, 07:55:44 AM
All seems a (Brexit) damp squib to me. Nothing has changed for better or worse. I should imagine the EU is relieved to see the back of the noisy neighbour and the UK can worry about more important - ish stuff such as Scottish independence and united Ireland. Over four years of political anguish and hand wringing over what to me seems to be a non-event. The UK has not gone to hell in a hand-cart and not entered the sunny uplands of a bright new future either. In fact post-Brexit feels exactly the same as pre-Brexit.

- £1 million Cheese business in Cheshire that can't export to EU because of the cost of new admin paperwork (£100 food safety certificate needed for each food parcels or products going to EU)...loss of business 200 grands..
- Scottish Fisheries who can't either and lose £50,000 of business per lorry...
- businesses thrown at the deep end 4 days before transition end with no advance knowledge of paperwork required
- businesses being told to move to EU if they want to get around any issues..by UK Gvt advisors
- already hundreds of millions worth of pounds worth moved by Financial companies from London to Paris and Frankfurt, thousands of staff already following suit..
- UK students that do not have access any more to Erasmus exchange to go and spend a year in a European university...
- large numbers of Lorries turned around on both sides because of incorrect additional paperwork...
- Not being able just to jump on a ferry or the Eurotunnel to go and visit parents in France as it was any more because of additional insurance paperwork now to be requested in advance of a visit...extremely helpful if one has to rush back to France in case of family emergency (Covid notwithstanding that is)....
- stock of fruits and veg not getting to Northern Ireland shelves
- Holyhead port losing very large chunks of business as transporters re-route transports directly from Ireland to the continent, bypassing NI and UK.
- As said before, handling fee, VAT and taxes now to be paid on goods bought from EU sellers above a certain value threshold
- Dyson moving HQ's to Singapore while backing Brexit (and other examples like that)...

It's all been in the news in the last months and last 3 weeks...

Absolutely hunky dory so far...

Like James O'Brien mentioned this morning on LBC, this country has simply decided to beat itself on the head with a frying pan, while still having to be grateful to Mr Johnson and his ilk for gifting us that frying pan... opinions might vary of course.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Papy Oli on January 27, 2021, 01:50:27 PM
Quote from: Mandryka on January 27, 2021, 01:03:36 PM
...vegetables as well (you can't buy an aubergine for love nor money)

I hear you, I had to rely on ratatouille from the freezer stock !!    ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on January 27, 2021, 08:00:07 PM
I've been told anecdotally that Australian exports to Northern Ireland have dropped sharply because the paperwork is too difficult and messy right now.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mandryka on January 28, 2021, 02:38:46 AM
Quote from: Papy Oli on January 27, 2021, 01:50:27 PM
I hear you, I had to rely on ratatouille from the freezer stock !!    ;D

You could make an English version of ratatouille with . . . err . . .  potatoes

(And serve it with some mint sauce.)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Papy Oli on January 28, 2021, 02:46:20 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on January 28, 2021, 02:38:46 AM
You could make an English version of ratatouille with . . . err . . .  potatoes

(And serve it with some mint sauce.)

and why not some jelly, while you're at it ??  :P :laugh:

(to be fair, i have come round to mint sauce and mint gravy for the lamb roast...took many years but i got there  :) )
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mandryka on January 28, 2021, 02:55:34 AM
Just for you

https://www.youtube.com/v/LQi2vLlporA&ab_channel=defunesfan
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Papy Oli on January 28, 2021, 04:30:26 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on January 28, 2021, 02:55:34 AM
Just for you

https://www.youtube.com/v/LQi2vLlporA&ab_channel=defunesfan

:laugh:

About 20 years ago, after I had already spent a few months living in the UK, I used to have French relatives inquiring quite worryingly: "but...but... what do you eat exactly in England ?"  :-X  :laugh:




Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on January 28, 2021, 07:25:32 AM
Quote from: MusicTurner on January 27, 2021, 08:11:43 AM
That's an unusual opinion, I think ...

Not an unusual occurrence.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on January 28, 2021, 07:38:34 AM
Quote from: Papy Oli on January 27, 2021, 01:34:41 PM
- £1 million Cheese business in Cheshire that can't export to EU because of the cost of new admin paperwork (£100 food safety certificate needed for each food parcels or products going to EU)...loss of business 200 grands..
- Scottish Fisheries who can't either and lose £50,000 of business per lorry...
- businesses thrown at the deep end 4 days before transition end with no advance knowledge of paperwork required
- businesses being told to move to EU if they want to get around any issues..by UK Gvt advisors
- already hundreds of millions worth of pounds worth moved by Financial companies from London to Paris and Frankfurt, thousands of staff already following suit..
- UK students that do not have access any more to Erasmus exchange to go and spend a year in a European university...
- large numbers of Lorries turned around on both sides because of incorrect additional paperwork...
- Not being able just to jump on a ferry or the Eurotunnel to go and visit parents in France as it was any more because of additional insurance paperwork now to be requested in advance of a visit...extremely helpful if one has to rush back to France in case of family emergency (Covid notwithstanding that is)....
- stock of fruits and veg not getting to Northern Ireland shelves
- Holyhead port losing very large chunks of business as transporters re-route transports directly from Ireland to the continent, bypassing NI and UK.
- As said before, handling fee, VAT and taxes now to be paid on goods bought from EU sellers above a certain value threshold
- Dyson moving HQ's to Singapore while backing Brexit (and other examples like that)...

It's all been in the news in the last months and last 3 weeks...

Absolutely hunky dory so far...

Like James O'Brien mentioned this morning on LBC, this country has simply decided to beat itself on the head with a frying pan, while still having to be grateful to Mr Johnson and his ilk for gifting us that frying pan... opinions might vary of course.

You make some good points Olivier and then you spoil it by James O'Brian !  :o. I listen to Ian Dale. Which pretty well sums it up. If we have as you say nothing, we do have vaccine unless the EU decide it is unfair.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on January 28, 2021, 03:53:49 PM
I find it interesting how the Brexit narrative has kept shifting over time.

At the time of the referendum many Brexiteers brushed away any fears of economic damage by painting an "soft" Brexit, in which the UK would remain in the EU customs union and the internal market, as the most likely outcome.
After the referendum this gradually shifted via half-in half-out scenario under Theresa May, to a "hard" Brexit scenario under Johnson. The outcome of a hard Brexit was to serve as a justification for Brexit itself. After all, was was the point of leaving if the UK would still voluntarily stick to EU rules?

Then the narrative became that severing economic ties with the EU would indeed cause economic damage, but this would be compensated by new grandiose trade opportunities in the rest of the world. None of these opportunities materialised, the UK was fortunate enough to close some international trade deals that copied the previous conditions under the EU trade deals.

Now the narrative is that the UK has regained its freedom, and that apart from a few glitches everything has basically stayed the same due to a victorious last minute deal. Nonsense, absolute nonsense. Trade barriers have been resurrected and these will result in less or less advantageous trade and therefore in economic damage - on both sides of the channel...

How Brexit is already taking its toll on the U.K. economy (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-brexit-is-already-taking-its-toll-on-the-u-k-economy-11611842118)  (Marketwatch)

But there is also "good" news: Nissan is not leaving (but other car makers will):

Nissan staying in UK is great news after Brexit, but car industry's future is still very unclear (https://theconversation.com/nissan-staying-in-uk-is-great-news-after-brexit-but-car-industrys-future-is-still-very-unclear-153928)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on January 28, 2021, 04:09:22 PM
The UK will over time no longer serve as supply link between Ireland and mainland Europe:

After Brexit, Ireland and France cut out the middleman - Britain (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-maritime-trade-idUSKBN29R1ME)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: steve ridgway on January 28, 2021, 08:39:54 PM
Quote from: Que on January 28, 2021, 04:09:22 PM
The UK will over time no longer serve as supply link between Ireland and mainland Europe:

After Brexit, Ireland and France cut out the middleman - Britain (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-maritime-trade-idUSKBN29R1ME)

This will hopefully reduce the lorry traffic on our motorways to more acceptable levels. It's a couple of hundred miles drive through the busiest areas to enter Britain at one side only to leave at the other and the roads have become choked. I don't suppose foreign lorries pay anything towards the endless repairs and "upgrades".
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Papy Oli on January 28, 2021, 11:58:47 PM
Quote from: Irons on January 28, 2021, 07:38:34 AM
You make some good points Olivier and then you spoil it by James O'Brian !  :o. I listen to Ian Dale. Which pretty well sums it up. If we have as you say nothing, we do have vaccine unless the EU decide it is unfair.

I actually did listen to both James O'Brien and Ian Dale over months after the referendum. Even though i disagreed with Ian Dale's Brexit views, I thought he had the right constructive approach to debating it and put his points across sensibly. I found it challenging but interesting. O'Brien is more "passionate" but still thorough in his approach, particularly in debunking some empty Brexit rhetoric that hard brexiteers came up with over time. It was worth listening to both sides.

I admit that the vaccine roll-out is indeed to the credit of the UK (as well as the furlough scheme). That's how efficiently the NHS and the Army can do things when you let them do one job they are built for and fund them appropriately, instead of handing out billions to private companies & have something run by cronies that have nothing to with the type of business needed (case in point with track & trace with Serco and Dido Harding...and still call it wrongly the NHS test & trace in multiple press conferences when it is anything but...I am sure Labour wasted public money in their own way too).

The actions against the pandemic have been a hard balancing act for every country and tough decisions to be made throughout. What irks me is that Mr Johnson seems to hide behind this "world-beating" vaccine roll-out and completely forget about the shambolic or late decisions and communications in the last year. More than that, it is the fact that he has not learnt from his previous late or shambolic decisions and keeps repeating them, while still claiming to be following the science, albeit weeks later than needed. This is not "doing everything we can" by any stretch. No EU country has been perfect in their handling of covid by any means but when you have 100,000+ covid-related deaths and probably another 40K+ by the time we get to the bottom of the second wave, there is a problem or two somewhere that need a hard look at...
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Papy Oli on January 29, 2021, 12:08:56 AM
Quote from: steve ridgway on January 28, 2021, 08:39:54 PM
This will hopefully reduce the lorry traffic on our motorways to more acceptable levels. It's a couple of hundred miles drive through the busiest areas to enter Britain at one side only to leave at the other and the roads have become choked. I don't suppose foreign lorries pay anything towards the endless repairs and "upgrades".

From 2014:
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-2593608/Foreign-juggernauts-pay-drive-UK-roads.html (https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-2593608/Foreign-juggernauts-pay-drive-UK-roads.html)

Alternatively, maybe the governement should put some tolls on the motorways like in France...or ask for EU transport subsidies and grants...  ;)


 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on January 29, 2021, 01:23:28 AM
Quote from: Papy Oli on January 28, 2021, 11:58:47 PM
I actually did listen to both James O'Brien and Ian Dale over months after the referendum. Even though i disagreed with Ian Dale's Brexit views, I thought he had the right constructive approach to debating it and put his points across sensibly. I found it challenging but interesting. O'Brien is more "passionate" but still thorough in his approach, particularly in debunking some empty Brexit rhetoric that hard brexiteers came up with over time. It was worth listening to both sides.

I admit that the vaccine roll-out is indeed to the credit of the UK (as well as the furlough scheme). That's how efficiently the NHS and the Army can do things when you let them do one job they are built for and fund them appropriately, instead of handing out billions to private companies & have something run by cronies that have nothing to with the type of business needed (case in point with track & trace with Serco and Dido Harding...and still call it wrongly the NHS test & trace in multiple press conferences when it is anything but...I am sure Labour wasted public money in their own way too).

The actions against the pandemic have been a hard balancing act for every country and tough decisions to be made throughout. What irks me is that Mr Johnson seems to hide behind this "world-beating" vaccine roll-out and completely forget about the shambolic or late decisions and communications in the last year. More than that, it is the fact that he has not learnt from his previous late or shambolic decisions and keeps repeating them, while still claiming to be following the science, albeit weeks later than needed. This is not "doing everything we can" by any stretch. No EU country has been perfect in their handling of covid by any means but when you have 100,000+ covid-related deaths and probably another 40K+ by the time we get to the bottom of the second wave, there is a problem or two somewhere that need a hard look at...

Good points, well put. As for James O'Brian, although I didn't agree with his politics I listened to him most mornings as he is a good communicator. To be fair he was critical of Corbyn so there was some balance but  his constant barrage on Brexit is tiresome and I reached the stage I could not listen any more. You have to admit Olivier, O'Brien is a very smug man. Like it or or not we are out of the EU and pointless bleating on about it. For balance (and smut) I listen to the "For the Many" political podcast with Ian Dale and ex Labour Home Secretary, Jackie Smith. They manage to discuss from a left and right perspective without rancour - no mean feat.
I did not want to bring up vaccines as it is a low blow but felt I had little choice. History will judge Johnson and he knows it, I agree with much you say.
Seems to be forgotten that Johnson did not choose Bexit, the British electorate did.


PS Dyson are not leaving the UK because of Brexit in fact James Dyson is suing the EU for £200 million.   
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: vandermolen on January 29, 2021, 02:06:43 AM
Quote from: Irons on January 29, 2021, 01:23:28 AM
Good points, well put. As for James O'Brian, although I didn't agree with his politics I listened to him most mornings as he is a good communicator. To be fair he was critical of Corbyn so there was some balance but  his constant barrage on Brexit is tiresome and I reached the stage I could not listen any more. You have to admit Olivier, O'Brien is a very smug man. Like it or or not we are out of the EU and pointless bleating on about it. For balance (and smut) I listen to the "For the Many" political podcast with Ian Dale and ex Labour Home Secretary, Jackie Smith. They manage to discuss from a left and right perspective without rancour - no mean feat.
I did not want to bring up vaccines as it is a low blow but felt I had little choice. History will judge Johnson and he knows it, I agree with much you say.
Seems to be forgotten that Johnson did not choose Bexit, the British electorate did.


PS Dyson are not leaving the UK because of Brexit in fact James Dyson is suing the EU for £200 million.
Fair points, although I would add that Johnson was, as far as I'm aware, responsible for that big lie on the bus about the money from the EU going to the NHS.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on January 29, 2021, 04:21:05 AM
Quote from: Que on January 28, 2021, 03:53:49 PM
I find it interesting how the Brexit narrative has kept shifting over time.

At the time of the referendum many Brexiteers brushed away any fears of economic damage by painting an "soft" Brexit, in which the UK would remain in the EU customs union and the internal market, as the most likely outcome.
After the referendum this gradually shifted via half-in half-out scenario under Theresa May, to a "hard" Brexit scenario under Johnson. The outcome of a hard Brexit was to serve as a justification for Brexit itself. After all, was was the point of leaving if the UK would still voluntarily stick to EU rules?

Then the narrative became that severing economic ties with the EU would indeed cause economic damage, but this would be compensated by new grandiose trade opportunities in the rest of the world. None of these opportunities materialised, the UK was fortunate enough to close some international trade deals that copied the previous conditions under the EU trade deals.

Now the narrative is that the UK has regained its freedom, and that apart from a few glitches everything has basically stayed the same due to a victorious last minute deal. Nonsense, absolute nonsense. Trade barriers have been resurrected and these will result in less or less advantageous trade and therefore in economic damage - on both sides of the channel...

How Brexit is already taking its toll on the U.K. economy (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-brexit-is-already-taking-its-toll-on-the-u-k-economy-11611842118)  (Marketwatch)

But there is also "good" news: Nissan is not leaving (but other car makers will):

Nissan staying in UK is great news after Brexit, but car industry's future is still very unclear (https://theconversation.com/nissan-staying-in-uk-is-great-news-after-brexit-but-car-industrys-future-is-still-very-unclear-153928)
What have you heard about any EU businesses being hurt who previously sold a lot of their product(s) to the UK?

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: steve ridgway on January 29, 2021, 05:12:35 AM
Quote from: Papy Oli on January 29, 2021, 12:08:56 AM
From 2014:
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-2593608/Foreign-juggernauts-pay-drive-UK-roads.html (https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-2593608/Foreign-juggernauts-pay-drive-UK-roads.html)

Thanks for the link, I never knew that. I don't suppose we'll get the hard shoulder on the M62 back though, it's a bit slower for me now to avoid it in favour of a safer route when I have to go that way.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Papy Oli on January 29, 2021, 06:00:34 AM
Quote from: Irons on January 29, 2021, 01:23:28 AM
Good points, well put. As for James O'Brian, although I didn't agree with his politics I listened to him most mornings as he is a good communicator. To be fair he was critical of Corbyn so there was some balance but  his constant barrage on Brexit is tiresome and I reached the stage I could not listen any more. You have to admit Olivier, O'Brien is a very smug man. Like it or or not we are out of the EU and pointless bleating on about it. For balance (and smut) I listen to the "For the Many" political podcast with Ian Dale and ex Labour Home Secretary, Jackie Smith. They manage to discuss from a left and right perspective without rancour - no mean feat.
I did not want to bring up vaccines as it is a low blow but felt I had little choice. History will judge Johnson and he knows it, I agree with much you say.
Seems to be forgotten that Johnson did not choose Bexit, the British electorate did.


PS Dyson are not leaving the UK because of Brexit in fact James Dyson is suing the EU for £200 million.

Is O'Brien smug because he is being proven right, I wonder ?  :P (now that IS a low blow  :laugh: )

I never actually listened to the Dale/Smith podcast, I should give it a go... you got me at smut  ;D

You are right, Brexit is done and we have to live with it and somehow move on, but considering how we have been sold it over the last 4 years (and the changes thereof like Que posted further up), there should still be some ongoing accountability and questions to be asked when the outcome is having a negative impact on (some) businesses, exports, goods circulation, employment, workers rights, circulation of your own population, settled EU residents and impact on your expats in the EU too. We were never going to get all those sunny uplands but a working system is at least what we should expect (like with any new policy for that matter). Time will tell if these are teething issues for some positives later or if we are being sold down the river and we simply shafted ourselves.

Your vaccine point was not a low blow by the way. It is objectively one thing that the UK has done quickly and decisively, the EU not so much (My parents let me know yesterday that several French regions closed their vaccinations centres for the foreseeable because they do not any have stock left of the vaccines . Quite worrying in comparison to my partner's dad already vaccinated and her mum due next week. When all four parents are in the 71-75 age group, the difference is striking... )

Quote from: steve ridgway on January 29, 2021, 05:12:35 AM
Thanks for the link, I never knew that. I don't suppose we'll get the hard shoulder on the M62 back though, it's a bit slower for me now to avoid it in favour of a safer route when I have to go that way.

Nor did I, steve, tbh.
I had a very vague memory that Germany was doing something to that effect (might be incorrect), I just looked up if the UK did as well.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Papy Oli on January 29, 2021, 06:03:10 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on January 29, 2021, 02:06:43 AM
Fair points, although I would add that Johnson was, as far as I'm aware, responsible for that big lie on the bus about the money from the EU going to the NHS.

We have a saying in France: "The electoral promises only commit the ones who are reading them"  :blank:

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on January 30, 2021, 12:43:44 AM
Quote from: steve ridgway on January 28, 2021, 08:39:54 PM
This will hopefully reduce the lorry traffic on our motorways to more acceptable levels. It's a couple of hundred miles drive through the busiest areas to enter Britain at one side only to leave at the other and the roads have become choked. I don't suppose foreign lorries pay anything towards the endless repairs and "upgrades".

Less lorries will certainly be the case...  :)

But it is important to realise that those lorries also signify economic activity.
We're talking about an entire logistics & distribution chain from mainland Europe to Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic.
A lot of goods are first transported to the UK, stored and then redistributed. This involves UK logistics and distribution centres and transportation companies that will have less bussiness. Also the extra volume destined for Ireland made the whole process for goods destined for the UK cheaper. Conclusion: less lorries but also less business and higher distribution and transportation costs.

Perhaps not anything dramatic in itself (unless you are running a company primarily focused on the distribution and transportation chain to Ireland), but it all adds up. All these economic shifts will result in casualties in companies and in jobs, and to decreased economic efficiency overall. And decreasing economic efficiency means loss of wealth (GDP).

Q
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on January 30, 2021, 12:56:15 AM
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on January 29, 2021, 04:21:05 AM
What have you heard about any EU businesses being hurt who previously sold a lot of their product(s) to the UK?

PD

The damage to just the Dutch economy has been forecasted to be a €4.5 bilion hit on Dutch GDP and a loss of 17.700 jobs.

We talking about the export of food, flowers, machinery, chemical products, but also legal services and banking.

Brexit will destroy a part of our shared wealth. Allthough this is a two sided process, the damage on the EU side will be shared, if unequally, amongst several member states. The damage on the UK side is for the UK to bear alone.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on February 06, 2021, 02:02:32 AM
Brexit has politically reignited the issue of Scottish independence, but has simultaneously raised the economic stakes on independence:


Scottish independence would be 2-3 times more costly than Brexit, and rejoining the EU won't make up the difference (https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2021/02/04/indyref2-scottish-independence-would-be-2-3-times-more-costly-than-that-of-brexit-and-rejoining-the-eu-wouldnt-make-up-the-difference/)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on February 07, 2021, 09:24:01 AM

Exports from UK to EU down 68% since Brexit trade deal, say hauliers (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-exports/exports-from-uk-to-eu-down-68-since-brexit-trade-deal-say-hauliers-idUSKBN2A70G3) (Reuters)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: MusicTurner on February 07, 2021, 09:28:26 AM
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on January 29, 2021, 04:21:05 AM
What have you heard about any EU businesses being hurt who previously sold a lot of their product(s) to the UK?

PD

It's affecting Danish agricultural export to the UK, traditionally high, and Danish fishing, but the effects might be more limited than feared - a little to early to tell.

As regards UK music shops, they'll be hit hard, I don't plan to buy from Presto or other UK sites any more, customs/handling fees will be too high. German JPC, locals and others will take over.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Iota on February 07, 2021, 09:43:48 AM
Quote from: Que on February 07, 2021, 09:24:01 AM
Exports from UK to EU down 68% since Brexit trade deal, say hauliers (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-exports/exports-from-uk-to-eu-down-68-since-brexit-trade-deal-say-hauliers-idUSKBN2A70G3) (Reuters)

They should have known that loss of GMG custom would exact a heavy toll!  :laugh:
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on February 07, 2021, 09:45:30 AM
Quote from: Iota on February 07, 2021, 09:43:48 AM
They should have known that loss of GMG custom would exact a heavy toll!  :laugh:

All those CDs....  :D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on February 07, 2021, 09:53:45 AM
Quote from: MusicTurner on February 07, 2021, 09:28:26 AM
It's affecting Danish agricultural export to the UK, traditionally high, and Danish fishing, but the effects might be more limited than feared - a little to early to tell.

As regards UK music shops, they'll be hit hard, I don't plan to buy from Presto or other UK sites any more, customs/handling fees will be too high. German JPC, locals and others will take over.
I wonder whether or not PrestoC might find it economically viable to set up a warehouse in the EU?

Idea:  Perhaps those of you who regularly order from them might suggest it/ask if they're planning on setting up something...and perhaps send a link or two to relevant comments on GMG?  I'd hate to see Amazon get yet more of our money and the 'little guys' go under.  :( >:(

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: MusicTurner on February 07, 2021, 10:13:53 AM
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on February 07, 2021, 09:53:45 AM
I wonder whether or not PrestoC might find it economically viable to set up a warehouse in the EU?

Idea:  Perhaps those of you who regularly order from them might suggest it/ask if they're planning on setting up something...and perhaps send a link or two to relevant comments on GMG?  I'd hate to see Amazon get yet more of our money and the 'little guys' go under.  :( >:(

PD

Good thinking! I never buy from Amazon itself, btw.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on February 07, 2021, 12:17:07 PM
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on February 07, 2021, 09:53:45 AM
I wonder whether or not PrestoC might find it economically viable to set up a warehouse in the EU?

A lot of British companies are setting up an EU subsidiary, and quite a few pick the Netherlands as the location due to proximity, a good logistical network with the rest of Europe and general proficiency in English.

Presto would be very welcome!  :)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on February 07, 2021, 12:22:18 PM
Quote from: Que on February 07, 2021, 12:17:07 PM
A lot of British companies are setting up an EU subsidiary, and quite a few pick the Netherlands as the location due to proximity, a good logistical network with the rest of Europe and general proficiency in English.

Presto would be very welcome!  :)

Q
Well, contact them!  :)

We need to support companies that care about classical music--in my opinion anyway.  :)

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on February 10, 2021, 12:13:36 AM
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on February 07, 2021, 12:22:18 PM
Well, contact them!  :)

We need to support companies that care about classical music--in my opinion anyway.  :)

PD

I'm sure they don't need my advice in this matter...  :)

BTW the advice to set up an EU branch has already been given to companies by UK officials.

But for a small company setting up a branch abroad, complete with a physical location, separate logistics and staff, is a very big step. You need a sufficiently large turrnover to make up for the extra investment and overhead costs.

In other words: if you are a small business and a large portion of your clientele is in the EU, you are scr@wed.
Unless you are a unique super specialist with little competition.In that case your EU clients will cough up the extra costs and endure the added inconveniences.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on February 10, 2021, 07:59:47 AM
Quote from: Que on February 10, 2021, 12:13:36 AM
I'm sure they don't need my advice in this matter...  :)

BTW the advice to set up an EU branch has already been given to companies by UK officials.

But for a small company setting up a branch abroad, complete with a physical location, separate logistics and staff, is a very big step. You need a sufficiently large turrnover to make up for the extra investment and overhead costs.

In other words: if you are a small business and a large portion of your clientele is in the EU, you are scr@wed.
Unless you are a unique super specialist with little competition.In that case your EU clients will cough up the extra costs and endure the added inconveniences.

Q

JD Sports are exactly doing that and so they should.

https://metro.co.uk/2021/02/09/jd-sports-moving-1000-jobs-to-eu-as-brexit-is-worse-than-predicted-14050970/

All businesses in UK and EU need to rejig for the new situation. Makes little sense for the company to import goods from Asia and then export to EU. No room for sentiment in business, but JD lose credibility by at the same time demanding assistance from the government in the upcoming budget for rates and rents due to pandemic which possibly would be breaking EU rules.

https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2018/11/13/Do-EU-rules-impact-business-rates
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on February 10, 2021, 08:24:07 AM
Quote from: Que on February 10, 2021, 12:13:36 AM
I'm sure they don't need my advice in this matter...  :)

BTW the advice to set up an EU branch has already been given to companies by UK officials.

But for a small company setting up a branch abroad, complete with a physical location, separate logistics and staff, is a very big step. You need a sufficiently large turrnover to make up for the extra investment and overhead costs.

In other words: if you are a small business and a large portion of your clientele is in the EU, you are scr@wed.
Unless you are a unique super specialist with little competition.In that case your EU clients will cough up the extra costs and endure the added inconveniences.

Q
From what I've been seeing under the Recent Purchases thread, I suspect that there are about a half dozen of you that comprise *half of their sales (hence my suggestion that they might be interested in reading your comments about intentions to purchase elsewhere).  ;)

*o.k., maybe not that much, but still....  :D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: DavidW on February 10, 2021, 08:26:09 AM
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on February 07, 2021, 12:22:18 PM
Well, contact them!  :)

We need to support companies that care about classical music--in my opinion anyway.  :)

PD

Presto was the only ones still selling the Jurowski Tchaikovsky symphonies that I wanted.  And that other UK store that I used to buy from is just GONE.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on February 10, 2021, 08:27:30 AM
Quote from: DavidW on February 10, 2021, 08:26:09 AM
Presto was the only ones still selling the Jurowski Tchaikovsky symphonies that I wanted.  And that other UK store that I used to buy from is just GONE.
MDT?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: DavidW on February 10, 2021, 08:30:28 AM
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on February 10, 2021, 08:27:30 AM
MDT?

Yup.  I used to buy them from all the time before I switched to streaming.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: MusicTurner on February 10, 2021, 08:39:11 AM
They just stopped, suddenly, not sure they even explained it ...
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: The new erato on February 10, 2021, 09:01:19 AM
They went bust a couple of years ago.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on February 11, 2021, 08:38:40 AM
Exports to the EU are the main problem now, but from April 1st imports from the EU might follow...


Food traders say Brexit impact 'could get worse' (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-56010036)  (BBC)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: André Le Nôtre on February 12, 2021, 12:49:04 PM
Some archaeologists now believe that Stonehenge was originally erected in Wales: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-stonehenge/second-time-lucky-stonehenge-first-erected-in-wales-archaeologists-say-idUSKBN2AC0UK

I think that after Scottish independence and a unified Ireland, Wales should also declare its independence and demand the return of Stonehenge!  :P
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: MusicTurner on February 12, 2021, 01:07:13 PM
Interesting. Will no doubt cause debate ... 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on February 13, 2021, 07:20:22 PM
The move would have happened before 'Wales' and 'England' existed as concepts.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on February 14, 2021, 11:50:28 PM
And the Brexit fallout continues....


Amsterdam displaces London as Europe's top stocks centre after Brexit (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-markets/amsterdam-displaces-london-as-europes-top-stocks-centre-after-brexit-idUSKBN2AB0I8)   (Reuters)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Iota on March 04, 2021, 05:57:33 AM
Unless some as yet unseen happy alternative becomes apparent, drifting back closer to a de facto sort of EU membership as a result of post-Brexit economic realities biting, is what I'm hoping might happen. This article clearly hoping for the same.
I also thought the following about the political manoeuvrings after the referendum was very true:

'One of the reasons why in the years after 2016 Britain pulled towards more and more extreme forms of Brexit was that there was always a partisan or factional advantage on offer to anyone willing to say the government wasn't pro-Brexit enough. It was a way of building a reputation, and garnering flattering write-ups in the Daily Telegraph: it's the only reason, let's be honest, that any of us have even heard of Mark Francois.

But the result was that the Tory party was always under pressure to appease its hardliners. There was no countervailing pressure on the other side because, as loudly as Remainers may have yelled about the downsides of Brexit, they all lay in the future: nobody could actually feel them. Tory moderates did not end up pulling the party back towards sanity: they just ended up outside the party.'


https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2021/02/now-brexit-finally-done-people-will-soon-miss-benefits-eu-membership?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mandryka on March 04, 2021, 07:33:04 AM
Quote from: Iota on March 04, 2021, 05:57:33 AM
Unless some as yet unseen happy alternative becomes apparent, drifting back closer to a de facto sort of EU membership as a result of post-Brexit economic realities biting, is what I'm hoping might happen. This article clearly hoping for the same.
I also thought the following about the political manoeuvrings after the referendum was very true:

'One of the reasons why in the years after 2016 Britain pulled towards more and more extreme forms of Brexit was that there was always a partisan or factional advantage on offer to anyone willing to say the government wasn't pro-Brexit enough. It was a way of building a reputation, and garnering flattering write-ups in the Daily Telegraph: it's the only reason, let's be honest, that any of us have even heard of Mark Francois.

But the result was that the Tory party was always under pressure to appease its hardliners. There was no countervailing pressure on the other side because, as loudly as Remainers may have yelled about the downsides of Brexit, they all lay in the future: nobody could actually feel them. Tory moderates did not end up pulling the party back towards sanity: they just ended up outside the party.'


https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2021/02/now-brexit-finally-done-people-will-soon-miss-benefits-eu-membership?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

Don't lose sight of the fact, because I think it is a fact, that many many British people were seriously disaffected with the status  quo, they felt disenfranchised and unrepresented, that the country was run by people who weren't interested in their welfare, by corrupt people who were feathering their own nest while they, the people, were living in a regime of austerity. And also don't forget that twelve months ago it looked as though they had done the right thing in a way: without Brexit would we have had a government which talked about levelling up?

Then Covid came, but Covid is getting under control. Let's see if any levelling up starts to happen over the next couple of years. I own property in Manchester, when I drive through, for example, Oldham, I am horrified by the wasteland, the desolation and the despair. I'm not surprised that the residents needed to make their feelings known loud and clear.

What I'm saying is, there is a possibility that Brexit will, indirectly, result in a UK which is fairer. The country may well be poorer,  but the wealth may be distributed better. We shall see, but if they don't we could have turbulent times ahead - COVID has exacerbated the inequalities.

Miles Platting, near Oldham, Manchester. My heart sinks whenever I drive through it. Normally there is some litter stuck to the metal fence.

(https://manchesterestatepubs.files.wordpress.com/2019/07/p1380444.jpg?w=648)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: MusicTurner on March 04, 2021, 08:57:16 AM
Ordered a new Wuorinen CD from the Presto sales, the price was around 10.5 Euros for the item. But I'd not looked into the rules sufficiently; to get the item sent from the Danish customs, which has now sent me a letter, I have to pay an additional ~ 2.75 Euros in Danish VAT, plus a fee of ~ 21 Euros for the very handling of the payment of that modest VAT amount ... So all in all, not an attractive offer, and I'm done with UK-based Presto from now on, sadly.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on March 04, 2021, 09:02:51 AM
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 04, 2021, 08:57:16 AM
Ordered a new Wuorinen CD from the Presto sales, the price was around 10.5 Euros for the item. But I'd not looked into the rules sufficiently; to get the item sent from the Danish customs, which has now sent me a letter, I have to pay around 2.75 Euros in Danish VAT, plus a fee of around 21 Euros for the very handling of the payment of that modest VAT amount ... So all in all, not an attractive offer, and I'm done with UK-based Presto from now on, sadly.

Ouch!  ???

I can go to €22 including p&p, which accomadates a small box set or 2 CDs.

Dutch customs is a bit less expensive BTW: their handling fee is 13 €....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 04, 2021, 09:05:20 AM
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 04, 2021, 08:57:16 AM
Ordered a new Wuorinen CD from the Presto sales, the price was around 10.5 Euros for the item. But I'd not looked into the rules sufficiently; to get the item sent from the Danish customs, which has now sent me a letter, I have to pay an additional ~ 2.75 Euros in Danish VAT, plus a fee of ~ 21 Euros for the very handling of the payment of that modest VAT amount ... So all in all, not an attractive offer, and I'm done with UK-based Presto from now on, sadly.
Bleh!  ??? ::) A 21 Euro processing fee for a 2.75 Euro payment?!  >:(

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: MusicTurner on March 04, 2021, 09:06:53 AM
Yes, obviously your Dutch fee seems more reasonable; ours is way beyond the actual cost of handling my VAT payment. Sadly, I can't google an alternative local customs authority here  ???
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: steve ridgway on March 04, 2021, 09:08:13 AM
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 04, 2021, 08:57:16 AM
I'm done with UK-based Presto from now on, sadly.

What are the download costs like? FLAC format is CD quality.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: MusicTurner on March 04, 2021, 09:10:41 AM
Quote from: steve ridgway on March 04, 2021, 09:08:13 AM
What are the download costs like? FLAC format is CD quality.

I don't do downloads at all any more, but Presto's prices for example can vary between countries.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: steve ridgway on March 04, 2021, 09:23:09 AM
I tried to order the book The Cambridge History of 19th Century Music from Amazon UK for my father's birthday last month and what the website showed as "Sold and supplied by Amazon" with next day delivery turned out to be some third party that after three days hadn't even sent an estimated delivery date. As they had an AG company name I suspected they were in Europe so cancelled and ordered a slightly more expensive copy from a UK seller. At least he received it with no extra charges even if it was a week late. I'll watch out for that in future. >:(
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Iota on March 04, 2021, 12:10:04 PM
Quote from: Mandryka on March 04, 2021, 07:33:04 AM
Don't lose sight of the fact, because I think it is a fact, that many many British people were seriously disaffected with the status  quo, they felt disenfranchised and unrepresented, that the country was run by people who weren't interested in their welfare, by corrupt people who were feathering their own nest while they, the people, were living in a regime of austerity.

Agree completely. That was one of the big things that the referendum vote made clear. It was a chance for people who normally felt they had absolutely no say in what happened to suddenly make their voices heard, and many Remainers (including myself) said if one good thing was to come out of this it would be that the ever-widening gap between the haves and have-nots could finally be properly addressed. It of course hasn't been, but -

Quote from: Mandryka on March 04, 2021, 07:33:04 AM... also don't forget that twelve months ago it looked as though they had done the right thing in a way: without Brexit would we have had a government which talked about levelling up?

Then Covid came, but Covid is getting under control. Let's see if any levelling up starts to happen over the next couple of years. I own property in Manchester, when I drive through, for example, Oldham, I am horrified by the wasteland, the desolation and the despair. I'm not surprised that the residents needed to make their feelings known loud and clear.

What I'm saying is, there is a possibility that Brexit will, indirectly, result in a UK which is fairer. The country may well be poorer,  but the wealth may be distributed better. We shall see, but if they don't we could have turbulent times ahead - COVID has exacerbated the inequalities.

Miles Platting, near Oldham, Manchester. My heart sinks whenever I drive through it. Normally there is some litter stuck to the metal fence.

(https://manchesterestatepubs.files.wordpress.com/2019/07/p1380444.jpg?w=648)

- they are making gestures of levelling up, which I'm sure almost everybody would support. Rishi Sunak announced a Towns Funds scheme in yesterday's Budget, which will mean £1bn for 45 towns, though heavily skewed towards the ones that voted Tory, which has provoked criticism (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56281774) not just from Starmer. But fair enough, it's a start.
Though the idea that this government will do much willingly to help the underclass, or that the reason the underclass are disenfranchised in the first place had anything substantial to do with our membership the EU, does not to me reflect any kind of reality.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on March 06, 2021, 11:11:40 PM
I think we might be heading for a crisis: Ulster loyalists are distancing themselves from the Good Friday Agreement, the UK government is taking unilateral actions on the NI Protocol and in response the European Parliament is delaying the ratification of the bilateral trade agreement.

More on prof. Chris Grey's "Brexit and Beyond":

Brexit unhinged (https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2021/03/brexit-unhinged.html)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on March 13, 2021, 01:36:15 AM
The predictions of long lines of trucks along the roads to Dover haven't come true.
This is caused by goods destined for the Irish Republic being rerouted and... ..

Exports to EU plunge by 40% in first month since Brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/12/exports-to-eu-plunge-in-first-month-since-brexit-uk-economy)

Imports have gone down less, namely 28%. Which means an increase in the trade deficit with the EU.

This is the data from January. Brexiteers could claim that things will improve.
They might if trade adjusts, but the situation also could worsen even further when various "grace periods" expire in the coming months.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on March 27, 2021, 12:20:42 AM
Hopefully this will bring to end the post-Brexit vaccine spat between the UK and the EU...

The deal comes at the moment on which the UK needs extra supplies of AZ from existing and new production lines located in the EU, to ensure a timely 2nd shot for those already vaccinated in the UK. The UK decided to not keep the 2nd dose aside like some other countries and vaccinated as many of its citizens as possible.

According to EU sources 21 million doses have been exported to the UK sofar. Over the past few weeks the EU has been playing hard ball by treathening with export bans.

QuoteBritain nearing vaccine deal with European Union: The Times (Reuters)
Britain is close to striking a vaccine deal with the European Union as soon as this weekend that will remove the threat of the bloc cutting off supplies, The Times reported on Saturday.

Under the agreement the EU will remove its threat to ban the export of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines to Britain, it added.
In return, the UK government will agree to forgo some long-term supplies of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine that had been due to be exported from Holland, the newspaper reported.

On Friday, the European Medicines Agency approved Halix production site in the Netherlands that makes the AstraZeneca vaccine and a facility in Marburg in Germany producing BioNTech/Pfizer shots.

The EU's clearing of the vaccine site comes as the union is banking on them to boost deliveries in the second quarter and accelerate the slow pace of inoculations in the bloc.

Europe's troubled vaccine rollout has led to a quarrel with Britain, which has imported 21 million doses made in the EU, according to an EU official. Britain says it did a better job negotiating with manufacturers and arranging supply chains.

The EU says that Britain should share more, notably to help make up the shortfall in contracted deliveries of AstraZeneca shots.

Brussels and London sought to cool tensions on Wednesday, declaring they were working "to create a win-win situation and expand vaccine supply for all our citizens".

The UK government, Pfizer-BioNTech, and AstraZeneca were not immediately available for comment after office hours.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on May 01, 2021, 01:15:36 PM

Brexit: European Parliament backs UK trade deal (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56899831)


This final chord in the Brexit saga went largely unnoticed. But Brexit is finally done....kind of...
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: steve ridgway on May 01, 2021, 09:14:05 PM
Yeah, adjustments are still going on but we're past all that "today is a critical day in Parliament" stuff that went on for month after month.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on May 01, 2021, 11:53:41 PM
Quote from: steve ridgway on May 01, 2021, 09:14:05 PM
Yeah, adjustments are still going on but we're past all that "today is a critical day in Parliament" stuff that went on for month after month.

Considering the strains on the UK-EU relationship there were some concerns the European Parliament would back down ftom the deal and make additional demands.  But it decided not to go there....

And there are always loose ends: 5 Brexit fights still brewing (https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-trade-deal-gibraltar-financial-services-5-fights-still-brewing/) (Politico)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: steve ridgway on May 02, 2021, 09:14:33 PM
I noticed the raspberries and baby plum tomatoes we bought yesterday both came from Morocco, so trade is presumably adjusting. And some shops are still selling the French version of Somerset Brie. ;)

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on May 03, 2021, 12:04:43 AM
Good to hear French brie is still available!  And I'm sure Moroccan tomatoes taste as good as Dutch ones.  :)

I haven't seen much lately on the economic impact of Brexit.
Here is an article on Bloomberg: 100 Days of Brexit: Was It as Bad as 'Project Fear' Warned? (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-09/100-days-of-brexit-was-it-as-bad-as-project-fear-warned)

The first impression seems to be that it is certainly not the worst case scenario, but still significant: the long term negative impact on UK GDP is prognosed to be between 3% and 5%.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on May 06, 2021, 07:44:28 AM
Quote from Normandy fishing boss "Were ready for war. We can bring Jersey to its knees if necessary". The British Government replied "At least when the Germans invaded they kept the lights on". ;D
Another quote, this time from Lord Hannan a former Tory MEP and at present at the UK Board of Trade "Our truest friends, like our richest prospects, lie across the oceans. It is clearly time to raise our eyes." 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on May 08, 2021, 03:22:40 AM
The antagonistic perspective behind Brexit, complete with WW II analogies used by the British media and Johnson himself,  is unfortunately a selffulfilling prophesy: the disruption of previous agreements and relations creates by its nature new conflicts...

The French thread of disrupting power supply is foolish. But the these fishermen are fighting for their livelihoods, as did British fishermen before them against Iceland in the Cod Wars (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cod_Wars).

The waters around Jersey are important for fishermen from Normandy. The deal between the UK and the UK was the preservation of existing rights. The French claim that many were denied the permit necessary to continue fishing around Jersey, and that those that got a permit discovered that it came with restrictions that didn't exist before.

Jersey fishing: What's the row between UK and France about? (https://www.bbc.com/news/57001584)

Prospects across the oceans.... Just let me point out that EU membership formed no impedement in any way to international  trade, on the contrary. And the EU is still, by far, the UK's biggest trading partner.

But there is nothing wrong with aspirations.  :)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on May 10, 2021, 08:32:22 AM
Quote from: Que on May 08, 2021, 03:22:40 AM
The antagonistic perspective behind Brexit, complete with WW II analogies used by the British media and Johnson himself,  is unfortunately a selffulfilling prophesy: the disruption of previous agreements and relations creates by its nature new conflicts...

The French thread of disrupting power supply is foolish. But the these fishermen are fighting for their livelihoods, as did British fishermen before them against Iceland in the Cod Wars (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cod_Wars).

The waters around Jersey are important for fishermen from Normandy. The deal between the UK and the UK was the preservation of existing rights. The French claim that many were denied the permit necessary to continue fishing around Jersey, and that those that got a permit discovered that it came with restrictions that didn't exist before.

Jersey fishing: What's the row between UK and France about? (https://www.bbc.com/news/57001584)

Prospects across the oceans.... Just let me point out that EU membership formed no impedement in any way to international  trade, on the contrary. And the EU is still, by far, the UK's biggest trading partner.

But there is nothing wrong with aspirations.  :)

Both my wife and myself voted remain. If a vote tomorrow we would vote leave.
The UK is justly proud of the contribution made in the fight against Nazism in Europe. I see nothing wrong in the odd alluding to the fact.
Jersey are asking for proof that French trawlers have historically fished in waters under their jurisdiction so they are allowed to carry on doing so. It is perfectly OK that the EU demand masses of red tape in the form of reams of paperwork from the UK as a price for leaving the EU but when the boot is on the other foot they don't like it.
Of course to be on friendly terms with the EU is to the advantage of the UK but threatening behaviour of Macron especially (vaccine, fisheries etc), and it is understood he is doing this for political reasons at home, is driving a wedge.   
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Florestan on May 10, 2021, 08:39:35 AM
Quote from: Irons on May 10, 2021, 08:32:22 AM
The UK is justly proud of the contribution made in the fight against Nazism in Europe. I see nothing wrong in the odd alluding to the fact.

Why, of course. There was a time when the UK alone was fighting Nazism while the Soviets were drinking champagne with Hitler's minions --- so spare me, mr. Putin, willya?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on May 10, 2021, 09:05:33 AM
Quote from: Irons on May 10, 2021, 08:32:22 AM
Both my wife and myself voted remain. If a vote tomorrow we would vote leave.
The UK is justly proud of the contribution made in the fight against Nazism in Europe. I see nothing wrong in the odd alluding to the fact.

I wouldn't consider for a second to deny the British their pride in their heroic contribution towards saving democracy in Europe,

But if anything, this episode of European history should be a reason to support European unity, not to abandon it.
Comparing membership of the EU with Nazi occupation, as Johnson did, and comparing leaving the EU with the escape from Dunkirk, as has been done in British media, is just twisted and perverse... It is not only wrong, it is dangerous.

QuoteJersey are asking for proof that French trawlers have historically fished in waters under their jurisdiction so they are allowed to carry on doing so. It is perfectly OK that the EU demand masses of red tape in the form of reams of paperwork from the UK as a price for leaving the EU but when the boot is on the other foot they don't like it.

I explained the claims made by French fishermen. Just to put the imagery of "France is waging war on the UK" in a more appropriate context. Whether these claims are justified or not, is, if differences cannot be overcome,  up to the UK-EU Joint Committee or ultimately to the joint arbitration panel:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/future-relationship-dispute-resolution

QuoteOf course to be on friendly terms with the EU is to the advantage of the UK but threatening behaviour of Macron especially (vaccine, fisheries etc), and it is understood he is doing this for political reasons at home, is driving a wedge

Brexit didn't go down well with the French, who feel abandoned by the British and feel dearly about the European Cause. It was Churchill himself that offered the French a political union at the onset of WW II:

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/britain-and-the-first-attempt-to-build-a-european-union/

So there is French resentment.. Unhelpful and unwise, but it's there...and it didn't suddenly fall out of a clear blue sky.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on May 10, 2021, 10:46:55 AM
Quote from: Que on May 10, 2021, 09:05:33 AM
I wouldn't consider for a second to deny the British their pride in their heroic contribution towards saving democracy in Europe,

But if anything, this episode of European history should be a reason to support European unity, not to abandon it.
Comparing membership of the EU with Nazi occupation, as Johnson did, and comparing leaving the EU with the escape from Dunkirk, as has been done in British media, is just twisted and perverse... It is not only wrong, it is dangerous.

I explained the claims made by French fishermen. Just to put the imagery of "France is waging war on the UK" in a more appropriate context. Whether these claims are justified or not, is, if differences cannot be overcome,  up to the UK-EU Joint Committee or ultimately to the joint arbitration panel:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/future-relationship-dispute-resolution

Brexit didn't go down well with the French, who feel abandoned by the British and feel dearly about the European Cause. It was Churchill himself that offered the French a political union at the onset of WW II:

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/britain-and-the-first-attempt-to-build-a-european-union/

So there is French resentment.. Unhelpful and unwise, but it's there...and it didn't suddenly fall out of a clear blue sky.

Good points, well argued. But as always there are two sides. The British resentment of the French didn't suddenly fall out of a clear blue sky either. I do not know where your quotes come from but the consensus isn't "French are waging war on the UK" more they are being bloody difficult - border controls, vaccine imports and now fisheries. The resentment is clear to see. As for Johnson, he is always at pains to stress "Our European friends" and I can give you many instances of him saying that.   
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Florestan on May 10, 2021, 10:54:19 AM
I don't remember where and when I read the following, but I find it appropriate to the topic.

During the Napoleonic Wars, a French frigate engaged an English one. In the heat of the battle, the French captain tells the English one: You Englishmen fight for money but we Frenchmen fight for honour! --- To which the English captain retorts: Well, everyone fights for what they lack!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on May 10, 2021, 11:24:33 AM
Quote from: Florestan on May 10, 2021, 10:54:19 AM
I don't remember where and when I read the following, but I find it appropriate to the topic.

During the Napoleonic Wars, a French frigate engaged an English one. In the heat of the battle, the French captain tells the English one: You Englishmen fight for money but we Frenchmen fight for honour! --- To which the English captain retorts: Well, everyone fights for what they lack!

Funny.  :D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on May 10, 2021, 11:43:09 AM
Quote from: Irons on May 10, 2021, 10:46:55 AM
Good points, well argued. But as always there are two sides. The British resentment of the French didn't suddenly fall out of a clear blue sky either. I do not know where your quotes come from but the consensus isn't "French are waging war on the UK" more they are being bloody difficult - border controls, vaccine imports and now fisheries. The resentment is clear to see

Absolutely. But I'm afraid that decades of EU bashing in British politics, in a toxic mix with anti-French and anti-German sentiments, have taken their toll. This is not easily undone. I wonder if the major political players in the UK that were involded even realise the damage that they have done, just for their own personal short term political gain. I doubt it.

QuoteAs for Johnson, he is always at pains to stress "Our European friends" and I can give you many instances of him saying that.

He can say it as many times as he wants, it is totally disengenious. Unfortunately. And everybody knows it.
But that's OK. Friendships and alliances are built on mutual respect and trust. But business is business, and that is the current state of bilateral relations. More has been lost than most realise.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Florestan on May 10, 2021, 11:50:43 AM
Quote from: Que on May 10, 2021, 11:43:09 AM
Friendships and alliances are built on mutual respect and trust.

Really? Then why does The Netherlands staunchly oppose Romania's access to the Schengen Area?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on May 10, 2021, 12:12:59 PM
Quote from: Florestan on May 10, 2021, 11:50:43 AM
Really? Then why does The Netherlands staunchly oppose Romania's access to the Schengen Area?

No idea, I wasn't even aware... ::)

But here's a wild guess: could it possibly have something to do with... corruption?  >:D 

Trust and blind faith are not the same.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Florestan on May 10, 2021, 12:27:13 PM
Quote from: Que on May 10, 2021, 12:12:59 PM
No idea, I wasn't even aware... ::)

Of course you weren't. EU is Germany, France,  and The Netherlands first and foremost.  ;D

QuoteBut here's a wild guess: could it possibly have something to do with... corruption?  >:D 

Here's a wilder guess: could it possibly have something to do with illiberal democracy and authoritarianism?  >:D

Heck, no way, as Hungary and Poland are full members of Schengen Area...  ;D

QuoteTrust and blind faith are not the same.

There's a Romanian proverb: Mother for some, pest for others...  ;D

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on May 10, 2021, 01:02:21 PM
Quote from: Florestan on May 10, 2021, 12:27:13 PM

Here's a wilder guess: could it possibly have something to do with illiberal democracy and authoritarianism?  >:D

There's a Romanian proverb: Mother for some, pest for others...  ;D

The European Union is plagued by many serious problems...

But none of them were grounds for the UK to leave the EU.
It left the internal market, which the Brits designed themselves to cut down on red tape, to avoid... red tape... ::)
But instead they got MORE red tape! Imposed on them by the EU!  :o

Huhh?  ???
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Florestan on May 10, 2021, 01:12:03 PM
Quote from: Que on May 10, 2021, 01:02:21 PM
The European Union is plagued by many serious problems...

Say it again, please?

QuoteBut none of them were grounds for the UK to leave the EU.

Bottom line, a majority of the UK people voted to leave the EU. Are you against democracy?



Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: The new erato on May 10, 2021, 01:20:50 PM
I think Que could rephrase it as " but none of them were grounds for voters to vote for UK leaving the EU".

Of course, having gotten into the situation they were, there was no way of neglecting the outcome, though the various ways of leaving the EU were rather opaque.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on May 10, 2021, 01:30:58 PM
Quote from: Florestan on May 10, 2021, 01:12:03 PM
Say it again, please?

The European Union is plagued by many serious problems. Happy?  :D

QuoteBottom line, a majority of the UK people voted to leave the EU. Are you against democracy?

Of course I was referring to the reasons for, or the arguments that inspired, the democratic decision to leave. Thank you, new erato. :)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Papy Oli on May 10, 2021, 01:31:52 PM
Quote from: Irons on May 10, 2021, 10:46:55 AM
Good points, well argued. But as always there are two sides. The British resentment of the French didn't suddenly fall out of a clear blue sky either. I do not know where your quotes come from but the consensus isn't "French are waging war on the UK" more they are being bloody difficult - border controls, vaccine imports and now fisheries. The resentment is clear to see. As for Johnson, he is always at pains to stress "Our European friends" and I can give you many instances of him saying that.

To this post and priors:

From what I have read on the French side, that historical fishing request and licensing implemented by Jersey was brought up by them after and not as a part of the transition agreement that was agreed by all sides on fishing.

If that is indeed the case, it seems Jersey simply followed the path of moving the goal post when they suddenly read it or decided it was not actually suitable to them any more. I wonder who else did that before. Oh yes, that fellow who signed an agreement with his "European friends", voted for it, reneged it completely and blamed others in the process. That "mass of red tape" the EU implements now to the UK is, sadly, part of what was negotiated by the UK. Shouldn't it be taken up with whoever negotiated it, signed it and and had his mates to vote for it in the Parliament ?

As many statements that Prime minister can make (and their contrary depending where the wind has blown him over the years), they are not even worth the expensive donor-funded (allegedly) wallpaper roll it could be printed on.

Your mileage may vary of course.

Macron has made many mistakes of his own in the last few months too, I recognise that by the way.

As for the French/English thing, shortly, based on the Daily Mail headlines last week during that fishing kerfuffle or during the Brexit negotiations in the last 5 years, that particular, let's call it (important?) "fringe", could do well sometimes to learn to move on from that war worn-out "argument" or (at best) "banter".  The UK does the remembrance every year in the most perfect way for the fallen soldiers. It is a shame that those fritzes and frogs undertones are being rolled out at every opportunity by that particular press and some of their readers as it just undermines whichever remembrance they suddenly feel like embracing one week a year in their own flurry of patriotic poppies. 

Again, your perspective may vary. This is just mine, a Frenchman living nearly half his life in the UK, my home. A home I love but for which I am too at pains over the last 5 years.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on May 10, 2021, 02:53:39 PM
WWII has come up, and I think it is crucial in understanding the mindset that led to Brexit.

I guess you have to be part of the "defeated" nations in Europe to truly understand the importance of mutual reconciliation and cooperation, and putting its importance above anything else to achieve lasting peace and prosperity.

The UK has never been interested in participating in reconciliation. It deemed its wartime conduct to be beyond reproach and acted as a benevolent victor. Its attitude towards the rest of Europe has been purely instrumental: urging them to become friends, stop being a nuisance and form a shield against Soviet influence.

"Victorious" nations, empires, no matter how benevolent they are, do not put their self interest second to anyone else's. Not even to that of an alliance in which they play an import part. Only when the UK's empire went in decline and it became Europe's "sick man", it was prepared to eat humble pie and practically begged France to be admitted as a member of the European Community. It was only admitted when De Gaulle was out of the picture. You would think De Gaulle would have agreed to UK membership out of gratitude for its wartime effort, but he knew better... The UK never intended to become a team player.

EC/EU membership gave the UK the opportunity to reinvent itself as the transatlantic link between the superpower USA and Europe. The EC/EU was instrumental in bolstering the UK's economic strength by creating the internal market and in furthering the geopolitical agenda of the US by providing political stability in Europe and later by the expansion to the East.

But the influence of the US wained and European integration moved - by necessity - beyond that of just a "free market". Something had to give and national pride had to be swallowed....

But that proved to be a bridge too far for the national psyche of a people of victors, citizens of an empire.
And the rest is history, just as everything leading up to that moment.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on May 10, 2021, 11:58:18 PM
Quote from: Florestan on May 10, 2021, 10:54:19 AM
I don't remember where and when I read the following, but I find it appropriate to the topic.

During the Napoleonic Wars, a French frigate engaged an English one. In the heat of the battle, the French captain tells the English one: You Englishmen fight for money but we Frenchmen fight for honour! --- To which the English captain retorts: Well, everyone fights for what they lack!

;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on May 11, 2021, 12:10:30 AM
Quote from: Papy Oli on May 10, 2021, 01:31:52 PM
To this post and priors:

From what I have read on the French side, that historical fishing request and licensing implemented by Jersey was brought up by them after and not as a part of the transition agreement that was agreed by all sides on fishing.

If that is indeed the case, it seems Jersey simply followed the path of moving the goal post when they suddenly read it or decided it was not actually suitable to them any more. I wonder who else did that before. Oh yes, that fellow who signed an agreement with his "European friends", voted for it, reneged it completely and blamed others in the process. That "mass of red tape" the EU implements now to the UK is, sadly, part of what was negotiated by the UK. Shouldn't it be taken up with whoever negotiated it, signed it and and had his mates to vote for it in the Parliament ?

As many statements that Prime minister can make (and their contrary depending where the wind has blown him over the years), they are not even worth the expensive donor-funded (allegedly) wallpaper roll it could be printed on.

Your mileage may vary of course.

Macron has made many mistakes of his own in the last few months too, I recognise that by the way.

As for the French/English thing, shortly, based on the Daily Mail headlines last week during that fishing kerfuffle or during the Brexit negotiations in the last 5 years, that particular, let's call it (important?) "fringe", could do well sometimes to learn to move on from that war worn-out "argument" or (at best) "banter".  The UK does the remembrance every year in the most perfect way for the fallen soldiers. It is a shame that those fritzes and frogs undertones are being rolled out at every opportunity by that particular press and some of their readers as it just undermines whichever remembrance they suddenly feel like embracing one week a year in their own flurry of patriotic poppies. 

Again, your perspective may vary. This is just mine, a Frenchman living nearly half his life in the UK, my home. A home I love but for which I am too at pains over the last 5 years.

It must be difficult for you, Olivier. I would find it equally difficult to live in France - although I would love to - mind you not being able to speak, or more importantly read a word of French would be handy.

The wallpaper is with respect a cheap shot which didn't work out well for Starmer. Of course, I will not mention a certain Mr Sarkozy.  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on May 11, 2021, 12:25:42 AM
Quote from: Que on May 10, 2021, 02:53:39 PM
WWII has come up, and I think it is crucial in understanding the mindset that led to Brexit.

I guess you have to be part of the "defeated" nations in Europe to truly understand the importance of mutual reconciliation and cooperation, and putting its importance above anything else to achieve lasting peace and prosperity.

The UK has never been interested in participating in reconciliation. It deemed its wartime conduct to be beyond reproach and acted as a benevolent victor. Its attitude towards the rest of Europe has been purely instrumental: urging them to become friends, stop being a nuisance and form a shield against Soviet influence.

"Victorious" nations, empires, no matter how benevolent they are, do not put their self interest second to anyone else's. Not even to that of an alliance in which they play an import part. Only when the UK's empire went in decline and it became Europe's "sick man", it was prepared to eat humble pie and practically begged France to be admitted as a member of the European Community. It was only admitted when De Gaulle was out of the picture. You would think De Gaulle would have agreed to UK membership out of gratitude for its wartime effort, but he knew better... The UK never intended to become a team player.

EC/EU membership gave the UK the opportunity to reinvent itself as the transatlantic link between the superpower USA and Europe. The EC/EU was instrumental in bolstering the UK's economic strength by creating the internal market and in furthering the geopolitical agenda of the US by providing political stability in Europe and later by the expansion to the East.

But the influence of the US wained and European integration moved - by necessity - beyond that of just a "free market". Something had to give and national pride had to be swallowed....

But that proved to be a bridge too far for the national psyche of a people of victors, citizens of an empire.
And the rest is history, just as everything leading up to that moment.

I agree with most of what you say. The UK does not fit and never has - De Gaulle was right. I am not so sure of your historical perspective, especially WW2. Faded Empire I do agree with. Frankly I believe it is much more simple, the UK is an island cut off from the continent of Europe - in more ways then one. 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Papy Oli on May 11, 2021, 12:49:48 AM
Quote from: Irons on May 11, 2021, 12:10:30 AM
It must be difficult for you, Olivier. I would find it equally difficult to live in France - although I would love to - mind you not being able to speak, or more importantly read a word of French would be handy.

The wallpaper is with respect a cheap shot which didn't work out well for Starmer. Of course, I will not mention a certain Mr Sarkozy.  ;)

At least Sarkozy has been and is being trialled for his offences  ;)

Here, you can just pretend the ministerial code of conduct (which Boris signed too...  pattern, what pattern..  ;) ) doesn't exist and carry on willy-nilly, ignore any accountability, and worse, win vote after vote. Turning a blind eye on what that wallpaper issue actually is and think it's ok is sadly part of the problem. The French would have probably worn yellow jackets in the street for less than that  ;D
Here we just pile up praise on the bumbling fool  :blank:
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: vandermolen on May 11, 2021, 01:59:07 AM
Quote from: Que on May 10, 2021, 02:53:39 PM
WWII has come up, and I think it is crucial in understanding the mindset that led to Brexit.

I guess you have to be part of the "defeated" nations in Europe to truly understand the importance of mutual reconciliation and cooperation, and putting its importance above anything else to achieve lasting peace and prosperity.

The UK has never been interested in participating in reconciliation. It deemed its wartime conduct to be beyond reproach and acted as a benevolent victor. Its attitude towards the rest of Europe has been purely instrumental: urging them to become friends, stop being a nuisance and form a shield against Soviet influence.

"Victorious" nations, empires, no matter how benevolent they are, do not put their self interest second to anyone else's. Not even to that of an alliance in which they play an import part. Only when the UK's empire went in decline and it became Europe's "sick man", it was prepared to eat humble pie and practically begged France to be admitted as a member of the European Community. It was only admitted when De Gaulle was out of the picture. You would think De Gaulle would have agreed to UK membership out of gratitude for its wartime effort, but he knew better... The UK never intended to become a team player.

EC/EU membership gave the UK the opportunity to reinvent itself as the transatlantic link between the superpower USA and Europe. The EC/EU was instrumental in bolstering the UK's economic strength by creating the internal market and in furthering the geopolitical agenda of the US by providing political stability in Europe and later by the expansion to the East.

But the influence of the US wained and European integration moved - by necessity - beyond that of just a "free market". Something had to give and national pride had to be swallowed....

But that proved to be a bridge too far for the national psyche of a people of victors, citizens of an empire.
And the rest is history, just as everything leading up to that moment.
An interesting analysis but, I think, rather sweeping in places. I'm not sure that the UK had 'no intention' of becoming a team player or had no interest in reconciliation after WW2. After all, so much grain was poured into Germany after the war that bread rationing had to be introduced in the UK (bread had never been rationed in the war). Although, it can be argued, that the motivation was to prevent the spread of communism westwards, it nevertheless prevented 1000s of Germans from starving to death. I also suspect that De Gaulle's hostility to UK membership of the EEC/EU was as much to do with Britain's close relationship with the old Empire/Commonwealth countries and also De Gaulle's desire to control the EEC. The great achievement of the EEC was the rapprochement between France and Germany. Churchill himself said that he looked forward to 'a United States of Europe' in order to prevent another war breaking out. Britain should have joined the EEC in 1957 when she had the chance to do so.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on May 11, 2021, 02:05:27 AM
Quote from: Florestan on May 10, 2021, 01:12:03 PM
Bottom line, a majority of the UK people voted to leave the EU. Are you against democracy?

Personally, I'm against the variety of democracy that frightens Scottish people out of voting for independence by telling them that Scotland wouldn't be allowed into the EU as a separate nation, and then drags them out of the EU shortly afterwards against the wish of the Scottish people, and then tries to tell them they couldn't possibly have another independence referendum.

Then there's also the variety of democracy where the people of Northern Ireland voted to remain, because they understood what a colossal problem Brexit would be in Ireland, but got dragged out anyway.

There's a very genuine chance that "UK people" voting to leave the EU will be a key moment in there no longer being a UK.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on May 11, 2021, 02:09:25 AM
ADDENDUM: Then of course there's the minor detail that the fishing dispute has been around the Channel Islands. They didn't even get a vote on Brexit, not least because they weren't part of the EU in the first place.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Florestan on May 11, 2021, 02:55:08 AM
Quote from: Que on May 10, 2021, 01:30:58 PM
The European Union is plagued by many serious problems. Happy?  :D

Actually, what would make me happy is a EU less plagued by such problems.  ;)

My point about Brexit is that motivated or not, reasonable or not, likeable or not, it is done. Dissecting its whys and hows over and over again is not going to undo it. The sooner EU and UK get over it and go their own ways (which may or may not cross), the better for both of them.

As for English pride, it's paralleled only by the French one.  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Florestan on May 11, 2021, 02:59:39 AM
Quote from: Madiel on May 11, 2021, 02:05:27 AM
There's a very genuine chance that "UK people" voting to leave the EU will be a key moment in there no longer being a UK.

There is, indeed.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on May 11, 2021, 06:58:07 AM
Quote from: Florestan on May 11, 2021, 02:55:08 AM
Actually, what would make me happy is a EU less plagued by such problems.  ;)

My point about Brexit is that motivated or not, reasonable or not, likeable or not, it is done. Dissecting its whys and hows over and over again is not going to undo it. The sooner EU and UK get over it and go their own ways (which may or may not cross), the better for both of them.

As for English pride, it's paralleled only by the French one.  ;D

I wish.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on May 11, 2021, 07:13:08 AM
Quote from: Papy Oli on May 11, 2021, 12:49:48 AM
At least Sarkozy has been and is being trialled for his offences  ;)

Here, you can just pretend the ministerial code of conduct (which Boris signed too...  pattern, what pattern..  ;) ) doesn't exist and carry on willy-nilly, ignore any accountability, and worse, win vote after vote. Turning a blind eye on what that wallpaper issue actually is and think it's ok is sadly part of the problem. The French would have probably worn yellow jackets in the street for less than that  ;D
Here we just pile up praise on the bumbling fool  :blank:

Johnson is a lot of things but "bumbling fool" he is not. That the forces against him underestimate him is his strength. His personal life is chaotic with ex-wives and live-in girlfriends, but do you know what, this mirrors how people live in this day and age - and I'm saying that as someone who will proudly celebrate a 50 year wedding anniversary in December - the good folk of Cleethorpes and Hartlepool could not give a toss where his wallpaper comes from, with the proviso it is not tax payers money. That would be serious.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Papy Oli on May 11, 2021, 07:55:42 AM
Quote from: Irons on May 11, 2021, 07:13:08 AM
Johnson is a lot of things but "bumbling fool" he is not. That the forces against him underestimate him is his strength. His personal life is chaotic with ex-wives and live-in girlfriends, but do you know what, this mirrors how people live in this day and age - and I'm saying that as someone who will proudly celebrate a 50 year wedding anniversary in December - the good folk of Cleethorpes and Hartlepool could not give a toss where his wallpaper comes from, with the proviso it is not tax payers money. That would be serious.

We agree, the financing source of the refurbishment is the heart of the issue. Maybe one day we'll find out...or probably not.

What you are saying above raises more questions for me but we'd better move on, we could argue respectfully until we are blue/red/yellow/green/Plaid Cymru in the face (tick where applicable)  :P 

Also I have a Tuesday pork roast to prepare (see, I still love England) ;D

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on May 11, 2021, 08:18:43 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on May 11, 2021, 01:59:07 AM
An interesting analysis but, I think, rather sweeping in places.
Agreed.  :)

Quote from: Florestan on May 11, 2021, 02:55:08 AM
Actually, what would make me happy is a EU less plagued by such problems.  ;)

Me too!  :)

QuoteMy point about Brexit is that motivated or not, reasonable or not, likeable or not, it is done. Dissecting its whys and hows over and over again is not going to undo it. The sooner EU and UK get over it and go their own ways (which may or may not cross), the better for both of them.

Here we have a different perspective... I don't think Brexit is done, and I doubt it will be anytime soon.

Why? Because Brexit hasn't resolved the difficulties surrounding the relationship between the UK and the rest of Europe. It has only deepened them. Europe is too important for the UK's safety and prosperity to ignore. And reversely the UK is too important for the future of the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: vandermolen on May 11, 2021, 11:08:10 PM
Quote from: Que on May 11, 2021, 08:18:43 AM

Here we have a different perspective... I don't think Brexit is done, and I doubt it will be anytime soon.

Why? Because Brexit hasn't resolved the difficulties surrounding the relationship between the UK and the rest of Europe. It has only deepened them. Europe is too important for the UK's safety and prosperity to ignore. And reversely the UK is too important for the future of the EU.
Agreed  :)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on May 12, 2021, 12:05:29 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on May 11, 2021, 11:08:10 PM
Agreed  :)

The thing I find difficult to understand Jeffrey is that we joined the European Free Market and of course we wanted to. As a trading collective it was and is second to none. Since the Maastricht Treaty the EU has taken a political role and even mooted an Army. Have we not Nato to protect world piece?

I read in my newspaper that Barnier plans to restrict immigration to the EU. 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on May 12, 2021, 01:36:06 AM
Quote from: Irons on May 12, 2021, 12:05:29 AM
The thing I find difficult to understand Jeffrey is that we joined the European Free Market and of course we wanted to. As a trading collective it was and is second to none. Since the Maastricht Treaty the EU has taken a political role and even mooted an Army. Have we not Nato to protect world piece?

I read in my newspaper that Barnier plans to restrict immigration to the EU.

I would agree, as an outside observer, that the EU has gone to some curious places without seemingly having a proper discussion about what the EU's role actually is. In some ways it's occupying an uncanny valley between being a group of nations cooperating with each other and being a nation in and of itself.

The Euro was the thing that really highlighted this for me (of course the UK never became part of the Eurozone). The Euro was great for Germany, but really quite terrible for some countries such as Greece who lost control of a key tool in fiscal policy (currency fluctuation), while supposedly still being responsible for their own fiscal policy.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: The new erato on May 12, 2021, 01:49:58 AM
Quote from: Madiel on May 12, 2021, 01:36:06 AM
I would agree, as an outside observer, that the EU has gone to some curious places without seemingly having a proper discussion about what the EU's role actually is. In some ways it's occupying an uncanny valley between being a group of nations cooperating with each other and being a nation in and of itself.

The Euro was the thing that really highlighted this for me (of course the UK never became part of the Eurozone). The Euro was great for Germany, but really quite terrible for some countries such as Greece who lost control of a key tool in fiscal policy (currency fluctuation), while supposedly still being responsible for their own fiscal policy.
+1 from me. Particularly regarding the Euro.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: vandermolen on May 12, 2021, 02:10:31 AM
Quote from: Irons on May 12, 2021, 12:05:29 AM
The thing I find difficult to understand Jeffrey is that we joined the European Free Market and of course we wanted to. As a trading collective it was and is second to none. Since the Maastricht Treaty the EU has taken a political role and even mooted an Army. Have we not Nato to protect world piece?

I read in my newspaper that Barnier plans to restrict immigration to the EU.
Totally agree Lol. We also had EFTA which was a purely trading organisation. I was never happy about the political side of the EU, although I guess that it gave Europe more voice in the face of an aggressive USSR/Russia/China.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on May 12, 2021, 02:19:00 AM
Quote from: Irons on May 12, 2021, 12:05:29 AM
The thing I find difficult to understand Jeffrey is that we joined the European Free Market and of course we wanted to. As a trading collective it was and is second to none. Since the Maastricht Treaty the EU has taken a political role and even mooted an Army. Have we not Nato to protect world piece?

I totally understand this perspective from the UK,  and it has been clear throughout its membership that it was in for the economic cooperation and not for a politcal union. And the debate leading to Brexit was very much about the choice between staying in the Union, or to leave but remain part of the free (internal) market.

But somehow the take-back-control narrative poisened the debate after the referendum to the extent that it turned into an all-or-nothing game, and the UK ended up outside the internal market. Which still doesn't make any sense... I therefore expect the UK to move  back towards closer economic cooperation with the EU in the future. Possibly rejoining the internal market with some codecision arrangements.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on May 12, 2021, 07:12:15 AM
I was beginning to feel in a lonely place, so thanks to Madiel, The New erato, vandermolen and Que for banishing the thought. Let me be clear, I'm not a little Englander, far from it, I love the cultures of the countries that make up the EU and traveling to them is an enriching experience. The referendum was political expediency by the Tories to nullify Farage who was a grave threat to them remaining in power. The miss-calculation was that huge swathes of the UK were fed up and the referendum was a way of showing it. Where I blame the EU is that they miss-calculated also. When Cameron came with the begging bowl they said sod off and get on with it! It was this that set the wheels of Brexit in motion. Now it is the blame-game on both sides. Very sad. 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: vandermolen on May 13, 2021, 09:17:13 AM
Quote from: Irons on May 12, 2021, 07:12:15 AM
I was beginning to feel in a lonely place, so thanks to Madiel, The New erato, vandermolen and Que for banishing the thought. Let me be clear, I'm not a little Englander, far from it, I love the cultures of the countries that make up the EU and traveling to them is an enriching experience. The referendum was political expediency by the Tories to nullify Farage who was a grave threat to them remaining in power. The miss-calculation was that huge swathes of the UK were fed up and the referendum was a way of showing it. Where I blame the EU is that they miss-calculated also. When Cameron came with the begging bowl they said sod off and get on with it! It was this that set the wheels of Brexit in motion. Now it is the blame-game on both sides. Very sad.
+1 I agree - all v depressing I must say. For Johnson I think that supporting Brexit was a cynical calculation in order to become PM.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on May 14, 2021, 07:25:47 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on May 13, 2021, 09:17:13 AM
+1 I agree - all v depressing I must say. For Johnson I think that supporting Brexit was a cynical calculation in order to become PM.

Yes, I think so too. Cameron backed the wrong horse and fell on his sword. With the events surrounding Greensill probably good thing he has gone. Once the Brexit die was cast oddly I think it advantageous not to have a rabid Brexiteer steering the ship. Johnson for all his faults, aware the list is long, is possibly the right man at the right time. You have to ask, who else?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on May 15, 2021, 03:42:57 AM
Quote from: Irons on May 14, 2021, 07:25:47 AM
Once the Brexit die was cast oddly I think it advantageous not to have a rabid Brexiteer steering the ship.

Once the Brexit die was cast, folk like Boris Johnson were more than happy to let Teresa May be the one steering the ship.

It's an old trick. The one time women are allowed to have power is when things look bad. All the men step back so that they don't have to cop the trouble they can all see coming. They'll wait for afterwards.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on May 15, 2021, 06:26:17 AM
Quote from: Madiel on May 15, 2021, 03:42:57 AM
Once the Brexit die was cast, folk like Boris Johnson were more than happy to let Teresa May be the one steering the ship.

It's an old trick. The one time women are allowed to have power is when things look bad. All the men step back so that they don't have to cop the trouble they can all see coming. They'll wait for afterwards.

Odd that May was one of the best Home Secretaries in modern times but a poor PM. The men stepped back when Maggie Thatcher took over and when they stepped forward she bashed them with her handbag!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: JBS on May 15, 2021, 07:43:44 AM
Quote from: Irons on May 15, 2021, 06:26:17 AM
Odd that May was one of the best Home Secretaries in modern times but a poor PM. The men stepped back when Maggie Thatcher took over and when they stepped forward she bashed them with her handbag!

To me, sitting across the ocean, it seems as if May honestly tried to square the circle, whereas Johnson it was enough to look like he was trying.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on May 15, 2021, 10:25:48 AM
Quote from: JBS on May 15, 2021, 07:43:44 AM
To me, sitting across the ocean, it seems as if May honestly tried to square the circle, whereas Johnson it was enough to look like he was trying.
Not totally certain what you mean about trying to square the circle, but I do think that she was trying hard to look our for the UK's interests and dealing with an awful situation to begin with.  And yes, I agree with you what I've read/seen about Johnson from this side of the pond.  Do most British people here feel the same?  Mind you, this is an outsider's perception.

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on May 15, 2021, 07:32:27 PM
Quote from: JBS on May 15, 2021, 07:43:44 AM
To me, sitting across the ocean, it seems as if May honestly tried to square the circle, whereas Johnson it was enough to look like he was trying.

Exactly.

I also note that when she won the leadership, it was against another woman.

Australia too has a considerable history at State/Territory level of women being allowed to have the leadership when things look dire.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on May 16, 2021, 12:53:25 AM
Quote from: JBS on May 15, 2021, 07:43:44 AM
To me, sitting across the ocean, it seems as if May honestly tried to square the circle, whereas Johnson it was enough to look like he was trying.

Nail on head - impossible to square a circle. I was judging May not so much as a person but as a politician. She announced she would not call an election, then did. Worse, after a disastrous campaign she had a wafer-thin majority and had to resort to bribing the DUP to bail her out. Her political weakness was a huge advantage for the EU in Brexit negotiations which they made full advantage of - so they should. It was only after Johnson won a thumping majority that Brexit happened, for good or ill but what the electorate voted for.   
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on May 16, 2021, 02:13:34 AM
Quote from: Irons on May 16, 2021, 12:53:25 AM
It was only after Johnson won a thumping majority that Brexit happened, for good or ill but what the electorate voted for.   

You do realise that half the time May had members of her own party voting against the deal with the EU?

It was a colossal mess. May was completely right when she said to the whole House of Commons, they kept saying what they didn't want and couldn't articulate what they DID want. Every permutation would come up with a minority.

And how did Johnson get past that? By doing a deal with the EU but then almost immediately turning around and suggesting that the UK would breach international law when it felt like it. I guess that was May's mistake in your eyes, eh, actually trying to play by the rules.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on May 16, 2021, 06:13:23 AM
Quote from: Madiel on May 16, 2021, 02:13:34 AM
You do realise that half the time May had members of her own party voting against the deal with the EU?

It was a colossal mess. May was completely right when she said to the whole House of Commons, they kept saying what they didn't want and couldn't articulate what they DID want. Every permutation would come up with a minority.

And how did Johnson get past that? By doing a deal with the EU but then almost immediately turning around and suggesting that the UK would breach international law when it felt like it. I guess that was May's mistake in your eyes, eh, actually trying to play by the rules.

I read what you say. May didn't have a powerful parliamentary majority, Johnson does.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on May 16, 2021, 01:29:20 PM
My point was that May had members of her own party that had no intention of letting her succeed.

Boris was probably one of them.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on May 16, 2021, 11:42:47 PM
Quote from: Madiel on May 16, 2021, 01:29:20 PM
My point was that May had members of her own party that had no intention of letting her succeed.

Boris was probably one of them.

Yes, we essentially are saying the same. "The awkward squad" as they were called, a group of Tory remain MP's led May a merry dance. Brexit was never going to happen as they blocked it at every vote. When Johnson won the landslide election victory he gave the group an ultimatum, vote for Brexit or you will all be expelled from the party. A Tory will always put self-preservation over principle - where is Dominic Grieve now? (An old-style posh Tory who occasionally came in the shop I owned).
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mandryka on June 10, 2021, 08:19:39 AM
No-one will be able to destroy the British sausage, insists minister

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/westminster-news/brexit-sausage-ranil-jayawardena-8042434
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: steve ridgway on June 10, 2021, 10:04:45 PM
Quote from: Mandryka on June 10, 2021, 08:19:39 AM
No-one will be able to destroy the British sausage, insists minister

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/westminster-news/brexit-sausage-ranil-jayawardena-8042434

I destroyed one only yesterday. :P Sadly though those sold in cafes and vans are often badly degraded if not outright suitable for vegans, so I always go for a bacon sandwich instead.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on June 10, 2021, 10:22:26 PM
Quote from: Mandryka on June 10, 2021, 08:19:39 AM
No-one will be able to destroy the British sausage, insists minister

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/westminster-news/brexit-sausage-ranil-jayawardena-8042434

I found the article entertaining but utterly confusing about what the problem is?

Difficulties with exporting these sausages will destroy them?  ::)

I didn't know these were actually eaten on "The Continent"?  :D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on June 11, 2021, 11:58:38 PM
The bit about being a sovereign nation is so stupid. Sovereignty doesn't mean you can force other countries to buy your product if it's crappy.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on June 12, 2021, 01:23:02 AM
Quote from: Que on June 10, 2021, 10:22:26 PM
I found the article entertaining but utterly confusing about what the problem is?

Difficulties with exporting these sausages will destroy them?  ::)

I didn't know these were actually eaten on "The Continent"?  :D

I'm geting a better picture now...

Since NI is de facto part of the internal market to prevent checks on the Irish-Irish border, the border between the internal market and (the rest of the) UK lies in the Irish Sea. EU food safety regulations stipulate that meat products imported from outside imported into the internal market can only be frozen not chilled. Because of the status of Northern Ireland, with the lapse of the grace period of 6 months this rule also apllies to meat exports to NI from the rest of the UK.

The EU urged the UK to agree to a Swiss-style "agri-food" deal, which would eliminate roughly 80 percent of checks. But the UK doesn't want to commit to an agreement on food standards with the EU. Sovereignty and all that...

So basically this is the old debate on Northern Ireland. Which can either be part of the internal market or not, but not something in between... One thing is certain: this problem is not going away. ..


What is the Brexit 'sausage war' all about? (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-sausage-war-uk-eu-b1862377.html)

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: steve ridgway on June 12, 2021, 03:26:58 AM
Quote from: Que on June 12, 2021, 01:23:02 AM
I'm geting a better picture now...

Since NI is de facto part of the internal market to prevent checks on the Irish-Irish border, the border between the internal market and (the rest of the) UK lies in the Irish Sea. EU food safety regulations stipulate that meat products imported from outside imported into the internal market can only be frozen not chilled. Because of the status of Northern Ireland, with the lapse of the grace period of 6 months this rule also apllies to meat exports to NI from the rest of the UK.

The EU urged the UK to agree to a Swiss-style "agri-food" deal, which would eliminate roughly 80 percent of checks. But the UK doesn't want to commit to an agreement on food standards with the EU. Sovereignty and all that...

So basically this is the old debate on Northern Ireland. Which can either be part of the internal market or not, but not something in between... One thing is certain: this problem is not going away. ..


What is the Brexit 'sausage war' all about? (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-sausage-war-uk-eu-b1862377.html)

Yes, Northern Ireland will either have to make their own sausages or buy them from the Republic Of Ireland. Unless they want to eat Frankenstein Food. :'(

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Florestan on June 12, 2021, 06:28:47 AM
Quote from: Madiel on May 12, 2021, 01:36:06 AM
I would agree, as an outside observer, that the EU has gone to some curious places without seemingly having a proper discussion about what the EU's role actually is. In some ways it's occupying an uncanny valley between being a group of nations cooperating with each other and being a nation in and of itself.

The Euro was the thing that really highlighted this for me (of course the UK never became part of the Eurozone). The Euro was great for Germany, but really quite terrible for some countries such as Greece who lost control of a key tool in fiscal policy (currency fluctuation), while supposedly still being responsible for their own fiscal policy.

I missed this post at the time, but now that I read it I can't help nodding in agreement.

Although all Romanian parties proclaim their firm committment to joining the Euro asap, I do hope they won't succeed any time soon. In the current, or near future foreseeable, state of our economy it would be a catastrophe.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: North Star on June 12, 2021, 12:48:05 PM
Quote from: Que on June 12, 2021, 01:23:02 AMThe EU urged the UK to agree to a Swiss-style "agri-food" deal, which would eliminate roughly 80 percent of checks. But the UK doesn't want to commit to an agreement on food standards with the EU. Sovereignty and all that...
I'm just waiting for BoJo to announce that the UK will abandon the metric system, and that the decimalization of the Pound will be reversed, and to keep the refugees out, Hadrian's Wall will be refortified.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on June 12, 2021, 02:49:56 PM
Meanwhile I'm watching a bit of Euro2020. I'm fascinated by how the UK gets away with saying there are 4 separate countries when it comes to sport, but when it comes to something as important as Brexit, England gets to drag the smaller countries along.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: JBS on June 12, 2021, 06:26:17 PM
Quote from: Madiel on June 12, 2021, 02:49:56 PM
Meanwhile I'm watching a bit of Euro2020. I'm fascinated by how the UK gets away with saying there are 4 separate countries when it comes to sport, but when it comes to something as important as Brexit, England gets to drag the smaller countries along.

The Disunited Kingdom...
But four countries? England, Wales, Scotland--is Northern Ireland the fourth?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on June 12, 2021, 06:34:33 PM
Yes.

Except for the sports where there's an all-Ireland team instead...
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mirror Image on June 12, 2021, 08:07:58 PM
How much longer until Boris Trump is out-of-office? What a horrible PM he is and quite frankly I'm surprised he can even walk in a straight line. A complete doofus and lack of empathy --- he should've been thrown out with yesterday's trash.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on June 13, 2021, 12:45:08 AM
Quote from: Madiel on June 12, 2021, 02:49:56 PM
Meanwhile I'm watching a bit of Euro2020. I'm fascinated by how the UK gets away with saying there are 4 separate countries when it comes to sport, but when it comes to something as important as Brexit, England gets to drag the smaller countries along.

Good point. Bet Macron didn't think of that.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: steve ridgway on June 13, 2021, 05:38:13 AM
Quote from: North Star on June 12, 2021, 12:48:05 PM
I'm just waiting for BoJo to announce that the UK will abandon the metric system, and that the decimalization of the Pound will be reversed, and to keep the refugees out, Hadrian's Wall will be refortified.

Scotland's leader Nicola Sturgeon will be taking care of Hadrian's Wall. She closed the border for quite some time during the pandemic and I think has currently barred her subjects from visiting certain areas of England such as Blackburn. Imperial measures and currency were really good for developing mental arithmetic skills though - as a child I often had to calculate the correct change in the 12 pennies per shilling, 20 shillings per pound system in my head to avoid being swindled by one unscrupulous shop owner in particular.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on August 08, 2021, 06:53:20 AM
For those who were under the impression that Brexit is "done", a little insight in (some of the) things still to come:

Customs declarations for imports
• 1 July 2021: Delayed declarations for imports made on 1 January 2021 must be made by 25 June 2021. The option to clear goods using delayed declarations has been extended until 1 January 2022. Supplementary declarations must be submitted no later than 175 days after the date of import.
• Until 1 January 2022: Border locations without existing customs control systems at the end of transition will not be required to control goods on the basis of declarations. Until then declarations for all goods imported at such locations will need to be made before the goods arrive, either in the declarants' records or in HMRC's systems. Where declarations are made into HMRC systems traders have up to 11:59pm on the day after the day on which the goods arrived to notify HMRC that the goods have entered the country.
• 1 January 2022: Full customs declarations for imports will be required, the option for the delayed declaration scheme comes to an end. Safety and Security Declarations for imports will be required.

Sanitary and Phytosanitary controls
• 1 October 2021: Pre-notification requirements for Products of Animal Origin  (POAO), low-risk animal by-products not for human consumption (ABP), and High Risk Food Not Of Animal Origin (HRFNAO) come into force. Health certificate requirements for POAO and ABP will also come into force.
• 1 January 2022: Physical SPS checks for POAO, ABP, germinal products and HRFNAO will take place at Border Control Posts.
• 1 January 2022: Physical SPS checks on high-priority plants will take place at Border Control Posts, rather than at Places of Destination as now.
• 1 January 2022: Pre-notification requirements and documentary checks, including phytosanitary certificates will be required for all regulated plants and plant products.
• March 2022: Checks at Border Control Posts will take place on all regulated plants and plant products.
• From March 2022: Live animal checks will continue to be carried out at the point of destination as introduced on 1 January 2021. Live animal checks will move from the point of destination to designated BCPs when sufficient capacity allows.


https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-border-operating-model
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on August 09, 2021, 01:04:57 AM
Quote from: steve ridgway on June 13, 2021, 05:38:13 AM
Scotland's leader Nicola Sturgeon will be taking care of Hadrian's Wall. She closed the border for quite some time during the pandemic and I think has currently barred her subjects from visiting certain areas of England such as Blackburn. Imperial measures and currency were really good for developing mental arithmetic skills though - as a child I often had to calculate the correct change in the 12 pennies per shilling, 20 shillings per pound system in my head to avoid being swindled by one unscrupulous shop owner in particular.

To keep the cruise industry "afloat" during the pandemic companies such as PO came up with the idea of around Britain cruises. Sturgeon banned them from Scottish ports which took the gloss off the idea. I would have been tempted by a visit to the Scottish islands.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on August 09, 2021, 04:21:40 AM
Quote from: Que on August 08, 2021, 06:53:20 AM
For those who were under the impression that Brexit is "done", a little insight in (some of the) things still to come:

Customs declarations for imports
• 1 July 2021: Delayed declarations for imports made on 1 January 2021 must be made by 25 June 2021. The option to clear goods using delayed declarations has been extended until 1 January 2022. Supplementary declarations must be submitted no later than 175 days after the date of import.
• Until 1 January 2022: Border locations without existing customs control systems at the end of transition will not be required to control goods on the basis of declarations. Until then declarations for all goods imported at such locations will need to be made before the goods arrive, either in the declarants' records or in HMRC's systems. Where declarations are made into HMRC systems traders have up to 11:59pm on the day after the day on which the goods arrived to notify HMRC that the goods have entered the country.
• 1 January 2022: Full customs declarations for imports will be required, the option for the delayed declaration scheme comes to an end. Safety and Security Declarations for imports will be required.

Sanitary and Phytosanitary controls
• 1 October 2021: Pre-notification requirements for Products of Animal Origin  (POAO), low-risk animal by-products not for human consumption (ABP), and High Risk Food Not Of Animal Origin (HRFNAO) come into force. Health certificate requirements for POAO and ABP will also come into force.
• 1 January 2022: Physical SPS checks for POAO, ABP, germinal products and HRFNAO will take place at Border Control Posts.
• 1 January 2022: Physical SPS checks on high-priority plants will take place at Border Control Posts, rather than at Places of Destination as now.
• 1 January 2022: Pre-notification requirements and documentary checks, including phytosanitary certificates will be required for all regulated plants and plant products.
• March 2022: Checks at Border Control Posts will take place on all regulated plants and plant products.
• From March 2022: Live animal checks will continue to be carried out at the point of destination as introduced on 1 January 2021. Live animal checks will move from the point of destination to designated BCPs when sufficient capacity allows.


https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-border-operating-model
This sounds like a major headache!  :(

Quote from: Irons on August 09, 2021, 01:04:57 AM
To keep the cruise industry "afloat" during the pandemic companies such as PO came up with the idea of around Britain cruises. Sturgeon banned them from Scottish ports which took the gloss off the idea. I would have been tempted by a visit to the Scottish islands.
A fleeting hope....  :(

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: steve ridgway on August 24, 2021, 08:18:02 AM
There have been a lot of empty shelves in the shops for a few weeks now due to the shortage of lorry drivers, and now it's caused McDonald's to run out of milkshakes.

Analysis of the latest ONS Labour Force Survey for the second quarter suggests that 14,000 EU lorry drivers left jobs in the UK in the year to June 2020, but only 600 had returned by July 2021.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58315152 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58315152)

Fortunately there are plenty of prisoners available to keep the meat industry going.

Meat industry leaders held talks with the government on Monday to discuss options of how businesses could link up with prisons to fill vacancies.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58303679 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58303679)

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on August 24, 2021, 12:16:05 PM
The situation would be much worse if the UK hadn't postponed the introduction of import checks on, amongst other things, fresh produce and other foods from the EU.

This is against WTO (World Trade Organisation) rules, since it favours EU imports over imports from other countries.

But honestly, I doubt if these checks will ever be introduced by the UK govt. It simply cannot afford the consequences.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on August 25, 2021, 06:59:42 AM
What kinds of things are you seeing shortages of in grocery stores and supermarkets lately?  Is it mostly processed foods (which I understand had been a problem of here in the US, but since so little of the food that I buy is processed, it has seldom been an issue for me).  The kinds of things that I had heard were issues were things like pre-packaged meals.

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: steve ridgway on August 25, 2021, 07:11:25 AM
Specific things I went looking for were bottled water and wine although there were gaps on the shelves elsewhere. They started talking about Christmas on the news at lunchtime. ::)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on August 25, 2021, 09:02:29 AM
Quote from: steve ridgway on August 25, 2021, 07:11:25 AM
Specific things I went looking for were bottled water and wine although there were gaps on the shelves elsewhere. They started talking about Christmas on the news at lunchtime. ::)
Low on bottled water and wine!  ???  And was the talk about Christmas being to expect shortages of holiday food/treats?  Or that you could be waiting that long for things to return to some sort of normalcy?

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on August 26, 2021, 07:38:24 AM
Quote from: steve ridgway on August 25, 2021, 07:11:25 AM
Specific things I went looking for were bottled water and wine although there were gaps on the shelves elsewhere. They started talking about Christmas on the news at lunchtime. ::)

We have, or rather did have, a collection of garden green waste fortnightly by our local council at a cost of roughly £50 a year. Due to driver shortages bin pickup is now monthly.
Brexit has not been the predicted disaster forecast by opponents, but the one area it has affected UK life is labour shortages caused by workers from the continent returning home. It is a problem and I can only see it getting worse.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on August 26, 2021, 01:49:24 PM
The interesting thing is that that the disruptions of the food supply chains is not caused by food shortages as such, but by labour shortages. This must affect (many) other sectors as well? Labour shortages are very bad for any economy and will drive up prices and by consequence inflation.

Another observation is that in the run up to Brexit immigration, even if the overwhelming of immigrants came to join the UK workforce, was perceived by Brexiteers as a big problem that Brexit was going to fix.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: steve ridgway on August 27, 2021, 03:33:51 AM
Yes Que, it's mostly labour shortages due to relying on EU workers to do the jobs that young people in the UK don't want to do, such as picking fruit and vegetables or pub and restaurant work at minimum wage which is lower for people below 23. And who'd want to start a career in lorry driving with all the talk of self driving vehicles?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: The new erato on August 27, 2021, 04:08:47 AM
So Brexit was about bringing back work to Britons that don't want it?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on August 27, 2021, 04:19:16 AM
Quote from: steve ridgway on August 27, 2021, 03:33:51 AM
Yes Que, it's mostly labour shortages due to relying on EU workers to do the jobs that young people in the UK don't want to do, such as picking fruit and vegetables or pub and restaurant work at minimum wage which is lower for people below 23. And who'd want to start a career in lorry driving with all the talk of self driving vehicles?
As an aside, why are wages lower for people below 23?

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: steve ridgway on August 27, 2021, 04:55:00 AM
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on August 27, 2021, 04:19:16 AM
As an aside, why are wages lower for people below 23?

I suppose it gives the youngest a chance of employment as they'll have no experience whatsoever.

https://www.minimum-wage.co.uk/ (https://www.minimum-wage.co.uk/)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on August 27, 2021, 07:38:27 AM
Quote from: Que on August 26, 2021, 01:49:24 PM
The interesting thing is that that the disruptions of the food supply chains is not caused by food shortages as such, but by labour shortages. This must affect (many) other sectors as well? Labour shortages are very bad for any economy and will drive up prices and by consequence inflation.

Another observation is that in the run up to Brexit immigration, even if the overwhelming of immigrants came to join the UK workforce, was perceived by Brexiteers as a big problem that Brexit was going to fix.

Exactly. Quite ironic.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on August 27, 2021, 12:08:34 PM
I imagine that the long waits experienced by the truck drivers trying to get their loads on through (due to new paperwork, checks, etc.) drove (pardon the pun) a lot of them away too.  Why deal with all of that hassle if you can find some other work less stressful?  Just a thought.

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on August 27, 2021, 08:16:48 PM
Quote from: The new erato on August 27, 2021, 04:08:47 AM
So Brexit was about bringing back work to Britons that don't want it?

Not much different to debates in the US about undocumented immigrants.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on August 27, 2021, 11:50:29 PM
For the time being no import checks on foods. 

Now to that is added an extension of the use of EU product standards and CE marks:

UK in Brexit climbdown as safety rule deadline extended (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/24/uk-brexit-safety-ukca-mark-eu-ce)

My prediction: independent UK product standards are never going to happen.
Setting up a separate certification system is terribly expensive and adding a national certification requirement creates a ton of extra red tape for producers and importers. There will probably be another "fudge" in which EU standards are unilaterally  rubber stamped into UK standards. I believe Brexiteers called that "rule taking"...
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on August 28, 2021, 04:12:24 AM
Quote from: The new erato on August 27, 2021, 04:08:47 AM
So Brexit was about bringing back work to Britons that don't want it?

No. If I have understood correctly, it was done for these two reasons:

1) Detachment from EU regulations allows UK to take steps more easily toward crony capitalism to benefit the rich.
2) Right wing populists such as Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson exploded the ignorance and xenophobia of Brits to advance their political careers.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on August 28, 2021, 06:00:58 AM
Quote from: Que on August 27, 2021, 11:50:29 PM
For the time being no import checks on foods. 

Now to that is added an extension of the use of EU product standards and CE marks:

UK in Brexit climbdown as safety rule deadline extended (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/24/uk-brexit-safety-ukca-mark-eu-ce)

My prediction: independent UK product standards are never going to happen.
Setting up a seperate certification system is terribly expensive and adding a national certification requirement creates a ton of extra red tape for producers and importers. There will probably be another "fudge" in which EU standards are unilaterally  rubber stamped into UK standards. I believe Brexiteers called that "rule taking"...

Australia regularly adopts EU or American standards for things because yes, it really isn't worth it. The UK is of course a bigger population/market than us, but for the bureaucracy that actually has to administer these things (as opposed to the people who voted for Brexit) I can't imagine there's many cases where they look at the EU system and think there's something fundamental they want to change.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on August 28, 2021, 07:01:25 AM
Related to Brexit the EU has since July had new customs practices for orders coming from outside the EU. I have not ordered anything outside the EU for months. I believe ordering Amazons outside the EU is pretty smooth, but ordering from smaller sellers who do not have smooth arrangements seems to be really cumbersome. You need to do customs clearances and pay fees for that and what I am hearing the crappy Finnish postal service (one of the worst functioning things in here) may circulate the package for weeks before finally delivering it to the customer. No thanks!

For this reason, for me who used to order a lot from the UK this situation is really frustrating. Well, I have been ordering a lot more from Germany and locally, but that certainly is limiting compared to the happy days when I was able to order from the US tax free up to 45 euros worth! Nowadays everything is so pricy (taxes/shipping costs) that it doesn't make sense to order from the US. So, Germany and local markets it is... ...it was fun to make business with the Brits, but they ruined it.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on August 29, 2021, 12:38:58 AM
Quote from: Madiel on August 28, 2021, 06:00:58 AM
Australia regularly adopts EU or American standards for things because yes, it really isn't worth it. The UK is of course a bigger population/market than us, but for the bureaucracy that actually has to administer these things (as opposed to the people who voted for Brexit) I can't imagine there's many cases where they look at the EU system and think there's something fundamental they want to change.

Farming?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on August 29, 2021, 01:10:44 AM
Quote from: Irons on August 29, 2021, 12:38:58 AM
Farming?

Could be relevant if it would affect food standards, be it stricter or less strict. Less strict standards would negatively influence the possibility to export the produce to the EU (as well as the well being of animals or humans, and the environment).

Stricter standards, I would be all for it. But the EU already has standards for organically produced foods. See, I can't the point there either.

The problem with more environmental and and animal friendly farming, which I would be strongly in favour of, are not the food standards but is competition. These so needed changes will mostly lead to higher prices. And this is why these changes need to be implemented in a market that can separated from the world market. Or else farmers will be outpriced and financially destroyed by the world market. The internal market of the EU is such a market, that protects European farmers from "unfair" competition.

The UK could do the same and implement its own farming policies and shielding off its national market with import restrictions and subsidising its famers. But can it do so in reality?  ::)

No, of course not...

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on August 29, 2021, 01:58:20 AM
Reuters:

UK growth slows to six-month low as post-lockdown shortages bite -PMI (https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-economic-growth-slowed-again-august-post-lockdown-shortages-bite-pmi-2021-08-23/)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on August 29, 2021, 02:25:04 AM
Quote from: Irons on August 29, 2021, 12:38:58 AM
Farming?

Food exports is one of the areas where Australia specifically ensures that exports to the EU meet the EU's standards, which are quite strict. I know because I happen to have had some involvement in the latest version of our legislation on this point.

I can't imagine the UK saying they want to not bother meeting the EU's strict standards.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on August 29, 2021, 03:44:08 AM
Quote from: Irons on August 29, 2021, 12:38:58 AM
Farming?

Quote from: Que on August 29, 2021, 01:10:44 AM
Could be relevant if it would affect food standards, be it stricter or less strict. Less strict standards would negatively influence the possibility to export the produce to the EU (as well as the well being of animals or humans, and the environment).

Stricter standards, I would be all for it. But the EU already has standards for organically produced foods. See, I can't the point there either.

The problem with more environmental and and animal friendly farming, which I would be strongly in favour of, are not the food standards but is competition. These so needed changes will mostly lead to higher prices. And this is why these changes need to be implemented in a market that can separated from the world market. Or else farmers will be outpriced and financially destroyed by the world market. The internal market of the EU is such a market, that protects European farmers from "unfair" competition.

The UK could do the same and implement its own farming policies and shielding off its national market with import restrictions and subsidising its famers. But can it do so in reality?  ::)

No, of course not...


How many people really want to support their local farmers--or maybe it's a case of *"will vs. want" when it comes down to the bottom line--their wallets....particularly when it's possibly also a choice about sustainable organic farming vs. big commercial growers/businesses?  Obviously, one cannot grow everything everywhere due to differences in climates.

*And as Que mentioned, there's the option of subsidizing its own farmers...and also figuring out how to help get money into the hands of those needing food subsidies and ways for them to be able to use their food stamps/credits at local farmers markets and farm stands, etc.

Anyway, just some thoughts....

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on August 29, 2021, 06:54:32 AM
Quote from: Madiel on August 28, 2021, 06:00:58 AM
Australia regularly adopts EU or American standards for things because yes, it really isn't worth it. The UK is of course a bigger population/market than us, but for the bureaucracy that actually has to administer these things (as opposed to the people who voted for Brexit) I can't imagine there's many cases where they look at the EU system and think there's something fundamental they want to change.

If you are involved in the legislation then as an outsider looking in I'm punching well above my weight. But if I read you correctly that EU and US standards are similar, I am surprised by that considering the furore in the UK that due to Brexit we may import chlorinated chicken from the US.
Why is it assumed that leaving the EU results in lower standards? It ain't necessary so.  :)   
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on August 29, 2021, 08:21:28 AM
Quote from: Irons on August 29, 2021, 06:54:32 AM
If you are involved in the legislation then as an outsider looking in I'm punching well above my weight. But if I read you correctly that EU and US standards are similar, I am surprised by that considering the furore in the UK that due to Brexit we may import chlorinated chicken from the US.

EU and US standards are not (in all areas) similar, but they are two most dominant sets of standards in the world - because of the size of the markets. The EU standards are overall stricter, particular those on food. And they are even more dominant than US standards by consequence. Because if your product meets EU standards, you can sell it not only in the EU but also in the US and anywhere else in the world. This world wide regulatory dominance of the EU, which also applies to competion rules and  consumer protection rules, is just a matter of fact.

QuoteWhy is it assumed that leaving the EU results in lower standards? It ain't necessary so.  :)

No, it isn't. But I haven't heard anything about stricter UK standards. And lower standards will be practically (economically and politically) impossible, so my guess is they will be (stay) the same. Independent in name only.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on August 29, 2021, 01:33:28 PM
Quote from: Irons on August 29, 2021, 06:54:32 AM
If you are involved in the legislation then as an outsider looking in I'm punching well above my weight. But if I read you correctly that EU and US standards are similar, I am surprised by that considering the furore in the UK that due to Brexit we may import chlorinated chicken from the US.
Why is it assumed that leaving the EU results in lower standards? It ain't necessary so.  :)

Que has me correct, I'm not saying EU and US standards are similar, I'm saying that they're dominant. Which one we follow depends on the field bWhen it comes to food export specifically, it's the EU that we pay attention to.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on August 30, 2021, 01:15:43 AM
Quote from: Madiel on August 29, 2021, 01:33:28 PM
Que has me correct, I'm not saying EU and US standards are similar, I'm saying that they're dominant. Which one we follow depends on the field bWhen it comes to food export specifically, it's the EU that we pay attention to.

Then why this?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/australia-uk-trade-deal-food-imports-b1843423.html
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on August 30, 2021, 01:40:31 AM
Quote from: Irons on August 30, 2021, 01:15:43 AM
Then why this?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/australia-uk-trade-deal-food-imports-b1843423.html

1. Because if you're not in the EU, our requirements to meet EU standards don't apply. Same as if we're exporting to the US, our requirements to meet EU standards don't apply. Our system of EU accreditation is relevant for exporters looking to export to the EU.

2. Because scary headlines are the kind of clickbait publicity some people need.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on August 30, 2021, 11:47:33 PM
Quote from: Madiel on August 30, 2021, 01:40:31 AM
1. Because if you're not in the EU, our requirements to meet EU standards don't apply. Same as if we're exporting to the US, our requirements to meet EU standards don't apply. Our system of EU accreditation is relevant for exporters looking to export to the EU.

2. Because scary headlines are the kind of clickbait publicity some people need.

Surely you have your own standards and regulations that by law your exporters have to adhere to no matter who receive your goods. For example there are strict rules in the UK on how livestock are treated, these are not relaxed if for export wherever. Quite the opposite.

I did smile. Many times on this thread newspaper articles are used to support an argument. I do it and its "clickbait".  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on August 31, 2021, 01:58:48 AM
Quote from: Irons on August 30, 2021, 11:47:33 PM
Surely you have your own standards and regulations that by law your exporters have to adhere to no matter who receive your goods. For example there are strict rules in the UK on how livestock are treated, these are not relaxed if for export wherever. Quite the opposite.

I did smile. Many times on this thread newspaper articles are used to support an argument. I do it and its "clickbait".  ;D

I referred to laws about food export, not about what happens on farms. The standards and regulations I'm talking about are standards that basically say "you may only export to the EU if the goods have been produced/prepared at an EU-accredited establishment". From memory meat is where it's particularly relevant. In theory that's a law everyone has to abide by. In practice the law is only relevant to you if you're at least thinking about export to the EU.  I'm sure a lot of businesses in the sector make sure that they meet the EU standards so that they're not closed off from that market, but if you have zero interest in exporting to the EU it's not relevant.

I'm sure people have used newspaper articles many times, but I'm also sure you don't believe that all newspaper articles are interchangeable and of equal merit.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on August 31, 2021, 06:27:31 AM
Quote from: Madiel on August 31, 2021, 01:58:48 AM
I referred to laws about food export, not about what happens on farms. The standards and regulations I'm talking about are standards that basically say "you may only export to the EU if the goods have been produced/prepared at an EU-accredited establishment". From memory meat is where it's particularly relevant. In theory that's a law everyone has to abide by. In practice the law is only relevant to you if you're at least thinking about export to the EU.  I'm sure a lot of businesses in the sector make sure that they meet the EU standards so that they're not closed off from that market, but if you have zero interest in exporting to the EU it's not relevant.

I'm sure people have used newspaper articles many times, but I'm also sure you don't believe that all newspaper articles are interchangeable and of equal merit.

Fair enough.

As a reader of the rag, Daily Mail (I'm a big footie fan, that's my excuse anyway) I thought The Independent a quite highbrow source. Evidently not.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on August 31, 2021, 02:30:34 PM
I don't have a particular beef with the Independent. I have a problem with an article that consists entirely of hypotheticals about what could happen in the future.

Edit: and some of it is just wrong. First thing I looked up? Chlorinated chicken. Permitted level of chlorine in Australia is THE SAME AS IN THE EU. And it's not zero in the EU.

Whereas the permitted level in the US is quite a bit higher. But that's not the story. The story is that if your CHILD is fed Australian chickens they could possibly... be subjected to the same levels of chlorination that have always been possible.

Nothing more than emotional button-pushing. Which is not originally pushed by The Independent, but these days journalists don't have the time or perhaps even the training to do anything beyond repeat whatever they were told.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on September 08, 2021, 02:36:53 AM
"Breathtaking Stupidity" Brexit Lowering Water Standards!

HGV driver shortages are now affecting waste water treatment resulting in the government
letting polluters off the hook if they use Brexit as an excuse for not using the right chemicals
to treat effluent.


Watch the video (https://youtu.be/Vd4WKkujrFU) on Youtube (Maximilien Robespierre (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCSiYkMylC3F_eQfIodMHkOw))
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on September 13, 2021, 08:44:46 AM
EU Brexit controls are pointless bureaucracy, says M&S chairman - Archie Norman says rules on exports 'serve no purpose at all' as UK food standards remain aligned to EU (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/sep/13/uk-delay-brexit-border-checks-food-eu)

I know the situation is kind of sad, but excuse me for having a good laugh about the absurdity of it all.

Yes, it doesn't make any sense to leave an internal market if you remain in regulatory alignment with it, which you have to do out of economic necessity.

I have said this before. I could understand that the UK wanted to abandon the EU as a political project, though that came at significant loss of geopolitical clout as a price. It never made any sense to leave the internal market. That decision wasn't put to the British people and was made out of ignorance  and the political need to hammer the sovereignty point home. The beaches of Dunkirk, and all of that...

It cannot be done and it is pointless economic self harm in its purest form.

Some personal side remarks/ predictions:
- This Tory government will either delay the last phases of (economic) "independence" indefinitely or do a Swiss style deal as proposed by the EU.
- The next (Labour) government is going to rejoin the internal market
- The EU will never allow the UK to rejoin the EU as a member, at least not in this century
- When the UK rejoins the internal market, that would remove the biggest obstacle for Scottish independence.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on September 13, 2021, 11:53:11 AM
Quote from: Que on September 13, 2021, 08:44:46 AM
- The next (Labour) government is going to rejoin the internal market

When is this supposed to happen? How is Labour planning on getting into power? Are they communicating the failures of Boris Johnson/the Conservative Party to the voters in an effective way?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on September 13, 2021, 02:11:56 PM
Quote from: 71 dB on September 13, 2021, 11:53:11 AM
When is this supposed to happen? How is Labour planning on getting into power? Are they communicating the failures of Boris Johnson/the Conservative Party to the voters in an effective way?

When? Given the British political system, years from now.
But the failure of Brexit will be of such nature, that it is hard to see how the Tories are going to win the next elections.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on September 14, 2021, 02:35:08 PM
Surprise....

Brexit: Checks on goods imported from the EU delayed again (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-58556453)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on September 14, 2021, 03:22:20 PM
Quote from: Que on September 13, 2021, 02:11:56 PM
When? Given the British political system, years from now.
But the failure of Brexit will be of such nature, that it is hard to see how the Tories are going to win the next elections.

Please don't underestimate the stupidity and ignorance of voters. The Tories keep blaming the EU for all Brexit problems and people will believe them.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on September 15, 2021, 12:07:18 AM
Quote from: 71 dB on September 14, 2021, 03:22:20 PM
Please don't underestimate the stupidity and ignorance of voters. The Tories keep blaming the EU for all Brexit problems and people will believe them.

The EU and Covid, which an even better distracton.

But UK economic recovery is already behind the EU. And over time the impact of Brexit will steadily grow.
Though this gradual, creeping nature of the economic impact of Brexit might make it easier for politicians to ignore or brush off. This gradual effect is reinforced by the extensive transition periods, the subsequent "grace" periods, and now the unilateral "delays". Brexit is still not fully "done" and the Johnson gvt has realised that actually completing the process will be political suicide.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on September 15, 2021, 01:58:38 AM
Quote from: Que on September 15, 2021, 12:07:18 AM
The EU and Covid, which an even better distracton.

Yes, you're correct! Covid-19 has been a convenient distraction, but hopefully we are seeing it go away in the near future. 

Quote from: Que on September 15, 2021, 12:07:18 AMBut UK economic recovery is already behind the EU. And over time the impact of Brexit will steadily grow.

Yes. Cumulative effects build up.

Quote from: Que on September 15, 2021, 12:07:18 AMThough this gradual, creeping nature of the economic impact of Brexit might make it easier for politicians to ignore or brush off. This gradual effect is reinforced by the extensive transition periods, the subsequent "grace" periods, and now the unilateral "delays". Brexit is still not fully "done" and the Johnson gvt has realised that actually completing the process will be political suicide.

They did this to themselves. They did it to advance their political careers. It is only fitting and fair if this leads to their political suicide.  So far, other people have suffered from the consequencies of Brexit, not the elites who lied to regular people.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: steve ridgway on September 23, 2021, 06:07:09 AM
We're still seeing plenty of random shortages in the shops and now petrol stations are being hit too. :(

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58645712 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58645712)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on September 23, 2021, 07:32:29 AM
Quote from: steve ridgway on September 23, 2021, 06:07:09 AM
We're still seeing plenty of random shortages in the shops and now petrol stations are being hit too. :(

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58645712 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58645712)
Sorry to hear the bad news.  I feel for you!

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on September 23, 2021, 07:33:41 AM
Quote from: steve ridgway on September 23, 2021, 06:07:09 AM
We're still seeing plenty of random shortages in the shops and now petrol stations are being hit too. :(

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58645712 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58645712)

BP = Brexit Problems.  :-\
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: steve ridgway on September 24, 2021, 03:25:34 AM
We were due to fill the car up soon as it had only half a tank left so took the opportunity while we still could. Half the pumps had run dry and people were trying to manoeuvre to those remaining but we dropped lucky. Another filling station on the way back home had a queue of vehicles down the road. And the shop had an actual joint of beef which we haven't seen in a few weeks so we bought that too.  ;D

Britain On Its Arse (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58673567)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on September 24, 2021, 06:19:37 AM
Quote from: steve ridgway on September 24, 2021, 03:25:34 AM
We were due to fill the car up soon as it had only half a tank left so took the opportunity while we still could. Half the pumps had run dry and people were trying to manoeuvre to those remaining but we dropped lucky. Another filling station on the way back home had a queue of vehicles down the road. And the shop had an actual joint of beef which we haven't seen in a few weeks so we bought that too.  ;D

Britain On Its Arse (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58673567)
It sounds like, according to the article, that only a very small percentage of the gas stations were closed (and temporarily) and that some people are panic buying?  Wondering though about the shortage of truck drivers?

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: steve ridgway on September 24, 2021, 08:41:37 AM
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on September 24, 2021, 06:19:37 AM
Wondering though about the shortage of truck drivers?

Most young people here would rather become social media influencers or at the least games designers. ::)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on September 24, 2021, 10:11:16 AM
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on September 23, 2021, 07:32:29 AM
Sorry to hear the bad news.  I feel for you!

PD

It won't be the last bad news. Can you imagine this is just about lorry drivers?
Labour shortages might appear in other sectors as well, like health care or the food industry.
And the disruption of previously established supply lines goes to the heart of Brexit, which is about altering trade relations.

And then there is the issue of higher inflation and the slowing down of economic growth, which has already started. (In comparison: the speed of economic recovery in the Netherlands exceeds expectations).

The funny thing about Brexit is that most Brits thought it couldn't be so bad - everything kept running as before. The "remoaners" had just been scare mongerers.

Well yes, no wonder if after more than two years of negotiations, transition and "grace" periods any significant changes that could affect the economy only kicked in as from July 1st this year. The speed and way in which things start to unravel now is actually surprising.

And we haven't seen nothing yet...
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: André on September 24, 2021, 10:32:19 AM
Quote from: steve ridgway on September 24, 2021, 08:41:37 AM
Most young people here would rather become social media influencers or at the least games designers. ::)

Apparently over the years british companies have favoured hiring polish/eastern european drivers on the cheap rather than making the job better paid and more attractive. A lot of those cheap laborers have left as their working conditions became intolerable.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on September 25, 2021, 04:24:23 AM
My Secret Brexit Diary by Michel Barnier review – a British roasting

The EU's chief negotiator found his UK counterparts bizarrely unfocused during the long haul to fix a Brexit deal – and believes they still don't know what they've done (//http:///%3E%3Cbr%20/%3EThe%20EU's%20chief%20negotiator%20found%20his%20UK%20counterparts%20bizarrely%20unfocused%20during%20the%20long%20haul%20to%20fix%20a%20Brexit%20deal%20%E2%80%93%20and%20believes%20they%20still%20don't%20know%20what%20they've%20done)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: John Copeland on September 25, 2021, 04:49:36 AM
Quote from: Que on September 24, 2021, 10:11:16 AM
It won't be the last bad news. Can you imagine this is just about lorry drivers?
Labour shortages might appear in other sectors as well, like health care or the food industry.
And the disruption of previously established supply lines goes to the heart of Brexit, which is about altering trade relations.

And then there is the issue of higher inflation and the slowing down of economic growth, which has already started. (In comparison: the speed of economic recovery in the Netherlands exceeds expectations).

The funny thing about Brexit is that most Brits thought it couldn't be so bad - everything kept running as before. The "remoaners" had just been scare mongerers.

Well yes, no wonder if after more than two years of negotiations, transition and "grace" periods any significant changes that could affect the economy only kicked in as from July 1st this year. The speed and way in which things start to unravel now is actually surprising.

And we haven't seen nothing yet...

+1  What a shambles is coming around, higher inflation, shortages of this that, the next thing, rocketing fuel bills, power companies going down...the list goes on and like you say, "...we haven't seen nothing yet..."
Up here in Scotland  over 62% voted to remain in Europe in 2016.  Every political constituency up here bar none voted to stay in Europe.  In the Independence election two years before that, Scotland were 'promised' by the Conservative Government that we would remain in Europe if we stuck by the Union and didn't go Independent.  This swung a lot of Unionist votes at the last hurdle of that referendum - to stay in the 'Union' of the United Kingdom.  Here we are not eight years later, OUT of Europe, despite having voted unilaterally to  safeguard our place in Europe in 2016 and having voted on the 2014 front page papers promise to the Scots that if we stayed in the Union we would never leave Europe. 
And people wonder why the Scotttish Independence movement is growing more than ever... :(
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on September 25, 2021, 10:24:20 PM
Quote from: Que on September 25, 2021, 04:24:23 AM
My Secret Brexit Diary by Michel Barnier review – a British roasting

The EU's chief negotiator found his UK counterparts bizarrely unfocused during the long haul to fix a Brexit deal – and believes they still don't know what they've done (//http:///%3E%3Cbr%20/%3EThe%20EU's%20chief%20negotiator%20found%20his%20UK%20counterparts%20bizarrely%20unfocused%20during%20the%20long%20haul%20to%20fix%20a%20Brexit%20deal%20%E2%80%93%20and%20believes%20they%20still%20don't%20know%20what%20they've%20done)

It really was amazing just how much UK politicians believed the negotiation was amongst themselves, when in reality they were all on one side of the table (well, actually, most of them were some distance behind the table rather than sitting at it).

The whole thing was constantly framed not as about a deal between the EU and the UK, but about what the UK's House of Commons would agree to. And of course, even that was a total mess, with at one stage Theresa May observing that not only did the House of Commons vote against her proposal, it voted against every alternative proposal as well.

You had 27 organised countries on one side of the negotiation, and a shambles on the other side. It's the kind of policy failure that ought occupy to the textbooks for decades to come.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on September 26, 2021, 12:31:17 AM
Quote from: steve ridgway on September 23, 2021, 06:07:09 AM
We're still seeing plenty of random shortages in the shops and now petrol stations are being hit too. :(

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58645712 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58645712)

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: steve ridgway on September 26, 2021, 09:14:54 PM
LOL well the media have created themselves plenty of headlines now with the petrol stations drained. At least my wife has bought a Christmas pudding. ;D

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58701620 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58701620)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on September 27, 2021, 05:06:18 AM
Quote from: steve ridgway on September 26, 2021, 09:14:54 PM
LOL well the media have created themselves plenty of headlines now with the petrol stations drained. At least my wife has bought a Christmas pudding. ;D

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58701620 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58701620)
So much for the what was it?  Only 1% of the stations had been impacted/out of fuel article?!

This story broke my heart:  https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-58697788

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on September 27, 2021, 01:28:14 PM
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on September 27, 2021, 05:06:18 AM
So much for the what was it?  Only 1% of the stations had been impacted/out of fuel article?!

This story broke my heart:  https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-58697788

PD

Only 1% have fuel more like! Brexit, Covid, the selfishness of public or whatever, the Government should have never allowed this to happen and with a feeble opposition navel gazing in Brighton they get away with it!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on September 28, 2021, 02:44:02 AM
Quote from: Irons on September 27, 2021, 01:28:14 PM
Only 1% have fuel more like! Brexit, Covid, the selfishness of public or whatever, the Government should have never allowed this to happen and with a feeble opposition navel gazing in Brighton they get away with it!
What have you seen/experienced in your area Irons?

And what have others seen?

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on September 28, 2021, 07:23:10 AM
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on September 28, 2021, 02:44:02 AM
What have you seen/experienced in your area Irons?

And what have others seen?

PD

A strange one. Chatting to someone this morning he made the point that, yes, there is a shortage of HGV drivers that (me talking) is down to Brexit. But for delivering fuel there is no shortage. Due to potential dangerous load drivers are highly trained and paid. Also, they are not required to travel long distances unlike many HGV drivers. In other words, a desirable well paid job with good working conditions. So why are motorists are in some cases coming to blows queuing for fuel? I am definitely not going to repeat here the theory put to me and I'm not sure I believe it myself, but much of the blame for this rests with national newspapers. Thanks to their headlines motorists panicked and as one filled up their tanks to full all at the same time. It will be Christmas turkeys next!   
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Spotted Horses on September 28, 2021, 08:40:16 AM
Quote from: Irons on September 28, 2021, 07:23:10 AM
A strange one. Chatting to someone this morning he made the point that, yes, there is a shortage of HGV drivers that (me talking) is down to Brexit. But for delivering fuel there is no shortage. Due to potential dangerous load drivers are highly trained and paid. Also, they are not required to travel long distances unlike many HGV drivers. In other words, a desirable well paid job with good working conditions. So why are motorists are in some cases coming to blows queuing for fuel? I am definitely not going to repeat here the theory put to me and I'm not sure I believe it myself, but much of the blame for this rests with national newspapers. Thanks to their headlines motorists panicked and as one filled up their tanks to full all at the same time. It will be Christmas turkeys next!

That is the explanation. Supply chains do not have a great deal of excess capacity. Everything can be fine, but if everyone decided to top off their tank the same day the fuel suppliers will run out.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on September 28, 2021, 12:23:08 PM
Quote from: Irons on September 28, 2021, 07:23:10 AM
[...] but much of the blame for this rests with national newspapers. Thanks to their headlines motorists panicked and as one filled up their tanks to full all at the same time. It will be Christmas turkeys next!   

Quote from: Spotted Horses on September 28, 2021, 08:40:16 AM
That is the explanation. Supply chains do not have a great deal of excess capacity. Everything can be fine, but if everyone decided to top off their tank the same day the fuel suppliers will run out.

So the issue is not insufficient supply but a peak in demand, because of scare mongering in the newspapers?

Well, I guess the upside of that would be that since panick buying can't last forever the issue with the shortages will soon be resolved.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: André on September 28, 2021, 01:26:45 PM
From today's Washington Post.

Quote
Opinion by Michael Dobbs
Yesterday at 3:24 p.m. EDT


Michael Dobbs is an author and former Washington Post foreign correspondent. His most recent book is "King Richard: Nixon and Watergate — An American Tragedy."


Channeling his inner Winston Churchill, Boris Johnson earned a few headlines recently by addressing his continental "friends" in "Franglais." "Prenez un grip et donnez-moi un break," he said of the French reaction to the new U.S.-Britain-Australia alliance. ("Get a grip and give me a break.") As an expatriate Brit nouvellement arrivé at London's Heathrow Airport from France, I would like to give the British prime minister some equally amicable advice in the foreign language he evidently knows best. "Sortez-out vos horribles problemes de border before lecturer le reste du monde."

As numerous travelers have had occasion to note, the passport lines at Heathrow have become a national disgrace. When I arrived at Terminal Five last Friday, I was confronted with a scene that evoked a peculiarly English version of the Last Judgment. Armies of lost souls in blue masks sat wearily next to their hand luggage waiting for the signal to shuffle forward. The line stretched around two sides of the football-field-sized terminal and all the way back again before even approaching the vast "arrivals" area, where we would prepare to meet our bureaucratic inquisitors.

"E-gates are out of service," a voice informed us over the loudspeaker. "Contingency plans have been activated."
The "contingency plan" turned out to consist of handing out snacks and water to travelers on the verge of fainting. Soon the terminal was littered with the detritus of discarded cans and crumpled crisp bags. The milling throngs of desperate airline passengers were a perfect petri dish for a covid-19 superspreading event.

The British government has strenuously rejected any link between the chaotic scenes at Heathrow — and other, increasingly irksome disruptions to daily life in this "vert et generalement pleasant Terre" — and the fateful decision, in 2016, to leave the European Union. Instead, it has blamed temporary phenomena linked to the pandemic and technical glitches with its passport control system.

"Très désolé, Monsieur Johnson, but cette explication ne wash pas." Over the past two months, I have been traveling around Europe, from Croatia to Ireland to France, with few of the problems I have encountered en Angleterre. European border controls are much less onerous than those of the United Kingdom. In France, I was able to instantly convert my U.S.-issued vaccination card into a French "passe sanitaire" and QR code for access to museums, restaurants and public transport. Britain, by contrast, has insisted on devising an extraordinarily cumbersome health control system, complete with red, orange and green traffic light signals and multiple covid-19 tests for incoming passengers.

The costs of this go-it-alone policy extend far beyond the lines at Heathrow Airport. The latest crisis du jour has taken the form of long lines at gas stations, as visa restrictions on European lorry drivers have caused disruptions to fuel supplies. The government has responded by promising to waive some of the restrictions, but it remains unclear whether this will be sufficient incentive for absent drivers who can drive quite freely across the rest of the continent.
Elsewhere, fruit is rotting in fields due to a shortage of Bulgarian and Romanian pickers who are willing to work for much lower wages. The hospitality industry is in crisis because of the lack of Polish cooks and waiters. Even the iconic National Health Service is having difficulty recruiting sufficient staff.

For all the boasts about "global Britain," the land of my birth seems to be becoming ever more insular. If "taking back control" from supranational European institutions resulted in better outcomes for ordinary Brits, Brexit might be defensible, but so far there have been few concrete benefits and numerous inconveniences. After a successful vaccine rollout early on, Britain is now slipping behind France and Italy in vaccination rates and infection rates.
Most amazing to me, after a two-year absence from these islands, was the resigned way in which my fellow Brits are putting up with all these indignities. It was as if they have been so worn down by the political and economic turmoil of the past few years that they no longer have the will to do much about it.

In Heathrow, it turned out that I was one of the lucky ones, managing to shuffle my way to the head of the immigration line after a mere two hours. British newspapers reported that some were trapped on their planes because of the logjam. Some had to wait up to four hours to get through passport control. "I'm here to tell you that I will never go abroad again," television actress Maureen Lipman wrote in the Daily Mail. "It took years off my life."

Touting the benefits of Brexit, Johnson famously told his fellow countrymen that they would be able to "have (their) cake and eat it." Sadly, Brits are discovering that this is not the case. To put it in language the prime minister might understand: "Votre gouvernement cannot runner un toy train, let alone une patisserie. Je voie only une solution. Retournez en Europe le plus fast possible."

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on September 28, 2021, 01:53:11 PM
Quote from: Que on September 28, 2021, 12:23:08 PM
So the issue is not insufficient supply but a peak in demand, because of scare mongering in the newspapers?

Well, I guess the upside of that would be that since panick buying can't last forever the issue with the shortages will soon be resolved.

It's toilet paper all over again.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on September 28, 2021, 02:40:14 PM
Quote from: Que on September 28, 2021, 12:23:08 PM
So the issue is not insufficient supply but a peak in demand, because of scare mongering in the newspapers?

According to the BBC:

"So what's behind the crisis?

The key issue is there aren't enough drivers to supply petrol.
There's an estimated shortage of more than 100,000 HGV drivers and petrol is only the latest industry to be hit.
The lack of drivers has caused problems for a range of industries - from supermarkets to fast food chains.
Fuel tanker drivers need additional safety qualifications on top of their HGV licence to be able to transport chemicals such as petrol."


I guess we'll soon find out...
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: The new erato on September 28, 2021, 09:09:07 PM
Why do people panic if they buy into "Brexit's gonna be troublefree and great"?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: steve ridgway on September 29, 2021, 07:21:46 AM
I've just walked past a filling station on my way to the Post Office. They'd turned off the illuminated price sign and every pump had an "out of order" label on it. :'(
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: steve ridgway on September 29, 2021, 07:46:43 AM
It seems we're also no longer "Great Britain". :-\

GB number plate sticker no longer valid abroad (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58734265)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on September 29, 2021, 08:12:11 AM
Just saw some encouraging news re GB and petrol:  https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-58729653

Pd
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: The new erato on September 30, 2021, 12:24:31 AM
Quote from: steve ridgway on September 29, 2021, 07:46:43 AM
It seems we're also no longer "Great Britain". :-\

GB number plate sticker no longer valid abroad (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58734265)

And maybe not so united either ?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on September 30, 2021, 02:05:47 AM
 
= The Patel/Johnson discussion has been moved to the Boris Johnson thread =
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mirror Image on September 30, 2021, 07:51:41 PM
I'm not one to comment on other country's political problems as the US has a million problems of its own, but I have to say Brexit is looking like a complete failure from all sides of the political coin. I never understood their reasoning for opting out of the European Union as pretty much every country in the continent is a member. It seems that this gamble hasn't paid off and I'm afraid that the only people who will be hurt in the end will be its citizens. Boris Johnson needs to go and they need to get someone who will get them back on track financially.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on September 30, 2021, 11:51:02 PM
To avoid the "failure" qualification, the narrative on the dividends of Brexit has shifted over time from "unprecedented opportunities", to "much will remain the same", to "these are temporary hickups" to "this is the price worth paying for our sovereignty".

Frankly I (still) don't see any upsides to Brexit, neither political nor economical. And nobody has ever managed to explain to me what these upsides actually are. The regained sovereignty is in name only and came with significant loss of international influence and economic damage. Brexit will negatively affect the UK's ability to sail through the global economic crisis we are heading for.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on October 01, 2021, 02:39:39 AM
I see two reasons for Brexit:

A: Possibility for more relaxed regulations compared to EU which can, at least in theory, benefit at least some capitalists (rich people)
B: Political populism based on ignorance, xenophobia and patriotism, the (false) feel that UK doesn't need other countries, at least not much.

I used to think A is dominant and B is secondary, but now I think I was wrong and reason B is actually the main reason.

Many politicians will exploit the ignorance of the voters. Political literacy is important in democracy. Otherwise ignorance wins.  :-X
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Herman on October 01, 2021, 04:11:19 AM
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/opinion/britain-fuel-crisis-johnson.html

About the prospect of a bleak winter, with many shortages, most of all labour.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on October 01, 2021, 05:00:22 AM
Has anyone seen or heard about deliveries of petrol by the military?  Or are things getting better on their own?  Or still the same?

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Iota on October 01, 2021, 11:12:00 AM
Quote from: 71 dB on October 01, 2021, 02:39:39 AM
I see two reasons for Brexit:

A: Possibility for more relaxed regulations compared to EU which can, at least in theory, benefit at least some capitalists (rich people)
B: Political populism based on ignorance, xenophobia and patriotism, the (false) feel that UK doesn't need other countries, at least not much.

I used to think A is dominant and B is secondary, but now I think I was wrong and reason B is actually the main reason.

Many politicians will exploit the ignorance of the voters. Political literacy is important in democracy. Otherwise ignorance wins.  :-X

I broadly agree with this, and indeed Que's #1729.

My own take on this is that human beings obviously generally tend to do things that make them feel better, or things they imagine will. Which often means doing something of practical benefit to them, improving their living standards etc. But sometimes it's an emotional decision such as righting a perceived wrong, which may even mean a deterioration in practical circumstances, but which they still feel they have to do, however illogical, to be able to feel okay again. I'm sure we all do this sometimes.

And Brexit was one such thing, an itch that had to be scratched, a regaining of a mythological (imo) autonomy which some people seemed to crave. But whether it's mythological or not is irrelevant, it's whether people believe the myth or not that matters, belief is a far more powerful driver of human behaviour than logic. And as any demagogue well knows, it doesn't come much more emotive than love of country, battling the perceived enemy etc. And ultimately more voters believed that they would be happier out than in, irrespective of practical consequences. And they still do. For them Brexit has been a success. Myth or not, they got what wanted, the belief that we once again can be the master of our own ship.

For me a Remainer I absolutely didn't get what I wanted, but I now broadly accept the situation, there is no point in not. All the lies from media and politicians during the campaign were only stoking a deeper feeling people already had I think, and it's wrong to say that the only people who 'really' wanted out, are the powerful and mendacious figureheads, who were leading a helpless flock of unknowing sheep to their fate. Many people felt like that quite independently of campaign propaganda.

The whole process though tiring/depressing/exasperating for many, is done now. Even just typing this feels like yet again pointlessly going over an endlessly ploughed field. The constructive thing to do now is make the best of a bad job, and hope something good comes of it. History shows that stupid actions sometimes lead to good outcomes. Let's hope we get lucky.


Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mirror Image on October 01, 2021, 07:51:08 PM
Quote from: Iota on October 01, 2021, 11:12:00 AM
I broadly agree with this, and indeed Que's #1729.

My own take on this is that human beings obviously generally tend to do things that make them feel better, or things they imagine will. Which often means doing something of practical benefit to them, improving their living standards etc. But sometimes it's an emotional decision such as righting a perceived wrong, which may even mean a deterioration in practical circumstances, but which they still feel they have to do, however illogical, to be able to feel okay again. I'm sure we all do this sometimes.

And Brexit was one such thing, an itch that had to be scratched, a regaining of a mythological (imo) autonomy which some people seemed to crave. But whether it's mythological or not is irrelevant, it's whether people believe the myth or not that matters, belief is a far more powerful driver of human behaviour than logic. And as any demagogue well knows, it doesn't come much more emotive than love of country, battling the perceived enemy etc. And ultimately more voters believed that they would be happier out than in, irrespective of practical consequences. And they still do. For them Brexit has been a success. Myth or not, they got what wanted, the belief that we once again can be the master of our own ship.

For me a Remainer I absolutely didn't get what I wanted, but I now broadly accept the situation, there is no point in not. All the lies from media and politicians during the campaign were only stoking a deeper feeling people already had I think, and it's wrong to say that the only people who 'really' wanted out, are the powerful and mendacious figureheads, who were leading a helpless flock of unknowing sheep to their fate. Many people felt like that quite independently of campaign propaganda.

The whole process though tiring/depressing/exasperating for many, is done now. Even just typing this feels like yet again pointlessly going over an endlessly ploughed field. The constructive thing to do now is make the best of a bad job, and hope something good comes of it. History shows that stupid actions sometimes lead to good outcomes. Let's hope we get lucky.

Yes, I'm hoping there is light on the other side for all people in the UK. Hopefully, things will iron itself out and your country will get back on the right track. It'll take some time I'm sure, but if history is any indicator --- you Brits are a resilient people!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on October 02, 2021, 12:10:53 AM
Quote from: Mirror Image on October 01, 2021, 07:51:08 PM
Yes, I'm hoping there is light on the other side for all people in the UK. Hopefully, things will iron itself out and your country will get back on the right track. It'll take some time I'm sure, but if history is any indicator --- you Brits are a resilient people!

Let's hope so, indeed.

The emotional/dogmatic nature of Brexit that Iota described, will however now form a big obstacle for any change of course. People tend to rationalise their (emotional) decisions after the fact and look for alternative explanations when things turn out badly, or just ignore negative consequences altogether.

History, in this case, might prove not to be so helpful.... Since it feeds a sense of exceptionalism and encourages an attitude of entrenchment.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on October 02, 2021, 03:33:13 AM
I have always been into UK music. My favorite composer is Elgar and even before getting into classical music I was heavily into British electronic (dance) music, British acts such as S'Express, The Beatmasters, The Prodigy, Jonny L, Autechre and dozens of others not to mention the various "British" subgenres. My music diet has always been very British.  8)

This is why it has been hard for me to see all of this Brexit-madness happening. Now I can't even order online from UK without the fear of customs hassle and extra cost and instead I have to order from Germany which limits my options. Why wasn't it Poland leaving, Polexit? Why did this happen with the UK? It is really annoying, because the Brexit vote was close and people were lied about Brexit. The World is such a stupid and frustrating place!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on October 02, 2021, 03:40:18 AM
The shortages in the UK are about to get worse now that the European lorry drivers need passports to enter the UK. Up to 80 % of lorry drivers don't have passports because they haven't needed them. ID-cards have been enough.

What a mess!  :P
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: steve ridgway on October 02, 2021, 05:00:01 AM
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on October 01, 2021, 05:00:22 AM
Has anyone seen or heard about deliveries of petrol by the military?  Or are things getting better on their own?  Or still the same?

Worse in the London area but better elsewhere. The military will be starting work Monday.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/58772169 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/58772169)

Desperate drivers follow the wrong tanker (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-58767230) :'(
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on October 02, 2021, 05:07:13 AM
Quote from: 71 dB on October 02, 2021, 03:40:18 AM
The shortages in the UK are about to get worse now that the European lorry drivers need passports to enter the UK. Up to 80 % of lorry drivers don't have passports because they haven't needed them. ID-cards have been enough.

What a mess!  :P
Some positive (though temporary) updates that should help:

"Fuel supply: Military to deliver petrol to UK garages from Monday"

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-58766648 (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-58766648)

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on October 02, 2021, 05:30:52 AM
Why Boris Johnson can't blame the media for the UK's fuel crisis (https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2021/10/why-boris-johnson-cant-blame-the-media-for-the-uks-fuel-crisis) (New Satesman)

I'm sure that panic buying made things worse, but it seems that there was (is) a real problem to begin with:

QuoteOn Thursday 23 September, Hills produced the first of two reports from a Cabinet Office supply chain meeting on 16 September. First, he revealed that Tesco had informed the government that it had a shortage of 800 lorry drivers. The following day he covered the petrol angle, reporting that BP's head of UK retail, Hanna Hofer, warned the government that BP had "two thirds of normal forecourt stock levels required for smooth operations" and the level was "declining rapidly". She said BP was preparing to restrict deliveries "very soon" and that the situation was "bad, very bad".

So, if there is a real, structural problem in the fuel supply chain: how is this going to be fixed?
Is the British army going to run petrol trucks for an indefinite period of time?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mandryka on October 02, 2021, 05:56:22 AM
Quote from: Que on October 02, 2021, 05:30:52 AM
Why Boris Johnson can't blame the media for the UK's fuel crisis (https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2021/10/why-boris-johnson-cant-blame-the-media-for-the-uks-fuel-crisis) (New Satesman)

I'm sure that panic buying made things worse, but it seems that there was (is) a real problem to begin with:

So, if there is a real, structural problem in the fuel supply chain: how is this going to be fixed?
Is the British army going to run petrol trucks for an indefinite period of time?

Thanks for this article que.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mandryka on October 02, 2021, 11:24:58 AM
Quote from: Que on October 02, 2021, 05:30:52 AM
Why Boris Johnson can't blame the media for the UK's fuel crisis (https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2021/10/why-boris-johnson-cant-blame-the-media-for-the-uks-fuel-crisis) (New Satesman)

I'm sure that panic buying made things worse, but it seems that there was (is) a real problem to begin with:

So, if there is a real, structural problem in the fuel supply chain: how is this going to be fixed?
Is the British army going to run petrol trucks for an indefinite period of time?

Here's the short term solution -- the let has been sent to all people with a licence to drive heavy trucks

(https://i.ibb.co/v1L0mLb/Capture.jpg/)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Iota on October 02, 2021, 11:37:48 AM
Quote from: Mirror Image on October 01, 2021, 07:51:08 PM
Yes, I'm hoping there is light on the other side for all people in the UK. Hopefully, things will iron itself out and your country will get back on the right track. It'll take some time I'm sure, but if history is any indicator --- you Brits are a resilient people!

Much appreciate the spirit of your comment.  :)

Quote from: Que on October 02, 2021, 12:10:53 AM
Let's hope so, indeed.

The emotional/dogmatic nature of Brexit that Iota described, will however now form a big obstacle for any change of course. People tend to rationalise their (emotional) decisions after the fact and look for alternative explanations when things turn out badly, or just ignore negative consequences altogether.

History, in this case, might prove not to be so helpful.... Since it feeds a sense of exceptionalism and encourages an attitude of entrenchment.

All very true. I don't know if we're really different from many other countries in this regard, but being on home turf the effect is inevitably rather more visceral. There's no question though imo, that a post-imperialist mindset here certainly messes with things, and has had an egregious effect on any hopes of reasonable discussion during the Brexit saga.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on October 02, 2021, 12:59:38 PM
Quote from: Que on October 02, 2021, 05:30:52 AM
Why Boris Johnson can't blame the media for the UK's fuel crisis (https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2021/10/why-boris-johnson-cant-blame-the-media-for-the-uks-fuel-crisis) (New Satesman)

I'm sure that panic buying made things worse, but it seems that there was (is) a real problem to begin with:

So, if there is a real, structural problem in the fuel supply chain: how is this going to be fixed?
Is the British army going to run petrol trucks for an indefinite period of time?
Wow!  Very interesting to read as I had thought that things were much better and that it wasn't a case of lack of petrol but "only" issues with panic buying.  I do realize that there has been a lack of drivers which the UK was trying hard to cut through visa requirements, etc. to get European drivers back.  It sounds now like there's a bigger issue regarding qualified petrol drivers than I had realized that those two issues alone were causing big problems, but if there is also a lack of supply....not certain exactly what "forecourt supplies" means.  Can anyone here explain what that means please?

It won't be easy, but I still believe that the UK will figure it out and sooner rather than later.   All the best wishes to you in the meantime.

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: MusicTurner on October 02, 2021, 09:28:28 PM
According to the media here in DK, the UK governmental worst-case scenarios investigated in the "Operation Warhammer" report from 2019, originally secret, several of them have become reality - in the areas of fuel supply and prices, food and supermarket shortage, drinking water pollution because of cleansing means shortage, conflicts about fishing rights, problems in the service sector for the elderly, increased bureaucracy as regards EU trade.

The article below - in Danish - isn't mentioning any benefits from Brexit so far, though.
https://nyheder.tv2.dk/udland/2021-10-03-den-britiske-regering-lavede-et-worst-case-scenario-i-2019-paa-flere-punkter-er
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on October 03, 2021, 12:03:16 AM
Quote from: MusicTurner on October 02, 2021, 09:28:28 PM
According to the media here in DK, the UK governmental worse-case scenarios investigated in the "Operation Warhammer" report from 2019, originally secret, several of them have become reality - in the areas of fuel supply and prices, food and supermarket shortage, drinking water pollution because of cleansing means shortage, conflicts about fishing rights, problems in the service sector for the elderly, increased bureaucracy as regards EU trade.

The article below - in Danish - isn't mentioning any benefits from Brexit so far, though.
https://nyheder.tv2.dk/udland/2021-10-03-den-britiske-regering-lavede-et-worst-case-scenario-i-2019-paa-flere-punkter-er

Those were the predictions for a "hard", no deal Brexit.
But the deal on which the UK left the EU was waverthin and was less than would have been necessary to sufficiently protect and secure the economy. The current circumstances (pandemic, energy crisis, global supply chain crisis) create unfortunately "the perfect storm" in which post-Brexit arrangements will be put to the test... and it doesn't look good...

(https://free-cdn.tv2i.dk/users/editorial/images/7d444b77-8582-4b9e-a0f4-a7dd3d67b235.jpg?t%5B%5D=crop%3Ax%3D0%2Cy%3D0%2Cwidth%3D1088%2Cheight%3D612&t%5B%5D=maxSize%3Aheight%3D351%2Cwidth%3D624&t%5B%5D=compress%3Alevel%3D82&publicKey=cms-ro&accessToken=1fa67477fc2aaf29a8fa634523d39a4ccf057c1603cee4c8c5047ef272ba9f0a)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on October 03, 2021, 12:19:44 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on October 02, 2021, 11:24:58 AM
Here's the short term solution -- the let has been sent to all people with a licence to drive heavy trucks

A baroness who is in charge of "roads, busses and places".

We couldn't have made it up if we wanted to!  :laugh:

I also notice the "fantastic opportunities" that are promised and the assurance that "conditions of employment and pay have been improving across the sector". The impression I get from other non-Uk news sources is that the Bulgarian and Romanian drivers that have been kicked out after having been exploited for years (which is not an exclusive UK phenomenon BTW) have no intention of returning:  too much economic insecurity,  a host country that cannot be trusted and, last but not least, a low GBP.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mandryka on October 03, 2021, 12:28:36 AM
Quote from: Que on October 03, 2021, 12:19:44 AM
A baroness who is in charge of "roads, busses and places".

We couldn't have made it up if we wanted to!  :laugh:

I also notice the "fantastic opportunities" that are promised and the assurance that "conditions of employment and pay have been improving across the sector". The impression I get from other non-Uk news sources is that the Bulgarian and Romanian drivers that have been kicked out after having been exploited for years (which is not an exclusive UK phenomenon BTW) have no intention of returning:  too much economic insecurity,  a host country that cannot be trusted and, last but not least, a low GBP.

I don't think things are very good in Romania. But more interestingly here's a government minister, Kwertang, talking about how structural change is necessary in the Uk as a result of Brexit. He thinks that the cause of the current crises is employers who refuse to raise wages and employ Brits.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2021/oct/01/business-confidence-falls-petrol-crisis-energy-fuel-pigs-butchers-stock-markets-business-live?page=with:block-6156f5e58f089420bc419cb6#block-6156f5e58f089420bc419cb6

Who would have thought that a conservative would be talking about the necessity for employers to pay employees more? What we're seeing is the Conservatives positioning themselves as the political party of the working British person. Levelling up is all part of this.

There are a lot of losers of global monetarism, hence Brexit. Boris's conservatives seem to have understood that better than any other political group.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on October 03, 2021, 12:47:03 AM
Nothing wrong with raising wages, but that should be done in times of economic growth.
But Bulgarian and Romanian drivers will indeed return if they are sufficiently compensated and offered water tight garantuees. But who is going to pay for that, and how do you sell this political U-turn on immigration? ::)

Rising wages caused by widespread labour shortages will now only add to higher inflation, which will further slow down an economy that is already in dire straits:

UK business confidence collapses as fears of 'stagflation' grow (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/oct/01/uk-business-confidence-collapses-as-fears-of-stagflation-grow)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on October 04, 2021, 07:15:39 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on October 03, 2021, 12:28:36 AM
I don't think things are very good in Romania. But more interestingly here's a government minister, Kwertang, talking about how structural change is necessary in the Uk as a result of Brexit. He thinks that the cause of the current crises is employers who refuse to raise wages and employ Brits.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2021/oct/01/business-confidence-falls-petrol-crisis-energy-fuel-pigs-butchers-stock-markets-business-live?page=with:block-6156f5e58f089420bc419cb6#block-6156f5e58f089420bc419cb6

Who would have thought that a conservative would be talking about the necessity for employers to pay employees more? What we're seeing is the Conservatives positioning themselves as the political party of the working British person. Levelling up is all part of this.

There are a lot of losers of global monetarism, hence Brexit. Boris's conservatives seem to have understood that better than any other political group.

Sound comments, well made. My worry is that the increase in wages(good) will lead to inflation(bad). Although I often stick up for Boris here - someone has to do it! I can't get my head around that he has a long term plan that will cause lots of problems in the short term (leading up to an election) for the long term good.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on October 04, 2021, 07:36:02 AM
Quote from: Que on October 03, 2021, 12:47:03 AM
Nothing wrong with raising wages, but that should be done in times of economic growth.
But Bulgarian and Romanian drivers will indeed return if they are sufficiently compensated and offered water tight garantuees. But who is going to pay for that, and how do you sell this political U-turn on immigration? ::)

Rising wages caused by widespread labour shortages will now only add to higher inflation, which will further slow down an economy that is already in dire straits:

UK business confidence collapses as fears of 'stagflation' grow (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/oct/01/uk-business-confidence-collapses-as-fears-of-stagflation-grow)

Rome wasn't built in a day! The UK has relied on cheap foreign labour for generations, which has resulted in unemployment for the British working class. It is strange that not Labour but the Tories and their Brexit that have grasped this nettle which I believe will ultimately remove them from office.     
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mandryka on October 04, 2021, 07:44:57 AM
Quote from: Irons on October 04, 2021, 07:36:02 AM
Rome wasn't built in a day! The UK has relied on cheap foreign labour for generations, which has resulted in unemployment for the British working class. It is strange that not Labour but the Tories and their Brexit that have grasped this nettle which I believe will ultimately remove them from office.   

By the way, the tories are not against low wages at all. All they are saying is that it is now necessary for some sectors to invest to satisfy demand - investment in human and/or other resources.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on October 04, 2021, 10:03:13 AM
Quote from: Que on October 03, 2021, 12:47:03 AM
[...]
But Bulgarian and Romanian drivers will indeed return if they are sufficiently compensated and offered water tight garantuees. But who is going to pay for that, and how do you sell this political U-turn on immigration? ::)

Newsflash: Boris doesn't want the Bulgarian and Romanian drivers back.... or the butchers...

The UK is in a "post-Brexit transition"....  Indeed it is... if that is what you want to call an deliberate economic shell shock.

Boris Johnson: petrol crisis and pig cull part of necessary post-Brexit transition (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/oct/03/boris-johnson-petrol-crisis-and-pig-cull-part-of-necessary-post-brexit-transition)


Quote from: Irons on October 04, 2021, 07:36:02 AM
Rome wasn't built in a day! The UK has relied on cheap foreign labour for generations, which has resulted in unemployment for the British working class.

It's not that simple. Would the British working class do those jobs for those wages? Would many of those jobs still exist if higher wages had to be paid? Does the British labour force contain sufficiently numbers of qualified staff in all economic sectors? Has the UK economy been modernised to be able to function without cheap labour?

Cheap imported labour solved several problems, and the causes of those problems are not fixed by kicking cheap labour out. QED.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: vandermolen on October 04, 2021, 01:19:16 PM
We are told that the problem of petrol shortages here in the South East is 'stabilising'. This is completely untrue as far as I can tell with many garages still being completely out of petrol causing great anxiety to those who need to drive to work. I agree with Melvyn Bragg (whom normally I don't have much time for) when he writes in the Times today that 'we [in the UK] are... in a terrible mess, one basically caused by David Cameron and Boris Johnson.' The suggestion, by various government ministers wheeled out for the TV cameras that the current crisis 'has nothing to do with Brexit' is frankly insulting to the intelligence of the population.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on October 04, 2021, 05:44:44 PM
Quote from: vandermolen on October 04, 2021, 01:19:16 PM
We are told that the problem of petrol shortages here in the South East is 'stabilising'. This is completely untrue as far as I can tell with many garages still being completely out of petrol causing great anxiety to those who need to drive to work. I agree with Melvyn Bragg (whom normally I don't have much time for) when he writes in the Times today that 'we [in the UK] are... in a terrible mess, one basically caused by David Cameron and Boris Johnson.' The suggestion, by various government ministers wheeled out for the TV cameras that the current crisis 'has nothing to do with Brexit' is frankly insulting to the intelligence of the population.
Hi Jeffrey,

I had read things earlier today that the British army was now helping to deliver supplies in the south of England (supposedly things were much better in other areas like northern England, Scotland and Wales).  Does it seem to be getting any better now?  And, from what I had heard, they were supposed to be starting to help as of Monday...

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: The new erato on October 04, 2021, 08:29:10 PM
I read the news today, oh boy! The british army had just won the war.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: vandermolen on October 04, 2021, 10:22:24 PM
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on October 04, 2021, 05:44:44 PM
Hi Jeffrey,

I had read things earlier today that the British army was now helping to deliver supplies in the south of England (supposedly things were much better in other areas like northern England, Scotland and Wales).  Does it seem to be getting any better now?  And, from what I had heard, they were supposed to be starting to help as of Monday...

PD
Hi PD,
Yes, the army are now driving the petrol tankers. I'll let you know later after I've driven by the local garages (petrol stations).
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: vandermolen on October 04, 2021, 10:23:01 PM
Quote from: The new erato on October 04, 2021, 08:29:10 PM
I read the news today, oh boy! The british army had just won the war.
Haha - very nice Odd  :)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mandryka on October 05, 2021, 12:36:12 AM
Quote from: Irons on October 04, 2021, 07:15:39 AMI can't get my head around that he has a long term plan that will cause lots of problems in the short term (leading up to an election) for the long term good.

Yes I agree with this but he's no fool. He may be bad, he may be a corrupt, but he's not a fool. My guess is that he wants to show industries which are reluctant to change that he means business, that's what's going on right now. There will be temporary visas etc. once they've got the message.


There's another side of things. Covid has shown that you can make the people suffer and stay popular . I don't think a penury of turkeys and trees this Christmas will do him harm, he'll blame the truck drivers and he'll get away with it in the press, and the British like pain - as long as house prices are high Tory voters feel secure.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mandryka on October 05, 2021, 01:14:25 AM
Boris Johnson blames 'lazy' Brits for losing out on jobs to hard-working immigrants

https://metro.co.uk/2013/04/08/boris-johnson-blames-lazy-brits-for-losing-out-on-jobs-to-hard-working-immigrants-3587183/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: vandermolen on October 05, 2021, 01:38:24 AM
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on October 04, 2021, 05:44:44 PM
Hi Jeffrey,

I had read things earlier today that the British army was now helping to deliver supplies in the south of England (supposedly things were much better in other areas like northern England, Scotland and Wales).  Does it seem to be getting any better now?  And, from what I had heard, they were supposed to be starting to help as of Monday...

PD
Hi PD,
I especially took a photo this morning as I stopped opposite my local garage (fuel station).
The sign (surprise surprise) says 'Sorry, we're out of fuel...thanks for your understanding')
(//)
The Times today reports that 'Just 27 fuel tanker drivers from the EU have applied to work in the Britain under the government's emergency scheme...' Who blames them! Boris Johnson was interviewed on the BBC Radio News this morning (he'd refused to be interviewed by them for the past two years). As usual he just winged it and tried to talk so much that they couldn't ask questions(eventually he was asked to 'stop talking') He had to admit, however, that of the 500 new tanker drivers that are needed they have 127.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on October 05, 2021, 03:28:45 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on October 05, 2021, 01:38:24 AM
Hi PD,
I especially took a photo this morning as I stopped opposite my local garage (fuel station).
The sign (surprise surprise) says 'Sorry, we're out of fuel...thanks for your understanding')
(//)
The Times today reports that 'Just 27 fuel tanker drivers from the EU have applied to work in the Britain under the government's emergency scheme...' Who blames them! Boris Johnson was interviewed on the BBC Radio News this morning (he'd refused to be interviewed by them for the past two years). As usual he just winged it and tried to talk so much that they couldn't ask questions(eventually he was asked to 'stop talking') He had to admit, however, that of the 500 new tanker drivers that are needed they have 127.
Wow!   :(

I also didn't know that he'd been refusing to be interviewed by the BBC news reporters for the past two years?  Or is there just certain people or a certain program that he's been avoiding and if so, why?

How's your fuel gage looking Jeffrey?

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: vandermolen on October 05, 2021, 03:38:12 AM
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on October 05, 2021, 03:28:45 AM
Wow!   :(

I also didn't know that he'd been refusing to be interviewed by the BBC news reporters for the past two years?  Or is there just certain people or a certain program that he's been avoiding and if so, why?

How's your fuel gage looking Jeffrey?

PD
If he thinks that they are too critical of the government he has refused interviews along with other government ministers, (Channel 4 News and Good Morning Britain were treated in the same way). As for fuel, the garage I photographed, had a delivery last week and I was lucky as I happened to be driving there just after the delivery. I have 3/4 of a tank left and my drive to work (2 X per week) is only about 8 minutes. Compared to many I am lucky.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on October 05, 2021, 03:47:14 AM
Quote from: vandermolen on October 05, 2021, 03:38:12 AM
If he thinks that they are too critical of the government he has refused interviews along with other government ministers, (Channel 4 News and Good Morning Britain were treated in the same way). As for fuel, the garage I photographed, had a delivery last week and I was lucky as I happened to be driving there just after the delivery. I have 3/4 of a tank left and my drive to work (2 X per week) is only about 8 minutes. Compared to many I am lucky.
Thank you for the further news.

Glad that you are currently o.k. and my fingers are crossed for the rest of the U.K.

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on October 05, 2021, 08:24:29 AM
So, what do you do if you are in a very deep hole?

You dig a bit deeper....  ::)

Brexit: UK gives EU ultimatum over Northern Ireland protocol (https://www.dw.com/en/brexit-uk-gives-eu-ultimatum-over-northern-ireland-protocol/a-59404533)


I think the UK overestimates its leverage in its relation with the EU: if push comes to shove, the EU will end the deal and there will be no deal at all. Finished, done... Brexit in its "purest" form.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: John Copeland on October 05, 2021, 08:44:24 AM
Quote from: Que on October 05, 2021, 08:24:29 AM
So, what do you do if you are in a very deep hole?

You dig a bit deeper....  ::)
Brexit: UK gives EU ultimatum over Northern Ireland protocol (https://www.dw.com/en/brexit-uk-gives-eu-ultimatum-over-northern-ireland-protocol/a-59404533)
I think the UK overestimates its leverage in its relation with the EU: if push comes to shove, the EU will end the deal and there will be no deal at all. Finished, done... Brexit in its "purest" form.

+1
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on October 05, 2021, 11:16:21 AM

Reuters:  Analysis: Brexit cold turkey - UK tries to kick 25-year imported labour habit (https://www.reuters.com/world/the-great-reboot/brexit-cold-turkey-uk-tries-kick-25-year-imported-labour-habit-2021-10-05/)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on October 05, 2021, 01:41:03 PM
Quote from: 71 dB on October 02, 2021, 03:33:13 AM
I have always been into UK music. My favorite composer is Elgar and even before getting into classical music I was heavily into British electronic (dance) music, British acts such as S'Express, The Beatmasters, The Prodigy, Jonny L, Autechre and dozens of others not to mention the various "British" subgenres. My music diet has always been very British.  8)

This is why it has been hard for me to see all of this Brexit-madness happening. Now I can't even order online from UK without the fear of customs hassle and extra cost and instead I have to order from Germany which limits my options. Why wasn't it Poland leaving, Polexit? Why did this happen with the UK? It is really annoying, because the Brexit vote was close and people were lied about Brexit. The World is such a stupid and frustrating place!

Honestly, all the Europeans talking about customs duties all the time mystify me. It seems weird that your customs taxes would be SO much higher than the internal taxes that are no longer payable. Not least because world trade agreements tend to discourage being so protectionist.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on October 05, 2021, 01:50:40 PM
Quote from: Mandryka on October 05, 2021, 01:14:25 AM
Boris Johnson blames 'lazy' Brits for losing out on jobs to hard-working immigrants

https://metro.co.uk/2013/04/08/boris-johnson-blames-lazy-brits-for-losing-out-on-jobs-to-hard-working-immigrants-3587183/

(see also the article Que linked to about the imported labour habit)

Well that's back in 2013... But it's not "lazy", it's a cultural expectation about who does what jobs. The UK is hardly unique in this. There are a number of places where imported labour is offered the lower-quality jobs that people would generally prefer not to do themselves. The US of A is the same - last night I rewatched an episode of American Dad that has a joke based on the assumption that a cleaning lady always speaks Spanish.  The oil states in the Middle East have huge amounts of imported labour.

And while Australia's "imported" labour mostly consists of people who have genuinely moved here on a permanent basis, there's still undoubtedly a sense that immigrant communities are more likely to occupy certain kinds of jobs and Covid-19 is showing that up. Plus we rely on young backpackers (often European) to take on fruit-picking jobs and right now they're not here to take them.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Herman on October 06, 2021, 12:18:43 AM
Quote from: Que on October 03, 2021, 12:19:44 AM
A baroness who is in charge of "roads, busses and places".

We couldn't have made it up if we wanted to!  :laugh:

I also notice the "fantastic opportunities" that are promised and the assurance that "conditions of employment and pay have been improving across the sector". The impression I get from other non-Uk news sources is that the Bulgarian and Romanian drivers that have been kicked out after having been exploited for years (which is not an exclusive UK phenomenon BTW) have no intention of returning:  too much economic insecurity,  a host country that cannot be trusted and, last but not least, a low GBP.

I assumed the letter was a spoof.
There is no point whatsoever in signing with a title like "baroness". You're not in a civil service job as a baroness. So that's what made me think it was prank letter, too.
But I guess that's what happens when a vaudevillean like Boris J. is your PM.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on October 06, 2021, 02:58:59 AM
Quote from: Madiel on October 05, 2021, 01:41:03 PM
Honestly, all the Europeans talking about customs duties all the time mystify me. It seems weird that your customs taxes would be SO much higher than the internal taxes that are no longer payable. Not least because world trade agreements tend to discourage being so protectionist.

This is not so much about the taxes themselves, but the clumsy way everything works. The hassle. The delays in delivery. In some cases the customer first pays taxes when buying the product and the has to pay again in the customs. Then ask refund from the seller. Finnish Post Office (which is one of the worst things in Finland because it tries to make profit when it should be non-profit infrastructure keeping the society functional) even charges 2,95 € for having to deal with customs and still isn't able to deliver goods quickly! It's all so clumsy and stupid! Before Brexit these problems did not exit when ordering from UK, and Finns did order a lot from there. The last two years has been about not knowing how ordering from UK will change, being worried about it and so on. It has been a pain in the ass! All of this because some asshole politicians in the UK wanted to exploit the xenophobia and ignorance of many brits.  :P
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Herman on October 06, 2021, 03:46:49 AM
Quote from: 71 dB on October 06, 2021, 02:58:59 AM
Before Brexit these problems did not exit when ordering from UK, and Finns did order a lot from there. The last two years has been about not knowing how ordering from UK will change, being worried about it and so on. It has been a pain in the ass! All of this because some asshole politicians in the UK wanted to exploit the xenophobia and ignorance of many brits.  :P

The solution to this first world problem is stop ordering consumer goods like crazy. it's clearly not making you happy anyway.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on October 06, 2021, 02:35:48 PM
Quote from: Herman on October 06, 2021, 03:46:49 AM
The solution to this first world problem is stop ordering consumer goods like crazy. it's clearly not making you happy anyway.

It doesn't make me happy, but it gives the illusion of happiness which is better than nothing.  :P

I'm not stopping ordering. I'm just ordering inside the EU, which limits options which in turn means I order less which means the illusion of happiness is weaker which is why I am whining here.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on October 06, 2021, 05:49:00 PM
Quote from: 71 dB on October 06, 2021, 02:58:59 AM
This is not so much about the taxes themselves, but the clumsy way everything works. The hassle. The delays in delivery. In some cases the customer first pays taxes when buying the product and the has to pay again in the customs. Then ask refund from the seller. Finnish Post Office (which is one of the worst things in Finland because it tries to make profit when it should be non-profit infrastructure keeping the society functional) even charges 2,95 € for having to deal with customs and still isn't able to deliver goods quickly! It's all so clumsy and stupid! Before Brexit these problems did not exit when ordering from UK, and Finns did order a lot from there. The last two years has been about not knowing how ordering from UK will change, being worried about it and so on. It has been a pain in the ass! All of this because some asshole politicians in the UK wanted to exploit the xenophobia and ignorance of many brits.  :P

Meh. I'm used to it potentially taking up to 2 months for something I've ordered to get to this side of the world. So long as it arrives, everything's good. And the day it arrives can be an exciting moment.

And when it comes to taxes, Presto has always been superb. They can tell me what I'll pay, in Australian dollars, from the very beginning.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mandryka on October 07, 2021, 07:55:15 AM
The fuel crisis seems to be over. I believe the whole thing was caused by manic buying deliberately whipped up in the media for either political or commercial reasons. Whoever's doing this sort of thing IMO ends up doing the Tories more good than harm.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on October 07, 2021, 09:17:53 AM
Quote from: Madiel on October 06, 2021, 05:49:00 PM
Meh. I'm used to it potentially taking up to 2 months for something I've ordered to get to this side of the world. So long as it arrives, everything's good. And the day it arrives can be an exciting moment.

And when it comes to taxes, Presto has always been superb. They can tell me what I'll pay, in Australian dollars, from the very beginning.
Good to hear that Presto is still offering great service.  :)

On the bad side, I heard/read that there could be a slowing down of US Mail delivery (starting this past Friday if I'm recalling correctly).   :(

Quote from: Mandryka on October 07, 2021, 07:55:15 AM
The fuel crisis seems to be over....
Yeah!  ;D

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on October 09, 2021, 12:38:06 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on October 07, 2021, 07:55:15 AM
The fuel crisis seems to be over. I believe the whole thing was caused by manic buying deliberately whipped up in the media for either political or commercial reasons. Whoever's doing this sort of thing IMO ends up doing the Tories more good than harm.

It does feel we are on the cusp of a perfect storm of which the fuel "crises" is only the opening salvo. Energy prices, a French blockade and no turkeys for Christmas. When will it end!?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on October 09, 2021, 01:54:28 AM
Quote from: Irons on October 09, 2021, 12:38:06 AM
When will it end!?

When people learn to cast their votes better in elections. People vote for populistic extroverted clowns with spychopathic tendencies and simply "solutions" to everything too much. People should try to vote more for introverts even if they look boring and gray. Those people often have real complex solutions and have less spychopathic tendencies.

So when will people learn to cast their votes better? I am afraid never. Even a Christmas without a turkey won't teach them. So never.  :-\
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on October 09, 2021, 05:42:43 AM
I have been a little bit angry to Brits for being pro-Brexit, but lately the Brexit problems in the UK have become so bad that I have actually started feeling PITY for Brits. Their country is becoming fast a shithole country run by clowns. Until recently I had not followed UK politics very closely, but the more I follow, the worse it looks. Poor Brits! They are like Americans were under Trump's government of xenophobic and hate-based incompetence. Are we witnessing the downfall of the UK and its disintegration into pieces?  :-X
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mandryka on October 09, 2021, 07:12:01 AM
Quote from: 71 dB on October 09, 2021, 05:42:43 AM
I have been a little bit angry to Brits for being pro-Brexit, but lately the Brexit problems in the UK have become so bad that I have actually started feeling PITY for Brits. Their country is becoming fast a shithole country run by clowns. Until recently I had not followed UK politics very closely, but the more I follow, the worse it looks. Poor Brits! They are like Americans were under Trump's government of xenophobic and hate-based incompetence. Are we witnessing the downfall of the UK and its disintegration into pieces?  :-X

You're exaggerating the problems, don't believe everything you read. Petrol stations were low  for a short while, but the causes were complex, and Brexit may not have been the main one. Anyway, not one of my suppliers had a problem supplying - I have a property business and I always need tradesmen to call at my houses, but there were zero cancellations due to fuel shortages. This is in London, which is reputedly the hardest hit. The supermarket shelves seem rammed at the moment - I've just got back from one of them.

My own feeling is that the idea that there are serious problems in the Uk is a European press fiction. 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on October 09, 2021, 07:31:59 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on October 09, 2021, 07:12:01 AM
You're exaggerating the problems, don't believe everything you read. Petrol stations were low  for a short while, but the causes were complex, and Brexit may not have been the main one. Anyway, not one of my suppliers had a problem supplying - I have a property business and I always need tradesmen to call at my houses, but there were zero cancellations due to fuel shortages. This is in London, which is reputedly the hardest hit. The supermarket shelves seem rammed at the moment - I've just got back from one of them.

My own feeling is that the idea that there are serious problems in the Uk is a European press fiction.

My sentiments are not based on press, but people who follow Brexit/UK politics closely. People like Maximilien Robespierre and Michael Lambert.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on October 11, 2021, 01:40:48 PM
Quote from: 71 dB on October 09, 2021, 07:31:59 AM
My sentiments are not based on press, but people who follow Brexit/UK politics closely. People like Maximilien Robespierre and Michael Lambert.

I guess Maximilien Robespierre is a joke - on me as I looked him up. :-[ As for the other feller, I looked him up too. Now I understand where you are coming from with your views.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: MusicTurner on October 11, 2021, 01:55:41 PM
Quote from: Irons on October 11, 2021, 01:40:48 PM
I guess Maximilien Robespierre is a joke - on me as I looked him up. :-[ As for the other feller, I looked him up too. Now I understand where you are coming from with your views.

MR must in this case be a you-tube alias. There is one who has chosen that name, dealing a lot with Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on October 11, 2021, 04:55:10 PM
Quote from: Irons on October 11, 2021, 01:40:48 PM
I guess Maximilien Robespierre is a joke - on me as I looked him up. :-[ 
It is a really funny name for sure, but that is the name of his (I don't know his real name) Youtube Channel taken from the French 18th century lawyer and statesman.

Quote from: Irons on October 11, 2021, 01:40:48 PMAs for the other feller, I looked him up too. Now I understand where you are coming from with your views.

Well, good.  $:)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on October 11, 2021, 11:30:17 PM
Quote from: 71 dB on October 11, 2021, 04:55:10 PM
It is a really funny name for sure, but that is the name of his (I don't know his real name) Youtube Channel taken from the French 18th century lawyer and statesman.

Well, good.  $:)

Oh right. Thanks for explanation as I didn't get past the 18th C statesman.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on October 12, 2021, 04:07:41 AM
Quote from: Irons on October 11, 2021, 11:30:17 PM
Oh right. Thanks for explanation as I didn't get past the 18th C statesman.
Talking to us from the Great Beyond?  :)

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on October 12, 2021, 07:20:33 AM
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on October 12, 2021, 04:07:41 AM
Talking to us from the Great Beyond?  :)

PD

;D
Yes, I thought he may of said "Those Brits don't know their backside from their elbow". Bit disappointed some bloke on a YT channel. :(
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Spotted Horses on October 12, 2021, 07:57:03 AM
I certainly think brexit was a dumb idea and people were led to vote for it for reasons that are generally not valid. But I tire of the haranguing that Brexit is this unimaginable catastrophe. Norway and Switzerland are not EU members, and their lack of EU membership has not banished them to the stone age. The UK will be fine, if different in subtle ways, without EU membership.  It is a tiny blip in the UK's gradual and inevitable descent from dominant global power to global irrelevancy.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on October 12, 2021, 08:18:21 AM
Quote from: Spotted Horses on October 12, 2021, 07:57:03 AM
Norway and Switzerland are not EU members, and their lack of EU membership has not banished them to the stone age.

That's because those countries are less arrogant and are part of EU customs territory and have good trade deals. The UK could have gotten a much softer Brexit, but Boris Johnson & co. didn't want that to appeal to the xenophobes.  :P
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on October 12, 2021, 10:30:47 AM
Quote from: Spotted Horses on October 12, 2021, 07:57:03 AM
I certainly think brexit was a dumb idea and people were led to vote for it for reasons that are generally not valid. But I tire of the haranguing that Brexit is this unimaginable catastrophe. Norway and Switzerland are not EU members, and their lack of EU membership has not banished them to the stone age. The UK will be fine, if different in subtle ways, without EU membership.  It is a tiny blip in the UK's gradual and inevitable descent from dominant global power to global irrelevancy.

If this is not the most sensible post of 90 pages I will eat a LP record and on zoom to prove it. I agree with every word, including I might add, the first and last sentences.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on October 12, 2021, 12:44:22 PM
Quote from: Spotted Horses on October 12, 2021, 07:57:03 AM
I certainly think brexit was a dumb idea and people were led to vote for it for reasons that are generally not valid. But I tire of the haranguing that Brexit is this unimaginable catastrophe. Norway and Switzerland are not EU members, and their lack of EU membership has not banished them to the stone age. The UK will be fine, if different in subtle ways, without EU membership.  It is a tiny blip in the UK's gradual and inevitable descent from dominant global power to global irrelevancy.

Norway is part of the internal market aka the European Economic Area (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Economic_Area), the economic union between the EU members and a few countries that are not a member. The position of Switzerland resembles EEA membership very closely through a myriad of bilateral agreements. (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Switzerland%E2%80%93European_Union_relations)

Though the Brexit referendum was only about EU membership, the Tories decided that leaving the EU wasn't good enough. All close economic ties had to be cut as well, safe for a basic agreement on tariffs on goods.
The UK didn't want to become a "rule taker", and its true: Norway and Switzerland are rule takers with a few exceptions.
But you become a rule taker if you leave the decision making table (the EU), like the UK, or refuse to join due to popular sentiment, like Norway and Switzerland.

Anyway, it's not the renouncing of EU membership that is doing all the economic damage. It is because the UK left the internal market. The "tiny blip" is like boosting a previously very slow process of imperial decline with rocket fuel.

Quote from: Irons on October 12, 2021, 10:30:47 AM
If this is not the most sensible post of 90 pages I will eat a LP record and on zoom to prove it. I agree with every word, including I might add, the first and last sentences.

Well...
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: J.A.W. on October 12, 2021, 01:54:33 PM
Quote from: Que on October 12, 2021, 12:44:22 PM
Norway is part of the internal market aka the European Economic Area (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Economic_Area), the economic union between the EU members and a few countries that are not a member. The position of Switzerland resembles EEA membership very closely through a myriad of agreements.

Though the Brexit referendum was only about EU membership, the Tories decided that leaving the EU wasn't good enough. All close economic ties had to be cut as well, safe for a basic agreement on tariffs on goods.
The UK didn't want to become a "rule taker", and its true: Norway and Switzerland are rule takers with a few exceptions.
But you become a rule taker if you leave the decision making table (the EU), like the UK, or refuse to join due to popular sentiment, like Norway and Switzerland.

Anyway, it's not the renouncing of EU membership that is doing all the economic damage. It is because the UK left the internal market. The "tiny blip" is like boosting a previously very slow process of imperial decline with rocket fuel.

Well...

The various treaties with Switzerland are finite and will expire in due course, as the Swiss government has cut short negotiations on a comprehensive new treaty.to replace the existing ones. Switzerland will then have more or less the same status as the UK.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Scion7 on October 12, 2021, 02:08:39 PM
" . . . the UK's gradual and inevitable descent from dominant global power to global irrelevancy."
Quote from: Irons on October 12, 2021, 10:30:47 AM
If this is not the most sensible post of 90 pages I will eat a LP record and on zoom to prove it. I agree with every word, including I might add, the first and last sentences.

Here's the sticky wicket: England is a strategic nuclear power.  Even with its relatively modest amount of warheads, they are capable of loosing a global catastrophe beyond the scope of our worst nightmare - so, irrelevancy will never be a factor until the world disarms - I won't be waiting at the door for that time to pop up!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on October 12, 2021, 02:16:08 PM
Quote from: J.A.W. on October 12, 2021, 01:54:33 PM
The various treaties with Switzerland are finite and will expire in due course, as the Swiss government has cut short negotiations on a comprehensive new treaty.to replace the existing ones. Switzerland will then have more or less the same status as the UK.

We don't know what is going to happen.

And I'm not aware that current treaties will cease to exist if Switzerland will continue to refuse to agree with the more comprehensive agreement, just that the EU has indicated that it is not willing to further the relationship by continuing to conclude new bilateral agreements. It's threatening therefore with a "standstill", which will gradually erode the economic relationship, not with an "Swizexit". Unless the Swizz themselves would decide to cut the close economic ties. No chance in hell, I would say...
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on October 12, 2021, 02:18:37 PM
Quote from: Scion7 on October 12, 2021, 02:08:39 PM
" . . . the UK's gradual and inevitable descent from dominant global power to global irrelevancy."
Here's the sticky wicket: England is a strategic nuclear power.  Even with its relatively modest amount of warheads, they are capable of loosing a global catastrophe beyond the scope of our worst nightmare - so, irrelevancy will never be a factor until the world disarms - I won't be waiting at the door for that time to pop up!

Pakistan has nuclear weapons as well.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Scion7 on October 12, 2021, 02:25:56 PM
Quote from: Que on October 12, 2021, 02:18:37 PM
Pakistan has nuclear weapons as well.
Quite.  But they aren't a strategic power - they could make a mess of things locally - but they don't have Trident-D capable ballistic missile submarines prowling the ocean with dozens of warheads that are virtually unstoppable. 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: J.A.W. on October 12, 2021, 04:13:58 PM
Quote from: Que on October 12, 2021, 02:16:08 PM
We don't know what is going to happen.

And I'm not aware that current treaties will cease to exist if Switzerland will continue to refuse to agree with the more comprehensive agreement, just that the EU has indicated that it is not willing to further the relationship by continuing to conclude new bilateral agreements. It's threatening therefore with a "standstill", which will gradually erode the economic relationship, not with an "Swizexit". Unless the Swizz themselves would decide to cut the close economic ties. No chance in hell, I would say...

I understand that the current treaties all have an end date, that the EU is not willing to extend them and that they want Switzerland to sign an all-encompassing treaty instead that will replace the existing ones.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on October 12, 2021, 06:00:57 PM
Quote from: J.A.W. on October 12, 2021, 01:54:33 PM
The various treaties with Switzerland are finite and will expire in due course, as the Swiss government has cut short negotiations on a comprehensive new treaty.to replace the existing ones. Switzerland will then have more or less the same status as the UK.

Nevertheless, the comment was about Switzerland's current position, not about its future one. Norway and Switzerland are not good current comparisons for the UK's position, because Norway and Switzerland both have arrangements with the EU that are close than the one the UK has gone for.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: J.A.W. on October 12, 2021, 06:14:55 PM
Quote from: Madiel on October 12, 2021, 06:00:57 PM
Nevertheless, the comment was about Switzerland's current position, not about its future one. Norway and Switzerland are not good current comparisons for the UK's position, because Norway and Switzerland both have arrangements with the EU that are close than the one the UK has gone for.

That's right.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: MusicTurner on October 12, 2021, 11:53:14 PM
Plus Norway has a, to put it rather mildly, a privileged position, due to the ginormous black, slimy substance reserves ...
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: The new erato on October 13, 2021, 02:38:07 AM
You need it for your vinyl LPs!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: MusicTurner on October 13, 2021, 03:17:43 AM
Well, to be fair - who cannot but love Norway anyway ...

(A a side remark, I was re-visiting Joanna Lumley's trip to look for the Northern Lights there the other day, which is accompanied by Grieg music. Really recommended: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZ8xd6xnZ9U ...)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on October 13, 2021, 05:10:23 AM
Quote from: MusicTurner on October 13, 2021, 03:17:43 AM
Well, to be fair - who cannot but love Norway anyway ...

(A a side remark, I was re-visiting Joanna Lumley's trip to look for the Northern Lights there the other day, which is accompanied by Grieg music. Really recommended: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZ8xd6xnZ9U ...)
Thank you so much for sharing that link!  It was wonderful...made me cry to see her so happy and enjoyed watching the video of the lights.

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: MusicTurner on October 13, 2021, 05:45:17 AM
Yes, there are some quite rare moments in it ...
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on October 18, 2021, 04:35:07 AM
Another Brexit "benefit" for the brits:

Tesco products will disappear from S-Market (a BIG supermarket chain here in Finland) because importing the products into Finland has become difficult due to GB's 3rd country status post Brexit. The French Carrefour is planning to fill the gap left by the British retailer.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: MusicTurner on October 18, 2021, 10:42:02 AM
At least Carrefour is good, we've been hoping for them here for quite a long time (no Tescos here, but there is/was some in the Czech Republic, for example).
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: vandermolen on October 18, 2021, 02:10:23 PM
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on October 13, 2021, 05:10:23 AM
Thank you so much for sharing that link!  It was wonderful...made me cry to see her so happy and enjoyed watching the video of the lights.

PD
+1 Lovely piece of film.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: MusicTurner on October 18, 2021, 10:45:33 PM
Quote from: vandermolen on October 18, 2021, 02:10:23 PM
+1 Lovely piece of film.

Yes, one could hope to experience that phenomenon some time. Requires circumstances and logistics suitable for a winter trip into rather remote areas, however.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on October 19, 2021, 04:44:22 AM
Quote from: MusicTurner on October 18, 2021, 10:45:33 PM
Yes, one could hope to experience that phenomenon some time. Requires circumstances and logistics suitable for a winter trip into rather remote areas, however.
I was amazed at how many layers of clothing she had to put on!  ???

Loved watching Ab Fab!  First show that I recall seeing her on here in the States.

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: MusicTurner on October 19, 2021, 05:08:57 AM
Yes, Ab Fab was unusually funny ;D .

I don't know much about her earlier career, but she had been a minor star for quite a lot of decades, apparently.
Amazing how she's similar in ... 1968: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3rgiZMYSFsA
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on October 19, 2021, 05:13:55 AM
Quote from: MusicTurner on October 19, 2021, 05:08:57 AM
Yes, Ab Fab was unusually funny ;D .

I don't know much about her earlier career, but she had been a minor star for decades, apparently.
I always felt sorry for the daughter.   ;)

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on October 19, 2021, 07:00:13 AM
Joanna Lumley is married to a conductor.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on October 19, 2021, 07:06:22 AM
Quote from: Irons on October 19, 2021, 07:00:13 AM
Joanna Lumley is married to a conductor.
Oh, neat!  Have you watched any of her travel shows?  From the one segment that I saw, they look like they would be quite interesting.

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on October 19, 2021, 07:15:02 AM
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on October 19, 2021, 07:06:22 AM
Oh, neat!  Have you watched any of her travel shows?  From the one segment that I saw, they look like they would be quite interesting.

PD

She is a bit of a national treasure, PD. I found out about her musical director husband when she appeared on "Desert Island Discs". Yes, I have followed her travel shows, the best I thought, was India. The visit to the Golden Temple was absolutely amazing.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on October 19, 2021, 09:51:43 AM
Quote from: Irons on October 19, 2021, 07:15:02 AM
She is a bit of a national treasure, PD. I found out about her musical director husband when she appeared on "Desert Island Discs". Yes, I have followed her travel shows, the best I thought, was India. The visit to the Golden Temple was absolutely amazing.
Nice to read that.  I will look to see if I can watch that one on India somewhere.  :)

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on October 30, 2021, 02:23:18 AM
While the deadlock between the UK and the EU on the Northern Ireland protocol continues, the UK raises the stakes:

Frost says Britain's problem with governance of protocol goes beyond role of ECJ (https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/brexit/frost-says-britain-s-problem-with-governance-of-protocol-goes-beyond-role-of-ecj-1.4711126)

"The problem is far too much EU law applies directly in Northern Ireland. That's the core of the problem. We don't see that so much of it should apply. And therefore the interpretive role of the [ECJ]is also limited,"

The core element of the deal on the protocol was that NI would remain part of the internal market. What Frost is advocating boils down to taking NI out of the internal market altogether. He offers some kind of regulatory alignment (with the internal market) instead, but sees at the same time any regulatory divergence between NI and the UK as a key problem:

"But the problem we have – and this is why we keep focusing on long-run stability – is that if you maintain a system where lots of EU law applies without consent, in the end you set up divergence between Northern Ireland and Great Britain as we legislate in a different way."

So how is NI to be kept in simultaneous economic regulatory alignment with the EU and the UK if rules between the two would diverge?  ::)

Another beautiful example of "cakeism".....What the UK is actually aiming for, is blowing up the NI protocol and moving the customs border in the Irish Sea to the border between NI and the Irish Republic.

It's hard to predict what happens next...
The UK is playing a dangerous game. The Irish Republic wants to avoid a hard border with NI and keep the peace at all cost. If the UK doesn't back down, and the Irish cannot get (keep) what they need, I don't rule out the possibility that the entire UK-EU trade deal would be blown up. But that would require Johnson willing to pay that price - would be prepared to do that?

Meanwhile polls show that the majority of the population of NI wants to keep the protocol if some practical difficulties can be ironed out. Of course they do: it would mean keeping the peace and economic prosperity for NI.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on October 30, 2021, 05:58:25 AM
Quote from: Que on October 30, 2021, 02:23:18 AM
While the deadlock between the UK and the EU on the Northern Ireland protocol continues, the UK raises the stakes:

Frost says Britain's problem with governance of protocol goes beyond role of ECJ (https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/brexit/frost-says-britain-s-problem-with-governance-of-protocol-goes-beyond-role-of-ecj-1.4711126)

"The problem is far too much EU law applies directly in Northern Ireland. That's the core of the problem. We don't see that so much of it should apply. And therefore the interpretive role of the [ECJ]is also limited,"

The core element of the deal on the protocol was that NI would remain part of the internal market. What Frost is advocating boils down to taking NI out of the internal market altogether. He offers some kind of regulatory alignment (with the internal market) instead, but sees at the same time any regulatory divergence between NI and the UK as a key problem:

"But the problem we have – and this is why we keep focusing on long-run stability – is that if you maintain a system where lots of EU law applies without consent, in the end you set up divergence between Northern Ireland and Great Britain as we legislate in a different way."

So how is NI to be kept in simultaneous economic regulatory alignment with the EU and the UK if rules between the two would diverge?  ::)

Another beautiful example of "cakeism".....What the UK is actually aiming for, is blowing up the NI protocol and moving the customs border in the Irish Sea to the border between NI and the Irish Republic.

It's hard to predict what happens next...
The UK is playing a dangerous game. The Irish Republic wants to avoid a hard border with NI and keep the peace at all cost. If the UK doesn't back down, and the Irish cannot get (keep) what they need, I don't rule out the possibility that the entire UK-EU trade deal would be blown up. But that would require Johnson willing to pay that price - would be prepared to do that?

Meanwhile polls show that the majority of the population of NI wants to keep the protocol if some practical difficulties can be ironed out. Of course they do: it would mean keeping the peace and economic prosperity for NI.
I've been wondering for some time how things are currently in terms of peace between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland post-Brexit.  What do others here suggest needs to be done to avoid going back to Troubles times?

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on November 01, 2021, 02:14:24 AM
The claim that EU law is going to apply "without consent" demonstrates either of 2 possibilities:

1. The UK government didn't understand what it was agreeing to.
2. The UK government wants to ignore what it agreed to.

The protocol didn't spring into being on its own. It was part of the deal. That the country that made a deal necessary in the first place can't grasp the content is an absolutely searing indictment of the incompetence of the UK government.  It might be different if there'd been a change in which party was governing, but no, we're talking about the exact same government that made the deal it either doesn't understand or pretends it doesn't understand.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on November 07, 2021, 09:33:22 AM
Things are going south, the Brexit saga is drawing to a close:

Brexit: Irish minister says UK 'preparing' to suspend parts of NI deal (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-59198125)


Obviously, the UK govt is not interested in solving problems but instead in creating them...
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on November 10, 2021, 02:31:32 PM
The UK govt keeps raising the stakes:


UK warns Brussels against 'massive and disproportionate retaliation' over Brexit (https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-warns-brussels-against-massive-and-disproportionate-retaliation-over-brexit/)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on November 13, 2021, 12:25:05 AM
An interesting read for those who have the apatite and patience to get into the nitty gritty of the present crisis over the NI protocol:

Welcome to Brexit 2.0 (https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2021/11/welcome-to-brexit-20.html)

"the basis of the government's approach is to re-run the entire Brexit process in the belief that a 'better' outcome than Brexit 1.0 can be secured by Johnson's true believers and the use of 'hardball' tactics. So they would really like to go right back to the beginning of the Article 50 process, and in particular they want to revisit the entirety of the Irish border issue right down to the fundamentals of whether hard Brexit entails any border and all the ideas of supposed technological and administrative solutions that could be applied."
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on November 13, 2021, 12:57:11 AM
Quote from: Que on November 13, 2021, 12:25:05 AM
An interesting read for those who have the apatite and patience to get into the nitty gritty of the present crisis over the NI protocol:

Welcome to Brexit 2.0 (https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2021/11/welcome-to-brexit-20.html)

"the basis of the government's approach is to re-run the entire Brexit process in the belief that a 'better' outcome than Brexit 1.0 can be secured by Johnson's true believers and the use of 'hardball' tactics. So they would really like to go right back to the beginning of the Article 50 process, and in particular they want to revisit the entirety of the Irish border issue right down to the fundamentals of whether hard Brexit entails any border and all the ideas of supposed technological and administrative solutions that could be applied."

You didn't quote the really fun bit after that: "It is shockingly dishonest, if one could be shocked any more by the dishonesty, given that Johnson agreed and signed the [North Ireland Protocol]. It is also shockingly stupid, if one could be shocked any more by the stupidity in the continued boneheaded denial of what hard Brexit means for borders. It's like watching an inordinately obtuse moron endlessly re-calculating 1+1 in the unshakeable belief that eventually the answer will be 3."

And I also like this later line:

"By re-running Brexit, Johnson is going to be under sustained pressure to explain why he signed a deal he now rejects, and why he lied about that deal being an excellent one."
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mandryka on November 26, 2021, 11:17:51 AM
Germany to push for 'United States of Europe' in overhaul of foreign policy

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/germany-back-united-states-europe-152811260.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9waW5rZmlzaG1lZGlhLm5ldC9mb3J1bS90aHJlYWRzL3VuaXRlZC1zdGF0ZXMtb2YtZXVyb3BlLjI2MTgzNS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIRiBPr4C0e6YT0Vxj_JpzU4UsyvF3qN33TS8cxcHWjElS_eFnxyyNI5XV2k80OuVDtoLT_lZAkECNwC4X94GfKXBP69vZeTmzViY62ojvdo2vMZltPfwM3W3ssAmuiaz_Fi7D17Y3bt7nvA1qvpugektpHyVxbGQ66NppjiZavQ
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on November 27, 2021, 12:17:34 AM
Interesting perspective:

Europe has learned nothing from Brexit. Brussels is blind to the economic threat the UK could become. (https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-brexit-lessons-single-market-economy/)

I do not doubt that the UK will recover from this crisis, though I'm not so sure if the relationship with the US will be such a major source of economic strength. Also, I wouldn't describe an economic stronger UK as a "threat" to the EU. The economic ties between the UK and the EU are still so close that the perspective of a zero sum game competition is a total misrepresentation of reality. IMO....
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on November 29, 2021, 07:33:00 AM
Quote from: Que on November 27, 2021, 12:17:34 AM
Interesting perspective:

Europe has learned nothing from Brexit. Brussels is blind to the economic threat the UK could become. (https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-brexit-lessons-single-market-economy/)

I do not doubt that the UK will recover from this crisis, though I'm not so sure if the relationship with the US will be such a major source of economic strength. Also, I wouldn't describe an economic stronger UK as a "threat" to the EU. The economic ties between the UK and the EU are still so close that the perspective of a zero sum game competition is a total misrepresentation of reality. IMO....

I don't quite know what crises the UK is supposed to recover from. Anyway, when the UK has a new Prime Minister and the French a new President the (our) world will be a better place. I do not think a long wait for either.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on December 19, 2021, 01:40:49 AM
Brexit hardliner quits:

Lord Frost resigns as Brexit minister (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-59714241)

I think Frost felt undermined by the reluctance of rest of the UK govt to follow up on his threats in the negotiations with the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol. His resignation increases the chances that the issues over the Protocol will be resolved.
Good news for NI and its business community.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: J.A.W. on December 19, 2021, 02:16:24 PM
Quote from: Que on December 19, 2021, 01:40:49 AM
Brexit hardliner quits:

Lord Frost resigns as Brexit minister (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-59714241)

I think Frost felt undermined by the reluctance of rest of the UK govt to follow up on his threats in the negotiations with the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol. His resignation increases the chances that the issues over the Protocol will be resolved.
Good news for NI and its business community.

Liz Truss replaces Frost:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-59721801 (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-59721801)

I don't think that will help resolve the problems with the NI Protocol.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on December 19, 2021, 11:45:51 PM
Quote from: J.A.W. on December 19, 2021, 02:16:24 PM
Liz Truss replaces Frost:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-59721801 (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-59721801)

I don't think that will help resolve the problems with the NI Protocol.


That would be unfortunate...
Because the current deadlock on the NI Protocol is blocking any improvement in relations between the UK and the EU.

But the political stakes are high. Brexit hardliners want to backpedal on the protocol and move the "economic border" back on the border between the two Irelands. And so do the hardline NI unionists: the NI economy is doing well, but bilateral trade is shifting from the UK to the Irish Republic. Which from an economic perspective was to expected.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on December 19, 2021, 11:48:48 PM
Quote from: J.A.W. on December 19, 2021, 02:16:24 PM
Liz Truss replaces Frost:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-59721801 (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-59721801)

I don't think that will help resolve the problems with the NI Protocol.


Next stop for Liz the lawn at 10 Downing street.

(https://i.imgur.com/mESLoSJ.jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: vandermolen on December 20, 2021, 07:49:49 AM
Quote from: Irons on December 19, 2021, 11:48:48 PM
Next stop for Liz the lawn at 10 Downing street.

(https://i.imgur.com/mESLoSJ.jpg)
As someone said, she's an 'empty vessel'.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: The new erato on December 20, 2021, 08:13:08 AM
As in available to fill with anything?

I thought that was Boris?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: vandermolen on December 20, 2021, 08:20:13 AM
Quote from: The new erato on December 20, 2021, 08:13:08 AM
As in available to fill with anything?

I thought that was Boris?
Yes, him too.

'The immovable moral toad' as one journalist, accurately, put it.

I consider him to be the worst prime-minister in British History, and there are quite a few to choose from.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: The new erato on December 20, 2021, 08:26:51 AM
At least the most opportunistic, undisciplined and unprincipled, whatever one may think about Brexit. So yes.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Florestan on December 20, 2021, 08:36:41 AM
Quote from: The new erato on December 20, 2021, 08:26:51 AM
opportunistic, undisciplined and unprincipled

Don't know about UK but that looks like a fairly accurate description of any number of Romanian politicians, be they presidents (including the current one), prime-ministers (including the current one), ministers (including the current ones) or MPs (including the current ones).  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: The new erato on December 20, 2021, 09:05:18 AM
Quote from: Florestan on December 20, 2021, 08:36:41 AM
Don't know about UK but that looks like a fairly accurate description of any number of Romanian politicians, be they presidents (including the current one), prime-ministers (including the current one), ministers (including the current ones) or MPs (including the current ones).  ;D
Yes, when I visted Bucuresti the tour guide called the city jail for the Romanian Parlament.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Florestan on December 20, 2021, 09:07:36 AM
Quote from: The new erato on December 20, 2021, 09:05:18 AM
Yes, when I visted Bucuresti the tour guide called the city jail for the Romanian Parlament.

Wishful thinking!  :D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: MusicTurner on December 20, 2021, 11:38:31 AM
Absent-minded or stressful day for second-biggest TV station here in DK, where, in a headline on the news website, he is named 'Jonhonson' ...

(~ 'New leak giving Jonhonson problems' ).

I guess they could make his first name look pretty funny too.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Iota on December 20, 2021, 01:03:34 PM
There's a feeling around that by giving
Quote from: J.A.W. on December 19, 2021, 02:16:24 PM
Liz Truss replaces Frost:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-59721801 (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-59721801)

I don't think that will help resolve the problems with the NI Protocol.


I don't imagine Boris Johnson cares very much. There's a feeling around that by giving Liz Truss the Brexit role, he's handing her a poisoned chalice to annul a political rival. It being Boris, I find that very easy to believe. Putting his own political needs ahead of those of the country seems to come naturally to him.

Like vandermolen, I've never known anyone less suited to the role he's in. He was able to campaign because it's about self-promotion, but when it comes to the real stuff he's like a two-dimensional object trying to fill a three-dimensional space, utterly hopeless.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on December 20, 2021, 01:14:14 PM
It's an impossible position for Boris...

He has let Brexit hardliners stoke conflict with the EU to deflect from the fall out from a "failed" Brexit - which is an odd term since Brexit has delivered exactly what was to be expected.

Now he is stuck in a deadlock with the EU: moving forward would make the hole he has dug for his govt even deeper, moving backward is admitting failure and defeat.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: vandermolen on December 21, 2021, 01:15:59 AM
Quote from: Iota on December 20, 2021, 01:03:34 PM
There's a feeling around that by giving
I don't imagine Boris Johnson cares very much. There's a feeling around that by giving Liz Truss the Brexit role, he's handing her a poisoned chalice to annul a political rival. It being Boris, I find that very easy to believe. Putting his own political needs ahead of those of the country seems to come naturally to him.

Like vandermolen, I've never known anyone less suited to the role he's in. He was able to campaign because it's about self-promotion, but when it comes to the real stuff he's like a two-dimensional object trying to fill a three-dimensional space, utterly hopeless.
Yes, Johnson wanted to become PM and wants to have been PM (so that he can appear on chat shows, make lots of money, write books etc) but he doesn't want the bit in the middle (having to do the work). I've thought that from the start.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Iota on December 22, 2021, 04:00:54 AM
Quote from: Que on December 20, 2021, 01:14:14 PM
It's an impossible position for Boris...

He has let Brexit hardliners stoke conflict with the EU to deflect from the fall out from a "failed" Brexit - which is an odd term since Brexit has delivered exactly what was to be expected.

Now he is stuck in a deadlock with the EU: moving forward would make the hole he has dug for his govt even deeper, moving backward is admitting failure and defeat.

The normal response to such impasses has been more can-kicking, so more might be expected I suppose. Liz Truss might at least be more problem-solving than problem-finding, than Frost was.

If the kicked can eventually fell apart and a cornered Johnson went sort of nuclear, triggering a full Article 16, and subsequently provoking the EU into ripping up the whole deal, there are enough disgruntled Brexiteers that he might get a sudden surge of support conceivably. Though I hope that's a very improbable notion.


Quote from: vandermolen on December 21, 2021, 01:15:59 AM
Yes, Johnson wanted to become PM and wants to have been PM (so that he can appear on chat shows, make lots of money, write books etc) but he doesn't want the bit in the middle (having to do the work). I've thought that from the start.

Ditto.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on December 22, 2021, 11:33:18 PM
Quote from: Iota on December 22, 2021, 04:00:54 AM
If the kicked can eventually fell apart and a cornered Johnson went sort of nuclear, triggering a full Article 16, and subsequently provoking the EU into ripping up the whole deal, there are enough disgruntled Brexiteers that he might get a sudden surge of support conceivably. Though I hope that's a very improbable notion.

There's nothing that quite encapsulates the problem like the way that politicians prioritise what is in their own interest rather than what is in the interest of the country.

The world needs more people who are interested in governing rather than politics. The two should really go hand-in-hand, but they don't. We encourage people to be really good at winning a popularity contest, and then whichever collective of people managed to win more popularity contests are rewarded by being given government. Something that has very little at all to do with being liked.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on December 27, 2021, 01:00:08 PM
Don't Laugh! Donald Trump's Scottish golf resorts are hit by Brexit staff shortages and prices have increased from additional freight and import duty charges.

I guess these are the great Brexit business opportunities Trump praised as the president?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on December 28, 2021, 08:55:49 AM
Quote from: 71 dB on December 27, 2021, 01:00:08 PM
Don't Laugh! Donald Trump's Scottish golf resorts are hit by Brexit staff shortages and prices have increased from additional freight and import duty charges.

I guess these are the great Brexit business opportunities Trump praised as the president?
Aw, poor Mr. Trump.

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on January 29, 2022, 02:19:30 PM
The NI Protocol row keeps dragging on, but at least it seems that the issue is in safe hands... 8)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJzYl1cXoAExhib?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on January 30, 2022, 02:04:38 AM
Quote from: Que on January 29, 2022, 02:19:30 PM
The NI Protocol row keeps dragging on, but at least it seems that the issue is in safe hands... 8)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJzYl1cXoAExhib?format=jpg&name=medium)

Turns out when you believe in nothing, the only purpose in life is advocating for yourself.  :-\
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on January 30, 2022, 12:39:50 PM
Quote from: 71 dB on January 30, 2022, 02:04:38 AM
Turns out when you believe in nothing, the only purpose in life is advocating for yourself.  :-\

Turns out that one person is not a government, or any other kind of organisation for that matter.  I'm impressed that you've never ever been in a situation where you advocate one position personally but then your workplace makes a different decision.

I mean heck, I was involved in a debate on a particular point at work maybe 5 years ago, and I lost that debate. I'm occasionally reminded by circumstances about it, and I still hold to the view that I had at the time. Do I implement my view? No, because I know damn well what the policy of my office is, and that the editors (and maybe even the computer system) would mark my work as incorrect if I didn't follow the policy.

I also remember a decision on some point at least 10 years ago, and a colleague at the time muttering under his breath next to me about how he was going to ignore the decision and do something different that he wanted. I remember because the urge to slap him was almost overwhelming. Not least because the office was going through a position where it had a weak leader and problems were being caused by branch heads ignoring the leader and doing their own thing, and people lower down having to work out who to listen to.

This is how the real world works, mister. It's got precisely nothing to do with a lack of belief, and everything to do with understanding that when you're part of ANY form of organisation - a government, a parliament, an entire fucking country - you give up part of your individual autonomy and ability to just do whatever the hell you want. Half the problem with the internet is that people completely forget that this is how life actually works. You've got a platform for expressing views, and forget that outside of cyberspace life doesn't consist simply of expressing views.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: J.A.W. on February 02, 2022, 05:42:44 PM
More problems on the way:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-60237565 (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-60237565)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on February 03, 2022, 12:54:40 AM
Quote from: J.A.W. on February 02, 2022, 05:42:44 PM
More problems on the way:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-60237565 (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-60237565)

Manna from heaven for Boris Johnson. Anything to move on from partygate!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on February 08, 2022, 12:35:04 PM
Absolutely brilliant news!  :)


Jacob Rees-Mogg made Brexit opportunities minister as PM reshuffles team (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60305006)


Opportunities?  ::)  I'm holding my breath for the great things to come...

A prime example is that the UK govt. is curently "considering" ditching new EU car safety standards.

Fun facts:
1. These safety standards were actually introduced for a good reason - the improvement of safety  (obviously... but just pointing this out..)
2. The UK played a large role in developing these improved standards
3. Cars produced in the UK that will not meet these standards cannot be sold in the EU. Will UK car manufacturers design and manufacture different cars for the UK market and countries outside the EU? No, of course not...

But it will allow Brits to buy and drive cars that don't meet these standards from, for instance, the US. Hurray!  :D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: The new erato on February 08, 2022, 02:49:12 PM
It takes an opportunist to recognize opportunities.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on February 08, 2022, 09:40:53 PM
Quote from: The new erato on February 08, 2022, 02:49:12 PM
It takes an opportunistic to recognize opportunities.

They are completely delusional.... :D

I'm still waiting for the first UK politician of influence to advocate rejoing the Internal Market (not the EU).
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mandryka on February 10, 2022, 01:35:55 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FLLmOIvX0AwT_LF?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on February 10, 2022, 04:16:54 AM
The upside is that after Rees-Mogg has had a go, nobody can claim that Brexit failed because it hasn't been done "properly"...

Few are still interested in what law professors have to say, but for those who still do - here is an interesting analysis on two recent reports on the aftermath of Brexit: Benefits of Brexit and Doing things differently?

http://eulawanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/02/hunting-benefits-of-brexit.html
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on February 11, 2022, 04:20:24 AM
Quote from: Que on February 10, 2022, 04:16:54 AM
The upside is that after Rees-Mogg has had a go, nobody can claim that Brexit failed because it hasn't been done "properly"...

Few are still interested in what law professors have to say, but for those who still do - here is an interesting analysis on two recent reports on the aftermath of Brexit: Benefits of Brexit and Doing things differently?

http://eulawanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/02/hunting-benefits-of-brexit.html

Sigh. You can witness pretty much the same furphys about law without the EU being involved at all. I seem them regularly in my job. People who go on campaigns about what they want the law to be very frequently don't know what the law currently is, and consequently have no awareness of whether the law already does what they want, and/or whether the law they're aiming at is even relevant to the issue.

Even for the instructors I work within government, there are sometimes conversations to the effect of "you can do that already, you don't need me to change a law, don't make life more complicated for yourself". But at least within government people will usually listen when you point these things out. It's out in the course of public debate that you really see just how often people debate the law without having actually read it.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on February 17, 2022, 09:29:04 AM
Quote from: Que on February 08, 2022, 12:35:04 PM
Absolutely brilliant news!  :)


Jacob Rees-Mogg made Brexit opportunities minister as PM reshuffles team (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60305006)


Opportunities?  ::)  I'm holding my breath for the great things to come...

Rees-Mogg is off to a flying start - lying through his teeth:

Jacob Rees-Mogg says little evidence Brexit hit trade (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60407234)

"I think Brexit has been extremely beneficial for the country. I think the evidence that Brexit has caused trade drops is few and far between."


Even for the BBC this is too rich as they present all the counter evidence...
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: J.A.W. on February 17, 2022, 01:34:21 PM
Quote from: Que on February 17, 2022, 09:29:04 AM
Rees-Mogg is off to a flying start - lying through his teeth:

Jacob Rees-Mogg says little evidence Brexit hit trade (//http://)

"I think Brexit has been extremely beneficial for the country. I think the evidence that Brexit has caused trade drops is few and far between."


Even for the BBC this is too rich as they present all the counter evidence...

The link doesn't work on my computer.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on February 17, 2022, 01:54:21 PM
Quote from: J.A.W. on February 17, 2022, 01:34:21 PM
The link doesn't work on my computer.

My bad... Fixed - it now takes you to the BBC.

BTW If denial is going (remaining) the Bexit strategy, Tory Brexiteers are going to run out of road pretty soon.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on February 23, 2022, 11:22:07 PM
And now Labour is digging a hole for itself as well...

Starmer: Labour will partner with private sector and take advantage of Brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/feb/23/starmer-labour-will-partner-with-private-sector-and-take-advantage-of-brexit)

I guess that even a change of govt will not offer the UK a reprieve from Brexit. The collective delusion is now complete!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on February 24, 2022, 01:31:45 AM
Quote from: Que on February 23, 2022, 11:22:07 PM
I guess that even a change of govt will not offer the UK a reprieve from Brexit.

Well how could it? The European Union is not simply a matter of a UK government policy. Surely we've learned that by now. The process of joining the EU takes years.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: JBS on February 24, 2022, 09:19:02 AM
Brexit is over, even though its consequences haven't fully played out.

What would have to happen now is a move to rejoin the EU, and I doubt there is enough sentiment to fuel it anytime in the near future.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on February 24, 2022, 10:15:56 AM
Quote from: JBS on February 24, 2022, 09:19:02 AM
Brexit is over, even though its consequences haven't fully played out.

What would have to happen now is a move to rejoin the EU, and I doubt there is enough sentiment to fuel it anytime in the near future.

There is another obvious option to avoid the current economic damage besides (re)joining the EU: and that is (re)joining the Internal market as a non-member.The "Norway option", if that does ring a bell?

That the EU will not readmit the UK as member even if the UK wanted to, probably for many decades to come, is abundantly clear. But the EU will be willing to reestablish full economic ties. But for some reason this is either too complicated or too politically sensitive to be publicly even considered. Of course this was also an option when the UK left the EU, but resolutely brushed away...
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Florestan on February 24, 2022, 11:30:44 AM
C'mon, guys! Compared to the Russian invasion of Ukraine Brexit looks like a stroll in the park at noonday.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on February 24, 2022, 12:33:46 PM
Quote from: Que on February 24, 2022, 10:15:56 AM
There is another obvious option to avoid the current economic damage besides (re)joining the EU: and that is (re)joining the Internal market as a non-member.The "Norway option", if that does ring a bell?

That still wouldn't involve undoing Brexit. I feel like you're jumping to conclusions with your original comment about Labour.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on February 24, 2022, 12:35:17 PM
Quote from: Florestan on February 24, 2022, 11:30:44 AM
C'mon, guys! Compared to the Russian invasion of Ukraine Brexit looks like a stroll in the park at noonday.

Then go talk about that in the appropriate thread.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on March 03, 2022, 07:43:09 AM
Quote from: Florestan on February 24, 2022, 11:30:44 AM
C'mon, guys! Compared to the Russian invasion of Ukraine Brexit looks like a stroll in the park at noonday.

A stroll in the park is pleasant, Brexit is boring. Who cares anyway, the world has far more important things to worry about.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on March 03, 2022, 08:57:47 AM
Quote from: Irons on March 03, 2022, 07:43:09 AM
A stroll in the park is pleasant, Brexit is boring. Who cares anyway, the world has far more important things to worry about.

In a way Brexit has always been boring... 8)

But besides matters of war and peace, our quality of life is determined by boring things like science, law, international cooperation and economics.

On the other hand Brexit is less boring and less different than the "more important" things that are happening right now.
Since IMO ideologically Brexit stands for identity politics, nationalism, and anti-globalism. In the free and democratic part of the world we need significantly less of that, instead of more. If we are able to recognise the priorities for the survival of our way of life, that is...
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on March 04, 2022, 01:42:41 AM
Quote from: Que on March 03, 2022, 08:57:47 AM
In a way Brexit has always been boring... 8)

But besides matters of war and peace, our quality of life is determined by boring things like science, law, international cooperation and economics.

On the other hand Brexit is less boring and less different than the "more important" things that are happening right now.
Since IMO ideologically Brexit stands for identity politics, nationalism, and anti-globalism. In the free and democratic part of the world we need significantly less of that, instead of more. If we are able to recognise the priorities for the survival of our way of life, that is...

Politically you may be correct. Being a UK resident gives me qualification to comment on the *actuality* of Brexit. The country has not gone to hell in a handcart as Remainers told us it would. By the same token the sunny uplands of a great new future away from the EU shackles leavers promised has failed to materialise. In other words life pre and post Brexit is the same. The only noticeable consequence of Brexit in day to day life is the difficulty of finding and hiring a builder or plumber.   
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on March 04, 2022, 03:32:22 AM
Quote from: Irons on March 04, 2022, 01:42:41 AM
In other words life pre and post Brexit is the same.

Well, that's a good thing.   :) 

The numbers on the economy or the geopolitics don't look the same. But if that hasn't afected you, all the better.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: foxandpeng on March 04, 2022, 03:51:26 AM
Quote from: Que on March 04, 2022, 03:32:22 AM
Well, that's a good thing.   :) 

The numbers on the economy or the geopolitics don't look the same. But if that hasn't afected you, all the better.

I usually really dislike the non-music threads here, because some of the heated discussions feel a bit too much like my work day (I work for one of the deeply affected Ministries for Silly Walks here in the UK).

Brexit has largely just become a 'business as usual' fait accompli for most of us, as the article below from the left-leaning Guardian lnk shows.

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/31/post-brexit-economic-crisis-labour-eu-britain (https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/31/post-brexit-economic-crisis-labour-eu-britain)

As many have indicated already, we sadly have bigger concerns at present.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Iota on March 30, 2022, 08:43:50 AM
Whilst personally I haven't yet felt any particular privations from Brexit (though have a friend whose large and thriving business collapsed almost completely) these rather stark and media-ignored figures seem sobering.

I'm no expert but for such a disparity between the UK's export figures and the rest of the world's, I imagine a rather large number of businesses are not feeling particularly enraptured by Boris' "sunlit uplands". ::)  And with the outlook notably short on sunshine, I wonder if the bite will gradually start to be felt more widely.


https://www.ft.com/content/021c629d-5853-4111-9600-ab5f0eb65a35

'UK goods exports have underperformed the rest of the world in what experts said was a sign that Brexit might be limiting the country's trade performance.

The volume of UK goods exports fell 14 per cent in the three months to January compared with the same period in 2020, before the pandemic, according to the world trade monitor published on Friday by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, known as the CPB. This was in stark contrast to the global average of an 8.2 per cent rise over the same period.

The data, which incorporates Office for National Statistics data for the UK, also showed that Britain compared poorly with the performance of all advanced countries where goods exports rose 5 per cent.

The analysis also showed that the UK was underperforming over the long term as it was the only country tracked by the CPB where goods exports remained below the 2010 average.

"While most other advanced economies have seen a strong recovery in trade, UK exports remain below pre-pandemic levels," said Jonathan Portes, professor of economics at King's College London.
'
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on March 30, 2022, 09:59:22 AM
Quote from: Irons on March 04, 2022, 01:42:41 AMIn other words life pre and post Brexit is the same.

Good for you! As a Finn living in Finland who had no say in the Brexit referendum I feel the Brexit in my life. For example If I order Blu-rays from ARROWFILMS I now have to pay VAT twice, the UK VAT + Finnish VAT making purchases significantly less attractive. Fortunately some British online stores such as Amazon are in IOSS system making ordering from them as easy as before Brexit, but my options of purchase have reduced.

All brits are not as lucky as you. One Michael Lambert whose Youtube videos I have been watching had a business with 300 clients all over the Europe he had built over 15 years. He lost all of that business in one night when Brexit came into effect. Why? Because his clients in Europe won't hassle with all the paperwork and expenses the Brexit means.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on March 30, 2022, 07:25:17 PM
Quote from: 71 dB on March 30, 2022, 09:59:22 AM
I now have to pay VAT twice, the UK VAT + Finnish VAT making purchases significantly less attractive.

Well that just sounds incorrect. For example, Presto has never charged me UK VAT because they know I'm buying externally. It sounds like you're buying from a UK company that has got this wrong.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: J.A.W. on March 30, 2022, 11:42:09 PM
Quote from: Madiel on March 30, 2022, 07:25:17 PM
Well that just sounds incorrect. For example, Presto has never charged me UK VAT because they know I'm buying externally. It sounds like you're buying from a UK company that has got this wrong.

VAT is now charged by Presto on orders from EU residents, using the IOSS scheme: https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/ioss_en (https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/ioss_en), which means they don't have to pay VAT on arrival anymore - if everything goes right, that is; my first order from Presto since this came into effect went horribly wrong and I was charged twice; fortunately, it was refunded.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on March 31, 2022, 10:05:06 AM
Quote from: Madiel on March 30, 2022, 07:25:17 PM
Well that just sounds incorrect. For example, Presto has never charged me UK VAT because they know I'm buying externally. It sounds like you're buying from a UK company that has got this wrong.

Yes, it is incorrect, but they still do it. As a customer I can do nothing but stop doing business with them (that's what I have done). If I have understood correctly, it is the Hut Group that has this fault and Arrowfilms is nowadays owned by the Hut Group, unfortunately. Arrowfilms became my favorite Blu-ray publisher just before Brexit and this merger with the HUT Group...  :P

Quote from: J.A.W. on March 30, 2022, 11:42:09 PM
VAT is now charged by Presto on orders from EU residents, using the IOSS scheme: https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/ioss_en (https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/ioss_en), which means they don't have to pay VAT on arrival anymore - if everything goes right, that is; my first order from Presto since this came into effect went horribly wrong and I was charged twice; fortunately, it was refunded.

IOSS is great! When it works it is like ordering before Brexit. Good for Presto! Sorry to hear your first order went wrong, but I suppose things are working now. I made an order from Amazon.co.uk in February and IOSS worked beautifully!  0:)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: MusicTurner on April 06, 2022, 08:53:23 PM
Brexit obviously receded a bit as a subject, & I haven't followed it much lately, but nonetheless this caught one's interest a bit:

"One part of a queue out the U.K. last Friday. I'm not exaggerating - operation brock wasn't long enough for the sheer amount of trucks waiting to queue.
I counted 24 miles - and that didn't include the road into Dover docks.
"

https://twitter.com/vanmaneuro/status/1511830832876560388
https://twitter.com/vanmaneuro/status/1511831526043959302

It seems like something has to be fixed ...

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on April 06, 2022, 11:47:48 PM
Quote from: MusicTurner on April 06, 2022, 08:53:23 PM

It seems like something has to be fixed ...

What about common rules agreed between the UK and its trading partners to reduce red tape and facilitate trade?

Oh wait, that's the situation where we came from...  >:D 

I see no fix other than the UK rejoining the internal market (which is not the same as rejoing the EU).
The British economy is struggling. The longer they wait, the more damage will be done.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on April 07, 2022, 04:07:13 AM
Quote from: Que on April 06, 2022, 11:47:48 PM
What about common rules agreed between the UK and its trading partners to reduce red tape and facilitate trade?

Oh wait, that's the situation where we came from...  >:D 

I see no fix other than the UK rejoining the internal market (which is not the same as rejoing the EU).
The British economy is struggling. The longer they wait, the more damage will be done.

Absolutely correct! If the UK insists being outside EU then so be it, but they could learn something from Norwegians who are smart enough to be part of the European internal market.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on April 07, 2022, 04:44:44 AM
Quote from: MusicTurner on April 06, 2022, 08:53:23 PM
Brexit obviously receded a bit as a subject, & I haven't followed it much lately, but nonetheless this caught one's interest a bit:

"One part of a queue out the U.K. last Friday. I'm not exaggerating - operation brock wasn't long enough for the sheer amount of trucks waiting to queue.
I counted 24 miles - and that didn't include the road into Dover docks.
"

https://twitter.com/vanmaneuro/status/1511830832876560388
https://twitter.com/vanmaneuro/status/1511831526043959302

It seems like something has to be fixed ...
Wow!  :(  How could the UK join the internal market?

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on April 07, 2022, 06:57:36 AM
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on April 07, 2022, 04:44:44 AM
Wow!  :(  How could the UK join the internal market?

PD

By signing up to the European Free Trade Association (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Free_Trade_Association) and the Agreement on the European Economic Area (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Economic_Area), like Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. Or negotiate with the EU a separate but similar treaty to the latter.

But the UK doesn't want to become a "vassal state"...  ::)

Which leads on back to full membership... Brexit logic is full of vicious circles!  :D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on April 07, 2022, 07:22:13 AM
Perhaps PD meant how the brits are mentally ready to join rather than how it would happen in practise?

12 years of Tory rule in post-factual World has turned the mental clocks 100 years backwards to the times when the brits "ruled half the World." The UK seems to be a nation in decline economically, politically and democratically which is sad not only for themselves, but also for the whole Europe. If anything good comes out of Brexit, it is forcing the brits to open their eyes and see what is happening in their country possibly starting a change to stop the decline and allowing the improvement of things.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on April 07, 2022, 07:44:57 AM
Quote from: 71 dB on April 07, 2022, 07:22:13 AM
Perhaps PD meant how the brits are mentally ready to join rather than how it would happen in practise?

Not any time soon.... After all, it it very painfull to admit a wrong decision and even considering the possibility is unsettling and confusing. And this was a decision that was - through political manipulation - closely tied to the UK's self image as a nation.

Cognitive Bias & The Sunk Cost Fallacy (https://wiobyrne.com/cognitive-bias-the-sunk-cost-fallacy/)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Iota on April 07, 2022, 11:40:48 AM
Quote from: Que on April 07, 2022, 07:44:57 AM
Not any time soon.... After all, it it very painfull to admit a wrong decision and even considering the possibility is unsettling and confusing. And this was a decision that was - through political manipulation - closely tied to the UK's self image as a nation.

Cognitive Bias & The Sunk Cost Fallacy (https://wiobyrne.com/cognitive-bias-the-sunk-cost-fallacy/)

That's probably true. But I also think most people who voted Leave voted so for ideological reasons, not economic ones, wanting to take back control etc, etc, and tbh I think for now many of those people feel they've broadly achieved that aim, and are prepared to take the economic hit that goes with it. Brexit was never about logic, it was about a 'feeling', and people still appear quite happy about it.

Time may shift these things around of course, but it doesn't feel imminent. The Opposition party (Labour) already rather useless, is rendered completely toothless on the issue. A while ago I posted some rather stark figures here on how post-Brexit UK is lagging significantly behind much of the rest of the world on exports. And you would normally expect the Opposition to pounce on such figures and berate the Government mercilessly on their performance, but not a whisper. The reason being that Labour lost many of their supposedly safe Red Wall seats (constituencies where Brexit voter percentages are high) to the Tories in the last election and desperately need to get them back to have any chance of regaining power. Thus we have paralysis ...

Lovely being back where we belong again.  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on April 08, 2022, 02:30:09 PM
The problem with wanting to "take back control" is misidentifying the reasons you don't feel like you have control in the first place.

But politicians and others play on these feelings over and over.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Iota on April 10, 2022, 04:44:37 AM
Quote from: Madiel on April 08, 2022, 02:30:09 PM
The problem with wanting to "take back control" is misidentifying the reasons you don't feel like you have control in the first place.

But politicians and others play on these feelings over and over.

Whether Leave voters misidentified their reasons for wanting to do so I cannot say, but even if they did, rational argument to the contrary would have had little effect I think. In the setting of what's perceived as a fractured, alienated society, I think many people had a hankering to return to an amorphous vision of Britain as it was in the 50s or 60s say (with all the mod cons of course), before multiculturalism, political correctness, the EU, etc. And there has indeed been a relentless anti-EU campaign by right-wing media barons and certain political factions for years, feeding such feelings of disenchantment, particularly with regard to the EU, and there's no doubt it found fertile territory. And when Brexit came along, it was a perfect opportunity for all those feelings of frustration to find expression, and one that was eagerly taken. 

And as I said, so far, those people seem to broadly feel that Shangri-la has been sufficiently achieved to make it feel it worthwhile, however illusory that feeling might be. There has been no shock impact, discomforts yes, but they can be written off as part and parcel of life's standard imperfections (for now anyway, and future problems will no doubt be blamed by media barons and chums on a vindictive EU etc). The important itch that wanted scratching was the 'feeling' of shaking off of the EU controlling our destiny, and that itch appears to have been ticked.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on April 10, 2022, 06:28:26 AM
Quote from: Iota on April 10, 2022, 04:44:37 AM
Whether Leave voters misidentified their reasons for wanting to do so I cannot say

Well I'm not quite saying that. I'm saying people misidentify the actual reasons they aren't in control.

The reason they want to do something is obvious - because they believe it will make a difference. The problem is, people are usually wrong about that. They pick a lever to press that isn't actually connected to anything.  It's the equivalent of deciding that my car will go faster if I clean the side windows.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Iota on April 10, 2022, 07:50:30 AM
Quote from: Madiel on April 10, 2022, 06:28:26 AM
Well I'm not quite saying that. I'm saying people misidentify the actual reasons they aren't in control.

The reason they want to do something is obvious - because they believe it will make a difference. The problem is, people are usually wrong about that. They pick a lever to press that isn't actually connected to anything.  It's the equivalent of deciding that my car will go faster if I clean the side windows.

I agree that's often true. Though even if they are wrong about it in the case of Brexit, it doesn't change the above, they still seem to 'feel' that things are better now, that the EU weight has been lifted from the country's shoulders, and that's what they wanted. Explaining where they're going wrong, won't make a whole lot of difference, and didn't before, it was tried endlessly. 'You can sway a thousand men by appealing to their prejudices quicker than you can convince one man by logic' etc.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on April 12, 2022, 07:24:50 AM
Quote from: MusicTurner on April 06, 2022, 08:53:23 PM
Brexit obviously receded a bit as a subject, & I haven't followed it much lately, but nonetheless this caught one's interest a bit:

"One part of a queue out the U.K. last Friday. I'm not exaggerating - operation brock wasn't long enough for the sheer amount of trucks waiting to queue.
I counted 24 miles - and that didn't include the road into Dover docks.
"

https://twitter.com/vanmaneuro/status/1511830832876560388
https://twitter.com/vanmaneuro/status/1511831526043959302

It seems like something has to be fixed ...

Nothing to do with the B word. P&O Ferries took the despicable decision without warning to sack their total seafaring workforce of 800. Then to hire cheaper untrained labour they already had lined up. This has resulted in a stand-off between P&O and the government. As far as I'm aware P&O ferries are yet to restart operations. 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: MusicTurner on April 12, 2022, 07:41:46 AM
'Nothing to do with ...' is probably going a little far, since discussions seem to meander around the degree of 1) the sackings, and 2) the introduction of new computer systems for Post-Brexit custom services, are influencing the queues; some reports say that drivers have to spend 15 minutes for their computerized 'clearance'.  Apparently the situation with the system's start problems is expected to improve.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on April 12, 2022, 11:41:04 PM
I do not disagree, not saying for a moment that all sweetness and light but the P&O debacle was a very special circumstance and should not be used in the Brexit debate.

My Brexit rant is the price of the national dish, the humble fish and chips. Predicted that soon a meal that will rival steak in cost. An island surrounded by sea and the beastly (joke) French fishermen sent on their way prices were supposed to tumble not head in the opposite direction. The "cod wars" suddenly went very quiet. I guess as with everything else we marched up the hill and then marched down again!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: steve ridgway on April 13, 2022, 09:58:32 PM
It's more the greasy palm oil left coating the inside of our mouths that puts us off fish and chips nowadays. :(
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on April 28, 2022, 10:41:45 AM
Brexit import checks delayed for fourth time (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61259832)

Comment of Rees-Mogg with the Orwellian title of "Minister for Brexit Opportunities and Government Efficiency":
Mr Rees-Mogg said it would have been "an act of self-harm" if the government had decided to go ahead with the import controls.

So, you want the sovereignty to set your own rules but it would be "an act of self harm" to enforce them?
The irony is, he is actually  right... But then again, Brexit as such was "an act of self harm".

Are we ready yet, to wake up from the post imperial dreams of self delusion?  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on April 29, 2022, 12:31:01 AM
UK ports consider legal action after Rees-Mogg delays Brexit controls

Companies fear millions wasted on hurriedly built infrastructure as minister delays import checks for fourth time
(https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/28/uk-sea-ports-consider-legal-action-delay-brexit-controls-jacob-rees-mogg)


"Millions wasted", that sounds like an accurate description.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on April 29, 2022, 02:34:37 AM
Quote from: Que on April 29, 2022, 12:31:01 AM
UK ports consider legal action after Rees-Mogg delays Brexit controls

Companies fear millions wasted on hurriedly built infrastructure as minister delays import checks for fourth time
(https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/28/uk-sea-ports-consider-legal-action-delay-brexit-controls-jacob-rees-mogg)

"Millions wasted", that sounds like an accurate description.

Money always goes somewhere, even wasted money. In the case of the UK, wasted money flows to the pockets of rich and well-connected people. I am sure if we investicated the firm(s) who bild the ports infrastructure for import checks, we'd find out the owners of those film(s) have close ties to members of the current goverment. Why do I say this? Because having followed the UK politics for a while a pattern has emerged: This kind of corruption is how the UK operates these days as a nation. It might be the root cause for all this insanity...  :P
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on April 29, 2022, 06:37:47 AM
Quote from: Que on April 28, 2022, 10:41:45 AM
Brexit import checks delayed for fourth time (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61259832)

Comment of Rees-Mogg with the Orwellian title of "Minister for Brexit Opportunities and Government Efficiency":
Mr Rees-Mogg said it would have been "an act of self-harm" if the government had decided to go ahead with the import controls.

So, you want the sovereignty to set your own rules but it would be "an act of self harm" to enforce them?
The irony is, he is actually  right... But then again, Brexit as such was "an act of self harm".

Are we ready yet, to wake up from the post imperial dreams of self delusion?  ::)

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on April 29, 2022, 08:14:38 AM
Quote from: 71 dB on April 29, 2022, 02:34:37 AM
Money always goes somewhere, even wasted money. In the case of the UK, wasted money flows to the pockets of rich and well-connected people. I am sure if we investicated the firm(s) who bild the ports infrastructure for import checks, we'd find out the owners of those film(s) have close ties to members of the current goverment. Why do I say this? Because having followed the UK politics for a while a pattern has emerged: This kind of corruption is how the UK operates these days as a nation. It might be the root cause for all this insanity...  :P

Eh? Have you actually read any of the links? The ports have spent a lot of their own money. And if the import checks aren't introduced they can't recoup it.

The principle was explained in the TV show Yes Minister decades ago: why introduce a conspiracy theory when incompetence provides a perfectly serviceable explanation?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Florestan on April 29, 2022, 08:24:50 AM
Quote from: Madiel on April 29, 2022, 08:14:38 AM
why introduce a conspiracy theory when incompetence provides a perfectly serviceable explanation?

A most wise principle, valid for quite a lot of things and countries.  :D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on April 29, 2022, 08:26:44 AM
Quote from: Madiel on April 29, 2022, 08:14:38 AM
Eh? Have you actually read any of the links? The ports have spent a lot of their own money. And if the import checks aren't introduced they can't recoup it.

The principle was explained in the TV show Yes Minister decades ago: why introduce a conspiracy theory when incompetence provides a perfectly serviceable explanation?

The problems of the ports are very clear. I do understand it, off course. What I am talking about is the money those ports spent went somewhere. Firms building the port infrastructure got their business and money (what they wouldn't have got without Brexit, because there wouldn't be a "need" for the infrastructure). If the ports can demand money back from the government for the mess, it is tax payer money. So, in a way this is a way to transfer tax payer money to port infrastructure companies "laundered" through the ports...

Political incompetence is often the imcompetence of serving the nation and its people, but it is not incompetence in enriching yourself and your close circles of power and wealth.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on April 29, 2022, 03:26:31 PM
Quote from: 71 dB on April 29, 2022, 08:26:44 AM
The problems of the ports are very clear. I do understand it, off course. What I am talking about is the money those ports spent went somewhere. Firms building the port infrastructure got their business and money (what they wouldn't have got without Brexit, because there wouldn't be a "need" for the infrastructure). If the ports can demand money back from the government for the mess, it is tax payer money. So, in a way this is a way to transfer tax payer money to port infrastructure companies "laundered" through the ports...

Political incompetence is often the imcompetence of serving the nation and its people, but it is not incompetence in enriching yourself and your close circles of power and wealth.

That's a mighty BIG if in the middle of your reasoning.

I mean, next you're going to start arguing it's a secret plan to enrich the legal profession when all the cases go to court.

And that's the problem. You look at a situation and assume it must be planned. For some reason people like believing in elaborate plans. Possibly it's because our best dramatic fiction involves elaborate cunning plans that are gradually revealed to us, as puzzles to be solved. I'm currently watching a pretty entertaining Danish series called "Bedrag" (Deception, though sadly in English they've actually called it Follow the Money), where in both the seasons I've watched the chief villain of the piece has constructed a devilishly elaborate plan to enrich himself that others haven't been able to spot until it's too late for them.

But anyone who works in government, at least, will tell you that real life is exactly the opposite. People don't plan ENOUGH. I'm a highly analytical person and a huge part of my job is pointing out to people the things they haven't thought through enough, the consequences they haven't spotted, the risks they haven't addressed.

We live in an actual world where many people aren't capable of working out that the next traffic light is likely to change before they get there. You're the kind of person who looks at the particular risk that has actually happened, and wrongly reason that this must be the outcome that someone planned. No, it's just one of the several or many possibilities that someone didn't guard against sufficiently to prevent.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Florestan on April 30, 2022, 05:08:09 AM
Quote from: Madiel on April 29, 2022, 03:26:31 PM
That's a mighty BIG if in the middle of your reasoning.

I mean, next you're going to start arguing it's a secret plan to enrich the legal profession when all the cases go to court.

And that's the problem. You look at a situation and assume it must be planned. For some reason people like believing in elaborate plans. Possibly it's because our best dramatic fiction involves elaborate cunning plans that are gradually revealed to us, as puzzles to be solved. I'm currently watching a pretty entertaining Danish series called "Bedrag" (Deception, though sadly in English they've actually called it Follow the Money), where in both the seasons I've watched the chief villain of the piece has constructed a devilishly elaborate plan to enrich himself that others haven't been able to spot until it's too late for them.

But anyone who works in government, at least, will tell you that real life is exactly the opposite. People don't plan ENOUGH. I'm a highly analytical person and a huge part of my job is pointing out to people the things they haven't thought through enough, the consequences they haven't spotted, the risks they haven't addressed.

We live in an actual world where many people aren't capable of working out that the next traffic light is likely to change before they get there. You're the kind of person who looks at the particular risk that has actually happened, and wrongly reason that this must be the outcome that someone planned. No, it's just one of the several or many possibilities that someone didn't guard against sufficiently to prevent.

If I were 71dB I'd point out that, while your analysis is correct, the outcome of all that incompetence is more often than not that the rich and the powerful get richer and more powerful --- and very rarely that the poor and the powerless enrich or empower themselves.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on April 30, 2022, 05:19:07 AM
Quote from: Florestan on April 30, 2022, 05:08:09 AM
If I were 71dB I'd point out that, while your analysis is correct, the outcome of all that incompetence is more often than not that the rich and the powerful get richer and more powerful --- and very rarely that the poor and the powerless enrich or empower themselves.

Thanks for pointing this out for me. I am not interested to argue much about these things so I left it as it is. Nowadays when I start arguing about stuff on forums I get in trouble with the admin, so I don't do it anymore. Why bother? I won't change anyones mind, nor do I benefit from changing anyones mind. It is waste of time that results in bans and what not. No thanks. I say what I think once and leave it as that.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on April 30, 2022, 03:35:39 PM
...the possibility of your own mind being changed is startlingly absent from the calculation.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on April 30, 2022, 03:38:16 PM
Quote from: Florestan on April 30, 2022, 05:08:09 AM
If I were 71dB I'd point out that, while your analysis is correct, the outcome of all that incompetence is more often than not that the rich and the powerful get richer and more powerful --- and very rarely that the poor and the powerless enrich or empower themselves.

Sure. But that's also true when things go RIGHT. Having money and power is what gives you the ability to take opportunities, and it's also what gives you the ability to take action to recover when things go wrong. The port owners have the resources to threaten a lawsuit over this.

What doesn't follow, though, is the idea that anyone deliberately planned to get into a situation where the ports are threatening a lawsuit. There are easier ways to make money.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on May 01, 2022, 04:32:40 AM
Well, there actually was a conspiracy of some sorts.... And it was not about money but about power.

The right wing of the Conservative Party used Brexit, and the referendum on Brexit, to take control of the party and subsequently the country. All they had to do was channel all popular discontent, and there was (and is) plenty of that, towards the notion that a break up with the EU would solve all problems. And Boris jumped on that bandwagon to become PM.

I'd recommend watching Brexit: The Uncivil War (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit:_The_Uncivil_War)

The slogan "take back control" was sold to the British as a way taking their destiny in their own hands. I reality it resulted in a take over of the UK by the British version of "neo-conservatives".
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on May 01, 2022, 04:38:12 AM
Oh I can agree with that particular bit of plotting. Because far too many politicians spend all their time plotting about their own gain of power. They just have zero clue what to do with it once they have it...
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: 71 dB on May 01, 2022, 09:48:35 AM
Quote from: Madiel on April 30, 2022, 03:35:39 PM
...the possibility of your own mind being changed is startlingly absent from the calculation.

I don't have a firm opinion about this issue. All I have is speculation based on recognising patterns in UK politics. Maybe in the future someone explores this deep and provides better information. Even if I had a firm opinion, I don't see how changing it would matter at all. The World would still be what it is including your life. I am often wrong, because my mind recognises patterns a lot generating all kind of narratives that may or may not be true. That's who I am in good and bad.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on May 03, 2022, 06:58:27 AM
Quote from: 71 dB on May 01, 2022, 09:48:35 AM
I don't have a firm opinion about this issue. All I have is speculation based on recognising patterns in UK politics. Maybe in the future someone explores this deep and provides better information. Even if I had a firm opinion, I don't see how changing it would matter at all. The World would still be what it is including your life. I am often wrong, because my mind recognises patterns a lot generating all kind of narratives that may or may not be true. That's who I am in good and bad.

Must be me, but I read your post three times and still have no idea.......
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on June 28, 2022, 01:17:53 AM
An update on Brexit.. Or not really, because the general picture is the same as always: it is still a stupid decision, it is still not over and the Tory govt. still tries to make sense of it all by making additional stupid decisions and selling fairy tales...


Move to override Brexit deal gets initial backing from MPs (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-61959526)

Six years on, the cold reality of Brexit is hitting Britain (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/27/six-years-on-the-cold-reality-of-brexit-is-hitting-britain)


Meanwhile the OECD has predicted that the growth of the UK economy will be the lowest of the G20, apart from Russia. Nonsense, according to UK ministers...  I guess economists at the OECD is are incompetent?

Also has the Ukraine crisis reaffirmed the strategic and geopolitical significance of the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: MusicTurner on June 28, 2022, 06:08:15 AM
Sturgeon announcing a new Scottish independence referendum in October 2023; if rejected by the court, then with a 'guiding' result.

There was a referendum in 2014 too (55-45).
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Florestan on June 28, 2022, 07:06:34 AM
Quote from: MusicTurner on June 28, 2022, 06:08:15 AM
Sturgeon announcing a new Scottish independence referendum in October 2023; if rejected by the court, then with a 'guiding' result.

There was a referendum in 2014 too (55-45).

Well, had the UK remained in EU Scottish independence would have been truly unthinkable and unfeasible (Spain, France and Romania would have vetoed it for obvious reasons).  Now that they are outside EU, they may have their chance.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: steve ridgway on June 28, 2022, 07:23:22 AM
It would solve the problem of a customs border in the Irish Sea. ;)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on June 28, 2022, 08:27:38 AM
Quote from: Florestan on June 28, 2022, 07:06:34 AM
Well, had the UK remained in EU Scottish independence would have been truly unthinkable and unfeasible (Spain, France and Romania would have vetoed it for obvious reasons).  Now that they are outside EU, they may have their chance.

Indeed, one of the key arguments made AGAINST Scottish independence was that they wouldn't be able to stay in the EU.

Rarely has a country been so screwed over as Scotland was in that process. Boris Johnson's insistence that Scotland can't have another referendum, when the English changed the whole situation shortly afterwards, is simply ludicrous. Scotland has effectively voted twice to be in the EU, and was dragged out of it.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on June 28, 2022, 08:34:00 AM
Quote from: MusicTurner on June 28, 2022, 06:08:15 AM
Sturgeon announcing a new Scottish independence referendum in October 2023; if rejected by the court, then with a 'guiding' result.

There was a referendum in 2014 too (55-45).


I think at least 60% needs to be in favour of independence for the result to be convincing en politically relevant.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on July 22, 2022, 03:48:06 AM

Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland: Commission launches four new infringement procedures against the UK (https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_4663)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on July 22, 2022, 03:34:16 PM
Eventually the UK is going to have to decide which of 1. The Good Friday agreements, 2. Brexit and 3. Treating Northern Ireland as a part of the UK like any other it can do without.

Because you can logically only have 2 of these 3.

It so happens that the first two involve international agreements.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on July 23, 2022, 09:13:49 AM
Quote from: Madiel on June 28, 2022, 08:27:38 AM
Indeed, one of the key arguments made AGAINST Scottish independence was that they wouldn't be able to stay in the EU.

Rarely has a country been so screwed over as Scotland was in that process. Boris Johnson's insistence that Scotland can't have another referendum, when the English changed the whole situation shortly afterwards, is simply ludicrous. Scotland has effectively voted twice to be in the EU, and was dragged out of it.

Cameron denied Scotland a second independence vote as will Truss/Rishi. Starmer also said he would not agree to it if in power. Johnson is simply following the government line. Pin a lot on him but not that.

I agree Brexit moves the goalposts. Scotland is entitled to a second referendum.   
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mandryka on August 16, 2022, 09:38:21 AM
The EU price cap on gas is £37 per mega watt hour.

The UK is £263.79 per mega watt hour.

A Brexit dividend for energy companies shareholders.

https://twitter.com/MrKennethClarke/status/1559536407563194368
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on August 17, 2022, 02:58:50 AM
Quote from: Mandryka on August 16, 2022, 09:38:21 AM
The EU price cap on gas is £37 per mega watt hour.

The UK is £263.79 per mega watt hour.

A Brexit dividend for energy companies shareholders.

https://twitter.com/MrKennethClarke/status/1559536407563194368

I'm sorry for Kenneth Clarke, but his claim is utter nonsense....

There is no such thing as an EU price cap. Measures are the perogative of national governments, and in fact different countries have chosen different approaches: price caps, nationalisation of energy companies, energy benefits for low incomes, etc.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on October 29, 2022, 04:01:20 AM
As recent political developments in Westminster have shown, Brexit is a gift of Brexiteers to the British people that keeps on giving. The Financial Times has recently posted this impression of the economic impact.

But what do they know? Even the Labour party now claims that you can "make Brexit work". Too scared to tell the majorities of the electorates in Wales and Engleand that they have been fooled into making a stupid decision? So instead, the electorate is fooled again - because the truth is too ugly. But not uglier than reality....

https://youtube.com/v/wO2lWmgEK1Y
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Todd on October 29, 2022, 04:34:32 AM
Quote from: Que on October 29, 2022, 04:01:20 AMToo scared to tell the majorities of the electorates in Wales and Engleand that they have been fooled into making a stupid decision?

With political developments in Italy and Sweden, the prevalence of thugs in Hungary and Poland, protests across the continent due to economic distress, a destabilizing war in the east, and generally less friendly relations with the primary security provider of the West across the continent than the UK enjoys, it may not be as unpopular a choice with all Britons as your post implies.  Sometimes people want to feel like more than economic inputs for supranational bureaucrats and corporations.  Also, typically it is not good politics to call the electorate stupid.  UK polls may show something different.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on October 29, 2022, 05:05:12 AM
Quote from: Todd on October 29, 2022, 04:34:32 AM
With political developments in Italy and Sweden, the prevalence of thugs in Hungary and Poland, protests across the continent due to economic distress, a destabilizing war in the east, and generally less friendly relations with the primary security provider of the West across the continent than the UK enjoys, it may not be as unpopular a choice with all Britons as your post implies.  Sometimes people want to feel like more than economic inputs for supranational bureaucrats and corporations.  Also, typically it is not good politics to call the electorate stupid.  UK polls may show something different.

Not calling the electorate stupid is clever politics, absolutely. At least in the short term.
You suggest a larger seperation from political developments elsewhere than is warranted. And on the the flipside the UK has less influence on the handling of those developments. The amount of bureaucracy and the influence of international corporations in the UK has clearly grown instead of decreased. And the "special relationship" with the "primary security provider of the West" aka the US has, despite high expectations, not improved or intensified at all. Rather the opposite.

From a economical and geopolitical perspective Brexit has made the UK less significant, it's as simple as that.
For the US, the UK was a usefull "bridge" to the EU - a major member state that was a natural, like minded ally. Not anymore.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Todd on October 29, 2022, 05:52:31 AM
Quote from: Que on October 29, 2022, 05:05:12 AMNot calling the electorate stupid is clever politics, absolutely. At least in the short term.

Incorrect.  It's good politics in all places at all times in democracies.


Quote from: Que on October 29, 2022, 05:05:12 AMRather the opposite.

Incorrect.  The AUKUS deal shows that the US and UK still work together more closely than the US and Europe more broadly.  The special status afforded all English speaking (white majority) countries in Five Eyes also demonstrates the hierarchy of security relationships globally. 


Quote from: Que on October 29, 2022, 05:05:12 AMFrom a economical and geopolitical perspective Brexit has made the UK less significant, it's as simple as that.  For the US, the UK was a usefull "bridge" to the EU - a major member state that was a natural, like minded ally. Not anymore.

Partly correct, partly incorrect.  First, nothing as significant as the partial dismemberment of a supranational organization results in simple anything.  Second, the idea that the UK acted as a bridge to Europe outside of perhaps The City is more or less false, and ultimately not relevant.  As the current political and economic crisis in Europe shows, the dollar has become more important and central since Brexit, not less, and US security is what safeguards the continent.  European leaders, elected or appointed (eg, in the ECB) are acting with a degree of obedience exceeding that of the Suez crisis.  The UK is less important globally than it was during the Blair years or before, but the only European powers of comparable or greater significance are Germany, France, and Russia - the same as before the establishment of the EU.  The EU strives for global significance via soft power and regulation.  The former always falls flat and the latter is setting the EU on a collision course with China and the US separately.   
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Florestan on October 29, 2022, 08:37:59 AM
Given that all online English dictionaries I consulted defined thug as a brutal, violent, even downright criminal person, I fail to see any prevalence of such people in the politics of either Hungary or Poland.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Todd on October 29, 2022, 09:28:22 AM
The European right is innatedly thuggish.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on October 30, 2022, 05:27:01 AM
Quote from: Todd on October 29, 2022, 09:28:22 AM
The European right is innatedly thuggish.

Not half as thuggish as the American right.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Todd on October 30, 2022, 08:03:49 AM
Quote from: Irons on October 30, 2022, 05:27:01 AM
Not half as thuggish as the American right.

How do you quantify this, body count?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on October 31, 2022, 12:21:24 AM
Quote from: Todd on October 30, 2022, 08:03:49 AM
How do you quantify this, body count?

Parliament hasn't been stormed, not in my lifetime at least.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Todd on October 31, 2022, 04:25:04 AM
Quote from: Irons on October 31, 2022, 12:21:24 AM
Parliament hasn't been stormed, not in my lifetime at least.

The UK is Europe?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on October 31, 2022, 09:27:52 AM
Quote from: Todd on October 31, 2022, 04:25:04 AM
The UK is Europe?

In not is. Being pedantic, no right-wing mob has attacked and trashed a European government building.

The recent shocking violent attack on the husband of Nancy Pelosi is another example of  dangerous right-wing extremism.
   
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Todd on October 31, 2022, 09:42:54 AM
Quote from: Irons on October 31, 2022, 09:27:52 AM
In not is. Being pedantic, no right-wing mob has attacked and trashed a European government building.

The recent shocking violent attack on the husband of Nancy Pelosi is another example of  dangerous right-wing extremism.

There is much consternation about electoral successes of the right in various European countries.  They have not had to attack and trash European government buildings since they are taking them over.  Also, I happen to live in the suburbs of a city where left wing protestors attacked government buildings, even setting fire to some.  But no biggie.

As to the second item, the attack on Pelosi appears to have been conducted by a person whose wife stated he had/has mental health issues, and he once thought he was Jesus.  People will of course conflate that with right wing extremism.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on November 01, 2022, 01:38:15 AM
Quote from: Todd on October 31, 2022, 09:42:54 AM
There is much consternation about electoral successes of the right in various European countries.  They have not had to attack and trash European government buildings since they are taking them over.  Also, I happen to live in the suburbs of a city where left wing protestors attacked government buildings, even setting fire to some.  But no biggie.

As to the second item, the attack on Pelosi appears to have been conducted by a person whose wife stated he had/has mental health issues, and he once thought he was Jesus.  People will of course conflate that with right wing extremism.

Perhaps I'm mistaken but I worry of the power of the right in America. What happens there affects us all. Hopefully scaremongering but an American (a college professor but didn't catch his name) was speaking on the radio last Saturday. He claims the next election is a tinderbox. If Democrats win the extremist wing of the Republican party will claim the election rigged and all hell let loose.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on November 01, 2022, 01:48:05 AM
Quote from: Irons on November 01, 2022, 01:38:15 AM
Perhaps I'm mistaken but I worry of the power of the right in America. What happens there affects us all. Hopefully scaremongering but an American (a college professor but didn't catch his name) was speaking on the radio last Saturday. He claims the next election is a tinderbox. If Democrats win the extremist wing of the Republican party will claim the election rigged and all hell let loose.
I hope and pray not!

PD
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Jo498 on November 01, 2022, 02:00:42 AM
Quote from: Todd on October 31, 2022, 09:42:54 AM
There is much consternation about electoral successes of the right in various European countries.  They have not had to attack and trash European government buildings since they are taking them over.  Also, I happen to live in the suburbs of a city where left wing protestors attacked government buildings, even setting fire to some.  But no biggie.
You are usually one of the first to (correctly) point out when people make bold claims about a country an ocean apart.
If you knew anything about many of the European "Right" (e.g. Meloni, the other Italians, the Swedes, the "Alternative" in Germany etc.) you would realize that they are not far right, i.e. they have some cranks among them and some with a shady past but mostly their positions are what was utterly mainstream conservative about 15-20 years ago and utterly mainstream full stop (i.e. shared by ~95% of society/parties except for some fringe groups) about 30-35 years ago. (E.g. cranky fascist ideas like that control of borders and migration is among the core tasks of a national state and that there is something like a normal family with a female, a male and a few children they usually begot together.) They can only appear "right" after 20 years of left-"liberal" globalism that brands any deviation from their gospel as crazy rightwing "protofascist" etc.

And of course they will become more powerful. We have decades of EU bureaucracy transferring wealth away, we had about 7 years of "immigration crisis", 2 years of the pharma coup of the millenium and now the European economy is being destroyed for good because of the Ukraine war. The surprising thing is not that alternative parties from the right (or sometimes left) gain, the surprising thing is that in many countries people still stick to the utterly corrupt and dysfunctional parties and "elites" who got them into this mess.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Florestan on November 01, 2022, 02:48:13 AM
Quote from: Jo498 on November 01, 2022, 02:00:42 AM
You are usually one of the first to (correctly) point out when people make bold claims about a country an ocean apart.
If you knew anything about many of the European "Right" (e.g. Meloni, the other Italians, the Swedes, the "Alternative" in Germany etc.) you would realize that they are not far right, i.e. they have some cranks among them and some with a shady past but mostly their positions are what was utterly mainstream conservative about 15-20 years ago and utterly mainstream full stop (i.e. shared by ~95% of society/parties except for some fringe groups) about 30-35 years ago. (E.g. cranky fascist ideas like that control of borders and migration is among the core tasks of a national state and that there is something like a normal family with a female, a male and a few children they usually begot together.) They can only appear "right" after 20 years of left-"liberal" globalism that brands any deviation from their gospel as crazy rightwing "protofascist" etc.

And of course they will become more powerful. We have decades of EU bureaucracy transferring wealth away, we had about 7 years of "immigration crisis", 2 years of the pharma coup of the millenium and now the European economy is being destroyed for good because of the Ukraine war. The surprising thing is not that alternative parties from the right (or sometimes left) gain, the surprising thing is that in many countries people still stick to the utterly corrupt and dysfunctional parties and "elites" who got them into this mess.

Amen, brother!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: vandermolen on November 01, 2022, 03:09:04 AM
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on November 01, 2022, 01:48:05 AM
I hope and pray not!

PD
+1
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Todd on November 01, 2022, 05:16:08 AM
Quote from: Irons on November 01, 2022, 01:38:15 AMHe claims the next election is a tinderbox. If Democrats win the extremist wing of the Republican party will claim the election rigged and all hell let loose.

This is a midterm.  Your source is hysterical and/or dishonest.  (College professors are often the second most hysterical group of "serious" people, behind only talking heads.)  Here's some of what will happen.  Republicans will almost certainly win the House.  This is very common and happens regularly in midterms.  Pelosi will be forced from a leadership position as a result.  She may receive an ambassadorship as a consolation prize.  Kevin McCarthy will most likely become speaker.  He will push for House investigations into the Biden Administration (a standard practice), into the federal Covid response, and will play brinksmanship with the debt ceiling.  The Senate is a toss-up.  Republicans should be in a stronger position, but partly because they selected awful candidates in some races (eg, Georgia), the Democrats have a decent chance of gaining a seat or two.  The problem Democrats face is that their candidates are also often quite awful (eg, in Georgia).  The shabby state of politics can be summed up in Pennsylvania, where the Senate race pits an actual snake oil salesman against an invalid who cannot form seven-word sentences even when using a teleprompter.  (Watch the debate if you do not believe me.)  If Republicans win the Senate, the great Addison McConnell will become majority leader again and, as a staunch institutionalist and master strategist and tactician, he will push for standard Republican policies and block the Biden administration at every turn.  Republicans are on track to win 1-3 additional governorships*, along with some down ballot state offices that used to be pretty tired - specifically Secretary of State roles, or similar administrative functions that run elections - and that has some members of the press and the broader intelligentsia saying and writing hysterical things.  You may very well have heard or read the phrase "election denier" or some variant thereof in use, always against Republicans.  That's the angle.  It is bipartisan, of course; you can go back and re-read articles from 2000, from 2016, or even earlier this year in Georgia - yes, Georgia is that bad - to find examples of Democrat election denial.  Their concerns are different, though, their concerns are real, etc.  The state races will have electoral implications in 2024, which is what the hysteria is all about.

How could the US be where it's at, on the brink of electing mega-MAGA Republicans?  Well, as it turns out, my high school polisci teacher laid out an analysis of politics that is as true now as it was when I was a kid, and which was reinforced even by my uniformly (American) liberal professors in college, and it has been shown to be correct every election.  Pocketbook politics always trump all other considerations.  Inflation is high, it is real, it is pervasive, and it always costs the party in power seats.  There is a growing sense of unease about the economy generally, and that has the same effect.  Public safety is a secondary issue that can rise to primary importance, and with high crime levels in many cities and areas (Oregon, and Portland, has experienced a verifiable with the DOJ surge in crime, for instance), it also favors the law and order party, which is traditionally the Republican party.  Tertiary issues like those favored by the Democrats this cycle don't ever work as well.  Abortion, gun control, transgender rights (a newish one) are wedge issues, and they tend to mobilize party activists and be much more important in the primaries than in the general election. 

Since tertiary issues have lost traction, Democrats have switched gears to warning about the perils facing democracy itself.  The shift occurred a couple weeks ago or so, as it became clear post-Roe abortion began fading as an issue.  The threat to democracy is their closer.  It's not a strong one, partly because of its intrinsic dishonesty.  But the entire world should be prepared to read, hear, and see a lot more of this over the next two years as the US gears up for 2024. 

Note that war and foreign policy does not register as an issue in the US most of the time.  It only does during large conflicts, and it lost its overall potency after Nixon killed the draft.  Ukraine is politically irrelevant.


* Republicans may even win the governorship of Oregon for the first time in forty years.  This is because Oregon has three women running for office, one a former Democrat who will siphon off votes from the current Democrat.  The fact that Nike founder Phil Knight has publicly poured almost $5 million into the Republican and Independent candidates' campaigns has helped.  (Oregon has no contribution limits for state races.)  He has publicly stated that he will do whatever it takes to prevent Tina Kotek from taking office.  Pretty much every large Oregon-domiciled corporation has poured money into Christine Drazan's campaign.  The hatred of Kotek by centrists and conservatives is palpable.

Also, on the topic of governors, Kari Lake is a politician to watch for a glimpse into the future.  She's exactly the type of candidate that people of any political persuasion should be wary of.  She's an opportunist and not a true believer, so she's not the threat, but her background in media allows her to deftly dispatch the press and stay on message.  If someone with her polish, Kristi Noem's or Gavin Newsom's attractiveness, and Tom Cotton's or Bernie's views were to emerge, look out. 


Quote from: Jo498 on November 01, 2022, 02:00:42 AMIf you knew anything about many of the European "Right" (e.g. Meloni, the other Italians, the Swedes, the "Alternative" in Germany etc.) you would realize that they are not far right

I rely on the characterization of the European right provided by the US corporate press.  The US corporate press is always right.  See their coverage of American politics and the American right, for instance.  Prior to very accurate reporting by the very factual, non-ideological US corporate press, I had gathered that right wing political parties in Europe tended to not win absolute majorities and therefore had to engage in run of the mill parliamentary politics to form governments.  This time is different.  For real.  A global movement toward the right means that soon we will all be wearing jackboots, varying only in degrees of stylishness.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on November 01, 2022, 08:17:50 AM
Quote from: Todd on November 01, 2022, 05:16:08 AM
This is a midterm.  Your source is hysterical and/or dishonest.  (College professors are often the second most hysterical group of "serious" people, behind only talking heads.)  Here's some of what will happen.  Republicans will almost certainly win the House.  This is very common and happens regularly in midterms.  Pelosi will be forced from a leadership position as a result.  She may receive an ambassadorship as a consolation prize.  Kevin McCarthy will most likely become speaker.  He will push for House investigations into the Biden Administration (a standard practice), into the federal Covid response, and will play brinksmanship with the debt ceiling.  The Senate is a toss-up.  Republicans should be in a stronger position, but partly because they selected awful candidates in some races (eg, Georgia), the Democrats have a decent chance of gaining a seat or two.  The problem Democrats face is that their candidates are also often quite awful (eg, in Georgia).  The shabby state of politics can be summed up in Pennsylvania, where the Senate race pits an actual snake oil salesman against an invalid who cannot form seven-word sentences even when using a teleprompter.  (Watch the debate if you do not believe me.)  If Republicans win the Senate, the great Addison McConnell will become majority leader again and, as a staunch institutionalist and master strategist and tactician, he will push for standard Republican policies and block the Biden administration at every turn.  Republicans are on track to win 1-3 additional governorships*, along with some down ballot state offices that used to be pretty tired - specifically Secretary of State roles, or similar administrative functions that run elections - and that has some members of the press and the broader intelligentsia saying and writing hysterical things.  You may very well have heard or read the phrase "election denier" or some variant thereof in use, always against Republicans.  That's the angle.  It is bipartisan, of course; you can go back and re-read articles from 2000, from 2016, or even earlier this year in Georgia - yes, Georgia is that bad - to find examples of Democrat election denial.  Their concerns are different, though, their concerns are real, etc.  The state races will have electoral implications in 2024, which is what the hysteria is all about.

How could the US be where it's at, on the brink of electing mega-MAGA Republicans?  Well, as it turns out, my high school polisci teacher laid out an analysis of politics that is as true now as it was when I was a kid, and which was reinforced even by my uniformly (American) liberal professors in college, and it has been shown to be correct every election.  Pocketbook politics always trump all other considerations.  Inflation is high, it is real, it is pervasive, and it always costs the party in power seats.  There is a growing sense of unease about the economy generally, and that has the same effect.  Public safety is a secondary issue that can rise to primary importance, and with high crime levels in many cities and areas (Oregon, and Portland, has experienced a verifiable with the DOJ surge in crime, for instance), it also favors the law and order party, which is traditionally the Republican party.  Tertiary issues like those favored by the Democrats this cycle don't ever work as well.  Abortion, gun control, transgender rights (a newish one) are wedge issues, and they tend to mobilize party activists and be much more important in the primaries than in the general election. 

Since tertiary issues have lost traction, Democrats have switched gears to warning about the perils facing democracy itself.  The shift occurred a couple weeks ago or so, as it became clear post-Roe abortion began fading as an issue.  The threat to democracy is their closer.  It's not a strong one, partly because of its intrinsic dishonesty.  But the entire world should be prepared to read, hear, and see a lot more of this over the next two years as the US gears up for 2024. 

Note that war and foreign policy does not register as an issue in the US most of the time.  It only does during large conflicts, and it lost its overall potency after Nixon killed the draft.  Ukraine is politically irrelevant.


* Republicans may even win the governorship of Oregon for the first time in forty years.  This is because Oregon has three women running for office, one a former Democrat who will siphon off votes from the current Democrat.  The fact that Nike founder Phil Knight has publicly poured almost $5 million into the Republican and Independent candidates' campaigns has helped.  (Oregon has no contribution limits for state races.)  He has publicly stated that he will do whatever it takes to prevent Tina Kotek from taking office.  Pretty much every large Oregon-domiciled corporation has poured money into Christine Drazan's campaign.  The hatred of Kotek by centrists and conservatives is palpable.

Also, on the topic of governors, Kari Lake is a politician to watch for a glimpse into the future.  She's exactly the type of candidate that people of any political persuasion should be wary of.  She's an opportunist and not a true believer, so she's not the threat, but her background in media allows her to deftly dispatch the press and stay on message.  If someone with her polish, Kristi Noem's or Gavin Newsom's attractiveness, and Tom Cotton's or Bernie's views were to emerge, look out. 


I rely on the characterization of the European right provided by the US corporate press.  The US corporate press is always right.  See their coverage of American politics and the American right, for instance.  Prior to very accurate reporting by the very factual, non-ideological US corporate press, I had gathered that right wing political parties in Europe tended to not win absolute majorities and therefore had to engage in run of the mill parliamentary politics to form governments.  This time is different.  For real.  A global movement toward the right means that soon we will all be wearing jackboots, varying only in degrees of stylishness.

You obviously know far more then I do so best we leave it there.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Madiel on November 01, 2022, 12:39:28 PM
A global movement to the right, eh?

Global?

*looks at Australian election result*
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: SimonNZ on November 01, 2022, 01:30:17 PM
Quote from: Todd on November 01, 2022, 05:16:08 AM
He will push for House investigations into the Biden Administration (a standard practice)

"a standard practice"

Quote from: Todd on November 01, 2022, 05:16:08 AM
, and will play brinksmanship with the debt ceiling. 


"brinksmanship"
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: JBS on November 01, 2022, 01:37:29 PM
Quote from: SimonNZ on November 01, 2022, 01:30:17 PM
"a standard practice"

"brinksmanship"

Todd is right: McCarthy as Speaker will simply do what the GOP did under Obama when it controlled the House; investigate nothingburgers, try to use debt ceiling and budgets as blunt tools, obstruct Biden as much as they can and do as little legislating done as possible so they can make Biden look like a failure.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: SimonNZ on November 01, 2022, 02:01:32 PM
Quote from: JBS on November 01, 2022, 01:37:29 PM
Todd is right: McCarthy as Speaker will simply do what the GOP did under Obama when it controlled the House; investigate nothingburgers, try to use debt ceiling and budgets as blunt tools, obstruct Biden as much as they can and do as little legislating done as possible so they can make Biden look like a failure.

I don't doubt it. But I object to that being called merely "standard practice" instead of "highly irresponsible and potentially destructive childish performative nonsense"
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Que on November 01, 2022, 02:21:25 PM
Guys, this is a thread about Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: SimonNZ on November 01, 2022, 02:40:00 PM
Is the US politics thread perma-banned? I understand if it is, just asking.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: JBS on November 01, 2022, 07:21:32 PM
Quote from: Que on November 01, 2022, 02:21:25 PM
Guys, this is a thread about Brexit.

Given how much American RW rhetoric the Tories and UKIPists have taken over (most recent example: asylum seekers are invaders) some bleedover is bound to occur.

BTW is UKIP still a thing? Or have Farage and friends all rolled back into the Conservatives?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Irons on November 02, 2022, 12:32:34 AM
Quote from: JBS on November 01, 2022, 07:21:32 PM


BTW is UKIP still a thing? Or have Farage and friends all rolled back into the Conservatives?

Dead on the vine. Farage did have a spell on "talk" radio but that came to an end. I did hear that he suffers back pain brought about by being a passenger in a light aeroplane that crashed.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Florestan on November 02, 2022, 02:30:20 AM
Last time I heard of/saw Nigel Farage was when he interviewed Novak Djokovic in Belgrade immediately after the Australian Open scandal. I've also heard / read that he actually relocated in France but I don't know iwhether it's true.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: The new erato on November 02, 2022, 04:18:46 AM
Quote from: Irons on November 02, 2022, 12:32:34 AM
Dead on the vine. Farage did have a spell on "talk" radio but that came to an end. I did hear that he suffers back pain brought about by being a passenger in a light aeroplane that crashed.
OK, so he's accustomed to crashes.