How is the weather?

[Pohjolas Daughter]

This is very concerning. An old family friend, with whom I reestablished contact a couple of years ago, lives in New Port Richey north of Tampa.

Eek!  I have friends who have a second home on Sanibel Island.  Found out yesterday that they were on their way out of there.  I suspect that they are either back home now or will be soon.

Fingers crossed for your friend and others who live in that area.

PD

[krummholz]

Eek!  I have friends who have a second home on Sanibel Island.  Found out yesterday that they were on their way out of there.  I suspect that they are either back home now or will be soon.

Fingers crossed for your friend and others who live in that area.

PD

Thanks PD. And fingers crossed you're right about your friends.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Thanks PD. And fingers crossed you're right about your friends.

I received an email from the wife early yesterday morning and she said that they were watching and heading north before it was due, so I trust that they were able to get out of Dodge in time.  I'll try and call them soon.

PD

p.s.  I suspect that, knowing them, that they flew down there and rented a car for the short time that they were there.

[krummholz]

I received an email from the wife early yesterday morning and she said that they were watching and heading north before it was due, so I trust that they were able to get out of Dodge in time.  I'll try and call them soon.

PD

p.s.  I suspect that, knowing them, that they flew down there and rented a car for the short time that they were there.

That's good news - and if not yet, they still have time.

It seems landfall is expected near Homosassa Springs. That's only about 40 miles north of New Port Richey - and the south side of the storm is where the worst storm surge is. That would be very bad news for my friend if it comes to pass.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

That's good news - and if not yet, they still have time.

It seems landfall is expected near Homosassa Springs. That's only about 40 miles north of New Port Richey - and the south side of the storm is where the worst storm surge is. That would be very bad news for my friend if it comes to pass.

Hi Krumm.

Last I heard, they think that the worst hit area of the storm (the direct hit as it were), will be south of Tampa....then again, we'll know when we know.

My friends are back from Florida.  Not certain, but I suspect that it was on Tuesday...barely communicated with them so far.  I do know that their house on Sanibel is one of the "newer ones" (They required houses built post-1970-something-or-other so that they now need to be on stilts/pilings and be above flood level).

I'm concerned about all of the rain that Florida is supposed to get (like 3-month's worth of rain in a few days!) plus the storm surges...not to mention the winds.  Besides water/storm damage, power outages, etc., imagine how this will also impact their economy and elsewhere?  Crops, you name it (and with food prices already on the rise?).  Also, from what I recalled hearing, a lot of Florida was already rain-soaked though I can't provide any details on that.

Heard also that there's been a lot of talk about Hurricane Charley and how strong it was; one weather forecaster on CNN said that you could fit Charley into the eye of Ian!

So, have you been able to contact your friend and find out where she is hunkering down?

PD

[krummholz]

Hi Krumm.

Last I heard, they think that the worst hit area of the storm (the direct hit as it were), will be south of Tampa....then again, we'll know when we know.

My friends are back from Florida.  Not certain, but I suspect that it was on Tuesday...barely communicated with them so far.  I do know that their house on Sanibel is one of the "newer ones" (They required houses built post-1970-something-or-other so that they now need to be on stilts/pilings and be above flood level).

I'm concerned about all of the rain that Florida is supposed to get (like 3-month's worth of rain in a few days!) plus the storm surges...not to mention the winds.  Besides water/storm damage, power outages, etc., imagine how this will also impact their economy and elsewhere?  Crops, you name it (and with food prices already on the rise?).  Also, from what I recalled hearing, a lot of Florida was already rain-soaked though I can't provide any details on that.

Heard also that there's been a lot of talk about Hurricane Charley and how strong it was; one weather forecaster on CNN said that you could fit Charley into the eye of Ian!

So, have you been able to contact your friend and find out where she is hunkering down?

PD

Hi PD,

Yes, he's not planning to leave, even though the exact path of the storm is unpredictable. He's not in an evacuation zone, which is a little encouraging. But it will still be a nightmare I'm sure, with wide areas of his county flooded for days and most neighborhoods without power.

I'm concerned about the rain, and also about the possibility that the storm could wander slowly north up the coast. Anywhere it passes will then be on the south side and will likely get devastating storm surge. How bad depends on how much the storm weakens from the center being "feet dry", but it will still be a major storm in any case.

I'm glad your friends are safely back - but it looks like Sanibel Island could be one of the areas hardest hit by Ian. No question this is a monster - fingers crossed for their property, and my friend's as well.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Hi PD,

Yes, he's not planning to leave, even though the exact path of the storm is unpredictable. He's not in an evacuation zone, which is a little encouraging. But it will still be a nightmare I'm sure, with wide areas of his county flooded for days and most neighborhoods without power.

I'm concerned about the rain, and also about the possibility that the storm could wander slowly north up the coast. Anywhere it passes will then be on the south side and will likely get devastating storm surge. How bad depends on how much the storm weakens from the center being "feet dry", but it will still be a major storm in any case.

I'm glad your friends are safely back - but it looks like Sanibel Island could be one of the areas hardest hit by Ian. No question this is a monster - fingers crossed for their property, and my friend's as well.

Yeah, I saw (recently) a different radar image on the Weather Channel re Sanibel.  I'm trying to access NOAA's live radar but it won't open that page (probably too much traffic on their website right now).  Oh!  Just tried again and saw this on the left-hand side:

"NHC Storm Description:
28 Sep 2022 - 16:00 UTC ...12 PM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE... ...EYEWALL OF IAN MOVING ONSHORE AT SANIBEL AND CAPTIVA ISLANDS... As of 12:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 the center of Ian was located near 26.4, -82.5 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 937 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph."

PD

p.s.  Does your friend have a backup generator?

[SonicMan46]

Hi ALL - hope that your friends will escape substantial damage - I've been watching the Weather Channel all afternoon, common when these hurricanes head north - landfall was made around Sanibel and Captiva Islands - we've visited the Florida West coast from Tampa to Naples a half dozen times over the decades (love the area and the food); so quite upset to see the damage occurring (was planning a trip to Marco Island but cancelled with COVID) - Jim Cantore who is in Punta Gorda is predicting that Captiva Island may be split? Second pic below showing Naples where subsequent pictures of the storm surge are now covering cars. First pic the predicted course of Ian north - I'm in Piedmont North Carolina (the blue circle on the second pic) and the remnants of the storm will hit us this weekend - at the moment upcoming weather is unpredictable (but could relate what happen to us and our house when Hurricane Hugo came through Charlotte to the Triad in 1989!).  Keep safe to those who may be affected.  Dave

 

[krummholz]

Yeah, I saw (recently) a different radar image on the Weather Channel re Sanibel.  I'm trying to access NOAA's live radar but it won't open that page (probably too much traffic on their website right now).  Oh!  Just tried again and saw this on the left-hand side:

"NHC Storm Description:
28 Sep 2022 - 16:00 UTC ...12 PM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE... ...EYEWALL OF IAN MOVING ONSHORE AT SANIBEL AND CAPTIVA ISLANDS... As of 12:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 the center of Ian was located near 26.4, -82.5 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 937 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph."

PD

p.s.  Does your friend have a backup generator?

Yikes! Your friends were lucky they got out when they did... sounds like a direct hit. And those winds, 155 mph sustained, make it a strong Cat 4, almost a 5... and 937 mb is pretty low as well. Definitely a serious storm.

I'm not sure whether my friend has a backup generator, but he lives in fear of losing power so my guess is he doesn't.

[Scion7]

"The Tempest" ...

[Scion7]

These Carolinas will be getting a tad wet ...

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Hi ALL - hope that your friends will escape substantial damage - I've been watching the Weather Channel all afternoon, common when these hurricanes head north - landfall was made around Sanibel and Captiva Islands - we've visited the Florida West coast from Tampa to Naples a half dozen times over the decades (love the area and the food); so quite upset to see the damage occurring (was planning a trip to Marco Island but cancelled with COVID) - Jim Cantore who is in Punta Gorda is predicting that Captiva Island may be split? Second pic below showing Naples where subsequent pictures of the storm surge are now covering cars. First pic the predicted course of Ian north - I'm in Piedmont North Carolina (the blue circle on the second pic) and the remnants of the storm will hit us this weekend - at the moment upcoming weather is unpredictable (but could relate what happen to us and our house when Hurricane Hugo came through Charlotte to the Triad in 1989!).  Keep safe to those who may be affected.  Dave

 

Yeah, I heard that about Captiva too, but from what I could see (checking in on some different news/weather channels, etc.), it looked like they were hit with the outer bands/winds which weren't as ferocious and hopefully, the storm surges weren't as bad.  I believe that the brunt of the storm hit further south.  Sent an email to my friends this morning, but it might be too early for them to know much.

Feel for the poor folks who live in some of those other areas that really got slammed.  Last I heard, 2 million people without power and lots of flooding, etc. 

Dave, good luck this weekend.  Stay safe!

And Krumm, let us know when you hear from your friend.

PD

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Just heard that part of the Sanibel Causeway collapsed--which surprised me as earlier someone on the Weather Channel thought that it was too new and too well built and that it wouldn't be an issue at least due to this storm.   

From MSN website:

"2 a.m.: Pavement leading to Sanibel folded up like an accordion

JUST BEFORE THE SANIBEL CAUSEWAY — Under the toll plaza sign — 1/2 a mile out — McGregor Road to Sanibel Island is impassable.

The pavement is folded up like an accordion, ripped to ribbons by a powerful storm surge. Nearby, a spiral staircase was deposited in the brush next to a white pickup. The storm flung a boat trailer and other debris, too.

Sand was strewn in sheets across the pavement — sea bottom on solid land. Waves lapped at the shore, just steps away.

Two cars tried to pass out to the island about 1:30 a.m., including a group of young men hoping to reach their friend.

They had to turn around."


PD

[SonicMan46]

Yeah, I heard that about Captiva too, but from what I could see (checking in on some different news/weather channels, etc.), it looked like they were hit with the outer bands/winds which weren't as ferocious and hopefully, the storm surges weren't as bad.  I believe that the brunt of the storm hit further south.  Sent an email to my friends this morning, but it might be too early for them to know much.

Feel for the poor folks who live in some of those other areas that really got slammed.  Last I heard, 2 million people without power and lots of flooding, etc. 

Dave, good luck this weekend.  Stay safe!

And Krumm, let us know when you hear from your friend.

PD

Some information on the Sanibel Causeway HERE with pic below - thanks PD - at the moment weekend forecast for some winds (probably less than 20 MPH) and rain (1-2 inches) but hope that changes for the better - Dave

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Some information on the Sanibel Causeway HERE with pic below - thanks PD - at the moment weekend forecast for some winds (probably less than 20 MPH) and rain (1-2 inches) but hope that changes for the better - Dave

Hi, thanks for the pic.  I had found some articles and a couple of photos earlier.

I can't read the Miami article (didn't want to mess around with trying to unblock ads).  At first it sounded like it was quite close to the mainland, but rereading what I had posted above, it said a half mile out...apparently it's 3-miles long.  Did a bit more googling and see that the damage was even worse than I had initially heard.  From CNN:

—
At least three sections of the Sanibel Causeway were washed away by storm surge from Hurricane Ian, according to video from CNN affiliates WBBH and WPLG, severing the Sanibel and Captiva islands' only connection to Florida's mainland.

The videos from the causeway show two portions of the ramp to both bridges washed away, as well as a stretch of roadway that crossed an island in the middle of the causeway.

A portion of the Sanibel Causeway Bridge "was damaged/washed out," Lieutenant Gregory S. Bueno with the Public Affairs Division of Florida Highway Patrol told CNN. All lanes of the bridge are currently closed and the severity of the closure is listed as "major," according to Florida 511.   

Dave,

Unless your area is already rain-soaked, your forecast sounds great!  I know that it's no-fun (most of the time) to have a rainy weekend, but come on, count your blessings!

PD

[SonicMan46]

Hi, thanks for the pic.  I had found some articles and a couple of photos earlier.

I can't read the Miami article (didn't want to mess around with trying to unblock ads).  At first it sounded like it was quite close to the mainland, but rereading what I had posted above, it said a half mile out...apparently it's 3-miles long.  Did a bit more googling and see that the damage was even worse than I had initially heard.  From CNN:

—
At least three sections of the Sanibel Causeway were washed away by storm surge from Hurricane Ian, according to video from CNN affiliates WBBH and WPLG, severing the Sanibel and Captiva islands' only connection to Florida's mainland.

The videos from the causeway show two portions of the ramp to both bridges washed away, as well as a stretch of roadway that crossed an island in the middle of the causeway.

A portion of the Sanibel Causeway Bridge "was damaged/washed out," Lieutenant Gregory S. Bueno with the Public Affairs Division of Florida Highway Patrol told CNN. All lanes of the bridge are currently closed and the severity of the closure is listed as "major," according to Florida 511.   

Dave,

Unless your area is already rain-soaked, your forecast sounds great!  I know that it's no-fun (most of the time) to have a rainy weekend, but come on, count your blessings!

PD

Thanks for the info PD - reading some more on the storm in Florida - check HERE for those interested with some video footage; deaths have occurred but 'how many' is uncertain (I suspect people who stayed and were trapped in their homes likely at great risk?).

As for Triad North Carolina, we've had little rain recently so the ground can soak up a lot - Friday and Saturday seem to be when the remnants of the storm will reach us - winds are predicted but likely 10-25 mph at best (I hope!) and probably a couple inches of rain, but that can vary a lot around this hilly terrain area, i.e. some may get only an inch and others 6 inches or more.  Dave

[Scion7]

 

[krummholz]

Yeah, I heard that about Captiva too, but from what I could see (checking in on some different news/weather channels, etc.), it looked like they were hit with the outer bands/winds which weren't as ferocious and hopefully, the storm surges weren't as bad.  I believe that the brunt of the storm hit further south.  Sent an email to my friends this morning, but it might be too early for them to know much.

Feel for the poor folks who live in some of those other areas that really got slammed.  Last I heard, 2 million people without power and lots of flooding, etc. 

Dave, good luck this weekend.  Stay safe!

And Krumm, let us know when you hear from your friend.

PD

Hi PD,

Actually I heard from him twice last night and then this morning. He didn't even lose power, and reported only lots of rain and not much wind that he was able to hear. Said that a tree had reportedly gone down across the street, which belies the "not much wind", so said he will inspect the premises for property damage later but doesn't expect anything serious. Apparently New Port Richey dodged a bullet on this one.

Very sorry to hear about Sanibel Island and the causeway collapse... they were definitely hit hard and will likely be a declared disaster area, if they aren't already. Hope your friends can rebuild, or were lucky and were spared the worst.

K.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Yes, I'm sure that there are a lot of horrible images like that one--poor lady!

Thanks for the info PD - reading some more on the storm in Florida - check HERE for those interested with some video footage; deaths have occurred but 'how many' is uncertain (I suspect people who stayed and were trapped in their homes likely at great risk?).

As for Triad North Carolina, we've had little rain recently so the ground can soak up a lot - Friday and Saturday seem to be when the remnants of the storm will reach us - winds are predicted but likely 10-25 mph at best (I hope!) and probably a couple inches of rain, but that can vary a lot around this hilly terrain area, i.e. some may get only an inch and others 6 inches or more.  Dave

I hope that you and your neighbors don't get 6 inches all at once!

I ran across some drone footage of the causeway whilst trying to find some current photos or aerial showing what Sanibel looks like after Ian.  The footage is pretty sobering:

https://www.nbcnews.com/video/drone-footage-shows-hurricane-ian-s-damage-to-sanibel-causeway-149517381630

Hi PD,

Actually I heard from him twice last night and then this morning. He didn't even lose power, and reported only lots of rain and not much wind that he was able to hear. Said that a tree had reportedly gone down across the street, which belies the "not much wind", so said he will inspect the premises for property damage later but doesn't expect anything serious. Apparently New Port Richey dodged a bullet on this one.

Very sorry to hear about Sanibel Island and the causeway collapse... they were definitely hit hard and will likely be a declared disaster area, if they aren't already. Hope your friends can rebuild, or were lucky and were spared the worst.

K.

Glad to hear that your friend is o.k. and it sounds like his home is too?  And, thanks.  I hope that they were high enough off of the ground and that no trees fell on their house, etc.  The husband did express concerns about mold damage.   

Don't know when/how my friends will find out how their home is--and the neighbors and friends that they've made who live down there.  Apparently there are ferries that go to Sanibel, but I expect they won't be running again for a while--or maybe just helping take emergency workers there and back?  No idea really--just guesses here.  In theory my friends could fly down there at some point in time and check things out.

PD

[Spotted Horses]

I have a cousin who lives in Naples, Florida. Not directly in the path of the hurricane, but in the zone where a large storm surge is reported. He stopped posting on Facebook, so I assume his power is out.