GMG Classical Music Forum

Quote from: greg on March 12, 2020, 07:44:49 PM
I just wanna work from home next week so I can play video games most of the day. Would be a blessing in disguise.

Quote from: Que on March 12, 2020, 08:11:25 PM
Oh, you think the whole thing will be done in a week's time? ::)
Not in a week, not in a month, and probably not not even in year's time...
This virus is here to stay. Normality will only be restored when the larger part of the world population has developed a certain level of immune response, either through recovery after infection or through inocculation with a vaccine.
Estimations are that during this "first wave" of the epidemic 40-70% of the world population will get infected.

Q

Quote from: epicous on March 12, 2020, 09:14:42 PM
Was this virus created in laboratories?

Quote from: epicous on March 12, 2020, 09:14:42 PM
Was this virus created in laboratories?

Quote from: vandermolen on March 12, 2020, 10:43:00 PM
The UK governments is facing criticism for not going further, like the French or Irish for example, but I'm not sure that they are wrong and they seem to be following the advice of medical experts.

Quote from: Mandryka on March 13, 2020, 01:22:33 AM
What I can't find anywhere is any details of the model that the British government is using, so that I can understand their response. Surely this must be in the public domain.

I haven't checked, but ditto for the (opposed?) model that the French government is using.

Que -- is there a united EC approach to this, a set of policies which give guidelines to all EU countries about (for example) when to close schools, restrict travel etc? Or is each country using a different model and following different objectives?

Quote from: vandermolen on March 13, 2020, 01:27:47 AM
Interesting. I'm not sure what, if any, model they are following. I think they are just going by the advice of the Govt's Chief Medical Officer. The News today say that the majority of the people need to get the virus in order to build up 'herd immunity' otherwise it will keep coming back every year. Not a nice thought though.

Quote from: Jo498 on March 13, 2020, 01:32:49 AM
A federal state like Germany has trouble getting 16 states and the federal goverment to take the same or similar measures, so I am pretty sure the EU will not be able to streamline measures and reactions.

Quote from: Jo498 on March 13, 2020, 01:32:49 AM
A federal state like Germany has trouble getting 16 states and the federal goverment to take the same or similar measures, so I am pretty sure the EU will not be able to streamline measures and reactions.

Quote from: epicous on March 12, 2020, 09:14:42 PM
Was this virus created in laboratories?

Quote from: epicous on March 12, 2020, 09:14:42 PM
Was this virus created in laboratories?

Quote from: 71 dB on March 13, 2020, 03:11:40 AM
To my understanding the cause of this outbreak was inadequate hygieny regulations regarding live animal markets in China. Different animals are kept above each other in cages so that the animals below other animals are exposed to the feaces and viruses are transmitted. If China doesn't fix this, the World can expect a new pandemic every 10 years or so...  :-X

Quote from: drogulus on March 13, 2020, 07:34:09 AM
     (https://img.thedailybeast.com/image/upload/c_crop,d_placeholder_euli9k,h_1545,w_2748,x_0,y_0/dpr_1.5/c_limit,w_1044/fl_lossy,q_auto/v1584108728/RTS35U8C_vjhsrh)

   

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 13, 2020, 05:07:19 AM
No, but certain conspiracy theorists are fond to think so.

Quote from: Gurn Blanston on March 13, 2020, 07:51:34 AM
Wouldn't THAT be cool? :)

8)

Quote from: vandermolen on March 12, 2020, 10:43:00 PM
I agree with Simon NZ although a friend contacted me yesterday pointing out that the American author Dean Koontz's novel 'The Eyes of Darkness' (1981) features a global pandemic breaking out in 2020 as a consequence of a biological weapon called 'Wuhan-400'!

https://www.india.com/lifestyle/did-authors-dean-koontz-and-sylvia-browne-really-predict-coronavirus-outbreak-back-in-1981-and-2008-3967957/

My school is staying open for now and lots of the children live abroad anyway. All the overseas school trips are cancelled. The UK governments is facing criticism for not going further, like the French or Irish for example, but I'm not sure that they are wrong and they seem to be following the advice of medical experts.

I was due to travel to Coventry today for a History examiner's meeting but that has been cancelled which I think is sensible.

Hope everyone here (GMG forum not just UK) keeps safe and well.

Quote from: André on March 13, 2020, 09:39:40 AM
Epidemic outbreaks have long fascinated writers and Hollywood. Not to mention all the stories about Jews poisoning eells during the Great Plague, etc.

Quote from: 71 dB on March 13, 2020, 03:11:40 AM
To my understanding the cause of this outbreak was inadequate hygieny regulations regarding live animal markets in China. Different animals are kept above each other in cages so that the animals below other animals are exposed to the feaces and viruses are transmitted. If China doesn't fix this, the World can expect a new pandemic every 10 years or so...  :-X

Quote from: André on March 13, 2020, 09:39:40 AM
Epidemic outbreaks have long fascinated writers and Hollywood. Not to mention all the stories about Jews poisoning wells during the Great Plague, etc.

Koontz wrote his novel in 1981 and set the action (epidemic outbreak) in Gorki, Russia - the archenemy and bogeyman of the USA in the Reagan years. The novel was reedited in 1989 and the plot moved to Wuhan, China (Russia was fast going down and no longer as scary a global threat in the Gorbachev years). Why Wuhan? Divination? ESP? Fluke? In any case, the epidemic described by Koontz didn't look like what we have on our hands today. People died within 24 hours, etc.

To connect the dots (the missing link of the internet story), a 2008 page from a psychic's predictions was added to the story. This time the epidemic's description and timeline correspond to 2020 coronavirus.

IOW, to lend credence to the social media story, one has to believe in a book whose story is about another epidemic set in a different place, then transplanted to Wuhan, on top of adding a psychic's prediction. Pour in a few drops of toad drooling and let cook on a full moon night for best results.  >:D


https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-coronavirus-koontz-book/partly-false-claima-1981-book-predicted-the-coronavirus-2019-outbreak-idUSKCN20M19I (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-coronavirus-koontz-book/partly-false-claima-1981-book-predicted-the-coronavirus-2019-outbreak-idUSKCN20M19I)

Edited for typo

Quote from: Holden on March 13, 2020, 02:28:54 PM
[...]
So are we shutting down the world just because we have come across something new? The death toll from the 'influenza season' in Australia last year was about the average - around 1300 people. Covid 19 has been here for two months now and we stand at 3. Or, is there something about this virus that our governments are not telling us?

Quote from: Holden on March 13, 2020, 02:28:54 PM
The effect here in Australia is minimal with three reported deaths (all over 80 years old) and sporadic cases being detected around the country. However, big events like the F1 Grand Prix have been cancelled and sports matches are being played in front of empty stadiums. The State premiers met with the PM and the country's Chief Medical Officer yesterday and while a ban has been put in place on gatherings of more than 500 (where did they get that figure from?) people, Scott Morrison has urged people to go on with their lives as normal and I agree with him.

That said, the Covid 19 'pandemic' has made me think of a number of questions that nobody has asked so far.

The first is one that might horrify many of you. Coronavirus, unless it's severe, is self reporting. If you've got it and the symptoms are minor (like a mild cold or just feeling a bit down) how many of you would actually go to get it checked out? I would say less than 10% because "why bother the doctor with something that's probably not Covid19 but just a bit of a cold". (Some of you don't have anywhere to go anyway). If this surmise is correct then there are probably a hell of a lot of people walking around with this virus who don't know it. Had a bit of a scratchy throat lately? Feeling physically a bit down but able to carry on? Is it coronavirus? It might be, who knows?

The second one sums up human nature. Your workmate has been diagnosed with it and you've been asked to self-isolate for 14 days. OK, you have a partner and three children. Do they self isolate as well? I suspect not.

What is the actual risk of death from Covid 19 and what are the implications? The graph below shows that the most vulnerable are those in 70+ age group who have an overall 24% chance (1 in 4) of dying if (and IF is the operative word) they contract the virus.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

There are other graphs involving comorbidity etc from this site. But the way I read those graphs is that it just looks like another flu season and not as serious as ones we've had in the past. The big difference this time around is that young children (comorbidity aside) have not been affected.

So are we shutting down the world just because we have come across something new? The death toll from the 'influenza season' in Australia last year was about the average - around 1300 people. Covid 19 has been here for two months now and we stand at 3. Or, is there something about this virus that our governments are not telling us?

Quote from: Roy Bland on March 13, 2020, 04:32:41 PM
A warning in a language similar to English
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYxLSpUZEuU

Quote from: Holden on March 13, 2020, 02:28:54 PM

The second one sums up human nature. Your workmate has been diagnosed with it and you've been asked to self-isolate for 14 days. OK, you have a partner and three children. Do they self isolate as well? I suspect not.

Quote from: Holden on March 13, 2020, 02:28:54 PM

What is the actual risk of death from Covid 19 and what are the implications?

Quote from: Holden on March 13, 2020, 02:28:54 PM
a ban has been put in place on gatherings of more than 500 (where did they get that figure from?)

QuoteHad a bit of a scratchy throat lately? Feeling physically a bit down but able to carry on?

Quote from: André on March 14, 2020, 06:12:51 AM
The Great TP Run...

(https://i.imgflip.com/3shleu.jpg)

(https://i.imgflip.com/3sdpty.jpg)

Quote from: Holden on March 13, 2020, 02:28:54 PM
The effect here in Australia is minimal with three reported deaths (all over 80 years old) and sporadic cases being detected around the country. However, big events like the F1 Grand Prix have been cancelled and sports matches are being played in front of empty stadiums. The State premiers met with the PM and the country's Chief Medical Officer yesterday and while a ban has been put in place on gatherings of more than 500 (where did they get that figure from?) people, Scott Morrison has urged people to go on with their lives as normal and I agree with him.

That said, the Covid 19 'pandemic' has made me think of a number of questions that nobody has asked so far.

The first is one that might horrify many of you. Coronavirus, unless it's severe, is self reporting. If you've got it and the symptoms are minor (like a mild cold or just feeling a bit down) how many of you would actually go to get it checked out? I would say less than 10% because "why bother the doctor with something that's probably not Covid19 but just a bit of a cold". (Some of you don't have anywhere to go anyway). If this surmise is correct then there are probably a hell of a lot of people walking around with this virus who don't know it. Had a bit of a scratchy throat lately? Feeling physically a bit down but able to carry on? Is it coronavirus? It might be, who knows?

The second one sums up human nature. Your workmate has been diagnosed with it and you've been asked to self-isolate for 14 days. OK, you have a partner and three children. Do they self isolate as well? I suspect not.

What is the actual risk of death from Covid 19 and what are the implications? The graph below shows that the most vulnerable are those in 70+ age group who have an overall 24% chance (1 in 4) of dying if (and IF is the operative word) they contract the virus.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

There are other graphs involving comorbidity etc from this site. But the way I read those graphs is that it just looks like another flu season and not as serious as ones we've had in the past. The big difference this time around is that young children (comorbidity aside) have not been affected.

So are we shutting down the world just because we have come across something new? The death toll from the 'influenza season' in Australia last year was about the average - around 1300 people. Covid 19 has been here for two months now and we stand at 3. Or, is there something about this virus that our governments are not telling us?

Quote from: Mirror Image on March 13, 2020, 08:42:26 PM
I think like a lot of these outbreaks, the most important thing is to take personal precautions. In this case, wash your hands regularly (I hope people here and elsewhere do this anyway), practice good hygiene, and always know your surroundings and, more importantly, the people in those surroundings. I think there has been one case reported where I live, but by the way the media makes it sound, you'd think this was the apocalypse. I work in retail and I've never seen so many people scrambling to buy toilet paper, hand sanitizers, antibacterial wipes, water, bread, etc. Personally, I'm not going to live my life in fear and I think one of the worst things people can do in this kind of situation is to panic. This only escalates the problem. The perfect scenario would be for people just to stay at home, but this isn't going to happen.

Quote from: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 07:34:35 AM
Shortly thereafter I've heard on a Romanian TV station that the European Center for Disease Prevention stated that the Covid-19's survival time on solid surfaces is still unknown.

Quote from: (: premont :) on March 14, 2020, 08:32:05 AM
Virus can remain viable "in aerosols up to 3 hours, up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel" a Princeton study awaiting peer review has found https://t.co/8AEaFd230k

Quote from: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 08:36:21 AM
Thanks, really helpful. Does the study also mention how these data compare to other coronaviruses? I ask because it's really important to put things in perspective (see the "10 times more deadly than the seasonal flu" thing).

Quote from: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 07:34:35 AM
Why is it that the mass media focus almost exclusively on the negatives and they almost never stress the positives?

"The mortality rate is 10 times higher than that of the seasonal flu". True, but given that the latter is 0.1% it follows that the former is 1%, which means that he overwhelming majority of people who got Covid-19 will survive alright.

Related: a flu --- any flu, be it seasonal or Covid-19 --- kills only people with previous and serious medical conditions. A person who has no, or minor medical conditions, will most likely survive the infection.

"There is no known antidote to Covid-19". Which begs the question how did all the people who are now cured of it survived? Either they did nothing at all (in which case their natural immunity was strong enough to annihilate the virus) or they were treated with whatever medication is known as being effective against other types of coronaviruses (in which case we must assume that it work against Covid-19 as well)

Just earlier today on Euronews I've heard a Hong Kong virusologist stating that this damn Covid-19 is a virus sharing many, if not most, of his features with many other coronaviruses which have been studied, so the most probable reason for its appearance is natural evolution rather than leak from a laboratory. While not completely excluding the latter hypothesis, I tend to agree with him. So far, so good. Shortly thereafter I've heard on a Romanian TV station that the European Center for Disease Prevention stated that the Covid-19's survival time on solid surfaces is still unknown. Good grief! (1) If Covid-19 shares many features with many other coronaviruses which have been studied, then for my engineer mind it follows logically that its survival time on solid surfaces must be about the same time as that of the others, give or take; (2) in AD 2020 is it that hard to establish how long a virus which people can be tested against survives on solid surfaces?

The same virusologist mentioned above stated that it's wrong to be optimistic about the Covid-19 pandemic subsiding by April due to warming, because in the Southern hemsphere it's going to be colder (coming winter) and the cycle will go on. While this is true in abstract, considering that right now the vast, overwhelming majority of the infections are reported in the Northern hemisphere, the coming summer will most likely subside the Northern hemisphere pandemic. To my engineer mind it's highly unlikely that beyond April or May the Southern hemisphere will experience the same level of emergency as the Northern hemisphere right now.

Last but not least, let's put the whole thing in a philosophical, metaphysical or religious perspective. 100% of those who get Covid-19 will die: a (very) few of them because it will aggravate their preexisting medical conditions, the vast majority of them because sooner or later, for one reason or another different from Covid-19, all people die. 100% of those who will not get Covid-19 will die, because sooner or later, for one reason or another different from Covid-19, all people die.

Carpe diem!

I wish all GMGers and all their loved ones and acquaintances stay safe and healthy!

Quote from: Mandryka on March 14, 2020, 09:57:34 AM
the problem is that there will be a lot of people with serious complications.

Quote
This is a problem because the health systems of the world can't take care of them all, and so some of them, many of them, will die.

Quote from: André on March 14, 2020, 10:19:55 AM
In Belgium, bars and cafés closed to business for 3 weeks as of yesterday night. But not before a last pint !

Belgians understand carpe diem in their own way. Yesterday evening in Brussels, police had to remove revellers from bars well past midnight...

(https://moustique.cdnartwhere.eu/sites/default/files/vdd_lockdown-6.jpg)

Quote from: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 08:36:21 AMit's really important to put things in perspective

Quote from: Mandryka on March 14, 2020, 09:57:34 AM
the problem is that there will be a lot of people with serious complications. This is a problem because the health systems of the world can't take care of them all, and so some of them, many of them, will die.

Quote from: Rinaldo on March 14, 2020, 11:44:49 AM
Yes. (https://twitter.com/NaomiOhReally/status/1238868163208634371)

Quote from: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 14, 2020, 11:41:43 AM
I'm beginning to see little signs of civilizational slippage, i.e. things that indicate people are dealing with an unprecedented crisis. My local library just closed for the duration, and today they sent me an overdue notice, indicating that the items I checked out are overdue. The due date is listed as 1962. This has never happened to me before.

I wondered how large a fine I would have to pay, but their website contained this notice:

"You may have received a message saying that your items are overdue...by about 58 years. Obviously, this is not correct (unless you have invented time travel, in which case: we have some questions). We think that the issue occurred when we were resetting due dates. We've put in a ticket with our tech company."

Quote from: ritter on March 14, 2020, 09:46:27 AM
Caro Gio, it's good to hear from you, and I hope that you and those dear to you are well. I fully identify with your message, as we in Spain (and particularly in Madrid) are seeing what you describe now unfolding right before our eyes. We are being asked by the authorities to stay in our homes, and only go out to buy food or other essentials. Fortunately, it seems that the vast majority of the population is heeding this advice (belatedly, perhaps, as until only two nights ago people were still going to bars, restaurants and outdoor terraces to have a drink as if nothing were happening). Now the city is deserted (all shops—except food, chemists and some other exceptions—, restaurants, bars, gyms, theatre, museums, everything in fact, are closed for at least two weeks). Fortunately, there is no shortage of foodstuffs in the shops, and the general atmosphere is one of quiet, disciplined resignation. Those who can (like me) work from home, and avoid going out unless absolutely necessary. More stringent measures (complete lockdown?) are expected to be announced later today by the government. To a great extent, we have learned from what has happened in Italy (even if it has taken us probably one week too long to learn the lesson).

Ti auguro molto incoraggiamento, e ti mando un grande abbraccio.

Quote from: Irons on March 14, 2020, 11:47:18 AM
Governments across the world are advised by experts and are taking drastic measures, so yes I am taking this very seriously indeed. It is predicted that in the UK 80% of the population will be infected,

Quotethe symptoms for some will be so mild that they will not even realise they have it,

Quote1% are predicted to die,

Quoteof course for those aged over 65 the % of deaths shoots up.

Quote
The affect on stock markets and businesses, large and small, worldwide is catastrophic.

Quote from: GioCar on March 14, 2020, 11:56:14 AM
Now I go celebrating my wedding anniversary (22 years) with a romantic dinner al home with my wife. We'll have "orata alla ligure" (see bream ligurian style) with olives, pine seeds, thyme, olive oil, garlic and potatoes  :)

Quote from: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 11:50:46 AM
Twitter is not my thing. Can you summarize it, please?

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 14, 2020, 11:52:27 AM
Hah! Book to the Future!

Quote from: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 11:28:03 AM
Wise guys and chicks, those Belgians! If we're going to die, and we're all going to die, then at least let's die happy and cheerful.  :D

Seriously now, I'm all for obeying strictly the rules and regulations the authorities impose, they are for our own good. But I'm also all against inducing panic and hysteria,

I'm willing to take a bet: past April (May at most) the whole damn thing will be over in Europe.
[...]

Quote from: Marc on March 14, 2020, 01:55:24 PM
old people dying in hospitals

Quote from: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 01:59:11 PM
Unheard of!  ;D

Quote from: André on March 14, 2020, 12:50:14 PM
« Bergamo newspaper obituary from February 9: 1 page
Same newspaper's obituary from March 13: 10 pages.
A simple flu. Thanks. »

Quote from: (: premont :) on March 14, 2020, 08:32:05 AM
Virus can remain viable "in aerosols up to 3 hours, up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel" a Princeton study awaiting peer review has found https://t.co/8AEaFd230k

Quote from: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 01:59:11 PM
Unheard of!  ;D

Quote from: SimonNZ on March 14, 2020, 02:02:40 PM
Yeah, "fuck the doomed", as Ayn Rand might say.

Quote from: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 02:04:15 PM
10 pages, really? Please give the source.

Quote from: Marc on March 14, 2020, 02:07:32 PM
let's stop reacting to each other's posts, unless it's about music.

Quote from: SimonNZ on March 14, 2020, 02:10:35 PM
you're an apologist for a Trump narrative

Quote from: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 02:09:04 PM. If you had cancer, or pneumonia, or diabetes or any other life-threatening condition, the probability that you'll die from seasonal flue is not much less than that of dying from Covid-19.

Quote from: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 14, 2020, 11:41:43 AM
I'm beginning to see little signs of civilizational slippage, i.e. things that indicate people are dealing with an unprecedented crisis. My local library just closed for the duration, and today they sent me an overdue notice, indicating that the items I checked out are overdue. The due date is listed as 1962. This has never happened to me before.

I wondered how large a fine I would have to pay, but their website contained this notice:

"You may have received a message saying that your items are overdue...by about 58 years. Obviously, this is not correct (unless you have invented time travel, in which case: we have some questions). We think that the issue occurred when we were resetting due dates. We've put in a ticket with our tech company."

Quote from: (: premont :) on March 14, 2020, 02:20:02 PM
This is an unsubstantiated claim on you part.

Quote from: Irons on March 14, 2020, 11:47:18 AM
Governments across the world are advised by experts and are taking drastic measures, so yes I am taking this very seriously indeed. It is predicted that in the UK 80% of the population will be infected, the symptoms for some will be so mild that they will not even realise they have it, however, 1% are predicted to die, and of course for those aged over 65 the % of deaths shoots up. The affect on stock markets and businesses, large and small, worldwide is catastrophic.

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 14, 2020, 11:52:27 AM
Hah! Book to the Future!

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 14, 2020, 02:36:58 PM
Thank you so much for making me laugh!  I really needed that.   :)  My local library is closed for a while...who knows for exactly how long....lots of other public places including schools closed too.  I suspect that there will be a lot of "play it by ear" as far as the authorities goes.  I wish that we had a national policy to direct things.  Rather than a town-by-town or (better) emanating from the state level.  I'm, I think, lucky in that it seems that our town is being more on the proactive side.  It's still hard though as decisions are being made at different levels depending upon who has the authority to make them.

PD

Quote from: SimonNZ on March 14, 2020, 02:31:58 PM
.they're just the old and sick

Quote from: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 02:56:53 PM
I'm sorry to state it but the old and sick are going to die much earlier than the young and healthy --- and I'm greatly puzzled that anyone can be morally opposed to a mere biological fact.

Quote from: SimonNZ on March 14, 2020, 02:31:58 PM
[...]
But, meh, they're just the old and sick, so fuck 'em.

Quote from: Holden on March 14, 2020, 03:27:38 PM
[...]
So what can we do other than stockpile goods we will probably take years to consume? How about looking after those who are most likely to be affected by this - our senior citizens. Put a plan into place to minimise the risk for them. Put a plan in place to make sure that they get the best possible protection. This alone should help reduce eventual fatalities.

Quote
As an aside, I was in Aldi yesterday and noticed that frozen foods are the next thing that people are stockpiling. Now a freezer can only hold so much and I wonder if Harvey Norman's are witnessing panic buying in their white goods section. :D

Quote from: Holden on March 14, 2020, 03:27:38 PM
In another episode from "Dumb and Dumber" I see that the NZ Prime Minister has effectively closed the country's borders to everyone except Pacific Islanders.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120279430/coronavirus-prime-minister-updates-nz-on-covid19-outbreak

Sounds good, but it's not. For a start, the horse has already bolted so what's the point of closing the stable door? While NZ has recorded six confirmed cases of the virus you can safely assume that there are many more. This is 'knee jerk' of the highest order.

Also, why are Pasifika exempt? Are the immune to the disease? It's the only reason I can think of. The fact is that Fiji, Samoa, Rarotonga, etc, have all had many international visitors over the last couple of months leaving the strong possibility that some of their citizens are infected as well.

As I said in a previous post, at least our government here in OZ is encouraging us to carry on as normally as possible but the whole affair reminds me of "Chicken Licken"

So what can we do other than stockpile goods we will probably take years to consume? How about looking after those who are most likely to be affected by this - our senior citizens. Put a plan into place to minimise the risk for them. Put a plan in place to make sure that they get the best possible protection. This alone should help reduce eventual fatalities.

As an aside, I was in Aldi yesterday and noticed that frozen foods are the next thing that people are stockpiling. Now a freezer can only hold so much and I wonder if Harvey Norman's are witnessing panic buying in their white goods section. :D

Quote from: SimonNZ on March 14, 2020, 03:44:17 PM
Did you even read the text of the article you linked to?

Because it answers all of the questions you just asked and contradicts your conclusions.

Quote from: Marc on March 14, 2020, 04:04:49 PM
I tried to open the link and read the article, but my virus software closed it after 10 seconds and said that a virus attack was blocked. :laugh:

(No kidding though. Tried it 3 times.)

Quote from: Marc on March 14, 2020, 03:34:20 PM
That's what's been happening in most countries, I think/hope.

Yeah, when their freezers are stuffed with food they might slow down, the selfish bastards. And then indeed they will be stockpiling freezers without a doubt. Stockpiling can be addictive. Well, at least some parts of the economy are making money.

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 14, 2020, 03:21:53 PM
Coronavirus: Ten reasons why you ought not to panic (https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-ten-reasons-why-you-ought-not-to-panic-132941)

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 14, 2020, 02:48:31 PM
I've been stunned by what I've seen happen to the markets; I don't know in detail what happened elsewhere, but when Pres. Trump was talking on Friday about the new measures to be taken, it was heartening to see the market react positively (up around 700 points).  Anyone who is either close to or is retired's blood pressure surely went up!

Quote from: André on March 14, 2020, 04:26:09 PM
At the height of the epidemic electricity maintenance crews will be affected, too (why shouldn't they?). So next time there's a power outing they won't be able to repair it. All those frozen goods will go to waste...

Consequences (real, imagined and just wacky) are endless...

Quote from: SimonNZ on March 14, 2020, 04:24:38 PM
There's probably better and more info elsewhere, but here's what that one says:

Coronavirus: Everyone coming to New Zealand must isolate for 14 days, Prime Minister Ardern says

"From midnight Sunday, everyone arriving in New Zealand will have to isolate themselves for 14 days, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has announced.

The tighter border controls were announced during an update by the prime minister on New Zealand's response to the Covid-19 outbreak on Saturday afternoon. She said while it is not realistic for New Zealand to only have a handful of coronavirus cases, the changes would slow the spread of infection.

"New Zealand has today, relative to other countries, a small number of cases," Ardern said.

"We must plan and prepare for more cases. We must go hard and we must go early. We must do everything we can to protect the health of New Zealanders."

The restrictions apply to New Zealand citizens and residents as well as international visitors.

People travelling from the Pacific Islands to New Zealand will be exempt, unless they show symptoms of coronavirus.

The new measures mean New Zealand will have the strongest border restrictions in the world, apart from Israel and some Pacific Islands, which have effectively closed their borders.

As of midnight Saturday, no cruise ships will be able to dock in New Zealand until June 30.

Strict new border exit rules to the Pacific Islands will also be put in place.

Anyone with coronavirus symptoms will not be allowed to travel there and those who have been to other overseas countries will have to wait 14 days before going to the Pacific Islands.

Close or casual contacts of confirmed cases of Covid-19 will also be barred from travelling to the Pacific Islands. All travellers' temperatures will be taken before they leave for the Pacific Islands.

Travel restrictions would be reviewed in 16 days, the prime minister said.

Ardern urged New Zealanders not to travel overseas unless it was absolutely necessary.

We have significant capacity for testing, Ardern said. "It is there and available." There are enough resources for 550 people to be tested per day.

Medical practitioners would use their clinical judgement when deciding who needed to be tested, the prime minister said.

Ardern reiterated public health messages to prevent the spread of infection. "Wash your hands," she repeated three times.

People should also stay home and avoid contact with older people if they're sick and stop greeting each other with a handshake or hongi.

Finance minister Grant Robertson will announce an economic response on Tuesday.

The Government will announce guidelines on large mass events next week too.

In the meantime, people planning on hosting such gatherings should contact their local public health authority, Ardern said.

Soon after the press conference Air New Zealand said it was reviewing the impact of the "new measures announced this afternoon on its operations and will adjust its capacity accordingly. We expect to provide an update on network changes over the next few days".

It comes after a sixth case of the novel coronavirus was confirmed in Auckland.

A man in his 60s who had recently returned from the United States tested positive for the illness on Friday night.

SO WHAT ARE THE NEW RULES FOR NZ?

* Every person entering New Zealand from anywhere in the world will be required to self-isolate for 14 days, excluding the Pacific. These restrictions will all be reviewed in 16 days' time.

* The existing travel ban for China and Iran will continue

* Cruise ships banned from coming to New Zealand, until at least June 30, 2020

* Strict new health measures at the border for people departing to the Pacific

* Measures to help those in self-isolation to be announced next week

* Government will work closely with the aviation sector to encourage airlines to remain active in New Zealand, limiting the impacts on the tourism sector and exporters

* There will be a directive on mass gatherings announced early next week

The prime minister's announcement followed a Cabinet meeting in Auckland on Saturday."

Quote from: Mirror Image on March 14, 2020, 07:05:00 PM
I think people need to just stop panicking. One thing is for certain about this coronavirus scare --- there are many people (and companies) profiting off this pandemic and it certainly isn't us. I saw a large bottle of Purell hand sanitizer go for $200 on eBay. Absolute vultures.

Quote from: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 12:00:46 PM
Many happy returns! What wine will you have?

Quote from: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 02:46:42 PM
Is it really? Are you really going to tell me that the seasonal flue kills people who have no pre-existing, life-threatening condition?

Quote from: GioCar on March 14, 2020, 11:05:11 PM
Thank you! We had a Franciacorta (Bellavista) for the initial toast, and a Vermentino di Gallura (Canayli) for the rest of the dinner. Just perfect for the sea bream.

QuoteGood luck and best wishes to you all in Romania. I see you have about one hundred cases and no deaths. I do really hope it remains the same, but in case you will change your mind. Trust me.

Quote from: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 11:58:39 AM
I think the figure is greatly exaggerated.

That's valid for every seasonal flu in every country in every hemisphere.

Oh, the horror, the horror!

That is certainly true --- because, and only because, they're most likely to have pre-existing life-threatening conditions.

It could most certainly be catastrophic if mass media and governments alike will keep spreading and inducing mass panic and hysteria.

Quote from: Irons on March 15, 2020, 04:46:57 AM
As long as you are not one among them.Then why give a toss. ;D

Quote from: Florestan on March 15, 2020, 04:52:47 AM
My point is that a 1% mortality rate is no reason for panic.

Quote from: Florestan on March 15, 2020, 02:59:40 AMI repeat: the situation should be taken seriously and all regulations and restrictions must be obeyed unconditionally. What I'm opposed to is mass panic and hysteria.

Quote from: Florestan on March 15, 2020, 04:52:47 AM
My point is that a 1% mortality rate is no reason for panic.

Quote from: vandermolen on March 14, 2020, 04:33:45 PM
Thanks for posting this reassuring article Karl.
:)

Quote from: Florestan on March 15, 2020, 04:52:47 AM
My point is that a 1% mortality rate is no reason for panic.

In Romania there are 131 confirmed cases and no deaths until now. In the context this is good news.

Quote from: drogulus on March 15, 2020, 07:40:52 AM
     Panic, at least the way the word is commonly used, is defined by no reason for it, though that might be misleading in the case of an H-bomb exploding just above you.

     The good news about Romania is that the later the pandemic develops, the more time there is to impose limits on the exponential rise in the number of cases. Here in Massachusetts we have about 138 recorded cases at last count by the failing Boston Globe.

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 15, 2020, 07:54:04 AM
Dang "corporate media"!

Quote from: Marc on March 15, 2020, 08:25:32 AM
Is Die Welt am Sonntag also dang corporate media?

Quote from: Marc on March 15, 2020, 08:25:32 AM
Is Die Welt am Sonntag also dang corporate media?
They've just released an article in which is told that Trump is trying hard to buy a German bio-medical company (CureVac) that's been trying to develop a vaccin against the latest Corona virus. This company is a private company, but it works together with German government-related institutions. According to Die Welt, Trump wants those researches, findings and medicins exclusively for the USA. The German government wants to block the possible sale, but still, CureVac is a private company, which means that, in special occasions, they are allowed to decide on their own. Words in Berlin go that Trump is offering a billion.

For those who understand German:

https://amp.welt.de/wirtschaft/article206555143/Corona-USA-will-Zugriff-auf-deutsche-Impfstoff-Firma.html?

Quote from: Marc on March 15, 2020, 08:25:32 AM
Is Die Welt am Sonntag also dang corporate media?

Quote from: ritter on March 15, 2020, 08:40:25 AM
Perhaps we could keep Kyle out of this thread? He's present enough elsewhere on GMG.

Quote from: drogulus on March 15, 2020, 09:00:00 AM
     I think the point is that "corporate" is not the right framing for every kind of news. There is no distinctly corporate meaning to "138 cases in Massachusetts".

Quote from: drogulus on March 15, 2020, 09:00:00 AM
     I think the point is that "corporate" is not the right framing for every kind of news. There is no distinctly corporate meaning to "138 cases in Massachusetts".

Quote from: Marc on March 15, 2020, 09:01:40 AM
I was being ironic a bit, because of the 'mayhem' about the 'lying corporate media' in other Diner threads...

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 15, 2020, 09:01:08 AM
Precisamente!

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 15, 2020, 09:04:14 AM
ed anche naturalmente!

Quote from: mc ukrneal on March 15, 2020, 04:10:24 PM
An article about some of the behavior we are seeing:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/why-people-are-panic-buying-toilet-paper/ar-BB112sCl?ocid=msedgntp

Quote from: Marc on March 15, 2020, 08:25:32 AM
Is Die Welt am Sonntag also dang corporate media?
They've just released an article in which is told that Trump is trying hard to buy a German bio-medical company (CureVac) that's been trying to develop a vaccin against the latest Corona virus. This company is a private company, but it works together with German government-related institutions. According to Die Welt, Trump wants those researches, findings and medicins exclusively for the USA. The German government wants to block the possible sale, but still, CureVac is a private company, which means that, in special occasions, they are allowed to decide on their own. Words in Berlin go that Trump is offering a billion.

For those who understand German:

https://amp.welt.de/wirtschaft/article206555143/Corona-USA-will-Zugriff-auf-deutsche-Impfstoff-Firma.html?

Quote from: drogulus on March 15, 2020, 02:27:37 PM
     Mortality rate by age, based on an analysis from Hubei province figures:

Age Group — Mortality Rate

0-9 — <.01 percent
10-19 — .02 percent
20-29 — .09 percent
30-39 — .18 percent
40-49 — .40 percent
50-59 — 1.3 percent
60-69 — 4.6 percent
70-79 — 9.8 percent
80 & up — 18 percent

Quote from: drogulus on March 15, 2020, 04:31:36 PM
     The question assumes something not in evidence, that panic and not an overactive precaution gland causes people to stock up. Stocking up means fewer shopping trips and fewer occasions for catching the virus. You get as much as you can in one trip and then you stay home like any rational neurotic should do.

Quote from: (: premont :) on March 16, 2020, 02:36:03 AM
This list, which isn't corrected for other serious diseases (heart disease, chronic lung disease et.c.) and doesn't mention whether the patients have got relevant treatment or not, isn't that useful.

Quote from: Florestan on March 16, 2020, 03:45:54 AM
We don't know whether it is corrected or not or whether the patients were treated or not because drogulus did not provide the source, but imo the figures might be quite realistic. The mortality begins to rise for the 50-59 yo group, accelerates for 60-69 and explodes for 70-79. For 80 and over it's a disaster. Nothing unexpected, it's common sense that the probablity of dying from Covid-19 is much greater for older people who, by the very fact of being old, already have "other serious diseases (heart disease, chronic lung disease et.c.)".

The real problem with this list (or any other) is that it refers to cases which have been reported and confirmed. If, as doctors say, about 80% of the people who get infected develop a form with mild symptoms, or even no symptoms at all, then probably there are many cases which have not been reported and that means that the mortality rate might be smaller in reality, though I suspect that the difference is not dramatic, at least not for the older age groups which would anyway mostly fall in the other 20% (medium or severe symptoms)

Quote from: (: premont :) on March 16, 2020, 04:14:43 AM
The problem with that kind of lists is, that I e.g. (being 70+ and not completely healthy but without complicating diseases which are relevant in this context) can't use it to see if my risk for serious disease is increased - and how much - if age is my only "disposition".

Quote from: vandermolen on March 16, 2020, 12:00:40 AM
I went into a local supermarket yesterday which appeared to have just been visited by a plague of locusts.

More encouragingly, a neighbour came round yesterday to ask for help in setting up a local support group to try and assist anyone in the village who needs help during the crisis. Apparently everyone so far had agreed to join the group.

Quote from: (: premont :) on March 16, 2020, 02:36:03 AM
This list, which isn't corrected for other serious diseases (heart disease, chronic lung disease et.c.) and doesn't mention whether the patients have got relevant treatment or not, isn't that useful.

Quote from: Florestan on March 16, 2020, 03:29:45 AM
In other words, it's rational and acceptable, recommendable even, to fight over and stockpile toilet paper, food and beverages.

Quote from: Florestan on March 16, 2020, 04:48:04 AM
...you can assume that if --- God forbid! --- you catch the virus and you get adequate treatment you are likely to get cured without complications....

Quote from: ritter on March 16, 2020, 05:42:44 AM
The main problem appears to be that even the most advanced medical systems in the world (and, fortunately, Spain is generally considered to be among them) can cope with the surge of serious cases. Available space in IC units is running out, and previously unthinkable measures (such as medicalisation of some hotels) are being taken.

That's why these drastic measures to contain the pandemic (or rather, delay its spread) are bring taken,  so that adequate treatment is available when it's really needed.

Madrid is now a ghost town, but there's no shortage of foodstuffs in the markets and supermarkets in my neighbourhood (which is right in the middle of the old historic centre). There's no such thing as "eating out" anymore (and surely Spaniards are a people that eats out all the time).

Regards to all,

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 16, 2020, 05:20:14 AM

How are others coping here?  Are you 1) eating out less (if you did eat out often to begin with); 2) shopping less often?; 3) ordering, if possible, to have groceries and/or meals delivered?; 4) stocking up on anything in particular?; 5) cooking more of your meals from scratch?; 6) changing the time of day or days that you do shop?;  7) ordering more online?;   8 helping to shop for neighbors?  Just curious....stay safe everyone!

Quote from: Florestan on March 16, 2020, 04:48:04 AM

But do you really need such a list in order to assess your personal risk? If you are 70+ but wiithout complicating diseases which are relevant in this context you can assume that if --- God forbid! --- you catch the virus and you get adequate treatment you are likely to get cured without complications. A worse scenario, or even the worst, cannot of course be completely excluded, for any age group, but I think a vigilant optimism and the strict following of general hygienic rules and Covid-19-specific rules and restrictions is the best, most rational and helpful attitude. Let us all do whatever we are supposed to do and whatever we are urged to do in order not to get infected --- what else could we do, anyway?

Quote from: steve ridgway on March 16, 2020, 06:08:08 AM
We're not taking the 91 year old father in law to cafes now, just going for a walk and getting take away food to eat outside away from crowded areas. We now stop at a small supermarket on the way to taking the dogs for a walk rather than after, so we avoid the time when it's packed with school kids buying their sweets, chocolate, cake, biscuits and fizzy drink.

What's the state of health of the elderly Italian population nowadays? I haven't been there for about 25 years and in Britain there is now much more obesity, diabetes and medication. My image of healthy people enjoying the Mediterranean diet and sunlight may thus no longer be correct.

Quote from: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 16, 2020, 06:27:30 AM
Not that much has changed. We like to cook at home and rarely go to restaurants nowadays, and we already had a load of toilet paper, canned goods etc. at home. I did go out shopping for some specific things yesterday. Stores are imposing a limit of 2 per customer on certain key items.

The main negative difference for me personally is that work is drying up. If business trips aren't being made, then deals aren't being done, then work is not being generated for me. I'm trying to make the most of the free time, which isn't hard because I can come up with lots of things to do.

The most depressing thing is that our local brewpub closed. I suppose it was inevitable, but we normally go there 2/3 times a week, often with dog. So I'm gonna miss that.

Quote from: (: premont :) on March 16, 2020, 07:28:58 AM
Of course, I take my precautions, just as all other sensible people do. But it would be nice to see a statistic that showed my risk not being much higher than the average risk of all ages, instead of this which shows that people in my age group have got a relatively high risk.

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 16, 2020, 08:39:40 AM
Sorry to hear that...particularly regarding your father-in-law.  How are his spirits holding up?

PD

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 16, 2020, 08:44:33 AM
I'm very sorry to hear to hear about it effecting your work.  Is there a way that you could (or whomever is behind 'the deals') teleconference?  Or does one have to be physically there to demonstrate the product or design it, etc.?

And how long is the pub closed for--at the minimum?  Sounds like a nice place to go to too!

PD

Quote from: (: premont :) on March 16, 2020, 07:28:58 AM
it would be nice to see a statistic that showed my risk not being much higher than the average risk of all ages, instead of this which shows that people in my age group have got a relatively high risk.

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 16, 2020, 05:20:14 AMHow are others coping here?  Are you 1) eating out less (if you did eat out often to begin with); 2) shopping less often?; 3) ordering, if possible, to have groceries and/or meals delivered?; 4) stocking up on anything in particular?; 5) cooking more of your meals from scratch?; 6) changing the time of day or days that you do shop?;  7) ordering more online?;   8 helping to shop for neighbors?  Just curious....stay safe everyone!

Quote from: vandermolen on March 16, 2020, 10:12:53 AM
The schools in the UK are staying open for now. I dislike Boris Johnson but think it is the right decision.

Quote from: Rinaldo on March 16, 2020, 10:20:50 AM
Restaurants are not an option anymore, so we're cooking (and having lots of fun coming up with recipes for meals we haven't had for ages). We've limited our shopping and try to plan ahead more, although we're not stocking up on anything. We've stitched together our own masks as most of the country is doing right now, including people making bunches of them for their local hospitals/retirement homes – the community really coming together is what gives me hope. I see neighbors helping each other and basically people acting in a sensible and unselfish way, now that they realized the true magnitude of this thing.

I can work my primary job from home, which makes things super easy for me, but I've got a lot of friends in the music/sound/theatre business who are suddenly without a paycheck, so we're trying to help them any way we can right now.

I respectfully disagree. This is gambling with people's lives.

Quote from: vandermolen on March 16, 2020, 10:56:01 AM
Re: your last point. I respect your view but am not so sure. If they close the schools the pupils will be at home and their parents may well be at work and therefore they may have to be looked after by their grandparents, who are probably more at risk than any other age group. Therefore the children risk passing on the virus to their grandparents. Whilst they are at school this is less likely to happen.

Quote from: Florestan on March 16, 2020, 12:28:53 PM
I'm sorry, Jeffrey, but I have to disagree. If both children are grandparents stay home, the risk of infection is minimal. If both kids and teachers and parents and grandparents intersect in schools (not to mention the public transportation which probably many if not most of them use to get there) the risk is much higher.

What Boris Johnson does with his "herd immunity" approach is simply medical darwinism: the young and the healty will certainly survive, the middle-aged and healthy will most likely survive, the old and healthy will possibly survive, the old and sick will surely die, but hey, it's the price we got to pay for getting immunity --- and all the while the economy keeps going on. This is cynicism run amok.

Quote from: vandermolen on March 16, 2020, 12:33:40 PM
the Chief Medical Officer said today that if one person in the house is infected then there is a very good chance that they will pass it on to others in the house.

Quote from: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 16, 2020, 09:43:06 AM
I'm a translator, so I'm working with documents on my computer, and all of this depends on having a smooth flow of international business. Demand naturally fluctuates, that's the nature of this freelance job, but I have no idea how long the current slowdown will last. Teleconferencing is irrelevant to me personally.

The brewpub is planning to close this week until it becomes safe to reopen. It is a nice place, in fact they just celebrated their 10th anniversary. They've won a lot of awards over that decade.

https://www.lbbrew.com/

Quote from: vandermolen on March 16, 2020, 10:12:53 AM
The schools in the UK are staying open for now. I dislike Boris Johnson but think it is the right decision. If the school, where I teach, closes I will be expected to teach my classes by 'online video lessons' from home. Sounds like a total nightmare. Apparently my students will be able to see me but I will not be able to see them. I have a vision of trying to teach them from the living room of my house with the cat standing on the laptop keyboard and staring into the screen, as he often does, and my wife shouting from the kitchen for me to come and help with the washing up. I told my daughter about this nightmare scenario and her boss said that she wants to join my 'online lesson'.  ???

Quote from: Rinaldo on March 16, 2020, 10:20:50 AM
Restaurants are not an option anymore, so we're cooking (and having lots of fun coming up with recipes for meals we haven't had for ages). We've limited our shopping and try to plan ahead more, although we're not stocking up on anything. We've stitched together our own masks as most of the country is doing right now, including people making bunches of them for their local hospitals/retirement homes – the community really coming together is what gives me hope. I see neighbors helping each other and basically people acting in a sensible and unselfish way, now that they realized the true magnitude of this thing.

I can work my primary job from home, which makes things super easy for me, but I've got a lot of friends in the music/sound/theatre business who are suddenly without a paycheck, so we're trying to help them any way we can right now.

I respectfully disagree. This is gambling with people's lives.

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 16, 2020, 02:17:43 PM
Good to hear that you're having fun cooking!   :)  Wow, stitching your own masks?!  How do you know what to make them of and how effective they might be?  Obviously, something is better than nothing....

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 16, 2020, 01:56:32 PM
Looks like a cool place!  And I see that they really DO spin vinyl!   ;D Have you ever brought any of your own albums to listen to there?

Quote from: Baron Scarpia on March 16, 2020, 02:51:11 PM
Any mask will remind you not to touch your mouth or nose, and touching your mouth or nose after touching a contaminated surface is the most common mode of transmission. You can consciously avoid people who might sneeze in your direction, but it's almost impossible to remember not to touch your face.

Quote from: Florestan on March 16, 2020, 12:28:53 PM
I'm sorry, Jeffrey, but I have to disagree. If both children are grandparents stay home, the risk of infection is minimal. If both kids and teachers and parents and grandparents intersect in schools (not to mention the public transportation which probably many if not most of them use to get there) the risk is much higher.

What Boris Johnson does with his "herd immunity" approach is simply medical darwinism: the young and the healty will certainly survive, the middle-aged and healthy will most likely survive, the old and healthy will possibly survive, the old and sick will surely die, but hey, it's the price we got to pay for getting immunity --- and all the while the economy keeps going on. This is cynicism run amok.

Quote from: T. D. on March 16, 2020, 05:07:54 PM
FYI:
My brother is a doctor in Rochester, NY. This was his response (in personal e-mail) today to the standard "how's it going" question:

​Crazy. Not a lot of cases yet but uncertainty and anxiety. The sad thing is that this illustrates how messed up our health care system is. The outfit that supplies our hospital with all personal protective gear was, until a few weeks ago, getting all of the materials from factories in Wuhan China. We have not gotten any of the results of the 250+ COVID tests and have just gotten the capacity to run the tests here today and capacity will only be about 100 a day.
The hospital and country are running out of gloves, masks and goggles.
Not a good scene.

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 16, 2020, 02:13:37 PM
:laugh: Oh, dear!  But that is a funny image....sorry!   :)  Think that I'd worry more that my students would be so focused on my 'cute/amusing' cat that they wouldn't be listening to what I was saying!
*
Suggestions:  1) Kitty is to be (temporarily) barred from being in "X" room whilst you are teaching (make sure that food and water and favorite toys are elsewhere); 2) No communication allowed from family members whilst you are teaching (perhaps a note on the door to remind them)...short of an emergency, of course. 3) wondering whether or not you would need to have on hand some kind of dry-erase board?  Or do you use something like that in class at all?; 4) have a bottle of water nearby in event of a dry throat (is there a pause switch or could you go off-camera?) 5) turn off any landline phones in that room or temporarily unplug them; 6) have a good look in the mirror before having class; 7) clean your video/photo lens on the computer before class so no 'smudges'.   :)

*hopefull Kitty will not meow and/or scratch the door wanting to get into your room!

Schools closed here and a number of other organizations....some stores too either closing for either a couple of weeks, a few days, indefinitely?  I've received emails from a few businesses that I've signed up to and some of them are doing "curbside" sales:  some form of either order online or over the phone and they will meet you somewhere....could be entrance to the store...just outside...??

Quote from: JBS on March 16, 2020, 05:03:23 PM
Not quite.  The idea is to keep infection rates slower and old/sick as isolated as possible, until herd immunity develops. Meanwhile, if infection rate is manageable, hospitals will be able to provide ventilators and all other necessary care to the old/sick who do become infected.

In the US (not sure about elsewhere) the question of closing schools is complicated by the fact that schools serve not only as effective day care but also provide one or more meals per schoolday to kids from poor families. For these kids school means healthy food, possibly the main meals of the day.  So local authorities have to come up with alternate means of distributing meals and alternate day care for parents with no alternative.

Quote from: Florestan on March 16, 2020, 01:02:43 PM
That's absolutely true, happened in Romania, where a person infected all his family. But I ask you: when is the probabilty of infection higher, when all persons in a household interact with many other persons, or when only a few persons in the household do?

Btw, the number of infections in Romania would have been much smaller if some people returning from high risk countries would have told the truth to the authorities and got placed in quarantine, or would have not left the quarantine. Of the 168 cases reported as I'm typing, 42 are officially prosecuted for either lying about the countries they were returning from, or for leaving the quarantine. Go figure!

Quote from: vandermolen on March 16, 2020, 10:51:04 PM
That's a good point Jeffrey. I expect that the schools here may well close by the end of the week any way.

Quote from: Mandryka on March 17, 2020, 12:02:07 AM
Shocking that the teachers unions have been once again so toothless, their members have been placed right on the front line, many of them are over 60 or have health problems.

The Imperial College report which is the best model we have suggests that social isolation will have to persist for at least 18 months, until a vaccine becomes available. If the schools in the UK close soon, it may be some time before they reopen permanently. There's lots of opportunity here for distance learning to be developed.

The childcare issue is a real one, no one will want to let the grandparents look after the kids, everyone knows the dangers. I'm not at all sure what the possibilities are - people will have to take the kids into work I guess - children are very adaptable of course.

Quote from: SimonNZ on March 17, 2020, 12:06:55 AM
Interesting. But if children are together in an ad hoc workplace daycare, how is that different from being together in a classroom?

Quote from: Mandryka on March 17, 2020, 12:13:20 AM
I don't know if there's some epidemiological consequence of putting a lot of kids together in a school.

Quote from: SimonNZ on March 17, 2020, 12:15:58 AM
I don't understand then. Why are schools being closed?

Quote from: Mandryka on March 17, 2020, 12:20:21 AM
They havent been  closed in the UK, and the argument has always been that closing them doesn't have a significant positive impact on mortality, and indeed may have a significant negative impact if vulnerable people get roped into the child care.


There was an interview in British TV yesterday where the health minister was asked why people should isolate themselves if the kids are coming home from school and infecting them - they may as well go to the pub since everyone's already infected. The answer was all to do with protecting the vulnerable groups - grannies looking after kids etc -  everything is focused on stopping the vulnerable groups  from ever catching the virus,

You see how complicated these questions are! Can you imagine what it's like to have to make these decisions?  Our leaders are going to earn their wages this year!

Quote from: JBS on March 16, 2020, 05:03:23 PM
In the US (not sure about elsewhere) the question of closing schools is complicated by the fact that schools serve not only as effective day care but also provide one or more meals per schoolday to kids from poor families. For these kids school means healthy food, possibly the main meals of the day.  So local authorities have to come up with alternate means of distributing meals and alternate day care for parents with no alternative.

Quote from: vandermolen on March 16, 2020, 10:54:07 PM
for children from a poorer background their school meal may well be their only hot meal of the day.

Quote from: Marc on March 17, 2020, 02:12:00 AM
The Dutch government is (typically ;)) somewhere between Britain and the rest of Europe (like France, Spain, Italy): schools are closed, but there is no complete lockdown of/in the country.

Quote from: Crudblud on March 17, 2020, 01:16:47 AM
Seems like I got me the ol' corona cough. Two mornings running I've had an irritation on my chest and throat, yesterday it cleared up as the day progressed but it is much more pronounced this morning. It's not a big deal in terms of self-isolation since I'm quite a solitary person and have worked from home for a number of years, but I am nonetheless concerned about disrupting family business with my viral shenanigans.

Quote from: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 02:25:49 AM
Wait a minute, Jeffrey and Jeffrey! Do you mean that in 2020 AD in two of the richest countries in the world there are still numerous families so poor that they can't even afford to feed their children and, absent the school meal(s), the poor kids would be starving?  :o :o :o

Quote from: mc ukrneal on March 17, 2020, 03:03:44 AM
Yes. There are children who come to school without having had food for breakfast and without bringing a meal with them. Most (many?) districts offer some form of free food to students who need it. But not all. And some teachers/school workers spend their own money so that the kids can eat.  Is it not shocking and truly unbelievable?

Quote from: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 03:08:30 AM
Shocking and unbelievable, yes. I'm beggining to wonder whether Poju is actually right.

Quote from: mc ukrneal on March 17, 2020, 03:12:55 AM
And if you want to see evidence of this, you can find clips of the Ellen show over the years where she gives away money to teachers and schools to help address this problem.

Quote from: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 02:25:49 AM
Wait a minute, Jeffrey and Jeffrey! Do you mean that in 2020 AD in two of the richest countries in the world there are still numerous families so poor that they can't even afford to feed their children and, absent the school meal(s), the poor kids would be starving?  :o :o :o

Quote from: Mandryka on March 17, 2020, 04:01:38 AM
It may be negligent parenting rather than poverty.

Quote from: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 02:40:32 AM
Oh, God! You should get in touch with the medical authorities in charge immediately and without delay. Best of luck and speedy recovery!

Quote from: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 04:12:41 AM
Please elaborate.

Quote from: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 03:08:30 AM
Shocking and unbelievable, yes. I'm beggining to wonder whether Poju is actually right.

Quote from: Crudblud on March 17, 2020, 04:27:17 AM
The current advice given by the UK government is to only seek professional help if/when symptoms become severe.

QuoteDoubts as to Johnson's fitness for office will surely be redoubled many times over as the situation progresses.

QuoteThe cough has steadily abated over the course of the morning, as it did yesterday, but it's too early to say one way or the other whether this is a pattern of escalation or simply "one of those things", in fact impossible since (afaik) the NHS is not at present offering or even able to offer routine testing.

QuoteI'm still young and healthy so I'm not worried for myself,

Quote
the real concern is that I will heighten the risk posed to my elderly grandmother, who relies on my mother and I for help with shopping and other errands. The plan at this point is simply to keep myself clean and out of other people's way as much as possible.

Quote from: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 04:41:20 AM


A most wise plan, but I'm still shocked that the government itself has no plan whatsoever.

Quote from: SimonNZ on March 17, 2020, 04:38:23 AM
The story I heard was that unless you personally have a plan for fixing it then you shouldn't worry about it.

Remind me who said that.

Quote from: Mandryka on March 17, 2020, 04:01:38 AM
It may be negligent parenting rather than poverty.

Quote from: Baron Scarpia on March 16, 2020, 02:51:11 PM
Any mask will remind you not to touch your mouth or nose, and touching your mouth or nose after touching a contaminated surface is the most common mode of transmission. You can consciously avoid people who might sneeze in your direction, but it's almost impossible to remember not to touch your face.

Quote from: Crudblud on March 17, 2020, 01:16:47 AM
Seems like I got me the ol' corona cough. Two mornings running I've had an irritation on my chest and throat, yesterday it cleared up as the day progressed but it is much more pronounced this morning. It's not a big deal in terms of self-isolation since I'm quite a solitary person and have worked from home for a number of years, but I am nonetheless concerned about disrupting family business with my viral shenanigans.

Quote from: vandermolen on March 17, 2020, 05:43:00 AM
Hope you get better soon - and then you should be immune.

Quote from: Mandryka on March 17, 2020, 04:37:44 AM
Everyone here makes their own decisions about what to spend their money on, and how much attention to give their children.

Quote from: Marc on March 17, 2020, 02:12:00 AM
The Dutch government is (typically ;)) somewhere between Britain and the rest of Europe (like France, Spain, Italy): schools are closed, but there is no complete lockdown of/in the country. For the same reason as the Brits: protect the vulnerable groups, and let's give the stronger and healthy ones somehow the chance to build a natural 'group immunity' against the virus. (If I correct understandly, I'm not a medic.)

Quote from: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 02:25:49 AM
Wait a minute, Jeffrey and Jeffrey! Do you mean that in 2020 AD in two of the richest countries in the world there are still numerous families so poor that they can't even afford to feed their children and, absent the school meal(s), the poor kids would be starving?  :o :o :o

Quote from: vandermolen on March 17, 2020, 05:56:37 AM
Children from poor families (and they do exist) may be eligible for free school meals and have a more nutritious diet than they get at home.

Quote from: Crudblud on March 17, 2020, 04:27:17 AM
The current advice given by the UK government is to only seek professional help if/when symptoms become severe. They are totally ignoring the WHO's simple advice of "test, test, test", instead telling people to simply stay at home if they exhibit any symptoms. The NHS has been in dire straits for some time now, and the government seems to be taking the cheapo approach to public health during this crisis also. Doubts as to Johnson's fitness for office will surely be redoubled many times over as the situation progresses.

The cough has steadily abated over the course of the morning, as it did yesterday, but it's too early to say one way or the other whether this is a pattern of escalation or simply "one of those things", in fact impossible since (afaik) the NHS is not at present offering or even able to offer routine testing. I'm still young and healthy so I'm not worried for myself, the real concern is that I will heighten the risk posed to my elderly grandmother, who relies on my mother and I for help with shopping and other errands. The plan at this point is simply to keep myself clean and out of other people's way as much as possible.

Quote from: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 03:08:30 AM
Shocking and unbelievable, yes. I'm beggining to wonder whether Poju is actually right.

Quote from: Crudblud on March 17, 2020, 04:27:17 AM
The cough has steadily abated over the course of the morning, as it did yesterday, but it's too early to say one way or the other whether this is a pattern of escalation or simply "one of those things", in fact impossible since (afaik) the NHS is not at present offering or even able to offer routine testing. I'm still young and healthy so I'm not worried for myself, the real concern is that I will heighten the risk posed to my elderly grandmother, who relies on my mother and I for help with shopping and other errands. The plan at this point is simply to keep myself clean and out of other people's way as much as possible.

Quote from: vandermolen on March 17, 2020, 05:56:37 AM
Children from poor families (and they do exist) may be eligible for free school meals and have a more nutritious diet than they get at home. The other dark issue is if the children are sent home into a situation of psychological/emotional neglect/abuse. There are many people around, and not only children, who feel safer and happier at school or work.

Quote from: pjme on March 17, 2020, 06:20:46 AM
Exactly the situation in Belgium.
P.

Quote from: drogulus on March 17, 2020, 06:07:13 AM
     There is no question that he is right. Just look at the personal nature of the responses to his observations, which focus on how radical a source he uses is and how unreasonably blinkered he is about a politician.

Quote from: pjme on March 17, 2020, 06:20:46 AM
Exactly the situation in Belgium.
P.

Quote from: Crudblud on March 17, 2020, 01:16:47 AM
Seems like I got me the ol' corona cough. Two mornings running I've had an irritation on my chest and throat, yesterday it cleared up as the day progressed but it is much more pronounced this morning. It's not a big deal in terms of self-isolation since I'm quite a solitary person and have worked from home for a number of years, but I am nonetheless concerned about disrupting family business with my viral shenanigans.

Quote from: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 06:41:06 AM
C'est le ton qui fait la chanson . I think that not even you can seriously deny that saying "I'm right about cause X and all those who disagree with me are just idiots/brainswashed/ill-willed" can make a rational person sympathetic to cause X recoil in horror.

Quote from: vandermolen on March 16, 2020, 10:48:29 PM
Good advice. Thank you PD  :)

Quote from: Crudblud on March 17, 2020, 01:16:47 AM
Seems like I got me the ol' corona cough. Two mornings running I've had an irritation on my chest and throat, yesterday it cleared up as the day progressed but it is much more pronounced this morning. It's not a big deal in terms of self-isolation since I'm quite a solitary person and have worked from home for a number of years, but I am nonetheless concerned about disrupting family business with my viral shenanigans.

Quote from: pjme on March 17, 2020, 06:48:27 AM
With or without corona:

The threat of becoming poor continues to hang over Belgians, according to the latest Statbel figures, which show that in 2018, just over 16% of the country's inhabitants risked financial poverty.

This is the highest level since 2004, when such measurements were begun, according to the national statistical office.

The poverty risk is calculated on the basis of available income. Anyone living in a household with a monthly available income of less than 1,187 euros (for a single person) is considered at risk. Last year, 16.4% of the Belgian population belonged to this category, up from 15.9% in 2017.

Unsurprisingly, the poverty risk is higher among homeless persons (49.4%) than among workers (5.2%). Other high-risk categories include single-parent families and renters. People with at best a lower-secondary diploma are four times more likely to become poor than those with higher diplomas (27.8% as against 6.4%).

According to Statbel, 12.1% of the population were in households with low labour intensity in 2018, down from 13.5% in 2017. The proportion of Belgians suffering from severe material deprivation also decreased slightly, from 5.1% in 2017 to 4.9% in 2018.

Persons facing at least one of the high-risk situations are considered at risk of poverty or social exclusion, according to the European Poverty Indicator, developed within the framework of the "Europe 2020 Strategy. In 2018, they comprised 19.8% of the population, as against 20.3% in 2017.

Oscar Schneider
The Brussels Times

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 17, 2020, 06:54:11 AM
Or, you could print out a copy of this and paste it onto a board and then hold it up in front of you and do the talking behind it.   :D

(https://kittybloger.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/cats-love-computers-4.jpg)

Quote from: Marc on March 17, 2020, 06:48:00 AM
Be sure to call a doctor though if you really begin to suffer from breathing difficulties.
Stay safe!

Quote from: Crudblud on March 17, 2020, 01:16:47 AM
Seems like I got me the ol' corona cough. Two mornings running I've had an irritation on my chest and throat, yesterday it cleared up as the day progressed but it is much more pronounced this morning. It's not a big deal in terms of self-isolation since I'm quite a solitary person and have worked from home for a number of years, but I am nonetheless concerned about disrupting family business with my viral shenanigans.

Quote from: drogulus on March 17, 2020, 06:07:13 AM
     There is no question that he is right. Just look at the personal nature of the responses to his observations, which focus on how radical a source he uses is and how unreasonably blinkered he is about a politician.

Quote from: drogulus on March 17, 2020, 06:49:53 AM
I understood your wonder as expressing the opposite view.

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 17, 2020, 08:49:03 AM
the question is just how they may practically addressed?

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 17, 2020, 06:55:04 AM
Please take good care of yourself and all good wishes too towards your family and friends.

Quote from: drogulus on March 17, 2020, 06:55:43 AM
     However convenient a poverty class may be in normal times

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 17, 2020, 09:37:42 AM
Really annoyed here!  I'm trying to be good and stay home most of the time and my doorbell rings:  it's a guy from an energy company wanting to talk to me about switching providers!  I told him I was trying to keep a 6 foot distance due to the virus!  And he's about 2 feet away from me and going around door to door during this epidemic!  What the h*%l is that company thinking?!   >:(

And I hate solicitations/marketers to begin with!  >:(

PD

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 17, 2020, 09:37:42 AM
Really annoyed here!  I'm trying to be good and stay home most of the time and my doorbell rings:  it's a guy from an energy company wanting to talk to me about switching providers!  I told him I was trying to keep a 6 foot distance due to the virus!  And he's about 2 feet away from me and going around door to door during this epidemic!  What the h*%l is that company thinking?!   >:(

And I hate solicitations/marketers to begin with!  >:(

PD

Quote from: André on March 17, 2020, 08:08:03 AM
Not much is known about the situation in Russia, as the government keeps mum on the subject.

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 17, 2020, 09:37:42 AM
Really annoyed here!  I'm trying to be good and stay home most of the time and my doorbell rings:  it's a guy from an energy company wanting to talk to me about switching providers!  I told him I was trying to keep a 6 foot distance due to the virus!  And he's about 2 feet away from me and going around door to door during this epidemic!  What the h*%l is that company thinking?!   >:(

And I hate solicitations/marketers to begin with!  >:(

PD

Quote from: JBS on March 17, 2020, 09:49:19 AM
I go by the rule that if a person spends a lot of money to get elected, then that person is not someone I want in office. 

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 17, 2020, 09:38:17 AM
Yeesh!

Quote from: mc ukrneal on March 17, 2020, 09:42:15 AM
I never open the door to people I don't know. Period. You can ask questions through the door if necessary. When was the last time a stranger came to your door and it was really important that you hear it (and the person was not in a fire or police uniform)? Exactly....

Quote from: JBS on March 17, 2020, 09:49:19 AM
You should have started coughing and complaining about your runny nose.... >:D

I live in a townhouse, and am usually upstairs,  So when the (now relatively rare) solicitor comes around,  I open up the front bedroom window and talk to them from there.

A few months ago, the man running against the incumbent mayor of my city came around, going door to door in anticipation of the election (which is today).  First time a politician has come to my door in a while.  I ended up voting for him.  Both as a courtesy for the door to door campaign, and because the incumbent is doing a huge number of mailings, most negative.  I go by the rule that if a person spends a lot of money to get elected, then that person is not someone I want in office.  He (or she) wants it to badly.

Quote from: Daverz on March 17, 2020, 10:28:43 AM
I'm running out of beer.   :(

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 17, 2020, 10:37:24 AM
Silly me!  I had at first thought that it was someone from a utility company or maybe census bureau on official (necessary) business.  And yes, next time I'll answer through the door's crack...at least 'til things have calmed down.   :(

I did let the police know and the officer who answered the non-emergency number agreed that it was not a smart thing for the guy to be doing at this point in time and would talk to their supervisor about that; and, hopefully,  if they found him would suggest that to him.  I tried calling the company first, but I must have gotten the name of it incorrectly as they said that they would never send people around like that.  Anyhoo....

Quote from: Daverz on March 17, 2020, 10:28:43 AM
It's just starting to sink in here how long this thing may last

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/17/21181694/coronavirus-covid-19-lockdowns-end-how-long-months-years

And I'm running out of beer.   :(

Quote from: JBS on March 17, 2020, 10:52:24 AM
a nice walk there.  The weather here is perfect-

Quote from: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 10:55:30 AM
Talk about *I want it all and I want it now!*   :laugh:

Quote from: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 10:44:57 AM
I'm beginning to run out of my next-to-last barrel of home-made wine.

I promised myself --- and I will keep my promise, so help me my wife! --- not to open the last barrel before Easter (April 19, that is). So if I run out of wine I'll go the beer route --- I don't know about USA but here in Romanai there's never going to be any shortage of beer.

Really. folks --- in the last few weeks I realized that Romania may look like an Eastern Europe backward country to foreigners but to myself, accustomed as I am to Romania inside out, it looks like one of the best countries to be in right now. I mean, 184 infections, 18 people cured and not a single death in 3 weeks doesn't look that bad, eh?

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 17, 2020, 11:05:42 AM
May the mildness continue!

Quote from: JBS on March 17, 2020, 10:59:35 AM
I hardly ever go to the beach.  Either it's raining, or it's the middle of snowbird season, or it's summer and it's too dang hot out to enjoy being outside.  Even if the outside is the ocean surf.

Quote from: Daverz on March 17, 2020, 10:28:43 AM
It's just starting to sink in here how long this thing may last

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/17/21181694/coronavirus-covid-19-lockdowns-end-how-long-months-years

And I'm running out of beer.   :(

Quote from: JBS on March 17, 2020, 10:49:34 AM
If they denied knowing about it, he may have been a scam artist.  In which case the police really do need to find him!

Quote from: JBS on March 17, 2020, 10:52:24 AM
The article includes a picture of Fort Lauderdale Beach.  My original plans for today (I was scheduled off from work) included a nice walk there.  The weather here is perfect--no rain, lows aboug 70F, highs in the mid80s--for the beach.

Sigh.....

Quote from: André on March 17, 2020, 08:08:03 AM
Not much is known about the situation in Russia, as the government keeps mum on the subject. A CBC article says it's a time bomb.

Quote from: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdfThe global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents  is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic.

QuoteHere we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks

QuoteIn the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of public  health  measures –so-called  non-pharmaceutical  interventions  (NPIs) –aimed  at  reducing contactrates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain specifically) and the US.

QuoteTwo fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread

Quotesuppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case  numbers to low  levels  and  maintaining  that  situation  indefinitely

QuoteWe find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths  by  half. However, the  resulting  mitigated  epidemic  would  still likely  result  in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 17, 2020, 01:29:26 PM
IRS gives Americans 3-month break to file taxes

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 17, 2020, 03:15:04 PM
Pardon, but I'm not quite certain if your comment is totally accurate Karl.  One article that I looked at on a news website said that one still needed to file on time, but it sounded like one might (depending upon eligibility?) then not have to pay (if you do owe) the amount due for 90 days without incurring interest and/or penalties?

I'd advise anyone to check with either your (if you have one) tax preparer and/or the IRS website (might not be up to date yet as far as I can see?).  And also check with your state to see if they are offering any breaks too.

Hard to keep up with all of the news and ideas at the moment!  No criticism meant too Karl.  I'm struggling at this end to follow all of the news, possible breaks, economic stimuli, etc.!

Confused at this end,

PD

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 17, 2020, 03:15:04 PM
Pardon, but I'm not quite certain if your comment is totally accurate Karl.  One article that I looked at on a news website said that one still needed to file on time, but it sounded like one might (depending upon eligibility?) then not have to pay (if you do owe) the amount due for 90 days without incurring interest and/or penalties?

I'd advise anyone to check with either your (if you have one) tax preparer and/or the IRS website (might not be up to date yet as far as I can see?).  And also check with your state to see if they are offering any breaks too.

Hard to keep up with all of the news and ideas at the moment!  No criticism meant too Karl.  I'm struggling at this end to follow all of the news, possible breaks, economic stimuli, etc.!

Confused at this end,

PD

Quote from: JBS on March 17, 2020, 03:31:13 PM
According to this, we still have to file by 4/15, but that might be changed.
https://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/tax-compliance/news/21129660/2020-tax-season-payment-deadline-extended-to-july-15-as-nation-fights-coronavirus-irs-news

Quote from: 71 dB on March 17, 2020, 02:06:35 PM
Finland started to take political actions this week and it feels like we are at war against Corona. I'm nervous for my dad, 81 who is alone home avoiding all social contacts. I don't care about US politics right now. I have enough problems in my life. I feel my "quota" is full. I concentrate on my own well-being now. Sure, Finland is a well-functioning society with good infrastructure to deal with problems like this, but it's serious nevertheless. Just week ago my life was quite normal. Now I am planning my grocery store visits to minimaze interactions with other people... ...so I have no energy and interest to follow "latest polls" in primary states etc. stuff.

Fuck China for creating this mess!

Quote from: JBS on March 17, 2020, 03:45:33 PM
That's not very different from what is going on here, and many other places. May you and your father stay safe and healthy.

Among other things the panic buyers in my area have all bought up is laundry detergent.  I have told the German word for panic buying like that is Hamsterkauf. I hope it is, because it is so fitting.

Quote from: 71 dB on March 17, 2020, 02:06:35 PM
Finland started to take political actions this week and it feels like we are at war against Corona. I'm nervous for my dad, 81 who is alone home avoiding all social contacts....

Quote from: JBS on March 17, 2020, 03:45:33 PM
That's not very different from what is going on here, and many other places. May you and your father stay safe and healthy.

Among other things the panic buyers in my area have all bought up is laundry detergent.  I have told the German word for panic buying like that is Hamsterkauf. I hope it is, because it is so fitting.

Quote from: 71 dB on March 17, 2020, 02:06:35 PM
I don't care about US politics right now. I have enough problems in my life.

Quote from: JBS on March 17, 2020, 03:45:33 PM
That's not very different from what is going on here, and many other places. May you and your father stay safe and healthy.

Quote from: JBS on March 17, 2020, 03:45:33 PMAmong other things the panic buyers in my area have all bought up is laundry detergent.  I have told the German word for panic buying like that is Hamsterkauf. I hope it is, because it is so fitting.

Quote from: 71 dB on March 17, 2020, 05:31:48 PM
Thanks. I wish the same to you.

https://qz.com/ (https://qz.com/)

There are even empty supermarket shelves in Germany amid the coronavirus outbreak, and of course there's a good German word to describe the act of panic hoarding.

The word Hamsterkauf, a noun made up of "hoarding" (hamstern) and "buy" (kaufen) has been trending on social media as people share photos of store shelves cleared out of food and other household items. The word "hamstern" comes from the hamster, which stores food in its cheeks.

We have the word "hamstrata" / "hamstraus" in Finnish language meaning "to hoard" / "hoarding."

Quote from: 71 dB on March 17, 2020, 02:06:35 PM
Finland started to take political actions this week and it feels like we are at war against Corona. I'm nervous for my dad, 81 who is alone home avoiding all social contacts. I don't care about US politics right now. I have enough problems in my life. I feel my "quota" is full. I concentrate on my own well-being now. Sure, Finland is a well-functioning society with good infrastructure to deal with problems like this, but it's serious nevertheless. Just week ago my life was quite normal. Now I am planning my grocery store visits to minimaze interactions with other people... ...so I have no energy and interest to follow "latest polls" in primary states etc. stuff.

Fuck China for creating this mess!

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 17, 2020, 04:11:42 PM
I wish all of the best for you, your family, friends, and country.  We're all facing uncharted waters and it's scary; you're not alone.

Best wishes,

PD

Quote from: drogulus on March 17, 2020, 04:37:15 PM
          That's disappointing. I hope you come back with a sword in your hand. _{(http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/smiley.gif)}

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 17, 2020, 05:41:00 PM
Best wishes, Poju!

Quote from: Mirror Image on March 17, 2020, 05:56:15 PM
I can certainly understand the feeling. I do hope things will be on the upswing. All the best to you and your loved ones, Poju.

Quote from: drogulus on March 17, 2020, 07:29:58 PM
     NYC has 100 new cases in the last few hours. Earlier today they had 2 deaths, now it's 10.

Quote from: Mirror Image on March 17, 2020, 07:39:35 PM
But what are the ages of the people who have died?

Quote from: drogulus on March 17, 2020, 08:18:34 PM
     
     That's all I know.

Quote from: 71 dB on March 17, 2020, 02:06:35 PM
Finland started to take political actions this week and it feels like we are at war against Corona. I'm nervous for my dad, 81 who is alone home avoiding all social contacts. I don't care about US politics right now. I have enough problems in my life. I feel my "quota" is full. I concentrate on my own well-being now. Sure, Finland is a well-functioning society with good infrastructure to deal with problems like this, but it's serious nevertheless. Just week ago my life was quite normal. Now I am planning my grocery store visits to minimaze interactions with other people... ...so I have no energy and interest to follow "latest polls" in primary states etc. stuff.

Fuck China for creating this mess!

Quote from: Mirror Image on March 17, 2020, 08:19:45 PM
Age is something that should be reported on as this is a part of the statistics.

Quote from: drogulus on March 18, 2020, 05:22:39 AM
     This is from May, 2018:

     Top White House official in charge of pandemic response exits abruptly (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/05/10/top-white-house-official-in-charge-of-pandemic-response-exits-abruptly/)

The top White House official responsible for leading the U.S. response in the event of a deadly pandemic has left the administration, and the global health security team he oversaw has been disbanded under a reorganization by national security adviser John Bolton.

The abrupt departure of Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer from the National Security Council means no senior administration official is now focused solely on global health security. Ziemer's departure, along with the breakup of his team, comes at a time when many experts say the country is already underprepared for the increasing risks of a pandemic or bioterrorism attack.

   

Quote from: T. D. on March 18, 2020, 08:16:02 AM
This was reported and publicly revisited several days ago. Bolton dismissed it as raving by "the angry left".

Quote from: Baron Scarpia on March 18, 2020, 09:37:52 AM
The one bit of reassuring news I see is the new infections in China has dropped dramatically, essentially to nil, and that the authorities are comfortable enough to remove the general lockdown that has been in effect. "Social distancing" is still practiced.

This suggests it is within the realm of possibility to contain this, albeit by implementing draconian measures.

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 18, 2020, 09:49:06 AM
And the Chinese people have, in a sense, the advantage of us, as they have more experience of draconian measures. Something which, no, I do not envy them.

Quote from: Mirror Image on March 17, 2020, 08:19:45 PM
Age is something that should be reported on as this is a part of the statistics.

Quote from: vandermolen on March 18, 2020, 11:11:14 AM
All UK schools closing on Friday but provision is being made for vulnerable children and the children of health workers to stay on. I'm going to have to deliver my lessons by remote access which I'm not looking forward to. I still think that the government, which I do not generally support, were right to keep the schools open as long as possible and I'm glad that there is increasing awareness of the plight of children from abusive homes. Schools may still provide meals for vulnerable children. All public examinations are cancelled. I told my young History class today to be aware, as historians, of the significance of the historical time, worrying though it is, that they are living through.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51952314

Quote from: Mandryka on March 18, 2020, 02:04:03 PM
Another question. Why will closing schools slow the spread of the virus? I just don't understand, I think I must be missing something obvious. Is it to do with protecting teachers?

Quote from: Mandryka on March 18, 2020, 11:19:48 AM
Who will look after the kids being provided for?

Quote from: vandermolen on March 18, 2020, 11:11:14 AM
All UK schools closing on Friday but provision is being made for vulnerable children and the children of health workers to stay on. I'm going to have to deliver my lessons by remote access which I'm not looking forward to. I still think that the government, which I do not generally support, were right to keep the schools open as long as possible and I'm glad that there is increasing awareness of the plight of children from abusive homes. Schools may still provide meals for vulnerable children. All public examinations are cancelled. I told my young History class today to be aware, as historians, of the significance of the historical time, worrying though it is, that they are living through.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51952314

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 18, 2020, 03:00:20 PM
Scary and confusing times, I know.  I suspect that you've probably already done a bit of thinking on how you might (if needed) conduct online classes....and perhaps have had a talk with your feline?

On the news lately, images and today some interviews with college kids partying on the beaches of Florida, etc.  It's sinking in to a few of them, but me thinks too little too late!   :(

Quote from: vandermolen on March 18, 2020, 03:03:20 PM
I expect that our cat Oliver will play a starring role during the online lessons as he enjoys walking all over the computer keyboard or lying down on it whenever I need to use it!

Quote from: Mandryka on March 18, 2020, 01:59:07 PM
There may be an obvious answer to this and if so, I'm sorry. Can someone explain to me why the number of cases peaks? I mean, why is the graph a sombrero?  Why doesn't it go on until heard immunity is reached?

Quote from: Mandryka
Is it because of its expected behaviour in Summer weather? Or is it just because of social distancing? Or because of heard immunity? Or what?

And why will there be subsequent cycles?

Quote from: Irons on March 18, 2020, 02:36:11 PM
Italy in particular is suffering. The latest figures of deaths is shocking in the extreme.

Quote from: Mandryka on March 18, 2020, 02:04:03 PM
Another question. Why will closing schools slow the spread of the virus? I just don't understand, I think I must be missing something obvious. Is it to do with protecting teachers?

Quote from: André on March 18, 2020, 04:10:27 PM
I'm not sure if this has been posted, but it's a fascinating article - with « living graph » simulations. It explains how a spreading virus reacts to containment measures such as quarantine, social distancing.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/)

Quote from: André on March 18, 2020, 04:10:27 PM
I'm not sure if this has been posted, but it's a fascinating article - with « living graph » simulations. It explains how a spreading virus reacts to containment measures such as quarantine, social distancing.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/)

Quote from: Irons on March 18, 2020, 02:42:12 PM
I believe children are super-spreaders of the virus although they are not ill themselves.

Quote from: greg on March 18, 2020, 09:26:27 PM
Probably mentioned already, but looks like China and South Korea have already flattened the curve.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/


In the US the curve is going upward still, so probably the same pattern will exist for every country to where their curves will flatten later.

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 18, 2020, 03:17:32 PM
So, no banishment (during classes) then?  Perhaps he could help to provide some needed levity/tension-relief?  After all, laughter is the best medicine.   ;)

Good luck and let us know how it goes.

PD

Quote from: vandermolen on March 18, 2020, 10:43:26 PM
Thank you PD.
Although as a technophobe I'm not looking forward to it.

Quote from: Mandryka on March 18, 2020, 09:59:09 PM
But they've already spread it to the adults they have contact with, parents and teachers.

Quote from: Mandryka on March 18, 2020, 10:02:27 PM
They've flattened the curve by isolating people, presumably if they let social contacts return to normal, the curve will take off again. There isn't as yet critical levels of immunity in the population.

Quote from: Irons on March 18, 2020, 02:42:12 PM
I believe children are super-spreaders of the virus although they are not ill themselves.

Quote from: Irons on March 19, 2020, 01:19:06 AM
Clutching at straws, but a report in newspaper this morning that treatment for malaria may have some affect.

"Despite the grim figures, some scientists are optimistic. An eminent French doctor from Insitut Hospitalo-Universitaire in Marseilles claimed a drug used for malaria could stop the virus being contagious in just six days.
Professor Didier Raoult said a group of 24 patients who were given chloroquine experienced a rapid speeding up of their healing process as wellas the time they remained contagious.
Professor Robin May, an expert in infectious disease at Birmingham University said "Since it has a long history of clinical use, the safety profile of chloroquine is well established and is cheap and relatively easy to manufacture".

Quote from: (: premont :) on March 19, 2020, 01:20:57 AM
Yes, and that's why these measures will be necessary for several months and maybe again next winter.

Quote from: Mandryka on March 19, 2020, 02:35:38 AM
The positive thing, as far as I can see, is that the complications which cause death are mostly handleable with the right equipment. Of course, some people die with intensive care, but I'm sure I've read that most get through, even those with preexisting conditions. The immediate problem is that there aren't  enough respirators and other, more advanced, apparatus, not enough intensive care beds.

What I'm leading to is this. Vaccine or no, heard immunity or no, by next winter, there must be a way of manufacturing enough of the required pieces of equipment. When the second wave lets rip, it should be far less fatal, our reaction should be far less chaotic.

Take care, Poul, there's still a load of music to be explored! We need you here.

Quote from: vandermolen on March 18, 2020, 10:43:26 PM
Thank you PD.
Although as a technophobe I'm not looking forward to it.

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 18, 2020, 03:17:32 PM
So, no banishment (during classes) then?  Perhaps he could help to provide some needed levity/tension-relief?  After all, laughter is the best medicine.   ;)

Good luck and let us know how it goes.

PD

Quote from: (: premont :) on March 19, 2020, 04:39:38 AM
Thanks for your kind and encouraging words Howard. I am very cautious at the moment, and don't go out other than for shopping food - and always keeping distance. The only person with whom I am in close contact is my wife. I do not even see my two sons now.

Quote from: aligreto on March 19, 2020, 06:03:26 AM

As you may or may not know, we Irish have a somewhat peculiar sense of humour. We use it to lighten our load in times of crises.

With great respect to my UK friends and neighbours, one joke going around here at the moment goes like this:

there are five people on an endangered aeroplane with only four parachutes. Those people are Trump, the Pope, Boris Johnson, Leo Varadkar [Irish Prime Minister] and a 9 year old boy. Trump grabs the first parachute saying I am too important, I need to save America and then jumps. The Pope declares that he is needed to save the Catholic Church, grabs another one and jumps. Boris declares that he is also very much needed, is the most intelligent man in the UK, grabs another one and jumps. Leo turns to the young boy and says I am a lot older than you, I have lived a good life so you take the last one. The young boy answers that it is OK, there are still two parachutes left as the most intelligent man in the UK has just grabbed my schoolbag.

You see, we Irish are no respecters of authority or reputation.  ;D

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 19, 2020, 06:28:22 AM
Thank you for making me laugh!   ;) :)

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 19, 2020, 06:04:45 AM
Warm thoughts!

Quote from: aligreto on March 19, 2020, 06:03:26 AM

As you may or may not know, we Irish have a somewhat peculiar sense of humour. We use it to lighten our load in times of crises.

With great respect to my UK friends and neighbours, one joke going around here at the moment goes like this:

there are five people on an endangered aeroplane with only four parachutes. Those people are Trump, the Pope, Boris Johnson, Leo Varadkar [Irish Prime Minister] and a 9 year old boy. Trump grabs the first parachute saying I am too important, I need to save America and then jumps. The Pope declares that he is needed to save the Catholic Church, grabs another one and jumps. Boris declares that he is also very much needed, is the most intelligent man in the UK, grabs another one and jumps. Leo turns to the young boy and says I am a lot older than you, I have lived a good life so you take the last one. The young boy answers that it is OK, there are still two parachutes left as the most intelligent man in the UK has just grabbed my schoolbag.

You see, we Irish are no respecters of authority or reputation.  ;D

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 19, 2020, 08:07:14 AM
A nice variant on a joke I've been told before; thanks!

Quote from: greg on March 19, 2020, 07:58:22 AM
So yeah... this might be why it's so bad in Italy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mNMdg4morQs

This channel is sponsored by the Chinese government. If that guy had a virus then seems to be a deliberate attempt of murdering Europeans by using their own political correctness against them.

Quote from: vandermolen on March 17, 2020, 11:00:16 PM
I hope that you and your dad remains safe and well. I'm sure that Finland will deal,with this crisis as effectively as anywhere.

Quote from: Daverz on March 19, 2020, 09:14:01 AM
People are legitimately anxious about this pandemic, but for you it's just an opportunity for some childish race-baiting?

Quote from: aligreto on March 19, 2020, 08:53:14 AM
A Universal Truth   ;D

Quote from: drogulus on March 19, 2020, 10:58:24 AM
     I'm following the French lockdown, and the word is that it's likely to be extended beyond 15 days or whatever it is now, initially by another 15 days. Our Paris hotel is shuttered and our contact Laure sent a form letter that casts doubt that it will reopen soon.

We regret to inform you that Chouette Hotel is closed for an indefinite period.

We can respond to your requests as soon as the establishment reopens.

We ask you, Madam, Sir, to accept our apologies for this situation.

     I don't think a trip in May is going to happen.

      OK, off to Air France........

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 19, 2020, 11:07:34 AM
Sorry to hear about your trip; perhaps things will be radically better by then?  Alas, if you're concerned about getting your deposits/refunds back..... :(

Quote from: drogulus on March 19, 2020, 11:23:34 AM
     No, I don't want money back, I'm interested in how/when the trip will take place.

     (https://www.parisdise.com/taste/dine_paris/6e/fouet1.jpg)

   

Quote from: aligreto on March 19, 2020, 06:03:26 AM

As you may or may not know, we Irish have a somewhat peculiar sense of humour. We use it to lighten our load in times of crises.

With great respect to my UK friends and neighbours, one joke going around here at the moment goes like this:

there are five people on an endangered aeroplane with only four parachutes. Those people are Trump, the Pope, Boris Johnson, Leo Varadkar [Irish Prime Minister] and a 9 year old boy. Trump grabs the first parachute saying I am too important, I need to save America and then jumps. The Pope declares that he is needed to save the Catholic Church, grabs another one and jumps. Boris declares that he is also very much needed, is the most intelligent man in the UK, grabs another one and jumps. Leo turns to the young boy and says I am a lot older than you, I have lived a good life so you take the last one. The young boy answers that it is OK, there are still two parachutes left as the most intelligent man in the UK has just grabbed my schoolbag.

You see, we Irish are no respecters of authority or reputation.  ;D

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 19, 2020, 11:26:59 AM
Can you change your reservations without incurring lots of big penalties?  Like for the plane tickets?

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 19, 2020, 04:59:02 AM
What kind of technical support do you have from your school in terms of training?  And/or perhaps some of the gents on hear who have done it in the past might be able to help you?

You can do it Jeffrey!  We have faith in you!   :)

PD

Quote from: vandermolen on March 19, 2020, 12:00:48 PM
Thank you PD for your inspiriting and kind words. And thanks to others for comments.
Frankly I regard the whole 'online, virtual-reality lesson' as a total nightmare. It has caused me more stress than the Cronavirus. Like many others, I suspect, I hardly slept last night. Having said that there is a very supportive IT team in the school and they have told me that when I deliver my first online lesson next week I can do it from the school with their support which is very reassuring. I went for two days in a row to the training session after school. What usually happens is that I cannot get into the laptop in the first place and by the time that it finally lets me in the lesson moves on to a place where I no longer understanding anything that is going on and just stare blankly at the screen. For the younger staff, of course, the whole thing is a walk in the park. Anyway, we shall see and thanks for the support and advice which is much appreciated.

To add to all this it it my daughter's birthday on Monday and we have invited her (we live in a quiet village) to celebrate. However, she insists that we go up to London. She lives in West Dulwich which is one of the worst areas for Coronavirus infection. I explaned to her that this was like being invited for a birthday celebration in one of the main plague villages during the period of The Black Death. This at least amused some of my colleagues at work.

Quote from: JBS on March 19, 2020, 12:04:16 PM
Then you definitely need that cat around to keep the students occupied.

Stay healthy and happy birthday to your daughter!

Quote from: Florestan on March 19, 2020, 12:43:15 PM
From Romania with love, to all GMGers!

Stay safe, obey all rules and restrictions imposed, keep strict hygienic rules and be optimistic! I wish you and all your loved ones and fellow countrymen all best of luck and very good health in these hard times!

As for myself, I'll isolate myself as much as I can together with my 79yo father which I can't leave because he can't move out from his bed and one of my maternal aunts 83yo who lives next door to us. My wife, 7yo son and my inlaws are isolated in a county 2 hours drive away fron Bucharest where no case has been reported as of yet.  As of yet the disease spreads in Romania at a moderate pace and I hope the trend will not going to
explode. The measures taken by the government proves quite effective, the irresponsibility of some people notwithstanding.

I'm sure that we all will get over this bloody crisis! May God and our own civic sense and respobsibility proect us alll!

Quote from: Florestan on March 19, 2020, 12:53:56 PM
And as someone said above, now is the right time to read those books and listen to those musics it was high time to read and listen to!

Quote from: Florestan on March 19, 2020, 01:14:58 PM
Also an opportunity for all of us to think about and ponder our own unavoidable mortality and order our priorities in this short life we're alloted.

Carpe diem!

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 19, 2020, 12:46:23 PM
God bless you & yours, brother!

Quote from: greg on March 19, 2020, 12:59:25 PM
Helllll yes.  8)
Turn this into a opportunity.  0:)

Though I do feel bad for the extroverts out there who don't many hobbies at home. Good luck, I guess.

Quote from: vandermolen on March 19, 2020, 12:00:48 PM
Thank you PD for your inspiriting and kind words. And thanks to others for comments.
Frankly I regard the whole 'online, virtual-reality lesson' as a total nightmare. It has caused me more stress than the Coronavirus. Like many others, I suspect, I hardly slept last night. Having said that there is a very supportive IT team in the school and they have told me that when I deliver my first online lesson next week I can do it from the school with their support which is very reassuring. I went for two days in a row to the training session after school. What usually happens is that I cannot get into the laptop in the first place and by the time that it finally lets me in the lesson moves on to a place where I no longer understanding anything that is going on and just stare blankly at the screen. For the younger staff, of course, the whole thing is a walk in the park. Anyway, we shall see and thanks for the support and advice which is much appreciated.

To add to all this it it my daughter's birthday on Monday and we have invited her (we live in a quiet village) here to celebrate. However, she insists that we go up to London. She lives in West Dulwich which is one of the worst areas for Coronavirus infection. I explaned to her that this was like being invited for a birthday celebration in one of the main plague villages during the period of The Black Death. This at least amused some of my colleagues at work.

Quote"The outbreak of the respiratory virus began in China and was quickly spread around the world by air travelers, who ran high fevers. In the United States, it was first detected in Chicago, and 47 days later the World Health Organization declared a pandemic. By then it was too late: 110 million Americans were expected to become ill, leading to 7.7 million hospitalized and 586,000 dead.

That scenario, code-named "Crimson Contagion," was simulated by the Trump administration's Department of Health and Human Services in a series of exercises that ran from last January to August.

The simulation's sobering results — contained in a draft report dated October 2019 that has not previously been reported — drove home just how underfunded, underprepared and uncoordinated the federal government would be for a life-or-death battle with a virus for which no treatment existed."

Quote from: Baron Scarpia on March 19, 2020, 07:39:47 PM
If you can believe it was laid off just before Christmas (company financially failing) found a better job, sold the house in California, rented a house in Houston, Texas where I will be working, am on payroll pending relocation. Movers are supposed to come on April 2, My wife and I had planned to drive with our young child to Houston, and did I mention my wife is pregnant?

Now, with confirmed cases growing exponentially in California, the governor has issued a "stay at home order," and effective next week we have no home. We are wondering if we will find travel forbidden, or travel hotels along the route shuttered.

Being stuck at home, watching Netflix and nervously checking dwindling checking accounts and 401Ks seems like paradise to me. I fully expect I could be dead before a month has past, and that is not the worst scenario I can imagine.

Quote from: Symphonic Addict on March 19, 2020, 08:22:28 PM
My only contribution to this thread is this: my opinion about this virus is that it was intentionally created and spread. I don't believe that it came from an animal origin by mutation. The real rulers have the worst intentions towards people, and I'm not mentioning presidents or kings. I suppose you can guess who they are.


I really hope all of you stay safe in your respective countries. I wish you all the best including your families.

Quote from: Symphonic Addict on March 19, 2020, 08:22:28 PM
My only contribution to this thread is this: my opinion about this virus is that it was intentionally created and spread. I don't believe that it came from an animal origin by mutation. The real rulers have the worst intentions towards people, and I'm not mentioning presidents or kings. I suppose you can guess who they are.
.

Quote from: drogulus on March 19, 2020, 10:58:24 AM
     I'm following the French lockdown, and the word is that it's likely to be extended beyond 15 days or whatever it is now, initially by another 15 days. Our Paris hotel is shuttered and our contact Laure sent a form letter that casts doubt that it will reopen soon.

We regret to inform you that Chouette Hotel is closed for an indefinite period.

We can respond to your requests as soon as the establishment reopens.

We ask you, Madam, Sir, to accept our apologies for this situation.

     I don't think a trip in May is going to happen.

     OK, off to Air France........

     US and French travel restrictions permitting, I have months of rescheduling room at no additional cost.

Quote from: Florestan on March 19, 2020, 12:43:15 PM
From Romania with love, to all GMGers!

Stay safe, obey all rules and restrictions imposed, keep strict hygienic rules and be optimistic! I wish you and all your loved ones and fellow countrymen all best of luck and very good health in these hard times!

As for myself, I'll isolate myself as much as I can together with my 79yo father which I can't leave because he can't move out from his bed and one of my maternal aunts 83yo who lives next door to us. My wife, 7yo son and my inlaws are isolated in a county 2 hours drive away fron Bucharest where no case has been reported as of yet.  As of yet the disease spreads in Romania at a moderate pace and I hope the trend will not going to
explode. The measures taken by the government proves quite effective, the irresponsibility of some people notwithstanding.

I'm sure that we all will get over this bloody crisis! May God and our own civic sense and respobsibility proect us alll!

Quote from: vandermolen on March 19, 2020, 12:00:48 PM

To add to all this it it my daughter's birthday on Monday and we have invited her (we live in a quiet village) here to celebrate. However, she insists that we go up to London. She lives in West Dulwich which is one of the worst areas for Coronavirus infection. I explaned to her that this was like being invited for a birthday celebration in one of the main plague villages during the period of The Black Death. This at least amused some of my colleagues at work.

Quote from: aligreto on March 20, 2020, 02:44:16 AM
Out of concern for you my friend I would say do not go, Jeffrey.

Quote from: Irons on March 20, 2020, 01:06:17 AM
My son works for a large company in the travel industry. He had someone on the phone yesterday demanding immediate refund of deposit paid for expensive holiday. It was explained to the client that the company were working through £millions worth of deposits which takes time and eventually his money will be returned. With this my son received a blast  - My business has gone. Today, I sacked a dozen employees and I am ruined - I want my (deleted) money NOW!

Quote from: Irons on March 20, 2020, 01:06:17 AM
My son works for a large company in the travel industry. He had someone on the phone yesterday demanding immediate refund of deposit paid for expensive holiday. It was explained to the client that the company were working through £millions worth of deposits which takes time and eventually his money will be returned. With this my son received a blast  - My business has gone. Today, I sacked a dozen employees and I am ruined - I want my (deleted) money NOW!

Quote from: JBS on March 12, 2020, 07:03:50 PM
It seems appropriate to have  a dedicated thread to COVID 19, given it's a worldwide event.
So here it is.

Quote from: Baron Scarpia on March 19, 2020, 07:39:47 PM
If you can believe it was laid off just before Christmas (company financially failing) found a better job, sold the house in California, rented a house in Houston, Texas where I will be working, am on payroll pending relocation. Movers are supposed to come on April 2, My wife and I had planned to drive with our young child to Houston, and did I mention my wife is pregnant?

Now, with confirmed cases growing exponentially in California, the governor has issued a "stay at home order," and effective next week we have no home. We are wondering if we will find travel forbidden, or travel hotels along the route shuttered.

Being stuck at home, watching Netflix and nervously checking dwindling checking accounts and 401Ks seems like paradise to me. I fully expect I could be dead before a month has past, and that is not the worst scenario I can imagine.

Quote from: Judith on March 20, 2020, 05:11:49 AM
Without being political, just wondering how you are all coping?
Must admit, getting me down. Not just the chance of catching illness itself but feel that life is on hold. No concerts, history talks, museums etc.
Am I feeling sorry for myself or anyone else feeling like I do?

Quote from: pjme on March 20, 2020, 05:55:51 AM
Hi Judith, these are indeed very difficult and totally unusual & intimidating times. It is no wonder that we are feeling down. Especially since we don't know (and cannot predict) how long this crisis will last, nor how devastating its results will be.
So, let's focus on the positive aspects: the will to help, the courage and creativity of those who are already searching for solutions, the courage of all the people in the medical sector.
And do stay in contact with friends and family. And do post your thoughts here. Suggest music, talk about composers , musicians and performers, recordings.
Keep cool and stay positive!
Peter

Quote from: Judith on March 20, 2020, 05:11:49 AM
Without being political, just wondering how you are all coping?
Must admit, getting me down. Not just the chance of catching illness itself but feel that life is on hold. No concerts, history talks, museums etc.
Am I feeling sorry for myself or anyone else feeling like I do?

Quote from: Que on March 20, 2020, 02:51:38 AM
In the Netherlands, and I believe some other EU-countries, the travel industry has stopped refunding customers to avoid a total finacial collapse and are issuing vouchers instead.

Q

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 20, 2020, 04:59:20 AM
Wow!   :o :(  Is your son afraid of losing his job?  Even temporarily?

Quote from: greg on March 20, 2020, 06:47:41 AM
There still seems to be no evidence of it affecting other animals. So just bats and humans? That's really weird.

Quote from: Judith on March 20, 2020, 05:11:49 AM
Without being political, just wondering how you are all coping?
Must admit, getting me down. Not just the chance of catching illness itself but feel that life is on hold. No concerts, history talks, museums etc.
Am I feeling sorry for myself or anyone else feeling like I do?

Quote from: Baron Scarpia on March 19, 2020, 07:39:47 PM
If you can believe it was laid off just before Christmas (company financially failing) found a better job, sold the house in California, rented a house in Houston, Texas where I will be working, am on payroll pending relocation. Movers are supposed to come on April 2, My wife and I had planned to drive with our young child to Houston, and did I mention my wife is pregnant?

Now, with confirmed cases growing exponentially in California, the governor has issued a "stay at home order," and effective next week we have no home. We are wondering if we will find travel forbidden, or travel hotels along the route shuttered.

Being stuck at home, watching Netflix and nervously checking dwindling checking accounts and 401Ks seems like paradise to me. I fully expect I could be dead before a month has past, and that is not the worst scenario I can imagine.

Quote from: mc ukrneal on March 19, 2020, 07:50:56 PM
Whoa. I feel for YOU! I can only say that I hope you (and your family) stay safe and healthy.

Quote from: Iota on March 20, 2020, 07:58:32 AM
Oh boy, that sounds terrible, I hope a manageable way through it appears. Best of luck!

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 20, 2020, 06:11:59 AM
((distant hugs))

Quote from: Baron Scarpia on March 19, 2020, 07:39:47 PM
If you can believe it was laid off just before Christmas (company financially failing) found a better job, sold the house in California, rented a house in Houston, Texas where I will be working, am on payroll pending relocation. Movers are supposed to come on April 2, My wife and I had planned to drive with our young child to Houston, and did I mention my wife is pregnant?

Now, with confirmed cases growing exponentially in California, the governor has issued a "stay at home order," and effective next week we have no home. We are wondering if we will find travel forbidden, or travel hotels along the route shuttered.

Being stuck at home, watching Netflix and nervously checking dwindling checking accounts and 401Ks seems like paradise to me. I fully expect I could be dead before a month has past, and that is not the worst scenario I can imagine.

Quote from: Baron Scarpia on March 19, 2020, 07:39:47 PM
If you can believe it was laid off just before Christmas (company financially failing) found a better job, sold the house in California, rented a house in Houston, Texas where I will be working, am on payroll pending relocation. Movers are supposed to come on April 2, My wife and I had planned to drive with our young child to Houston, and did I mention my wife is pregnant?

Now, with confirmed cases growing exponentially in California, the governor has issued a "stay at home order," and effective next week we have no home. We are wondering if we will find travel forbidden, or travel hotels along the route shuttered.

Being stuck at home, watching Netflix and nervously checking dwindling checking accounts and 401Ks seems like paradise to me. I fully expect I could be dead before a month has past, and that is not the worst scenario I can imagine.

Quote from: Iota on March 20, 2020, 08:28:33 AM
And yes, in answer to Judith's point, I think a large part of the battle against this thing will be psychological one, both individual and group. If a feeling of hope can be engendered/stumbled upon, I think it will impact behaviour at all levels in a significant way, right up to government. Hope you can find a bit of buoyancy, Judith.

Quote from: DaveF on March 20, 2020, 07:53:57 AM
Hi Judith,

Trying to keep going, as we all are, but agree it's deeply distressing and unsettling, and hard not to feel sorry for oneself.  I'm in the fortunate position of being in excellent health, my 60 years notwithstanding, having a guaranteed salary from my local government job and a house with no mortgage (albeit a second one that I'm trying to sell, with not surprisingly a complete lack of interest at the moment), so what it's like for those poor souls who have financial pressures on top of health worries I can't imagine.  Here in rural South Wales we haven't even seen the level of panic buying that has occurred elsewhere - the supermarket shelves are generally well-stocked, with only one or two shortage areas.  Although it has certainly been a day of "panic borrowing" in the library where I work.

I'm not that bothered about actually catching the virus - at least that would get it done with, and I'm fairly confident I'd survive without a problem.  The worry and concern spring more from the suspicion/certainty that those in charge have very little idea what is going on (and why should they? - it's never gone on before) and from the dread of being dependent for our future on the goodwill and selflessness of our fellow human beings, which with many notable exceptions seem to be generally wanting.  I cast around for the good news stories that I'm sure are out there, but there almost seems to be a conspiracy of silence - I read somewhere that new cases in China have fallen away almost to nothing, but try finding that statistic anywhere online.  Another small bit is that a cousin of mine in London, aged 39, has been suffering from it for 2 days and already feels much better.

Schubert's the man - had it worst of all and kept singing and dancing.

DF

Quote from: DaveF on March 20, 2020, 07:53:57 AM
Schubert's the man - had it worst of all and kept singing and dancing.

Quote from: aligreto on March 20, 2020, 06:38:34 AM
There is nothing unusual in what you are feeling. We all want things just to be normal again. That is a natural reaction in these kind of circumstances. You, like everybody, are looking for reassurance. Listen to the advice and follow the correct hygiene and social distancing protocols and stay safe. That is our number one priority. This will pass but it will take time, care, mental strength and the cooperation of all to get us through this. Be as strong as you can.

Quote from: pjme on March 20, 2020, 05:55:51 AM
Hi Judith, these are indeed very difficult and totally unusual & intimidating times. It is no wonder that we are feeling down. Especially since we don't know (and cannot predict) how long this crisis will last, nor how devastating its results will be.
So, let's focus on the positive aspects: the will to help, the courage and creativity of those who are already searching for solutions, the courage of all the people in the medical sector.
And do stay in contact with friends and family. And do post your thoughts here. Suggest music, talk about composers , musicians and performers, recordings.
Keep cool and stay positive!
Peter

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 20, 2020, 08:57:04 AM
Oh, boy!  Trying to think of what you could do?  Perhaps contact 1) a state agency to tell them what your predicament is and what you could do?  2) Maybe talk to your real estate agent and see if you could rent your home for a while from new owners (which leads me to wonder whether or not they could even move in due to the new restrictions?) 3) Keep in contact with your new employer regarding everything going on.

Warm wishes to you and hang in there!

PD

Quote from: Que on March 20, 2020, 05:09:55 AM

3. When cases are numerous and widely spread, containment can only be achieved by a total lockdown - literally locking up people in their homes.

Quote from: Florestan on March 20, 2020, 02:50:01 AM
You should stay home, Jeffrey, and so should your daughter. It would be unpleasant but safe.

Romania update: 277 confirmed cases, 0 deaths, 25 cured.

Quote from: Florestan on March 19, 2020, 12:43:15 PM
From Romania with love, to all GMGers!

Stay safe, obey all rules and restrictions imposed, keep strict hygienic rules and be optimistic! I wish you and all your loved ones and fellow countrymen all best of luck and very good health in these hard times!

As for myself, I'll isolate myself as much as I can together with my 79yo father which I can't leave because he can't move out from his bed and one of my maternal aunts 83yo who lives next door to us. My wife, 7yo son and my inlaws are isolated in a county 2 hours drive away fron Bucharest where no case has been reported as of yet.  As of yet the disease spreads in Romania at a moderate pace and I hope the trend will not going to
explode. The measures taken by the government proves quite effective, the irresponsibility of some people notwithstanding.

I'm sure that we all will get over this bloody crisis! May God and our own civic sense and respobsibility proect us alll!

Quote from: vandermolen on March 20, 2020, 11:02:55 AM
This is a popular thread isn't it? And probably necessary at this time. All thanks to Jeffrey (the other one) for starting it.

Quote from: Holden on March 18, 2020, 11:11:09 PM
I'm assuming that your school has a Learning Management System (LMS) and this is how they will remotely deliver the program. Our LMS is set up at the beginning of the school year with the whole program already there. It means that staff, students and parents can access it. It includes lessons, assessment, communications and the ability to submit work electronically.

I've been asked to set up work for the students in a specific year level on a week by week basis, just in case the Government decides we should close. All I had to do was create a small vodcast showing students what they had to do by pointing to the parts of the system where they could get the already set up programs.

If your school doesn't have an LMS then yes, you might easily have a tech nightmare.

Quote from: pjme on March 20, 2020, 11:12:20 AM
Indeed, it helps to get away from cooking, cleaning, reading, browsing through cds, checking phones, watching TV...
I try to walk regularly & I made a 2 hour bike tour with a friend. Fresh air!

Kindest regards!

Quote from: Florestan on March 20, 2020, 10:46:29 AM
Judith, think how fortunate we all here are: our hobbies (music, literature, fine arts) are actually tailor-made for such dire times and situations and should make our social isolation easier to endure. Concentrate on whatever you like and forget everything else. Better times are ahead.

Quote from: pjme on March 20, 2020, 11:12:20 AM
I made a 2 hour bike tour with a friend. Fresh air!

Quote from: JBS on March 20, 2020, 10:58:42 AM
For those of us in the US:

Animal Planet channel is running an all day marathon of Too Cute. Reality TV show starring newborn kitties and puppies as they grow in their first year.

Quote from: Florestan on March 20, 2020, 12:15:07 PM
Wait a minute! Everywhere in Europe authorities urge people to stay home, stay home, stay home and not get out unless for food or drugs and yet you take a 2 hour bike tour?  :o :o :o

Quote from: pjme on March 20, 2020, 01:26:10 PM
Yes, the government encourages people to go for walks and/or bicycle rides, do sports, run... BUT: only with your direct family or the people who live in the same house. 1 friend is allowed, if all the other safety measures are respected: keep 1.5 m distance at all times, do not pick nick, barbecue etc. Use tissues to blow your nose etc.

Quote from: Irons on March 20, 2020, 02:14:08 PM


I have this feeling that when eventually this is all over we will all be poorer but just maybe the world will be a better place. It will be different that is certain.

Quote from: drogulus on March 20, 2020, 02:41:32 PM
     If it's a better place it won't be poorer for long. _{(http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/smiley.gif)}

Quote from: Judith on March 20, 2020, 05:11:49 AM
Without being political, just wondering how you are all coping?
Must admit, getting me down. Not just the chance of catching illness itself but feel that life is on hold. No concerts, history talks, museums etc.
Am I feeling sorry for myself or anyone else feeling like I do?

Quote from: Rinaldo on March 20, 2020, 11:32:29 AM
I went to see an apartment that I'm interested in renting and had an eerie, although pleasant walk through the oldest parts of Prague – the Lesser Quarter and the Old Town, connected by the Charles Bridge. Usually bursting with tourists, the streets were expectedly deserted. I had to stop and shoot a short video (https://twitter.com/janchor/status/1241074940155252739) as the silence reminded of the 2002 flood, when I was working on the cleanup and cars and tourists were prohibited to enter the Old Town.

It was a nice little moment of respite. Stay safe, you wonderful bunch of people!

Quote from: Irons on March 20, 2020, 07:16:50 AM
Last Monday the company purchased 200 laptops and instructed staff to work from home. I think the whole world is afraid of losing their job, P.

Quote from: JBS on March 20, 2020, 10:43:46 AM
I second PD's second point, at least.  Even if they weren't planning to move in immediately, any renovation plans they had must be on hold.
And that's assuming their own financial position hasn't suffered severely!

Best of luck, and stay healthy, all four of you.

Quote from: vandermolen on March 20, 2020, 11:16:45 AM
I've had more support from the IT team at the school and also kind colleagues. I even managed to communicate with my classes via the IT online system, where we can see each other (like a Skype call). as we were all  in the same room it sounded like a lot of screaming Daleks from Dr Who trying to communicate, with continuous loud echoes. Still. As Lao Tse said 'The Journey of 1000 Miles starts with one step'.

Quote from: Rinaldo on March 20, 2020, 11:32:29 AM
I went to see an apartment that I'm interested in renting and had an eerie, although pleasant walk through the oldest parts of Prague – the Lesser Quarter and the Old Town, connected by the Charles Bridge. Usually bursting with tourists, the streets were expectedly deserted. I had to stop and shoot a short video (https://twitter.com/janchor/status/1241074940155252739) as the silence reminded of the 2002 flood, when I was working on the cleanup and cars and tourists were prohibited to enter the Old Town.

It was a nice little moment of respite. Stay safe, you wonderful bunch of people!

Quote from: pjme on March 20, 2020, 01:26:10 PM
Yes, the government encourages people to go for walks and/or bicycle rides, do sports, run... BUT: only with your direct family or the people who live in the same house. 1 friend is allowed, if all the other safety measures are respected: keep 1.5 m distance at all times, do not pick nick, barbecue etc. Use tissues to blow your nose etc.

Quote from: Marc on March 20, 2020, 11:00:00 PM
Yep, this Corona virus is nothing special, just the elderly and the weak will die. So what's new? :(

Sad.

Quote from: 71 dB on March 21, 2020, 12:42:18 AM
Other viruses also kill elderly and the weak, but at least we have methods like vaccination and medicine to deal with them. Corona virus is "special", because the treatments don't exist and most people don't have functioning immune system yet so the elderly and the weak fill fast the hospitals requiring intensive care and the whole healthcare system is in danger of collapsing.

Quote from: Florestan on March 21, 2020, 12:54:06 AM
Imo this lady is absolutely right.  :)

https://www.youtube.com/v/H7_wvQHMGOI

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 20, 2020, 03:09:12 PM
I know, I know....just still hard to hear.  I'm glad that he still has a job though.  Stores have closed (hopefully temporarily) around here.  We are, how do I say this, "proud" of being supportive of our local businesses around here (at least a good chunk of the local population is), so it's hard to say, but I think that they are doing the right thing by voluntarily closing; the question being though:  will they be able to survive?  Can they and/or will they try to still pay their employees as time goes on? 

PD

Quote from: 71 dB on March 21, 2020, 01:07:07 AM
"What, have I got a band in my house? I can't read music!"
"Now our children will find out how dumb we are."

:laugh:

Quote from: Marc on March 21, 2020, 12:58:17 AM
I know, Poju.
Which, to me, makes this an entirely different situation.
I've been trying to explain the same to other people, too. They keep shrugging their shoulders and saying: it's just panic for nothing. I'm not gonna stay home when I don't want to.
I'm very unhappy with these 'nay' sayers, especially when they neglect the advices and regulations (whilst others do their utmost to obey), and also try to convince other people to neglect the problem, too. Because things aren't going all that well in this country.

Quote from: Irons on March 21, 2020, 01:10:18 AM
A small business would not last five minutes, P. They would sack their staff and then go bust. The UK Government are taking a massive gamble with essentially paying the workforce themselves. A policy that Lenin would be proud of. They are trying to see out the crises before the economy collapses completely but I worry that this is unsustainable for any length of time.
The news from Italy just gets worse. They have now overtaken China in deaths.

You make a good point shopping locally. The big supermarkets have been hit by a swarm of locusts. We did feel a sense of panic to be confronted by empty shelves. We are now shopping locally and managing fine but have to be early.   

Edit: https://youtu.be/XzdRs9LPj2M

Quote from: Irons on March 20, 2020, 02:14:08 PM
All pubs, restaurants and gyms in the UK to close tonight and remained closed until further notice.

The new Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak - who is playing a blinder - after consulting Unions and CBI has announced that to save employees being sacked the Government will subsidise their pay to the tune of 80%.

I have this feeling that when eventually this is all over we will all be poorer but just maybe the world will be a better place. It will be different that is certain.

Quote from: Mandryka on March 21, 2020, 03:19:06 AM
1. The strategy of widespread community testing and isolation which has been happening in South Korea looks as though it's successful at flattening the curve. I think it's in line with WHO recommendations. Why aren't the UK doing it?

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 20, 2020, 03:22:07 PM
Hey, progress!   ;D

And thanks for making me laugh too...that's very important right now.   :)

PD

Quote from: vandermolen on March 21, 2020, 04:35:10 AM
Good to know!

The dispute with my wife as to whether or not she should continue to go to gym (her 'Yes', myself and daughter 'No') has come to an end as the gym has closed down! The Times today had a page of advice for exercising at home. They suggest for over 70s (which I'm not) to practice standing on one leg for 20 seconds or more. I can manage about four seconds. But the good news is that you are allowed to hang onto the wash basin to prevent you toppling over on to the floor.

Quote from: Mandryka on March 21, 2020, 03:19:06 AM
Just a couple of questions about the UK, though they may well apply to other places, people may know the answer.

1. The strategy of widespread community testing and isolation which has been happening in South Korea looks as though it's successful at flattening the curve. I think it's in line with WHO recommendations. Why aren't the UK doing it?

2. It looks to me as though the government are following a model which says, basically, reduce people's freedom as the number of new cases increases -- so we can expect shops to close, and parks etc, over the next couple of weeks, and maybe the police will start to stop and ask people why they're on the streets, with associated fines. If I'm right, has the model been published?
mandryka

Quote from: vandermolen on March 21, 2020, 04:35:10 AM
Good to know!

The dispute with my wife as to whether or not she should continue to go to gym (her 'Yes', myself and daughter 'No') has come to an end as the gym has closed down! The Times today had a page of advice for exercising at home. They suggest for over 70s (which I'm not) to practice standing on one leg for 20 seconds or more. I can manage about four seconds. But the good news is that you are allowed to hang onto the wash basin to prevent you toppling over on to the floor.

Quote from: Spineur on March 21, 2020, 04:40:08 AM

Quote from: Que on March 21, 2020, 04:52:10 AM
Asian countires were far more alert and better prepared, because they were affected by the SARS epidemic and learned important lessons from that. I'm afraid that Western "exceptionalism" also played a very negative role in this....
Trump still calls this the "Chinese virus"... Perhaps someone should try to explain to him that the virus doesn't care?

Coronavirus: What could the West learn from Asia? (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51970379)

Q

Quote from: Mandryka on March 21, 2020, 03:19:06 AM
Just a couple of questions about the UK, though they may well apply to other places, people may know the answer.

1. The strategy of widespread community testing and isolation which has been happening in South Korea looks as though it's successful at flattening the curve. I think it's in line with WHO recommendations. Why aren't the UK doing it?

Quote2. It looks to me as though the government are following a model which says, basically, reduce people's freedom as the number of new cases increases

Quote from: Que on March 21, 2020, 04:52:10 AM
Trump still calls this the "Chinese virus"... Perhaps someone should try to explain to him that the virus doesn't care?

Quote from: Florestan on March 21, 2020, 06:46:53 AM
Ask Boris Johnson.

A responsible government should reduce people's freedom long before the number of new cases increases; actually, if they do that early, the number of cases will increase nevertheless but not exponentially, and this is crucial. The idea is not to stop the epidemic, which is impossible, but to slow it down as much as possible, in order not to crush the medical system and to give scientists time to develop and test treatments and vaccins.

Quote from: Florestan on March 21, 2020, 06:52:08 AM
I beg to differ. If the Chinese authorities had taken the whole damn thing seriously when it started and imposed draconian restrictions right from the beginning, they would have contained it locally and it would haven't spread across the whole world, especially Europe. They didn't because of their bloody fucking communism allied with their bloody fucking nationalism --- and now we are all in deep shit. I'm sorry, but this is a Chinese virus --- as opposed to the so-called Spanish Flu, which was not Spanish at all.

Quote from: drogulus on March 21, 2020, 06:55:10 AM
     As of this morning, here are the totals for cases and deaths:

(https://i.imgur.com/nNsLFRV.png)

   

Quote from: drogulus on March 21, 2020, 06:55:10 AM
     As of this morning, here are the totals for cases and deaths:

(https://i.imgur.com/nNsLFRV.png)

   

Quote from: Mandryka on March 21, 2020, 07:04:27 AM
The problem is that testing is different in each country, so the number of detected cases is a different proportion of the number of actual cases in each state.

(Terrible English but you know what I mean!)

Quote from: Florestan on March 21, 2020, 06:52:08 AM
I beg to differ. If the Chinese authorities had taken the whole damn thing seriously when it started and imposed draconian restrictions right from the beginning, they would have contained it locally and it would haven't spread across the whole world, especially Europe. They didn't because of their bloody fucking communism allied with their bloody fucking nationalism --- and now we are all in deep shit. I'm sorry, but this is a Chinese virus --- as opposed to the so-called Spanish Flu, which was not Spanish at all.

Quote from: Mandryka on March 21, 2020, 06:58:23 AM
It's not so simple because you need the people to comply. Otherwise there'll be widespread civil disobedience. They will only comply when they "grok" the seriousness.

Quote from: Mandryka on March 21, 2020, 07:04:27 AM
The problem is that testing is different in each country, so the number of detected cases is a different proportion of the number of actual cases in each state.

Quote from: Mandryka
(Terrible English but you know what I mean!)

Quote from: Que on March 21, 2020, 07:36:29 AM
Off course, the virus originates in China and and the Chinese authorities bear a lot of responsibility for its spread.

Quotethe virus is not Chinese in the sense that it only affects China. The mistake that was made in the West is to think that it wouldn't affect us. Authorities outside of China, including the US, had indications in January that an alarming situation was developing in China.

Quote from: Mandryka on March 21, 2020, 07:04:27 AM
The problem is that testing is different in each country, so the number of detected cases is a different proportion of the number of actual cases in each state.

Quote from: JBS on March 21, 2020, 07:03:12 AM
Bear in mind that the Chinese figures assume
1)regional authorities in China are being honest with the national authorities
2) the national authorities ars being honest with the rest of the world.

Quote from: Florestan on March 21, 2020, 07:45:35 AM
The number of officially confirmed cases in each country is most probably less than the total number of people infected.

Quote from: drogulus on March 21, 2020, 06:55:10 AM
     As of this morning, here are the totals for cases and deaths:

(https://i.imgur.com/nNsLFRV.png)

   

Quote from: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 21, 2020, 08:40:35 AM
Looking at this, what I'm wondering is: why does France have fewer cases than Germany, but almost 10X as many deaths?

Quote from: Mandryka on March 21, 2020, 07:04:27 AM
The problem is that testing is different in each country, so the number of detected cases is a different proportion of the number of actual cases in each state.

(Terrible English but you know what I mean!)

Quote from: vandermolen on March 21, 2020, 04:25:31 AM
Yes, I agree Lol. The world will be a different and, who knows, possibly better, kinder place with less pollution and people taking more care of each other. Maybe this is naively optimistic but who knows. An article in the Times today encouraged us to keep a written record of these extraordinary times.

Quote from: Mandryka on March 21, 2020, 06:42:05 AM
What adds insult to injury is that the tests we don't have in the UK are made in the UK.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/randox-ships-covid-19-test-kits-to-wuhan-hospitals-1.4190697?mode=amp

Quote from: Mandryka on March 21, 2020, 08:39:38 AM
Correct. And in some states most of the cases diagnosed are ones which are so serious they need medical intervention. So it's impossible to draw any conclusions from the ratio of deaths to detected cases.

Quote from: drogulus on March 21, 2020, 09:48:52 AM
      My niece is doing fine. She is a horsegirlcarthing, and she sent me a drawing of a Toyota Previa.

     

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 21, 2020, 10:57:57 AM
Pardon, but what is a horsegirlcarthing?

Quote from: 71 dB on March 21, 2020, 01:36:29 PM
I think the Corona virus situation is so bad in Italy and Spain because these are Catholic countries:

- Family is THE safety net in catholic cultures. Social distancing destroys that.
- Suicide is a sin in catholic cultures. Corona virus allows suicides to be labeled as Corona virus deaths.

I don't think if I am correct, but my brain came up with this theory.

Quote from: drogulus on March 21, 2020, 12:04:33 PM
     She would race tiny toy cars in the living room, then she partially transferred her allegiance to horses, but kept her car thing going. The Toyote Previa has been her spirit car since tinyhood, though other oddball cars play a role.

     (https://i.imgur.com/mkUdQuO.jpg)

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 21, 2020, 02:16:44 PM
Ah, does she also want to live in something like this?: 
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/5PMAOhVC-9Y/maxresdefault.jpg)

Quote from: drogulus on March 21, 2020, 02:29:19 PM
     I think she wants to semi-live in a barn.

      (https://i.imgur.com/RO3Oekg.jpg)

     

Quote from: 71 dB on March 21, 2020, 01:36:29 PM
I think the Corona virus situation is so bad in Italy and Spain because these are Catholic countries:

- Family is THE safety net in catholic cultures. Social distancing destroys that.
- Suicide is a sin in catholic cultures. Corona virus allows suicides to be labeled as Corona virus deaths.

I don't think if I am correct, but my brain came up with this theory.

Quote from: Rinaldo on March 21, 2020, 12:48:11 PM
If the people of Netherlands need some convincing, show them the numbers from Italy. 793 deaths today.

Quote from: Marc on March 21, 2020, 04:54:56 PM
All those figures are well-known here.
Despite that: crowded beaches (for the 'regular' first beach walk in spring), forests and trains today. Hey, it's a sunny weekend, f*ck the virus, f*ck the consequences, let's pretend nothing serious is going on.

(https://talkudil.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/struisvogel.jpg)

Look at my face!
Does my face look bovvered?

:(

My prediction: if this utterly stubborn behaviour here continues, it won't take long until the Dutch government opts for a total lockdown, with huge fines for not obeying. Thanks to all those mindless believers in personal 'freedom'.

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 21, 2020, 05:34:28 AM
Nice to see that Babar is staying fit!

Quote from: André on March 21, 2020, 06:41:45 PM
Friday Belgium sealed its border with the Netherlands, and police turned away dutch tourists away after widely condemned 'rampages' in beaches, parks, stores, while locals were consigned to their homes.

Quote from: Irons on March 22, 2020, 02:16:16 AM
My granddaughter has it! We now believe mum and both children caught the virus through a trip to Disney Paris three weeks ago. Thankfully a sky-high temperature didn't last long and she is now on the mend. Mum thought she and baby boy had a heavy cold but speaking to 111 they had the virus. She is now free to mix as she pleases but her husband, my son, as the only one of the family not to succumb is on lock down although he feels absolutely fine.

Quote from: Mandryka on March 22, 2020, 01:54:59 AM
Today's Sunday Times

(https://i.ibb.co/bBfKJ90/2-F7-FEA28-0-AFF-4167-808-C-861376352-B20.jpg)

Interesting article here

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/10-days-that-changed-britains-coronavirus-approach

Quote from: André on March 21, 2020, 06:41:45 PM
Friday Belgium sealed its border with the Netherlands, and police turned away dutch tourists away after widely condemned 'rampages' in beaches, parks, stores, while locals were consigned to their homes.

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 22, 2020, 05:51:11 AM
Supermarkets give workers raises amid coronavirus pandemic (https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/21/metro/stop-shop-gives-union-employees-raises-additional-sick-leave/)

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 22, 2020, 06:00:28 AM
I'm curious as to where you read about 'rampages as I hadn't seen any stories about that?

Best wishes,

PD

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 22, 2020, 06:02:05 AM
I did hear that over the news too.   :)

Best wishes,

PD

Quote from: Mandryka on March 22, 2020, 01:54:59 AM
Today's Sunday Times

(https://i.ibb.co/bBfKJ90/2-F7-FEA28-0-AFF-4167-808-C-861376352-B20.jpg)

Interesting article here

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/10-days-that-changed-britains-coronavirus-approach

Quote from: Kaga2 on March 22, 2020, 07:21:47 AM
I fear he is right, and that might actually be the best approach. It was not a good plan to follow, because it bet the farm on several unproven assumptions and was far too risky. I am glad they changed course. But that doesn't mean it couldn't turn out to have been right.

Several cases in town here. Including one MacDonald's worker, which is worrying.

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 22, 2020, 07:24:58 AM
Gotta break some eggs to make an omelette isn't really a good look, though.

Quote from: Que on March 22, 2020, 04:22:13 AM
Not surprising....

The Dutch government has been accused of a similar strategy: letting the virus run its course in a "controlled" way until the threshold for group immunity has been reached.

What is actually done now in most countries is supressing the rate in which the virus spreads. When - and as long as - the transmission rate is below 1:1, the total number of cases goes down. If successful, this will happen before the threshold of group immunity is reached. Although the build up of immunity is a gradual process: any level below the threshold would still contribute in slowing down another outbreak or next wave.

Q

Quote from: milk on March 22, 2020, 06:42:15 AM
I'm really confused about what's going on here in Japan. We were hit early with a few cases as there are usually many Chinese tourists here

Quote from: milk on March 22, 2020, 06:42:15 AM
I'm less worried about getting sick than economies and societies collapsing.

Quote from: drogulus on March 22, 2020, 07:42:13 AM
     Herd immunity is a natural consequence you don't need a strategy to implement. The herd, or what's left of it, will be immune unless a dramatic new way of treating the virus short circuits the process until we get a vaccine.

     Immunity and suppression should work together. Both will buy time.

Quote from: Marc on March 22, 2020, 08:28:52 AM
Yeah, of course. Herd immunity is a natural process, not a strategy. But if we let it just go like that, then the pressure on medicare and society gets far too high.

Quote from: SimonNZ on March 22, 2020, 09:12:07 AM
Emboldened wild animals venture into locked-down cities worldwide
Deer, raccoons, turkeys and other creatures have made their way into urban settings they might normally avoid (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/animals-cities-coronavirus-lockdowns-deer-raccoons)

Quote from: milk on March 22, 2020, 06:42:15 AM
I guess lots of people are in the same boat but how are we all going to survive financially? I'm less worried about getting sick than economies and societies collapsing.

Quote from: Irons on March 22, 2020, 02:16:16 AM
My granddaughter has it! We now believe mum and both children caught the virus through a trip to Disney Paris three weeks ago. Thankfully a sky-high temperature didn't last long and she is now on the mend. Mum thought she and baby boy had a heavy cold but speaking to 111 they had the virus. She is now free to mix as she pleases but her husband, my son, as the only one of the family not to succumb is on lock down although he feels absolutely fine.

Quote from: Mandryka on March 22, 2020, 10:23:24 AM
Yes, and in all fairness to the British government, they appear to be trying to deal with this.

You can't ask people to isolate themselves unless you give them the means to do so.

Quote from: André on March 22, 2020, 12:11:18 PM
Chancellor Angela Merkel in self-isolation. she received a vaccine (not for Covid-19) from a doctor who tested positive 2 days later.

Senator Rand Paul (USA) and singer Placido Domingo tested positive for Covid-19.

Quote from: SimonNZ on March 22, 2020, 02:26:57 PM
Is that the same Rand Paul who recently stalled passing of an economic rescue package by trying to attach nonsense amendments to it?

Quote from: SimonNZ on March 22, 2020, 05:53:57 PM
Our PM just announced we've got 48 hours to prepare for a 4-week full lockdown.

Quote from: drogulus on March 22, 2020, 07:42:13 AM
     Herd immunity is a natural consequence you don't need a strategy to implement. The herd, or what's left of it, will be immune unless a dramatic new way of treating the virus short circuits the process until we get a vaccine.

     Immunity and suppression should work together. Both will buy time.

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 22, 2020, 09:31:17 AM
"Let the jungle in!"

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 22, 2020, 04:08:08 AM
Oh, dear!  Glad to hear that everyone has recovered and hope that your son continues to be in good health.  Curious though:  how were they able to diagnose just over the phone?  Couldn't it have been something different?  Just a bit confused here....

Anyway, I wish all of you the best health!

PD

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 22, 2020, 04:08:08 AM
Oh, dear!  Glad to hear that everyone has recovered and hope that your son continues to be in good health.  Curious though:  how were they able to diagnose just over the phone?  Couldn't it have been something different?  Just a bit confused here....

Anyway, I wish all of you the best health!

PD

Quote from: Irons on March 21, 2020, 09:11:19 AM
I do not think it naive, Jeffrey. Working from home, when possible, needed a trigger this is a thunderbolt! Why would companies pay millions for offices in the capitals of the world when they can perform just as effectively with modern communications without? As you say, this would result in less pollution and stress.
I count myself a part of the lucky generation - missed the war, swinging sixties, cheap mortgages and excellent healthcare. Our kids have it much harder. So time for us to get through this, in one piece hopefully.

Quote from: vandermolen on March 22, 2020, 11:38:17 AM
Hope it all works out well Lol.

Quote from: milk on March 22, 2020, 06:42:15 AM
I'm really confused about what's going on here in Japan. We were hit early with a few cases as there are usually many Chinese tourists here. The schools have been closed since February and attractions are also closed. The government seems to think Japan has been spared and is talking about letting schools reopen (at their usual time as this has been an extended spring break or, actually, a spring break that started early). As a country, the the numbers are not like Italy or Spain. However, testing is fairly low, from what I understand, and the Osaka area, where I live, has seen a small spike. Experts have been asking the question of why Japan hasn't been hit harder. The answer is either a mishmash of conjecture or that Japan is about to see a second devastating wave. Meanwhile it looks like my job, university, is on hold until perhaps May. I really didn't take things seriously early on and now I'm panicking a little. I see many people out and about acting normally, even though schools and amusements are closed. For example, the playgrounds are quite crowded with kids (and I took my kid a few times I'm ashamed to admit). I'm worried that many of us here in Japan didn't take this seriously enough. I guess lots of people are in the same boat but how are we all going to survive financially? I'm less worried about getting sick than economies and societies collapsing.

Quote from: Baron Scarpia on March 22, 2020, 10:38:23 PM
Yes,

Quote from: drogulus on March 22, 2020, 08:43:07 AM
     That's how I see it. If you can arrange for deaths to occur later, there will be fewer deaths. Also, herd immunity is a matter of degree, so there are more and more people who got the virus, never developed symptoms and are no longer spreading it. The virus slows as it hits more individual firebreaks that were never tested. We don't know about them, there's no way of counting them.

Quote from: Irons on March 23, 2020, 12:25:21 AM
Thanks, Jeffrey. Watching my son closely - from afar - he is sharing accommodation with three people who had the virus. He even slept with his daughter while she had a raging temperature! He feels fine.

Quote from: pjme on March 23, 2020, 12:11:08 AM
Rather not, I'd say. Animals should not eat junk food, let alone plastic...

https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-news/belgium-all-news/science/97811/research-urban-junk-food-diet-is-bad-for-city-birds-microbiota-fibre-gut-bacteria-intestinal-flora/

During a visit to Indonesia (at least 20 years ago) I already saw deer, apes and raccoon like animals scavenge dustbins and plastic garbage bags...

Quote from: pjme on March 23, 2020, 12:11:08 AM
Rather not, I'd say. Animals should not eat junk food, let alone plastic...

https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-news/belgium-all-news/science/97811/research-urban-junk-food-diet-is-bad-for-city-birds-microbiota-fibre-gut-bacteria-intestinal-flora/

During a visit to Indonesia (at least 20 years ago) I already saw deer, apes and raccoon like animals scavenge dustbins and plastic garbage bags...