The most interesting aspect for me is not who will win but the runners and riders. Out of the remaining eight only two are "white middle-class males" and only one schooled at Eaton. Four each of female and male and the most interesting of all, the anti-woke Kemi Badenoch. I don't think she will win, probably drop out today, but I would love it for her to do so. It would turn the world upside down at the next General Election. To have Sir Kier Starmer leading (working class) Labour and a young woman of Nigerian extraction leading the toffs. ??? Starmer v Rishi will be a bore fest.
Quote from: Irons on July 13, 2022, 12:42:03 AM
.. and the most interesting of all, the anti-woke Kemi Badenoch. I don't think she will win, probably drop out today, but I would love it for her to do so. It would turn the world upside down at the next General Election.
Agree, that would be a very interesting development indeed.
Quote from: Irons on July 13, 2022, 12:42:03 AM
Starmer v Rishi will be a bore fest.
Yes indeed, both certainly seem unencumbered by a surfeit of charisma. Sunak particularly comes across as rather robotic to me, though presumably he'd be a steady hand on the economy at a time it's clearly needed.
Edit: Penny Mordaunt might also be a good post-Johnson option, if reports of her integrity/thoroughness are to be believed.
Quote from: Irons on July 13, 2022, 12:42:03 AM
It would turn the world upside down at the next General Election. To have Sir Kier Starmer leading (working class) Labour and a young woman of Nigerian extraction leading the toffs. ???
We had that here in Dallas in our mayoral race. A left-wing straight white man lawyer vs. a right-wing self-made young black man. The young black man won because people made incorrect assumptions about his politics based on his appearance, and ever since he has been engaged in petty squabbles with the rest of the government about how much credit/blame he gets for all the things that happen.
Nice thread idea Lol (maybe in the UK!)
I'm sorry that Jeremy Hunt was voted out - he would have been my favourite.
Any of the other candidates would be incomparably better than Johnson. I don't want Truss. I would choose Tugendhat or Sunak.
Please not Truss! The mere fact that her main backers were comedy grotesques, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nadine Dorries, should be a clear enough sign that she wouldn't be right for anybody vaguely normal surely.
I would not disagree with any posts above. For different reasons I don't want either Sunak or Truss. Hunt was interviewed on LBC on Sunday and I found him impressive, but that ship has sailed. Mordaunt is coming up on the inside. Her twin brother is transgender which is fine, I have no problem with it. But I do if it influences her policies. She asked Kemi Badenoch to define what a woman is? Kemi retorted "I know what a woman is, I am one! Well said young lady.
Quote from: Irons on July 14, 2022, 03:37:44 AM
I would not disagree with any posts above. For different reasons I don't want either Sunak or Truss. Hunt was interviewed on LBC on Sunday and I found him impressive, but that ship has sailed. Mordaunt is coming up on the inside. Her twin brother is transgender which is fine, I have no problem with it. But I do if it influences her policies. She asked Kemi Badenoch to define what a woman is? Kemi retorted "I know what a woman is, I am one! Well said young lady.
I think that Mordaunt might well win. The Johnson supporters will all campaign against Sunak. I read an article which said the Johnson could have been like a British Reagan - a charismatic personality, who left the detailed work to competent subordinates. Instead of that we ended up with the likes of the talentless Dorries and Rees Mogg, who were only appointed because they were Johnson acolytes.
Quote from: vandermolen on July 14, 2022, 04:39:18 AM
I think that Mordaunt might well win. The Johnson supporters will all campaign against Sunak. I read an article which said the Johnson could have been like a British Reagan - a charismatic personality, who left the detailed work to competent subordinates. Instead of that we ended up with the likes of the talentless Dorries and Rees Mogg, who were only appointed because they were Johnson acolytes.
Braverman bit the dust. To quote Agatha Christie "and then there were five".
100% agree Jeffrey. The Johnson administration could have worked. For all his faults he reached out to an electorate that traditionally hated Tory. As a figurehead with a competent team behind him, who knows. You are right, worked with Reagan but he was special maybe due to his non-political background ego did not weigh him down. Johnson has turned out to be a very clever fool and once his party and the general public realised this they could not wait to get rid of him, me included.
Quote from: ultralinear on July 14, 2022, 08:16:02 AM
I think what did for Johnson was the perception, which spread until it was almost universal, that he was taking the rest of us for fools.
The Brexit vote was, above all, a punch in the eye for what was perceived as an out-of-touch elite who for years had been shaping policy in their own interests at the expense of the public. I am not saying that was accurate, but that was the narrative. The issue of EU membership was almost incidental. By leading the Leave campaign, Johnson was presenting himself as an anti-establishment figure and the people's champion. Which swept him into power in 2019 with a thumping majority.
What made Partygate so toxic was not so much the parties themselves but the perception they fed, that once again the people now in power considered themselves not bound by the same rules as the suckers who put them there. No-one likes to be made a fool of.
All true. The one good thing he did not get away with it. Democracy, the system or whatever soon got rid. Without that who knows what would happen as the recent events in Sri Lanka prove.
Mordaunt has spooked the right of the Conservative Party. They have their tanks on her lawn. Lord Frost stuck the knife in yesterday and today's edition of the Daily Mail is full of negative stuff on her.
Quote from: ultralinear on July 14, 2022, 08:16:02 AM
I think what did for Johnson was the perception, which spread until it was almost universal, that he was taking the rest of us for fools.
The Brexit vote was, above all, a punch in the eye for what was perceived as an out-of-touch elite who for years had been shaping policy in their own interests at the expense of the public. I am not saying that was accurate, but that was the narrative. The issue of EU membership was almost incidental. By leading the Leave campaign, Johnson was presenting himself as an anti-establishment figure and the people's champion. Which swept him into power in 2019 with a thumping majority.
What made Partygate so toxic was not so much the parties themselves but the perception they fed, that once again the people now in power considered themselves not bound by the same rules as the suckers who put them there. No-one likes to be made a fool of.
As one article pointed out, at first Johnson made the rest of us feel as if we were 'in on the joke', however due to Party-gate etc people were made to feel that the joke was at their expense.
My main objection to Mordaunt is that, if elected, she apparently intends to make the odious Andrea Leadsom Chancellor.
(https://i.imgur.com/JiaE9I1.jpg)
Watched the TV debate this evening. Policy in short supply but I suppose to be expected. My impressions and they are just that are - Badenoch, OK but nerves showed and she stumbled while giving her summing up speech. I expect her to be more assured on the next debate on Sky. Mordaunt As ahead little to gain and a lot to lose. She played it safe and kept her cool at all times. Sunak He is supposed to be the big beast out of the five but didn't come over like that. A nice chap but PM? Truss Did not come over well at all. Promised to cut taxes and spend more. When the others turned on her she grew flustered. Tugenghat Clear winner, assured, impressive and no BS. All five were asked if Johnson was honest, he was the only one with a flat no. Sadly he will not win as coming from too far back but deserves a ministerial role in the next government.
Quote from: Irons on July 15, 2022, 02:05:45 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/JiaE9I1.jpg)
Watched the TV debate this evening. Policy in short supply but I suppose to be expected. My impressions and they are just that are - Badenoch, OK but nerves showed and she stumbled while giving her summing up speech. I expect her to be more assured on the next debate on Sky. Mordaunt As ahead little to gain and a lot to lose. She played it safe and kept her cool at all times. Sunak He is supposed to be the big beast out of the five but didn't come over like that. A nice chap but PM? Truss Did not come over well at all. Promised to cut taxes and spend more. When the others turned on her she grew flustered. Tugenghat Clear winner, assured, impressive and no BS. All five were asked if Johnson was honest, he was the only one with a flat no. Sadly he will not win as coming from too far back but deserves a ministerial role in the next government.
Largely agree Lol although only watched about half of it - will watch the rest later. Tugendhat was most impressive but Sunak looked most 'prime ministerial' I thought. Agree about the others. I don't think that Mordaunt stood out at all and Truss obviously flustered at times.
I watched last night's debate and still think that Sunak is by far the strongest candidate. The Tories would be mad not to select him. I thought that Tugendhat was the next most impressive. I find Mordaunt rather bland.
These televised public debates made me wonder about the election procedure.
So if I understand correctly, there a several rounds in which Tory MPs pick their favourite. Untill there are two candidates left and Tory party members make the final choice.
Polls indicate party members want a moderate, centrist candidate. Is that what they will be getting?
Quote from: Que on July 17, 2022, 11:35:42 PM
These televised public debates made me wonder about the election procedure.
So if I understand correctly, there a several rounds in which Tory MPs pick their favourite. Untill there are two candidates left and Tory party members make the final choice.
Yes.
Quote from: Que on July 17, 2022, 11:35:42 PM
Polls indicate party members want a moderate, centrist candidate. Is that what they will be getting?
Tugendhat is probably the most centrist, and it looks unlikely at the moment they'll be getting him. I do like him, but I wonder if he has quite the Prime Ministerial stuff to lead a party/nation. Sunak and Mordaunt are more centrist than Truss or Badenoch, and going on polling it seems likely, barring twists or turns, they'll be what the Tory Membership do get.
Sunak seems much more open, less robotic in these debates than I've heard him before. I don't know if the image consultants having been working on him, but he's certainly coming across as more likeable. My preference would be for him and Mordaunt to get through.
Sunak and Truss are refusing to take part in the final debate, so it's been called off. Bit of a surprise, though I imagine Mordaunt is secretly relieved as she had little to gain and much to lose. Wonder if Sunak and Truss' refusal will reflect badly on them.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62206727
Here's Penny Mordaunt's big vision for the UK
https://twitter.com/spectator/status/1549681133104861185
This video makes me a little bit worried about Prime Minister Truss. Incredible, how could things have come to this?
https://www.facebook.com/100044229803784/videos/412781080808656/
Quote from: Mandryka on July 20, 2022, 12:18:03 PM
This video makes me a little bit worried about Prime Minister Truss. Incredible, how could things have come to this?
https://www.facebook.com/100044229803784/videos/412781080808656/
Very entertaining! ;)
Quote from: Mandryka on July 20, 2022, 12:18:03 PM
This video makes me a little bit worried about Prime Minister Truss. Incredible, how could things have come to this?
https://www.facebook.com/100044229803784/videos/412781080808656/
How about this for a chain of events. Truss wins, then loses the next General Election. Tory party on their knees in desperation plead for the return of Boris. "Hasta la vista, baby".
Quote from: Irons on July 21, 2022, 07:52:37 AM
How about this for a chain of events. Truss wins, then loses the next General Election. Tory party on their knees in desperation plead for the return of Boris. "Hasta la vista, baby".
I don't think it matters who wins the next election. They're all as bad as each other.
Quote from: Mandryka on July 21, 2022, 08:01:47 AM
I don't think it matters who wins the next election. They're all as bad as each other.
Fair point.
Presenter collapses on live television during leader debate!
https://youtu.be/EvFVY7yqjoA
They've started doing leadership?
Quote from: Mandryka on July 21, 2022, 08:01:47 AM
I don't think it matters who wins the next election. They're all as bad as each other.
I think you said the same about Starmer vs Johnson, widening the implied spectre even further. Among other things, it's the lazy way out. But both those two current, conservative candidates surely don't appear particularly socially conscious, when looked at from Scandinavia.
Quote from: MusicTurner on July 27, 2022, 10:00:45 PM
I think you said the same about Starmer vs Johnson, widening the implied spectre even further. Among other things, it's the lazy way out. But both those two current, conservative candidates surely don't appear particularly socially conscious, when looked at from Scandinavia.
Starmer ≈ Sunak. Or rather Starmer will adopt Sunak's economic policies in the next election against Truss.
Starmer doesn't appear socially conscious - look at the way he's abandoned RMT, for example. I don't think we could expect better public services under Starmer than we'll get under Truss.
I think it doesn't matter very much who is in power, Labour or Tory.
Quote from: MusicTurner on July 27, 2022, 10:00:45 PM
I think you said the same about Starmer vs Johnson, widening the implied spectre even further. Among other things, it's the lazy way out. But both those two current, conservative candidates surely don't appear particularly socially conscious, when looked at from Scandinavia.
Nor are the current Labour leadership (socially conscious) so he has a point. A Labour front bench shadow minister was sacked yesterday for joining a picket line. He is also threatened with deselection from his constituency seat for left-leaning views.
Johnson, Rishi and Starmer share a similar political place. Truss I'm not so sure.
Quote from: Irons on July 27, 2022, 11:49:35 PM
Nor are the current Labour leadership (socially conscious) so he has a point. A Labour front bench shadow minister was sacked yesterday for joining a picket line. He is also threatened with deselection from his constituency seat for left-leaning views.
Johnson, Rishi and Starmer share a similar political place. Truss I'm not so sure.
I didn't know the recent Sam Tarry story or the Starmer intervention against shadow ministers appearing in picket lines (apparently the strike there wasn't illegal). The Guardian has an in-depth report and BBC tells about the anger from the unions. Yet, one should focus primarily on the expressed and concrete policies of the parties in relation to the state budget and social inequality, and I think that for example the Labour Manifesto does have more of a social dimension to it than the Conservative one of laissez-faire.
Quote from: MusicTurner on July 28, 2022, 12:20:20 AM
I didn't know the recent Sam Tarry story or the Starmer intervention against shadow ministers appearing in picket lines (apparently the strike there wasn't illegal). The Guardian has an in-depth report and BBC tells about the anger from the unions. Yet, one should focus primarily on the expressed and concrete policies of the parties in relation to the state budget and social inequality, and I think that for example the Labour Manifesto does have more of a social dimension to it than the Conservative one of laissez-faire.
That's interesting. What do you think Labour would do that the tories wouldn't?
The very fact that Labour is not supporting the workers in the RMT dispute must give you pause for thought vis-à-vis their social and economic policies. Labour are as monetarist as the Conservatives. Labour discourage popular participation in power, just as the tories do. Both parties are authoritarian and nationalist. Both parties curry favour with big business. Neither party is interested in improving public services, or in halting deregulation.
Of course, Labour are scared that the press will present them as favouring sectorial interests over national interests if they support the unions.
Quote from: MusicTurner on July 28, 2022, 12:20:20 AM
I didn't know the recent Sam Tarry story or the Starmer intervention against shadow ministers appearing in picket lines (apparently the strike there wasn't illegal). The Guardian has an in-depth report and BBC tells about the anger from the unions. Yet, one should focus primarily on the expressed and concrete policies of the parties in relation to the state budget and social inequality, and I think that for example the Labour Manifesto does have more of a social dimension to it than the Conservative one of laissez-faire.
It is all a sham. Labour spread unfounded stories that Tories will sell off the beloved NHS. Johnson, who has no problem being profligate with
our money bungs millions in that direction to spike Labour's guns. Oh for the days of Harold Wilson and Margaret Thatcher when you knew what politicians stood for. I'm reaching the stage for the first time in my life I'm not bothered who wins the next general election.
Quote from: Mandryka on July 28, 2022, 12:35:48 AM
That's interesting. What do you think Labour would do that the tories wouldn't?
The very fact that Labour is not supporting the workers in the RMT dispute must give you pause for thought vis-à-vis their social and economic policies. Labour are as monetarist as the Conservatives. Labour discourage popular participation in power, just as the tories do. Both parties are authoritarian and nationalist. Both parties curry favour with big business. Neither party is interested in improving public services, or in halting deregulation.
Of course, Labour are scared that the press will present them as favouring sectorial interests over national interests if they support the unions.
The Labour Manifesto has a lot of specified initiatives, for example in the 'Tackle Poverty and Inequality' section. After 12 years of absence in government, they'd have to carry through at least some of it, to produce tangible results.
An old school friend of my brother's commented that a Liz Truss premiership (which looks increasingly likely) would be 'like Boris without the jokes'.
Quote from: vandermolen on July 30, 2022, 11:51:53 PM
An old school friend of my brother's commented that a Liz Truss premiership (which looks increasingly likely) would be 'like Boris without the jokes'.
or with nice hair or without the intellectual rigour......... (oh no that's not right.......)
Quote from: vandermolen on July 30, 2022, 11:51:53 PM
An old school friend of my brother's commented that a Liz Truss premiership (which looks increasingly likely) would be 'like Boris without the jokes'.
I'm not so sure. I don't know what to make of her. Raised in a Labour supporting family, joined the Liberal party and voted Remain! Yet the blue-rinse Tories prefer her to dishi Rishi. Maybe a disaster but I don't think she will be Boris mark 2.
Quote from: Irons on July 31, 2022, 05:02:57 AM
I'm not so sure. I don't know what to make of her. Raised in a Labour supporting family, joined the Liberal party and voted Remain! Yet the blue-rinse Tories prefer her to dishi Rishi. Maybe a disaster but I don't think she will be Boris mark 2.
I hope not anyway Lol :)
Quote from: Irons on July 31, 2022, 05:02:57 AM
Yet the blue-rinse Tories prefer her to dishi Rishi.
Well Rishi has brown skin.
Quote from: Mandryka on July 31, 2022, 11:22:26 AM
Well Rishi has brown skin.
Don't know if you are saying they are racist or you are?
Watched the SKY News debate last night. I agreed with the studio audience that Sunak was far more impressive than Truss and looked more like a Prime Minister. However, I suspect that Truss will win for being 'loyal to Boris'. For me that is a reason not to support her.
Quote from: vandermolen on August 05, 2022, 03:21:39 AM
Watched the SKY News debate last night. I agreed with the studio audience that Sunak was far more impressive than Truss and looked more like a Prime Minister. However, I suspect that Truss will win for being 'loyal to Boris'. For me that is a reason not to support her.
The impression I get is that Truss is a total nitwit....and disingenuous. Still, she makes all kinds of promises she cannot keep and that is always a good recipe for political succes. Sunak is a smart guy who understands finance, which seems a good idea given the economic turbulance ahead. But being a banker who married into a family of bilionaires, I doubt if many of the Conservative upper middle class can feel much of a connection with him. Not particularly a "a man of the people".
Boris' Titanic will keep its course! ::)
He who wields the knife in the Tory party never wins the crown. Rishi only had to look back to the Thatcher demise to see the game is up for him. Heseltine a far more capable politician, and unlike Rishi a self-made millionaire, had his heart set to become leader and Prime Minister. He dealt Thatcher a mortal blow, but because of this the party turned their back on him and picked possibly the worst post-war PM, John Major. The game was up for Johnson with the resignation of Sunak as it was up for Thatcher with the resignation of Heseltine. Neither achieved what their actions were planned to achieve. I don't think Sunak has played this at all well.
Quote from: Irons on August 05, 2022, 08:19:54 AM
He who wields the knife in the Tory party never wins the crown. Rishi only had to look back to the Thatcher demise to see the game is up for him. Heseltine a far more capable politician, and unlike Rishi a self-made millionaire, had his heart set to become leader and Prime Minister. He dealt Thatcher a mortal blow, but because of this the party turned their back on him and picked possibly the worst post-war PM, John Major. The game was up for Johnson with the resignation of Sunak as it was up for Thatcher with the resignation of Heseltine. Neither achieved what their actions were planned to achieve. I don't think Sunak has played this at all well.
True, although didn't Thatcher 'stab' Heath in the back?
Quote from: vandermolen on August 05, 2022, 11:16:54 PM
True, although didn't Thatcher 'stab' Heath in the back?
Heath misjudged the mood of the British public during the miner's strike. He called a General Election and lost. Thatcher then Education minister threw her hat in the ring as a 50 to 1 outsider to succeed him. She was up against the big guns of the time Heseltine, Joseph et el.
https://thecritic.co.uk/do-conservative-front-runners-always-lose/
I think Heath was a misogynistic man. Thatcher more then once invited him to join her Cabinet for which he sulkily refused.
One thing that really annoys me. Why is it that Thatcher excepted the winner of an election for leader does not bring the person who has lost into his Cabinet. Starmer/Cobyn I can understand but why was Jeremy Hunt banished to the back benches? If Truss brings in Rishi her stock will rise in my eyes.