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The Back Room => The Diner => Topic started by: milk on May 25, 2021, 06:58:30 AM

Title: Are the aliens here?
Post by: milk on May 25, 2021, 06:58:30 AM
Seriously, are they?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/05/23/ufo-report-sightings-search/
(https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/05/23/ufo-report-sightings-search/)

https://youtube.com/v/Sz-6jRrbtuI

Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: Irons on May 25, 2021, 07:37:14 AM
Quote from: milk on May 25, 2021, 06:58:30 AM
Seriously, are they?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/05/23/ufo-report-sightings-search/
(https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/05/23/ufo-report-sightings-search/)

https://youtube.com/v/Sz-6jRrbtuI

A late friend was employed by the British Ministry of Defence. Who in turn was a work colleague of Nick Pope who was the head of the MOD UFO section  - YES! It is taken seriously at Government level. Pope has written extensively on the subject and through him I heard the Barack Obama administration took the existence of UFO's very seriously indeed.

   https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20160322-my-time-as-a-ufo-investigator-for-the-government
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: MusicTurner on May 25, 2021, 07:42:38 AM
No matter what, it seems likely that the basic question about the possible existence of life elsewhere in space, in one form or another, will be answered within 2-3 decades, due to the advances in science  ...
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: Mirror Image on May 25, 2021, 08:41:37 AM
The short answer: no. The longer answer: I believe that if life existed within our universe, then all would be revealed by God. Flying saucers, green-skinned creatures and laser guns are nothing but a figment of man's imagination, but, of course, many would argue that God is a figment of man's imagination. But, I believe within my own heart that the answers as to whether intelligent life exists outside of our planet will never be revealed and all we have is speculation and heavily edited video surveillance that offers no proof other than what one can do creatively with video.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: relm1 on May 25, 2021, 05:40:39 PM
The short answer: no. The longer answer: for the one millionth time, no.    What do you think this picture is of?
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: greg on May 25, 2021, 06:03:00 PM
Yeah, just me, though. Sorry, my planet blew up.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: Symphonic Addict on May 25, 2021, 07:02:20 PM
I don't discard any possibility. In fact, I'm very open mind with this intriguing yet fascinating topic. However, it doesn't mean I'm gonna believe everything about it. Also, the mere idea about this planet is the only one with life in the entire galaxy or universe is just silly and egotistical. If they have ever lived among us, they certainly have done it quite good to hide the real evidence, whether with the help of governments or not.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: milk on May 25, 2021, 09:29:12 PM
Quote from: Irons on May 25, 2021, 07:37:14 AM
A late friend was employed by the British Ministry of Defence. Who in turn was a work colleague of Nick Pope who was the head of the MOD UFO section  - YES! It is taken seriously at Government level. Pope has written extensively on the subject and through him I heard the Barack Obama administration took the existence of UFO's very seriously indeed.

   https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20160322-my-time-as-a-ufo-investigator-for-the-government
I was a little disappointed by this article. There's got to be more that they're not saying. Why is the military suddenly leaking stuff? It just seems strange. BTW: I did have a UFO experience of my own when I was in my 20s. I was with 3 friends and we still talk about it. It was in Rockland County New York. 
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: steve ridgway on May 25, 2021, 10:08:52 PM
Quote from: relm1 on May 25, 2021, 05:40:39 PM
The short answer: no. The longer answer: for the one millionth time, no.    What do you think this picture is of?

Venus?
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: relm1 on May 26, 2021, 05:17:20 AM
Quote from: steve ridgway on May 25, 2021, 10:08:52 PM
Venus?

Good guess.  It's a star with a bahtinov mask used as a filter to help focus.  Stars are very hard to focus because they have to be focused manually and what the camera measures as infinity is about 50 feet and beyond, rather than focusing on a tight point of light.  So this mask helps align the rays indicating the object is in focus.  I bring it up because this shows how lenses with obstructions distort the light pattern.  In the video OP posted, there is an obvious airplane with strobe light patterns though out of focus and distorted with a foreground obstruction - might not be a mask, but an object either on the lens that the light takes on its shape when out of focus or something in foreground.  This would be much easier to know if the publisher of the video included specific details like date, time, location but they aren't interested in being open but rather pushing an agenda.  This is absolutely true with Jeremy Corbell leaks that include the video from OP, the horrible Bob Lazar documentary, etc.  This is very, very misleading leaks giving false impressions by hiding important details intentionally.  All the leaks recently are for specific reasons rather than mounting evidence and all came from the same few sources.  None of the videos are that compelling with multiple mundane explanations possibly explaining each of them (though not the same explanation for all of them). 

(https://astrograph.net/WebRoot/LCN/Shops/www_astrograph_net/5687/DC90/E6B8/4EA9/CCCB/0A0C/05B7/1E21/M52_Mask.jpg)
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: drogulus on May 26, 2021, 10:36:32 AM

     Go Here (https://www.good-music-guide.com/community/index.php/topic,6347.msg1369446.html#msg1369446)

When it comes to the reality that drones and balloons appear to be the origin of many of these sightings, I wish it wasn't the case. I would rather have all this be some huge revelation for mankind instead of having to come to terms with the fact that at least one of our adversaries, and possibly two, have played our own cultural norms against us and have executed what may be among the most successful and ingenious intelligence-gathering plays of all time. Meanwhile, it seems that the DoD is either incapable of identifying and evaluating what should no longer be considered an emerging threat—swarming drones and radar target balloons—or they are playing along by acting like they do not know, which could be the case for a number of reasons.

First of all, it's not the Navy's job to protect America's sovereign airspace, it is the Air Force's. That service will say next to nothing about any of this, even when asked very specific questions. Why? Well, at least when it comes to the drone threat, they really don't have the ability to defend against it and have clearly failed in doing so thus far. In fact, if unidentified flying craft are hanging out off of our coasts, why haven't alert fighters scrambled to investigate them repeatedly? Their crews are the ones specially trained and equipped to do so. Maybe they were and we just haven't heard about it, but if it was happening all the time, I find that doubtful. And yes, they do scramble on 'UFOs,' as we exclusively discovered a few years ago.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: greg on May 26, 2021, 10:41:23 AM
Antigravity technology seems to be a big part of the discussion now with this stuff. There's Bob Lazar's claims, the story of Ning Li and her disappearance, and the inexplicable movements of the UFOs.

So there is an idea that parts of the US military are so secretive that the other parts of the military, and rest of the government, have no idea what they are secretly working on. Would be interesting if true, though would rather that the US be the only ones with that technology at the moment.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: MusicTurner on May 28, 2021, 11:19:43 PM
Corbell release of video allegedly from USS Omaha radar room 2019, with possibly 9 or 14 UFOs, is the new story these days. Another recent Corbell video was confirmed as authentic by the Pentagon.

We'll see ...
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: david johnson on May 28, 2021, 11:29:24 PM
We debate that question often up here on Mars...
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: relm1 on May 29, 2021, 06:25:54 AM
Quote from: MusicTurner on May 28, 2021, 11:19:43 PM
Corbell release of video allegedly from USS Omaha radar room 2019, with possibly 9 or 14 UFOs, is the new story these days. Another recent Corbell video was confirmed as authentic by the Pentagon.

We'll see ...

But they are of nothing interesting.  He's milking this for his personal cash flow.  No doubt he has many more edited videos that will drip out because an investigator with poor investigative skills leaked it to him. 

Compare the pyramid ufo he leaked last month and what anyone with a camera and flight experience knew, it's an out of focus plane.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-r2oaQWmqkk

The reason I'm anti conspiracy theorist (like Corbell) is that it is very, very easy for them to release misleading or incomplete videos and just "put it out there" claiming no expertise and takes quite a bit of time to debunk it.  They spread falsehood much faster without an ounce of responsibility for their poor reasoning or rational skepticism and masquerade the volume of misinformation as evidence.  It's very disingenuous and the guy is a con artist.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: MusicTurner on May 29, 2021, 06:29:32 AM
That one has surely been debunked.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: drogulus on May 29, 2021, 10:34:11 AM
     Why would aliens express such an interest in the USAF bases, nuclear power plants and Atlantic and Pacific zones where the US Navy conducts its exercises?

     Government officials and others who have a clue might prefer the space alien story for public consumption to reduce pressure to answer tough questions about drones and radar reflectors near the most sensitive sites in the US. It does no harm for Obama to wonder about what these objects are. He's wondering, so he doesn't have to be forthcoming about what he knows, because he doesn't seem to know. OK, that's kind of by the book. I'd do that, and most people would, I suppose. I wonder, though, if there's genuine ignorance underneath. Do we actually not know what these objects are? The Air Force is the institution that knows the most, and they say nothing. I hope it's not because they don't want to admit they don't have effective countermeasures.

     
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: BasilValentine on May 29, 2021, 02:58:34 PM
Quote from: Symphonic Addict on May 25, 2021, 07:02:20 PM
I don't discard any possibility. In fact, I'm very open mind with this intriguing yet fascinating topic. However, it doesn't mean I'm gonna believe everything about it. Also, the mere idea about this planet is the only one with life in the entire galaxy or universe is just silly and egotistical. If they have ever lived among us, they certainly have done it quite good to hide the real evidence, whether with the help of governments or not.

We haven't ruled out the present, let alone the past existence of extraterrestrial life in our solar system. It's commonly accepted that clear evidence of life on Mars or one of the moons of Jupiter, for example, would all but guarantee that life is commonplace throughout the universe. Two here pretty much means ubiquity on the grand scale. So local exploration can pretty much put this question to bed. Not to mention that the eventual launch of the Webb telescope will enable the spectroscopic analysis of the atmospheres of nearby exoplanets, meaning perhaps finding signs of life across light years.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: relm1 on May 29, 2021, 03:55:01 PM
Quote from: drogulus on May 29, 2021, 10:34:11 AM
     Why would aliens express such an interest in the USAF bases, nuclear power plants and Atlantic and Pacific zones where the US Navy conducts its exercises?

     Government officials and others who have a clue might prefer the space alien story for public consumption to reduce pressure to answer tough questions about drones and radar reflectors near the most sensitive sites in the US. It does no harm for Obama to wonder about what these objects are. He's wondering, so he doesn't have to be forthcoming about what he knows, because he doesn't seem to know. OK, that's kind of by the book. I'd do that, and most people would, I suppose. I wonder, though, if there's genuine ignorance underneath. Do we actually not know what these objects are? The Air Force is the institution that knows the most, and they say nothing. I hope it's not because they don't want to admit they don't have effective countermeasures.


One other thing, Southern California where these events happened is full of not only military but restricted space for tests and training for the military.  One of the three locations in the US that launches rockets is 80 miles north at Vandenberg Air force Base and they frequently don't announce launches if they are military/spy cargo and fly overhead.  At the right time, just before dusk or predawn, they are a huge source of UFO sightings when people see strange lights and objects in the sky.  Second, the area of these sightings is near San Gabriel Island - an island used exclusively by the Navy and even has experimental drone research and training from there.  How coincidental that all these sightings are around 20 miles of San Gabriel Island.  I'm a local pilot and skipper to these waters and often hear on the radio the Navy tell a boater to leave an area due to an active naval training underway. 

I watched this spectacular dawn launch from my room 80 miles south of where it happened.  Tons of UFO sightings were on the news.  I can imagine many of these Corbell videos are simply military tests or private drones that fail to file the proper paper work or are not public even classified to military.  These objects don't do anything unusual.  The latest Corbell video, the radar indicates four low flying objects with a speed between 50 and 138 knots and even there, there is debate if the radar operators say "138" or "38" - it's a bit garbled and hard to hear and cleverly, corbell's video release intentionally doesn't show the radar readout so you only see the objects not the details.  Very, very mundane speeds. 
(https://mediad.publicbroadcasting.net/p/shared/npr/styles/placed_wide/nprshared/201805/573206931.jpg)
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: Mirror Image on May 29, 2021, 08:19:36 PM
It's amazing what photoshop can do.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: MusicTurner on May 29, 2021, 10:26:57 PM
Quote from: relm1 on May 29, 2021, 03:55:01 PM
One other thing, Southern California where these events happened is full of not only military but restricted space for tests and training for the military.  One of the three locations in the US that launches rockets is 80 miles north at Vandenberg Air force Base and they frequently don't announce launches if they are military/spy cargo and fly overhead.  At the right time, just before dusk or predawn, they are a huge source of UFO sightings when people see strange lights and objects in the sky.  Second, the area of these sightings is near San Gabriel Island - an island used exclusively by the Navy and even has experimental drone research and training from there.  How coincidental that all these sightings are around 20 miles of San Gabriel Island.  I'm a local pilot and skipper to these waters and often hear on the radio the Navy tell a boater to leave an area due to an active naval training underway. 

I watched this spectacular dawn launch from my room 80 miles south of where it happened.  Tons of UFO sightings were on the news.  I can imagine many of these Corbell videos are simply military tests or private drones that fail to file the proper paper work or are not public even classified to military.  These objects don't do anything unusual.  The latest Corbell video, the radar indicates four low flying objects with a speed between 50 and 138 knots and even there, there is debate if the radar operators say "138" or "38" - it's a bit garbled and hard to hear and cleverly, corbell's video release intentionally doesn't show the radar readout so you only see the objects not the details.  Very, very mundane speeds. 
(https://mediad.publicbroadcasting.net/p/shared/npr/styles/placed_wide/nprshared/201805/573206931.jpg)

Interesting comments, thank you. Looking for example at Twitter for "#UFO" postings, one will see people posting all sorts of very simple/obvious hoaxes, clouds and lights on the sky, all the time, creating a lot of irrelevant noise, for sure. There may even be a barrage of them these days, due to the general attention to the subject. It's disappointing if major news stations show a lack of criticism.
My impression is that your photo doesn't necessarily have to be photo-shopped, with the right light conditions, it may be a naturally perceived scene.

But then, here's another former, relevant US official 'coming out' ...
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/555761-extraordinary-explanations-for-ufos-look-increasingly-plausible
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: relm1 on May 30, 2021, 05:23:59 AM
Quote from: MusicTurner on May 29, 2021, 10:26:57 PM
Interesting comments, thank you. Looking for example at Twitter for "#UFO" postings, one will see people posting all sorts of very simple/obvious hoaxes, clouds and lights on the sky, all the time, creating a lot of irrelevant noise, for sure. There may even be a barrage of them these days, due to the general attention to the subject. It's disappointing if major news stations show a lack of criticism.
My impression is that your photo doesn't necessarily have to be photo-shopped, with the right light conditions, it may be a naturally perceived scene.

But then, here's another former, relevant US official 'coming out' ...
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/555761-extraordinary-explanations-for-ufos-look-increasingly-plausible

That picture wasn't photoshoped.  I saw it and took tons of pictures of the same event.  It was a spectacular sight and the cloud was visible for maybe 30 minutes.  The reason it's so bright is it was high enough that the sunlight struck the exhaust though it was after dark on the ground.  Here is a very good explanation of the ufo's in that original round of Naval releases from corbel.  A critical analysis of them which is missing from practically all news sources who seem to prefer the extraordinary claim but not requiring extraordinary evidence or allowing for a counter opinion.
 
https://youtu.be/Le7Fqbsrrm8
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: drogulus on May 30, 2021, 07:16:31 AM
     If I'm the UFO czar my job is make sure the public discussion is diffuse enough so that fake ignorance covers any real ignorance and other failures to respond adequately.

     Government sources have not reversed their position on what these objects are, they have adjusted to a new era where talking vaguely about what these objects are is less problematic than refusing to talk about them. I don't expect a frank public discussion of intelligence and defense vulnerabilities. That's not going to happen. It follows that any public discussion of these occurrences by official sources will not be frank, or will be by those who are not well informed.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: MusicTurner on June 05, 2021, 12:38:41 PM
The suggestion that it is perhaps secret Russian or Chinese technology is strongly rejected by the current head of the Danish Airforce operations academy and technical analyst Karsten Marrup, who says that a few years ago he'd fiercely oppose any ideas about alien technology, but that now, though it's really mentally challenging, he can't rule it out, because the designs and movements contradict anything known so far.

Some other, wild guesses presented in the media:
- not aliens, but inhabitants/'us' from the future
- visitors from other, undiscovered layers of reality or dimensions
- alien civilizations, who have gone much more technological than us ...
- optical phenomena, or 'holograms', by unknown causes

(etc. ...)
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: drogulus on June 06, 2021, 07:24:43 AM
Quote from: MusicTurner on June 05, 2021, 12:38:41 PM
The suggestion that it is perhaps secret Russian or Chinese technology is strongly rejected by the current head of the Danish Airforce operations academy and technical analyst Karsten Marrup, who says that a few years ago he'd fiercely oppose any ideas about alien technology, but that now, though it's really mentally challenging, he can't rule it out, because the designs and movements contradict anything known so far.



     The openness strategy is to make statements acknowledging the phenomena while "not knowing very much" about the details.

     In the US the Navy and assorted government officials do the not knowing very much part publicly.

     I would expect anything that's unknown so far to be secret. The Nimitz Carrier Strike Group deployment in 2004, the "Tic Tac" incident, gives clues about both the not knowing and telling, and the knowing and not telling parts:

By multiple accounts from vetted first-hand sources, the hard drives that record CEC data from the E-2C Hawkeye and Aegis-equipped ships were seized in a very mysterious fashion following the Tic Tac incident. Uniformed U.S. Air Force officers showed up on these vessels and confiscated the devices and they were never to be seen again. This is not rumor or hearsay, this is attested to by multiple uniformed witnesses that were on the vessels that made up the Nimitz Carrier Strike Group at the time.

At the same time, on an official level, the Navy seemed to shut down any further investigation into the incident. The aforementioned after-action report states that the Nimitz Carrier Strike Group's senior intelligence officer, whose name is redacted, alerted the Navy's 3rd Fleet intelligence officer, or N2, about the incident via secure Email. That same Email, known as a Mission Report (MISREP), included the video footage and other details.

For unexplained reasons, officials at the 3rd Fleet N2 declined to send this report up the chain of command. They also deleted the MISREP, but speculated that paper copy should have been available. However, there is no indication that anyone went looking for this physical copy of the MISREP during the investigation.


     The good stuff is in the knowing and not telling part. That's where explanations of what witnesses saw would be.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: LKB on June 06, 2021, 10:19:49 AM
I'm the son of a USAF veteran, who flew combat missions during the Korean War and over Vietnam. Based on what my parents eventually told me and my siblings, ( decades after my father's service ), along with what we've parsed out over the years, l can state the following with a high degree of confidence.

1) UAPs have been encountered by pilots since WWII. In Dad's own words, " Any professional pilot who is flying regularly, has or will encounter these things. "

2) The odds that these craft are of Russian or Chinese origin are vanishingly small. The odds that they originated in the United States are somewhat higher.

3) The US government has demonstrated a willingness to sacrifice the lives of military personnel in order to protect sensitive assets. I have personal knowledge of this aspect of governmental policy. If the vehicles tracked in the released FLIR footage were of US origin, the government is going to protect that fact to every extent possible. Alternatively, if the craft were actually piloted by either ETs or some sort of autonomous technology, the government's response would almost certainly be exactly the same.

So while the truth may be out there, we shouldn't expect to receive it from any official US agency, or to be present in the forthcoming report.

LKB

Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: drogulus on June 06, 2021, 10:30:15 AM
Quote from: LKB on June 06, 2021, 10:19:49 AM
I'm the son of a USAF veteran, who flew combat missions during the Korean War and over Vietnam. Based on what my parents eventually told me and my siblings, ( decades after my father's service ), along with what we've parsed out over the years, l can state the following with a high degree of confidence.



2) The odds that these craft are of Russian or Chinese origin are vanishingly small. The odds that they originated in the United States are somewhat higher.



     Why would odds be different for Russians or Chinese? I think these phenomena don't have a single cause. It's us, for all "us", and them. The USAF seized all the hard data because of what it revealed about our capabilities, and the capabilities of an adversary. I don't think all of these incidents involve craft, either. I think sensors are being played with.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: drogulus on June 06, 2021, 10:37:12 AM

     I think it's cheaper to build tech to make us see impossible things than to build tech that does impossible things.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: BasilValentine on June 06, 2021, 11:05:25 AM
Quote from: LKB on June 06, 2021, 10:19:49 AM

2) The odds that these craft are of Russian or Chinese origin are vanishingly small. The odds that they originated in the United States are somewhat higher.

3) The US government has demonstrated a willingness to sacrifice the lives of military personnel in order to protect sensitive assets. I have personal knowledge of this aspect of governmental policy. If the vehicles tracked in the released FLIR footage were of US origin, the government is going to protect that fact to every extent possible. Alternatively, if the craft were actually piloted by either ETs or some sort of autonomous technology, the government's response would almost certainly be exactly the same.

So while the truth may be out there, we shouldn't expect to receive it from any official US agency, or to be present in the forthcoming report.

LKB

Given that the craft (which means leaving out the "fast moving" balloon) in these cases are likely commercial airliners and jets operating on the books in the US whose distance from the observer was misindentified, yes, the chances that they are Russian or Chinese is vanishingly small.  ::) Did you see the video posted by relm 1 in which simple math, trigonometry, and knowledge of photographic equipment is used to debunk all of the current favorites?
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: LKB on June 06, 2021, 11:26:47 AM
Here's an interview with the pilot who was flying the F/A-18 from whence the " tic-tac " video came.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nymag.com/intelligencer/amp/2019/12/tic-tac-ufo-video-q-and-a-with-navy-pilot-chad-underwood.html

And it's worth mentioning that both USS Princeton and his CO had made contact with the object, visually in the case of the CO.

So while spoofing a FLIR system may be possible, it seems unlikely in this instance.

Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: Jo498 on June 06, 2021, 11:29:00 AM
Quote from: MusicTurner on May 25, 2021, 07:42:38 AM
No matter what, it seems likely that the basic question about the possible existence of life elsewhere in space, in one form or another, will be answered within 2-3 decades, due to the advances in science  ...
About 25 years ago I attended a seminar or a talk where the ominous Drake equation estimating the probabilities for extraterrestrial life/contact was discussed. Back then, it was a common assumption that an important cause for lack of contact might be the lack of habitable earthlike planets as in the mid-1990s we didn't know about ANY extrasolarsystem planet. Only 10 years later and now more than 20 years later we have discovered so many exoplanets that mere lack of planets is very probably not the decisive factor. I only mention this to show the uncertainties involved and how quickly can something change but not towards resolving the basic puzzle. So now we can be fairly sure it is not merely lack of planets, so it must be another factor we had estimated wrongly to explain the low probability. Therefore I am extremely skeptical that these questions will be resolved within another 25 years...
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: MusicTurner on June 06, 2021, 11:47:42 AM
The remark about a couple of decades was about discovering some sort of existing or previous life form elsewhere, even microbic, not any civilization per se. The quick, recent discoveries of many exoplanets, however modest in relation to their real, likely huge number, also illustrate the advancing scientific tools.

In the Big Number Department, Brian Cox suggests a likely 200 billion civilizations or more, that is, one per galaxy, and the number of galaxies then estimated quite low.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: Irons on June 07, 2021, 07:30:55 AM
Quote from: MusicTurner on June 06, 2021, 11:47:42 AM
The remark about a couple of decades was about discovering some sort of existing or previous life form elsewhere, even microbic, not any civilization per se. The quick, recent discoveries of many exoplanets, however modest in relation to their real, likely huge number, also illustrate the advancing scientific tools.

In the Big Number Department, Brian Cox suggests a likely 200 billion civilizations or more, that is, one per galaxy, and the number of galaxies then estimated quite low.

A new series from BBC with Brian Cox has just began on this subject. To prove life can exist in inhospitable environments Cox travelled to the deepest ocean's beds. My wife who watched the programme said he was shaken by the experience.   
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: MusicTurner on June 07, 2021, 07:46:05 AM
It's possible that he's revised his opinions somewhat; in 2014, he's quoted for saying that we are surely alone, in this galaxy at least.

I guess the series will tell more, but the media are generally quick at reporting any news/discoveries on the subject, so only a future "smoking gun" would probably constitute any real news. But his programs tend to be fascinating, and visually, the Brits of course tend to produce them magnificently.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: Jo498 on June 07, 2021, 08:54:54 AM
My point was that a factor that was assumed to be decisive, changed completely in that we now think the planets, even earthlike ones are not rare at all. We know more now, which is good but the change was not incremental or directional (as one factor is totally different than previously assumed but the end result (nobody out there?) very similar, it follows that other factors must also be different than assumed), so there is a morale here about huge ignorance and uncertainty in "known unknowns". I think it is highly likely that there are factors for the development of life or intelligent life that are "unknown unknowns". Therefore I do not expect that the general ignorance wrt alien life will be so different in 2050 than it is now.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: drogulus on June 07, 2021, 09:07:41 AM


     There's nothing to stop the aliens showing up 100,000,000 years early, or late. Even being off by 100,000 years is as good as a complete miss.

     We should contemplate not only the rareness factor for advanced civilizations, but also the deep unlikelihood that the timing would by right. Chemistry being what it is, life is probably ubiquitous.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: MusicTurner on June 07, 2021, 09:18:00 AM
Well, some people are suggesting that advanced civilizations would be independent of biological factors, and that also, they'd conceive a rather stasis-like, unflexible canon of behaviour, aimed at maintaining their own existence and avoid disastrous changes.

Of course, disasters could be another side-effect or a natural development of things.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: greg on June 07, 2021, 12:36:59 PM
Dreamed last night I saw an actual UFO, and it was confirmed to be aliens. Woke up disappointed.  :-X
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: drogulus on June 07, 2021, 01:59:36 PM
Quote from: greg on June 07, 2021, 12:36:59 PM
Dreamed last night I saw an actual UFO, and it was confirmed to be aliens. Woke up disappointed.  :-X

     I dreamt I won the Nobel Prize for economics. Then I woke up and discovered they gave it to some alien asshole for "Cosmic Inflation". (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/angry.gif)
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: greg on June 07, 2021, 09:25:11 PM
Quote from: drogulus on June 07, 2021, 01:59:36 PM
     I dreamt I won the Nobel Prize for economics. Then I woke up and discovered they gave it to some alien asshole for "Cosmic Inflation". (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/angry.gif)
Yeah, screw that guy! Or her! Or zher! Or %@)&!   (whatever their alien gender pronouns may be)

The Intergalactic Economists Guild just hates humans anyways, they've always favored Zigglians... most privileged species outside the Milky Way, if you ask me...
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: drogulus on June 09, 2021, 07:12:15 AM

     Richard Carrier is one of the foremost bog slayers on the planet, though he focuses his attention on the supernatural variety most of the time.

     UFOs Are Not That Remarkable (https://www.richardcarrier.info/archives/18441)

     
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: steve ridgway on June 11, 2021, 07:25:20 AM
Some of my photos taken from the garden this time last year. Make of them what you will... ::)

Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: LKB on June 11, 2021, 11:36:51 AM
Quote from: steve ridgway on June 11, 2021, 07:25:20 AM
Some of my photos taken from the garden this time last year. Make of them what you will... ::)

That is a high-altitude balloon. Growing up on a SAC base in the 1960's, l would spot these during their ascent. As their altitude increases the diameter expands until they are nearly spherical, but in the first minutes after launch they look like enormous jellyfish.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: steve ridgway on June 11, 2021, 08:59:46 PM
Quote from: LKB on June 11, 2021, 11:36:51 AM
That is a high-altitude balloon. Growing up on a SAC base in the 1960's, l would spot these during their ascent. As their altitude increases the diameter expands until they are nearly spherical, but in the first minutes after launch they look like enormous jellyfish.

That is what I thought. The still photos made it clearer than watching it move at the time.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: LKB on June 25, 2021, 11:35:20 AM
The big ufo report from the US government is supposedly imminent. Here's what retired USAF Lt. General Jack Weinstein said on the subject:

" I can't believe we're the most intelligent life-form in the entire universe, 'cause that means the universe is pretty dumb. "

l agree completely.

Personally, l expect the report will generate more confusion and disappointment than anything else. It is, after all, a government project.

:D,

LKB
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: MusicTurner on June 25, 2021, 12:43:17 PM
The unclassified report has landed (and the classified has been handed over to congress).

This is apparently some of it:
https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Prelimary-Assessment-UAP-20210625.pdf

There isn't much to it immediately it seems; but:
"• 144 reports originated from USG sources. Of these, 80 reports involved observation with multiple sensors.
Most reports described UAP as objects that interrupted pre-planned training or other military activity.
" (...)

"And a Handful of UAP Appear to Demonstrate Advanced Technology. In 18 incidents, described in 21 reports, observers reported unusual UAP movement patterns or flight characteristics. (...) "

.........................................................................
Here are however some of the other, spectacular news stories in recent days:

- evidence for extremely cold, salty, sub-surface lakes on Mars ?
https://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-mystery-of-subsurface-lakes-under-mars-south-pole-deepens/

- the 10 most likely places to find life in our solar system
https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/06/16/1026473/best-worlds-extraterrestrial-life-solar-system-ranked/

- scientists presenting 100s of nearby star systems with reasonable views to Earth, corresponding to our current technology level
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2281783-aliens-orbiting-1402-stars-near-earth-could-be-looking-at-us-right-now/

- rumors of a Pentagon UFO photo (that said, British tabloids have been willing to publish absolutely anything, however ridiculous, about alleged UFO encounters)
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15367584/pentagon-black-triangle-ufo-photo-fighter-pilot/


Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: LKB on June 25, 2021, 06:42:52 PM
In 1947, extra-terrestrial beings supposedly crashed their spacecraft in the area of Roswell, NM.

As it happened, my father's first orders as a new lieutenant were to Roswell AFB, in 1950.

Mom told me that any questions, discussion or conjecture regarding anything related to " ufos " were strictly forbidden by the command structure at Roswell AFB. A curiously strict policy, if the incident in question merely concerned a weather balloon....



Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: relm1 on June 26, 2021, 05:42:01 AM
Quote from: LKB on June 25, 2021, 06:42:52 PM
In 1947, extra-terrestrial beings supposedly crashed their spacecraft in the area of Roswell, NM.

As it happened, my father's first orders as a new lieutenant were to Roswell AFB, in 1950.

Mom told me that any questions, discussion or conjecture regarding anything related to " ufos " were strictly forbidden by the command structure at Roswell AFB. A curiously strict policy, if the incident in question merely concerned a weather balloon....

It wasn't merely a weather balloon.  It was a cold war era listening device used to detect possible atomic tests in the soviet union during the start of the cold war.  Given the paranoia of that very era, with senator McCarthy's national witch hunts just a few years away, of course it makes sense that military would consider talk of a cover story around a soviet listening device to be strictly prohibited. 
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: Spotted Horses on June 26, 2021, 07:49:06 AM
Quote from: LKB on June 25, 2021, 06:42:52 PM
In 1947, extra-terrestrial beings supposedly crashed their spacecraft in the area of Roswell, NM.

As it happened, my father's first orders as a new lieutenant were to Roswell AFB, in 1950.

Mom told me that any questions, discussion or conjecture regarding anything related to " ufos " were strictly forbidden by the command structure at Roswell AFB. A curiously strict policy, if the incident in question merely concerned a weather balloon....

The U.S. published a report on the Roswell rumor some years ago, which made perfect sense. First a high altitude balloon used in a military testing was lost. There was a photo of someone exhibiting the debris in the local newspaper, which seems to show balsa wood and aluminized mylar. The same guy later went around giving speeches about the advanced alien space ship. Later tests were done of high altitude ejection seats, which resulted in some going off course and landing in farmers fields, complete with weird looking dummies. Of course onlookers were kept away as the debris was collected.

The two were conflated in the popular imagination to creat the myth of a flying saucer crash with alien corpses scattered about. The Air Force seemed to think this was a good distraction from the true explanation, tests of military technology.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: drogulus on June 26, 2021, 08:41:10 AM
Quote from: Spotted Horses on June 26, 2021, 07:49:06 AM
The U.S. published a report on the Roswell rumor some years ago, which made perfect sense. First a high altitude balloon used in a military testing was lost. There was a photo of someone exhibiting the debris in the local newspaper, which seems to show balsa wood and aluminized mylar. The same guy later went around giving speeches about the advanced alien space ship. Later tests were done of high altitude ejection seats, which resulted in some going off course and landing in farmers fields, complete with weird looking dummies. Of course onlookers were kept away as the debris was collected.

The two were conflated in the popular imagination to creat the myth of a flying saucer crash with alien corpses scattered about. The Air Force seemed to think this was a good distraction from the true explanation, tests of military technology.

     The report has a public and a secret version. The public one says we don't know very much about these phenomena. The secret ones says we know a good deal about some of them. I surmise that the details are secret and the general outline is so obvious a spaceman can see it from parsecs away. We're doing stuff and adversaries are doing stuff and it's an arms race of measures and countermeasures.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: LKB on June 26, 2021, 04:19:29 PM
So I downloaded and read the eagerly-awaited report, and basically my reaction was, " Really? "

So much conjecture, suspense and " expert  " commentary, for nine pages?

All the " report " accomplishes is to illustrate something of the extent of what is not being reported.

Presumably the House Intelligence Committee received something more robust. And yes, l did note the use of the word, " interim " in the public product.

But it doesn't whet my appetite for additional releases, and my cynicism circuitry is now activated.  ::)
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: relm1 on June 27, 2021, 05:49:04 AM
Quote from: drogulus on June 26, 2021, 08:41:10 AM
     The report has a public and a secret version. The public one says we don't know very much about these phenomena. The secret ones says we know a good deal about some of them. I surmise that the details are secret and the general outline is so obvious a spaceman can see it from parsecs away. We're doing stuff and adversaries are doing stuff and it's an arms race of measures and countermeasures.

The secret one will also go in to details of known military technology and test programs that are of equipment not yet announced.  This whole todo about nothing is that some branches of the military aren't privy to what other branches are doing and that will remain the case as new technology is tested.  Many of these reports happened around 20 miles near San Clemente Island, which is an island owned by the Navy for testing and training and it includes a brand new drone runway.  They are probably testing new drones and some might be flying in formation like smart cars that talk to each other.  I agree with the report that there were reports of the UAPs flying in uncharacteristic "advanced" methods but it never says that was verified which can also be explained by loss of perspective.  When you see something you weren't expecting, you don't have enough information of where it is and what it is doing so if you expect it farther away than it actually is, it might seem to be flying in impossible ways but it could also just be very close. 
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: steve ridgway on June 27, 2021, 06:09:50 AM
The only way this whole question will ever be settled is by revealing some aliens. ::)
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: MusicTurner on June 27, 2021, 06:53:42 AM
If inhabitants from other planets went for discoveries here, they'd very likely be sending drones, to transcend biological travel problems. They might even have evolved into non-biological beings themselves.

Here's another, spectacularly colourful take from the recent media buzz:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-possible-link-between-oumuamua-and-unidentified-aerial-phenomena/

Loeb, who's been launching some of the more adventurous ideas, also thinks that
https://www.newsweek.com/pentagon-likely-thinks-ufos-not-human-astrophysicist-says-ahead-report-1603421

A more detailed recent article on nearby exoplanets:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2021/06/23/29-intelligent-alien-civilizations-may-have-already-spotted-us-say-scientists/?sh=61c4b2ec2d6a
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: steve ridgway on June 27, 2021, 09:04:24 AM
Quote from: MusicTurner on June 27, 2021, 06:53:42 AM
If inhabitants from other planets went for discoveries here, they'd very likely be sending drones, to transcend biological travel problems. They might even have evolved into non-biological beings themselves.

Here's another, spectacularly colourful take from the recent media buzz:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-possible-link-between-oumuamua-and-unidentified-aerial-phenomena/

Loeb, who's been launching some of the more adventurous ideas, also thinks that
https://www.newsweek.com/pentagon-likely-thinks-ufos-not-human-astrophysicist-says-ahead-report-1603421

A more detailed recent article on nearby exoplanets:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2021/06/23/29-intelligent-alien-civilizations-may-have-already-spotted-us-say-scientists/?sh=61c4b2ec2d6a

Intelligent aliens might be entertained by human cultural products such as art, music and literature, but humans are probably not the sort of people they'd want on their planets.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: LKB on June 27, 2021, 11:18:48 AM
Quote from: steve ridgway on June 27, 2021, 09:04:24 AM
Intelligent aliens might be entertained by human cultural products such as art, music and literature, but humans are probably not the sort of people they'd want on their planets.

I doubt they'd find any of our artistic or cultural endeavors to be particularly interesting, except as data. ETs would almost certainly be advanced not only in technological terms, but in every societal area.

For me, listening to tribal musicians banging on logs isn't interesting for very long. For ETs, the greatest works in western music would probably be perceived as obvious, limited and boring ( except to an alien musicologist... maybe ).
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: steve ridgway on June 30, 2021, 09:45:15 AM
I can now see the wisdom of the vast distances between stars and the speed of light limit. Species such as humans have plenty of resources in their own solar systems to take care of or exploit ruthlessly and destroy, but the rest of the universe is safe.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: milk on July 05, 2021, 04:59:07 AM
Quote from: LKB on June 27, 2021, 11:18:48 AM
I doubt they'd find any of our artistic or cultural endeavors to be particularly interesting, except as data. ETs would almost certainly be advanced not only in technological terms, but in every societal area.

For me, listening to tribal musicians banging on logs isn't interesting for very long. For ETs, the greatest works in western music would probably be perceived as obvious, limited and boring ( except to an alien musicologist... maybe ).
Maybe they like BTS? Or this:

https://youtube.com/v/aq8QEQ0seu0
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: foxandpeng on July 05, 2021, 05:58:26 AM
Quote from: steve ridgway on June 30, 2021, 09:45:15 AM
I can now see the wisdom of the vast distances between stars and the speed of light limit. Species such as humans have plenty of resources in their own solar systems to take care of or exploit ruthlessly and destroy, but the rest of the universe is safe.

Agreed. Earth: pointless rubble covered by a moist film of biological sludge, in a spiral arm of an unremarkable galaxy, in the vast detritus field of space. Lots of space between that and the nearest similarly damp, cold rock.

Unless, of course, one has a broader view of the presence of over-arching intelligence, purpose and curation in the universe. In which case, lots of space between this planet and the next is probably a good thing anyway. 
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: milk on July 05, 2021, 06:12:57 AM
I don't agree that humanity is necessarily unremarkable. Transcendence might just be remarkable - depending on who and what's remarking, of course. I read Hitchhiker's. But maybe our success or failure really does mean something. Consciousness, transcendence, imagination and love, might be part of the deeper questions of what and why. Or maybe not. 
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: LKB on July 05, 2021, 12:56:57 PM
I wouldn't say that Homo Sapiens is unremarkable. Immature, dangerous and somewhat arrogant, but not unremarkable.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: foxandpeng on July 05, 2021, 01:17:05 PM
Quote from: LKB on July 05, 2021, 12:56:57 PM
I wouldn't say that Homo Sapiens is unremarkable. Immature, dangerous and somewhat arrogant, but not unremarkable.

Although they do inhabit a planet in the spiral arm of a rather unremarkable galaxy, as I suggested earlier. However interesting or unusual the emergence of complex life may be, it has done so in one of the countless cosmic backwaters of the universe and pretty far from anything else.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: steve ridgway on July 05, 2021, 09:44:21 PM
Quote from: foxandpeng on July 05, 2021, 05:58:26 AM
Unless, of course, one has a broader view of the presence of over-arching intelligence, purpose and curation in the universe. In which case, lots of space between this planet and the next is probably a good thing anyway.

I would most enjoy a lot of separate, distinct environments with their own cultures and artefacts rather than widespread dominance by a single civilisation, and would want things that took a long time to develop to be taken care of.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: MusicTurner on October 08, 2021, 07:29:15 AM
In its own way, it's a a bit interesting how this field has completely faded out in public discussions, with no news or information of any importance apparently, since the much-awaited, but very meagre official US report ...
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: rhomboid on February 01, 2022, 09:29:55 AM
Some species of aliens are capable of becoming invisible.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: LKB on February 01, 2022, 09:51:10 AM
Quote from: romboid on February 01, 2022, 09:29:55 AM
Some species of aliens are capable of becoming invisible.

Not really surprising, if in fact such visitors are on our world. Consider:

https://youtu.be/YnhFX03JBIs

Any civilization advanced enough to have mastered superluminal travel should also have perfected a means for staying undetectable in the visible wavelengths, if they so choose.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: rhomboid on February 01, 2022, 10:00:46 AM
Quote from: LKB on February 01, 2022, 09:51:10 AM
Not really surprising, if in fact such visitors are on our world. Consider:

https://youtu.be/YnhFX03JBIs

Any civilization advanced enough to have mastered superluminal travel should also have perfected a means for staying undetectable in the visible wavelengths, if they so choose.

Oops, that is a 2012 video and I'm not updated...  :-X
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: Iota on March 24, 2022, 05:35:29 AM

"Better than our most optimistic prediction" – first images from James Webb exceed all expectations

(https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_webp/https://cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/telescope_alignment_evaluation_image_labeled_1200.jpg)


QuoteImages of a very "boring" star are making waves across the astronomical world today – they are the first sent back from NASA's James Webb telescope, and they have exceeded all hopes and expectations.

Having completed the self-assembly of its 18-segmented main mirror, the telescope has now taken exceptional images of an unexceptional star as a test of its capabilities. The star, known as HD84406, is 100 times fainter than what can be seen with the human eye. The star itself is of little interest, lovely though its image is – instead, astronomers are captivated by the spray of tiny dots scattered across the background. Each is a distant galaxy, and this is the first time we've ever been able to capture them.

In a virtual briefing, NASA officials expressed their overwhelming joy and relief at what these first images represent.

"We said last fall that we would know that the telescope is working properly when we have an image of a star that looks like a star," says Lee Feinberg, Webb optical telescope element manager at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. "Now you're seeing that image. And I'm happy to say that the optical performance of the telescope is absolutely phenomenal, it is really working extremely well. The performance is as good if not better than our most optimistic prediction."

https://cosmosmagazine.com/space/james-webb-telescope-first-images/

Still some way to go before fully operational, but an impressive start for JWST!
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: LKB on March 24, 2022, 06:15:59 AM
I'm really looking forward to the science which will soon be coming our way. It may not be quite as exciting as Aliens, but I'll take it.  ;D
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: geralmar on April 20, 2022, 09:47:41 AM
If the universe hosts beings of superior intelligence interested in earth, why do they come here and then just dissect our cows and knock down circles in farmers' fields?

Some time ago I read the suggestion that if we really want to encounter alien intelligence we should just look at our pet dog or cat.

I am sorry; but over the decades I have evolved from "true believer" to hardened skeptic. 

An excellent site for UFO skeptics is badufos.blogspot.com

A useful site for believers is ufoimplications.com/radio_archive.html



Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: foxandpeng on April 20, 2022, 01:34:09 PM
Edit: I had forgotten that I 'have already commented on this thread. Apologies. Nevertheless...

Are aliens here?

Nope.
Title: Re: Are the aliens here?
Post by: prémont on April 20, 2022, 03:20:49 PM
Quote from: romboid on February 01, 2022, 09:29:55 AM
Some species of aliens are capable of becoming invisible.

How are you able to see this?