OK, so what's your verdict this time round?
Personally I have more understanding of Nicola Sturgeon's position after the overwhelmingly pro Remain (in the EU) vote in Scotland, although I don't want to see the break up of the UK. I thought that Gordon Brown's 'Third way' made sense, whereby Scotland would be given more autonomy and economic support whilst remaining in a type of federal United Kingdom.
I'm not Scottish by the way.
No matter what, Scotland is a wonderful place to visit (especially in the summer) and I will continue to do so.
More generally, there seems to be an obsession about changes that do not involve novel ideas, but changes that are undoing of previous accomplishments. I remember Cambridge University president saying that the the greatest achievement of his university was to have made no changes since 1262. :-\
Quote from: vandermolen on March 21, 2017, 01:52:33 PM
OK, so what's your verdict this time round?
Personally I have more understanding of Nicola Sturgeon's position after the overwhelmingly pro Remain (in the EU) vote in Scotland, although I don't want to see the break up of the UK. I thought that Gordon Brown's 'Third way' made sense, whereby Scotland would be given more autonomy and economic support whilst remaining in a type of federal United Kingdom.
I'm not Scottish by the way.
So as an American, my opinion is just that. But I actually do pay attention, since Scotland is one of those rare places of which I am inordinately fond (and have ancestors in). Last time, I was a 'Stay-er', but things have changed now. Since England seem to have chosen to go it alone, no reason Scotland need to go over the edge like a f****ng lemming right behind. I would be a 'Leave-er' this time. :-\
8)
Independent Scotland would be far more complicated than Brexit, psychologically and logistically as well as legally.
Leaving the EU merely requires undoing a couple of decades of recent history.
Breaking up the UK would require undoing four centuries of history.
Consider this:
The current monarch is descended on her father"s side from a variety of German princes, and one needs to go back to James VI of Scotland to find a Briton in the family tree, and to his grandmother to find an actual English(wo)man. Her mother was half Scot, half English. IOW, three generations are needed to link the Queen of England to an English ancestor.
The heir to the throne will push that back one generation more, since his father is British raised but not of British blood.
It will only be when Prince William (presumably) and/or his children ascend the throne that the monarch of England will have ancestry in which England predominates over Scotland.
I was a leaver before and am a leaver now. Leaving would have been and would still be a catastrophe for Scotland, but it would be a good thing for England. The self-evident petulance we see on display now is proof enough I think.
I have though been remiss in asking about our Brit members. You are safe I hope, now that the island has, post-Brexit, sunk? ;)
Kings Duncan I, Malcolm I-III and Queen Matilda are just some of my royal scottish ancestors and I'm curious to know what they think about what Scotland is considering here. Will Scotland be brave and decide to go it alone or will she not want to break up the UK? Obviously this is nothing new for Scotland, but only time will tell...
Many thanks for the thoughtful comments. The debate on independence was halted today as a result of the terrorist attack in Westminster.
I suggest a William III sort of solution . . .
Scotland in the EU will meet a lot of support from within the organization, probably also in spite of any financial difficulties, since it will mean a symbolic, positive turn of events for an EU that is under a large pressure these days.
Also, it will likely mean a strengthening of Northern Europe countries within the EU.
I don´t know the details of Scottish economy, some say that it cannot really uphold itself, but future economy will be less dependent on the large scale industries. There´s probably still some potential for green development & ditto agricultural products, tourism, internet work etc., up there.
Well if Scotland decides they want independence—whilst keeping a sustainable economy—then I hope they should be able to become independent if they so wish.
The Graun recently pointed out that if Scotland becomes independent before Brexit, its EU membership will probably be blocked by Spain. Spain has some issues with separatist movements (Catalonia, mostly) and would want to make sure the Catalans don't decide to hold an independence referendum of their own by demonstrating that independence means losing the benefits of EU membership. On the other hand, if Scotland delays its referendum until the UK is no longer an EU member it will have an easier path towards accession. Which I guess makes sense but I don't see why Spain won't block them anyway.
Quote from: amw on March 23, 2017, 12:40:03 AM
The Graun recently pointed out that if Scotland becomes independent before Brexit, its EU membership will probably be blocked by Spain. Spain has some issues with separatist movements (Catalonia, mostly) and would want to make sure the Catalans don't decide to hold an independence referendum of their own by demonstrating that independence means losing the benefits of EU membership. On the other hand, if Scotland delays its referendum until the UK is no longer an EU member it will have an easier path towards accession. Which I guess makes sense but I don't see why Spain won't block them anyway.
Yes, I've heard that too.
Quote from: amw on March 23, 2017, 12:40:03 AM
The Graun recently pointed out that if Scotland becomes independent before Brexit, its EU membership will probably be blocked by Spain. Spain has some issues with separatist movements (Catalonia, mostly) and would want to make sure the Catalans don't decide to hold an independence referendum of their own by demonstrating that independence means losing the benefits of EU membership. On the other hand, if Scotland delays its referendum until the UK is no longer an EU member it will have an easier path towards accession. Which I guess makes sense but I don't see why Spain won't block them anyway.
Spain's position on this issue, as far as I see it, is slightly schizophrenic (for lack of a better word). We tend to be very pro-European as a whole, and deep down wouldn't mind a part of the UK (or "ex-UK" after this hypothetical referendum) remianing within the EU post-Brexit. But, Spain will most likley never recognise a "secessionist" European region's (or country's) right to accede to (or remain within) the EU, so as not to encourage our own secessionist regions (Catalonia).
The general opinion these days, though, is that the independence movement in Catalonia is disintegrating (very noisily, and with what the French would call "
une fuite en avant"). If this secessionist problem loses thrust and fades into the background (a rather likely scenario), then Spain might (only just) be somewhat more flexible concerning an independent Scotland eventually joining the EU.
Quote from: ritter on March 23, 2017, 05:43:11 AM
Spain's position on this issue, as far as I see it, is slightly schizophrenic (for lack of a better word). We tend to be very pro-European as a whole, and deep down wouldn't mind a part of the UK (or "ex-UK" after this hypothetical referendum) remianing within the EU post-Brexit. But, Spain will most likley never recognise a "secessionist" European region's (or country's) right to accede to (or remain within) the EU, so as not to encourage our own secessionist regions (Catalonia).
The general opinion these days, though, is that the independence movement in Catalonia is disintegrating (very noisily, and with what the French would call "une fuite en avant"). If this secessionist problem loses thrust and fades into the background (a rather likely scenario), then Spain might (only just) be somewhat more flexible concerning an independent Scotland eventually joining the EU.
What is so inconsistent here is that, as it requires just one EU member state to do what you're suggesting that Spain might do in order to ensure that an independent Scotland's application for membership of EU be vetoed, why did it not require just one EU member state to veto Brexit? (especially since all 27 other EU members states rather than just one appear to be against it)?
Quote from: Spineur on March 21, 2017, 02:09:25 PM
No matter what, Scotland is a wonderful place to visit (especially in the summer) and I will continue to do so.
More generally, there seems to be an obsession about changes that do not involve novel ideas, but changes that are undoing of previous accomplishments. I remember Cambridge University president saying that the the greatest achievement of his university was to have made no changes since 1262. :-\
My last trip to Berlin, I met a Turk (airport baggage handler), friendly chap with whom I exchanged emails and sadly lost touch of - his wife was very sick and the worst was feared. Sent him some books about Scotland to cheer him and never heard from him again. Anyway, the dude LOVED Scotland more than life itself. Owned a kilt even and told me he lived for the next time he could go. I thought it so interesting, a Turk in Scotland...obsessed therewith and cherishing every moment. Told me he kissed the ground on arriving and leaving. Really, shouldn't he made a Scot? And I a jelly donut?
Quote from: ahinton on March 23, 2017, 06:10:44 AM
why did it not require just one EU member state to veto Brexit?
Very simple and logical: because leaving an organization is the exclusive right of those leaving it, while becoming member of an organization requires the approval of those who are already members.
As an American, my primary concern is with military security. US air bases in the UK are all in England, so that's fine. The big issue from such a viewpoint would be how England and Scotland would work out Royal Navy base access, which does have implications for US security. I'm sure some pot sweetener could be added to make sure naval operations continue on smoothly as that would be in both nations' interest. If this can be sorted out, I'm indifferent.
While it wouldn't concern me, I am interested in seeing how an independent Scotland would handle the issues of currency and decreased transfer payments from the central government of the UK. Those are two rather major issues.
As for independence - personally I am wary of such things. We are at a point in world history where we need greater community NOT the fracturing we are seeing all over the place. And this goes for at home as well as abroad. While the Tower of Babble is not a necessary result...yahooo, here we R&)@FH3O+&! Remember, Trump applauded Brexit, that means logically it must have been a bad thing. >:(
Check out this interesting report on the economic effects of populism. I've not finished reading it yet myself, but believe it of likely and timely interest to folks here: https://www.bridgewater.com/resources/bwam032217.pdf
I'm all for the Scottish people doing what they want, however, Sturgeon is a politician, and politicians often find it more profitable to make aspirational noise than to actually get what they say they want. For example, Boris Johnson, as soon as the EU referendum results were in, disappeared, then made it clear that he would not be standing in the leadership contest to replace David Cameron — he wanted to be a comfort to defeated leave voters, the "I'm on your side" PM, perhaps in the next general election, not the "now I have to sort this all out" PM. Cameron himself promised immediate triggering of Article 50 should the referendum result in favour of leaving the EU, but his first act was to resign. Donald Trump promised to drain the swamp, by most people's count he just added more and bigger 'gators with sharper teeth. Even the EU's top people, those stalwart defenders of peace and love who are such wonderful paragons of virtue that they threatened us with all sorts of retribution following the referendum, have changed their tune pretty quickly, mainly because the underlying rhythm was that of them twiddling their thumbs, the harmonies voices of journalists looking for juicy sound bites. Politicians do politics: 10% perspiration, 90% versification.
I don't trust Theresa May or David Davis or the cohort of specialists drafted to tackle the negotiations with the EU, and I don't think we'll be in the greatest of positions when we finally step out the door in 2019 (and if we are, it'll be down to the confluence of many, many things not under our control), but there is the underlying sense that stubborn, stiff upper-lipped Britain will prevail no matter what you throw at it, and we do like a challenge. I think Scotland is better off waiting to see what happens before running full pelt off that cliff everyone keeps telling us is right under our feet, and even then I wouldn't trust Sturgeon as far as I could throw her.
Quote from: Crudblud on March 25, 2017, 07:15:42 AM
I'm all for the Scottish people doing what they want, however, Sturgeon is a politician, and politicians often find it more profitable to make aspirational noise than to actually get what they say they want. For example, Boris Johnson, as soon as the EU referendum results were in, disappeared, then made it clear that he would not be standing in the leadership contest to replace David Cameron — he wanted to be a comfort to defeated leave voters, the "I'm on your side" PM, perhaps in the next general election, not the "now I have to sort this all out" PM. Cameron himself promised immediate triggering of Article 50 should the referendum result in favour of leaving the EU, but his first act was to resign. Donald Trump promised to drain the swamp, by most people's count he just added more and bigger 'gators with sharper teeth. Even the EU's top people, those stalwart defenders of peace and love who are such wonderful paragons of virtue that they threatened us with all sorts of retribution following the referendum, have changed their tune pretty quickly, mainly because the underlying rhythm was that of them twiddling their thumbs, the harmonies voices of journalists looking for juicy sound bites. Politicians do politics: 10% perspiration, 90% versification.
I don't trust Theresa May or David Davis or the cohort of specialists drafted to tackle the negotiations with the EU, and I don't think we'll be in the greatest of positions when we finally step out the door in 2019 (and if we are, it'll be down to the confluence of many, many things not under our control), but there is the underlying sense that stubborn, stiff upper-lipped Britain will prevail no matter what you throw at it, and we do like a challenge. I think Scotland is better off waiting to see what happens before running full pelt off that cliff everyone keeps telling us is right under our feet, and even then I wouldn't trust Sturgeon as far as I could throw her.
Boris was betrayed by a key backer abandoning him. There goes your argument in flames.
Quote from: Ken B on March 25, 2017, 08:42:15 AM
Boris was betrayed by a key backer abandoning him. There goes your argument in flames.
An example of a politician not being trustworthy defeats the argument (though it is practically a truism) that politicians are not trustworthy? Interesting.
Quote from: ritter on March 23, 2017, 05:43:11 AM
Spain's position on this issue, as far as I see it, is slightly schizophrenic (for lack of a better word). We tend to be very pro-European as a whole, and deep down wouldn't mind a part of the UK (or "ex-UK" after this hypothetical referendum) remianing within the EU post-Brexit. But, Spain will most likley never recognise a "secessionist" European region's (or country's) right to accede to (or remain within) the EU, so as not to encourage our own secessionist regions (Catalonia).
The general opinion these days, though, is that the independence movement in Catalonia is disintegrating (very noisily, and with what the French would call "une fuite en avant"). If this secessionist problem loses thrust and fades into the background (a rather likely scenario), then Spain might (only just) be somewhat more flexible concerning an independent Scotland eventually joining the EU.
If I understand it correctly, a Catalonian independence referendum (of the sort that Artur Mas already called and had) is completely unconstitutional and have no legal binding whatsoever.
Quote from: Florestan on March 25, 2017, 10:39:21 AM
If I understand it correctly, a Catalonian independence referendum (of the sort that Artur Mas already called and had) is completely unconstitutional and have no legal binding whatsoever.
That is correct...but the people pushig for it don't really care about these minor legal quibbles...
Quote from: ritter on March 25, 2017, 10:45:02 AM
That is correct...but the people pushig for it don't really care about these minor legal quibbles...
These people should be put in jail for sedition. ;D
Quote from: Crudblud on March 25, 2017, 09:55:50 AM
An example of a politician not being trustworthy defeats the argument (though it is practically a truism) that politicians are not trustworthy? Interesting.
Half your post was an exploded fantasy about Boris Johnson.
Quote from: Ken B on March 25, 2017, 11:14:07 AM
Half your post was an exploded fantasy about Boris Johnson.
Less than a sixth, and not even a fantasy. I don't know why anyone thinks Boris wanted to be the Brexit PM, seemed perfectly clear to me that he wanted to run the referendum to a close loss. Boris has always been strongly in favour of the EU, the real objective was to prove he had what it takes to run a good campaign, thereby putting him in strong standing for any future leadership contest, but crucially in a UK that was still firmly within the EU. Nigel Farage's "Leave.eu" campaign tipping the scales in the leave vote's favour was the spanner in the works, not Gove. When Cameron stepped down Theresa May was almost certainly going to succeed him, Gove standing in the contest was merely a symbolic showing from the Leave campaign, which in real terms had suffered a loss and promptly withdrawn.
That's my take. Obviously, we can't know what was actually going through Boris's mind at the time, but in my view Gove's "betrayal" is far too simplistic and ingenuous a reading of the situation. Regardless, I don't think it has much bearing on the point of my original post.
I think a Scottish independence might just happen....
Ultimately this is about self determination, to be the master of your nation's own fate.
Given the choice, the Scots would opt for society along the Scandinavian model. But no way in hell this will ever happen as you long as they're tied into the current British political system. A true federation would go a long way, but who believes the British political establishment will ever seriously consider that? Apart from a few with functioning brains and a realistic vision, who incidentally are all in favour of staying in the EU. Perhaps that option will be on the table when it is already too late....
The union with England mainly served British imperial interests, not Scottish interests. And the natural resources that came with it, including previously valuable oil reserves came as a nice bonus. Scotland underwent this arrangement because it was geographically and economically dependent on England and unable to defend itself.
Now the value of the oil reserves is no longer a major factor, Scots are warned not to leave considering the financial and economic dependency on the UK.
On the other hand polls show that a significant portion of the British couldn't care less if the Scottish went their own way, and insisted that follwing through with Brexit was more important than retaining the union with Scotland...After all, Scotland costs only the (English) tax payer a lot of money....
I think that leaves rather weak sentiments on either side for staying together: the fear of going it alone and possible financial and economic hardship on the Scottish side vs the desire to "keep the (last remnants of) the Empire together". If we can draw any conclusions from Brexit, it is that economic considerations are not always decisive and that the (perceived) possibility of "regaining" controle will outweigh anything else.
A lot will depend on how bad Brexit will turn out to be. But as soon as the Scots have the feeling they have very little to lose, it is game over for the Empire....
The Scottish PM Sturgeon made incidentally a mistake in the way she connected Brexit with a referendum independence. According to her a vote in favour of Scottish independence would mean a vote in favour of a membership of the European Union. But I don't think her electorate sees it like that....
A lot of Scottish nationalists are actually Eurosceptic.... And a lot of "Remainers" previously in favour of independence within the EU, will want to avoid further destabilisation and a "hard" economic border between Scotland and England.
I am in no position to give Sturgeon political advice but the common middle ground is hard to miss: independence with a Norwegian style relationship with the EU through a membership if the European Free Trade Association will provide free access to the European internal market while offering a customised deal with the EU on fishery and possibly immigration and a special free trade deal with England. This will be satisfactory to both nationalist and those in favour if a close (economic) relationship with both the EU snd England.
My predictions:
1) Scotland will become independent and subsequently join the EFTA (Unlike the UK, it will be welcomed by Norway with open arms).
2) Northern Ireland will accept an offer to become a part of the Irish Republic under a special autonomous status which will continue the present political arrangements of power sharing.
3) Gibraltar might accept the Spanish offer that is already on the table for joint sovereignty, to avoid an economic catastrophe.
We are witnessing the last breaths of the British Empire.....
Unless the UK reinvents itself as a federation, I don't think the Scottish will be staying on board of the Titanic just because the last bottles of champagne are still being served in the lounge....
And the sad irony of it all is that Brexiteers are destroying the one thing they want to preserve.
Q
NIce analysis, Que. I quite agree.
Sure. While they're at it, they should build a Hadrian's wall to keep the English riff-raff out, and depose / retire their regent 'royalty' as well.
Why go down with the ship when you weren't even a consulted passenger?
https://www.youtube.com/v/ECh_rZklkMA
Self-determination, master of your nation's fate. That's the argument for Brexit, Que and Andrei. Glad to see you two have come around on the issue.
Quote from: Ken B on April 01, 2017, 06:32:43 AM
Self-determination, master of your nation's fate. That's the argument for Brexit, Que and Andrei. Glad to see you two have come around on the issue.
I have never been against "self-determination, master of your nation's fate" --- provided one's vote is not based on propaganda and lies. Speaking of which, are you aware that Nigel Farage stated in plain English that if Brexit goes nasty for England he seriously considers moving to the US?
Quote from: Ken B on April 01, 2017, 06:32:43 AM
Self-determination, master of your nation's fate. That's the argument for Brexit, Que and Andrei. Glad to see you two have come around on the issue.
Indeed the same argument, as Sturgeon has already pointed out to May, but in important respects quite a different situation....
Unlike Scotland, Britain (England) isn't ruled by another power. No matter how much propaganda there has been to the contrary....
The fact that Britain is able and free to walk away, is sufficient evidence in case. And compromising in a mutually benificial relation on equal footing is a characteristic that does apply more to the European Union than to the British union.....
As to control over one's own fate, Britain as one of the three key countries (the no. 2, I would say) within the world's foremost alliance between democratic nations, is actually
loosing influence over it's own destiny by going at it alone.
The Scots, however, might end up in a similar situation as Norway if they play their cards right.
Sounds not bad for a nation of 6 million people, if you ask me....
Q
Quote from: Monsieur Croche on April 01, 2017, 05:45:07 AM
Sure. While they're at it, they should build a Hadrian's wall to keep the English riff-raff out, and depose / retire their regent 'royalty' as well.
Why go down with the ship when you weren't even a consulted passenger?
https://www.youtube.com/v/ECh_rZklkMA
That's absolutely hilarious! :D
Quote from: Florestan on April 01, 2017, 07:23:22 AM
Speaking of which, are you aware that Nigel Farage stated in plain English that if Brexit goes nasty for England he seriously considers moving to the US?
After convincing the passengers that the ship should head towards the icebergs at full steam, he's heading for the life boats.... 8)
Q
Quote from: Ken B on April 01, 2017, 06:32:43 AM
master of your nation's fate.
Who is this master you refer to,
Ken? One of the several --- ranging from (much) less than ten to (much) more than two hundred --- millions voters? Hardly a master, then, unless he votes in the majority --- and this boils down not to who is right but to who is more numerically powerful. ;D
I'm no longer an active citizen living at home, but expedite Brexit, and let the Scots go, I say.
Quote from: Scion7 on April 01, 2017, 09:12:47 AM
I'm no longer an active citizen living at home, but expedite Brexit, and let the Scots go, I say.
Plus whatever is the maximum allowed.
I still await a remotely coherent response to my question about Canada and a tighter political confederation with the USA. Not even the most rabid anti Brexit types think that a good idea. Virtually no Canadian dies, the idea is a joke. But if Brexit is crazy, dangerous, ridiculous, beyond the pale, as at least some here say, then why isn't closer political union with the United States at least arguable?
Theresa May wants a mandate but by getting one she may be giving Nicola Sturgeon a mandate for #IndyRef2 too.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/general-election-will-vote-scottish-independence/
Interesting quandary for Tory remainers.
Quote from: Que on April 01, 2017, 12:53:42 AMMy predictions:
1) Scotland will become independent and subsequently join the EFTA (Unlike the UK, it will be welcomed by Norway with open arms).
2) Northern Ireland will accept an offer to become a part of the Irish Republic under a special autonomous status which will continue the present political arrangements of power sharing.
3) Gibraltar might accept the Spanish offer that is already on the table for joint sovereignty, to avoid an economic catastrophe.
We are witnessing the last breaths of the British Empire.....
Unless the UK reinvents itself as a federation, I don't think the Scottish will be staying on board of the Titanic just because the last bottles of champagne are still being served in the lounge....
And the sad irony of it all is that Brexiteers are destroying the one thing they want to preserve.
1) & 2), yes, especially now that May's called the snap UK General Election that she swore she wouldn't; not sure about 3). But why would it be expected to end there? Do you envisage that an independent Scotland would remain intact rather than break into pieces? Do you imagine that England would likewise remain intact rather than move towards a break-up into various regions, one being London? Will France remain a single nation should it vote for le Pen and move to leave EU? And so on...
Quote from: ahinton on April 18, 2017, 04:07:31 AM
1) & 2), yes, especially now that May's called the snap UK General Election that she swore she wouldn't; not sure about 3). But why would it be expected to end there? Do you envisage that an independent Scotland would remain intact rather than break into pieces? Do you imagine that England would likewise remain intact rather than move towards a break-up into various regions, one being London? Will France remain a single nation should it vote for le Pen and move to leave EU? And so on...
Well, apart from taking it
ad absurdum, you're right in the sense that one (major) breakaway might lead to others...
Once the seeds of division and discord are sown, nothing good will come of it.
Nationhood is built on a shared identity and destiny. And the whole Brexit process doesn't seem in the best interest of all the constituent parts of the United Kingdom....while the majority couldn't care less...
I guess we'll just have to wait and see how this plays out. All three options I described are seriously discussed.
Q
Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon admits Scotland might not seek immediate membership of the EU if she won a second referendum, saying a 'phased approach' may be needed. Speaking on BBC1's Andrew Marr Show on Sunday, Sturgeon says Scotland may have to pursue membership of the European Free Trade Association (Efta) (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2017/may/14/independent-scotland-may-need-phased-return-eu-sturgeon-video)
She cracked it....
Q
Quote from: Que on May 14, 2017, 12:20:37 PM
Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon admits Scotland might not seek immediate membership of the EU if she won a second referendum, saying a 'phased approach' may be needed. Speaking on BBC1's Andrew Marr Show on Sunday, Sturgeon says Scotland may have to pursue membership of the European Free Trade Association (Efta) (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2017/may/14/independent-scotland-may-need-phased-return-eu-sturgeon-video)
She cracked it....
Q
I much preferred EFTA to the EU (although I'm a remainer). Did we (UK) ever actually leave EFTA?
Quote from: vandermolen on May 14, 2017, 12:28:15 PM
I much preferred EFTA to the EU (although I'm a remainer). Did we (UK) ever actually leave EFTA?
Yes, the UK left EFTA when joining the European Community.
Q
Quote from: Que on May 14, 2017, 12:41:58 PM
Yes, the UK left EFTA when joining the European Community.
Q
Thanks
Quote from: vandermolen on May 14, 2017, 02:21:59 PM
Thanks
You're welcome. :)
There is still some academic discussion on whether leaving the EU also means that the UK is no longer party to the Treaty on the European Economic Area (EEA), which creates the internal market between the EFTA members (minus Switzerland) and the (members of) the EU. But not more than an a academic exercise, I would say.
Back to Scotland: it seems Sturgeon is now aiming at a referendum on independence at the (possibly disastrous) end of the Brexit negotiation process, as well as a joining EFTA after independence for a quick and soft landing for Scotland.
As said before, this will IMO convince both staunch Scottish nationalists and pro European internationalists...
Seems like the best tactic to get a majority in favour of independence.
I forsee many trips to Norway in the future to prepare for a EFTA membership ... No doubt the EU will agree to Scotland joining the EEA as well.
Q
Quote from: Que on May 14, 2017, 10:44:52 PM
You're welcome. :)
There is still some academic discussion on whether leaving the EU also means that the UK is no longer party to the Treaty on the European Economic Area (EEA), which creates the internal market between the EFTA members (minus Switzerland) and the (members of) the EU. But not more than an a academic exercise, I would say.
Back to Scotland: it seems Sturgeon is now aiming at a referendum on independence at the (possibly disastrous) end of the Brexit negotiation process, as well as a joining EFTA after independence for a quick and soft landing for Scotland.
As said before, this will IMO convince both staunch Scottish nationalists and pro European internationalists...
Seems like the best tactic to get a majority in favour of independence.
I forsee many trips to Norway in the future to prepare for a EFTA membership ... No doubt the EU will agree to Scotland joining the EEA as well.
Q
I voted to leave the EEC in the 1973 referendum or whenever it was (first time I was old enough to vote) in those days I saw it as a betrayal of our Commonwealth connections. This time I voted Remain. I have never ever voted for either a candidate or decision that has actually been successful! I liked EFTA because it appeared to be a trading association without the political implications of the EEC. Yes, the break up of the UK is a possibility (will there be a Scottish entry for Eurovision in the future?) 8)
Interesting development:
Theresa May: Tories will invest heavily in Scotland after Brexit
PM appeals to unionist, pro-Brexit and Labour voters, saying Conservatives will help Scotland 'grow and flourish' (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/19/theresa-may-tories-will-invest-heavily-in-scotland-after-brexit)
Why would May makes such promises? Because she likes spending more money on Scotland? ::)
I highly doubt it....
Q
Quote from: Que on May 21, 2017, 12:52:53 AM
Interesting development:
Theresa May: Tories will invest heavily in Scotland after Brexit
PM appeals to unionist, pro-Brexit and Labour voters, saying Conservatives will help Scotland 'grow and flourish' (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/19/theresa-may-tories-will-invest-heavily-in-scotland-after-brexit)
Why would May makes such promises? Because she likes spending more money on Scotland? ::)
I highly doubt it....
Q
To win votes.
Notice the implicit premise: that there will be Scottish votes to win. That is, that Scottish independence ain't gonna happen. A safe assumption when the referendum wasn't even close.
Quote from: Ken B on May 21, 2017, 06:00:55 AM
To win votes.
Notice the implicit premise: that there will be Scottish votes to win. That is, that Scottish independence ain't gonna happen. A safe assumption when the referendum wasn't even close.
Seems like a lot of effort for votes May does not need...at all... to win the elections..... ::)
An alternative explanation is that she is tryimg to dissuade a good portion of the Scottish electorate to vote for independence.
Now.... bribing voters is to oldest trick in the book and usually very effective, but it is also a sign of weakness.
IMO the strongest clue sofar that the Conservatives actually worry about the effect of Brexit on the Union with Scotland.
As for the courted Scottish electorate, I would say that like any promise by any politician anywhere: here today, gone tomorrow.... 8)
Q
Quote from: Que on May 22, 2017, 10:58:07 AM
Seems like a lot of effort for votes May does not need...at all... to win the elections..... ::)
An alternative explanation is that she is tryimg to dissuade a good portion of the Scottish electorate to vote for independence.
Now.... bribing voters is to oldest trick in the book and usually very effective, but it is also a sign of weakness.
IMO the strongest clue sofar that the Conservatives actually worry about the effect of Brexit on the Union with Scotland.
As for the courted Scottish electorate, I would say that like any promise by any politician anywhere: here today, gone tomorrow.... 8)
Q
I hope you are right. I want Scottish independence, as an Anglophile. But it sounds to me like you are looking for ways to feel justified in your opinion of Brexit ("even Brexiters know it's bad!!"). There is no need to bribe the Scots to stay any more than Cameron already bribed them, but there is always an incentive to bribe voters for seats.
Did you see her lead has been cut in half recently?
Quote from: Ken B on May 22, 2017, 12:26:14 PM
I hope you are right. I want Scottish independence, as an Anglophile.
I'm aware of the phenomenon - some Brexiteers see the Scots rather go than stay - but never quite got the logic behind it...
The less is left of the Empire, the better? ::)
QuoteBut it sounds to me like you are looking for ways to feel justified in your opinion of Brexit ("even Brexiters know it's bad!!").
From a continental perspective Brexit doesn't necessarily needs to be a bad thing: the UK was a strong force behind the expansion of the EU and a strong force
against any further political and economic integration. Some of the leading factors that got the EU in the mess it is now....
From a UK perspective however, Brexit is incomprehensible, illogical....
It already had the "best deal" imaginable, better than anyone else had. And now it wants an even better deal...
QuoteThere is no need to bribe the Scots to stay any more than Cameron already bribed them, but there is always an incentive to bribe voters for seats.
Did you see her lead has been cut in half recently?
Yes, I read it... :)
May runs the risk of loosing the votes of left wing Brexiteers, who now know voting for Labout isn't going to derail Brexit anyway.
The real battles are going to be with the EU over Brexit, and I think, subsequently over Scotland.
Q