GMG Classical Music Forum

The Back Room => The Diner => Topic started by: JBS on March 12, 2020, 07:03:50 PM

Title: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 12, 2020, 07:03:50 PM
It seems appropriate to have  a dedicated thread to COVID 19, given it's a worldwide event.
So here it is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: greg on March 12, 2020, 07:44:49 PM
I just wanna work from home next week so I can play video games most of the day. Would be a blessing in disguise.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Que on March 12, 2020, 08:11:25 PM
I just wanna work from home next week so I can play video games most of the day. Would be a blessing in disguise.

Oh, you think the whole thing will be done in a week’s time? ::)
Not in a week, not in a month, and probably not not even in year’s time...
This virus is here to stay. Normality will only be restored when the larger part of the world population has developed a certain level of immune response, either through recovery after infection or through inocculation with a vaccine.
Estimations are that during this “first wave” of the epidemic 40-70% of the world population will get infected.

Q
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: greg on March 12, 2020, 08:22:43 PM
Oh, you think the whole thing will be done in a week’s time? ::)
Not in a week, not in a month, and probably not not even in year’s time...
This virus is here to stay. Normality will only be restored when the larger part of the world population has developed a certain level of immune response, either through recovery after infection or through inocculation with a vaccine.
Estimations are that during this “first wave” of the epidemic 40-70% of the world population will get infected.

Q
Forgot to add the word "starting" before "next week"...
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Daverz on March 12, 2020, 08:55:11 PM
I'm all set for my food supply, but I'm worried about water*.  All the advisories say to have 3 weeks of water stored.  Assuming conditions get so bad that the water supply is shut off or undrinkable, I only have enough containers here at home for about 10 gallons of water.   

* OK, I admit I'm worried about the beer supply as well. 8)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: epicous on March 12, 2020, 09:14:42 PM
Was this virus created in laboratories?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 12, 2020, 09:26:12 PM
Was this virus created in laboratories?

No. Wuhan has a virology lab, but there's a global consensus among scientists that this originated in nature - in some not yet fully understood way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 12, 2020, 10:30:18 PM
Re: Panic buying

My daughter has texted me that one of her former colleagues is stock-piling custard.
Sounds sensible to me.

Thank you Jeffrey (JBS not me) for starting this thread. I was going to do this myself but thought that people have probably had enough of new threads from me.

A lot of people are working from home. East Sussex where I live (famous last words) does not currently have any cases as far as I'm aware, although there is believed to be a big discrepancy between official confirmed cases and the real situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 12, 2020, 10:43:00 PM
Was this virus created in laboratories?

I agree with Simon NZ although a friend contacted me yesterday pointing out that the American author Dean Koontz's novel 'The Eyes of Darkness' (1981) features a global pandemic breaking out in 2020 as a consequence of a biological weapon called 'Wuhan-400'!

https://www.india.com/lifestyle/did-authors-dean-koontz-and-sylvia-browne-really-predict-coronavirus-outbreak-back-in-1981-and-2008-3967957/

My school is staying open for now and lots of the children live abroad anyway. All the overseas school trips are cancelled. The UK governments is facing criticism for not going further, like the French or Irish for example, but I'm not sure that they are wrong and they seem to be following the advice of medical experts.

I was due to travel to Coventry today for a History examiner's meeting but that has been cancelled which I think is sensible.

Hope everyone here (GMG forum not just UK) keeps safe and well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 13, 2020, 01:22:33 AM
The UK governments is facing criticism for not going further, like the French or Irish for example, but I'm not sure that they are wrong and they seem to be following the advice of medical experts.



It's hard for me to believe that the UK is being uniquely clear sighted, and the rest of the world is confused. But it's possible.

I can't find anywhere any details of the model that the British government is using, so that I can understand their response. Surely this must be in the public domain.

I haven't checked, but ditto for the (opposed?) model that the French government is using.

Que -- is there a united EC approach to this, a set of policies which give guidelines to all EU countries about (for example) when to close schools, restrict travel etc? Or is each country using a different model and following different objectives?

I would have thought that openness would be a good thing on this sort of situation, just to get the buy in of the people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 13, 2020, 01:27:47 AM
What I can't find anywhere is any details of the model that the British government is using, so that I can understand their response. Surely this must be in the public domain.

I haven't checked, but ditto for the (opposed?) model that the French government is using.

Que -- is there a united EC approach to this, a set of policies which give guidelines to all EU countries about (for example) when to close schools, restrict travel etc? Or is each country using a different model and following different objectives?
Interesting. I'm not sure what, if any, model they are following. I think they are just going by the advice of the Govt's Chief Medical Officer. The News today say that the majority of the people need to get the virus in order to build up 'herd immunity' otherwise it will keep coming back every year. Not a nice thought though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Jo498 on March 13, 2020, 01:32:49 AM
A federal state like Germany has trouble getting 16 states and the federal goverment to take the same or similar measures, so I am pretty sure the EU will not be able to streamline measures and reactions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 13, 2020, 01:33:02 AM
Interesting. I'm not sure what, if any, model they are following. I think they are just going by the advice of the Govt's Chief Medical Officer. The News today say that the majority of the people need to get the virus in order to build up 'herd immunity' otherwise it will keep coming back every year. Not a nice thought though.

Sure, but what I want to see is the thinking, the details of the thinking, which has led to the Govt's Chief Medical Officer's advice. Which may or may not be consistent with the details of the thinking which lead to the French Government's health minister's advice . . . The devil's in the detail.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 13, 2020, 01:33:53 AM
A federal state like Germany has trouble getting 16 states and the federal goverment to take the same or similar measures, so I am pretty sure the EU will not be able to streamline measures and reactions.

That's extraordinary in a situation like this. Very bad.

Presumably everyone will agree on objectives (minimise deaths . . .) and the biology remains the same wherever you are, though clearly the health infrastructure, demographics, geography etc doesn't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 13, 2020, 01:54:53 AM
Here's something with a bit of detail about the model

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51858987
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: ritter on March 13, 2020, 02:41:04 AM
A federal state like Germany has trouble getting 16 states and the federal goverment to take the same or similar measures, so I am pretty sure the EU will not be able to streamline measures and reactions.
Same here in Spain. Each autonomous region has the authority to act how it sees fit. Only yesterday did the Prime Minister step in and issue recommendations applicable to the whole country (now that the Madrid region is severly affected, and activity here is coming to an almost complete stanstill).
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Rinaldo on March 13, 2020, 03:00:57 AM
The aptly named "Stay the f*ck home" campaign is getting traction here in Czech Rep. Our government has shut down schools, gyms, concert halls and other public places + restaurants and bars must close after 8pm. I'm glad people are finally coming to their senses – Italy serves as a dire warning.

“Act as if you’re infected and don’t want to pass it on. Not as if you’re trying to avoid being infected” is the best piece of advice I've encountered so far.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: 71 dB on March 13, 2020, 03:11:40 AM
Was this virus created in laboratories?

To my understanding the cause of this outbreak was inadequate hygieny regulations regarding live animal markets in China. Different animals are kept above each other in cages so that the animals below other animals are exposed to the feaces and viruses are transmitted. If China doesn't fix this, the World can expect a new pandemic every 10 years or so...  :-X
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 13, 2020, 05:07:19 AM
Was this virus created in laboratories?

No, but certain conspiracy theorists are fond to think so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 13, 2020, 05:12:56 AM
When Gov. Baker declared the state of emergency in Mass. on Tuesday, I decided that I would go out only for therapy and church. As a good precaution (most of our parishioners are no longer young people) the church leadership cancelled last night's choir rehearsal and Sunday's service.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Gurn Blanston on March 13, 2020, 05:34:31 AM
To my understanding the cause of this outbreak was inadequate hygieny regulations regarding live animal markets in China. Different animals are kept above each other in cages so that the animals below other animals are exposed to the feaces and viruses are transmitted. If China doesn't fix this, the World can expect a new pandemic every 10 years or so...  :-X


That's just what I understand and believe. I would just expand it a bit and say "wild caught animals", not livestock. Wild animals are a major cuisine item in China. According to a news item I saw recently, the Peoples' Congress (which I disremember the actual name of) banned the capture and sale of all wild animals. This is so anti-cultural that even in a closely regulated society like theirs, I can hardly imagine it being enforceable. It will just open up yet another black market opportunity. Still, the intent is good.

Maybe a bit less than 10 years?  SARS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, This shit: all within the last 10 years, IIRC. :-\

8)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: ritter on March 13, 2020, 05:58:17 AM
Spain’s Prime Minister will make an institutional announcement soon (it was scheduled for 2:30 pm, but is now delayed). He’s expected to declare the (constitutionally envisaged) “state of alarm” in the whole country. This “state of alarm” is one step short of a “state of exception “, but permits certain rights to be curtailed (e.g., restriction of movement, closure of borders, requisition of private property and intervention of factories, etc.).

At a local level, the Madrid City Hall has ordered the closure of all restaurants, bars and gyms (theatres, museums, libraries et al. were closed earlier this week).

Some towns in the province of Barcelona (around Igualada) are cordoned off, with no one allowed in or out, and residents asked to stay at home as much as possible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Rinaldo on March 13, 2020, 07:22:25 AM
Trump administration blocks states from using Medicaid to respond to coronavirus crisis (https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-03-13/trump-administration-blocks-states-use-medicaid-respond-coronavirus-crisis)

Yay.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 13, 2020, 07:34:09 AM

     (https://img.thedailybeast.com/image/upload/c_crop,d_placeholder_euli9k,h_1545,w_2748,x_0,y_0/dpr_1.5/c_limit,w_1044/fl_lossy,q_auto/v1584108728/RTS35U8C_vjhsrh)

     
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Gurn Blanston on March 13, 2020, 07:51:34 AM
     (https://img.thedailybeast.com/image/upload/c_crop,d_placeholder_euli9k,h_1545,w_2748,x_0,y_0/dpr_1.5/c_limit,w_1044/fl_lossy,q_auto/v1584108728/RTS35U8C_vjhsrh)

   

Wouldn't THAT be cool? :)

8)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: greg on March 13, 2020, 08:01:04 AM
No, but certain conspiracy theorists are fond to think so.
Probably because of the biolab that is like a block away from where the virus is thought to have originated. Seems like too much of a big coincidence.

Probably someone from the lab didn't wash their hands and walked over to the market and started touch food that other people would eat.

If it is a conspiracy then would it be the CCP trying to distract people from negative press (Hong Kong, Uyghurs)? It kinda worked but it wouldn't make sense comsidering how much it would backfire... or they really are that dumb?

(my bet is not on conspiracy, though)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 13, 2020, 08:16:18 AM
In music news, the CSO just cancelled all concerts until mid-April.

We were planning to go to New York and Philadelphia at the end of March, but we cancelled that about a week ago.

My life is otherwise not much affected, since I work at home and other than the trip, didn't have any upcoming events scheduled.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 13, 2020, 09:12:55 AM
Wouldn't THAT be cool? :)

8)

     I didn't mean that, I meant something else. My mission is to destroy the myths of "belief makes truth" wherever I find them. They can be fatal.

“The evil in the world comes almost always from ignorance, and goodwill can cause as much damage as ill-will if it is not enlightened. People are more often good than bad, though in fact that is not the question. But they are more or less ignorant and this is what one calls vice or virtue, the most appalling vice being the ignorance that thinks it knows everything and which consequently authorizes itself to kill. The murderer's soul is blind, and there is no true goodness or fine love without the greatest possible degree of clear-sightedness.”


― Albert Camus, The Plague
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 13, 2020, 09:39:40 AM
I agree with Simon NZ although a friend contacted me yesterday pointing out that the American author Dean Koontz's novel 'The Eyes of Darkness' (1981) features a global pandemic breaking out in 2020 as a consequence of a biological weapon called 'Wuhan-400'!

https://www.india.com/lifestyle/did-authors-dean-koontz-and-sylvia-browne-really-predict-coronavirus-outbreak-back-in-1981-and-2008-3967957/

My school is staying open for now and lots of the children live abroad anyway. All the overseas school trips are cancelled. The UK governments is facing criticism for not going further, like the French or Irish for example, but I'm not sure that they are wrong and they seem to be following the advice of medical experts.

I was due to travel to Coventry today for a History examiner's meeting but that has been cancelled which I think is sensible.

Hope everyone here (GMG forum not just UK) keeps safe and well.

Epidemic outbreaks have long fascinated writers and Hollywood. Not to mention all the stories about Jews poisoning wells during the Great Plague, etc.

Koontz wrote his novel in 1981 and set the action (epidemic outbreak) in Gorki, Russia - the archenemy and bogeyman of the USA in the Reagan years. The novel was reedited in 1989 and the plot moved to Wuhan, China (Russia was fast going down and no longer as scary a global threat in the Gorbachev years). Why Wuhan? Divination? ESP? Fluke? In any case, the epidemic described by Koontz didn’t look like what we have on our hands today. People died within 24 hours, etc.

To connect the dots (the missing link of the internet story), a 2008 page from a psychic’s predictions was added to the story. This time the epidemic’s description and timeline correspond to 2020 coronavirus.

IOW, to lend credence to the social media story, one has to believe in a book whose story is about another epidemic set in a different place, then transplanted to Wuhan, on top of adding a psychic’s prediction. Pour in a few drops of toad drooling and let cook on a full moon night for best results.  >:D


https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-coronavirus-koontz-book/partly-false-claima-1981-book-predicted-the-coronavirus-2019-outbreak-idUSKCN20M19I (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-coronavirus-koontz-book/partly-false-claima-1981-book-predicted-the-coronavirus-2019-outbreak-idUSKCN20M19I)

Edited for typo
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Brian on March 13, 2020, 11:17:41 AM
Epidemic outbreaks have long fascinated writers and Hollywood. Not to mention all the stories about Jews poisoning eells during the Great Plague, etc.
The author Lawrence Wright just wrote a novel about an influenza outbreak - the book is scheduled to come out next month! He has a fascinating NY Times column today about seeing some of his plot points come true, but seeing others get disproven. In his novel, the virus hits Mecca during Ramadan and 3 million people are quarantined in Saudi Arabia.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 13, 2020, 11:53:00 AM
To my understanding the cause of this outbreak was inadequate hygieny regulations regarding live animal markets in China. Different animals are kept above each other in cages so that the animals below other animals are exposed to the feaces and viruses are transmitted. If China doesn't fix this, the World can expect a new pandemic every 10 years or so...  :-X
That's my understanding too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 13, 2020, 11:55:56 AM
Epidemic outbreaks have long fascinated writers and Hollywood. Not to mention all the stories about Jews poisoning wells during the Great Plague, etc.

Koontz wrote his novel in 1981 and set the action (epidemic outbreak) in Gorki, Russia - the archenemy and bogeyman of the USA in the Reagan years. The novel was reedited in 1989 and the plot moved to Wuhan, China (Russia was fast going down and no longer as scary a global threat in the Gorbachev years). Why Wuhan? Divination? ESP? Fluke? In any case, the epidemic described by Koontz didn’t look like what we have on our hands today. People died within 24 hours, etc.

To connect the dots (the missing link of the internet story), a 2008 page from a psychic’s predictions was added to the story. This time the epidemic’s description and timeline correspond to 2020 coronavirus.

IOW, to lend credence to the social media story, one has to believe in a book whose story is about another epidemic set in a different place, then transplanted to Wuhan, on top of adding a psychic’s prediction. Pour in a few drops of toad drooling and let cook on a full moon night for best results.  >:D


https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-coronavirus-koontz-book/partly-false-claima-1981-book-predicted-the-coronavirus-2019-outbreak-idUSKCN20M19I (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-coronavirus-koontz-book/partly-false-claima-1981-book-predicted-the-coronavirus-2019-outbreak-idUSKCN20M19I)

Edited for typo
Good points André.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Holden on March 13, 2020, 02:28:54 PM
The effect here in Australia is minimal with three reported deaths (all over 80 years old) and sporadic cases being detected around the country. However, big events like the F1 Grand Prix have been cancelled and sports matches are being played in front of empty stadiums. The State premiers met with the PM and the country's Chief Medical Officer yesterday and while a ban has been put in place on gatherings of more than 500 (where did they get that figure from?) people, Scott Morrison has urged people to go on with their lives as normal and I agree with him.

That said, the Covid 19 'pandemic' has made me think of a number of questions that nobody has asked so far.

The first is one that might horrify many of you. Coronavirus, unless it’s severe, is self reporting. If you‘ve got it and the symptoms are minor (like a mild cold or just feeling a bit down) how many of you would actually go to get it checked out? I would say less than 10% because "why bother the doctor with something that’s probably not Covid19 but just a bit of a cold". (Some of you don't have anywhere to go anyway). If this surmise is correct then there are probably a hell of a lot of people walking around with this virus who don't know it. Had a bit of a scratchy throat lately? Feeling physically a bit down but able to carry on? Is it coronavirus? It might be, who knows?

The second one sums up human nature. Your workmate has been diagnosed with it and you’ve been asked to self-isolate for 14 days. OK, you have a partner and three children. Do they self isolate as well? I suspect not.

What is the actual risk of death from Covid 19 and what are the implications? The graph below shows that the most vulnerable are those in 70+ age group who have an overall 24% chance (1 in 4) of dying if (and IF is the operative word) they contract the virus.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

There are other graphs involving comorbidity etc from this site. But the way I read those graphs is that it just looks like another flu season and not as serious as ones we’ve had in the past. The big difference this time around is that young children (comorbidity aside) have not been affected.

So are we shutting down the world just because we have come across something new? The death toll from the 'influenza season' in Australia last year was about the average - around 1300 people. Covid 19 has been here for two months now and we stand at 3. Or, is there something about this virus that our governments are not telling us?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 13, 2020, 02:53:00 PM
[…]
So are we shutting down the world just because we have come across something new? The death toll from the 'influenza season' in Australia last year was about the average - around 1300 people. Covid 19 has been here for two months now and we stand at 3. Or, is there something about this virus that our governments are not telling us?

Trump tweeded something like the 'relax, people' message last Monday, too. Two weeks ago he predicted "this will be over in April."
And here (Netherlands), there were medical specialists also claiming that COVID-19 was nothing but a heavy flu, especially dangerous for the old and the weak (which is bad enough already, do not get me wrong).
And then, around Wednesday/Thursday, suddenly the tone completely changed, almost everywhere. I did mention to a colleague that I found that rather weird. I mean, Boris Johnson's words almost sounded like a funeral speech, Macron's speech was very serious, and our (Dutch) PM, who was also relatively relaxed until Wednesday, has stopped laughing altogether. Which is very noticeable, cuz he laughs a lot, normally. Of course the situation in Italy went from alarming to extremely alarming indeed during the week, so that could be the cause.

I really feel for the people who work in healthcare. They try to help as much as they can and take the highest risks. I read some reports here that many of them are very tired already. And this thing has only just started...
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 13, 2020, 03:17:13 PM
The self imposed isolation is meant to disrupt the transmission of the virus. Like going from an unbroken line to some kind of morse code. It will slow the number of cases on a day to day basis (flattening the bell curve) so the health system is not overwhelmed by a sudden peak.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 13, 2020, 04:50:48 PM
The effect here in Australia is minimal with three reported deaths (all over 80 years old) and sporadic cases being detected around the country. However, big events like the F1 Grand Prix have been cancelled and sports matches are being played in front of empty stadiums. The State premiers met with the PM and the country's Chief Medical Officer yesterday and while a ban has been put in place on gatherings of more than 500 (where did they get that figure from?) people, Scott Morrison has urged people to go on with their lives as normal and I agree with him.

That said, the Covid 19 'pandemic' has made me think of a number of questions that nobody has asked so far.

The first is one that might horrify many of you. Coronavirus, unless it’s severe, is self reporting. If you‘ve got it and the symptoms are minor (like a mild cold or just feeling a bit down) how many of you would actually go to get it checked out? I would say less than 10% because "why bother the doctor with something that’s probably not Covid19 but just a bit of a cold". (Some of you don't have anywhere to go anyway). If this surmise is correct then there are probably a hell of a lot of people walking around with this virus who don't know it. Had a bit of a scratchy throat lately? Feeling physically a bit down but able to carry on? Is it coronavirus? It might be, who knows?

The second one sums up human nature. Your workmate has been diagnosed with it and you’ve been asked to self-isolate for 14 days. OK, you have a partner and three children. Do they self isolate as well? I suspect not.

What is the actual risk of death from Covid 19 and what are the implications? The graph below shows that the most vulnerable are those in 70+ age group who have an overall 24% chance (1 in 4) of dying if (and IF is the operative word) they contract the virus.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

There are other graphs involving comorbidity etc from this site. But the way I read those graphs is that it just looks like another flu season and not as serious as ones we’ve had in the past. The big difference this time around is that young children (comorbidity aside) have not been affected.

So are we shutting down the world just because we have come across something new? The death toll from the 'influenza season' in Australia last year was about the average - around 1300 people. Covid 19 has been here for two months now and we stand at 3. Or, is there something about this virus that our governments are not telling us?

The basic problem with Covid19 is that, being a newly discovered virus, nobody seems to have natural immunity to it, and there is no vaccine for it now.  So it can spread much more easily than the normal flu virus. You just have to hope you get a milder strain of it if you get it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: 71 dB on March 13, 2020, 05:14:00 PM
A warning in a language similar to English
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYxLSpUZEuU

Prime example of how a very serious matter becomes unintentionally comical... :P
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mirror Image on March 13, 2020, 08:42:26 PM
I think like a lot of these outbreaks, the most important thing is to take personal precautions. In this case, wash your hands regularly (I hope people here and elsewhere do this anyway), practice good hygiene, and always know your surroundings and, more importantly, the people in those surroundings. I think there has been one case reported where I live, but by the way the media makes it sound, you’d think this was the apocalypse. I work in retail and I’ve never seen so many people scrambling to buy toilet paper, hand sanitizers, antibacterial wipes, water, bread, etc. Personally, I’m not going to live my life in fear and I think one of the worst things people can do in this kind of situation is to panic. This only escalates the problem. The perfect scenario would be for people just to stay at home, but this isn’t going to happen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 13, 2020, 09:06:47 PM

The second one sums up human nature. Your workmate has been diagnosed with it and you’ve been asked to self-isolate for 14 days. OK, you have a partner and three children. Do they self isolate as well? I suspect not.


At some point very soon the UK the government is going to ask well people in vulnerable groups to « cocoon » themselves - which, as far as I can see, is a sort of voluntary house arrest. They may be asked to do this for many weeks.  It will involve a significant lifestyle change and I’m sure it will be very unpleasant for them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 13, 2020, 09:10:13 PM

What is the actual risk of death from Covid 19 and what are the implications?


The risk of death is increased if you don’t  the proper care if you develop pneumonia. And that’s the problem. There may well be so many people presenting with serious complications of the virus that the health system can’t offer them all the right level of care.

That’s why, I’m the UK, part of the strategy involves ensuring that vulnerable groups do not catch the disease.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 14, 2020, 06:12:51 AM

The Great TP Run...

(https://i.imgflip.com/3shleu.jpg)

(https://i.imgflip.com/3sdpty.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 06:33:40 AM
a ban has been put in place on gatherings of more than 500 (where did they get that figure from?)

In my own country it's more than 100, which begs the question what's the difference between 99 and 101?  ;D

Quote
Had a bit of a scratchy throat lately? Feeling physically a bit down but able to carry on?

Precisely and exactly my symptoms during end of Januay/beginning of February. I've had 38/39 C fever for four days in a row; for a whole night I've felt as if I had a razor blade glued to my hroat; I could barely eat anything and I was extremely weak physically for a whole week; I was not even sure if I could drive to the apointment with my oto-rhino-laryngologist (eventually I did, better than expected). I needed a full week of antibiotics in order to get cured and a whole month afterwards to get rid of coughing. This was the worst flu I've ever experienced. Was it Covid-19? Highly unlikely.

I'm not saying the pandemic should be taken lightly, but I'm absolutely convinced that mass panic and hysteria are worse than the virus itself.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mirror Image on March 14, 2020, 06:51:57 AM
The Great TP Run...

(https://i.imgflip.com/3shleu.jpg)

(https://i.imgflip.com/3sdpty.jpg)

;D Haha! So true!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 07:34:35 AM
Why is it that the mass media focus almost exclusively on the negatives and they almost never stress the positives?

"The mortality rate is 10 times higher than that of the seasonal flu". True, but given that the latter is 0.1% it follows that the former is 1%, which means that he overwhelming majority of people who got Covid-19 will survive alright.

Related: a flu --- any flu, be it seasonal or Covid-19 --- kills only people with previous and serious medical conditions. A person who has no, or minor medical conditions, will most likely survive the infection.

"There is no known antidote to Covid-19". Which begs the question how did all the people who are now cured of it survived? Either they did nothing at all (in which case their natural immunity was strong enough to annihilate the virus) or they were treated with whatever medication is known as being effective against other types of coronaviruses (in which case we must assume that it work against Covid-19 as well)

Just earlier today on Euronews I've heard a Hong Kong virusologist stating that this damn Covid-19 is a virus sharing many, if not most, of his features with many other coronaviruses which have been studied, so the most probable reason for its appearance is natural evolution rather than leak from a laboratory. While not completely excluding the latter hypothesis, I tend to agree with him. So far, so good. Shortly thereafter I've heard on a Romanian TV station that the European Center for Disease Prevention stated that the Covid-19's survival time on solid surfaces is still unknown. Good grief! (1) If Covid-19 shares many features with many other coronaviruses which have been studied, then for my engineer mind it follows logically that its survival time on solid surfaces must be about the same time as that of the others, give or take; (2) in AD 2020 is it that hard to establish how long a virus which people can be tested against survives on solid surfaces?

The same virusologist mentioned above stated that it's wrong to be optimistic about the Covid-19 pandemic subsiding by April due to warming, because in the Southern hemsphere it's going to be colder (coming winter) and the cycle will go on. While this is true in abstract, considering that right now the vast, overwhelming majority of the infections are reported in the Northern hemisphere, the coming summer will most likely subside the Northern hemisphere pandemic. To my engineer mind it's highly unlikely that beyond April or May the Southern hemisphere will experience the same level of emergency as the Northern hemisphere right now.

Last but not least, let's put the whole thing in a philosophical, metaphysical or religious perspective. 100% of those who get Covid-19 will die: a (very) few of them because it will aggravate their preexisting medical conditions, the vast majority of them because sooner or later, for one reason or another different from Covid-19, all people die. 100% of those who will not get Covid-19 will die, because sooner or later, for one reason or another different from Covid-19, all people die.

Carpe diem!

I wish all GMGers and all their loved ones and acquaintances stay safe and healthy!



Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 07:35:32 AM
The effect here in Australia is minimal with three reported deaths (all over 80 years old) and sporadic cases being detected around the country. However, big events like the F1 Grand Prix have been cancelled and sports matches are being played in front of empty stadiums. The State premiers met with the PM and the country's Chief Medical Officer yesterday and while a ban has been put in place on gatherings of more than 500 (where did they get that figure from?) people, Scott Morrison has urged people to go on with their lives as normal and I agree with him.

That said, the Covid 19 'pandemic' has made me think of a number of questions that nobody has asked so far.

The first is one that might horrify many of you. Coronavirus, unless it’s severe, is self reporting. If you‘ve got it and the symptoms are minor (like a mild cold or just feeling a bit down) how many of you would actually go to get it checked out? I would say less than 10% because "why bother the doctor with something that’s probably not Covid19 but just a bit of a cold". (Some of you don't have anywhere to go anyway). If this surmise is correct then there are probably a hell of a lot of people walking around with this virus who don't know it. Had a bit of a scratchy throat lately? Feeling physically a bit down but able to carry on? Is it coronavirus? It might be, who knows?

The second one sums up human nature. Your workmate has been diagnosed with it and you’ve been asked to self-isolate for 14 days. OK, you have a partner and three children. Do they self isolate as well? I suspect not.

What is the actual risk of death from Covid 19 and what are the implications? The graph below shows that the most vulnerable are those in 70+ age group who have an overall 24% chance (1 in 4) of dying if (and IF is the operative word) they contract the virus.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

There are other graphs involving comorbidity etc from this site. But the way I read those graphs is that it just looks like another flu season and not as serious as ones we’ve had in the past. The big difference this time around is that young children (comorbidity aside) have not been affected.

So are we shutting down the world just because we have come across something new? The death toll from the 'influenza season' in Australia last year was about the average - around 1300 people. Covid 19 has been here for two months now and we stand at 3. Or, is there something about this virus that our governments are not telling us?

Thread winner so far!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 14, 2020, 08:04:52 AM
I think like a lot of these outbreaks, the most important thing is to take personal precautions. In this case, wash your hands regularly (I hope people here and elsewhere do this anyway), practice good hygiene, and always know your surroundings and, more importantly, the people in those surroundings. I think there has been one case reported where I live, but by the way the media makes it sound, you’d think this was the apocalypse. I work in retail and I’ve never seen so many people scrambling to buy toilet paper, hand sanitizers, antibacterial wipes, water, bread, etc. Personally, I’m not going to live my life in fear and I think one of the worst things people can do in this kind of situation is to panic. This only escalates the problem. The perfect scenario would be for people just to stay at home, but this isn’t going to happen.

The vexatious thing about the upshot of the Panic Buying for me is, that as someone relatively housebound while on disability, shopping becomes a little problematic in a way that I consider fsairly unnecessary.  My needs WRT toilet paper and water are not great, but they are greater than zero.

I did manage to find TP at CVS yesterday, and sufficient water at Whole Foods today, so I suffer no unease.  /Bu,r since there was none of either at Stop 'n' Shop yesterday,  I have been fortunate in my foraging choices.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 14, 2020, 08:32:05 AM
Shortly thereafter I've heard on a Romanian TV station that the European Center for Disease Prevention stated that the Covid-19's survival time on solid surfaces is still unknown.

Virus can remain viable "in aerosols up to 3 hours, up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel" a Princeton study awaiting peer review has found https://t.co/8AEaFd230k
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 08:36:21 AM
Virus can remain viable "in aerosols up to 3 hours, up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel" a Princeton study awaiting peer review has found https://t.co/8AEaFd230k

Thanks, really helpful. Does the study also mention how these data compare to other coronaviruses? I ask because it's really important to put things in perspective (see the "10 times more deadly than the seasonal flu" thing).
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 14, 2020, 09:17:11 AM
Thanks, really helpful. Does the study also mention how these data compare to other coronaviruses? I ask because it's really important to put things in perspective (see the "10 times more deadly than the seasonal flu" thing).

The study compares SARS Co-V 1 (the old SARS virus from the epidemic 2002 - 2003) with SARS Co-V-2 (the new SARS virus which causes COVID 19), but there is no comparison with the corona-vira which cause common cold.

The article is just to go to here:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v1.full.pdf
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: GioCar on March 14, 2020, 09:27:32 AM
This virus is a scoundrel.

It starts slowly, almost unnoticeable.

In Italy we had 3 cases from the end of January, and so they were for almost one months. Big news on the newspapers, all places where they stayed were sanitized, those people were immediately quarantined, but really nobody cared of them. We all thought that what was happening in China couldn't happen to us, to our lives.
Then, from February 21, things started getting bad. Suddenly. Nobody knows really why.
Now they say that, possibly, this virus was already here since a couple of months, but unless you look for it, you never find it. In hospitals they only noticed an unusual larger number of very old people, suffering from other deseases, dying from pneumonia, but you know, in winter that could happen.
So in February 21 they found 17 new cases, the day after the cases were 79, the day after 152, then 229, then 322 and so on...
Full history here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy

We immediately quarantined an large area at just 70km from my home. That week most of the people (including myself) used to say what some of you are stll saying: it's just a bit more severe flu, why shut down an entire piece of country, this only creates panic, just relax and follow your normal life.
How wrong we were!

Now we are all quarantined, we have nearly 20 thousands cases (still growing at a 20% daily rate) and more that one thousands deaths. Yes, most (but not all) of them are from old people. You know why? We have almost run out of the intensive care units in hospitals, so the young gets the ventilation, the old with other deseases gets the standard therapy only. Now we all understand very well why in Wuhan they built new hospitals in few days. But we are not in China...

Please, don't be superficial, don't make the same mistakes we made. This virus is a scoundrel. The sooner you shut down everything, the better is for you and your country.




   
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: ritter on March 14, 2020, 09:46:27 AM
Caro Gio, it’s good to hear from you, and I hope that you and those dear to you are well. I fully identify with your message, as we in Spain (and particularly in Madrid) are seeing what you describe now unfolding right before our eyes. We are being asked by the authorities to stay in our homes, and only go out to buy food or other essentials. Fortunately, it seems that the vast majority of the population is heeding this advice (belatedly, perhaps, as until only two nights ago people were still going to bars, restaurants and outdoor terraces to have a drink as if nothing were happening). Now the city is deserted (all shops—except food, chemists and some other exceptions—, restaurants, bars, gyms, theatre, museums, everything in fact, are closed for at least two weeks). Fortunately, there is no shortage of foodstuffs in the shops, and the general atmosphere is one of quiet, disciplined resignation. Those who can (like me) work from home, and avoid going out unless absolutely necessary. More stringent measures (complete lockdown?) are expected to be announced later today by the government. To a great extent, we have learned from what has happened in Italy (even if it has taken us probably one week too long to learn the lesson).

Ti auguro molto incoraggiamento, e ti mando un grande abbraccio.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 14, 2020, 09:57:34 AM
Why is it that the mass media focus almost exclusively on the negatives and they almost never stress the positives?

"The mortality rate is 10 times higher than that of the seasonal flu". True, but given that the latter is 0.1% it follows that the former is 1%, which means that he overwhelming majority of people who got Covid-19 will survive alright.

Related: a flu --- any flu, be it seasonal or Covid-19 --- kills only people with previous and serious medical conditions. A person who has no, or minor medical conditions, will most likely survive the infection.

"There is no known antidote to Covid-19". Which begs the question how did all the people who are now cured of it survived? Either they did nothing at all (in which case their natural immunity was strong enough to annihilate the virus) or they were treated with whatever medication is known as being effective against other types of coronaviruses (in which case we must assume that it work against Covid-19 as well)

Just earlier today on Euronews I've heard a Hong Kong virusologist stating that this damn Covid-19 is a virus sharing many, if not most, of his features with many other coronaviruses which have been studied, so the most probable reason for its appearance is natural evolution rather than leak from a laboratory. While not completely excluding the latter hypothesis, I tend to agree with him. So far, so good. Shortly thereafter I've heard on a Romanian TV station that the European Center for Disease Prevention stated that the Covid-19's survival time on solid surfaces is still unknown. Good grief! (1) If Covid-19 shares many features with many other coronaviruses which have been studied, then for my engineer mind it follows logically that its survival time on solid surfaces must be about the same time as that of the others, give or take; (2) in AD 2020 is it that hard to establish how long a virus which people can be tested against survives on solid surfaces?

The same virusologist mentioned above stated that it's wrong to be optimistic about the Covid-19 pandemic subsiding by April due to warming, because in the Southern hemsphere it's going to be colder (coming winter) and the cycle will go on. While this is true in abstract, considering that right now the vast, overwhelming majority of the infections are reported in the Northern hemisphere, the coming summer will most likely subside the Northern hemisphere pandemic. To my engineer mind it's highly unlikely that beyond April or May the Southern hemisphere will experience the same level of emergency as the Northern hemisphere right now.

Last but not least, let's put the whole thing in a philosophical, metaphysical or religious perspective. 100% of those who get Covid-19 will die: a (very) few of them because it will aggravate their preexisting medical conditions, the vast majority of them because sooner or later, for one reason or another different from Covid-19, all people die. 100% of those who will not get Covid-19 will die, because sooner or later, for one reason or another different from Covid-19, all people die.

Carpe diem!

I wish all GMGers and all their loved ones and acquaintances stay safe and healthy!

the problem is that there will be a lot of people with serious complications. This is a problem because the health systems of the world can't take care of them all, and so some of them, many of them, will die.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 14, 2020, 10:19:55 AM
In Belgium, bars and cafés closed to business for 3 weeks as of yesterday night. But not before a last pint !

Belgians understand carpe diem in their own way. Yesterday evening in Brussels, police had to remove revellers from bars well past midnight...

(https://moustique.cdnartwhere.eu/sites/default/files/vdd_lockdown-6.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 10:32:21 AM
the problem is that there will be a lot of people with serious complications.

Which means there were already a lot of people with serious medical conditions before Covid-19 ever start spreading.

Quote
This is a problem because the health systems of the world can't take care of them all, and so some of them, many of them, will die.

The real problem is that the modern man lives in a comfort that a king of yore could have only dreamed of and therefore they think they're immortal, or at least that death is an uncommon ocurrence. But you're very fond of JS Bach, though, so you should be immune to this delusion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 11:28:03 AM
In Belgium, bars and cafés closed to business for 3 weeks as of yesterday night. But not before a last pint !

Belgians understand carpe diem in their own way. Yesterday evening in Brussels, police had to remove revellers from bars well past midnight...

(https://moustique.cdnartwhere.eu/sites/default/files/vdd_lockdown-6.jpg)

Wise guys and chicks, those Belgians! If we're going to die, and we're all going to die, then at least let's die happy and cheerful.  :D

Seriously now, I'm all for obeying strictly the rules and regulations the authorities impose, they are for our own good. But I'm also all against inducing panic and hysteria,

I'm willing to take a bet: past April (May at most) the whole damn thing will be over in Europe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 14, 2020, 11:28:51 AM
The New Normal in Boston: Everything is Canceled (https://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/2020/03/13/boston-canceled-coronavirus/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 14, 2020, 11:41:43 AM
I'm beginning to see little signs of civilizational slippage, i.e. things that indicate people are dealing with an unprecedented crisis. My local library just closed for the duration, and today they sent me an overdue notice, indicating that the items I checked out are overdue. The due date is listed as 1962. This has never happened to me before.

I wondered how large a fine I would have to pay, but their website contained this notice:

"You may have received a message saying that your items are overdue...by about 58 years. Obviously, this is not correct (unless you have invented time travel, in which case: we have some questions). We think that the issue occurred when we were resetting due dates. We've put in a ticket with our tech company."
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Rinaldo on March 14, 2020, 11:44:49 AM
it's really important to put things in perspective

Yes. (https://twitter.com/NaomiOhReally/status/1238868163208634371)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Ratliff on March 14, 2020, 11:46:52 AM
the problem is that there will be a lot of people with serious complications. This is a problem because the health systems of the world can't take care of them all, and so some of them, many of them, will die.

One basic epidemiological estimate I’ve seen said that in the US 200 million could be infected and 1.5 million could be expected to die. To put that in perspective, there are 2.8 million deaths per year in the US. And while it is true that the elderly or people with pre-existing medical conditions are most vulnerable, people in good health can also die. It would be on par with the 1918 pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Irons on March 14, 2020, 11:47:18 AM
Governments across the world are advised by experts and are taking drastic measures, so yes I am taking this very seriously indeed. It is predicted that in the UK 80% of the population will be infected, the symptoms for some will be so mild that they will not even realise they have it, however, 1% are predicted to die, and of course for those aged over 65 the % of deaths shoots up. The affect on stock markets and businesses, large and small, worldwide is catastrophic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 14, 2020, 11:50:35 AM
     I went to the movies today. The ticket seller said there are no plans to close in the immediate future.

     I'm not sure what constitutes panic in public behavior. We are all supposed to not do it, but I'm a little unsure of what I'm not supposed to be doing.

     As for panic as emotion, that's my business. It's my pandemic, I'll cry if I want to......You would cry too if it blah blah etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 11:50:46 AM
Yes. (https://twitter.com/NaomiOhReally/status/1238868163208634371)

Twitter is not my thing. Can you summarize it, please?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 14, 2020, 11:52:27 AM
I'm beginning to see little signs of civilizational slippage, i.e. things that indicate people are dealing with an unprecedented crisis. My local library just closed for the duration, and today they sent me an overdue notice, indicating that the items I checked out are overdue. The due date is listed as 1962. This has never happened to me before.

I wondered how large a fine I would have to pay, but their website contained this notice:

"You may have received a message saying that your items are overdue...by about 58 years. Obviously, this is not correct (unless you have invented time travel, in which case: we have some questions). We think that the issue occurred when we were resetting due dates. We've put in a ticket with our tech company."

Hah! Book to the Future!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: GioCar on March 14, 2020, 11:56:14 AM
Caro Gio, it’s good to hear from you, and I hope that you and those dear to you are well. I fully identify with your message, as we in Spain (and particularly in Madrid) are seeing what you describe now unfolding right before our eyes. We are being asked by the authorities to stay in our homes, and only go out to buy food or other essentials. Fortunately, it seems that the vast majority of the population is heeding this advice (belatedly, perhaps, as until only two nights ago people were still going to bars, restaurants and outdoor terraces to have a drink as if nothing were happening). Now the city is deserted (all shops—except food, chemists and some other exceptions—, restaurants, bars, gyms, theatre, museums, everything in fact, are closed for at least two weeks). Fortunately, there is no shortage of foodstuffs in the shops, and the general atmosphere is one of quiet, disciplined resignation. Those who can (like me) work from home, and avoid going out unless absolutely necessary. More stringent measures (complete lockdown?) are expected to be announced later today by the government. To a great extent, we have learned from what has happened in Italy (even if it has taken us probably one week too long to learn the lesson).

Ti auguro molto incoraggiamento, e ti mando un grande abbraccio.

Caro Rafael, I've been following with concern what is happening in Europe and in the rest of the world. You in Madrid/Spain have been doing very well in my (new) opinion (as I said before I wasn't worried that much till when I saw the numbers growing exponentially, and when I started witnessing what is happening in hospitals here - my brother is a medical doctor).

Unfortunately some politicians in Europe (the continent) have been starting playing with their country's health system and with human lives. So terribly stupid.

Take care of yourself and your family. We will be over all that soon. In Italy people are preparing a sort of flag with a rainbow and the motto "Tutto andrà bene".

Un grande abbraccio anche a te!

Now I go celebrating my wedding anniversary (22 years) with a romantic dinner al home with my wife. We'll have "orata alla ligure" (see bream ligurian style) with olives, pine seeds, thyme, olive oil, garlic and potatoes  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 11:58:39 AM
Governments across the world are advised by experts and are taking drastic measures, so yes I am taking this very seriously indeed. It is predicted that in the UK 80% of the population will be infected,

I think the figure is greatly exaggerated.

Quote
the symptoms for some will be so mild that they will not even realise they have it,

That's valid for every seasonal flu in every country in every hemisphere.

Quote
1% are predicted to die,

Oh, the horror, the horror!

Quote
of course for those aged over 65 the % of deaths shoots up.

That is certainly true --- because, and only because, they're most likely to have pre-existing life-threatening conditions.

Quote
The affect on stock markets and businesses, large and small, worldwide is catastrophic.

It could most certainly be catastrophic if mass media and governments alike will keep spreading and inducing mass panic and hysteria.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 12:00:46 PM
Now I go celebrating my wedding anniversary (22 years) with a romantic dinner al home with my wife. We'll have "orata alla ligure" (see bream ligurian style) with olives, pine seeds, thyme, olive oil, garlic and potatoes  :)

Many happy returns! What wine will you have?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 14, 2020, 12:50:14 PM
Twitter is not my thing. Can you summarize it, please?

« Bergamo newspaper obituary from February 9: 1 page
Same newspaper’s obituary from March 13: 10 pages.
A simple flu. Thanks. »
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 14, 2020, 01:46:58 PM
Hah! Book to the Future!

Absolutely. Book a journey to the future.  :)
Maybe this corona virus is gone by then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 14, 2020, 01:55:24 PM
Wise guys and chicks, those Belgians! If we're going to die, and we're all going to die, then at least let's die happy and cheerful.  :D

Seriously now, I'm all for obeying strictly the rules and regulations the authorities impose, they are for our own good. But I'm also all against inducing panic and hysteria,

I'm willing to take a bet: past April (May at most) the whole damn thing will be over in Europe.
[…]

If I understand correctly, one of them cheerful Belgian partygoers kissed a female TV reporter while she was doing a live broadcast from the street.
The police is now searching for him, because the broadcast company wants to sue him for sexual harrassment and endangering their employee's health.

I'm not against some joking around a bit, but I think this virus is a serious matter, with the death tolls in China and Italy (for instance) as sad proofs. I saw an Italian doctor today on the telly, who was telling about old people dying in hospitals, completely left alone, because their family wasn't able/allowed to come over and because the medical staff was just too busy helping people who could still be saved.

I won't take your bet either, I'm not a medic and I just don't know when this will end. I do know though that I myself don't have a steady job (which ends on May 1st also) and that there are already companies beginning to fire temporary staff, or stop extending their contracts. I'm not sure about other countries, but normally 'just a heavy flu with a few deaths' doesn't lead to this. Today was a sunny day around here, but in my suburb the streets and parks were empty. No fun.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 14, 2020, 01:58:06 PM
Wonkette keeping you informed:

What Are Tinfoil Hatters Saying About Coronavirus? Oh, Just Normal Stuff. (https://www.wonkette.com/tin-foil-hat-coronavirus)

"Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, there have been conspiracy theories about the coronavirus. But this week, as the CDC declared it a pandemic and people are really taking it seriously, extremely stupid conspiracy theories about the coronavirus have started to spread like, well, the coronavirus.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, most of these conspiracy theories have started in and around the QAnon community, as it is filled with people who simply do not believe in coincidences. Or, really, in anything in the whole world happening that is not related to their idiot conspiracy theory.

Even schools closing in order to keep children safe presents an opportunity for them to wax poetic about what that could mean for those who kill children in order to harvest their adrenal glands to produce adrenochrome, a substance that can be manufactured in a lab by oxidizing epinephrine, in order to get high off of it. You cannot, in fact, get high off of adrenochrome.

"If 'these people are sick' means adrenochrome withdrawal, then keeping children at home will prevent the elite from feeding."

So let's just dive in, shall we?

Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson, whom we all love, have tested positive for COVID-19 in Australia where Hanks is currently filming a movie about Elvis Presley in which he plays Presley's manager, Colonel Tom Parker — they are in isolation and are so far doing OK. That's about it on that story on the normal news front.

Hanks, over the last few years, has been the subject of a super ridiculous conspiracy theory perpetuated by a lady named Sara Ruth Ashcraft who claims she was Tom Hanks's brainwashed sex slave and that he, her parents and a whole bunch of other celebrities belong to a cult called the Hivites. Hillary Clinton, obviously, is involved in this as well, because isn't she always? Anyway, it's partially because of this that his diagnosis has sent the tin foil hat brigade into overdrive.

Randy Quaid seems to think his diagnosis is a hoax perpetuated by none other than Michelle Obama. Why? Who knows!

This guy on Reddit's r/Conspiracy thinks Hanks used his Golden Globes acceptance speech to send messages to the elite about coronavirus, and to telegraph the day and time he and Rita Wilson would be announcing they got it.

Also, according to some stupid people on Twitter, Hanks's most recent tweet confirming he and Wilson are OK was actually a plea for adrenochrome, and Ellen DeGeneres answered their prayers? Or something?

Also Ellen DeGeneres's decision to film her show without a studio audience — coupled with an obvious joke about having a warrant out for her arrest in the state of Florida — sent the Anons into conspiracy overdrive.

Speaking of arrests, both Firefighter Prophet Mark Taylor and Liz "We Don't Want To Be Mean To Her Because She Actually Does Have Brain Damage" Crokin are claiming the coronavirus is merely a coverup for all of the mass arrests that Q has been promising them the last several years.

Via RightWingWatch:

"I do believe that when these mass arrests happen that we will be in martial law for our own safety," Crokin said. "I believe that the coronavirus, which the president of the United States and many doctors have said is no more serious than the flu, is the cover to put the country into lockdown—just like Italy is in lockdown—to possibly declare martial law, get people off the streets, keep them in their homes, so they're safe so when the military and the National Guard sweeps in and conducts these mass arrests, it is done in a manner where people are kept safe."

"Since 2017, Q has been talking about these mass arrests, and Q has also been talking about how when these mass arrests happen, there will probably be many days of darkness, social media might go down, the National Guard is going to come in, and the military will be used to arrest these people," she added. "That is what I believe is happening right now."
In a thread about this on the Voat QAnon board, they are very, very excited for these mass arrests, the public hangings they hope will go along with them, and the idea of getting to have "side bets on how long the eyes and mouth move after decapitation." They are all very normal US citizens!

But it's not all internet randos! Sean Hannity, this week, cited an "MIT guy" who said that the whole coronavirus thing is just a big fraud meant to "manipulate economies, suppress dissent, and push mandated medicines."

Hannity, via Media Matters:

Gateway Pundit points out that as of yesterday that the President's approval rating is fine and he's getting pretty good grades on everything else. There's an MIT guy I noticed on Twitter, and you know he's saying pretty much the same thing he does research nearly every single day on immune systems he said quote "coronavirus fear-mongering by the Deep State will go down in history as one of the biggest frauds to manipulate economies, suppress dissent, and push mandated medicines." May be true.
Except probably not!

It should not surprise you at all to know that the "MIT guy" Hannity noticed on Twitter is in fact Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai, a QAnon weirdo who thinks he invented email and is currently running for Elizabeth Warren's Senate seat.

Like the coronavirus, it is likely that these conspiracy theories are likely to get worse before they get better — but hopefully they remain quarantined in the stupider parts of the internet."
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 01:59:11 PM
old people dying in hospitals

Unheard of!  ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 14, 2020, 02:02:40 PM
Unheard of!  ;D

Yeah, "fuck the doomed", as Ayn Rand might say.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 02:04:15 PM
« Bergamo newspaper obituary from February 9: 1 page
Same newspaper’s obituary from March 13: 10 pages.
A simple flu. Thanks. »

10 pages, really? Please give the source.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 14, 2020, 02:05:05 PM
You got it but didn’t care to read.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 14, 2020, 02:06:15 PM
Virus can remain viable "in aerosols up to 3 hours, up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel" a Princeton study awaiting peer review has found https://t.co/8AEaFd230k
A couple of days ago, I watched one t.v. show (interviewing a doctor by another doctor--a heart surgeon) who said if I'm recalling correctly, that the virus could last up to 9 days (which was explained as being much longer than other viruses) then I heard a program on NPR which said it was a much shorter time (a couple of days I believe?)....urgh!   ::)

Am planning on hitting a couple of supermarkets early tomorrow with a friend...hoping that they'll been able to restock overnight.  This is cuckoo!

Best,

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 14, 2020, 02:07:32 PM
Unheard of!  ;D

I didn't want to take the bet, but, come to think of it, I do want to make that deal you offered earlier this week: let's stop reacting to each other's posts, unless it's about music.

I.c. the 'diner': I wish you a happy mocking continuation about other people's worries. Bon appétit and have a healthy digestion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 02:09:04 PM
Yeah, "fuck the doomed", as Ayn Rand might say.

Well, yes of course. If you had cancer, or pneumonia, or diabetes or any other life-threatening condition, the probability that you'll die from seasonal flue is not much less than that of dying from Covid-19. Nothing to do with Ayn Rand, everything to do with biology.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 14, 2020, 02:10:35 PM
10 pages, really? Please give the source.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/14/heartbreaking-video-shows-coronavirus-devastating-toll-on-italy/

But its just the flu. Once again you're an apologist for a Trump narrative (though strictly speaking his is "its nothing to worry about, but I saved you all from it")
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 02:12:21 PM
let's stop reacting to each other's posts, unless it's about music.

Had I realized at first sight it was you whom I was reolying to, I'd have refrained from posting alright.

Otherwise, agreed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 02:14:36 PM
you're an apologist for a Trump narrative

Your fixation on Trump is worisome (pun).
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 14, 2020, 02:20:02 PM
. If you had cancer, or pneumonia, or diabetes or any other life-threatening condition, the probability that you'll die from seasonal flue is not much less than that of dying from Covid-19.

This is an unsubstantiated claim on you part.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 14, 2020, 02:31:58 PM
...and no reason to casually dismiss their potential deaths when with the right reaction and attitudes to guarding against the virus they could live a further x years or decades to do who knows what.

But, meh, they're just the old and sick, so fuck 'em.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 14, 2020, 02:36:58 PM
I'm beginning to see little signs of civilizational slippage, i.e. things that indicate people are dealing with an unprecedented crisis. My local library just closed for the duration, and today they sent me an overdue notice, indicating that the items I checked out are overdue. The due date is listed as 1962. This has never happened to me before.

I wondered how large a fine I would have to pay, but their website contained this notice:

"You may have received a message saying that your items are overdue...by about 58 years. Obviously, this is not correct (unless you have invented time travel, in which case: we have some questions). We think that the issue occurred when we were resetting due dates. We've put in a ticket with our tech company."
Thank you so much for making me laugh!  I really needed that.   :)  My local library is closed for a while...who knows for exactly how long....lots of other public places including schools closed too.  I suspect that there will be a lot of "play it by ear" as far as the authorities goes.  I wish that we had a national policy to direct things.  Rather than a town-by-town or (better) emanating from the state level.  I'm, I think, lucky in that it seems that our town is being more on the proactive side.  It's still hard though as decisions are being made at different levels depending upon who has the authority to make them.

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 02:46:42 PM
This is an unsubstantiated claim on you part.

Is it really? Are you really going to tell me that the seasonal flue kills people who have no pre-existing, life-threatening condition?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 14, 2020, 02:48:31 PM
Governments across the world are advised by experts and are taking drastic measures, so yes I am taking this very seriously indeed. It is predicted that in the UK 80% of the population will be infected, the symptoms for some will be so mild that they will not even realise they have it, however, 1% are predicted to die, and of course for those aged over 65 the % of deaths shoots up. The affect on stock markets and businesses, large and small, worldwide is catastrophic.
I've been stunned by what I've seen happen to the markets; I don't know in detail what happened elsewhere, but when Pres. Trump was talking on Friday about the new measures to be taken, it was heartening to see the market react positively (up around 700 points).  Anyone who is either close to or is retired's blood pressure surely went up!

And yes, it's scary to see/hear about the risks to people who are middle age and older.  How do you protect everyone?  Also, how do you protect health care workers....people who are healthy are buying up the needed masks.  I spoke recently to one construction worker who was doing some demolition work inside a house and he told me of the problems trying to get masks to protect him from the dust/debris.

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 14, 2020, 02:49:44 PM
Hah! Book to the Future!
Very clever Karl!! ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 14, 2020, 02:50:58 PM
Thank you so much for making me laugh!  I really needed that.   :)  My local library is closed for a while...who knows for exactly how long....lots of other public places including schools closed too.  I suspect that there will be a lot of "play it by ear" as far as the authorities goes.  I wish that we had a national policy to direct things.  Rather than a town-by-town or (better) emanating from the state level.  I'm, I think, lucky in that it seems that our town is being more on the proactive side.  It's still hard though as decisions are being made at different levels depending upon who has the authority to make them.

PD

Proactivity, yeah. Saw a lovely short vid on the telly this evening, about volunteers who called the (known) elderly and the weaker people of their area on a daily basis, to ask if they wanted to have a little chat and/or if they could get them some groceries or medicin. Normally they were visited by acquaintances or by family, but since the higher risk that's not possible anymore, so they came up with this solution. One old man wanted to thank a volunteer who delivered some stuff (he wasn't allowed to bring it inside though) by shaking his hand. "No no, we can't do that!" the guy said.
 
(I did not see a volunteering librarian ringing up elderly people to say that they should return their 1726 copy of Gulliver's Travels though.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 02:56:53 PM
.they're just the old and sick

I'm sorry to state it but the old and sick are going to die much earlier than the young and healthy --- and I'm greatly puzzled that anyone can be morally opposed to a mere biological fact.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 14, 2020, 03:01:24 PM
I'm sorry to state it but the old and sick are going to die much earlier than the young and healthy --- and I'm greatly puzzled that anyone can be morally opposed to a mere biological fact.

And I'm saying that more will die than need to with an "its just the flu" reaction. Which you seem unconcerned about. That doesn't mean anyone needs to freak out or panic, but they should be trusting the advice of medical experts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 14, 2020, 03:14:41 PM
[…]
But, meh, they're just the old and sick, so fuck 'em.

Doctors have been dying too, btw. But hey, they could have known that it can be a dangerous job sometimes.
And they drink and smoketoomuch anyway.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQODVsl5pFY

https://www.youtube.com/v/vQODVsl5pFY
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 14, 2020, 03:21:53 PM
Coronavirus: Ten reasons why you ought not to panic (https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-ten-reasons-why-you-ought-not-to-panic-132941)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Holden on March 14, 2020, 03:27:38 PM
In another episode from "Dumb and Dumber" I see that the NZ Prime Minister has effectively closed the country's borders to everyone except Pacific Islanders.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120279430/coronavirus-prime-minister-updates-nz-on-covid19-outbreak

Sounds good, but it's not. For a start, the horse has already bolted so what's the point of closing the stable door? While NZ has recorded six confirmed cases of the virus you can safely assume that there are many more. This is 'knee jerk' of the highest order.

Also, why are Pasifika exempt? Are the immune to the disease? It's the only reason I can think of. The fact is that Fiji, Samoa, Rarotonga, etc, have all had many international visitors over the last couple of months leaving the strong possibility that some of their citizens are infected as well.

As I said in a previous post, at least our government here in OZ is encouraging us to carry on as normally as possible but the whole affair reminds me of "Chicken Licken"

So what can we do other than stockpile goods we will probably take years to consume? How about looking after those who are most likely to be affected by this - our senior citizens. Put a plan into place to minimise the risk for them. Put a plan in place to make sure that they get the best possible protection. This alone should help reduce eventual fatalities.

As an aside, I was in Aldi yesterday and noticed that frozen foods are the next thing that people are stockpiling. Now a freezer can only hold so much and I wonder if Harvey Norman's are witnessing panic buying in their white goods section. :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 14, 2020, 03:34:20 PM
[…]
So what can we do other than stockpile goods we will probably take years to consume? How about looking after those who are most likely to be affected by this - our senior citizens. Put a plan into place to minimise the risk for them. Put a plan in place to make sure that they get the best possible protection. This alone should help reduce eventual fatalities.

That's what's been happening in most countries, I think/hope.

Quote
As an aside, I was in Aldi yesterday and noticed that frozen foods are the next thing that people are stockpiling. Now a freezer can only hold so much and I wonder if Harvey Norman's are witnessing panic buying in their white goods section. :D

Yeah, when their freezers are stuffed with food they might slow down, the selfish bastards. And then indeed they will be stockpiling freezers without a doubt. Stockpiling can be addictive. Well, at least some parts of the economy are making money.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 14, 2020, 03:44:17 PM
In another episode from "Dumb and Dumber" I see that the NZ Prime Minister has effectively closed the country's borders to everyone except Pacific Islanders.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120279430/coronavirus-prime-minister-updates-nz-on-covid19-outbreak

Sounds good, but it's not. For a start, the horse has already bolted so what's the point of closing the stable door? While NZ has recorded six confirmed cases of the virus you can safely assume that there are many more. This is 'knee jerk' of the highest order.

Also, why are Pasifika exempt? Are the immune to the disease? It's the only reason I can think of. The fact is that Fiji, Samoa, Rarotonga, etc, have all had many international visitors over the last couple of months leaving the strong possibility that some of their citizens are infected as well.

As I said in a previous post, at least our government here in OZ is encouraging us to carry on as normally as possible but the whole affair reminds me of "Chicken Licken"

So what can we do other than stockpile goods we will probably take years to consume? How about looking after those who are most likely to be affected by this - our senior citizens. Put a plan into place to minimise the risk for them. Put a plan in place to make sure that they get the best possible protection. This alone should help reduce eventual fatalities.

As an aside, I was in Aldi yesterday and noticed that frozen foods are the next thing that people are stockpiling. Now a freezer can only hold so much and I wonder if Harvey Norman's are witnessing panic buying in their white goods section. :D

Did you even read the text of the article you linked to?

Because it answers all of the questions you just asked and contradicts your conclusions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 14, 2020, 04:04:49 PM
Did you even read the text of the article you linked to?

Because it answers all of the questions you just asked and contradicts your conclusions.

I tried to open the link and read the article, but my virus software closed it after 10 seconds and said that a virus attack was blocked. :laugh:

(No kidding though. Tried it 3 times.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 14, 2020, 04:22:26 PM

     I would not assume that the new virus will only kill people who would die otherwise from seasonal flu. I used to get bad cases of the flu and since I started getting yearly flu shots, which now means the extra strong version for older people, I don't get flu serious enough to develop into bronchitis.

     We're dealing with excess deaths. People protected by flu shots will die.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 14, 2020, 04:24:38 PM
I tried to open the link and read the article, but my virus software closed it after 10 seconds and said that a virus attack was blocked. :laugh:

(No kidding though. Tried it 3 times.)

There's probably better and more info elsewhere, but here's what that one says:

Coronavirus: Everyone coming to New Zealand must isolate for 14 days, Prime Minister Ardern says

"From midnight Sunday, everyone arriving in New Zealand will have to isolate themselves for 14 days, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has announced.

The tighter border controls were announced during an update by the prime minister on New Zealand's response to the Covid-19 outbreak on Saturday afternoon. She said while it is not realistic for New Zealand to only have a handful of coronavirus cases, the changes would slow the spread of infection.

"New Zealand has today, relative to other countries, a small number of cases," Ardern said.

"We must plan and prepare for more cases. We must go hard and we must go early. We must do everything we can to protect the health of New Zealanders."

The restrictions apply to New Zealand citizens and residents as well as international visitors.

People travelling from the Pacific Islands to New Zealand will be exempt, unless they show symptoms of coronavirus.

The new measures mean New Zealand will have the strongest border restrictions in the world, apart from Israel and some Pacific Islands, which have effectively closed their borders.

As of midnight Saturday, no cruise ships will be able to dock in New Zealand until June 30.

Strict new border exit rules to the Pacific Islands will also be put in place.

Anyone with coronavirus symptoms will not be allowed to travel there and those who have been to other overseas countries will have to wait 14 days before going to the Pacific Islands.

Close or casual contacts of confirmed cases of Covid-19 will also be barred from travelling to the Pacific Islands. All travellers' temperatures will be taken before they leave for the Pacific Islands.

Travel restrictions would be reviewed in 16 days, the prime minister said.

Ardern urged New Zealanders not to travel overseas unless it was absolutely necessary.

We have significant capacity for testing, Ardern said. "It is there and available." There are enough resources for 550 people to be tested per day.

Medical practitioners would use their clinical judgement when deciding who needed to be tested, the prime minister said.

Ardern reiterated public health messages to prevent the spread of infection. "Wash your hands," she repeated three times.

People should also stay home and avoid contact with older people if they're sick and stop greeting each other with a handshake or hongi.

Finance minister Grant Robertson will announce an economic response on Tuesday.

The Government will announce guidelines on large mass events next week too.

In the meantime, people planning on hosting such gatherings should contact their local public health authority, Ardern said.

Soon after the press conference Air New Zealand said it was reviewing the impact of the "new measures announced this afternoon on its operations and will adjust its capacity accordingly. We expect to provide an update on network changes over the next few days".

It comes after a sixth case of the novel coronavirus was confirmed in Auckland.

A man in his 60s who had recently returned from the United States tested positive for the illness on Friday night.

SO WHAT ARE THE NEW RULES FOR NZ?

* Every person entering New Zealand from anywhere in the world will be required to self-isolate for 14 days, excluding the Pacific. These restrictions will all be reviewed in 16 days' time.

* The existing travel ban for China and Iran will continue

* Cruise ships banned from coming to New Zealand, until at least June 30, 2020

* Strict new health measures at the border for people departing to the Pacific

* Measures to help those in self-isolation to be announced next week

* Government will work closely with the aviation sector to encourage airlines to remain active in New Zealand, limiting the impacts on the tourism sector and exporters

* There will be a directive on mass gatherings announced early next week

The prime minister's announcement followed a Cabinet meeting in Auckland on Saturday."
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 14, 2020, 04:26:09 PM
That's what's been happening in most countries, I think/hope.

Yeah, when their freezers are stuffed with food they might slow down, the selfish bastards. And then indeed they will be stockpiling freezers without a doubt. Stockpiling can be addictive. Well, at least some parts of the economy are making money.

At the height of the epidemic electricity maintenance crews will be affected, too (why shouldn’t they?). So next time there’s a power outing they won’t be able to repair it. All those frozen goods will go to waste...

Consequences (real, imagined and just wacky) are endless...
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 14, 2020, 04:33:45 PM
Coronavirus: Ten reasons why you ought not to panic (https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-ten-reasons-why-you-ought-not-to-panic-132941)
Thanks for posting this reassuring article Karl.
 :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 14, 2020, 04:35:08 PM
I've been stunned by what I've seen happen to the markets; I don't know in detail what happened elsewhere, but when Pres. Trump was talking on Friday about the new measures to be taken, it was heartening to see the market react positively (up around 700 points).  Anyone who is either close to or is retired's blood pressure surely went up!



     I've been retired for just over 5 years, and my reaction is that the market drop is not the big deal, it's the recession that's developing that has me a little concerned. I'm looking at 2 years to get back to the 2020 high, give or take. If it was a typical markety bad news panic it would right itself in weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 14, 2020, 04:47:05 PM
At the height of the epidemic electricity maintenance crews will be affected, too (why shouldn’t they?). So next time there’s a power outing they won’t be able to repair it. All those frozen goods will go to waste...

Consequences (real, imagined and just wacky) are endless...

:laugh:

That will teach them!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 14, 2020, 04:50:23 PM
There's probably better and more info elsewhere, but here's what that one says:

Coronavirus: Everyone coming to New Zealand must isolate for 14 days, Prime Minister Ardern says

"From midnight Sunday, everyone arriving in New Zealand will have to isolate themselves for 14 days, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has announced.

The tighter border controls were announced during an update by the prime minister on New Zealand's response to the Covid-19 outbreak on Saturday afternoon. She said while it is not realistic for New Zealand to only have a handful of coronavirus cases, the changes would slow the spread of infection.

"New Zealand has today, relative to other countries, a small number of cases," Ardern said.

"We must plan and prepare for more cases. We must go hard and we must go early. We must do everything we can to protect the health of New Zealanders."

The restrictions apply to New Zealand citizens and residents as well as international visitors.

People travelling from the Pacific Islands to New Zealand will be exempt, unless they show symptoms of coronavirus.

The new measures mean New Zealand will have the strongest border restrictions in the world, apart from Israel and some Pacific Islands, which have effectively closed their borders.

As of midnight Saturday, no cruise ships will be able to dock in New Zealand until June 30.

Strict new border exit rules to the Pacific Islands will also be put in place.

Anyone with coronavirus symptoms will not be allowed to travel there and those who have been to other overseas countries will have to wait 14 days before going to the Pacific Islands.

Close or casual contacts of confirmed cases of Covid-19 will also be barred from travelling to the Pacific Islands. All travellers' temperatures will be taken before they leave for the Pacific Islands.

Travel restrictions would be reviewed in 16 days, the prime minister said.

Ardern urged New Zealanders not to travel overseas unless it was absolutely necessary.

We have significant capacity for testing, Ardern said. "It is there and available." There are enough resources for 550 people to be tested per day.

Medical practitioners would use their clinical judgement when deciding who needed to be tested, the prime minister said.

Ardern reiterated public health messages to prevent the spread of infection. "Wash your hands," she repeated three times.

People should also stay home and avoid contact with older people if they're sick and stop greeting each other with a handshake or hongi.

Finance minister Grant Robertson will announce an economic response on Tuesday.

The Government will announce guidelines on large mass events next week too.

In the meantime, people planning on hosting such gatherings should contact their local public health authority, Ardern said.

Soon after the press conference Air New Zealand said it was reviewing the impact of the "new measures announced this afternoon on its operations and will adjust its capacity accordingly. We expect to provide an update on network changes over the next few days".

It comes after a sixth case of the novel coronavirus was confirmed in Auckland.

A man in his 60s who had recently returned from the United States tested positive for the illness on Friday night.

SO WHAT ARE THE NEW RULES FOR NZ?

* Every person entering New Zealand from anywhere in the world will be required to self-isolate for 14 days, excluding the Pacific. These restrictions will all be reviewed in 16 days' time.

* The existing travel ban for China and Iran will continue

* Cruise ships banned from coming to New Zealand, until at least June 30, 2020

* Strict new health measures at the border for people departing to the Pacific

* Measures to help those in self-isolation to be announced next week

* Government will work closely with the aviation sector to encourage airlines to remain active in New Zealand, limiting the impacts on the tourism sector and exporters

* There will be a directive on mass gatherings announced early next week

The prime minister's announcement followed a Cabinet meeting in Auckland on Saturday."

Thanks.
I just read the Dutch (more or less) equivalent message of the news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mirror Image on March 14, 2020, 07:05:00 PM
I think people need to just stop panicking. One thing is for certain about this coronavirus scare --- there are many people (and companies) profiting off this pandemic and it certainly isn’t us. I saw a large bottle of Purell hand sanitizer go for $200 on eBay. Absolute vultures.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 14, 2020, 08:25:03 PM
I think people need to just stop panicking. One thing is for certain about this coronavirus scare --- there are many people (and companies) profiting off this pandemic and it certainly isn’t us. I saw a large bottle of Purell hand sanitizer go for $200 on eBay. Absolute vultures.
+1
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: GioCar on March 14, 2020, 11:05:11 PM
Many happy returns! What wine will you have?

Thank you! We had a Franciacorta (Bellavista) for the initial toast, and a Vermentino di Gallura (Canayli) for the rest of the dinner. Just perfect for the sea bream.

Good luck and best wishes to you all in Romania. I see you have about one hundred cases and no deaths. I do really hope it remains the same, but in case you will change your mind. Trust me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 15, 2020, 01:06:46 AM
One of my daughter's flat mates works as a waitress in a restaurant in London. The clientele is mainly elderly. She said that they'd never sold so much alcohol before and that the atmosphere there reminded her of the first class lounge of the Titanic as it was going down!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 15, 2020, 02:26:53 AM
Is it really? Are you really going to tell me that the seasonal flue kills people who have no pre-existing, life-threatening condition?

You can read a bit about Primary Influenza Pneumonia here:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2811908/

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 15, 2020, 02:59:40 AM
Thank you! We had a Franciacorta (Bellavista) for the initial toast, and a Vermentino di Gallura (Canayli) for the rest of the dinner. Just perfect for the sea bream.

Great!

Quote
Good luck and best wishes to you all in Romania. I see you have about one hundred cases and no deaths. I do really hope it remains the same, but in case you will change your mind. Trust me.

Thanks, the same to all of you in Italy. 123 as I'm typing.

I repeat: the situation should be taken seriously and all regulations and restrictions must be obeyed unconditionally. What I'm opposed to is mass panic and hysteria.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Irons on March 15, 2020, 04:46:57 AM
I think the figure is greatly exaggerated.

That's valid for every seasonal flu in every country in every hemisphere.

Oh, the horror, the horror!

That is certainly true --- because, and only because, they're most likely to have pre-existing life-threatening conditions.

It could most certainly be catastrophic if mass media and governments alike will keep spreading and inducing mass panic and hysteria.

As long as you are not one among them.Then why give a toss. ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 15, 2020, 04:52:47 AM
As long as you are not one among them.Then why give a toss. ;D

My point is that a 1% mortality rate is no reason for panic.

In Romania there are 131 confirmed cases and no deaths until now. In the context this is good news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 15, 2020, 05:06:29 AM
My point is that a 1% mortality rate is no reason for panic.


That would depend on the infection rate, surely.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Rinaldo on March 15, 2020, 05:15:20 AM
I repeat: the situation should be taken seriously and all regulations and restrictions must be obeyed unconditionally. What I'm opposed to is mass panic and hysteria.

You'd be hard-pressed to find someone who's pro-mass panic and hysteria. As you said, it's all about taking the situation seriously and thankfully, that's what I'm seeing all around my country and most of Europe. The UK and the States, on the other hand..

As for Czech Republic, people are stockpiling on food as we're heading for a nationwide quarantine right now – it's all about not overwhelming the medical system when the serious cases start appearing.

COVID-19, the illness caused by coronavirus, proves deadly in around 3.5 percent of confirmed cases.

While this is not the same as its mortality rate, given many people may be infected but not realise it, it is significantly higher than seasonal flu, which typically kills 0.1 percent of patients.

"There is still considerable uncertainty around the fatality rates of COVID-19 and it likely varies depending on the quality of local healthcare," said Francois Balloux, Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London.

"That said, it is around two percent on average, which is about 20 times higher than for the seasonal flu lineages currently in circulation."

(...)

Disease experts estimate that each COVID-19 sufferer infects between two to 3 others.

That's a reproduction rate up to twice as high as seasonal flu, which typically infects 1.3 new people for each patient.


Source: https://www.sciencealert.com/the-new-coronavirus-isn-t-like-the-flu-but-they-have-one-big-thing-in-common (https://www.sciencealert.com/the-new-coronavirus-isn-t-like-the-flu-but-they-have-one-big-thing-in-common)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 15, 2020, 05:21:35 AM
Gotta say: watching the news from around the world I'm not seeing much of what I'd call panic. People have been encouragingly civilised. I was about to add "long may it last" nut that wouldnt be quite the right way of expressing the sentiment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Rinaldo on March 15, 2020, 05:24:02 AM
Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to "flatten the curve" (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 15, 2020, 05:54:20 AM
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-update-young-people-hospital-luca-lorini-bergamo-a9402531.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Rinaldo on March 15, 2020, 06:30:12 AM
Talk about gallows humor..

(https://i.imgur.com/EpePRsq.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 15, 2020, 06:46:36 AM
My point is that a 1% mortality rate is no reason for panic.

What if the mortality rate in your age group is 4% or 8% or more. Well, would you still say: No reason for panic, we are all going to die eventually?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 15, 2020, 07:04:27 AM
Thanks for posting this reassuring article Karl.
 :)

De nada, amigo!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 15, 2020, 07:40:52 AM
My point is that a 1% mortality rate is no reason for panic.

In Romania there are 131 confirmed cases and no deaths until now. In the context this is good news.

     Panic, at least the way the word is commonly used, is defined by no reason for it, though that might be misleading in the case of an H-bomb exploding just above you.

     The good news about Romania is that the later the pandemic develops, the more time there is to impose limits on the exponential rise in the number of cases. Here in Massachusetts we have about 138 recorded cases at last count by the failing Boston Globe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 15, 2020, 07:54:04 AM
     Panic, at least the way the word is commonly used, is defined by no reason for it, though that might be misleading in the case of an H-bomb exploding just above you.

     The good news about Romania is that the later the pandemic develops, the more time there is to impose limits on the exponential rise in the number of cases. Here in Massachusetts we have about 138 recorded cases at last count by the failing Boston Globe.

Dang "corporate media"!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 15, 2020, 08:25:32 AM
Dang "corporate media"!

Is Die Welt am Sonntag also dang corporate media?
They've just released an article in which is told that Trump is trying hard to buy a German bio-medical company (CureVac) that's been trying to develop a vaccin against the latest Corona virus. This company is a private company, but it works together with German government-related institutions. According to Die Welt, Trump wants those researches, findings and medicins exclusively for the USA. The German government wants to block the possible sale, but still, CureVac is a private company, which means that, in special occasions, they are allowed to decide on their own. Words in Berlin go that Trump is offering a billion.

For those who understand German:

https://amp.welt.de/wirtschaft/article206555143/Corona-USA-will-Zugriff-auf-deutsche-Impfstoff-Firma.html?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 15, 2020, 08:31:46 AM
Is Die Welt am Sonntag also dang corporate media?

How can we know, if Kyle does not pronounce unto us'ns?!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: ritter on March 15, 2020, 08:40:25 AM
Perhaps we could keep Kyle out of this thread? He’s present enough elsewhere on GMG.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 15, 2020, 08:42:47 AM
Is Die Welt am Sonntag also dang corporate media?
They've just released an article in which is told that Trump is trying hard to buy a German bio-medical company (CureVac) that's been trying to develop a vaccin against the latest Corona virus. This company is a private company, but it works together with German government-related institutions. According to Die Welt, Trump wants those researches, findings and medicins exclusively for the USA. The German government wants to block the possible sale, but still, CureVac is a private company, which means that, in special occasions, they are allowed to decide on their own. Words in Berlin go that Trump is offering a billion.

For those who understand German:

https://amp.welt.de/wirtschaft/article206555143/Corona-USA-will-Zugriff-auf-deutsche-Impfstoff-Firma.html?

I read that yesterday (Washington Post?). I’m not surprised.

The situation is tense in US airports. 6 hours to get your luggage, 2 hours standing shoulder to shoulder in the Customs file. People complain that airports are being transformed in virus incubators.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 15, 2020, 09:00:00 AM
Is Die Welt am Sonntag also dang corporate media?


     I think the point is that "corporate" is not the right framing for every kind of news. There is no distinctly corporate meaning to "138 cases in Massachusetts".
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 15, 2020, 09:00:36 AM
Perhaps we could keep Kyle out of this thread? He’s present enough elsewhere on GMG.

Fair enow!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 15, 2020, 09:01:08 AM
     I think the point is that "corporate" is not the right framing for every kind of news. There is no distinctly corporate meaning to "138 cases in Massachusetts".

Precisamente!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 15, 2020, 09:01:40 AM
     I think the point is that "corporate" is not the right framing for every kind of news. There is no distinctly corporate meaning to "138 cases in Massachusetts".

I was being ironic a bit, because of the 'mayhem' about the 'lying corporate media' in other Diner threads...
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 15, 2020, 09:04:14 AM
I was being ironic a bit, because of the 'mayhem' about the 'lying corporate media' in other Diner threads...

ed anche naturalmente!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 15, 2020, 09:08:41 AM
Precisamente!

ed anche naturalmente!

You're working on an Italian opera, Karl? ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: XB-70 Valkyrie on March 15, 2020, 01:17:58 PM
Could one of you heroes send me a few rolls of toilet paper??  ???   :laugh:
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 15, 2020, 01:53:02 PM
Current total of worldwide confirmed cases, per Johns Hopkins University: 162,687
 
Current number of worldwide deaths, per Johns Hopkins University: 6,065
 
Total countries affected thus far: 127
 
Massachusetts total cases: 45 confirmed, 119 presumptive
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 15, 2020, 02:27:37 PM
     Mortality rate by age, based on an analysis from Hubei province figures:

 Age Group — Mortality Rate

0-9 — <.01 percent
10-19 — .02 percent
20-29 — .09 percent
30-39 — .18 percent
40-49 — .40 percent
50-59 — 1.3 percent
60-69 — 4.6 percent
70-79 — 9.8 percent
80 & up — 18 percent
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 15, 2020, 03:16:34 PM
Journalists from the french daily Libération are calling on authories to up their response to the pandemic. In this article they say that the elderly are ‘sacrificed’ due to the lack of respirators. This can be correlated to the recent spike in deaths in Italy (368 yesterday only) and the Eco di Bergamo’s obituary pages that leapt from 1 and 1/2  page on February 9 to 10 pages on March 13 (Bergamo is at the epicenter of the outbreak in Italy). Last week’s patients are younger than at the beginning (in their forties). Doctors have to decide who will get the respirators, and some hard choices have to be made.


https://www.liberation.fr/planete/2020/03/12/journalistes-francais-en-italie-pour-que-la-france-prenne-enfin-la-mesure-du-danger_1781450 (https://www.liberation.fr/planete/2020/03/12/journalistes-francais-en-italie-pour-que-la-france-prenne-enfin-la-mesure-du-danger_1781450)

The article is in French.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 15, 2020, 03:39:11 PM

     I read this somewhere so I'll pass it on. This is a good time to stop using cash.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: mc ukrneal on March 15, 2020, 04:10:24 PM
An article about some of the behavior we are seeing:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/why-people-are-panic-buying-toilet-paper/ar-BB112sCl?ocid=msedgntp
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 15, 2020, 04:31:36 PM
An article about some of the behavior we are seeing:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/why-people-are-panic-buying-toilet-paper/ar-BB112sCl?ocid=msedgntp

     The question assumes something not in evidence, that panic and not an overactive precaution gland causes people to stock up. Stocking up means fewer shopping trips and fewer occasions for catching the virus. You get as much as you can in one trip and then you stay home like any rational neurotic should do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 15, 2020, 04:59:23 PM
Is Die Welt am Sonntag also dang corporate media?
They've just released an article in which is told that Trump is trying hard to buy a German bio-medical company (CureVac) that's been trying to develop a vaccin against the latest Corona virus. This company is a private company, but it works together with German government-related institutions. According to Die Welt, Trump wants those researches, findings and medicins exclusively for the USA. The German government wants to block the possible sale, but still, CureVac is a private company, which means that, in special occasions, they are allowed to decide on their own. Words in Berlin go that Trump is offering a billion.

For those who understand German:

https://amp.welt.de/wirtschaft/article206555143/Corona-USA-will-Zugriff-auf-deutsche-Impfstoff-Firma.html?
NPR this afternoon reported there are 18 different companies, in the US, plus various labs, biomedical centers, etc, working in a vaccine.

The headquarters of the CDC is located on the edge of my alma mater's campus (Emory University, home of the Carter Center and only school to have the honor of having the Dalai Lama listed as a faculty member).   The university emailed an update today, to say among other things two students possibly have the virus. So it's literally down the street from the CDC.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 16, 2020, 12:00:40 AM
I went into a local supermarket yesterday which appeared to have just been visited by a plague of locusts.

More encouragingly, a neighbour came round yesterday to ask for help in setting up a local support group to try and assist anyone in the village who needs help during the crisis. Apparently everyone so far had agreed to join the group.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 16, 2020, 02:36:03 AM
     Mortality rate by age, based on an analysis from Hubei province figures:

 Age Group — Mortality Rate

0-9 — <.01 percent
10-19 — .02 percent
20-29 — .09 percent
30-39 — .18 percent
40-49 — .40 percent
50-59 — 1.3 percent
60-69 — 4.6 percent
70-79 — 9.8 percent
80 & up — 18 percent

This list, which isn't corrected for other serious diseases (heart disease, chronic lung disease et.c.) and doesn't mention whether the patients have got relevant treatment or not, isn't that useful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 16, 2020, 03:29:45 AM
     The question assumes something not in evidence, that panic and not an overactive precaution gland causes people to stock up. Stocking up means fewer shopping trips and fewer occasions for catching the virus. You get as much as you can in one trip and then you stay home like any rational neurotic should do.

In other words, it's rational and acceptable, recommendable even, to fight over and stockpile toilet paper, food and beverages.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 16, 2020, 03:45:54 AM
This list, which isn't corrected for other serious diseases (heart disease, chronic lung disease et.c.) and doesn't mention whether the patients have got relevant treatment or not, isn't that useful.

We don't know whether it is corrected or not or whether the patients were treated or not because drogulus did not provide the source, but imo the figures might be quite realistic. The mortality begins to rise for the 50-59 yo group, accelerates for 60-69 and explodes for 70-79. For 80 and over it's a disaster. Nothing unexpected, it's common sense that the probablity of dying from Covid-19 is much greater for older people who, by the very fact of being old, already have "other serious diseases (heart disease, chronic lung disease et.c.)".

The real problem with this list (or any other) is that it refers to cases which have been reported and confirmed. If, as doctors say, about 80% of the people who get infected develop a form with mild symptoms, or even no symptoms at all, then probably there are many cases which have not been reported and that means that the mortality rate might be smaller in reality, though I suspect that the difference is not dramatic, at least not for the older age groups which would anyway mostly fall in the other 20% (medium or severe symptoms)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 16, 2020, 04:14:43 AM
We don't know whether it is corrected or not or whether the patients were treated or not because drogulus did not provide the source, but imo the figures might be quite realistic. The mortality begins to rise for the 50-59 yo group, accelerates for 60-69 and explodes for 70-79. For 80 and over it's a disaster. Nothing unexpected, it's common sense that the probablity of dying from Covid-19 is much greater for older people who, by the very fact of being old, already have "other serious diseases (heart disease, chronic lung disease et.c.)".

The real problem with this list (or any other) is that it refers to cases which have been reported and confirmed. If, as doctors say, about 80% of the people who get infected develop a form with mild symptoms, or even no symptoms at all, then probably there are many cases which have not been reported and that means that the mortality rate might be smaller in reality, though I suspect that the difference is not dramatic, at least not for the older age groups which would anyway mostly fall in the other 20% (medium or severe symptoms)

You may be right, but being medically educated myself I have often seen that estimates on an uncertain basis eventually proved to be incorrect. As the list stands, it is as well as certain, that it isn't corrected for anything. The problem with that kind of lists is, that I e.g. (being 70+ and not completely healthy but without complicating diseases which are relevant in this context) can't use it to see if my risk for serious disease is increased - and how much - if age is my only "disposition".
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 16, 2020, 04:37:29 AM
Tennessee man who stockpiled hand sanitizer donates 17,700 bottles ahead of investigation (https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/487711-tennessee-man-who-stockpiled-hand-sanitizer-donates-17700)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 16, 2020, 04:48:04 AM
The problem with that kind of lists is, that I e.g. (being 70+ and not completely healthy but without complicating diseases which are relevant in this context) can't use it to see if my risk for serious disease is increased - and how much - if age is my only "disposition".

That's correct.

But do you really need such a list in order to assess your personal risk? If you are 70+ but wiithout complicating diseases which are relevant in this context you can assume that if --- God forbid! --- you catch the virus and you get adequate treatment you are likely to get cured without complications. A worse scenario, or even the worst, cannot of course be completely excluded, for any age group, but I think a vigilant optimism and the strict following of general hygienic rules and Covid-19-specific rules and restrictions is the best, most rational and helpful attitude. Let us all do whatever we are supposed to do and whatever we are urged to do in order not to get infected --- what else could we do, anyway?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 16, 2020, 05:20:14 AM
I went into a local supermarket yesterday which appeared to have just been visited by a plague of locusts.

More encouragingly, a neighbour came round yesterday to ask for help in setting up a local support group to try and assist anyone in the village who needs help during the crisis. Apparently everyone so far had agreed to join the group.

Yeah!!   :)

Regarding the market shelves, I understand your feelings.  Hit a couple of stores yesterday with a friend of mine as we had gone (separately) the day before and experienced the shock of seeing many empty shelves, lots of fresh meat gone, frozen veg gone, etc.  Hadn't seen anything like that before (I'm grateful to say).  We went to a large supermarket getting there five minutes after they opened; number of cars in the lot (I suspect that isn't the normal case for an early Sunday morning).  We arrived there just in time: picked up some TP (not crazy amounts either)...the rest was gone in about 5-10 minutes.  No hand wipes to be found...did have some bleach there and fresh veggie area was good and they were busy restocking that.  Went to another market where I was able to purchase some chicken...my local co-op...well, no chicken in their cases but they did have some at the meat counter along with beef and fresh fish and lots of fresh veg.  Think that they were low-to-sold out of a number of frozen veg and frozen fruit.  Pretty crazy, but I was able to get 85-90% of what I wanted between the three stores.  Interestingly enough, a local small market still had about half of their normal amount of frozen veggies on their shelves (freezer units).

I do own a spare freezer (not huge but it does fill up surprisingly quickly!) which I purchased about a year ago as I do like to make things like chicken stock, soup, purchase some things when they are on sale, pick and freeze local produce, etc.

The irony:  we're supposed to social-distance as much as possible; so, how do you do this when the markets are packed?!   :( ???  I'm just trying to go less often at my end....and make sure that I'm organized before I get there (which I try to do anyways).

How are others coping here?  Are you 1) eating out less (if you did eat out often to begin with); 2) shopping less often?; 3) ordering, if possible, to have groceries and/or meals delivered?; 4) stocking up on anything in particular?; 5) cooking more of your meals from scratch?; 6) changing the time of day or days that you do shop?;  7) ordering more online?;   8 helping to shop for neighbors?  Just curious....stay safe everyone!

Best wishes,

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 16, 2020, 05:29:31 AM
This list, which isn't corrected for other serious diseases (heart disease, chronic lung disease et.c.) and doesn't mention whether the patients have got relevant treatment or not, isn't that useful.

     It's useful to me, because it fills a gap in knowledge. I know about the reasons why age matter for this disease, at least those that have been identified. I wanted to see the numbers, though.

     
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 16, 2020, 05:35:55 AM
In other words, it's rational and acceptable, recommendable even, to fight over and stockpile toilet paper, food and beverages.

     When I was in line at the store people were joking about it. I didn't see any fighting. If I did see signs of, how you say, panic, I would do my best to not accept it.

     Things should settle down as the stores continue to restock shelves and people run out of room for Campbell's cream of something soup and pop tarts.

     
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: ritter on March 16, 2020, 05:42:44 AM
...you can assume that if --- God forbid! --- you catch the virus and you get adequate treatment you are likely to get cured without complications....
The main problem appears to be that even the most advanced medical systems in the world (and, fortunately, Spain is generally considered to be among them) cannot cope with the surge of serious cases. Available space in IC units is running out, and previously unthinkable measures (such as medicalisation of some hotels) are being taken.

That’s why these drastic measures to contain the pandemic (or rather, delay its spread) are being taken,  so that adequate treatment is available when it’s really needed.

Madrid is now a ghost town, but there’s no shortage of foodstuffs in the markets and supermarkets in my neighbourhood (which is right in the middle of the old historic centre). There’s no such thing as “eating out” anymore (and surely Spaniards are a people that eat out all the time).

Regards to all,

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 16, 2020, 05:52:02 AM
The main problem appears to be that even the most advanced medical systems in the world (and, fortunately, Spain is generally considered to be among them) can cope with the surge of serious cases. Available space in IC units is running out, and previously unthinkable measures (such as medicalisation of some hotels) are being taken.

That’s why these drastic measures to contain the pandemic (or rather, delay its spread) are bring taken,  so that adequate treatment is available when it’s really needed.

Madrid is now a ghost town, but there’s no shortage of foodstuffs in the markets and supermarkets in my neighbourhood (which is right in the middle of the old historic centre). There’s no such thing as “eating out” anymore (and surely Spaniards are a people that eats out all the time).

Regards to all,



Exactly!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: steve ridgway on March 16, 2020, 06:08:08 AM
We're not taking the 91 year old father in law to cafes now, just going for a walk and getting take away food to eat outside away from crowded areas. We now stop at a small supermarket on the way to taking the dogs for a walk rather than after, so we avoid the time when it's packed with school kids buying their sweets, chocolate, cake, biscuits and fizzy drink.

What's the state of health of the elderly Italian population nowadays? I haven't been there for about 25 years and in Britain there is now much more obesity, diabetes and medication. My image of healthy people enjoying the Mediterranean diet and sunlight may thus no longer be correct.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 16, 2020, 06:27:30 AM

How are others coping here?  Are you 1) eating out less (if you did eat out often to begin with); 2) shopping less often?; 3) ordering, if possible, to have groceries and/or meals delivered?; 4) stocking up on anything in particular?; 5) cooking more of your meals from scratch?; 6) changing the time of day or days that you do shop?;  7) ordering more online?;   8 helping to shop for neighbors?  Just curious....stay safe everyone!

Not that much has changed. We like to cook at home and rarely go to restaurants nowadays, and we already had a load of toilet paper, canned goods etc. at home. I did go out shopping for some specific things yesterday. Stores are imposing a limit of 2 per customer on certain key items.

The main negative difference for me personally is that work is drying up. If business trips aren't being made, then deals aren't being done, then work is not being generated for me. I'm trying to make the most of the free time, which isn't hard because I can come up with lots of things to do.

The most depressing thing is that our local brewpub closed. I suppose it was inevitable, but we normally go there 2/3 times a week, often with dog. So I'm gonna miss that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 16, 2020, 07:28:58 AM

But do you really need such a list in order to assess your personal risk? If you are 70+ but wiithout complicating diseases which are relevant in this context you can assume that if --- God forbid! --- you catch the virus and you get adequate treatment you are likely to get cured without complications. A worse scenario, or even the worst, cannot of course be completely excluded, for any age group, but I think a vigilant optimism and the strict following of general hygienic rules and Covid-19-specific rules and restrictions is the best, most rational and helpful attitude. Let us all do whatever we are supposed to do and whatever we are urged to do in order not to get infected --- what else could we do, anyway?

Of course, I take my precautions, just as all other sensible people do. But it would be nice to see a statistic that showed my risk not being much higher than the average risk of all ages, instead of this which shows that people in my age group have got a relatively high risk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 16, 2020, 08:39:40 AM
We're not taking the 91 year old father in law to cafes now, just going for a walk and getting take away food to eat outside away from crowded areas. We now stop at a small supermarket on the way to taking the dogs for a walk rather than after, so we avoid the time when it's packed with school kids buying their sweets, chocolate, cake, biscuits and fizzy drink.

What's the state of health of the elderly Italian population nowadays? I haven't been there for about 25 years and in Britain there is now much more obesity, diabetes and medication. My image of healthy people enjoying the Mediterranean diet and sunlight may thus no longer be correct.
Sorry to hear that...particularly regarding your father-in-law.  How are his spirits holding up?

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 16, 2020, 08:44:33 AM
Not that much has changed. We like to cook at home and rarely go to restaurants nowadays, and we already had a load of toilet paper, canned goods etc. at home. I did go out shopping for some specific things yesterday. Stores are imposing a limit of 2 per customer on certain key items.

The main negative difference for me personally is that work is drying up. If business trips aren't being made, then deals aren't being done, then work is not being generated for me. I'm trying to make the most of the free time, which isn't hard because I can come up with lots of things to do.

The most depressing thing is that our local brewpub closed. I suppose it was inevitable, but we normally go there 2/3 times a week, often with dog. So I'm gonna miss that.
I'm very sorry to hear to hear about it effecting your work.  Is there a way that you could (or whomever is behind 'the deals') teleconference?  Or does one have to be physically there to demonstrate the product or design it, etc.?

And how long is the pub closed for--at the minimum?  Sounds like a nice place to go to too!

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 16, 2020, 08:47:16 AM
Of course, I take my precautions, just as all other sensible people do. But it would be nice to see a statistic that showed my risk not being much higher than the average risk of all ages, instead of this which shows that people in my age group have got a relatively high risk.

     That's true, but I suppose that the high risk associated with age incorporates all factors, including the likelihood that you have a standard mix of age related deficiencies in your immune system.

     I know I'm as well protected from seasonal flu as any person my age can be. That's not a strong indicator of how my immune system will function faced with a novel virus. The safe assumption is that I'm less safe than a 40 year old me would be. I also suppose that if we had a good chart for healthy people divided into the same age brackets we'd have a gentler curve.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: steve ridgway on March 16, 2020, 08:54:45 AM
Sorry to hear that...particularly regarding your father-in-law.  How are his spirits holding up?

PD

I don't think he appreciates what's going on, he's pretty confused, so actually he's quite cheerful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 16, 2020, 09:43:06 AM
I'm very sorry to hear to hear about it effecting your work.  Is there a way that you could (or whomever is behind 'the deals') teleconference?  Or does one have to be physically there to demonstrate the product or design it, etc.?

And how long is the pub closed for--at the minimum?  Sounds like a nice place to go to too!

PD

I'm a translator, so I'm working with documents on my computer, and all of this depends on having a smooth flow of international business. Demand naturally fluctuates, that's the nature of this freelance job, but I have no idea how long the current slowdown will last. Teleconferencing is irrelevant to me personally.

The brewpub is planning to close this week until it becomes safe to reopen. It is a nice place, in fact they just celebrated their 10th anniversary. They've won a lot of awards over that decade.

https://www.lbbrew.com/
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 16, 2020, 10:12:53 AM
The schools in the UK are staying open for now. I dislike Boris Johnson but think it is the right decision. If the school, where I teach, closes I will be expected to teach my classes by 'online video lessons' from home. Sounds like a total nightmare. Apparently my students will be able to see me but I will not be able to see them. I have a vision of trying to teach them from the living room of my house with the cat standing on the laptop keyboard and staring into the screen, as he often does, and my wife shouting from the kitchen for me to come and help with the washing up. I told my daughter about this nightmare scenario and her boss said that she wants to join my 'online lesson'.  ???
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 16, 2020, 10:15:38 AM
it would be nice to see a statistic that showed my risk not being much higher than the average risk of all ages, instead of this which shows that people in my age group have got a relatively high risk.

No doubt it will be a most reassuring thing. Well, let's wait for such statistics to be compiled and relesed, I'm sure somebody somewhere is working at it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Rinaldo on March 16, 2020, 10:20:50 AM
How are others coping here?  Are you 1) eating out less (if you did eat out often to begin with); 2) shopping less often?; 3) ordering, if possible, to have groceries and/or meals delivered?; 4) stocking up on anything in particular?; 5) cooking more of your meals from scratch?; 6) changing the time of day or days that you do shop?;  7) ordering more online?;   8 helping to shop for neighbors?  Just curious....stay safe everyone!

Restaurants are not an option anymore, so we're cooking (and having lots of fun coming up with recipes for meals we haven't had for ages). We've limited our shopping and try to plan ahead more, although we're not stocking up on anything. We've stitched together our own masks as most of the country is doing right now, including people making bunches of them for their local hospitals/retirement homes – the community really coming together is what gives me hope. I see neighbors helping each other and basically people acting in a sensible and unselfish way, now that they realized the true magnitude of this thing.

I can work my primary job from home, which makes things super easy for me, but I've got a lot of friends in the music/sound/theatre business who are suddenly without a paycheck, so we're trying to help them any way we can right now.

The schools in the UK are staying open for now. I dislike Boris Johnson but think it is the right decision.

I respectfully disagree. This is gambling with people's lives.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 16, 2020, 10:56:01 AM
Restaurants are not an option anymore, so we're cooking (and having lots of fun coming up with recipes for meals we haven't had for ages). We've limited our shopping and try to plan ahead more, although we're not stocking up on anything. We've stitched together our own masks as most of the country is doing right now, including people making bunches of them for their local hospitals/retirement homes – the community really coming together is what gives me hope. I see neighbors helping each other and basically people acting in a sensible and unselfish way, now that they realized the true magnitude of this thing.

I can work my primary job from home, which makes things super easy for me, but I've got a lot of friends in the music/sound/theatre business who are suddenly without a paycheck, so we're trying to help them any way we can right now.

I respectfully disagree. This is gambling with people's lives.

Re: your last point. I respect your view but am not so sure. If they close the schools the pupils will be at home and their parents may well be at work and therefore they may have to be looked after by their grandparents, who are probably more at risk than any other age group. Therefore the children risk passing on the virus to their grandparents. Whilst they are at school this is less likely to happen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 16, 2020, 12:28:53 PM
Re: your last point. I respect your view but am not so sure. If they close the schools the pupils will be at home and their parents may well be at work and therefore they may have to be looked after by their grandparents, who are probably more at risk than any other age group. Therefore the children risk passing on the virus to their grandparents. Whilst they are at school this is less likely to happen.

I'm sorry, Jeffrey, but I have to disagree. If both children are grandparents stay home, the risk of infection is minimal. If both kids and teachers and parents and grandparents intersect in schools (not to mention the public transportation which probably many if not most of them use to get there) the risk is much higher.

What Boris Johnson does with his "herd immunity" approach is simply medical darwinism: the young and the healty will certainly survive, the middle-aged and healthy will most likely survive, the old and healthy will possibly survive, the old and sick will surely die, but hey, it's the price we got to pay for getting immunity --- and all the while the economy keeps going on. This is cynicism run amok.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 16, 2020, 12:33:40 PM
I'm sorry, Jeffrey, but I have to disagree. If both children are grandparents stay home, the risk of infection is minimal. If both kids and teachers and parents and grandparents intersect in schools (not to mention the public transportation which probably many if not most of them use to get there) the risk is much higher.

What Boris Johnson does with his "herd immunity" approach is simply medical darwinism: the young and the healty will certainly survive, the middle-aged and healthy will most likely survive, the old and healthy will possibly survive, the old and sick will surely die, but hey, it's the price we got to pay for getting immunity --- and all the while the economy keeps going on. This is cynicism run amok.
Fair enough Andrei but the Chief Medical Officer said today that if one person in the house is infected then there is a very good chance that they will pass it on to others in the house.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 16, 2020, 01:02:43 PM
the Chief Medical Officer said today that if one person in the house is infected then there is a very good chance that they will pass it on to others in the house.

That's absolutely true, happened in Romania, where a person infected all his family. But I ask you: when is the probabilty of infection higher, when all persons in a household interact with many other persons, or when only a few persons in the household do?

Btw, the number of infections in Romania would have been much smaller if some people returning from high risk countries would have told the truth to the authorities and got placed in quarantine, or would have not left the quarantine. Of the 168 cases reported as I'm typing, 42 are officially prosecuted for either lying about the countries they were returning from, or for leaving the quarantine. Go figure!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 16, 2020, 01:56:32 PM
I'm a translator, so I'm working with documents on my computer, and all of this depends on having a smooth flow of international business. Demand naturally fluctuates, that's the nature of this freelance job, but I have no idea how long the current slowdown will last. Teleconferencing is irrelevant to me personally.

The brewpub is planning to close this week until it becomes safe to reopen. It is a nice place, in fact they just celebrated their 10th anniversary. They've won a lot of awards over that decade.

https://www.lbbrew.com/
Looks like a cool place!  And I see that they really DO spin vinyl!   ;D Have you ever brought any of your own albums to listen to there?

Hope that things pick up for you soon to regarding translating.

Best wishes,

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 16, 2020, 02:13:37 PM
The schools in the UK are staying open for now. I dislike Boris Johnson but think it is the right decision. If the school, where I teach, closes I will be expected to teach my classes by 'online video lessons' from home. Sounds like a total nightmare. Apparently my students will be able to see me but I will not be able to see them. I have a vision of trying to teach them from the living room of my house with the cat standing on the laptop keyboard and staring into the screen, as he often does, and my wife shouting from the kitchen for me to come and help with the washing up. I told my daughter about this nightmare scenario and her boss said that she wants to join my 'online lesson'.  ???
:laugh: Oh, dear!  But that is a funny image....sorry!   :)  Think that I'd worry more that my students would be so focused on my 'cute/amusing' cat that they wouldn't be listening to what I was saying!
*
Suggestions:  1) Kitty is to be (temporarily) barred from being in "X" room whilst you are teaching (make sure that food and water and favorite toys are elsewhere); 2) No communication allowed from family members whilst you are teaching (perhaps a note on the door to remind them)...short of an emergency, of course. 3) wondering whether or not you would need to have on hand some kind of dry-erase board?  Or do you use something like that in class at all?; 4) have a bottle of water nearby in event of a dry throat (is there a pause switch or could you go off-camera?) 5) turn off any landline phones in that room or temporarily unplug them; 6) have a good look in the mirror before having class; 7) clean your video/photo lens on the computer before class so no 'smudges'.   :)

*hopefull Kitty will not meow and/or scratch the door wanting to get into your room!

Schools closed here and a number of other organizations....some stores too either closing for either a couple of weeks, a few days, indefinitely?  I've received emails from a few businesses that I've signed up to and some of them are doing "curbside" sales:  some form of either order online or over the phone and they will meet you somewhere....could be entrance to the store...just outside...??
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 16, 2020, 02:17:43 PM
Restaurants are not an option anymore, so we're cooking (and having lots of fun coming up with recipes for meals we haven't had for ages). We've limited our shopping and try to plan ahead more, although we're not stocking up on anything. We've stitched together our own masks as most of the country is doing right now, including people making bunches of them for their local hospitals/retirement homes – the community really coming together is what gives me hope. I see neighbors helping each other and basically people acting in a sensible and unselfish way, now that they realized the true magnitude of this thing.

I can work my primary job from home, which makes things super easy for me, but I've got a lot of friends in the music/sound/theatre business who are suddenly without a paycheck, so we're trying to help them any way we can right now.

I respectfully disagree. This is gambling with people's lives.
Good to hear that you're having fun cooking!   :)  Wow, stitching your own masks?!  How do you know what to make them of and how effective they might be?  Obviously, something is better than nothing....
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: greg on March 16, 2020, 02:29:45 PM
First day of work from home.

This is just too good... so good that the next job I do I might only accept WFH positions... if possible...
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Ratliff on March 16, 2020, 02:51:11 PM
Good to hear that you're having fun cooking!   :)  Wow, stitching your own masks?!  How do you know what to make them of and how effective they might be?  Obviously, something is better than nothing....

Any mask will remind you not to touch your mouth or nose, and touching your mouth or nose after touching a contaminated surface is the most common mode of transmission. You can consciously avoid people who might sneeze in your direction, but it's almost impossible to remember not to touch your face.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 16, 2020, 03:07:28 PM
Looks like a cool place!  And I see that they really DO spin vinyl!   ;D Have you ever brought any of your own albums to listen to there?

Not yet, but I hope to when they reopen. Tuesday night is Vinyl Night, you can bring your own records and they will play them.

This came about because the previous manager was an indie rock fanatic, and he was spinning vinyl all the time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 16, 2020, 03:21:05 PM
Any mask will remind you not to touch your mouth or nose, and touching your mouth or nose after touching a contaminated surface is the most common mode of transmission. You can consciously avoid people who might sneeze in your direction, but it's almost impossible to remember not to touch your face.

So true. The chief of the health authorities in our country on TV told the viewers several times to avoid touching the face, but he himself did it all the time - being nervous I think, but the result is equally bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 16, 2020, 05:03:23 PM
I'm sorry, Jeffrey, but I have to disagree. If both children are grandparents stay home, the risk of infection is minimal. If both kids and teachers and parents and grandparents intersect in schools (not to mention the public transportation which probably many if not most of them use to get there) the risk is much higher.

What Boris Johnson does with his "herd immunity" approach is simply medical darwinism: the young and the healty will certainly survive, the middle-aged and healthy will most likely survive, the old and healthy will possibly survive, the old and sick will surely die, but hey, it's the price we got to pay for getting immunity --- and all the while the economy keeps going on. This is cynicism run amok.

Not quite.  The idea is to keep infection rates slower and old/sick as isolated as possible, until herd immunity develops. Meanwhile, if infection rate is manageable, hospitals will be able to provide ventilators and all other necessary care to the old/sick who do become infected.

In the US (not sure about elsewhere) the question of closing schools is complicated by the fact that schools serve not only as effective day care but also provide one or more meals per schoolday to kids from poor families. For these kids school means healthy food, possibly the main meals of the day.  So local authorities have to come up with alternate means of distributing meals and alternate day care for parents with no alternative.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: T. D. on March 16, 2020, 05:07:54 PM
FYI:
My brother is a doctor in Rochester, NY. This was his response (in personal e-mail) today to the standard "how's it going" question:

Crazy. Not a lot of cases yet but uncertainty and anxiety. The sad thing is that this illustrates how messed up our health care system is. The outfit that supplies our hospital with all personal protective gear was, until a few weeks ago, getting all of the materials from factories in Wuhan China. We have not gotten any of the results of the 250+ COVID tests and have just gotten the capacity to run the tests here today and capacity will only be about 100 a day.
The hospital and country are running out of gloves, masks and goggles.
Not a good scene.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 16, 2020, 05:16:13 PM
FYI:
My brother is a doctor in Rochester, NY. This was his response (in personal e-mail) today to the standard "how's it going" question:

Crazy. Not a lot of cases yet but uncertainty and anxiety. The sad thing is that this illustrates how messed up our health care system is. The outfit that supplies our hospital with all personal protective gear was, until a few weeks ago, getting all of the materials from factories in Wuhan China. We have not gotten any of the results of the 250+ COVID tests and have just gotten the capacity to run the tests here today and capacity will only be about 100 a day.
The hospital and country are running out of gloves, masks and goggles.
Not a good scene.


Oof!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 16, 2020, 05:40:26 PM

Governments are getting an F for their coronavirus response:

The UK:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/03/16/britain-coronavirus-disaster/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/03/16/britain-coronavirus-disaster/)

The USA:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/16/this-crisis-looks-worse-than-911-2008-collapse-will-we-finally-fix-our-politics/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/16/this-crisis-looks-worse-than-911-2008-collapse-will-we-finally-fix-our-politics/)

No real thumbs down on Trudeau from Canada’s newspapers, except those from my province (Québec), but they are in French, so no link. But here’s my assessment: F.

This analysis gives a very interesting perspective:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-first-coronavirus-error-was-complacency/ (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-first-coronavirus-error-was-complacency/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: mc ukrneal on March 16, 2020, 06:06:59 PM
Here is the problem in a nutshell:

(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19809044/march_15.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 16, 2020, 09:18:02 PM
Here's the government's model, this is what is guiding their policy

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 16, 2020, 10:48:29 PM
:laugh: Oh, dear!  But that is a funny image....sorry!   :)  Think that I'd worry more that my students would be so focused on my 'cute/amusing' cat that they wouldn't be listening to what I was saying!
*
Suggestions:  1) Kitty is to be (temporarily) barred from being in "X" room whilst you are teaching (make sure that food and water and favorite toys are elsewhere); 2) No communication allowed from family members whilst you are teaching (perhaps a note on the door to remind them)...short of an emergency, of course. 3) wondering whether or not you would need to have on hand some kind of dry-erase board?  Or do you use something like that in class at all?; 4) have a bottle of water nearby in event of a dry throat (is there a pause switch or could you go off-camera?) 5) turn off any landline phones in that room or temporarily unplug them; 6) have a good look in the mirror before having class; 7) clean your video/photo lens on the computer before class so no 'smudges'.   :)

*hopefull Kitty will not meow and/or scratch the door wanting to get into your room!

Schools closed here and a number of other organizations....some stores too either closing for either a couple of weeks, a few days, indefinitely?  I've received emails from a few businesses that I've signed up to and some of them are doing "curbside" sales:  some form of either order online or over the phone and they will meet you somewhere....could be entrance to the store...just outside...??
Good advice. Thank you PD  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 16, 2020, 10:51:04 PM
Not quite.  The idea is to keep infection rates slower and old/sick as isolated as possible, until herd immunity develops. Meanwhile, if infection rate is manageable, hospitals will be able to provide ventilators and all other necessary care to the old/sick who do become infected.

In the US (not sure about elsewhere) the question of closing schools is complicated by the fact that schools serve not only as effective day care but also provide one or more meals per schoolday to kids from poor families. For these kids school means healthy food, possibly the main meals of the day.  So local authorities have to come up with alternate means of distributing meals and alternate day care for parents with no alternative.

That's a good point Jeffrey. I expect that the schools here may well close by the end of the week any way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 16, 2020, 10:54:07 PM
That's absolutely true, happened in Romania, where a person infected all his family. But I ask you: when is the probabilty of infection higher, when all persons in a household interact with many other persons, or when only a few persons in the household do?

Btw, the number of infections in Romania would have been much smaller if some people returning from high risk countries would have told the truth to the authorities and got placed in quarantine, or would have not left the quarantine. Of the 168 cases reported as I'm typing, 42 are officially prosecuted for either lying about the countries they were returning from, or for leaving the quarantine. Go figure!
Yes, I see your point of course Andrei and that's very bad about people not telling the truth about where they have been.

Lots of discussion about the schools situation on the BBC News this morning. One good point is that for children from a poorer background their school meal may well be their only hot meal of the day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 17, 2020, 12:02:07 AM
That's a good point Jeffrey. I expect that the schools here may well close by the end of the week any way.

Shocking that the teachers unions have been once again so toothless, their members have been placed right on the front line, many of them are over 60 or have health problems.

The Imperial College report which is the best model we have suggests that social isolation will have to persist for at least 18 months, until a vaccine becomes available. If the schools in the UK close soon, it may be some time before they reopen permanently. There’s lots of opportunity here for distance learning to be developed.

The childcare issue is a real one, no one will want to let the grandparents look after the kids, everyone knows the dangers, and not everyone has grandparents. I’m not at all sure what the possibilities are - people will take the kids into work I guess - or leave them to fend for themselves - children are very adaptable of course. But socially it’s hard to see anything positive there. If it’s right that closing schools doesn’t have much of an impact on the epidemiology, it may be best to keep them open.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 17, 2020, 12:06:55 AM
Shocking that the teachers unions have been once again so toothless, their members have been placed right on the front line, many of them are over 60 or have health problems.

The Imperial College report which is the best model we have suggests that social isolation will have to persist for at least 18 months, until a vaccine becomes available. If the schools in the UK close soon, it may be some time before they reopen permanently. There’s lots of opportunity here for distance learning to be developed.

The childcare issue is a real one, no one will want to let the grandparents look after the kids, everyone knows the dangers. I’m not at all sure what the possibilities are - people will have to take the kids into work I guess - children are very adaptable of course.

Interesting. But if children are together in an ad hoc workplace daycare, how is that different from being together in a classroom?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 17, 2020, 12:13:20 AM
Interesting. But if children are together in an ad hoc workplace daycare, how is that different from being together in a classroom?

I don’t know if there’s some epidemiological consequence of putting a lot of kids together in a school.


In the case of two parent families, one can stay at home of course. Like mat/pat leave. They’ll be less well off but so be it. We’re all going to be less well off, apart from Mother Courage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 17, 2020, 12:15:58 AM
I don’t know if there’s some epidemiological consequence of putting a lot of kids together in a school.


I don't understand then. Why are schools being closed?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 17, 2020, 12:20:21 AM
I don't understand then. Why are schools being closed?

They havent been  closed in the UK, and the argument has always been that closing them doesn’t have a significant positive impact on mortality, and indeed may have a significant negative impact if vulnerable people get roped into the child care.


There was an interview in British TV yesterday where the health minister was asked why people should isolate themselves if the kids are coming home from school and infecting them - they may as well go to the pub since everyone’s already infected. The answer was all to do with protecting the vulnerable groups - grannies looking after kids etc -  everything is focused on stopping the vulnerable groups  from ever catching the virus,

You see how complicated these questions are! Can you imagine what it’s like to have to make these decisions?  Our leaders are going to earn their wages this year!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Crudblud on March 17, 2020, 01:16:47 AM
Seems like I got me the ol' corona cough. Two mornings running I've had an irritation on my chest and throat, yesterday it cleared up as the day progressed but it is much more pronounced this morning. It's not a big deal in terms of self-isolation since I'm quite a solitary person and have worked from home for a number of years, but I am nonetheless concerned about disrupting family business with my viral shenanigans.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 17, 2020, 02:12:00 AM
They havent been  closed in the UK, and the argument has always been that closing them doesn’t have a significant positive impact on mortality, and indeed may have a significant negative impact if vulnerable people get roped into the child care.


There was an interview in British TV yesterday where the health minister was asked why people should isolate themselves if the kids are coming home from school and infecting them - they may as well go to the pub since everyone’s already infected. The answer was all to do with protecting the vulnerable groups - grannies looking after kids etc -  everything is focused on stopping the vulnerable groups  from ever catching the virus,

You see how complicated these questions are! Can you imagine what it’s like to have to make these decisions?  Our leaders are going to earn their wages this year!

The Dutch government is (typically ;)) somewhere between Britain and the rest of Europe (like France, Spain, Italy): schools are closed, but there is no complete lockdown of/in the country. For the same reason as the Brits: protect the vulnerable groups, and let's give the stronger and healthy ones somehow the chance to build a natural 'group immunity' against the virus. (If I correct understandly, I'm not a medic.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 02:25:49 AM
In the US (not sure about elsewhere) the question of closing schools is complicated by the fact that schools serve not only as effective day care but also provide one or more meals per schoolday to kids from poor families. For these kids school means healthy food, possibly the main meals of the day.  So local authorities have to come up with alternate means of distributing meals and alternate day care for parents with no alternative.

for children from a poorer background their school meal may well be their only hot meal of the day.

Wait a minute, Jeffrey and Jeffrey! Do you mean that in 2020 AD in two of the richest countries in the world there are still numerous families so poor that they can't even afford to feed their children and, absent the school meal(s), the poor kids would be starving?  :o :o :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 02:39:11 AM
The Dutch government is (typically ;)) somewhere between Britain and the rest of Europe (like France, Spain, Italy): schools are closed, but there is no complete lockdown of/in the country.

Same here in Romania. The state of emergency has been instituted, kindergartens, schools and universities stay closed until after Easter (April 19), all those who can work from home. As of yet, no lockdown or traffic restrictions, but I think a responsible person doesn't need an official restriction in order not to go any more to restaurants, pubs, clubs or to criss cross the city, the county or the country without any pressing reason.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 02:40:32 AM
Seems like I got me the ol' corona cough. Two mornings running I've had an irritation on my chest and throat, yesterday it cleared up as the day progressed but it is much more pronounced this morning. It's not a big deal in terms of self-isolation since I'm quite a solitary person and have worked from home for a number of years, but I am nonetheless concerned about disrupting family business with my viral shenanigans.

Oh, God! You should get in touch with the medical authorities in charge immediately and without delay. Best of luck and speedy recovery!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: mc ukrneal on March 17, 2020, 03:03:44 AM
Wait a minute, Jeffrey and Jeffrey! Do you mean that in 2020 AD in two of the richest countries in the world there are still numerous families so poor that they can't even afford to feed their children and, absent the school meal(s), the poor kids would be starving?  :o :o :o
Yes. There are children who come to school without having had food for breakfast and without bringing a meal with them. Most (many?) districts offer some form of free food to students who need it. But not all. And some teachers/school workers spend their own money so that the kids can eat.  Is it not shocking and truly unbelievable?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 03:08:30 AM
Yes. There are children who come to school without having had food for breakfast and without bringing a meal with them. Most (many?) districts offer some form of free food to students who need it. But not all. And some teachers/school workers spend their own money so that the kids can eat.  Is it not shocking and truly unbelievable?

Shocking and unbelievable, yes. I'm beggining to wonder whether Poju is actually right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: mc ukrneal on March 17, 2020, 03:12:55 AM
Shocking and unbelievable, yes. I'm beggining to wonder whether Poju is actually right.
And if you want to see evidence of this, you can find clips of the Ellen show over the years where she gives away money to teachers and schools to help address this problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 03:39:00 AM
And if you want to see evidence of this, you can find clips of the Ellen show over the years where she gives away money to teachers and schools to help address this problem.

You told me it's true --- I need no more evidence (which I'm sure is widely available)

But really, this is not only shocking, it's also inacceptable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 17, 2020, 04:01:38 AM
Wait a minute, Jeffrey and Jeffrey! Do you mean that in 2020 AD in two of the richest countries in the world there are still numerous families so poor that they can't even afford to feed their children and, absent the school meal(s), the poor kids would be starving?  :o :o :o

It may be negligent parenting rather than poverty.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 04:12:41 AM
It may be negligent parenting rather than poverty.

Please elaborate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Crudblud on March 17, 2020, 04:27:17 AM
Oh, God! You should get in touch with the medical authorities in charge immediately and without delay. Best of luck and speedy recovery!
The current advice given by the UK government is to only seek professional help if/when symptoms become severe. They are totally ignoring the WHO's simple advice of "test, test, test", instead telling people to simply stay at home if they exhibit any symptoms. The NHS has been in dire straits for some time now, and the government seems to be taking the cheapo approach to public health during this crisis also. Doubts as to Johnson's fitness for office will surely be redoubled many times over as the situation progresses.

The cough has steadily abated over the course of the morning, as it did yesterday, but it's too early to say one way or the other whether this is a pattern of escalation or simply "one of those things", in fact impossible since (afaik) the NHS is not at present offering or even able to offer routine testing. I'm still young and healthy so I'm not worried for myself, the real concern is that I will heighten the risk posed to my elderly grandmother, who relies on my mother and I for help with shopping and other errands. The plan at this point is simply to keep myself clean and out of other people's way as much as possible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 17, 2020, 04:37:44 AM
Please elaborate.

Well they may not make sure that the children have a breakfast before going to school, for example. And in the evening they may just give them, for example, a cake to keep them quiet. Everyone here makes their own decisions about what to spend their money on, and how much attention to give their children.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 17, 2020, 04:38:23 AM
Shocking and unbelievable, yes. I'm beggining to wonder whether Poju is actually right.

The story I heard was that unless you personally have a plan for fixing it then you shouldn't worry about it.

Remind me who said that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 04:41:20 AM
The current advice given by the UK government is to only seek professional help if/when symptoms become severe.

Iow, don't you dare call for professional help before it might be too late. I am shocked by the irresponsibility and cynicism of the UK government.

Quote
Doubts as to Johnson's fitness for office will surely be redoubled many times over as the situation progresses.

I have no doubts the man's insane and at least as dangerous as the virus itself.

Quote
The cough has steadily abated over the course of the morning, as it did yesterday, but it's too early to say one way or the other whether this is a pattern of escalation or simply "one of those things", in fact impossible since (afaik) the NHS is not at present offering or even able to offer routine testing.

Yes, it might be just "one of those things" --- which I wish it were. But how can you know if you're not tested? And then, of course, the problem of potentially infecting your elderly relatives.

Quote
I'm still young and healthy so I'm not worried for myself,

Agreed.

Quote
the real concern is that I will heighten the risk posed to my elderly grandmother, who relies on my mother and I for help with shopping and other errands. The plan at this point is simply to keep myself clean and out of other people's way as much as possible.

A most wise plan, but I'm still shocked that the government itself has no plan whatsoever.



Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 17, 2020, 04:43:27 AM


A most wise plan, but I'm still shocked that the government itself has no plan whatsoever.

But I posted  the Government's plan, that document from Imperial College is their plan.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 04:44:57 AM
The story I heard was that unless you personally have a plan for fixing it then you shouldn't worry about it.

Remind me who said that.

I'm not worried about Americans or Brits accepting the current situation and you won't see me wringing my hands about it or copy-pasting articles about it and I'll sleep as usual tonight. t. I'm just saying that from my POV is inacceptable that they accept it. Whether they do something or not to address the problem is their business, not mine. I just expressed my view and move on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: mc ukrneal on March 17, 2020, 05:23:27 AM
It may be negligent parenting rather than poverty.
It is typically either poverty - they don't have the money that day/week/whatever or broken families (drugs, abuse, etc.). Either way, a child who comes to school hungry simply will not be able to do much learning (certainly less than if they had a meal).

This is handled on a district by district level. In the district I live in, they are able to come to school a half hour early (for example) to get breakfast for free. During the corona thingy, the schools are doing a drive thru, where families can come to designated schools and pick up food at the curb.  But every school district has their own rules. I believe that most (if not all) big cities have a program.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 17, 2020, 05:29:12 AM
Any mask will remind you not to touch your mouth or nose, and touching your mouth or nose after touching a contaminated surface is the most common mode of transmission. You can consciously avoid people who might sneeze in your direction, but it's almost impossible to remember not to touch your face.
I heard other comments not long ago about you could actually end up touching your face more adjusting it from time to time, so??? :-\

PD

p.s.  I was using one outside not long ago (doing dusty yard work involving lawn mower) and I was constantly adjusting it and sometimes taking it off because it was so hot!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 17, 2020, 05:43:00 AM
Seems like I got me the ol' corona cough. Two mornings running I've had an irritation on my chest and throat, yesterday it cleared up as the day progressed but it is much more pronounced this morning. It's not a big deal in terms of self-isolation since I'm quite a solitary person and have worked from home for a number of years, but I am nonetheless concerned about disrupting family business with my viral shenanigans.
Hope you get better soon - and then you should be immune.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 17, 2020, 05:45:38 AM
Hope you get better soon - and then you should be immune.

+1. Take care!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 05:47:04 AM
Everyone here makes their own decisions about what to spend their money on, and how much attention to give their children.

I'm perfectly fine with everyone making their own decisions about what to spend their money on as long as their decision affects only themselves and nobody else; the moment a drunkard husband starts beating his wife it's the duty of the State to intervene and say: you can drunk yourself to death if you so wish, by all means go ahead, but if you cannot and will not stop beating your wife then we'll see to it that you'd better fucking stay away from her or else. Likewise, if parents decide to give their children only minimal food to keep them quiet because they want their money spent on other things, then it's the duty of the State to intervene and say: you can of course spend your money on anything you want but since you cannot and will not take proper care of your own children then we'll see to it that they are properly taken care of by somebody else.

Blimey, it took this bloody coronavirus crisis to realize I'm much more left-leaning than I ever thoght.  :laugh:

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 17, 2020, 05:49:00 AM
The Dutch government is (typically ;)) somewhere between Britain and the rest of Europe (like France, Spain, Italy): schools are closed, but there is no complete lockdown of/in the country. For the same reason as the Brits: protect the vulnerable groups, and let's give the stronger and healthy ones somehow the chance to build a natural 'group immunity' against the virus. (If I correct understandly, I'm not a medic.)
That sounds right to me. I noticed on the news yesterday that the Dutch government was following a not dissimilar policy to the UK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 17, 2020, 05:56:37 AM
Wait a minute, Jeffrey and Jeffrey! Do you mean that in 2020 AD in two of the richest countries in the world there are still numerous families so poor that they can't even afford to feed their children and, absent the school meal(s), the poor kids would be starving?  :o :o :o

Children from poor families (and they do exist) may be eligible for free school meals and have a more nutritious diet than they get at home. The other dark issue is if the children are sent home into a situation of psychological/emotional neglect/abuse. There are many people around, and not only children, who feel safer and happier at school or work. This is a very difficult issue at the moment but there was an interesting discussion about it on the radio yesterday.

As a 60+ teacher I'm very aware of the risks of keeping the schools open but I do not think that the govt was necessarily wrong to do so.

By the way, I only represent the views of one Jeffrey here.   8)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 17, 2020, 06:00:57 AM
Yesterday Canada closed its borders to all countries (meaning flights) except the USA. Much questions and criticism were raised as to why except the US from its emergency plan.

Word is that canadian authorities fear a trumpian anger fit (and its consequences) because that would be a confirmation that Trump denied, didn’t anticipate, minimized and mismanaged the outbreak. For example, Canada has tested 25000 people so far. The USA has also tested 25000 people, but its population is 9 times larger. Clearly there is a prevalent state of unpreparedness and disorganization south of the border. Closing our border to the US would make Trump look bad. Very bad.

Why should that concern Trudeau and Canadians, then? 50% of our medical supplies come from the USA, and 80% of our commerce exchanges are with the US. A retaliatory move by Trump, such as keeping all med supplies for Americans only would be devastating to our health system’s capacity to handle the crisis. Kind of Trump saying ‘We’re not going down alone’...
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 06:02:32 AM
Children from poor families (and they do exist) may be eligible for free school meals and have a more nutritious diet than they get at home.

Note to SimonNZ: What I find inacceptable (from my own POV) is that such poor families still exist in one of the richest countries in the world, but if it is really a problem to be addressed it's for the UK people themselves to decide. I can only notice that apparently it's not, at least not for a critical mass of the UK people.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: ritter on March 17, 2020, 06:03:24 AM
The current advice given by the UK government is to only seek professional help if/when symptoms become severe. They are totally ignoring the WHO's simple advice of "test, test, test", instead telling people to simply stay at home if they exhibit any symptoms. The NHS has been in dire straits for some time now, and the government seems to be taking the cheapo approach to public health during this crisis also. Doubts as to Johnson's fitness for office will surely be redoubled many times over as the situation progresses.

The cough has steadily abated over the course of the morning, as it did yesterday, but it's too early to say one way or the other whether this is a pattern of escalation or simply "one of those things", in fact impossible since (afaik) the NHS is not at present offering or even able to offer routine testing. I'm still young and healthy so I'm not worried for myself, the real concern is that I will heighten the risk posed to my elderly grandmother, who relies on my mother and I for help with shopping and other errands. The plan at this point is simply to keep myself clean and out of other people's way as much as possible.
Yes, the seems to be the most sensible approach. I wish you a speedy and full recovery.

Bon courage!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 17, 2020, 06:07:13 AM
Shocking and unbelievable, yes. I'm beggining to wonder whether Poju is actually right.

     There is no question that he is right. Just look at the personal nature of the responses to his observations, which focus on how radical a source he uses is and how unreasonably blinkered he is about a politician.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Iota on March 17, 2020, 06:16:43 AM
The cough has steadily abated over the course of the morning, as it did yesterday, but it's too early to say one way or the other whether this is a pattern of escalation or simply "one of those things", in fact impossible since (afaik) the NHS is not at present offering or even able to offer routine testing. I'm still young and healthy so I'm not worried for myself, the real concern is that I will heighten the risk posed to my elderly grandmother, who relies on my mother and I for help with shopping and other errands. The plan at this point is simply to keep myself clean and out of other people's way as much as possible.

Good luck!

My brother (in his sixties) had to be hospitalised with it, but now seems on the mend and imminently to be allowed home. His wife also picked it up at the same scientific conference in Boston, but went to France to visit her mother straight after before either of them knew, and is now stranded there. Her symptoms, though unpleasant, were not as bad and her fever now finally seems to have turned.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: pjme on March 17, 2020, 06:20:46 AM
Children from poor families (and they do exist) may be eligible for free school meals and have a more nutritious diet than they get at home. The other dark issue is if the children are sent home into a situation of psychological/emotional neglect/abuse. There are many people around, and not only children, who feel safer and happier at school or work.

Exactly the situation in Belgium.
P.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 17, 2020, 06:22:23 AM
Exactly the situation in Belgium.
P.

Same here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 06:41:06 AM
     There is no question that he is right. Just look at the personal nature of the responses to his observations, which focus on how radical a source he uses is and how unreasonably blinkered he is about a politician.

C'est le ton qui fait la chanson . I think that not even you can seriously deny that saying "I'm right about cause X and all those who disagree with me are just idiots/brainswashed/ill-willed" can make a rational person sympathetic to cause X recoil in horror.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 06:44:46 AM
Exactly the situation in Belgium.
P.

OMG!!! The Western World is much more amiss than I've ever thought it was.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 17, 2020, 06:48:00 AM
Seems like I got me the ol' corona cough. Two mornings running I've had an irritation on my chest and throat, yesterday it cleared up as the day progressed but it is much more pronounced this morning. It's not a big deal in terms of self-isolation since I'm quite a solitary person and have worked from home for a number of years, but I am nonetheless concerned about disrupting family business with my viral shenanigans.

Be sure to call a doctor though if you really begin to suffer from breathing difficulties.
Stay safe!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: pjme on March 17, 2020, 06:48:27 AM
With or without corona:

The threat of becoming poor continues to hang over Belgians, according to the latest Statbel figures, which show that in 2018, just over 16% of the country’s inhabitants risked financial poverty.

This is the highest level since 2004, when such measurements were begun, according to the national statistical office.

The poverty risk is calculated on the basis of available income. Anyone living in a household with a monthly available income of less than 1,187 euros (for a single person) is considered at risk. Last year, 16.4% of the Belgian population belonged to this category, up from 15.9% in 2017.

Unsurprisingly, the poverty risk is higher among homeless persons (49.4%) than among workers (5.2%). Other high-risk categories include single-parent families and renters. People with at best a lower-secondary diploma are four times more likely to become poor than those with higher diplomas (27.8% as against 6.4%).

According to Statbel, 12.1% of the population were in households with low labour intensity in 2018, down from 13.5% in 2017. The proportion of Belgians suffering from severe material deprivation also decreased slightly, from 5.1% in 2017 to 4.9% in 2018.

Persons facing at least one of the high-risk situations are considered at risk of poverty or social exclusion, according to the European Poverty Indicator, developed within the framework of the “Europe 2020 Strategy. In 2018, they comprised 19.8% of the population, as against 20.3% in 2017.

Oscar Schneider
The Brussels Times
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 17, 2020, 06:49:53 AM
    We (there can be only 2) were supposed to fly to Paris in May. Oh well.....

C'est le ton qui fait la chanson . I think that not even you can seriously deny that saying "I'm right about cause X and all those who disagree with me are just idiots/brainswashed/ill-willed" can make a rational person sympathetic to cause X recoil in horror.

     Did you just do that? Since when is recoiling in horror an argument? I understood your wonder as expressing the opposite view.

     
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 17, 2020, 06:54:11 AM
Good advice. Thank you PD  :)
Or, you could print out a copy of this and paste it onto a board and then hold it up in front of you and do the talking behind it.   :D

(https://kittybloger.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/cats-love-computers-4.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 17, 2020, 06:55:04 AM
Seems like I got me the ol' corona cough. Two mornings running I've had an irritation on my chest and throat, yesterday it cleared up as the day progressed but it is much more pronounced this morning. It's not a big deal in terms of self-isolation since I'm quite a solitary person and have worked from home for a number of years, but I am nonetheless concerned about disrupting family business with my viral shenanigans.
Please take good care of yourself and all good wishes too towards your family and friends.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 17, 2020, 06:55:43 AM
With or without corona:

The threat of becoming poor continues to hang over Belgians, according to the latest Statbel figures, which show that in 2018, just over 16% of the country’s inhabitants risked financial poverty.

This is the highest level since 2004, when such measurements were begun, according to the national statistical office.

The poverty risk is calculated on the basis of available income. Anyone living in a household with a monthly available income of less than 1,187 euros (for a single person) is considered at risk. Last year, 16.4% of the Belgian population belonged to this category, up from 15.9% in 2017.

Unsurprisingly, the poverty risk is higher among homeless persons (49.4%) than among workers (5.2%). Other high-risk categories include single-parent families and renters. People with at best a lower-secondary diploma are four times more likely to become poor than those with higher diplomas (27.8% as against 6.4%).

According to Statbel, 12.1% of the population were in households with low labour intensity in 2018, down from 13.5% in 2017. The proportion of Belgians suffering from severe material deprivation also decreased slightly, from 5.1% in 2017 to 4.9% in 2018.

Persons facing at least one of the high-risk situations are considered at risk of poverty or social exclusion, according to the European Poverty Indicator, developed within the framework of the “Europe 2020 Strategy. In 2018, they comprised 19.8% of the population, as against 20.3% in 2017.

Oscar Schneider
The Brussels Times

     However convenient a poverty class may be in normal times (I don't think at all, others disagree), it's very dangerous in a crisis like this one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 17, 2020, 07:52:22 AM
Or, you could print out a copy of this and paste it onto a board and then hold it up in front of you and do the talking behind it.   :D

(https://kittybloger.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/cats-love-computers-4.jpg)
Brilliant! Excellent plan.
 8)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 17, 2020, 07:59:28 AM
Be sure to call a doctor though if you really begin to suffer from breathing difficulties.
Stay safe!

Precisely what I also would say.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 17, 2020, 08:08:03 AM
Not much is known about the situation in Russia, as the government keeps mum on the subject. A CBC article says it’s a time bomb.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 17, 2020, 08:42:15 AM
Seems like I got me the ol' corona cough. Two mornings running I've had an irritation on my chest and throat, yesterday it cleared up as the day progressed but it is much more pronounced this morning. It's not a big deal in terms of self-isolation since I'm quite a solitary person and have worked from home for a number of years, but I am nonetheless concerned about disrupting family business with my viral shenanigans.

Mend quickly!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 17, 2020, 08:49:03 AM
     There is no question that he is right. Just look at the personal nature of the responses to his observations, which focus on how radical a source he uses is and how unreasonably blinkered he is about a politician.

Nothing about the responses which acknowledge that there are problems to be addressed, but that the question is just how they may practically addressed?

You're right: there's no question that he's right,  he hasn't a clue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 09:00:15 AM
I understood your wonder as expressing the opposite view.

If I ask "hoyougonnadoit" (to borrow your favorite exoression) it doesn't follow I'm against "doing it". On the contrary, it might  mean I would like it done as quickly as possible in the real world.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 09:07:27 AM
the question is just how they may practically addressed?

Precisely. As long as there will be starving children*, the question is not what is the best government which does not result in starving children, but rather how can starving children be fed.

Answer: starving children need food, not posts/articles/hand-wringing about their getting food.

* ie, until kingdom come
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 17, 2020, 09:20:10 AM
Stop & Shop offering special hours for coronavirus high risk shoppers (https://www.newsbreak.com/news/0ORwh1HV/stop-shop-offering-special-hours-for-coronavirus-high-risk-shoppers?s=oldSite&ss=a1)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 17, 2020, 09:28:23 AM
Please take good care of yourself and all good wishes too towards your family and friends.

Amen to the above!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 09:33:47 AM
     However convenient a poverty class may be in normal times

I fail to see how poverty can be convenient, except as a permanent electoral reservoir for some leftists. Just come to think of it: if everybody will be lift off poverty most leftists will be left (pun) without argument.

Note to drogulus: if you have something to post about coronavirus, I'll be glad to reply. If not, I won't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 17, 2020, 09:37:42 AM
Really annoyed here!  I'm trying to be good and stay home most of the time and my doorbell rings:  it's a guy from an energy company wanting to talk to me about switching providers!  I told him I was trying to keep a 6 foot distance due to the virus!  And he's about 2 feet away from me and going around door to door during this epidemic!  What the h*%l is that company thinking?!   >:(

And I hate solicitations/marketers to begin with!  >:(

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 17, 2020, 09:38:17 AM
Really annoyed here!  I'm trying to be good and stay home most of the time and my doorbell rings:  it's a guy from an energy company wanting to talk to me about switching providers!  I told him I was trying to keep a 6 foot distance due to the virus!  And he's about 2 feet away from me and going around door to door during this epidemic!  What the h*%l is that company thinking?!   >:(

And I hate solicitations/marketers to begin with!  >:(

PD

Yeesh!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: mc ukrneal on March 17, 2020, 09:42:15 AM
Really annoyed here!  I'm trying to be good and stay home most of the time and my doorbell rings:  it's a guy from an energy company wanting to talk to me about switching providers!  I told him I was trying to keep a 6 foot distance due to the virus!  And he's about 2 feet away from me and going around door to door during this epidemic!  What the h*%l is that company thinking?!   >:(

And I hate solicitations/marketers to begin with!  >:(

PD
I never open the door to people I don't know. Period. You can ask questions through the door if necessary. When was the last time a stranger came to your door and it was really important that you hear it (and the person was not in a fire or police uniform)? Exactly....
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 09:43:09 AM
Not much is known about the situation in Russia, as the government keeps mum on the subject.

Vodka kills every known virus in the world, said Yeltsyn who engendered Putin.

So there.

 ;D ;D ;D

Seriously now, I don't trust Russians even when they say "Good Day!"

 ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 17, 2020, 09:49:19 AM
Really annoyed here!  I'm trying to be good and stay home most of the time and my doorbell rings:  it's a guy from an energy company wanting to talk to me about switching providers!  I told him I was trying to keep a 6 foot distance due to the virus!  And he's about 2 feet away from me and going around door to door during this epidemic!  What the h*%l is that company thinking?!   >:(

And I hate solicitations/marketers to begin with!  >:(

PD

You should have started coughing and complaining about your runny nose.... >:D

I live in a townhouse, and am usually upstairs,  So when the (now relatively rare) solicitor comes around,  I open up the front bedroom window and talk to them from there.

A few months ago, the man running against the incumbent mayor of my city came around, going door to door in anticipation of the election (which is today).  First time a politician has come to my door in a while.  I ended up voting for him.  Both as a courtesy for the door to door campaign, and because the incumbent is doing a huge number of mailings, most negative.  I go by the rule that if a person spends a lot of money to get elected, then that person is not someone I want in office.  He (or she) wants it to badly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 10:06:56 AM
I go by the rule that if a person spends a lot of money to get elected, then that person is not someone I want in office. 

Agreed wholeheartedly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Daverz on March 17, 2020, 10:28:43 AM
It's just starting to sink in here how long this thing may last

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/17/21181694/coronavirus-covid-19-lockdowns-end-how-long-months-years

And I'm running out of beer.   :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 17, 2020, 10:37:24 AM
Yeesh!
I never open the door to people I don't know. Period. You can ask questions through the door if necessary. When was the last time a stranger came to your door and it was really important that you hear it (and the person was not in a fire or police uniform)? Exactly....

Silly me!  I had at first thought that it was someone from a utility company or maybe census bureau on official (necessary) business.  And yes, next time I'll answer through the door's crack...at least 'til things have calmed down.   :(

I did let the police know and the officer who answered the non-emergency number agreed that it was not a smart thing for the guy to be doing at this point in time and would talk to their supervisor about that; and, hopefully,  if they found him would suggest that to him.  I tried calling the company first, but I must have gotten the name of it incorrectly as they said that they would never send people around like that.  Anyhoo....
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 17, 2020, 10:38:34 AM
You should have started coughing and complaining about your runny nose.... >:D

I live in a townhouse, and am usually upstairs,  So when the (now relatively rare) solicitor comes around,  I open up the front bedroom window and talk to them from there.

A few months ago, the man running against the incumbent mayor of my city came around, going door to door in anticipation of the election (which is today).  First time a politician has come to my door in a while.  I ended up voting for him.  Both as a courtesy for the door to door campaign, and because the incumbent is doing a huge number of mailings, most negative.  I go by the rule that if a person spends a lot of money to get elected, then that person is not someone I want in office.  He (or she) wants it to badly.
Oh, that would have been way way too cruel!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 10:44:57 AM
I'm running out of beer.   :(

I'm beginning to run out of my next-to-last barrel of home-made wine.

I promised myself --- and I will keep my promise, so help me my wife! --- not to open the last barrel before Easter (April 19, that is). So if I run out of wine I'll go the beer route --- I don't know about USA but here in Romanai there's never going to be any shortage of beer.

Really. folks --- in the last few weeks I realized that Romania may look like an Eastern Europe backward country to foreigners but to myself, accustomed as I am to Romania inside out, it looks like one of the best countries to be in right now. I mean, 184 infections, 18 people cured and not a single death in 3 weeks doesn't look that bad, eh?

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 17, 2020, 10:49:34 AM
Silly me!  I had at first thought that it was someone from a utility company or maybe census bureau on official (necessary) business.  And yes, next time I'll answer through the door's crack...at least 'til things have calmed down.   :(

I did let the police know and the officer who answered the non-emergency number agreed that it was not a smart thing for the guy to be doing at this point in time and would talk to their supervisor about that; and, hopefully,  if they found him would suggest that to him.  I tried calling the company first, but I must have gotten the name of it incorrectly as they said that they would never send people around like that.  Anyhoo....

If they denied knowing about it, he may have been a scam artist.  In which case the police really do need to find him!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 17, 2020, 10:52:24 AM
It's just starting to sink in here how long this thing may last

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/17/21181694/coronavirus-covid-19-lockdowns-end-how-long-months-years

And I'm running out of beer.   :(

The article includes a picture of Fort Lauderdale Beach.  My original plans for today (I was scheduled off from work) included a nice walk there.  The weather here is perfect--no rain, lows aboug 70F, highs in the mid80s--for the beach.

Sigh.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 10:55:30 AM
a nice walk there.  The weather here is perfect-

Talk about *I want it all and I want it now!*   :laugh:
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 17, 2020, 10:59:35 AM
Talk about *I want it all and I want it now!*   :laugh:

Yes, but I hardly ever go to the beach.  Either it's raining, or it's the middle of snowbird season, or it's summer and it's too dang hot out to enjoy being outside.  Even if the outside is the ocean surf.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 17, 2020, 11:05:42 AM
I'm beginning to run out of my next-to-last barrel of home-made wine.

I promised myself --- and I will keep my promise, so help me my wife! --- not to open the last barrel before Easter (April 19, that is). So if I run out of wine I'll go the beer route --- I don't know about USA but here in Romanai there's never going to be any shortage of beer.

Really. folks --- in the last few weeks I realized that Romania may look like an Eastern Europe backward country to foreigners but to myself, accustomed as I am to Romania inside out, it looks like one of the best countries to be in right now. I mean, 184 infections, 18 people cured and not a single death in 3 weeks doesn't look that bad, eh?



May the mildness continue!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 11:07:43 AM
May the mildness continue!

Thanks, to USA as well!

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 11:10:02 AM
I hardly ever go to the beach.  Either it's raining, or it's the middle of snowbird season, or it's summer and it's too dang hot out to enjoy being outside.  Even if the outside is the ocean surf.

Then it's really a trifle for you staying home. Listening all day long to music --- must be heaven, aint'it it?

Really now...
 
If you had asked most of the very same people who are now forced to work from home, they'd have told you they unfortunately had no time to spend with their children due to their job consumming most of their time. Now that they are forced to work from home, they complain about not being able to work normally. But, for God's sake, now they are forced to spend most of their time at home, with their chidlren -- so what are they complaining about?

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 17, 2020, 11:21:38 AM
It's just starting to sink in here how long this thing may last

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/17/21181694/coronavirus-covid-19-lockdowns-end-how-long-months-years

And I'm running out of beer.   :(

Aye.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 17, 2020, 11:32:10 AM
If they denied knowing about it, he may have been a scam artist.  In which case the police really do need to find him!
Could be, or could be I just got the energy company's name wrong too!
The article includes a picture of Fort Lauderdale Beach.  My original plans for today (I was scheduled off from work) included a nice walk there.  The weather here is perfect--no rain, lows aboug 70F, highs in the mid80s--for the beach.

Sigh.....
Sorry, it sounds like it would have been a lovely walk!  I hope to go out for one myself--though not on a beach.  So, go stretch your legs...any parks nearby?   :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: geralmar on March 17, 2020, 11:38:05 AM
We Americans know how to protect ourselves during the Trump virus pandemic:

https://time.com/5804562/coronavirus-fears-gun-sales/
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Rinaldo on March 17, 2020, 11:39:11 AM
Not much is known about the situation in Russia, as the government keeps mum on the subject. A CBC article says it’s a time bomb.

The silence is worrying, to say the least, although I was wondering if geographical separation of large cities might play a positive role over there?

Went emergency shopping (read: we ran out of wine) today. My mask was in the washing machine so a scarf had to do.

(https://i.imgur.com/gEif4s7.jpg)

Felt a strong urge to shout "everybody be cool, this is a robbery!" when entering the supermarket.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 11:51:15 AM
I am not a doctor or biologist or virologist. I'm an engineer, so take all my comments cum grano salis.

Quote from: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents  is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic.

1918, really? How about 1968 Hong Kong flu? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_flu_pandemic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_flu_pandemic)

Quote
Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks

Recent weeks, that is 3 (three) weeks. In these three weeks Italy has witnessed a national tragedy. Epidemiological modelling with respect to Italy is completely irrelevant since during the same three weeks Romania has confirmed 184 cases and not a single death
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 11:54:53 AM
Quote
In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of public  health  measures –so-called  non-pharmaceutical  interventions  (NPIs) –aimed  at  reducing contactrates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain specifically) and the US.

Let's see that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 11:59:22 AM
Quote
Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread

"slowing but not necessarily stopping" --- what medical authority gets to decide?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 12:02:35 PM
Quote
suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case  numbers to low  levels  and  maintaining  that  situation  indefinitely

Who gets to decide it's indefinitedly?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 12:08:21 PM
Quote
We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths  by  half. However, the  resulting  mitigated  epidemic  would  still likely  result  in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.

IOW, medical darwinism is the preferred policy option: whoever will survive will get stronger and good for them!, whoever will die bad luck for them!.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 12:16:32 PM
To be continued,

Feel free to comment meanwhile.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 17, 2020, 01:15:27 PM
A bit of (mostly) humor (add a 'u' if you must) to try and lighten things up here for a brief moment anyway.  From the tennis world (various players, organizations, etc.) after the announcement that Roland Garros (the French Open) had been moved to the end of September and on dealing with the virus, quarantine, etc....

https://twitter.com/TennysSandgren/status/1238155503345135617?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1238155503345135617&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.atptour.com%2Fen%2Fnews%2Fwawrinka-cilic-best-social-media-post-march-2020
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 17, 2020, 01:23:56 PM
Not the news Italy needs:

Coronavirus news: death toll in Italy rises by 16% in 24 hours (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/17/coronavirus-live-news-updates-uk-us-australia-europe-france-italy-who-self-isolation-travel-bans-borders-latest-update)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 17, 2020, 01:29:26 PM
IRS gives Americans 3-month break to file taxes
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: 71 dB on March 17, 2020, 02:06:35 PM
Finland started to take political actions this week and it feels like we are at war against Corona. I'm nervous for my dad, 81 who is alone home avoiding all social contacts. I don't care about US politics right now. I have enough problems in my life. I feel my "quota" is full. I concentrate on my own well-being now. Sure, Finland is a well-functioning society with good infrastructure to deal with problems like this, but it's serious nevertheless. Just week ago my life was quite normal. Now I am planning my grocery store visits to minimaze interactions with other people... ...so I have no energy and interest to follow "latest polls" in primary states etc. stuff.

Fuck China for creating this mess!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 17, 2020, 03:15:04 PM
IRS gives Americans 3-month break to file taxes
Pardon, but I'm not quite certain if your comment is totally accurate Karl.  One article that I looked at on a news website said that one still needed to file on time, but it sounded like one might (depending upon eligibility?) then not have to pay (if you do owe) the amount due for 90 days without incurring interest and/or penalties?

I'd advise anyone to check with either your (if you have one) tax preparer and/or the IRS website (might not be up to date yet as far as I can see?).  And also check with your state to see if they are offering any breaks too.

Hard to keep up with all of the news and ideas at the moment!  No criticism meant too Karl.  I'm struggling at this end to follow all of the news, possible breaks, economic stimuli, etc.!

Confused at this end,

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 17, 2020, 03:23:32 PM
Pardon, but I'm not quite certain if your comment is totally accurate Karl.  One article that I looked at on a news website said that one still needed to file on time, but it sounded like one might (depending upon eligibility?) then not have to pay (if you do owe) the amount due for 90 days without incurring interest and/or penalties?

I'd advise anyone to check with either your (if you have one) tax preparer and/or the IRS website (might not be up to date yet as far as I can see?).  And also check with your state to see if they are offering any breaks too.

Hard to keep up with all of the news and ideas at the moment!  No criticism meant too Karl.  I'm struggling at this end to follow all of the news, possible breaks, economic stimuli, etc.!

Confused at this end,

PD

It's all confusing, and all that you'ved said, taken in good part, P.D.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 17, 2020, 03:24:20 PM
Last of the 50 states to do so, W. Virginia confirms its first case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 17, 2020, 03:31:13 PM
Pardon, but I'm not quite certain if your comment is totally accurate Karl.  One article that I looked at on a news website said that one still needed to file on time, but it sounded like one might (depending upon eligibility?) then not have to pay (if you do owe) the amount due for 90 days without incurring interest and/or penalties?

I'd advise anyone to check with either your (if you have one) tax preparer and/or the IRS website (might not be up to date yet as far as I can see?).  And also check with your state to see if they are offering any breaks too.

Hard to keep up with all of the news and ideas at the moment!  No criticism meant too Karl.  I'm struggling at this end to follow all of the news, possible breaks, economic stimuli, etc.!

Confused at this end,

PD
According to this, we still have to file by 4/15, but that might be changed.
https://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/tax-compliance/news/21129660/2020-tax-season-payment-deadline-extended-to-july-15-as-nation-fights-coronavirus-irs-news
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 17, 2020, 03:38:21 PM
According to this, we still have to file by 4/15, but that might be changed.
https://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/tax-compliance/news/21129660/2020-tax-season-payment-deadline-extended-to-july-15-as-nation-fights-coronavirus-irs-news
Thanks JBS.  Must keep quite (even more so) informed and up-to-date these days!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 17, 2020, 03:45:33 PM
Finland started to take political actions this week and it feels like we are at war against Corona. I'm nervous for my dad, 81 who is alone home avoiding all social contacts. I don't care about US politics right now. I have enough problems in my life. I feel my "quota" is full. I concentrate on my own well-being now. Sure, Finland is a well-functioning society with good infrastructure to deal with problems like this, but it's serious nevertheless. Just week ago my life was quite normal. Now I am planning my grocery store visits to minimaze interactions with other people... ...so I have no energy and interest to follow "latest polls" in primary states etc. stuff.

Fuck China for creating this mess!


That's not very different from what is going on here, and many other places. May you and your father stay safe and healthy.

Among other things the panic buyers in my area have all bought up is laundry detergent.  I have told the German word for panic buying like that is Hamsterkauf. I hope it is, because it is so fitting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 17, 2020, 03:56:30 PM
Heh.

Coronavirus scare: When will 'hamsterkauf' become an English word? (https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-scare-when-will-hamsterkauf-become-an-english-word/a-52635400)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 17, 2020, 04:07:35 PM
That's not very different from what is going on here, and many other places. May you and your father stay safe and healthy.

Among other things the panic buyers in my area have all bought up is laundry detergent.  I have told the German word for panic buying like that is Hamsterkauf. I hope it is, because it is so fitting.
I noticed that a week ago or so too!  I was perplexed at first.  I told one of the employees there that I was surprised and he mentioned that people were trying to avoid coming in to shop so often; I replied that I was just getting very low on detergent.   :(  I have since managed to acquire some more.

And I like that German term!  Very appropriate!   ;D

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 17, 2020, 04:11:42 PM
Finland started to take political actions this week and it feels like we are at war against Corona. I'm nervous for my dad, 81 who is alone home avoiding all social contacts....

I wish all of the best for you, your family, friends, and country.  We're all facing uncharted waters and it's scary; you're not alone.

Best wishes,

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: mc ukrneal on March 17, 2020, 04:19:12 PM
That's not very different from what is going on here, and many other places. May you and your father stay safe and healthy.

Among other things the panic buyers in my area have all bought up is laundry detergent.  I have told the German word for panic buying like that is Hamsterkauf. I hope it is, because it is so fitting.
I saw that yesterday morning too, but then I've seen some on the shelves yesterday afternoon and today. So maybe just slow to put more back. What is really a problem is getting meat. They sell out of chicken within an hour of putting it out. Though, they did still have ground meat. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 17, 2020, 04:37:15 PM
     I'm doing nothing as hard as I can. Ordinarily I do it effortlessly.

     
I don't care about US politics right now. I have enough problems in my life.

     That's disappointing. I hope you come back with a sword in your hand. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/smiley.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 17, 2020, 04:53:44 PM
First case in the city:

Coronavirus in NZ: Tourist faces deportation after arriving in Christchurch without self-isolation plans (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12317501)

"A tourist who arrived in New Zealand yesterday is being deported after officials found she had no clear plans to self-isolate amid escalating coronavirus fears.

The woman checked in to Rucksacker backpackers hostel in Christchurch last night wearing a face mask.

She did not show any flu symptoms nor had she mixed with other hostel residents, it's understood.

The hostel manager, who asked not to be named, said the woman, who was apparently travelling on her own for a fortnight trip and had a pre-existing booking, was checked in to a private room.

But this morning, Ministry of Health officials arrived at the hostel to question the woman about her self-isolation plans, before police officers showed up to take her away.

"She was a little bit stressed out but she wasn't creating a scene or anything," the hostel manager told the Herald.

"I got told that she was being taken to be put on a plane."

The manager was told by officials that the woman's self-isolation plans were not thorough enough for her to stay in the country.

The manager did not know what country she had arrived from or where she was being sent to.

"I don't think she would have contaminated anybody but I guess it's just a precaution," she said.

"It was a very eventful morning. It's a quiet wee hostel, we don't really get things like this happening. [The other guests] were fine, they were just curious as to what was going on. No-one was panicky or anything."

Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield confirmed the plan to deport the woman at his daily press conference - and said spot checks on other travellers would start from today.

"There was a traveller who came in yesterday ... who was unwilling to commit to self-isolating for the two-week period, and said her intention was to continue with her travels," he said.

"That person has been found and still appears to be unwilling. So the intention is therefore to deport that person."

Bloomfield said the case was unique so far.

"There has been the odd person who has come through and perhaps expressed the view they weren't going to self-isolate, and they've been spoken to and convinced that it is the right thing to do.


"We are also starting, from today, the spot checks on people who are self-isolating, just to help reassure us and other New Zealanders that people are doing the right thing."

Bloomfield said he had some sympathy for travellers whose plans to see Aotearoa were upended, but the restrictions were vital.

"I can understand why someone who might have planned a trip for a long time - two weeks to New Zealand - might be disappointed to arrive and find, right at the 11th hour, that they can't travel around the country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: 71 dB on March 17, 2020, 05:31:48 PM
That's not very different from what is going on here, and many other places. May you and your father stay safe and healthy.

Thanks. I wish the same to you.

Among other things the panic buyers in my area have all bought up is laundry detergent.  I have told the German word for panic buying like that is Hamsterkauf. I hope it is, because it is so fitting.

https://qz.com/

There are even empty supermarket shelves in Germany amid the coronavirus outbreak, and of course there’s a good German word to describe the act of panic hoarding.

The word Hamsterkauf, a noun made up of “hoarding” (hamstern) and “buy” (kaufen) has been trending on social media as people share photos of store shelves cleared out of food and other household items. The word “hamstern” comes from the hamster, which stores food in its cheeks.


We have the word "hamstrata" / "hamstraus" in Finnish language meaning "to hoard" / "hoarding."
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 17, 2020, 05:41:00 PM
Thanks. I wish the same to you.

https://qz.com/ (https://qz.com/)

There are even empty supermarket shelves in Germany amid the coronavirus outbreak, and of course there’s a good German word to describe the act of panic hoarding.

The word Hamsterkauf, a noun made up of “hoarding” (hamstern) and “buy” (kaufen) has been trending on social media as people share photos of store shelves cleared out of food and other household items. The word “hamstern” comes from the hamster, which stores food in its cheeks.


We have the word "hamstrata" / "hamstraus" in Finnish language meaning "to hoard" / "hoarding."


Best wishes, Poju!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 17, 2020, 05:53:32 PM
5 States Have Postponed Their Primaries Because Of The Coronavirus (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/5-states-have-postponed-their-primaries-because-of-the-coronavirus/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mirror Image on March 17, 2020, 05:56:15 PM
Finland started to take political actions this week and it feels like we are at war against Corona. I'm nervous for my dad, 81 who is alone home avoiding all social contacts. I don't care about US politics right now. I have enough problems in my life. I feel my "quota" is full. I concentrate on my own well-being now. Sure, Finland is a well-functioning society with good infrastructure to deal with problems like this, but it's serious nevertheless. Just week ago my life was quite normal. Now I am planning my grocery store visits to minimaze interactions with other people... ...so I have no energy and interest to follow "latest polls" in primary states etc. stuff.

Fuck China for creating this mess!


I can certainly understand the feeling. I do hope things will be on the upswing. All the best to you and your loved ones, Poju.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: mc ukrneal on March 17, 2020, 07:05:33 PM
Here is another explanation for the psychology of resisting social/physical distancing (I agree with the article -  I dislike the term social distancing):
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/crowded-bars-and-theme-parks-why-won-t-some-people-practice-social-distancing-during-coronavirus-outbreak/ar-BB11hsfy?ocid=msedgntp
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Holden on March 17, 2020, 07:13:42 PM
Things have continued  to develop here in Australia.

This morning the PM and his chief health officer told the public that schools would not be closing which is very sensible given that a school is, in effect, a contained environment as opposed to being out in the public arena. The crowd limit is now 500 (outside) and 100 (inside) for non-essential gatherings. Essential gatherings include schools, shopping centres, hospitals, etc.

He also took a swipe at the 'hoarders' describing it as unAustralian! He has also told Aussies not to travel overseas. Anyone entering Australia is required to go into immediate 14 day self-isolation or be deported.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: 71 dB on March 17, 2020, 07:14:55 PM
I wish all of the best for you, your family, friends, and country.  We're all facing uncharted waters and it's scary; you're not alone.

Best wishes,

PD

Thanks!  0:)

          That's disappointing. I hope you come back with a sword in your hand. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/smiley.gif)

I really believed in Bernie's changes and before the establishment got behind Biden things looked good. Fighting the whole establishment was too much. Money won again. people and the planet lost again. Progressives are TOTALLY demoralized by this. We don't see hope at all. The establishment just has almost all the power in the oligarchy. I don't know what to do. That's why I concentrate on my own life.

Best wishes, Poju!

Thanks!  0:)

I can certainly understand the feeling. I do hope things will be on the upswing. All the best to you and your loved ones, Poju.

Thanks!  0:)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 17, 2020, 07:29:58 PM

     NYC has 100 new cases in the last few hours. Earlier today they had 2 deaths, now it's 10.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mirror Image on March 17, 2020, 07:39:35 PM
     NYC has 100 new cases in the last few hours. Earlier today they had 2 deaths, now it's 10.

But what are the ages of the people who have died?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 17, 2020, 08:18:34 PM

     
But what are the ages of the people who have died?

     That's all I know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mirror Image on March 17, 2020, 08:19:45 PM
     
     That's all I know.

Age is something that should be reported on as this is a part of the statistics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 17, 2020, 11:00:16 PM
Finland started to take political actions this week and it feels like we are at war against Corona. I'm nervous for my dad, 81 who is alone home avoiding all social contacts. I don't care about US politics right now. I have enough problems in my life. I feel my "quota" is full. I concentrate on my own well-being now. Sure, Finland is a well-functioning society with good infrastructure to deal with problems like this, but it's serious nevertheless. Just week ago my life was quite normal. Now I am planning my grocery store visits to minimaze interactions with other people... ...so I have no energy and interest to follow "latest polls" in primary states etc. stuff.

Fuck China for creating this mess!


I hope that you and your dad remains safe and well. I'm sure that Finland will deal,with this crisis as effectively as anywhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Crudblud on March 18, 2020, 02:17:25 AM
Thanks to all who sent wishes for swift recovery earlier in the thread. My cough is not as bad today, but definitely still there. My temperature remains normal, my hands remain clean, though I must admit the paranoid new rate of handwashing is taking its toll on my eczema—now there's an underlying condition they didn't label "at risk"!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 18, 2020, 05:22:39 AM

     This is from May, 2018:

     Top White House official in charge of pandemic response exits abruptly (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/05/10/top-white-house-official-in-charge-of-pandemic-response-exits-abruptly/)

The top White House official responsible for leading the U.S. response in the event of a deadly pandemic has left the administration, and the global health security team he oversaw has been disbanded under a reorganization by national security adviser John Bolton.

The abrupt departure of Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer from the National Security Council means no senior administration official is now focused solely on global health security. Ziemer’s departure, along with the breakup of his team, comes at a time when many experts say the country is already underprepared for the increasing risks of a pandemic or bioterrorism attack.


     
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Irons on March 18, 2020, 08:02:47 AM
Age is something that should be reported on as this is a part of the statistics.

Please God, I don't want to be a statistic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: T. D. on March 18, 2020, 08:16:02 AM
     This is from May, 2018:

     Top White House official in charge of pandemic response exits abruptly (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/05/10/top-white-house-official-in-charge-of-pandemic-response-exits-abruptly/)

The top White House official responsible for leading the U.S. response in the event of a deadly pandemic has left the administration, and the global health security team he oversaw has been disbanded under a reorganization by national security adviser John Bolton.

The abrupt departure of Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer from the National Security Council means no senior administration official is now focused solely on global health security. Ziemer’s departure, along with the breakup of his team, comes at a time when many experts say the country is already underprepared for the increasing risks of a pandemic or bioterrorism attack.


   

This was reported and publicly revisited several days ago. Bolton dismissed it as raving by "the angry left".
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 18, 2020, 08:53:39 AM
    Seth Rogen Gets High and Live Tweets ‘Cats’ So We Don’t Have To (https://www.thedailybeast.com/seth-rogen-gets-high-and-live-tweets-cats-so-we-dont-have-to?source=articles&via=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+thedailybeast%2Farticles+%28The+Daily+Beast+-+Latest+Articles%29)

     Yeah, baby! (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/smiley.gif)

This was reported and publicly revisited several days ago. Bolton dismissed it as raving by "the angry left".

     Yes, there was an article by a Trump official claiming no such thing happened in a kind of nondenial denial way, just people being reassigned, consolidation, cost cutting, so on. That's a diversion posing as a refutation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Ratliff on March 18, 2020, 09:37:52 AM
The one bit of reassuring news I see is the new infections in China has dropped dramatically, essentially to nil, and that the authorities are comfortable enough to remove the general lockdown that has been in effect. "Social distancing" is still practiced.

This suggests it is within the realm of possibility to contain this, albeit by implementing draconian measures.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 18, 2020, 09:49:06 AM
The one bit of reassuring news I see is the new infections in China has dropped dramatically, essentially to nil, and that the authorities are comfortable enough to remove the general lockdown that has been in effect. "Social distancing" is still practiced.

This suggests it is within the realm of possibility to contain this, albeit by implementing draconian measures.


And the Chinese people have, in a sense, the advantage of us, as they have more experience of draconian measures. Something which, no, I do not envy them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 18, 2020, 11:11:14 AM
All UK schools closing on Friday but provision is being made for vulnerable children and the children of health workers to stay on. I'm going to have to deliver my lessons by remote access which I'm not looking forward to. I still think that the government, which I do not generally support, were right to keep the schools open as long as possible and I'm glad that there is increasing awareness of the plight of children from abusive homes. Schools may still provide meals for vulnerable children. All public examinations are cancelled. I told my young History class today to be aware, as historians, of the significance of the historical time, worrying though it is, that they are living through.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51952314
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 18, 2020, 11:15:14 AM
And the Chinese people have, in a sense, the advantage of us, as they have more experience of draconian measures. Something which, no, I do not envy them.

 :laugh: :laugh: :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Daverz on March 18, 2020, 11:19:08 AM
Age is something that should be reported on as this is a part of the statistics.

Why?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 18, 2020, 11:19:48 AM
All UK schools closing on Friday but provision is being made for vulnerable children and the children of health workers to stay on. I'm going to have to deliver my lessons by remote access which I'm not looking forward to. I still think that the government, which I do not generally support, were right to keep the schools open as long as possible and I'm glad that there is increasing awareness of the plight of children from abusive homes. Schools may still provide meals for vulnerable children. All public examinations are cancelled. I told my young History class today to be aware, as historians, of the significance of the historical time, worrying though it is, that they are living through.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51952314

Who will look after the kids being provided for?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: T. D. on March 18, 2020, 01:58:20 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/virus-pandemic-exercise-got-one-thing-wrong-the-u-s-response (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/virus-pandemic-exercise-got-one-thing-wrong-the-u-s-response)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 18, 2020, 01:59:07 PM
There may be an obvious answer to this and if so, I'm sorry. Can someone explain to me why the number of cases peaks? I mean, why is the graph a sombrero?  Why doesn't it go on until heard immunity is reached?

Is it because of its expected behaviour in Summer weather? Or is it just because of social distancing? Or because of heard immunity? Or what?

And why will there be subsequent cycles?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 18, 2020, 02:04:03 PM
Another question. Why will closing schools slow the spread of the virus? I just don't understand, I think I must be missing something obvious. Is it to do with protecting teachers?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Irons on March 18, 2020, 02:36:11 PM
Italy in particular is suffering. The latest figures of deaths is shocking in the extreme.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Irons on March 18, 2020, 02:42:12 PM
Another question. Why will closing schools slow the spread of the virus? I just don't understand, I think I must be missing something obvious. Is it to do with protecting teachers?

I believe children are super-spreaders of the virus although they are not ill themselves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 18, 2020, 02:45:02 PM
Who will look after the kids being provided for?

Maybe in the maintained sector the Local Authority will provide food vouchers etc for children who, through poverty, were entitled to free school meals in term-time.

On a separate note I'm suspicious that the government will abuse the emergency powers which they are about to initiate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 18, 2020, 03:00:20 PM
All UK schools closing on Friday but provision is being made for vulnerable children and the children of health workers to stay on. I'm going to have to deliver my lessons by remote access which I'm not looking forward to. I still think that the government, which I do not generally support, were right to keep the schools open as long as possible and I'm glad that there is increasing awareness of the plight of children from abusive homes. Schools may still provide meals for vulnerable children. All public examinations are cancelled. I told my young History class today to be aware, as historians, of the significance of the historical time, worrying though it is, that they are living through.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51952314
Scary and confusing times, I know.  I suspect that you've probably already done a bit of thinking on how you might (if needed) conduct online classes....and perhaps have had a talk with your feline?

On the news lately, images and today some interviews with college kids partying on the beaches of Florida, etc.  It's sinking in to a few of them, but me thinks too little too late!   :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 18, 2020, 03:03:20 PM
Scary and confusing times, I know.  I suspect that you've probably already done a bit of thinking on how you might (if needed) conduct online classes....and perhaps have had a talk with your feline?

On the news lately, images and today some interviews with college kids partying on the beaches of Florida, etc.  It's sinking in to a few of them, but me thinks too little too late!   :(

I expect that our cat Oliver will play a starring role during the online lessons as he enjoys walking all over the computer keyboard or lying down on it whenever I need to use it!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 18, 2020, 03:17:32 PM
I expect that our cat Oliver will play a starring role during the online lessons as he enjoys walking all over the computer keyboard or lying down on it whenever I need to use it!
So, no banishment (during classes) then?  Perhaps he could help to provide some needed levity/tension-relief?  After all, laughter is the best medicine.   ;)

Good luck and let us know how it goes.

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 18, 2020, 04:01:31 PM
There may be an obvious answer to this and if so, I'm sorry. Can someone explain to me why the number of cases peaks? I mean, why is the graph a sombrero?  Why doesn't it go on until heard immunity is reached?


It will, but the number of immune people becomes larger as they have had the infection, and at some point this will result in slower spreading of the virus, and the fewer new cases will appear. Therefore the number of infected people will decrease with time. But if an efficient vaccine isn't found, we will all get the infection eventually.

Quote from: Mandryka
Is it because of its expected behaviour in Summer weather? Or is it just because of social distancing? Or because of heard immunity? Or what?

And why will there be subsequent cycles?

The belief is, that the virus will spread much slower in the summer, first and foremost due to more ultraviolet radiation from the sun, but this will stop again in the winter. It is the same with epidemics of influenza.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 18, 2020, 04:02:45 PM
Italy in particular is suffering. The latest figures of deaths is shocking in the extreme.

Horrible!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 18, 2020, 04:04:30 PM
Another question. Why will closing schools slow the spread of the virus? I just don't understand, I think I must be missing something obvious. Is it to do with protecting teachers?

Children may spread the disease mutually without having many or any symptoms at all, and then they have contact with their parents and grand parents, which may contract the disease from the children.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 18, 2020, 04:10:27 PM
I’m not sure if this has been posted, but it’s a fascinating article - with « living graph » simulations. It explains how a spreading virus reacts to containment measures such as quarantine, social distancing.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 18, 2020, 05:01:33 PM
I’m not sure if this has been posted, but it’s a fascinating article - with « living graph » simulations. It explains how a spreading virus reacts to containment measures such as quarantine, social distancing.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/)

As opposed to:

A Boston doctor and five friends went to Miami. All six came back sick, at least four with the coronavirus. (https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/19/nation/boston-doctor-five-friends-went-miami-all-six-came-back-sick-least-four-with-coronavirus/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: mc ukrneal on March 18, 2020, 05:09:06 PM
I’m not sure if this has been posted, but it’s a fascinating article - with « living graph » simulations. It explains how a spreading virus reacts to containment measures such as quarantine, social distancing.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/)
You beat me by just a few minutes. It's very helpful in explaining the basis behind it...
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 18, 2020, 06:42:29 PM

     Testing has ramped up in NYC so the numbered of confirmed cases is over 1,871 from 813 yesterday. I expect we'll see similar jumps in hot spots around the country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: greg on March 18, 2020, 09:26:27 PM
Probably mentioned already, but looks like China and South Korea have already flattened the curve.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/


In the US the curve is going upward still, so probably the same pattern will exist for every country to where their curves will flatten later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 18, 2020, 09:59:09 PM
I believe children are super-spreaders of the virus although they are not ill themselves.

But they’ve already spread it to the adults they have contact with, parents and teachers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 18, 2020, 10:02:27 PM
Probably mentioned already, but looks like China and South Korea have already flattened the curve.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/


In the US the curve is going upward still, so probably the same pattern will exist for every country to where their curves will flatten later.

They’ve flattened the curve by isolating people, presumably if they let social contacts return to normal, the curve will take off again. There isn’t as yet critical levels of immunity in the population.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 18, 2020, 10:43:26 PM
So, no banishment (during classes) then?  Perhaps he could help to provide some needed levity/tension-relief?  After all, laughter is the best medicine.   ;)

Good luck and let us know how it goes.

PD

Thank you PD.
Although as a technophobe I'm not looking forward to it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Holden on March 18, 2020, 11:11:09 PM
Thank you PD.
Although as a technophobe I'm not looking forward to it.

I'm assuming that your school has a Learning Management System (LMS) and this is how they will remotely deliver the program. Our LMS is set up at the beginning of the school year with the whole program already there. It means that staff, students and parents can access it. It includes lessons, assessment, communications and the ability to submit work electronically.

I've been asked to set up work for the students in a specific year level on a week by week basis, just in case the Government decides we should close. All I had to do was create a small vodcast showing students what they had to do by pointing to the parts of the system where they could get the already set up programs.

If your school doesn't have an LMS then yes, you might easily have a tech nightmare.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: XB-70 Valkyrie on March 19, 2020, 12:01:39 AM
Our LMS is Blackboard, and although aspects of it are wonky as hell, I will never go back to the old way of doing things. For one thing, I put all my exams online, so exam day is holiday for me. The old me used to deal with stupid scantrons and paper exams. I see the old dinosaurs still using these methods and i can see why--it is often so much easier to go on doing the familiar thing rather than climbing the steep learning curve, even though it will save you vast time and trouble later on.

A couple of years ago I taught my first online class (Bio for nonmajors), and last semester, I got stuck with the in-person version, so I flipped it and used the video lectures I recorded before. It was a great success; I received the best student evals ever. Also it is much, much easier and more enjoyable for me!

Now, I am teaching core curriculum and upper division (I have a fkn Ph.D. for chrissakes), and I am recording video lectures for these as well out of necessity! We were ordered to transition to fully online last week. Fortunately, our institution is pretty good to faculty and they told us not to kill ourselves trying to teach everything we normally would--"We are in triage" said one dean. It is time-consuming--Every 20 minute lecture takes about 1.5 hours from recording, editing, exporting as MP4, uploading to YouTube, etc.

The way I see it, every thing you learn and do in the realm of online education will save you time and energy (and commuting!!) later on...
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: XB-70 Valkyrie on March 19, 2020, 12:10:50 AM
A ballad for the end of time:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvQyvrnBcgI
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 19, 2020, 12:59:05 AM
A Dutch newspaper reported that Italian virologist (Roberto Burioni) reacted very critical to the Dutch 'group immunity' thinking. "It is a very big risk that the Dutch government is taking. We do not yet know whether immunity to this virus can occur. That's still unknown. In addition, there is no vaccine yet."

Despite that, the Dutch National Institute for Public Health has not changed its mind about it.

Interesting, to say the least. 

(Also for the UK, because, iirc, they decided to do more or less the same as the Dutch.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Irons on March 19, 2020, 12:59:56 AM
But they’ve already spread it to the adults they have contact with, parents and teachers.

True, and grandparents who will look after them while their parents (hopefully) at work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Irons on March 19, 2020, 01:19:06 AM
Clutching at straws, but a report in newspaper this morning that treatment for malaria may have some affect.

"Despite the grim figures, some scientists are optimistic. An eminent French doctor from Insitut Hospitalo-Universitaire in Marseilles claimed a drug used for malaria could stop the virus being contagious in just six days.
Professor Didier Raoult said a group of 24 patients who were given chloroquine experienced a rapid speeding up of their healing process as wellas the time they remained contagious.
Professor Robin May, an expert in infectious disease at Birmingham University said "Since it has a long history of clinical use, the safety profile of chloroquine is well established and is cheap and relatively easy to manufacture".
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 19, 2020, 01:20:57 AM
They’ve flattened the curve by isolating people, presumably if they let social contacts return to normal, the curve will take off again. There isn’t as yet critical levels of immunity in the population.

Yes, and that's why these measures will be necessary for several months and maybe again next winter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 19, 2020, 01:25:24 AM
I believe children are super-spreaders of the virus although they are not ill themselves.

Well, they are in a way ill, so far that they have got the infection, but it runs a mild and perhaps completely asymptomatic course,
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Spineur on March 19, 2020, 01:59:36 AM
Clutching at straws, but a report in newspaper this morning that treatment for malaria may have some affect.

"Despite the grim figures, some scientists are optimistic. An eminent French doctor from Insitut Hospitalo-Universitaire in Marseilles claimed a drug used for malaria could stop the virus being contagious in just six days.
Professor Didier Raoult said a group of 24 patients who were given chloroquine experienced a rapid speeding up of their healing process as wellas the time they remained contagious.
Professor Robin May, an expert in infectious disease at Birmingham University said "Since it has a long history of clinical use, the safety profile of chloroquine is well established and is cheap and relatively easy to manufacture".


At first, this treatment using hydrochloroquine was met with some scepticism by experts, as they could not see how this molecule could affect any virus.  Indeed it does not act directly on it, but it opens a channel for Zn^2+ ions to get into the cell.  The Zn^2+ then blocks the replication of the virus. This is why this treatment requires a second drug for the Zn^2+ release.  This is all explained in this video

https://www.youtube.com/v/U7F1cnWup9M

South Corea used paquenil (Sanofi trademark for hydrochlorine), one of the reason why their deathrate is lower.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: XB-70 Valkyrie on March 19, 2020, 02:03:45 AM
Raoult is definitely someone worth taking seriously, certainly no crackpot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 19, 2020, 02:35:38 AM
Yes, and that's why these measures will be necessary for several months and maybe again next winter.

The positive thing, as far as I can see, is that the complications which cause death are mostly handleable with the right equipment. Of course, some people die with intensive care, but I’m sure I’ve read that most get through, even those with preexisting conditions. The immediate problem is that there aren’t  enough respirators and other, more advanced, apparatus, not enough intensive care beds.

What I’m leading to is this. Vaccine or no, heard immunity or no, by next winter, there must be a way of manufacturing enough of the required pieces of equipment. When the second wave lets rip, it should be far less fatal, our reaction should be far less chaotic.

Take care, Poul, there’s still a load of music to be explored! We need you here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 19, 2020, 04:39:38 AM
The positive thing, as far as I can see, is that the complications which cause death are mostly handleable with the right equipment. Of course, some people die with intensive care, but I’m sure I’ve read that most get through, even those with preexisting conditions. The immediate problem is that there aren’t  enough respirators and other, more advanced, apparatus, not enough intensive care beds.

What I’m leading to is this. Vaccine or no, heard immunity or no, by next winter, there must be a way of manufacturing enough of the required pieces of equipment. When the second wave lets rip, it should be far less fatal, our reaction should be far less chaotic.

Take care, Poul, there’s still a load of music to be explored! We need you here.

Thanks for your kind and encouraging words Howard. I am very cautious at the moment, and don't go out other than for shopping food - and always keeping distance. The only person with whom I am in close contact is my wife. I do not even see my two sons now.

Hopefully you also take care and avoid any unnecessary contact with other people. You are also needed here.

Only the future will show how long this situation is going to continue, but it provides ample opportunity to listen to lots of music and read the books that have been waiting to be read since long.  :)

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 19, 2020, 04:59:02 AM
Thank you PD.
Although as a technophobe I'm not looking forward to it.
What kind of technical support do you have from your school in terms of training?  And/or perhaps some of the gents on hear who have done it in the past might be able to help you?

You can do it Jeffrey!  We have faith in you!   :)

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: aligreto on March 19, 2020, 06:03:26 AM
So, no banishment (during classes) then?  Perhaps he could help to provide some needed levity/tension-relief?  After all, laughter is the best medicine.   ;)

Good luck and let us know how it goes.

PD


As you may or may not know, we Irish have a somewhat peculiar sense of humour. We use it to lighten our load in times of crises.

With great respect to my UK friends and neighbours, one joke going around here at the moment goes like this:

there are five people on an endangered aeroplane with only four parachutes. Those people are Trump, the Pope, Boris Johnson, Leo Varadkar [Irish Prime Minister] and a 9 year old boy. Trump grabs the first parachute saying I am too important, I need to save America and then jumps. The Pope declares that he is needed to save the Catholic Church, grabs another one and jumps. Boris declares that he is also very much needed, is the most intelligent man in the UK, grabs another one and jumps. Leo turns to the young boy and says I am a lot older than you, I have lived a good life so you take the last one. The young boy answers that it is OK, there are still two parachutes left as the most intelligent man in the UK has just grabbed my schoolbag.

You see, we Irish are no respecters of authority or reputation.  ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 19, 2020, 06:04:45 AM
Thanks for your kind and encouraging words Howard. I am very cautious at the moment, and don't go out other than for shopping food - and always keeping distance. The only person with whom I am in close contact is my wife. I do not even see my two sons now.

Warm thoughts!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Rinaldo on March 19, 2020, 06:13:26 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/finSEaS.jpg)

Via FT (https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 19, 2020, 06:28:22 AM

As you may or may not know, we Irish have a somewhat peculiar sense of humour. We use it to lighten our load in times of crises.

With great respect to my UK friends and neighbours, one joke going around here at the moment goes like this:

there are five people on an endangered aeroplane with only four parachutes. Those people are Trump, the Pope, Boris Johnson, Leo Varadkar [Irish Prime Minister] and a 9 year old boy. Trump grabs the first parachute saying I am too important, I need to save America and then jumps. The Pope declares that he is needed to save the Catholic Church, grabs another one and jumps. Boris declares that he is also very much needed, is the most intelligent man in the UK, grabs another one and jumps. Leo turns to the young boy and says I am a lot older than you, I have lived a good life so you take the last one. The young boy answers that it is OK, there are still two parachutes left as the most intelligent man in the UK has just grabbed my schoolbag.

You see, we Irish are no respecters of authority or reputation.  ;D
Thank you for making me laugh!   ;) :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: aligreto on March 19, 2020, 06:31:56 AM
Thank you for making me laugh!   ;) :)

We can be respectfully disrespectful  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 19, 2020, 06:33:22 AM
Warm thoughts!

Warm thoughts to you too, Karl!

Be careful and cautious these days,
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 19, 2020, 07:26:12 AM

     Scumbag Sec. Pompeo is intensifying sanctions on Iran as the death toll mounts. Putting ethics on the back burner for a minute, how is this smart? Now put it on the front burner (I'll allow that). Why should we race the mullahs to be the most evil?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: greg on March 19, 2020, 07:58:22 AM
So yeah... this might be why it's so bad in Italy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mNMdg4morQs

This channel is sponsored by the Chinese government. If that guy had a virus then seems to be a deliberate attempt of murdering Europeans by using their own political correctness against them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 19, 2020, 08:07:14 AM

As you may or may not know, we Irish have a somewhat peculiar sense of humour. We use it to lighten our load in times of crises.

With great respect to my UK friends and neighbours, one joke going around here at the moment goes like this:

there are five people on an endangered aeroplane with only four parachutes. Those people are Trump, the Pope, Boris Johnson, Leo Varadkar [Irish Prime Minister] and a 9 year old boy. Trump grabs the first parachute saying I am too important, I need to save America and then jumps. The Pope declares that he is needed to save the Catholic Church, grabs another one and jumps. Boris declares that he is also very much needed, is the most intelligent man in the UK, grabs another one and jumps. Leo turns to the young boy and says I am a lot older than you, I have lived a good life so you take the last one. The young boy answers that it is OK, there are still two parachutes left as the most intelligent man in the UK has just grabbed my schoolbag.

You see, we Irish are no respecters of authority or reputation.  ;D


A nice variant on a joke I've been told before; thanks!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: aligreto on March 19, 2020, 08:53:14 AM
A nice variant on a joke I've been told before; thanks!

A Universal Truth   ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Daverz on March 19, 2020, 09:14:01 AM
So yeah... this might be why it's so bad in Italy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mNMdg4morQs

This channel is sponsored by the Chinese government. If that guy had a virus then seems to be a deliberate attempt of murdering Europeans by using their own political correctness against them.

People are legitimately anxious about this pandemic, but for you it's just an opportunity for some childish race-baiting?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: 71 dB on March 19, 2020, 09:28:47 AM
I hope that you and your dad remains safe and well. I'm sure that Finland will deal,with this crisis as effectively as anywhere.

Thanks! I understand UK is taking more serious actions with this. Be safe yourself!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: greg on March 19, 2020, 09:41:40 AM
People are legitimately anxious about this pandemic, but for you it's just an opportunity for some childish race-baiting?
What?  ???
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 19, 2020, 10:45:44 AM
A Universal Truth   ;D

Verily, verily.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 19, 2020, 10:58:24 AM
     I'm following the French lockdown, and the word is that it's likely to be extended beyond 15 days or whatever it is now, initially by another 15 days. Our Paris hotel is shuttered and our contact Laure sent a form letter that casts doubt that it will reopen soon.

We regret to inform you that Chouette Hotel is closed for an indefinite period.

We can respond to your requests as soon as the establishment reopens.

We ask you, Madam, Sir, to accept our apologies for this situation.


     I don't think a trip in May is going to happen.

     OK, off to Air France........

     US and French travel restrictions permitting, I have months of rescheduling room at no additional cost.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 19, 2020, 11:07:34 AM
     I'm following the French lockdown, and the word is that it's likely to be extended beyond 15 days or whatever it is now, initially by another 15 days. Our Paris hotel is shuttered and our contact Laure sent a form letter that casts doubt that it will reopen soon.

We regret to inform you that Chouette Hotel is closed for an indefinite period.

We can respond to your requests as soon as the establishment reopens.

We ask you, Madam, Sir, to accept our apologies for this situation.


     I don't think a trip in May is going to happen.

      OK, off to Air France........
Sorry to hear about your trip; perhaps things will be radically better by then?  Alas, if you're concerned about getting your deposits/refunds back..... :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 19, 2020, 11:23:34 AM
Sorry to hear about your trip; perhaps things will be radically better by then?  Alas, if you're concerned about getting your deposits/refunds back..... :(

     No, I don't want money back, I'm interested in how/when the trip will take place.

     (https://www.parisdise.com/taste/dine_paris/6e/fouet1.jpg)

     
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 19, 2020, 11:26:59 AM
     No, I don't want money back, I'm interested in how/when the trip will take place.

     (https://www.parisdise.com/taste/dine_paris/6e/fouet1.jpg)

   
Can you change your reservations without incurring lots of big penalties?  Like for the plane tickets?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 19, 2020, 11:47:13 AM

As you may or may not know, we Irish have a somewhat peculiar sense of humour. We use it to lighten our load in times of crises.

With great respect to my UK friends and neighbours, one joke going around here at the moment goes like this:

there are five people on an endangered aeroplane with only four parachutes. Those people are Trump, the Pope, Boris Johnson, Leo Varadkar [Irish Prime Minister] and a 9 year old boy. Trump grabs the first parachute saying I am too important, I need to save America and then jumps. The Pope declares that he is needed to save the Catholic Church, grabs another one and jumps. Boris declares that he is also very much needed, is the most intelligent man in the UK, grabs another one and jumps. Leo turns to the young boy and says I am a lot older than you, I have lived a good life so you take the last one. The young boy answers that it is OK, there are still two parachutes left as the most intelligent man in the UK has just grabbed my schoolbag.

You see, we Irish are no respecters of authority or reputation.  ;D
Haha. That's very funny Fergus and made me smile.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 19, 2020, 11:50:03 AM


Can you change your reservations without incurring lots of big penalties?  Like for the plane tickets?

     (https://i.ytimg.com/vi/t7RuLYs_CYw/maxresdefault.jpg)

     Did you not hear me? We can't give out no information.

     Yes, I can reschedule with no penalty.

   

     
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 19, 2020, 12:00:48 PM
What kind of technical support do you have from your school in terms of training?  And/or perhaps some of the gents on hear who have done it in the past might be able to help you?

You can do it Jeffrey!  We have faith in you!   :)

PD
Thank you PD for your inspiriting and kind words. And thanks to others for comments.
Frankly I regard the whole 'online, virtual-reality lesson' as a total nightmare. It has caused me more stress than the Coronavirus. Like many others, I suspect, I hardly slept last night. Having said that there is a very supportive IT team in the school and they have told me that when I deliver my first online lesson next week I can do it from the school with their support which is very reassuring. I went for two days in a row to the training session after school. What usually happens is that I cannot get into the laptop in the first place and by the time that it finally lets me in the lesson moves on to a place where I no longer understanding anything that is going on and just stare blankly at the screen. For the younger staff, of course, the whole thing is a walk in the park. Anyway, we shall see and thanks for the support and advice which is much appreciated.

To add to all this it it my daughter's birthday on Monday and we have invited her (we live in a quiet village) here to celebrate. However, she insists that we go up to London. She lives in West Dulwich which is one of the worst areas for Coronavirus infection. I explaned to her that this was like being invited for a birthday celebration in one of the main plague villages during the period of The Black Death. This at least amused some of my colleagues at work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 19, 2020, 12:04:16 PM
Thank you PD for your inspiriting and kind words. And thanks to others for comments.
Frankly I regard the whole 'online, virtual-reality lesson' as a total nightmare. It has caused me more stress than the Cronavirus. Like many others, I suspect, I hardly slept last night. Having said that there is a very supportive IT team in the school and they have told me that when I deliver my first online lesson next week I can do it from the school with their support which is very reassuring. I went for two days in a row to the training session after school. What usually happens is that I cannot get into the laptop in the first place and by the time that it finally lets me in the lesson moves on to a place where I no longer understanding anything that is going on and just stare blankly at the screen. For the younger staff, of course, the whole thing is a walk in the park. Anyway, we shall see and thanks for the support and advice which is much appreciated.

To add to all this it it my daughter's birthday on Monday and we have invited her (we live in a quiet village) to celebrate. However, she insists that we go up to London. She lives in West Dulwich which is one of the worst areas for Coronavirus infection. I explaned to her that this was like being invited for a birthday celebration in one of the main plague villages during the period of The Black Death. This at least amused some of my colleagues at work.

Then you definitely need that cat around to keep the students occupied.

Stay healthy and happy birthday to your daughter!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 19, 2020, 12:05:39 PM
Then you definitely need that cat around to keep the students occupied.

Stay healthy and happy birthday to your daughter!

Oh, thanks so much Jeffrey!
Much appreciated  :) :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 19, 2020, 12:37:42 PM
     

     (https://i.imgur.com/y5AX21N.png)

     We've passed the 2,000 new cases a day point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 19, 2020, 12:43:15 PM
From Romania with love, to all GMGers!

Stay safe, obey all rules and restrictions imposed, keep strict hygienic rules and be optimistic! I wish you and all your loved ones and fellow countrymen all best of luck and very good health in these hard times!

As for myself, I'll isolate myself as much as I can together with my 79yo father which I can't leave because he can't move out from his bed and one of my maternal aunts 83yo who lives next door to us. My wife, 7yo son and my inlaws are isolated in a county 2 hours drive away fron Bucharest where no case has been reported as of yet.  As of yet the disease spreads in Romania at a moderate pace and I hope the trend will not going to
explode. The measures taken by the government proves quite effective, the irresponsibility of some people notwithstanding.

I'm sure that we all will get over this bloody crisis! May God and our own civic sense and respobsibility proect us alll!






Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 19, 2020, 12:46:23 PM
From Romania with love, to all GMGers!

Stay safe, obey all rules and restrictions imposed, keep strict hygienic rules and be optimistic! I wish you and all your loved ones and fellow countrymen all best of luck and very good health in these hard times!

As for myself, I'll isolate myself as much as I can together with my 79yo father which I can't leave because he can't move out from his bed and one of my maternal aunts 83yo who lives next door to us. My wife, 7yo son and my inlaws are isolated in a county 2 hours drive away fron Bucharest where no case has been reported as of yet.  As of yet the disease spreads in Romania at a moderate pace and I hope the trend will not going to
explode. The measures taken by the government proves quite effective, the irresponsibility of some people notwithstanding.

I'm sure that we all will get over this bloody crisis! May God and our own civic sense and respobsibility proect us alll!








God bless you & yours, brother!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 19, 2020, 12:53:56 PM
And as someone said above, now is the right time to read those books and listen to those musics it was high time to read and listen to! And more important, to spend more time with our children and parents!  As St. John Apostle said, Love each other and it'll suffice!

I love you all, guys!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: greg on March 19, 2020, 12:59:25 PM
And as someone said above, now is the right time to read those books and listen to those musics it was high time to read and listen to!
Helllll yes.  8)
Turn this into a opportunity.  0:)

Though I do feel bad for the extroverts out there who don't many hobbies at home. Good luck, I guess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 19, 2020, 01:14:58 PM
Also an opportunity for all of us to think about and ponder our own unavoidable mortality and order our priorities in this short life we're alloted.

Carpe diem!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 19, 2020, 02:13:07 PM

     
Also an opportunity for all of us to think about and ponder our own unavoidable mortality and order our priorities in this short life we're alloted.

Carpe diem!

     I'll probably order chicken kee mow with unavoidable sauce.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 19, 2020, 02:15:03 PM
Even when I enjoy them, the sauces I order are always avoidable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 19, 2020, 02:26:54 PM

     We have a very nice delivery option in Watertown, a little Thai place that was all takeout and delivery, then added a few tables, and now is back to the original format until the all clear sounds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 19, 2020, 03:06:00 PM
God bless you & yours, brother!

Amen!
Helllll yes.  8)
Turn this into a opportunity.  0:)

Though I do feel bad for the extroverts out there who don't many hobbies at home. Good luck, I guess.

And prayers and sympathy. I am an extreme introvert, but even for me the growing self isolation is draining. Possibly it's the knowledge of why all this is going on that is depressing.

But people still can go out for a walk, and wave and say hello to each other even if they are strangers and even if it's from six feet away.  And I noticed as I took a walk this evening, that's what all of us seem to be doing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 19, 2020, 03:13:07 PM
Thank you PD for your inspiriting and kind words. And thanks to others for comments.
Frankly I regard the whole 'online, virtual-reality lesson' as a total nightmare. It has caused me more stress than the Coronavirus. Like many others, I suspect, I hardly slept last night. Having said that there is a very supportive IT team in the school and they have told me that when I deliver my first online lesson next week I can do it from the school with their support which is very reassuring. I went for two days in a row to the training session after school. What usually happens is that I cannot get into the laptop in the first place and by the time that it finally lets me in the lesson moves on to a place where I no longer understanding anything that is going on and just stare blankly at the screen. For the younger staff, of course, the whole thing is a walk in the park. Anyway, we shall see and thanks for the support and advice which is much appreciated.

To add to all this it it my daughter's birthday on Monday and we have invited her (we live in a quiet village) here to celebrate. However, she insists that we go up to London. She lives in West Dulwich which is one of the worst areas for Coronavirus infection. I explaned to her that this was like being invited for a birthday celebration in one of the main plague villages during the period of The Black Death. This at least amused some of my colleagues at work.
Oh, boy!  Wonder why that is?  I wouldn't think that there would be that many people trying to access how to host a teaching session?  Or is it a combo of how to host and how also to access the lesson causing the issue...maybe all the students trying to access it too?  If so, I would think that they should have a for teachers' only vs. a student access.  Though perhaps it's just a case of too much activity overall on the school's network?  Good to hear that someone will be with you for your first lesson at least.  Sorry that this has turned into such a complicated mess though.   :(  I know, computers and technology can be frustrating; I hate to think how many hours (days?) I've spent working with someone over the phone trying to either fix things or learn more about the technology so that I know what I'm doing!  It can be rewording though to learn something new...perhaps try and think of it that way when you succeed (and you will).   :)

And, yes, a very happy birthday to your daughter....must admit that I'm rather surprised where she wanted the family to go!  Has she been taking any preventative measures (like trying her best to do 'social distancing', etc.)?

Best wishes and stay as safe as you can,

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: mc ukrneal on March 19, 2020, 06:31:23 PM
I find the whole coronavirus very frustrating, mostly because the communication about it has been so poor (unclear, contradictory, etc.). I finally found an article that explains it quite clearly: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coronavirus-will-radically-alter-the-u-s/ar-BB11pF6k?ocid=msedgntp

We're told that this will last through July/August - but that is only if we have a worst case scenario and everyone gets sick now! The whole timing of it is being misunderstood. If we need to shelter in place for 3-6 months, we are still looking at another major wave in the fall.

This graph shows it with a timeline (the first I've found with a concrete timeline):
(https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BB11pzQu.img?h=1080&w=1920&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f)

SO if they could have a vaccine become live later this year, we could avoid the worst (if the measures they are trying to enforce work). Why isn't every country of the world getting together and pooling resources to get this done asap? We need to be funding research (if that is necessary), making the approvals process as streamlined as possible, getting the trials done in the shortest amount of time possible, getting the production ramped up so that mass quantities can be given round the world as quickly as possible, etc. I know there is one company that just started a trial, and if we are lucky, that will work just as needed. But there is no guarantee. And even if it is 'the one', production will be strained to keep up with worldwide demand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: mc ukrneal on March 19, 2020, 06:54:23 PM
And it looks like we knew how badly we were prepared prior to this outbreak:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/virus-outbreak-cascade-warnings-went-193648556.html

Quote
"The outbreak of the respiratory virus began in China and was quickly spread around the world by air travelers, who ran high fevers. In the United States, it was first detected in Chicago, and 47 days later the World Health Organization declared a pandemic. By then it was too late: 110 million Americans were expected to become ill, leading to 7.7 million hospitalized and 586,000 dead.

That scenario, code-named “Crimson Contagion,” was simulated by the Trump administration’s Department of Health and Human Services in a series of exercises that ran from last January to August.

The simulation’s sobering results — contained in a draft report dated October 2019 that has not previously been reported — drove home just how underfunded, underprepared and uncoordinated the federal government would be for a life-or-death battle with a virus for which no treatment existed."
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Ratliff on March 19, 2020, 07:39:47 PM
If you can believe it was laid off just before Christmas (company financially failing) found a better job, sold the house in California, rented a house in Houston, Texas where I will be working, am on payroll pending relocation. Movers are supposed to come on April 2, My wife and I had planned to drive with our young child to Houston, and did I mention my wife is pregnant?

Now, with confirmed cases growing exponentially in California, the governor has issued a “stay at home order,” and effective next week we have no home. We are wondering if we will find travel forbidden, or travel hotels along the route shuttered.

Being stuck at home, watching Netflix and nervously checking dwindling checking accounts and 401Ks seems like paradise to me. I fully expect I could be dead before a month has past, and that is not the worst scenario I can imagine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: mc ukrneal on March 19, 2020, 07:50:56 PM
If you can believe it was laid off just before Christmas (company financially failing) found a better job, sold the house in California, rented a house in Houston, Texas where I will be working, am on payroll pending relocation. Movers are supposed to come on April 2, My wife and I had planned to drive with our young child to Houston, and did I mention my wife is pregnant?

Now, with confirmed cases growing exponentially in California, the governor has issued a “stay at home order,” and effective next week we have no home. We are wondering if we will find travel forbidden, or travel hotels along the route shuttered.

Being stuck at home, watching Netflix and nervously checking dwindling checking accounts and 401Ks seems like paradise to me. I fully expect I could be dead before a month has past, and that is not the worst scenario I can imagine.
Whoa. I feel for YOU! I can only say that I hope you (and your family) stay safe and healthy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Symphonic Addict on March 19, 2020, 08:22:28 PM
My only contribution to this thread is this: my opinion about this virus is that it was intentionally created and spread. I don't believe that it came from an animal origin by mutation. The real rulers have the worst intentions towards people, and I'm not mentioning presidents or kings. I suppose you can guess who they are.


I really hope all of you stay safe in your respective countries. I wish you all the best including your families.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 19, 2020, 09:38:34 PM
My only contribution to this thread is this: my opinion about this virus is that it was intentionally created and spread. I don't believe that it came from an animal origin by mutation. The real rulers have the worst intentions towards people, and I'm not mentioning presidents or kings. I suppose you can guess who they are.


I really hope all of you stay safe in your respective countries. I wish you all the best including your families.

I can't guess who you're talking about. Or what you might be basing this opinion on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: arpeggio on March 20, 2020, 12:08:45 AM
I had an interesting discussion with my wife concerning the virus.

For over forty years she worked for the United States Government as an IT specialist.  She spent twenty-five years with the Department of the Army and the last fifteen years working for the Department of Justice.  As a senior manager of the Department of Justice she worked on and signed off on plans on how to deal with the outbreak of a virus like Corona.  She knows of plans that were developed by the Department of Defense decades ago in order to deal with such a crisis.  As far as she is concerned any claims by the current administration that we were caught by surprise are completely bogus.  The Trump Administration was more concerned about tax breaks for the wealthy than preparing for a potential pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 20, 2020, 12:48:15 AM
My only contribution to this thread is this: my opinion about this virus is that it was intentionally created and spread. I don't believe that it came from an animal origin by mutation. The real rulers have the worst intentions towards people, and I'm not mentioning presidents or kings. I suppose you can guess who they are.
.

If you are serious, I suggest that you change your username to

"fake news addict".
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: pjme on March 20, 2020, 12:57:14 AM
Josie Golding, PhD, epidemics lead at UK-based Wellcome Trust, said the findings by Andersen and his colleagues are "crucially important to bring an evidence-based view to the rumors that have been circulating about the origins of the virus (SARS-CoV-2) causing COVID-19."

"They conclude that the virus is the product of natural evolution," Goulding adds, "ending any speculation about deliberate genetic engineering."

read more at: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175442.htm
or
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Irons on March 20, 2020, 01:06:17 AM
     I'm following the French lockdown, and the word is that it's likely to be extended beyond 15 days or whatever it is now, initially by another 15 days. Our Paris hotel is shuttered and our contact Laure sent a form letter that casts doubt that it will reopen soon.

We regret to inform you that Chouette Hotel is closed for an indefinite period.

We can respond to your requests as soon as the establishment reopens.

We ask you, Madam, Sir, to accept our apologies for this situation.


     I don't think a trip in May is going to happen.

     OK, off to Air France........

     US and French travel restrictions permitting, I have months of rescheduling room at no additional cost.

My son works for a large company in the travel industry. He had someone on the phone yesterday demanding immediate refund of deposit paid for expensive holiday. It was explained to the client that the company were working through £millions worth of deposits which takes time and eventually his money will be returned. With this my son received a blast  - My business has gone. Today, I sacked a dozen employees and I am ruined - I want my (deleted) money NOW!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: pjme on March 20, 2020, 01:39:13 AM
We won't be able here at GMG to solve all the problems and questions surrounding Covid!
This article explains a few (China related) issues (well, for me, at least) :

"And that’s where China really does have issues. The country’s food safety standards are notoriously bad, despite numerous government-led initiatives to improve them. Food scandals are common, and diarrhea and food poisoning are a distressingly regular experience. Markets, like Huanan, that aren’t licensed for live species nevertheless sell them. Workers are undertrained in basic hygiene techniques like glove-wearing and hand-washing. Dangerous additives are commonly used to increase production.

China’s conditions are not unique. It looks, in fact, a lot like the United States did in the past, before muckraking exposés led to the creation of modern regulation systems. Even today, the United States can lag behind best practices on such issues as antibiotics in feed, cattle slaughter, or poultry washing. And, as with the American public of the 1900s, the Chinese citizenry badly wants change. Seventy-seven percent of the public ranks food safety as their single biggest concern.

As with so much else in China, politics gets in the way of sensible policy. Exposés of the kind that drove reform in the United States have a hard time finding traction in China’s censorious media environment, where the interests of billion-dollar corporations and their party backers often override those of the public. When the author Zhou Qing wrote a groundbreaking exposé, What Kind of God, on the Chinese food industry in 2006, two-thirds of the book was removed before publication and its success eventually forced him into political exile.

Part of China’s problem can be attributed to the power of traditional Chinese medicine, which is responsible for much of the trade in wildlife. Many wild animals in China are killed not for culinary reasons but for essentially magical ones. Whether it’s tiger paws or pangolin scales, quack cures persist on a vast scale—even in cases like bear bile where a real active ingredient existed, has been discovered, and can be produced in labs without animal cruelty. The government has been heavily promoting traditional Chinese medicine, especially under President Xi Jinping’s new nationalism, and while officially pharmaceutical companies following this model eschew the wildlife trade, the propaganda around such traditional medicine in general helps ensure belief survives."
Source:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/27/dont-blame-bat-soup-for-the-wuhan-virus/

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: aligreto on March 20, 2020, 02:42:02 AM
From Romania with love, to all GMGers!

Stay safe, obey all rules and restrictions imposed, keep strict hygienic rules and be optimistic! I wish you and all your loved ones and fellow countrymen all best of luck and very good health in these hard times!

As for myself, I'll isolate myself as much as I can together with my 79yo father which I can't leave because he can't move out from his bed and one of my maternal aunts 83yo who lives next door to us. My wife, 7yo son and my inlaws are isolated in a county 2 hours drive away fron Bucharest where no case has been reported as of yet.  As of yet the disease spreads in Romania at a moderate pace and I hope the trend will not going to
explode. The measures taken by the government proves quite effective, the irresponsibility of some people notwithstanding.

I'm sure that we all will get over this bloody crisis! May God and our own civic sense and respobsibility proect us alll!

Best of luck to you and yours my friend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: aligreto on March 20, 2020, 02:44:16 AM

To add to all this it it my daughter's birthday on Monday and we have invited her (we live in a quiet village) here to celebrate. However, she insists that we go up to London. She lives in West Dulwich which is one of the worst areas for Coronavirus infection. I explaned to her that this was like being invited for a birthday celebration in one of the main plague villages during the period of The Black Death. This at least amused some of my colleagues at work.

Out of concern for you my friend I would say do not go, Jeffrey.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 20, 2020, 02:50:01 AM
Out of concern for you my friend I would say do not go, Jeffrey.

You should stay home, Jeffrey, and so should your daughter. It would be unpleasant but safe.

Romania update: 277 confirmed cases, 0 deaths, 25 cured.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Que on March 20, 2020, 02:51:38 AM
My son works for a large company in the travel industry. He had someone on the phone yesterday demanding immediate refund of deposit paid for expensive holiday. It was explained to the client that the company were working through £millions worth of deposits which takes time and eventually his money will be returned. With this my son received a blast  - My business has gone. Today, I sacked a dozen employees and I am ruined - I want my (deleted) money NOW!

In the Netherlands, and I believe some other EU-countries, the travel industry has stopped refunding customers to avoid a total finacial collapse and are issuing vouchers instead.

Q
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: pjme on March 20, 2020, 02:54:49 AM
Jeffrey, this may get you and your daughter already in the right mood. Congrats! But do stay at home.

https://www.youtube.com/v/AWdVtDrnIEE

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 20, 2020, 03:02:36 AM
Xi Jinping has buried the truth about coronavirus

The reaction to the outbreak has revealed the unreconstructed despotism of the Chinese state



https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/26/the-reaction-to-the-outbreak-has-revealed-the-unreceonstructed-despotism-of-the-chinese-state
 (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/26/the-reaction-to-the-outbreak-has-revealed-the-unreceonstructed-despotism-of-the-chinese-state)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 20, 2020, 03:12:10 AM
Latest update Romania: 308 confirmed, 31 cured, 0 deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 20, 2020, 04:59:20 AM
My son works for a large company in the travel industry. He had someone on the phone yesterday demanding immediate refund of deposit paid for expensive holiday. It was explained to the client that the company were working through £millions worth of deposits which takes time and eventually his money will be returned. With this my son received a blast  - My business has gone. Today, I sacked a dozen employees and I am ruined - I want my (deleted) money NOW!
Wow!   :o :(  Is your son afraid of losing his job?  Even temporarily?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Que on March 20, 2020, 05:09:55 AM
The whole Corona crisis is a scary thing.

My wife and I visited NY two weeks ago, had an enjoyable stay and did all sorts of stuff, including attending a performance of....The Flying Dutchman.

In hindsight that was the last performance at the Metropolitan Opera before it closed down.
Fortunately, unlike my countryman who was doomed the sail the seas until the end of times, our scheduled return flight left only 5 hours before the US travel ban for Europe went into force and many flights were cancelled.
The relief we felt when taking our seats at the plane of our national pride and the oldest airline in the world, good old Royal Dutch Airlines (KLM) ....

The plane actually didn't carry many Dutch passengers  and was mainly filled with people from other European countries and Russia, scrambling to get home. Two Italians informed with the crew whether there were still any connecting flights to Italy.... there weren't...

I had a short chat with the flight attendant, she was worried about the future of the company and her job. We now know that the Dutch govt. will be covering 90% of wages of all affected companies for at least the next 3 months. And I have no doubt that if things become even worse, a company like KLM would be nationalized. We are very fortunate that the Dutch govt has very deep pockets.. ..

When we returned home, I got groceries and we have been home ever since.

My personal observations on the Corona crisis:

1. Everyone of us will catch the virus eventually, unless we are inoculated with a vaccine before we get infected. Predictions are that this first wave will continue until at least 60% of the general population has been exposed to the virus and has developed immunity that will slow it down. It is highly unlikely that a vaccine will become widely available before that moment in many countries. But who knows,  perhaps a miracle will happen....

2. All that can be done now, is buying time and slowing down the spreading of the virus. The purpose would be to "flatten the curve", so as to avoid a collapse of the health care system needed to attend to the medical needs of those who are severely affected. The paradox of "flattening the curve" is however that by limiting the intensity of the epidemic, its duration (of the first wave) will be extended.

3. An alternative strategy to "flattening the curve" is containment. This is a viable course of action when there is a limited or concentrated number of cases, which can be traced and isolated. This has been tried/done in South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong. When cases are numerous and widely spread, containment can only be achieved by a total lockdown - literally locking up people in their homes. If containment is successfully achieved, there is a continuous risk of recurring outbreaks and the need for continuing any lockdown measures indefinitely, or at least until a vaccine is available. Example of successful containment of a virus: Ebola. Unsuccessful: HIV.

3. The global economic consequences of this crisis will be enormous. For the 98% of us who will survive the virus, the economic fall out and disruption of international trade will be a much bigger problem than the actual health threat.
I hope a collapse of the financial system and international supply chains can be prevented. But a global economic depression seems pretty likely.

4. Because the virus has initially spread through international travelling to affluent countries in the Western World and Asia, our current focus is on those countries. My concern is however, what will happen when the virus will spread in poor countries without highly developed health care or effective government? Just think about many countries in Africa and Asia, poverty stricken Venezuela, war-torn Syria, etc. The effects cannot be anything other than devastating....

Q
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Judith on March 20, 2020, 05:11:49 AM
Without being political, just wondering how you are all coping?
Must admit, getting me down. Not just the chance of catching illness itself but feel that life is on hold. No concerts, history talks, museums etc.
Am I feeling sorry for myself or anyone else feeling like I do?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: marvinbrown on March 20, 2020, 05:55:31 AM
It seems appropriate to have  a dedicated thread to COVID 19, given it's a worldwide event.
So here it is.

  Remarkable how genetic garbage (come on let's get real here viruses are genetic garbage!) can wreck so much havoc!

  marvin
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: pjme on March 20, 2020, 05:55:51 AM
Hi Judith, these are indeed very difficult and totally unusual & intimidating times. It is no wonder that we are feeling down. Especially since we don't know (and cannot predict) how long this crisis will last, nor how devastating its results will be.
So, let's focus on the positive aspects: the will to help, the courage and creativity of those who are already searching for solutions, the courage of all the people in the medical sector.
And do stay in contact with friends and family. And do post your thoughts here. Suggest music, talk about composers , musicians and performers, recordings.
Keep cool and stay positive!
Peter
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 20, 2020, 06:11:59 AM
If you can believe it was laid off just before Christmas (company financially failing) found a better job, sold the house in California, rented a house in Houston, Texas where I will be working, am on payroll pending relocation. Movers are supposed to come on April 2, My wife and I had planned to drive with our young child to Houston, and did I mention my wife is pregnant?

Now, with confirmed cases growing exponentially in California, the governor has issued a “stay at home order,” and effective next week we have no home. We are wondering if we will find travel forbidden, or travel hotels along the route shuttered.

Being stuck at home, watching Netflix and nervously checking dwindling checking accounts and 401Ks seems like paradise to me. I fully expect I could be dead before a month has past, and that is not the worst scenario I can imagine.

((distant hugs))
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 20, 2020, 06:19:17 AM
Without being political, just wondering how you are all coping?
Must admit, getting me down. Not just the chance of catching illness itself but feel that life is on hold. No concerts, history talks, museums etc.
Am I feeling sorry for myself or anyone else feeling like I do?

Coping as best I can: composing music, listening to lots of music, touching base with family and friends frequently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Daverz on March 20, 2020, 06:33:31 AM
Hi Judith, these are indeed very difficult and totally unusual & intimidating times. It is no wonder that we are feeling down. Especially since we don't know (and cannot predict) how long this crisis will last, nor how devastating its results will be.
So, let's focus on the positive aspects: the will to help, the courage and creativity of those who are already searching for solutions, the courage of all the people in the medical sector.
And do stay in contact with friends and family. And do post your thoughts here. Suggest music, talk about composers , musicians and performers, recordings.
Keep cool and stay positive!
Peter

Time to catch up on cat videos...

https://www.youtube.com/v/4ArItwfAYyo
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: aligreto on March 20, 2020, 06:38:34 AM
Without being political, just wondering how you are all coping?
Must admit, getting me down. Not just the chance of catching illness itself but feel that life is on hold. No concerts, history talks, museums etc.
Am I feeling sorry for myself or anyone else feeling like I do?

There is nothing unusual in what you are feeling. We all want things just to be normal again. That is a natural reaction in these kind of circumstances. You, like everybody, are looking for reassurance. Listen to the advice and follow the correct hygiene and social distancing protocols and stay safe. That is our number one priority. This will pass but it will take time, care, mental strength and the cooperation of all to get us through this. Be as strong as you can.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: greg on March 20, 2020, 06:47:41 AM
There still seems to be no evidence of it affecting other animals. So just bats and humans? That's really weird.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Irons on March 20, 2020, 07:12:33 AM
In the Netherlands, and I believe some other EU-countries, the travel industry has stopped refunding customers to avoid a total finacial collapse and are issuing vouchers instead.

Q

Which in these times is a sensible policy. We have paid a deposit (same company) for a holiday in November with balance due in August. I am happy for the deposit to be carried over for the following year if necessary.
As far as holidays are concerned Cruises will take a massive hit. They were just becoming more and more popular and companies such as P&O and Virgin have spent millions building new ships to match demand. It will take decades for them to recover from this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Irons on March 20, 2020, 07:16:50 AM
Wow!   :o :(  Is your son afraid of losing his job?  Even temporarily?

Last Monday the company purchased 200 laptops and instructed staff to work from home. I think the whole world is afraid of losing their job, P.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: pjme on March 20, 2020, 07:46:58 AM
There still seems to be no evidence of it affecting other animals. So just bats and humans? That's really weird.

it is very complicated, but for the moment the best information we have. Check chapter
 "Natural selection in an animal host before zoonotic transfer":

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: DaveF on March 20, 2020, 07:53:57 AM
Without being political, just wondering how you are all coping?
Must admit, getting me down. Not just the chance of catching illness itself but feel that life is on hold. No concerts, history talks, museums etc.
Am I feeling sorry for myself or anyone else feeling like I do?

Hi Judith,

Trying to keep going, as we all are, but agree it's deeply distressing and unsettling, and hard not to feel sorry for oneself.  I'm in the fortunate position of being in excellent health, my 60 years notwithstanding, having a guaranteed salary from my local government job and a house with no mortgage (albeit a second one that I'm trying to sell, with not surprisingly a complete lack of interest at the moment), so what it's like for those poor souls who have financial pressures on top of health worries I can't imagine.  Here in rural South Wales we haven't even seen the level of panic buying that has occurred elsewhere - the supermarket shelves are generally well-stocked, with only one or two shortage areas.  Although it has certainly been a day of "panic borrowing" in the library where I work.

I'm not that bothered about actually catching the virus - at least that would get it done with, and I'm fairly confident I'd survive without a problem.  The worry and concern spring more from the suspicion/certainty that those in charge have very little idea what is going on (and why should they? - it's never gone on before) and from the dread of being dependent for our future on the goodwill and selflessness of our fellow human beings, which with many notable exceptions seem to be generally wanting.  I cast around for the good news stories that I'm sure are out there, but there almost seems to be a conspiracy of silence - I read somewhere that new cases in China have fallen away almost to nothing, but try finding that statistic anywhere online.  Another small bit is that a cousin of mine in London, aged 39, has been suffering from it for 2 days and already feels much better.

Schubert's the man - had it worst of all and kept singing and dancing.

DF
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Iota on March 20, 2020, 07:58:32 AM
If you can believe it was laid off just before Christmas (company financially failing) found a better job, sold the house in California, rented a house in Houston, Texas where I will be working, am on payroll pending relocation. Movers are supposed to come on April 2, My wife and I had planned to drive with our young child to Houston, and did I mention my wife is pregnant?

Now, with confirmed cases growing exponentially in California, the governor has issued a “stay at home order,” and effective next week we have no home. We are wondering if we will find travel forbidden, or travel hotels along the route shuttered.

Being stuck at home, watching Netflix and nervously checking dwindling checking accounts and 401Ks seems like paradise to me. I fully expect I could be dead before a month has past, and that is not the worst scenario I can imagine.

Oh boy, that sounds terrible, I hope a manageable way through it appears. Best of luck!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Iota on March 20, 2020, 08:28:33 AM
And yes, in answer to Judith's point, I think a large part of the battle against this thing will be psychological one, both individual and group. If a feeling of hope can be engendered/stumbled upon, I think it will impact behaviour at all levels in a significant way, right up to government. Hope you can find a bit of buoyancy, Judith.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Ratliff on March 20, 2020, 08:38:01 AM
Whoa. I feel for YOU! I can only say that I hope you (and your family) stay safe and healthy.

Thank you.

Oh boy, that sounds terrible, I hope a manageable way through it appears. Best of luck!

It has to.

((distant hugs))

Returned.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 20, 2020, 08:57:04 AM
If you can believe it was laid off just before Christmas (company financially failing) found a better job, sold the house in California, rented a house in Houston, Texas where I will be working, am on payroll pending relocation. Movers are supposed to come on April 2, My wife and I had planned to drive with our young child to Houston, and did I mention my wife is pregnant?

Now, with confirmed cases growing exponentially in California, the governor has issued a “stay at home order,” and effective next week we have no home. We are wondering if we will find travel forbidden, or travel hotels along the route shuttered.

Being stuck at home, watching Netflix and nervously checking dwindling checking accounts and 401Ks seems like paradise to me. I fully expect I could be dead before a month has past, and that is not the worst scenario I can imagine.
Oh, boy!  Trying to think of what you could do?  Perhaps contact 1) a state agency to tell them what your predicament is and what you could do?  2) Maybe talk to your real estate agent and see if you could rent your home for a while from new owners (which leads me to wonder whether or not they could even move in due to the new restrictions?) 3) Keep in contact with your new employer regarding everything going on.

Warm wishes to you and hang in there!

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 20, 2020, 10:34:36 AM
If you can believe it was laid off just before Christmas (company financially failing) found a better job, sold the house in California, rented a house in Houston, Texas where I will be working, am on payroll pending relocation. Movers are supposed to come on April 2, My wife and I had planned to drive with our young child to Houston, and did I mention my wife is pregnant?

Now, with confirmed cases growing exponentially in California, the governor has issued a “stay at home order,” and effective next week we have no home. We are wondering if we will find travel forbidden, or travel hotels along the route shuttered.

Being stuck at home, watching Netflix and nervously checking dwindling checking accounts and 401Ks seems like paradise to me. I fully expect I could be dead before a month has past, and that is not the worst scenario I can imagine.

Kind wishes, best of luck and stay safe!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Judith on March 20, 2020, 10:37:10 AM
And yes, in answer to Judith's point, I think a large part of the battle against this thing will be psychological one, both individual and group. If a feeling of hope can be engendered/stumbled upon, I think it will impact behaviour at all levels in a significant way, right up to government. Hope you can find a bit of buoyancy, Judith.
Thank you for your thoughts
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Judith on March 20, 2020, 10:38:34 AM
Hi Judith,

Trying to keep going, as we all are, but agree it's deeply distressing and unsettling, and hard not to feel sorry for oneself.  I'm in the fortunate position of being in excellent health, my 60 years notwithstanding, having a guaranteed salary from my local government job and a house with no mortgage (albeit a second one that I'm trying to sell, with not surprisingly a complete lack of interest at the moment), so what it's like for those poor souls who have financial pressures on top of health worries I can't imagine.  Here in rural South Wales we haven't even seen the level of panic buying that has occurred elsewhere - the supermarket shelves are generally well-stocked, with only one or two shortage areas.  Although it has certainly been a day of "panic borrowing" in the library where I work.

I'm not that bothered about actually catching the virus - at least that would get it done with, and I'm fairly confident I'd survive without a problem.  The worry and concern spring more from the suspicion/certainty that those in charge have very little idea what is going on (and why should they? - it's never gone on before) and from the dread of being dependent for our future on the goodwill and selflessness of our fellow human beings, which with many notable exceptions seem to be generally wanting.  I cast around for the good news stories that I'm sure are out there, but there almost seems to be a conspiracy of silence - I read somewhere that new cases in China have fallen away almost to nothing, but try finding that statistic anywhere online.  Another small bit is that a cousin of mine in London, aged 39, has been suffering from it for 2 days and already feels much better.

Schubert's the man - had it worst of all and kept singing and dancing.

DF
Thank you for your kind words
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 20, 2020, 10:39:02 AM
Schubert's the man - had it worst of all and kept singing and dancing.

Indeed.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Judith on March 20, 2020, 10:39:35 AM
There is nothing unusual in what you are feeling. We all want things just to be normal again. That is a natural reaction in these kind of circumstances. You, like everybody, are looking for reassurance. Listen to the advice and follow the correct hygiene and social distancing protocols and stay safe. That is our number one priority. This will pass but it will take time, care, mental strength and the cooperation of all to get us through this. Be as strong as you can.
Thank you so much
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Judith on March 20, 2020, 10:40:51 AM
Hi Judith, these are indeed very difficult and totally unusual & intimidating times. It is no wonder that we are feeling down. Especially since we don't know (and cannot predict) how long this crisis will last, nor how devastating its results will be.
So, let's focus on the positive aspects: the will to help, the courage and creativity of those who are already searching for solutions, the courage of all the people in the medical sector.
And do stay in contact with friends and family. And do post your thoughts here. Suggest music, talk about composers , musicians and performers, recordings.
Keep cool and stay positive!
Peter
Thank you so much
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 20, 2020, 10:43:46 AM
Oh, boy!  Trying to think of what you could do?  Perhaps contact 1) a state agency to tell them what your predicament is and what you could do?  2) Maybe talk to your real estate agent and see if you could rent your home for a while from new owners (which leads me to wonder whether or not they could even move in due to the new restrictions?) 3) Keep in contact with your new employer regarding everything going on.

Warm wishes to you and hang in there!

PD

I second PD's second point, at least.  Even if they weren't planning to move in immediately, any renovation plans they had must be on hold.
And that's assuming their own financial position hasn't suffered severely!

Best of luck, and stay healthy, all four of you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 20, 2020, 10:46:07 AM

3. When cases are numerous and widely spread, containment can only be achieved by a total lockdown - literally locking up people in their homes.

Boris has just said that his scientists have told him that he needs to achieve a 75% reduction in social contact. Not 100%

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 20, 2020, 10:46:29 AM
Judith, think how fortunate we all here are: our hobbies (music, literature, fine arts) are actually tailor-made for such dire times and situations and should make our social isolation easier to endure. Concentrate on whatever you like and forget everything else. Better times are ahead.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 20, 2020, 10:58:42 AM
For those of us in the US:

Animal Planet channel is running an all day marathon of Too Cute. Reality TV show starring newborn kitties and puppies as they grow in their first year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 20, 2020, 10:59:48 AM
You should stay home, Jeffrey, and so should your daughter. It would be unpleasant but safe.

Romania update: 277 confirmed cases, 0 deaths, 25 cured.

Thank you Andrei and Fergus. Her two flat-mates have symptoms now so it looks like we will not be meeting up until such time as it is safe to do so. I told my students at school today ( before it closed down tonight) to try to see it as an extraordinary historical event and not just something to be anxious about. They will remember it for the rest of their lives. Some of them are secretly quite pleased about not having to sit their public exams whilst others are disappointed.
I'm pleased that there have been no fatalities in Romania.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 20, 2020, 11:02:55 AM
This is a popular thread isn't it? And probably necessary at this time. All thanks to Jeffrey (the other one) for starting it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 20, 2020, 11:11:53 AM
From Romania with love, to all GMGers!

Stay safe, obey all rules and restrictions imposed, keep strict hygienic rules and be optimistic! I wish you and all your loved ones and fellow countrymen all best of luck and very good health in these hard times!

As for myself, I'll isolate myself as much as I can together with my 79yo father which I can't leave because he can't move out from his bed and one of my maternal aunts 83yo who lives next door to us. My wife, 7yo son and my inlaws are isolated in a county 2 hours drive away fron Bucharest where no case has been reported as of yet.  As of yet the disease spreads in Romania at a moderate pace and I hope the trend will not going to
explode. The measures taken by the government proves quite effective, the irresponsibility of some people notwithstanding.

I'm sure that we all will get over this bloody crisis! May God and our own civic sense and respobsibility proect us alll!
All strength to you Andrei.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: pjme on March 20, 2020, 11:12:20 AM
This is a popular thread isn't it? And probably necessary at this time. All thanks to Jeffrey (the other one) for starting it.

Indeed, it helps to get away from cooking, cleaning, reading, browsing through cds, checking phones, watching TV...
I try to walk regularly & I made a 2 hour bike tour with a friend. Fresh air!

Kindest regards!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 20, 2020, 11:16:45 AM
I'm assuming that your school has a Learning Management System (LMS) and this is how they will remotely deliver the program. Our LMS is set up at the beginning of the school year with the whole program already there. It means that staff, students and parents can access it. It includes lessons, assessment, communications and the ability to submit work electronically.

I've been asked to set up work for the students in a specific year level on a week by week basis, just in case the Government decides we should close. All I had to do was create a small vodcast showing students what they had to do by pointing to the parts of the system where they could get the already set up programs.

If your school doesn't have an LMS then yes, you might easily have a tech nightmare.
I've had more support from the IT team at the school and also kind colleagues. I even managed to communicate with my classes via the IT online system, where we can see each other (like a Skype call). as we were all  in the same room it sounded like a lot of screaming Daleks from Dr Who trying to communicate, with continuous loud echoes. Still. As Lao Tse said 'The Journey of 1000 Miles starts with one step'.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 20, 2020, 11:17:16 AM
Indeed, it helps to get away from cooking, cleaning, reading, browsing through cds, checking phones, watching TV...
I try to walk regularly & I made a 2 hour bike tour with a friend. Fresh air!

Kindest regards!

You too  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Rinaldo on March 20, 2020, 11:32:29 AM
I went to see an apartment that I'm interested in renting and had an eerie, although pleasant walk through the oldest parts of Prague – the Lesser Quarter and the Old Town, connected by the Charles Bridge. Usually bursting with tourists, the streets were expectedly deserted. I had to stop and shoot a short video (https://twitter.com/janchor/status/1241074940155252739) as the silence reminded of the 2002 flood, when I was working on the cleanup and cars and tourists were prohibited to enter the Old Town.

It was a nice little moment of respite. Stay safe, you wonderful bunch of people!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: aligreto on March 20, 2020, 11:53:27 AM
Judith, think how fortunate we all here are: our hobbies (music, literature, fine arts) are actually tailor-made for such dire times and situations and should make our social isolation easier to endure. Concentrate on whatever you like and forget everything else. Better times are ahead.

All good points.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 20, 2020, 12:15:07 PM
I made a 2 hour bike tour with a friend. Fresh air!

Wait a minute! Everywhere in Europe authorities urge people to stay home, stay home, stay home and not get out unless for food or drugs and yet you take a 2 hour bike tour?  :o :o :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 20, 2020, 12:29:48 PM
https://www.youtube.com/v/3xt58OVnmXU
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 20, 2020, 12:34:46 PM
(https://d3thpuk46eyjbu.cloudfront.net/uploads/production/4352/1582837648/original/LernerCDCParodyBeardsMcSweeneys.gif?1582837648)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: mc ukrneal on March 20, 2020, 12:38:53 PM
For those of us in the US:

Animal Planet channel is running an all day marathon of Too Cute. Reality TV show starring newborn kitties and puppies as they grow in their first year.
Love that show. The shots they get are really amazing, and we enjoy the pitter patter of the narrator.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: pjme on March 20, 2020, 01:26:10 PM
Wait a minute! Everywhere in Europe authorities urge people to stay home, stay home, stay home and not get out unless for food or drugs and yet you take a 2 hour bike tour?  :o :o :o

Yes, the government encourages people to go for walks and/or bicycle rides, do sports, run... BUT: only with your direct family or the people who live in the same house. 1 friend is allowed, if all the other safety measures are respected: keep 1.5 m distance at all times, do not pick nick, barbecue etc. Use tissues to blow your nose etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 20, 2020, 01:28:36 PM
Yes, the government encourages people to go for walks and/or bicycle rides, do sports, run... BUT: only with your direct family or the people who live in the same house. 1 friend is allowed, if all the other safety measures are respected: keep 1.5 m distance at all times, do not pick nick, barbecue etc. Use tissues to blow your nose etc.

You mean 1.5 meters, right?

My American brain read first read that to mean 1.5 miles. :P
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: pjme on March 20, 2020, 02:02:34 PM
Yes meters!

And a Belgian romantic trifle  for the night:

https://www.youtube.com/v/vU-hVwRkx-M

Tomorrow: Enter spring!


Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Irons on March 20, 2020, 02:14:08 PM
All pubs, restaurants and gyms in the UK to close tonight and remained closed until further notice.

The new Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak - who is playing a blinder - after consulting Unions and CBI has announced that to save employees being sacked the Government will subsidise their pay to the tune of 80%.

I have this feeling that when eventually this is all over we will all be poorer but just maybe the world will be a better place. It will be different that is certain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 20, 2020, 02:41:32 PM


I have this feeling that when eventually this is all over we will all be poorer but just maybe the world will be a better place. It will be different that is certain.

     If it's a better place it won't be poorer for long. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/smiley.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 20, 2020, 02:47:20 PM
     If it's a better place it won't be poorer for long. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/smiley.gif)

Hear, hear!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 20, 2020, 02:47:49 PM
Winthrop man, 87, is 1st coronavirus death in Massachusetts as case tally rises to more than 400
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 20, 2020, 02:56:27 PM
Without being political, just wondering how you are all coping?
Must admit, getting me down. Not just the chance of catching illness itself but feel that life is on hold. No concerts, history talks, museums etc.
Am I feeling sorry for myself or anyone else feeling like I do?
Hi Judith,

It's hard to adjust to everything that is going on to say the least.  I don't know what kind of area you live in, but I find being out in Mother Nature helps.  Going for a walk/hike or if possible, working in your yard (if you have one) or allotment.  Culturally, well (see a different thread) there  have been and I think will be some free online concerts.  Though you can't go to them for the time being, there are a lot of online resources...perhaps checkout artists' websites or youtube, or learn more about favorite artists (checkout various scholarly articles), try some different apps or sites to learn a language....there are websites like the Ralph Vaughan Williams Society's website with free articles.  There are also e-books which one can check out from your library (and related ones) system.

The best thing, I think, is to keep in contact with the people that matter to you:  friends, family....think about reaching out to neighbors and friends who are older and maybe don't get out very often.

I know that it's hard, but hang in there; we'll make it through....somehow, someway.

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 20, 2020, 03:00:57 PM
I went to see an apartment that I'm interested in renting and had an eerie, although pleasant walk through the oldest parts of Prague – the Lesser Quarter and the Old Town, connected by the Charles Bridge. Usually bursting with tourists, the streets were expectedly deserted. I had to stop and shoot a short video (https://twitter.com/janchor/status/1241074940155252739) as the silence reminded of the 2002 flood, when I was working on the cleanup and cars and tourists were prohibited to enter the Old Town.

It was a nice little moment of respite. Stay safe, you wonderful bunch of people!
Wow, how strange (I checked out your video)!  That said, very quiet here in my town....little traffic.  Would love to visit Prague someday...such a beautiful country and I love your music.

All the best,

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 20, 2020, 03:09:12 PM
Last Monday the company purchased 200 laptops and instructed staff to work from home. I think the whole world is afraid of losing their job, P.
I know, I know....just still hard to hear.  I'm glad that he still has a job though.  Stores have closed (hopefully temporarily) around here.  We are, how do I say this, "proud" of being supportive of our local businesses around here (at least a good chunk of the local population is), so it's hard to say, but I think that they are doing the right thing by voluntarily closing; the question being though:  will they be able to survive?  Can they and/or will they try to still pay their employees as time goes on? 

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 20, 2020, 03:20:59 PM
I second PD's second point, at least.  Even if they weren't planning to move in immediately, any renovation plans they had must be on hold.
And that's assuming their own financial position hasn't suffered severely!

Best of luck, and stay healthy, all four of you.
Hi JBS,

I am trying to figure out exactly what the California governor means...saw a Twitter website....what is "essential"?

So, are/will the buyers be allowed to move??  Perhaps they are supposed to stay where they are living?  And maybe they are also in a similar situation too and like JBS said, they could also be trying to figure out their financial issues/problems?

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 20, 2020, 03:22:07 PM
I've had more support from the IT team at the school and also kind colleagues. I even managed to communicate with my classes via the IT online system, where we can see each other (like a Skype call). as we were all  in the same room it sounded like a lot of screaming Daleks from Dr Who trying to communicate, with continuous loud echoes. Still. As Lao Tse said 'The Journey of 1000 Miles starts with one step'.
Hey, progress!   ;D

And thanks for making me laugh too...that's very important right now.   :)

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: steve ridgway on March 20, 2020, 09:30:38 PM
I went to see an apartment that I'm interested in renting and had an eerie, although pleasant walk through the oldest parts of Prague – the Lesser Quarter and the Old Town, connected by the Charles Bridge. Usually bursting with tourists, the streets were expectedly deserted. I had to stop and shoot a short video (https://twitter.com/janchor/status/1241074940155252739) as the silence reminded of the 2002 flood, when I was working on the cleanup and cars and tourists were prohibited to enter the Old Town.

It was a nice little moment of respite. Stay safe, you wonderful bunch of people!

Wow that was quiet, not even a car manufacturer making an unrealistic commercial!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: GioCar on March 20, 2020, 10:51:17 PM
Yes, the government encourages people to go for walks and/or bicycle rides, do sports, run... BUT: only with your direct family or the people who live in the same house. 1 friend is allowed, if all the other safety measures are respected: keep 1.5 m distance at all times, do not pick nick, barbecue etc. Use tissues to blow your nose etc.

The same in Milan till last night. From this morning all those activities have been forbidden.
We had a delegation of Chinese experts visiting the city. They said that there were still too many people outside.
We have to stay at home. Period.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 20, 2020, 11:00:00 PM
Welcome in the Netherlands. :(

So far, the Dutch government has been rather 'soft' on regulation, compared to many other countries.
Nevertheless parts of the population are still neglecting these rules on a pretty high scale.
Especially the younger generations still come together in groups, they still hug and shake hands.
(Research, amongst 15.000 respondents, was done by the Amsterdam University Hospital.)

(https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BB11uhIn.img?h=554&w=799&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f&x=2333&y=444)

Yep, this Corona virus is nothing special, just the elderly and the weak will die. So what's new? :(

Sad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: 71 dB on March 21, 2020, 12:42:18 AM
Yep, this Corona virus is nothing special, just the elderly and the weak will die. So what's new? :(

Sad.

Other viruses also kill elderly and the weak, but at least we have methods like vaccination and medicine to deal with them. Corona virus is "special", because the treatments don't exist and most people don't have functioning immune system yet so the elderly and the weak fill fast the hospitals requiring intensive care and the whole healthcare system is in danger of collapsing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 21, 2020, 12:54:06 AM
Imo this lady is absolutely right.  :)

https://www.youtube.com/v/H7_wvQHMGOI
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 21, 2020, 12:58:17 AM
Other viruses also kill elderly and the weak, but at least we have methods like vaccination and medicine to deal with them. Corona virus is "special", because the treatments don't exist and most people don't have functioning immune system yet so the elderly and the weak fill fast the hospitals requiring intensive care and the whole healthcare system is in danger of collapsing.

I know, Poju.
Which, to me, makes this an entirely different situation.
I've been trying to explain the same to other people, too. They keep shrugging their shoulders and saying: it's just panic for nothing. I'm not gonna stay home when I don't want to.
I'm very unhappy with these 'nay' sayers, especially when they neglect the advices and regulations (whilst others do their utmost to obey), and also try to convince other people to neglect the problem, too. Because things aren't going all that well in this country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: 71 dB on March 21, 2020, 01:07:07 AM
Imo this lady is absolutely right.  :)

https://www.youtube.com/v/H7_wvQHMGOI

"What, have I got a band in my house? I can't read music!"
"Now our children will find out how dumb we are."

 :laugh:
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Irons on March 21, 2020, 01:10:18 AM
I know, I know....just still hard to hear.  I'm glad that he still has a job though.  Stores have closed (hopefully temporarily) around here.  We are, how do I say this, "proud" of being supportive of our local businesses around here (at least a good chunk of the local population is), so it's hard to say, but I think that they are doing the right thing by voluntarily closing; the question being though:  will they be able to survive?  Can they and/or will they try to still pay their employees as time goes on? 

PD

A small business would not last five minutes, P. They would sack their staff and then go bust. The UK Government are taking a massive gamble with essentially paying the workforce themselves. A policy that Lenin would be proud of. They are trying to see out the crises before the economy collapses completely but I worry that this is unsustainable for any length of time.
The news from Italy just gets worse. They have now overtaken China in deaths.

You make a good point shopping locally. The big supermarkets have been hit by a swarm of locusts. We did feel a sense of panic to be confronted by empty shelves. We are now shopping locally and managing fine but have to be early.   

Edit: https://youtu.be/XzdRs9LPj2M
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 21, 2020, 01:11:45 AM
"What, have I got a band in my house? I can't read music!"
"Now our children will find out how dumb we are."

 :laugh:

Love her.
But I won't be allowed to give her a hug... shalom to her though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: 71 dB on March 21, 2020, 01:18:46 AM
I know, Poju.
Which, to me, makes this an entirely different situation.
I've been trying to explain the same to other people, too. They keep shrugging their shoulders and saying: it's just panic for nothing. I'm not gonna stay home when I don't want to.
I'm very unhappy with these 'nay' sayers, especially when they neglect the advices and regulations (whilst others do their utmost to obey), and also try to convince other people to neglect the problem, too. Because things aren't going all that well in this country.

People don't know how it is in the hospitals. Also, this crisis came fast so people can't understand what is going on. Just week ago I was visiting my dad, but last Monday we realized we have to stop the visits to protect him as the situation escalated in Finland (we come a week behind other Nordic countries in this). Since last Monday I have tried to follow the instructions. I really want to see my dad, but what can you do? I suppose one day this is over and we can go back to "normal"...
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Que on March 21, 2020, 02:56:26 AM
The Financial Times keeps track of the numbers:

(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2Febcfb388-6ae3-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1260)

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

Q
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 21, 2020, 03:19:06 AM
Just a couple of questions about the UK, though they may well apply to other places, people may know the answer.

1. The strategy of widespread community testing and isolation which has been happening in South Korea looks as though it's successful at flattening the curve. I think it's in line with WHO recommendations. Why aren't the UK doing it?

2. It looks to me as though the government are following a model which says, basically, reduce people's freedom as the number of new cases increases -- so we can expect shops to close, and parks etc, over the next couple of weeks, and maybe the police will start to stop and ask people why they're on the streets, with associated fines. If I'm right, has the model been published?
mandryka
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 21, 2020, 03:59:50 AM
A small business would not last five minutes, P. They would sack their staff and then go bust. The UK Government are taking a massive gamble with essentially paying the workforce themselves. A policy that Lenin would be proud of. They are trying to see out the crises before the economy collapses completely but I worry that this is unsustainable for any length of time.
The news from Italy just gets worse. They have now overtaken China in deaths.

You make a good point shopping locally. The big supermarkets have been hit by a swarm of locusts. We did feel a sense of panic to be confronted by empty shelves. We are now shopping locally and managing fine but have to be early.   

Edit: https://youtu.be/XzdRs9LPj2M
Good to hear that you and 'your better half' are doing well.  Haven't been *grocery shopping for about a week but did notice when last in a big pharmacy chain that they had put limits on certain things (like baby wipes).  Need to get together a list within the next few days though.  As you mentioned, it's important to get there early.  Trying not to be greedy and think of what do I really NEED.  Felt for that poor nurse in your video link!  She, obviously, can't set her work hours and is at the mercy of how others act.  I hope that there were some kind folks who responded by donating some of their food to her?  Or that one of the grocery stores reached out to her?  Any further news Irons?
*short of picking up a head of broccoli at a small local store

Best wishes,

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 21, 2020, 04:25:31 AM
All pubs, restaurants and gyms in the UK to close tonight and remained closed until further notice.

The new Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak - who is playing a blinder - after consulting Unions and CBI has announced that to save employees being sacked the Government will subsidise their pay to the tune of 80%.

I have this feeling that when eventually this is all over we will all be poorer but just maybe the world will be a better place. It will be different that is certain.
Yes, I agree Lol. The world will be a different and, who knows, possibly better, kinder place with less pollution and people taking more care of each other. Maybe this is naively optimistic but who knows. An article in the Times today encouraged us to keep a written record of these extraordinary times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 21, 2020, 04:29:45 AM
1. The strategy of widespread community testing and isolation which has been happening in South Korea looks as though it's successful at flattening the curve. I think it's in line with WHO recommendations. Why aren't the UK doing it?

Shortage of testing kits may play a role.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 21, 2020, 04:35:10 AM
Hey, progress!   ;D

And thanks for making me laugh too...that's very important right now.   :)

PD

Good to know!

The dispute with my wife as to whether or not she should continue to go to gym (her 'Yes', myself and daughter 'No') has come to an end as the gym has closed down! The Times today had a page of advice for exercising at home. They suggest for over 70s (which I'm not) to practice standing on one leg for 20 seconds or more. I can manage about four seconds. But the good news is that you are allowed to hang onto the wash basin to prevent you toppling over on to the floor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Spineur on March 21, 2020, 04:40:08 AM
Good to know!

The dispute with my wife as to whether or not she should continue to go to gym (her 'Yes', myself and daughter 'No') has come to an end as the gym has closed down! The Times today had a page of advice for exercising at home. They suggest for over 70s (which I'm not) to practice standing on one leg for 20 seconds or more. I can manage about four seconds. But the good news is that you are allowed to hang onto the wash basin to prevent you toppling over on to the floor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Que on March 21, 2020, 04:52:10 AM
Just a couple of questions about the UK, though they may well apply to other places, people may know the answer.

1. The strategy of widespread community testing and isolation which has been happening in South Korea looks as though it's successful at flattening the curve. I think it's in line with WHO recommendations. Why aren't the UK doing it?

2. It looks to me as though the government are following a model which says, basically, reduce people's freedom as the number of new cases increases -- so we can expect shops to close, and parks etc, over the next couple of weeks, and maybe the police will start to stop and ask people why they're on the streets, with associated fines. If I'm right, has the model been published?
mandryka

Asian countires were far more alert and better prepared, because they were affected by the SARS epidemic and learned important lessons from that. I'm afraid that Western "exceptionalism" also played a very negative role in this....
Trump still calls this the "Chinese virus"... Perhaps someone should try to explain to him that the virus doesn't care?

Coronavirus: What could the West learn from Asia? (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51970379)

Q

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 21, 2020, 05:31:34 AM
Good to know!

The dispute with my wife as to whether or not she should continue to go to gym (her 'Yes', myself and daughter 'No') has come to an end as the gym has closed down! The Times today had a page of advice for exercising at home. They suggest for over 70s (which I'm not) to practice standing on one leg for 20 seconds or more. I can manage about four seconds. But the good news is that you are allowed to hang onto the wash basin to prevent you toppling over on to the floor.
There was a segment on a talk show the other day of how one could exercise at home; one bit, used jugs of water and/or cans of food in a kind of tote bag (equal weight in two bags) and doing arm lifts and squats holding them.  Perhaps you could have a family workout time?  Maybe burn a CD of favorite songs with a variety of tempos to aid you?  I'm lucky in that there are some areas not to far away where one can walk/hike/jog/run without seeing to many people.  I also need to get more yard work done.   :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 21, 2020, 05:34:28 AM

Nice to see that Babar is staying fit! 
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 21, 2020, 06:42:05 AM
Asian countires were far more alert and better prepared, because they were affected by the SARS epidemic and learned important lessons from that. I'm afraid that Western "exceptionalism" also played a very negative role in this....
Trump still calls this the "Chinese virus"... Perhaps someone should try to explain to him that the virus doesn't care?

Coronavirus: What could the West learn from Asia? (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51970379)

Q

What adds insult to injury is that the tests we don't have in the UK are made in the UK.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/randox-ships-covid-19-test-kits-to-wuhan-hospitals-1.4190697?mode=amp
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 21, 2020, 06:46:53 AM
Just a couple of questions about the UK, though they may well apply to other places, people may know the answer.

1. The strategy of widespread community testing and isolation which has been happening in South Korea looks as though it's successful at flattening the curve. I think it's in line with WHO recommendations. Why aren't the UK doing it?

Ask Boris Johnson.

Quote
2. It looks to me as though the government are following a model which says, basically, reduce people's freedom as the number of new cases increases

A responsible government should reduce people's freedom long before the number of new cases increases; actually, if they do that early, the number of cases will increase nevertheless but not exponentially, and this is crucial. The idea is not to stop the epidemic, which is impossible, but to slow it down as much as possible, in order not to crush the medical system and to give scientists time to develop and test treatments and vaccins.




Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 21, 2020, 06:52:08 AM
Trump still calls this the "Chinese virus"... Perhaps someone should try to explain to him that the virus doesn't care?

I beg to differ. If the Chinese authorities had taken the whole damn thing seriously when it started and imposed draconian restrictions right from the beginning, they would have contained it locally and it would haven't spread across the whole world, especially Europe. They didn't because of their bloody fucking communism allied with their bloody fucking nationalism --- and now we are all in deep shit. I'm sorry, but this is a Chinese virus --- as opposed to the so-called Spanish Flu, which was not Spanish at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 21, 2020, 06:55:10 AM
     As of this morning, here are the totals for cases and deaths:

(https://i.imgur.com/nNsLFRV.png)

     
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 21, 2020, 06:58:23 AM
Ask Boris Johnson.

A responsible government should reduce people's freedom long before the number of new cases increases; actually, if they do that early, the number of cases will increase nevertheless but not exponentially, and this is crucial. The idea is not to stop the epidemic, which is impossible, but to slow it down as much as possible, in order not to crush the medical system and to give scientists time to develop and test treatments and vaccins.

It's not so simple because you need the people to comply. Otherwise there'll be widespread civil disobedience. They will only comply when they "grok" the seriousness. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 21, 2020, 06:59:05 AM
I beg to differ. If the Chinese authorities had taken the whole damn thing seriously when it started and imposed draconian restrictions right from the beginning, they would have contained it locally and it would haven't spread across the whole world, especially Europe. They didn't because of their bloody fucking communism allied with their bloody fucking nationalism --- and now we are all in deep shit. I'm sorry, but this is a Chinese virus --- as opposed to the so-called Spanish Flu, which was not Spanish at all.

     The virus thrives in an authoritarian environment in which doctors and health experts are threatened or at least told to shut up.

     
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 21, 2020, 07:03:12 AM
     As of this morning, here are the totals for cases and deaths:

(https://i.imgur.com/nNsLFRV.png)

   

Bear in mind that the Chinese figures assume
1)regional authorities in China are being honest with the national authorities
2) the national authorities ars being honest with the rest of the world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 21, 2020, 07:04:27 AM
     As of this morning, here are the totals for cases and deaths:

(https://i.imgur.com/nNsLFRV.png)

   

The problem is that testing is different in each country, so the number of detected cases is a different proportion of the number of actual cases in each state.

(Terrible English but you know what I mean!)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 21, 2020, 07:12:19 AM
The problem is that testing is different in each country, so the number of detected cases is a different proportion of the number of actual cases in each state.

(Terrible English but you know what I mean!)

     I do, and as testing is ramping up in the US we'll soon pass Spain in the number of cases.

     
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Que on March 21, 2020, 07:36:29 AM
I beg to differ. If the Chinese authorities had taken the whole damn thing seriously when it started and imposed draconian restrictions right from the beginning, they would have contained it locally and it would haven't spread across the whole world, especially Europe. They didn't because of their bloody fucking communism allied with their bloody fucking nationalism --- and now we are all in deep shit. I'm sorry, but this is a Chinese virus --- as opposed to the so-called Spanish Flu, which was not Spanish at all.

Off course, the virus originates in China and and the Chinese authorities bear a lot of responsibility for its spread.

However, the virus is not Chinese in the sense that it only affects China. The mistake that was made in the West is to think that it wouldn't affect us. Authorities outside of China, including the US, had indications in January that an alarming situation was developing in China.

Q
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 21, 2020, 07:37:50 AM
It's not so simple because you need the people to comply. Otherwise there'll be widespread civil disobedience. They will only comply when they "grok" the seriousness.

Rational, responsible, civic-conscious, altruistic people will comply. All other people must be forced to comply. There is no alternative. This is one of those hard times when teh choice is between personal freedom and the life of others. What do you choose?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 21, 2020, 07:38:44 AM
The problem is that testing is different in each country, so the number of detected cases is a different proportion of the number of actual cases in each state.

Precisely. And this is part of the confusion everywhere.

Quote from: Mandryka
(Terrible English but you know what I mean!)

Not worse than my English.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 21, 2020, 07:42:13 AM
Off course, the virus originates in China and and the Chinese authorities bear a lot of responsibility for its spread.

Precisely, and in this respect calling it a Chinese virus is neither mistaken nor racist --- it's simply stating a fact. Trump is wrong on a myriad other issues but on this one he's spot on.

Quote
the virus is not Chinese in the sense that it only affects China. The mistake that was made in the West is to think that it wouldn't affect us. Authorities outside of China, including the US, had indications in January that an alarming situation was developing in China.

Agreed 100%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 21, 2020, 07:43:30 AM
A very good explanation of how you attack an RNA virus, especially in the corona family

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/covid-19-the-biology-of-an-effective-therapy/

Most interesting is the bit about why they tried chloroquine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 21, 2020, 07:45:35 AM
The problem is that testing is different in each country, so the number of detected cases is a different proportion of the number of actual cases in each state.

The number of officially confirmed cases in each country is most probably less than the total number of people infected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 21, 2020, 08:21:03 AM
Bear in mind that the Chinese figures assume
1)regional authorities in China are being honest with the national authorities
2) the national authorities ars being honest with the rest of the world.

     I think the numbers are good enough to form an accurate picture. Right now I think the suppression factor is most evident in the U.S. and Iran, for related though not identical reasons, a matter of degree between strict v. "aspirational" authoritarianism.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 21, 2020, 08:39:38 AM
The number of officially confirmed cases in each country is most probably less than the total number of people infected.

Correct. And in some states most of the cases diagnosed are ones which are so serious they need medical intervention. So it's impossible to draw any conclusions from the ratio of deaths to detected cases. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 21, 2020, 08:40:35 AM
     As of this morning, here are the totals for cases and deaths:

(https://i.imgur.com/nNsLFRV.png)

   

Looking at this, what I'm wondering is: why does France have fewer cases than Germany, but almost 10X as many deaths?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 21, 2020, 08:45:53 AM
Probably depends if tests are done preventively, or post-facto, once symptoms have been detected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 21, 2020, 08:54:38 AM
And on the number of ITU beds. But yes, Germany I think tests people with mild symptoms and isolates them; I'm pretty sure France only tests people whose symptoms are so severe they need to call emergency services.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 21, 2020, 09:02:20 AM
Looking at this, what I'm wondering is: why does France have fewer cases than Germany, but almost 10X as many deaths?

     I almost commented on this very point, France and Germany, or in the US context, similar disparities among the states.

     Georgia and Michigan are experiencing rapid growth in recorded cases, faster now than NY state. Washington state appears to be leveling off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 21, 2020, 09:08:52 AM
The problem is that testing is different in each country, so the number of detected cases is a different proportion of the number of actual cases in each state.

(Terrible English but you know what I mean!)
I was surprised at how high the number of cases were/are in Switzerland!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Irons on March 21, 2020, 09:11:19 AM
Yes, I agree Lol. The world will be a different and, who knows, possibly better, kinder place with less pollution and people taking more care of each other. Maybe this is naively optimistic but who knows. An article in the Times today encouraged us to keep a written record of these extraordinary times.

I do not think it naive, Jeffrey. Working from home, when possible, needed a trigger this is a thunderbolt! Why would companies pay millions for offices in the capitals of the world when they can perform just as effectively with modern communications without? As you say, this would result in less pollution and stress.
I count myself a part of the lucky generation - missed the war, swinging sixties, cheap mortgages and excellent healthcare. Our kids have it much harder. So time for us to get through this, in one piece hopefully.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 21, 2020, 09:11:27 AM
What adds insult to injury is that the tests we don't have in the UK are made in the UK.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/randox-ships-covid-19-test-kits-to-wuhan-hospitals-1.4190697?mode=amp
What kind of shortages are you experiencing in the UK?  Is there any reason why that company isn't or hasn't (if that's the case) been able to sell their tests in the UK? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 21, 2020, 09:19:32 AM
The importance of proper hand washing technique. This is a convincing 30 second video.

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1241177007305744384


Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 21, 2020, 09:36:28 AM
Correct. And in some states most of the cases diagnosed are ones which are so serious they need medical intervention. So it's impossible to draw any conclusions from the ratio of deaths to detected cases.

The mortality rate is demonstrably not very much higher than that of the seasonal flu. The problem is the very much higher rate of contagiousness which buckles the medical system to the brink of collapse. That's why social distancing and isolation is essential. We absolutely must buy time.

Stay home, folks, stay home!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 21, 2020, 09:48:52 AM

      My niece is doing fine. She is a horsegirlcarthing, and she sent me a drawing of a Toyota Previa.

     
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 21, 2020, 10:57:57 AM
      My niece is doing fine. She is a horsegirlcarthing, and she sent me a drawing of a Toyota Previa.

     
Pardon, but what is a horsegirlcarthing?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 21, 2020, 12:04:33 PM
Pardon, but what is a horsegirlcarthing?

     She would race tiny toy cars in the living room, then she partially transferred her allegiance to horses, but kept her car thing going. The Toyote Previa has been her spirit car since tinyhood, though other oddball cars play a role.

     (https://i.imgur.com/mkUdQuO.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Rinaldo on March 21, 2020, 12:48:11 PM
If the people of Netherlands need some convincing, show them the numbers from Italy. 793 deaths today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 21, 2020, 12:55:34 PM
     This statement originating with the NSC was sent out by the State Dept for use as a talking point:

“Chinese Communist Party officials in Wuhan and Beijing had a special responsibility to inform the Chinese people and the world of the threat, since they were the first to learn of it,” the cable reads. “Instead, the... government hid news of the virus from its own people for weeks, while suppressing information and punishing doctors and journalists who raised the alarm. The Party cared more about its reputation than its own people’s suffering.”

      This quote seems apt:

"You have sat here too long for any good you are doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!"
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 21, 2020, 01:34:02 PM
     
     (https://i.imgur.com/HpyffCc.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: 71 dB on March 21, 2020, 01:36:29 PM
I think the Corona virus situation is so bad in Italy and Spain because these are Catholic countries:

- Family is THE safety net in catholic cultures. Social distancing destroys that.
- Suicide is a sin in catholic cultures. Corona virus allows suicides to be labeled as Corona virus deaths.

I don't think if I am correct, but my brain came up with this theory.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 21, 2020, 01:57:35 PM
I think the Corona virus situation is so bad in Italy and Spain because these are Catholic countries:

- Family is THE safety net in catholic cultures. Social distancing destroys that.
- Suicide is a sin in catholic cultures. Corona virus allows suicides to be labeled as Corona virus deaths.

I don't think if I am correct, but my brain came up with this theory.



     I don't know about Catholic but these are Latin countries, very social and perhaps a little late in reducing their tendency to clump together, eat, drink and be happy.

     I don't know what's going on with the Germans. It's getting on my nerves. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/smiley.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 21, 2020, 02:16:44 PM
     She would race tiny toy cars in the living room, then she partially transferred her allegiance to horses, but kept her car thing going. The Toyote Previa has been her spirit car since tinyhood, though other oddball cars play a role.

     (https://i.imgur.com/mkUdQuO.jpg)
Ah, does she also want to live in something like this?: 
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/5PMAOhVC-9Y/maxresdefault.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 21, 2020, 02:29:19 PM
Ah, does she also want to live in something like this?: 
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/5PMAOhVC-9Y/maxresdefault.jpg)

     I think she wants to semi-live in a barn.

      (https://i.imgur.com/RO3Oekg.jpg)

     
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 21, 2020, 02:38:28 PM
     I think she wants to semi-live in a barn.

      (https://i.imgur.com/RO3Oekg.jpg)

     
;D Horses are great; I can well understand her wanting to be around them.  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 21, 2020, 03:57:56 PM
I think the Corona virus situation is so bad in Italy and Spain because these are Catholic countries:

- Family is THE safety net in catholic cultures. Social distancing destroys that.
- Suicide is a sin in catholic cultures. Corona virus allows suicides to be labeled as Corona virus deaths.

I don't think if I am correct, but my brain came up with this theory.

What about Iran and China? What does your brain say ?

 ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 21, 2020, 04:54:56 PM
If the people of Netherlands need some convincing, show them the numbers from Italy. 793 deaths today.

All those figures are well-known here.
Despite that: crowded beaches (for the 'regular' first beach walk in spring), forests and trains today. Hey, it's a sunny weekend, f*ck the virus, f*ck the consequences, let's pretend nothing serious is going on.

(https://talkudil.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/struisvogel.jpg)

Look at my face!
Does my face look bovvered?


:(

My prediction: if this utterly stubborn behaviour here continues, it won't take long until the Dutch government opts for a total lockdown, with huge fines for not obeying. Thanks to all those mindless believers in personal 'freedom'.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 21, 2020, 05:29:26 PM
UK hotels to become homeless shelters under coronavirus plan (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/21/uk-hotels-homeless-shelters-coronavirus)


Cities struggle to protect vulnerable homeless populations as coronavirus spreads (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/cities-struggle-to-protect-vulnerable-homeless-populations-as-coronavirus-spreads/2020/03/20/1144249c-67be-11ea-b5f1-a5a804158597_story.html)


California takes precautions to keep homeless population safe from the coronavirus (https://thehill.com/changing-america/respect/poverty/488661-california-takes-precautions-to-keep-homeless-population)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 21, 2020, 06:41:45 PM
All those figures are well-known here.
Despite that: crowded beaches (for the 'regular' first beach walk in spring), forests and trains today. Hey, it's a sunny weekend, f*ck the virus, f*ck the consequences, let's pretend nothing serious is going on.

(https://talkudil.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/struisvogel.jpg)

Look at my face!
Does my face look bovvered?


:(

My prediction: if this utterly stubborn behaviour here continues, it won't take long until the Dutch government opts for a total lockdown, with huge fines for not obeying. Thanks to all those mindless believers in personal 'freedom'.

Friday Belgium sealed its border with the Netherlands, and police turned away dutch tourists away after widely condemned ‘rampages’ in beaches, parks, stores, while locals were consigned to their homes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 21, 2020, 06:43:23 PM
Nice to see that Babar is staying fit!

+1
 :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 21, 2020, 07:08:48 PM
Friday Belgium sealed its border with the Netherlands, and police turned away dutch tourists away after widely condemned ‘rampages’ in beaches, parks, stores, while locals were consigned to their homes.

I debate denialists on another site. What strikes me is no matter how often you tell them it isn’t just the death rate that is a worry they never pay attention. It never occurs to them to consider the consequences of 50 or 60% of the country being ill, often seriously ill, at the same time. With no medicine.

We cannot have a permanent lockdown like some US states are doing, but we cannot just let it rip either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 22, 2020, 01:54:59 AM
Today’s Sunday Times

(https://i.ibb.co/bBfKJ90/2-F7-FEA28-0-AFF-4167-808-C-861376352-B20.jpg)

Interesting article here

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/10-days-that-changed-britains-coronavirus-approach
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Irons on March 22, 2020, 02:16:16 AM
My granddaughter has it! We now believe mum and both children caught the virus through a trip to Disney Paris three weeks ago. Thankfully a sky-high temperature didn't last long and she is now on the mend. Mum thought she and baby boy had a heavy cold but speaking to 111 they had the virus. She is now free to mix as she pleases but her husband, my son, as the only one of the family not to succumb is on lock down although he feels absolutely fine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 22, 2020, 03:48:09 AM
This is worth watching

https://www.facebook.com/1309807577/videos/10222606298128711/
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 22, 2020, 04:08:08 AM
My granddaughter has it! We now believe mum and both children caught the virus through a trip to Disney Paris three weeks ago. Thankfully a sky-high temperature didn't last long and she is now on the mend. Mum thought she and baby boy had a heavy cold but speaking to 111 they had the virus. She is now free to mix as she pleases but her husband, my son, as the only one of the family not to succumb is on lock down although he feels absolutely fine.
Oh, dear!  Glad to hear that everyone has recovered and hope that your son continues to be in good health.  Curious though:  how were they able to diagnose just over the phone?  Couldn't it have been something different?  Just a bit confused here....

Anyway, I wish all of you the best health!

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Que on March 22, 2020, 04:22:13 AM
Today’s Sunday Times

(https://i.ibb.co/bBfKJ90/2-F7-FEA28-0-AFF-4167-808-C-861376352-B20.jpg)

Interesting article here

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/10-days-that-changed-britains-coronavirus-approach

Not surprising....

The Dutch government has been accused of a similar strategy: letting the virus run its course in a "controlled" way until the threshold for group immunity has been reached.

What is actually done now in most countries is supressing the rate in which the virus spreads. When - and as long as - the transmission rate is below 1:1, the total number of cases goes down. If successful, this will happen before the threshold of group immunity is reached. Although the build up of immunity is a gradual process: any level below the threshold would still contribute in slowing down another outbreak or next wave.

Q
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Spineur on March 22, 2020, 04:51:16 AM
Serbia national orchestra plays Bella Ciao in support for Italians, in an amazing synchronized video-call.  This is very touching, I find

https://www.youtube.com/v/L63f5DdzYNg
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 22, 2020, 05:51:11 AM
Supermarkets give workers raises amid coronavirus pandemic (https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/21/metro/stop-shop-gives-union-employees-raises-additional-sick-leave/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 22, 2020, 06:00:28 AM
Friday Belgium sealed its border with the Netherlands, and police turned away dutch tourists away after widely condemned ‘rampages’ in beaches, parks, stores, while locals were consigned to their homes.
I'm curious as to where you read about 'rampages as I hadn't seen any stories about that?

Best wishes,

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 22, 2020, 06:02:05 AM
Supermarkets give workers raises amid coronavirus pandemic (https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/21/metro/stop-shop-gives-union-employees-raises-additional-sick-leave/)
I did hear that over the news too.   :)

Best wishes,

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: milk on March 22, 2020, 06:42:15 AM
I’m really confused about what’s going on here in Japan. We were hit early with a few cases as there are usually many Chinese tourists here. The schools have been closed since February and attractions are also closed. The government seems to think Japan has been spared and is talking about letting schools reopen (at their usual time as this has been an extended spring break or, actually, a spring break that started early). As a country, the the numbers are not like Italy or Spain. However, testing is fairly low, from what I understand, and the Osaka area, where I live, has seen a small spike. Experts have been asking the question of why Japan hasn’t been hit harder. The answer is either a mishmash of conjecture or that Japan is about to see a second devastating wave. Meanwhile it looks like my job, university, is on hold until perhaps May. I really didn’t take things seriously early on and now I’m panicking a little. I see many people out and about acting normally, even though schools and amusements are closed. For example, the playgrounds are quite crowded with kids (and I took my kid a few times I’m ashamed to admit). I’m worried that many of us here in Japan didn’t take this seriously enough. I guess lots of people are in the same boat but how are we all going to survive financially? I’m less worried about getting sick than economies and societies collapsing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 22, 2020, 07:18:16 AM
I'm curious as to where you read about 'rampages as I hadn't seen any stories about that?

Best wishes,

PD

RTBF tv news among others, as well as a few press articles.


https://www.7sur7.be/belgique/la-police-a-renvoye-700-neerlandais-qui-ont-passe-la-frontiere-avec-le-limbourg~addd41ff/?referrer=https://www.google.ca/ (https://www.7sur7.be/belgique/la-police-a-renvoye-700-neerlandais-qui-ont-passe-la-frontiere-avec-le-limbourg~addd41ff/?referrer=https://www.google.ca/)

https://www.lesoir.be/288656/article/2020-03-19/coronavirus-le-bourgmestre-de-stavelot-fustige-lattitude-des-touristes (https://www.lesoir.be/288656/article/2020-03-19/coronavirus-le-bourgmestre-de-stavelot-fustige-lattitude-des-touristes)

https://plus.lesoir.be/288948/article/2020-03-20/coronavirus-la-fermeture-des-frontieres-belges-renvoie-les-neerlandais-chez-eux (https://plus.lesoir.be/288948/article/2020-03-20/coronavirus-la-fermeture-des-frontieres-belges-renvoie-les-neerlandais-chez-eux)

https://www.rtbf.be/info/regions/liege/detail_stavelot-des-touristes-neerlandais-irresponsables?id=10462982 (https://www.rtbf.be/info/regions/liege/detail_stavelot-des-touristes-neerlandais-irresponsables?id=10462982)

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 22, 2020, 07:19:42 AM
     I'm paying attention to confirmed v. active cases. China and S. Korea are seeing a drop in active cases. In countries with rising active case totals, almost all counties, even with expanded testing there is a noticeable slowing of the rate of growth in some counties hit hard early. Is this "herd semi-immunity"?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 22, 2020, 07:20:57 AM
I did hear that over the news too.   :)

Best wishes,

PD

Good news, as these folks find themselves willy-nilly basically on the front lines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 22, 2020, 07:21:47 AM
Today’s Sunday Times

(https://i.ibb.co/bBfKJ90/2-F7-FEA28-0-AFF-4167-808-C-861376352-B20.jpg)

Interesting article here

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/10-days-that-changed-britains-coronavirus-approach

I fear he is right, and that might actually be the best approach. It was not a good plan to follow, because it bet the farm on several unproven assumptions and was far too risky. I am glad they changed course. But that doesn’t mean it couldn’t turn out to have been right.

Several cases in town here. Including one MacDonald's worker, which is worrying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 22, 2020, 07:24:58 AM
I fear he is right, and that might actually be the best approach. It was not a good plan to follow, because it bet the farm on several unproven assumptions and was far too risky. I am glad they changed course. But that doesn’t mean it couldn’t turn out to have been right.

Several cases in town here. Including one MacDonald's worker, which is worrying.

Gotta break some eggs to make an omelette isn't really a good look, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: pjme on March 22, 2020, 07:25:23 AM
https://www.hln.be/video/hoogstraten-sluit-nederlandse-sluipwegen-af-met-containers~p136410

Belgian police controls and barricades the Belgo-Dutch border short cuts / Antwerp province. The main roads stay open.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 22, 2020, 07:28:33 AM
Gotta break some eggs to make an omelette isn't really a good look, though.
No. I was impressed by Johnson's bottle, to use a Brit word, in putting the plan forward, and I was impressed by how well thought out it was by his science advisors. But I was also appalled. What if we can find a way to reduce the area under the curve after all? Then the plan has possibly killed hundreds of thousands. And it relied on several other unproven assumptions too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 22, 2020, 07:31:23 AM
Not surprising....

The Dutch government has been accused of a similar strategy: letting the virus run its course in a "controlled" way until the threshold for group immunity has been reached.

What is actually done now in most countries is supressing the rate in which the virus spreads. When - and as long as - the transmission rate is below 1:1, the total number of cases goes down. If successful, this will happen before the threshold of group immunity is reached. Although the build up of immunity is a gradual process: any level below the threshold would still contribute in slowing down another outbreak or next wave.

Q

I can see the idea behind the herd (semi-) immunity thought. But the way things are developing now, with the neglecting behaviour of far too many Dutch citizens, I guess that we are going to switch to the suppressing variant, too.
Read today about a police officer in Leiden, who was warning a group of teenagers who were grouping together in a park, playing football, sitting closely next to each other and such. These youngsters told him that they don't get their 'reliable' Corona information from the government and Health Organisations websites, but from different internet sources. And apparently their 'reliable' sources tell them completely different 'truths'. According the the police officer, these kids did not have a clue about what was going on. "Can't we play football anymore?"
I guess this also goes for many of their parents. It was crowded again this afternoon on the Scheveningen boulevard. Even boxing clinics were given on the beach.

And it's not just the young by the way. Yesterday, in the super market, it was mainly the elderly people who grouped together to discuss the sitation. They made no effort at all to keep at distance from each other and from other people. I shook my head a little and one grey showed me a grin, I have no idea why. Maybe he wanted to say: hey dude, we are going to die soon any way?

Well, as the Dutch themselves use to say: schiet mij maar lek.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 22, 2020, 07:42:13 AM

     Herd immunity is a natural consequence you don't need a strategy to implement. The herd, or what's left of it, will be immune unless a dramatic new way of treating the virus short circuits the process until we get a vaccine.

     Immunity and suppression should work together. Both will buy time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: greg on March 22, 2020, 08:14:00 AM
I’m really confused about what’s going on here in Japan. We were hit early with a few cases as there are usually many Chinese tourists here
At least I'm not the only one who noticed how many Chinese tourists there are.  :D

I don't see the data on Japan, but Korea has somewhat flattened the curve already, so probably Japan has as well. Quite an impressively low death count- especially considering the old population. I'm a bit confused on this also. Seems like it couldn't be accurate.


I’m less worried about getting sick than economies and societies collapsing.
Same here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 22, 2020, 08:28:52 AM
     Herd immunity is a natural consequence you don't need a strategy to implement. The herd, or what's left of it, will be immune unless a dramatic new way of treating the virus short circuits the process until we get a vaccine.

     Immunity and suppression should work together. Both will buy time.

Yeah, of course. Herd immunity is a natural process, not a strategy. But if we let it just go like that, then the pressure on medicare and society gets far too high. The death toll is gonna be very high. I guess that's not what we want. In the 'modern and civilized country' that I live in, there is already a shortage of Intensive Care chambers and beds in hospitals in the south. So governments and health institutions have to come up with a strategy. As Que said, a total lockdown might flatten and lower the curve before the herd immunity is 'spread'. And things might start all over again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 22, 2020, 08:43:07 AM
Yeah, of course. Herd immunity is a natural process, not a strategy. But if we let it just go like that, then the pressure on medicare and society gets far too high.

     That's how I see it. If you can arrange for deaths to occur later, there will be fewer deaths. Also, herd immunity is a matter of degree, so there are more and more people who got the virus, never developed symptoms and are no longer spreading it. The virus slows as it hits more individual firebreaks that were never tested. We don't know about them, there's no way of counting them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 22, 2020, 09:12:07 AM
Emboldened wild animals venture into locked-down cities worldwide
Deer, raccoons, turkeys and other creatures have made their way into urban settings they might normally avoid (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/animals-cities-coronavirus-lockdowns-deer-raccoons)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 22, 2020, 09:31:17 AM
Emboldened wild animals venture into locked-down cities worldwide
Deer, raccoons, turkeys and other creatures have made their way into urban settings they might normally avoid (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/animals-cities-coronavirus-lockdowns-deer-raccoons)

"Let the jungle in!"
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 22, 2020, 10:23:24 AM
I guess lots of people are in the same boat but how are we all going to survive financially? I’m less worried about getting sick than economies and societies collapsing.

Yes, and in all fairness to the British government, they appear to be trying to deal with this.

You can't ask people to isolate themselves unless you give them the means to do so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 22, 2020, 11:03:57 AM
     A region in Japan launched its own coronavirus fight. It’s now called a ‘model’ in local action. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/japan-coronavirus-wakayama/2020/03/22/02da83bc-65f5-11ea-8a8e-5c5336b32760_story.html)

Japanese bureaucrats are famous for following the rules. But Japan’s southwestern region of Kansai is a little bit different, a place where people take pride in their independence. Wakayama prefecture has an independent politician in the governor’s office, Yoshinobu Nisaka, who said he doesn’t follow government guidelines and prefers to take an “original approach.”

     I don't care how failing or lamestream the tentpole news media are. I don't play that game. I want the news, so I go where news is, where standards are high and today confirms what I read the day before and on and on until the News Heat Death.

     What happened in Wakayama prefecture is a part of the story in Japan. Now I know a little about it. I read it in the WaPo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 22, 2020, 11:38:17 AM
My granddaughter has it! We now believe mum and both children caught the virus through a trip to Disney Paris three weeks ago. Thankfully a sky-high temperature didn't last long and she is now on the mend. Mum thought she and baby boy had a heavy cold but speaking to 111 they had the virus. She is now free to mix as she pleases but her husband, my son, as the only one of the family not to succumb is on lock down although he feels absolutely fine.
Hope it all works out well Lol.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Iota on March 22, 2020, 11:46:12 AM
Yes, and in all fairness to the British government, they appear to be trying to deal with this.

You can't ask people to isolate themselves unless you give them the means to do so.

I agree with this. I think Rishi Sunak has broadly responded well to the maelstrom. However as a self employed person, I am in a category he seems to have left out of any plans for support. As my income abruptly dried up last week, I am hoping that I can either find a way round the impasse, or that or I can last until the situation eases, the latter being rather fanciful.

While Sunak seems to have responded strongly (except for me and others like me), Boris Johnson is looking somewhat dazed in the headlights and sounding as if for the first time he's just realising the job is not all about him. I do hope he ups his game because it would help everybody. As I said earlier I think a big part of the battle is going to be psychological, and I think he could play a positive part in that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 22, 2020, 12:11:18 PM

Chancellor Angela Merkel in self-isolation. she received a vaccine (not for Covid-19) from a doctor who tested positive 2 days later.

Senator Rand Paul (USA) and singer Placido Domingo tested positive for Covid-19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 22, 2020, 01:57:57 PM
         
     (https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1241374007066349573/CILeNhjk?format=jpg&name=600x314)

     Before Angela went into isolation, she went shopping, observing protocol by staying away from other shoppers. Ausgezeichnet! (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/smiley.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 22, 2020, 02:26:57 PM
Chancellor Angela Merkel in self-isolation. she received a vaccine (not for Covid-19) from a doctor who tested positive 2 days later.

Senator Rand Paul (USA) and singer Placido Domingo tested positive for Covid-19.

Is that the same Rand Paul who recently stalled passing of an economic rescue package by trying to attach nonsense amendments to it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 22, 2020, 02:50:29 PM
Is that the same Rand Paul who recently stalled passing of an economic rescue package by trying to attach nonsense amendments to it?

The very same.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 22, 2020, 05:53:57 PM
Our PM just announced we've got 48 hours to prepare for a 4-week full lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 22, 2020, 06:48:46 PM
Our PM just announced we've got 48 hours to prepare for a 4-week full lockdown.

Good luck!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Ratliff on March 22, 2020, 10:38:23 PM
     Herd immunity is a natural consequence you don't need a strategy to implement. The herd, or what's left of it, will be immune unless a dramatic new way of treating the virus short circuits the process until we get a vaccine.

     Immunity and suppression should work together. Both will buy time.

Yes, but the term "herd immunity" is usually used to refer to vaccine conferred immunity (possibly in combination with some natural immunity).

The disease has a characteristic time coarse. You are infected, after maybe 5 days you exhibit mild symptoms, after 10 days, maybe still mild, maybe you feel so bad you can't get out of bed. By 14-21 days there's a 1-2% chance you're dead, otherwise you're probably recovering. If you're still alive at 30 days you are probably immune to reinfection. If exposed again you won't get sick and spread if further. Probably you are contagious after 3 days, until you recover. I gather that during the time people are walking around, not knowing how sick they are, they infect another 3 or 4 people.

If you do really strong isolation as the Chinese seem to have done you can reach a point where a sick person is unlikely to give the disease to anyone else. People are restricted to their homes, the economy is just turned off and some army unit delivers a package of rations to you once a week. Maybe a person only has a 10% chance of giving the disease to someone and week by week infections go from 100,000, to 10,000, 1,000, 100, 10, 1. At that point the disease is extinguished, but most people have never had the virus and there is no general immunity. It can roar back, but at least you know what you are facing and are in a situation where you can trace every new infection one by one and stop it. Then they can turn the economy back on.

In the U.S. it seems like no one is imagining that level of control. The social distancing, shelter-at-home orders probably will only reduce transmission to a moderate degree. Maybe an infected person is, on average, giving it to 1.5 other people in the course of their illness instead of 3 or 4. The disease still grows exponentially, but slower. The health care system is not completely overwhelmed. In the end, essentially everyone has gotten the disease and has either died or acquired immunity. But you haven't saved the entire population from taking that 1-2% chance of dying. Maybe the best result is you slow it down enough that a vaccine is found before the epidemic runs its course. But the epidemic happens in slow motion and the economy is shuttered for a longer time. Deciding how strong an intervention is ideal is not a simple problem.

The desirable form of herd immunity is when you get it from a vaccine, without taking the risk of dying of the disease in order to get immunity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: pjme on March 23, 2020, 12:11:08 AM
"Let the jungle in!"

Rather not, I'd say. Animals should not eat junk food, let alone plastic...

https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-news/belgium-all-news/science/97811/research-urban-junk-food-diet-is-bad-for-city-birds-microbiota-fibre-gut-bacteria-intestinal-flora/

During a visit to Indonesia (at least 20 years ago) I already saw deer, apes and raccoon like animals scavenge dustbins and plastic garbage bags...
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Irons on March 23, 2020, 12:17:07 AM
Oh, dear!  Glad to hear that everyone has recovered and hope that your son continues to be in good health.  Curious though:  how were they able to diagnose just over the phone?  Couldn't it have been something different?  Just a bit confused here....

Anyway, I wish all of you the best health!

PD

Not as confused as me, P. The mum had no idea she had the virus until phoning 111. Their instructions are clear she, with baby, can go out. My granddaughter is quarantined for one week, my son for two. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 23, 2020, 12:19:46 AM
Oh, dear!  Glad to hear that everyone has recovered and hope that your son continues to be in good health.  Curious though:  how were they able to diagnose just over the phone?  Couldn't it have been something different?  Just a bit confused here....

Anyway, I wish all of you the best health!

PD

From me too Lol.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 23, 2020, 12:21:43 AM
I do not think it naive, Jeffrey. Working from home, when possible, needed a trigger this is a thunderbolt! Why would companies pay millions for offices in the capitals of the world when they can perform just as effectively with modern communications without? As you say, this would result in less pollution and stress.
I count myself a part of the lucky generation - missed the war, swinging sixties, cheap mortgages and excellent healthcare. Our kids have it much harder. So time for us to get through this, in one piece hopefully.
Thanks Lol.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Irons on March 23, 2020, 12:25:21 AM
Hope it all works out well Lol.

Thanks, Jeffrey. Watching my son closely - from afar - he is sharing accommodation with three people who had the virus. He even slept with his daughter while she had a raging temperature! He feels fine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Irons on March 23, 2020, 12:37:58 AM
I’m really confused about what’s going on here in Japan. We were hit early with a few cases as there are usually many Chinese tourists here. The schools have been closed since February and attractions are also closed. The government seems to think Japan has been spared and is talking about letting schools reopen (at their usual time as this has been an extended spring break or, actually, a spring break that started early). As a country, the the numbers are not like Italy or Spain. However, testing is fairly low, from what I understand, and the Osaka area, where I live, has seen a small spike. Experts have been asking the question of why Japan hasn’t been hit harder. The answer is either a mishmash of conjecture or that Japan is about to see a second devastating wave. Meanwhile it looks like my job, university, is on hold until perhaps May. I really didn’t take things seriously early on and now I’m panicking a little. I see many people out and about acting normally, even though schools and amusements are closed. For example, the playgrounds are quite crowded with kids (and I took my kid a few times I’m ashamed to admit). I’m worried that many of us here in Japan didn’t take this seriously enough. I guess lots of people are in the same boat but how are we all going to survive financially? I’m less worried about getting sick than economies and societies collapsing.

It is crazy that the Japanese Government and IOC still plan for the Olympics to go ahead. Shocking to see the mass of people (55,000) in an enclosed place at Sendai for a glimpse of the Olympic flame.

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 23, 2020, 12:50:27 AM
Yes,



No one knows what sort of immunity the virus confers - how strongly it protects against immediate reinfection and how long it lasts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Que on March 23, 2020, 12:51:49 AM
     That's how I see it. If you can arrange for deaths to occur later, there will be fewer deaths. Also, herd immunity is a matter of degree, so there are more and more people who got the virus, never developed symptoms and are no longer spreading it. The virus slows as it hits more individual firebreaks that were never tested. We don't know about them, there's no way of counting them.

In the Netherlands they are starting a program to test the blood of all blood donors (which are unpaid volunteers) for antibodies, so as to be able to estimate the spread of the virus in the general population

Q
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 23, 2020, 12:52:55 AM
Is there anyone posting here who lives in an African country? Or has regular contact? I fear that Africa is about to get it in the neck.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 23, 2020, 01:01:07 AM
Thanks, Jeffrey. Watching my son closely - from afar - he is sharing accommodation with three people who had the virus. He even slept with his daughter while she had a raging temperature! He feels fine.

Best of luck!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 23, 2020, 01:13:43 AM
Here’s a present for the more mathematically inclined people here

http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: steve ridgway on March 23, 2020, 05:41:35 AM
Rather not, I'd say. Animals should not eat junk food, let alone plastic...

https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-news/belgium-all-news/science/97811/research-urban-junk-food-diet-is-bad-for-city-birds-microbiota-fibre-gut-bacteria-intestinal-flora/

During a visit to Indonesia (at least 20 years ago) I already saw deer, apes and raccoon like animals scavenge dustbins and plastic garbage bags...

That's an interesting article but I am not going to open up a can of worms by suggesting this could have the slightest relevance to humans :-X.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 23, 2020, 06:57:23 AM

     By monitoring active rather than total cases you can get a handle on the overall shape and trajectory of the pandemic. Italy is slowing. France is seeing a very slight decline. Assuming ongoing expansion of testing this is significant. Turkey, Brazil and Portugal are growing fast. The US is not among the fastest but towards the higher end of the range. Active cases continue to drop in China and S. Korea.

     
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 23, 2020, 07:05:09 AM
Rather not, I'd say. Animals should not eat junk food, let alone plastic...

https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-news/belgium-all-news/science/97811/research-urban-junk-food-diet-is-bad-for-city-birds-microbiota-fibre-gut-bacteria-intestinal-flora/

During a visit to Indonesia (at least 20 years ago) I already saw deer, apes and raccoon like animals scavenge dustbins and plastic garbage bags...

Aye, it just made me think of Kipling.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Ratliff on March 23, 2020, 07:09:16 AM
No one knows what sort of immunity the virus confers - how strongly it protects against immediate reinfection and how long it lasts.

You are right of course, the level of immunity is unknown, although it seems to me there must be strong immunity on the very short term. If your body had freed itself from the virus or its effects you must be immune at that moment, since a newly introduced virus infection will be suppressed along side the resident infection. The question is whether that lasts a day, a week, a month, a year, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Ratliff on March 23, 2020, 07:12:56 AM
Here’s a present for the more mathematically inclined people here

http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

Very interesting, thanks!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: steve ridgway on March 23, 2020, 07:13:16 AM
Aye, it just made me think of Kipling.

Me too.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 23, 2020, 07:24:37 AM
Flying Dutchman time
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/cruise-ship-passengers-stranded-coronavirus/index.html

Refusing to let them disembark is a bit irrational.  If they have been at sea this long with no cased of COVID19, they may the only group of people who can be guaranteed not to have it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 23, 2020, 07:40:21 AM
It's my daughter's birthday but we didn't meet up and communicated by Skype instead. She was having a 'virtual breakfast' with her friend who was born on the same day as she was. Her flat mates (now recovered from corona virus-type symptoms) are cooking for her tonight. I sent her presents in the post and we put some money into her account.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Irons on March 23, 2020, 07:51:45 AM
Best of luck!

Cheers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 23, 2020, 08:01:41 AM
New York’s governor said Sunday that he was exasperated that people are still ignoring his social distancing orders, saying he spent part of the previous day watching people clustering in groups and acting like it was just another nice spring day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 23, 2020, 08:08:48 AM
You are right of course, the level of immunity is unknown, although it seems to me there must be strong immunity on the very short term. If your body had freed itself from the virus or its effects you must be immune at that moment, since a newly introduced virus infection will be suppressed along side the resident infection. The question is whether that lasts a day, a week, a month, a year, etc.

The best analog we have are other Corona viruses. They confer immunity which certainly lasts months. One study showed good immune response a year later BUT undetectable levels of antibodies. So that is ambiguous. Probably booster vaccinations will be needed if that pattern holds for covid 19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 23, 2020, 08:11:24 AM
Broward County*, where I live, is now officially on "only essential services" type of lockdown.  Although the list of exempted services is not exactly essential stuff (car dealerships, lawn maintenance, etc...outdoor work, businesses not directly dealing with the public,  building projects that are currently being worked on seem to be the rationales).  Local stats here: https://wsvn.com/news/local/latest-numbers-1171-covid-19-cases-in-florida-over-500-in-south-florida-alone/

So I am home for work for two weeks (at least), with guaranteed pay for the first week (but my hours were reduced, so that is not as great as it might sound),  decision not yet made about the second week's pay, beyond that completely up in the air.

*For nonFloridians, that's Fort Lauderdale and environs, about 2 million people. We are (per Wikipedia) the 17th most populous county in the US.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 23, 2020, 08:22:54 AM
Car maintenance is pretty important actually, and can mostly be done with good social distancing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 23, 2020, 08:28:57 AM
Car maintenance is pretty important actually, and can mostly be done with good social distancing.

I assumed that, although the exemption seems to include the car sales side.

I probably will avail myself of that. My car is approaching a regular maintenance checkup, and I just got a notice from Toyota about an airbag related recall. Apparently the signal mechanism that would release the air bag in case of accident is not working, so the airbag might not deploy. IOW, the opposite of last year's problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 23, 2020, 08:52:32 AM
     Washington has the lowest rate of change for confirmed cases among all states with 100 or more cases. Missouri has the highest, their total doubled in a single day. There are aspects of curve flattening that are semi-autonomous in that people will behave differently as they see the threat approach them. It's not all what the authorities recommend or enforce. Missouri is the kind of place you would expect to 1) get the virus late and 2) react slowly to information about spread in the hot zones. I expect this gap will close pretty soon.

     "Confirmed" cases is not as useful as "active" cases. A country can have a huge confirmed total while the active total rate of change is dropping.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Ratliff on March 23, 2020, 09:15:19 AM
The best analog we have are other Corona viruses. They confer immunity which certainly lasts months. One study showed good immune response a year later BUT undetectable levels of antibodies. So that is ambiguous. Probably booster vaccinations will be needed if that pattern holds for covid 19.

Presumably long term immunity would be related to "memory" T cells.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 23, 2020, 09:53:56 AM
(https://i.ibb.co/m0qRSzS/Capture.png)


This is the UK system for dealing with critical cases. What pleases me is that the patient's wishes about "ceiling treatment" are taken into account right from the start. Maybe that's obvious if you're a medic but to me it's a relief -- if I develop ARDS I'm not sure I want that treatment, with its risk of some very difficult long term side effects if successful, and great indignity and suffering ending in death if not successful. I may prefer to end my life without the fight. Somewhere deep inside I thought I was strange for thinking like that.  Seeing refusal as a fairly explicit possibility in the NICE process reassures me that I'm not alone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 23, 2020, 10:15:09 AM
It's my daughter's birthday but we didn't meet up and communicated by Skype instead. She was having a 'virtual breakfast' with her friend who was born on the same day as she was. Her flat mates (now recovered from corona virus-type symptoms) are cooking for her tonight. I sent her presents in the post and we put some money into her account.
I'm relieved to hear that things worked out o.k.; I hadn't realized though that her flat mates maybe had it.  Did your daughter self-quarantine when they weren't feeling well?

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 23, 2020, 10:19:21 AM
Speaking of the Olympics:  Canada has now announced that it won't be sending any of its athletes to the games.

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Rinaldo on March 23, 2020, 10:21:07 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/I0472oz.jpg)

So.. death panels?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 23, 2020, 10:29:46 AM
I don’t want to give medical advice but my medical school professor brother in law tells me almost all white people in the northern hemisphere in winter are vitamin D deficient and should supplement. He prescribes a supplement to every patient, and this is in line with the national guidelines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: geralmar on March 23, 2020, 10:32:16 AM
Parking garage, Vanderbilt University Hospital, Nashville, Tennessee:

(https://i.postimg.cc/QM3TLrYy/ETm-Ggo9-Xs-AEMbze.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 23, 2020, 10:35:29 AM
Wow!  That's being proactive!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 23, 2020, 10:37:09 AM
Speaking of the Olympics:  Canada has now announced that it won't be sending any of its athletes to the games.

EDIT:  Australia now too.

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: mc ukrneal on March 23, 2020, 10:44:38 AM
Speaking of the Olympics:  Canada has now announced that it won't be sending any of its athletes to the games.

PD
They've now been postponed...
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 23, 2020, 10:53:27 AM
They've now been postponed...
Not surprised to hear this...still sad though.

I wonder whether or not Federer will still be playing tennis then and wanting to compete for Switzerland when they do next hold it?

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 23, 2020, 11:22:55 AM
I'm relieved to hear that things worked out o.k.; I hadn't realized though that her flat mates maybe had it.  Did your daughter self-quarantine when they weren't feeling well?

PD
Thanks PD.
Yes, she did.
She works from home anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 23, 2020, 11:52:42 AM

     Massachusetts is tightening restrictions. Governor of the Universe Charlie Baker is on the case. At Trader Joe's today we had to wait in line to get in and use hand wipes.

     We bag our own groceries with our own bags. The main thing is we got our tamales and refried beans, crucial for survival. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/smiley.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 23, 2020, 12:03:41 PM
Does your mail have to be quarantined? (https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/23/nation/does-your-mail-have-be-quarantined/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 23, 2020, 12:07:36 PM
I don’t want to give medical advice but my medical school professor brother in law tells me almost all white people in the northern hemisphere in winter are vitamin D deficient and should supplement. He prescribes a supplement to every patient, and this is in line with the national guidelines.
What kind of amounts does he suggest?  Any idea?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 23, 2020, 12:14:17 PM
What kind of amounts does he suggest?  Any idea?
Any pill form. Some multivitamins have D but not all have the full RDA. D pills are cheap at the drug store.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 23, 2020, 12:29:07 PM
Oscal and some other calcium supplements include Vitamin D.

IIRC the basic non-pill recommendation is to sit in the sunshine for 15 minutes.  But that has to balanced against the risk for skin cancer.

https://www.yalemedicine.org/stories/vitamin-d-myths-debunked/

And

https://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/vitamin-d-and-your-health-breaking-old-rules-raising-new-hopes
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Daverz on March 23, 2020, 12:35:54 PM
I don’t want to give medical advice but my medical school professor brother in law tells me almost all white people in the northern hemisphere in winter are vitamin D deficient and should supplement. He prescribes a supplement to every patient, and this is in line with the national guidelines.

Thanks for the advice.  You know you are already isolated indoors when a lockdown during a pandemic seems like only a minor deviation from your usual routine.  I do have some canned tuna, which apparently does have vitamin D in it.






Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 23, 2020, 01:12:38 PM
My ("stupidly-expensive multivitamin"--a term borrowed from one of my doctors!) has above the recommended amount, but is low in calcium...thankfully, I like my dairy, greens, and sometimes eat nuts (should go back to snacking on things like almonds).  I am trying to get outside more during the wintertime...found a place that I like to walk/hike (and when doing REALLY well...jog along).  Am trying my best not to get too close to others whilst on the trail (or take one of the alternate mini-trails).

JBS and all, thank you for the links and suggestions.

And, Dave, you (unless there is some medical reason) really need to get outside more!  It'll cheer you up....fresh air, some sunshine...plants, birds...all good.   :)  Just mind the people.

Best,

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: greg on March 23, 2020, 01:53:14 PM
Does your mail have to be quarantined? (https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/23/nation/does-your-mail-have-be-quarantined/)
The only comment on that article is great.

"What about the Boston Globe paper? I think that would hold the virus for a while."

  :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: 71 dB on March 23, 2020, 02:10:23 PM
Does your mail have to be quarantined? (https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/23/nation/does-your-mail-have-be-quarantined/)

I guess if you mail-order some Corona Beer...  :P
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Daverz on March 23, 2020, 02:11:46 PM
And, Dave, you (unless there is some medical reason) really need to get outside more!  It'll cheer you up....fresh air, some sunshine...plants, birds...all good.   :)  Just mind the people.

Best,

PD

Thanks PD.  The funny thing is that the line about  "You know you're already isolated..." was from my nephew, who is a lot more outgoing than me. 

Yeah, the only thing to avoid outside are those... people...

There's also a bit of sun on the edge of my balcony if I get out there about now...

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 23, 2020, 02:15:55 PM
The only comment on that article is great.

"What about the Boston Globe paper? I think that would hold the virus for a while."

  :D

I know, hard to believe what is true these days....too much info and too much of it conflicting!  Personally, that would be the least of my concerns (getting it from my mail).  My thoughts personally:  wash your hands often and well and try your best not to touch your eyes, nose, and mouths...mind your local laws, be polite when shopping for supplies, and try to remember to do your best to keep your distances from other folks but it's o.k (and I think good) to be kind and friendly to others (helps to lower everybody's stress).

And be nice to your letter carrier.   ;) :)

Best,

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 23, 2020, 02:20:35 PM
     
     Could Blood from Coronavirus Victims Help the Sick? (https://www.thedailybeast.com/could-blood-from-coronavirus-victims-help-the-covid-19-sick?ref=home)

As Casadevall pointed out in his Wall Street Journal piece, one of the earliest uses of convalescent plasma involved a school physician in the 1930s using blood serum from those who had recovered from measles on dozens of schoolchildren, only three of whom later developed mild cases of the disease.

More recently—and more relevant to the current outbreak—doctors also used passive antibody therapy during the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome or SARS epidemic. In a very small study, doctors in Taiwan treated three patients suffering from severe cases of SARS—a virus from the same family as COVID-19—with convalescent plasma from the recovered and found that all three, who had failed to respond to previous treatments, survived.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 23, 2020, 02:20:41 PM
Thanks PD.  The funny thing is that the line about  "You know you're already isolated..." was from my nephew, who is a lot more outgoing than me. 

Yeah, the only thing to avoid outside are those... people...

There's also a bit of sun on the edge of my balcony if I get out there about now...

 
  Balcony sounds nice!  And it's a good start too.   ;)  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Daverz on March 23, 2020, 02:27:58 PM
I guess if you mail-order some Corona Beer...  :P

Just got my snail mail and made sure I did the 20 second hand wash afterward...

I also got a DoorDash delivery of beer from a local brewery earlier (Karl Strauss; delicious).  It's really hard to get Amazon Fresh deliveries right now (hint: have your cart ready to go and check out at midnight), Instacart is impossible, but DoorDash seems fairly easy, probably because it's so expensive.

Interesting that beer is the only thing that never seems to go out of stock.  Probably because we are awash in grain and malt from American agriculture.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 23, 2020, 05:27:45 PM
If you are from the New York area, don't plan on being welcomed to Florida
https://wsvn.com/news/local/gov-desantis-orders-new-york-area-travelers-to-quarantine/
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 24, 2020, 01:36:39 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/24/older-people-would-rather-die-than-let-covid-19-lockdown-harm-us-economy-texas-official-dan-patrick

Quote
“ Older people would rather die than let Covid-19 harm US economy – Texas official
Lieutenant governor Dan Patrick tells Fox News: ‘Do we have to shut down the entire country for this? I think we can get back to work’

Patrick, a Texas Republican, praised the president’s focus on the economy on Monday and said that it had “lifted” his heart.

“I don’t want the whole country to be sacrificed,” Patrick said. “I’ve talked to hundreds of people … and everyone says pretty much the same thing: We can’t lose our whole country. We’re having an economic collapse.”

“We’re going to be in a total collapse, recession, depression, collapse in our society if this goes on for another several months,” Patrick said. “As the president said, the mortality rate is so low. Do we have to shut down the entire country for this? I think we can get back to work.”

Patrick said that, as someone who turns 70 next week, he was in the high-risk group, but that he was willing to give up his life for his six grandchildren.

“Look, I’m going to do everything I can do to live,” Patrick said. “But if you said, are you willing to take a chance … If I get sick, I’ll go and try to get better, but if I don’t, I don’t.”



When I was a graduate student I knew people who were working on Public Service Strategy, Politics and International Relations who would have models to quantify financially the value of a life, and I guess where you have to make these huge decisions, that’s what’s needed. How else are you to decide what to do rationally?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Que on March 24, 2020, 01:37:49 AM
In the Netherlands additional measures were announced, mainly to prevent people from congregating. Though people are still not locked up in their homes like in Spain or Italy.

The most significant and element however, was that the duration of all measures was extended to the 1st of June.
Two more month of this, is going to be though on individual people and on the economy.

Q
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 24, 2020, 01:41:15 AM
Oh for fuck’s sake, I can’t think about this, I’m going to listen to a Haydn piano trio.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Que on March 24, 2020, 02:18:27 AM
Oh for fuck’s sake, I can’t think about this, I’m going to listen to a Haydn piano trio.

Excellent idea.  :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: milk on March 24, 2020, 02:49:36 AM
Summary of the article:
Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 (https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56)
I’m worried about where I am: Japan. If Japan escapes disaster, it will be seen as an outlier and a “miracle case.” I hope so but I’m very skeptical. Yes Japanese wear masks routinely. Yes they don’t shake hands. Yes they closed schools and attractions. But there’s been no social distancing here, no playground or restaurant or shopping mall closures. People are going to work and have been all along  :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Que on March 24, 2020, 03:30:02 AM
Summary of the article:
Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 (https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56)


A very interesting analysis! I read through the entire thing.

It does make me very, very worried about developing (underdeveloped) countries: with their weak governments, overpopulated slums, and weak health care systems, it would for them be a enormous challenge to supress the outbreak of the virus and nearly impossible to contain it afterwards....

Like any crisis, this will hit the weakest the hardest.

Q
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: mc ukrneal on March 24, 2020, 03:42:08 AM
Re: vitamins etc - this was advice from a doctor friend.

If you can find it, he recommended, Quinine, usually to be found in combination with bioperine, astralgus root, vitamin C, echinacea purpurea and zinc.

If you can't find it (like me!) Vitamin D and C together should be helpful. You need a good quality (Solgar) Vitamin D tablet (1450 mg) and a high dosage (Solgar) Vitamin C tablet (1000mg). Take them for three days after a meal (one capsule of each). Your body will then have more resistance against the virus. It does not mean that you won't get it but you should be able to fight it off better. From then on take one capsule of each every three days.

Make sure that none of this interferes with existing medication.

VERY IMPORTANT: Only use Paracetomol as a pain killer (all the others, ibuprofen, nurofen etc make it easier for the coronavirus to enter your body). DO NOT USE THEM!

Hope that helps.
I would be careful about giving medical advice on a forum. What you are writing does not entirely match what I have read about the virus, so I would be doubly careful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: pjme on March 24, 2020, 03:44:24 AM

VERY IMPORTANT: Only use Paracetomol as a pain killer (all the others, ibuprofen, nurofen etc make it easier for the coronavirus to enter your body). DO NOT USE THEM!

Afaik, nobody seems to be really certain about the use of Ibuprofen.
From the BBC:
Stories have been circulating online suggesting it's dangerous to take ibuprofen if you have coronavirus. Alongside genuine medical advice, false messages have been spreading, distorting the facts.

Speaking to the BBC, medical professionals said that ibuprofen is not recommended for managing coronavirus symptoms.

The NHS says that, while "there is currently no strong evidence that ibuprofen can make coronavirus (Covid-19) worse, until we have more information take paracetamol to treat the symptoms of coronavirus, unless your doctor has told you paracetamol is not suitable for you."

Those already taking ibuprofen for other conditions should not stop without consulting a doctor, though.

Both paracetamol and ibuprofen can bring a temperature down and help with flu-like symptoms. But ibuprofen and other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are not suitable for everyone and can cause side-effects - especially for people with asthma, heart and circulatory problems.

The NHS website previously recommended both paracetamol and ibuprofen, but has since changed its advice.

There is also some evidence linking ibuprofen to more severe illness from other respiratory infections.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 24, 2020, 03:56:25 AM
If you can't find it (like me!) Vitamin D and C together should be helpful. You need a good quality (Solgar) Vitamin D tablet (1450 mg) and a high dosage (Solgar) Vitamin C tablet (1000mg). Take them for three days after a meal (one capsule of each). Your body will then have more resistance against the virus. It does not mean that you won't get it but you should be able to fight it off better. From then on take one capsule of each every three days.

OBS;OBS: What is this? The daily need of D-vitamin is in the range of 10 micrograms - elderly people maybe twice as much, so tablets containing
1450 mg sound like heavy overdosing, which may be harmful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 24, 2020, 05:05:28 AM
Re: My earlier message about vitamins please see below:

'I clearly stated that the body needs to be saturated. We are not talking about a proper dose, we are talking about protection against the effects of Coronavirus.
That means no more than for 3 days, 1 D capsule in this dose and one C capsule, after that 1 capsule of D & C every three days.

I only stated in my advice what is widely known as a deterrent against some of the effects of Corona, but it is not a cure.
Medical conditions of patients have to be taken in consideration in regard to the D vitamin.'

This is from a doctor but I agree that it is best to seek your own medical advice. My reason for posting was because some GMG members were asking for advice about vitamins and I had, coincidentally just received such advice and thought that it might be helpful to share it.

But you must have got something wrong, and this is why you ought not to give advices like this.

Only one of the D vitamin tablets you mention contains a toxic dose for a human being, even if we suppose, that the tablets are 1450 micrograms and not 1450 milligrams as you write. 1450 milligrams is a so monstrous high dose, that I doubt tablets with this dose exists.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 24, 2020, 05:20:26 AM
The most significant and element however, was that the duration of all measures was extended to the 1st of June..

This is at least more realistic than the actually declared duration we see in some other countries, my own being among them. And even then the measures may probably have to become extended still more.

I wish the best for you and also for all the other Duch posters here including Marc, Harry, Traverso and Herman.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 24, 2020, 05:49:56 AM
But you must have got something wrong, and this is why you ought not to give advices like this.

Only one of the D vitamin tablets you mention contains a toxic dose for a human being, even if we suppose, that the tablets are 1450 micrograms and not 1450 milligrams as you write. 1450 milligrams is a so monstrous high dose, that I doubt tablets with this dose exists.

Hi,

I've now deleted all my posts related to vitamin advice.

A good example, I think, of the maxim that no good deed (or at least no well-intentioned deed) ever goes unpunished.

All strength to you all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 24, 2020, 05:54:28 AM
Hi,

I've now deleted all my posts related to vitamin advice.

A good example, I think, of the maxim that no good deed (or at least no well-intentioned deed) ever goes unpunished.

All strength to you all.

In these days of the Disinformation Superhighway, a little filtration behooves us all.

+1 for the warm wishes to all our Dutch neighbors!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 24, 2020, 05:56:33 AM
Hi,

I've now deleted all my posts related to vitamin advice.

A good example, I think, of the maxim that no good deed (or at least no well-intentioned deed) ever goes unpunished.

All strength to you all.

My intention is not to punish you, but I just had to react to you D vitamin advice (now deleted) above.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 24, 2020, 05:59:39 AM
My intention is not to punish you, but I just had to react to you D vitamin advice (now deleted) above.
Fair enough. I understand that.
My best wishes to you too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 24, 2020, 06:02:43 AM
Fair enough. I understand that.
My best wishes to you too.

Thanks, the same to you.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 24, 2020, 06:03:37 AM
And, Jeffrey, I see the headline "a man thought aquarium cleaner with the same name as the anti-viral drug chloroquine would prevent Coronavirus. It killed him."
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 24, 2020, 06:05:15 AM
And, Jeffrey, I see the headline "a man thought aquarium cleaner with the same name as the anti-viral drug chloroquine would prevent Coronavirus. It killed him."

He probably drank chlorine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 24, 2020, 06:12:55 AM

     I lost my active cases measure. WaPo is now using "confirmed cases" for countries, a number that only goes positive. They only did confirmed cases for the US and its states.

     
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 24, 2020, 06:17:21 AM
Just got my snail mail and made sure I did the 20 second hand wash afterward...

I also got a DoorDash delivery of beer from a local brewery earlier (Karl Strauss; delicious).  It's really hard to get Amazon Fresh deliveries right now (hint: have your cart ready to go and check out at midnight), Instacart is impossible, but DoorDash seems fairly easy, probably because it's so expensive.

Interesting that beer is the only thing that never seems to go out of stock.  Probably because we are awash in grain and malt from American agriculture.
I'm not sure whether or not I mentioned this on this thread, but I've seen some articles and via t.v. that some distilleries are now making hand sanitizer and giving it out for free to people like firefighters, policemen, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 24, 2020, 06:17:39 AM
And, Jeffrey, I see the headline "a man thought aquarium cleaner with the same name as the anti-viral drug chloroquine would prevent Coronavirus. It killed him."

My daughter's friend has stock-piled custard, which seems a sensible medical precaution Karl.
 8)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 24, 2020, 06:22:28 AM
My daughter's friend has stock-piled custard, which seems a sensible medical precaution Karl.
 8)


I have no quarrel with that, old dear!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 24, 2020, 06:22:56 AM
He probably drank chlorine.

Indeed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 24, 2020, 06:23:17 AM
I have no quarrel with that, old dear!
:)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: greg on March 24, 2020, 06:29:06 AM
People waiting for the checks and look what's going on. Seriously?  ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 24, 2020, 07:02:54 AM
People waiting for the checks and look what's going on. Seriously?  ::)

     I'm seriously looking at what's going on. I think Denmark has it right. If you want the economy to be able to pick up where it left off when the worst is over, you have to pay people not to work, and pay small businesses to stay closed for the duration. That way, we'll all get through this mess and have something to look forward to. There is no other case, this is the case. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/smiley.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 24, 2020, 07:04:41 AM
Read today an article that foresees major budgetary problems (and eventual bankruptcy) for countries dependent on tourism and oil price.

Countries like Spain and Portugal get about 10% of their GDP from tourism. Mexico is heavily dependent on income from oil. Its national budget factors in a 49$US price per barrel. Current prices hare half that and not expected to go up because of price war (Saudi Arabia Vs Russia) and falling global demand. To make matters worse, 8.6% of its GDP depends on tourism. And to top it all off, President Lopez Obrador enjoins his people to go out and have fun. ???

It is predicted that Saudi Arabia could be bankrupt within a few years, as Russia has a far more diversified economy. Price war could hold prices down for years. Both countries have 500 billions$ in foreign currency reserves, which is not all that much considering that the Saudis’ lifestyle and expenditures (including military expenses) depend on an oil price of 80$US. The difference must be borrowed. If you have only one source of income and you mismanage it, who will lend you money?

Irak, Lybia, Congo depend on oil revenue for 38% of their budget. The pandemia could become an economic one if countries become unsolvent. ‘Rich’ countries hold trillions in foreign debt, which are counted as assets in their balance sheet. They’re not really expecting repayment any time soon, but writing off assets deteriorates the financial picture and can lead to higher interest rates.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 24, 2020, 07:04:57 AM
I read that 20,000 to 40,000 “locked down” New Yorkers are arriving in Florida every day. Can this be right?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 24, 2020, 07:22:59 AM
     I'm seriously looking at what's going on. I think Denmark has it right. If you want the economy to be able to pick up where it left off when the worst is over, you have to pay people not to work, and pay small businesses to stay closed for the duration. That way, we'll all get through this mess and have something to look forward to. There is no other case, this is the case. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/smiley.gif)

I certainly agree with you. Probably our government needs to increase the tax burden soon to be able to pay for all this. And we all have to contribute. Fortunately we stick together in a situation like this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: greg on March 24, 2020, 07:24:43 AM
I read that 20,000 to 40,000 “locked down” New Yorkers are arriving in Florida every day. Can this be right?
This sounds like a typical winter day in Florida. So yeah.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Ratliff on March 24, 2020, 07:25:38 AM
I read that 20,000 to 40,000 “locked down” New Yorkers are arriving in Florida every day. Can this be right?

Rules vary in the different states, but "shelter at home" does not forbid you traveling to another home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: mc ukrneal on March 24, 2020, 07:31:05 AM
I read that 20,000 to 40,000 “locked down” New Yorkers are arriving in Florida every day. Can this be right?
Supposedly, 190 flights yesterday. Apparently though, anyone who comes is supposed to self-quarantine for 14 days (and they are being met on at the gates and such) as per an executive order from Florida's governor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 24, 2020, 07:32:13 AM
Starting tomorrow 6:00 AM Romania gets into total lockdown. We'll be allowed to leave our homes only for going to work (those who cannot work at home or who haven't already lost their jobs or been sent into forced paid unemployment) or to buy food and drugs and we must carry a written statement about where we go. Police, gendarmerie and the army will patrol the streets.

Latest update: 762 cases, 8 deaths, 74 cured.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 24, 2020, 07:34:32 AM
     I'm seriously looking at what's going on. I think Denmark has it right. If you want the economy to be able to pick up where it left off when the worst is over, you have to pay people not to work, and pay small businesses to stay closed for the duration. That way, we'll all get through this mess and have something to look forward to. There is no other case, this is the case. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/smiley.gif)

I basically agree. I don’t know about the third world, but the first world countries are rich enough to forego a few weeks production of most stuff as long as there is no resulting economic chaos, like people losing homes or business liquidating. The way to prevent that is bridge financing of some sort from the government. Yes we will have to pay for it later. Cheap at the price. Fortunately most countries seem to see that. But it will be all for nought if the Americans don’t, but I think after the usual posturing crap they will.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 24, 2020, 07:36:15 AM
Starting tomorrow 6:00 AM Romania gets into total lockdown. We'll be allowed to leave our homes only for going to work (those who cannot work at home or who haven't already lost their jobs or been sent into forced paid unemployment) or to buy food and drugs and we must carry a written statement about where we go. Police, gendarmerie and the army will patrol the streets.

Latest update: 762 cases, 8 deaths, 74 cured.

Warm thoughts!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 24, 2020, 07:42:11 AM
Rules vary in the different states, but "shelter at home" does not forbid you traveling to another home.

How about you. Can you realize to move April 2. ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 24, 2020, 07:50:09 AM
Warm thoughts!

To you too --- and to all GMGers wherever they are! Stay safe and cheer up, all this madness will pass, let's hope rather sooner than later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 24, 2020, 07:50:56 AM
I basically agree. I don’t know about the third world, but the first world countries are rich enough to forego a few weeks production of most stuff as long as there is no resulting economic chaos, like people losing homes or business liquidating. The way to prevent that is bridge financing of some sort from the government. Yes we will have to pay for it later. Cheap at the price. Fortunately most countries seem to see that. But it will be all for nought if the Americans don’t, but I think after the usual posturing crap they will.

    No, if we act responsibly "later" will be better able to pay for itself. That's the whole point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 24, 2020, 07:55:00 AM
I certainly agree with you. Probably our government needs to increase the tax burden soon to be able to pay for all this.

     That would be insane. You are disagreeing with me. The government has to net spend far greater than it is. What would be the point of clawing it back?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 24, 2020, 07:55:28 AM
Everybody stay safe... I wish you all the best.

I myself am kinda locking myself in my apartment… only leaving once a week for shopping.
Trying to walk and dance a little in my room. Doing some push-ups. Sitting on the balcony, to enjoy some sunshine.

I'm able to work at home, but my working contract ends on April 30 though.
Spoke to my current employer on the phone: prospects of a new contract aren't all that good. Too bad.

Well, back to dancing in me room again. With me headphones on.
Don't wanna infect me neighbours, don't wanna annoy them either.
Uhhh… Bach or Bowie?

No, wait: MADONNA.

For you, to justify my love.

This will turn into a great work-out. Gonna make me sweat for sure.

Y'all hang on, wherever you are!

:-*
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 24, 2020, 08:04:37 AM

     My co-conspirator does her YT Tony Clifton thing. I can hear her laughing and I know what shes doing, boosting her antibodies. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/smiley.gif)

     (https://ewedit.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/tony-clifton.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 24, 2020, 08:10:43 AM
    No, if we act responsibly "later" will be better able to pay for itself. That's the whole point.

I am not interested in debating monetary theory. I think we agree on the policy: If we don’t prevent disruption the result will be very bad. (That is actually the whole point.) That involves government financing now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 24, 2020, 08:17:24 AM
Warm thoughts!
From me too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 24, 2020, 08:29:33 AM
India declares nationwide lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 24, 2020, 08:30:41 AM
I am not interested in debating monetary theory. I think we agree on the policy: If we don’t prevent disruption the result will be very bad. (That is actually the whole point.) That involves government financing now.

     Agreements don't just happen. If we both know what must be done, something told us. You have good reasons to be sure about the need for government action, even if you don't want to debate them. I have an idea that if people rendered explicit their ideas about what is needed and why, we wouldn't have to reinvent the wheel every time there's a crisis.

     
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 24, 2020, 08:34:16 AM
India declares nationwide lockdown.
Denialists tell me India is safe because it’s hotter ...

Perhaps I should make a post listing some of the deranged arguments I have been rebutting on another site. Or perhaps not. You wouldn’t believe me.

Update. Scariest example:

Him: why didn’t we lockdown for H1N1?
Me: we had a vaccine.
Him: so what?

I paraphrase but that really was the gist.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 24, 2020, 08:40:35 AM
     That would be insane. You are disagreeing with me. The government has to net spend far greater than it is. What would be the point of clawing it back?

When the crisis is over and all again works and earn their money, they will have to accept a lower standard of living, at least for some time in order to pay for all the expenditures during the crisis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 24, 2020, 08:47:26 AM
When the crisis is over and all again works and earn their money, they will have to accept a lower standard of living, at least for some time in order to pay for all the expenditures during the crisis.

     I don't think that will last very long if we preserve small businesses that employ about 50% of the workers. The tax return will grow as the economy grows, but trying to tax back the increase in national debt would be just as bad a taxing back the debt we already have. We don't do that, so we still won't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 24, 2020, 08:54:08 AM
Rules vary in the different states, but "shelter at home" does not forbid you traveling to another home.

Miami is a 20 hour drive from New-York. You have to refuel 2-3 times (insert card, keypunch your PIN number, take the nozzle), get inside for 2 coffees, pay in cash etc. Check in at the motel, get the door key/card from the attendant, use facilities, get out for lunch etc. Then you get to your condo, fridge is empty, drive to the grocery to replenish, talk to Harry and Dorothy from the bridge club, get the local newspaper from the mailbox... That’s a lot of contacts with potentially infected surfaces or persons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Irons on March 24, 2020, 08:56:01 AM
It does make you wonder if someone up there is shaking a fist at us. A depressing dank grey winter, rainfall breaking all records and floods ruining homes and businesses. Our PM informs us gravely that we must stay in our homes and not venture out, and what happens? The sun comes out, the sky is blue and the hottest March day since God knows when!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 24, 2020, 08:56:05 AM
India declares nationwide lockdown.

It'll be interesting to see how they enforce that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 24, 2020, 09:00:14 AM

     It's a nice day where I am, so if I want I can go sit on the front porch and theorize at the Cowcat when he comes by. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/cheesy.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 24, 2020, 09:28:28 AM
It'll be interesting to see how they enforce that.

Yeah. Enforcement is a dead end really. It’s not like you are closing off a particular place for a set time.  You need persuasion and peer pressure and social norms or it will just fall apart quickly.
This is why I fight the denialists online (my wife thinks it a waste). We need voluntary compliance and self control.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 24, 2020, 09:59:06 AM
Yeah. Enforcement is a dead end really. It’s not like you are closing off a particular place for a set time.  You need persuasion and peer pressure and social norms or it will just fall apart quickly.
This is why I fight the denialists online (my wife thinks it a waste). We need voluntary compliance and self control.

I presume most if not all denialists are also anti-vaxers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: BasilValentine on March 24, 2020, 10:05:10 AM
I don't have any neighbors I can see so I've been out every day on the local mountain without breaking isolation protocols. But rejoice my droogs, the cure is here:



Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Ratliff on March 24, 2020, 10:08:50 AM
How about you. Can you realize to move April 2. ?

All indications are that the answer is yes. Nothing is certain at this point, but it looks like Trump has lost his taste for anti-virus measures, and that imposition of travel restrictions is less likely. I think worst case is they will make be self-quaranteen for 14 days when I get there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Ratliff on March 24, 2020, 10:18:43 AM
Miami is a 20 hour drive from New-York. You have to refuel 2-3 times (insert card, keypunch your PIN number, take the nozzle), get inside for 2 coffees, pay in cash etc. Check in at the motel, get the door key/card from the attendant, use facilities, get out for lunch etc. Then you get to your condo, fridge is empty, drive to the grocery to replenish, talk to Harry and Dorothy from the bridge club, get the local newspaper from the mailbox... That’s a lot of contacts with potentially infected surfaces or persons.

I sold my house in California 6 weeks ago (deal just being finalized) after being laid off. I have a new job and a new home in Texas. It would make sense to forbid me to travel, so I could live on the street in California? Nonessential travel may be prohibited (vacationing, etc). Essential travel, i.e. travel necessary to return home to perform essential (allowed) work functions is not prohibited. I don't know what fraction of New Yorkers traveling to Florida would properly qualify as essential.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 24, 2020, 10:20:43 AM
[…] But rejoice my droogs, the cure is here:

Rockin' good news! :blank:
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 24, 2020, 10:23:33 AM
Here is a verbatim exchange I just had
Quote

Quote
So contrary to what the experts are telling us, we need more tests and more testing.

No, that’s not contrary to what the experts are saying. It is exactly what the experts are saying. The problem is we haven’t had enough test kits. We are getting more, but still don’t have enough. No one disputes testing and targeted isolation is the better response. It is physically impossible at this moment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 24, 2020, 10:30:38 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/24/us-may-become-centre-of-coronavirus-pandemic-who-says
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: "Harry" on March 24, 2020, 10:58:04 AM
OBS;OBS: What is this? The daily need of D-vitamin is in the range of 10 micrograms - elderly people maybe twice as much, so tablets containing
1450 mg sound like heavy overdosing, which may be harmful.

What Jeffrey meant was this dear Poul


Cod Liver oil in substance.
Ingredients:
Formula 1450 mg, take a few or less micrograms.
Is: Omega III, fish oil, TG 1400mg, Recommended intake 2000mg, EPA 252 mg, and DHA 168 mg.
Fish oil 50 mg, recommended intake 50 mg.
Vitamin A 3000 ug, recommended intake, 3000 ug.
Vitamin D 75 ug, recommended intake 75 ug.


Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 24, 2020, 11:14:16 AM
I don't know what fraction of New Yorkers traveling to Florida would properly qualify as essential.

Speaking as a Floridian: the answer to that is zero.

GMGers from New York would be the sole exception.

Seriously though (and linking to enforcement), I don't know how DeSantis expects that order to be carried out, where they are supposed to be be housed or fed, and who makes sure they stay quarantined.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: greg on March 24, 2020, 11:25:59 AM
India declares nationwide lockdown.
This seems to be causing issues for some people at work that are unable to log in from home. 🤔
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Ratliff on March 24, 2020, 11:27:03 AM
Seriously though (and linking to enforcement), I don't know how DeSantis expects that order to be carried out, where they are supposed to be be housed or fed, and who makes sure they stay quarantined.

If you want to involuntarily quarantine people you need resources to enforce and feed them. China has a massive security state and they could do that. In the U.S., not clear.

In my small California town social isolation seems pretty effective. Any nonessential place you could go is closed. The only activities available are walks/hikes in parks. One park was closed because officials decided it was too crowded for effective social distancing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 24, 2020, 11:45:12 AM
All indications are that the answer is yes. Nothing is certain at this point, but it looks like Trump has lost his taste for anti-virus measures, and that imposition of travel restrictions is less likely. I think worst case is they will make be self-quaranteen for 14 days when I get there.

That's good to hear. I wish you an uncomplicated moving.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 24, 2020, 11:56:12 AM
What Jeffrey meant was this dear Poul


Cod Liver oil in substance.
Ingredients:
Formula 1450 mg, take a few or less micrograms.
Is: Omega III, fish oil, TG 1400mg, Recommended intake 2000mg, EPA 252 mg, and DHA 168 mg.
Fish oil 50 mg, recommended intake 50 mg.
Vitamin A 3000 ug, recommended intake, 3000 ug.
Vitamin D 75 ug, recommended intake 75 ug.

Yes, and this makes sense. But Jeffrey's post was right out confusing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 24, 2020, 12:02:06 PM
No, that’s not contrary to what the experts are saying. It is exactly what the experts are saying. The problem is we haven’t had enough test kits. We are getting more, but still don’t have enough. No one disputes testing and targeted isolation is the better response. It is physically impossible at this moment.

The most important reason, why testing has lacked behind in my country Denmark, is shortage of test kits. It is true, that the experts not always agree on which measures to take, but our government wants more testing in accordance with the recommendations of WHO.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 24, 2020, 12:05:57 PM
     I don't think that will last very long if we preserve small businesses that employ about 50% of the workers. The tax return will grow as the economy grows, but trying to tax back the increase in national debt would be just as bad a taxing back the debt we already have. We don't do that, so we still won't.

I hope you are right. If our national debt increases too much, I fear the result will become more inflation, and that would not be a good thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 24, 2020, 01:07:56 PM
Speaking as a Floridian: the answer to that is zero.

GMGers from New York would be the sole exception.

Seriously though (and linking to enforcement), I don't know how DeSantis expects that order to be carried out, where they are supposed to be be housed or fed, and who makes sure they stay quarantined.
The governor also included New Jersey and Connecticut in his decision.

Personally, I have some friends who own a second home in Florida who have been there for a number of months already.  They also rent it out other times during the year; I expect that it might impact them...how much, I don't know.  They've decided to hunker down there for a while...not certain how long.  Wonder whether or not there might be problems at some point when they want to drive back home?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 24, 2020, 01:24:15 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/24/us-may-become-centre-of-coronavirus-pandemic-who-says

Especially with the Wankmaggot Dotard gassing about "wanting to open up the economy."
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 24, 2020, 02:17:05 PM
     President volunteers to be "first over the top" in fight to restore economy

    "I'm ready to make the ultimate sacrifice", said the germophobe septuagenarian.

     
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 24, 2020, 02:41:02 PM
As ever Trump's mouth leaves something to be desired. But it is correct to be planning for a (staged) end to the quarantine. It is also correct to be planning for an extension. I expect there are civil servants and experts at work on both. And more. No trigger has been pulled, no decision made. We will know a lot more in two or three weeks. So will Trump. I think absent reliable testing no one can know, today, what the right course is.

Trump, Trudeau, Macron, and the rest are like hockey players try to play two pucks at once, outbreak and economic collapse. You cannot expect them to play both like Wayne Gretzky. I loathe the current leader of my country, but I will cut him some slack until I know something concrete.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 24, 2020, 03:01:14 PM
'Coughing while Asian': living in fear as racism feeds off coronavirus panic (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/24/coronavirus-us-asian-americans-racism)

"When Rosalind Chou was on a flight at the end of February, she saw a woman in front of her raise her phone up high, as if taking a selfie. The woman snapped a picture and sent it to a friend, whose reply showed up in big font on the woman’s phone: “Oh no, is he Chinese?”

Across the aisle from Chou was a man she later learned is Korean American and a woman sitting next to him, also of Asian descent. The woman quickly replied to her friend: “There’s a lot of them. Pray for me.”

Chou knows her experience was not an anomaly. Across the US, Chinese Americans, and other Asians, are increasingly living in fear as the coronavirus spreads across the country amid racial prejudice that the outbreak is somehow the fault of China. It is a fear grounded in racism, but also promoted from the White House as Donald Trump – and his close advisers – insist on calling it “the Chinese virus”. [...]
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 24, 2020, 04:39:35 PM

     The latest numbers show NY state cases growing slightly slower than Florida (since Sunday 63% to 70%). Probably traveling is less safe than staying put for everyone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 24, 2020, 04:57:00 PM
'Coughing while Asian': living in fear as racism feeds off coronavirus panic (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/24/coronavirus-us-asian-americans-racism)

"When Rosalind Chou was on a flight at the end of February, she saw a woman in front of her raise her phone up high, as if taking a selfie. The woman snapped a picture and sent it to a friend, whose reply showed up in big font on the woman’s phone: “Oh no, is he Chinese?”

Across the aisle from Chou was a man she later learned is Korean American and a woman sitting next to him, also of Asian descent. The woman quickly replied to her friend: “There’s a lot of them. Pray for me.”

Chou knows her experience was not an anomaly. Across the US, Chinese Americans, and other Asians, are increasingly living in fear as the coronavirus spreads across the country amid racial prejudice that the outbreak is somehow the fault of China. It is a fear grounded in racism, but also promoted from the White House as Donald Trump – and his close advisers – insist on calling it “the Chinese virus”. [...]

Meanwhile the President of Liberty University was on Fox declaring that the Chinese Marxists had unleashed the virus and planned to make use of it in their quest for world dominance, while Tucker Carlson started off his show with a slightly less hysterical tone but just as clear about the peril of China overtaking the US and reducing it to second place....
Neither one actually said it was a plot by China, but the Liberty U guy came closest to saying that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 24, 2020, 04:58:32 PM
Meanwhile...
Playwright Terrance McNally has died from COVID19 in a Florida hospital.
https://apnews.com/c922f464b78cde81e0780346ca10b167
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Ratliff on March 24, 2020, 05:17:11 PM
...Tucker Carlson started off his show with a slightly less hysterical tone but just as clear about the peril of China overtaking the US and reducing it to second place...

I think it is inevitable that China will overtake the US by many measures of economic and scientific dominance. The Covid-19 pandemic may be one of the things the propels them forward, if they manage to contain it while the US succumbs to the full force of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 24, 2020, 05:52:48 PM
Thoughts on reopening and testing  https://reason.com/2020/03/24/massive-coronavirus-testing-is-the-way-to-help-save-the-economy/ (https://reason.com/2020/03/24/massive-coronavirus-testing-is-the-way-to-help-save-the-economy/)

It’s not often you see the Washington Post and Reason magazine agree.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Ratliff on March 24, 2020, 08:12:09 PM
Thoughts on reopening and testing  https://reason.com/2020/03/24/massive-coronavirus-testing-is-the-way-to-help-save-the-economy/ (https://reason.com/2020/03/24/massive-coronavirus-testing-is-the-way-to-help-save-the-economy/)

It’s not often you see the Washington Post and Reason magazine agree.

These tests require PCR machines, which are expensive and if you want to buy one you are normally told there is a three month wait, since the machines are basically made to order. What they suggest that every PCR machine in the country, in University Labs, NIH research labs, National Cancer Institute Labs, etc, be commandeered and pressed into service running Covid-19 tests, with graduate students, postdocs, professors, etc, suspending their research running the tests around the clock. I've heard worse ideas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 24, 2020, 08:46:15 PM
Meanwhile the President of Liberty University was on Fox declaring that the Chinese Marxists had unleashed the virus and planned to make use of it in their quest for world dominance, while Tucker Carlson started off his show with a slightly less hysterical tone but just as clear about the peril of China overtaking the US and reducing it to second place....
Neither one actually said it was a plot by China, but the Liberty U guy came closest to saying that.

I heard an interview with author Michael Lewis for his book The Fourth Risk which is about the impact of Trump putting unqualified people in departments which deal in considering and foreseeing long term impacts and crises and interviews staffers on what is no longer being addressed and what they consider the less obvious but potentially disastrous "fourth risks" to be as a result of this.

At the end of the interview Lewis himself was asked for his own answer to this question. His answer - this is over a year ago now - was that if Trump faced an economic downturn he might try to throw red meat to his rally-going base by vilifying China and then saying "China thinks we owe them all this money, I don't think they deserve it. We're not going to pay it."
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: greg on March 24, 2020, 09:18:46 PM
Meanwhile the President of Liberty University was on Fox declaring that the Chinese Marxists had unleashed the virus and planned to make use of it in their quest for world dominance, while Tucker Carlson started off his show with a slightly less hysterical tone but just as clear about the peril of China overtaking the US and reducing it to second place....
Neither one actually said it was a plot by China, but the Liberty U guy came closest to saying that.
We're talking about the CCP, the deadly sin of Pride incarnate?
Not to mention the hug a Chinese campaign in Italy orchestrated by them?

It's all unlikely, for sure, that everything is a big calculated scheme, but if it were, would anyone really be surprised considering who we're talking about?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 24, 2020, 10:29:32 PM
It does make you wonder if someone up there is shaking a fist at us. A depressing dank grey winter, rainfall breaking all records and floods ruining homes and businesses. Our PM informs us gravely that we must stay in our homes and not venture out, and what happens? The sun comes out, the sky is blue and the hottest March day since God knows when!
Yes, this occurred to me Lol! The TV weather forecasts, with some smiling weather forecaster telling us what 'a lovely day' it is strike me now as adding insult to injury, since we are all locked away at home under some form of house arrest.  But, as my daughter tells me I'm turning into 'a grumpy old man'.
 >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 24, 2020, 11:16:12 PM
My only contribution to this thread is this: my opinion about this virus is that it was intentionally created and spread. I don't believe that it came from an animal origin by mutation. The real rulers have the worst intentions towards people, and I'm not mentioning presidents or kings. I suppose you can guess who they are.

[...]

(https://images2.imgbox.com/0b/78/22dXAcG3_o.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: The new erato on March 24, 2020, 11:52:20 PM
Indeed. Holy crap what bullshit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 25, 2020, 01:00:31 AM
A LETTER FROM F. SCOTT FITZGERALD, QUARANTINED IN 1920 IN THE SOUTH OF FRANCE DURING THE SPANISH INFLUENZA OUTBREAK.

Dearest Rosemary,

It was a limpid dreary day, hung as in a basket from a single dull star. I thank you for your letter. Outside, I perceive what may be a collection of fallen leaves tussling against a trash can. It rings like jazz to my ears. The streets are that empty. It seems as though the bulk of the city has retreated to their quarters, rightfully so. At this time, it seems very poignant to avoid all public spaces. Even the bars, as I told Hemingway, but to that he punched me in the stomach, to which I asked if he had washed his hands. He hadn’t. He is much the denier, that one. Why, he considers the virus to be just influenza. I’m curious of his sources.

The officials have alerted us to ensure we have a month’s worth of necessities. Zelda and I have stocked up on red wine, whiskey, rum, vermouth, absinthe, white wine, sherry, gin, and lord, if we need it, brandy. Please pray for us.

You should see the square, oh, it is terrible. I weep for the damned eventualities this future brings. The long afternoons rolling forward slowly on the ever-slick bottomless highball. Z. says it’s no excuse to drink, but I just can’t seem to steady my hand. In the distance, from my brooding perch, the shoreline is cloaked in a dull haze where I can discern an unremitting penance that has been heading this way for a long, long while. And yet, amongst the cracked cloudline of an evening’s cast, I focus on a single strain of light, calling me forth to believe in a better morrow.

Faithfully yours,

F. Scott Fitzgerald
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Irons on March 25, 2020, 01:23:22 AM
Yes, this occurred to me Lol! The TV weather forecasts, with some smiling weather forecaster telling us what 'a lovely day' it is strike me now as adding insult to injury, since we are all locked away at home under some form of house arrest.  But, as my daughter tells me I'm turning into 'a grumpy old man'.
 >:(

I'm most fortunate as you know I have an allotment, Jeffrey. The perfect environment for this as we stand in our own space for a natter, growing vegetables to eat and enjoying the peace of it all. To quote a sadly departed music forum friend "mission control :-*" is not too happy though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 25, 2020, 03:38:34 AM
A friend sent this link to me to bring 'a little brightness into my evening'.  I hope that it does for you too:


https://www.facebook.com/1018021376/posts/10218672458135444/?d=n

Best wishes,

PD

p.s.  Is the Facebook video showing at your end?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 25, 2020, 03:47:25 AM
I'm most fortunate as you know I have an allotment, Jeffrey. The perfect environment for this as we stand in our own space for a natter, growing vegetables to eat and enjoying the peace of it all. To quote a sadly departed music forum friend "mission control :-*" is not too happy though.

I need to get back to working in my garden.  I did find out the other day that until further notice, the town's area that I bring my yard wasted too is closed 'til further notice.  I did recently resurrect my leaf mulch pile (with the help of a neighbor put the fencing back up) and used my lawnmower to break down a lot of leaves.  Branches will have to go into another pile for the time being though.

Enjoy the peace!   :)

Best wishes,

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 25, 2020, 03:51:15 AM
     The latest numbers show NY state cases growing slightly slower than Florida (since Sunday 63% to 70%). Probably traveling is less safe than staying put for everyone.
I heard over the news yesterday, that Gov. Cuomo will only be receiving 400 ventilators out of the requested 30,000 from the Feds and NYC is one of the worst hit areas!  Hope that that changes soon!

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 25, 2020, 03:53:55 AM
All indications are that the answer is yes. Nothing is certain at this point, but it looks like Trump has lost his taste for anti-virus measures, and that imposition of travel restrictions is less likely. I think worst case is they will make be self-quaranteen for 14 days when I get there.
Yeah!  Fingers crossed for you.  Moving is stressful enough as is (not to mention moving to a different state and starting a new job and another baby on the way), so all good thoughts your way.

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 25, 2020, 04:05:43 AM
Just heard that Prince Charles has tested positive....wow!  So far, mild symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 25, 2020, 05:18:37 AM
For the mathematically inclined.

http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-03-25-oxford-university-launches-world-s-first-covid-19-government-response-tracker?utm_source=miragenews&utm_medium=miragenews&utm_campaign=news

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html


https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20(13).pdf?dl=0
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: j winter on March 25, 2020, 05:26:10 AM
A LETTER FROM F. SCOTT FITZGERALD, QUARANTINED IN 1920 IN THE SOUTH OF FRANCE DURING THE SPANISH INFLUENZA OUTBREAK.

Dearest Rosemary,

It was a limpid dreary day, hung as in a basket from a single dull star. I thank you for your letter. Outside, I perceive what may be a collection of fallen leaves tussling against a trash can. It rings like jazz to my ears. The streets are that empty. It seems as though the bulk of the city has retreated to their quarters, rightfully so. At this time, it seems very poignant to avoid all public spaces. Even the bars, as I told Hemingway, but to that he punched me in the stomach, to which I asked if he had washed his hands. He hadn’t. He is much the denier, that one. Why, he considers the virus to be just influenza. I’m curious of his sources.

The officials have alerted us to ensure we have a month’s worth of necessities. Zelda and I have stocked up on red wine, whiskey, rum, vermouth, absinthe, white wine, sherry, gin, and lord, if we need it, brandy. Please pray for us.

You should see the square, oh, it is terrible. I weep for the damned eventualities this future brings. The long afternoons rolling forward slowly on the ever-slick bottomless highball. Z. says it’s no excuse to drink, but I just can’t seem to steady my hand. In the distance, from my brooding perch, the shoreline is cloaked in a dull haze where I can discern an unremitting penance that has been heading this way for a long, long while. And yet, amongst the cracked cloudline of an evening’s cast, I focus on a single strain of light, calling me forth to believe in a better morrow.

Faithfully yours,

F. Scott Fitzgerald

Great stuff... thanks for posting it
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mahlerian on March 25, 2020, 05:30:47 AM
We're talking about the CCP, the deadly sin of Pride incarnate?
Not to mention the hug a Chinese campaign in Italy orchestrated by them?

It's all unlikely, for sure, that everything is a big calculated scheme, but if it were, would anyone really be surprised considering who we're talking about?

Yes, because it would be absolutely idiotic for them to kill thousands of their own people and damage their own reputation among their citizens for the sake of possibly harming the US and potentially getting them to retaliate.

Conspiracy theories generally only make sense if you assume that there must be some kind of conspiracy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: j winter on March 25, 2020, 05:32:40 AM
I need to get back to working in my garden.  I did find out the other day that until further notice, the town's area that I bring my yard wasted too is closed 'til further notice.  I did recently resurrect my leaf mulch pile (with the help of a neighbor put the fencing back up) and used my lawnmower to break down a lot of leaves.  Branches will have to go into another pile for the time being though.

Enjoy the peace!   :)

Best wishes,

PD

I've been eyeing the steadily growing grass in the front yard for several days (indeed Spring waits for no virus), and trying to decide whether to get some exercise or to introduce my two teenagers to the fine and ancient art of lawn mowing.  The more I consider it, the more I think that I should not be selfish -- who am I to deny the yardcare wisdom of the ages to the younger generation?  In times of trial, it falls to we elders to pass on what we have learned...  ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 25, 2020, 05:45:06 AM
Great stuff... thanks for posting it
+1  Poignant with a touch of humor. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 25, 2020, 05:45:49 AM
I've been eyeing the steadily growing grass in the front yard for several days (indeed Spring waits for no virus), and trying to decide whether to get some exercise or to introduce my two teenagers to the fine and ancient art of lawn mowing.  The more I consider it, the more I think that I should not be selfish -- who am I to deny the yardcare wisdom of the ages to the younger generation?  In times of trial, it falls to we elders to pass on what we have learned...  ;D
;D Go for it!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 25, 2020, 06:09:06 AM
Yes, because it would be absolutely idiotic for them to kill thousands of their own people and damage their own reputation among their citizens ...
I don’t know how old you are. During my lifetime the CCP starved 30 million of its own people. I don’t believe the virus was a plot. I won’t credit the motives of the CCP either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 25, 2020, 06:38:12 AM
I won’t credit the motives of the CCP either.

     The Chinese government denied the reality of the virus because that's what authoritarians always do. For an aspiring authoritarian Trump was extremely stupid to believe them. He should have known that Chinese reassurances were not trustworthy. Even Putin is listening to experts while lying to Russians and the world. Trump ignored his own experts and is trying really really hard to keep doing it. Fortunately we have "enemies of the people" to expose him.

     
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 25, 2020, 06:44:31 AM
 
     ‘Astonishing Response’: Over 170,000 Brits Sign Up in One Day to Help Health Service (https://www.thedailybeast.com/coronavirus-appeal-sees-over-170000-brits-sign-up-to-help-national-health-service?ref=home)

     It's public health, it's national health, it's worth fighting for.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mahlerian on March 25, 2020, 06:47:49 AM
I don’t know how old you are. During my lifetime the CCP starved 30 million of its own people. I don’t believe the virus was a plot. I won’t credit the motives of the CCP either.

I don't see how saying that the CCP didn't have much of a motive to unleash this virus is imputing good motives to them. An absence of a specific negative does not in this case imply anything positive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: The new erato on March 25, 2020, 06:48:26 AM
Even Putin is listening to experts while lying to Russians and the world.
   
And sending help to Italy:

(https://premium.vgc.no/ap/images/448f4c53-56e4-424b-ad30-0d347225fcfc?fit=crop&h=1152&q=80&w=2048)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 25, 2020, 07:35:46 AM
Controversial BU lab is only one in New England with live coronavirus (https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/24/business/controversial-bu-lab-is-only-one-new-england-with-live-coronavirus/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 25, 2020, 07:40:39 AM
To those who are concerned about coronavirus, Trump doesn’t care (https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/24/opinion/president-cares-more-about-economy-than-american-lives-midst-coronavirus-pandemic/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Irons on March 25, 2020, 08:07:52 AM

     ‘Astonishing Response’: Over 170,000 Brits Sign Up in One Day to Help Health Service (https://www.thedailybeast.com/coronavirus-appeal-sees-over-170000-brits-sign-up-to-help-national-health-service?ref=home)

     It's public health, it's national health, it's worth fighting for.

A powerful message https://youtu.be/t2JBQsJp5-s
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 25, 2020, 08:16:44 AM
The CCP is fully responsible for the spreading of this virus, both internally and internationally. Had they taken draconian measures the very moment they were warned about it, it would have been contained and subsided before it had any chance to spread. But no, their main concern was to reprimand dr. Li for denigrating the grand achievements of the CCP and to threaten him with jail. I'm disgusted with, and angry at, those bloody effing communists who unleashed hell on the whole earth because they thought they could never be wrong. Not that I ever expected any good to come from communism or communists but I should have thought that globally speaking their menace is a thing of the past. I was wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Que on March 25, 2020, 08:20:23 AM
And sending help to Italy:

(https://premium.vgc.no/ap/images/448f4c53-56e4-424b-ad30-0d347225fcfc?fit=crop&h=1152&q=80&w=2048)

Putin likes to play games.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 25, 2020, 08:27:31 AM
Putin likes to play games.....
+1
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 25, 2020, 08:31:25 AM
To those who are concerned about coronavirus, Trump doesn’t care (https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/24/opinion/president-cares-more-about-economy-than-american-lives-midst-coronavirus-pandemic/)

What about Boston Globe who apparently care more about their revenues than bringing information to people when they need it the most?

This is the message I received when clicking the link:

YOU'VE BEEN SELECTED
Only $1 for 6 months
Special offer just for you. Only $1 for unlimited access.
Get access now


Thanks but no thanks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 25, 2020, 08:37:58 AM
(https://i.imgflip.com/3tzt0o.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 25, 2020, 08:55:58 AM
The CCP is fully responsible for the spreading of this virus, both internally and internationally. Had they taken draconian measures the very moment they were warned about it, it would have been contained and subsided before it had any chance to spread. But no, their main concern was to reprimand dr. Li for denigrating the grand achievements of the CCP and to threaten him with jail. I'm disgusted with, and angry at, those bloody effing communists who unleashed hell on the whole earth because they thought they could never be wrong. Not that I ever expected any good to come from communism or communists but I should have thought that globally speaking their menace is a thing of the past. I was wrong.

    So why did Trump accept their word and amplify their message while his intelligence agencies told him China was covering up? Is he a communist dupe or a dictator dupe? What does "I don't see why it would be Russia" mean?

    You attach too much importance to the label and not enough to how dictators behave, left ones, right ones, aspiring ones, all ones.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 25, 2020, 08:59:45 AM
    So why did Trump accept their word and amplify their message while his intelligence agencies told him China was covering up? Is he a communist dupe or a dictator dupe? What does "I don't see why it would be Russia" mean?

    You attach too much importance to the label and not enough to how dictators behave, left ones, right ones, aspiring ones, all ones.

My post has got nothing to do with Trump. I don't even know, or care about, what he said. It's how I see the whole thing. We're all in deep shit because of the CCP's policies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 25, 2020, 09:08:11 AM
What about Boston Globe who apparently care more about their revenues than bringing information to people when they need it the most?

This is the message I received when clicking the link:

YOU'VE BEEN SELECTED
Only $1 for 6 months
Special offer just for you. Only $1 for unlimited access.
Get access now


Thanks but no thanks.

     I got that, too. I subscribe to the WaPo and NYTimes because they are essential IMV. The Globe would be overkill.

My post has got nothing to do with Trump. I don't even know, or care about, what he said. It's how I see the whole thing. We're all in deep shit because of the CCP's policies.

    If China decided to disown the communist label and assumed a purely nationalistic one more descriptively accurate, they would have behaved the same way. Their methods and motivations would be the same. Trump would be duped by them just the same.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 25, 2020, 09:34:51 AM
Let’s forget actual Covid 19 news so that the same posters can have the same fights about Donald Trump that they have on every thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 25, 2020, 09:36:54 AM
     If China decided to disown the communist label and assumed a purely nationalistic one more descriptively accurate, they would have behaved the same way. Their methods and motivations would be the same. Trump would be duped by them just the same.

China's regime can be accurately described as national-communism. Leaving out the latter term is misleading.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 25, 2020, 09:44:01 AM
Let’s forget actual Covid 19 news so that the same posters can have the same fights about Donald Trump that they have on every thread.

     OK, sounds good to me. I think China and Trump are big parts of the pandemic story. I'll still comment on other pandemic news, though, if that's all right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 25, 2020, 09:48:57 AM
What about Boston Globe who apparently care more about their revenues than bringing information to people when they need it the most?

This is the message I received when clicking the link:

YOU'VE BEEN SELECTED
Only $1 for 6 months
Special offer just for you. Only $1 for unlimited access.
Get access now


Thanks but no thanks.

Well, that is an opinion piece;  articles about the pandemic proper are available to all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 25, 2020, 09:50:41 AM
Blinkered evangelicals:

Liberty University is welcoming students back to campus, while colleges across the county have sent students home to to try slow the spread of coronavirus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 25, 2020, 09:51:09 AM
France became the fifth country to mark more than 1,000 coronavirus deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 25, 2020, 09:59:55 AM

     The Italian slowdown appears to be real, though very gradual. Spanish, French and US deaths are doubling every 3 days, Italian deaths are now doubling every 5 days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 25, 2020, 10:13:07 AM
     OK, sounds good to me. I think China and Trump are big parts of the pandemic story. I'll still comment on other pandemic news, though, if that's all right.
Yes, it’s perfectly alright with me if you do exactly what I just wished for you to do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Ratliff on March 25, 2020, 10:32:12 AM
There was denial and coverup at the beginning of the outbreak, certainly. But they had 41 confirmed cases on January 10, and 571 confirmed cases on January 22, when they implemented the complete lockdown of the province. Now they have gotten to a point where there are no new infections as the point of origin. Has any western state been more proactive? I see western states that did nothing at the same stage, even after witnessing events in China and the response.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 25, 2020, 10:42:26 AM
Yes, it’s perfectly alright with me if you do exactly what I just wished for you to do.

     Trump is a Chinese Communist. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/cheesy.gif)

     
There was denial and coverup at the beginning of the outbreak, certainly. But they had 41 confirmed cases on January 10, and 571 confirmed cases on January 22, when they implemented the complete lockdown of the province. Now they have gotten to a point where there are no new infections as the point of origin. Has any western state been more proactive? I see western states that did nothing at the same stage, even after witnessing events in China and the response.

   
Dec. 10: Wei Guixian, one of the earliest known coronavirus patients, starts feeling ill.

Dec. 16: Patient admitted to Wuhan Central Hospital with infection in both lungs but resistant to anti-flu drugs. Staff later learned he worked at a wildlife market connected to the outbreak.

Dec. 27: Wuhan health officials are told that a new coronavirus is causing the illness.

Dec. 30:

    Ai Fen, a top director at Wuhan Central Hospital, posts information on WeChat about the new virus. She was reprimanded for doing so and told not to spread information about it.
    Wuhan doctor Li Wenliang also shares information on WeChat about the new SARS-like virus. He is called in for questioning shortly afterward.
    Wuhan health commission notifies hospitals of a “pneumonia of unclear cause” and orders them to report any related information.

Dec. 31:

    Wuhan health officials confirm 27 cases of illness and close a market they think is related to the virus' spread.
    China tells the World Health Organization’s China office about the cases of an unknown illness.

Jan. 1: Wuhan Public Security Bureau brings in for questioning eight doctors who had posted information about the illness on WeChat.

    An official at the Hubei Provincial Health Commission orders labs, which had already determined that the novel virus was similar to SARS, to stop testing samples and to destroy existing samples.

Jan. 2: Chinese researchers map the new coronavirus' complete genetic information. This information is not made public until Jan. 9.

Jan. 7: Xi Jinping becomes involved in the response.

Jan. 9: China announces it has mapped the coronavirus genome.

Jan. 11–17: Important prescheduled CCP meeting held in Wuhan. During that time, the Wuhan Health Commission insists there are no new cases.

Jan. 13: First coronavirus case reported in Thailand, the first known case outside China.

Jan. 14: WHO announces Chinese authorities have seen "no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus."

Jan. 15: The patient who becomes the first confirmed U.S. case leaves Wuhan and arrives in the U.S., carrying the coronavirus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 25, 2020, 10:53:31 AM
     It's funny, I remember the stories about the Chinese doctor who was arrested and others being told to keep quiet. That must have been around the time Trump was getting briefings from the intelligence people about what was really happening in China. Meanwhile Trump was congratulating the Chinese leader on his successful handling of the situation.

     As CNBC reported on Jan. 24:

President Donald Trump thanked Chinese President Xi Jinping for his country’s handling of the coronavirus, shortly after American health officials confirmed a second case in the United States. “China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus,” Trump wrote in a post on Twitter. “The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!”

     
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 25, 2020, 11:20:30 AM
Blinkered evangelicals:

Liberty University is welcoming students back to campus, while colleges across the county have sent students home to to try slow the spread of coronavirus.

It may not be quite so irrational as it sounds.

During that same segment in which the President of Liberty U suggested COVID19 is a Chinese plot, he said that

1)the dorms are open for international students and special needs students, and students whose parents decided the students were safer at the school than at home (usually because home is one or another hot spot for the virus).  All other students remain at their own home.

2)all learning is done online. Even for the students who are on campus,  it will be online,  and no in classroom learning.

That's not in fact very different from what many schools are doing: students who can't go home for one reason or another are allowed to stay on campus, and all educational activity is online. My alma mater seems to be doing it that, and unlike Liberty, they have a med school and associated resources, and the CDC itself, on campus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Daverz on March 25, 2020, 11:22:19 AM
Blinkered evangelicals:

Liberty University is welcoming students back to campus, while colleges across the county have sent students home to to try slow the spread of coronavirus.

It seems they are susceptible to magical thinking.  Who woulda knowed?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 25, 2020, 11:33:35 AM
It may not be quite so irrational as it sounds.

During that same segment in which the President of Liberty U suggested COVID19 is a Chinese plot, he said that

1)the dorms are open for international students and special needs students, and students whose parents decided the students were safer at the school than at home (usually because home is one or another hot spot for the virus).  All other students remain at their own home.

2)all learning is done online. Even for the students who are on campus,  it will be online,  and no in classroom learning.

That's not in fact very different from what many schools are doing: students who can't go home for one reason or another are allowed to stay on campus, and all educational activity is online. My alma mater seems to be doing it that, and unlike Liberty, they have a med school and associated resources, and the CDC itself, on campus.

Interesting!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 25, 2020, 12:18:28 PM
It would be great if someone who understands statistics comment this -- Scarpia maybe. If the guys at Oxford are right it radically changes things.




https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20(13).pdf?dl=0
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 25, 2020, 12:34:25 PM
It would be great if someone who understands statistics comment this -- Scarpia maybe. If the guys at Oxford are right it radically changes things.




https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20(13).pdf?dl=0

I stopped when I read this

Quote
Our overall approach rests on the assumption that only a very small proportion of the
population is at risk of hospitalisable illness.

The real risk of the epidemic is that it will overwhelm our healthcare systems. They have assumed this risk away, more or less.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Ratliff on March 25, 2020, 12:35:25 PM
Dec. 10: Wei Guixian, one of the earliest known coronavirus patients, starts feeling ill.

Dec. 16: Patient admitted to Wuhan Central Hospital with infection in both lungs but resistant to anti-flu drugs. Staff later learned he worked at a wildlife market connected to the outbreak.

Dec. 27: Wuhan health officials are told that a new coronavirus is causing the illness.

Dec. 30:

    Ai Fen, a top director at Wuhan Central Hospital, posts information on WeChat about the new virus. She was reprimanded for doing so and told not to spread information about it.
    Wuhan doctor Li Wenliang also shares information on WeChat about the new SARS-like virus. He is called in for questioning shortly afterward.
    Wuhan health commission notifies hospitals of a “pneumonia of unclear cause” and orders them to report any related information.

Dec. 31:

    Wuhan health officials confirm 27 cases of illness and close a market they think is related to the virus' spread.
    China tells the World Health Organization’s China office about the cases of an unknown illness.

Jan. 1: Wuhan Public Security Bureau brings in for questioning eight doctors who had posted information about the illness on WeChat.

    An official at the Hubei Provincial Health Commission orders labs, which had already determined that the novel virus was similar to SARS, to stop testing samples and to destroy existing samples.

Jan. 2: Chinese researchers map the new coronavirus' complete genetic information. This information is not made public until Jan. 9.

Jan. 7: Xi Jinping becomes involved in the response.

Jan. 9: China announces it has mapped the coronavirus genome.

Jan. 11–17: Important prescheduled CCP meeting held in Wuhan. During that time, the Wuhan Health Commission insists there are no new cases.

Jan. 13: First coronavirus case reported in Thailand, the first known case outside China.

Jan. 14: WHO announces Chinese authorities have seen "no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus."

Jan. 15: The patient who becomes the first confirmed U.S. case leaves Wuhan and arrives in the U.S., carrying the coronavirus.


Generally it seems like local public health officials figuring out the nature of the disease as soon as could be expected, but local political leaders suppressing information and thwarting an appropriate response. The statement that no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus has been seen stands out as a red flag. But at that point there was a small cluster of cases and it could be that all could be traced back to the market where it seems to have originated. Eight days later the national government ordered the province sealed off.

My point isn't that China didn't screw it up. My point is that people are criticizing China from countries that had advanced warning and screwed it up even worse.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 25, 2020, 12:43:53 PM
My point isn't that China didn't screw it up. My point is that people are criticizing China from countries that had advanced warning and screwed it up even worse.
 


Niffs of scapegoating, which here more than anywhere is useless.

Scarps, best of luck with the relocation!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 25, 2020, 12:48:15 PM
I stopped when I read this

The real risk of the epidemic is that it will overwhelm our healthcare systems. They have assumed this risk away, more or less.

I don't think they've done that.  Even if only a small percentage of the population is hospitalized, our facilities could get overwhelmed. Illustration--Atlanta, where they have already filled up all their ICU beds. More dramatic illustration: NYC's hospitals are being overwhelmed with 15,000 cases (at the moment) in the city, most of them being treated at home and not in hospital. 15,000 people is about .02% of the city's population (if I am reading my calculator correctly).  So even a tiny amount of cases is wreaking havoc.

ETA...reviewing my math, that should probably be 0.2%. But it's still a small percentage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 25, 2020, 01:08:14 PM
I don't think they've done that.  Even if only a small percentage of the population is hospitalized, our facilities could get overwhelmed. Illustration--Atlanta, where they have already filled up all their ICU beds. More dramatic illustration: NYC's hospitals are being overwhelmed with 15,000 cases (at the moment) in the city, most of them being treated at home and not in hospital. 15,000 people is about .02% of the city's population (if I am reading my calculator correctly).  So even a tiny amount of cases is wreaking havoc.

ETA...reviewing my math, that should probably be 0.2%. But it's still a small percentage.
Well that makes their assumptions look even more over optimistic. My point is simply that if you assume a low enough risk you get a better outcome. They don’t have any evidence it’s true.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 25, 2020, 01:17:22 PM
It would be great if someone who understands statistics comment this -- Scarpia maybe. If the guys at Oxford are right it radically changes things.




https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20(13).pdf?dl=0



     The part about the first case occurring a month before the first death sounds right. It may also be right that there's far more herd immunity in the population than we know about. I've seen a figure of 80% of people who are asymptomatic. Illness is the tip of an iceberg and deaths are the tip of the tip. So, the game is to protect the most vulnerable until the population around them has recovered from a virus that never made them sick.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 25, 2020, 01:27:15 PM
Generally it seems like local public health officials figuring out the nature of the disease as soon as could be expected, but local political leaders suppressing information and thwarting an appropriate response. The statement that no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus has been seen stands out as a red flag. But at that point there was a small cluster of cases and it could be that all could be traced back to the market where it seems to have originated. Eight days later the national government ordered the province sealed off.

My point isn't that China didn't screw it up. My point is that people are criticizing China from countries that had advanced warning and screwed it up even worse.
 


    I agree that what certain well informed persons did and are doing is worse, which is amazing since they are not very Communist and completely not Chinese.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 25, 2020, 01:29:38 PM
How about a dose of good news?

Recent stories:

Doctors who were retired have come out of it and are pitching in.
News stories about people helping each other:  making surgical masks, shopping for strangers, doctors whose type of work isn't critical donating supplies from their practices
Donations from construction companies of masks
Heard about one cathedral that had found a bunch of masks and donated them:  https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-20200325-u4fore3w2nf35kjwki5arelhyy-story.html

What are some of the stories that you've heard/read lately?  We could all do with a dose of some good news.

Best,

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 25, 2020, 01:33:56 PM

     The U.S. should seek a humanitarian truce with Iran (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/the-us-should-seek-a-humanitarian-truce-with-iran/2020/03/25/4dac9774-6df5-11ea-aa80-c2470c6b2034_story.html)

     Would it hurt to let Iranians know we would like to help them, and if we can't it's because their government won't let it happen?

     
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 25, 2020, 01:50:43 PM
Brazil gangs impose strict curfews to slow coronavirus spread (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/brazil-rio-gangs-coronavirus)

"Drug traffickers in one of Rio de Janeiro’s best-known favelas have imposed a coronavirus curfew, amid growing fears over the impact the virus could have on some of Brazil’s poorest citizens.

In recent days, as Brazil’s coronavirus death toll has climbed to 46, gang members have been circulating in the Cidade de Deus (City of God) favela in western Rio ordering residents to remain indoors after 8pm.

Last weekend the low-income community – made famous by Fernando Meirelles’ 2002 blockbuster of the same name – became the first such area to record a case of coronavirus.

And in an apparent attempt to prevent further infections the Red Command gang leaders who control the favela have ordered residents to stay at home.

A video apparently recorded in the City of God circulated on social media this week showing a loudspeaker broadcasting the alert: “Anyone found messing or walking around outside will be punished.”

“The traffickers are doing this because the government is absent. The authorities are blind to us,” one resident told the Guardian.

A report in the Rio newspaper Extra said gang members with loudhailers were moving around City of God telling its 40,000 residents: “We are imposing a curfew because nobody is taking [coronavirus] seriously. It’s best to stay at home and chill. The message has been given.”

City of God’s gangsters are not the only outlaws attacking coronavirus in Rio’s densely populated favelas, which are home to about 2 of the city’s 7 million residents.

In the Morro dos Prazeres, gang members have told residents only circulate in groups of two while in Rocinha, one of Latin America’s biggest favelas, traffickers have also decreed a curfew.

“The gangsters have said that after 8.30pm everybody must stay indoors and if they don’t there will be reprisals,” said a street hawker who lives there. “I’m staying at home – filled with fear and smothered in hand sanitizer,” the man joked.

In Santa Marta, a favela that sits in the shadow of Rio’s Christ the Redeemer statue, traffickers have been handing out soap and have placed signs near a public water fountain at the community’s entrance that say: “Please wash your hands before entering the favela.”

“I think they wrote this for the addicts who come here to buy drugs, so they don’t bring the virus in,” one local said. “But it won’t work. People who live right up at the top of the [hilltop] favela sometimes go two weeks without running water. If people aren’t even able to feed themselves, how are they supposed to stay clean?”[...]
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 25, 2020, 02:35:09 PM
I stopped when I read this

The real risk of the epidemic is that it will overwhelm our healthcare systems. They have assumed this risk away, more or less.

No. If the population is large (and it is) and the health service is small (and it is) then it can be true that "only a very small proportion of the population is at risk of hospitalisable illness" and "it will overwhelm our healthcare systems"
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 25, 2020, 02:39:46 PM
How about a dose of good news?

Recent stories:

Doctors who were retired have come out of it and are pitching in.
News stories about people helping each other:  making surgical masks, shopping for strangers, doctors whose type of work isn't critical donating supplies from their practices
Donations from construction companies of masks
Heard about one cathedral that had found a bunch of masks and donated them:  https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-20200325-u4fore3w2nf35kjwki5arelhyy-story.html

What are some of the stories that you've heard/read lately?  We could all do with a dose of some good news.

Best,

PD

The first patient here in my town, Woburn, Mass. has recovered and is out of isolation. We now have but two confirmed positives.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 25, 2020, 02:44:35 PM
The first patient here in my town, Woburn, Mass. has recovered and is out of isolation. We now have but two confirmed positives.

Excellent news. They have started using blood serum from the newly recovered to boost resistance temporarily. That won Behring the first Nobel prize in medicine in 1901! More survivors, more serum (he said like a vampire).
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 25, 2020, 02:55:44 PM
Has anyone else come across the “homeless” meme? I have seen it now in two places.
Here is an actual exchange I had today.


Quote
Quote
The way you can prove that this is all a scam is that not enough homeless people have died.
They have the worst health. The worst living conditions. The most pre-existing health problems.

They spend the most time in airports, take the most trips to Milan, entertain the most businessmen from Wuhan, spend the most time hanging out with Tom Hanks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 25, 2020, 03:57:50 PM
Quote
The way you can prove that this is all a scam is that not enough homeless people have died.
They have the worst health. The worst living conditions. The most pre-existing health problems.


     Where did this guy learn that not enough homeless people have died?

     (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0e/Japanese_Navy_Aircraft_Carrier_Kaga.jpg)

     I'll just slip this in here for no reason. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/cheesy.gif)

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: geralmar on March 25, 2020, 06:32:41 PM

(https://i.postimg.cc/RF3vBCp1/200324-pompano-beach-al-1344-03ceccbbe3c8163309e2e2607af2fa87-fi.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Pompano Beach, Florida, March 17.

Some Spring Break returnees have already tested positive for coronavirus.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/florida-coronavirus-cases-surge-spring-breakers-express-regret-n1168686

Heartbreaking.  And no, they don't deserve it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 25, 2020, 06:53:49 PM
(https://i.postimg.cc/RF3vBCp1/200324-pompano-beach-al-1344-03ceccbbe3c8163309e2e2607af2fa87-fi.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Pompano Beach, Florida, March 17.

Some Spring Break returnees have already tested positive for coronavirus.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/florida-coronavirus-cases-surge-spring-breakers-express-regret-n1168686

Heartbreaking.  And no, they don't deserve it.

No, but they were foolish.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 25, 2020, 06:56:03 PM
Nobody deserves it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 25, 2020, 06:58:00 PM
Be it noted that Pompano Beach closed its beaches the day after that photo was taken. Most of the beaches in Broward were closed the day before the photo was taken.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Holden on March 25, 2020, 07:04:55 PM
I've decided to only post coronavirus humour as I'm all Covided out!

This is a classic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KPbJ0-DxTc
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Daverz on March 25, 2020, 07:07:57 PM
(https://i.postimg.cc/RF3vBCp1/200324-pompano-beach-al-1344-03ceccbbe3c8163309e2e2607af2fa87-fi.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Pompano Beach, Florida, March 17.

Some Spring Break returnees have already tested positive for coronavirus.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/florida-coronavirus-cases-surge-spring-breakers-express-regret-n1168686

Heartbreaking.  And no, they don't deserve it.

You have to wonder what will happen in those families when Junior brings home the covid-19 infection that kills Nana.  Does everyone at the funeral just pretend that didn't happen?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 25, 2020, 07:28:22 PM
I've decided to only post coronavirus humour as I'm all Covided out!

This is a classic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KPbJ0-DxTc

not at all coronavirus related:

A Capella Science - Bohemian Gravity! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rjbtsX7twc)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 26, 2020, 01:15:29 AM
I'm puzzled by the USA situation. In grave cases such as this, who is directly in charge of managing the situation nationwide? I see Trump wants everybody going back to business as usual before Easter (which would be insane) while some state governors have imposed or recommended partial lockdown (wise move and be prepared for a total one). Does Trump have the power to override their decisions? It's all such a confusing mess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 26, 2020, 01:48:09 AM
I've decided to only post coronavirus humour as I'm all Covided out!

This is a classic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KPbJ0-DxTc

Contains bad language:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WOLG2nBQ-Ns
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 26, 2020, 04:37:03 AM
The first patient here in my town, Woburn, Mass. has recovered and is out of isolation. We now have but two confirmed positives.
Yeah re out of isolation.

Heard stories of people who are using 3-D printers to make those clear plastic face shields that doctors use.   :)

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: geralmar on March 26, 2020, 05:25:34 AM
As long as we're having a bit of fun about the coronavirus...  WARNING: OFFENSIVE LANGUAGE:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Hks6Nq7g6P4

Actually, very powerful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 26, 2020, 05:44:29 AM
On CNN's website, check out these various re-makes:  https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2020/03/23/sweet-caroline-coronavirus-remix-moos-pkg-ebof-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/wacky-world-of-jeanne-moos/
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: milk on March 26, 2020, 05:49:04 AM
Here in Japan, we’ve not seen lockdown and mass unemployment (yet). But watching the news in the States is filling me with anxiety and dread. It doesn’t seem real. I hope we find ways to connect and support each other through these times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: geralmar on March 26, 2020, 06:17:20 AM
Here in Japan, we’ve not seen lockdown and mass unemployment (yet). But watching the news in the States is filling me with anxiety and dread. It doesn’t seem real. I hope we find ways to connect and support each other through these times.

As half my family (on my mother's side) live in Japan I appreciate your concern.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Rinaldo on March 26, 2020, 06:17:58 AM
Ed Yong is one the best science writers out there, recommended reading:

How the Pandemic Will End: The U.S. may end up with the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the industrialized world. This is how it’s going to play out. (https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/)

Quote
With little room to surge during a crisis, America’s health-care system operates on the assumption that unaffected states can help beleaguered ones in an emergency. That ethic works for localized disasters such as hurricanes or wildfires, but not for a pandemic that is now in all 50 states. Cooperation has given way to competition; some worried hospitals have bought out large quantities of supplies, in the way that panicked consumers have bought out toilet paper.

Partly, that’s because the White House is a ghost town of scientific expertise. A pandemic-preparedness office that was part of the National Security Council was dissolved in 2018. On January 28, Luciana Borio, who was part of that team, urged the government to “act now to prevent an American epidemic,” and specifically to work with the private sector to develop fast, easy diagnostic tests. But with the office shuttered, those warnings were published in The Wall Street Journal, rather than spoken into the president’s ear. Instead of springing into action, America sat idle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 26, 2020, 07:21:04 AM
      Trump is instantiating the "headless chicken" model of supply management.

      The government needs to "intrude" resiliency into a system that's too expensive for the private sector to maintain on its own initiative. It's what government is for, of course. That's where collective foresight is stored, and where it's used. You need a bridge, a social program, an army for maybe a little longer than the next quarter? You need these for approximately ever? Then you do it. Doing it teaches you how and why if you don't know already. Knowing already is a good idea, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 26, 2020, 07:37:03 AM
For a bit of levity, this cracked me up (also read the following comment and his reply):

https://twitter.com/stanwawrinka/status/1241424531098656768

p.s.  Trying to figure out how to embed a Twitter tweet/thread?   :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 26, 2020, 07:43:52 AM
For a bit of levity, this cracked me up (also read the following comment and his reply):

https://twitter.com/stanwawrinka/status/1241424531098656768

p.s.  Trying to figure out how to embed a Twitter tweet/thread?   :(

     If it's really necessary make an image of it and host it somewhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 26, 2020, 07:46:48 AM
Thanks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Irons on March 26, 2020, 08:14:24 AM
I'm puzzled by the USA situation. In grave cases such as this, who is directly in charge of managing the situation nationwide? I see Trump wants everybody going back to business as usual before Easter (which would be insane) while some state governors have imposed or recommended partial lockdown (wise move and be prepared for a total one). Does Trump have the power to override their decisions? It's all such a confusing mess.

More then puzzled but worried. Each country has to deal with this as it thinks fit, but what I see of the situation in New York and the sage words of Trump I am scared. If the US goes down the toilet, much as I hate to say it, the rest of the world will follow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 26, 2020, 08:59:18 AM
I'm puzzled by the USA situation. In grave cases such as this, who is directly in charge of managing the situation nationwide?

     In a national emergency, the federal government is in charge subject to limits due to the federal nature of the country. The US and Germany are federal states. For the present crisis the US federal government has vast positive powers in that it has huge provisioning power. It has less negative power to prevent states from taking emergency action on their own.

     The US is doubly burdened by incompetence and dogmatic negativism at the top. Their job in practice is "not their job" in theory. And as you know all too well, belief makes it true.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 26, 2020, 09:11:19 AM
In Belgium, bars and cafés closed to business for 3 weeks as of yesterday night. But not before a last pint !

Belgians understand carpe diem in their own way. Yesterday evening in Brussels, police had to remove revellers from bars well past midnight...

(https://moustique.cdnartwhere.eu/sites/default/files/vdd_lockdown-6.jpg)

Yep. Carpe diem.

Poor wise guys and chicks.

https://world-today-news.com/young-people-who-held-lockdown-parties-are-now-on-ic-abroad/

Today, Dutch influencer Paul Goudsmit, who as King Alert has 176,000 followers on YouTube, also argued that the seriousness of the situation does not get through to young people. He points to influencers in an article on the opinion page of De Telegraaf. “Children are being brainwashed by their idols. It doesn’t matter what a virologist says? It doesn’t matter what politicians say either…. Because according to their idols, “it is not so bad after all.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 26, 2020, 09:17:47 AM
More then puzzled but worried. Each country has to deal with this as it thinks fit, but what I see of the situation in New York and the sage words of Trump I am scared. If the US goes down the toilet, much as I hate to say it, the rest of the world will follow.

     The US is the biggest buyer of the world's goods. Damn right the world will follow. If we run out of dollars to save ourselves we won't be the only ones to suffer. Everything tells me that an unprecedented dollar runout is in the works. Senators are complaining that the rescue package is too generous to the poorest workers. They are preparing the battlefield by treating recovery as an unmerited gift, and pointing to where this lack of merit can be found.

     
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 26, 2020, 09:28:39 AM
For the present crisis the US federal government has vast positive powers in that it has huge provisioning power. It has less negative power to prevent states from taking emergency action on their own.

Good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: mc ukrneal on March 26, 2020, 09:29:04 AM
Some of you were wondering earlier why Germany had so few deaths compared to tested. Here is an article that attempts to explain that:
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/coronavirus-why-germanys-death-toll-is-so-low-125400840.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 26, 2020, 09:36:04 AM
Some of you were wondering earlier why Germany had so few deaths compared to tested. Here is an article that attempts to explain that:
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/coronavirus-why-germanys-death-toll-is-so-low-125400840.html

     Yes, I asked that and got some answers I kept to myself. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/smiley.gif)

Making direct comparisons between national mortality rates can be misleading, not just because of recording lags and different methodologies on reporting cases and deaths, but also because of the extent of testing. The more aggressively a country tests for coronavirus, the more cases of mild infections will be found and recorded in the statistics, which pushes the fatality percentage down. 

Various medical experts have attributed the low mortality partly to the fact that the first wave of coronavirus cases in Germany happened among younger people, many of whom had returned from ski holidays in other European countries, especially resorts in Italy and Austria, and recovered.

     
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 26, 2020, 09:51:12 AM
Nobody deserves it.

"Deserve's got nothing to do with it."

It's tragic though… spoke to my employer on the phone 2 days ago, and one of his main sources in these turbulent times is a dude called Robert Jensen, broadcast-dj and 'free-thinking' opinion maker, who's also got a YouTube channel. This Jensen is convinced that it's the governments who create this panic on purpose, to silent the 'ordinary people'. I begged him, cuz he's got children, to pay no attention to fools like Jensen and just try to live by the regularions and advices from government and National Health Organisations. Well, he promised he would try to do that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 26, 2020, 10:26:51 AM
"Deserve's got nothing to do with it."

It's tragic though… spoke to my employer on the phone 2 days ago, and one of his main sources in these turbulent times is a dude called Robert Jensen, broadcast-dj and 'free-thinking' opinion maker, who's also got a YouTube channel. This Jensen is convinced that it's the governments who create this panic on purpose, to silent the 'ordinary people'. I begged him, cuz he's got children, to pay no attention to fools like Jensen and just try to live by the regularions and advices from government and National Health Organisations. Well, he promised he would try to do that.

This worries me too. I am debating, if that is the word and it really isn’t, with deniers on a popular blog. Their ignorance and certainty are scary. I have no fear that they will directly influence government decisions, but I worry a lot that they will lead to non compliance with quarantines and distancing. People who think it’s a sham are more likely to say “the hell with it”.  My wife asks why I waste my time when I cannot convince them. My answer is that I am trying to convince other people who read it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: geralmar on March 26, 2020, 11:03:30 AM
Pristine Republican response:

https://americanindependent.com/mike-parson-coronavirus-missouri-governor-gop-covid-19/
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 26, 2020, 12:46:27 PM
This worries me too. I am debating, if that is the word and it really isn’t, with deniers on a popular blog. Their ignorance and certainty are scary. I have no fear that they will directly influence government decisions, but I worry a lot that they will lead to non compliance with quarantines and distancing. People who think it’s a sham are more likely to say “the hell with it”.  My wife asks why I waste my time when I cannot convince them. My answer is that I am trying to convince other people who read it.

     You're doing the right thing for the right reason.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: 71 dB on March 26, 2020, 12:54:06 PM
Today I have this thought in my head:

Funny how much countries spend money on military and then a microscopic virus comes and forces the whole World on it's knees.  ::)

What are all the tanks, cannons and nuclear missiles good for fighting against COVID-19? We should have nuked the bats in China to prevent this... 

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 26, 2020, 12:56:04 PM
Pristine Republican response:

https://americanindependent.com/mike-parson-coronavirus-missouri-governor-gop-covid-19/

Against ignorance even the gods strive in vain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 26, 2020, 01:15:25 PM
Today I have this thought in my head:

Funny how much countries spend money on military and then a microscopic virus comes and forces the whole World on it's knees.  ::)

What are all the tanks, cannons and nuclear missiles good for fighting against COVID-19? We should have nuked the bats in China to prevent this... 



     The weapons are not preventing a proper economic response to the pandemic. I know Sanders thinks money always comes from who has it, but it just plain doesn't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 26, 2020, 01:49:03 PM

     The Four Possible Timelines for Life Returning to Normal (https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:7kxB5zCKzNkJ:https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-social-distancing-over-back-to-normal/608752/+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us)

     This is good stuff. It's quite possible life will be fairly normal in a few months, even if the best timeline isn't the one we get.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: geralmar on March 26, 2020, 03:06:09 PM
The Trump re-election committee is threatening to sue to take this ad off the air.  A transparent bluff.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bkMwvmJLnc0
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 26, 2020, 03:29:49 PM
The Trump re-election committee is threatening to sue to take this ad off the air.  A transparent bluff.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bkMwvmJLnc0

     I think his claim is that "hoax" was taken out of context. Snopes sez:

What's True

oint out that Trump's claim of "their hoax" has no merit, and his behavior pattern in everything virusDuring a Feb. 28, 2020, campaign rally in South Carolina, President Donald Trump likened the Democrats' criticism of his administration's response to the new coronavirus outbreak to their efforts to impeach him, saying "this is their new hoax." During the speech he also seemed to downplay the severity of the outbreak, comparing it to the common flu.

What's False

Despite creating some confusion with his remarks, Trump did not call the coronavirus itself a hoax.


     Trump would like to avoid seeing the inside of a courtroom forever if not longer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 26, 2020, 03:32:24 PM
The latest episode of Preet Bharara's podcast (yes, Preet is my personal Kyle) is an extensive interview with Andy Slavitt, formerly Acting Administrator of Medicare and Medicaid Services and who is currently advising officials and some in the White House on the needs and logistics of supplying front line medical workers. He's very insightful and well informed on how this is likely to play out in America moving forward and on the questions some have on health vs economy.

https://cafe.com/tracking-tackling-covid-19-with-andy-slavitt/


Also listened to an episode of the Campaign HQ podcast from David Plouffe (formerly Obama's campaign strategist) from 7 days ago that interviews Ron Klain who was Al Gore and Joe Bidens chief of staff and also Obama's Ebola Czar, talking about the differences in response then and now. This one, I might need to warn some, has lots of Trump bashing throughout (Andy Slavitt in the one above tries his best to avoid that while still clearly not a fan).

https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/cadence13/campaign-hq-with-david-plouffe/e/68158600
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: greg on March 26, 2020, 06:41:47 PM
The Trump re-election committee is threatening to sue to take this ad off the air.  A transparent bluff.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bkMwvmJLnc0
Is it really trying to take a clip of him saying "I like this stuff" to make it seem like he likes the virus? LOL.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 26, 2020, 06:51:53 PM

Neil Ferguson said ...

I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.
This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 26, 2020, 06:59:40 PM
Something from a guy named Bart Hall, whom I have never heard of.

Quote


Truckers are saying “fuck the log rules, I’m hauling” and they’re getting supplies to the stores. People are stocking the shelves all night and letting old people shop first. Folks are buying meals for truckers, who (obviously) can’t go through the drive-ups. Asking ’em what they want, then buying it for them.

Carnival Cruise Line has told Trump “We can match those big Navy Hospital ships with some fully staffed cruise ships”.

GM and Ford have said “hold our cars and watch this — we can make ventilators where we were just making car parts, starting next week” — by re-engineering seat ventilators which their engineers hacked together for a new purpose. In under a week.

In a project with which I’m loosely associated, a very-effective agricultural disease-control agent was re-purposed and re-labeled specifically for Corona-virus control by the FDA and EPA in under ten days, from initial request to distribution.

Restaurants and schools have said, “we’ve got kitchens and staff; we can feed the poor kids who used have school lunch.”

NBA basketball players have said, “Hold our basketballs while we write checks to pay the arena staff.”

Construction companies are saying, “Here are some high-end masks for medical staff and doctors”.

Distilleries are making sanitizer out of distilling “heads and tails” which are normally discarded. Nasty shit to drink, but effective sanitizer.

People are tipping grocery check-out clerks and thanking them for taking the risk.

Local, state, and county governments are taking control of everything the feds cannot do. Some are doing it wrong, but for the first time in decades … they’re doing it. Federalism is re-emerging, and the smallest unit of government is the individual and the family. This, too, is re-emerging after decades of dormancy.

As Japanese Admiral Isokuru Yamamoto said, after Pearl Harbor … “I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.”

I sense this has just happened. We have a wonderful country, the greatest single force for good in all human history. We have closed our borders, with good reason, yet we have top medical people now assisting North Korea in their response to the virus.

Many things have been re-set, and will never be the same.


I can say that where I live people are also rising to the occasion. Our government too is showing signs of sense: restaurants can only do takeout but now they can include alcoholic drinks!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Daverz on March 26, 2020, 07:31:16 PM
Something from a guy named Bart Hall, whom I have never heard of.

I can say that where I live people are also rising to the occasion. Our government too is showing signs of sense: restaurants can only do takeout but now they can include alcoholic drinks!

We've been able to get alcohol delivered here in California for a few years via services like Instacart and Doordash.  Amazon Fresh is now doing it, too.  You have to present your I.D. for scanning, though.  I clean my I.D. with Clorox spray and put it under the doormat so I don't have to hand it to the shopper.

Pot dispensaries will also deliver, but I haven't tried that.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 26, 2020, 07:39:22 PM

Quote
GM and Ford have said “hold our cars and watch this — we can make ventilators where we were just making car parts, starting next week” — by re-engineering seat ventilators which their engineers hacked together for a new purpose. In under a week.


They can theoretically make them, but they require a government contract to guarantee such a large order, which is not happening - as Andy Slavitt talks about in that podcast I linked to.

Furthermore:

Trump questions need for 30,000 ventilators in New York (https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/489789-trump-questions-need-for-30000-ventilators-in-new-york)

"President Trump on Thursday questioned whether New York will actually need the tens of thousands of ventilators the state's leaders have said will be required to handle the expected number of coronavirus cases there.

The president phoned into Sean Hannity's show on Fox News, where he swiped at the governors of Michigan and Washington state and cast doubt on the need for mass ventilator production to meet the demand of certain states.

"I have a feeling that a lot of the numbers that are being said in some areas are just bigger than they’re going to be," Trump said on "Hannity."

"I don’t believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators. You know, you go into major hospitals, sometimes they’ll have two ventilators. And now all of a sudden they're saying, 'can we order 30,000 ventilators?'"

"Look, it’s a bad situation," he added. "We haven’t seen anything like it. But the end result is we have to get back to work and I think we can start by opening up certain parts of the country."

The president compared purchasing a ventilator to purchasing a car, calling the machines "very expensive" and "very intricate."

"And you know they’d say, like Gov. Cuomo and others, they’d say we want 30,000 of them. Thirty thousand?" Trump said. "Think of this, you know you go to hospitals that have one in a hospital and now all of a sudden everyone’s asking for these vast numbers."

The comments come as governors across the country are pleading with the federal government to provide critical medical supplies to meet the increasing need of resources as coronavirus cases continue to climb. "[...]
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: GioCar on March 26, 2020, 10:50:18 PM
....The comments come as governors across the country are pleading with the federal government to provide critical medical supplies to meet the increasing need of resources as coronavirus cases continue to climb. "[...]

BTW last day the US overcame China and Italy in the number of active cases...

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR0nDjYpnPRuRbgiGPiDCwhQo8OZWf8w8KMC9fYZ_WYvwLW2zzPGBMEtm90#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Trump finally reached his "America First". No funny, I know, but the sad truth...
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 12:34:06 AM
Neil Ferguson said ...

the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought

"Slightly" more? Ask Italy! Ask Spain! Heck, ask US as of late! This bloody virus is much more contagious than a common flu, and that's the biggest problem.

I don't know who this Neil Ferguson is but this statement makes me clear he's either an idiot or a liar.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 27, 2020, 12:45:00 AM
Yesterday I had to teach my first 'online lesson'. At one point it all went horribly wrong and instead of showing them a painting by Délacroix I showed them a full list of my private school emails!
 ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 12:53:04 AM
Yesterday I had to teach my first 'online lesson'. At one point it all went horribly wrong and instead of showing them a painting by Délacroix I showed them a full list of my private school emails!
 ::)

Then you'd better stop watching porn for a while, who knows what you might show them.  :P
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 27, 2020, 01:06:08 AM
Quote
Virus ALERT

The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent virus threat and have therefore raised their threat level from “Miffed” to “Peeved.” Soon, though, level may be raised yet again to “Irritated” or even “A Bit Cross.”  The English have not been “A Bit Cross” since the blitz in 1940 when tea supplies nearly ran out.

The virus has been re-categorized from “Tiresome” to “A Bloody Nuisance.” The last time the British issued a “Bloody Nuisance” warning level was in 1588, when threatened by the Spanish Armada.

The Scots have raised their threat level from “Pissed Off” to “Let's Get the Bastard.” They don't have any other levels. This is the reason they have been used on the front line of the British army for the last 300 years.

The French government announced yesterday that it has raised its alert level from “Run” to “Hide.” The only two higher levels in France are “Collaborate” and “Surrender.” The rise was precipitated by a recent fire that destroyed France's white flag factory, effectively paralyzing the country's military capability.

Italy has increased the alert level from “Shout Loudly and Excitedly” to “Elaborate Military Posturing.” Two more levels remain: “Ineffective Combat Operations” and “Change Sides.”

The Germans have increased their alert state from “Disdainful Arrogance” to “Dress in Uniform and Sing Marching Songs.” They also have two higher levels: “Invade a Neighbour” and “Lose.”

Belgians, on the other hand, are all on holiday as usual; the only threat they are worried about is NATO pulling out of Brussels.

The Spanish are all excited to see their new submarines ready to deploy. These beautifully designed subs have glass bottoms so the new Spanish navy can get a really, good look at the old Spanish navy.

Australia, meanwhile, has raised its alert level from “No worries” to “She'll be alright, Mate.” Two more escalation levels remain: “Crikey! I think we'll need to cancel the barbie this weekend!” and “The barbie is cancelled.” So far, no situation has ever warranted use of the final escalation level.

The Russians have said “It’s not us”
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 01:09:43 AM
^^^ Funny at first sight, but given the context and the death toll not funny at all I'm afraid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 27, 2020, 01:14:11 AM
"Slightly" more? Ask Italy! Ask Spain! Heck, ask US as of late! This bloody virus is much more contagious than a common flu, and that's the biggest problem.

I don't know who this Neil Ferguson is but this statement makes me clear he's either an idiot or a liar.

Neil Ferguson: coronavirus expert who is working on despite symptoms
Epidemiologist is taking on a marathon of mathematical modelling at sprint speed (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/neil-ferguson-coronavirus-expert-who-is-working-on-despite-symptoms)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 01:17:13 AM
Neil Ferguson: coronavirus expert who is working on despite symptoms
Epidemiologist is taking on a marathon of mathematical modelling at sprint speed (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/neil-ferguson-coronavirus-expert-who-is-working-on-despite-symptoms)

Thanks. My comment still stands. "Slightly" more, good grief!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 27, 2020, 01:19:20 AM
Let me mention something which crossed my mind, it may be a mistaken impression, but the Church is silent about this! And as far as I can see so are the Muslim, Hindu and Jewish equivalents. Religions are traditionally there to help us through, but as far as I can see, they’ve taken a back seat on this one. Is this because God’s finally kicked the bucket?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 01:30:13 AM
Let me mention something which crossed my mind, it may be a mistaken impression, but the Church is silent about this!

Which Church you mean? The Pope and the RCC have regularly spoken about the situation and held many divine offices and prayers. Two days ago an international ceremony was officiated at Fatima, Portugal. Today the Pope will officiate a special liturgy in the St. Peter's Square, no public attendance of course. The Romanian Orthodox Church and the Roman Catholic Archbishoprics in Romania have done the same, for two weks now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 27, 2020, 01:30:26 AM
Thanks. My comment still stands. "Slightly" more, good grief!

"Slightly more" he meant than the already horrible figure he modeled for Britain even with lockdown, which he put at 20,000 vs an estimated half million with the "herd immunity" approach.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 01:38:20 AM
"Slightly more" he meant than the already horrible figure he modeled for Britain even with lockdown, which he put at 20,000 vs an estimated half million with the "herd immunity" approach.

I don't get it. If he initially estimated 20,000 and then corrected to half million, then an increase from 20,000 to 500,000 is hardlly "slightly", it's dramatic. If he intially estimated 500,000 and then corrected to 20,000 the phrase makes no sense whatever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 27, 2020, 01:39:33 AM
Is this because God’s finally kicked the bucket?

No, on the contrary he is swinging a cat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Que on March 27, 2020, 01:41:52 AM
Let me mention something which crossed my mind, it may be a mistaken impression, but the Church is silent about this! And as far as I can see so are the Muslim, Hindu and Jewish equivalents. Religions are traditionally there to help us through, but as far as I can see, they’ve taken a back seat on this one. Is this because God’s finally kicked the bucket?

No worries, there is a magical holy crucifix to protect Rome:

(https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/200316121328-01-pope-francis-crucifix-0315-exlarge-169.jpg)

Pope Francis prays ast San Marcello al Corso church in Rome, home to a crucifix which believers say helped to end an outbreak of the plague in 1522

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/16/europe/pope-francis-prayer-coronavirus-plague-crucifix-intl/index.html

Q
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 27, 2020, 01:48:05 AM
I don't get it. If he initially estimated 20,000 and then corrected to half million, then an increase from 20,000 to 500,000 is hardlly "slightly", it's dramatic. If he intially estimated 500,000 and then corrected to 20,000 the phrase makes no sense whatever.

500,000 was his model for the do nothing and let the elderly and sick just die approach.

20,000 was his model for the social distancing and lockdown approach - which he revised slightly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 27, 2020, 01:53:42 AM
Which Church you mean? The Pope and the RCC have regularly spoken about the situation and held many divine offices and prayers. Two days ago an international ceremony was officiated at Fatima, Portugal. Today the Pope will officiate a special liturgy in the St. Peter's Square, no public attendance of course. The Romanian Orthodox Church and the Roman Catholic Archbishoprics in Romania have done the same, for two weks now.

OK it's just me who hasn't picked up on it. It's interesting philosophically of course, because it's The Problem of Evil.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 01:54:40 AM
OK it's just me who hasn't picked up on it. It's interesting philosophically of course, because it's The Problem of Evil.

Yes. Why does an omnipotent and benevolent God allow evil to exist? Unsolvable in human terms.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Que on March 27, 2020, 02:29:33 AM
The high quality contributions on Corona from The Financial Times are free to read:

https://www.ft.com/coronavirusfree

The latest numbers: https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Q
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 27, 2020, 03:29:11 AM
Boris Johnson has now tested positive for Coronavirus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 03:32:30 AM
Boris Johnson has now tested positive for Coronavirus.

Got it from Charles, I presume.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: BasilValentine on March 27, 2020, 05:07:29 AM
Is it really trying to take a clip of him saying "I like this stuff" to make it seem like he likes the virus? LOL.

No, it's not. In the context of the ad it's clear he is bragging about his mastery of epidemiology, that experts are surprised at his expertise. Moreover, he did clearly state that the coronavirus crisis was a democrat hoax.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 27, 2020, 05:15:10 AM
Yesterday I had to teach my first 'online lesson'. At one point it all went horribly wrong and instead of showing them a painting by Délacroix I showed them a full list of my private school emails!
 ::)
Hang in there Jeffrey; things will get better!

Trust that Kitty hasn't (Yet?) learned how to tap dance on your keyboard?  ;)

Best wishes,

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 27, 2020, 06:00:59 AM
"Slightly" more? Ask Italy! Ask Spain! Heck, ask US as of late! This bloody virus is much more contagious than a common flu, and that's the biggest problem.

I don't know who this Neil Ferguson is but this statement makes me clear he's either an idiot or a liar.

You are misunderstanding what he said and misunderstanding what he means by transmissible. He did the initial UK model predicting 500k dead if no action was taken. He recently ran a new model to assess the impact of the UK lockdown. Under lockdown his model says 20k dead. This was misrepresented by idiots as him backtracking and disavowing the earlier prediction. So he had to clarify to stop their lies. In his clarification he said the virus seems even more transmissible than previously thought.
In short he is saying two things. If you don’t take effective measures it will swamp you, and so far the British measures seem effective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 07:05:03 AM
500,000 was his model for the do nothing and let the elderly and sick just die approach.

20,000 was his model for the social distancing and lockdown approach - which he revised slightly.

You are misunderstanding what he said and misunderstanding what he means by transmissible. He did the initial UK model predicting 500k dead if no action was taken. He recently ran a new model to assess the impact of the UK lockdown. Under lockdown his model says 20k dead. This was misrepresented by idiots as him backtracking and disavowing the earlier prediction. So he had to clarify to stop their lies. In his clarification he said the virus seems even more transmissible than previously thought.
In short he is saying two things. If you don’t take effective measures it will swamp you, and so far the British measures seem effective.

Okay, guys, I stand corrected. My apologies to Mr. Ferguson for having publicly insulted him.  :D

I mistook for him for a quasi-denialist and I have no patience for such people.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 27, 2020, 07:29:11 AM
Okay, guys, I stand corrected. My apologies to Mr. Ferguson for having publicly insulted him.  :D

I mistook for him for a quasi-denialist and I have no patience for such people.
I spent hours yesterday arguing with denialists who were lying about what this guy said. I just assumed everyone knew the headlines. I thought it would help to post his own words  :)

The denialists really worry me. Not because they will make policy, they won’t, but because they will convince people the danger is overstated. Then you get people not following the “distancing” or lockdown or quarantine or whatever we call it.

We do need a new word! None of them quite fit this quite new situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 27, 2020, 07:39:25 AM
OK it's just me who hasn't picked up on it. It's interesting philosophically of course, because it's The Problem of Evil.

     You can't play baseball without a concept of baseball. You can't play evil without a concept of evil.

     You evaluate a concept according to what use you can make of it. No inhuman solution will arrive to rescue us from the imperfections of our own concept use. Like money, another such concept, it's endogenous. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/cheesy.gif)



We do need a new word! None of them quite fit this quite new situation.


     Eeeeeeeviiiiillll!!!

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 27, 2020, 07:46:52 AM
Yes. Why does an omnipotent and benevolent God allow evil to exist? Unsolvable in human terms.

Quite solvable.  Humans can not choose good unless we have an ability to choose evil, and humans with free will are better than humans who have no will.

As to Mandryka's original question, the Jewish component is divided between faith healing, the idea that plagues are divine pumishment when communities fall into sin so we need repentance and prayer, and strict instructions from rabbis to observe social distancing and all public health orders even at the cost of traditional communal prayer and ceremonies.  A lot of this is taking place online, even among the faith healers,  so it's easily missable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 27, 2020, 07:47:42 AM

We do need a new word! None of them quite fit this quite new situation.

It's already in use: COVIDIOTS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 07:56:41 AM
Quite solvable.  Humans can not choose good unless we have an ability to choose evil, and humans with free will are better than humans who have no will.

This is correct but doesn't apply in this case. Nobody chose to be infected; nobody chose to spread the virus; it's a "natural" occurying phenomenon, a "natural" evil not a man-made one (or is it?  ;D ).

Besides, the very concept of "evil" can be quite problematic as drogulus pointed out.

Anyway, the last thing I want and need is a debate on theodicy. I'm done on the topic.  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 08:01:53 AM
The denialists really worry me. Not because they will make policy, they won’t, but because they will convince people the danger is overstated. Then you get people not following the “distancing” or lockdown or quarantine or whatever we call it.

Indeed this is the greatest danger, and younger people are most at risk in this respect.

Blaise Pascal's famous dictum is very apt in these times: All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone.  ;D

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 27, 2020, 08:05:04 AM
It's already in use: COVIDIOTS.
Oh, I use that already. I used it a lot yesterday after I finally lost patience! I meant for the lockdown/quarantine, which isn’t quite either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 27, 2020, 08:24:07 AM
Oh, I use that already. I used it a lot yesterday after I finally lost patience! I meant for the lockdown/quarantine, which isn’t quite either.

The official parlance here is "stay at home order".
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 09:07:31 AM
I have lost of music, I have lots of books, I have internet connection, I can buy beer or wine any time I go shopping --- I can stay home for 2 months without problem. I miss my wife and son, though, they are at a different, safer location.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 27, 2020, 09:20:32 AM
I have lost of music, I have lots of books, I have internet connection, I can buy beer or wine any time I go shopping --- I can stay home for 2 months without problem. I miss my wife and son, though, they are at a different, safer location.

Not at all the same, of course, but we're here for you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 09:23:09 AM
Not at all the same, of course, but we're here for you.

I know and I take the opportunity daily, obviously. Thanks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 27, 2020, 09:29:38 AM
Not at all the same, of course, but we're here for you.

One of the significant cultural consequences of this may well be a shift in people’s view of social media. I’m hearing lots  of people saying that they’re discovering, due to confinement,  that the internet is a way of staying in human contact which is enriching their lives in unexpected ways.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 09:30:37 AM
One of the significant cultural consequences of this may well be a shift in people’s view of social media. I’m hearing lots  of people saying that they’re discovering, due to confinement,  that the internet is a way of staying in human contact which is enriching their lives in unexpected ways.

We GMGers have discovered that long time ago.  :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 27, 2020, 09:35:07 AM
Yes. Why does an omnipotent and benevolent God allow evil to exist? Unsolvable in human terms.

I find this the most disturbing of questions. As I’ve grown older and more experienced, I’ve become much more aware of the good and bad things in life. The bad things overwhelm me if I think about them.  I hate the idea that there are terrible illnesses for example, and every time I discover a new one, I have difficulty sleeping.  It’s as if the universe can act like the worst torturer, and that makes me feel both angry and vulnerable.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 09:37:39 AM
I find this the most disturbing of questions. As I’ve grown older and more experienced, I’ve become much more aware of the good and bad things in life. The bad things overwhelm me if I think about them.  I hate the idea that there are terrible illnesses for example, and every time I discover a new one, I have difficulty sleeping.  It’s as if the universe can act like the worst torturer, and that makes me feel both angry and vulnerable.

You could really use reading Pascal's Meditations. Mandatory reading imo, especially in these times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 27, 2020, 09:41:12 AM
You could really use reading Pascal's Meditations.

I’ll wager you’re right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 09:41:34 AM
I’ll wager you’re right.

 ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 27, 2020, 09:52:00 AM
I have lost of music, I have lots of books, I have internet connection, I can buy beer or wine any time I go shopping --- I can stay home for 2 months without problem. I miss my wife and son, though, they are at a different, safer location.
Pornhub is free this month.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 09:54:44 AM
Pornhub is free this month.

How do you know it?  ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: mc ukrneal on March 27, 2020, 10:01:48 AM
How do you know it?  ;D
Just goes there for the articles...
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 10:05:04 AM
Just goes there for the articles...

Tips & Advices  ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: ritter on March 27, 2020, 10:10:46 AM
I read about that in the news....really!  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 10:16:17 AM
I read about that in the news....really!  :)

Then jokes aside I'de better take the offer while it lasts.  :laugh:
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: BasilValentine on March 27, 2020, 10:18:24 AM
How do you know it?  ;D

Probably because it's always free?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 10:22:28 AM
Probably because it's always free?

How do you know it?  ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 27, 2020, 10:35:11 AM
I find this the most disturbing of questions.



     Evil is not a problem for termites even though their sociability is a necessary feature for an evil concept to apply. The sufficient condition is the kind of consciousness involved in human level sociability. We find concepts like good and evil useful, but that use function isn't a recognition of a disembodied "real evil" that can't be solved.

     Lions are not in a condition where they can't recognize real evil out there in the world, any more than they are unaware of "real baseball". Lion games don't have concepts in them. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/cheesy.gif)

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: greg on March 27, 2020, 10:46:42 AM
I heard that stimulus package just got approved (for the US). Hopefully other countries are doing the same.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 27, 2020, 11:01:49 AM
I’ll wager you’re right.

*chortle*
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 27, 2020, 11:15:01 AM
(https://www.pinkfishmedia.net/forum/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2FEUHGreGWsAAio0r%3Fformat%3Djpg%26name%3Dmedium&hash=2fa78b359c6d363055229329b9c58902)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 27, 2020, 11:53:19 AM
Has anyone got a model which says by age

% with disease
% of above needing hospitalisation
% of above needing ventilation
% of above surviving with no long term consequences
% of above surviving with important long term consequences
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 27, 2020, 11:56:23 AM
We GMGers have discovered that long time ago.  :D

+ 1
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 27, 2020, 11:58:41 AM
I’ll wager you’re right.

Nicely played, sieur!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 12:06:25 PM
Has anyone got a model which says by age

% with disease
% of above needing hospitalisation
% of above needing ventilation
% of above surviving with no long term consequences
% of above surviving with important long term consequences

Not me. And I wouldn't want a model but an official statistics, split by age groups and corrected for pre-existent serious, even life-threatening, condition(s). Drogulus has provided many pages ago one such, although apparently not corrected for those factors.

From what I've seen and learned on the media during the last two weeks, the mortality in itself is (not very much higher) than usual but the contagiousness is, very much so --- and this is the biggest problem. Imagine 10,000 cases spread over a few months or the same amount spread over just one month.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: North Star on March 27, 2020, 12:27:09 PM
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
Quote
So far this flu season, about 1% of people in the United States have developed symptoms severe enough to be hospitalized. And the overall hospitalization rate in the U.S. this season is 61 hospitalizations per 100,000 people.

....

Another recent study, considered the largest on COVID-19 cases to date, researchers from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Protection, analyzed 44,672 confirmed cases in China between Dec. 31, 2019 and Feb. 11, 2020. Of those cases, 80.9% (or 36,160 cases) were considered mild, 13.8% (6,168 cases) severe and 4.7% (2,087) critical. "Critical cases were those that exhibited respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure," the researchers wrote in the paper published in China CDC Weekly.

A recent study of COVID-19 cases in the United States found that, among 4,226 reported cases , at least 508 people, or 12% were hospitalized. However, the study, published March 18 in the CDC journal Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) is preliminary, and the researchers note that data on hospitalizations were missing for a substantial number of patients.

It's important to note that, because respiratory viruses cause similar symptoms, it can be difficult to distinguish different respiratory viruses based on symptoms alone, according to WHO.

Death rate

The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times.

Though the death rate for COVID-19 is unclear, most research suggests it is higher than that of the seasonal flu.

In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. Another study of about 1,100 hospitalized patients in China, published Feb. 28 in the New England Journal of Medicine, found that the overall death rate was slightly lower, around 1.4%.

Still, the death rate for COVID-19 appears to vary by location and an individual's age, among other factors. For instance, in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the death rate reached 2.9%; in other provinces of China, that rate was just 0.4%, according to the China CDC Weekly study. In addition, older adults have been hit the hardest. The death rate soars to 14.8% in those 80 and older; among those ages 70 to 79, the COVID-19 death rate in China seems to be about 8%; it’s 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 1.3% for 50 to 59; 0.4% for the age group 40 to 49; and just 0.2% for people ages 10 to 39. No deaths in children under 9 have been reported.

A report published March 13 in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases adjusted for the potential time delay between hospitalization and death among cases in China. The authors estimated that, as of Feb. 11, the death rate from COVID-19 was as high as 12% in Wuhan, 4% in Hubei Province and 0.9% in the rest of China.

In the CDC's MMWR study, 45% of hospitalizations, 53% of admissions to the intensive care unit (ICU), and 80% of deaths associated with COVID-19 were among adults aged 65 years and older.

Virus transmission

The measure scientists use to determine how easily a virus spreads is known as the "basic reproduction number," or R0 (pronounced R-nought). This is an estimate of the average number of people who catch the virus from a single infected person, Live science previously reported. The flu has an R0 value of about 1.3, according to The New York Times.

Researchers are still working to determine the R0 for COVID-19.  Preliminary studies have estimated an R0 value for the new coronavirus to be between 2 and 3, according to the JAMA review study published Feb. 28. This means each infected person has spread the virus to an average of 2 to 3 people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: BasilValentine on March 27, 2020, 12:28:38 PM
How do you know it?  ;D

How do you think?  ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 27, 2020, 01:23:03 PM
Hang in there Jeffrey; things will get better!

Trust that Kitty hasn't (Yet?) learned how to tap dance on your keyboard?  ;)

Best wishes,

PD

Thanks PD. I'm aware of and grateful for your supportive comments. My four Year 13 students, during an informal chat online, asked to see the cat so I had to swing the laptop round so that they could see him. Their comment was 'He's enormous!'
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: greg on March 27, 2020, 01:46:38 PM
I heard that stimulus package just got approved (for the US). Hopefully other countries are doing the same.
Anyone else out there who is able to WFH and still getting $1200?

Me! 🤩😆

...well at least for some it's a stimulus. But for a lot of people, they will have to wait weeks, miss this month's rent, and spend it all for next month. Seems there should be more to this if there isn't already...
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 27, 2020, 01:56:10 PM
Interesting article on the USA government’s response to the Covid19:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-us-is-still-exceptional--but-now-for-its-incompetence/2020/03/26/4d6d1ade-6f9b-11ea-a3ec-70d7479d83f0_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-us-is-still-exceptional--but-now-for-its-incompetence/2020/03/26/4d6d1ade-6f9b-11ea-a3ec-70d7479d83f0_story.html)

. I find it hard to fault any specific country’s response to something that is unprecedented (re: the spanish flu epidemic: if something’s older than most people alive, it’s too ancient to serve as a benchmark). However, we will have lots of hard earned lessons to learn from what went wrong in many different places. Theses will be written for the coming decades... :-X
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Ratliff on March 27, 2020, 02:50:45 PM
Anyone else out there who is able to WFH and still getting $1200?

Me! 🤩😆

...well at least for some it's a stimulus. But for a lot of people, they will have to wait weeks, miss this month's rent, and spend it all for next month. Seems there should be more to this if there isn't already...

The state of California has banned all evictions, so you don't pay your rent. Your landlord goes bankrupt, but can get a business loan. How you get food is another thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 27, 2020, 03:04:53 PM
Thanks PD. I'm aware of and grateful for your supportive comments. My four Year 13 students, during an informal chat online, asked to see the cat so I had to swing the laptop round so that they could see him. Their comment was 'He's enormous!'
Oh, my!  Trust by that that they meant he has a big frame vs. he's been eating too much kibble?   :)

So how old are four years...trying to remember how your educational system works!   :-[  May I ask too as to what subjects you teach them (or try to in any event  ;) ).

I had hoped at one point in time to acquire a male BSH kitten or cat...instead ended up with a female on the small size.  She was still a great kitty...sweet, smart, affectionate....and an exceptional mouser! 

Best,

PD

p.s.  Almost forgot to post this (re the thread):  At least there is some tiny bit of good coming out of the crisis:  https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52065140

Maybe it will help us all to consider the ramifications of how we are living and working and how it effects the environment and give us some impetus to change more things once this is over?  One can only hope....
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: greg on March 27, 2020, 03:10:55 PM
The state of California has banned all evictions, so you don't pay your rent. Your landlord goes bankrupt, but can get a business loan. How you get food is another thing.
That's good considering the price of rent there. So what they get ($1200 for most) should more than cover food and regular expenses. They should do the same in NYC.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 27, 2020, 03:24:49 PM
Global condom shortage looms as coronavirus shuts down production
World’s biggest producer says lockdown has already caused shortfall of 100m condoms (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/global-condom-shortage-coronavirus-shuts-down-production)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 27, 2020, 03:40:24 PM
Global condom shortage looms as coronavirus shuts down production
World’s biggest producer says lockdown has already caused shortfall of 100m condoms (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/global-condom-shortage-coronavirus-shuts-down-production)

Shouldn’t be a problem with social distancing. No?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Iota on March 27, 2020, 03:43:17 PM
Yesterday I had to teach my first 'online lesson'. At one point it all went horribly wrong and instead of showing them a painting by Délacroix I showed them a full list of my private school emails!
 ::)

 ;D  It could of course be seen as an instructive introduction to Art Trouvee ... Anyway, I wish you bonne chance, I imagine you'll only get better at it.

I too have been doing some video-calling for work that I usually do face to face. I find I'm having fine tune things  to virtually communicate the same message I would do in person. It's actually been rather interesting and instructive, if at times hard work.

Here in London figures are climbing and we're warned of a storm of cases approaching, these are certainly uneasy days. But it's as nothing compared to what health workers all around the country are facing every day. Last night in our street, like many across the country, we were all out at our front doors at 8pm clapping and whooping to try to show how much we appreciate their heroic efforts. Not much I know, but I was very glad to be there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 27, 2020, 03:45:57 PM
Shouldn’t be a problem with social distancing. No?

I dunno...with more couples stuck home together there might be more demand. Or less if there's also more arguments.

but more seriously:

'We fear, but have to work': isolation not an option for the poor of Nairobi
As coronavirus arrives in Kenya, retreat behind closed doors is only an alternative for those who can afford it (https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/mar/27/we-fear-but-have-to-work-isolation-not-an-option-for-the-poor-of-nairobi-coronavirus)


Vital drug for people with lupus running out after unproven Covid-19 link
Italy and France now prescribing hydroxychloroquine for coronavirus despite fact its effectiveness is unknown (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/vital-drug-people-lupus-coronavirus-covid-19-link-hydroxychloroquine)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 27, 2020, 03:53:18 PM
Thanks PD. I'm aware of and grateful for your supportive comments. My four Year 13 students, during an informal chat online, asked to see the cat so I had to swing the laptop round so that they could see him. Their comment was 'He's enormous!'

Warm thoughts, Jeffrey!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 27, 2020, 04:59:00 PM


They can theoretically make them, but they require a government contract to guarantee such a large order, which is not happening - as Andy Slavitt talks about in that podcast I linked to

Paperwork is easier than retooling. Trump invoked the defence production act today.

There is another shortage: trained personnel.  I expect someone will tell me you cannot train enough people, and I expect they will be wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 28, 2020, 02:17:24 AM
Oh, my!  Trust by that that they meant he has a big frame vs. he's been eating too much kibble?   :)

So how old are four years...trying to remember how your educational system works!   :-[  May I ask too as to what subjects you teach them (or try to in any event  ;) ).

I had hoped at one point in time to acquire a male BSH kitten or cat...instead ended up with a female on the small size.  She was still a great kitty...sweet, smart, affectionate....and an exceptional mouser! 

Best,

PD

p.s.  Almost forgot to post this (re the thread):  At least there is some tiny bit of good coming out of the crisis:  https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52065140

Maybe it will help us all to consider the ramifications of how we are living and working and how it effects the environment and give us some impetus to change more things once this is over?  One can only hope....
Hi PD
I teach Year 8 (12/13 year olds), Year 12 (16/17) and Year 13 (17/18).
I teach History of Art and History. I'm also a school counsellor (as in therapy).
Re: the cat. Combination of large frame and excessive greed. For example, today he managed to convince both my wife and myself, at different times, that he had not had breakfast. So he ended up with two breakfasts. Terrible! He is the only one of the family totally unaffected by the Coronavirus crisis, except that we are around more than usual, which I think he likes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 28, 2020, 03:24:26 AM
Warm thoughts, Jeffrey!
Thanks very much Karl and the same to you. Just spoke to my daughter on the phone (she's in London). She almost certainly has Coronavirus now and was coughing a lot. So, self-isolation for her.  :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 28, 2020, 04:28:45 AM
A withering editorial on BJ here

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/opinion/coronavirus-uk-boris-johnson.html?auth=login-email&login=email

Quote
The problem is that he has been preparing for the wrong part. The man came to power playing Falstaff, a double-dealing, comically entertaining, shameless rogue; now he is suddenly onstage as Henry V, the wartime king whose solemn judgment, intense focus, charisma and conviction must lead his nation in a time of crisis. Mr. Johnson does not know how to play that part, and it shows.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 28, 2020, 06:34:48 AM
Hi PD
I teach Year 8 (12/13 year olds), Year 12 (16/17) and Year 13 (17/18).
I teach History of Art and History. I'm also a school counsellor (as in therapy).
Re: the cat. Combination of large frame and excessive greed. For example, today he managed to convince both my wife and myself, at different times, that he had not had breakfast. So he ended up with two breakfasts. Terrible! He is the only one of the family totally unaffected by the Coronavirus crisis, except that we are around more than usual, which I think he likes.
Hmmm....a lot of extra playtime then for that cat (fun and burn off some of those calories).  Perhaps figure out a system (or ask each other?) to know who has done what...that and use a measuring scoop (ask vet for advice if kitty needs to lose weight).[/quote]  At one point in time, I had two cats (one a kitten and the other several years old) and the older cat loved to eat....hard to keep her out of the other ones food!   ::)

Thanks very much Karl and the same to you. Just spoke to my daughter on the phone (she's in London). She almost certainly has Coronavirus now and was coughing a lot. So, self-isolation for her.  :(
Oh, no.  I do hope that she gets better and soon!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 28, 2020, 07:38:56 AM
Hmmm....a lot of extra playtime then for that cat (fun and burn off some of those calories).  Perhaps figure out a system (or ask each other?) to know who has done what...that and use a measuring scoop (ask vet for advice if kitty needs to lose weight).  At one point in time, I had two cats (one a kitten and the other several years old) and the older cat loved to eat....hard to keep her out of the other ones food!   ::)
 Oh, no.  I do hope that she gets better and soon!

+ 1
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: steve ridgway on March 28, 2020, 07:46:19 AM
Hi PD
I teach Year 8 (12/13 year olds), Year 12 (16/17) and Year 13 (17/18).
I teach History of Art and History. I'm also a school counsellor (as in therapy).

Interesting - where does the history of art end?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 28, 2020, 09:04:41 AM
Hmmm....a lot of extra playtime then for that cat (fun and burn off some of those calories).  Perhaps figure out a system (or ask each other?) to know who has done what...that and use a measuring scoop (ask vet for advice if kitty needs to lose weight).  At one point in time, I had two cats (one a kitten and the other several years old) and the older cat loved to eat....hard to keep her out of the other ones food!   ::)
 Oh, no.  I do hope that she gets better and soon!
Thanks PD and Karl,
I just spoke to her on the phone and she sounded ok if coughing a lot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 28, 2020, 09:07:08 AM
Interesting - where does the history of art end?
I'm not sure if this is a specific or philosophical question. For myself I teach mainly 19th Century European Art, Neo-Classicism, Romanticism, Realism, Symbolism etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 28, 2020, 09:33:45 AM
I'm not sure if this is a specific or philosophical question.


Philosophical is more interesting!

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 28, 2020, 09:38:27 AM
https://twitter.com/petershankman/status/1243611688659750914

Very good! Mary Poppins. Only yanks could do this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 28, 2020, 10:05:24 AM
Interesting - where does the history of art end?

Probably the same point where modern history ends.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 28, 2020, 10:28:01 AM
Probably the same point where modern history ends.
And we have art older than any history too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 28, 2020, 11:16:30 AM
Interesting - where does the history of art end?

Proceeding in the spirit of Fukuyama, the end of history of art is when the struggle for recognition, the willingness to risk one's life for a purely abstract goal, the worldwide ideological struggle that called forth daring, courage, imagination, and idealism, is replaced by economic calculation, the endless solving of technical problems, environmental concerns, and the satisfaction of sophisticated consumer demands.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 28, 2020, 12:40:05 PM
Trump is considering a quarantine of parts of New York and other areas.

Mandatory quarantine is an extreme and brutal measure. But I think there are two rules
Basic rule 1:if you are going to do it, earlier is better. Once you decide act immediately.
Basic rule 2: don’t announce it might happen as then some will flee. Do it, rule it out, or STFU.

Rhode Island is using troops to contain NewYorkers already.

It sounds like time. Ugh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Que on March 28, 2020, 01:12:12 PM
Trump is considering a quarantine of parts of New York and other areas.

Mandatory quarantine is an extreme and brutal measure. But I think there are two rules
Basic rule 1:if you are going to do it, earlier is better. Once you decide act immediately.
Basic rule 2: don't announce it might happen as then some will flee. Do it, rule it out, or STFU.

Rhode Island is using troops to contain NewYorkers already.

It sounds like time. Ugh.

It would be a rather useless and foolish measure...
The virus has already spread throughout the country, and it's not like NY is the source of the infection that can be contained.
As you point out, it will lead to people fleeing the area and taking the virus with them.
Same happened to people from Northern Italy fleeing to their vacation homes in Southern Italy, where the virus is now on the rise.

Q
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 28, 2020, 02:07:10 PM
Misinformation on social media:

Hundreds dead in Iran after consuming methanol thinking it was coronavirus protection (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/hundreds-dead-in-iran-after-consuming-methanol-thinking-it-was-coronavirus-protection/ar-BB11NijN)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 28, 2020, 02:15:59 PM
Philosophical is more interesting!
I agree!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 28, 2020, 02:17:05 PM
Probably the same point where modern history ends.
Agreed  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 28, 2020, 04:12:54 PM
'Nature is taking back Venice': wildlife returns to tourist-free city
With the cruise ships gone and the souvenir stalls closed, the coronavirus lockdown has transformed La Serenissima’s waterways (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/20/nature-is-taking-back-venice-wildlife-returns-to-tourist-free-city)


As the rest of Europe lives under lockdown, Sweden keeps calm and carries on
All its neighbours have shut up shop to beat coronavirus but the Swedes insist ‘we are not in quarantine’. Is that the right approach? (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/as-the-rest-of-europe-lives-under-lockdown-sweden-keeps-calm-and-carries-on)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 28, 2020, 06:13:40 PM
'Nature is taking back Venice': wildlife returns to tourist-free city
With the cruise ships gone and the souvenir stalls closed, the coronavirus lockdown has transformed La Serenissima’s waterways (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/20/nature-is-taking-back-venice-wildlife-returns-to-tourist-free-city)


As the rest of Europe lives under lockdown, Sweden keeps calm and carries on
All its neighbours have shut up shop to beat coronavirus but the Swedes insist ‘we are not in quarantine’. Is that the right approach? (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/as-the-rest-of-europe-lives-under-lockdown-sweden-keeps-calm-and-carries-on)
Nice to see how nature is coming back; I had also posted a link to how the air quality across Europe and other areas seemed to be improving due to lack of manufacturing/driving, etc.  I'll try and find it and link it again here.

I had posted this earlier...perhaps no one read it (as there were no comments)?  Anyway, here it is again:  "p.s.  Almost forgot to post this (re the thread):  At least there is some tiny bit of good coming out of the crisis:  https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52065140

Maybe it will help us all to consider the ramifications of how we are living and working and how it effects the environment and give us some impetus to change more things once this is over?  One can only hope...."

Best,

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 28, 2020, 06:34:46 PM
I hope so too. "I want to believe", like the poster says.

meanwhile...

For "ballance" and "fairness" here's a different perspective on the crisis:

Goop expert claims coronavirus doesn't exist and deaths caused by fear
Kelly Brogan says 'it's not possible to prove that any given pathogen has induced death'  (https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/goop-coronavirus-kelly-brogan-expert-contributor-md-deaths-covid-19-a9421476.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 28, 2020, 06:44:47 PM
Trump is considering a quarantine of parts of New York and other areas.

Mandatory quarantine is an extreme and brutal measure. But I think there are two rules
Basic rule 1:if you are going to do it, earlier is better. Once you decide act immediately.
Basic rule 2: don’t announce it might happen as then some will flee. Do it, rule it out, or STFU.

Rhode Island is using troops to contain NewYorkers already.

It sounds like time. Ugh.

It's an especially bad time to have a dimwitted narcissist in the White House.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 28, 2020, 08:26:36 PM
It's an especially bad time to have a dimwitted narcissist in the White House.
Worry not. I canceled my travel plans.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: steve ridgway on March 28, 2020, 09:03:28 PM
Proceeding in the spirit of Fukuyama, the end of history of art is when the struggle for recognition, the willingness to risk one's life for a purely abstract goal, the worldwide ideological struggle that called forth daring, courage, imagination, and idealism, is replaced by economic calculation, the endless solving of technical problems, environmental concerns, and the satisfaction of sophisticated consumer demands.

I looked up Fukuyama and found this: ”In the post-historical period, there will be neither art nor philosophy, just the perpetual caretaking of the museum of human history”. My own utopian daydream would be along the lines of a smaller, technologically advanced, but sustainable civilisation restoring the planet like some collection of parks and heritage museums, the golden age of each place.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 28, 2020, 11:10:22 PM
It's an especially bad time to have a dimwitted narcissist in the White House.
+1
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Christo on March 29, 2020, 01:14:07 AM
Thanks very much Karl and the same to you. Just spoke to my daughter on the phone (she's in London). She almost certainly has Coronavirus now and was coughing a lot. So, self-isolation for her.  :(

All best wishes from our family to yours, we wish your daughter to find strength in everyone loving her, and a speedy and full recovery.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 29, 2020, 01:14:50 AM
All best wishes from our family to yours, we wish your daughter to find strength in everyone loving her, and a speedy and full recovery.

+1
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 29, 2020, 03:28:58 AM
Thanks so much for the kind wishes about my daughter - which mean a lot to me.  :)
She said that she felt 'blocked up' today but was otherwise ok and last night she said that she felt better although I'm aware that the virus can appear to come and go. She said that she had all the symptoms other than a fever.

On a separate note I find the govt's resrictions on driving to a place of exercise both counter-productive and unnecessarily repressive. I'm far more likely to spread the virus to someone else or contract it by walking around the village for exercise than by getting into the car for a ten minute drive to a very large area of open space called Ashdown Forest (Christo has been to a nice pub there!) where I can walk for ages without seeing anyone or easily take steps to distance myself from other walkers, joggers or horse riders. I think this is as important for mental health as for physical health.

On a lighter note, a friend of mine phoned me yesterday (Saturday) afternoon and started the conversation by saying:

'I'm very sorry to interrupt you during the football results.'
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: 71 dB on March 29, 2020, 03:57:00 AM
I am already tired of the situation. I want back to normal. This is too crazy to be true. An animal bites someone on the Chinese wild animal market and this is the result a few months later? Utter lunacy. I am so done with the World. Too crazy for me. Medical science is 100 times too slow. You don't have 500 days to come up with a vaccine. Do it in 5!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: steve ridgway on March 29, 2020, 04:29:18 AM
On a separate note I find the govt's resrictions on driving to a place of exercise both counter-productive and unnecessarily repressive. I'm far more likely to spread the virus to someone else or contract it by walking around the village for exercise than by getting into the car for a ten minute drive to a very large area of open space called Ashdown Forest (Christo has been to a nice pub there!) where I can walk for ages without seeing anyone or easily take steps to distance myself from other walkers, joggers or horse riders. I think this is as important for mental health as for physical health.

It's not the government, the very quiet woodland park we were going to walk in this morning had been closed as had the car park for a nearby National Trust wood. We could still have used public footpaths through the NT land but we'd already done a decent walk round some nearly empty lanes and fields, just a few cyclists and dog walkers around. We could walk the dogs from the house to a couple of local parks or canal but they and the pavements on the way would have more people on them. Similarly there's a much quieter food shop on the way to that walking area compared to those near home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Marc on March 29, 2020, 06:33:12 AM
I am already tired of the situation. I want back to normal. This is too crazy to be true. An animal bites someone on the Chinese wild animal market and this is the result a few months later? Utter lunacy. I am so done with the World. Too crazy for me. Medical science is 100 times too slow. You don't have 500 days to come up with a vaccine. Do it in 5!

It proofs that we don't live in a perfect world. On this occasion, it's a sad proof, I agree about that. And it makes one feel helpless. But science and scientific research is never 'definite'. As one of my teachers once said: science is a never ending story of research, trying, testing, hypotheses, bumping your head, having to start all over again, do research again, trying, testing, et cetera. It takes time and patience.

I wish all of you the best... we can only hope that scientists and politicians come up with the best advices and hopefully… solutions, as soon as possible.

Stay safe!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 29, 2020, 07:09:52 AM
It's not the government, the very quiet woodland park we were going to walk in this morning had been closed as had the car park for a nearby National Trust wood. We could still have used public footpaths through the NT land but we'd already done a decent walk round some nearly empty lanes and fields, just a few cyclists and dog walkers around. We could walk the dogs from the house to a couple of local parks or canal but they and the pavements on the way would have more people on them. Similarly there's a much quieter food shop on the way to that walking area compared to those near home.

Yes, I find it all very frustrating.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 29, 2020, 08:01:44 AM

     Fauci said he's 'willing to bet anything' that people who recover from the new coronavirus are 'really protected from reinfection' (https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-fauci-those-who-recover-will-be-immune-2020-3)

"We don't know that for 100% certain because we haven't done the study," said Fauci, who's worked in the public health sector for more than half his life and has been the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) since 1984, advising six presidents.

In a March study (which has yet to be peer-reviewed), a group of scientists infected rhesus macaques with the novel coronavirus, let them recover, then tried to reinfect them. The first infection gave some of the monkeys a mild illness, resulting in moderate pneumonia and weight loss, but the second did not seem to affect any of them.


     Of course Fauci is probably right. It will take time to get enough information about human immunity to say for 100% certain that he is. We won't wait for that, though, as risk assessment is a business of probabilities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: steve ridgway on March 29, 2020, 08:07:30 AM
Yes, I find it all very frustrating.

I don't think there's any problem you driving to Ashdown Forest if you can keep your distance from people. Preferably if you can also park well away from other cars, I suspect any large car parks will be at risk of closure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: steve ridgway on March 29, 2020, 08:09:52 AM
I did shout across at someone this morning that our three dogs were assistance dogs - specifically social distancing ;).
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 29, 2020, 08:45:28 AM
I don't think there's any problem you driving to Ashdown Forest if you can keep your distance from people. Preferably if you can also park well away from other cars, I suspect any large car parks will be at risk of closure.
Some places have gone a bit loco, banning people taking walks entirely. It’s not radioactivity in the air.
Here the rules for walks are that if you have tested positive, have symptoms, are under treatment, or are in self isolation you must stay home. Everyone else just has to keep distance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 29, 2020, 09:21:39 AM
I don't think there's any problem you driving to Ashdown Forest if you can keep your distance from people. Preferably if you can also park well away from other cars, I suspect any large car parks will be at risk of closure.
Thanks. That's what we've been doing. I find the continuous threats of further govt restrictions very unhelpful and passive aggressive.

However, on a brighter note, having not been able to contact my daughter all day and worrying about her I noticed that she was 'online' and therefore presumably conscious! Finally I heard from her that she was feeling 'better' but had experienced difficulties 'charging her phone.'  ::) ::) >:D
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 29, 2020, 09:33:24 AM
It's not the government, the very quiet woodland park we were going to walk in this morning had been closed as had the car park for a nearby National Trust wood. We could still have used public footpaths through the NT land but we'd already done a decent walk round some nearly empty lanes and fields, just a few cyclists and dog walkers around. We could walk the dogs from the house to a couple of local parks or canal but they and the pavements on the way would have more people on them. Similarly there's a much quieter food shop on the way to that walking area compared to those near home.
I'm sorry for both of you.  I think that it's important to get outside and get a fresh breath of air...hard for those in large cities I'd imagine...unless you have a balcony?

So, Pooh and friends are all by themselves in Ashdown Forest?   ;)  Bet that it's a pretty place!  Do you have to stick to the paths on NT land or are you allowed to roam freely?

There was an article a few days ago on the BBC's website (I think that somebody provided a link here?) about problems with tons of people 'invading' a small Welsh town (which I guess is used to a fair bit of traffic during warmer weather?).  What about sheltering in place?  :(

There are a few paths along a river which I've been enjoying frequenting.  Annoyed at some of the people though as the paths are a bit narrow in some places; I saw a couple of women (on the older side) talking and walking a few feet apart....they couldn't be bothered to have even have one of them drop behind the other to allow more distance from myself (I was walking in the opposite direction).  At a grocery store the other day, probably most of the people were trying to keep some sort of distance from others but some were too lost in their own world grocery shopping as in the days of yore.

If I can get in gear here again, I hope to take a stroll around a local park.  If all else fails, I could resume my workouts with light weights and a bit of exercise in place to get the heart rate up (and those ever important endorphins) and get back to stretching?  Wouldn't be a bad thing!   :-[

Spent the morning making some soup....trying to do something healthy and distract my brain!

EDIT:  So, you are able to go to the forest?  I was typing whilst you were then Jeffrey.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 29, 2020, 09:59:32 AM
     Fauci says that lifting lockdowns is 'a matter of weeks' and depends on the availability of 15-minute coronavirus testing (https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-lifting-lockdowns-matter-of-weeks-15-minute-coronavirus-tests-2020-3)

On Friday the Food and Drug Administration approved a new COVID-19 test that delivers positive results in five minutes and negative results in 13 minutes.

The new test runs on Abbott Laboratories' ID NOW platform, which is the most common point-of-care test in the US.

After the new ID NOW COVID-19 test received FDA approval, Abbott announced that it would ramp up its production to make 50,000 units per day as early as next week. According to a spokesperson from the medical device company, the tests will be available beginning on April 1.

"When we get those tests out that you can do right away, rapid point-of-care, and do it, then I think we're going to be closer [to lifting restrictions]," Fauci said.


     Let's make it April 2nd, OK? (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/smiley.gif)

     
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 29, 2020, 10:03:47 AM

     (https://i.insider.com/5e7f8e8b2d654f3f176bc7e3?width=900&format=jpeg&auto=webp)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 29, 2020, 10:14:30 AM
I. You don't have 500 days to come up with a vaccine. Do it in 5!

Sure. Let's give people some untested fingers crossed junk that causes cancers and birth defects and God knows what else.

You go first.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: greg on March 29, 2020, 10:36:44 AM
Sure. Let's give people some untested fingers crossed junk that causes cancers and birth defects and God knows what else.

You go first.
This could be how zombies are created.

(though some people might actually look forward to living in a survival horror-type world)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Que on March 29, 2020, 11:15:05 AM
     Fauci says that lifting lockdowns is 'a matter of weeks' and depends on the availability of 15-minute coronavirus testing (https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-lifting-lockdowns-matter-of-weeks-15-minute-coronavirus-tests-2020-3)

On Friday the Food and Drug Administration approved a new COVID-19 test that delivers positive results in five minutes and negative results in 13 minutes.

The new test runs on Abbott Laboratories' ID NOW platform, which is the most common point-of-care test in the US.

After the new ID NOW COVID-19 test received FDA approval, Abbott announced that it would ramp up its production to make 50,000 units per day as early as next week. According to a spokesperson from the medical device company, the tests will be available beginning on April 1.

"When we get those tests out that you can do right away, rapid point-of-care, and do it, then I think we're going to be closer [to lifting restrictions]," Fauci said.


     Let's make it April 2nd, OK? (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/smiley.gif)

That's optimistic.... 
Once you can identity the immunised, they could go back to work.
But what about the rest, would they remain voluntarily in quarantine till the epidemic dies down??
And if you use selftesting, you would need a 2nd test to verify the result.

Q
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Que on March 29, 2020, 11:31:23 AM
That's optimistic.... 
Once you can identity the immunised, they could go back to work.
But what about the rest, would they remain voluntarily in quarantine till the epidemic dies down??
And if you use selftesting, you would need a 2nd test to verify the result.

Q


A different timeline from the UK:

Quote
Up to six months to see if measures have ‘squashed’ virus, says deputy chief medical officer

When asked whether the country would be on lockdown for the next six months, Harries said:

We actually anticipate our numbers will get worse over the next week, possibly two, and then we are looking to see whether we have managed to push that curve down and we start to see a decline.

This is not to say we would be in complete lockdown for six months, but as a nation we have to be really, really responsible and keep doing what we’re all doing until we’re sure we can gradually start lifting various interventions which are likely to be spaced – based on the science and our data – until we gradually come back to a normal way of living.

She said the government would review lockdown measures in three weeks’ time. 

The issue of the three weeks is for us to review where we are and see if we’ve had an impact jointly on the slope of that curve. But I think to make it clear to the public if we are successful we will have squashed the top of that curve, which is brilliant, but we must not then suddenly revert to our normal way of living that would be quite dangerous.

If we stop then all of our efforts will be wasted and we could potentially see a second peak. So over time, probably over the next six months, we will have a three-week review.

Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 29, 2020, 11:34:45 AM
This could be how zombies are created.



     I think David Chalmers did it. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/tongue.gif)

That's optimistic.... 
Once you can identity the immunised, they could go back to work.
But what about the rest, would they remain voluntarily in quarantine till the epidemic dies down??
And if you use selftesting, you would need a 2nd test to verify the result.

Q

     It's point of care, with rapid results and more widely available soon. So, it's rationally optimistic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 29, 2020, 12:05:48 PM


I wish all of you the best... we can only hope that scientists and politicians come up with the best advices and hopefully… solutions, as soon as possible.

Stay safe!

From me too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Rinaldo on March 29, 2020, 01:52:49 PM
On the bright side:

(https://i.postimg.cc/KzC51wdc/EUTZTJi-Uw-AAKp-Zd.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)

Had to check if those tweets were fake.. What a disgusting psychopath.

Fauci Estimates That 100,000 To 200,000 Americans Could Die From The Coronavirus (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/29/823517467/fauci-estimates-that-100-000-to-200-000-americans-could-die-from-the-coronavirus)

Quote
The nation's leading expert on infectious diseases and member of the White House's coronavirus task force says the pandemic could kill 100,000 to 200,000 Americans and infect millions.

Dr. Anthony Fauci said based on modeling of the current pace of the coronavirus' spread in the U.S., "between 100,000 and 200,000" people may die from COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.

Yay, TV ratings!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 29, 2020, 02:06:41 PM
Quote
Stay safe.

From me too.

Why? Are you a danger?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 29, 2020, 04:22:38 PM
Why? Are you a danger?

If you only knew, . . .
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Ratliff on March 29, 2020, 05:20:56 PM
It's point of care, with rapid results and more widely available soon. So, it's rationally optimistic.

To a point. Mostly I read about manufacturers making a Covid-19 kit for their installed base machines, which involves either PCR or some sort of RNA hybridization assay.  Expanding the base of test machines won’t be fast. Ultimately we need to test what, 200 million people?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: steve ridgway on March 29, 2020, 08:42:33 PM
Do you have to stick to the paths on NT land or are you allowed to roam freely?

The National Trust charity own a load of historic houses and land like the estates around them, plus some beauty spots. It costs a fortune to maintain the buildings so they charge steeply for car parking, admission to the houses and gardens, and food and drink. A lot have public footpaths through the land which are free rights of way. In general it’s possible to find somewhere to park for free further away than the vast majority would care to walk (probably about 1/4 mile) and wander about anywhere on the big estates apart from the buildings and gardens but some of the smaller places are entrance fee only.

Their website  https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/ (https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/) now says “ From end of Tuesday 24 March, we closed all our car parks to further restrict the spread of coronavirus. This followed the decision to close our parks and gardens in addition to our houses, shops and cafes”. We’ll try a path through a distant, quiet part of one of their properties today and do a walk from the same parking place in the opposite direction if they’ve blocked it off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Irons on March 29, 2020, 11:58:50 PM
Thanks so much for the kind wishes about my daughter - which mean a lot to me.  :)
She said that she felt 'blocked up' today but was otherwise ok and last night she said that she felt better although I'm aware that the virus can appear to come and go. She said that she had all the symptoms other than a fever.

On a separate note I find the govt's resrictions on driving to a place of exercise both counter-productive and unnecessarily repressive. I'm far more likely to spread the virus to someone else or contract it by walking around the village for exercise than by getting into the car for a ten minute drive to a very large area of open space called Ashdown Forest (Christo has been to a nice pub there!) where I can walk for ages without seeing anyone or easily take steps to distance myself from other walkers, joggers or horse riders. I think this is as important for mental health as for physical health.

On a lighter note, a friend of mine phoned me yesterday (Saturday) afternoon and started the conversation by saying:

'I'm very sorry to interrupt you during the football results.'

I don't blame the Government, Jeffrey. I blame the selfish idiots who think it OK to drive to Brighton at the first sign of a summer's day. Yesterday the police broke up a bunch of lads playing football in a park! We have draconian laws for the minuscule few who flout them and we all suffer.

Trust your daughter is getting through this OK - the vast majority of youngsters do.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: steve ridgway on March 30, 2020, 02:45:59 AM
We’ll try a path through a distant, quiet part of one of their properties today and do a walk from the same parking place in the opposite direction if they’ve blocked it off.

Fortunately the path through the woods was still open. We only had to step aside for 4 (separate) joggers in there. Then bought some food from a quiet shop on the way back.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 30, 2020, 05:20:13 AM
The National Trust charity own a load of historic houses and land like the estates around them, plus some beauty spots. It costs a fortune to maintain the buildings so they charge steeply for car parking, admission to the houses and gardens, and food and drink. A lot have public footpaths through the land which are free rights of way. In general it’s possible to find somewhere to park for free further away than the vast majority would care to walk (probably about 1/4 mile) and wander about anywhere on the big estates apart from the buildings and gardens but some of the smaller places are entrance fee only.

Their website  https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/ (https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/) now says “ From end of Tuesday 24 March, we closed all our car parks to further restrict the spread of coronavirus. This followed the decision to close our parks and gardens in addition to our houses, shops and cafes”. We’ll try a path through a distant, quiet part of one of their properties today and do a walk from the same parking place in the opposite direction if they’ve blocked it off.
Thank you for the info.   :)

PD
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 30, 2020, 06:25:41 AM
Thank you for the info.   :)

PD

How are you doing? PD?
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 30, 2020, 06:45:16 AM
How are you doing? PD?
Hi Karl! 

Sweet of you to ask!  :)

Trying to keep my sanity--like all of us.  On the positive side of things, there is a nice concert that is available to watch online; I think that it was aired on t.v. on Fox last night (here in the States).  Elton John was the host ....there are various acts and artists performing (some bands coordinating somehow or another from each of the members' homes remotely).  The special concert was to raise money for American national foodbanks and also to go to a special fund for first responders and their families to help them with their own needs during this horrific crisis.  Here's a link to it:  https://www.fox.com/watch/a9647679a60276e91d830ab21b26b179/

Made a big batch of soup (chicken, cannellini beans, lots of fresh veggies and homemade chicken stock) yesterday to keep me going and hopefully to also pass along some to a friend.  Am trying to avoid going to the markets often to limit risks to all.

Off to get some house cleaning/chores done and then hope to go out for a walk.

How are you holding out?  What are things like in Boston right now?

Best wishes,

PD

EDIT:  p.s. I've found going to this website to be a combo of entertaining and soothing.  Love the bird cams!  https://www.allaboutbirds.org/cams/

p.p.s.  A bit of irony:  Elton is currently holed up at a home of his in LA; the only home of his in which he does NOT have a piano!  ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 30, 2020, 07:15:46 AM

     Jobs Aren’t Being Destroyed This Fast Elsewhere. Why Is That? (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/opinion/coronavirus-economy-saez-zucman.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Opinion)

     In the US dollars must be saved by not creating them. This is a very shitty idea, as only created dollars are saved in bank accounts. I'd rather save jobs. If you pay people to stay home and businesses to stay closed there will be jobs and businesses to go back to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 30, 2020, 07:21:42 AM
Hi Karl! 

Sweet of you to ask!  :)

Trying to keep my sanity--like all of us.  On the positive side of things, there is a nice concert that is available to watch online; I think that it was aired on t.v. on Fox last night (here in the States).  Elton John was the host ....there are various acts and artists performing (some bands coordinating somehow or another from each of the members' homes remotely).  The special concert was to raise money for American national foodbanks and also to go to a special fund for first responders and their families to help them with their own needs during this horrific crisis.  Here's a link to it:  https://www.fox.com/watch/a9647679a60276e91d830ab21b26b179/ (https://www.fox.com/watch/a9647679a60276e91d830ab21b26b179/)

Made a big batch of soup (chicken, cannellini beans, lots of fresh veggies and homemade chicken stock) yesterday to keep me going and hopefully to also pass along some to a friend.  Am trying to avoid going to the markets often to limit risks to all.

Off to get some house cleaning/chores done and then hope to go out for a walk.

How are you holding out?  What are things like in Boston right now?

Best wishes,

PD

EDIT:  p.s. I've found going to this website to be a combo of entertaining and soothing.  Love the bird cams!  https://www.allaboutbirds.org/cams/ (https://www.allaboutbirds.org/cams/)

p.p.s.  A bit of irony:  Elton is currently holed up at a home of his in LA; the only home of his in which he does NOT have a piano!  ::)

I certainly supposed that Elton would have more homes than one;  never would have guessed that he would lack for a piano in any of them! 8)

Thanks for the birds! Will certainly watch them.

I'm a good 12 miles north of Boston, so when the rain lets up (not that I complain for it) I'll be able to get out for walks easily.

I've been composing, so I have not wanted for engaging activity.

Keep the faith!
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 30, 2020, 07:31:28 AM
     Jobs Aren’t Being Destroyed This Fast Elsewhere. Why Is That? (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/opinion/coronavirus-economy-saez-zucman.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Opinion)

     In the US dollars must be saved by not creating them. This is a very shitty idea, as only created dollars are saved in bank accounts. I'd rather save jobs. If you pay people to stay home and businesses to stay closed there will be jobs and businesses to go back to.

With this attendant danger. There’s a huge cost to paying non productive people. That expenditure will eventually he recovered by government through tax hikes. Workers will demand pay rises to compensate. Those pay rises will lead to higher prices because the cost of production has increased. Workers will demand more pay rises to compensate again. Those further pay rises will lead to even higher prices because production costs have increased again . . .
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 30, 2020, 08:13:53 AM
With this attendant danger. There’s a huge cost to paying non productive people. That expenditure will eventually he recovered by government through tax hikes. Workers will demand pay rises to compensate. Those pay rises will lead to higher prices because the cost of production has increased. Workers will demand more pay rises to compensate again. Those further pay rises will lead to even higher prices because production costs have increased again . . .

     I don't think so. Rebalancing against a deflation is not net inflationary, or perhaps I should say if it isn't even a little inflationary you're not rebalancing hard enough. This is pretty conventional economics, not far out stuff. You have a hole and you fill it. Inflation is overfilling it. What are the odds we'll do that?

    The reason wage/price spirals don't happen is that we don't often fill holes. Look at what we did in 2008-9. We half filled a hole, got no inflation (just "expectations") and an endless stream of pointless monetarist blather about QE and how ZIRP would turn everyone into zombie superborrowers. How are we going to get all those small businesses and jobs back if we run out of dollars to keep them?

     The cost of not doing what's needed is higher than the costs of doing it. You get a smaller economy coming out of the crash than you otherwise would.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Mandryka on March 30, 2020, 08:45:41 AM
     I don't think so. Rebalancing against a deflation is not net inflationary, or perhaps I should say if it isn't even a little inflationary you're not rebalancing hard enough. This is pretty conventional economics, not far out stuff. You have a hole and you fill it. Inflation is overfilling it. What are the odds we'll do that?

    The reason wage/price spirals don't happen is that we don't often fill holes. Look at what we did in 2008-9. We half filled a hole, got no inflation (just "expectations") and an endless stream of pointless monetarist blather about QE and how ZIRP would turn everyone into zombie superborrowers. How are we going to get all those small businesses and jobs back if we run out of dollars to keep them?

     The cost of not doing what's needed is higher than the costs of doing it. You get a smaller economy coming out of the crash than you otherwise would.

I just wish I has more confidence in the UK leadership to get the country through this - both the health and the economic  consequences.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 30, 2020, 09:00:12 AM
I just wish I has more confidence in the UK leadership to get the country through this - both the health and the economic  consequences.

     I doubt any country will regret doing "too much" on either the virus or the economy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 30, 2020, 09:10:30 AM
I certainly supposed that Elton would have more homes than one;  never would have guessed that he would lack for a piano in any of them! 8)
I know!  I was shocked by that too!

Thanks for the birds! Will certainly watch them.
They are quite fascinating to watch.  Re the feeder one at Cornell:  I often spot a crafty squirrel (probably more than one!) who as managed to invade the flat platform one--happily gorging himself or herself. lol  One snowy day there recently, there was a HUGE array of birds there!  I saw four different types of woodpeckers there, grackles, tufted titmice, American goldfinch, red-winged blackbirds, etc.   ;D

I'm a good 12 miles north of Boston, so when the rain lets up (not that I complain for it) I'll be able to get out for walks easily.

Excellent!

I've been composing, so I have not wanted for engaging activity.
Do you find it all difficult to focus well with all of the news these days?

Keep the faith!
[/quote]
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 30, 2020, 09:16:31 AM
I certainly supposed that Elton would have more homes than one;  never would have guessed that he would lack for a piano in any of them! 8)

Certainly he can order at least a square piano to be delivered to his door, can't he?  ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 30, 2020, 09:30:53 AM

     If I'm getting this right, the current death projections are premised on a worst case "no precautions taken" model. The only way we get close to these numbers is if all precautions are removed. That now looks unlikely.

     
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: vandermolen on March 30, 2020, 10:04:24 AM
I don't blame the Government, Jeffrey. I blame the selfish idiots who think it OK to drive to Brighton at the first sign of a summer's day. Yesterday the police broke up a bunch of lads playing football in a park! We have draconian laws for the minuscule few who flout them and we all suffer.

Trust your daughter is getting through this OK - the vast majority of youngsters do.
Thanks Lol. She seems to be getting on ok.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 30, 2020, 10:04:59 AM
With this attendant danger. There’s a huge cost to paying non productive people.

I feel that way about the Federal Government, too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 30, 2020, 10:10:26 AM
Excellent!
Do you find it all difficult to focus well with all of the news these days?
I guess in this case, it helps that I am continuing a work already in progress.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: mc ukrneal on March 30, 2020, 10:56:14 AM
     If I'm getting this right, the current death projections are premised on a worst case "no precautions taken" model. The only way we get close to these numbers is if all precautions are removed. That now looks unlikely.
Depends which number you are looking at. Worst case scenario was 2.2m expected dead from the virus.  Worst case I saw more recently was 1.7m. But there are a lot of assumptions that go into that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: (: premont :) on March 30, 2020, 11:35:25 AM
The cost of not doing what's needed is higher than the costs of doing it. You get a smaller economy coming out of the crash than you otherwise would.

Now I suddenly understand, what you tried to explain me earlier in this thread, and I see the common sense in the Danish approach. Thanks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Holden on March 30, 2020, 01:14:22 PM
I know I said I'd only post humour but this makes interesting reading.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120666809/do-the-consequences-of-this-lockdown-really-match-the-threat
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: drogulus on March 30, 2020, 02:02:41 PM

     
I know I said I'd only post humour but this makes interesting reading.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120666809/do-the-consequences-of-this-lockdown-really-match-the-threat

     Yes, it's interesting. High death rates are for a limited set of circumstances.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Kaga2 on March 30, 2020, 02:03:41 PM
Maybe variolation?  http://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/03/variolation-may-cut-covid19-deaths-3-30x.html (http://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/03/variolation-may-cut-covid19-deaths-3-30x.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: arpeggio on March 30, 2020, 02:57:33 PM
There is so much activity here I really can not read everything.  I hope that this observation is new.

One of the many aspects that my non-Americans have to understand that a significant segment of out society is anti-government and anti-science.  This animas started with the Reagan Administration.

According to some of the polls I have seen 40% of Americans do not believe in Darwin.  The appearance of the Coronavirus is the result of evolution and they do not believe in it.  I have a niece who told me dinosaurs were not real.  Fossils were planted by the devil to mislead man from the true word of God.

We in the United States are now paying the price for this ignorance.  We have many scientist and leaders who are aware of the problem and are fighting an uphill struggle with the enlighten geniuses who support Trump.  In the end, among the industrialized world, we will suffer the most from this catastrophe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Pohjolas Daughter on March 30, 2020, 03:27:00 PM
I know I said I'd only post humour but this makes interesting reading.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120666809/do-the-consequences-of-this-lockdown-really-match-the-threat
Humor is greatly appreciated at this time.

I do try and keep up with the news (trying not to get overwhelmed with too much at a time though...breaks are a good thing!).

Hard to hear the news about various major cities in the US struggling with things.  Incredible to believe that there's a naval hospital ship now in New York City and that they have built a temporary Covid-19 hospital unit in Central Park!  But am glad that the help is there.  Feel for NYC as they are getting hit really hard.

Hate to see that states are competing against each other to order supplies:  the Fed should be doing it.  Heard a story on NPR the other night about how the fighting/ordering by each state is driving up prices of various supplies by incredible amounts.  One question that did just occur to me:  is it just the ordering of supplies between states and/or between the governments of various countries?  I'm sure, though, that if it (the ordering) was just at the federal level that that would make a difference.  What do other Americans think here?

Best wishes and stay healthy,

PD

From what I understand (I did take a, albeit brief, look at your link) this virus is much more contagious than the average flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Ratliff on March 30, 2020, 03:57:26 PM
From what I understand (I did take a, albeit brief, look at your link) this virus is much more contagious than the average flu.

Definitive numbers are of course not available. But the consensus seems to be that the novel coronavirus has a transmission rate (R0) of about 3, meaning each infected person gives to 3 people on average. For the flu (including the 1918 pandemic flu) the corresponding number is more like 1.5.

For seasonal flu, mortality (percentage of infected patients who die) is about 0.1%. For the novel coronavirus it seems to be 1-2%, which would give it comparable mortality to the 1918 pandemic flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: BasilValentine on March 30, 2020, 03:57:44 PM
Three people I know, my brother, my niece, and a friend, are pretty sure they contracted Covid-19. I say pretty sure because the symptoms were/are severe, long-lasting, and spot on with the descriptions we've all read. But they will likely never know for sure because they, like millions of others, went untested. The niece has recovered fully, my brother is on the mend after going through a crisis five days ago. My friend, a nurse, fully recovered from her bout by the beginning of March. I've had no contact with any of them as they live hundreds of miles away. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 30, 2020, 03:59:16 PM
Twitter takes down posts promoting anti-malaria treatment for coronavirus (https://thehill.com/policy/technology/490245-twitter-takes-down-posts-promoting-anti-malaria-treatment-for-coronavirus)

"Twitter has in the last week taken down multiple posts from public figures promoting an anti-malaria drug as a way to treat coronavirus.

On Friday, the platform removed a tweet from President Trump's personal attorney Rudy Giuliani claiming that hydroxychloroquine is a safe way to treat COVID-19, the disease resulting from the novel coronavirus.

A spokesperson for the platform confirmed that the tweet was removed for violating its rules on coronavirus misinformation.

Twitter earlier this month said it would begin removing coronavirus-related posts that deny expert recommendations, promote fake treatments and prevention techniques, or misleadingly claim to be from authorities.

Giuliani's now-deleted post included direct quotes from a tweet by conservative activist Charlie Kirk that has also been removed for violating rules.

A March 20 tweet from Fox News's Laura Ingraham claiming that hydroxychloroquine was in use "at many hospitals" and was showing "very promising results" was no longer available on the platform as of Monday. A spokesperson for Twitter declined to comment on whether Ingraham deleted the tweet herself or was compelled to do so but did confirm that the post fell under the platform's health misinformation policy" [...]
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: André on March 30, 2020, 04:21:07 PM
Self medication with hydroxychloroquine resulted in 3 deaths in France. Health authorities warn NOT to attempt a treatment with the drug.

https://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2020/03/30/le-gendarme-du-medicament-alerte-sur-les-possibles-effets-secondaires-graves-des-traitements-testes-contre-le-coronavirus_6034965_3224.html (https://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2020/03/30/le-gendarme-du-medicament-alerte-sur-les-possibles-effets-secondaires-graves-des-traitements-testes-contre-le-coronavirus_6034965_3224.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Ratliff on March 30, 2020, 04:30:31 PM
A former work colleague seems to have contracted Covid-19 after traveling through San Francisco Airport.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: JBS on March 30, 2020, 05:03:07 PM
Three people I know, my brother, my niece, and a friend, are pretty sure they contracted Covid-19. I say pretty sure because the symptoms were/are severe, long-lasting, and spot on with the descriptions we've all read. But they will likely never know for sure because they, like millions of others, went untested. The niece has recovered fully, my brother is on the mend after going through a crisis five days ago. My friend, a nurse, fully recovered from her bout by the beginning of March. I've had no contact with any of them as they live hundreds of miles away.

Once serelogical testing is fully implemented, they will be able to tell from that, since that looks for antibodies to the virus. The current testing is confined to looking for traces of the active virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: SimonNZ on March 30, 2020, 06:51:53 PM
I'm going to start a rumor / misinformation campaign that eating a cd of Norton Anti-Virus will cure you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: steve ridgway on March 30, 2020, 09:05:10 PM
There is so much activity here I really can not read everything.  I hope that this observation is new.

One of the many aspects that my non-Americans have to understand that a significant segment of out society is anti-government and anti-science.  This animas started with the Reagan Administration.

According to some of the polls I have seen 40% of Americans do not believe in Darwin.  The appearance of the Coronavirus is the result of evolution and they do not believe in it.  I have a niece who told me dinosaurs were not real.  Fossils were planted by the devil to mislead man from the true word of God.

We in the United States are now paying the price for this ignorance.  We have many scientist and leaders who are aware of the problem and are fighting an uphill struggle with the enlighten geniuses who support Trump.  In the end, among the industrialized world, we will suffer the most from this catastrophe.

Hmm yes, many people don’t get that science is a very careful and methodical search for facts rather than just another competing belief system :-\.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Florestan on March 31, 2020, 12:14:27 AM
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120666809/do-the-consequences-of-this-lockdown-really-match-the-threat

The figures of up to 900 deaths a day in Italy are alarming, and so is the nation's crude case-fatality rate of 9 per cent. However, a recent analysis of the deaths in Italy shows that only a small fraction were entirely due to Covid-19, occurring in people with no co-morbidities (3 out of 355; 0.8 per cent). Many deaths were hastily labelled as Covid-19 related when they were not.


How do you know that, Mr. Thornley?

If you mean that the vast majority of people who died had pre-existing grave conditions, this is true but doesn't make their death any less related to Covid-19. They would have surely died some time in the rather near future compared to healthy people but there's no certitude they would have died this time of this year even if they didn't get Covid-19. So yes, the deaths are Covid-19 related. These people were not killed by their cancer, or diabetes, or heart diseases, they were killed by Covid-19 severely aggravating them.

We don't want to squash a flea with a sledgehammer and bring the house down.

If Mr. Thornley thinks that what we have now is just a flea in a house then I have no more comments.
Title: Re: Coronavirus thread
Post by: Que on March 31, 2020, 01