Coronavirus thread

[Mandryka]

It partly depends on the amount of testing, which is a big thing and free here in DK. There's been 41 mio PCR and a lot of quick tests too, amounting to 7 PCR per inhabitant, and then many quick tests as well. Results are from day to day, including I think national results. Also, in many parts of educational and work life, regular testing is obligatory or very strongly recommended, therefore picturing the infections at some level at least; children and students tend to come from all parts of society.

That said, the number of tests has gone down in the later months.

In the UK during most of the epidemic positive test results were about 50% of the best estimates of incidence. However, when the disease really took off and the population felt safe because of vaccination, people tested less and less. I guess they didn't see the need, and weren't convinced that isolation was necessary any more. As a result, right now, positive test results is running at 33% or less of incidence. Incidence is at about 100K a day, tested positives hovering around 30K a day.

[Mandryka]

It's a sign that efforts aimed at containment (not by the UK...) are not (sufficiently) succesful.

The only EU country I follow closely is France. There Macron's strategy seems to be to get to the same position as the UK fast! I mean, constrain unvaccinated people's freedoms radically to make them see the way the truth and the light. And when they are vaccinated well, they can party like it's 1999!

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Florida hospitalizations from March 2020 through today

Eek!

How are things right where you live JBS?

I have friends who have a second home on Sanibel Island and the numbers were extremely low there last year (during the winter and early spring).  I'll have to ask them what their current thoughts are about returning there this coming winter.  I expect it will be a case of "Play it by ear".  I know that they love going there:  both birders and hate the cold.

PD

[MusicTurner]

Another aspect of mapping the virus is sewage testing, which is apparently quicker at discovering outbreak centres, and involves much less hazzle. They're working on it here, and it might be a future international phenomena too.

In spite of somewhat increasing hospitalizations here in DK, the weekly published R number today is now down to 0.9 . I guess we'll see it during the coming week, if that's measurably correct.

[JBS]

Eek!

How are things right where you live JBS?

I have friends who have a second home on Sanibel Island and the numbers were extremely low there last year (during the winter and early spring).  I'll have to ask them what their current thoughts are about returning there this coming winter.  I expect it will be a case of "Play it by ear".  I know that they love going there:  both birders and hate the cold.

PD

My area is one of the "hot spots". Most people wear masks and are vaccinated (74% over 12 years old have at least one shot) but the hospitals are still crowded.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

My area is one of the "hot spots". Most people wear masks and are vaccinated (74% over 12 years old have at least one shot) but the hospitals are still crowded.

Sorry to hear that it's a "hot spot".  How has this effected your life in terms of going out/doing things?  I believe that you are close to the beach (or am I misremembering this due to your attached photo)?  Do you dine outdoors much or unwilling to try visiting restaurants?

PD

[André]

Hospitalizations lag behind reported cases by 1-4 weeks. Knowing the trend of new cases helps figure needs and potential problems in the health system. That's the essence of planning. Not knowing an uptick in new cases would mean the risk of being caught by surprise. That's why there are hurricane or tornado warnings.

Also, not being aware of an increase in cases raises the incredulity level of the population (the unvaccinated in particular) when authorities decree constraining measures.

[T. D.]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/entire-texas-town-essentially-closes-130700273.html

Iraan, a small oilfield town of 1,200 people in west Texas, has been struck so hard by the coronavirus pandemic that the entire town has essentially shut down, including the school district and local businesses.

"We had had COVID before, but never to this magnitude," resident Vicky Zapata told CNN.

According to Iraan General Hospital CEO Jason Rybolt, 119 people were tested for the virus and 50 tested positive during a two week August span – a 42% positivity rate. Iraan Mayor Darren Brown told CNN, "This is very serious."

Rybolt said he's "very concerned for the community and "very concerned for trying to make sure that they have the health care that they need."

Rybolt added that at least one Iraan resident has been airlifted for out-of-state care because of a lack of available ICU beds in Texas. He said: "It could be 12 hours (for coronavirus-stricken people to receive a bed). It could be 36 hours. You just never know how long it's going to take."

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has continued to push against a statewide mask mandate, as many U.S. states have. The number of ICU beds available across all of Texas has been extremely low; only 372 are available now, according to the latest state data. The closest hospitals to Iraan are at least 100 miles away.

[T. D.]

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/televangelist-claims-god-cant-hear-prayers-through-masks-287346/

[Karl Henning]

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/televangelist-claims-god-cant-hear-prayers-through-masks-287346/

There's no bottom for televangelists, either.

[Holden]

I don't know what's happening where you are but here during this current lockdown we are trying to make the "reported cases" and "what is actually out there in the community" to be one and the same thing with aggressive tracing and testing. I don't know why you would think a 20/80 thing acceptable.

Unless every single person is tested, it's impossible to get an accurate picture of the number of cases. Part of the UNSW (if it wasn't them it was some other Sydney Uni) was a survey of those who had never been tested and why this was so. This was apparently matched to another survey group who had also avoided testing but ended up being obliged to do so because of close contact, etc. The differences in the two figures was too large to be ignored.

The bottom line is that getting tested is about compliance and there are many factors standing in the way of that, even for those citizens who would normally comply. For example, the prospect of loss of income if self employed is just one factor that would preclude some people from getting the test, even if they aren't well. I have never been tested for one simple reason, I have never shown any Covid19 symptoms. Before you criticise me for that, public advice from the Qld government (and governments everywhere I would think) is to go and get tested "if you show any of the following symptoms......".

That begs the question "Have I had Covid19?" The answer is possibly yes as the odds are reasonable that I might have. I work in an environment comprising 130 adults and 1500+ children. I work in close proximity to the children I teach some of whom are as young as seven years old. I touch the surfaces they touch, I breathe the air that they breathe and so on. It is highly likely that some of those children have had Covid 19 but being asymptomatic were never tested and of course, will never figure in the list of cases.

Your government is "trying to make the "reported cases" and "what is actually out there in the community" to be one and the same thing". They are dreaming - though I would be tempted to say that they are bullshitting you. They know it's impossible so why propagate the lie?

[SimonNZ]

They are dreaming

We shall see. Watch this space.

[T. D.]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-24/vaccine-efficacy-diminished-as-delta-arose-cdc-report-shows

Some passages:

The effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines among front-line workers declined to 66% after the delta variant became dominant, compared with 91% before it arose, according to a report from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
...
The findings echo earlier evidence from Israel and the U.K. suggesting Covid vaccines lost some potency in preventing infections over time as the delta variant spread. These and other research results will be under scrutiny next week as CDC advisers weigh the Biden administration's plan to administer booster doses to most vaccine recipients in the U.S.
...
The finding of diminished effectiveness when delta was the dominant virus strain comes with an important caveat: The range of that estimate is highly uncertain. Researchers reported 95% confidence that the efficacy was between 26% and 84% in that period.
...

[Mandryka]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-24/vaccine-efficacy-diminished-as-delta-arose-cdc-report-shows

Some passages:

The effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines among front-line workers declined to 66% after the delta variant became dominant, compared with 91% before it arose, according to a report from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
...
The findings echo earlier evidence from Israel and the U.K. suggesting Covid vaccines lost some potency in preventing infections over time as the delta variant spread. These and other research results will be under scrutiny next week as CDC advisers weigh the Biden administration's plan to administer booster doses to most vaccine recipients in the U.S.
...
The finding of diminished effectiveness when delta was the dominant virus strain comes with an important caveat: The range of that estimate is highly uncertain. Researchers reported 95% confidence that the efficacy was between 26% and 84% in that period.
...

You've got to be so careful with articles like that as the journalists make scary headlines to create clicks, and present things in a black and white way without context for similar reasons. In the case of that article, the issue is between vaccine effectiveness at preventing infection versus effectiveness at preventing other things like serious symptoms.

Suppose it were the case (as it appears to be) that the vaccines prevent serious illness, how much does it matter that they are less effective at preventing infection? Does it matter enough to justify a booster shot? When the South is unvaccinated.

These are the questions we should all be focussing on. Instead the pundits seem to be intent in creating pressure from below for a third jab in rich countries, for arguably no good reason whatsoever. In the meantime there's carnage in poor countries.

[Holden]

We shall see. Watch this space.

I think that I'll be watching for a long time.

[Karl Henning]

Whaddaya mean, "inconclusive?!" The YouTube conspiracy theory pushers are CERTAIN!

Biden receives inconclusive intelligence report on covid origins

[Florestan]

Unless every single person is tested, it's impossible to get an accurate picture of the number of cases. Part of the UNSW (if it wasn't them it was some other Sydney Uni) was a survey of those who had never been tested and why this was so. This was apparently matched to another survey group who had also avoided testing but ended up being obliged to do so because of close contact, etc. The differences in the two figures was too large to be ignored.

The bottom line is that getting tested is about compliance and there are many factors standing in the way of that, even for those citizens who would normally comply. For example, the prospect of loss of income if self employed is just one factor that would preclude some people from getting the test, even if they aren't well. I have never been tested for one simple reason, I have never shown any Covid19 symptoms. Before you criticise me for that, public advice from the Qld government (and governments everywhere I would think) is to go and get tested "if you show any of the following symptoms......".

That begs the question "Have I had Covid19?" The answer is possibly yes as the odds are reasonable that I might have. I work in an environment comprising 130 adults and 1500+ children. I work in close proximity to the children I teach some of whom are as young as seven years old. I touch the surfaces they touch, I breathe the air that they breathe and so on. It is highly likely that some of those children have had Covid 19 but being asymptomatic were never tested and of course, will never figure in the list of cases.

Your government is "trying to make the "reported cases" and "what is actually out there in the community" to be one and the same thing". They are dreaming - though I would be tempted to say that they are bullshitting you. They know it's impossible so why propagate the lie?

An eminently reasonable post.

[Karl Henning]

Delta Air Lines will require any employee who is unvaccinated to pay an additional $200 per month to stay on the company's health care plan starting Nov. 1. Unvaccinated workers have to wear masks and will soon have to take weekly coronavirus tests.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Delta Air Lines will require any employee who is unvaccinated to pay an additional $200 per month to stay on the company's health care plan starting Nov. 1. Unvaccinated workers have to wear masks and will soon have to take weekly coronavirus tests.

I trust that they will make exceptions for those who health-wise cannot get vaccinated (in terms of being able to stay on the company's health plan)?

PD

[Florestan]

Sooner or later the constitutions of the democratic nations will have to be ammended in order to ensure that nobody shall be discriminated on the basis of their religion, race, sexual orientation or vaccination status.