Countdown to Extinction: The 2016 Presidential Election

[Karl Henning]

Weiner/Holder 2016

I just want you to know that the uncharacteristic concision of this post did not go unnoticed, nor unappreciated.

[Rinaldo]

The fact that Hillary cannot put this race away against someone as flawed as Trump speaks to the inherent weakness of her campaign.

I think it speaks to the inherent sexism that's still part of western society.

[San Antone]

I think it speaks to the inherent sexism that's still part of western society.

Sure, one can't oppose her policies on the merits; her opponents are simply sexist.  One can't oppose Obama's polcies on the merits, his opponents are racist.

A tired trope Liberals cannot give up. 

[Brian]

Sure, one can't oppose her policies on the merits; her opponents are simply sexist.  One can't oppose Obama's polcies on the merits, his opponents are racist.

A tired trope Liberals cannot give up.

And this is an equally tired strawman.

There is certainly plenty of evidence of sexism and double-standards against Hillary - for example, commentators saying today that she was "not likeable enough" but also "smiled too much" (Brit Hume and David Frum, respectively). And also:



Also, Rudy Giuliani said today she's "too stupid" to be president because her husband cheated - when, of course, Giuliani and Trump have cheated themselves. Hard to deny a double standard there.

Rinaldo and I - and indeed everybody - are not saying all opposition derives from one source, but rather that sexism is a source. Studies after 2008 suggested that racism accounted for about 2-3% of the total popular vote.

[San Antone]

I think Obama got votes because of his race, the first Black president.  Hillary should get more votes as the first woman president.  Are the people voting for her, because she's a woman, sexist or just the ones voting against her?

[Mahlerian]

I think Obama got votes because of his race, the first Black president.  Hillary should get more votes as the first woman president.  Are the people voting for her, because she's a woman, sexist or just the ones voting against her?

Aren't the ones who would be voting for her because she is a woman more likely to vote for her over Trump anyway, just based on her political orientation (that and his persistent sexism)?

It's really a moot point, because there's no easy way to dig into motivations without real research.

[San Antone]

It's really a moot point, because there's no easy way to dig into motivations without real research.

Correct.  Hillary has serious issues of trust and credibility and liberal policies that your average Repulican voter rejects and many blue collar Democrats find unappealing.  When her supporters cry "sexism" because her support is deflated it is specious, at best.   

[Brian]

Aren't the ones who would be voting for her because she is a woman more likely to vote for her over Trump anyway, just based on her political orientation?

It's really a moot point, because there's no easy way to dig into motivations without real research.

Yeah, the ideal way to test SA's hypothesis would be to have, e.g., a black Republican nominee vs. a white Democrat.

I think Obama got votes because of his race, the first Black president.  Hillary should get more votes as the first woman president.  Are the people voting for her, because she's a woman, sexist or just the ones voting against her?

My mistake - the 3% figure I quoted was for white voters, not all voters. Here is the research:
http://projects.iq.harvard.edu/files/cces/files/schaffner-_racial_salience_pp_revised.pdf

Here is a critique of a different study - that study found 4% of the popular vote accounted for by racism in 2008 - which argues that the author grossly overestimates his findings, but that the basic underlying fact may well be true on a much smaller scale (say, 1% of the overall vote):
https://newrepublic.com/article/112883/study-racism-cost-obama-millions-votes-unlikely

[Rinaldo]

Sure, one can't oppose her policies on the merits; her opponents are simply sexist.  One can't oppose Obama's polcies on the merits, his opponents are racist.

I've never said that. As Brian pointed out, it's all about the double standards, clearly evident throughout this campaign.

https://www.youtube.com/v/h1Lfd1aB9YI

Are the people voting for her, because she's a woman, sexist

No. Voting for representation of your gender ≠ sexism.

or just the ones voting against her?

I'd guess the 'basket of deplorables' holds a certain amount of sexists and misogynists, yes.

[San Antone]

Yeah, the ideal way to test SA's hypothesis would be to have, e.g., a black Republican nominee vs. a white Democrat.
My mistake - the 3% figure I quoted was for white voters, not all voters. Here is the research:
http://projects.iq.harvard.edu/files/cces/files/schaffner-_racial_salience_pp_revised.pdf

Here is a critique of a different study - that study found 4% of the popular vote accounted for by racism in 2008 - which argues that the author grossly overestimates his findings, but that the basic underlying fact may well be true on a much smaller scale (say, 1% of the overall vote):
https://newrepublic.com/article/112883/study-racism-cost-obama-millions-votes-unlikely

Keep telling yourself that sexism is the reason Hillary is not walking away with this election.  It means her campaign will not address the root problem with her candidacy and gives Trump a better chance.

[Brian]

Keep telling yourself that sexism is the reason Hillary is not walking away with this election.

Good grief. I never said that. In fact, I directly said the opposite of that. Had to check my own posts to look.

[San Antone]

Good grief. I never said that. In fact, I directly said the opposite of that. Had to check my own posts to look.

Sorry.  I skimmed your post and reacted more to Rinaldo's.

[Brian]

Sorry.  I skimmed your post and reacted more to Rinaldo's.

OK, cool 

[mc ukrneal]

Sexism. Some interesting comments. Mine would be to quote Brit Hume of Fox news (commenting on Clinton during the debate): "She looked, I think, for the most part, she looked composed, smug sometimes, not necessarily attractive." You would never make such a comment about Trump.

[Rinaldo]

It means her campaign will not address the root problem with her candidacy and gives Trump a better chance.

What do you think is the root problem, the fact that she's establishment?

Sexism. Some interesting comments. Mine would be to quote Brit Hume of Fox news (commenting on Clinton during the debate): "She looked, I think, for the most part, she looked composed, smug sometimes, not necessarily attractive." You would never make such a comment about Trump.

As I said before, just imagine her sniffing like Trump did, for example. The media would pronounce her terminally ill.

[San Antone]

What do you think is the root problem, the fact that she's establishment?

Here's what I've already posted:

Hillary has serious issues of trust and credibility and liberal policies that your average Repulican voter rejects and many blue collar Democrats find unappealing.  When her supporters cry "sexism" because her support is deflated it is specious, at best.

Add to those obvious problems there's her membership in the political elite.  All of which translates into a trifecta of reasons for half of the country not to vote for her, or enough people to elect Trump.  But like I said I hope her team keeps blaming sexism. 

[Karl Henning]

Keep telling yourself that sexism is the reason Hillary is not walking away with this election.  It means her campaign will not address the root problem with her candidacy and gives Trump a better chance.

Okay, I'll say the obvious:  the fact that you oppose Clinton on the merits of her policies, does not mean that sexism is not perniciously at play in this election.

Any more than, the fact that neither you nor zb are racist means that there is nothing to the argument that the engine of El Tupé's candidacy is white supremacist rage.

[Karl Henning]

No sexism here; no, none at all.

http://www.youtube.com/v/U8ZM58O_gBo

[San Antone]

Okay, I'll say the obvious:  the fact that you oppose Clinton on the merits of her policies, does not mean that sexism is not perniciously at play in this election.

Any more than, the fact that neither you nor zb are racist means that there is nothing to the argument that the engine of El Tupé's candidacy is white supremacist rage.

Do not be seduced by the siren song of that kind of thinking.  The "deplorables" comment was a gift for Trump

The election after a two term president historically has favored the opposition party: advantage Trump
Also, after a two term president the candidate representing change is favored over the candidate representing status quo: advantage Trump

Add to these historical trends, Hillary's dishonesty and membership in the policital elite continue to keep her approval ratings very low.

It is only because Trump is such a horribly bad candidate that he is not winning by a decisive margin. 

[San Antone]

No sexism here; no, none at all.

http://www.youtube.com/v/U8ZM58O_gBo

Well, Trump fantasizes about being a member of the Rat Pack.