Biggest Economy in the World

[MishaK]

What makes you suggest that China is "ethnically diverse"?  I know wiki isn't the gold standard of truth, but usually a good "back of the envelope" guide, especially if a topic isn't political:

With just under 92% Han Chinese, that doesn't sound ethnically diverse to me.  Either way, I never suggested breaking the country up.  What I would like to see is true democratic and economic reforms to make the mainland look much more like Taiwan. 

That is sufficiently ethnically diverse. Given that the minorities reside in geographically copmact regions, breakup is possible. My point was that while reforms are desirable, enforcing them at a fast pace would be far worse than the status quo. Note also that Taiwan was a military dictatorship well into the 80s and still isn't the ideal democracy you make it out to be.

[Redbeard]

That is sufficiently ethnically diverse. Given that the minorities reside in geographically copmact regions, breakup is possible. My point was that while reforms are desirable, enforcing them at a fast pace would be far worse than the status quo. Note also that Taiwan was a military dictatorship well into the 80s and still isn't the ideal democracy you make it out to be.

I never made Taiwan out to be an ideal democracy.  On the contrary, this is why they are a good model.  If China can get to the level of economic and political freedom that Tiawan had in say the 1970s or 80s, they will truly be in for some great times.  However, the current class system in China with a "working class" and a "ruling class" (party members, especially the elite), means that this kind of change is highly unlikely.  Those in power have far too much to loose to allow any kind of meaningful reform.  So, what will happen is more of the same.  Never ending promises to crack down on corruption, etc.  And of course gushing from the west about how much better off China is now than it was under Mao, while many of the same folks (secretly or openly) revere Mao as an international workers hero.  This has gone on for 30 years now, and I wouldn't expect it to be any different in the next 30.  But somewhere along the way, don't you start to have to compare China with it's neighbors, and not it's tragic history under communism?  For reference, Tiawan in 1980 only had 30 years of reforms to get where they were... 

[MishaK]

I never made Taiwan out to be an ideal democracy.  On the contrary, this is why they are a good model.  If China can get to the level of economic and political freedom that Tiawan had in say the 1970s or 80s, they will truly be in for some great times.  However, the current class system in China with a "working class" and a "ruling class" (party members, especially the elite), means that this kind of change is highly unlikely.  Those in power have far too much to loose to allow any kind of meaningful reform.  So, what will happen is more of the same.  Never ending promises to crack down on corruption, etc.  And of course gushing from the west about how much better off China is now than it was under Mao, while many of the same folks (secretly or openly) revere Mao as an international workers hero.  This has gone on for 30 years now, and I wouldn't expect it to be any different in the next 30.  But somewhere along the way, don't you start to have to compare China with it's neighbors, and not it's tragic history under communism?  For reference, Tiawan in 1980 only had 30 years of reforms to get where they were... 

You say you don't idealize Taiwan, but you keep raising it on a pedestal. Taiwan was under martial law rule until 1987 and only started liberalizing in 1984. You could argue that China today is barely less liberal (if at all) than Taiwan in the mid 80s. So your comparison is just not a good one. You vilify China but praise Taiwan out of proportion. In any case, Taiwan supports my argument. There, economic reforms preceded political reforms. Political reforms were only passed once a certain level of general prosperity had been achieved. Do it the other way around and you'll get a mess like in Russia.

[mahlertitan]

If the Chinese hadn't destroyed their enrmous trading fleet in the 15th (or was it the 14th?) century and turned toward total isolation, they could have dominated the west long ago. We would be talking about the Beijing based West Europe Company instead.

you are right, the chinese probably had many chances at world domination; but again, they believed that there existed no other countries of equaling china else where.

[mahlertitan]

With just under 92% Han Chinese, that doesn't sound ethnically diverse to me.  Either way, I never suggested breaking the country up.  What I would like to see is true democratic and economic reforms to make the mainland look much more like Taiwan. 

I doubt Taiwan is a good model, have you by chance see one of their parliamentary meetings? i think you can find it on youtube somewhere, it's quite amusing how they can get drunk and have food fights and still be the called "politicians", Taiwan is truly the disgrace of Democracy.

[Redbeard]

I doubt Taiwan is a good model, if any country, follow japan.

No problem there.  I only chose Taiwan because it is ethnically and culturally Chinese while Japan isn't.  Pretty much any non-communist Asian country would be a huge improvement.  South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore.  You pick.  But I was really thinking of countries with a large amount of overseas Chinese like Taiwan, Malaysia and Singapore.   

[Redbeard]

I doubt Taiwan is a good model, have you by chance see one of their parliamentary meetings? i think you can find it on youtube somewhere, it's quite amusing how they can get drunk and have food fights and still be the called "politicians", Taiwan is truly the disgrace of Democracy.

Better a food fight than a bullet in the back of the head.

[MishaK]

No problem there.  I only chose Taiwan because it is ethnically and culturally Chinese while Japan isn't.  Pretty much any non-communist Asian country would be a huge improvement.  South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore.  You pick.  But I was really thinking of countries with a large amount of overseas Chinese like Taiwan, Malaysia and Singapore.   

Note that all of these, insofar as they really qualify as democracies today, were military dictatorships which first attained a certain level of economic wealth before liberalizing politically. So it seems rather that mainland China is indeed following that model: economic growth first, political liberalization second.

[mahlertitan]

Better a food fight than a bullet in the back of the head.

contrary to popular belief, it's actually fairly difficult to get shot in China. You'd have to to something really bad, like embezzle billions of yuan, or rape and kill people.

[Redbeard]

You say you don't idealize Taiwan, but you keep raising it on a pedestal.

Where?  What I said was:

The sad thing about China to me is how well the Chinese do when they live anywhere but China.  It would be interesting to see how big the GDP of China would be if it had the same GDP per capita as overseas Chinese populations (ie Tiawan).

Taiwan was just an example (hence the use of "ie") of a place where the Chinese thrive outside of China.  FYI, using Google* I just found the 2006 estimated GDPs per capita for China ($7,600 ) and Taiwan ($29,000).  My point was, it isn't unreasonable to imagine a China many times wealthier than it is with just a little true economic and political freedom.  As you and others have pointed out, Taiwan doesn't even approach a best case scenario;  yet  it outclasses China with nearly 4x in GDP per capita. 

*  Source CIA World Fact Book.  I'm interested in any different numbers you might have as well.

[Redbeard]

Note that all of these, insofar as they really qualify as democracies today, were military dictatorships which first attained a certain level of economic wealth before liberalizing politically. So it seems rather that mainland China is indeed following that model: economic growth first, political liberalization second.

Note also that none of them are former communist countries.  The party structure is too profitable for the ruling class to want to give up power, and typically too effective at controlling people to allow for meaningful dissent.  Communist countries seldom (ever?) evolve gradually and peacefully into democracies, while many other forms of dictatorship (see above) often do. 

[Redbeard]

well, did you by any chance compare the population ratio of 2 countries? Taiwan is much smaller nation, which means it's easier to manage into prosperity. China is enormous, how can you compare a drop of water with a pool?

If having a large economy dooms one to poverty, why the EU?  How do you explain the US?

[mahlertitan]

If having a large economy dooms one to poverty, why the EU?  How do you explain the US?

i didn't say that, i am merely suggesting that you shouldn't compare taiwan with china, two very different cases.

[MishaK]

What I said was:Taiwan was just an example (hence the use of "ie")

You will find that i.e. means "id est", in English: that is. If you meant to give an example, use e.g.: exempli gratia. It beats me why in English one uses Latin abbreviations instead of simply f.e. to say "for example".

I just found the 2006 estimated GDPs per capita for China ($7,600 ) and Taiwan ($29,000).  My point was, it isn't unreasonable to imagine a China many times wealthier than it is with just a little true economic and political freedom.  As you and others have pointed out, Taiwan doesn't even approach a best case scenario;  yet  it outclasses China with nearly 4x in GDP per capita. 

The appropriate comparison would be China today vs. Taiwan in 1978 or thereabouts. Yuo are looking at two different societies in very different stages of development. Patience, my friend.

Note also that none of them are former communist countries.  The party structure is too profitable for the ruling class to want to give up power, and typically too effective at controlling people to allow for meaningful dissent.  Communist countries seldom (ever?) evolve gradually and peacefully into democracies, while many other forms of dictatorship (see above) often do. 

The ideology esposed by the leadership is virtually irrelevant in analyzing authoritarian regimes. They are all interested in maintaining power. At some point the moment comes where the next slice of wealth for the elite can only be purchased with certain economic liberalizations the require a certain level of political liberalization as well. Then the floodgates are open for a democratization process. It's just very important not to do this backwards and liberalize the political system when a large proportion of the population still lives in poverty. That would lead to populist backlashes and possibly new dictatorship. I am rather optimistic that as long as the leadership is interested in growing the economy, political liberalization will follow gradually.

[Michel]

But London is the world's financial capital, since it overtook New York, and is the most desirable western city on earth. The yanks can take their economy propped up by debt and immigrant labour anyday!

[quintett op.57]

It is, of course, the USA.

But just how big is it?

Well, if California was an independent state the Governator would be able to attend the G8. The economy is as big as France's, by the way.

Russia = New Jersey;

Those countries where the economy could not be matched to an American State appear to be, significantly, the UK, Japan, Germany, China and Italy, or, perhaps, there were better matches!

That can hardly be true  I was reading something about the Russian economy just a few days ago, the GDP for 2006 was somewhere around 1.75 trillion USD. I doubt New Jersey has that amound of activity/production

Actually, french and russian economies are bigger than Californian.
California (1,5 $trillions)  is between Russia (1,7) and Canada (1.2)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_California
The economy of Russia is almost 6 times as big as the economy of New-Jersey.

[Bonehelm]

I doubt Taiwan is a good model, have you by chance see one of their parliamentary meetings? i think you can find it on youtube somewhere, it's quite amusing how they can get drunk and have food fights and still be the called "politicians", Taiwan is truly the disgrace of Democracy.

Yes, Taiwan is a disgrace to the Chinese ethnicity. Even worse, they like the Japs more than China

[Josquin des Prez]

If the Chinese hadn't destroyed their enrmous trading fleet in the 15th (or was it the 14th?) century and turned toward total isolation, they could have dominated the west long ago. We would be talking about the Beijing based West Europe Company instead.

Yes, because as we all know, once you burn down ships they can never be rebuild, not even after centuries. 

I love how the anti-western revisionists never mention Japan, the only Asian power who was able to stand toe to toe with the west (by adopting western ways in the first place. For the slow, that means a bit more then having a really cool fleet), and they did it without being backed by an immense civilization like that of China nor did they have a huge trading fleet to start with. What gives?

By all accounts, even if China had kept their awesome fleet they still wouldn't have been able to resist the west. Their civilization was too decadent for that, their bureaucracy too suffocating. The fact they burned their fleet is irrelevant, what decided their future was the very attitude behind the act...

[Bonehelm]

Yes, because as we all know, once you burn down ships they can never be rebuild, not even after centuries. 

I love how the anti-western revisionists never mention Japan, the only Asian power who was able to stand toe to toe with the west (by adopting western ways in the first place. For the slow, that means a bit more then having a really cool fleet), and they did it without being backed by an immense civilization like that of China nor did they have a huge trading fleet to start with. What gives?

By all accounts, even if China had kept their awesome fleet they still wouldn't have been able to resist the west. Their civilization was too decadent for that.

Now don't start with the racism. Just because George Bush is a numbnut doesn't mean all Americans are dumbasses.

[Josquin des Prez]

Now don't start with the racism.

Because Chinese civilization = Chinese race? The last time somebody made that type of connection we called them nazi...