US Election Returns 2010

[Philoctetes]

Well, this will be interesting.  The US Government has enough inertia that even the most enthusiastic Tea Partiers won't be able to accomplish much in the next two years.  They will probably make the same mistake the Democrats made, thinking that their gains constitute a mandate, rather than a rebuke of the other side.  That will set the Democrats up for a comeback in 2012.

I'm hoping Haley will make a run for president in 2012.

[karlhenning]

Well, this will be interesting.  The US Government has enough inertia that even the most enthusiastic Tea Partiers won't be able to accomplish much in the next two years.  They will probably make the same mistake the Democrats made, thinking that their gains constitute a mandate, rather than a rebuke of the other side.  That will set the Democrats up for a comeback in 2012.

Well, I think the argument could be made that the Democrats had indeed a centrist mandate, and that the mistake (or series of mistakes) was the far edge of the Democratic party imagining that the mandate was theirs.

But that does not seriously quibble with your comment.

[Todd]

That will set the Democrats up for a comeback in 2012.

Doubtful.  One thing, and only one thing, will determine the 2012 election: The Economy.  If it is still weak, the Republicans should be able to regain the White House unless someone like Palin is the candidate.  If it is strong, Obama gets a second term, especially if the Republican candidate is someone like Palin.  As the Clinton era saying goes, it's the economy stupid.

[Scarpia]

Doubtful.  One thing, and only one thing, will determine the 2012 election: The Economy.  If it is still weak, the Republicans should be able to regain the White House unless someone like Palin is the candidate.  If it is strong, Obama gets a second term, especially if the Republican candidate is someone like Palin.  As the Clinton era saying goes, it's the economy stupid.

I think the economy has a chance of looking decent by then, and the Tea Party types may have made a ridiculous spectacle of themselves by that time.   Now the Democrats can be the party of no, which seems to be an advantageous position at this juncture.

[Todd]

I think the economy has a chance of looking decent by then, and the Tea Party types may have made a ridiculous spectacle of themselves by that time.   Now the Democrats can be the party of no, which seems to be an advantageous position at this juncture.

I don't think the Democrats can be the party of 'no' since they are not the opposition party; they still hold the White House and the Senate.  What they need to do is offer legislation that they know the Republicans will block so they can then go to less observant voters and say "Hey, we tried, but the Republicans wouldn't budge."  If the Republican leadership is smart, which most of it is, then the Tea Party will be thrown a few (minor) bones and some more substantive, reasonable legislation will be offered instead.  The Tea Party is a fad that will fade as the economy gets stronger.  Ardent supporters will deny this, of course, but they're wrong, and the Republicans elected this year will sway with the political winds if they know what's good for them.

[Scarpia]

I don't think the Democrats can be the party of 'no' since they are not the opposition party; they still hold the White House and the Senate.  What they need to do is offer legislation that they know the Republicans will block so they can then go to less observant voters and say "Hey, we tried, but the Republicans wouldn't budge."  If the Republican leadership is smart, which most of it is, then the Tea Party will be thrown a few (minor) bones and some more substantive, reasonable legislation will be offered instead.  The Tea Party is a fad that will fade as the economy gets stronger.  Ardent supporters will deny this, of course, but they're wrong, and the Republicans elected this year will sway with the political winds if they know what's good for them.

I don't think that will work.  The public distrusts the government too much for a party to loose points for blocking legislation.  I think the Democrat's best chance is if the Republicans in the house pass some bills that turn out to be unpopular (like gutting social programs that people feel attached to, trying to repeal some parts of the Obamacare that the public, when the get wind of it, actually decide they like, or even more giveaways to she super-rich) so that Obama can play the hero with his veto-pen.

[Todd]

I think the Democrat's best chance is if the Republicans in the house pass some bills that turn out to be unpopular (like gutting social programs that people feel attached to, trying to repeal some parts of the Obamacare that the public, when the get wind of it, actually decide they like, or even more giveaways to she super-rich) so that Obama can play the hero with his veto-pen.

That's certainly one approach, but the problem is that much of the most partisan legislation will die in the Senate, as it always does, so Obama may not have to veto a whole lot, mitigating the hero element.  There will be attempts to roll back Obamacare, to be sure, but it will be piecemeal and only affect a few areas.  Core areas like Social Security, Medicare proper, and other sacred cows will not be touched.  To counter some of these items, the Dems should offer something.  In any event, I don't see a lot of major legislation being passed in the next two years, so it all ends up riding on the economy anyway.

[Scarpia]

That's certainly one approach, but the problem is that much of the most partisan legislation will die in the Senate, as it always does, so Obama may not have to veto a whole lot, mitigating the hero element.  There will be attempts to roll back Obamacare, to be sure, but it will be piecemeal and only affect a few areas.  Core areas like Social Security, Medicare proper, and other sacred cows will not be touched.  To counter some of these items, the Dems should offer something.  In any event, I don't see a lot of major legislation being passed in the next two years, so it all ends up riding on the economy anyway.

Well, the Republican proposal now is to hack "entitlements" (which everyone hates until they realize that they are the ones who are entitled) so that the tax-break for the super-rich can be paid for.  What fraction of the people who voted Republican actually benefit from that strategy?  Not many, I would wager.

[Coopmv]

I would watch for Governor Moonbeam goes to Washington, hat in hand, for a federal bailout of CA in 2011 ...