Countdown to Extinction: The 2016 Presidential Election

[71 dB]

That´s precisely how elections are won, but I have a minor correction: he told a majority of people what they wanted to hear.

Are you sure? I believe Hillary got more votes.

[Wendell_E]

Brexit. Turkey. Trump. What next, I wonder?

That apart, it is the democratically expressed will of the majority of the American people and it must be understood and respected. And irrespective of our personal political opinions and feelings, we should acknowledge that his winning against all odds and against the overwhelming majority of the media and the political establishment is a stunning, unprecedented achievement.

Despite his occasional complaints when the media dared to report things he actually did or said, I think the media helped him a lot more than hurt him.

[Madiel]

And with this appeal he won, which logically implies two things: (1) traditional white Christian Americans are a majority and (2) they feel their country has been taken away from them.

As has been pointed out, it doesn't logically imply they are a majority. Trump won the electoral college, not necessarily the popular vote (although the figures seem to be changing on that from where they were earlier). And millions simply don't vote at all. I will happily accept that they remain a powerful demographic, although over time that is less and less likely to be true.

As to what they feel, I agree. We could explore the logical problems with the reality of that feeling at some length. It gets back to something I think I referred to earlier: people who don't want to accept a mere seat at the table because they believe that somehow they own the table. That America is "their" country, that they own it, and that all the non-Christians, coloured people, gays etc. are some kind of inconvenient lodgers.

[Herman]

Are you sure? I believe Hillary got more votes.

she didn't.

[The new erato]

Despite his occasional complaints when the media dared to report things he actually did or said, I think the media helped him a lot more than hurt him.

Considering that this for many was a vote against the mainstream, I think that actuelly is true.

[Madiel]

I hadn't realised Trump is the oldest ever newly elected President.

Not that Clinton is much younger, and with ever increasing life expectancy I don't see it as that big a deal. I just wasn't aware.

[Jo498]

Reagan was almost 70 as well (less than a year younger than Trump will be) and this was 35 years ago and he was fit enough for two terms... I do not expect Trump to last two terms although this may be wishful thinking.

I am quite surprised. I wondered how most polls could be so inaccurate.

[Florestan]

As has been pointed out, it doesn't logically imply they are a majority. Trump won the electoral college, not necessarily the popular vote

According to CNN he won the popular vote as well.

[Florestan]

I am quite surprised. I wondered how most polls could be so inaccurate.

In the 2014 Romanian presidential elections all polls predicted that the then prime-minister would be at least 10 % ahead of his opponent. What happened actually? He was behind him more than 10%. 

[Madiel]

According to CNN he won the popular vote as well.

As I've observed, the figures on that have been changing. I take it that the count is not complete as there are still several states not yet declared. My point was that you said this was LOGICALLY IMPLIED from him winning the Presidency, and it isn't. It's perfectly possible to become President without winning a majority of the votes, and it has happened several times.

[Florestan]

It's perfectly possible to become President without winning a majority of the votes, and it has happened several times.

I know but it doesn´t seem to be the case in these elections. We´ll see.

[Florestan]

Latest on CNN: Trump 47.7%, Clinton 47.5%, some 150,000 votes ahead.

[Jo498]

In the 2014 Romanian presidential elections all polls predicted that the then prime-minister would be at least 10 % ahead of his opponent. What happened actually? He was behind him more than 10%. 

The pollsters didn't predict Brexit either. I didn't say it was without precedent. Still, it is interesting how far they can be off sometimes when they are generally fairly accurate.

I have the dim hope that Trump might serve as a wake-up call and could lead to reform of the US Democrats (and the Republicans as well). As I said above, I prefer a loud-mouthed demagogue who will very probably lose a lot of his "magic" once in office to a smart, young, capable demagogue (like we see in some European countries, e.g. FPÖ in Austria and maybe Marine Le Pen would also qualify) who might be far more dangerous in the middle/long run.

[Florestan]

The pollsters didn't predict Brexit either.

Precisely. They seem to regularly miss the most important events. 

I have the dim hope that Trump might serve as a wake-up call and could lead to reform of the US Democrats (and the Republicans as well).

It is also a wake-up call, maybe the last one, for the EU political establishment.

[James]

So Trump won .. good for him. He's inherited a big disaster. Let's see what happens within the next 4 years.

[Madiel]

What "big disaster" has he inherited?

[(poco) Sforzando]

And with this appeal he won, which logically implies two things: (1) traditional white Christian Americans are a majority and (2) they feel their country has been taken away from them.

We can´t really blame them, can we? The biggest problem is that instead of understanding, compassion and sincere efforts to redress their economic and social problems, what they get from the political establishment and the intellectual elites is neglect and lies from the former and contempt and mockery from the latter. No wonder they strike back in anger.

That´s precisely how elections are won, but I have a minor correction: he told a majority of people what they wanted to hear. I´m sure that Hillary´s voters too heard from her exactly what they wanted to hear.

He won with a very slim popular majority, and because the structure of the Electoral College and years of gerrymandering allowed him to win. A majority is a majority, but this was no landslide.

[(poco) Sforzando]

Are you sure? I believe Hillary got more votes.

Actually in the end she narrowly lost the popular vote too. But just narrowly.

[Florestan]

He won with a very slim popular majority, and because the structure of the Electoral College and years of gerrymandering allowed him to win. A majority is a majority, but this was no landslide.

Weren´t the structure of the Electoral College and the gerrymandering exactly the same when Bill Clinton or Barrack Obama won the presidency? Just asking, I´m no Trump fan.

[Wendell_E]

He won with a very slim popular majority, and because the structure of the Electoral College and years of gerrymandering allowed him to win. A majority is a majority, but this was no landslide.

I agree, it's no landslide.  However, with the exception of Maine and Nebraska, electors are chosen on a "winner take all" basis for each state, so gerrymandering really has nothing to do with it.