Countdown to Extinction: The 2016 Presidential Election

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

True, but post-presidency book deals and speaking fees can earn Clintonesque money.

I have to admit that "speaking fees" have always been a mystery to me. Why would anyone pay outrageous amounts of money to a retired politician to listen to them give a speech? That sounds about as exciting as reading the contents of a cereal box (and less informative).

[James]

True, but post-presidency book deals and speaking fees can earn Clintonesque money.

That's something I noticed too .. most of them leave and end up very wealthy. Hmmm
Meanwhile what they achieved in office is essentially the same ol' shit. Perpetual war/debt.

[Ken B]

I have to admit that "speaking fees" have always been a mystery to me. Why would anyone pay outrageous amounts of money to a retired politician to listen to them give a speech? That sounds about as exciting as reading the contents of a cereal box (and less informative).

It is payment for influence wielded.
Why pay it when he's an ex president? Because there are future ex presidents whose influence will be sought.

[Karl Henning]

Has the media finally accepted Donald Trump? What that could mean.

Must Republicans face the possibility that Trump will be their candidate? 

[Ken B]

Has the media finally accepted Donald Trump? What that could mean.

Must Republicans face the possibility that Trump will be their candidate? 

No. Trump won't be the nominee.

I'm not convinced he's even much of a Republican; certainly not of the small government variety, and not of the pious variety. Maybe of the "not a Democrat" kind.

What Trump is is a guy willing to call out the established ruling class (never mind he's part of it), especially the GOP establishment. What appeals about Trump is not the policies but the stance. As Christo said here, "Balls and brains." Trump has both.  What he hasn't is restraint, or a consistent set of policies.

[Todd]

What that could mean.

A Democrat wins in 2016.

[Karl Henning]

I'm not convinced he's even much of a Republican; certainly not of the small government variety, and not of the pious variety. Maybe of the "not a Democrat" kind.

What Trump is is a guy willing to call out the established ruling class (never mind he's part of it), especially the GOP establishment. What appeals about Trump is not the policies but the stance. As Christo said here, "Balls and brains." Trump has both.  What he hasn't is restraint, or a consistent set of policies.

All your points are well taken.  And I want to believe that his present polling success is the matter of an angry, disaffected minority.  No, I suppose it is fair to posit the matter of an angry, disaffected minority;  I want to believe that the process will, erm, weed him out.  Only, maybe, he's the noxious, sturdy sort of weed, and pulling him out will leave the whole garden in ruin.

A Democrat wins in 2016.

Yes.  Only, please, God, not Hillary.

[Todd]

Yes.  Only, please, God, not Hillary.

What's Uncle Joe up to?  (Maybe the Dems can dust off Al Gore?)

[Brian]

What's Uncle Joe up to?  (Maybe the Dems can dust off Al Gore?)

I guess if the rumors are true that Joltin' Joe wants to only serve a single term, that would set up a Booker/Castro 2020 ticket.

[Todd]

I guess if the rumors are true that Joltin' Joe wants to only serve a single term, that would set up a Booker/Castro 2020 ticket.

This country needs 3-4 one term presidents in a row.

Since the 2016 field isn't settled, 2020 prognostications seem premature.  Besides, why not Kamala Harris?  That's three identity politics groups rolled up in one attractive package, at least if Obama's aesthetic judgment is to be believed.  (This assumes she wins her Senate bid.)

[Ken B]

All your points are well taken.  And I want to believe that his present polling success is the matter of an angry, disaffected minority.  No, I suppose it is fair to posit the matter of an angry, disaffected minority;  I want to believe that the process will, erm, weed him out.  Only, maybe, he's the noxious, sturdy sort of weed, and pulling him out will leave the whole garden in ruin.

Yes.  Only, please, God, not Hillary.

God has said he won't run.

People are still at the "send a message" stage not at the "choose a favorite" stage.
Still Trump should scare the bejeezuz out of the GOP. Not just because of a third party but because it should be plain that republican voters do not much like republican politicians. I see this as a credit to republican voters. (I see being a die hard fan of a politican as a bad thing.)  Unlike Karl though, I wish MORE people hated our political class and wanted to vote more of them out, regardless of party.

[Brian]

This country needs 3-4 one term presidents in a row.

Since the 2016 field isn't settled, 2020 prognostications seem premature.  Besides, why not Kamala Harris?  That's three identity politics groups rolled up in one attractive package, at least if Obama's aesthetic judgment is to be believed.  (This assumes she wins her Senate bid.)

First I'd heard of Kamala Harris, but after reading up on her, add her to the list - it just seems like the Democrats are in an awkward transition stage where all their charismatic, photogenic "natural politician" types are either older than the hills (Bill, Joe), or too young/inexperienced to run this time (Booker, Harris, the Castro twins). Seems like 2-3 of the latter group are destined for presidential tickets, just not until next decade.

[Karl Henning]

Unlike Karl though, I wish MORE people hated our political class and wanted to vote more of them out, regardless of party.

You may be right, at that.

[ibanezmonster]

I wish MORE people hated our political class and wanted to vote more of them out, regardless of party.

That's why you vote:

#DeezNuts for President!

[(poco) Sforzando]

No. Trump won't be the nominee.

I'm not convinced he's even much of a Republican; certainly not of the small government variety, and not of the pious variety. Maybe of the "not a Democrat" kind.

What Trump is is a guy willing to call out the established ruling class (never mind he's part of it), especially the GOP establishment. What appeals about Trump is not the policies but the stance. As Christo said here, "Balls and brains." Trump has both.  What he hasn't is restraint, or a consistent set of policies.

The likelihood that Trump will become the nominee, much less president, is slim. Trump is all about schtick, the politician as stand-up comic. This .001 percenter resonates with a group of disaffected mostly white Americans who think despite his New York City billions he is "one of them," and that he "tells it like it is." He chose to speak in Alabama because that state has the most punitive anti-immigration laws in the country, and his position was put together by none other than that fine upstanding senator Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III. But if saying the current president's Hawaiian birth certificate doesn't prove he was born in Hawaii, and if you believe for a minute that The Donald spends all his free time reading the Bible, then I have a Palm Springs golf course I can sell you.

The reason I don't believe he'll be elected is that he doesn't really want to be. He wants to rev up the base, stir the pot, crack a few jokes, poke a few fingers in the eyes. Next to him, Jeb looks like a schlemiel even when attacking Trump, Rand Paul is totally lost, Hillary totally phony, Bernie too progressive and a Jew besides, and Biden indecisive. But if The Donald is elected, he'll have to make good on all his big talk and settle down to the hard work of governing, where he'll find that Mexico won't cough up the funds for his wall, ISIS won't be cowed by his one-liners, rounding up 11 million "illegals" is if nothing else a logistical nightmare, and the 14th amendment isn't going away just because he says so. If he isn't nominated or elected, he'll have the luxury of pointing fingers at the unfortunate moron who is and saying, you people blew it, you could have had me.

But even if the chance of a Trump presidency are slim, don't forget there was a time a certain 10th-rate actor was counted out, and there was another unlikely candidate some eighty years ago who rose to national leadership and more on the grounds of his oratorical charisma and his hatred for a group of minority undesirables. "The best lack all conviction, while the worst / Are full of passionate intensity."

[Karl Henning]

And there's evidence that, inch-by-inch, GOP voters are taking Trump's rise more seriously, whether they support him or not. Rasmussen has a poll out today that finds 57 percent of likely Republican voters now think Trump is likely to be the Republican nominee.

Two months ago, when he announced his bid, the corresponding figure was 27 percent.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/Decoder/2015/0821/Why-Donald-Trump-s-2016-bid-looks-less-and-less-like-entertainment

[Karl Henning]

In other news:  Sarah Palin Delivers Incoherent Speech in Iowa

[Todd]

Trump is all about schtick, the politician as stand-up comic.

It's time to rely on a professional analyst: Al Sharpton.  Trump's a plant.  (And professional snitches can sniff out people who aren't who they claim to be.)

[listener]

Brother Stair, THE (self-designated) Last Day Prophet, from his commune in South Carolina has announced with the arrival of Donald Trump and the fact that he is a Presbyterian and the symbol of the Presby's is a Burning Bush that a Trump and a Burning Bush are warnings from God.  I think the warnings are actually directed at people who won't pay attention to him (Stair).   

[drogulus]

    I would have said a few months ago that Biden had no chance, now he has a chance, maybe one chance not to blow up his own campaign with one too many loopy sounding off the cuffers. In his favor are that people like him and see him as an experienced pol. Inexperienced "I'm not from Washington" types often take the early lead in polls where dingbats rule, then fade when people contemplate their real world residence in the WH. With Biden a sense of reality is a double edged sword, it can take him up and crash him pretty quick, but people do know he's as prepared to be President as anyone out there. Can he go months without a serious gaffe, or even one too many "no really, I'm not being facetious!"? No, Joe, you're not being facetious, a fukin' retahhd perhaps.....