Countdown to Extinction: The 2016 Presidential Election

[Daverz]

Plus you know, Trump could be right. Trump walked all over the GOP, which had a field of accomplished professional politicians, and is competitive for the presidency doing his own thing against the democrats. He probably thinks his stuff is working. And seriously when Trump announced did you imagine he'd get this far? I surely didn't.  His schtick might not work but it's been startlingly effective so far.

You go down there, Mr. Trump.

[drogulus]

Hypothesis
The Clinton email leaks may not have the objective of electing Trump.

They may have the objective of seriously handicapping Clinton when elected by giving all her foreign policy decisions the aura of being made with Clinton Foundation donors in mind.

     I think Putin is playing Helter Skelter with the election, that he wants to cause as much trouble as he can. Trump is his unwitting asset, but at this stage his usefulness is pretty much over. The effect on HRC policy, including Russia policy, is very unlikely to be in the direction Putin wants. I think this election combined with Putin's behavior will put HRC in a strong position. This is going to backfire.

     

     

[Herman]

In a way I think is good on Trump. "Paint me as I am, warts and all." There's a certain integrity to that, a refusal to (in some ways) deceive.

That's the 'he tells it like it is" fallacy.

It's a fallacy, because he may be uncontrolled in his behavior, but he's far from honest or candid.

He has lied about his success and money, and he can't release his tax returns, since that would expose him as a fraud.

If you say you have plan A as a president, and the next day you have plan B, and you deny ever having entertained plan A, you're not being forthright.

[snyprrr]

^^^

Yea, and Clinkles is an angel who has never ever ever lied to anyone about anything ...zzzZZZzzzzZZZzzz.... snore...



1) hacked emails reveal Soros is Hillary's puppet master

2) Tim Cain has dinner with Soros's son

3) what was happening the last time we has a potus who couldn't make it up the stairs without assistance?


"We came, we saw,... he died" (cackle)



A vote for VaJayJay is a vote for Brussels, Soros, and so many 3rd world immigrants "instant citizens" that the next election will have to be held with an interpreter


OK, so maybe it happens with Trump too...




But seriously, this "Trump caused the holocaust" stuff is just hilarious... 






But you all don't see that the IntraNational banksters can foment whatever they want regardless of who is in "office"? Maybe if their pick gets in, they won't have to slaughter as many people initially; with someone in office who is against them they may have to wring more overt necks... right?



Again, I point out that "dead" cop that showed up at Trum Tower with a non-traceeable glock with a siilenncer... and the reply I got was one of "oh it sounds like hollywood".... do you people read ANYTHING?? (other than WashPoNYTHuffPoMSNBCCNN) As if jasonbourne.com is just a writer's fabrication... "oh, they don't have people like that, good chap"...




Cuomo son anchor on TV: "no one's been more in HillDawg's corner than we... we have given her such a pass" (paraquote)


PARAQUAT!!!!!





Take THAT, you potheads!!!!!SCHEDULE 1 FOR YOU!!!!!!!You heroin junkies!!!!!

[Ken B]

That's the 'he tells it like it is" fallacy.

It's not a fallacy to criticize a politician who is slick and untruthful is it? That's just the obverse of your alleged fallacy.

[Sergeant Rock]

.... do you people read ANYTHING??...

Do you, snyprrr, read anything that isn't fabricated by a tinfoil hat wearing nutjob publishing out of his parent's basement? 

Sarge

[Rinaldo]

Any thoughts on Evan McMullin? (if you're asking "who", you've probably answered my question)

I wonder if the whole Trump horrorshow might at least nudge America away from the two-party system and towards a broader political field..

[Karl Henning]

I wonder if the whole Trump horrorshow might at least nudge America away from the two-party system and towards a broader political field..

Tough to say. Or, I am simply not sanguine. Firstly, the two parties are themselves rather an entrenched power; they won't let go lightly. Secondly, America's latest taste of third-party candidature: Nader, Florida.

[Ken B]

Any thoughts on Evan McMullin? (if you're asking "who", you've probably answered my question)

I wonder if the whole Trump horrorshow might at least nudge America away from the two-party system and towards a broader political field..

Very possible. Both parties are broken. The gop may come apart this time. A similar thing happened in Canada when the Tories got destroyed in an election. Not that they had  a Trump like figure but it's a precedent.

[André]

I assume you refer to the recent (2015) canadian general election. The Tories were not 'destroyed' at all. They made a rather good showing considering they had been in power for almost 10 years. As has been mentioned before, the Liberals won a majority of seats with barely 40% of the popular vote vs the Conservative's  32%. The big difference between seats held (almost double) was due to the canadian electoral law.

There are pluses and minuses in the system. Among the consequences was that the last Conservative government (we never refer to them as Tories, that's the English Parliament) - got elected in 2011 precisely because of the 'system', despite having been rejected by 60% of the voters. The exact same position was achieved in 2015, the Liberals this time winning a plurality of seats with less than 40% of the popular vote.

What we consider normal is that a 'tide' away from, or toward a party will make or break the election. In this particular case (the 2015 Liberal win), this is confirmed by the lastest polls ( June 2016: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-quarterly-polls-jun2016-1.3607570 ). I think the 'Westminster system' is as good as any to assess the public's mood and its desire for stability or change. It's simply different, and AFAIK, less prone to bipartisan polarization. There is a real "choose your position in the middle" possibility.

Ironically, I voted (again) for the usually left-of-center New Democratic Party which this time (2015) decided to ride a strictly centrist electoral plank, leaving its progressive electorate totally confused. Meanwhile, Trudeau's Liberal Party (normally slightly right of centre) decided to surge in the void created and firmly occupied the left of centre political position.

All the while, the Conservatives played their usual game, totally missing the mood: disillusion of, and fatigue from, the last decade's depressing negativism in social issues, economic priorities and international retrenchment (Canada lost its long held U.N. Security Council to Portugal in 2012 - an international rebuke that dismayed many).

You can never tell when the tide will start to shift, and when it will crest. But one of the unmistakable signs come from the people's desire to be acknowledged, recognised and counted on to make an imprint on the country's future. Usually that means more progress (economic and social). Sometimes there is a need for pause (progress and change induce fatigue, confusion and stress), but rarely is there a need, let alone a clamor to return to the past, let alone the long gone past.  "Good old days" is generally a synonym for "bad old ways".

[Pat B]

Any thoughts on Evan McMullin?

I think he has a decent chance to come in 5th.

[Karl Henning]

Any thoughts on Evan McMullin? (if you're asking "who", you've probably answered my question)

For reminding Republicans and the country at large that Republicans generally are not unhinged haters, we can say, well done.

[Spineur]

I would be interested to read your analysis about the recent ABC projection for the electors college 275 Clinton 191 Trump.

[mc ukrneal]

I would be interested to read your analysis about the recent ABC projection for the electors college 275 Clinton 191 Trump.

That cannot be right. If Clinton had 275, that means Trump would have 263. Unless - perhaps the rest are still considered as undecided? In any case, as it is a state by state count, this is probably a low amount for Clinton considering the state by state polling results currently available to us. it is well known that Trump has to win a number of important states, while Clinton only has to win a portion of them (this because of the assumptions made in the red and blue states staying that way).  Clinton starts with 217 and Trump starts with 164. Thus Clinton has to get only 53 more, while Trump needs over 100.

[Karl Henning]

I would be interested to read your analysis about the recent ABC projection for the electors college 275 Clinton 191 Trump.

(None of the following is original to me, of course.)

The Electoral College map would be a challenge for even a moderate, or at least non-divisive, Republican presidential candidate.  But El Tupé's demographic limitations (all of which is the hate-spewing candidate shooting himself in the foot) make it all the tougher for him, this year.

(Of course, the election is not for another three months, merciful heavens . . . and who knows what might happen in the interval.)

At present, though, El Tupé has put himself at a dire disadvantage in many of the crucial "swing states" (the states which could fall in either category on Election Day), and he has "succeeded" (if that is quite the right word) in putting some states which had traditionally been safely in the Republican category, "in play."

At the moment, it does look very much like it is Hillary's election to lose.

(Of course, I said much the same, for a different calculus of reasons, of Mitt Romney four years ago;  and he did lose, of course.)

[snyprrr]

Do you, snyprrr, read anything that isn't fabricated by a tinfoil hat wearing nutjob publishing out of his parent's basement? 

Sarge

Just look up that dead cop in Frump's Tower... the one with the fancy firepower wit da sillencier.... please, prove me wrong, I love being wrong about stuff like this. His last name was "Bush", please just look it up.... I do get pissy when people don't believe that the article doesn't exist, or whatever...

it happened about 10 days ago... please, just link up GMG for me on this one thing


I mean, are you guys saying you believe this didn't actually happen, ... I don't understand why this gets tagged as tinfoil when it was in the MSM (main stream media)...

I do, I get ... gulp... "offended" (ah, send in the thought police) when ya'll say "tin foil" for ANYTHING OUT OF BOX. It seems that if I was some kind of Dr.Evil, I could totally pull the wool over ya'lls eyes simply by doing things in a way that would get you to conclude that "anyone who believes that must be tinfoil".


The Lancet says that flouride is a neurotoxin, not me. Thank you!

[Sergeant Rock]

Just look up that dead cop in Frump's Tower... the one with the fancy firepower wit da sillencier.... please, prove me wrong, I love being wrong about stuff like this. His last name was "Bush", please just look it up....

Anthony Shark (not Bush), a retired police officer (not dead, but definitely drunk) tried to breach a secure area at Trump Tower. Your claim that it was a dead (but really alive) FBI agent named Bush is just bullshit. See Snopes: http://www.snopes.com/deceased-fbi-agent-found-at-trump-tower-with-silenced-pistol/

Yes, a drunk Shark did try to walk through a secured area at Trump Tower. So what? How is this an Israeli/CIA/Mossad/Brussels/Clinton/Bush/Yale/Jewish banker conspiracy?

But why do you care anyway? You admit it doesn't matter who wins the election. You claim the world is controlled by that diverse cabal led by Yale graduates and Jews. Trump is just one of their pawns (according to your theories)...right? Or are you really saying Trump is the savior, and the powers-that-be are trying to kill him? Funny how they let him take the nomination. Your conspirators aren't so powerful after all. They send an old drunk retired cop to make the hit...wow, scary 

Sarge

[Florestan]

First Past The Post ---- this is the worst, most pernicious and most absurd electoral system ever devised... 

[Daverz]

I always go to Sam Wang's site for election projections:

http://election.princeton.edu/category/2016-election/

[Spineur]

I always go to Sam Wang's site for election projections:

http://election.princeton.edu/category/2016-election/

Thank you.  This is exactly what I was looking for.