Sound The TRUMPets! A Thread for Presidential Pondering 2016-2020(?)

[Karl Henning]

And . . . more business geeeenius:

The Republican tax cut is a big, fat failure.

It has achieved none of the things that Republicans promised it would. It didn't reduce deficits. It didn't target the middle class. And it didn't win goodwill with voters.

Yet, for some reason, President Trump wants to do it all over again . . . in the next nine days, no less.

Last week the Treasury Department reported that the federal budget deficit swelled by 17 percent, or $113 billion, from fiscal 2017 to 2018. This is noteworthy, and not only because Republicans usually claim to despise deficits (at least, they do when Democrats are in charge).

It also reflects a massive decoupling of the business cycle from the federal budget.

[...]

The Treasury numbers should not be surprising, by the way. Literally every independent forecaster predicted that the tax cut would increase deficits on net. Yet Republicans were somehow caught flat-footed by the news.

After all, when the White House published its 2018 fiscal plan a year and a half ago, Trump officials predicted that deficits would shrink substantially in 2018, thanks both to his tax cuts and the Miracle-Gro that Trump was supposedly sprinkling across the economy.

Yet in the end, the deficit was almost twice what the White House estimated it would be: $779 billion, compared with the forecast $440 billion.

[Karl Henning]

Dow drops sharply as two industrial giants warn of trouble

U.S. markets opened in a steep slide on one of the busiest earnings days of the year as a global sell-off and a disappointing report by 3M — a major industrial company that is a window into the U.S. economy — had nervous investors fleeing stocks.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped more than 500 points, or 2 percent, in morning trading Tuesday. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index was down 2.2 percent, its fourth decline in as many days. The tech-heavy Nasdaq, which has been whacked in recent weeks from the sell-off in the so-called FAANG shares — Facebook, Amazon.com, Apple, Netflix and Alphabet's Google, Alphabet — was off 2.6 percent.

All three slipped to three-month lows.

Do they not understand that President Toadstool is God's gift to US industry?  Sad.

[Karl Henning]

And, it really isn't a Trump campaign, if he isn't trumpeting his racism:

The Post reports: "Voters are headed to the polls in 15 days, with a lot at stake for the president. [President] Trump's strategy has been to return to the immigration issue that helped catapult him into power in 2016. Ominously invoking a caravan of migrants headed to the southern U.S. border, Trump has threatened to close the border, cut off aid to Central American nations and of course, build his wall." The report notes, "He doesn't really have the power to do these things solo — but they may be enough to scare his voters to the polls."

The frequency with which Trump reverts to immigrant bashing and appeals to white fear underscores how dependent the GOP is on cultural and racial hysteria. As the temporary increase in GOP voter enthusiasm from Supreme Court Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh's confirmation wears off, Trump looks for something to take the place. The white, male and noncollege educated base – primarily in places that in no way will be affected by border crossings – needs to be juiced up.

This time, Trump's xenophobic stew of fear, exaggeration and blatant lies comes with a new twist. With no evidence whatsoever, he claims "criminals and Middle Easterners" are mixed into the crowd.

[SimonNZ]

The tax cut will result in our playing lower taxes for 2018.

I am pleased with the legislation.

And what about the consequences beyond the end of your nose and beyond the immediate?

[SimonNZ]

NYT: Former Federal Reserve chair Paul Volcker sees "a hell of a mess in every direction", takes aim at the plutocracy.

[Karl Henning]

"It's just rhetoric" [wink, wink]

On the rare occasions when a reporter is able to ask Trump for evidence for his more fantastical claims, he simply waves away the request and repeats the lie. When one reporter asked what proof he had that the people walking through Mexico in a caravan are "hardened criminals," he replied with this clever riposte: "Oh please. Please. Don't be a baby, okay?" And of course, terrorists have to be added to the smorgasbord of threats coming from Mexico, because if you were a member of the Islamic State trying to get to the United States, the way to do it would definitely be to fly to Guatemala, then walk 1,500 miles in a group being followed every step of the way by the news media.

One can't help but wonder how Republicans respond in their own minds to this blizzard of dishonesty. I'm sure that your average Republican politician thinks he's a good person, and that he also thinks he's honest. But when he sees his leader, the one he supports with such enthusiasm, go before a cheering crowd and vomit out a string of race-baiting lies, does he pause for a moment and ask what his own moral culpability is?

[71 dB]

And what about the consequences beyond the end of your nose and beyond the immediate?

The Republicans care about the deficit only when they aren't in power... ...or when it's about welfare programs.

[Ghost of Baron Scarpia]

I believe all politicians and both political parties to be corrupt. But I find myself agreeing with Republicans on more policies (although not all, e.g. I support legalization of pot, I am pro-environment, and don't want the government poking its nose in regarding all social issues). 

There are strong corrupting influences in politics, but there are politicians who are trying to fight these corrupting influences, rather than align themselves with them. I find Trump to be the most nakedly corrupt politician I have ever seen.

[Sydney Nova Scotia]

Save the world and deport Trump to the Moon, one way ticket (just tell him he has won a prize)

[Ghost of Baron Scarpia]

We will have to agree to disagree.

You don't all agree that there are politicians who are not corrupt, or you don't agree that Trump is corrupt?

[Daverz]

I support legalization of pot, I am pro-environment, and don't want the government poking its nose in regarding all social issues). 

This administration is despoiling the environment, doubling down on the drug war, and "poking their noses in" in all sorts of ways as Trump and Pence pander to the theocratic right.  Enjoy your tax cuts.

[Ghost of Baron Scarpia]

This administration is despoiling the environment, doubling down on the drug war, and "poking their noses in" in all sorts of ways as Trump and Pence pander to the theocratic right.  Enjoy your tax cuts.

As well as stoking racism and white nationalism, and degrading US scientific and research infrastructure.

[Sydney Nova Scotia]

Trump is not a politician, he is an American Idiot

[SimonNZ]

To b fair, Trump does not support Sessions' position on pot.  Trump is not Pence and Pence is not president.  I will enjoy the extra chunk of change.

What you're enjoying is a bribe. That "extra chunk of change" is all it takes to have you tolerate their corruption and incompetence and societal divisions and eecological indifference. I'll bet you would have previously thought your price was higher.

[amw]

I am pro-environment

You are definitely not pro-environment if you believe this administration is acceptable

(not that any other administration has been better, apart from—for some reason—Nixon)

[SimonNZ]

You mentioned Nixon; Teddy Roosevelt was a pro-environment Republican.

TR was anathema to the Republicans of his time, and they were appalled by his ascendancy on mckinnleys death, and by much of what he achieved following.

[amw]

You misunderstand me.  I realize that this administration as well as most Republican administrations are not recognizably "pro-environment" (they lean more towards trying to balance economic development with green concerns).  My being generally pro-environment is an example of where my views diverge from Republican policy.  I guess you did not really comprehend my post, since pointing out several areas where my views do not match Republican policies was the point of my post.

I don't support Trump's (or any Republican's) admin 100%.  What I said was that I side with Republicans more often than with the Dems.  To me, anyone who supports one political party 100% does not exercise critical thinking.

I did misunderstand, evidently, sorry about that.

For me climate is the only important political issue at the moment, and I'd be a one-issue voter if there were any politicians to vote for who actually proposed radical action to preserve the environment. There aren't, so I'm a non-voter. I also don't 100% support any political party or administration, although I tend to side with the Ejército Zapatista de Liberación Nacional more often than than with other political parties.

[Ghost of Baron Scarpia]

For me climate is the only important political issue at the moment, and I'd be a one-issue voter if there were any politicians to vote for who actually proposed radical action to preserve the environment. There aren't, so I'm a non-voter. I also don't 100% support any political party or administration, although I tend to side with the Ejército Zapatista de Liberación Nacional more often than than with other political parties.

Being a non-voter because Democrats are not sufficiently radical on the environment makes no sense. Democrats are not sufficiently concerned with climate. But a Democratic administration and congress would not have withdrawn the US from the Paris climate accords, would have not schemed to pay public utilities for burning coal, would not have sought to dramatically weaken emission and fuel economy standards imposed on US car manufacturers, would not have sought to eliminate regulations preventing oil and gas producers from venting methane at well heads, would not have opened the north slope of Alaska to oil exploration, would not have sought to open all US coastal waters to oil and gas production, would not have eviscerated support for climate and renewable energy research and development.

If you think you make more sense than someone who supports Trump because they want to "make America great again" you are mistaken!!!!

[amw]

It's certainly true that the Trump administration has done all those things, but I mean the questions I ask are: a) why were they allowed to do all this, and b) who is going to undo those things if elected? The answer to a) is in part the inaction of the previous Democratic administration, under which oil & natural gas extraction increased significantly in the US, and "coincidentally" at the same time proposed environmental regulations, which would not have been enough in the first place, were slow-walked or scrapped; the answer to b) is no major politician I'm aware of (though possibly someone like Bernie Sanders could be pressured into environmental action if elected president). There are more local politicians taking steps to improve matters for their communities, but without agroecology & energy degrowth it's hard to envision things changing for the better.

Here in NZ I typically vote for the Green Party although its climate policies aren't that great—it generally does well on social issues though & I think it's important to keep them in Parliament so they have a platform.

[amw]

In early voting news, Texas is seeing record numbers of voters turn out. This being Texas, though, turnout is still proportionally lower than most other states, so I'm not ready to start burning effigies of Ted Cruz quite yet. https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2018/oct22.shtml (remember that part of why Texas is such a reliable R state is because of some very large, solid red counties—e.g. Tarrant [Fort Worth-Arlington], Collin [Plano-Frisco-Allen], Denton [Denton])

NBC News is already claiming Republicans are winning. They also said Democrats would win in 2016, so interpret that however you like.

Despite Rs appearing to lead in Georgia, and his own personal lead in the polls, R governor candidate Kemp is still fearmongering for last-minute donor cash. He's also still Secretary of State and his office has been throwing out as many ballots from black-majority counties as possible, because when was Georgia politics ever not corrupt and racist? (Probably in the 1500s when it was part of the Creek Confederacy)