Sound The TRUMPets! A Thread for Presidential Pondering 2016-2020(?)

[JBS]

Somehow the right wing and Fox news have to be blamed while pointing out the absurdities of "wokeness."

When they distort and misinform, they should be. And they distort and misinform a lot.

[drogulus]

Somehow the right wing and Fox news have to be blamed while pointing out the absurdities of "wokeness."

     It serves as a caricature for Fox far more than it serves me for anything.

     "Woke" had a short life for "wokers". I recall how the New Atheists did an own goal by coming up with "brights". That one struck me as particularly awful.

[Todd]

I do find the New Left pretty whacky. Sen Warren said during her campaign that her nominee for the department of education would have to pass an interview from a nine year old trans child. I'm sure there was an appropriately "woke" reason for that idea.

I admit that I don't pay much attention to Goofy Elizabeth Warren, so I had to look this up to make sure it's real.  Sure enough, it is:

Sen. Elizabeth Warren: "Young Trans Person" Will Choose My Secretary Of Education

What the hell is wrong with Democrats?  Forget the concept of a nine year old "trans" child - whatever that really means - what adult in his or her right mind would either A.) seriously rely on a 9 year old for anything, or B.) use such a rhetorical device?  And what gullible fools would fall for such nonsense?  And then there's the actual reality that the Department of Education is far less important to the establishment of educational standards than large states like California or Texas.  Goofy is the right word.

[Todd]

High cheek-boned Goofy Elizabeth Warren never had a chance - thankfully - but idiots in the crowd cheered her stupidity.  There are millions of idiots just like them. 

[BasilValentine]

A number of posts with no connection to the thread's subject. ^ ^ ^ Warren? Maybe in the They're Off thread — months ago when she was a candidate. Of course we can understand why you'd rather divert attention from Trump. Or you could always start a thread about Elizabeth Warren if it's important to you.

[Todd]

High cheek-boned Goofy Elizabeth Warren is still relevant because she is being considered for veep.  If Biden dies, and she is veep, she would be president.  So her public stupidity and the number of Democrat idiots who like her is highly relevant today. 

And Trump is toast.

[BasilValentine]

High cheek-boned Goofy Elizabeth Warren is still relevant because she is being considered for veep.  If Biden dies, and she is veep, she would be president.  So her public stupidity and the number of Democrat idiots who like her is highly relevant today. 

And Trump is toast.

Oh, well then. My mistake. If there's a chance she might be a veep pick and that Biden might get elected and that he might die in office and that there are people who might cheer if that happened and the veep were elevated, then obviously the mental capacities of those who might applaud such a chain of events must be vigorously discussed now.

And thanks, you just ruined toast for me.

[Todd]

A post-Trump GOP is wishful thinking.

The demise of the GOP has been predicted before.  On this very forum.  It has not come to pass.  It will not come to pass, at least for a good while.  Trump's defeat will bring with it the delights of Dem infighting, rendering the party of esteemed slave-owners Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson much less effective than it otherwise could be.

[71 dB]

The GOP has been striving thanks to their ability to fight (when the Dems don't fight at all), voter supression, gerrymandering and election frauds. Without these things the GOP would have perished long ago. Now, it's actually the Dems who are in danger, because they have been showing the middle finger to the left so much that the left is ready to leave (not vote for Biden) even when the left has nowhere to go (nobody to vote)

[Todd]

Without these things the GOP would have perished long ago.

Incorrect.  The GOP has a good ground game, and their digital presence is at least competitive with the Dems.  Trump's is the best in the business.  It will not help in the face of a depression.  The severe negative economic impact of >30 million unemployed or furloughed workers will not abate by November.  That is the primary reason Trump will lose. 

I very highly doubt anyone else on this forum pays close attention to the secondary mortgage market, but if people want to see a big part of future bread and butter politics, check out ratings agencies' projections on mortgage defaults, current GSE guidelines, and money center bank responses - and current default rates.  RPL portfolio defaults have already skyrocketed, and even A paper performing loans are being hit hard.  The secondary loan market has frozen in certain segments.  It's not 2007-08, but it is real, and it is happening right now.  We are at least a year away from coming out from under the emergency responses, and that is without overt government interference, which will come no matter who is in power.

[BasilValentine]

A post-Trump GOP is wishful thinking.

As long as Biden is the opponent a Republican victory is possible. He's pretty much a real life Frank Underwood, only one suffering from dementia.

I think the dementia race is pretty close too. Puts me in mind of the Frank Zappa tune: "Elect any vegetable" — I think that was the title. Something like that anyway.

[Todd]

I think this contraction is fundamentally different from the ones in 2008 or 1929

It is structurally different than 2008 or 1929 in that there is less market leverage and banks are better capitalized.  But there are some meaningful differences that have an immediate, severe impact.  Repo financing disappeared almost overnight - literally.  Even the largest financial firms ran into brief liquidity challenges.  The speed with which it happened exceeded what happened in 2008.  The Fed has had to take measures this time that it didn't take in 2008, but it did so without hesitation, which is the main saving grace this time around.  Lessons have been learned.

The full economic impact of Covid hasn't even hit yet, and it isn't reflected in the numbers.  Hopes for a quick rebound in summer are pie in the sky.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but won't the Fed
address that (if it already hasn't) through QE ?

Quantitative easing has nothing at all to do with private loan deferment programs and government imposed modification programs, nor does it address mandatory servicing advances, let alone default rates.

[Todd]

If the contraction turns out that long and severe AOC will be elected president by 2024 (if we still have a government).

TARP created HAMP, which will be around until 2023 - unless it is revitalized or revamped, which may happen.  The current programs being offered by private lenders and servicers and mandated by GSEs are deferral programs.  Even though borrower friendly, and a much better response than in 2007 and 2008, waves of deferred mortgage payments will help the party offering more debtor relief come election day.

A couple of additional takes on what is to come for the economy:

The week business waved goodbye to the V-shape recovery

'W-shaped' recovery may be too optimistic, Fed's Powell suggests

[Karl Henning]

President Flounder, Or, Who could foresee there would be a downside to a fact-averse White House?:

34 days of pandemic: Inside Trump's desperate attempts to reopen America

The epidemiological models under review in the White House Situation Room in late March were bracing. In a best-case scenario, they showed the novel coronavirus was likely to kill between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans. President Trump was apprehensive about so much carnage on his watch, yet also impatient to reopen the economy — and he wanted data to justify doing so.

So the White House considered its own analysis. A small team led by Kevin Hassett — a former chairman of Trump's Council of Economic Advisers with no background in infectious diseases — quietly built an econometric model to guide response operations.

Many White House aides interpreted the analysis as predicting that the daily death count would peak in mid-April before dropping off substantially, and that there would be far fewer fatalities than initially foreseen, according to six people briefed on it.

Although Hassett denied that he ever projected the number of dead, other senior administration officials said his presentations characterized the count as lower than commonly forecast — and that it was embraced inside the West Wing by the president's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and other powerful aides helping to oversee the government's pandemic response. It affirmed their own skepticism about the severity of the virus and bolstered their case to shift the focus to the economy, which they firmly believed would determine whether Trump wins a second term.

[Karl Henning]

Even more damaging for Trump, he is unlikely to stop being Trump. He cannot give up his daily press fix (despite stories he was going to cut back), and we know he is not suddenly going to become the voice of reason and science. Trump will be Trump. And that's the problem for him and Republicans. In a stunning failure of leadership and governance, Republicans have been entirely unable to comfort the country and provide confidence they have a path forward. They may finally have exhausted the voters' patience.

[arpeggio]

What is exhausting to me are those who still think Trump walks on water.

And what amazes me is all of those who continue to support Trump in spite of the anti-Trump positions of many prominent conservatives like:

Rick Wilson
David Frum
Charles Sykes
Steven Schmidt (who endorses Bidan)

Even William Kristol thinks Trump is not fit to be President.  That is the only thing we agree on.

[Karl Henning]

What is exhausting to me are those who still think Trump walks on water.

And one of the signs of the Cult of Personality is, the attitude that any Conservative writer who criticizes Trump isn't "really" a Conservative.

[Todd]

Trump Derangement Syndrome is real.  GMG provides fresh evidence daily. 

Take heed sufferers: Only 262 days until the healing starts.

[arpeggio]

What is so frustrating is that no matter how many conservatives that can be produced who think Trump is a bad President, his supporters will come up with bogus rationalizations to invalidate them.

I have in my files a letter that was signed by sixteen members of the Heritage Foundation stating that Trump's actions over Ukraine is a violation of the constitution, but why bother?

I used to be a conservative and one of the strengths of the movement is that it is normally very unified.  If one puts a hundred conservative in a row, 70% of them will point in the same direction.  The fact that so many conservatives have broken with the Republican party is highly unusual.

It is not unusual for Democrats to squabble amongst themselves.  Trump is so bad he has unified the Democrats.  He is so bad most of us realize that in spite of our differences we have to get rid of him.  Once he is gone we can go back to squabbling among ourselves.

[arpeggio]

^^^^^^^

Really.  We can come up with dozens of prominent Republicans who think Trump is unfit and the best you can come up with is to call them clowns.