Brexit

[The new erato]

https://www.youtube.com/v/ghcsrblhn7A

Wonderful tune!

[Mr. Minnow]

Well, Corbyn has not changed his tune.... 

He still wants to leave EU, and no referendum....

And still focused on a customs union (which is included in the negotiated deal BTW),  instead of the much more  economically significant internal market. You know, because of those terrible state aid rules and all that... 

Corbyn: Brexit would go ahead even if Labour won snap election


Meanwhile, according to a recent poll: Among Labour voters, there is now 72% support for staying in the EU and just 66% of Labour voters who backed Brexit in 2016 would vote Leave in a new referendum.

YouGov Poll Reveals 64% Want Second Brexit Referendum

It's frustrating, but as I said a bit earlier, we aren't going to know what the various factions in the Commons really intend to do until the vote on May's deal is out of the way. If her deal is voted down, as appears highly likely, that will be her moment of maximum vulnerability and hence the logical time for Corbyn to table a motion of no confidence. If May survives that, as she might well, there won't be an election; but if it's also clear that there is no Commons majority for any form of Brexit (also very possible), he could then support another referendum, while arguing that he'd tried all other options and this was the only one left. It's one thing to support a new referendum in those circumstances, when the public may accept that it's the only remaining option for breaking the impasse. It's quite another to support it now, when May's deal has yet to be voted on, and gift the Tories the attack line that he's "sabotaging Brexit". And if he's to follow the policy agreed at Labour's conference, he would have to table the no confidence motion to try to force a general election first, before supporting a new referendum. The problem with that is that if he tables the motion now he'll almost certainly lose it, the Tories will rally around May - as will the DUP - and some of those criticising him for not supporting a referendum now will then criticise him for strengthening May's position.

The crunch point is clearly the vote on May's deal. If it's voted down, and a series of votes makes it clear that no form of Brexit can get through the Commons, that will be the moment when Corbyn has to decide: he either sticks to saying he'd pursue Brexit, or he comes out for a referendum. I think he will do the latter, not least because if he doesn't, the party membership - which is his support base but is also very pro-EU - will desert him in droves. At present there's frustration, but as the vote on May's deal is less than a month away that can probably be contained. But if he doesn't go with the membership's view even if/when a referendum appears to be the only remaining viable option he'll lose his support base, and that will be the beginning of the end for him.

Might Brexiteers, when faced with the clear possibility of new referendum with a popular majority in favour of remaining in the EU, back May's Brexit deal in the end? 

I doubt it, not unless the EU gives them the sort of changes to the backstop that they want, and I don't see how that can happen, since they've been calling for the backstop to either be time-limited or have a mechanism which allows the UK to leave it unilaterally. Both the Irish government and the EU have made it clear that those are non-starters. They've also said that no clarifications or assurances can contradict the contents of the withdrawal agreement.

There is apparently a view among some Tories that if they can get the DUP back on board, that would bring a lot of Tory MPs back too, maybe enough to get May's deal through. But the DUP are hardliners and will therefore, like the Tory hardliners, want the sort of change to the backstop which the EU won't offer. And remember, 117 Tory MPs voted against May in the recent no confidence vote. It doesn't need all that many of them to vote against her deal for that deal to be rejected. I certainly can't see the ERG voting for it.   

And the same might go for Corbyn, after he discovered he is not going to get that general election?
Mind that he hasn't ruled out supporting the negotiated deal, provided there would be some assurances - whatever those might be. He will counting on winning the next elections anyway... in this way May will have done his dirty work for him..

I'd be amazed if Corbyn were willing to vote for May's deal in any circumstances. The membership may be frustrated that he hasn't already come out for a referendum, but if he voted for a Tory Brexit that would be it: they'd feel betrayed and he'd be gone shortly thereafter. It would be political suicide. There's no way Labour's six tests can be met: they're nonsense, but they consist (I assume deliberately) largely of claims made by Tory Brexiters like Davis, who said we could retain the exact same benefits of our current trading arrangements with the EU even when we leave.

As for getting a general election, I'm sure he knows that's unlikely. He wouldn't win a no confidence vote now, and while he might win it if he tables it immediately after May's deal is voted down, the odds are still against it. But he still has to try so he can say he tried all other options before concluding that a referendum is the only way out. Labour MPs in seats that voted leave might be more inclined to accept a referendum in those circumstances, whereas right now they wouldn't.

[Que]

Thanks for those insights. 

I think the hard Brexiteers had a possible soft Brexit calculated in, but had counted on the opportunity to turn it into a hard Brexit later on. This is why the issue of the whole of the UK being "trapped" into a close relationship with the EU infuriates them and makes this deal so to hard fir them to swallow. This mechanism was an invention by May BTW - probably to appease the DUP - the EU only wants a gararantuee on Northern Ireland. But it will be a dilemma for the Brexiteers, if the alternative is another referendum and possibly no Brexit at all. I think May will use that prospect to pressure them.

A general election wouldn't solve Brexit without Labour being clearly in favour of remaining in the EU. And I agree it's unlikely anyway.

So it seems another referendum is back on the charts as the best way out, now popular opinion has finally shifted in favour of remain. The biggest obstacle for another referendum is May. But a coalition of an united opposition and some Tory rebels might pull it off. Fingers crossed.....

Q

[Mr. Minnow]

Thanks for those insights. 

I think the hard Brexiteers had a possible soft Brexit calculated in, but had counted on the opportunity to turn it into a hard Brexit later on. This is why the issue of the whole of the UK being "trapped" into a close relationship with the EU infuriates them and makes this deal so to hard fir them to swallow.

I think you're right. I remember reports earlier this year that some Brexiters, Gove among them, were arguing that the most important thing is to make sure the UK leaves in March. After that there won't be an option to remain, we would have to rejoin, which would be much harder. They might also be hoping that once we've actually left, more of the electorate may take the view that since we've started this process we might as well finish it.

There were certainly reports some months ago that people like Gove were saying that as long as we leave in March it doesn't really matter what agreements we come to with the EU - we can rip them up and go off in a different direction once we're out. That would match up with reports last December, after agreement was reached in the first phase of the talks, that Davis was telling the Brexiters that they didn't need to worry about what was in the agreement because it had no legal force. And then they wonder why the EU doesn't trust the UK government.

This mechanism was an invention by May BTW - probably to appease the DUP - the EU only wants a gararantuee on Northern Ireland. But it will be a dilemma for the Brexiteers, if the alternative is another referendum and possibly no Brexit at all. I think May will use that prospect to pressure them.

She's already saying to the Brexiters that if they don't support her deal then theres's a risk Brexit might not happen at all (certainly a "risk" I'd be willing to take), while saying to the Tory remainers that if they don't support her deal they risk getting a hard/no deal Brexit.

So it seems another referendum is back on the charts as the best way out, now popular opinion has finally shifted in favour of remain

The thing that worries me is just how much opinion has really shifted to remain. There does seem to have been some movement - polls for a while now have had remain ahead by about 53-47 - but that's far too close for comfort for my liking. Some of the most enthusiastic voices calling for a referendum seem to assume that a remain win would be pretty much guaranteed, but I don't think it is.

It certainly should be: we now know that there isn't going to be an extra £350million per week for the NHS, in fact Brexit will almost certainly mean less money for public services. We know we'll have to stump up £39billion to meet our commitments, but there was no mention of that last time. Immigration from EU countries may be going down, but immigration from non-EU countries is rising, so a significant net reduction in immigration looks unlikely, which won't please leave voters. In fact, if we want to sign trade deals with the likes of India and China, you can bet that stronger rights for their citizens to live and work in the UK will be part of the deal. We know that the negotiations on our future relationship with the EU are going to be long and difficult, not "one of the easiest deals in history".

The trouble is, these are mere facts, and we saw last time that facts may not get much of a look-in. If there is a referendum we can safely assume that the leave side will attempt to frame it as an establishment coup designed to rob the people of their precious Brexit. If the remain side isn't careful (assuming remain is an option on the ballot paper) populist jingoistic bullshit could easily win again. I agree that a referendum looks as though it may be the only way out of this mess, so I do hope it happens, but the risks are obvious and considerable. 

[Que]

The thing that worries me is just how much opinion has really shifted to remain. There does seem to have been some movement - polls for a while now have had remain ahead by about 53-47 - but that's far too close for comfort for my liking. Some of the most enthusiastic voices calling for a referendum seem to assume that a remain win would be pretty much guaranteed, but I don't think it is.

[...]

I agree that a referendum looks as though it may be the only way out of this mess, so I do hope it happens, but the risks are obvious and considerable.

Agreed and agreed.

If there is no clear and decisive majority in favour of remain in successive polls, it would be very risky to organize a referendum since any other outcome than remain would lead to utter chaos. And nobody is going to burn their fingers on such a decision.

Parliamentarians are in majority in favour of remain, but won't vote for it without a clear popular mandate.
And leaving the EU is the official  party line of both major parties.
So, in my assessment May is absolutely right: it is her deal or no deal.... And if it comes to that choice, there will be a majority  for May's deal of remainers from both parties plus Tory Brexiteers that are loyal to May. And Corbyn will allow it, because he doesn't want to be responsible for a hard Brexit.

So, the issue whether there will be a referendum will be decisive IMO.

Q

[Que]

Just in case anyone still needed convincing that Corbyn has no clue whatsoever what he is talking about in relation to EU rules:

Four reasons Jeremy Corbyn is dead wrong about EU state aid

The Labour leader claims EU rules would stymie his efforts to regenerate the economy.
But his arguments make no sense.

No, it doesn't make any sense. But since when is that an obstacle in politics?
As a civil servant I've dealt with quite a few politicians, and unfortunately many of them do not act on the basis of hard evidence and real facts that they weigh carefully before taking a decision, but instead on the basis of vague and untested preconceived notions they've picked up somewhere along they way....

I guess Corbyn is one of those. You would think that with a topic as crucial as this he would do his homework and let himself be informed by experts, or at least listen to them? But no... he likes his own personal "alternative truth" better - reality is either too complicated or just politically inconvenient.

Q

[Que]

Brexit: US ambassador to UK Johnson warns on trade deal (BBC)

You would almost forget that the UK is already party to a trade deal with the US, and it is better than anything Trump will ever offer....

Q

[Que]

Best of luck in the New Year....



I'm actually quite confident that a disaster will be avoided. 

But not so sure if that apllies to an exit from the EU altogether... A couple of years of soul searching on the sidelines, might be in the cards.

Q

[vandermolen]

There is a danger that the government may have to introduce emergency powers to force it through, thereby eroding democracy.

[Que]

There is a danger that the government may have to introduce emergency powers to force it through, thereby eroding democracy.

From my view point, from across the Channel, British parliamentary democracy has been steadily eroded right from the moment of the referendum result. What was needed, was a comprise to bridge the divide between the 52% leavers and the 48% renainers. Unfortunately the British system is not built for that, and was/is unable to deliver it. The magnitude of that unresolved issue is now tearing the political system and society, and perhaps even the UK as a state, apart.
Something has to give, and, irrespective of the outcome of Brexit, a major realignment and reform of the British political system seems unavoidable, even necessary.

Q

[The new erato]

, a major realignment and reform of the British political system seems unavoidable

Sorry Que, what benefits politicians though hardly anybody else, will never be reformed unless a revolution takes place.

[Que]

Sorry Que, what benefits politicians though hardly anybody else, will never be reformed unless a revolution takes place.

Agreed, some sort of crisis would have to force the hand of politicians....

A trigger could be a constitutional crisis, the break up of one or both of the two major parties or the threat of a Scottish secession.

Q

[Que]

By pushing Brexit and rejecting a 2nd referendum, Corbyn is actually forcing remainers and moderate leavers to support May's deal as the only alternative to a hard Brexit.

Will he listen to reason?

An open letter to Jeremy Corbyn: Brexit would destroy your political project

I doubt it... Changing his mind now, would tarnish his credibility... that ship has sailed...
He got himself, after two years of tactical manoeuvring on Brexit, into a lose-lose situation.

Q

[Mr. Minnow]

By pushing Brexit and rejecting a 2nd referendum, Corbyn is actually forcing remainers and moderate leavers to support May's deal as the only alternative to a hard Brexit.

Will he listen to reason?

An open letter to Jeremy Corbyn: Brexit would destroy your political project

I doubt it... Changing his mind now, would tarnish his credibility... that ship has sailed...
He got himself, after two years of tactical manoeuvring on Brexit, into a lose-lose situation.

Q

As I said a bit earlier, it's not realistic to think he's going to come out for a referendum before the vote on May's deal, especially with that vote now only two weeks away. He'll follow the sequence agreed at the Labour conference: assuming May's deal falls, as it probably will, he'll try to force an election. He almost certainly won't be able to do that, so that's when he'll have to choose: stick to pursuing Brexit or support a referendum. I still expect him to go for the latter because now it's not just his enemies on the right of the party calling for it, it's his own support base on the left. If he alienates them he's finished. If he comes out for a referendum when all other options fail he can argue that it's the only way to break the impasse while also giving his base what they want.

[Que]

As I said a bit earlier, it's not realistic to think he's going to come out for a referendum before the vote on May's deal, especially with that vote now only two weeks away. He'll follow the sequence agreed at the Labour conference: assuming May's deal falls, as it probably will, he'll try to force an election. He almost certainly won't be able to do that, so that's when he'll have to choose: stick to pursuing Brexit or support a referendum. I still expect him to go for the latter because now it's not just his enemies on the right of the party calling for it, it's his own support base on the left. If he alienates them he's finished. If he comes out for a referendum when all other options fail he can argue that it's the only way to break the impasse while also giving his base what they want.

I'm curious if you'll be right!  We will know soon enough.....

I think he prefers being in power to pursuing Brexit, but would like to do both.

Q

[André]

An interesting article about the irish 'backstop' issue


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46528952?wpisrc=nl_todayworld&wpmm=1

[Mr. Minnow]

An interesting article about the irish 'backstop' issue


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46528952?wpisrc=nl_todayworld&wpmm=1

No surprises there. The Brexiters don't give a shit about Ireland or the border issue, so they never bothered to examine it before the referendum and dismissed any concerns expressed as scaremongering. If they had taken it seriously they would have realised just what a problem it was likely to be in the event of a vote to leave, but their contemptuous lack of interest has come back to bite them on the arse as it threatens to deny them their precious hard Brexit. Naturally, in a display of world-class projection, their cynical and utterly reckless disregard of the acute sensitivity of the border issue and Irish concerns is transmuted into a cynical EU and Irish government "weaponising" the issue. 

I like this bit:

"We simply cannot allow the Irish to treat us like this," the former minister said about the negotiating tactics of the Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar.

The Conservative MP was exasperated that the Republic of Ireland (population: 4.8m) has been able to shape the EU negotiating stance that has put such pressure on the UK (population: 66m).

It's almost as if being part of a multinational bloc gives an individual country greater clout than it would have on its own. I wonder if there are any lessons we could learn from this?

[Ghost of Baron Scarpia]

No discussion leading up to the big vote? It seems like a train wreck, comparable to the US federal government, is to come...

[Ghost of Baron Scarpia]

Crickets here.

I picture our UK members in an ad hoc flotilla headed for the continent...

[ritter]

...
I picture our UK members in an ad hoc flotilla headed for the continent...

Operation Dynamo in reverse?

The received wisdom is that the Suez crisis in 1956 marked the end of Britain as a country with any real influence in the international scene. Suez, I'm afraid, was a walk in the park compared to the Brexit shambles.

The Telegraph on yesterday's vote in Parliament  :