Brexit

[Mr. Minnow]

Food for thought:

In a bizarre turn of events, Theresa May could get her Brexit deal through after all – the key lies with Yvette Cooper

For the moment I'm sticking with my prediction that the UK will leave the EU on May's deal....
I agree with the analysis in the article that a move to close off the possibility of an (accidental) No Deal, reinforces the negotiated deal as the only viable option.

I don't think I'd bet too much money on a bunch of ideological fanatics backing down and accepting a deal which they don't regard as a "proper" Brexit. It's possible of course, but thus far the word compromise has been conspicuously absent from the ERG dictionary.

[XB-70 Valkyrie]

I'm afraid this isn't very flattering to the British

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/17/opinion/sunday/brexit-ireland-empire.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

The Malign Incompetence of the British Ruling Class

With Brexit, the chumocrats who drew borders from India to Ireland are getting a taste of their own medicine.

By Pankaj Mishra

The basic idea seems to be that the combination of arrogance and incompetence that was inflicted on British Colonies is now being applied at home....

Well, not very flattering to the ruling class and royalty in any case I suppose. Nevertheless, an excellent article that should be required reading, and explains much of the needless suffering, genocide, and horror of the last, oh 400 (?) years! Also they forgot to point out the chumocrats' well-known penchant for bestiality (oink! oink!) among other "interesting" behaviors. (You peons wouldn't understand!) Forgive me for not being enthralled every time there is news of a new royal spawn.

[Que]

I don't think I'd bet too much money on a bunch of ideological fanatics backing down and accepting a deal which they don't regard as a "proper" Brexit. It's possible of course, but thus far the word compromise has been conspicuously absent from the ERG dictionary.

I think there will be a point where hardline Brexiteers will accept May's deal, to avoid Brexit not going through altogether and to keep the Conservative party afloat (and prevent a Corbyn govt). There reasoning will be: any Brexit now, the "right" Brexit later.... After all, what's on the table is just the exit agreement - the future relationship with EU has still to be determined. Though it does mean accepting that Northern Ireland will be economically aligned with the EU forever. But I doubt if Brexiteers are really that much concerned with NI anyway....

Q

[Mr. Minnow]

I think there will be a point where hardline Registers will accept May's deal, to avoid Brexit not going through altogether and to keep the Conservative party afloat (and prevent a Corbyn govt). There reasoning will be: any Brexit now, the "right" Brexit later.... After all, what's on the table is just the exit agreement - the future relationship with EU has still to be determined.

This is possible, but one of their objections to the withdrawal agreement, particularly the backstop, is that it keeps us aligned to EU rules in the absence of a trade agreement, and the perfidious Europeans will ensure that no such agreement is reached for years, if ever. This, so the argument goes, means they will make sure the backstop is activated, at which point they will have us where they want us and keep us there, knowing there is no mechanism in the backstop to allow us to leave it unilaterally. Of course, if they're prepared to leave by voting for May's deal and then just tear up the entire withdrawal agreement once we're out, that's a different matter. They're probably mad enough to try it, but they'd have to explain why they were willing to vote for the WA in the first place if they then proceeded to trash it.   

Though it does mean accepting that Northern Ireland will be economically aligned with the EU forever. But I doubt if Brexiteers are really that much concerned with NI anyway....

Q

Brexit voters certainly aren't, hence those polls from a few months back which found that most leave voters would still want Brexit even if it undermined peace in Ireland. Pro-Brexit politicians are a different matter: the DUP care about nothing else but NI, and the Tory party is called the Conservative and Unionist party, so losing a part of the UK would be a pretty big deal to them.

[Que]

Lo and behold.....

Labour calls for vote in Commons on holding second referendum

But wait..... now read the fineprint:

"The wording called for May's government to hold a vote on two options – its alternative Brexit plan and whether to legislate "to hold a public vote on a deal or a proposition" that is supported by a majority in the Commons."

So.... unless it is supported by a majority the House of Commons, the option of remaining in the EU would not be on the ballot paper. Same for May's deal or a the option of no deal. Corbyn plays the same game as May: it's his way or nothing.

Would the necessity of reaching an agreement with the EU be a consideration at all?  That will be May's decisive trump card....

Q

[Mr. Minnow]

Lo and behold.....

Labour calls for vote in Commons on holding second referendum

But wait..... now read the fineprint:

"The wording called for May's government to hold a vote on two options – its alternative Brexit plan and whether to legislate "to hold a public vote on a deal or a proposition" that is supported by a majority in the Commons."

So.... unless it is supported by a majority the House of Commons, the option of remaining in the EU would not be on the ballot paper. Same for May's deal or a the option of no deal. Corbyn plays the same game as May: it's his way or nothing.

Would the necessity of reaching an agreement with the EU be a consideration at all?  That will be May's decisive trump card....

Q

To be fair, it is the first step in the direction of a referendum Labour has made - David Lammy has acknowledged that, and he's one of the loudest voices in Labour calling for a referendum. That said, it's clearly not the unequivocal support that the headline implies. This may be one reason that it doesn't go as far as the People's Vote campaign would like:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/22/labour-frontbenchers-warn-of-opposition-to-second-brexit-referendum 

If a referendum is to happen, it really needs to be the last option left once all other options have been voted down. We seem to be headed for a series of indicative votes, so no doubt everyone will want their preferred option to be the one that is voted on last.

Here's another good example of an article that doesn't quite say what the headline implies:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/22/tory-hardliners-reconsider-may-deal-amid-fears-that-brexit-could-be-blocked

So the ERG and co are falling into line behind May's deal!

Er, not quite.....

Tory Brexit supporters alarmed by the prospect of a delay have hinted they could be won over in the coming weeks – if Theresa May can produce a serious concession from Brussels on the Irish backstop.

And what would that "serious concession" be?

some Brexiter MPs or those in seats which voted leave have suggested in recent days that there is a path to win their support.

"There are clearly forces at work to block and frustrate Brexit and the most important thing, whether it's good deal, no deal or whatever, is that we leave," said Ben Bradley, the MP for Mansfield. "The public and leave voters will accept nothing less and that means that, yes, I will vote for a revised deal that doesn't include a permanent backstop because, whilst I still have issues with it, those issues are then temporary and our leaving on 29 March is absolutely secured."

Ah, so the "serious concession" is time-limiting the backstop - you know, the change which both the EU and the Irish government have already stated countless times, including as recently as yesterday, that they won't agree to. So, deal almost done then.

[Que]

Brexit: May goes back to Brussels but EU says nothing has changed

So, the Tory hardline Brexiteers of Rees-Mogg c.s. succeeded in creating a win-win situation: either the EU caves in and throws the Irish (from both sides of the border) under the bus so the UK can end up with a unicorn deal, or they end up with their desired hard Brexit with the perfect pretext to blame the EU for it.

Brexit enabler Corbyn dropped the ball last week while playing his "clever" waiting games and is now sidetracked....

An "accidental" hard Brexit is now in the making - the pound fell hard - though one can hardly call it accidental anymore...

I expect the EU to agree at the 11th hour to an (unconditional) extension/ delay of three months up to the European elections, just to counter the image that it pushed the UK off the cliff.... But it probably won't make any difference...

Quote of the day from Labour's Stella Creasy:
"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing again and again and expecting different results..."

Q

[Florestan]

Brexit: May goes back to Brussels but EU says nothing has changed

So, the Tory hardline Brexiteers of Rees-Mogg c.s. succeeded in creating a win-win situation: either the EU caves in and throws the Irish (from both sides of the border) under the bus so the UK can end up with a unicorn deal, or they end up with their desired hard Brexit with the perfect pretext to blame the EU for it.

Brexit enabler Corbyn dropped the ball last week while playing his "clever" waiting games and is now sidetracked....

An "accidental" hard Brexit is now in the making - the pound fell hard - though one can hardly call it accidental anymore...

I expect the EU to agree at the 11th hour to an (unconditional) extension/ delay of three months up to the European elections, just to counter the image that it pushed the UK off the cliff.... But it probably won't make any difference...

Quote of the day from Labour's Stella Creasy:
"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing again and again and expecting different results..."

Q

A fact which compounds the whole mess is the Romanian presidency of EU. The current Romanian government starting with the prime-minister is an unmitigated disaster, a poisonous mixture of extreme incompetence, clinical stupidity and sheer contempt for the rule of law (the minister of Justice is particularly dangerous and the minister of Agriculture is particularly ridiculous.). I feel ashamed and embarrased that such people will be in charge of the EU affairs for the next half year and I hope they'll make fools only of themselves, not of the Romanian people as a whole.

[Mr. Minnow]

Brexit: May goes back to Brussels but EU says nothing has changed

So, the Tory hardline Brexiteers of Rees-Mogg c.s. succeeded in creating a win-win situation: either the EU caves in and throws the Irish (from both sides of the border) under the bus so the UK can end up with a unicorn deal, or they end up with their desired hard Brexit with the perfect pretext to blame the EU for it.

Before the vote on the Brady amendment, one of Sky's political correspondents posted a tweet in which she said that she'd just spoken to a hardline Brexiter. This MP told her that the ERG and co were backing that amendment so that if the EU rejected it and we end up with no deal, they could paint the EU as the villains of the piece. So yes, you're right, that's exactly what yesterday was about. They don't give a shit about the consequences of inflicting a no deal Brexit on the country: they're quite willing to leave with no deal - some are even enthusiastic about it - just as long as they don't have to take responsibility for it and can blame the EU instead. That is deemed "politically acceptable", especially as it won't be the likes of Johnson and Rees-Mogg who will suffer. And May, predictably enough, caves in to these fanatics every time. The extent to which the Tory party is willing to put it's own interests above the country's never ceases to amaze.

At this point I wouldn't blame the 27 for telling us to sod off, but that would play into the hands of the Brexiters' "blame EU intransigence" narrative. I hope the EU reiterates what was said a few days ago: we'll reopen the WA, we can change the backstop, but that means staying in the customs union. The Brexiters and May will reject that of course, but it's better if any rejection is seen to come from them rather than the EU.

The one thing that may scupper their plans is that there are cabinet ministers who have made it pretty clear that they'll resign if May pursues a no deal Brexit. Just as agreeing to a soft Brexit would probably split the party because the Brexiters would go apeshit, so a hard Brexit could well split the party because the Remainers wouldn't stomach it.   

Brexit enabler Corbyn dropped the ball last week while playing his "clever" waiting games and is now sidetracked....

Not sure blaming Corbyn is entirely fair. Look at the Labour MPs who voted with the Tories yesterday: it's partly long-time Brexiters, but also people on the right of the party like Caroline Flint - i.e. the people who were blaming Corbyn for not doing enough to stop Brexit, and who are now enabling it by voting with the hardline Brexiters in the Tory party.

An "accidental" hard Brexit is now in the making - the pound fell hard - though one can hardly call it accidental anymore...

I'm still hoping we get to a point where it's no deal or a referendum. My hopes aren't very high after yesterday, as the Commons was only willing to back a non-binding amendment against no deal, but it's still possible that if faced with that choice, a lot more MPs would back a referendum rather than see us crash out and fall off the cliff.

[Mr. Minnow]

I said a bit earlier in this thread that while a referendum may be the only way out of this mess and I hope it happens, it's far from certain that remain would win (despite the polls). Here's one of the reasons I hold that view:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/30/it-is-terrible-but-i-still-want-it-crewe-voters-size-up-no-deal-brexit

The 73-year-old former builder and engineer said he had been lied to by the leave campaign. "They didn't tell us the true facts. They kept us in the dark like mushrooms and fed us bullshit," he said. "We voted because of immigration and we didn't realise how poor we would be. It will be terrible but I still want it, because of immigration."

[Que]

[Marc]

The idiot Tusk acting and talking like God Almighty.
If only he had said "I wonder on what party drug those Brexiteers were on...".

No fun.
It's gonna be bad, both for the UK and the EU.
Already people here hoarding up medicin made in the UK.

And more and more people will feel heavily disappointed by all those 'smart ass' politicians.
More chances to grow for all the Trumps, UKIPs, Alternative für Deutschland, Le Pens, Kaczynski's, Orbáns and Wilders's.
Divide et impera.

[Mandryka]

This made the news on RMC this morning, with some snide comments from the wonderful Jean Jacques Bourdin

Paris: Un appartement vendu pour 39 millions d'euros

Selon les informations de l'hebdomadaire, l'acheteur est un industriel anglais souhaitant quitter le Royaume-Uni pour s'installer à Paris. Le Brexit accélère actuellement les investissements. Les acheteurs fortunés se rabattent sur Paris face à la menace d'un tassement des prix outre-Manche


https://www.20minutes.fr/paris/2444927-20190206-paris-appartement-vendu-39-millions-euros

I don't like the sound of that tassement !

[vandermolen]

Daily Telegraph today:

[Christo]

Daily Telegraph today:

A special place in hell indeed. 

[vandermolen]

A special place in hell indeed. 

They deserve worse!

[Christo]

They deserve worse!

Richard Strauss, you mean? Or Karl Jenkins? 

[vandermolen]

Richard Strauss, you mean? Or Karl Jenkins? 

Yes, either of them. Especially 'Ein Heldenleben' (takes cover in concrete bunker) or possible endlessly repeated recordings of the 'New Year's Day Concert from Vienna'.

[Mr. Minnow]

I'm just relieved that the British politicians and papers professing to be so offended by Tusk's comment have always been so scrupulously polite and diplomatic in their use of language about the EU. Otherwise this outbreak of Delicate Flower Syndrome might just look a tad hypocritical.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-donald-tusk-theresa-may-hell-eu-boris-johnson-jeremy-hunt-the-sun-stalin-a8767871.html

[Que]

This plan, forging an ad hoc coalition of May loyalists and Remainers, might actually fly:

Back May's deal, then hold people's vote: plan to end Brexit deadlock

If you can't agree on content, then at least on procedure.... 

A 2nd referendum with a choice between the negotiated deal and remaining in the European Union, will offer a clear choice and is likely to settle the issue politically. And both options are realistic and can be implemented immediately, as opposed to the many "pies in the sky"...

But..... what is our Jeremy (Corbyn) going to do? 
Neither option would be in line with his preferred Brexit solution (not in but closely aligned to the internal market), though May's deal could be moved into that direction in further negotiations. But for that to happen, Labour would need to take over government during the transition period.

Q