Brexit

[Mr. Minnow]

The deadline is so close,  but so little is certain about the endgame...

I still think that it's either going to be May's deal, or a referendum on that deal.

Barnier thinks May's chances have improved, and is working on an add on to the withdrawal treaty.

I think he is right. A significant part of the Tory hardliners will climb back on board when faced with the alternative options of a delay, a soft Brexit or a referendum with the possibility of no Brexit. If they will be joined by Labour leavers, May might just make it....

In case May's deal is approved or a referendum on it, a delay is inevitable...
But not beyond the EU elections in May, because the Germans have identified serious legal problems if the UK wouldn't participate in those elections while still a member state. And they're quite right.

Q

There have been reports claiming that many of the hardliners are now willing to vote May's deal through. Even if true, that doesn't necessarily mean May will win the vote. The first vote was lost by a margin of 230, so she'd have to win over 115 MPs while keeping all of those who voted for it last time. There are about 20 hardcore Tory rebels who will probably vote against it in any circumstances, and they alone pose a major obstacle to getting it through. Then there's the DUP as well.

But it may be that it just about scrapes over the line, especially if enough Labour MPs in leave-voting seats decide to put saving their own skins ahead of the national interest. And if that happens, what a miserable, wretched state of affairs it will be. If it passes, we'll be leaving with a deal that virtually no-one wants, voted through by MPs on both sides of the argument simply to prevent some other scenario which they regard as even worse. And even then, that won't be the end of it. Not just because negotiations on the future relationship haven't even started yet, but also because the situation changes completely once we're out.  A referendum then becomes almost impossible, and once May has served her purpose of "delivering Brexit", she'll be defenestrated ASAP and replaced by a hard Brexiteer who can get on with the job of giving us as hard a Brexit as possible - and if that means tearing up the withdrawal agreement in the process, they'll probably do it.

At this point the only hope left appears to be the amendment that would see May's deal voted through subject to approval in a referendum. If that doesn't happen we're pretty much screwed.

[Que]

And if that happens, what a miserable, wretched state of affairs it will be. If it passes, we'll be leaving with a deal that virtually no-one wants, voted through by MPs on both sides of the argument simply to prevent some other scenario which they regard as even worse. And even then, that won't be the end of it. Not just because negotiations on the future relationship haven't even started yet, but also because the situation changes completely once we're out.  A referendum then becomes almost impossible, and once May has served her purpose of "delivering Brexit", she'll be defenestrated ASAP and replaced by a hard Brexiteer who can get on with the job of giving us as hard a Brexit as possible - and if that means tearing up the withdrawal agreement in the process, they'll probably do it.

Quite agree with your first point. This is only the withdrawal agreement in what is basically a blind Brexit - the game has just begun...
Though I do not expect hardliners to take over from May. If they do, that would mean the end of the Tory government, and possibly the Conservative party. I rather expect the UK will move towards a soft Brexit in the time to come. If not... I could see Scotland, and possibly Northern Ireland, leaving...

At this point the only hope left appears to be the amendment that would see May's deal voted through subject to approval in a referendum. If that doesn't happen we're pretty much screwed.

If May doesn't get her deal through as it is, that might be her only option. But there is a lot of resistance amongst Tories and quite a few within Labour - including its leadership - against a referendum

I think Corbyn would actually prefer May's deal to go through (without his official support), then to take over government and negotiate his own preferred final deal on the future relationship with the EU. For this reason I think Corbyn will not prevent Labour leavers to vote for May's deal. He is going to earn that badge as "Brexit enabler"..... 

Q

[Mr. Minnow]

Quite agree with your first point. This is only the withdrawal agreement in what is basically a blind Brexit - the game has just begun...
Though I do not expect hardliners to take over from May. If they do, that would mean the end of the Tory government, and possibly the Conservative party. I rather expect the UK will move towards a soft Brexit in the time to come. If not... I could see Scotland, and possibly Northern Ireland, leaving...

Any successor to May who tries to shift direction to a soft Brexit would run into the same problem as her: the ERG and co will scream blue murder and prevent anything they deem insufficiently ideologically pure from passing. And once we're out they won't be deterred by the thought that Brexit might not happen at all. It could indeed lead to the break-up of the UK, but their fanaticism is such that they'll probably take that risk.

If May doesn't get her deal through as it is, that might be her only option. But there is a lot of resistance amongst Tories and quite a few within Labour - including its leadership - against a referendum

I think Corbyn would actually prefer May's deal to go through (without his official support), then to take over government and negotiate his own preferred final deal on the future relationship with the EU. For this reason I think Corbyn will not prevent Labour leavers to vote for May's deal. He is going to earn that badge as "Brexit enabler"..... 

Q

Corbyn is in a no-win situation though. His pro-referendum MPs have been berating him for months for not coming out in favour of another vote, while other MPs supported him not doing so. But now that he has come out for another referendum that latter group of MPs is slagging him off. The PLP is much more split on another referendum than the membership, which means Corbyn is going to get a lot of stick no matter which way he goes. In my view, those on the Labour side who actually vote for May's deal are the Brexit enablers. Ironically, some of them will be the same people who have called Corbyn a Brexit enabler. Self-awareness tends not to be their strong point.

[JBS]

Any successor to May who tries to shift direction to a soft Brexit would run into the same problem as her: the ERG and co will scream blue murder and prevent anything they deem insufficiently ideologically pure from passing. And once we're out they won't be deterred by the thought that Brexit might not happen at all. It could indeed lead to the break-up of the UK, but their fanaticism is such that they'll probably take that risk.

I suspect that to people like ReesMogg, getting rid of those pestiferous socialists in Scotland is a feature, not a bug.

[Mr. Minnow]

I suspect that to people like ReesMogg, getting rid of those pestiferous socialists in Scotland is a feature, not a bug.

Some of them do seem to think that, which for members of the Conservative and Unionist Party is pretty extraordinary.

[Ghost of Baron Scarpia]

They voted down the deal again, I just read, and just over 2 weeks to go. Someone needs to explain this to me. Britain is going to be set adrift the the North Atlantic with no trade or immigration agreements with the continent? All those EU citizens working in Britain are going to be crowded on a barge and towed back to Dunkirk and dumped unceremoniously into the channel waters?

Donald Trump is starting to seem relatively reasonable to me...

[Iota]

Actually, the fact the deal has been voted down means, for now, that the possibility of staying in the EU remains open, although a distant possibility, as it would require a number of things to happen, none of them by any means certain. These 'things', being a convoluted sequence of votes in Parliament leading to the possibility of another Referendum (itself completely unpredictable, such is the parlous state of logic when up against ideology), or revoking Article 50 (i.e cancelling Brexit) for example.
But really it could go any way at the moment, I haven't even touched on most of the possibilities, we could even end up with May's Deal again.

You'll need to wait for others here for a more insightful view, but this page may offer some clarification.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46393399

[Ghost of Baron Scarpia]

Actually, the fact the deal has been voted down means, for now, that the possibility of staying in the EU remains open, although a distant possibility, as it would require a number of things to happen, none of them by any means certain. These 'things', being a convoluted sequence of votes in Parliament leading to the possibility of another Referendum (itself completely unpredictable, such is the parlous state of logic when up against ideology), or revoking Article 50 (i.e cancelling Brexit) for example.
But really it could go any way at the moment, I haven't even touched on most of the possibilities, we could even end up with May's Deal again.

You'll need to wait for others here for a more insightful view, but this page may offer some clarification.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46393399

I did see that BBC article, but it didn't answer the question, "what are they thinking?"  Same thing a one year old is thinking when he throws his rattle on the floor, I suspect.

[Que]

I've been involved in efforts by the Dutch government to get Brexit related emergency legislation through (our) parliament before the deadline. Most believe we won't need it in the end. Though chances of an "accidental" hard Brexit seem to be slim, I'm not entirely sure....

I think the EU will only agree to either a long term delay (of at least a year) or a short term delay to mid May to accomodate a 2nd referendum.  So in all likelihood, those will be the final options in Westminster.

Q

[Mr. Minnow]

I've been involved in efforts by the Dutch government to get Brexit related emergency legislation through (our) parliament before the deadline. Most believe we won't need it in the end. Though chances of an "accidental" hard Brexit seem to be slim, I'm not entirely sure....

I think the EU will only agree to either a long term delay (of at least a year) or a short term delay to mid May to accomodate a 2nd referendum.  So in all likelihood, those will be the final options in Westminster.

Q

There's already talk of May trying to bring the WA back for a third vote (because the public having a second vote would be undemocratic but the Commons having a second then a third vote is obviously fine). If it happens, the intention is to make the choice between her deal or no deal, in the hope that with no time left to do anything else, her deal would be passed because even most of the hardcore Brexiters would shit themselves at the idea of no deal actually happening. If she were to get her deal through that way it would be blatantly obvious that it was only being passed extremely grudgingly, and very few MPs would be able to sell it to their constituents with any enthusiasm. That would mean that when the public realises what a miserable deal it is resentment would grow and we'd be back in a situation similar to what we have now: the Brexit ultras demanding a much harder/no deal Brexit, and remainers arguing for a softer Brexit or a new referendum.

Of course it may be that May doesn't manage to get a third vote on the WA (she certainly shouldn't be allowed to, given the thumping majorities against it in the the first and second votes). Perhaps the Commons will find a way to wrest control of the process from her, in which case all bets are off.

[vandermolen]

The first time I was eligible to vote was the 1975 referendum to decide if we should leave the EEC (EU). There was no vote to see if people wanted to join as the then Prime Minister, Edward Heath, simply took us in. Out of loyalty to the Commonwealth I voted to leave the EEC (EU) but the majority voted to stay in which, of course, I accepted. Therefore, any subsequent referendum, including the one of 2016, ignores the 'democratic wishes of the British people' which we have heard so much about from the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg.

[Mr. Minnow]

It looks as though "third time lucky" is indeed May's "strategy". But there is apparently a section of Erskine May which allows the Speaker to stop the government repeatedly submitting the same motion until it gets the answer it wants. It's usually not needed because governments don't normally do it, but it could be applied in this case.

https://news.sky.com/story/an-ancient-rule-means-bercow-could-take-drastic-action-on-brexit-11664555

I doubt Bercow will do it, but I hope he does. May is effectively trying to blackmail MPs into voting her deal through, which must surely rank as an abuse of parliament. If Bercow doesn't use this rule the only possible alternative to a third vote on May's deal is the Commons wresting control from her. That's possible, but by no means certain.

The first time I was eligible to vote was the 1975 referendum to decide if we should leave the EEC (EU). There was no vote to see if people wanted to join as the then Prime Minister, Edward Heath, simply took us in. Out of loyalty to the Commonwealth I voted to leave the EEC (EU) but the majority voted to stay in which, of course, I accepted. Therefore, any subsequent referendum, including the one of 2016, ignores the 'democratic wishes of the British people' which we have heard so much about from the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg.

A few months ago BBC Parliament showed a debate between Tony Benn and Roy Jenkins during the 1975 referendum campaign. From the bit I saw, the quality of the debate, in terms of both tone and content, was light years removed from the drivel we got three years ago and have had ever since. Had those standards been maintained I've no doubt someone like Farage would have been exposed as the opportunistic gobshite he is. Ditto Johnson, Gove, Rees-Mogg etc..

[Marc]

It looks as though "third time lucky" is indeed May's "strategy". But there is apparently a section of Erskine May which allows the Speaker to stop the government repeatedly submitting the same motion until it gets the answer it wants. It's usually not needed because governments don't normally do it, but it could be applied in this case.

https://news.sky.com/story/an-ancient-rule-means-bercow-could-take-drastic-action-on-brexit-11664555

I doubt Bercow will do it, but I hope he does. May is effectively trying to blackmail MPs into voting her deal through, which must surely rank as an abuse of parliament. If Bercow doesn't use this rule the only possible alternative to a third vote on May's deal is the Commons wresting control from her. That's possible, but by no means certain.

A few months ago BBC Parliament showed a debate between Tony Benn and Roy Jenkins during the 1975 referendum campaign. From the bit I saw, the quality of the debate, in terms of both tone and content, was light years removed from the drivel we got three years ago and have had ever since. Had those standards been maintained I've no doubt someone like Farage would have been exposed as the opportunistic gobshite he is. Ditto Johnson, Gove, Rees-Mogg etc..

With Farage we just got what we expected, but I also saw and heard Gove and Johnson 'in action' on the BBC during those 2016 days, reacting to loads of well informed people with serious concerns, and they just mocked them, whilst grinning and laughing, and shaking their heads in an arrogant and patronizing way. It was a shameful thing to watch.
Right now I just keep my fingers crossed that EU diplomats and politicians will be/remain sensible and responsible, and avoid reactionary and 'Schadenfreude' behaviour as much as possible. Despite the Theatre of Absurdity, this Brexit 'thing' is an extremely serious matter.

[Mr. Minnow]

With Farage we just got what we expected, but I also saw and heard Gove and Johnson 'in action' on the BBC during those 2016 days, reacting to loads of well informed people with serious concerns, and they just mocked them, whilst grinning and laughing, and shaking their heads in an arrogant and patronizing way. It was a shameful thing to watch.

And despite the fact that the Leave campaign's rhetoric has turned to dust on contact with reality, millions of Brits are apparently still convinced that Brexit is going to be great, with any objections dismissed by a cry of "justgerronwivvit!".  It's so depressing to watch. May will probably squeak home on Tuesday, despite the fact that repeatedly submitting the same motion when it's already been rejected is against parliamentary rules because it's so blatantly undemocratic, and it will be hailed by the rightwing press as a triumph.

Right now I just keep my fingers crossed that EU diplomats and politicians will be/remain sensible and responsible, and avoid reactionary and 'Schadenfreude' behaviour as much as possible. Despite the Theatre of Absurdity, this Brexit 'thing' is an extremely serious matter.

I think the rest of the EU just wants us gone now. There was genuine sadness in the period immediately following the referendum, but I get the distinct impression now that they've had enough. Their patience over the last two and a half years when confronted by the behaviour of the government, the belligerence and sense of entitlement of the Brexiters and the utter shambles in parliament has been remarkable, but there's been a noticeable change of tone in the last week or two. I think that patience has finally run out. 

Brexit may not have created the divisions in British society, but it has provided a focus around which to amplify them. The country which has been laid bare by this process is one disfigured by deep-rooted problems which were created in Westminster but for which the EU has proved to be a convenient scapegoat. Those problems won't be solved by leaving the EU, if anything they will be exacerbated, and that's not going to be pretty. When leave voters realise they aren't going to get what the Brexiters told them they'd get they'll be angry. Instead of blaming themselves they'll probably blame the EU and Remainers. The latter willl in turn be angry at the fact that so many warnings went unheeded by the leading Brexiters and leave voters. I cannot see a way this ends at all well.   

[vandermolen]

And despite the fact that the Leave campaign's rhetoric has turned to dust on contact with reality, millions of Brits are apparently still convinced that Brexit is going to be great, with any objections dismissed by a cry of "justgerronwivvit!".  It's so depressing to watch. May will probably squeak home on Tuesday, despite the fact that repeatedly submitting the same motion when it's already been rejected is against parliamentary rules because it's so blatantly undemocratic, and it will be hailed by the rightwing press as a triumph.


I think the rest of the EU just wants us gone now. There was genuine sadness in the period immediately following the referendum, but I get the distinct impression now that they've had enough. Their patience over the last two and a half years when confronted by the behaviour of the government, the belligerence and sense of entitlement of the Brexiters and the utter shambles in parliament has been remarkable, but there's been a noticeable change of tone in the last week or two. I think that patience has finally run out. 

Brexit may not have created the divisions in British society, but it has provided a focus around which to amplify them. The country which has been laid bare by this process is one disfigured by deep-rooted problems which were created in Westminster but for which the EU has proved to be a convenient scapegoat. Those problems won't be solved by leaving the EU, if anything they will be exacerbated, and that's not going to be pretty. When leave voters realise they aren't going to get what the Brexiters told them they'd get they'll be angry. Instead of blaming themselves they'll probably blame the EU and Remainers. The latter willl in turn be angry at the fact that so many warnings went unheeded by the leading Brexiters and leave voters. I cannot see a way this ends at all well.

Depressing that the 'shooter' in New Zealand claims to have been, to some extent, inspired by Brexit and Trump.

[Ghost of Baron Scarpia]

Depressing that the 'shooter' in New Zealand claims to have been, to some extent, inspired by Brexit and Trump.

And depressing that on one day Trump makes veiled threats that his supporters might 'get rough,' and the next day, after one of his apparent supporters murdered 49 people, he says he doesn't see white nationalism as a rising threat.

Chin up, friends in ol' blighty, your leaders may be craven, duplicitous imbeciles, but next to Trump, they are Pericles, Aristotle, Socrates...

[Mr. Minnow]

Depressing that the 'shooter' in New Zealand claims to have been, to some extent, inspired by Brexit and Trump.

Depressing yes, but not surprising - remember what Jo Cox's murderer shouted as he killed her. And yet, the toxic rhetoric in our "glorious" press continues unabated - betrayal, traitors, saboteurs, enemies of the people, etc..

We really are in an extraordinary situation. The Electoral Commission ruled that the leave campaign broke electoral law. That alone ought to have set alarm bells ringing about the integrity of the result. Throw in the evidence of Russian interference in the campaign and the use of micro-targeted political ads online, which circumvented the rules that are supposed to apply to political advertising, and there is more than enough reason to conclude that the 2016 vote was tainted - but the result is still allowed to stand. If Brexit happens, a highly dangerous precedent will be set: it will show that a democratic vote can be corrupted with virtual impunity.

And depressing that on one day Trump makes veiled threats that his supporters might 'get rough,' and the next day, after one of his apparent supporters murdered 49 people, he says he doesn't see white nationalism as a rising threat.

It would appear that Trump's reaction to mass shootings is determined by the skin colour of the killer. White killer = mental illness problem, nothing to do with guns or far right nationalist ideology, mustn't politicise the issue. Dark skinned killer = rising Islamist terrorist threat, shows need for Trump's policies such as the travel ban, etc..

Chin up, friends in ol' blighty, your leaders may be craven, duplicitous imbeciles, but next to Trump, they are Pericles, Aristotle, Socrates...

The difference is that while Trump is a moral cesspit on legs, at least you have a chance to vote him out. And even if, god forbid, he lasts the full eight years, he'll be gone after that. Unravelling the shitshow of Brexit is going to be a hell of a lot more difficult. Assuming Brexit happens, the effects may well be felt for generations.

[Holden]

I contributed to this thread in 2017 after spending a couple of weeks in the UK shortly after Brexit was voted in. I got a chance to talk to people about it and the major issues for pro Brexiteers seemed to be threefold.

The first issue was the number of Europeans working in the UK and supposedly taking jobs that could have gone to UK residents. The second was the pressure on the NHS (which you might be surprised to hear, is highly regarded overseas). The third was that propping up weak economies from member states (I believe Greece and Spain were quoted) would subsequently weaken the British economy.

In four weeks time I will be returning to the UK (and Eire) and this will be after the March 29th deadline. In April 2017 the currency conversion rate was that 62 British pence equaled one Australian dollar. At this point in time that is now 54 British pence so it appears to me that the Brexit situation hasn't harmed the economy at this point. It's a similar story for the USD but the change isn't dramatic.

I'm there for nearly eight weeks and it will be interesting to once again talk to the 'man/woman in the street' to see if anything has changed.

[Ghost of Baron Scarpia]

Of course it may be that May doesn't manage to get a third vote on the WA (she certainly shouldn't be allowed to, given the thumping majorities against it in the the first and second votes). Perhaps the Commons will find a way to wrest control of the process from her, in which case all bets are off.

From what I read, this is the case. From the point of view of a spectator, anything but no-deal Brexit will be something of an anticlimax. 

[André]

De Gaulle once famously said "How can you govern a country with 258 varieties of cheese ? "

By which he meant that regionalisms and stubborness make it next to impossible to achieve national consensus. And, true to form, the French have written, rewritten and discarded 5 different Constitutions since they cut off Louis XVI's head. It seems the British people is experiencing the same kind of political impasse. When given a choice, they say NO !! to what's on the table, but can't seem to be able to express what is it that they might agree to. And yet, there are less than 258 varieties of cheese to choose from.