Brexit

[Que]

Why Boris Johnson can't blame the media for the UK's fuel crisis (New Satesman)

I'm sure that panic buying made things worse, but it seems that there was (is) a real problem to begin with:

On Thursday 23 September, Hills produced the first of two reports from a Cabinet Office supply chain meeting on 16 September. First, he revealed that Tesco had informed the government that it had a shortage of 800 lorry drivers. The following day he covered the petrol angle, reporting that BP's head of UK retail, Hanna Hofer, warned the government that BP had "two thirds of normal forecourt stock levels required for smooth operations" and the level was "declining rapidly". She said BP was preparing to restrict deliveries "very soon" and that the situation was "bad, very bad".

So, if there is a real, structural problem in the fuel supply chain: how is this going to be fixed?
Is the British army going to run petrol trucks for an indefinite period of time?

[Mandryka]

Why Boris Johnson can't blame the media for the UK's fuel crisis (New Satesman)

I'm sure that panic buying made things worse, but it seems that there was (is) a real problem to begin with:

So, if there is a real, structural problem in the fuel supply chain: how is this going to be fixed?
Is the British army going to run petrol trucks for an indefinite period of time?

Thanks for this article que.

[Mandryka]

Why Boris Johnson can't blame the media for the UK's fuel crisis (New Satesman)

I'm sure that panic buying made things worse, but it seems that there was (is) a real problem to begin with:

So, if there is a real, structural problem in the fuel supply chain: how is this going to be fixed?
Is the British army going to run petrol trucks for an indefinite period of time?

Here's the short term solution -- the let has been sent to all people with a licence to drive heavy trucks

[Iota]

Yes, I'm hoping there is light on the other side for all people in the UK. Hopefully, things will iron itself out and your country will get back on the right track. It'll take some time I'm sure, but if history is any indicator --- you Brits are a resilient people!

Much appreciate the spirit of your comment. 

Let's hope so, indeed.

The emotional/dogmatic nature of Brexit that Iota described, will however now form a big obstacle for any change of course. People tend to rationalise their (emotional) decisions after the fact and look for alternative explanations when things turn out badly, or just ignore negative consequences altogether.

History, in this case, might prove not to be so helpful.... Since it feeds a sense of exceptionalism and encourages an attitude of entrenchment.

All very true. I don't know if we're really different from many other countries in this regard, but being on home turf the effect is inevitably rather more visceral. There's no question though imo, that a post-imperialist mindset here certainly messes with things, and has had an egregious effect on any hopes of reasonable discussion during the Brexit saga.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Why Boris Johnson can't blame the media for the UK's fuel crisis (New Satesman)

I'm sure that panic buying made things worse, but it seems that there was (is) a real problem to begin with:

So, if there is a real, structural problem in the fuel supply chain: how is this going to be fixed?
Is the British army going to run petrol trucks for an indefinite period of time?

Wow!  Very interesting to read as I had thought that things were much better and that it wasn't a case of lack of petrol but "only" issues with panic buying.  I do realize that there has been a lack of drivers which the UK was trying hard to cut through visa requirements, etc. to get European drivers back.  It sounds now like there's a bigger issue regarding qualified petrol drivers than I had realized that those two issues alone were causing big problems, but if there is also a lack of supply....not certain exactly what "forecourt supplies" means.  Can anyone here explain what that means please?

It won't be easy, but I still believe that the UK will figure it out and sooner rather than later.   All the best wishes to you in the meantime.

PD

[MusicTurner]

According to the media here in DK, the UK governmental worst-case scenarios investigated in the "Operation Warhammer" report from 2019, originally secret, several of them have become reality - in the areas of fuel supply and prices, food and supermarket shortage, drinking water pollution because of cleansing means shortage, conflicts about fishing rights, problems in the service sector for the elderly, increased bureaucracy as regards EU trade.

The article below - in Danish - isn't mentioning any benefits from Brexit so far, though.
https://nyheder.tv2.dk/udland/2021-10-03-den-britiske-regering-lavede-et-worst-case-scenario-i-2019-paa-flere-punkter-er

[Que]

According to the media here in DK, the UK governmental worse-case scenarios investigated in the "Operation Warhammer" report from 2019, originally secret, several of them have become reality - in the areas of fuel supply and prices, food and supermarket shortage, drinking water pollution because of cleansing means shortage, conflicts about fishing rights, problems in the service sector for the elderly, increased bureaucracy as regards EU trade.

The article below - in Danish - isn't mentioning any benefits from Brexit so far, though.
https://nyheder.tv2.dk/udland/2021-10-03-den-britiske-regering-lavede-et-worst-case-scenario-i-2019-paa-flere-punkter-er

Those were the predictions for a "hard", no deal Brexit.
But the deal on which the UK left the EU was waverthin and was less than would have been necessary to sufficiently protect and secure the economy. The current circumstances (pandemic, energy crisis, global supply chain crisis) create unfortunately "the perfect storm" in which post-Brexit arrangements will be put to the test... and it doesn't look good...

[Que]

Here's the short term solution -- the let has been sent to all people with a licence to drive heavy trucks

A baroness who is in charge of "roads, busses and places".

We couldn't have made it up if we wanted to! 

I also notice the "fantastic opportunities" that are promised and the assurance that "conditions of employment and pay have been improving across the sector". The impression I get from other non-Uk news sources is that the Bulgarian and Romanian drivers that have been kicked out after having been exploited for years (which is not an exclusive UK phenomenon BTW) have no intention of returning:  too much economic insecurity,  a host country that cannot be trusted and, last but not least, a low GBP.

[Mandryka]

A baroness who is in charge of "roads, busses and places".

We couldn't have made it up if we wanted to! 

I also notice the "fantastic opportunities" that are promised and the assurance that "conditions of employment and pay have been improving across the sector". The impression I get from other non-Uk news sources is that the Bulgarian and Romanian drivers that have been kicked out after having been exploited for years (which is not an exclusive UK phenomenon BTW) have no intention of returning:  too much economic insecurity,  a host country that cannot be trusted and, last but not least, a low GBP.

I don't think things are very good in Romania. But more interestingly here's a government minister, Kwertang, talking about how structural change is necessary in the Uk as a result of Brexit. He thinks that the cause of the current crises is employers who refuse to raise wages and employ Brits.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2021/oct/01/business-confidence-falls-petrol-crisis-energy-fuel-pigs-butchers-stock-markets-business-live?page=with:block-6156f5e58f089420bc419cb6#block-6156f5e58f089420bc419cb6

Who would have thought that a conservative would be talking about the necessity for employers to pay employees more? What we're seeing is the Conservatives positioning themselves as the political party of the working British person. Levelling up is all part of this.

There are a lot of losers of global monetarism, hence Brexit. Boris's conservatives seem to have understood that better than any other political group.

[Que]

Nothing wrong with raising wages, but that should be done in times of economic growth.
But Bulgarian and Romanian drivers will indeed return if they are sufficiently compensated and offered water tight garantuees. But who is going to pay for that, and how do you sell this political U-turn on immigration?

Rising wages caused by widespread labour shortages will now only add to higher inflation, which will further slow down an economy that is already in dire straits:

UK business confidence collapses as fears of 'stagflation' grow

[Irons]

I don't think things are very good in Romania. But more interestingly here's a government minister, Kwertang, talking about how structural change is necessary in the Uk as a result of Brexit. He thinks that the cause of the current crises is employers who refuse to raise wages and employ Brits.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2021/oct/01/business-confidence-falls-petrol-crisis-energy-fuel-pigs-butchers-stock-markets-business-live?page=with:block-6156f5e58f089420bc419cb6#block-6156f5e58f089420bc419cb6

Who would have thought that a conservative would be talking about the necessity for employers to pay employees more? What we're seeing is the Conservatives positioning themselves as the political party of the working British person. Levelling up is all part of this.

There are a lot of losers of global monetarism, hence Brexit. Boris's conservatives seem to have understood that better than any other political group.

Sound comments, well made. My worry is that the increase in wages(good) will lead to inflation(bad). Although I often stick up for Boris here - someone has to do it! I can't get my head around that he has a long term plan that will cause lots of problems in the short term (leading up to an election) for the long term good.

[Irons]

Nothing wrong with raising wages, but that should be done in times of economic growth.
But Bulgarian and Romanian drivers will indeed return if they are sufficiently compensated and offered water tight garantuees. But who is going to pay for that, and how do you sell this political U-turn on immigration?

Rising wages caused by widespread labour shortages will now only add to higher inflation, which will further slow down an economy that is already in dire straits:

UK business confidence collapses as fears of 'stagflation' grow

Rome wasn't built in a day! The UK has relied on cheap foreign labour for generations, which has resulted in unemployment for the British working class. It is strange that not Labour but the Tories and their Brexit that have grasped this nettle which I believe will ultimately remove them from office.     

[Mandryka]

Rome wasn't built in a day! The UK has relied on cheap foreign labour for generations, which has resulted in unemployment for the British working class. It is strange that not Labour but the Tories and their Brexit that have grasped this nettle which I believe will ultimately remove them from office.   

By the way, the tories are not against low wages at all. All they are saying is that it is now necessary for some sectors to invest to satisfy demand - investment in human and/or other resources.

[Que]

[...]
But Bulgarian and Romanian drivers will indeed return if they are sufficiently compensated and offered water tight garantuees. But who is going to pay for that, and how do you sell this political U-turn on immigration?

Newsflash: Boris doesn't want the Bulgarian and Romanian drivers back.... or the butchers...

The UK is in a "post-Brexit transition"....  Indeed it is... if that is what you want to call an deliberate economic shell shock.

Boris Johnson: petrol crisis and pig cull part of necessary post-Brexit transition

Rome wasn't built in a day! The UK has relied on cheap foreign labour for generations, which has resulted in unemployment for the British working class.

It's not that simple. Would the British working class do those jobs for those wages? Would many of those jobs still exist if higher wages had to be paid? Does the British labour force contain sufficiently numbers of qualified staff in all economic sectors? Has the UK economy been modernised to be able to function without cheap labour?

Cheap imported labour solved several problems, and the causes of those problems are not fixed by kicking cheap labour out. QED.

[vandermolen]

We are told that the problem of petrol shortages here in the South East is 'stabilising'. This is completely untrue as far as I can tell with many garages still being completely out of petrol causing great anxiety to those who need to drive to work. I agree with Melvyn Bragg (whom normally I don't have much time for) when he writes in the Times today that 'we [in the UK] are... in a terrible mess, one basically caused by David Cameron and Boris Johnson.' The suggestion, by various government ministers wheeled out for the TV cameras that the current crisis 'has nothing to do with Brexit' is frankly insulting to the intelligence of the population.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

We are told that the problem of petrol shortages here in the South East is 'stabilising'. This is completely untrue as far as I can tell with many garages still being completely out of petrol causing great anxiety to those who need to drive to work. I agree with Melvyn Bragg (whom normally I don't have much time for) when he writes in the Times today that 'we [in the UK] are... in a terrible mess, one basically caused by David Cameron and Boris Johnson.' The suggestion, by various government ministers wheeled out for the TV cameras that the current crisis 'has nothing to do with Brexit' is frankly insulting to the intelligence of the population.

Hi Jeffrey,

I had read things earlier today that the British army was now helping to deliver supplies in the south of England (supposedly things were much better in other areas like northern England, Scotland and Wales).  Does it seem to be getting any better now?  And, from what I had heard, they were supposed to be starting to help as of Monday...

PD

[The new erato]

I read the news today, oh boy! The british army had just won the war.

[vandermolen]

Hi Jeffrey,

I had read things earlier today that the British army was now helping to deliver supplies in the south of England (supposedly things were much better in other areas like northern England, Scotland and Wales).  Does it seem to be getting any better now?  And, from what I had heard, they were supposed to be starting to help as of Monday...

PD

Hi PD,
Yes, the army are now driving the petrol tankers. I'll let you know later after I've driven by the local garages (petrol stations).

[vandermolen]

I read the news today, oh boy! The british army had just won the war.

Haha - very nice Odd 

[Mandryka]

I can't get my head around that he has a long term plan that will cause lots of problems in the short term (leading up to an election) for the long term good.

Yes I agree with this but he's no fool. He may be bad, he may be a corrupt, but he's not a fool. My guess is that he wants to show industries which are reluctant to change that he means business, that's what's going on right now. There will be temporary visas etc. once they've got the message.


There's another side of things. Covid has shown that you can make the people suffer and stay popular . I don't think a penury of turkeys and trees this Christmas will do him harm, he'll blame the truck drivers and he'll get away with it in the press, and the British like pain - as long as house prices are high Tory voters feel secure.