Hurricane Irma - the final blow to Texas? [closed-see new thread]

[amw]

Irma is a Category 5 again. The eye is contracting (now 35-40 miles) and central pressure has risen to 930 mbar, which could be a sign of weakening due to interaction with the Cuban mainland. However, the subtropical ridge has lifted and Irma is starting to make the long-forecast northwest turn which will bring it back into warmer waters and towards Florida. So, probably not going to spend enough time over Cuba to weaken significantly.

The first rain and wind bands are hitting South Florida now with 50 mph wind gusts, as anyone still there who hasn't evacuated is probably well aware of by now. Probably stay inside. >.>

[Senta]

Just saw this thing made it back to Cat 5 and thought I'd stop by and check in here on our FL members! (Why hasn't the title been changed though? It's definitely not TX with the bullseye this time!)

Y'all are on my mind heavily right now - I will be hoping and praying for the best of all possible outcomes for you, your family, and your homes.

I know all too well exactly what this feels like.

The eye of Rita passed over my parents' house and I remember so clearly us moving everything of consequence up to the 2nd floor, boarding up, loading up what we really wanted in the car, and then driving away not knowing if anything would be there when we got back.

Literally the worst, saddest, most helpless feeling in the world.

And then the next day sitting in a Ruby Tuesday's in Shreveport watching Geraldo Rivera getting blown away around the corner from where we lived, surreal - ugh!

Luckily we just came back to a bunch of shingles gone, one corner of a room with a little leak/insulation falling, and a downed fence. After confirmed 145 mph gusts and 125 sustained wind in the neighborhood.

Hurricane code is a real (and effective) thing on the Gulf Coast, and especially in Florida.

Ask my parents and they will tell you any day they will take a few Ritas before a Harvey (they got 4 inches of water last week and that will be a 2 month long or more cleanup/repair process for them, flood/water damage is many orders of magnitude more awful than pure wind damage IMHO).

That said, Irma is a witch, certainly any low-lying areas on the coast for sure may get real with storm surge, other places - it can all depend on luck sometimes with the wind and exactly which bands cross your path.

I do hope all of you are getting out indeed though. I sure was glad we did every time!! Having a sleepable bed, hot food, power, and AC will really help lower your stress level afterward so you can focus on dealing with FEMA/insurance/recovery. Rita and Ike were each 2 weeks without power for our area due to the sheer amount of trees/major lines down, miserable for those who stayed. My brother stayed in a sturdy building with some friends during Rita so they could help others after, but they ended up having to chainsaw themselves out for hours the next day first. The whole area in general was just totally nonfunctional and shut down.

I'm sad though that I don't have like, a souvenir shirt or something that says "I survived the Hurricane Rita/Ike evacuation!" Both were memorable and fairly horrible affairs, involving no less than 12-15 hrs. in the car to travel a 3 hr. distance, peppered with pit stops in the middle of the night to rural convenience store restrooms that had seen about 100x their usual traffic. But, driving a highway in contraflow is pretty fun. And in the end, it was definitely worth it since it was a direct hit for us.

Please update us when you can, whether you go or stay etc! I will keep checking in and hoping for the best for all of you!

[amw]

Cuba appears to have softened Irma up more significantly than expected: wind speed is down to 130 mph and pressure up to 937 mbar. As of 25 minutes ago, the eye was back over water, but I guess that's finally some good news for Florida.

It will certainly undergo another intensification once it crosses the strait towards Florida, but chances are it wouldn't intensify all the way back to a Category 5. Forecast seems to be for a strong Category 4 landfall at about 150mph on the Keys sometime tomorrow, by which time there will hopefully be no one left except the NWS Key West team in their hurricane-proof bunker of a weather station, followed by a trip up the coast towards Cape Coral/Fort Myers. Miami area seems likely to be spared the worst storm surge and heaviest winds, but still with plenty of flooding from rain.