Hurricane Irma - the final blow to Texas? [closed-see new thread]

[mc ukrneal]

It's still too early for an accurate forecast of the track, but a little while ago the 'middle' prediction was Cuba and then into the Gulf . . . aackk!   

What I read seemed to indicate the Gulf being a 'less likely' track. It has to do with the High in the middle of the Atlantic and the Gulf Stream. Still. Wednesday seems to be the day where they think they will have a better read. But it's a hurricane, and anything is still possible.

[Gurn Blanston]

Never mind John. He's inland.  I'm 12 miles inland from the Florida coast!

So, Jeffrey, are you on the road yet, or in denial? Let us know when you get to Iowa... don't know anyone in Iowa? Well, you oughtta...

Seriously, amigo, it's go-time.

[Spineur]

Irma intensifies to an 'extremely dangerous' Category 5 hurricane on its track toward the U.S.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/04/its-becoming-more-likely-hurricane-irma-will-at-least-affect-u-s-if-not-make-landfall/

Not too good, because it still can grow more.

[mc ukrneal]

So, Jeffrey, are you on the road yet, or in denial? Let us know when you get to Iowa... don't know anyone in Iowa? Well, you oughtta...

Seriously, amigo, it's go-time.

12 or 2 miles - it's all the same in south Florida - flat. But now with cat 5 winds....yikes! Those islands are going to get ripped apart.

[amw]

Irma intensifies to an 'extremely dangerous' Category 5 hurricane on its track toward the U.S.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/04/its-becoming-more-likely-hurricane-irma-will-at-least-affect-u-s-if-not-make-landfall/

Not too good, because it still can grow more.

It's predicted to undergo another eyewall replacement cycle, which will almost certainly result in the wind field growing but generally reduces the overall wind speed. Of course then if it's over deep warm water (which it is) it could re-intensify back to a larger and more damaging Category 5. Hopefully it doesn't turn into Rita 2.0.

[Brian]

This is not the right time for a major storm to hit Puerto Rico. That poor island has enough to worry about.

[amw]

I actually haven't seen the NOAA describe a Category 5 hurricane as "extremely dangerous" since... uh.... Ike in 2008. Which killed 200 people, and it curved away from Puerto Rico in time to avoid serious loss of life there. Harvey's done some serious property damage, but only 66 confirmed deaths so far (and another 30-40 missing). Safe to say this is pretty bad news.

edit: oh and hey, another tropical wave coming off Cape Verde just got upgraded to Tropical Storm José. 

edit 2: and shit. Irma now "potentially catastrophic". Only one other hurricane in my lifetime got that description.

[Karl Henning]

Florida has already declared a state of emergency.

[Brian]

Ike in 2008. Which killed 200 people,

That's my first hurricane. I stayed for Ike and fled Harvey.

[Gurn Blanston]

That's my first hurricane. I stayed for Ike and fled Harvey.

Ike kicked our asses even way up here in Nacogdoches. We lost the roof of our house and many trees. I had to take the chainsaw and tractor and spend 2 days cutting up trees fallen across the driveway and drag them off. It wasn't pretty.

[kishnevi]

So, Jeffrey, are you on the road yet, or in denial? Let us know when you get to Iowa... don't know anyone in Iowa? Well, you oughtta...

Seriously, amigo, it's go-time.

The likely track is somewhere south to north through Florida,  which means if I evacuated I would just get caught on the road somewhere.   It's actually safer to hunker down here. Panic buying has set in with lines for gas, etc. But I have almost everything I need to tide me over for a few days at least. The exception is water, and that I can start to boil for myself over the next few days. The Publix water I use is really just filtered tap water, so it's not a real difference.

I expect to have no cellphone or wireless service after the storm, so if I seem to disappear don't be too alarmed:  I will just be offline.

[Brian]

The likely track is somewhere south to north through Florida,  which means if I evacuated I would just get caught on the road somewhere.   It's actually safer to hunker down here. Panic buying has set in with lines for gas, etc. But I have almost everything I need to tide me over for a few days at least. The exception is water, and that I can start to boil for myself over the next few days. The Publix water I use is really just filtered tap water, so it's not a real difference.

I expect to have no cellphone or wireless service after the storm, so if I seem to disappear don't be too alarmed:  I will just be offline.

Careful. My friends in Houston expected to need enough supplies for 3-4 days and ultimately needed more than that. The power was out for only 48 hours or so for most of them, but they were lucky...

Ike kicked our asses even way up here in Nacogdoches. We lost the roof of our house and many trees. I had to take the chainsaw and tractor and spend 2 days cutting up trees fallen across the driveway and drag them off. It wasn't pretty.

Wow, had no idea your Ike was that bad. We didn't have much damage at all.

[kishnevi]

Careful. My friends in Houston expected to need enough supplies for 3-4 days and ultimately needed more than that. The power was out for only 48 hours or so for most of them, but they were lucky...

Wow, had no idea your Ike was that bad. We didn't have much damage at all.

With us low scale flooding is possible, but mostly nearer the coast. It's wind damage and electric power outages that will be the issue. Wilma (which was a cat 1 when it passed near me) was the worst I have been through yet. That left my neighborhood with no power for a week. I was lucky, since some people had to wait over a month.

[Scion7]

It's a cat-5 now, and has the strongest winds recorded for an Atlantic storm.

The latest projected path, courtesy of the SNWTC:

[Brian]

Who drew on that red arrow? Literally none of the forecast models are showing that possibility.

Here are the models:
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/tropical-storm-irma

Click "computer models" and "ensemble models" ... consensus is a strike on Bahamas, Cuba, and south Florida, but with some chance of a strike as far north as South Carolina.

[Scion7]

Sorry, but the SNWTC trumps all other forecasting models.   

[Gurn Blanston]

The likely track is somewhere south to north through Florida,  which means if I evacuated I would just get caught on the road somewhere.   It's actually safer to hunker down here. Panic buying has set in with lines for gas, etc. But I have almost everything I need to tide me over for a few days at least. The exception is water, and that I can start to boil for myself over the next few days. The Publix water I use is really just filtered tap water, so it's not a real difference.

I expect to have no cellphone or wireless service after the storm, so if I seem to disappear don't be too alarmed:  I will just be offline.

And Florida is, what, 100 miles wide? And the storm is, what 175 miles wide?  Hmmm,

If the storm was to hit on Saturday as they are now predicting, and you left Wednesday. I used to go from Tampa to Nacogdoches in 19 hours flat. Even when we were outrunning Ike in '06, once we made it past Mobile AL it was smooth sailing.

Won't presume to tell you what to do (not to say I wouldn't do what you are doing), but as a professional risk assessor I have to say, you are pushing the boundaries. Best of luck to you, sending you the best vibes I have.

[kishnevi]

Who drew on that red arrow? Literally none of the forecast models are showing that possibility.

Here are the models:
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/tropical-storm-irma

Click "computer models" and "ensemble models" ... consensus is a strike on Bahamas, Cuba, and south Florida, but with some chance of a strike as far north as South Carolina.

The Weather Channel graphics  showing the areas which may affected by tropical storm force winds don't say it overtly but imply that the storm will pass through South Florida  and then into the Gulf on a path that aims at the stretch from Louisiana to Alabama.

[Gurn Blanston]

Careful. My friends in Houston expected to need enough supplies for 3-4 days and ultimately needed more than that. The power was out for only 48 hours or so for most of them, but they were lucky...

Wow, had no idea your Ike was that bad. We didn't have much damage at all.

We were standing looking out the back door and suddenly I told my wife "look, shingles landing in the yard, some poor bastard is losing their roof". Then I remembered, we don't have any neighbors....    Rita was as bad (in 2005). The eye passed on the other side of us and the wind blew from the opposite direction. Took care of the trees on the other side of the driveway (which is 450 feet long).  One cool thing in Ike, I was watching a power pole out the front window that was swaying like crazy, then it just snapped off at ground level. It flapped in the wind for 2-3 hours before the wires finally broke and it all came down.  Nice day to have a generator.

[Gurn Blanston]

The Weather Channel graphics  showing the areas which may affected by tropical storm force winds don't say it overtly but imply that the storm will pass through South Florida  and then into the Gulf on a path that aims at the stretch from Louisiana to Alabama.

I haven't seen a single projection that shows it further west than Apalachicola.  That would be the worst case, where it didn't make landfall all the way up the west coast and the coast was on the 'dirty side'. I seem to remember one doing that a few years ago...