Pray for Florida - Irma barrels down

[kishnevi]

BTW found this to illustrate the overall size of Irma

The red area can be thought of as the area experiencing sustained tropical winds. The strongest winds are only in the immediate center.  So Prague would be wallopped, while Berlin, Warsaw and Budapest would be feeling severe thunderstorms.

[amw]

Outer bands are generating increasing number of tornadoes across the NE quadrant of the hurricane.... which at the moment means Miami, Ft Lauderdale, Palm Beach. As the storm moves north expect more tornado warnings for the central part of the state.

Pressure down to 932 and wind speeds up to 125 from 120. Strengthening trend fairly clear now, but luckily wind speed hasn't ramped up too much (yet).

[amw]

Also, if you're in need of some way to let off frustration at the approach of this hurricane, I would recommend not doing it this way.

[Ken B]

Also, if you're in need of some way to let off frustration at the approach of this hurricane, I would recommend not doing it this way.

A new meme is born!

[Scion7]

My relatives all evacuated, thankfully.
However, I have two sets of couple-friends in the panhandle that are riding it out.
I am no longer getting any email or phone call connections to them at this time.
Sort of surprised that service is out already - or, it could be overload.

[kishnevi]

My relatives all evacuated, thankfully.
However, I have two sets of couple-friends in the panhandle that are riding it out.
I am no longer getting any email or phone call connections to them at this time.
Sort of surprised that service is out already - or, it could be overload.

The panhandle is relatively safe by current projections, so probably overload from all those people who evacuated northward.
Where do your relatives live. (PM is fine if you don't want to publicize it, or if you think its none of my business.)  I live in one of the cities outside Fort Lauderdale. Draw a line inland from the beach along the 26th parallel for about 12 miles, jog North about a mile, and you're at my house.

[Scion7]

I had several sets of cousins down there - Orlando, Tampa ...
Friends are in Greenville.
Server overload on email shouldn't be due to evacuees.   

[kishnevi]

I had several sets of cousins down there - Orlando, Tampa ...
Friends are in Greenville.
Server overload on email shouldn't be due to evacuees.   

Now you say that...your friends are probably in the direct line of impact. 
But the storm won't effect them until late Monday, possibly later.

[Scion7]

If it takes the center/left track, the water will feed it making Florida a Jurassic swamp.
     

[kishnevi]

If it takes the center/left track, the water will feed it making Florida a Jurassic swamp.
     

Not really  The swampy part is outside that cone.
OTOH Greenville is very close to the point where that central line crosses the Florida Georgia border.

[amw]

INIT  10/0300Z 23.5N  81.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
12H  10/1200Z 24.7N  81.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
24H  11/0000Z 26.8N  82.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  11/1200Z 29.5N  83.4W   80 KT  90 MPH...ON THE COAST
48H  12/0000Z 32.2N  85.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
72H  13/0000Z 35.3N  89.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H  14/0000Z 37.0N  88.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Significantly better forecast than yesterday: they now don't think Irma will have the time to strengthen significantly before reaching Florida. Still undergoing eyewall replacement cycle and wind shear is (finally!) projected to pick up tomorrow and weaken it further.

Major threats are now storm surge (from Homestead to Tampa Bay) and rainfall (which has increased to projected maximums of 25 inches in some places) rather than wind.

[Scion7]

Jeffrey, if the eye stays over water, then the storm will be fed and stay relatively strong, and the rain it will drop on Florida will be correspondingly high.
That's not good.

[kishnevi]

Jeffrey, if the eye stays over water, then the storm will be fed and stay relatively strong, and the rain it will drop on Florida will be correspondingly high.
That's not good.

It's more a wind thing than a rain thing...but my point was that the center is now likely to miss the swamp part of Florida, where I live.  North and Central Florida is more limestone based.  Absorbing the rain takes a different pattern there.

[Scion7]

MY point was that the tremendous rainfall will turn Florida into a Jurassic swamp . . .



(inaccurate saurapod depiction exempted)

[Mirror Image]

Current projected path for Irma:

[amw]

A new meme is born!

The local police department apparently had to make the following clarification that firing a bullet at a hurricane will not, in fact, cause it to reconsider and go away.

[Mirror Image]

The local police department apparently had to make the following clarification that firing a bullet at a hurricane will not, in fact, cause it to reconsider and go away.

I guess the whole idea of taking shelter is an afterthought to some people.

[Scion7]

I think the human gene pool might benefit from those types staying out in the wind . . . 

[Ken B]

So my parent's place is the second oldest condo in Naples. Early this year they had the shutters upgraded. Due to a screw up that ended up in court the contractor used the wrong grade hurricane shutters. He used one rated for the Keys -- a much higher grade! So that might turn out to have been a very lucky mistake. However their unit is ground floor, and the condo property is on the beach, so I think it will flood. Happily it is sitting empty right now.

[Scion7]

It's a Cat 4 as of 5 a.m.