And They're Off! The Democratic Candidates for 2020

[71 dB]

Actual voters voting is not "rigging an election"  It is the election.

If 1040 people vote for candidate A, and 960 people vote for candidate B, but the given result is 980 for A and 1020 for B it is a rigged election.

[Karl Henning]

If 1040 people vote for candidate A, and 960 people vote for candidate B, but the given result is 980 for A and 1020 for B it is a rigged election.

So where are the "facts" that this is what happened on Tuesday, 3 March?  Or don't you consider that you are mistaking tendentious speculation for fact?

[Karl Henning]

Michigan Might Not Be As Sanders-Friendly This Time

[Karl Henning]

"geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): Sanders has to have a better-than-expected performance today because the rest of March isn't great for him. Not only is March 17 bad, as Nathaniel pointed out, but then Georgia — a state Biden is expected to win handily — is the only state voting on March 24.

sarahf: Yeah, of the states up today, Michigan is just so crucial for Sanders, as it's the biggest delegate haul on the calendar, but things don't look good for him. He now has a 2 percent chance of winning, according to our forecast."

[71 dB]

So where are the "facts" that this is what happened on Tuesday, 3 March?  Or don't you consider that you are mistaking tendentious speculation for fact?

It's hard to have the facts when the process has been made less transparent using whatever apps etc. instead of paper ballots. Exit polls is one way to monitor the elections, but there are less exit polls now. Mistakes are mistakes, but isn't it curious those mistakes hardly ever benefit Bernie?

Anyway, if you trust American elections that's good. I don't. To me American "democracy" is a joke. I was naive to think Bernie can bring change. The 1 % don't allow that no matter how much 99 % wants it. It looks like Trump gets his second term. I am turning my back on American politics now and instead concentrate on things closer to me. This has been an insanely frustrating process to watch and in the future I better choose doing things less frustrating. Ignorance is bliss. I wish I could go back in time 4 years to the times when I thought only Republicans are bad and the US had democracy. I was happier and more balanced person back then. Knowledge is destroying me.

[Florestan]

What the media missed about Joe Biden's electability
Political devotees don't like Joe Biden, but voters do. And there's a reason for that

From the above:

Democrats are not, in my view, playing it safe. The field has winnowed down to a 77-year-old icon of the Democratic establishment who has trouble expressing himself and a 78-year-old democratic socialist who just had a heart attack. And both of them are crisscrossing the country holding public events amid the outbreak of a virus that's particularly dangerous for older Americans.

Hah! Just imagine the unthinkable. 

[71 dB]

I will follow this election to the end, but I don't care about the outcome. I have to stop caring.  I wish all Americans had healthcare and for some time it has been almost possible as the popularity of medicare for all has rised thanks to people getting information elsewhere, not only on MSM. However, seeing what happened in Super Tuesday. How the establishment came together against Bernie it's clear Americans will never have the things people have in other countries. It's possible every president from now on will be a Republican, because the right is united while the Dems have a civil war between the moderates and the progressives. The establishment won't allow a real progressive canditate so the candidates will be moderate and that means the turnout will be low and Republicans win. Soon the supreme court will have only conservative judges and the US can become a fundamental Christian country. Bye bye freedom...

[Karl Henning]

It's hard to have the facts when the process has been made less transparent using whatever apps etc. instead of paper ballots.

So, you're letting your feelings (and frustration) serve you instead of facts.  Did you read the piece which André provided, on the unreliability of exit polls?

I was naive to think Bernie can bring change.

In brief, I agree, though not for your Kulinski-pickled reasons.

I am turning my back on American politics now and instead concentrate on things closer to me.

This is one of the most ensible things I have ever read you to post.

[Florestan]

This is one of the most ensible things I have ever read you to post.

Don't hold your breath, though.

[71 dB]

So, you're letting your feelings (and frustration) serve you instead of facts.  Did you read the piece which André provided, on the unreliability of exit polls?

Yes. It's a tiresome article. It talks about polls, not exit polls. Polls are polls and they are what they are because turnout matters. Exit polls are more reliable, because it's about people who did show up and vote. Exit polls should match well with the results. The typical margin of error is about 4 %. Now we have errors of 8 % which is suspicious.

Also, whether Bernie is weaker of stronger candidate than in 2016 is irrelevant in this.

[drogulus]

I will follow this election to the end, but I don't care about the outcome. I have to stop caring.  I wish all Americans had healthcare and for some time it has been almost possible as the popularity of medicare for all has rised thanks to people getting information elsewhere, not only on MSM.

    The popularity of MFA and variants of it is largely despite liberal/conservative efforts to portray it as radical in a way that's independent of who thinks it would be a good idea, like people who have no disposition to see themselves as radical at all. Many people are aware that universal care backstopped by the government some way or another must happen. At what point does the dollar cost of a rotting private system begin to exceed the cost of an expansion program to replace it?

     Creeping socialism isn't killing off the private health care lottery system. The "winners" hate it almost as much as the losers.

[JBS]

Yes. It's a tiresome article. It talks about polls, not exit polls. Polls are polls and they are what they are because turnout matters. Exit polls are more reliable, because it's about people who did show up and vote. Exit polls should match well with the results. The typical margin of error is about 4 %. Now we have errors of 8 % which is suspicious.

Also, whether Bernie is weaker of stronger candidate than in 2016 is irrelevant in this.

Polls are not reliable because they take a very small size and try to extrapolate from that to the general population.  That's why people aggregate polls. A series of polls taken over time enlarges the sample size. And even then its reliability is limited to how the pollsters weight the samples to account for demographics.

Exit polls by their nature can't be aggregated. Nor can they be checked to see if they are properly weighted. In fact, if the error was greater than expected, that shows the pollsters' assumptions about demographics were wrong.  It's not the official vote total that is suspect, it's the polls.

[Karl Henning]

Also, whether Bernie is weaker of stronger candidate than in 2016 is irrelevant in this.

You are mistaken, so this quip is irrelevant.

[Florestan]

Polls are not reliable because they take a very small size and try to extrapolate from that to the general population.  That's why people aggregate polls. A series of polls taken over time enlarges the sample size. And even then its reliability is limited to how the pollsters weight the samples to account for demographics.

Exit polls by their nature can't be aggregated. Nor can they be checked to see if they are properly weighted. In fact, if the error was greater than expected, that shows the pollsters' assumptions about demographics were wrong.  It's not the official vote total that is suspect, it's the polls.

Of course. Exit polls are notoriously less reliable than polls.

[Karl Henning]

Don't hold your breath, though.

Right, at irregular intervals he says the right thing, but doesn't pay any attention, himself.

[Karl Henning]

Of course. Exit polls are notoriously less reliable than polls.

Seems it's no use getting that through the concrete.

[André]

Yes. It's a tiresome article. It talks about polls, not exit polls. Polls are polls and they are what they are because turnout matters. Exit polls are more reliable, because it's about people who did show up and vote. Exit polls should match well with the results. The typical margin of error is about 4 %. Now we have errors of 8 % which is suspicious.

Also, whether Bernie is weaker of stronger candidate than in 2016 is irrelevant in this.

So tiresome that you didn't bother reading it past the first sentence. It IS about exit polls. But you have better things to do than reading longish articles, I guess.

An exit poll is unreliable by definition. News networks rush to the polls for the first 30 minutes only and it's back to the studio for first reports. Once real results trickle in they become useless. Forget about late voters or mail in voting - too boring. But they count too...

[Karl Henning]

So tiresome that you didn't bother reading it past the first sentence. It IS about exit polls. But you have better things to do than reading longish articles, I guess.

An exit poll is unreliable by definition. News networks rush to the polls for the first 30 minutes only and it's back to the studio for first reports. Once real results trickle in they become useless. Forget about late voters or mail in voting - too boring. But they count too...

And any article which doesn't tell Poju what he wants to hear, is tiresome by definition.

[Florestan]

An exit poll is unreliable by definition. News networks rush to the polls for the first 30 minutes only and it's back to the studio for first reports. Once real results trickle in they become useless. Forget about late voters or mail in voting - too boring. But they count too...

That's plain common sense and real life experience. Both conspicuously missing in a specific case.

[Florestan]

And any article which doesn't tell Poju what he wants to hear, is tiresome by definition.

The TYT, the whole TYT and nothing but the TYT...