And They're Off! The Democratic Candidates for 2020

[Karl Henning]

Poju, all you seem to be capable of is blame, blame, blame. When things don't go your way you act like a 3 year old. Very trumpian.

True, but I doubt he'll ever see it.

[drogulus]

     Sanders has campaigned as though he had a hidden majority of prospective voters, then when confirmation arrived that his support was too narrow to form a majority coalition he decided to double down on the only strategy he has ever had. I wouldn't claim an effort to widen his appeal would have succeeded, only that not trying doomed his campaign.

     Biden has shown that he, not Sanders, can unite everyone opposed to Trump all across the spectrum. Spectrum wide appeal elects Presidents on the Dem side, as Carter, Clinton and Obama have shown.

    I voted for Warren knowing she was fading. I did it partly because of an archaic belief that voting for who you think best is not only to make her the winner but to make her more powerful later. She and Sanders can help Biden get Dem proposals enacted, something ordinary Dems have a hard time doing if they are not pushed. I voted for the push.

[Karl Henning]

Your vote for Warren was principled and just.

[Karl Henning]

     Sanders has campaigned as though he had a hidden majority of prospective voters, then when confirmation arrived that his support was too narrow to form a majority coalition he decided to double down on the only strategy he has ever had. I wouldn't claim an effort to widen his appeal would have succeeded, only that not trying doomed his campaign.

     Biden has shown that he, not Sanders, can unite everyone opposed to Trump all across the spectrum. Spectrum wide appeal elects Presidents on the Dem side, as Carter, Clinton and Obama have shown.

Good, sober sense. (Something rather lacking among the Sandersistas)

[71 dB]

You have two premises that most Americans don't share
--that rich people are bad people.  You seem to be disgusted that rich people even exist.
--that every problem can be solved by government control (either a direct program or by strict regulation)

Sorry, but you are strawmanning me. Let me clarify my premises for you:

-- I am NOT disgusted that rich people even exist. I am disgusted that they can buy elections and politicians so that the system is rigged for them and against everyone else. That's undermining democracy. I am totally fine with rich people existing as long as they pay their fair share of taxes, pay living wage to their workers and so on. So is Bernie and everyone else in the "social democracy" camp. You need to go to groups further left of us social democrats to find millionaire/billionaire haters. These people does exist, but they are to my knowledge a tiny "fringe" minority among the whole left of not much concern.

-- I DON'T think every problem can be solved by government control. Some of them can be, such as healthcare insurance. Note, that I have not advocated for public healthcare services. The US doesn't have to go full UK style NHS. France/Canada style public funding of private services is totally fine. Medicare for all is a government control of funding, insurance. Removal of the unnecessory "blood sucking" middle man between you and your doctor. That's it. Some regulations are good, so are bad. It's always about what the regulation is about. For example I'm sure you agree it's good if the government regulates the allowed amount of lead in tap water or how much industries can dump toxic waste to the nature. On the other hand regulation can for example stiffle innovation when it's a negative thing. The idea that regulation is always bad or good is extremely simplistic and dogmatic.

[71 dB]

1. You can stop whingeing anytime.

2. No miracle, just voter turnout, which, not coincidentally, is exactly where Bernie and progressives choked.

1. Sure, and you can stop reading my post anytime...

2. Turnout in the general is different from turnout in the primaries. Also, Biden has been benefitting from limited exposure to hide his cognitive decline. GOP/Trump make it so that this is not the case in the general. A lot of Biden supporters might be clueless now (because they don't follow politics and what they hear is corporate media propaganda), but by November they perhaps better educated about the problems of Biden from cognitive decline to his politicies which are NOT even close to as good as people seem to think. Black people support him because he was Obama's VP without realizing Obama picked him to get WHITE VOTE!! So ironic! 

[j winter]

     Sanders has campaigned as though he had a hidden majority of prospective voters, then when confirmation arrived that his support was too narrow to form a majority coalition he decided to double down on the only strategy he has ever had. I wouldn't claim an effort to widen his appeal would have succeeded, only that not trying doomed his campaign.

     Biden has shown that he, not Sanders, can unite everyone opposed to Trump all across the spectrum. Spectrum wide appeal elects Presidents on the Dem side, as Carter, Clinton and Obama have shown.

    I voted for Warren knowing she was fading. I did it partly because of an archaic belief that voting for who you think best is not only to make her the winner but to make her more powerful later. She and Sanders can help Biden get Dem proposals enacted, something ordinary Dems have a hard time doing if they are not pushed. I voted for the push.

Good post.

Another observation I've read, and that makes sense to me, is that this primary cycle is truly laying bare what a flawed candidate Hillary was in 2016.  A non-trivial portion of Bernie's support in 2016 can plausibly be explained by reasoning such as: "1) Trump is clearly a joke and can't possibly be elected, plus 2) Hillary has this thing wrapped up, but I don't personally like her, so I'm voting for Sanders as a "safe" protest vote."  The same  reasoning goes a long way to explaining the low turnout in the general election -- many voters just didn't take Trump seriously, and had a visceral dislike for Clinton, which together prompted them to stay on the couch on election day.

The fact that none of this reasoning applies in 2020 is a great cause for hope -- perhaps I'm nuts, but I am cautiously optimistic on the political front, for the first time in a long while.  All signs indicate that turn out relative to 2016 will be high -- no Democratic voter in 2020 is going to underestimate the profound threat of another Trump term, and any baggage Trump can dig up around Biden's past votes or Hunter's business dealings is trivial compared to all of the crap that's been spread about the Clintons over the years.  Realistically, the Democrats don't need to move the bar that far... Clinton beat Trump in the popular vote last time -- if they can just get a bit more unity and turnout in a few key states, I'd say their chances are excellent in the fall.  Trump certainly has done nothing to expand his appeal beyond his previous base.

And that base may start shrinking if the Coronavirus stays around for months.  If the US experience mirrors what we're seeing in Italy and other places, it may even be possible to see a legit electoral college landslide... crises like this provide a very clear test of leadership, and a public health crisis is much less amendable to Fox News-style distortion than most other political stories.  The current administration response is clearly failing that test --  and I take no pleasure in saying that, for obvious humanitarian reasons -- but as a political matter, over the past month or so I think Trump's chances of re-election have been getting measurably smaller every single day...

[71 dB]

She and Sanders can help Biden get Dem proposals enacted, something ordinary Dems have a hard time doing if they are not pushed.

Which Dem proposals? Those range from good to bad. More war? Tax cuts for the rich? Wall Street bailouts? New Green Deal? Medicare for All? It depends on the proposal whether I wish to have it enacted or not.

[Karl Henning]

1. Sure, and you can stop reading my post anytime...

2. Turnout in the general is different from turnout in the primaries. Also, Biden has been benefitting from limited exposure to hide his cognitive decline. GOP/Trump make it so that this is not the case in the general. A lot of Biden supporters might be clueless now (because they don't follow politics and what they hear is corporate media propaganda), but by November they perhaps better educated about the problems of Biden from cognitive decline to his politicies which are NOT even close to as good as people seem to think. Black people support him because he was Obama's VP without realizing Obama picked him to get WHITE VOTE!! So ironic! 

You understand nothing, and I doubt you are capable of learning. So ironic!

[Karl Henning]

Which Dem proposals? Those range from good to bad. More war? Tax cuts for the rich? Wall Street bailouts? New Green Deal? Medicare for All? It depends on the proposal whether I wish to have it enacted or not.

"More war" is a "Dem proposal"? Why are you so determined to be cartoonish?

[71 dB]

You understand nothing, and I doubt you are capable of learning. So ironic!

If you think I understand nothing then DON'T expect me to understand anything. Are you like this to all people with lower IQ?

[Karl Henning]

Good post.

Another observation I've read, and that makes sense to me, is that this primary cycle is truly laying bare what a flawed candidate Hillary was in 2016.  A non-trivial portion of Bernie's support in 2016 can plausibly be explained by reasoning such as: "1) Trump is clearly a joke and can't possibly be elected, plus 2) Hillary has this thing wrapped up, but I don't personally like her, so I'm voting for Sanders as a "safe" protest vote."  The same  reasoning goes a long way to explaining the low turnout in the general election -- many voters just didn't take Trump seriously, and had a visceral dislike for Clinton, which together prompted them to stay on the couch on election day.

The fact that none of this reasoning applies in 2020 is a great cause for hope -- perhaps I'm nuts, but I am cautiously optimistic on the political front, for the first time in a long while.  All signs indicate that turn out relative to 2016 will be high -- no Democratic voter in 2020 is going to underestimate the profound threat of another Trump term, and any baggage Trump can dig up around Biden's past votes or Hunter's business dealings is trivial compared to all of the crap that's been spread about the Clintons over the years.  Realistically, the Democrats don't need to move the bar that far... Clinton beat Trump in the popular vote last time -- if they can just get a bit more unity and turnout in a few key states, I'd say their chances are excellent in the fall.  Trump certainly has done nothing to expand his appeal beyond his previous base.

And that base may start shrinking if the Coronavirus stays around for months.  If the US experience mirrors what we're seeing in Italy and other places, it may even be possible to see a legit electoral college landslide... crises like this provide a very clear test of leadership, and a public health crisis is much less amendable to Fox News-style distortion than most other political stories.  The current administration response is clearly failing that test --  and I take no pleasure in saying that, for obvious humanitarian reasons -- but as a political matter, over the past month or so I think Trump's chances of re-election have been getting measurably smaller every single day...

Yes, cautious optimism is rational here!

[SimonNZ]

Good post.

Another observation I've read, and that makes sense to me, is that this primary cycle is truly laying bare what a flawed candidate Hillary was in 2016.  A non-trivial portion of Bernie's support in 2016 can plausibly be explained by reasoning such as: "1) Trump is clearly a joke and can't possibly be elected, plus 2) Hillary has this thing wrapped up, but I don't personally like her, so I'm voting for Sanders as a "safe" protest vote."  The same  reasoning goes a long way to explaining the low turnout in the general election -- many voters just didn't take Trump seriously, and had a visceral dislike for Clinton, which together prompted them to stay on the couch on election day.

The fact that none of this reasoning applies in 2020 is a great cause for hope -- perhaps I'm nuts, but I am cautiously optimistic on the political front, for the first time in a long while.  All signs indicate that turn out relative to 2016 will be high -- no Democratic voter in 2020 is going to underestimate the profound threat of another Trump term, and any baggage Trump can dig up around Biden's past votes or Hunter's business dealings is trivial compared to all of the crap that's been spread about the Clintons over the years.  Realistically, the Democrats don't need to move the bar that far... Clinton beat Trump in the popular vote last time -- if they can just get a bit more unity and turnout in a few key states, I'd say their chances are excellent in the fall.  Trump certainly has done nothing to expand his appeal beyond his previous base.

And that base may start shrinking if the Coronavirus stays around for months.  If the US experience mirrors what we're seeing in Italy and other places, it may even be possible to see a legit electoral college landslide... crises like this provide a very clear test of leadership, and a public health crisis is much less amendable to Fox News-style distortion than most other political stories.  The current administration response is clearly failing that test --  and I take no pleasure in saying that, for obvious humanitarian reasons -- but as a political matter, over the past month or so I think Trump's chances of re-election have been getting measurably smaller every single day...

As long as the effects of the coronavirus don't last so long that Trump can use it as an excuse to "delay" the election.

[71 dB]

Don't you people see anything good about Bernie? All his policies are crap? He wants less war, you want more war? Tax money used to kill people instead of used to healthcare? I can understand if you have some issues with Bernie, but you seem to hate him and everybody who supports him.

[j winter]

As long as the effects of the coronavirus don't last so long that Trump can use it as an excuse to "delay" the election.

Stop that!  I was in my happy place!   

[Karl Henning]

Don't you people see anything good about Bernie? All his policies are crap? He wants less war, you want more war? Tax money used to kill people instead of used to healthcare? I can understand if you have some issues with Bernie, but you seem to hate him and everybody who supports him.

Nobody here hates Bernie, for mercy's sake.  Don't be a baby!

[Karl Henning]

Are Democrats now hopelessly polarized between Biden supporters and Sanders supporters? Not exactly.  When asked, "Would you be satisfied if Biden wins the Democratic nomination?" 71 percent of Michigan Democratic voters said "Yes." When asked, "Would you be satisfied if Sanders wins the Democratic nomination?" 65 percent said "Yes."

[SimonNZ]

Do candidates ever announce their potential running mate/VP before the conventions?

[Ratliff]

Do candidates ever announce their potential running mate/VP before the conventions?

John McCain announced his choice of Sarah Palin shortly before the Republican convention began, before he was officially nominated. By then he had enough delegates to guarantee an uncontested nomination. I can't think of anyone having announced a planned running mate before their nomination was effectively guaranteed.

[SimonNZ]

John McCain announced his choice of Sarah Palin shortly before the Republican convention began, before he was officially nominated. By then he had enough delegates to guarantee an uncontested nomination. I can't think of anyone having announced a planned running mate before their nomination was effectively guaranteed.

Interesting. I was wondering if its a more relevant factor that should be addressed sooner rather than later as both septugenarians have issues in addition to age - Sanders heart attack and Bidens perceived by some mental decline - that give a higher than usual chance that the running mate will take over as president. But I haven't read anyone pushing to know, and to make that a factor in their decision.